Report Industry Investment Rating - PX/PTA/PF/PR neutral [4] Core Viewpoints - The short - term market is range - bound, but the oil market will turn from boom to bust in the second half of the year as global refineries reach their annual peak operating rates and new supplies enter the market. Unless the US increases sanctions on Russia, leading to a significant decline in supply [1]. - The PTA spot processing fee is at a low level. Although the short - term supply - demand situation has improved due to PTA maintenance, it is expected to continue to accumulate inventory slightly in August. Attention should be paid to the dynamics of major suppliers [1][2]. - The polyester load remains firm in the short term, but the terminal demand has not improved significantly. The improvement of the demand side still needs to wait for the seasonal peak - season orders, which may start gradually in late August [2]. - PF is dragged down by downstream production cuts, with low inventory - holding willingness, and the near - month contract is suppressed by the logic of mandatory warehouse receipt cancellation. The PR processing fee is expected to return to the range of 300 - 500 yuan/ton after repair [3][4]. Summary by Directory 1. Price and Basis - Figures show TA and PX main contract trends, basis, and inter - period spreads, as well as PTA East China spot basis and short - fiber basis [9][10][12] 2. Upstream Profits and Spreads - Figures display PX processing fee PXN, PTA spot processing fee, South Korean xylene isomerization profit, and South Korean STDP selective disproportionation profit [18][21] 3. International Spreads and Import - Export Profits - Figures present toluene US - Asia spread, toluene South Korean FOB - Japanese naphtha CFR, and PTA export profit [26][28] 4. Upstream PX and PTA Start - up - Figures show the operating rates of PTA in China, South Korea, and Taiwan, as well as the operating rates of PX in China and Asia [29][32][34] 5. Social Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - Figures display PTA weekly social inventory, PX monthly social inventory, PTA total warehouse receipts + forecast volume, and various warehouse receipt inventories [37][40][41] 6. Downstream Polyester Load - Figures show filament and short - fiber sales, polyester load, and the inventory days and profits of various filaments, as well as the operating rates of weaving, texturing, and dyeing in Jiangsu and Zhejiang [48][50][61] 7. PF Detailed Data - Figures show polyester staple fiber load, factory equity inventory days, physical and equity inventories of 1.4D, regenerated cotton - type staple fiber load, and the operating rates and processing fees of pure polyester yarn and polyester - cotton yarn [71][72][80] 8. PR Fundamental Detailed Data - Figures show polyester bottle - chip load, bottle - chip factory inventory days, spot and export processing fees, export profit, and month - to - month spreads [90][92][99]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views - **Market Analysis**: The closing price of the main EG contract was 4,389 yuan/ton (a change of -16 yuan/ton or -0.36% from the previous trading day), and the spot price in the East China market was 4,455 yuan/ton (a change of -25 yuan/ton or -0.56% from the previous trading day). The spot basis in East China (based on the 2509 contract) was 78 yuan/ton (a month-on-month increase of 5 yuan/ton). The ethylene-based EG production profit was -$49/ton (a month-on-month decrease of $3/ton), and the coal-based syngas EG production profit was 42 yuan/ton (a month-on-month decrease of 24 yuan/ton). The MEG inventory at the main ports in East China was 516,000 tons (a month-on-month decrease of 5,000 tons) according to CCF data and 427,000 tons (a month-on-month decrease of 48,000 tons) according to Longzhong data. The actual arrivals at the main ports last week were 103,000 tons, lower than the planned value, with a slight de-stocking of port inventory. This week, the planned arrivals at the main ports are 138,000 tons, and with concentrated arrivals at secondary ports, the main ports are expected to see inventory accumulation [2]. - **Supply - Demand Logic**: On the supply side, domestically, the syngas - based load of ethylene glycol has returned to a high level and can be further increased. Some EO - EG co - production units are switching from EO to EG. Overseas, the Saudi sharq series of plants have restarted, and the supply of ocean - going cargo is expected to gradually return to normal. On the demand side, there was concentrated restocking at the end - user level in July, relieving the inventory pressure of filament yarns. The polyester load is expected to remain stable in the short term, and attention should be paid to the order connection in August. There will be concentrated arrivals of foreign vessels at the beginning of August, with a slight inventory accumulation in the balance sheet. The port inventory is expected to remain low and slightly increase in August [3]. 