2025年10月10日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-贵金属及基本金属 观点与策略 | 黄金：继续创新高 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 白银：冲击50新高 | 2 | | 铜：美元回升，限制价格上涨 | 4 | | 锌：小幅反弹 | 6 | | 铅：库存增加，限制价格回升 | 8 | | 锡：加速上行 | 9 | | 铝：区间震荡 | 11 | | 氧化铝：偏弱运行 | 11 | | 铸造铝合金：跟随电解铝 | 11 | | 镍：冶炼累库与矿端预期博弈，警惕消息扰动 | 13 | | 不锈钢：短线供需与成本博弈，钢价震荡运行 | 13 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 商 品 研 究 2025 年 10 月 10 日 黄金：继续创新高 白银：冲击 50 新高 | 王蓉 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002529 | wangrong013179@gtjas.com | | --- | --- | --- | | 刘雨萱 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020476 | liuyuxuan023982@gtjas.com | 【基本面跟踪 ...

（文章来源：每日经济新闻） 当地时间10月9日，伦敦基本金属全线上涨，LME期锡涨1.16%报36820.00美元/吨，LME期铝涨1.05%报 2782.50美元/吨，LME期铜涨1.01%报10776.50美元/吨，LME期铅涨0.92%报2020.50美元/吨，LME期镍 涨0.91%报15485.00美元/吨，LME期锌涨0.30%报3014.00美元/吨。 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry - wide investment ratings are provided in the report. However, trend intensities are given for each metal: - Gold: Trend intensity of 1, indicating a relatively positive outlook [7]. - Silver: Trend intensity of 1, suggesting a moderately positive view [7]. - Copper: Trend intensity of 2, the strongest positive signal [11]. - Zinc: Trend intensity of 0, indicating a neutral stance [13]. - Lead: Trend intensity of 0, also neutral [17]. - Tin: Trend intensity of 1, a moderately positive outlook [22]. - Aluminum: Trend intensity of 0, neutral [26]. - Alumina: Trend intensity of 0, neutral [26]. - Cast Aluminum Alloy: Trend intensity of 0, neutral [26]. - Nickel: Trend intensity of +1, moderately positive [34]. - Stainless Steel: Trend intensity of +1, moderately positive [34]. 2. Core Views - **Gold**: Expected to continue reaching new highs. The trend intensity of 1 shows a positive but not extremely strong upward trend [2][7]. - **Silver**: Forecasted to experience a period of oscillatory adjustment, with a trend intensity of 1 [2][7]. - **Copper**: Supply disruptions are expected to drive up prices, with a strong positive trend intensity of 2 [2][11]. - **Zinc**: The market has certain support factors, but the trend intensity of 0 indicates a neutral market situation [12][13]. - **Lead**: Lacks clear driving forces, and prices are likely to fluctuate within a range, with a neutral trend intensity of 0 [16][17]. - **Tin**: Prices are expected to move within a specific range, with a moderately positive trend intensity of 1 [19][22]. - **Aluminum**: Maintains a bullish outlook, although the trend intensity is 0, suggesting a more cautious bullish stance [24]. - **Alumina**: There are differences in market views, and the trend intensity of 0 reflects a neutral situation [24]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: Follows the trend of electrolytic aluminum, with a neutral trend intensity of 0 [24]. - **Nickel**: There is a game between smelting inventory accumulation and ore - end expectations, and investors should be vigilant about news - related disturbances, with a moderately positive trend intensity of +1 [28][34]. - **Stainless Steel**: In the short - term, there is a game between supply - demand and cost factors, and steel prices are expected to fluctuate, with a moderately positive trend intensity of +1 [28][34]. 3. Summary by Metal Gold - **Price Performance**: The Shanghai Gold 2510 contract closed at 863.60 with a daily increase of 1.29%, and the night - session price reached 870.42 with a 1.02% increase. Comex Gold 2510 closed at 3862.90 with a 1.93% increase [5]. - **Market News**: Fed minutes suggest that most officials believe continued easing this year may be appropriate, and the US government shutdown continues, among other factors affecting the gold market [5][8]. Silver - **Price Performance**: The Shanghai Silver 2510 contract closed at 10912 with a 3.07% daily increase, and the night - session price was 10907.00 with a 0.66% increase. Comex Silver 2510 closed at 47.110 with a 1.61% increase [5]. - **Market News**: Similar macro - news as gold also impacts the silver market [5][8]. Copper - **Price Performance**: The Shanghai Copper main contract closed at 83,110 with a 0.90% daily increase, and the night - session price reached 83680 with a 0.69% increase. The LME Copper 3M electronic - disk price increased by 3.93% to 10,701 [9]. - **Market News**: Freeport declared force majeure at the Indonesian Grasberg mine, and Chile's copper production in August decreased by 9.9%, among other supply - side factors driving up prices [9][11]. Zinc - **Price Performance**: The Shanghai Zinc main contract closed at 21825 with a 0.11% increase, and the LME Zinc 3M electronic - disk price increased by 1.25% to 3042 [12]. - **Market News**: Fed officials have differences in views on interest - rate cuts, and the government shutdown affects economic data release, which impacts the zinc market [13]. Lead - **Price Performance**: The Shanghai Lead main contract closed at 16940 with a 0.50% increase, and the LME Lead 3M electronic - disk price increased by 0.07% to 2005 [16]. - **Market News**: Fed officials' concerns about inflation and employment, as well as the US government shutdown, are the main influencing factors [17]. Tin - **Price Performance**: The Shanghai Tin main contract closed at 272,410 with a 0.61% decrease, but the night - session price increased by 2.62% to 279,670. The LME Tin 3M electronic - disk price increased by 3.05% to 35,465 [20]. - **Market News**: Global macro - events such as the US government shutdown, Fed policies, and geopolitical situations affect the tin market [20][23]. Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Price Performance**: The Shanghai Aluminum main contract closed at 20680, and the LME Aluminum 3M price was 2687. The Shanghai Alumina main contract closed at 2868, and the cast aluminum alloy main contract closed at 20210 [24]. - **Market News**: The US government shutdown, budget deficits, and other macro - factors impact the market. There are also differences in views on alumina [24][26]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Price Performance**: The Shanghai Nickel main contract closed at 120,900, and the stainless - steel main contract closed at 12,730 [28]. - **Market News**: Indonesian mining policies, production suspensions in some nickel - iron smelting plants, and other factors affect the market. There is a game between smelting inventory and ore - end expectations in the nickel market, and a game between supply - demand and cost in the stainless - steel market [28][30][34].

