Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report Through macro - fundamental analysis and technical analysis such as the golden section line, horizontal line, and moving average, the report predicts the trend of various futures contracts on July 8, 2025, including the likely range of resistance and support levels for each contract [2]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Futures Market Overview - On July 7, 2025, A - shares fluctuated downward, with the ChiNext Index falling more than 1%. The Shanghai Composite Index rose slightly, while trading volume decreased. The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index fell, and US and European stock markets showed mixed performance [15][16]. - International oil prices rose strongly on July 7, with the US oil and Brent crude oil main contracts posting gains. International precious metal futures closed with mixed results, and London's basic metals closed down across the board [10][11][12]. 2. Futures Contracts Forecast 2.1 Stock Index Futures - On July 8, 2025, stock index futures are expected to fluctuate and consolidate. For example, IF2509 has resistance at 3927 and 3944 points and support at 3900 and 3879 points [2]. - In July 2025, the main contracts of stock index futures IF, IH, IC, and IM are expected to fluctuate strongly [17]. 2.2 Treasury Bond Futures - On July 8, 2025, the 10 - year Treasury bond futures main contract T2509 is likely to fluctuate and consolidate, with resistance at 109.18 and 109.25 yuan and support at 109.00 and 108.90 yuan [34]. - The 30 - year Treasury bond futures main contract TL2509 is also expected to fluctuate and consolidate on July 8, 2025, with resistance at 121.3 and 121.5 yuan and support at 121.0 and 120.7 yuan [38]. 2.3 Precious Metal Futures - On July 8, 2025, the gold futures main contract AU2510 is likely to fluctuate strongly and attack resistance levels at 779.0 and 781.3 yuan/gram, with support at 771.3 and 768.7 yuan/gram [2]. - The silver futures main contract AG2510 is expected to fluctuate strongly on July 8, 2025, with resistance at 8948 and 8994 yuan/kg and support at 8837 and 8814 yuan/kg [3]. 2.4 Base Metal Futures - The copper futures main contract CU2508 is likely to fluctuate strongly on July 8, 2025, with resistance at 79500 and 79800 yuan/ton and support at 79200 and 78900 yuan/ton [3]. - The alumina futures main contract AO2509 is expected to fluctuate weakly on July 8, 2025, with support at 2992 and 2971 yuan/ton and resistance at 3071 and 3084 yuan/ton [3]. - The zinc futures main contract ZN2508 is likely to fluctuate weakly on July 8, 2025, and test support levels at 21960 and 21850 yuan/ton, with resistance at 22130 and 22160 yuan/ton [3]. 2.5 Industrial Metal Futures - The industrial silicon futures main contract SI2509 is expected to have a wide - range fluctuation on July 8, 2025, with resistance at 8210 and 8320 yuan/ton and support at 7900 and 7820 yuan/ton [3]. - The polysilicon futures main contract PS2508 is likely to have a wide - range fluctuation on July 8, 2025, with resistance at 37250 and 37810 yuan/ton and support at 36380 and 36050 yuan/ton [3]. - The lithium carbonate futures main contract LC2509 is expected to have a wide - range fluctuation on July 8, 2025, with resistance at 64000 and 64500 yuan/ton and support at 63300 and 62800 yuan/ton [4]. 2.6 Building Material Futures - The rebar futures main contract RB2510 is likely to fluctuate weakly on July 8, 2025, and test support levels at 3041 and 3030 yuan/ton, with resistance at 3065 and 3072 yuan/ton [4]. - The hot - rolled coil futures main contract HC2510 is expected to fluctuate weakly on July 8, 2025, and test support levels at 3163 and 3150 yuan/ton, with resistance at 3195 and 3200 yuan/ton [4]. - The iron ore futures main contract I2509 is likely to fluctuate weakly on July 8, 2025, and test support levels at 724 and 720 yuan/ton, with resistance at 736 and 741 yuan/ton [4]. 2.7 Energy Futures - The crude oil futures main contract SC2508 is likely to fluctuate strongly on July 8, 2025, and attack resistance levels at 515 and 519 yuan/barrel, with support at 505 and 502 yuan/barrel [5]. - The fuel oil futures main contract FU2509 is expected to fluctuate strongly on July 8, 2025, and attack resistance levels at 2987 and 3001 yuan/ton, with support at 2957 and 2947 yuan/ton [7]. 2.8 Chemical Futures - The PTA futures main contract TA509 is likely to fluctuate and consolidate on July 8, 2025, with resistance at 4754 and 4780 yuan/ton and support at 4686 and 4664 yuan/ton [7]. - The PVC futures main contract V2509 is expected to fluctuate weakly on July 8, 2025, with support at 4879 and 4858 yuan/ton and resistance at 4907 and 4921 yuan/ton [7]. - The methanol futures main contract MA509 is likely to fluctuate weakly on July 8, 2025, and test support levels at 2359 and 2336 yuan/ton, with resistance at 2400 and 2413 yuan/ton [7]. 