3. Strategy - **Unilateral**: Be cautiously bearish due to weakening market sentiment and the decline of coking coal. - **Inter - period**: No strategy. - **Inter - variety**: No strategy [4]. 4. Summary by Directory Price and Basis - Analyzes the closing price of the main EG contract, the spot price in the East China market, and the spot basis in East China [2]. Production Profit and Operating Rate - Covers the ethylene - based EG production profit, coal - based syngas EG production profit, and the overall load of ethylene glycol production [2]. International Price Difference - Analyzes the international price difference between the US FOB and China CFR of ethylene glycol [20]. Downstream Sales, Production, and Operating Rate - Considers the sales and production of filament yarns and short - fiber yarns, as well as the operating rates of polyester, direct - spun filament, polyester staple fiber, and polyester bottle - chip [21][23][25]. Inventory Data - Focuses on the MEG inventory at the main ports in East China, including the inventory data from different sources, actual and planned arrivals, and the inventory situation of different ports [2][34].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report suggests that the ethylene glycol market may be in a volatile pattern. Although the inventory decline and cost - end profit situation may limit the downside, the lack of obvious growth in demand and the decrease in trading volume and positions mean there is no driving force for an upward trend. Therefore, it may fluctuate within a range in the short term [25][26]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Market Summary - **主力合约与基差**: On August 1st, the ethylene glycol futures main - contract price closed at 4,439 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan from the previous trading day, showing a volatile downward trend in the past five days. The East China spot price dropped by 5 yuan to 4,480 yuan/ton, and the basis widened from 49 yuan to 51 yuan. The inter - period spread structure was divided, with the 5 - 9 spread widening by 13 yuan to 49 yuan and the 1 - 5 spread widening by 6 yuan to - 15 yuan [2]. - **持仓与成交**: The trading volume and open interest of the main contract decreased simultaneously. The trading volume decreased by 19.17% to 110,300 lots, and the open interest dropped by 6,030 lots to 239,400 lots, indicating a decline in market participation and short - term trading drive [3]. - **供给端**: The total ethylene glycol operating rate increased slightly by 0.1% to 63.09%, but there was an obvious structural difference. The oil - based operating rate rose by 2.2 percentage points to 66.15%, while the coal - based operating rate dropped by 3 percentage points to 58.48%. All production processes were in the red, with the oil - based profit at - 119.9 dollars/ton and the coal - based profit stably at - 200 yuan/ton [4]. - **需求端**: The load of polyester factories and Jiangsu - Zhejiang looms remained stable at 89.42% and 63.43% respectively, and terminal demand showed no seasonal fluctuations. Weaving enterprises mainly made rigid purchases [5]. - **库存端**: The inventory at the East China main port decreased for two consecutive weeks, down 4.8 tons to 42.72 tons, a decline of 10.06%. The inventory in Zhangjiagang dropped by 13.5% to 12.8 tons. Although the arrival volume increased slightly to 16.87 tons, the improvement in port shipping efficiency promoted inventory clearance, and short - term spot circulation pressure was relieved [6]. 3.2 Industry Chain Price Monitoring - **期货与现货价格**: The main - contract price of ethylene glycol futures decreased by 0.05% to 4,439 yuan/ton, and the East China spot price dropped by 0.11% to 4,480 yuan/ton. The basis decreased by 16.33% [7]. - **价差情况**: The 5 - 9 spread widened by 36.11% to 49 yuan/ton, while the 1 - 5 spread widened by 66.67% to - 15 yuan/ton, and the 9 - 1 spread decreased by 25.93% to - 34 yuan/ton [7]. - **利润情况**: The naphtha - based profit decreased by 2.50% to - 123 dollars/ton, the ethylene - based profit decreased by 2.36% to - 712 yuan/ton, and the coal - based profit decreased by 12.00% to - 224 yuan/ton [7]. - **开工负荷**: The overall ethylene glycol operating rate increased by 0.21% to 63.1%, the coal - based operating rate decreased by 4.93% to 58.5%, and the oil - based operating rate increased by 3.46% to 66.2%. The load of polyester factories and Jiangsu - Zhejiang looms remained unchanged [7]. - **库存与到港量**: The East China main - port inventory decreased by 10.06% to 42.7 tons, the Zhangjiagang inventory decreased by 13.51% to 12.8 tons, and the arrival volume increased by 6.10% to 16.87 tons [7]. 