每经AI快讯，周二(9月30日)，伦敦基本金属收盘涨跌不一，LME期铜跌1.13%报10296美元/吨，月涨 3.98%；LME期锌涨0.54%报2956.5美元/吨，月涨4.88%；LME期镍跌0.35%报15265美元/吨，月跌 1.01%；LME期铝涨0.3%报2687美元/吨，月涨2.73%；LME期锡跌0.25%报35400美元/吨，月涨1.09%； LME期铅跌0.45%报1986美元/吨，月跌0.25%。 ...

2025年09月30日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-贵金属及基本金属 观点与策略 | 黄金：继续创新高 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 白银：震荡调整 | 2 | | 铜：美元回落，推升价格 | 4 | | 锌：小幅反弹 | 6 | | 铅：库存下降，限制价格回落 | 8 | | 锡：区间震荡 | 9 | | 铝：区间震荡 | 11 | | 氧化铝：继续偏弱 | 11 | | 铸造铝合金：跟随电解铝 | 11 | | 镍：冶炼累库与矿端预期博弈，镍价低位震荡 | 13 | | 不锈钢：短线供需与成本博弈，钢价震荡运行 | 13 | 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 品 研 究 期货研究 商 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 商 品 研 究 2025 年 9 月 30 日 黄金：继续创新高 白银：震荡调整 | 王蓉 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002529 | wangrong013179@gtjas.com | | --- | --- | --- | | 刘雨萱 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020476 | liuyuxuan023982@gtjas.com | 【基本面跟踪】 贵金属基本面数 ...

Group 1: Copper Market - Copper prices have shown an upward trend, with domestic copper closing at 81,890 CNY/ton, and the main contract price reaching 82,980 CNY/ton, marking an increase of over 3% [1][2] - The significant price surge on September 24 was triggered by Freeport's update on Grasberg, leading to a broad increase in LME metal futures [1][2] - Despite the bullish market sentiment, the actual demand remains sluggish, with downstream enterprises adopting a wait-and-see approach after the price spike [2] Group 2: Aluminum Market - Aluminum prices have experienced a decline, with domestic aluminum closing at 20,660 CNY/ton [2] - The theoretical operating capacity of the electrolytic aluminum industry has increased due to capacity transfers and resumed operations in various regions [2] - The average price of domestic alumina has decreased to 3,014.75 CNY/ton, down 40.02 CNY/ton from the previous week, indicating a 1.31% drop [2] Group 3: Precious Metals - Gold and silver prices have risen, with domestic gold averaging 837.58 CNY/gram, up 1.00% from the previous week, and silver averaging 10,173 CNY/kg, up 2.09% [3] - The market anticipates a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in October, contributing to the rise in precious metal prices [3] - COMEX silver inventory has increased by 0.35% to 52,715.51 million ounces, while Shanghai Futures Exchange silver delivery inventory has decreased by 4.88% [3] Group 4: Minor Metals - The antimony market continues to show weakness, with prices for various grades of antimony ingots decreasing by 0.3 CNY/ton compared to the previous week [4] - Demand remains lackluster, with downstream inquiries reported as generally weak, and suppliers maintaining cautious pricing strategies [4] - The overall sentiment in the market is subdued, with limited purchasing activity observed ahead of the National Day holiday [4] Group 5: Rare Earths - Prices for rare earths have shown fluctuations, with light rare earth oxide prices decreasing by 1.5% to 562,500 CNY/ton [5] - The integration of separation plants is ongoing, and processing fees have risen above 20,000 CNY, indicating a potential long-term opportunity in the sector [5] - Companies in the magnetic materials sector, such as Ningbo Yunsheng and Zhenghai Magnetic Materials, are recommended for attention due to their strong fundamentals [5]