3. Macro - economic and Policy Information - President Xi Jinping inspected Yangquan Valve Co., Ltd. to understand the situation of industrial transformation and upgrading in Shanxi [8]. - The Standing Committee of the National People's Congress launched an enforcement inspection of the Circular Economy Promotion Law [8]. - As of the end of June, China's gold reserves increased, and foreign exchange reserves also rose [8]. - Nine departments issued the 2025 Work Plan for the Action of Promoting Rural Revitalization through the Housekeeping Service Industry [8]. - US President Trump threatened to impose new tariffs on multiple countries, which will take effect on August 1 [9]. - Goldman Sachs said the Fed may cut policy rates in September [9]. - The EU is seeking to reach a preliminary trade agreement with the US this week [10]. - The Eurozone's July Sentix Investor Confidence Index reached a new high since February 2022, and May's retail sales showed year - on - year growth [10].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The macro - economic recovery momentum needs to be strengthened, and it is expected that the monetary policy will remain loose. There is uncertainty in the Sino - US trade agreement, so it is recommended to stay cautious [6]. - The long - term performance of Chinese equity assets is still optimistic, and it is advisable to consider going long on stock index futures [9]. - The long - term bull market trend of precious metals is expected to continue, and it is recommended to consider going long on gold futures [12]. - For various commodities, different investment strategies are recommended based on their respective supply - demand situations, cost factors, and market trends, such as going long, shorting, or staying on the sidelines. Summary by Related Catalogs Bonds - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, most treasury bond futures closed higher. The 30 - year, 10 - year, and 5 - year main contracts rose by 0.11%, 0.03%, and 0.02% respectively, while the 2 - year main contract remained flat. The central bank conducted 34 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net withdrawal of funds from the open market [5]. - **Analysis and Suggestion**: It is expected that there will be no trend - based market, and caution should be maintained [7]. Stock Index Futures - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, stock index futures showed mixed performance. The main contracts of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 stock index futures changed by 0.46%, 0.62%, - 0.01%, and - 0.43% respectively [8]. - **Analysis and Suggestion**: The long - term performance of Chinese equity assets is optimistic, and it is advisable to consider going long on stock index futures [10]. Precious Metals - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main contracts of gold and silver futures declined. The gold main contract closed at 777.06 with a decline of 0.54%, and the silver main contract closed at 8,919 with a decline of 0.28% [11]. - **Analysis and Suggestion**: The long - term bull market trend of precious metals is expected to continue, and it is recommended to consider going long on gold futures [12]. Steel Products (Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil) - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures rebounded but faced resistance. The spot prices of Tangshan billet, Shanghai rebar, and Shanghai hot - rolled coil were reported [14]. - **Analysis and Suggestion**: There is a risk of further decline in rebar prices, and the trend of hot - rolled coil may be similar. Investors can focus on short - selling opportunities during rebounds, take profits in a timely manner, and manage positions carefully [14]. Iron Ore - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, iron ore futures rebounded slightly. The spot prices of PB powder and Super Special powder at ports were reported [16]. - **Analysis and Suggestion**: The supply - demand pattern of the iron ore market has weakened marginally. Investors can focus on buying opportunities at low levels, take profits when the price rebounds, and stop losses if the price falls below the previous low, while managing positions carefully [17]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, coking coal and coke futures declined slightly [19]. - **Analysis and Suggestion**: There is uncertainty in the short - term trend. Investors can focus on short - selling opportunities during rebounds, take profits in a timely manner, and manage positions carefully [19]. Ferroalloys - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main contracts of manganese silicon and silicon iron futures declined. The spot prices of manganese silicon in Tianjin and silicon iron in Inner Mongolia changed [21]. - **Analysis and Suggestion**: In the short term, ferroalloys may continue to have an oversupply situation, and prices are under pressure. If the spot losses increase significantly, it is advisable to consider low - value call options [22]. Crude Oil - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, INE crude oil