2026年02月24日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报 观点与策略 | 铜：不确定性增强，价格震荡 | 3 | | --- | --- | | 锌：区间震荡 | 5 | | 铅：供需双弱，区间震荡 | 7 | | 锡：关注关税影响 | 8 | | 铝：节后风偏偏强 | 9 | | 氧化铝：区间震荡 | 9 | | 铸造铝合金：跟随电解铝 | 9 | | 铂：受白银走强提振 | 11 | | 钯：关税扰动再起，震荡偏强 | 11 | | 镍：沪镍投机情绪仍存，持续关注镍矿矛盾 | 13 | | 不锈钢：成本支撑重心上移，淡季累库约束弹性 | 13 | | 碳酸锂：供需偏紧，盘面具备底部支撑 | 15 | | 工业硅：关注上游工厂复产节奏 | 17 | | 多晶硅：硅片价格下跌 | 17 | | 铁矿石：需求预期转弱，震荡下行 | 19 | | 螺纹钢：宽幅震荡 | 20 | | 热轧卷板：宽幅震荡 | 20 | | 硅铁：节前交易情绪转弱，宽幅震荡 | 22 | | 锰硅：节前交易情绪转弱，宽幅震荡 | 22 | | 焦炭：宽幅震荡 | 24 | | 焦煤：宽幅震荡 | 24 | | 原木：低到港低库存，震荡偏强 | ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货铁矿石早报（2026 年 2 月 24 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 期货研究报告 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 铁矿 2605 | 震荡 偏弱 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 关注 MA5 一线压力 | 现实格局不佳，矿价承压走弱 | 假期 SGX 铁矿石掉期走弱，且现货价格同样下行，而铁矿石供需格局表现偏弱，钢厂生产平稳， 矿石终端消耗迎来回升，节前样本钢厂日均铁水产量和进口矿日耗环比增加，但钢厂盈利状况不佳， 且钢市矛盾不断累积，难以承接持续提产，需求增量空间受限，提振效应不强。与此同时，假期国内 港 ...

Group 1: Report Information - The report is the Iron Ore Morning Report released by the Black Team of the Research Center on February 24, 2026 [1][2] Group 2: Spot Market Data - **Price Changes**: The prices of various iron ore varieties have different degrees of daily and weekly changes. For example, the price of the Platts 61 Index is 99.60, with a daily change of -0.35 and a weekly change of -0.70. Newman powder is priced at 748, with a daily change of -11 and a weekly change of -10 [3] - **Import Profits**: Different varieties also have different import profits. For instance, the import profit of Newman powder is 23.12, and that of Macfarlane powder is 45.07 [3] Group 3: Futures Market Data - **Dalian Commodity Exchange**: The latest price of i2701 is 720.0, with a daily change of -13.5 and a weekly change of -12.5. The latest price of i2605 is 746.0, with a daily change of -16.0 and a weekly change of -14.5. The latest price of i2609 is 730.5, with a daily change of -14.5 and a weekly change of -12.0 [3] - **Singapore Exchange**: The latest price of FE01 is 97.07, with a daily change of -0.30 and a weekly change of -1.10. The latest price of FE05 is 99.28, with a daily change of -0.42 and a weekly change of -1.07. The latest price of FE09 is 98.27, with a daily change of -0.27 and a weekly change of -1.16 [3] Group 4: Basis and Spread Data - **Basis**: The basis of i2701 is 65.5, with a daily change of 4.1 and a weekly change of 3.9. The basis of i2605 is 39.5, with a daily change of 6.6 and a weekly change of 5.9. The basis of i2609 is 55.0, with a daily change of 5.1 and a weekly change of 3.4 [3] - **Spread**: The monthly spread of i2701 is 10.5, that of i2605 is -26.0, and that of i2609 is 15.5 [3]

01 周度评估及策略推荐 04 供给端 02 期现市场 05 需求端 万林新（联系人） 0755-23375162 wanlx@wkqh.cn 交易咨询号：Z0020771 发运扰动影响消除，关注节后需求 及政策指引 铁矿石周报 从业资格号：F03133967 2026/02/23 陈张滢（黑色建材组） 从业资格号：F03098415 CONTENTS 目录 03 库存 06 基差 01 周度评估及策略推荐 黑色产业链示意图 周度要点小结 ◆ 供应：2026年2月16日-2月22日全球铁矿石发运总量3320.9万吨，环比2月9日-2月15日增加631.0万吨。澳洲巴西铁矿发运总量2713.3万吨， 环比增加598.4万吨。澳洲发运量2010.8万吨，环比增加540.2万吨，其中澳洲发往中国的量1709.1万吨，环比增加394.9万吨。巴西发运量 702.5万吨，环比增加58.2万吨。中国47港到港总量2455.6万吨，环比减少213.6万吨；中国45港到港总量2361.3万吨，环比减少123.4万吨。 ◆ 需求：2026年2月16日-2月22日中国47港到港总量2321.1万吨，环比减少174.6万吨；中国4 ...

