本文源自：金融界AI电报 基本金属在亚洲交易时段下跌。伦敦金属交易所三个月期铜合约下跌1.1%，至每吨11,130.50美元，铝 价下跌0.45%，锌价下跌0.6%。Sucden Financial分析师在一份报告中表示，基本金属板块可能需要新的 催化剂才能将价格推高至阻力位上方。这些催化剂可能包括额外的供应中断，或更强劲的宏观信号，例 如美元走弱。他们补充说，如果没有这些催化剂，市场可能会盘整，但由于价差收紧，价格风险仍偏向 上行。 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [2] Core Views - Precious metals are showing upward momentum, with COMEX gold rising by 4.77% and COMEX silver increasing by 14.95%. The recent liquidity disruptions due to CME's temporary halt have created a short squeeze scenario. Long-term trends indicate that the process of de-dollarization will continue, and investors are advised to hold positions despite volatility [4] - Copper prices are expected to rise due to supply disruptions, with LME copper increasing by 3.69%. The anticipated supply-demand tightness in 2026, driven by production cuts from Freeport and Teck Resources, suggests that price adjustments should be viewed as buying opportunities [5] - Aluminum prices have increased by 2.03% this week, supported by rigid supply despite the end of the peak season. Domestic aluminum ingot inventory is reported at 446,000 tons, showing a slight decrease [5] - Tin prices have risen above 300,000 yuan/ton due to supply disruptions from the conflict in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, indicating potential short squeeze risks [6] - Lithium prices have seen a slight increase, with domestic production rising by 3% month-on-month and 49% year-on-year. The market remains tight, and investors are advised to buy on dips [6] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The closing index for the industry is at 7396.64, with a weekly high of 7829.42 and a low of 4280.14 [2] Price Movements - Basic metals: LME copper up 3.69%, aluminum up 2.03%, zinc up 1.97%, lead down 0.40%, tin up 6.30% - Precious metals: COMEX gold up 4.77%, silver up 14.95%, NYMEX palladium up 8.27%, platinum down 1.60% - New energy metals: LME nickel up 1.50%, cobalt up 0.50%, lithium carbonate up 1.57% [19] Inventory Levels - Global visible inventory changes: copper increased by 5,705 tons, aluminum decreased by 11,298 tons, zinc decreased by 855 tons, lead decreased by 3,370 tons, tin increased by 432 tons, nickel increased by 334 tons [34][36] Investment Recommendations - Recommended stocks include Xingye Silver Tin, Tin Industry Co., Huaxi Nonferrous, New Jinlu, Dazhong Mining, Guocheng Mining, Zhongkuang Resources, Shengda Resources, Chifeng Gold, Zijin Gold International, Zhaojin Gold, Shenhuo Co., and Zijin Mining [8]

Group 1: Copper and Aluminum - The demand for copper is expected to rise due to liquidity easing from the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts and increased physical demand from AI investments, particularly in data centers and power grids, leading to a sustained upward trend in copper prices [1] - The copper supply-demand imbalance persists, and the valuation of the copper sector remains relatively low, suggesting a positive investment opportunity [1] - The aluminum industry is projected to maintain a tight supply-demand balance, which will support aluminum prices and allow leading companies to achieve good profit levels due to their resource management and supply chain strategies [1] Group 2: Precious Metals - The long-term trend of "de-dollarization" is driving some countries to reduce their holdings of U.S. Treasury bonds and increase their gold reserves, a trend that is expected to continue despite easing U.S.-China trade tensions [2] - The Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts are accelerating this process, with expectations of rising precious metal prices in 2025 and beyond [2] - The upcoming U.S. midterm elections may lead to more aggressive rate cuts from the new Federal Reserve chair, further supporting the bullish outlook for precious metals [2] Group 3: Energy Metals - The demand for lithium is anticipated to return to a tight balance by 2026, driven by growth in energy storage and power demand, with a projected demand growth rate of approximately 50% from energy storage and nearly 20% from power batteries [3] - The global lithium demand is expected to grow by 24.2%, while supply growth is estimated at 18.1%, indicating a shift from a loose balance