Core Viewpoint - The article highlights how Guangdong enterprises, particularly in the steel and rubber industries, are leveraging futures tools to navigate market uncertainties and enhance operational stability, showcasing a shift from traditional business models to more innovative financial strategies [1][5]. Group 1: Application of Futures Tools - Guangdong enterprises, such as Kaifa Company and Guangken Rubber Group, have successfully adopted futures tools to mitigate risks associated with price volatility and inventory management, transforming their operational strategies [2][3][5]. - Kaifa Company, facing challenges like inventory devaluation and order shrinkage, began utilizing futures markets over a decade ago, allowing them to lock in raw material costs and manage stock effectively [2][3]. - Guangken Rubber Group has developed a differentiated futures strategy that combines production and trading, enabling them to hedge against price fluctuations and optimize their inventory management [4][5]. Group 2: Industry Trends and Data - Since 2025, futures companies in Guangdong have provided hedging services to 6,596 enterprises, with a total transaction volume of 36.635 million contracts and a transaction value of 1.9 trillion yuan, demonstrating the growing reliance on futures for risk management [5]. - The article notes a significant shift in Guangdong's industrial structure, moving from labor-intensive manufacturing to high-tech, high-value-added industries, which has increased the demand for sophisticated risk management tools [10][14]. Group 3: Regional Characteristics and Service Models - Guangdong's unique geographical and cultural characteristics, along with its strong industrial clusters, have fostered a differentiated service model among local futures companies, which tailor their offerings to meet the specific needs of various industries [6][7]. - Futures companies in Guangdong, such as Foshan Jin控 Futures and Hualian Futures, are focusing on customized services that address the distinct risk management requirements of local enterprises, enhancing their operational efficiency [7][9]. Group 4: Future Directions and Challenges - The article emphasizes the need for Guangdong's futures market to enhance its service ecosystem, particularly in areas like professional talent development and real-time market strategy delivery, to better support local enterprises [12][13]. - There is a growing expectation among enterprises for futures companies to expand their service offerings, particularly in the context of internationalization and digital transformation, to meet evolving market demands [14][16].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Report's Core View - Both Shanghai rubber (RU) and synthetic rubber (BR) are expected to run weakly and maintain a volatile and weak trend on Friday, January 9, 2026, as the previous bullish factors have gradually been digested [1][5][7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Shanghai Rubber (RU) - **Market Trends**: Short - term and medium - term trends are volatile, and the intraday view is weak, with a reference view of weak operation [1][5]. - **Core Logic**: The end of the war between Thailand and Cambodia weakens geopolitical risks, dispelling the expectation of a decline in Southeast Asian rubber supply and reducing bullish drivers. Domestic Yunnan and Hainan natural rubber production areas are in the off - season, reducing the supply pressure of domestic full - latex, while Southeast Asia is in the peak tapping season. The domestic automobile production and sales data are optimistic, and the heavy - truck sales data in December are better than expected. After the previous bullish factors were digested, the domestic Shanghai rubber futures fell from a high on Thursday night [5]. Synthetic Rubber (BR) - **Market Trends**: Short - term and medium - term trends are volatile, and the intraday view is weak, with a reference view of weak operation [1][7]. - **Core Logic**: Due to the tight circulation of northern goods and downstream replenishment demand, the spot price of butadiene has risen sharply. The rapid increase in raw material costs has squeezed the profits of synthetic rubber manufacturers, leading to some device load reductions or shutdowns and a decline in supply expectations. The domestic automobile production and sales data are optimistic, and the heavy - truck sales data in December are better than expected. The Shanghai rubber futures maintain a volatile and strong pattern, indirectly supporting synthetic rubber futures. After the previous bullish factors were digested, the domestic synthetic rubber futures fell from a high on Thursday night [7].

