热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 股指： 新浪合作平台光大期货开户 安全快捷有保障 责任编辑：赵思远 热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 股指： 昨日，A股市场震荡下跌，TMT板块继续收涨，房地产相关板块回调。Wind全A下跌0.55%，成交额 1.92万亿元，中证1000指数下跌0.57%，中证500指数下跌0.71%，沪深300指数下跌0.51%，上证50指数 下跌0.71%。中央政治局会议召开，对2026年经济工作进行部署，预计中央经济工作会议也会在近期召 开。提振内需仍是2026年经济工作的重心。本周同时将召开美联储议息会议，日本央行加息也可能在近 期落地。近期政策的密集出台可能在短期内提振股指流动性、推升指数波动率。以AI为首的新质生产 力仍是股指上涨的核心驱动，目前市场存在观望情绪。一方面，尽管相关科技题材业绩确定性较强，但 产业链盈利模式尚未形成闭环，叠加目前偏高的估值，资本市场态度谨慎；另一方面，以消费和周期题 昨日，A股市场震荡下跌，TMT板块继续收涨，房地产相关板块回调。Wind全A下跌0.55%，成交额 1.92万亿元，中证1 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Bullish: Polysilicon, Lithium Carbonate [1] - Bearish: Fuel Oil [1] - Volatile: Equity Index, Treasury Bonds, Copper, Aluminum Oxide, Zinc, Nickel, Stainless Steel, Tin, Precious Metals, Industrial Silicon, Carbonate, Rebar, Hot Rolled Coil, Iron Ore, Manganese Ore, Silicomanganese, Ferrosilicon, Coke, Coking Coal, Black Metal, Soda Ash, Glass, Jiao Coal, Palm Oil, Cotton, Sugar, Soybean, Pulp, Log, Live Pig, Crude Oil, BR Rubber, PTA, Ethylene Glycol, Short Fiber, Styrene, Urea, Propylene, PVC, Caustic Soda, LPG [1] Core Viewpoints - The market divergence is expected to gradually be digested during the index's volatile adjustment, and the index is expected to rise further with the emergence of new mainlines. The market adjustment provides an opportunity to lay out for the index's further upward movement next year [1]. - Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned about interest - rate risks, suppressing the upward space [1]. - For various commodities, their prices are affected by factors such as macro - economic conditions, supply - demand relationships, and cost supports, showing different trends of rise, fall, or volatility [1]. Summary by Category Macro - Financial - Equity Index: Market divergence will be digested during adjustment, with potential for further upward movement. Central Huijin's support limits downside risk. Market adjustment provides a layout opportunity, and traders can build long positions during the adjustment and use the stock - index futures' discount structure to increase the probability of long - term investment success [1]. - Treasury Bonds: Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable, but short - term interest - rate risks are warned by the central bank, suppressing the upward space [1]. Non - Ferrous Metals - Copper: There is a risk of price decline after the digestion of short - term positive sentiment [1]. - Aluminum Oxide: Domestic production and inventory are both increasing, the fundamental situation is weak, and prices are under downward pressure. Attention should be paid to the price changes at the mine end [1]. - Zinc: After the digestion of short - term macro - positive factors and with oversupply, there is a risk of price decline. Pay attention to short - selling opportunities at high prices [1]. - Nickel: Fed's interest - rate cut expectation has risen, and the macro sentiment has improved. Indonesia's restrictions on nickel - related smelting projects have limited impact. Short - term nickel prices may fluctuate with the macro situation. It is recommended to go long at low levels in the short - term range, and the medium - to - long - term supply of nickel will remain in surplus [1]. - Stainless Steel: The macro sentiment has improved, and raw materials have stopped falling. The stainless - steel futures will fluctuate and rebound in the short term. Pay attention to the actual production situation of steel mills [1]. - Tin: After the digestion of macro - positive sentiment, due to the tense situation in Congo and the short - term supply not being restored, tin prices have strengthened. However, beware of the risk of short - term over - rise and fall. The medium - to - long - term outlook is bullish [1]. - Precious Metals: Gold may fluctuate within a range. Silver's short - term price will continue to fluctuate sharply. Platinum is expected to fluctuate in the short term. For palladium, the short - term strategy is to short at high levels, and the medium - term [long platinum, short palladium] arbitrage strategy can continue to be held [1]. - Industrial Silicon: Northwest production is increasing while Southwest production is decreasing. The production schedules of polysilicon and organic silicon in December are decreasing [1]. - Polysilicon: There is an expectation of capacity reduction in the medium - to - long - term. Terminal installations are increasing marginally in the fourth quarter. Large