oscillated downward and broke below the 5 - day moving average [23]. - **Analysis and Suggestion**: OPEC+ unexpectedly increased production significantly, which is expected to impact oil prices. It is advisable to focus on short - selling opportunities for the main crude oil contract [24][25]. Fuel Oil - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, fuel oil oscillated downward and resumed its downward trend. The spot spreads and trading conditions of high - sulfur and ultra - low - sulfur fuel oil were reported [26]. - **Analysis and Suggestion**: Fuel oil supply is sufficient, and the cost of crude oil is declining. It is advisable to focus on short - selling opportunities for the main fuel oil contract [26]. Synthetic Rubber - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of synthetic rubber rose slightly. The mainstream price in Shandong remained stable [27]. - **Analysis and Suggestion**: Wait for the market to stabilize and then participate in the rebound [28]. Natural Rubber - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main contracts of natural rubber and 20 - grade rubber declined. The Shanghai spot price decreased [29]. - **Analysis and Suggestion**: Pay attention to the opportunity to go long after the market stabilizes [30]. PVC - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main PVC contract declined slightly, and the spot price remained stable [31]. - **Analysis and Suggestion**: The PVC price is expected to fluctuate and consolidate in the short term [34]. Urea - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main urea contract rose slightly. The price in Shandong Linyi remained stable [35]. - **Analysis and Suggestion**: The short - term trend is oscillatory, and the medium - term trend is bullish [36]. PX - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main PX2509 contract declined. The PXN and PX - MX spreads were reported [37]. - **Analysis and Suggestion**: In the short term, the supply - demand balance of PX is slightly improved but remains tight. Due to insufficient cost support, it is advisable to participate cautiously and pay attention to changes in crude oil prices and the Middle East situation [38]. PTA - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main PTA2509 contract declined. The spot price and basis rate in East China were reported [39]. - **Analysis and Suggestion**: In the short term, the supply - demand fundamentals of PTA have few contradictions, but the cost support of crude oil is insufficient. It is advisable to participate with a light position and control risks [39]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main ethylene glycol contract declined slightly. The overall and partial开工 loads, inventory, and demand situations were reported [40]. - **Analysis and Suggestion**: In the short term, the supply - demand situation of ethylene glycol has weakened, but the significant reduction in inventory provides support. It is advisable to be cautious about the downside space and pay attention to port inventory and import changes [41]. Short - Fiber - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main short - fiber 2508 contract declined. The supply, demand, and cost - benefit situations were reported [42]. - **Analysis and Suggestion**: Both the downstream terminal demand and cost factors have weakened. It is advisable to participate with a light position following the cost trend and pay attention to opportunities to expand the processing margin at low levels [42]. Bottle Chips - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main bottle chips 2509 contract declined. The cost - benefit, supply, and demand situations were reported [43]. - **Analysis and Suggestion**: Although the raw material prices have weakened recently, the increase in device maintenance and inventory reduction provide support. It is advisable to participate cautiously and pay attention to opportunities to expand the processing margin at low levels [43]. Soda Ash - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main 2509 contract of soda ash declined. The production, inventory, and device maintenance situations were reported [44]. - **Analysis and Suggestion**: In the medium - to - long term, the oversupply situation of soda ash is difficult to alleviate. There may be a short - term rebound, but it is not advisable to chase the rise excessively [44]. Glass - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main 2509 contract of glass declined. The production line, supply - demand, and market price situations were reported [45]. - **Analysis and Suggestion**: The actual supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, and the market sentiment is weak. There may be a short - term rebound, but it is not advisable to chase the rise excessively. Short - sellers at low levels should control their positions [47]. Caustic Soda - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main 2509 contract of caustic soda declined slightly. The production, inventory, and demand