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - For crude oil, although the geopolitical premium has disappeared and OPEC's production increase is minimal with supply not yet surging, oil prices should not be overly shorted in the short - term. A range strategy of buying low and selling high is maintained, but it is recommended to wait and see for now to observe OPEC's export price - support intention [3]. - For methanol, the current valuation is low, and the outlook for next year is marginally improving with limited downside. Due to the recent geopolitical instability in Iran, there is a feasibility of buying on dips [6]. - For urea, the current situation of the internal - external price difference has opened the import window, and with the expectation of increased production at the end of January, there will be bearish fundamentals, so it is advisable to take profits on rallies [8]. - For rubber, the stock market and commodities mostly rose, and the technical analysis of rubber prices is bullish but shows signs of weakness. There are different views from the long and short sides. The short - term trading strategy is neutral, with a short - selling strategy if it falls below 16,000. It is also recommended to partially build a position by buying the NR main contract and shorting the RU2609 [10][11][14]. - For PVC, the overall fundamentals are poor with strong supply and weak demand in the domestic market. In the short - term, electricity prices are expected to support PVC at the cost end, while in the medium - term, a strategy of shorting on rallies is recommended before significant production cuts in the industry [16][17]. - For pure benzene and styrene, the non - integrated profit of styrene is neutral to low with large upward repair space. It is advisable to go long on the non - integrated profit of styrene before the first quarter of next year [20]. - For polyethylene, OPEC + plans to suspend production growth in Q1 2026, and the crude oil price may have bottomed. It is recommended to go long on the LL5 - 9 spread on dips [23]. - For polypropylene, under the background of weak supply and demand with high inventory pressure, the futures price may bottom out when the oversupply situation changes in Q1 next year [26]. - For PX, it is expected to maintain a slight inventory build - up before the maintenance season. There are medium - term opportunities to go long on dips [29]. - For PTA, it is expected to enter the Spring Festival inventory build - up stage after short - term inventory drawdown. There are medium - term opportunities to go long on dips [31]. - For ethylene glycol, the overall load is still high, and the port inventory build - up cycle will continue. In the medium - term, there is an expectation of further profit compression and load reduction. It is necessary to beware of rebound risks in the short - term due to the tense situation in Iran [33]. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Information**: The main INE crude oil futures closed down 8.60 yuan/barrel, a 2.02% decline, at 416.20 yuan/barrel. High - sulfur fuel oil rose 1.00 yuan/ton, a 0.04% increase, to 2458.00 yuan/ton, and low - sulfur fuel oil rose 33.00 yuan/ton, a 1.14% increase, to 2929.00 yuan/ton. The U.S. EIA weekly data showed that commercial crude oil inventories decreased by 3.83 million barrels to 419.06 million barrels, a 0.91% decrease; SPR increased by 0.25 million barrels to 413.46 million barrels, a 0.06% increase; gasoline inventories increased by 7.70 million barrels to 242.04 million barrels, a 3.29% increase; diesel inventories increased by 5.59 million barrels to 129.27 million barrels, a 4.52% increase; fuel oil inventories decreased by 0.06 million barrels to 22.98 million barrels, a 0.27% decrease; and aviation kerosene inventories increased by 0.05 million barrels to 44.03 million barrels, a 0.11% increase [2]. - **Strategy**: Maintain a range strategy of buying low and selling high, but wait and see for now [3]. Methanol - **Market Information**: Regional spot prices in Jiangsu changed by 10 yuan/ton, Shandong by 0 yuan/ton, Henan by - 15 yuan/ton, Hebei by 0 yuan/ton, and Inner Mongolia by - 2.5 yuan/ton. The main futures contract decreased by 36 yuan/ton to 2231 yuan/ton, and the MTO profit was 127 yuan [5]. - **Strategy**: Buy on dips [6]. Urea - **Market Information**: Regional spot prices in Shandong, Hebei, Hubei, and Jiangsu increased by 10 yuan/ton, while those in Henan and Shanxi remained unchanged. The overall basis was - 36 yuan/ton. The main futures contract decreased by 14 yuan/ton to 1776 yuan/ton [7]. - **Strategy**: Take profits on rallies [8]. Rubber - **Market Information**: The stock market and commodities mostly rose, and the technical analysis of rubber prices is bullish but shows signs of weakness. There are different views from the long and short sides. The tire开工率 has marginally deteriorated. As of December 25, 2025, the operating rate of all - steel tires in Shandong was 62.20%, 2.46 percentage points lower than the previous week and 0.02 percentage points lower than the same period last year. The operating rate of semi - steel tires was 73.74%, 0.98 percentage points higher than the previous week but 5.05 percentage points lower than the same period last year. The social inventory of natural rubber in China was 118.2 tons as of December 21, 2025, a 2.5% increase from the previous month [10][11][12]. - **Strategy**: Adopt a neutral short - term trading strategy, or wait and see. Short if it falls below 16,000. Partially build a position by buying the NR main contract and shorting the RU2609 [14]. PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC05 contract rose 53 yuan to 4972 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4650 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton. The basis was - 255 yuan/ton, an increase of 17 yuan/ton. The 5 - 9 spread was - 137 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2 yuan/ton. The