Group 1 - The core issue in the US-UK trade negotiations is the disagreement over "non-tariff barriers," particularly regarding the adoption of US standards and recognition of US certification bodies by the UK [1][4] - The US has intensified pressure on the UK to align with its standards, which could jeopardize the UK's food industry and its cooperation with the EU [1][4] - The UK government has classified food standards as a "red line" in negotiations, but there are concerns that the UK may concede on other US demands [1][4] Group 2 - The US and UK signed the "Technology Prosperity Agreement" in September, aimed at enhancing cooperation in AI, quantum computing, and civil nuclear energy, but the agreement has been paused due to ongoing trade barrier disputes [1][4] - The UK's current certification model, managed by a single non-profit body (UKAS), differs significantly from the decentralized US system, which could lead to competitive pressures and potential compromises on public service obligations [4][5] - The UK is seeking to strengthen trade relations with the EU, which may reduce the likelihood of accepting US conditions in the ongoing trade negotiations [5]

农业咨询机构AgRural1月19日表示，截至上周四（1月15日），巴西2025/26年度大豆收割率为2%，较 前一周增长1.4个百分点，并略高于去年同期的1.7%。 （文章来源：新华财经） ...

（文章来源：新华财经） 巴西农业咨询机构Safras预计，巴西2026年大豆出口量将达到1.05亿吨。 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The Guosheng Fundamental High-Frequency Index is stable, with a current value of 129.5 points (previous value: 129.4 points), and a week-on-week increase of 6.1 points. The long-short signal factor for interest rate bonds is 3.2% (previous value: 3.1%) [1][9]. - Industrial production maintains stable growth, with the industrial production high-frequency index at 128.0, and a week-on-week increase of 4.8 points, the same as the previous period [1][9]. - In terms of total demand, the decline in the high-frequency index of commercial housing sales has widened, the growth rate of the high-frequency index of infrastructure investment has narrowed, the decline in the high-frequency index of exports has expanded, and the growth rate of the high-frequency index of consumption remains unchanged [1][9]. - In terms of prices, the month-on-month forecast of CPI is 0.1% (previous value: 0.1%); the month-on-month forecast of PPI is -0.1% (previous value: -0.1%) [1][9]. - The high-frequency index of inventory, transportation, and financing has increased, with the growth rate expanding [2][10]. Summary by Directory Total Index - The Guosheng Fundamental High-Frequency Index is stable, with a current value of 129.5 points (previous value: 129.4 points), and a week-on-week increase of 6.1 points. The long-short signal factor for interest rate bonds is 3.2% (previous value: 3.1%) [1][9] Production - The electric furnace operating rate has increased to 63.5% (previous value: 61.9%); the polyester operating rate is 87.2% (previous value: 87.5%); the semi-steel tire operating rate is 73.4% (previous value: 65.9%); the all-steel tire operating rate is 62.9% (previous value: 58.0%); the PX operating rate is 90.5% (previous value: 89.1%) [16] Real Estate Sales - The transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium-sized cities has slightly increased, reaching 18.5 million square meters (previous value: 16.9 million square meters); the land premium rate of 100 large and medium-sized cities is 1.4% (previous value: 0.4%) [29] Infrastructure Investment - The operating rate of petroleum asphalt has slightly increased to 27.2% (previous value: 25.4%) [42] Exports - The RJ/CRB index has increased to 304.3 points (previous value: 301.8 points) [45] Consumption - The average daily movie box office has decreased to 45.777 million yuan (previous value: 53.561 million yuan) [54] CPI - The average wholesale price of pork is 18.0 yuan/kg (previous value: 17.9 yuan/kg); the average wholesale price of 28 key monitored vegetables is 5.5 yuan/kg (previous value: 5.6 yuan/kg); the average wholesale price of 7 key monitored fruits is 7.9 yuan/kg (previous value: 7.8 yuan/kg); the average wholesale price of white-striped chickens is 17.7 yuan/kg (previous value: 17.7 yuan/kg) [61] PPI - The ex - warehouse price of steam coal at Qinhuangdao Port (produced in Shanxi) is 699.6 yuan/ton (previous value: 690.7 yuan/ton); the futures settlement price of Brent crude oil is 64.8 US dollars/barrel (previous value: 61.6 US dollars/barrel); the spot settlement price of LME copper is 13,232.0 US dollars/ton (previous value: 13,048.7 US dollars/ton); the spot settlement price of LME aluminum is 3,184.3 US dollars/ton (previous value: 3,093.7 US dollars/ton) [65] Transportation - The subway passenger volume in first-tier cities is 39.161 million person - times (previous value: 40.448 million person - times); the road logistics freight rate index is 1052.3 points (previous value: 1051.9 points); the number of domestic flights is 12,736.9 (previous value: 12,494.3) [79] Inventory - The soda ash inventory has slightly increased to 1.57 million tons (previous value: 1.541 million tons) [90] Financing - The net financing of local government bonds is 65.57 billion yuan (previous value: 117.66 billion yuan); the net financing of credit bonds is 39.99 billion yuan (previous value: 131.04 billion yuan) [101]

