Core Insights - The Central Government's document emphasizes the importance of agricultural modernization for China's overall modernization, highlighting the need to strengthen pig production capacity and promote dairy consumption [1] - The agricultural sector is expected to focus on technological empowerment and enhancing the resilience of the industry chain to support high-quality agricultural development [1] Group 1: Agricultural Policy and Market Trends - The Central Government's document outlines key strategies for agricultural modernization, including stabilizing grain production at around 1.4 trillion jin and diversifying oilseed supply [1] - The average price of live pigs in China has dropped to 12.31 yuan per kilogram, with prices in Guangdong nearing 12 yuan, indicating a recovery in breeding sentiment due to positive farming profits [2] - The Ministry of Agriculture has shifted its focus from "ensuring supply and stabilizing prices" to "protecting farmers' rights and stimulating enterprise innovation," suggesting a new growth logic centered on technology and innovative models [2] Group 2: Agricultural Index and Investment Opportunities - As of January 30, 2026, the top ten weighted stocks in the CSI Agricultural Index account for 51.02% of the index, including companies like Salt Lake Co., Cangge Mining, and Yili Group [2] - The Agricultural ETF (516550) closely tracks the CSI Agricultural Index, providing a convenient tool for investors to gain exposure to the agricultural sector, which includes beverages, agricultural products, and animal health [2] - Investors without stock accounts can also access agricultural investment opportunities through the Agricultural ETF linked fund (019279) [3]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the content Core Views of the Report - The overall commodity market is affected by multiple factors such as geopolitical risks, supply - demand fundamentals, and macroeconomic conditions. Different commodities show various trends, including price fluctuations, supply - demand imbalances, and potential investment opportunities and risks [2][3][4] Summary by Commodity Categories Energy - **Crude Oil**: The prospect of US - Iran negotiations is uncertain. Current conflicts mainly involve sanctions and local military frictions, with the situation controllable. Oil prices are affected by both geopolitical factors and inventory pressure, and are expected to continue to fluctuate [2] - **Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Fuel oil follows the bearish sentiment of the crude - oil market. High - sulfur fuel oil has a relatively tight supply, while low - sulfur fuel oil faces continuous supply pressure. The high - sulfur > low - sulfur pattern may continue [21] - **Asphalt**: Supply pressure is limited. Consumption has improved year - on - year. The second - quarter refineries may face rising raw - material costs. Near - month contracts are supported by cost [22] Precious Metals - **Precious Metals**: Overnight, precious metals rebounded. The narrative of the US dollar credit crisis and global order reshaping remains unchanged, but it is currently mainly a capital game. Precious metals are in a high - level consolidation phase, and investors should wait for volatility to decline [3] Base Metals - **Copper**: US strategic metal stockpiling plans and industry suggestions for commercial discount stockpiling have attracted re - allocation in the copper market. Copper prices are likely to oscillate at high levels, but there is downward pressure around the Spring Festival [4] - **Aluminum**: Overnight, Shanghai aluminum fluctuated slightly. There is adjustment pressure around the Spring Festival due to weak fundamentals and large spot discounts [5] - **Zinc**: After the decline in Shanghai zinc, short - selling sentiment was released, but capital congestion remains high. Zinc is in a situation of weak supply and demand, with seasonal inventory - accumulation pressure during the Spring Festival. The price is expected to oscillate at a high level [7] - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: Shanghai nickel had a weak rebound, and stainless - steel downstream demand is weak. Spot prices are supported by low inventory and strong price - holding intentions of traders [9] - **Tin**: Overnight, LME tin recovered its previous decline. Some point - price buying emerged after the decline in tin prices. After closing the option strategy, investors should wait and see [10] Chemicals - **Carbonate Lithium**: Carbonate lithium rebounded sharply. The futures price is in a high - level oscillation, with high short - term uncertainty [11] - **Polysilicon**: Polysilicon prices rebounded. After the production cut by leading enterprises, the market expects a slight supply - demand gap