overall operating rate of PVC was 78.6%, a 1.4% increase from the previous period, with the calcium - carbide method at 78.4% (a 0.1% decrease) and the ethylene method at 79.3% (a 5% increase). The overall downstream operating rate was 44.5%, a 0.9% decrease. Factory inventory was 30.9 tons (an increase of 0.3 tons), and social inventory was 106.3 tons (an increase of 0.3 tons) [15]. - **Strategy**: Short on rallies in the medium - term before significant production cuts in the industry [17]. Pure Benzene & Styrene - **Market Information**: The spot price of pure benzene in East China was 5320 yuan/ton, unchanged. The closing price of the active contract was 5442 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis was - 122 yuan/ton, an increase of 22 yuan/ton. The spot price of styrene was 6925 yuan/ton, an increase of 25 yuan/ton. The closing price of the active contract was 6807 yuan/ton, a decrease of 21 yuan/ton. The basis was 118 yuan/ton, an increase of 46 yuan/ton. The BZN spread was 138.25 yuan/ton, an increase of 4.5 yuan/ton. The profit of non - integrated EB plants was - 99.3 yuan/ton, a decrease of 25 yuan/ton. The EB spread between the first and second contracts was 69 yuan/ton, a decrease of 19 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 70.7%, a 1.57% increase. The inventory at Jiangsu ports was 13.23 tons, a decrease of 0.65 tons. The weighted operating rate of the three S products was 42.24%, a 1.77% increase [19]. - **Strategy**: Go long on the non - integrated profit of styrene before the first quarter of next year [20]. Polyethylene - **Market Information**: The closing price of the main contract was 6628 yuan/ton, a decrease of 14 yuan/ton. The spot price was 6525 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis was - 103 yuan/ton, an increase of 14 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 83.39%, a 0.04% increase. The production enterprise inventory was 39.54 tons, a 2.47 - ton increase, and the trader inventory was 2.93 tons, a 0.17 - ton increase. The average downstream operating rate was 40.8%, a 0.35% decrease. The LL5 - 9 spread was - 37 yuan/ton, an 8 - yuan increase [22]. - **Strategy**: Go long on the LL5 - 9 spread on dips [23]. Polypropylene - **Market Information**: The closing price of the main contract was 6484 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2 yuan/ton. The spot price was 6340 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis was - 144 yuan/ton, an increase of 2 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 73.85%, a 1.03% decrease. The production enterprise inventory was 46.77 tons, a 2.3 - ton decrease, the trader inventory was 20.47 tons, a 2.75 - ton increase, and the port inventory was 7.11 tons, a 0.48 - ton increase. The average downstream operating rate was 52.76%, a 0.48% decrease. The LL - PP spread was 144 yuan/ton, a 12 - yuan decrease [24][25]. - **Strategy**: Wait for the oversupply situation to change in Q1 next year for the price to bottom out [26]. PX - **Market Information**: The PX03 contract decreased by 50 yuan to 7286 yuan. The PX CFR price decreased by 14 dollars to 886 dollars. The basis was 1 yuan (an increase of 6 yuan), and the 3 - 5 spread was - 42 yuan (unchanged). The Chinese PX operating rate was 90.9%, a 0.3% increase, and the Asian operating rate was 81.2%, a 0.3% increase. A 820,000 - ton overseas plant in Kuwait was under maintenance, and the load of FCFC in Taiwan, China increased. The PTA operating rate was 78.2%, a 0.1% increase. In December, South Korea exported 433,000 tons of PX to China, a 42,000 - ton increase year - on - year. In November, the inventory was 4.02 million tons, a 50,000 - ton decrease from the previous month. The PXN was 367 dollars (a 2 - dollar decrease), the South Korean PX - MX was 147 dollars (a 7 - dollar decrease), and the naphtha crack spread was 90 dollars (a 1 - dollar decrease) [28]. - **Strategy**: Look for medium - term opportunities to go long on dips [29]. PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA05 contract remained unchanged at 5150 yuan. The East China spot price decreased by 30 yuan to 5070 yuan. The basis was - 48 yuan/ton, a 7 - yuan decrease. The 5 - 9 spread was 60 yuan/ton, a 16 - yuan decrease. The PTA operating rate was 78.2%, a 0.1% increase. The downstream operating rate was 90.8%, unchanged. Some plants were under maintenance or restarted. The social inventory (excluding credit warrants) was 203 tons as of January 4, a 25,000 - ton decrease from the previous period. The spot processing fee of PTA increased by 43 yuan to 367 yuan, and the processing fee on the futures market increased by 14 yuan to 384 yuan [30]. - **Strategy**: Look for medium - term opportunities to go long on dips, paying attention to the rhythm [31]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The EG05 contract rose 41 yuan to 3879 yuan. The East China spot price decreased by 2 yuan to 3717 yuan. The basis was - 143 yuan/ton, a 4 - yuan decrease. The 5 - 9 spread was - 91 yuan/ton, unchanged. The ethylene glycol operating rate was 73.9%, a 0.2% increase, with the syngas - based method at 78.6% (a 2.8% increase) and the ethylene - based method at 71.3% (a 1.2% decrease). Some plants were under maintenance or planned to start production. The import arrival forecast was 178,000 tons, and the departure from East China ports on January 7 was 12,600 tons. The port inventory was 72.5 tons, a 5000 - ton decrease from the previous period. The profit of naphtha - based production was - 756 yuan, that of domestic ethylene - based production was - 892 yuan, and that of coal - based production was 188 yuan. The ethylene price remained unchanged at 745 dollars, and the price of Yulin pit - mouth steam coal decreased to 540 yuan [32]. - **Strategy**: Be cautious of short - term rebound risks due to the tense situation in Iran. Expect further valuation compression in the medium - term without further production cuts in China [33].