3.3 Industry Dynamics and Interpretation - On August 1st, the price of the East China US - dollar market moved down in the morning and fluctuated slightly in the afternoon, with no transactions reported. - The spot price of the ethylene glycol market in Shaanxi remained stable at around 4,000 yuan/ton for self - pickup. - The mainstream market was weakly sorted, the South China market price remained stable at around 4,550 yuan/ton for delivery. - The coking coal futures market continued to decline, which was negative for the cost end, and the ethylene glycol market followed the downward trend, with the East China price negotiated at around 4,480 yuan/ton [8]. 3.4 Industry Chain Data Charts The report includes charts on the closing price and basis of the ethylene glycol main contract, ethylene glycol production profit, domestic ethylene glycol plant operating rate, downstream polyester plant operating rate, East China main - port inventory statistics, and total industry inventory [9][11][13].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report's industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - PX fundamentals maintain a weak balance, with obvious resilience in terminal demand. In the short - term, PX prices follow the cost of crude oil. In the future, during the peak seasons of "Golden September and Silver October", there is significant potential for demand and production to increase [139]. - For PTA, with large - scale device maintenance plans in August and new device production, the monthly output is expected to change little. Downstream demand provides resilient support. If oil prices are further pressured, TA prices will follow suit. Attention should be paid to demand recovery, tariff implementation progress, and significant oil price fluctuations [139]. - Regarding MEG, the supply is recovering well, and there is still room for domestic production to increase. The downstream demand provides resilient support. The inventory inflection point may arrive, and supply - demand will shift to inventory accumulation. Short - term prices are expected to be weakly adjusted, and subsequent attention should be paid to changes in coal and oil prices [139]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 PX&PTA&MEG Price: Following Crude Oil Price Fluctuations - **Futures Prices**: From July 4 to August 1, 2025, PTA's closing price increased from 4710 yuan/ton to 4744 yuan/ton (a 0.7% increase), MEG's increased from 4277 yuan/ton to 4405 yuan/ton (a 3.0% increase), and PX's increased from 6672 yuan/ton to 6812 yuan/ton (a 2.1% increase) [6]. - **Basis and Spread**: PTA's basis decreased from 97 yuan/ton to - 12 yuan/ton (a - 112.4% change), MEG's basis decreased from 77 yuan/ton to 74 yuan/ton (a - 3.9% change), and PX's basis decreased from 263 yuan/ton to 219 yuan/ton (a - 16.6% change). The TA - EG spread decreased from 433 yuan/ton to 339 yuan/ton (a - 21.7% change), and the TA - PX*0.656 spread decreased from 333 yuan/ton to 275 yuan/ton (a - 17.4% change) [16][19][23]. - **Domestic and Foreign Spreads**: For ethylene glycol, the CFR China price increased by 3.1%, the FOB US Gulf price increased by 6.6%, the FD Northwest Europe price decreased by 7.5%, and the ethylene glycol spread (Europe - China) decreased by 54.6% from July 4 to July 31, 2025 [26]. 3.2 PX&PTA&MEG Supply Situation: Focus on Device Recovery - **PX**: As of August 1, the Asian PX operating load was 73.4% (a 0.4 - percentage - point increase month - on - month), and China's was 81.1% (a 4.5 - percentage - point decrease month - on - month). Some devices had unexpected outages or restarts [34]. - **PTA**: As of August 1, the PTA operating load was 72.6% (a 5.1 - percentage - point decrease month - on - month). New devices were put into production, and some existing devices were under maintenance [38]. - **MEG**: As of August 1, the overall operating load of ethylene glycol in mainland China was 68.64% (a 0.97 - percentage - point decrease month - on - month), and the operating load of synthetic - gas - based ethylene glycol was 74.04% (a 5.79 - percentage - point increase month - on - month). Some overseas devices were scheduled for maintenance [52][56]. 3.3 PX&PTA&MEG Import and Export Situation: High Global Trade Concerns - **PX**: In June 2025, China imported 76.54 million tons of PX, a 0.94% decrease from the previous month. The cumulative import volume from January to June was 450.03 million tons, a 2.38% increase year - on - year [60]. - **PTA**: In June 2025, China exported 25.52 million tons of PTA, a 3.78% decrease from the previous month. The cumulative export volume from January to June was 185.68 million tons, a 16.90% decrease year - on - year [61]. - **MEG**: In June 2025, China's monthly import volume of ethylene glycol was 61.78 million tons, a 2.34% increase month - on - month and a 1.30% decrease year - on - year. The cumulative import volume increased by 19.91% year - on - year [62]. - **Polyester**: In June 2025, the total export volume of polyester products was 124.9 million tons. The cumulative export volume from January to June was 719.2 million tons, a 17% year - on - year increase [66]. 