manufacturers are reluctant to sell and are strong in price support [1]. - Lithium Carbonate: The traditional peak season for new energy vehicles is approaching, and the energy - storage demand is strong. The supply side is resuming production and increasing output [1]. Black Metals - Rebar and Hot Rolled Coil: The macro - driving force is increasing in December, providing some rebound momentum. After the futures price rises, it is beneficial for basis positive - arbitrage positions to enter. Do not chase high in single - side trading [1]. - Iron Ore: Direct demand is okay, with cost support, but supply is high, inventory is accumulating, and the price rebound space is limited [1]. - Manganese Ore and Silicomanganese: The short - term production profit is poor, with cost support, but supply is high, and the price rebound is limited [1]. - Ferrosilicon: Supply and demand provide support, and the valuation is low, but short - term sentiment dominates, and price fluctuations are strong [1]. - Soda Ash: Follows glass, but with average supply and demand, there is great resistance to price increase [1]. - Coke and Coking Coal: From a valuation perspective, the decline is close to the end. From a driving perspective, downstream replenishment may start around mid - December. For now, use a short - term strategy for single - side trading and wait and see for the medium - to - long - term [1]. Agricultural Products - Palm Oil: The impact of floods on production is limited, and the near - month inventory pressure is large. The domestic arrival in December is expected to be large, and the basis is expected to be weak [1]. - Cotton: There is support but no driving force in the short term. Future attention should be paid to policies, planting intentions, weather, and demand in the peak season [1]. - Sugar: There is a consensus on short - selling due to global surplus and increased domestic supply. If the price continues to fall, there is strong cost support, but there is a lack of continuous driving force in the short - term fundamentals [1]. - Soybean: China's purchases support the US market. Brazilian weather lacks obvious speculation themes, and the short - term price is expected to fluctuate [1]. - Pulp: There are cancellations of old warehouse receipts and registrations of new ones. The recovery of demand remains to be verified, and the short - term price will fluctuate [1]. - Log: The fundamental situation has weakened but has been priced in the market. The risk - reward ratio of short - selling after a sharp decline is low. It is recommended to wait and see [1]. - Live Pig: The spot price is stabilizing, with demand support, and the production capacity still needs to be further released [1]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude Oil: OPEC + has suspended production increase until the end of 2026, the Russia - Ukraine peace agreement is postponed, and the US has increased sanctions on Russia [1]. - Fuel Oil: Bearish due to factors such as OPEC + policies, the Russia - Ukraine situation, and US sanctions [1]. - Asphalt: Short - term supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, following crude oil. The demand during the 14th Five - Year Plan may be falsified, and supply is sufficient. The profit is high [1]. - BR Rubber: The price support of butadiene is limited. Refinery overhauls may bring a positive expectation. High inventory restricts price increase, but the synthetic valuation is low [1]. - PTA: OPEC's production increase has slowed down, and there are positive factors such as domestic PTA export improvement [1]. - Ethylene Glycol: Inventory is increasing, prices are falling, and cost support is weakening [1]. - Short Fiber: The price follows cost closely, and the basis has strengthened [1]. - Styrene: The cost support is weakening due to factors such as weak Asian benzene prices and reduced US gasoline demand [1]. - Urea: There is limited upward space due to insufficient domestic demand, but there is support from cost and anti - dumping [1]. - Propylene: Supply pressure is large, downstream improvement is less than expected, but cost support is strong [1]. - PVC: Supply pressure is increasing, and demand is weakening [1]. - Caustic Soda: There are factors such as delivery from Guangxi alumina plants, high - load operation, and potential squeezing risks [1]. - LPG: The international oil and gas market returns to a loose fundamental situation. The CP/FEI has rebounded. The price will fluctuate within a range after a decline [1].