Core Insights - Côte d'Ivoire's foreign trade experienced significant growth in Q3 2025, with total trade increasing by 28% year-on-year, driven by a 51.4% rise in exports to $7.42 billion [1] Trade Performance - Exports reached $7.42 billion, marking a 51.4% increase compared to the previous year, while imports rose slightly by 3.5% to $4.85 billion, resulting in a trade surplus of $2.57 billion, up from $220 million a year earlier [1] Export Categories - Key export products included rubber and rubber products ($1.1 billion, +47.1%), precious metals like gold ($1.1 billion, +28.2%), cashews ($650 million, +74.4%), and crude oil ($610 million, +89%) [1] Export Markets - Major export destinations were Europe and Asia, with Switzerland and France as the top two importers at $980 million and $940 million, respectively. The top ten importing countries accounted for 66.5% of total exports [1] Import Categories - Main imports consisted of petroleum products ($500 million, +21.4%), general machinery (+9.3%), and automobiles (+28.5%). Notably, crude oil imports saw a significant decline of 66% [1] Import Sources - China remained the largest supplier to Côte d'Ivoire, with exports valued at $940 million, followed by Nigeria, France, the USA, India, Vietnam, Germany, Egypt, and the Netherlands, which together accounted for 58.1% of total imports [1] Economic Outlook - The substantial improvement in trade surplus signals positive macroeconomic trends for Côte d'Ivoire, although challenges remain in diversifying exports and enhancing local value addition to convert cyclical surpluses into structural advantages [1]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton: ★★★ [1] - Pulp: ★★★ [1] - Sugar: ★★★ [1] - Apple: ★★★ [1] - Timber: ★★★ [1] - 20 - rubber: ☆☆☆ [1] - Natural rubber: ☆☆☆ [1] - Butadiene rubber: ★★★ [1] Core Views - The report analyzes various soft - commodity markets, including cotton, sugar, apple, rubber, pulp, and timber, and gives corresponding operation suggestions based on market supply - demand, inventory, and price trends [2][3][5] Summary by Commodity Cotton & Cotton Yarn - Zhengzhou cotton prices dropped sharply today with a significant reduction in positions, as commodities fell collectively. The recent rally was driven by expectations, while downstream conditions were average. Spot sales were ordinary with a stable - to - weak basis. Although new - cotton production increased substantially, commercial inventories were lower year - on - year, and sales progress was faster, providing strong support for the market. Currently in the off - season, demand remained stable. As of December 25, cumulative lint processing was 669.7 million tons, up 75.8 million tons year - on - year. As of December 15, national cotton commercial inventories were 534.9 million tons, down 1.63 million tons year - on - year. Xinjiang's cotton planting area reduction policy was implemented, but the reduction range was not specified. Spinning mills' demand for raw materials was resilient with low finished - product inventories, but downstream orders were average. Suggestion: Exit long positions and wait and see [2] Sugar - Overnight, US sugar prices oscillated. Internationally, the short - term market focus was on the yield forecast gap in the Northern Hemisphere. In the 25/26 sugar season, India's production progress was fast with a significant year - on - year increase in sugar output. However, Thailand's production was slow and output was below expectations. Domestically, Zhengzhou sugar prices oscillated. In December, Guangxi's sugar production and sales both decreased. December single - month sugar production in Guangxi was 180.8 million tons, down 43.1 million tons year - on - year; sugar sales were 79.54 million tons, down 55.18 million tons year - on - year; industrial inventories were 105.71 million tons, down 6.21 million tons year - on - year. The sales decline was mainly due to strong market bearish sentiment. Although there was a strong expectation of increased production in Guangxi in the 25/26 sugar season, the production progress was always slow. If production could not increase later, futures prices would rise. Suggestion: Wait and see [3] Apple - Futures prices oscillated at high levels. In the spot market, mainstream prices were stable, and demand increased. In Shaanxi, the asking prices of some soft - semi - commercial fruit from farmers decreased, and farmers' willingness to sell increased. Cold - storage merchants in the producing areas mainly packed their own goods for market, with less procurement of farmers' fruit. Due to merchants starting to stock up for the Spring Festival, cold - storage trading volume increased. As of December 26, national cold - storage apple inventories were 702.1 million tons, down 12.76% year - on - year. The national cold - storage apple destocking volume was 10.6 million tons, down 14.17% year - on - year. The market trading logic shifted to demand. This year's apples had poor quality but high purchase prices, and the reluctance of traders and farmers to sell might affect the destocking speed. Suggestion: Wait and see [4] 20 - rubber, Natural Rubber, and Synthetic Rubber - Today, natural rubber RU and 20 - rubber NR futures prices dropped slightly, while butadiene rubber BR futures prices rose slightly. Domestic natural rubber spot prices were stable, synthetic rubber spot prices increased, and the outer - market butadiene port prices continued to rise. Thailand's raw - material market prices were stable with some increases. In terms of supply, global natural rubber supply entered the production - reducing period, with China's Yunnan production area fully stopped, Hainan