Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Cotton maintains a relatively strong trend, and subsequent attention should be paid to the sixth round of China-US negotiations. The market trading is relatively dull, and the consumer end such as textile enterprises has a strong wait-and-see sentiment, and the replenishment has not been effectively started [1]. - The total sugar production (before ethanol diversion) in the 2025/26 sugar season is expected to be 32.409 million tons; the ethanol diversion volume is expected to be 3.1 million tons; the net sugar production (after ethanol diversion) is expected to be 29.292 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 12%. Sugar is in a stage of bottom shock where the negatives are almost exhausted and the positives are yet to emerge [1][2]. Group 3: Summary According to the Related Catalog Cotton - From February 25 - 26, the public weight quotes of 3129B/3130B Xinjiang machine-picked cotton in inland warehouses in Shandong, Jiangsu and other places are concentrated at 17,000 - 17,300 yuan/ton; the public weight quotes of 3129B/3130B machine-picked cotton in southern Xinjiang supervision/delivery warehouses are mostly 16,415 - 16,600 yuan/ton, and the cotton price in northern Xinjiang warehouses is 100 - 200 yuan/ton higher than that in southern Xinjiang warehouses [1]. - Due to the significant increase in the cotton basis price quote, which is higher than the expectations of downstream textile mills and middlemen, coupled with the rising uncertainty of the Trump administration's tariff policy and the absence of the Xinjiang cotton target price policy, the market trading is relatively dull, and the consumer end such as textile enterprises has a strong wait-and-see sentiment, and the replenishment has not been effectively started [1]. Sugar - The Indian Sugar and Bioenergy Manufacturers Association (ISMA) released the third forecast data of sugar production in the 2025/26 sugar season on February 25. The total sugar production (before ethanol diversion) in this sugar season is expected to be 32.409 million tons; the ethanol diversion volume is expected to be 3.1 million tons; the net sugar production (after ethanol diversion) is expected to be 29.292 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 12% [1]. - The estimated cost of processing and paying taxes for Brazilian sugar within the quota is 3,839 yuan/ton, and the estimated cost of processing and paying taxes for Brazilian sugar outside the quota is 4,870 yuan/ton. Compared with the spot price of Rizhao white sugar, the estimated profit of processing and paying taxes for Brazilian sugar within the quota is 1,641 yuan/ton, and the estimated profit of processing and paying taxes for Brazilian sugar outside the quota is 610 yuan/ton [2]. - There are still doubts about the estimated sugar production in India, which determines how much sugar India can export. Sugar is generally in a stage of loose supply and demand. However, since the proportion of imported sugar in the first half of the year is not large, after the domestic market strengthens, the price difference between the domestic and foreign markets continues to widen. If the raw sugar does not rise substantially, the further upward space of domestic sugar will be suppressed [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The global corn supply-demand situation is generally loose in 2025/26, but the potential reduction in the US corn planting area in 26/27 may bring speculative themes. In China, corn production increased significantly in 2025/26, and the fast grain - selling progress helps reduce the spring listing pressure. The feed demand has short - term resilience but a pessimistic future trend, and the deep - processing industry has mixed performance. The downstream replenishment provides short - term support to the corn market, and it is expected to operate in a strong and volatile manner, but attention should be paid to factors such as the grain - selling rhythm after the temperature rise in the north, the scale of substitute grain imports, and policy auctions [1][34][35] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - Since February, the domestic corn market has generally risen. Futures declined significantly on the first trading day of the month and then fluctuated upwards. The upward trend accelerated on the 11th and broke through the technical resistance level. After the Spring Festival, the futures remained strong, but there were many upper shadows on the daily line, indicating increased divergence in the market. Spot prices were weak and volatile before the Spring Festival due to light trading, and rose after the festival following the strong futures. The strength of the corn market is mainly due to the low inventory levels of the middle and lower reaches, limited impact of import substitution, and the fast grain - selling progress at the grass - roots level [3] 3.2 International Corn Market Analysis 3.2.1 US Corn Balance Sheet is