to a tight balance in the lithium market [3] - The upward trend in lithium prices is expected as the market transitions to a tighter supply-demand scenario [3] Group 4: Rare Earth Materials - Domestic rare earth prices are at a cyclical low, with expectations for a continued upward trend due to supply constraints and increasing demand from sectors like electric vehicles and wind power [4] - The demand for neodymium-iron-boron is projected to grow significantly, with estimates of 29% growth from the electric vehicle sector and 18% from wind power [4] - The tightening of supply, coupled with rising overseas prices, is likely to enhance the profitability and valuation of domestic rare earth magnet manufacturers [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Outperform the Market" for the new materials industry [7]. Core Insights - The new materials sector underperformed the CSI 300 index in November 2025, with a decline of 4.03% compared to the CSI 300's decline of 2.70%, resulting in a 1.33 percentage point lag [7][11]. - The sector's trading volume was 22,734.18 billion yuan, reflecting a 6.55% decrease from the previous month [7]. - The semiconductor materials segment continues to show growth, with global semiconductor sales reaching $69.47 billion in September 2025, marking a 25.1% year-on-year increase [42][43]. - The report highlights significant growth in the export volume and value of industrial diamonds in October, with exports amounting to 1.39 million tons and a value of $19.7 million, representing a 16.91% year-on-year increase [51]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Performance Review - The new materials index's performance in November was weaker than the CSI 300, with a decline of 4.03% [11]. - Most stocks in the new materials sector experienced declines, with 113 out of 170 stocks falling [18]. - The sector's valuation decreased, with the new materials index's PE ratio at 28.96, down 6.81% from the previous month [22]. 2. Key Industry Data Tracking - In October, the CPI turned from decline to growth, increasing by 0.2% year-on-year, while the PPI's decline narrowed to 2.1% [30][31]. - Basic metal prices showed mixed results in November, with copper down 0.81% and tin up 3.54% [37]. - The global semiconductor market continues to grow, with a 25.1% year-on-year increase in sales [42]. - The export of superhard materials showed a significant increase in October, with a notable rise in export value [51]. 3. Industry Dynamics - The report notes the issuance of an action plan for the upgrade of the non-ferrous metal industry in Henan Province [1]. - The establishment of a diamond wafer factory by Diamond Foundry is highlighted as a significant development in the new materials sector [1].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report provides market analysis and trading strategies for various commodity futures, including precious metals, base metals, black industries, agricultural products, and energy chemicals. It analyzes the market performance, fundamentals, and supply - demand situations of each commodity and gives corresponding trading suggestions based on these factors. 3. Summary by Commodity Categories Precious Metals - **Gold**: Market price oscillated on Tuesday, with London gold blocked at $4150. Weak US economic data increased rate - cut expectations. Domestic gold ETFs continued to see inflows. Suggest buying at the lower support level [2]. - **Silver**: Supply tightness gradually eased. Suggest gradually reducing long positions [2]. Base Metals - **Copper**: Price rose and then fell. December rate - cut is likely, and the market discussed the possibility of a dovish official becoming the next Fed Chair. Consider an oscillating and slightly bullish approach [3]. - **Aluminum**: The main contract price rose by 0.40% to 21,465 yuan/ton. Supply increased slightly, and demand was stable. Expected to maintain oscillating adjustment [3]. - **Alumina**: The main contract price fell by 0.33% to 2,727 yuan/ton. Supply had narrow fluctuations, and demand was high. Expected to show an oscillating and slightly bearish trend before large - scale production cuts [3]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The main 01 