accelerating to stop, and Vietnam gradually stopping later. Last week, the operating rate of domestic butadiene rubber plants was stable, with Maoming Petrochemical and Dushanzi Petrochemical plants still under maintenance, and the operating rate of upstream butadiene plants continuing to rise. In terms of demand, last week, the domestic tire operating rate dropped significantly, and the finished - product inventories of Shandong tire enterprises continued to increase. In terms of inventory, this week, the total natural rubber inventory in Qingdao area increased to 54.83 million tons, with both bonded - area and general - trade inventories increasing. Before the holiday, China's butadiene rubber social inventory decreased to 1.47 million tons, and this week, the upstream Chinese butadiene port inventory decreased to 4.13 million tons. Overall, after the holiday, demand would recover, natural rubber supply would decline, synthetic rubber supply would be stable, natural rubber inventory would continue to accumulate, synthetic rubber inventory would continue to decline, cost support would strengthen, and market sentiment would weaken. Suggestion: Wait and see [5] Pulp - Pulp prices dropped today. Limited by weak downstream demand, the short - term upward space for pulp might be restricted. The focus was on macro and capital trends. The spot price of coniferous pulp Moon was 5,450 yuan/ton, and the price of Russian coniferous pulp in Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Shanghai was 5,400 yuan/ton; the price of broad - leaf pulp Goldfish was 4,750 yuan/ton. As of January 8, 2026, the inventory of China's main pulp ports was 200.7 million tons, up 1.0 million tons from the previous period, a 0.5% increase. The inventory continued to accumulate. The narrowing price difference between coniferous and broad - leaf pulp provided some support for coniferous pulp. Recently, the outer - market quotes for coniferous and broad - leaf pulp both increased. Paper mills' procurement of pulp was mainly based on rigid demand, and the increase in base - paper prices was relatively weak. Suggestion: Buy on dips [6] Timber - Futures prices oscillated. In the spot market, mainstream quotes were stable. In terms of supply, outer - market quotes decreased, and domestic spot prices were weak. The short - term arrival volume would decrease. In terms of demand, as of January 2, the average daily outbound volume of logs from 13 national ports was 56,500 cubic meters, a 3.09% week - on - week decrease. Demand entered the off - season, and the recent outbound volume decreased. In terms of inventory, as of January 2, the total national port log inventory was 2.67 million cubic meters, a 5.12% increase. The total national log inventory was relatively low, and the inventory pressure was relatively small. Overall, low inventory provided some support for prices. Suggestion: Wait and see [7]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Views of the Report - In the near - term, the total inventory at Qingdao Port continues to accumulate, with both bonded and general trade warehouses showing inventory build - up, and the overall inventory accumulation rate increasing month - on - month. The rubber price is oscillating at a high level before the holiday. Some tire enterprises are on holiday for maintenance. Except for a small amount of replenishment at low prices, most enterprises are mainly in a wait - and - see mode and are cautious in purchasing. The decline in the total outbound volume at Qingdao Port has led to a significant increase in the total inventory. In terms of demand, the capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises has decreased this week. As the maintenance devices gradually resume, the capacity utilization rate of tire enterprises may slightly rebound next week. The ru2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 15,800 - 16,450 in the short term, and the nr2603 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 12,800 - 13,250 in the short term [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main SHFE rubber contract is 16,120 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan; the closing price of the main 20 - number rubber contract is 13,065 yuan/ton, down 85 yuan. The SHFE rubber 5 - 9 spread is 10 yuan/ton, unchanged; the 20 - number rubber 2 - 3 spread is - 45 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan. The spread between SHFE rubber and 20 - number rubber is 3,055 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan. The position of the main SHFE rubber contract is 196,468 lots, down 3,654 lots; the position of the main 20 - number rubber contract is 71,121 lots, down 1,611 lots. The net position of the top 20 in SHFE rubber is - 46,456 lots, up 3,840 lots; the net position of the top 20 in 20 - number rubber is - 13,566 lots, up 475 lots. The SHFE rubber exchange warehouse receipt is 103,190 tons, unchanged; the 20 - number rubber exchange warehouse receipt is 57,154 tons, up 202 tons [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The price of state - owned whole latex in the Shanghai market is 15,750 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan; the price of Vietnamese 3L in the Shanghai market is 16,050 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan. The price of Thai standard STR20 is 1,930 US dollars/ton, up 15 US dollars; the price of Malaysian standard SMR20 is 1,925 US dollars/ton, up 15 US dollars. The price of Thai RMB mixed rubber is 15,100 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; the price of Malaysian RMB mixed rubber is 15,050 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan. The price of