situations were reported [48]. - **Analysis and Suggestion**: The overall supply - demand is still relatively loose, and the regional differences are obvious. Although there is short - term bullish sentiment, the fundamental support is limited, and the sustainability is expected to be general [49]. Pulp - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main 2509 contract of pulp declined. The downstream product production, supply - demand, and price situations were reported [50]. - **Analysis and Suggestion**: The supply - demand contradiction remains unresolved. It is expected that the price of the pulp market will remain weak and stagnant in the near future, and it is advisable to wait and see the changes in raw material pulp prices and downstream demand [51]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main lithium carbonate contract declined. The market sentiment improved, but the supply - demand pattern remained unchanged [52]. - **Analysis and Suggestion**: The supply - demand surplus situation has not changed significantly. It is not advisable for investors to chase the rise [52]. Copper - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, Shanghai copper declined significantly and broke below the 5 - day moving average. The spot price and market trading situation were reported [53]. - **Analysis and Suggestion**: Shanghai copper is facing the test of the 80,000 - yuan integer mark. It is advisable to stay on the sidelines for the main Shanghai copper contract for the time being [53][54]. Tin - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, Shanghai tin oscillated. The supply, demand, and inventory situations were reported [55]. - **Analysis and Suggestion**: It is expected that the tin price will oscillate and strengthen [55]. Nickel - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, Shanghai nickel declined. The supply, demand, and inventory situations were reported [56]. - **Analysis and Suggestion**: It is expected that the nickel price will oscillate [57]. Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main contracts of soybean meal and soybean oil declined. The spot prices and inventory situations were reported [58]. - **Analysis and Suggestion**: Consider paying attention to long - position opportunities for soybean meal at low - level support intervals; for soybean oil, consider paying attention to call option opportunities at support intervals after the price decline [59]. Palm Oil - **Market Performance**: Malaysian palm oil closed lower. The international and domestic supply - demand, inventory, and price situations were reported [60][61]. - **Analysis and Suggestion**: Consider paying attention to opportunities to widen the difference between rapeseed oil and palm oil [62]. Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - **Market Performance**: Canadian rapeseed remained flat. The domestic import, inventory, and spot price situations were reported [63]. - **Analysis and Suggestion**: Consider paying attention to opportunities to go long on the ratio of rapeseed oil to rapeseed meal [64]. Cotton - **Market Performance**: Domestic Zhengzhou cotton oscillated strongly at a high level. The US cotton export, planting, and growth situations were reported [65]. - **Analysis and Suggestion**: Stay on the sidelines [69]. Sugar - **Market Performance**: Domestic Zhengzhou sugar rose and then fell. The international and domestic production, inventory, and supply - demand situations were reported [70]. - **Analysis and Suggestion**: Stay on the sidelines [72]. Apples - **Market Performance**: Domestic apple futures rose and then fell. The production, inventory, and price situations were reported [73]. - **Analysis and Suggestion**: Stay on the sidelines and pay attention to third - party production research data [75]. Pigs - **Market Performance**: The national average price of pigs declined. The supply, demand, and inventory situations were reported [76]. - **Analysis and Suggestion**: The short - term pig price may continue to be weak. It is advisable to stay on the sidelines and pay attention to the weight - reduction degree in the south [77]. Eggs - **Market Performance**: The average prices of eggs in the main production and sales areas remained unchanged. The supply, cost, and profit situations were reported [78]. - **Analysis and Suggestion**: Consider short - selling on rebounds [80]. Corn and Corn Starch - **Market Performance**: The main contracts of corn and corn starch declined. The spot prices, inventory, and demand situations were reported [81]. - **Analysis and Suggestion**: The domestic corn supply - demand is approaching balance. It is advisable to stay on the sidelines. Corn starch follows the corn market trend [82]. Logs - **Market Performance**: The main 2509 contract of logs remained unchanged. The supply, cost, demand, and price situations were reported [83]. - **Analysis and Suggestion**: It is expected that the market will oscillate and adjust before the first delivery [85].