美国财政部网站数据显示，美国国债收益率周四（12月4日）普遍上涨，10年期美债收益率涨5BP至4.11%，2年期美债收益率涨3BP至3.52%。 其余期限方面，5年期涨6BP至3.68%，7年期涨5BP至3.87%，20年期涨4BP至4.72%，30年期涨3BP至4.73%。 美国财政部公布的2025年11月美国公共债务情况显示，未偿还债务总额达到38.40万亿美元，其中，长短期国债总规模达到30.20万亿美元。美国国会最新确 定的联邦政府债务上限为41.1万亿美元。 庞大的债务规模带来沉重的利息负担，每年的利息支出预计达到1.2万亿美元。美国财政部网站显示，美国国债的平均利率为3.27%。法国巴黎银行美国利率 策略主管Guneet Dhingra表示，美国政府支出与收入之间的缺口长期存在，这正是过去二十年来债务负担持续攀升的根本原因。新冠疫情之后，这一趋势进 一步被放大，因为大量债务是在更高利率水平下借入的，使得利息成本本身成为加剧美国财政压力的重要因素。 | Record Date | Security Type Description | Security Description TJ | Averag ...

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market showed mixed performance with the Shanghai Composite Index slightly declining by 0.06%, while the Shenzhen Component Index and ChiNext Index increased by 0.4% and 1.01% respectively, indicating sector-specific movements in the market [1] Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3875.79, down by 2.21 points or 0.06% [2] - The Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13006.72, up by 51.46 points or 0.40% [2] - The ChiNext Index closed at 3067.48, increasing by 30.70 points or 1.01% [2] - Overall market turnover was 156.17 billion, a decrease of 12.19 billion from the previous day [1] Sector Performance - The consumer sector weakened, with retail, catering, liquor, and e-commerce showing significant declines [1] - The aluminum, gold, and rare earth industries also performed poorly [1] - Strong performance was noted in sectors such as Moore Threads, commercial aerospace, robotics, and semiconductor concepts [1] ETF Performance - The technology ETF from Harvest Fund rose by 3.85%, with semiconductor equipment ETFs also showing strong gains [4] - The human-robot sector saw a broad rally, with ETFs like the Invesco Robotics 50 ETF increasing by 3% [4] - The consumer sector ETFs, particularly food and beverage, experienced declines, with the liquor ETF down by 1.58% and the food and beverage ETF down by 1.33% [4]

Market Overview - The three major A-share indices collectively rose in the morning session, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.04%, the Shenzhen Component Index up 0.35%, and the ChiNext Index up 0.76% [1] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing markets reached 10,402 billion yuan, a decrease of 354 billion yuan compared to the previous day [1] - Nearly 3,500 stocks in the market experienced declines [1] Sector Performance - The robotics industry chain was active, with embodied intelligence and Yushu Robotics leading the gains [1] - Commercial aerospace and low-altitude economy concept stocks also performed well [1] - Superhard materials, consumer goods, and AI wearable concept stocks weakened [1] ETF Performance - The humanoid robot sector saw a significant surge, with robot ETFs from E Fund, Invesco Great Wall, and Fuguo all rising by 3% [1] - The semiconductor equipment sector strengthened, with the Science and Technology Innovation Semiconductor ETF from Penghua, Huatai-PineBridge, and Huaxia rising by 2.82%, 2.71%, and 2.65% respectively [1] - The consumer goods sector experienced widespread declines, with food and beverage leading the drop, as the food and beverage ETFs fell by 1.58% and 1.33% respectively [1] - The tourism sector also saw declines, with the tourism ETF down by 1.15% [1] - Long-term government bond ETFs showed a downward trend, with the 30-year government bond ETFs from Bosera and others falling by 1.31% and 1.24% respectively [1]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2) Core Viewpoints - The short - term trading opportunities for A - share index futures are limited due to low trading volume and volatility [2]. - The current interest rate is approaching the high level before the end of September, and the allocation value of bonds within 10 years is relatively improved. The 30 - year bonds may be oversold under emotional drive. It is recommended to wait and see for the unilateral strategy and focus on the Politburo meeting and the new regulations on bond fund redemption fees [2]. - Gold is in a consolidation phase near $4200, and it is advisable to be cautious about chasing long positions unilaterally. Silver is oscillating strongly and may reach $60. Investors are advised to lock in profits after accumulating floating profits [2]. - The container shipping index is expected to fluctuate in the short - term [2]. - For steel, it is recommended to focus on the long - rebar and short - iron ore arbitrage. Iron ore is in high - level consolidation, and coking coal and coke are also in a consolidation state [2]. - Copper prices are rising again, and aluminum prices are