1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In December, the cost - side support for PX and PTA weakened slightly, but their prices rose significantly due to the expectation of tight supply and demand for PX in the first half of next year, with improved profitability. However, the spot basis did not increase significantly. PF and PR prices followed the raw materials up, but the increase was less than that of the raw materials. The processing profit of PF was compressed due to weak textile and clothing demand, and the downstream of PR was weak, with only rigid - demand replenishment [1]. - In the short term, PX has a risk of retracement, but the medium - term expectation is still good. The report suggests short - term retracement for PX/PTA/PF/PR and mid - term buying on dips for hedging. For PTA and PX, the 2605 - 2609 month - spread can be bought after retracement [1][8]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Price and Spread - In December, Brent crude oil price broke through the lower edge of the $60 - 65/barrel range, reaching around $58/barrel. The medium - term fundamental pressure on crude oil still suppressed oil prices. PX and PTA prices rose significantly, with PXN reaching around $380/ton and PTA processing fee recovering to below 300 yuan/ton, but the spot basis did not increase significantly. PF and PR prices followed raw materials up, but the increase was less than that of raw materials. PF processing profit was compressed, and PR basis weakened with a narrowing of the spot processing fee [1][13]. - Regarding the basis strategy, the PTA basis is expected to fluctuate in January, the PX basis is expected to oscillate, the PF basis is expected to adjust passively with raw materials, and the PR basis is expected to move within a range [12]. 3.2 PX and PTA Supply - PX supply: In 2026, the new PX production capacity that can actually be realized is mainly 2 million tons from Liaoning Huajin Aramco, and the total new production capacity including the expansion of Fujia Dahua is expected to be 2.6 million tons, with a capacity growth rate of 6%. In December, foreign PX plants operated at a high load, and production continued to increase. There are no maintenance plans in January, and PX production is expected to remain high. Overseas PX operation rate has an upward expectation [2][43]. - PTA supply: 8.7 million tons of new PTA production capacity have been put into operation this year, and there are no new production capacity plans in 2026. In December, due to low profitability, the maintenance volume of PTA plants remained high. In January, some plants will restart, and PTA load and production are expected to increase slightly compared with December [3][43]. 3.3 Inventory - PX inventory: The PX balance sheet is expected to accumulate about 80,000 tons in December. The current PX social inventory is at a seasonally low level, and the inventories in Japan and South Korea are moderately low. In January, the PTA load increase is limited, and the Chinese PX balance sheet is expected to remain in a loose balance, with an expected inventory accumulation of about 90,000 tons [2][55][58]. - PTA inventory: The Chinese PTA social inventory decreased in December, with an estimated de - stocking of about 200,000 tons. In January, although the maintenance loss is still large, the polyester load on the demand side is expected to decline, and PTA is expected to accumulate a small amount of inventory (about 70,000 tons). The near - end contradiction is not significant, but the inventory accumulation will increase in February [3][58]. 3.4 Demand - In December, domestic trade orders weakened, the weaving load declined rapidly, and the grey fabric inventory began to accumulate. Foreign trade orders started to place seasonal orders from late December, but the overall level was lower than that of the same period last year. In December, due to the rapid rise of raw materials, weaving enterprises made concentrated replenishment, and filament inventory decreased to a low level. Polyester plants operated at a relatively high load in December, but moderately reduced production at the end of the month [67]. - In January, the downstream shows a weakening trend. The recent rise in raw material prices has not promoted the sales of downstream drawn yarns and grey fabrics. The price is difficult to pass on, and the downstream operation rate may decline rapidly. If downstream enterprises stop production in advance, polyester enterprises may be forced to reduce production in advance or increase the maintenance intensity during the Spring Festival [67]. 3.5 PF Supply, Demand and Inventory - In December, the inventory of staple fiber plants remained stable at a low level, and they maintained a high - load operation. With the increase in raw materials, the profit of downstream polyester yarns decreased significantly. In January, the load may decline rapidly due to weak downstream demand, and the increase is less than that of futures. As demand weakens in January, the load is expected to decline from a high level, and the risk of high - priced raw materials increases. The market mainly purchases on demand with a wait - and - see attitude [4][91][93]. 3.6 PR Supply, Demand and Inventory - Supply: In mid - to late December, two 300,000 - ton plants of Zhuhai Huaren restarted one after another, and the new plant of Fuhai was put into production in January, resulting in a slight increase in domestic supply. - Demand: In the first half of December, the terminal made concentrated replenishment at low prices, and the factory inventory decreased. In the second half, after the rapid rise of raw materials, the terminal was cautious about chasing the rise, and the procurement was relatively rigid. In January, there are both restart and maintenance plans, the demand is weak, the supply - demand is expected to remain weak, and the processing fee space is limited [5][111].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - As of the close on December 29, domestic futures main contracts showed mixed performance. Some commodities like palladium and platinum hit the daily limit down, while others like iron ore saw significant increases. Different commodities are expected to have various trends based on their supply - demand fundamentals and external factors [6][7]. 