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化工日报:沙特装置大面积短停,EG尾盘上涨-20250702
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-07-02 05:23
Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral, short - term weak performance under increasing supply and decreasing demand, but limited downside space [3] - Inter - period: None [3] - Inter - variety: None [3] Core Viewpoints - Yesterday, the closing price of the main EG contract was 4,273 yuan/ton (+6 yuan/ton, +0.14% compared to the previous trading day), the spot price of EG in the East China market was 4,328 yuan/ton (-7 yuan/ton, -0.16% compared to the previous trading day), and the spot basis of EG in East China (based on the 2509 contract) was 69 yuan/ton (+5 yuan/ton month - on - month) [1] - Due to power issues, four sets of Saudi Arabian devices had a large - scale short - stop, with a total capacity of 2.15 million tons, and are expected to resume operation within 1 - 2 weeks. Affected by this news, EG prices rose in the late trading session [1] - The production profit of ethylene - to - EG was - 79 US dollars/ton (unchanged month - on - month), and the production profit of coal - to - syngas - to - EG was 9 yuan/ton (- 8 yuan/ton month - on - month) [1] - According to CCF data released every Monday, the inventory of MEG at the main ports in East China was 545,000 tons (- 77,000 tons month - on - month); according to Longzhong data released every Thursday, the inventory was 506,000 tons (- 31,000 tons month - on - month). The actual arrival at the main ports last week was 67,000 tons, and the port inventory decreased significantly. The planned arrival at the East China main ports this week is 150,000 tons, and the port inventory may rise again [1] - On the supply side, domestic supply is gradually recovering, and the short - term supply - demand structure still shows a benign inventory reduction. However, after the warehouse receipts are gradually cancelled and flow out, the transferable spot in the market will be supplemented to a certain extent. Overseas supply is expected to be loose as overseas devices are gradually restarting, and foreign ships will arrive in a concentrated manner at the beginning of July. On the demand side, the current situation is strong, but several major bottle chip manufacturers have concentrated maintenance plans at the beginning of July, and the demand is expected to be weak. Attention should be paid to the actual implementation [2] Summary by Directory Price and Basis - The closing price of the main EG contract was 4,273 yuan/ton (+6 yuan/ton, +0.14% compared to the previous trading day), the spot price of EG in the East China market was 4,328 yuan/ton (-7 yuan/ton, -0.16% compared to the previous trading day), and the spot basis of EG in East China (based on the 2509 contract) was 69 yuan/ton (+5 yuan/ton month - on - month) [1] Production Profit and Operating Rate - The production profit of ethylene - to - EG was - 79 US dollars/ton (unchanged month - on - month), and the production profit of coal - to - syngas - to - EG was 9 yuan/ton (- 8 yuan/ton month - on - month) [1] International Spread - Not elaborated in the text Downstream Production and Sales and Operating Rate - Not elaborated in the text Inventory Data - According to CCF data released every Monday, the inventory of MEG at the main ports in East China was 545,000 tons (- 77,000 tons month - on - month); according to Longzhong data released every Thursday, the inventory was 506,000 tons (- 31,000 tons month - on - month). The actual arrival at the main ports last week was 67,000 tons, and the port inventory decreased significantly. The planned arrival at the East China main ports this week is 150,000 tons, and the port inventory may rise again [1]
化工周报:关注地缘冲突演变对成本端的支撑-20250622
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-06-22 08:43
化工周报 | 2025-06-22 关注地缘冲突演变对成本端的支撑 核心观点 市场分析 成本端,本周油价受中东地缘升温影响大幅上涨,以色列袭击伊朗石油、天然气等能源基础设施,而后伊朗导弹 还击,近期关注地缘变化,如果伊以冲突对能源设施的破坏加剧,甚至对霍尔木兹海峡产生影响,则油价面临进 一步的上行风险。如果事态控制在一定程度内,各方寻求和谈,则地缘溢价可能会再度回落。 汽油和芳烃方面,近期美国汽油裂解再度回撤,在新能源替代的背景下预计汽油裂解价差上涨空间有限,今年的 调油需求已不值得过多的期待,国内外间歇性调油需求依靠石脑油基本可以满足,限制芳烃进入汽油池的积极性。 芳烃方面,3~5月韩国出口到美国的芳烃调油料甲苯+MX+PX有明显下降,近期关注利润恢复下PX短流程装置恢复 情况,短流程利润修复下,PX 工厂重新开始外采 MX 。 PX方面,本周中国 PX 开工率85.6%(环比上周-0.2%),亚洲 PX 开工率74.3%(环比上周-1.3%)。本周国内PX 负荷基本持稳,海外方面装置变动相对较多,中东地缘冲突导致伊朗、以色列PX装置停车,沙特Rabigh芳烃装置 重启延后, 海外PX开工下滑相对明显。月底 ...