Loose, but the New - Season Area May Decline - In 2025/26, the US corn harvest area is 36.93 million hectares, with a yield of 11.68 tons per hectare and a total output of 432 million tons. The feed consumption is 157 million tons, food and processing demand is 177 million tons, exports are 81.28 million tons, and the year - end inventory is 54.024 million tons, with an inventory - to - sales ratio of 12.91%. The export sales are better than the same period last year. Due to the high CBOT soybean/corn price ratio, the new - season corn planting area is expected to decrease [6] 3.2.2 South American Production Continues to be Bumper, but Demand Growth Helps Reduce Inventory - In 2025/26, Brazil's corn output is expected to be 131 million tons, slightly lower than last year, with exports of 43 million tons, a decrease in carry - over inventory, and a lower inventory - to - consumption ratio. Argentina's output is expected to be 53 million tons, exports are 37 million tons, and the carry - over inventory is 5.88 million tons, a decrease from last year. Overall, the production in South America is generally stable, but the demand is good, leading to a decline in carry - over inventory and a lower inventory - to - consumption ratio [10] 3.2.3 Ukraine's Production Increases in a Recovery - Type Manner, and the Inventory - to - Consumption Ratio Rises - In 2025/26, Ukraine's corn output is expected to be 29 million tons, an increase of 2.2 million tons or 8% compared to last year. The final carry - over inventory is 1.648 million tons, a slight increase from last year, and the inventory - to - consumption ratio is 5.84%, a slight increase from previous years [12] 3.3 Domestic Corn Market Analysis 3.3.1 The Grain - Selling Progress Slows Down Due to the Long Holiday - In 2025/26, China's corn output is expected to reach 301 million tons, an increase of more than 6 million tons mainly due to the increase in yield. In February, the grain - selling progress slowed down due to the Spring Festival. As of February 25, the grain - selling progress in Northeast China was 67%, 3 percentage points lower than the same period last year; in North China, it was 66%, 6 percentage points lower; and the national progress was 66%, 4 percentage points lower. Currently, the remaining grain is relatively sufficient [15] 3.3.2 Feed Consumption is Expected to be Poor, and Deep - Processing Consumption is Generally Stable Year - on - Year - In 2025, the total output of the national industrial feed was 342.253 million tons, an increase of 8.6% compared to last year. For 2026, due to the re - entry of the pig - breeding industry into the loss range and the policy of promoting the orderly reduction of production capacity, as well as the poor performance of the egg - laying chicken industry, the feed consumption is expected to decline. In deep - processing, the corn consumption of the starch industry has decreased year - on - year due to poor processing profits, while the alcohol industry's consumption has increased significantly as it consumes low - quality corn. The total corn consumption of deep - processing enterprises is similar to that of last year [20][22] 3.3.3 The Substitution of Imported Grains and Wheat for Domestic Corn is Expected to Decrease - Since February, the price difference between domestic wheat and corn has been in a balanced state, and corn has a certain cost - performance advantage in the feed field. The proportion of corn in compound feed has been rising. With the stable growth of China's corn output, the demand for imported substitute grains has decreased, and the impact of imported substitutes is more phased and regional. In the short term, Australian barley arrived at ports in February, and the supply of substitute grains such as sorghum from the US, Australia, and Brazil will increase later [24] 3.3.4 Port Inventories are Still Low, and Enterprise Inventories have Declined - The inventory in the northern ports is rising but still at a relatively low level compared to the same period. The inventory in the southern ports is also at a low level, but it will be supplemented with the arrival of imported grains. The raw material inventories of deep - processing enterprises have returned to low levels and have a certain demand for replenishment. The raw material inventory days of feed enterprises are at a neutral level, and due to the poor profit of the breeding sector, the motivation for further large - scale replenishment is not strong [32]

豆粕仓单量 菜粕仓单量 豆油仓单量 仓单数量:菜粕(张) 仓单数量:豆粕(手) 仓单数量:豆油(手) - 2018 - 2018 2019 30000 - 2019 40000 40000 1 | 1 | 1 | 2020 2021 2022 25000 2023 30000 30000 - 2025 20000 15000 20000 20000 10000 [ 10000 10000 5000 06-30 12-31 05-02 12-31 03-02 06-30 12-31 01-03 03-02 05-02 11-02 03-02 06-30 08-28 01-03 08-28 08-28 01-03 11-02 05-02 11-02 资料来源:国泰君安期货,钢联、wind、同花顺 资料来源:国泰君安期货,钢联、wind、同花顺 资料来源:国泰君安期货,钢联、wind、同花顺 棕榈油仓单 菜籽油仓单 玉米仓单 仓单数量:棕榈油(手) 仓单数量:菜籽油(张) 仓单数量:玉米(手) 12000 - - 2018 - 2018 - 2019 -- 2019 30000 200000 = = 2022 | ...