3. Summary by Commodity Metals - **Copper**: The price of Shanghai copper (SHFE copper) has been rising recently. Market sentiment was boosted by the zero - pricing of the 2026 long - term mining processing fee and Trump's remarks on the Fed chair. However, copper product profits are squeezed, and capacity utilization is declining. Copper foil remains highly prosperous. The inventory of cathode copper on the SHFE has been increasing, indicating weak downstream demand. The copper price on the five - disk rose significantly today, breaking through the 100,000 - integer mark [9][10]. - **Palladium and Platinum**: Both hit the daily limit down, with a decline of 10% [6]. - **Carbonate Lithium**: It opened high but closed nearly 8% lower. Production is expected to increase, and downstream demand is showing signs of weakening. Although the downstream energy - storage battery still maintains growth, the expected production cut of lithium iron phosphate in the first quarter will reduce the support for carbonate lithium prices. Inventory has been decreasing recently [11]. - **Aluminum Oxide**: The 2605 contract saw an inflow of 624 million yuan in funds [7]. - **Iron Ore**: It rose by over 2%, and the 2605 contract had a 1.03 - billion - yuan inflow of funds. It was one of the commodities with significant price increases and strong capital inflows [6][7]. - **Hot Rolled Coil**: The 2605 contract had a 211 - million - yuan inflow of funds [7]. - **Gold and Silver**: The 2602 contracts of Shanghai gold and Shanghai silver had large - scale capital outflows, with 5.267 billion yuan and 5.166 billion yuan respectively [7]. Energy - **Crude Oil**: OPEC + 's eight additional voluntarily - reducing oil - producing countries reiterated the suspension of production increases in the first quarter of next year. However, the market is still in a state of supply surplus, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly. Attention should be paid to the situation in Venezuela and the progress of the Russia - Ukraine peace talks [12][13]. - **Asphalt**: The supply is expected to decrease as some refineries have plans to switch production or stop production. The demand in the north is gradually weakening, but winter - storage demand is being released. The demand in the south is average. It is expected that the asphalt futures price will fluctuate, and attention should be paid to the situation in Venezuela [14]. Chemicals - **PP (Polypropylene)**: The downstream operating rate is at a relatively low level, and the supply is increasing with new capacity and fewer maintenance devices. The downstream is approaching the end of the peak season, and orders are decreasing. It is expected that the upward space is limited, and the L - PP spread is expected to narrow [16]. - **Plastic**: New production capacity has been put into operation recently. The agricultural film season is ending, and orders are decreasing. The overall supply - demand pattern remains unchanged, and it is expected that the upward space is limited, and the L - PP spread is expected to narrow [17][18]. - **PVC**: The upstream calcium carbide price is stable. The supply - side operating rate is decreasing, and downstream demand is weak. The export situation is not optimistic, and inventory pressure is high. It is expected to fluctuate [19]. Other Commodities - **Coking Coal**: The price opened high but closed lower. The supply from domestic mines may decrease, but imported coal is increasing. Downstream demand is weak, and inventory is rising. After the third - round price cut of coke was implemented, the fourth - round price cut has started. It is expected to be weak, and attention should be paid to the implementation of price cuts [20][21]. - **Urea**: It opened low and closed flat. The market atmosphere is average, and enterprises are reducing prices to attract orders. The daily production is around 200,000 tons. The compound - fertilizer factory's operating rate is declining, and inventory is decreasing. It is expected to fluctuate slightly in the short term, be weak in the short - term, and strong in the medium - to - long - term [22]. Financial Futures - **Stock Index Futures**: The main contracts of CSI 300 (IF), SSE 50 (IH), CSI 500 (IC), and CSI 1000 (IM) all declined, with declines of 0.56%, 0.48%, 0.67%, and 0.51% respectively [7]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The main contracts of 2 - year (TS), 5 - year (TF), 10 - year (T), and 30 - year (TL) treasury bond futures all declined, with declines of 0.07%, 0.18%, 0.28%, and 0.91% respectively [7].

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: Nanhua Futures' Weekly Report on the Pure Benzene and Styrene Industry Chain - Rebound from Low Levels [1] - Date: December 28, 2025 [2] Group 2: Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations Core Contradictions - **Pure Benzene**: Supply had minor fluctuations this week; demand from major downstream industries such as styrene, phenol, aniline, and adipic acid increased, but long - term demand support is weak. East China port inventory reached a historical high, facing the risk of overstocking. Next year's refinery maintenance plan shows less monthly maintenance loss in the first half of the year compared to the previous two years, and there will be significant de - stocking pressure after the Spring Festival. The price of pure benzene in the US Gulf is strong, and the US - South Korea window is open, but the surplus pattern in Asia remains unchanged [2]. - **Styrene**: The 450,000 - ton styrene plant of Tianjin Bohua unexpectedly shut down this week, reducing short - term supply. There were many export negotiations this week, and both supply and demand had positive news, boosting market sentiment. The rebound in the futures market was also driven by the shift in capital allocation. However, it is still the off - season for demand, and the basis of the main contract weakened after the rapid rise, so it is not recommended to chase high prices [3]. Trading - Type Strategy Recommendations - **Trend Judgment**: Range - bound oscillation - **Price Range**: BZ2603 oscillates between 5,200 - 5,800 yuan/ton, and EB2602 oscillates between 6,300 - 6,900 yuan/ton - **Strategy Suggestion**: Range - bound operation, short on rallies [15] Industrial Customer Operation Suggestions - **Inventory Management**: For companies with high finished - product inventory, they can short styrene futures (EB2602) with a hedging ratio of 25% at 6,750 - 6,850 yuan/ton to lock in profits. They can also sell call options (EB2602C6900) with a ratio of 50% at 110 - 130 yuan to reduce capital costs [16]. - **Procurement Management**: For companies with low regular inventory, they can buy styrene futures (EB2602) with a ratio of 50% at 6,400 - 6,500 yuan/ton to lock in procurement costs. They can also sell put options (EB2602P6600) with a ratio of 75% at 100 - 120 yuan to reduce procurement costs [16]. Group 3: Weekly Important Information and Next - Week Concerns This Week's Important Information - **Positive Information**: The price of pure benzene in the US Gulf is strong, and the US - South Korea window is open with reported export transactions. There were frequent styrene export news with deals to South Korea and Europe. The 450,000 - ton/year styrene plant of Tianjin Bohua unexpectedly shut down on December 24 [22]. - **Negative Information**: As of December 22, 2025, the commercial inventory of pure benzene in Jiangsu ports reached 273,000 tons, a 5% increase from the previous period, at a historical high [21]. Next - Week Important Events - On December 29, pay attention to the EIA crude oil inventory (10,000 barrels) in the US for the week ending December 19, with a previous value of - 1.274 million barrels and a forecast of - 2.432 million barrels. - On December 31, pay attention to the initial jobless claims (10,000 people) in the US for the week ending December 27, with a previous value of 2.14 million people and a forecast of 2.2 million people [23] Group 