6月24日沪指上涨1.15%，市场两融余额为18220.06亿元，较前一交易日增加51.05亿元。 证券时报·数据宝统计显示，截至6月24日，沪市两融余额9228.52亿元，较前一交易日增加14.73亿元； 深市两融余额8936.83亿元，较前一交易日增加36.29亿元；北交所两融余额54.72亿元，较前一交易日增 加370.68万元；深沪北两融余额合计18220.06亿元，较前一交易日增加51.05亿元。 分行业看，申万所属行业中，融资余额增加的行业有20个，增加金额最多的行业是电力设备，融资余额 增加13.17亿元；其次是电子、计算机行业，融资余额分别增加11.53亿元、6.68亿元。 具体到个股来看，融资余额出现增长的股票有1936只，占比52.61%，其中，334股融资余额增幅超过5% 。融资余额增幅最大的是花溪科技，该股最新融资余额271.38万元，较前一交易日增幅达59.51%；股价 表现上，该股当日下跌13.47%，表现弱于沪指；融资余额增幅较多的还有特瑞斯、铁拓机械，融资余 额增幅分别为54.87%、49.68%。 融资余额增幅前20只个股中，从市场表现来看，平均上涨2.58%，涨幅居前的有铁 ...

| | | 沪深两市近五日主力资金流向情况(亿元) | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日期 | | 人烧快雄 开盘争流入 | | 尾盘净流入 超大单净买入 | | 2025-6-24 | 63. 31 | -9.16 | 25. 32 | 89. 23 | | 2025-6-23 | 21. 17 | -20. 20 | 24. 08 | 51.96 | | 2025-6-20 | -223.42 | -81.44 | -30. 63 | -98. 58 | | 2025-6-19 | -393.92 | -77.50 | -56. 10 | -195.53 | | 2025-6-18 | -146. 58 | -73.99 | 0. 33 | -57. 46 | 2.沪深300今日主力资金净流入18.85亿元 1.A股市场全天资金净流入63.31亿元 今日A股市场主力资金开盘净流出9.16亿元，尾盘净流入25.32亿元，A股市场全天资金净流入63.31亿元。 沪深300今日主力资金净流入18.85亿元，创业板净流入29.77亿元，科创板净流出12.35亿元。 | ...

6月23日沪指上涨0.65%，市场两融余额为18169.01亿元，较前一交易日增加44.20亿元。 证券时报·数据宝统计显示，截至6月23日，沪市两融余额9213.79亿元，较前一交易日增加21.51亿元； 深市两融余额8900.54亿元，较前一交易日增加21.66亿元；北交所两融余额54.68亿元，较前一交易日增 加1.02亿元；深沪北两融余额合计18169.01亿元，较前一交易日增加44.20亿元。 融资余额降幅前20只个股 | 代码 | 简称 | 最新融资余额（万 | 较前一个交易日增减 | 当日涨跌幅（%） | 所属行业 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 元） | （%） | | | | 873690 | 捷众科 | 466.75 | -41.05 | 1.46 | 汽车 | | | 技 | | | | | | 001395 | 亚联机 | 6983.40 | -30.34 | -1.86 | 机械设备 | | | 械 | | | | | | 873726 | 卓兆点 | 702.08 | -29.52 | 4.19 | 机械设备 | | | ...

风险提示：海外流动性快速收紧；美国经济硬着陆风险；国际局势复杂化。 《策略|中观景气度高频跟踪及运用——中观景气度数据库和定量模型应 用》 晨会集萃 制作：产品中心 重点推荐 《策略|海外与外资周观察——港股能否重拾上涨动力？》 1、4 月初以来，恒生指数已实现较为可观的涨幅，但板块热度出现明显 分化。港股银行拥挤度从 3 月开始逐渐提升但斜率较缓，仍低于去年平均 水平，可以认为情绪尚未过热。恒生科技与港股创新药的拥挤度指标出现 分化，前者回落至去年平均水平，后者不断刷新近年高位。新消费板块中， 以泡泡玛特、老铺黄金、蜜雪集团为代表的成分股也出现拥挤度中枢明显 上移的情形。2、港股需要保持较高的涨幅集中度，指数才有可能实现高 收益。因此需要观察资金是否回流阿里、小米、腾讯等权重股上，但从港 股通持股量看，南向资金更多表现为逆向投资（"涨卖跌买"），当前左侧 押注意愿并不强烈。3、投资意见方面，当前板块轮动的难度正在加大， 同时海外地缘冲突扰动、内部流动性收紧的压力也在上升，建议对港股后 续走势保持谨慎，等待资金面与情绪面出现一定缓解后择机介入，方向上 坚持杠铃配置，一方面港股银行板块仍然存在溢价压缩空间，另一 ...