Core Insights - The overall prices of grains and oils in Qingdao remain stable, while prices for live pigs, eggs, and vegetables have decreased [1] Grain Prices - The average price of first-grade long-grain rice is 3.23 yuan per 500 grams, unchanged from last week, up 0.62% from last month, and down 1.82% year-on-year [2] - The average price of special-grade flour is 2.36 yuan, stable compared to last week and last month, and down 1.67% year-on-year [2] - The average price of wheat is 1.22 yuan, stable week-on-week and month-on-month, with a year-on-year increase of 3.39% [2] - The average price of corn is 1.12 yuan, unchanged from last week and last month, with a year-on-year increase of 4.67% [2] Oil and Oilseed Prices - The average price of 5-liter bottled peanut oil is 120.53 yuan, stable week-on-week, down 0.44% month-on-month, and down 1.06% year-on-year [3] - The average price of 5-liter bottled soybean oil is 60.34 yuan, unchanged from last week, up 0.32% from last month, and down 0.23% year-on-year [3] - The average price of soybeans is 4.27 yuan, stable compared to last week and last month, and down 2.29% year-on-year [3] - The average price of peanuts is 7.52 yuan, stable week-on-week, up 1.90% month-on-month, and up 2.17% year-on-year [3] Live Pig Prices - The average price of live pigs is 5.93 yuan, down 2.15% from last week, down 12.02% from last month, and down 22.58% year-on-year [4] - The average price of pork belly is 14.68 yuan, down 0.61% week-on-week, up 3.16% month-on-month, and down 8.48% year-on-year [4] - The average price of lean pork is 15.04 yuan, down 0.27% week-on-week, up 1.69% month-on-month, and down 6.12% year-on-year [4] - The average price of beef is 38.33 yuan, down 0.23% week-on-week, up 1.94% month-on-month, and up 10.21% year-on-year [4] - The average price of lamb is 42.08 yuan, down 0.26% week-on-week, up 1.18% month-on-month, and down 2.59% year-on-year [4] Egg Prices - The average price of eggs is 3.83 yuan, down 4.49% from last week, down 9.88% from last month, and down 3.04% year-on-year [5] - The highest price recorded this week is 3.99 yuan, while the lowest is 3.61 yuan [5] Vegetable Prices - The average wholesale price of vegetables in major markets is 2.63 yuan, down 0.68% from last week, down 2.77% from last month, and up 7.44% year-on-year [6] - The average daily market supply of vegetables is 1,762,700 kilograms, down 8.44% from last week, down 1.91% from last month, and down 3.70% year-on-year [6] - The average retail price of 19 vegetable varieties is 4.97 yuan, down 0.40% from last week, down 0.60% from last month, and up 10.44% year-on-year [6] - Among the 19 vegetable varieties, 7 prices increased, 8 decreased, and 4 remained stable [6]

Group 1: Agricultural Products Market - The national edible agricultural product market price increased by 0.5% from the previous week [1] - The average wholesale price of 30 types of vegetables is 5.60 yuan per kilogram, up by 1.3%, with celery, lettuce, and cabbage rising by 5.7%, 5.0%, and 4.1% respectively [1] - The average wholesale price of 6 types of fruits saw a slight increase, with citrus, pears, and grapes rising by 1.0%, 1.0%, and 0.7% respectively [1] - Wholesale prices of aquatic products slightly increased, with large hairtail, silver carp, and carp rising by 1.2%, 0.7%, and 0.3% respectively [1] - The wholesale price of pork is 18.98 yuan per kilogram, up by 0.5%, while lamb and beef increased by 0.3% and 0.1% respectively [1] - Grain and oil wholesale prices remained stable, with soybean oil and rapeseed oil rising by 0.1%, while peanut oil and rice remained unchanged, and flour decreased by 0.2% [1] - Poultry product wholesale prices showed a slight decline, with white strip chicken remaining stable and eggs decreasing by 0.6% [1] Group 2: Production Materials Market - Prices of non-ferrous metals continued to decline, with copper, aluminum, and zinc decreasing by 1.1%, 0.3%, and 0.1% respectively [2] - Rubber prices slightly decreased, with synthetic rubber and natural rubber falling by 0.3% and 0.2% respectively [2] - Steel prices remained stable with slight declines, where ordinary medium plates and welded steel pipes were priced at 3620 yuan and 3708 yuan per ton, respectively, while hot-rolled strip steel and rebar decreased by 0.1% [2] - Coal prices remained stable, with thermal coal and coking coal priced at 777 yuan and 1043 yuan per ton, respectively, while anthracite coal decreased by 0.1% [2] - Prices of basic chemical raw materials remained stable, with sulfuric acid, soda ash, and polypropylene unchanged, while methanol decreased by 0.2% [2] - Wholesale prices of finished oil showed slight increases, with 95 gasoline and 0 diesel remaining stable, while 92 gasoline increased by 0.2% [2] - Fertilizer prices saw a slight increase, with urea rising by 0.3%, while compound fertilizers remained unchanged [2]