宏观金融类 文字早评 2025/07/07 星期一 股指 宏观消息面： 1、7 月 9 日是美国总统特朗普设定的关税谈判最后期限；特朗普称，7 月 4 日起将向尚未达成贸易协议 的国家发出新关税税率的通知，税率区间为 10%至 70%，并计划从 8 月 1 日起正式实施。 2、6 月份全球制造业采购经理指数为 49.5%，较上月上升 0.3 个百分点，连续两个月环比上升。 3、美国企业家埃隆·马斯克在社交媒体平台 X 上发文称，"美国党"于当日成立，以还给人民自由。 4、住建部：持续巩固房地产市场稳定态势。 期指基差比例： IF 当月/下月/当季/隔季：-0.46%/-0.94%/-1.16%/-2.09%； IC 当月/下月/当季/隔季：-0.63%/-1.53%/-2.47%/-4.55%； IM 当月/下月/当季/隔季：-0.80%/-1.99%/-3.17%/-6.02%； IH 当月/下月/当季/隔季：-0.64%/-0.85%/-0.85%/-0.93%。 流动性：央行周五进行 340 亿元 7 天期逆回购操作，操作利率为 1.4%。因当日有 5259 亿元逆回购到期， 据此计算，单日净回笼 49 ...

据日经新闻：嘉能可、力拓和托克正在寻求政府援助，以维持澳大利亚冶炼厂。 ...

Group 1 - The ecological system of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau is diverse yet fragile, necessitating a focus on ecological protection and maximizing ecological functions [3][4][5] - Qinghai is a resource-rich province with significant responsibilities for national ecological security and sustainable development, particularly in protecting the source of the Yangtze, Yellow, and Lancang rivers [4][6] - The development of circular economy is essential for improving resource utilization efficiency while maintaining ecological balance, particularly in the context of salt lake resource development [10][11] Group 2 - The Chaka Salt Lake is a major strategic resource for Qinghai, with a total area of 5,856 square kilometers and a total salt resource reserve of 60 billion tons, making it the largest salt lake in China [10][11] - Qinghai's potassium fertilizer production is projected to reach 7.49 million tons in 2024, reflecting a growth of 4.8%, while lithium carbonate production is expected to reach 135,000 tons, a 22.3% increase [12] - The Maerdang Hydropower Station has implemented fish passage devices to protect biodiversity and has released 310,000 fish since its construction, contributing to the ecological balance of the Yellow River basin [12] Group 3 - The development of the circular economy in Qinghai includes various industries such as salt lake chemicals, oil and gas chemicals, and new materials, all emphasizing low carbon emissions [16] - The establishment of a zero-carbon industry park in Golmud is aimed at enhancing the green development of the local economy, with a focus on wind and solar energy solutions [17] - The integration of advanced technologies in the lead smelting project in the Chaka Salt Lake area demonstrates a commitment to environmental protection and resource recycling [15]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the contrasting performance of the U.S. stock market and the commodity market, highlighting the strong performance of gold and other precious metals amid rising risk aversion and uncertainty in global economic policies, particularly due to Trump's trade policies and fiscal measures [1][11][14]. Market Performance - Last week, the international spot gold price opened at $3,271.90, reaching a high of $3,365.39 and a low of $3,247.11, closing at $3,335.00, an increase of $61.61 or 1.88% [1]. - The U.S. dollar index opened at 97.21, peaked at 97.42, and closed at 96.98, down 0.26% [3]. - The Wellxin precious metals index (gold, silver, palladium, platinum) opened at 6,719.49 points, closing at 6,866.84 points, up 2.14% and reaching a historical high [3]. - Silver prices rose by 2.60%, platinum by 3.81%, and palladium by 0.26% [3]. Stock Market Trends - The Dow Jones index increased by 2.30%, the Nasdaq by 1.62%, and the S&P 500 by 1.72%, indicating strong performance in the U.S. stock market [6][8]. - The article notes a significant divide in market sentiment, with both risk aversion and risk preference appearing to strengthen [6]. Precious Metals and Commodities - The demand for safe-haven assets has boosted the performance of precious metals, with overall gains exceeding 2% and silver prices reaching a 13-year high [7]. - In contrast, the commodity market, particularly basic metals, has shown weaker performance, indicating a lack of clear direction [9]. Economic and Policy Implications - The article highlights concerns from the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) regarding the impact of Trump's trade protectionist policies on global economic uncertainty and inflation risks [11]. - A UBS survey indicates a rising trend among central banks to increase gold reserves, with 52% planning to do so in the next year, reflecting a shift towards gold as a hedge against geopolitical risks [12]. - The IMF warns that Trump's fiscal policies could exacerbate the U.S. deficit, potentially leading to a financial crisis [13]. Technical Analysis and Future Outlook - The article suggests that the current hesitation in the commodity market may not last long, with potential upward trends if the U.S. dollar continues to weaken [19]. - Observations of the NYMEX crude oil prices indicate a possible bullish trend despite recent fluctuations, supported by technical indicators [21][23]. - The article concludes that the macroeconomic environment remains complex, with potential implications for inflation and commodity demand [14][15].