rising with increased positions. Different trading strategies are recommended for various non - ferrous metals [2][3]. - For new energy and chemical products, different products have different market trends and corresponding trading suggestions, such as PX having strong support in the medium - term, while PTA's rebound space is limited [3]. - In the energy and chemical industry, different products have different market situations, such as LLDPE's trading volume weakening significantly and PP's supply having an upward expectation [3]. - In the agricultural products market, different products have different trends, such as palm oil falling due to potential inventory growth and sugar oscillating weakly [3]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Financial Sector - **Stock Index Futures**: A - share index futures have low trading volume and volatility, and the short - term trading space is limited. The dividend sector is firm, and the index futures are trading weakly [2]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The current interest rate is approaching the high level before the end of September. The 30 - year bonds are relatively weak, and the short - term market driver may come from the policy expectation difference. It is recommended to wait and see for the unilateral strategy and focus on the Politburo meeting and the new regulations on bond fund redemption fees. The positive arbitrage strategy for the 2603 contract is recommended for the spot - futures strategy [2]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold is in a consolidation phase near $4200, and it is advisable to sell out - of - the - money put options to earn time value. Silver is oscillating strongly and may reach $60. Investors are advised to lock in profits after accumulating floating profits. Platinum and palladium should be traded with a short - term high - selling and low - buying strategy, and the long - platinum and short - palladium hedge should take profits at high levels [2]. Black Sector - **Steel**: Steel mills are reducing production. It is recommended to focus on the long - rebar and short - iron ore arbitrage and narrow the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar [2]. - **Iron Ore**: The shipment is increasing, the arrival is decreasing, and the port inventory is increasing. It is in high - level consolidation, with the range from 750 to 820 [2]. - **Coking Coal**: The price reduction range of coal in the production area is expanding, and the price of Mongolian coal is stable. The futures price is falling again, with the range from 1050 to 1150, and the 1 - 5 reverse spread is recommended [2]. - **Coke**: The first round of price cuts in December has been implemented, and the port trading price is falling. It is in a consolidation state, with the range from 1550 to 1700, and the 1 - 5 reverse spread is recommended [2]. Non - Ferrous Sector - **Copper**: The LME cancelled warehouse receipts are increasing significantly, and copper prices are rising again. The short - term decline space is limited [2]. - **Aluminum**: Aluminum prices are rising with increased positions. Different trading strategies are recommended for aluminum, waste aluminum, and aluminum alloy, with corresponding price ranges [2][3]. - **Other Non - Ferrous Metals**: For zinc, supply reduction and interest - rate cut expectations provide support, but the spot trading is dull [4]. For other non - ferrous metals such as tin, nickel, and stainless steel, different market trends and trading suggestions are provided [3]. New Energy and Chemical Sector - **New Energy**: Different new energy products such as polysilicon and lithium carbonate have different market trends and corresponding trading suggestions, such as polysilicon futures rising while the spot price is stable [3]. - **Chemical Products**: Different chemical products have different market situations, such as PX having strong support in the medium - term, while PTA's rebound space is limited. Different trading strategies are recommended for each product [3]. Energy and Chemical Sector - Different energy and chemical products such as LLDPE, PP, and methanol have different market trends and corresponding trading suggestions, such as LLDPE's trading volume weakening significantly and PP's supply having an upward expectation [3]. Agricultural Products Sector - Different agricultural products such as palm oil, sugar, and cotton have different market trends and corresponding trading suggestions, such as palm oil falling due to potential inventory growth and sugar oscillating weakly [3].