4: Futures Market Interpretation Price, Volume, and Capital Analysis - **Unilateral Trend and Capital Movement**: The futures market rebounded from a low level this week. The top 5 long and short positions in the weekly long - short list significantly reduced their positions, and the net short position of the top 5 profitable seats slightly increased. Although the price rebounded, the inventory was at a high level, with both long and short factors intertwined [24]. Basis and Calendar Spread Structure - The monthly C - structure of the styrene futures market flattened slightly. Due to export negotiations and the unexpected shutdown of the plant, the near - term price strengthened, and the calendar spread and basis slightly narrowed [28]. Futures Spread Tracking - The spread between the main contracts of pure benzene and styrene on the futures market strengthened significantly this week. With the high inventory of pure benzene at ports and frequent styrene export news and plant shutdowns, the spread widened rapidly [32] Group 5: Valuation and Profit Analysis Upstream and Downstream Profit Tracking in the Industrial Chain - **Naphtha Cracking and Reforming**: Analyzed the seasonal trends of naphtha prices, cracking profits, and reforming profits in the international market [37][39]. - **Aromatic Hydrocarbon Blending Economics**: Studied the blending economics of toluene and xylene in different regions such as Asia, the US, and Europe [42][45][47]. - **Pure Benzene Profit**: Tracked the daily production margin of pure benzene [50]. - **Pure Benzene Downstream Profit**: Analyzed the comprehensive profit and demand of pure benzene downstream industries [53]. - **Styrene Profit**: Tracked the non - integrated, integrated, and POSM comprehensive profits of styrene [55]. - **Styrene Downstream Profit**: Analyzed the 3S comprehensive profit and comprehensive operating rate of styrene downstream industries [57]. Import and Export Profit Tracking - **Pure Benzene Import Profit**: Analyzed the seasonal trend of pure benzene import profit and monthly import volume [59]. - **Styrene Import Profit**: Analyzed the seasonal trend of styrene import profit and monthly import volume [61] Group 6: Supply, Demand, and Inventory Projections Supply - Side and Projections - **Pure Benzene Supply**: This week, the output of petroleum benzene was 436,300 tons, a decrease of 300 tons from last week, with a capacity utilization rate of 74.89%, a 0.05% decrease. The output of hydrogenated benzene was 77,400 tons, an increase of 3,900 tons, with an operating rate of 58.93%, a 2.94% increase. Overall supply had minor fluctuations. Port inventory reached a historical high [62][65]. - **Styrene Supply**: This week, styrene output was 354,600 tons, an increase of 7,800 tons from the previous period, a 2.25% increase. The factory capacity utilization rate was 70.7%, a 1.57% increase. Port inventory had minor fluctuations [67][70]. Demand - Side and Projections - **Pure Benzene Demand**: The operating rates of major pure benzene downstream industries such as styrene, phenol, aniline, and adipic acid increased, and the total demand for pure benzene from the five major downstream industries significantly increased [72]. - **Styrene Demand**: Among the downstream 3S industries, the capacity utilization rates of EPS, PS, and ABS increased, and the comprehensive demand of 3S increased compared to last week. However, the overall terminal demand is still expected to be weak as the production schedule of household air conditioners in January was further revised down [110]. Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Projections - Analyzed the production, import, and demand data of pure benzene and styrene from 2024 - 2026, and projected the supply - demand balance and inventory changes. Also listed the new capacity investment plans of pure benzene and styrene industries in 2025 [123][124]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for unilateral investment is neutral [3] Core Viewpoints of the Report - After a significant drop on Tuesday and a sharp rise on Wednesday, there was no obvious change in the EG fundamentals. The increase was mainly due to defensive short - covering in response to unplanned maintenance at low market prices, along with positive sentiment in the commodity and chemical sectors [1] - The production margins of ethylene - based and coal - based syngas - based EG both decreased [1] - The inventory data from different sources showed different trends. The overall arrival volume is moderately high, and the main port is expected to see a slight inventory build - up [2] - In terms of the overall fundamental supply - demand logic, the supply pressure is high in the next 1 - 2 months, and the demand from weaving is weakening. Attention should be paid to the implementation of filament production cuts [2] - For investment strategies, the unilateral rating is neutral, and there are no suggestions for inter - period or inter - commodity strategies [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price and Basis - The closing price of the EG main contract was 3818 yuan/ton (a change of +195 yuan/ton or +5.38% from the previous trading day), and the spot price in the East China market was 3598 yuan/ton (a change of +76 yuan/ton or +2.16% from the previous trading day). The spot basis in East China was - 13 yuan/ton (a decrease of 8 yuan/ton compared to the previous day) [1] Production Profit and Operating Rate - The production margin of ethylene - based EG was - 110 US dollars/ton (a decrease of 12 US dollars/ton compared to the previous day), and that of coal - based syngas - based EG was - 1046 yuan/ton (a decrease of 72 yuan/ton compared to the previous day) [1] - The overall domestic ethylene glycol operating rate has risen above 70% [2] International Price Difference - No specific data or analysis on the international price difference was provided in the text, but a figure (Figure 9) about the international price difference (US FOB - China CFR) was mentioned [20] Downstream Production, Sales, and Operating Rate - Weaving orders are weakening marginally, and the operating rate is declining rapidly, while the polyester operating rate remains firm. Attention should be paid to the implementation of filament production cuts due to weakening profitability [2] Inventory Data - According to CCF's data on Mondays, the MEG inventory at major ports in East China was 84.4 tons (a week - on - week increase of 2.5 tons); according to Longzhong's data on Thursdays, it was 61.7 tons (a week - on - week decrease of 13.8 tons) [2] - The planned arrival volume at major ports in East China last week was 11.1 tons and 3 tons at secondary ports; this week, the planned arrival volume at major ports is 11.8 tons and 2.7 tons at secondary ports. The overall volume is moderately high, and the main port is expected to see a slight inventory build - up [2] - The expected inventory build - up in the next 1 - 2 months is around 50 tons [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The PTA/PX market remains strong as the US is in the process of aromatics stockpiling. From December 1st to 20th, South Korea