研究所 农产品研发报告 农产品日报 2024 年 01 月 19 日 研究员：刘倩楠 期货从业证号： F3013727 投资咨询证号： Z0014425 联系方式： 研究所 农产品研发报告 第二部分 市场消息及观点 :liuqiannan_qh@chinas tock.com.cn 苹果日报 第一部分 市场信息 | 现货价格 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 指标 | 今日价格 | 下一工作日似 | 涨跌 | 指标 | 今日价格 | 下一工作日似 | 涨跌 | | 成 | | | | | | あ | | | 富士苹果价格指数 | 109.79 | 109.13 | 0.66 | 洛川半商品纸袋70 | 4.20 | 4.20 | 0.00 | | 栖霞 一、二级纸袋 80 | 4.10 | 4.10 | 0.00 | 沂源纸袋70 | 2.50 | 2.50 | 0.00 | | 蓬莱 一、二级纸袋 80 | 4.25 | 4.25 | 0.00 | 6种水果平均批发价 | 7.94 | 7.84 | 0.1 ...

Group 1 - China reduced its holdings of US Treasury bonds by $6.1 billion in November, bringing the total to approximately $680 billion, while global holdings reached a record high of over $9.36 trillion [1][8] - The reduction in US Treasury holdings by China is a strategic adjustment focused on foreign exchange reserve security and long-term planning, rather than an emotional reaction or a complete economic decoupling from the US [1][4] - China's foreign exchange reserves are intended to support economic security, emphasizing stability and diversification rather than seeking short-term high returns [4][6] Group 2 - The US debt has surpassed $30 trillion, with interest payments consuming significant fiscal resources, leading to concerns about the sustainability of holding excessive US debt due to increased uncertainty [4][6] - The use of the dollar as a geopolitical tool by the US has prompted countries, including China, to reduce their reliance on dollar-denominated assets to mitigate financial risks [6][31] - China has been increasing its gold reserves, reaching 7.415 million ounces by the end of December 2025, as part of a strategy to enhance the resilience of its foreign exchange reserves [6][8] Group 3 - Japan increased its US Treasury holdings by $2.6 billion to $1.2 trillion, driven by currency management, yield supplementation, and strategic considerations related to US military presence [12] - The UK also increased its holdings by $10.6 billion to $888.5 billion, focusing on maintaining its financial center status and risk hedging [14][16] - Other countries like Canada and Norway have increased their US Treasury holdings for short-term liquidity management and strategic balance, reflecting diverse motivations behind these decisions [16][18] Group 4 - The ongoing reduction of US Treasury holdings by China has sparked political reactions in the US, particularly from figures like Navarro, who express concerns over the implications for US financial stability [22][24] - The US agricultural sector's dependence on China for soybean exports highlights the potential economic repercussions of trade threats, suggesting that such measures may harm US interests more than intended [26][28] - The global increase in US Treasury holdings, while appearing as an endorsement of the dollar, reflects a lack of alternatives in the current economic landscape, with countries exploring diversified asset allocations as a challenge to US financial dominance [31][33]