化工日报:伊朗EG装置停车增多,EG价格上行-20250618
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-06-18 03:26
化工日报 | 2025-06-18 伊朗EG装置停车增多,EG价格上行 核心观点 市场分析 生产利润方面:乙烯制EG生产利润为-40美元/吨(环比-3美元/吨),煤制合成气制EG生产利润为117元/吨(环比+11 元/吨)。 库存方面:根据 CCF 每周一发布的数据,MEG 华东主港库存为61.6万吨(环比-1.8万吨);根据隆众每周四发布 的数据, MEG 华东主港库存为56.4万吨(环比-3.4万吨)。上周主港实际到货总数10.8万吨,港口库存平稳略增; 本周华东主港计划到港总数10.0万吨,中性,港口库存预计平稳,关注伊朗装置停车下到港节奏变化。 整体基本面供需逻辑: 供应端,6月国内供应端陆续恢复,整体负荷不高,全月供需结构依旧表现良性去库,但 是仓单陆续注销流出后场内可流转现货将得到一定补充;海外供应方面,关注地缘冲突下伊朗装置停车后到港节 奏变化;需求端,瓶片工厂新增检修计划,需求预期偏弱。后续关注原料大幅反弹后聚酯的减产动作以及乙二醇 大装置重启进度。 策略 单边:短期偏多,关注中东地缘冲突进一步演变 跨期:无 跨品种:无 风险 原油价格波动,煤价大幅波动,宏观政策超预期 期现货方面:昨日EG主 ...
伊朗EG装置意外停车,关注地缘冲突演变
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-06-17 03:04
Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. 2) Core Views - **Market Analysis**: The closing price of the EG main contract was 4,374 yuan/ton (+40 yuan/ton, +0.92% compared to the previous trading day), and the spot price in the East China market was 4,437 yuan/ton (+11 yuan/ton, +0.25%). Due to the Israel-Iran conflict, two EG plants in Iran with a total capacity of 950,000 tons unexpectedly shut down, leading to an increase in EG prices on Monday. The production profit of ethylene - based EG was -$38/ton (up $9/ton), and that of coal - based syngas EG was 106 yuan/ton (up 79 yuan/ton). The inventory data from different sources showed a decline, and the port inventory was expected to be stable. The supply in June in China was gradually recovering, and the overall load was not high. Overseas supply was affected by the situation in Iran. The demand decreased due to polyester production cuts [1][2]. - **Strategy**: The short - term strategy for a single position is bullish, and attention should be paid to the further evolution of the Middle East geopolitical conflict. There are no strategies for inter - period or cross - variety trading [3]. 3) Summary by Directory Price and Basis - The closing price of the EG main contract was 4,374 yuan/ton (+40 yuan/ton, +0.92% compared to the previous trading day), and the spot price in the East China market was 4,437 yuan/ton (+11 yuan/ton, +0.25%). The East China spot basis (based on the 2509 contract) was 86 yuan/ton (up 5 yuan/ton) [1]. Production Profit and Operating Rate - The production profit of ethylene - based EG was -$38/ton (up $9/ton), and that of coal - based syngas EG was 106 yuan/ton (up 79 yuan/ton). The report also mentioned relevant profit data for other production methods and the overall and syngas - based operating rates of EG [1][10]. International Spread - The report presented the international spread of ethylene glycol (US FOB - China CFR) [20]. Downstream Sales, Production, and Operating Rate - It covered the sales and production of filaments and staple fibers, as well as the operating rates of polyester, direct - spun filaments, polyester staple fibers, and polyester chips [21][23]. Inventory Data - According to CCF data on Mondays, the MEG inventory at the main ports in East China was 616,000 tons (down 18,000 tons), and according to Longzhong data on Thursdays, it was 564,000 tons (down 34,000 tons). The actual arrivals at the main ports last week were 108,000 tons, and the planned arrivals this week were 100,000 tons. The port inventory was expected to be stable [2].