Investment Chain - The prices of non-ferrous metals have risen significantly since February 2026, with copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, tin, nickel, gold, and silver all experiencing price increases. However, fixed asset investment growth has declined, with real estate development investment down by 17.20% year-on-year and manufacturing fixed asset investment growth at only 0.60% [10][11] - In February 2026, the average price of ordinary cement decreased, while the prices of steel and light soda ash also fell. The sales growth of large and light buses declined, but the sales growth of medium-sized buses increased [10][11] Consumption Chain - In January 2026, the year-on-year growth rate of automobile sales showed a slight recovery, increasing to -3.18%. However, the consumer confidence index fell to 89.50 in December 2025, and retail sales growth for home appliances decreased by 14.25% [11][12] - The total retail sales of consumer goods in December 2025 saw a nominal year-on-year growth rate drop to 0.90%, with a cumulative decline of 3.70% [11][12] - Tourism revenue in Beijing increased by 11.40% year-on-year in December 2024, while tourism revenue in Hainan decreased by 20.03% in March 2024 [11][12] Export Chain - In December 2025, exports to Japan and ASEAN countries increased, while exports to the US and EU saw a decline. The export growth rate for electronic products rose to 37.25%, while textile exports fell by 4.23% [12][13] - The cumulative year-on-year growth rate for exports of refined oil, coke, steel, and aluminum increased, while the export amounts for agricultural products, toys, furniture, and other categories decreased [12][13] - The OECD leading indicator for the US rose to 100.50 in January 2026, indicating potential economic improvement [12][13] Price Chain - In February 2026, pork prices decreased to 12.75 yuan per kilogram, while oil prices increased, with WTI rising to 65.63 USD per barrel [13][14] - The price of PVC rose to 4770 yuan per ton, while the price of MDI fell to 13950 yuan per ton [13][14] - The price of cotton increased, and the price of white sugar decreased during the same period [13][14]

Investment Chain - Non-ferrous metal prices have risen since February 2026, with fixed asset investment growth in December 2025 declining to -3.80%[1] - Real estate development investment in December 2025 saw a year-on-year decline of 17.20%[1] - Manufacturing fixed asset investment growth in December 2025 decreased to 0.60%[1] - Infrastructure investment growth in December 2025 fell to -1.48%[1] Consumption Chain - In December 2025, the nominal year-on-year growth rate of social consumption fell to 0.90%, with a cumulative decline of 3.70%[2] - The consumer confidence index in December 2025 dropped to 89.50[2] - In January 2026, automobile sales saw a year-on-year growth rate increase to -3.18%[2] - Home appliance retail sales in December 2025 experienced a year-on-year decline of 14.25%[2] Export Chain - In December 2025, exports to Japan and ASEAN saw a year-on-year growth increase, while exports to the US and EU declined[3] - The export growth rate for electronic products in December 2025 rose to 37.25%[3] - Textile export value in December 2025 decreased by 4.23% year-on-year[3] - Mechanical export value in December 2025 increased by 6.60% year-on-year[3] Price Chain - As of February 2026, the price of pork decreased to 12.75 yuan/kg[4] - WTI crude oil price increased to $65.63 per barrel on February 24, 2026[4] - PVC spot price rose to 4770 yuan/ton on February 24, 2026[4] - The average price of coal in Qinhuangdao increased in February 2026[4]

Group 1: Investment Ratings - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. Group 2: Core Views - For corn, in the short - term, the downstream pre - holiday restocking will support the price, and the price will fluctuate without significant rise or fall before the Spring Festival. In the long - term, focus on import and domestic auction policies due to the supply gap [2]. - For starch, in the short - term, downstream holiday stocking and inventory reduction support the enterprise's strong quotation. In the long - term, the key factor for price is the change in downstream consumption rhythm [3]. - For sugar, in the international market, there is an expected increase in production in the 25/26 season. In the domestic market, the short - term supply pressure of raw sugar decreases, and the long - term price may move towards the out - of - quota import cost if the global sugar market surplus intensifies [4]. - For cotton, due to low initial inventory, good downstream profits, consumption - promotion policies, and expected decrease in Xinjiang's planting area, the demand is expected to improve, and it is suitable for long - term investment [6]. - For eggs, after the pre - holiday stocking ends, the spot price stops rising and turns down. The 05 contract price depends on farmers' chicken culling. If the price difference between culled chickens and white chickens shrinks, it can relieve the supply pressure in the second quarter [14]. - For apples, during the holiday, the inventory reduction in production areas accelerates, but the sales area shows no obvious improvement. The price of average - quality