Group 1 - International copper futures fell by 0.36% in the night session, while Shanghai copper dropped by 0.27% [1] - Shanghai aluminum decreased by 0.17%, and Shanghai zinc saw a slight decline of 0.02% [1] - Shanghai lead increased by 0.26%, and Shanghai nickel rose by 0.86% [1] - Shanghai tin experienced a marginal increase of 0.04% [1] - Alumina futures fell by 0.07% during the night session [1] - Stainless steel futures rose by 0.71% in the night session [1]

报告日期：2025 年 7 月 3 日 申银万国期货研究所 首席点评：美国 6 月 ADP 就业人数减少 美国 6 月 ADP 就业人数意外减少 3.3 万人，自 2023 年 3 月以来首次负增长，预 期为增长 9.8 万人，5 月份数据在向下修正后仅增加 2.9 万人。服务业就业在 6 月份减少 6.6 万个就业岗位，遭遇自疫情以来的最大降幅。美国利率期货完全 消化美联储 9 月降息预期。证监会党委召开扩大会议强调，要持续优化股债融 资、并购重组等资本市场机制安排，促进要素向最有潜力的领域高效集聚。牢 记我国资本市场中小投资者众多的最大市情，不断完善投资者保护制度体系。 深入推进以"两创板"改革为抓手的新一轮全面深化资本市场改革。全力抓好 资本市场自主开放重点举措落地。始终把维护市场稳定作为监管工作首要任 务，推动健全常态化稳市机制安排，平稳有序防控债券违约、私募基金等领域 风险。央行近日发文明确，客户单笔或者日累计金额人民币 10 万元以上（含 10 万元）现金交易的，贵金属和宝石交易从业机构应当履行反洗钱义务进行上 报，但刷卡消费不受影响。多位专家对此表示，该消息与百姓日常买金关系不 大。 重点品种： ...