contract price rose by 0.22% to 8,960 yuan/ton. Supply might decline in November, and demand was supported. The price was expected to move between 8,600 - 9,400 yuan/ton. Suggest waiting and watching [4]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The LC2605 contract price rose by 5.76% to 97,340 yuan/ton. Supply was high, and demand increased. Expected to be oscillating and slightly bullish in the short - term. Pay attention to inventory data [4]. - **Polycrystalline Silicon**: The main 01 contract price rose by 2.65% to 54,730 yuan/ton. Supply decreased slightly, and demand was weak. Near - month prices were anchored to the spot range. Suggest waiting and watching [4]. - **Tin**: Price was oscillating and slightly bullish. December rate - cut was likely. Supply was tight, and demand was on - demand. Consider an oscillating and slightly bullish approach [4]. Black Industry - **Rebar**: The main 2601 contract price rose to 3,097 yuan/ton. Inventory decreased, and supply - demand was weak. Suggest leaving the market and waiting. The reference range for RB01 is 3,060 - 3,110 yuan/ton [5]. - **Iron Ore**: The main 2601 contract price rose to 795.5 yuan/ton. Supply - demand was weakening. Suggest leaving the market and waiting. The reference range for I01 is 780 - 800 yuan/ton [5]. - **Coking Coal**: The main 2601 contract price fell to 1,067 yuan/ton. Supply - demand was weakening. Suggest leaving the market and waiting. The reference range for JM01 is 1,050 - 1,100 yuan/ton [5]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal**: CBOT soybean prices rose slightly. Supply was contracting in the near - term and expected to be large in the long - term. Demand for US soybean crushing was strong. US soybeans were expected to be oscillating, and the domestic market's medium - term trend depends on tariff policies and production [6]. - **Corn**: Futures prices were oscillating and slightly bullish. Supply was delayed due to weather, and demand was strong. However, new production was expected to increase. Suggest waiting and watching [6]. - **Eggs**: Futures prices oscillated narrowly. Supply pressure decreased, and short - term prices were slightly bullish but with limited sustainability. Expected to oscillate [7]. - **Vegetable Oils**: Palm oil prices fell. Supply was high, and demand was weak. Pay attention to production and bio - diesel policies [7]. - **Sugar**: The 01 contract price rose slightly. International prices might bottom - out in the long - term, and domestic pressure was high. Suggest shorting futures and selling call options [7]. - **Cotton**: US cotton prices rebounded, and domestic prices rose. Suggest buying at low prices, with a strategy in the 13,500 - 13,800 yuan/ton range [7]. - **Pigs**: Futures prices were weaker in the near - term. Supply was abundant, and demand might increase seasonally. Expected to be oscillating and slightly bearish [7]. Energy Chemicals - **LLDPE**: Price fell slightly. Supply pressure was rising but at a slower pace, and demand was weak. Expected to be oscillating and slightly bearish in the short - term and supply - demand to be loose in the long - term. Suggest shorting at high prices [8][9]. - **PTA**: PX supply was high, and PTA supply decreased in the short - term. PX was expected to be bullish in the long - term, and short - term PTA supply - demand improved. Suggest taking profits on long PX and short PTA processing - fee positions [9]. - **Rubber**: Price fell by 0.85%. Inventory increased. Expected to maintain a wide - range oscillation [9]. - **PP**: Price fell slightly. Supply increased, and demand was stable. Expected to be oscillating and slightly bearish in the short - term and supply - demand to be loose in the long - term. Suggest shorting at high prices [9]. - **MEG**: Supply was high, and inventory increased. Suggest shorting at high prices for the 01 contract and taking partial profits [10]. - **Crude Oil**: Price fell sharply. Supply pressure was large, and demand was in the off - season. Suggest holding short positions [10]. - **Styrene**: Price oscillated slightly. Supply - demand improved in the short - term but might weaken later. Expected to oscillate, with upside limited by the import window [10].