fruit farmers' goods is stable and weak, while good - quality goods remain stable [17]. - For pigs, the spot price is weak. During the pre - holiday period of increasing supply and demand, the inventory reduction pressure dominates. The futures price is easily affected by emotions, and factors like the slaughter rhythm, diseases, and policies should be monitored [17]. Group 3: Summary by Commodity Corn/Starch - **Price Data**: From February 12 to February 26, the price in Changchun remained at 2180, while prices in other regions had some changes. The import profit decreased by 12, and the starch processing profit in Heilongjiang remained unchanged, while in Weifang, the base difference increased by 15 [2]. Sugar - **Price Data**: From February 12 to February 26, the spot prices in Liuzhou, Nanning, and Kunming increased by 10, 20, and 20 respectively. The base difference decreased by 27, and the import profit from Thailand and Brazil increased by 72 and 71 respectively. The number of warehouse receipts increased by 771 [4]. Cotton/Cotton Yarn - **Price Data**: From February 12 to February 26, the price of 3128 cotton decreased by 15, the number of warehouse receipts + forecasts increased by 41, the spot price of cotton yarn increased by 50, the import profit of Vietnamese yarn decreased by 4, and the 32S spinning profit increased by 66 [6]. Eggs - **Price Data**: From February 12 to February 26, the prices in production areas remained unchanged, the base difference increased by 24, and the price of live pigs decreased by 0.09 [13]. Apples - **Price Data**: From February 12 to February 26, the spot prices of Shandong 80 first - and second - grade and Shaanxi 70 general - quality apples remained unchanged. The national inventory decreased by 33, and the inventories in Shandong and Shaanxi decreased by 50 each [16][17]. Pigs - **Price Data**: From February 12 to February 26, the prices in production areas increased to varying degrees, and the base difference increased by 170 [17].

1. Report Information - Reported Industry: Soybean Meal [1] - Report Date: February 27, 2026 [2] - Research Team: Agricultural Products Research Team, including Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, and Liu Youran [4] 2. Market Review 2.1 Futures Contract Quotes - For the Soybean Meal 2603 contract, the previous settlement price was 3064, the opening price was 3038, the highest price was 3050, the lowest price was 3021, the closing price was 3025, with a drop of 39 and a decline rate of -1.27%. The trading volume was 56,730, the open interest was 20,508, and the change in open interest was -45,241 [6]. - For the Soybean Meal 2605 contract, the previous settlement price was 2824, the opening price was 2825, the highest price was 2847, the lowest price was 2818, the closing price was 2834, with an increase of 10 and a growth rate of 0.35%. The trading volume was 828,719, the open interest was 2,021,035, and the change in open interest was 6,435 [6]. - For the Soybean Meal 2607 contract, the previous settlement price was 2776, the opening price was 2786, the highest price was 2800, the lowest price was 2776, the closing price was 2795, with an increase of 19 and a growth rate of 0.68%. The trading volume was 43,095, the open interest was 498,828, and the change in open interest was 880 [6]. 2.2 External Market Conditions - During the holiday, the US soybean futures contracts on the external market were strong first and then weak, with a relatively small overall fluctuation range. The main contract was close to 1150 cents. The US Supreme Court ruled that the tariffs imposed by Trump under the IEEPA were illegal. Currently, the IEEPA involves a total of 20% tariffs on China related to fentanyl and reciprocal tariffs, but Trump subsequently invoked Article 122 of the 1974 Trade Act to announce a 15% tariff instead. The holiday fluctuations in US soybeans were mainly due to the game of future export demand expectations caused by tariff changes. Trump once said that China would purchase an additional 8 million tons of US soybeans, and there was an expectation that the US President would visit China at the end of March or early April, and the bilateral economic and trade relations were expected to be repaired, making the market optimistic about export demand and having an expectation of a downward adjustment of US soybean ending stocks [6]. 2.3 Weather Conditions - During the holiday, the situation in South America was good. The main soybean - producing areas in Argentina received relatively considerable rainfall. Although the temperature was still slightly higher than the same period of previous years, it alleviated some of the growth pressure on crops in the early stage. In the next two weeks, rainfall would be mainly concentrated in early March, with rainfall close to the same period of previous years and normal temperature forecasts. It was expected that the soybean yield prospects in Argentina would be stable, and there was no bullish boost [6]. 