exported 0.43 tons of MX, 4.5 tons of PX, and 1.48 tons of toluene to the US [1]. - Crude oil has rebounded due to escalating geopolitical conflicts, with Venezuela becoming a short - term market focus. However, there is still significant downward pressure on oil prices in Q1 next year. Near - term market liquidity may be affected by overseas holidays and commodity index fund rebalancing at the beginning of the year [2]. - PX: The PXN was $335/ton (a $30.01/ton increase from the previous period). PX units are operating stably. With good expectations for the first half of next year, PXN has risen significantly. Even if there are fluctuations in the reformer start - up of some factories, PX production can still be effectively maintained. The monthly spread has strengthened recently, and there are many PX maintenance plans in Q2 next year, with positive long - term expectations. The strong polyester start - up rate supports PXN. In the gasoline blending aspect, gasoline cracking has shown no obvious improvement, but the US has started aromatics stockpiling [2]. - TA: The spot basis of the TA main contract is - 14 yuan/ton (a 4 - yuan/ton decrease from the previous period), the PTA spot processing fee is 144 yuan/ton (a 3 - yuan/ton decrease from the previous period), and the processing fee on the main contract's futures price is 306 yuan/ton (a 27 - yuan/ton increase from the previous period). Downstream raw material inventories have reached a low level, and the replenishment demand of polyester factories has increased significantly, driving the spot basis to strengthen. There are many near - term maintenance plans, and the cancellation of India's BIS has boosted PTA export demand. With the support of polyester load, the December balance sheet shows inventory reduction, and there is no pressure for inventory accumulation in January, which is better than previously expected. In the long run, as the period of concentrated capacity release ends, PTA processing fees are expected to gradually improve [3]. - Demand: The polyester start - up rate is 91.1% (a 0.1% decrease from the previous period). The weaving load has been declining rapidly recently. Since the end of November, domestic trade orders have weakened rapidly, and grey fabric inventories have started to accumulate rapidly. Although samples for spring - summer and foreign trade orders for next year have been made, large - scale orders have not been placed yet. It is expected that the start - up rate will decline more rapidly from late December. The polyester load remains strong for now, with increasing pressure on filament profits but acceptable inventory pressure. After the inventory of bottle - chip factories decreased, their load has rebounded. In the short term, the polyester load is expected to remain stable at around 91%, and a decline is expected around January [3]. - PF: The spot production profit is 142 yuan/ton (a 32 - yuan/ton decrease from the previous period). The fundamentals of direct - spun polyester staple fiber have not changed much, with low inventory. As raw material prices rise rapidly, the processing margin is under pressure. In terms of demand, the sales of pure polyester yarn and polyester - cotton yarn are average, with a slight decline in load and a slight increase in inventory [4]. - PR: The spot processing fee for polyester bottle - chips is 423 yuan/ton (a 9 - yuan/ton decrease from the previous period). Polyester bottle - chip factories have raised prices following raw materials, and the overall processing margin has been compressed to below 500 yuan. Fundamentally, the load of bottle - chip factories has remained unchanged, but as their inventory has declined, the load has rebounded. Additionally, a new 300,000 - ton polyester bottle - chip plant in Shandong Fuhai has started production. In the future, bottle - chip supply may increase, and the short - term processing margin for polyester bottle - chips is expected to be limited, with market prices following raw material fluctuations [4]. - Strategy: For PX/PTA/PF/PR, a cautious and bullish stance is recommended. In the short term, prices have risen rapidly due to capital concentration, and the risk of price retracement due to capital reduction should be watched. For PX, there are many maintenance plans in Q2 next year, with positive long - term expectations, and the strong polyester start - up rate supports PXN. For TA, there are many near - term maintenance plans, with inventory reduction in December and no inventory accumulation pressure in January, and PTA processing fees are expected to improve in the long run. For PF, the load is high, and factory inventory is low. At low - price stages, downstream buyers will make appropriate purchases, but due to few orders from downstream yarn mills, there is no strong willingness for large - scale inventory building or chasing high prices, and the processing fee is expected to fluctuate. For PR, although the inventory of bottle - chip factories has decreased due to increased recent transactions, supply is expected to increase, and the processing margin for polyester bottle - chips is expected to be limited, with market prices following raw material fluctuations [5]. - Cross - variety: No strategy provided - Cross - period: A long position in the PTA and PX 5 - 9 spread is recommended [6] Summary by Directory Price and Basis - Figures include TA main contract, basis, and cross - period spread trends; PX main contract trends, basis, and cross - period spread; PTA East China spot basis; and short - fiber 1.56D*38mm semi - bright natural white basis [10][11][13] Upstream Profits and Spreads - Figures cover PX processing fee PXN, PTA spot processing fee, South Korean xylene isomerization profit, and South Korean STDP selective disproportionation profit [19][23] International Spreads and Import - Export Profits - Figures include toluene US - Asia spread, toluene South Korean FOB - Japanese naphtha CFR, and PTA export profit [27][28] Upstream PX and PTA Start - up - Figures show the operating rates of PTA in China, South Korea, and Taiwan, as well as the operating rates of PX in China and Asia [29][32][36] Social Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - Figures include PTA weekly social inventory, PX monthly social inventory, PTA total warehouse receipts + forecast volume, PTA warehouse receipt inventory, PX warehouse receipt inventory, and PF warehouse receipt inventory [38][40][41] Downstream Polyester Load - Figures cover filament sales volume, short - fiber sales volume, polyester load, direct - spun filament load, polyester staple fiber load, polyester bottle - chip load, filament factory inventory days, Jiangsu and Zhejiang loom start - up rate, Jiangsu and Zhejiang texturing machine start - up rate, and Jiangsu and Zhejiang dyeing start - up rate [49][51][56] PF Detailed Data - Figures include polyester staple fiber load, polyester staple fiber factory equity inventory days, 1.4D physical inventory, 1.4D equity inventory, recycled cotton - type staple fiber load, difference between original and recycled fibers, pure polyester yarn start - up rate, pure polyester yarn production profit, polyester - cotton yarn start - up rate, polyester - cotton yarn processing fee, pure polyester yarn factory inventory available days, and polyester - cotton yarn factory inventory available days [68][72][77] PR Fundamental Detailed Data - Figures include polyester bottle - chip load, bottle - chip factory bottle - chip inventory days, bottle - chip spot processing fee, bottle - chip export processing fee, bottle - chip export profit, difference between East China water bottle - chips and recycled 3A - grade white bottle - chips, bottle - chip next - month spread, and bottle - chip next - next - month spread [90][92][97]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Overall, the report presents a cautious and bearish outlook on the energy and chemical industries, with some potential for short - term rebounds [1][3][6] 2. Report's Core View - The report analyzes various energy and chemical products, including crude oil, LPG, L, PP, PVC, PTA, MEG, methanol, urea, LNG, asphalt, glass, and soda ash. It provides core views on each product, such as short - term rebounds or long - term bearish trends, based on factors like supply - demand dynamics, geopolitical events, and cost changes [1][3][6] 3. Summary by Product Crude Oil - Core View: Short - term rebound due to rising South American geopolitical uncertainty, but long - term bearish due to oversupply in the off - season [1][9] - Market Performance: WTI, Brent, and SC rebounded overnight, with WTI rising 2.64%, Brent rising 2.55%, and SC rising 1.22% [7][8] - Fundamental Analysis: South American geopolitical uncertainty increased as the US seized Venezuelan oil tankers. Demand is expected to increase in 2025 and 2026, but US inventories showed mixed changes in the week ending December 12 [9][10] - Strategy: Hold short positions. Focus on the range of [435 - 445] for SC [11] LPG - Core View: Short - term rebound supported by the cost side, but long - term bearish [1][12] - Market Performance: On December 22, the PG main contract closed at 4100 yuan/ton, down 0.12% [14] - Fundamental Analysis: Supply increased as refinery operations rose, and downstream chemical demand was resilient. Inventories decreased both at ports and in factories [15] - Strategy: Hold short positions. Focus on the range of [4050 - 4150] for PG [16] L - Core View: The market returned to a weak state after the commissioning of a new device [17] - Market Performance: L05 closed at 6320 yuan/ton, down 2.4% [18] - Fundamental Analysis: The commissioning of a 500,000 - ton new device by BASF increased supply pressure. The off - season for agricultural films led to decreased demand, and inventory faced de - stocking pressure [20] - Strategy: Partially close short positions in the short term. Wait for a rebound to go short in the long term. Hold short positions on the LP05 spread. Focus on the range of [6250 - 6400] for L [20] PP - Core View: High inventory constrained the rebound space, and the market oscillated at a low level [21] - Market Performance: PP05 closed at 6213 yuan/ton, down 1.1% [22] - Fundamental Analysis: Total commercial inventory remained at a high level. Demand entered the off - season in December, and the de - stocking pressure was high [24] - Strategy: Reduce short positions. Wait for a rebound to go short in the long term. Short the MTO05 spread. Focus on the range of [6150 - 6300] for PP [24] PVC - Core View: The market rebounded from the bottom supported by low valuation [25] - Market Performance: V05 closed at 4652 yuan/ton, down 1.2% [26] - Fundamental Analysis: Although the upper - middle stream inventory was high and supply reduction was insufficient, many domestic devices had cash - flow losses, and some marginal devices started to reduce loads [28] - Strategy: Go long in the short term. Wait for continuous inventory de - stocking to go long on dips in the long term. Industrial customers should hedge at high prices. Focus on the range of [4600 - 4800] for V [28] PTA - Core View: The supply - demand pattern was good, and consider buying on dips [29] - Market Performance: TA05 closed at 4674 yuan/ton, down 48 [29] - Fundamental Analysis: Supply decreased as many domestic devices were under planned maintenance, and overseas devices were partially increased in load. Downstream demand was good but expected to weaken. There was a risk of inventory accumulation in January [30] - Strategy: Consider buying TA05 on dips. Focus on the range of [4980 - 5100] for TA [31] MEG - Core View: Supply - demand weakened, and there was an expectation of inventory accumulation. Consider shorting on rebounds [32] - Market Performance: EG05 closed at 3619 yuan/ton, down 56 [32] - Fundamental Analysis: Domestic device loads increased, and overseas devices were expected to reduce loads. Downstream demand was good but expected to weaken, and port inventories were rising [33] - Strategy: Consider shorting EG05 on rebounds. Focus on the range of [3680 - 3770] for EG05 [34] Methanol - Core View: Port inventory decreased, but demand was under pressure. Be cautious about chasing long positions [35] - Market Performance: Not specifically mentioned in a prominent way [37] - Fundamental Analysis: Spot prices in Taicang weakened slightly, and the negative basis strengthened. Supply pressure remained as the arrival volume in December was estimated to be about 1.3 million tons, and demand weakened slightly [37] - Strategy: Do not chase long positions. Consider buying methanol 05 on dips [39] Urea - Core View: Supply - side pressure was expected to increase, and the market oscillated weakly [40] - Market Performance: URO5 closed at 1697 yuan/ton [40] - Fundamental Analysis: Gas - based urea device operations decreased significantly, but overall load was still high. Demand was expected to weaken, and inventory was at a relatively high level [41][42] - Strategy: The market is expected to oscillate weakly. Consider buying UR05 on dips. Focus on the range of [1670 - 1690] for UR05 [43] LNG - Core View: Supply was sufficient, and gas prices were under downward pressure [44] - Market Performance: On December 19, the NG main contract closed at 3.984 dollars/million British thermal units, up 1.94% [46] - Fundamental Analysis: Demand support decreased due to mild weather in the US, and supply was relatively abundant [47] - Strategy: Although there is demand support in the consumption season, gas prices are under downward pressure due to sufficient supply. Focus on the range of [3.895 - 4.260] for NG [47] Asphalt - Core View: South American geopolitical uncertainty vs. weak supply - demand, the market oscillated within a range [48] - Market Performance: The main contract (2602) closed at 2909 yuan/ton, down 1.46% [48] - Fundamental Analysis: Supply was relatively sufficient, and demand entered the off - season. The cracking spread and BU - FU spread were returning to normal but still had room for compression [50] - Strategy: Partially close short positions due to South American geopolitical uncertainty. Focus on the range of [2950 - 3050] for BU [51] Glass - Core View: Factory inventory ended a three - week decline, and the market oscillated at a low level [52] - Market Performance: FG05 closed at 1041 yuan/ton, down 2.0% [52] - Fundamental Analysis: High inventory constrained the rebound space. The melting volume remained stable, and demand was weak. Process profits turned negative [54] - Strategy: Partially close short positions in the short term. Wait for a rebound to go short in the long term. Focus on the range of [1000 - 1050] for FG [54] Soda Ash - Core View: Warehouse receipts increased, and the market oscillated weakly [55] - Market Performance: SA05 closed at 1176 yuan/ton, down 1.4% [56] - Fundamental Analysis: Warehouse receipts continued to increase, and although short - term supply pressure was relieved by maintenance, long - term supply was expected to be loose due to the planned commissioning of a new device. Demand support was insufficient [58]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral [3] Core View - EG load has risen above 70%. The closing price of the EG main contract was 3767 yuan/ton (up 9 yuan/ton, +0.24% from the previous trading day), the spot price of EG in the East China market was 3654 yuan/ton (down 14 yuan/ton, -0.38% from the previous trading day), and the spot basis of EG in East China was -22 yuan/ton (up 3 yuan/ton month-on-month) [1]. - The production profit of ethylene-based EG was -91 US dollars/ton (up 0 US dollars/ton month-on-month), and the production profit of coal-based syngas EG was -991 yuan/ton (up 59 yuan/ton month-on-month) [1]. - According to CCF data, the inventory of the main ports in East China was 84.4 tons (up 2.5 tons month-on-month); according to Longzhong data, it was 61.7 tons (down 13.8 tons month-on-month). The planned arrivals at the main ports in East China this week are 11.8 tons, and the arrivals at the secondary ports are 3 tons, with an overall slightly high level, and the main ports are expected to have a slight inventory build-up [1]. - On the supply side, as maintenance is implemented, the domestic ethylene glycol load has decreased from a high level, and the short-term supply pressure has been relieved, but high supply will resume in January. On the overseas supply side, the arrival of foreign ethylene glycol ships has returned to normal this week, and the rising trend of port inventory can be moderately alleviated. On the demand side, the polyester load remains strong with low inventory, but orders are marginally weakening [2]. - The pressure of new production is large. As port inventory rises, the liquidity of goods in the market increases. The pressure of inventory build-up will be alleviated if short-term maintenance is implemented, but the pressure of inventory build-up from January to February is still large, and further production cuts are needed for balance [3]. Summary According to the Catalog Price and Basis - The closing price of the EG main contract was 3767 yuan/ton (up 9 yuan/ton, +0.24% from the previous trading day), the spot price of EG in the East China market was 3654 yuan/ton (down 14 yuan/ton, -0.38% from the previous trading day), and the spot basis of EG in East China was -22 yuan/ton (up 3 yuan/ton month-on-month) [1]. Production Profit and Operating Rate - The production profit of ethylene-based EG was -91 US dollars/ton (up 0 US dollars/ton month-on-month), and the production profit of coal-based syngas EG was -991 yuan/ton (up 59 yuan/ton month-on-month) [1]. - As maintenance is implemented, the domestic ethylene glycol load has decreased from a high level, and the short-term supply pressure has been relieved, but high supply will resume in January [2]. International Spread - No specific content provided. Downstream Sales and Production and Operating Rate - Inventory at a low level, the polyester load remains strong, but orders are marginally weakening [2]. Inventory Data - According to CCF data, the inventory of the main ports in East China was 84.4 tons (up 2.5 tons month-on-month); according to Longzhong data, it was 61.7 tons (down 13.8 tons month-on-month). The planned arrivals at the main ports in East China this week are 11.8 tons, and the arrivals at the secondary ports are 3 tons, with an overall slightly high level, and the main ports are expected to have a slight inventory build-up [1]. - The arrival of foreign ethylene glycol ships has returned to normal this week, and the rising trend of port inventory can be moderately alleviated [2].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that Baomo Co., Ltd. experienced a stock price increase of 5.15%, reaching 6.12 CNY per share, with a total market capitalization of 3.745 billion CNY [1] - Baomo Co., Ltd. is primarily engaged in the research, production, sales, and technical services of polyacrylamide, surfactants, and related chemicals, as well as photovoltaic power generation [1] - The company's main business revenue composition includes oilfield chemicals at 88.91%, environmental water treatment at 6.80%, non-oilfield chemicals at 3.99%, and other supplementary services at 0.30% [1] Group 2 - Longcheng Fund's Longcheng Anxin Return Mixed A Fund entered the top ten circulating shareholders of Baomo Co., Ltd., holding 2.6252 million shares, which is 0.43% of the circulating shares [2] - The Longcheng Anxin Return Mixed A Fund has achieved a year-to-date return of 18.41%, ranking 4354 out of 8100 in its category [2] - The fund's total scale is 862 million CNY, and it has a cumulative return of 358.57% since its inception [2] Group 3 - The fund manager of Longcheng Anxin Return Mixed A is Han Lin, who has a tenure of 9 years and 231 days, with a best fund return of 160.8% during his management [3] - The other fund manager, Tang Ran, has a tenure of 3 years and 95 days, with a best fund return of 6.98% during his management [3] - The total asset scale of Han Lin's fund is 1.536 billion CNY, while Tang Ran's fund has a total asset scale of 932 million CNY [3]

Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints - The MEG has limited downside space and has support at the [3400] price level. In the context of weak cost (oil and coal), high self - valuation, and large - scale production in 2026, the EGO1 price is under continuous pressure. From a realistic perspective, the inventory accumulation amplitude from November to December is relatively obvious, and there is still pressure from the expectation of new device production in the far - month. In the medium - to - long - term fundamental cycle, ethylene glycol may enter a new expansion cycle from 2026 - 2027. New production in 2026 is about 2.15 million tons, and there are still many large - scale device production plans after 2027. Therefore, the ethylene glycol price will show a bottom - consolidation state later [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Single - side Situation EG - The explicit inventory has accumulated relatively quickly on a month - on - month basis, and the absolute level is still at a neutral level in the same period of history. The port shipment volume has slightly rebounded on a month - on - month basis this cycle, and the absolute level has reached a low level over the years. The MEG port inventory in the main ports of East China is about 795,000 tons (a month - on - month increase of 70,000 