冠通每日交易策略-20250530
Guan Tong Qi Huo· 2025-05-30 12:14
地址:北京市朝阳区朝阳门外大街甲 6 号万通中心 D 座 20 层(100020) 总机:010-8535 6666 冠通每日交易策略 制作日期:2025 年 5 月 30 日 热点品种 碳酸锂: 今日碳酸锂开盘后高位震荡,收盘价 59883.02 元/吨,涨幅 1.35%。SMM 电池级 碳酸锂指数价格 60901 元/吨,环比上一工作日下跌 332 元/吨;电池级碳酸锂 5.94-6.2 万元/吨,均价 6.07 万元/吨,环比上一工作日下跌 200 元/吨;工业 级碳酸锂 5.86-5.96 万元/吨,均价 5.91 万元/吨,环比上一工作日下跌 200 元 /吨,碳酸锂现货成交价格重心持续下移。供给端短期碳酸锂供需维持过剩格局 延续,五月份天气转暖盐湖端开工率将季节性提高,预计国内盐湖产量将逐步抬 升,中期供应减弱,据 Mysteel,近期江西某锂盐企业预计 6 月停产检修 1 个厂, 检修时长 4 个月,预计每月影响碳酸锂月产量约 1500 吨,供给预计下降,缓解 供应压力。需求端中美关税政策变化,在关税豁免 90 天内,利好储能电池出口 预期,缓冲碳酸锂需求疲软的情况,但难以改变产业现状。库存端即 ...
银河期货原油期货早报-20250527
Yin He Qi Huo· 2025-05-27 02:48
2025 年 5 月 27 日 银河能化-20250527 早报 【交易策略】 【银河期货】原油期货早报(25-05-27) 【市场回顾】 原油结算价:NYMEX 原油期货因美国阵亡将士纪念日假期休市一天,无结算价; Brent2507 合约 64.74 跌 0.04 美元/桶,环比-0.06%。中国 INE 原油期货主力合约 2507 涨 1.7 至 456.4 元/桶,夜盘跌 0.5 至 455.9 元/桶。Brent 主力-次行价差 0.61 美金/桶。 【相关资讯】 截止 5 月 20 日当周,交易商在纽约商品交易所和伦敦洲际交易所美国轻质原油和布伦特 原油期货和期权持有的净多头总计 244665 手,比前一周减少 631 手;相当于减少 63.1 万 桶原油。 美国总统特朗普表示,俄罗斯总统普京对乌克兰发动了战争开始以来最大规模空袭,已经 "完全疯了",并表示他正在考虑对莫斯科实施新的制裁。克里姆林宫表示可能是情绪过载 导致如此言论。特朗普也抨击了乌克兰总统泽连斯基,称他"说的每一句话都在制造问 题"。 一位巴勒斯坦官员表示,哈马斯已同意美国中东问题特使威特科夫提出的加沙停火建议, 但一位以色列官员 ...