2.4 Domestic Market Conditions - After the holiday, the domestic market fluctuated and then rose, also factoring in the expectation of Sino - US trade easing. In addition, the near - end spot was in a seasonal de - stocking cycle. The current harvesting progress in Brazil was relatively slow, and there were transportation problems at some docks. Coupled with the long - awaited release of information on imported soybean auctions, there was a possibility of partial shortages at the end of the first quarter or the beginning of the second quarter. In the longer term, the bumper harvest of Brazilian soybeans would always have a certain suppressing effect on the market. The near - end contracts might have a small rebound, but the subsequent room for growth was limited [6]. 3. Industry News - According to the USDA Annual Outlook Forum, the US soybean planting area in 2026 is expected to increase by 3.8 million acres to 85 million acres, which is in line with analysts' expectations. Based on a trend yield of 53 bushels per acre, the US soybean production in the next season will reach 4.45 billion bushels, a year - on - year increase of 4.4%. Total demand is expected to increase by 207 million bushels to 4.464 billion bushels, of which exports will increase by 125 million bushels to 1.7 billion bushels, and crushing will increase by 85 million bushels to 2.655 billion bushels. The ending stocks will be basically flat at 355 million bushels. The Chief Economist of the US Department of Agriculture warned that the production cost is expected to remain high, which will continue to squeeze the planting profit margin [7]. - US President Trump will visit China from March 31 to April 2, holding a highly anticipated meeting with China's top leaders. This visit will be the first face - to - face meeting between the two leaders since their meeting in South Korea last October, when they reached a trade truce agreement [15]. - According to BAGE, as of the week of February 18, rainfall occurred in the central and northern agricultural areas of Argentina. Although the distribution was uneven and the intensity varied, it significantly improved the moisture conditions of soybean crops. Currently, 75% of soybean crops are rated normal to good, higher than 68% a week ago and 68% in the same period last year; 66% of the planting areas have suitable to optimal moisture conditions, higher than 56% a week ago and 70% in the same period last year. The proportion of poorly rated soybeans is 25%, down from 32% a week ago and 32% in the same period last year [15]. 4. Data Overview - The data in the report is sourced from Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [11][12][13] - The report includes charts such as the ex - factory price of soybean meal, the basis of the Soybean Meal 05 contract, the 1 - 5 spread of soybean meal, the 5 - 9 spread of soybean meal, the US dollar - RMB central parity rate, and the US dollar - Brazilian real exchange rate [13][14][17]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings There is no information provided in the report regarding industry investment ratings. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index)**: The Chicago Fed President suggests that if inflation falls, the Fed may cut interest rates multiple times. The Iranian Foreign Minister claims progress in US - Iran negotiations, leading to a decline in market risk appetite and a lower US Dollar Index. The dollar index is expected to weaken in the short - term [1][12][13]. - **Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures)**: A - shares are in a volatile consolidation phase with increasing trading volume. The spring rally is likely not over. Concerns about the overseas AI bubble are deepening, increasing short - term correction pressure on technology stocks, but they are still optimistic in the medium - term [2][16]. - **Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures)**: The central bank conducted 320.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations. Stabilizing real estate policies are temporary disturbances. Before other negative factors emerge, the bond market is unlikely to fall continuously. However, potential risks such as the "Two Sessions" and supply pressure in March still exist [3][18]. - **Black Metal (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil)**: Brazil imposed anti - dumping duties on Chinese galvanized and aluminized zinc - coated steel coils. The inventory of the five major steel products continued to increase significantly, and the fundamental pressure is prominent. The rebound in steel prices due to short - term real estate policies is expected to be limited [4][23]. - **Agricultural Products (Sugar)**: Brazil exported 1.3138 million tons of sugar and molasses in the first two weeks of February. India's sugar production estimate for this season was significantly reduced by 1.65 million tons to 29.3 million tons, which will support domestic prices, limit exports, and reduce the global sugar supply surplus [5][33]. - **Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate)**: Finland launched the first commercial spodumene mine in Europe. In