Core Viewpoint - The market is expected to continue its oscillating trend in the upcoming week due to weak market sentiment and technical indicators suggesting a downward trend [1][2]. Market Overview - The liquidity shock indicator for the CSI 300 index was 1.23, indicating current market liquidity is 1.23 times higher than the average level over the past year [2]. - The PUT-CALL ratio for the SSE 50 ETF options increased to 1.06, reflecting a growing caution among investors regarding the short-term performance of the SSE 50 ETF [2]. - The five-day average turnover rates for the SSE Composite Index and Wind All A were 0.81% and 1.37%, respectively, indicating a decrease in trading activity [2]. Macroeconomic Factors - The onshore and offshore RMB exchange rates experienced slight fluctuations, with weekly changes of -0.03% and 0.14%, respectively [2]. - Recent economic data from the National Bureau of Statistics showed that in May, the industrial added value for large-scale enterprises grew by 5.8% year-on-year, and retail sales of consumer goods increased by 6.4% [2]. - Fixed asset investment for the first five months of the year rose by 3.7% year-on-year, with high-tech manufacturing and digital economy sectors showing significant growth [2]. Technical Analysis - The Wind All A index broke below the SAR point on June 19, indicating a bearish trend [2]. - The market score based on the moving average strength index is currently at 102, which is at the 39.7% percentile since 2021 [2]. - The sentiment model scored 1 out of 5, indicating weak market sentiment, while the trend model signal is positive and the weighted model signal is negative [2]. Market Performance - For the week of June 16-20, the SSE 50 index fell by 0.1%, the CSI 300 index decreased by 0.45%, the CSI 500 index dropped by 1.75%, and the ChiNext index declined by 1.66% [3]. - The overall market PE (TTM) stands at 19.2 times, which is at the 52.3% percentile since 2005 [3]. Factor Observations - The crowding degree for small-cap factors has decreased, with a current score of 0.79 for small-cap factors, -0.14 for low valuation factors, -0.11 for high profitability factors, and 0.00 for high profitability growth factors [3]. - The industry crowding degree is relatively high for sectors such as comprehensive, environmental protection, machinery equipment, banking, and non-ferrous metals, with notable increases in banking and medical biotechnology sectors [3].

Core Viewpoint - The A-share IPO pace has significantly slowed since the implementation of major policies on August 27, 2023, with over 300 new stocks listed in 2023 and only 100 expected in 2024, leading many pre-IPO companies to seek alternative routes to market through mergers and acquisitions (M&A) [1] Group 1: M&A Activity - Since the introduction of the "M&A Six Guidelines" in September 2024, the enthusiasm for M&A in the A-share market has surged, with 25 listed companies actively pursuing acquisitions of pre-IPO firms [1][2] - Among the 25 companies, 12 expect their acquisitions to constitute major asset restructurings, while 13 do not [2] - The majority of these M&A activities are concentrated in high-demand sectors, including electronics, machinery, basic chemicals, and computers [2] Group 2: Payment Methods and Valuations - The "M&A Six Guidelines" encourage the use of various payment methods, including cash, shares, and convertible bonds, to enhance transaction flexibility [2] - Among the disclosed acquisition amounts, the highest is from Wens Foodstuffs Group, at 1.61 billion yuan [2] - The average premium for the acquired targets is approximately 114.14%, with notable valuations such as Zhaoyi Innovation's acquisition of Suzhou Saixin at a premium of 289.48% [8] Group 3: Industry Focus and Trends - The acquired companies predominantly belong to the "double innovation" sector, showcasing significant technological advantages [3] - A substantial 84% of the M&A cases involve transactions within the same industry, indicating a trend towards horizontal and vertical integration [5] - The ongoing M&A activities reflect a broader trend of companies seeking to enhance their technological capabilities and market positions in response to policy support [4][3] Group 4: Strategic Shifts - Companies like Jinyi Culture are exploring strategic transformations, such as moving from jewelry to software services, to adapt to changing market conditions [6][7] - The integration of technology and innovation into business strategies is becoming a mainstream approach among listed companies [7]