3.4 PX&PTA&MEG Inventory Situation: Increase in Downstream Finished - Product Inventory - **PTA**: Polyester factories' PTA raw material inventory increased, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased [77]. - **MEG**: As of July 28, the port inventory in the main eastern China ports was about 52.1 million tons, and the inventory accumulation was postponed [80]. 3.5 Polyester Demand Situation: Terminal Demand Underperforms Expectations - **Domestic Polyester Data**: As of August 1, 2025, the polyester operating load was 88.1%, a 2.3% decrease from July 4. The inventory days and cash - flow of some products also changed [83]. - **Textile and Apparel Exports**: In June 2025, textile and apparel exports were 273.1 billion US dollars, a 0.1% year - on - year decrease. From January to June, the cumulative export was 1439.8 billion US dollars, an 0.8% increase [98]. 3.6 PX&PTA&MEG Positioning Situation - **Futures Positions**: On August 1, 2025, compared with July 4, PTA's total position decreased by 202,221 hands, MEG's decreased by 4207 hands, and PX's increased by 23,384 hands [113].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - Most products are rated as "Cautiously Bearish", including LPG, L, PP, PVC, PX, PTA, ethylene glycol, glass, soda ash, caustic soda, urea, propylene [1][2] - Some products are rated as "Bearish", such as methanol and asphalt [2] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - For most products, the market is facing various pressures such as supply increase, weak demand, and lack of macro - positive factors, leading to a downward or cautious outlook [1][2] - For example, in the case of crude oil, OPEC+ production increase and the entry into the second half of the peak season put pressure on oil prices [3][6] Group 3: Summaries by Product Crude Oil - **Market Performance**: On August 1, international oil prices fell. WTI dropped 2.79%, Brent dropped 2.83%, and SC dropped 0.73% [5] - **Basic Logic**: OPEC+ decided to increase production in September, and the peak season is in the second half, so the oil price center may decline [6] - **Fundamentals**: OPEC+ will increase production by 54.7 million barrels per day in September, and US crude oil production in May increased by 2.4 million barrels per day. US commercial crude oil and strategic crude oil reserves increased [7] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Partially close short positions. Pay attention to the range of SC [505 - 520] [8] LPG - **Market Performance**: On August 1, the PG main contract closed at 3987 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.70% [11] - **Basic Logic**: The cost - end oil price fell, and Saudi Arabia lowered the CP contract price. Although the fundamentals are okay, the cost - end is the main drag [12] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Try short positions lightly. Pay attention to the range of PG [3850 - 3950] [13] L - **Market Performance**: L2509 contract closed at 7317 yuan/ton (down 33 yuan). The North China basis was - 97 (down 7) [17] - **Basic Logic**: The market returns to weak fundamentals. Most devices restarted, increasing supply pressure. Social inventory has increased for 5 consecutive weeks [19] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions, and industrial customers can sell hedging [19] PP - **Market Performance**: PP2509 closed at 6098 yuan/ton (down 20 yuan), and the East China basis was 19 (up 13) [24] - **Basic Logic**: Supply and demand are both weak, and there is still pressure to reduce inventory. New production capacity will be released in the third quarter, and downstream replenishment is insufficient [26] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions or conduct a 9 - 1 positive spread [26] PVC - **Market Performance**: V2601 closed at 5015 yuan/ton (down 26 yuan), and the Changzhou basis was - 95 (down 4) [31] - **Basic Logic**: The market returns to weak fundamentals. New devices are put into operation, and demand is in the off - season. Social inventory has increased for 6 consecutive weeks [32] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions. Pay attention to the range of V [4900 - 5100] [32] PX - **Market Performance**: On August 1, the spot price of PX in East China was 7015 yuan/ton, and the PX09 contract closed at 6812 yuan/ton (down 116 yuan) [36] - **Basic Logic**: Supply and demand are in a tight balance, inventory is high, and there is no macro - positive factor recently [37] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Reduce long positions, sell call options, and pay attention to buying opportunities on pullbacks. Pay attention to the range of PX [6720 - 6840] [38] PTA - **Market Performance**: On August 1, PTA in East China was 4740 yuan/ton (down 86 yuan); TA09 closed at 4744 yuan/ton (down 64 yuan) [40] - **Basic Logic**: Supply pressure is expected to increase, demand is weak, and the tight - balance situation in August is expected to ease [41] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Reduce