Qilu Petrochemical's Styrene - Butadiene Rubber 1502 is 11,700 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Qilu Petrochemical's Butadiene Rubber BR9000 is 11,700 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan [2] 3.3 Basis - The SHFE rubber basis is - 430 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan; the non - standard product basis of the main SHFE rubber contract is - 1,080 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan. The price of 20 - number rubber in the Qingdao market is 13,368 yuan/ton, up 130 yuan; the basis of the main 20 - number rubber contract is 218 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan [2] 3.4 Upstream Situation - The market reference price of Thai raw rubber (smoked sheet) is 60.31 Thai baht/kg, up 0.72 Thai baht; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber (film) is 56.15 Thai baht/kg, up 0.6 Thai baht. The market reference price of Thai raw rubber (latex) is 55.25 Thai baht/kg, up 0.25 Thai baht; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber (cup lump) is 52.95 Thai baht/kg, up 0.85 Thai baht. The theoretical production profit of RSS3 is 138.6 US dollars/ton, up 13.6 US dollars; the theoretical production profit of STR20 is - 17.4 US dollars/ton, down 19.8 US dollars [2] 3.5 Import Volume - The monthly import volume of technically specified natural rubber is 168,800 tons, up 42,700 tons; the monthly import volume of mixed rubber is 302,200 tons, up 45,800 tons [2] 3.6 Downstream Situation - The weekly operating rate of all - steel tires is 59.55%, down 2.4 percentage points; the weekly operating rate of semi - steel tires is 69.35%, down 2.7 percentage points. The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the period is 47.05 days, up 3.27 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the period is 47.05 days, up 0.19 days. The monthly output of all - steel tires is 59,130,100 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires is 58,316,630 pieces [2] 3.7 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying is 14%, up 0.05 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying is 13.8%, up 0.01 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 22.62%, up 0.16 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 22.63%, up 0.17 percentage points [2] 3.8 Weather and Market News - From January 3rd to January 9th, 2026, the rainfall in the main natural rubber producing areas in Southeast Asia increased slightly compared with the previous period. North of the equator, there is no red - alert area, and the rainfall in most other areas is low, slightly increasing the impact on tapping. South of the equator, the red - alert areas are mainly in Malaysia, and the rainfall in most other areas is at a medium level, reducing the impact on tapping. In December 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 95,000 vehicles, a 16% month - on - month decrease and a 13% year - on - year increase. In 2025, China's heavy - truck market ended with nearly 1.14 million vehicles. As of January 4th, 2026, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 548,300 tons, a 4.48% increase. The bonded area inventory was 88,100 tons, an 8.16% increase; the general trade inventory was 460,300 tons, a 3.8% increase. As of January 8th, the capacity utilization rate of semi - steel tire sample enterprises in China was 63.78%, a 2.75 - percentage - point month - on - month decrease and a 13.97 - percentage - point year - on - year decrease; the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 55.5%, a 2.43 - percentage - point month - on - month decrease and a 3.37 - percentage - point year - on - year decrease [2]

Group 1: Report Information - Report title: Synthetic Rubber Industry Daily Report 2026-01-08 [1] Group 2: Market Data Summary Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract for synthetic rubber is 12,195 yuan/ton [2] - The open interest of the main contract for synthetic rubber decreased by 3,753 to 30,228 [2] - The 2-3 spread of synthetic rubber is -35 yuan/ton [2] - The total number of warehouse receipts for butadiene rubber decreased by 30 to 4,530 tons [2] Spot Market - The mainstream prices of BR9000 from Qilu Petrochemical, Daqing Petrochemical in Shandong, Daqing Petrochemical in Shanghai, and Maoming Petrochemical in Guangdong are 11,800 yuan/ton, 11,800 yuan/ton, 11,800 yuan/ton, and 11,850 yuan/ton respectively, with some prices increasing by 50 yuan/ton [2] - The basis of synthetic rubber is -305 yuan/ton [2] - Brent crude oil price is 59.96 US dollars/barrel, down 0.74 [2] - Naphtha CFR Japan price is 745 US dollars/ton [2] - Northeast Asian ethylene price is 1,005 US dollars/ton, up 20 [2] - Butadiene CFR China price is 532.75 US dollars/ton, down 1.5 [2] - WTI crude oil price is 55.99 US dollars/barrel, down 1.14 [2] - The mainstream market price of butadiene in Shandong increased by 150 to 9,300 yuan/ton [2] Upstream Situation - The weekly butadiene production capacity is 15.93 million tons/week, with no change [2] - The weekly butadiene capacity utilization rate increased by 0.56 percentage points to 71.17% [2] - The port inventory of butadiene decreased by 1,400 to 44,700 tons [2] - The operating rate of Shandong local refineries' atmospheric and vacuum distillation units decreased by 0.37 percentage points to 54.57% [2] - The monthly production of cis - butadiene rubber decreased by 0.75 to 13.01 million tons [2] - The weekly capacity utilization rate of cis - butadiene rubber increased by 0.5 percentage points to 76.76% [2] - The weekly production profit of cis - butadiene rubber is 334 yuan/ton [2] - The weekly social inventory of cis - butadiene rubber increased