纯苯的消费及贸易格局
Guo Tou Qi Huo· 2025-05-20 12:15
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - In 2024, global pure benzene consumption exceeded 65 million tons per year, with China being the largest consumer and importer, consuming over 25 million tons and having almost no exports [1]. - The five major downstream products of pure benzene (styrene, caprolactam, phenol, aniline, and adipic acid) account for about 95% of domestic benzene demand [1]. - Over the past five years, the consumption of pure benzene by the five major downstream industries has increased, mainly driven by the expansion of downstream product capacities [3]. - Globally, Western Europe, China, and the United States are the main importers of pure benzene, while Eastern Europe, the Middle East, India, Southeast Asia, Japan, South Korea, Canada, and South America are net exporters [7]. - South Korea is the world's largest exporter of pure benzene, with its exports to China and the United States increasing significantly in recent years [9]. - China's pure benzene imports have been rising year - by - year due to strong downstream demand, and South Korea is the largest source of imports [11]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Pure Benzene Consumption 1.1 Domestic Pure Benzene Consumption by Downstream Industry Distribution - Styrene is the main downstream product of pure benzene, consuming over 12 million tons in 2024, accounting for over 40% of domestic pure benzene consumption [1]. - Caprolactam and phenol together consumed about 10 million tons of benzene in 2024, aniline about 3.5 million tons, and adipic acid less than 2 million tons [1]. - The consumption growth of the five major downstream industries in the past five years was driven by capacity expansion, such as the growth of styrene and phenol capacities and the expansion of caprolactam capacity due to increased demand in related industries [3]. 1.2 Pure Benzene Consumption by Regional Distribution - East China is the largest domestic pure benzene consumption market, with a demand share of nearly 60% in 2024 and showing high - speed growth [5]. - North China, Northeast China, and South China had similar consumption volumes of about 2.5 million tons in 2024, and South China had a relatively fast consumption growth rate in the past five years due to the growth of local styrene capacity [5]. - The total benzene consumption in other domestic regions was about 3 million tons in 2024 [5]. 2. Pure Benzene Trade Pattern 2.1 Pure Benzene International Trade - Western Europe, China, and the United States are major importers, while Eastern Europe, the Middle East, India, Southeast Asia, Japan, South Korea, Canada, and South America are net exporters [7]. - The most active trade areas are Asian countries' exports to China and the pure benzene arbitrage between South Korea and the United States [7]. - South Korea's pure benzene exports increased significantly in recent years, reaching 3.38 million tons in 2024, mainly to China and the United States, accounting for over 90% of its total exports [9]. - China's pure benzene imports reached a new high in 2024, with South Korea being the largest source, accounting for half of the total imports [11]. 2.2 Pure Benzene Domestic Trade Pattern and Flow - Northeast and Northwest China produce a large amount of by - product pure benzene but have relatively low downstream consumption, resulting in a net outflow of about 2 million tons in 2024 [13]. - East China has a large supply gap of about 6.5 million tons in 2024, with about 3.5 million tons met by imports [13]. - Shandong and Fujian need to transfer more pure benzene from other regions due to the large - scale commissioning of downstream refining and chemical facilities [13]. - In general, pure benzene flows from the Northwest to East and Southwest China, from the Northeast and North China to East China, and some imported goods in East and South China flow to the inland [13]. 2.3 Pure Benzene Domestic Logistics - Domestic pure benzene is mainly transported by road and water, with a small amount by pipeline and railway, and the transportation policy is relatively stable with mature routes [15]. - Road transportation is mainly used for cross - regional circulation in Hebei, Henan, Shandong, Jiangsu, and Anhui, with relatively large cost fluctuations [15]. - Sea transportation is mainly used in Liaoning, Shandong, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Fujian, and Guangdong, with fixed routes and relatively stable costs [15].