tons). The ethylene glycol inventory of polyester factories has remained flat on a month - on - month basis, and the inventory days of downstream factories are about 14.2 days, with an overall slightly higher - than - neutral level. As of December 11, the overall ethylene glycol operating load in mainland China is 69.98% (a month - on - month decrease of 3.01%), and the operating load of ethylene glycol produced by oxalic acid catalytic hydrogenation (syngas) is 72.17% (a month - on - month decrease of 0.41%). Many oil - based and coal - based devices have carried out or planned maintenance [7][8]. PF - This cycle, the price center of polyester raw materials has moved down, the short - fiber profit has slightly recovered on a month - on - month basis, and the finished - product inventory of downstream yarn mills has remained stable. The short - fiber load has remained high, and the absolute inventory level of short - fiber factories has decreased to a relatively neutral level. The profit of yarn mills has slightly recovered at a low level this cycle. The raw - material inventory of downstream yarn mills has remained stable on a month - on - month basis, and the finished - product inventory has run smoothly. The short - fiber production capacity expansion is limited from 2025 - 2026, and there is still support for the profit [9][66]. 2. MEG Key Concerns Supply - side Production Rhythm - Before the production: A 460,000 - ton syngas - to - ethylene glycol new device of Sichuan Wuguo Kai was put into production in the middle of the month and was included in the production and sales statistics in June; a 900,000 - ton/year ethylene glycol device of Shandong Yuxian Chemical was put into production in September and was included in the production base in October. As of November 2025, the newly added production capacity in the current year is 1.5 million tons, with a production - capacity growth rate of 5.2%. A 200,000 - ton/year coal - to - ethylene glycol new device of Ningxia Kunpeng is expected to be put into production by the end of the year. It is estimated that the total newly added production capacity in 2025 is 1.7 million tons, with a production - capacity growth rate of 5.9% [18]. Demand - side Production Rhythm - As of November 2025, the total polyester production capacity put into production in the downstream demand side is 2.55 million tons, including 1.25 million tons of polyester bottle - chips and 950,000 tons of polyester filament. As of November 2025, the newly added production capacity in the current year is 2.55 million tons, with a production - capacity growth rate of 3.0%. There is still about 2.5 million tons of polyester production capacity to be put into production this year, and the expected annual production - capacity growth rate is about 6% [19]. Cost Curve - The process with the largest production - capacity proportion is taken as the upper - marginal anchor of the price; the process cost with the highest coal - to - ethylene glycol profit is taken as the lower - marginal anchor of the price. The enterprise production - capacity proportion of the naphtha - to - ethylene method in the ethylene method is the largest, accounting for 60% of the total ethylene - glycol production capacity. The cost of the ethylene - glycol naphtha - to - ethylene method in East China is 5185 yuan/ton, and the profit is - 1200 yuan/ton. The cost of the single - chain coal - to - ethylene glycol in East China is 4480 yuan/ton, and the coal - to - ethylene glycol profit is - 870 yuan/ton [19]. 3. MEG Supply - and - Demand Situation Load - As of December 11, the overall ethylene glycol operating load in mainland China is 69.93% (a month - on - month decrease of 3.01%), and the operating load of ethylene glycol produced by oxalic acid catalytic hydrogenation (syngas) is 72.17% (a month - on - month decrease of 0.41%). Many oil - based and coal - based devices have carried out or planned maintenance [30]. Inventory - The explicit inventory has accumulated relatively quickly on a month - on - month basis, and the absolute level is still at a neutral level in the same period of history. The port shipment volume has slightly rebounded on a month - on - month basis this cycle, and the absolute level has reached a low level over the years. The MEG port inventory in the main ports of East China is about 795,000 tons (a month - on - month increase of 70,000 tons). The ethylene glycol inventory of polyester factories has remained flat on a month - on - month basis, and the inventory days of downstream factories are about 14.2 days, with an overall slightly higher - than - neutral level [34]. Direct Demand - Polyester Load - A set of polyester filament and short - fiber devices have been shut down for maintenance this week, and a set of long - shut - down filament devices is warming up for restart but has not produced products normally yet. In addition, the load of other devices has been adjusted locally. As of this Friday, the preliminary calculation shows that the polyester load in mainland China is around 91.2%. As of December 11, the average order days of terminal weaving are 11.90 days, a decrease of 0.41 days compared with last week. The current market sales are still mainly winter fabrics. The spring orders for domestic and foreign trade have started, but the overall order quantity is not good. The new orders are mainly "small and scattered orders", and large orders are scarce. The average order days this week have continued to decline compared with last week. As of December 11, the average inventory level of terminal weaving finished products (long - fiber market) is 25.58 days, an increase of 0.96 days compared with last week. The large winter orders for domestic and foreign trade are scarce, and the current situation is mainly based on rigid - demand replenishment and previous contract delivery. The new large - batch orders are scarce, and the finished - product grey - cloth inventory has slowly climbed to 20 - 30 days. The market generally expects that there will be no improvement before the Spring Festival. As of December 11, the average inventory level of terminal weaving enterprise raw materials (polyester filament) is about 9.50 days, remaining stable compared with last week [40]. Direct Demand - Polyester Inventory - The absolute level of polyester inventory is relatively neutral [46]. Spread and Basis - When approaching the risk - free arbitrage opportunity, a positive spread can be arranged for MEG month - spread; the MEG basis reflects the spot situation, but due to the mature basis trade, the overall fluctuation is small; the MEG open interest reflects the degree of long - short divergence [52]. 