long positions, sell call options, and pay attention to the possibility of expanding the processing fee. Pay attention to the range of TA [4720 - 4800] [42] Ethylene Glycol (MEG) - **Market Performance**: On August 1, the spot price of ethylene glycol in East China was 4480 yuan/ton (down 12 yuan); EG09 closed at 4405 yuan/ton (down 9 yuan) [44] - **Basic Logic**: Domestic and foreign devices have slightly increased their loads, but arrivals and imports are still low. Demand is in the off - season, and inventory is low [45] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions (partially reduce), sell call options, and pay attention to low - buying opportunities. Pay attention to the range of EG [4340 - 4410] [46] Glass - **Market Performance**: The spot market price decreased, and the futures price center moved down [49] - **Basic Logic**: There is no super - expected policy in the Politburo meeting, and the manufacturing PMI is below the boom - bust line. Inventory is mainly transferred, not consumed by the terminal market [50] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Pay attention to the range of FG [1070 - 1130] [51] Soda Ash - **Market Performance**: The spot price of heavy soda ash was stable, and the futures price rose. The basis weakened, and the number of warehouse receipts increased [54] - **Basic Logic**: The hype of macro - policies has cooled down, and the supply - demand surplus pattern has not improved significantly. Warehouse receipts and forecasts increase, and industrial hedging exerts pressure [55] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Wait patiently for the pullback to be in place [55] Caustic Soda - **Market Performance**: The spot price decreased, and the futures price closed down. The basis weakened, and the number of warehouse receipts increased [59] - **Basic Logic**: Supply - side device maintenance led to a decline in industry start - up. Downstream alumina plants resumed production, but inventory is high year - on - year [60] - **Strategy Recommendation**: None provided in the text Methanol - **Market Performance**: On August 1, the spot price of methanol in East China was 2385 yuan/ton (down 10 yuan), and the main 09 contract closed at 2393 yuan/ton (down 12 yuan) [62] - **Basic Logic**: Domestic and foreign devices resumed production, increasing supply pressure. Demand is expected to weaken, and social inventory is accumulating [63] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Reduce long positions, pay attention to short - selling opportunities at high levels, and sell call options. Pay attention to the range of MA [2350 - 2400] [64] Asphalt - **Basic Logic**: The cost - end oil price has room to decline, supply increases, and demand decreases, and the inventory is accumulating [2] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Try short positions lightly. Pay attention to the range of BU [3550 - 3650] [2] Propylene - **Basic Logic**: Supply and demand are loose, and the inventory is at a high level in the same period [2] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions or conduct a 1 - 2 reverse spread, and go long on the PP processing fee on the futures market [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Views of the Report - In July, the ethylene glycol (EG) price rose and then slightly declined, with the spot basis oscillating downward. The price was influenced by factors such as anti - involution policy expectations, coal price fluctuations, port inventory, and typhoon - affected shipping schedules [2][10]. - Domestic supply of EG is expected to increase. In 2025, 160 million tons of new MEG devices are expected to be put into production, and the EG load steadily recovered in July, with the syngas - based load likely to further increase in August [3][13]. - Overseas supply shows different trends in various regions. The total EG imports from July to September are estimated to be 67, 60, and 65 million tons respectively, mainly due to the growth of supplies from Saudi Arabia and Malaysia [4][37][38]. - In July, the weaving and texturing load first dropped rapidly and then rebounded slightly. The polyester load decreased slightly at the beginning of the month but remained relatively stable. The demand side is expected to improve with the arrival of the seasonal peak season in late August [5][69]. - In July, the EG balance sheet is expected to have a slight inventory build - up of about 4 million tons, and in August, it is expected to have a slight build - up of about 8 million tons, with the East China port inventory expected to remain low and slightly increase [6][55]. - The trading strategy suggests a cautious and bearish stance on the unilateral position due to weakening market sentiment and coal price decline. There are no suggestions for cross - variety and cross - period strategies [7]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs EG Price and Basis