苯乙烯风险管理日报-20250513
Nan Hua Qi Huo· 2025-05-13 14:41
source: 南华研究 苯乙烯套保策略表 戴一帆(投资咨询证号:Z0015428) 黄思婕(期货从业证号:F03130744) 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1290号 苯乙烯价格区间预测 | | 价格区间预测(月度) | 当前波动率(20日滚动) | 当前波动率历史百分位(3年) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 苯乙烯 | 7100-7700 | 35.25% | 94.8% | 苯乙烯风险管理日报 3、下午开盘后市场开始传恒力裂解装置突发故障,紧急停车导致其下游72万吨苯乙烯装置需要提前检 修,检修时长为一个月,该装置原计划是在6月下旬检修,若消息属实将加剧苯乙烯缺货程度。 【利空解读】 | 行为导 | 情景分析 | 现货敞 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 买卖方 | | 套保比例 | 建议入场 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 向 | | 口 | | | 向 | (%) | 区间 | | 库存管 | | | 为了防止存货跌价损失,可以根据企业的库存情况,做空苯乙烯期货来锁定 利润,弥补企业的生产成 ...
PTA:短期偏多
Ning Zheng Qi Huo· 2025-05-12 12:08
Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the PTA industry is short - term bullish [2] Core Viewpoints - The PXN spread repair has driven the recovery of the load rate of Asian PX plants. The current phased low point of PX plant load has emerged, and it is less likely to return to the previous low - load operation state this year. The short - term rebound is due to the concentrated maintenance of PX and PTA, which is a valuation repair. In the long term, attention should be paid to terminal orders and Sino - US trade negotiations, and whether the demand can achieve substantial repair remains to be verified. Short - term participation is recommended [2][15] Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Market Review - The PTA09 contract was recommended for low - position long positions. The weekly opening price of the 09 contract was 4390, the highest was 4590, the lowest was 4328, and the closing price was 4582, with a weekly increase of 148 or 3.34% [3] Chapter 2: Analysis of Price Influencing Factors 2.1 Maintenance Supports a Small Rebound in PXN - In terms of PX capacity, the commissioning of new domestic PX capacity in 2024 is gradually coming to an end. Only Yulongdao has a plan to put into operation a new 3 million - ton capacity in 2024, and there is no expectation of new project launch in 2025. From January to April 2025, the domestic PX output was 12.28 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.1%; from January to March 2025, the domestic PX imports were 2.248 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.8%. The current PXCFR is reported at $777/ton, and PX - N is $223/ton; the PTA in East China is reported at 4720 yuan/ton, and the PTA cash - flow cost is 4354 yuan/ton. The load of the Chinese PX industry increased by 5.6% to 78.6%, and some plants increased their loads due to improved production efficiency. Overseas, South Korea's Daesan Hanwha Total slightly reduced its load in May, and Japan's Idemitsu's 210,000 - ton line of an 880,000 - ton plant unexpectedly shut down for about a month at the end of April [4][6] 2.2 Maintenance Promotes PTA De - stocking - From January to April 2025, the domestic PTA output was 23.69 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.5%. In April, the average monthly load of PTA was around 77.5%, a slight decrease of 0.1% compared with January. The PTA load increased to 79.3%, which is at a neutral level in the same period over the years. In May, due to the still - poor PTA profitability, the maintenance efforts of suppliers were still large. It is estimated that the average monthly load of PTA in May is expected to decline month - on - month. Affected by the planned maintenance of some plants, the PTA industry load decreased by 7.4% to 70.3%, reaching a low level in the same period over the years. The domestic PTA weekly output this cycle was 1.2925 million tons, a decrease of 43,800 tons from last week. The current PTA social inventory is about 4.1226 million tons, a decrease of 183,700 tons month - on - month. Whether the terminal demand can achieve a trend - based repair remains to be verified by post - holiday orders, and there is medium - term pressure on the demand side [9][10] 2.3 Polyester Load May Decline - From January to March 2025, the domestic polyester output was 25.32 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.8%. After the holiday, the polyester load continued to rise to 94.2% (+0.8%). Next week, the weekly output of the Chinese polyester industry is expected to be over 1.57 million tons, a slight increase from this period. As of May 9, the weekly average operating rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms was 60.1%, unchanged week - on - week. As of May 9, the grey fabric inventory of East China weaving enterprises was 34.0 days, unchanged week - on - week. Terminal orders are differentiated, the polyester load has increased beyond expectations and may remain high in May. The filament trading volume has declined, and the weighted inventory has started to accumulate. The supply contraction effect caused by the concentrated