by 0.05 to 3.45 million tons [2] - The weekly manufacturer's inventory of cis - butadiene rubber decreased by 2,550 to 26,300 tons [2] - The weekly trader's inventory of cis - butadiene rubber increased by 1,490 to 7,180 tons [2] Downstream Situation - The operating rate of domestic semi - steel tires decreased by 2.7 percentage points to 69.35% [2] - The operating rate of domestic all - steel tires decreased by 2.4 percentage points to 59.55% [2] - The monthly production of all - steel tires increased by 59 to 1,301 million pieces [2] - The monthly production of semi - steel tires increased by 663 to 5,831 million pieces [2] - The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong are 47.05 days, with a 0.19 - day increase [2] - The inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong are 47.05 days [2] Group 3: Industry News - As of January 8, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 63.78%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.75 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 13.97 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 55.50%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.43 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 3.37 percentage points [2] - In December, the production of cis - butadiene rubber was 14.36 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.35 million tons (10.38%) and a year - on - year increase of 1.97%. The capacity utilization rate was 72.13%, a 4.65 - percentage - point increase from the previous month and a 2.68 - percentage - point decrease from the same period last year [2] - As of January 7, the domestic cis - butadiene rubber inventory was 3.31 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.04 million tons (1.08%) [2] - Recently, there have been few shutdowns of domestic cis - butadiene units, supply has remained high. The cis - butadiene market has been boosted by the sharp rise in raw material prices, and the sales of production enterprises have improved, but there is some inventory waiting to be picked up after being sold, and the overall inventory level has changed little [2] Group 4: Core Viewpoints - This period, the domestic production of cis - butadiene rubber has remained at a high level. The cis - butadiene market has been boosted by the sharp rise in raw material prices, and the sales of production enterprises have improved, but the overall inventory level has changed little due to the existence of unsold inventory [2] - The continuous strength and rapid price increase of raw materials have led to a significant increase in the supply price of cis - butadiene rubber. However, due to the downstream's resistance to high prices, they may maintain rigid demand purchases. It is expected that the inventory of production enterprises and trading enterprises may increase in the short term [2] - The capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises has decreased this week. Some enterprises had maintenance arrangements around the "New Year's Day" holiday, and some enterprises continued to control production during the cycle, dragging down the capacity utilization rate of sample enterprises. As the maintenance devices gradually resume, the capacity utilization rate of tire enterprises may increase slightly next week [2] - The short - term price of the br2603 contract is expected to fluctuate between 12,000 and 12,550 [2]

证券之星消息，1月8日橡胶板块较上一交易日上涨2.93%，彤程新材领涨。当日上证指数报收于 4082.98，下跌0.07%。深证成指报收于13959.48，下跌0.51%。橡胶板块个股涨跌见下表： 从资金流向上来看，当日橡胶板块主力资金净流入3847.73万元，游资资金净流出1.84亿元，散户资金净 流入1.46亿元。橡胶板块个股资金流向见下表： | 代码 | 名称 | 主力净流入(元) | 主力净占比 游资净流入 (元) | | 游资净占比 散户净流入 (元) | | 散户净占比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 603650 彤程新材 | | 1.27亿 | 3.60% | -1.87 Z | -5.29% | 6005.43万 | 1.70% | | 002068 黑猫股份 | | 3012.48万 | 14.46% | -875.22万 | -4.20% | -2137.26万 | -10.26% | | 920098 科隆新材 | | 1171.39万 | 14.45% | -127.03万 | -1.57% | 34.97万 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints - Both Shanghai rubber and synthetic rubber are expected to run with a strong bias in the short - term and mid - term, with a strong bias on the day of trading [1][5][7] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Shanghai Rubber (RU) - **Price Trend**: Short - term: oscillating; Mid - term: oscillating; Intraday: strong bias; Overall reference view: run with a strong bias [1][5] - **Core Logic**: With the end of the war between Thailand and Cambodia, the geopolitical risk weakens, and the expectation of reduced rubber supply in Southeast Asia dissipates. However, domestic natural rubber production areas in Yunnan and Hainan have entered the off - season, reducing the supply pressure of domestic full - latex. Southeast Asia is still in the peak tapping season. The domestic automobile production and sales data are optimistic, and the heavy - truck sales data in December are better than expected. Supported by a bullish atmosphere, Shanghai rubber futures oscillated at a high level on Wednesday night and are expected to maintain an oscillating and strong - biased trend on Thursday [5] Synthetic Rubber (BR) - **Price Trend**: Short - term: oscillating; Mid - term: oscillating; Intraday: strong bias; Overall reference view: run with a strong bias [1][7] - **Core Logic**: Affected by the tight circulation of northern supplies and downstream replenishment demand, the spot price of butadiene has risen sharply. The rapid increase in raw material costs has squeezed the profits of synthetic rubber manufacturers, leading to some plants reducing production or shutting down, and the supply is expected to decline. The domestic automobile production and sales data are optimistic, and the heavy - truck sales data in December are better than expected. Coupled with the oscillating and strong - biased pattern of Shanghai rubber futures, it indirectly supports synthetic rubber futures. The supply - demand expectation of synthetic rubber has improved, and the bullish atmosphere has gradually dominated. Synthetic rubber futures rose sharply on Wednesday night and are expected to maintain an oscillating and strong - biased trend on Thursday [7]