Structure Review - In July, the EG price rose and then slightly declined, and the spot basis oscillated downward. The price was affected by macro - sentiment improvement, coal price rebound, and later by factors such as coal position limits, port low inventory, and oil price rebound [2][10]. EG Domestic Fundamental - **EG Subsequent Domestic New - added Capacity**: In 2025, 160 million tons of new MEG devices are expected to be put into production. The 60 - million - ton Sichuan Zhengdakai device was put into production in May, and the remaining two sets are expected to be put into production in Q4 [3][13]. - **EG Operating Rate and Monthly Maintenance Forecast**: The EG load steadily recovered in July at a rate lower than expected. The syngas - based load has returned to a relatively high level, and it is expected to further increase in August under high - profit conditions, leading to an increase in domestic EG supply [3][15]. - **China EG Weekly Maintenance Forecast**: No specific content in the provided text, only the title is given. EG Outer - Market Situation - **Overseas EG Monthly Maintenance Forecast**: In North America, most devices restarted in July, but US imports decreased due to tariffs. Canadian devices operate normally, and the Shell 50 - million - ton/year device plans a 45 - day maintenance in September. In the Middle East, Saudi devices restarted in June but had power - related shutdowns in July. Iranian imports are expected to be 9 million tons in July, 6 million tons in August, and rebound in September. In Asia, Malaysian devices restarted, and Taiwan devices operate at full - load. South Korean imports are relatively low [37][38]. - **Overseas EG Weekly Maintenance Forecast**: No specific content in the provided text, only the title is given. - **EG International Price Difference**: No specific analysis content in the provided text, only the title and some related chart information are given. EG Inventory Trend - In July, the EG balance sheet is expected to have a slight inventory build - up of about 4 million tons, with a slight decrease in port visible inventory and an increase in invisible inventory. In August, with increased domestic supply and decreased imports, a slight build - up of about 8 million tons is expected, and the East China port inventory is expected to remain low and slightly increase [6][55]. Downstream Weaving and Polyester Situation - In July, the weaving and texturing load first dropped rapidly and then rebounded slightly. The polyester load decreased slightly at the beginning of the month but remained relatively stable. Currently, orders have not improved significantly, and the reduction in filament inventory is mainly due to downstream transfer. However, the short - term reduction pressure on polyester load has decreased, and the demand side is expected to improve with the arrival of the seasonal peak season in late August [5][69].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints - The theme of the chemical sector in the early stage was the rectification expectation of plants in operation for over 20 years. The capacity of such plants accounted for 16% in pure benzene and 6% in styrene, especially in BZ. However, with the decline in coking coal prices, the atmosphere in the chemical sector weakened, leading to price corrections in BZ and EB. - At the beginning of the week, BZ port inventory continued to consolidate without further accumulation. The short - term downstream demand for BZ was acceptable, but port inventory pressure and the pressure of shipments from South Korea to China still existed. - For styrene, port inventory continued to rise at the beginning of the week, with the inventory accumulation rate unchanged. The EB port basis remained weak, and the inter - period spread continued to weaken. The domestic EB operation rate was still at a relatively high level. The operation rates of the three major hard plastics increased, the PS inventory pressure continued to ease, while ABS still had inventory pressure. The fundamentals of styrene were weaker than those of pure benzene [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Pure Benzene and EB's Basis Structure and Inter - period Spread - Pure benzene: The main basis of pure benzene was - 221 yuan/ton (+71), and the spread between East China pure benzene spot and M2 was - 70 yuan/ton (+15 yuan/ton) [1]. - Styrene: The main basis of styrene was 12 yuan/ton (+59 yuan/ton), and the EB port basis remained weak with the inter - period spread continuing to weaken [2][3]. 