maintenance of plants continues, and there is a support basis for the short - term polyester industry chain prices, but whether the demand can achieve substantial repair remains to be verified [12][13] Chapter 3: Market Outlook and Investment Strategy - The PXN spread repair has driven the recovery of the load rate of Asian PX plants. The current phased low point of PX plant load has emerged, and it is less likely to return to the previous low - load operation state this year. The short - term rebound is due to the concentrated maintenance of PX and PTA, which is a valuation repair. In the long term, attention should be paid to terminal orders and Sino - US trade negotiations, and whether the demand can achieve substantial repair remains to be verified. Short - term participation is recommended [15]
EB:供需预期仍弱,关注原料共振机会
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-05-12 05:17
Group 1: Report Summary - Report Title: Styrene Weekly Report - EB: Weak Supply-Demand Expectations, Focus on Raw Material Resonance Opportunities [1] - Core View: Crude oil is expected to be weak in the medium term under Trump's policy, suppressing the valuation of chemical products. Pure benzene's supply-demand situation shows short-term marginal improvement but still faces pressure, dragging down the styrene price. Styrene's downstream demand is weak, and the supply-demand balance is under pressure. In the medium term, the terminal pressure will gradually emerge due to tariff effects, and high-cost styrene may face resistance. [5] - Strategy Suggestion: Maintain a short position on styrene, with the upper resistance level for the near-month contract at 7300. Sell the EB2506-C-8000 option. [6] Group 2: Pure Benzene 2025 Production Plan - Multiple companies in various provinces have plans to expand pure benzene, styrene, and their downstream production capacities in 2025, including Shandong Yulong Petrochemical, ExxonMobil in Guangdong, etc. [8] March - May 2025 Device Dynamics - Many pure benzene production devices are scheduled for maintenance from March to May 2025, resulting in a net reduction in supply and demand during this period, with a slight inventory drawdown. [10][11] Supply, Inventory, and Price - From January to April this year, the cumulative pure benzene production was 718.5 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 6.11%. As of May 9, the capacity utilization rate was 73.25%, and the weekly production was 401,600 tons. The port inventory remained at 120,000 tons without significant change. [45] - South Korea's exports of pure benzene to China have remained at a high level, and the inventory drawdown has been slow due to high production and imports. [28][34] Downstream Situation - The weighted average operating rate of pure benzene downstream industries has rebounded recently with the restart of styrene devices. However, the overall profit is weak, with adipic acid and caprolactam still experiencing significant losses, and styrene's profit has improved but remains below the break-even point. [46][57] Group 3: Styrene Futures and Spot Market - The spot price and basis of styrene show certain fluctuations, and the monthly spread and registered warehouse receipts also have corresponding changes. [63] Supply and Profit - The monthly and weekly production of styrene and the operating rate show upward trends in general. The non-integrated and integrated profits of styrene and the styrene-pure benzene spread also fluctuate. [68][71][72] Import and Export - With the shutdown of multiple styrene devices in Asia, China has gradually shifted from a net importer to a net exporter of styrene in the past five years, and exports have continued from April to May. [80] Inventory - The port inventory of styrene has continued to decline, with relatively limited year-on-year pressure, while the factory inventory is under pressure. [81] Downstream Situation - The high capacity growth rate of 3S (PS, EPS, ABS) has intensified competition, and the high production has supported the demand for styrene. However, the industry is facing profit compression, and the current downstream is characterized by low profit and high inventory, indicating limited terminal demand. [86][90] - The prices of 3S products have weakened, but the estimated profit has strengthened due to the significant fluctuations in styrene prices. [91] - The high production of 3S has led to a significant increase in inventory, indicating resistance in demand transmission, and the support for styrene demand may weaken marginally. [96][99] Terminal Market - After the implementation of tariffs, exports are likely to be restricted, and domestic demand depends on subsidy policies. The domestic and export sales of home appliances such as air conditioners, refrigerators, and washing machines show certain trends. [100]