in February. The price may test the previous high in the short term and may oscillate near the key level if the progress is less than expected [12] - **Industrial Silicon**: Industrial silicon continued to oscillate. The supply may be reduced due to planned production cuts by leading enterprises, and downstream demand is weak. The short - term price is expected to be slightly strong [13] Steel and Iron Ore - **Steel (Rebar & Hot - Rolled Coil)**: Steel prices oscillated at night. Rebar demand is in the off - season, while hot - rolled coil demand and production increased slightly. Overall demand is weak, and the price rebound is restricted [14] - **Iron Ore**: The iron - ore market oscillated. Supply increased slightly but was lower than last year. Demand is at a low level. The overall supply - demand is relatively loose, and the price is expected to oscillate in the short term [15] Coal - Related - **Coke**: Coke prices oscillated. Coking profits are average, and inventory increased slightly. The price is likely to oscillate within a range [16] - **Coking Coal**: Coking - coal prices oscillated. Total inventory increased significantly. The price is expected to oscillate within a range [17] Other Metals and Alloys - **Silicon Manganese**: The price corrected. Supply is in excess, and the price is affected by the "anti - involution" policy [18] - **Silicon Iron**: The price corrected. Supply changed little, and demand has some resilience. The price is affected by supply excess and policy [19] Shipping - **Container Shipping Index (Europe Line)**: The resumption of major Asia - Europe routes by leading shipping companies may put pressure on far - month contracts. The spot price may decline slightly before the Spring Festival and may be under pressure again after the festival. The 04 contract is expected to enter an oscillatory pattern [20] Agricultural Products - **Soybeans and Soybean Meal**: The soybean - meal inventory may decline after the Spring Festival. The short - term trend of US soybeans and Dalian soybean meal is expected to be weak and oscillatory [35] - **Edible Oils (Soybean Oil & Palm Oil)**: US policies are beneficial to North American raw - material demand. The prices of soybean and palm oils are affected by macro factors and are giving back the macro premium [36] - **Rapeseed and Rapeseed Oil**: The supply of rapeseed and rapeseed oil is expected to ease in the first quarter. The short - term trend is expected to be oscillatory [37] - **Soybean No.1**: Policy - led soybean auctions increased market supply. The price is affected by macro factors, and short - term policy and market sentiment should be monitored [38] - **Corn**: The overall corn - selling progress is close to 60%. The price is expected to be weak and oscillatory in the short term, and the post - festival market should be followed [39] - **Livestock and Poultry Products** - **Pigs**: Pig futures are weak. The short - term supply is increasing, and the long - term price is expected to have a low point in the first half of next year [40] - **Eggs**: Egg futures oscillated. The short - term spot price is weak, but there is upward - repair power in the first half of 2026. After the spot price reaches a low point around the Spring Festival, a long - position strategy for the first - half 2026 futures contracts can be considered [41] - **Cotton**: Zhengzhou cotton rose slightly. The short - term trend may be oscillatory. The domestic cotton market shows strong supply and demand. Spinning mills' raw - material demand is resilient, but downstream orders are average. Investors should wait and see for now [42] - **Sugar**: International sugar production varies by country. In China, the market focuses on the production - volume expectation gap. The short - term sugar price faces upward pressure [43] - **Apples**: Apple futures oscillated. The Spring Festival stocking peak has increased cold - storage sales. The market focuses on demand, and the de - stocking speed may be affected [44] - **Wood**: The wood - futures price is at a low level. Low inventory provides some support, and investors should wait and see [45] - **Paper Pulp**: Paper - pulp futures oscillated narrowly. Port inventory continued to increase, and demand support is weak. The price may continue to decline to find support [46] Financial Instruments - **Stock Index**: A - share indexes rose, and index - futures contracts also increased. The short - term market focuses on geopolitical and liquidity factors, and the performance of sectors with performance support should be monitored [47] - **Treasury Bonds**: Treasury - bond futures showed mixed trends. Unilateral trading may have limited short - term market movements, with a box - type oscillation. Opportunities in curve trading should be noted [48]