Oil Market - Oil prices continued to decline, with WTI February contract closing at $55.99 per barrel, down $1.14 (2.00%) and Brent March contract at $59.96 per barrel, down $0.74 (1.22%) [2][16] - The U.S. has reached an agreement to import up to $2 billion worth of Venezuelan oil, which is expected to increase the supply for the world's largest oil consumer, contributing to the drop in international oil prices [2][16] - The agreement may require oil shipments originally destined for China to change routes, as millions of barrels of Venezuelan oil have been stranded due to previous export restrictions [2][16] - The market is facing a contradiction where the volume of Venezuelan oil is expected to increase, while trade flows are shifting from West to East, raising concerns about discounted oil alternatives and energy spillover effects [2][16] Fuel Oil - The main contract for fuel oil on the Shanghai Futures Exchange fell by 1.38% to 2437 yuan/ton, while low-sulfur fuel oil dropped by 2.29% to 2860 yuan/ton [3][17] - Singapore is expected to see stable arrivals of low-sulfur fuel oil in the coming weeks, which will continue to increase local inventories [3][17] - Demand for low-sulfur fuel oil remains weak due to holiday impacts, while high-sulfur fuel oil demand is supported by an increase in ships installing desulfurization towers [3][17] Asphalt - The main asphalt contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased by 0.13% to 3151 yuan/ton, with total domestic asphalt inventory at 24.73%, down 0.33% from last week [5][18] - The supply of diluted asphalt remains stable, with expectations that raw material supply will not be directly affected by geopolitical events [5][18] - The market is expected to stabilize with a slight upward trend in prices due to support from raw materials and supply, despite some pressure from certain refineries [5][18] Rubber - The main rubber contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose by 130 yuan/ton to 16180 yuan/ton, with NR main contract up by 140 yuan/ton to 13150 yuan/ton [6][19] - The production area is experiencing alleviated rainfall, and the overseas peak production season is expected to last for over a month, providing support for raw material prices [6][19] - Downstream tire demand is weakening, and the macroeconomic environment is improving, leading to expectations of price fluctuations in the rubber market [6][19] PX, PTA, and MEG - TA605 closed at 5150 yuan/ton, unchanged, while EG2605 rose by 1.07% to 3879 yuan/ton [7][20] - PX futures closed at 7286 yuan/ton, down 0.68%, with the market facing weak demand and potential further declines in polyester operating rates [7][20] - Ethylene glycol supply is expected to improve with various facilities planning maintenance, while demand remains weak, leading to a forecast of price fluctuations [7][20] Methanol - Methanol prices in Taicang were at 2273 yuan/ton, with expectations of a slight increase in domestic production in January [8][21] - The decline in Iranian shipments is expected to reduce arrivals in January, providing price support, while MTO plant profits are under pressure [8][21] - Overall, methanol is expected to maintain a strong fluctuation trend due to these dynamics [8][21] Polyolefins - Polypropylene prices in East China ranged from 6200 to 6400 yuan/ton, with various production margins indicating negative profitability [9][22] - Supply is expected to decrease slightly due to temporary maintenance, while demand is anticipated to recover slightly in early January [9][22] - Overall, polyolefins are expected to experience bottom fluctuations as inventory pressures increase towards the end of January [9][22] PVC - PVC prices in East China increased, with various grades showing price adjustments between 4500 to 4750 yuan/ton [10][23] - Supply remains high while domestic demand is slowing, leading to a bearish outlook for the market [10][23] - The overall performance of PVC is characterized by weak reality and strong expectations, with limited upward space anticipated [10][23] Urea - Urea prices in major regions increased by 10 yuan/ton, with current prices at 1750 yuan/ton [11][24] - Daily production remains stable at 20.4 million tons, with supply levels expected to rise as more companies resume operations [11][24] - The market is expected to maintain a strong trend in the short term, with attention on the final results of bidding and related market dynamics [11][24] Soda Ash - Soda ash futures prices showed significant increases, with trade prices in Shihezi at 1231 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan/ton [12][25] - The industry is seeing improved demand sentiment, although the overall demand remains weak [12][25] - The market is expected to maintain a strong trend in the short term, with ongoing dynamics affecting price fluctuations [12][25] Glass - Glass prices increased significantly, with the average price at 1081 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton [13][14] - The production rate is stable, and demand sentiment is improving, although there are pressures from seasonal demand [13][14] - The market is expected to continue a strong trend in the short term, influenced by external factors and internal pressures [13][14]