2. Production Profits and Domestic - Foreign Spreads of Pure Benzene and Styrene - Pure benzene: The CFR China processing fee was 185 dollars/ton (+10 dollars/ton), the FOB South Korea processing fee was 170 dollars/ton (+9 dollars/ton), and the US - South Korea spread was 106.0 dollars/ton (-13.0 dollars/ton). The production profits of downstream products such as caprolactam, phenol - acetone, and adipic acid changed, with caprolactam at - 1830 yuan/ton (+165), phenol - acetone at - 667 yuan/ton (+25), and adipic acid at - 1427 yuan/ton (+109) [1]. - Styrene: The non - integrated production profit was - 168 yuan/ton (-122 yuan/ton) and was expected to gradually compress. The production profits of downstream hard plastics EPS, PS, and ABS increased, with EPS at 254 yuan/ton (+168 yuan/ton), PS at - 46 yuan/ton (+118 yuan/ton), and ABS at 273 yuan/ton (+141 yuan/ton) [2]. 3. Inventory and Operation Rates of Pure Benzene and Styrene - Pure benzene: The port inventory was 17.00 tons (-0.10 tons), and the operation rate information was not clearly summarized in the given text [1]. - Styrene: The East China port inventory was 164,000 tons (+13,300 tons), the East China commercial inventory was 67,500 tons (+11,300 tons), and the operation rate was 78.8% (+0.5%) [2]. 4. Operation and Production Profits of Styrene's Downstream - EPS: The operation rate was 55.21% (+2.02%), and the production profit was 254 yuan/ton (+168 yuan/ton). - PS: The operation rate was 51.60% (+1.00%), and the production profit was - 46 yuan/ton (+118 yuan/ton). - ABS: The operation rate was 66.82% (+0.92%), and the production profit was 273 yuan/ton (+141 yuan/ton). The downstream operation was at a seasonal low [2]. 5. Operation and Production Profits of Pure Benzene's Downstream - Caprolactam: The operation rate was 90.90% (-0.83%), and the production profit was - 1830 yuan/ton (+165). - Phenol: The operation rate was 78.00% (-3.00%), and the production profit of phenol - acetone was - 667 yuan/ton (+25). - Aniline: The operation rate was 73.66% (+0.77%), and the production profit was - 113 yuan/ton (-16). - Adipic acid: The operation rate was 64.80% (+0.00%), and the production profit was - 1427 yuan/ton (+109) [1]. Strategies - Unilateral: Hold a wait - and - see attitude for both pure benzene and styrene. - Basis and inter - period: For near - month BZ paper goods and distant - end BZ2603 futures, conduct reverse arbitrage when the price is high; conduct reverse arbitrage for the EB2509 - 2510 inter - period spread. - Cross - variety: Short the EB - BZ spread when the spread is high [4].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; Inter - period: None; Inter - variety: None [3] Core View - The closing price of the main EG contract was 4,351 yuan/ton (up 29 yuan/ton or 0.67% from the previous trading day), and the spot price in the East China market was 4,385 yuan/ton (down 14 yuan/ton or 0.32% from the previous trading day). The spot basis of EG in East China (based on the 2509 contract) was 70 yuan/ton (up 2 yuan/ton month - on - month). Due to the unexpected load reduction of Zhejiang Petrochemical, the shutdown of several plants in Saudi Arabia due to power issues, and the postponed restart of Satellite Petrochemical's 900,000 - ton/year ethylene glycol plant, the supply improvement at home and abroad was lower than expected, leading to a rebound in EG prices [1]. - The production profit of ethylene - based EG was -$56/ton (down $2/ton month - on - month), and that of coal - based syngas EG was 38 yuan/ton (down 9 yuan/ton month - on - month) [1]. - According to CCF data, the inventory at the main ports in East China was 553,000 tons (down 27,000 tons month - on - month); according to Longzhong data, it was 481,000 tons (down 61,000 tons month - on - month). The actual arrival at the main ports last week was 96,000 tons, with a slight reduction in port inventory. The planned arrival at the main ports in East China this week is 45,000 tons, but the planned arrival at the secondary ports is concentrated at 65,000 tons [1]. - On the supply side, the peak maintenance period in China has passed, and domestic ethylene glycol production is on the rise. Overseas, the supply is expected to be loose as overseas plants restart. However, in July, the actual supply recovery at home and abroad was lower than expected due to the load reduction of Zhejiang Petrochemical and the slow restart in Saudi Arabia. On the demand side, it is in the off - season, with high terminal inventory and low restocking willingness, and the demand is expected to be weak. The short - term supply - demand structure in July is still good, but the inventory accumulation pressure increases in late July [2] Summary by Directory Price and Basis - The closing price of the main EG contract was 4,351 yuan/ton (up 29 yuan/ton or 0.67% from the previous trading day), and the spot price in the East China market was 4,385 yuan/ton (down 14 yuan/ton or 0.32% from the previous trading day). The spot basis of EG in East China (based on the 2509 contract) was 70 yuan/ton (up 2 yuan/ton month - on - month) [1] Production Profit and Operating Rate - The production profit of ethylene - based EG was -$56/ton (down $2/ton month - on - month), and that of coal - based syngas EG was 38 yuan/ton (down 9 yuan/ton month - on - month) [1] International Spread - No