据欧盟委员会，截至2月1日，欧盟2025/26年软小麦出口量为1282万吨，而去年为1282万吨；欧盟 2025/26年大麦出口量为577万吨，而去年为284万吨。 中共中央、国务院发布关于锚定农业农村现代化扎实推进乡村全面振兴的意见。意见指出，加强农产品 市场监测预警和信息发布，统筹做好市场化收购和政策性收储，促进粮食等重要农产品价格保持在合理 水平。合理确定稻谷、小麦最低收购价，完善棉花目标价格政策。稳定实施耕地地力保护补贴、玉米大 豆生产者补贴和稻谷补贴政策。 美国农业部数据显示，截至2026年1月29日当周，美国小麦出口检验量为326828吨，前一周修正后为 378991吨，初值为351001吨。2025年1月30日当周，美国小麦出口检验量为253137吨。本作物年度迄 今，美国小麦出口检验量累计为16685581吨，上一年度同期14067849吨。美国小麦作物年度自6月1日开 始。 据外媒报道，周一，由于大宗商品市场大幅下挫，芝加哥期货交易所（CBOT）软红冬小麦期货收盘下 跌，基准期约收低2%。 市场资讯： ...

期 货 眼 ·日 迹 每日早盘观察 银河期货研究所 2026 年 2 月 4 日 0 / 46 研究所 期货眼·日迹 | | | | 蛋白粕：供应压力较大 | 盘面大幅下行 5 | | --- | --- | | 白糖：国际糖价大涨 | 国内糖价小幅上调 5 | | 油脂板块：美国 | 45z 拟议规则出台，带动油脂上涨较多 6 | | 玉米/玉米淀粉：北港现货偏弱，盘面偏弱震荡 7 | | | 生猪：出栏压力增加 | 现货整体下行 8 | | 花生：花生现货稳定，花生盘面窄幅震荡 9 | | | 鸡蛋：节前备货进入尾声 | 蛋价有所下跌 10 | | 苹果：节前走货尚可，苹果价格坚挺 11 | | | 棉花-棉纱：基本面变化不大 | 棉价有所支撑 12 | | 钢材：需求边际转弱，钢价跟随市场情绪延续震荡 13 | | --- | | 双焦：基本面权重降低，资金扰动加大 13 | | 铁矿：市场预期反复，矿价偏弱运行 14 | | 铁合金：恐慌情绪有所缓和，仍可作为多头配置 15 | | 金银：金银市场回暖，节前风控仍是主线 16 | | --- | | 铂钯：风险释放后行情企稳 贵金属谨慎参与低多机会 1 ...

Core Viewpoint - The National Bureau of Statistics reported on the price changes of important production materials in the circulation market for late January 2026, indicating that 25 products saw price increases, 21 experienced declines, and 4 remained stable compared to mid-January 2026 [1]. Group 1: Price Changes in Major Categories - In the black metal category, prices for rebar, wire rod, and ordinary medium plates decreased by 0.7%, 0.8%, and 0.3% respectively [3]. - In the non-ferrous metal category, electrolytic copper and aluminum ingots saw price drops of 0.9% and 0.3%, while zinc ingots increased by 0.6% [3]. - Chemical products like sulfuric acid and pure benzene experienced price increases of 1.3% and 7.7%, while caustic soda and methanol saw declines of 5.1% and 1.1% [3]. Group 2: Energy and Coal Prices - In the petroleum and natural gas sector, liquefied natural gas (LNG) prices rose by 4.2%, while liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) and diesel prices fell by 1.0% [3]. - Coal prices showed mixed results, with anthracite coal increasing by 0.3% and Shanxi mixed coal decreasing by 1.4% [3]. Group 3: Agricultural Products and Inputs - Among agricultural products, rice and wheat prices increased by 0.2% and 0.3%, while soybean prices rose by 0.4% [4]. - In agricultural production materials, potassium fertilizer prices increased by 0.6%, while pesticide prices rose by 0.8% [4]. - The price of natural rubber increased by 1.5%, while imported pulp prices decreased by 2.1% [4].

| | 油脂产业期现日报 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 【2011】1292号 | | | | | | 2026年2月4日 | | | | 王泽辉 | Z0019938 | | 甲海 | | | | | | | | | 2月3日 | 2月2日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | | 现价 | 江苏均价 | 8460 | 8510 | -50 | -0.59% | | 期价 | Y2605 | 8086 | 8092 | -6 | -0.07% | | 其美 | Y2605 | 374 | 418 | -44 | -10.53% | | 现货基差报价 | 江苏5月 | 05+380 | 05+390 | -10 | - | | 仓車 | | 26460 | 26460 | 0 | 0.00% | | 棕榈油 | | | | | | | | | 2月3日 | 2月2日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | | 现价 | 广东24度 | 9100 | 9020 | 80 | 0.89% | | 期价 | P2605 | 9094 | 9 ...