请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 2025年09月29日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-贵金属及基本金属 观点与策略 | 黄金：继续创新高 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 白银：震荡调整 | 2 | | 铜：美元调整，限制价格回落 | 4 | | 锌：震荡偏弱 | 6 | | 铅：库存持续减少，支撑价格 | 8 | | 锡：区间震荡 | 9 | | 铝：继续磨盘 | 11 | | 氧化铝：重心下移 | 11 | | 铸造铝合金：跟随电解铝 | 11 | | 镍：冶炼累库与矿端预期博弈，镍价低位震荡 | 13 | | 不锈钢：短线供需与成本博弈，钢价震荡运行 | 13 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 商 品 研 究 2025 年 9 月 29 日 黄金：继续创新高 白银：震荡调整 | 王蓉 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002529 | wangrong013179@gtjas.com | | --- | --- | --- | | 刘雨萱 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020476 | liuyuxuan023982@gtjas.com | 【基本面跟踪】 贵金属基本 ...

Core Viewpoint - The London Metal Exchange (LME) experienced mixed performance in base metals on September 25, with some metals declining while others saw slight increases [1] Price Movements - LME nickel decreased by 1.15%, settling at $15,240.00 per ton [1] - LME copper fell by 0.59%, closing at $10,275.50 per ton [1] - LME zinc dropped by 0.53%, ending at $2,922.50 per ton [1] - LME lead increased by 0.48%, reaching $2,009.00 per ton [1] - LME aluminum rose by 0.47%, priced at $2,664.00 per ton [1] - LME tin saw a slight increase of 0.20%, closing at $34,390.00 per ton [1]

Group 1: Commodity Market Overview - The commodity market is experiencing a range-bound fluctuation in Q3 2025, with prices significantly higher than in Q2. Precious metals, particularly gold, have performed exceptionally well, reaching historical highs, while basic metals like copper remain strong. The energy sector, however, is underperforming due to oversupply [1] - Looking ahead to Q4, the absence of recession signs in the US economy and the Federal Reserve's risk management-style interest rate cuts are expected to positively impact commodity price rebounds. Expansionary fiscal policies in the US and Europe are likely to boost overall demand [1] Group 2: Federal Reserve's Interest Rate Decisions - On September 18, the Federal Reserve lowered the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to a target range of 4.00% to 4.25%. This move is characterized as a risk management-style cut, essentially a preventive measure against potential economic downturns [2] - Despite some signs of economic weakening, the US economy has not entered a recession, with retail sales data showing a 0.6% month-on-month increase in August, marking three consecutive months of growth [2] - The Fed's recent statements indicate a more pessimistic view on the labor market, acknowledging a slowdown in job growth and a slight increase in the unemployment rate, while also raising inflation expectations for 2026 [2][5] Group 3: Historical Context of Interest Rate Cuts - Since 1982, the Federal Reserve has undergone seven major interest rate cut cycles, categorized into preventive and recessionary cuts. Typically, preventive cuts benefit precious metals and US equities, while recessionary cuts tend to negatively impact equities but favor gold prices [3] - The price movements of copper and crude oil are significantly influenced by the state of the real economy and demand for these commodities [3] Group 4: Domestic Economic Indicators - Recent macroeconomic data from China indicates a dual weakness in supply and demand, with industrial value-added growth slowing to 5.2% year-on-year in August. Exports also saw a decline, with a -0.4% year-on-year change, marking the first negative growth of the year [7] - Despite the slowdown in traditional industries, high-tech sectors continue to show resilience, with a 9.3% year-on-year growth in high-tech industrial value-added [7] Group 5: Policy Measures and Market Outlook - The frequency of new policy measures in China is increasing, focusing on market reforms, expanding service consumption, and local government debt management. These measures are expected to support growth in Q4 [8] - A potential global shift towards a new phase of monetary easing and fiscal stimulus could benefit commodity prices, although oil and agricultural products may underperform due to supply expansions and tariff impacts [8]

观点与策略 | 黄金：继续创新高 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 白银：震荡调整 | 2 | | 铜：缺乏驱动，价格震荡 | 4 | | 锌：小幅回落 | 6 | | 铅：库存减少，支撑价格 | 8 | | 锡：区间震荡 | 9 | | 铝：区间震荡 | 11 | | 氧化铝：震荡偏弱 | 11 | | 铸造铝合金：跟随电解铝 | 11 | | 镍：冶炼累库与矿端预期博弈，镍价低位震荡 | 13 | | 不锈钢：短线供需与成本博弈，钢价震荡运行 | 13 | 2025年09月24日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-贵金属及基本金属 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 所 商 品 研 究 2025 年 9 月 24 日 黄金：继续创新高 白银：震荡调整 | 王蓉 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002529 | wangrong013179@gtjas.com | | --- | --- | --- | | 刘雨萱 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020476 | liuyuxuan023982@gtjas.com | 资料来源：同花顺，国泰君安期货 【 ...