小盘股风头无二，今天再次领涨市场。截至午盘，泰和科技、波长光电、三德科技、逸豪新材等纷纷涨停，中证1000和中证2000分别收涨0.51%和0.94%。 指数增强方面，热门产品1000ETF增强（159680）和中证2000增强ETF（159552）分别收涨0.67%和0.45%，今年以来大幅跑赢中证1000、创业板指和沪深 300指数，超额突出。 一个是因为现在政策还没转向，央行大概率继续宽松（比如降息），钱多对小盘股最有利；另一个AI、机器人等产业都是刚起步，增长空间还很大。 而且只要市场波动还在，量化策略就能继续抓超额，今年这种"电风扇行情"反而是1000ETF增强（159680）和中证2000增强ETF（159552）这种增强ETF的 沃土。 主要是因为市场有政策托底，大A很坚挺地立在3000点上方，但是弱现实下大盘股吸引力又不足，相比之下资金更愿意流向小盘股。而且今年流动性持续宽 松，低利率环境有利于小盘股炒作，波动市场也利于指增产品挖掘超额。 另外从申万一级行业分布来看，中证2000指数前五大权重行业依次为：机械设备（11.5%）、电子（9.1%）、计算机（7.8%）、医药生物（6.7%）和基础化 ...

Group 1 - International oil prices have risen significantly, with Brent crude increasing by 2.48% and WTI by 2.7%, both showing over 20% gains since June, primarily driven by the Israel-Iran conflict [3][5] - The oil and gas resource ETF (159309) has seen a substantial inflow of capital, with over 7 million shares net subscribed and a total of over 64 million yuan raised in the past 10 days [1][3] - Major stocks within the oil and gas ETF have experienced significant price increases, with Tongyuan Petroleum rising over 10% and China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC) showing a slight increase of 0.90% [3][4] Group 2 - The geopolitical tensions, particularly the U.S. attacks on Iranian nuclear facilities, have escalated risks in the region, with potential implications for oil supply and prices [5][6] - Goldman Sachs has indicated that while they do not foresee major supply disruptions, the risks of supply decline and price increases have risen, predicting Brent crude could reach around 90 USD per barrel if Iranian oil supply decreases by 1.75 million barrels per day [6][7] - The strategic importance of the Strait of Hormuz is highlighted, as approximately 11% of global maritime trade passes through it, including significant percentages of oil and gas exports [8]

Group 1 - The German government has approved a €46 billion corporate tax reduction plan aimed at revitalizing the economy through tax incentives and measures to enhance international competitiveness and stimulate corporate investment [1][5] - The plan includes three core measures: accelerated depreciation for movable assets, a gradual reduction of corporate income tax from 15% to 10% by 2028, and increased R&D subsidies for large and small enterprises [2][5] - The tax reduction is expected to significantly benefit sectors such as manufacturing, automotive, and technology, providing immediate cash flow support and encouraging investment in automation and green technologies [2][3] Group 2 - The German economy is projected to experience zero growth in 2025, with the current economic cycle showing signs of weakness, influenced by U.S. tariff policies and domestic fiscal stimulus measures [1][3] - The tax reduction plan is part of a broader fiscal reform that includes a €500 billion infrastructure fund aimed at various sectors, marking a shift from strict fiscal conservatism to a more flexible fiscal policy [1][2] - The implementation of the tax reduction plan may face challenges, including potential pressure on fiscal revenues, uncertainty in parliamentary approval, and external trade tensions that could undermine its effectiveness [3][4][5]

2025 年 06 月 22 日 ——北交所策略专题报告 诸海滨（分析师） zhuhaibin@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790522080007 专题：国企改革下相关企业增长潜力有望释放，关注低估值的北证国企股 2024 年 12 月 17 日，国务院国资委发布《关于改进和加强中央企业控股上市公 司市值管理工作的若干意见》，共九条。其中特别指出引导控股上市公司牢固树 立投资者回报意识，增加现金分红频次、优化现金分红节奏、提高现金分红比例； 推动中央企业和控股上市公司建立常态化股票回购增持机制，规范减持行为，积 极解决控股上市公司长期破净问题。截至 2025 年 6 月 20 日，北交所有 6 家央企， 21 家地方国企。从业绩情况来看， 2020-2024 年 27 家北证国企上市公司营收规 模从 156.55 亿元增长至 221.95 亿元，复合增速达 9.12%，其中 2025Q1 营收 50.48 亿元，同比增长 9.43%。2020-2024 年 27 家企业归母净利润规模从 18.61 亿元增 长至 22.19 亿元，复合增速达 4.50%，其中 2025Q1 归母净利润 4.30 亿元，同 ...