Group 1: Currency and Monetary Policy - Deutsche Bank analysts suggest that if the next Federal Reserve Chair fails to effectively address inflation risks, the US dollar may face downward pressure, particularly if they respond to President Trump's interest rate cut proposals [1] - The expectation of a more accommodative stance from the Federal Reserve could pressure the dollar even before any actual policy changes occur [1] Group 2: European Banking Sector - Morgan Stanley analysts express optimism for European bank stocks, predicting continued growth in a "perfect environment" characterized by economic improvement, stable interest rates, and low unemployment [2] - The Stoxx 600 Bank Index has seen a cumulative increase of 55% this year, significantly outperforming the benchmark index's 13% rise, with several banks expected to double their stock prices by 2025 [2] Group 3: Indian Stock Market - Nomura Securities forecasts a 12% increase in India's Nifty 50 index by the end of 2026, driven by supportive policies and recovering economic momentum [3] Group 4: Global Economic Outlook - BNP Paribas predicts a resilient global economy in 2026, supported by monetary easing, fiscal stimulus, and strong household balance sheets [4] - The bank anticipates US economic growth of 1.9% and Eurozone growth of 1.5% in 2026 [4] Group 5: UK Bond Market - BNP Paribas expects UK government bond yields to remain range-bound in the first half of 2026 before declining in the second half, with a forecast of 4.50% by Q2 and 4.30% by year-end [5] Group 6: Eurozone Inflation - ING economists note that a slight increase in Eurozone inflation does not provide the European Central Bank with a reason to cut rates in December, as inflation remains high and balanced by various factors [6] Group 7: Japanese Bond Market - Bank of America forecasts that Japan's 10-year government bond yield will rise to 2% by the end of 2026 due to wage growth and fiscal expansion [7] Group 8: Gold Market - China International Capital Corporation maintains a bullish outlook on gold, suggesting that the bull market is not over despite recent price increases [8] Group 9: Liquidity in December - China International Capital Corporation indicates that there is likely no liquidity gap in December, with limited risks for the bond market [9] Group 10: Energy Storage Sector - CITIC Securities highlights a significant increase in the certainty of energy storage expansion, driven by strong investment and supportive policies [10] Group 11: Chinese Equity Market - China Postal Securities predicts a "long cycle, structural bull market" for the Chinese equity market in 2026, supported by improving corporate earnings [11]

Group 1 - Japan's stock market faced a significant decline, with the Nikkei 225 index dropping over 2% to 49,224.94 points, and closing down 1.89% at 49,303.28 points [1][2] - Japanese government bonds plummeted due to renewed expectations of interest rate hikes, with the 2-year bond yield surpassing 1% for the first time since 2008, and the 10-year yield rising to 1.85%, marking the highest levels since June 2008 [1][2] - The probability of a Bank of Japan interest rate hike in December increased to 64%, as Governor Kazuo Ueda signaled a potential adjustment to the monetary policy [2] Group 2 - The cryptocurrency market continued to decline, with Bitcoin falling to around $86,000, down 5.34%, and Ethereum dropping over 5%, while other cryptocurrencies like Solana and Dogecoin fell more than 7% [2] - Over the past 24 hours, more than 210,000 individuals in the cryptocurrency market faced liquidation, totaling approximately $639 million [2]

Group 1: Energy and Metals Crude Oil - Overnight international oil prices rebounded, with the Brent 01 contract rising 1.41%. The Russia-Ukraine geopolitical risk is entangled between sanctions and peace talks. Supply and demand face greater inventory accumulation expectations in Q4 and Q1 next year, and the downward drive for oil prices remains. Focus on the progress of the Russia-Ukraine peace plan negotiation and the Venezuelan geopolitical risk [1] Precious Metals - Overnight precious metals rose. As several Fed officials advocated a December rate cut, the implied rate cut probability in the interest rate market rose to 80%. The market is uncertain, and precious metals are oscillating at high levels waiting for a directional breakthrough [2] Copper - Overnight copper prices oscillated. LME copper rose with precious metals at the end of the session. The domestic spot market has a certain bullish sentiment, and the SMM social inventory decreased by 1.39 million tons to 18.06 million tons [3] Aluminum - Overnight SHFE aluminum fluctuated narrowly. The social inventory of aluminum ingots and bars decreased by 0.8 million tons on Monday. The aluminum price may continue to adjust, with support around 21,100 yuan [4] Alumina - Alumina's operating capacity is at a historical high, and the supply surplus pattern remains unchanged. It will operate weakly before large-scale production cuts [5] Cast Aluminum Alloy - The spot price of Baotai ADC12 remained at 20,700 yuan. The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and