4. PF Situation Valuation - From 2025 - 2026, the short - fiber production capacity expansion is limited, and there is still support for the profit. This cycle, the price center of polyester raw materials has moved down, the short - fiber profit has slightly recovered on a month - on - month basis, and the finished - product inventory of downstream yarn mills has remained stable. The short - fiber load has remained high, and the absolute inventory level of short - fiber factories has decreased to a relatively neutral level. The profit of yarn mills has slightly recovered at a low level this cycle. The raw - material inventory of downstream yarn mills has remained stable on a month - on - month basis, and the finished - product inventory has run smoothly [65][66]. Supply - The short - fiber supply has remained at a high level, and the absolute inventory has decreased to a relatively neutral level [78]. Downstream - The profit of downstream yarn mills has run stably this cycle, and the yarn - mill load has remained stable. The raw - material inventory of downstream yarn mills has slightly decreased on a month - on - month basis, and the finished - product inventory has slightly accumulated. Currently, the absolute inventory level has a slightly higher pressure [84][90]. Spread and Basis - Information on PF2601 basis, PF1 - 2 month - spread, 1.4D direct - spinning polyester staple fiber processing fee, and PF2601 disk profit is provided, but specific analysis is not given in the summary [67][69].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - PTA: Core view, month - spread, cost, device changes, downstream demand, and processing profit are rated neutral; spot and supply - demand balance are rated cautiously bullish [5] - PX: Core view, month - spread, spot, import, and downstream demand, and supply - demand balance are rated neutral; device changes and processing profit are rated cautiously bearish [6] - Ethylene Glycol (MEG): Core view and device changes, and import, and downstream demand are rated neutral; month - spread and spot, and supply - demand balance are rated cautiously bearish; processing profit is rated cautiously bullish [7] 2. Core Views - PTA: The near - end is tight, short - term supply - demand changes little, expected to destock in December. PXN at a high level reflects strong expectations, and investors should buy on dips [5][70] - PX: The overall pattern is expected to be good. High PXN valuation reflects expectations, short - term is expected to fluctuate, and investors should buy on dips [6][95] - Ethylene Glycol: There is an increase in maintenance on the margin, the balance has improved, but there is still inventory accumulation pressure. The valuation is not high, and the downside space is expected to be limited. The sustainability of the seasonal inventory - accumulation - driven rise needs to be observed, and it is expected to fluctuate in the short term [7][138] 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs 3.1 Terminal and Polyester - Terminal demand is seasonally weakening. The operating rates of texturing, weaving, and dyeing have slightly decreased to 85%, 69%, and 74% respectively. New orders are weakening, and finished - product inventory is rising [9] - As of December 5, polyester load is around 91.8%, cash flow is at a low level, and average inventory is around 16 days. Polyester inventory pressure is not high and is slightly rising. Due to the late Spring Festival in 2026, polyester operating rate remains high, and overall cash flow performance is average [21] - Polyester overall profitability is average. The profits of filament POY and FDY are compressed, while staple fiber profitability is acceptable [22] - As of December 5, POY, DTY, FDY, and staple fiber inventories are 16.2, 26.8, 16.5, and 8.2 days respectively [32] - It is estimated that the polyester load in November and December will be 91% and 90% respectively. In the future, due to low inventory pressure and the late Spring Festival in 2026, the loads of filament and staple fiber are expected to remain high [48] 3.2 PTA - PTA devices are under planned maintenance, with a significant amount of maintenance. YS Ningbo, Dahua, Hainan, Ineos, Nengtou, and Dushan 1 are under maintenance [51] - As of December 5, PTA social inventory (excluding credit warehouse receipts) is 216.9 tons, slightly decreasing. Inventory pressure before the end of the year is not high [55] - PTA balance table shows little change, with the near - end tight. Short - term supply - demand and expectations are good, and the valuation has reacted. Investors should buy on dips [70] - The net short positions of foreign - controlled futures company seats have decreased [71] 3.3 PX - U.S. gasoline inventory has rebounded from the bottom, and gasoline cracking has declined from a high level [81] - Blending for gasoline is average, and short - process profitability in Asia has slightly improved [83] - The aromatics price spread between the U.S. and Asia has slightly narrowed. The toluene price spread between the U.S. and Asia is 212 yuan, and the xylene price spread is 150 dollars. Xylene tariffs have been exempted [88] - Domestic PX load remains stable at 88.2%. Wushi Petrochemical has slightly increased its load, Zhejiang Petrochemical has slightly decreased its load, Sinochem Quanzhou is under maintenance, and Fujia plans to restart a line at the end of the month. Asian load is 78.6%, and GS is reducing its load with a subsequent disproportionation shutdown plan [90] - The PX balance shows a loose supply - demand balance. PXN is around 280 dollars, and the short - term is expected to fluctuate. Investors should buy on dips [95] - The PX outer - inner price spread has stabilized, the PX 1 - 5 month - spread remains stable, and TA05 processing fee has slightly rebounded from the bottom [96] - Industrial chain profits have slightly recovered from a low level. Valuation is mainly concentrated in PXN, which has recently risen to a high level, while PTA processing fee remains low. There is an opportunity to expand PTA processing fee after the demand off - season [105] 3.4 Ethylene Glycol - As of December 5, the total MEG load is 72.8%, and the coal - based load is 72%. Oil - based process maintenance has increased, and coal - based units have restarted after maintenance [107] - Domestic MEG load is 72.95%, and syngas - based load is 72.5%. Sanjiang plans to reduce its load, Maoming Petrochemical has shut down, Sinochem Quanzhou is shut down, CNOOC Shell Phase 2 and Fude plan to conduct maintenance on the 8th, and Shenghong's 100 - ton unit will be shut down until Q2 2026. Coal - chemical maintenance units are restarting one after another [114] - MEG profits are compressed. Oil - based units remain in losses, and coal - based losses have increased. There is an increase in oil - based unit maintenance on the margin [115] - Overseas device maintenance and load reduction have increased. 11 - 12 - month imports are estimated to be 650,000 tons each month, and imports may decline in January - February [125] - As of December 8, the MEG port inventory in the East China main port area is about 819,000 tons, an increase of 66,000 tons from last week. The actual arrival from December 1 - 7 is 163,000 tons, and the expected arrival from December 8 - 14 is 155,000 tons. Port inventory is expected to rise. Polyester factories' MEG raw material inventory days are 13.8 days [133] - There is an increase in maintenance on the margin, the balance has improved, but there is still inventory accumulation pressure. The valuation is not high, and the short - term is expected to fluctuate at a low level [138]