Core Viewpoint - The event "Hubei Agricultural Products Brand Promotion and Exhibition" will take place in Guangzhou from January 24 to 26, showcasing 25 high-quality agricultural products from Hubei, aiming to enhance agricultural collaboration between Hubei and Guangdong [2][3][22]. Group 1: Event Overview - The event will feature a one-stop experience for consumers to enjoy Hubei's culinary offerings without traveling to Hubei [2][6]. - It will include various activities such as product displays, cultural performances, and interactive tasting sessions, creating a vibrant atmosphere for attendees [4][14]. - The event aims to cater to the taste preferences of the Greater Bay Area residents with a diverse range of products [11][26]. Group 2: Featured Products - A total of 25 brands will be represented, covering nine major public brands from Hubei, including products like lotus root, shrimp, and Wuchang fish [7][8]. - Specific highlights include the freshness of Poyang Lake shrimp, the sweetness of Zhi Gui oranges, and the richness of Xiangyang beef noodles [9][10]. Group 3: Cultural and Community Engagement - The event will also feature traditional performances such as the Enshi hand-waving dance and Huangmei opera, enhancing cultural exchange between northern and southern China [17][22]. - Community engagement will be emphasized with local residents able to sample products and participate in interactive activities [15][19]. Group 4: Business and Economic Impact - The event serves as a platform for deepening agricultural collaboration between Hubei and Guangdong, facilitating direct communication between local businesses and agricultural producers [22][25]. - It aims to promote the efficient connection of agricultural products from Hubei to the consumer market in the Greater Bay Area, supporting high-quality agricultural development in Hubei [26][28].

一、中加经贸互利共赢，合作潜力巨大 中加两国经济互补性强，合作潜力巨大。中国作为全球第二大经济体，拥有庞大的市场和完善的产业 链，而加拿大则以其丰富的自然资源、先进的科技实力和优质的教育资源著称。《中国—加拿大经贸合 作路线图》的签署，正是基于双方对互利共赢原则的深刻认同。该路线图系统构建了双方在经贸联委会 机制、双边经贸关系、农业食品和粮食安全、绿色与可持续贸易等八大领域的合作格局，提出了28条具 体合作举措，涵盖了传统与新兴多个领域，为两国经贸合作的全面拓展提供了有力支撑。不仅促进了双 方资源的优化配置，也为两国企业带来了更多的市场机遇和发展空间。 二、中加经贸联委会合作机制升级 2026年1月14日至17日，加拿大总理卡尼对中国进行正式访问。这是加拿大总理8年来首次访华。访问期 间，双方就深化经贸合作达成广泛共识，并签署了《中国—加拿大经贸合作路线图》，标志着中加关系 迈入了一个新的发展阶段。在全球经济不确定性加强的大背景下，中国与加拿大作为重要经济体，其经 贸合作不仅关乎两国自身的经济发展，也对全球经济的稳定与繁荣产生深远影响。 在农产品贸易领域，中加双方的合作同样展现出巨大的潜力。加拿大作为农业大国 ...

Group 1 - Canada will no longer impose a 100% additional tariff on electric vehicles from China, instead applying a 6.1% most-favored-nation tariff on a limited number of imported vehicles, signaling a restoration of trade relations with China [1][3] - The new quota system aims to maximize bilateral cooperation and significantly reduce car purchase costs for Canadian citizens, while also encouraging substantial Chinese investment in Canada's automotive industry over the next three years [3][5] - Canadian farmers are expected to benefit from reduced tariffs on canola seeds, which will drop to approximately 15% by March 2026, and other agricultural products will no longer be subject to Chinese countermeasures starting in March [3][5] Group 2 - The visit of Canadian Prime Minister Carney to China is viewed as a crucial step in recalibrating Canada-China relations, with the signing of the "China-Canada Economic and Trade Cooperation Roadmap" providing a framework for future cooperation [5] - The U.S. has expressed concerns regarding Canada's decision to reduce tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles, indicating potential strategic implications for North American security and economic stability [5][7] - Many countries globally are moving towards diversifying their partnerships to mitigate risks, with China emerging as a significant partner due to its large and stable market and commitment to mutually beneficial cooperation [7]

| 油脂产业期现日报 F B | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 【2011】1292号 2026年1月19日 王凌娃 Z0019938 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 员阳 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 马来棕榈油进口利润 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 1月16日 1月15日 涨跌 涨跌幅 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 江苏均价 8540 8460 80 0.95% 现价 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 期价 Y2605 8016 7938 78 0.98% | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 基差 Y2605 524 522 2 0.38% | | | | | | | | | | ...