the short - term, a bullish view is maintained, but the price may correct when supply increases in the medium - term [6][45]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Financial News and Comments 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - Chicago Fed President Goolsbee reiterates that if there is more evidence of inflation moving towards the Fed's 2% target, interest rates could be further cut in 2026. Fed Vice - Chair for Supervision Bowman says regulators will release a revised bank capital reform proposal by the end of March [11]. - The Iranian Foreign Minister claims progress in US - Iran negotiations, causing a decline in market risk appetite and a lower US Dollar Index. The dollar index is expected to weaken in the short - term [12][13]. 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - A - shares had a narrow - range consolidation. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.01% to 4146.63 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.19%, and the ChiNext Index fell 0.29%. The trading volume increased to 2.56 trillion yuan. AI - related stocks were affected by NVIDIA's earnings, and some sectors had significant movements [14]. - The spring rally is likely not over due to increasing trading volume. Concerns about the overseas AI bubble may lead to short - term corrections in technology stocks, but they are still promising in the medium - term. It is recommended to hold stock index long positions evenly [16]. 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank conducted 320.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations on February 26, with a net withdrawal of 7.95 billion yuan [17]. - Stabilizing real estate policies are temporary disturbances. The bond market is unlikely to fall continuously in the short - term, but potential risks such as the "Two Sessions" and supply pressure in March exist. The bond market is expected to be volatile in the short - term and face adjustment risks in the long - term [18][19]. 3.2 Commodity News and Comments 3.2.1 Black Metal (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - Brazil imposed a 5 - year anti - dumping duty of 284.98 - 709.63 US dollars per ton on Chinese galvanized and aluminized zinc - coated steel coils. South Korea made a final anti - dumping ruling on hot - rolled coils from China and Japan, with some Chinese enterprises accepting price commitments [20][21]. - The inventory of the five major steel products increased by 1.3427 million tons to 18.4611 million tons in the week ending February 26. The inventory of coils exceeded last year's peak. The market is expected to be in a weak and volatile pattern, and short - term steel price rebounds are limited [23][24]. 3.2.2 Black Metal (Coking Coal/Coke) - The coking coal price in the Changzhi market was weakly stable. After the Spring Festival, coal supply increased as mines resumed production, but demand remained weak. The market is expected to remain volatile in the short - term [25][26]. 3.2.3 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - The US weekly soybean export sales net increased by 407,100 tons in the week ending February 19, down 49% from the previous week and 30% from the four - week average, and was at the lower end of the market forecast range [27]. - The US government's biofuel policy may benefit soybean crushing, but actual export data is disappointing. Domestically, the price of imported soybeans has risen, but soybean meal supply is sufficient. It is recommended to maintain the view of price volatility and pay attention to China's soybean procurement, customs policies, and reserve policies [29]. 3.2.4 Agricultural Products (Sugar) - Brazil exported 1.3138 million tons of sugar and molasses in the first two weeks of February, with a daily average export volume 44% higher than that in February last year. The sugar production estimate in India for this season was reduced by 1.65 million tons to 29.3 million tons [30][32]. - The reduction in Indian sugar production will support domestic prices, limit exports, and reduce the global sugar supply surplus. The Brazilian sugar production in the new season will have a greater impact on the international sugar market. The Zhengzhou sugar futures are expected to be in a low - level volatile pattern [33][34]. 3.2.5 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - From February 1 - 25, Malaysia's palm oil production decreased by 16.25% month - on - month [35]. - The oil market showed a differentiated trend. Soybean oil was affected by the US biofuel policy and trended strongly. The market is pessimistic about Malaysia's palm oil exports in February. It is expected that the palm oil price will continue to test the bottom, and attention should be paid to the final US biofuel policy in March [36][37]. 