Group 1 - Copper prices showed strong performance, with the Shanghai copper main contract closing above 80,000, driven by external market influences [1] - The Caixin PMI data returned above 50, indicating economic expansion, while the deadline for tariff negotiations between multiple countries and the US approaches [1] - The Federal Reserve's Powell expressed caution regarding interest rate cuts, although a potential cut in July remains on the table [1] Group 2 - Antofagasta's mid-year smelting processing fee is at 0 yuan/ton, better than market expectations of negative values, but still the lowest in history, indicating ongoing tight supply expectations [1] - Overall demand remains cautious due to overseas macroeconomic concerns and domestic seasonal factors, despite low inventory levels providing short-term support [1] - LME inventory has stopped declining, and while spot premiums have slightly decreased, they remain high, indicating a need to monitor market sentiment [1] Group 3 - Aluminum prices fluctuated at low levels, with Shanghai aluminum showing strength due to the performance of non-ferrous metals [1] - Despite concerns over future ore supply tightness, stable import ore prices and high inventory levels limit short-term impacts on alumina prices [1] - The overall surplus in the alumina market remains unchanged, with clear downward pressure, but low valuations suggest opportunities for short selling at high prices [1] Group 4 - Nickel prices saw slight gains in the night session, supported by expectations of US interest rate cuts and a weaker dollar [1] - Nickel smelting is experiencing reduced capacity expansion due to losses, but the surplus situation is unlikely to improve in the short term [1] - Seasonal recovery in ore supply is weakening support for nickel ore prices, leading to a range-bound trading pattern for nickel prices [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The market sentiment is improving, especially in the black sector, due to the non - appearance of expected significant demand data decline, high - level hot metal production, rising overseas expectations for a July interest rate cut, and potential progress in Sino - US tariff issues [34]. - For most commodities, although short - term market sentiment may drive price rebounds, the fundamental outlook remains bearish, with concerns about demand weakening, supply overcapacity, and potential cost reductions [34][35][38]. Summary by Category Macro Finance - **Stock Index**: The previous trading day saw gains in major stock indices, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.59%, ChiNext up 1.35%, etc. The total trading volume of the two markets was 1517.6 billion yuan, a decrease of 58.1 billion yuan from the previous day. It is recommended to buy long IF index futures contracts on dips and there is no arbitrage recommendation [2][5]. - **Treasury Bond**: The yields of treasury bond futures fell on Monday. The economic data in June showed some improvement, and the central bank maintained liquidity injection. It is expected that interest rates will generally decline in the second half of the year, and it is advisable to enter the market on dips [6][7]. - **Precious Metals**: The prices of gold and silver rose. The US economic data was weak, increasing market expectations for the Fed's monetary policy to loosen. It is recommended to hold a long - term view on silver prices and expect gold prices to be weak. The operating range of Shanghai gold is 732 - 786 yuan/gram, and that of Shanghai silver is 8561 - 9075 yuan/kilogram [8][10][11]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The copper price fluctuated. The LME inventory decreased, and the domestic social and bonded area inventories decreased slightly. The copper price may continue to rise in the short term but the upward momentum may weaken, with the operating range of Shanghai copper at 79000 - 80500 yuan/ton and LME copper at 9750 - 10000 US dollars/ton [13]. - **Aluminum**: The aluminum price was relatively firm. The domestic inventory increased slightly, and the LME inventory was at a low level. The aluminum price is expected to be volatile, with the operating range of the domestic main contract at 20300 - 20800 yuan/ton and LME aluminum at 2560 - 2620 US dollars/ton [14]. - **Zinc**: The zinc price rose slightly. The zinc ore supply is high, and the production of zinc ingots is expected to increase. A strike at a Peruvian zinc smelter may disturb the market sentiment. The LME Cash - 3S structure is rising, which supports the zinc price [15][16]. - **Lead**: The lead price was strong. The primary lead supply is high, the recycled lead supply is tight, and the demand from downstream battery enterprises is improving. The LME lead 7 - month contract has a high concentration of long - positions, and the Cash - 3S structure is strengthening. However, the weak domestic consumption may limit the increase of Shanghai lead [17]. - **Nickel**: The nickel price fluctuated. The nickel ore supply is expected to loosen, and the cost support is weakening. It is recommended to short on rallies, with the operating range of Shanghai nickel at 115000 - 128000 yuan/ton and LME nickel at 14500 - 16500 US dollars/ton [18]. - **Tin**: The tin price fell slightly. The supply of tin ore is tight, and the production of refined tin is expected to decrease. The terminal demand is weak. The tin price is expected to fluctuate in the range of 250000 - 280000 yuan/ton in the domestic market and 31000 - 34000 US dollars/ton in the LME market [19][20]. - **Carbonate Lithium**: The price of carbonate lithium decreased. The production