specific data or analysis on international spread is provided in the current content, only the figure "Figure 9: Ethylene glycol international spread: US FOB - China CFR" is mentioned [19] Downstream Production and Sales and Operating Rate - No specific data or analysis on downstream production, sales, and operating rate is provided in the current content, only relevant figures such as "Figure 10: Filament production and sales", "Figure 11: Staple fiber production and sales" are mentioned [20] Inventory Data - According to CCF data, the inventory at the main ports in East China was 553,000 tons (down 27,000 tons month - on - month); according to Longzhong data, it was 481,000 tons (down 61,000 tons month - on - month). The actual arrival at the main ports last week was 96,000 tons, with a slight reduction in port inventory. The planned arrival at the main ports in East China this week is 45,000 tons, but the planned arrival at the secondary ports is concentrated at 65,000 tons [1]

化工日报 | 2025-07-17 缺乏驱动，PX/PTA跟随成本波动 市场要闻与数据 1、市场预期三房巷PTA新装置提前至7月17日附近投产。 2、近期市场缺乏驱动，PX/PTA跟随成本波动 市场分析 成本端，原油维持强现实、弱预期，近日原油市场消息面较为平淡，中期基本面预期依然不佳。 PX方面，上上个交易日PXN254美元/吨(环比变动-0.75美元/吨）。近期在PTA基差以及加工差大幅压缩后，PTA工 厂连续出售PX压价，PXN压缩。PX当前缺乏更多的供应端利好,供需面不及前期强势,但在需求端没有明显利空的 情况下，低库存下PXN继续下降空间也有限。 TA方面，TA主力合约现货基差 11 元/吨(环比变动+2元/吨），PTA现货加工费204元/吨（环比变动+27元/吨），主力 合约盘面加工费364元/吨（环比变动+7元/吨），伴随主流供应商出货和下游负荷下降，同时7月PTA装置检修不多， 另外三房巷装置计划投产，PTA基差快速走低，PTA自身基本面偏弱，关注低加工费下的检修增加可能。 需求方面，聚酯开工率88.8%（环比-1.4%），内外销进入淡季，终端订单和开工加速下滑，坯布库存再度累积至高 位；聚酯 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2024, the panda bond market continued to be hot, with the annual issuance volume reaching a new high, and the market is expected to remain active in 2025 [1][17] - The development of the panda bond market is driven by factors such as the low - cost financing advantage of RMB, the improvement of relevant systems, and the increase in foreign investment participation [1][2] Summary According to Related Content 2024 Review - **Issuance Scale and Structure**: In 2024, 44 entities issued 109 panda bonds, with a total issuance scale of 194.8 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 26.1%. The proportion of pure foreign issuers rose from about 20% in 2023 to nearly 40%. The proportion of bonds with a term of 5 years and above exceeded 20%, and the proportion of bonds with a single - issue scale of over 25 billion yuan rose from 25% to 50% [1] - **Regional and Industry Diversity**: Since 2023, panda bond issuers have covered five continents globally, with new issuers from South America in 2024. The issuer industries include finance, consumption, industry, etc., with new sub - industries such as pulp and original research drugs [1] - **Investment - side Changes**: The proportion of foreign investors and foreign banks in panda bond investment increased from 20% in 2023 to nearly 50% in 2024, due to RMB internationalization, good issuer qualifications, and yield advantages [2] 2024 Highlights - **BASF's First Panda Bond**: In June 2024, BASF issued a 2 - billion - yuan panda bond with a final coupon rate of 2.39%, using an optimized pricing and allocation mechanism [10][11] - **Suzano's First Panda Bond in Latin America**: In November 2024, Suzano issued a 1.2 - billion - yuan green panda bond, highlighting the deepening of China - Brazil bilateral financial cooperation [12] - **UOB's Return and Listing on SGX**: In October 2024, UOB issued a 5 - billion - yuan panda bond, and it was listed on the Singapore Exchange in November, the first panda bond to be listed outside the Greater China region [13] - **Beijing Enterprises' 10 - year Panda Bond**: In April 2024, Beijing Enterprises issued a 2 - billion - yuan 10 - year panda bond, setting multiple market records and forming a relatively complete bond valuation system [14] - **CapitaLand's Sustainable - linked Panda Bonds**: In 2024, CapitaLand issued two phases of panda bonds totaling 2 billion yuan, the first being a sustainable - linked panda bond from a Singaporean enterprise, which helps achieve sustainability goals [16] 2025 Outlook - **Issuance Scale**: The panda bond issuance scale is expected to remain high in 2025, with regular issuers likely to increase issuance frequency, issue long - term bonds, and diversify issuance varieties [17] - **Issuer Structure**: The proportion of pure foreign issuers may further increase, and more issuers from regions such as Africa, the Middle East, and Latin America are expected to enter the market [18] - **Investment - side Trends**: Foreign investors are expected to maintain high enthusiasm for investing in panda bonds due to the optimization of investment mechanisms, and the investment value of panda bonds is expected to be further demonstrated [20] Rating Market - In 2024, China Chengxin International maintained a leading position in the panda bond rating market, with a comprehensive market share of 54% and 70% in the pure foreign issuer rating market [21]