3.2.6 Agricultural Products (Corn) - As of February 26, the average inventory of feed enterprises across the country was 31.29 days, a decrease of 0.96 days from the previous week, a month - on - month decline of 2.98%, and a year - on - year decline of 2.43% [38]. - The corn futures price was volatile. The slowdown in grain sales during the Spring Festival, low port inventory, and downstream replenishment demand support the price. However, the price increase may be limited by downstream acceptance and potential policy grain releases. The price is expected to be volatile and slightly upward, but the 05 contract may face a technical correction [38]. 3.2.7 Agricultural Products (Pigs) - Tangrenshen expects to gradually reduce the proportion of外购仔猪 (purchased piglets) in 2026 and strive to reduce the full - cost of fattening pigs to about 12.6 yuan per kilogram. Wens Co., Ltd. plans to repurchase shares worth 800 million - 1.2 billion yuan [39][41]. - The current slaughter volume is low, and the supply pressure remains. The short - term spot price is expected to be weak. The near - month futures contracts face basis - repair pressure, while the far - month contracts may rebound after over - falling. It is recommended to wait for opportunities to go long on the far - month contracts after the negative factors are exhausted [41][42]. 3.2.8 Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - Finland launched the first commercial spodumene mine in Europe, with a lithium concentrate production capacity equivalent to about 15,000 tons of lithium hydroxide. Core Lithium reached a fixed - price agreement with Glencore to sell about 5,100 dry tons of spodumene concentrate [43][44]. - In the short - term, a bullish view on lithium carbonate is maintained, but the price may correct when supply increases in the medium - term [45]. 3.2.9 Non - ferrous Metals (Lead) - On February 25, the LME 0 - 3 lead was at a discount of 46.37 US dollars per ton, and the social inventory of lead ingots in five places increased by 3,100 tons [46]. - The Shanghai lead futures were in a low - level volatile pattern. The lead market is in a state of weak supply and demand, and the price is supported by the cost of recycled smelters. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term and consider long positions in the medium - term [46][47]. 3.2.10 Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc) - On February 25, the LME 0 - 3 zinc was at a discount of 29.64 US dollars per ton. As of February 26, the social inventory of zinc ingots in seven places increased by 10,200 tons [48][49]. - The zinc price was volatile. The LME inventory decreased, and the domestic social inventory increased. The downstream start - up was slow. It is recommended to adopt a bullish approach and continue to hold call options, while being vigilant about tariff risks [49]. 3.2.11 Non - ferrous Metals (Copper) - Mexico's mining safety risk has increased significantly, and Japan's copper and copper alloy imports in January increased by 13.51% year - on - year. The core leadership of Congo (Kinshasa)'s state - owned mining company has been replaced [50][51][52]. - The copper price is affected by the Middle East geopolitical situation and domestic policies. The domestic and overseas inventories are increasing, which restricts the price increase. It is recommended to pay attention to opportunities to go long on dips [52][53]. 3.2.12 Non - ferrous Metals (Tin) - On February 25, the LME 0 - 3 tin was at a premium of 20 US dollars per ton. The Shanghai Futures Exchange's tin futures warehouse receipts decreased by 182 tons on February 26 [54]. - The supply of tin ore may gradually ease in the short - term but is expected to be restricted in the long - term. The price is expected to be in a strong and wide - range volatile pattern, and attention should be paid to the recovery of tin ore imports from Myanmar and post - holiday consumption [54][55]. 3.2.13 Energy Chemical (Liquefied Petroleum Gas) - As of February 20, the US propane/propylene output was about 2,862 thousand barrels per day, the inventory was 725 million barrels, a decrease of 17 million barrels from the previous week, and the consumption decreased from 1,472 thousand barrels per day to 1,343 thousand barrels per day [56]. - The LPG price is expected to be strong. The domestic spot market is tepid, and the inventory is higher than last year, with a weaker destocking slope [56][57]. 3.2.14 Energy Chemical (Carbon Emissions) - On February 26, the closing price of CEA in the national carbon emissions trading market was 81 yuan per ton, the same as the previous day. The trading volume of the listing agreement was 30,000 tons, and the trading volume of the bulk agreement was 400,000 tons [58]. - The carbon market is in a policy window period. The trading price fluctuates greatly, but the price center is stable. The trading activity has cooled down, and it is recommended that enterprises with demand consider buying on dips [58][59]. 3.2.15 Shipping Index (Container Freight Rate) - An accident in the Port of Livorno, Italy, led to a 24 - hour port - wide strike, paralyzing container operations and causing a backlog of goods [60]. - The container freight rate is expected to decline in March. It is recommended to pay attention to opportunities to short the 04 contract on rallies [61][62].