Investment Rating - Industry Rating: Recommended [4] Core Views - The report indicates that the recent U.S. non-farm employment data exceeded expectations, which has suppressed interest rate cut expectations for the year, leading to downward pressure on metal prices [3][20] - Precious metals have seen price declines due to weakened rate cut expectations, with COMEX gold down 0.53% to $4,062.80 per ounce and COMEX silver down 1.47% to $49.66 per ounce [30][46] - The overall outlook for precious metals remains cautious, with geopolitical tensions and global debt concerns driving long-term investment in gold [20][49] Summary by Sections Precious Metals - COMEX gold and silver prices have decreased, with significant changes in ETF holdings, indicating a shift in market sentiment [30][46] - The U.S. job market shows mixed signals, complicating the Federal Reserve's decision-making regarding interest rates [3][9] - The report highlights a potential long-term bullish trend for gold due to rising global debt and inflation concerns [20][49] Base Metals - Base metal prices are under pressure due to reduced rate cut expectations, with copper, aluminum, zinc, and lead all experiencing price declines [8][9] - The supply side is facing challenges, with major copper producers reporting production declines due to operational issues [9][12] - Demand for copper is expected to remain tight in the long term, supported by energy transition policies and infrastructure investments [22] Small Metals - The report notes that magnesium prices are under pressure due to rising costs, while demand remains stable [18] - Molybdenum and vanadium prices are weak, reflecting a challenging market environment for these metals [19] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests a focus on gold and silver stocks, highlighting specific companies that may benefit from rising metal prices [20][50] - For base metals, companies involved in copper production are recommended due to expected supply constraints and long-term demand growth [22]

Market Overview - On November 21, the A-share market experienced a significant adjustment, with all three major indices opening lower and closing down. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 2.45% to 3834.89 points, while the ChiNext Index dropped over 4% [2][3] - A total of 5071 stocks declined, with 107 stocks hitting the daily limit down, contrasting sharply with only 33 stocks reaching the limit up [4] Sector Performance - According to the Wind China Industry Index, only the cultural media sector managed a slight increase of 0.1%, while all other sectors showed declines. The fine chemicals, basic metals, and forestry sectors had the largest drops [5] Global Market Context - The global stock markets also faced declines, with the Nikkei 225 index down 2.40%, the KOSPI index down 3.79%, and the Hang Seng Index down over 2% [8] - The pressure on global markets is attributed to the cooling expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in December, following mixed signals from the Fed's recent meeting minutes [9] Long-term Market Outlook - Despite the recent market volatility, analysts believe the foundation of the current slow bull market remains intact. They anticipate that the A-share index has the potential to continue strengthening [12] - The chief economist of Qianhai Kaiyuan Fund, Yang Delong, suggests that the market is likely to transition from a structural bull market to a comprehensive bull market by 2026, which could enhance consumer confidence and drive economic growth [12][13] Investment Strategies - Analysts recommend focusing on three investment themes for the future: technological self-reliance, upgrading industrial foundations, and securing strategic resources [13] - The Chen Guo team from Dongfang Caifu expresses optimism for the Chinese stock market in 2026, highlighting potential areas of outperformance, including corporate earnings and advancements in AI [14]

Report Overview - The report is the "Guotai Junan Futures Commodity Research Morning Report - Precious Metals and Base Metals" dated November 21, 2025, covering gold, silver, copper, zinc, lead, tin, aluminum, alumina, cast aluminum alloy, nickel, and stainless steel [1]. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - Gold: Expectations of interest rate cuts are rising [2]. - Silver: Undergoing a volatile adjustment [2]. - Copper: Risk sentiment remains weak, and prices are oscillating [2]. - Zinc: Subject to macro - level disturbances [2]. - Lead: Reduced inventory restricts price decline [2]. - Tin: Prices are falling from high levels [2]. - Aluminum: Affected by macro - level disturbances [2]. - Alumina: Trading within a range [2]. - Cast aluminum alloy: Following the trend of electrolytic aluminum [2]. - Nickel: Nickel prices have broken through support and are under pressure to move in a volatile manner [2]. - Stainless steel: Weak market realities are suppressing steel prices, but the downside is limited [2]. Summary by Commodity Gold and Silver Gold - **Fundamentals**: The closing price of Shanghai Gold 2512 yesterday was 932.56, with a daily decline of 0.47%. The night - session closing price was 933.90, down 0.66%. SPDR Gold ETF holdings decreased by 4 to 1,039.43. Comex gold inventory (the day before yesterday) decreased by 255,568 to 36,969,176 troy ounces [4]. - **News**: In September, the US non - farm payrolls added 119,000 jobs, far exceeding expectations. The unemployment rate unexpectedly rose to 4.4%, a four - year high [4]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 (neutral) [4]. Silver - **Fundamentals**: The closing price of Shanghai Silver 2512 yesterday was 12,046, down 0.81%. The night - session closing price was 11,967, down 1.34%. SLV Silver ETF holdings (the day before yesterday) increased by 20 to 15,246.63. Comex silver inventory (the day before yesterday) decreased by 3,005,099 to 462,530,023 troy ounces [4]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 (neutral) [4]. Copper - **Fundamentals**: The closing price of Shanghai Copper's main contract yesterday was 86,130, up 0.02%. The night - session closing price was 85,920, down 0.24%. Peru's copper production in September increased by 3.7% year - on - year to 240,995 tons. China's refined copper imports in October decreased by 13.62% month - on - month [8][10]. - **News**: The US non - farm payrolls in September and unemployment rate data had an impact on the market. The Dutch government suspended intervention in Nexperia [8]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 (neutral) [10]. Lead - **Fundamentals**: The closing price of Shanghai Lead's main contract was 17,220, down 0.17%. Shanghai Lead's futures inventory decreased by 650 tons to 30,556 tons [14]. - **News**: Similar to other commodities, affected by US employment data [15]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 (neutral) [15]. Tin - **Fundamentals**: The closing price of Shanghai Tin's main contract was 292,030, down 0.46%. The SMM 1 tin ingot price increased by 1,500 to 282,800 [18]. - **News**: Affected by macro - level news such as US employment and AI - related policies [19]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 (neutral) [20]. Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum Alloy Aluminum - **Fundamentals**: The closing price of Shanghai Aluminum's main contract was 21,530, down 40. The electrolytic aluminum enterprise's profit was 5,489.26, up 24.58 [21]. - **News**: As of the week ending November 15, the number of initial jobless claims decreased, but the number of continued claims reached a new high since October 2021. The Fed's internal hawkish - dovish divergence reappeared [23]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 (neutral) [23]. Alumina - **Fundamentals**: The closing price of Shanghai Alumina's main contract was 2,732, down 8 [21]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 (neutral) [23]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Fundamentals**: The closing price of the aluminum alloy's main contract was 20,780, down 35 [21]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 (neutral) [23]. Nickel and Stainless Steel Nickel - **Fundamentals**: The closing price of Shanghai Nickel's main contract was 115,380, down 270. The 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron (ex - factory price) was 895, down 3 [25]. - **News**: The Indonesian forestry working group took over a nickel mine area, and China suspended a non - official subsidy for imports of copper and nickel from Russia [25][26]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 (neutral) [29]. Stainless Steel - **Fundamentals**: The closing price of the stainless - steel main contract was 12,285, down 50 [25]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 (neutral) [29].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - Gold: Expectations of interest rate cuts are rising [2][4]. - Silver: Reached a new high [2][4]. - Copper: A decrease in LME inventory supports prices [2][8]. - Zinc: Trading within a range [2][11]. - Lead: An increase in domestic inventory is pressuring prices [2][14]. - Tin: Pulled back from high levels [2][17]. - Aluminum: Under short - term pressure [2][23]. - Alumina: Fundamental pressure persists [2][23]. - Cast aluminum alloy: Follows the trend of electrolytic aluminum [2][23]. - Nickel: Nickel prices broke through support levels and are under pressure, moving in a volatile manner [2][26]. - Stainless steel: Weak market realities are suppressing steel prices, but there is limited downside [2][27]. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold and Silver - **Price and Trading Volume**: Yesterday, the closing prices of various gold and silver contracts showed declines, with significant drops in night - trading sessions. Trading volumes and positions of some contracts changed, and ETF holdings also had corresponding adjustments. For example, the closing price of Comex gold 2512 was 4084.40, down 2.16% [4]. - **Inventory**: Inventories of gold and silver in different markets decreased to varying degrees. For instance, Comex silver inventory (in ounces) decreased by 1,876,069 [4]. - **News**: There were important macro and industry news, such as the publication of important articles in Qiushi Journal, the convening of the State Council executive meeting, and the determination of the schedule for important US data releases [4][7]. - **Trend Intensity**: Gold and silver trend intensities are both 1, indicating a relatively positive outlook [6]. Copper - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing prices of copper contracts decreased, and trading volumes and positions also changed. For example, the closing price of the Shanghai copper main contract was 86,900, down 0.74% [8]. - **Inventory**: LME copper inventory decreased by 450 tons, which supported prices [8]. - **News**: There were macro and industry news, including the convening of the State Council executive meeting, the inclusion of copper in the new US critical minerals list, and the reopening of the border between Tanzania and Zambia [8][10]. - **Trend