it will continue to follow the aluminum price, with the possibility of a narrowing spread with AL [6] Zinc - Domestic and overseas mine TC continued to decline. SHFE zinc oscillated in the range of 22,200 - 23,000 yuan/ton. The external demand supports zinc consumption, but the domestic demand is expected to weaken [7] Lead - SHFE lead oscillated in the range of 17,000 - 17,500 yuan/ton. The export of lead-acid batteries is expected to remain under pressure [8] Nickel and Stainless Steel - SHFE nickel rebounded, and stainless steel inventory decreased. However, the short-term contradiction lies in the macro level, and it is advisable to short on rebounds [9] Tin - LME tin closed higher, and SHFE tin oscillated at high levels. It is still advisable to short, and at the same time, match with out-of-the-money call options to hedge risks [10] Lithium Carbonate - The futures price of lithium carbonate opened low and moved lower. The market is highly divergent, and risk control should be prioritized [11] Polysilicon - The fundamentals of polysilicon are weak. The futures price will maintain an oscillating pattern [12] Industrial Silicon - The industrial silicon futures closed slightly lower. It will maintain an oscillating pattern in the short term [13] Iron Ore - The iron ore futures oscillated strongly overnight. The fundamentals are marginally looser, and the price is expected to oscillate [15] Coke - The coke price oscillated. It may oscillate weakly [16] Coking Coal - The coking coal price oscillated weakly. It may oscillate weakly [17] Manganese Silicon - The manganese silicon price oscillated. The bottom support is expected to move down [18] Silicon Ferrosilicon - The silicon ferrosilicon price oscillated. The bottom support will be tested [19] Fuel Oil and Low-Sulfur Fuel Oil - Both high-sulfur and low-sulfur fuel oils face pressure from abundant supply and weak demand [21] Asphalt - The asphalt price is expected to oscillate weakly under pressure [22] Group 2: Chemicals Urea - Urea supply remains sufficient. The market may return to a stalemate [23] Methanol - The methanol futures rose sharply. It is advisable to try to go long on the 5 - 9 spread at low prices [24] Pure Benzene - It is advisable to continue the idea of shorting on rebounds and consider option allocation [25] Styrene - The supply and demand of styrene are in a tight balance, but the support from the cost and demand sides is questionable [26] Polypropylene, Plastic, and Propylene - The market lacks guidance. Polyethylene supply pressure increases, and polypropylene supply is expected to increase slightly [27] PVC and Caustic Soda - PVC may follow the cost. Caustic soda will operate weakly [28] PX and PTA - PX is still strong before new capacity is put into production. PTA is driven by cost [29] Ethylene Glycol - The ethylene glycol price has a short-term rebound expectation, but the rebound space is limited [30] Short Fiber and Bottle Chip - Short fiber prices fluctuate with raw materials. Bottle chip is cost-driven [31] Group 3: Agricultural Products Soybean and Soybean Meal - The soybean meal futures rebounded. Pay attention to the impact of La Niña on South American soybean production [35] Soybean Oil and Palm Oil - Soybean oil and palm oil will oscillate in the short term. Palm oil is weaker [36] Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - The rapeseed market focuses on Australian seeds. It is advisable to wait and see in the short term [37] Domestic Soybeans - Domestic soybeans rebounded strongly. Pay attention to the spot market and policy guidance [38] Corn - The corn futures oscillated at a high level. Pay attention to the sales progress of new corn in the Northeast [39] Live Hogs - The far-month hog futures rose, and the near-month is weak. The price may form a double bottom [40] Eggs - The number of newly laid hens is expected to decrease in December. Pay attention to the spot price [41] Cotton - The cotton futures may oscillate in the short term. It is advisable to wait and see [42] Sugar - The international sugar supply is sufficient. Pay attention to the production in India, Thailand, and Guangxi [43] Apples - The apple futures oscillated at a high level. Pay attention to the inventory removal [44] Wood - The wood futures oscillated. It is advisable to wait and see [45] Pulp - The pulp futures fell slightly. It is advisable to wait and see [46] Group 4: Financial Futures Stock Index Futures - A-shares rose in a shrinking volume. The short-term macro liquidity is uncertain. It is advisable to wait and see [47] Treasury Bond Futures - The treasury bond futures oscillated upward. The yield curve may flatten slightly [48] Group 5: Shipping Container Freight Index (European Line) - The SCFIS European route index rose sharply. The 02 contract may maintain a discount [20]

不断飙升的收益率会造成什么后果呢？ 1.日本要为债务支付更高的利息。23年，日本还在实行负利率时，当年为国债付了8.5万亿日元利息（占 该年财政收入的11%），除以约1200万亿债务余额，平均借款利息0.7%。 而目前，基准利率已来到0.5%，再加上投资者要求更高的风险补偿，今年借款利息可能要较23年翻一 倍，来到1. 日本国债正在被疯狂抛售。 当前十年期国债收益率已经飙升到1.78%，08年金融危机以来最高，20年期2.79%，新世纪以来最高， 30年期3.3%，历史最高。 债券价格与利率成反比，因此抛售导致的价格下跌，会造成收益率上升。笼统理解，收益率是对风险的 补偿，风险越高，投资者要求的回报就越高。 ...