【行情分析】： 玉米：市场情绪些许扰动，本周港口报价走弱，但是产区价格提涨。短期看，在产地依旧挺价惜售的氛围下，虽然有储备轮储补充，但是供应 增量依旧受限。再加上当期渠道整体库存量不高，下游又有备货的预期的支撑下，玉米价格有望维持阶段性偏强的表现。中长期来看，需重点 关注结构变化，今年粮源依旧存在供应缺口的情况下，重点关注未来进口政策和国内拍储政策变化。 淀粉：深加工行业整体产销保持稳定，开机保持高位，下游季节性备货也使得去库加快。短期看，在节日备货预期和库存去化的背景下，支撑 企业报价维持偏强的态势。中长期需重点关注下游消费节奏变化，这将成为价格走势的关键支撑因素，季节性旺季过后，企业库存是否会持续 去化将成为未来淀粉定价的关键因素。 白糖 现货价格 基差 进口利润 仓单 日期 柳州 南宁 昆明 柳州基差 泰国 巴西 郑盘 2026/01/28 5330 5270 5155 143 195 372 14169 2026/01/29 5370 5320 5190 113 235 412 14208 2026/01/30 5380 5330 5190 132 363 540 14208 2026/02/02 5 ...

农产品早报 2026-02-04 五矿期货农产品早报 组长、生鲜品研究员 从业资格号：F0273729 交易咨询号：Z0002942 邮箱：wangja@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F03116327 交易咨询号：Z0019233 邮箱:yangzeyuan@wkqh.cn 王俊 周二郑州白糖期货价格下跌，郑糖 5 月合约收盘价报 5167 元/吨，较上个交易日下跌 40 元/吨，或 0.77%。 现货方面，广西制糖集团报价 5260-5340 元/吨，较上个交易日下跌 10 元/吨。 杨泽元 软商品、油脂油料研究员 StoneX 预计 2025/26 榨季全球食糖市场将维持供应过剩，预估过剩量为 290 万吨。印度全国糖业合作联 盟联合会(NFCSF)发布数据显示，2025/26 榨季截至 2026 年 1 月 31 日，印度食糖产量已达 1930.5 万吨， 同比增加 16.8%。据海关总署公布的数据显示，2025 年 12 月份我国进口食糖 58 万吨，同比增加 19 万 吨。2025 年我国累计进口食糖 492 万吨，同比增加 57 万吨。2025/26 榨季截至 12 月底我国累计进口食 糖 177 ...

交易咨询资格号： 证监许可[2012]112 晨会纪要 2026 年 2 月 4 日 联系人：王竣冬 期货从业资格：F3024685 交易咨询从业证书号：Z0013759 研究咨询电话： 0531-81678626 客服电话： 400-618-6767 公司网址： www.ztqh.com 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 [Table_QuotePic] 中泰微投研小程序 | 4 / 7 / 7 / 4 | | 卒」卒4日听刊 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 趋势空头 | 農荡偏空 | 農药 | 農荡偏多 | 趋势多头 | | | に | 橡胶 | 中证1000指数期货 | | | | 红枣 | 自糖 | 燃油 | | | | 铁矿石 | 多晶硅 | 三十债 | | | | 甲醇 | 棉纱 | 十债 | | | | РУС | 尿素 | 上证50股指期货 | | | | 塑料 | 棉花 | 二债 | | | | 生猪 | 胶版印刷纸 | 沪深300股指期货 | | | | 原油 | 玉米 | 五债 | | | | 液化石油气 | 乙二醇 | 沥青 | | | ...

Group 1 - The core issue revolves around the trade dispute between the US and India, with India's Modi government facing pressure from domestic farmers, leading to a refusal to open agricultural markets to the US, which escalated into a tariff war [1] - Recent developments indicate that Trump has reduced the "reciprocal" tariff rate on Indian goods from 25% to 18%, suggesting progress in US-India tariff negotiations, although it implies Modi's significant concessions [3] - Modi's agreement to purchase over $500 billion worth of US products, including energy and defense, while committing to reduce tariffs and non-tariff barriers to zero, highlights the extent of India's concessions to the US [3] Group 2 - Modi's shift in policy has angered Russia, as India is expected to reduce oil imports from Russia in favor of Venezuelan oil, which could disrupt diplomatic and security cooperation between India and Russia [5] - The signing of the US-India trade agreement may negatively impact India's relations with the EU, particularly in defense, as it could lead to increased US weaponry in India, undermining EU interests [6] - The potential backlash from domestic farmers against the opening of Indian markets to US agricultural products could lead to significant political repercussions for Modi, including protests and challenges from opposition parties [8]