Intensity**: Copper trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [10]. Zinc - **Price and Trading Volume**: Zinc prices decreased, and trading volumes and positions changed. For example, the closing price of the Shanghai zinc main contract was 22425, down 1.39% [11]. - **Inventory**: Shanghai zinc futures inventory decreased by 399 tons, while LME zinc inventory increased by 1175 tons [11]. - **News**: There were news about the schedule of important US data releases and the division within the Federal Reserve regarding interest rate cuts [12]. - **Trend Intensity**: Zinc trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [13]. Lead - **Price and Trading Volume**: Lead prices decreased, and trading volumes and positions changed. For example, the closing price of the Shanghai lead main contract was 17505, down 0.93% [14]. - **Inventory**: Shanghai lead futures inventory increased by 5203 tons, while LME lead inventory decreased by 1500 tons [14]. - **News**: There were news about the convening of the State Council executive meeting and the division within the Federal Reserve regarding interest rate cuts [15]. - **Trend Intensity**: Lead trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [15]. Tin - **Price and Trading Volume**: Tin prices decreased, and trading volumes and positions changed. For example, the closing price of the Shanghai tin main contract was 291,450, down 2.24% [19]. - **Inventory**: Shanghai tin inventory increased by 234 tons, and LME tin inventory increased by 10 tons [19]. - **News**: There were important macro and industry news, such as the publication of important articles in Qiushi Journal, the convening of the State Council executive meeting, and the determination of the schedule for important US data releases [20]. - **Trend Intensity**: Tin trend intensity is 1, indicating a relatively positive outlook [22]. Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Trading Volume**: Aluminum, alumina, and cast aluminum alloy prices showed different degrees of decline, and trading volumes and positions also changed. For example, the closing price of the Shanghai aluminum main contract was 21840, down 210 [23]. - **Inventory**: Domestic aluminum ingot social inventory remained unchanged, LME aluminum ingot inventory decreased by 0.08 million tons [23]. - **News**: There were news about the convening of the State Council executive meeting and the implementation of active fiscal policies [25]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensities of aluminum, alumina, and cast aluminum alloy are all 0, indicating a neutral outlook [25]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Price and Trading Volume**: Nickel and stainless steel prices decreased, and trading volumes and positions changed. For example, the closing price of the Shanghai nickel main contract was 117,080, down 1,850 [27]. - **Industry News**: There were news about the takeover of a nickel mine in Indonesia, the suspension of a non - official subsidy for imported copper and nickel from Russia, and sanctions on mining companies in Indonesia [27][28]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensities of nickel and stainless steel are both 0, indicating a neutral outlook [31].

Core Viewpoint - The report from Dongwu Securities indicates that the A-share market is entering a new bull market, with growth style leading the way and small-cap indices outperforming large-cap indices. A potential shift from "growth to value" is expected around June 2026, influenced by industry trends and liquidity conditions [1][2]. Industry Trends - The absence of blockbuster AI applications in the first half of the year, combined with liquidity pressure from a strengthening dollar in the second half, may lead to a cautious market sentiment and a mid-term adjustment for AI stocks [3]. - The "15th Five-Year Plan" starting in 2026 is expected to reinforce policies centered on technological innovation and modern industrial systems, becoming a focal point for the market in the first half of the year [3]. Market Dynamics - The transition from growth to value style is closely tied to industry and liquidity turning points. A weak dollar trend may attract previously overseas capital back to the domestic market, creating a multiplier effect that supports the economy [2]. - The report anticipates that the dollar may weaken in the first half of 2026, with a potential turning point around June, as global liquidity conditions remain favorable [2]. Profitability Analysis - A rebound in overall revenue and profit growth for A-shares is expected, ending a four-year decline since 2021. This is attributed to improved supply-demand dynamics and the deepening of market reforms [4]. - The stabilization of Return on Equity (ROE) is linked to the rebalancing of supply and demand, with expectations of improved corporate profits as anti-involution policies take effect [4]. Investment Strategy - The investment strategy emphasizes "technology and security" and "reform and growth." Key areas include AI technology, resource security, and sectors benefiting from geopolitical dynamics [5][6]. - The report highlights the importance of focusing on sectors with improving supply-demand structures, such as lithium battery materials and traditional industries with price recovery potential [6][7]. Consumer Trends - There is an increasing necessity for policy support for service consumption and non-durable goods, with a focus on sectors like travel, hospitality, and essential consumer products expected to see improved sentiment in 2026 [7].