is at a historical high, and the downstream demand is in the off - season. The inventory is increasing. It is recommended to be cautious about the upward space of the price, with the operating range of the Guangzhou Futures Exchange's 2509 contract at 61200 - 63000 yuan/ton [21]. - **Alumina**: The alumina price rose slightly. The production capacity is in surplus, and the price is expected to be weakly volatile. It is recommended to short on rallies, with the operating range of the domestic main contract AO2509 at 2750 - 3100 yuan/ton [22]. - **Stainless Steel**: The stainless steel price was weak. The supply is high, and the downstream demand has not improved substantially. It is expected to be weakly volatile in the short term [23]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: The price of cast aluminum alloy fluctuated slightly. The supply and demand are weak, and the price is expected to be volatile. It is necessary to pay attention to the change of the premium of the futures over the spot [24]. Black Building Materials - **Steel**: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil fluctuated. The demand in the off - season is weak, and the inventory is at a relatively healthy level. It is necessary to pay attention to policy changes and demand recovery [26][27]. - **Iron Ore**: The iron ore price was volatile. The supply decreased, the demand was stable, and the inventory increased. The iron ore price is expected to be widely volatile in the short term [28][29]. - **Glass and Soda Ash**: The glass price fell slightly, and the soda ash price was stable. The demand for glass is weak, and the supply of soda ash is in surplus. Both are expected to be weakly volatile [30]. - **Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon**: The prices of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon fell slightly. Although the short - term market sentiment may drive a rebound, the fundamental outlook is bearish. It is recommended to be cautious and wait for hedging opportunities [31][32][34]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The industrial silicon price rose slightly. The supply is in surplus, and the demand is insufficient. It is recommended to wait for hedging opportunities during the rebound [36][38]. Energy and Chemicals - **Rubber**: NR and RU fluctuated. The bulls expect price increases due to potential production cuts, while the bears are concerned about weak demand. It is recommended to wait and see or use a neutral short - term trading strategy [40][41][42]. - **Crude Oil**: The WTI crude oil price fell, and the Brent crude oil price rose. The geopolitical risk has been released, and the oil price has reached a reasonable range. It is advisable to hold short positions but not to short further [43]. - **Methanol**: The methanol price fell. The inventory is low, and the demand is short - term stable. It is recommended to wait and see [44]. - **Urea**: The urea price fell. The production decreased, the domestic demand is in the off - season, and the export is ongoing. The price is expected to be range - bound [45]. - **Styrene**: The styrene price is expected to be volatile and bearish. The cost is stable, the supply is increasing, and the demand is in the off - season [46]. - **PVC**: The PVC price fell. The supply is strong, the demand is weak, and the cost is expected to rise. The price is expected to be under pressure [48]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The ethylene glycol price fell. The supply and demand are both expected to weaken, and the inventory is expected to decrease slowly. It is recommended to short on rallies [49]. - **PTA**: The PTA price rose. The supply is expected to decrease, and the demand is under pressure. It is recommended to go long on dips following PX [50][51]. - **Para - xylene**: The PX price rose. The supply is high, and the demand is expected to increase. It is recommended to go long on dips following crude oil [52]. - **Polyethylene (PE)**: The PE price is expected to be volatile. The supply pressure may ease, and the demand is in the off - season [53]. - **Polypropylene (PP)**: The PP price is expected to be bearish in July. The supply is expected to increase, and the demand is in the off - season [54]. Agricultural Products - **Hogs**: The hog price rose. The short - term supply may be limited, but the demand is stable. It is recommended to go long on dips for near - term contracts and short on rallies for long - term contracts [56]. - **Eggs**: The egg price mostly fell. The supply and demand are balanced in the short term. It is recommended to short on rebounds in the medium term and reduce short positions or wait and see in the short term [57]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: The US soybean price fluctuated. The domestic soybean meal price was slightly adjusted. The supply is high, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to go long on dips at the lower end of the cost range [58][59]. - **Oils and Fats**: The domestic oil price fluctuated. The import data is weak, but there are some supportive factors. The oil price is expected to be volatile [60][61][62]. - **Sugar**: The sugar price was strong. The Brazilian sugar production is expected to decrease, but the import profit and chaotic futures spreads limit the upward space. The sugar price may enter a consolidation phase [63][64]. - **Cotton**: The cotton price fluctuated. The US cotton quality is poor, and the domestic supply and demand are stable. The cotton price is expected to continue to rebound, and attention should be paid to the Sino - US negotiation results [65][66].