Market Overview - Major U.S. stock index futures are showing slight declines, with Dow futures down 0.12%, S&P 500 futures down 0.08%, and Nasdaq futures down 0.04% [1] Semiconductor Sector - Storage chip stocks are experiencing a pre-market rally, with SanDisk and Micron Technology both rising over 1% [2] Nvidia Developments - Nvidia's CEO Jensen Huang announced that the company has prepared several unprecedented new chips for GTC 2026, emphasizing the challenges of technological limits but expressing confidence in their engineering team [2] - Nvidia has sold its remaining 1.1 million shares of Arm Holdings, valued at approximately $156 million, while still holding a 20-year technology license from Arm [2][4] Meta Platforms - Meta has restarted its "Malibu 2" smartwatch project, which is expected to launch in 2026 with health tracking features and an integrated Meta AI assistant [2] OpenAI Financing - OpenAI is nearing the completion of a new funding round expected to exceed $100 billion, with a projected overall valuation surpassing $850 billion, up from an initial estimate of $830 billion [3] - The pre-funding valuation is expected to remain at $730 billion, with major strategic investors including Amazon, SoftBank, Nvidia, and Microsoft [3] Mining Sector - Rio Tinto's 2025 earnings report showed a basic profit of $10.87 billion, which is flat year-over-year but slightly below market expectations of $11.03 billion, leading to a decline of over 2% in its stock [3] eBay Performance - eBay's Q4 2025 earnings exceeded expectations, reporting revenue of $3 billion, a 15% year-over-year increase, and an adjusted EPS of $1.41, surpassing the anticipated $1.35 [4] - The company also announced the acquisition of the fashion marketplace Depop from Etsy for $1.2 billion [4] Silver Stocks - Silver stocks are showing strength, with Pan American Silver up over 4% and Hecla Mining rising nearly 2% [5] Google and Sea Partnership - Google and Sea have announced a strategic partnership to develop AI tools for Sea's e-commerce and gaming products, including exploring AI Agent shopping prototypes for Shopee [5]

Core Insights - The global iron ore trade is undergoing a significant transformation in 2025, primarily driven by Russia's entry into the market with 29 billion tons of iron ore reserves and over 55% high-grade iron resources, which is expected to disrupt the industry landscape [1] - The cost advantage of Russian iron ore, which is 15-20 yuan lower per ton compared to Australian ore, could lead to substantial savings for China, potentially amounting to 15 billion yuan annually based on its steel production volume [1] Group 1 - The logistics infrastructure between China and Russia is improving, with a significant increase in iron ore transport through key ports like Tongjiang and Suifenhe, establishing a reliable "steel corridor" for consistent supply to the Chinese market [3] - In the China-Russia iron ore trade, the proportion of transactions settled in RMB has reached 45%, increasing by 28 percentage points in just two years, challenging the dollar-dominated pricing system [5] - Brazil's Vale is expanding its annual transport capacity by 350 million tons, while countries like South Africa and India are accelerating their RMB settlement trials, indicating a shift in global trade dynamics [5] Group 2 - The global iron ore market is witnessing a shift in power dynamics, with a new order characterized by diversity, resilience, and RMB settlement emerging, suggesting a more complex future for iron ore trade [6]

瑞达期货研究院 「2026.2.13」 铁矿石市场周报 供应宽松+信心不足 铁矿期价重心下移 研究员：蔡跃辉 添加客服 期货从业资格号F0251444 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0013101 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 业务咨询 目录 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 4、期权市场 「周度要点小结1」 行情回顾 万吨。澳洲巴西铁矿发运总量1948.9万吨，环比减少572.1万吨。 3 来源：瑞达期货研究院 「 期现市场情况」 本周期货价格震荡下行 图1、铁矿石主力合约收盘及持仓量 1. 价格：截至2月13日收盘，铁矿主力合约期价为746（-14.5）元/吨，青岛港60.8%PB粉矿803（-12）元/干吨。 2. 发运：全球铁矿石发运总量环比-559.3万吨。2026年2月2日-2月8日Mysteel全球铁矿石发运总量2535.3万吨，环比减少559.3 3. 到港：本期47港到港量-213.6万吨。2026年02月02日-02月08日中国47港到港总量2455.6万吨，环比减少213.6万吨；中国45港 到港总量2361.3万吨，环 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - No clear core view presented in the given content 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs Futures Market Data - DCE01 remained unchanged at 733.5, DCE05 decreased by 0.5 to 762.0, and DCE09 remained at 745.0 [2] - The spread I01 - I05 increased by 0.5 to -28.5, I05 - I09 decreased by 0.5 to 17.0, and I09 - I01 remained at 11.5 [2] Spot Market Data - Prices of most iron ore spot varieties remained stable, with some minor changes like FMG increasing by 1, SP10 increasing by 4, and Ukrainian concentrate increasing by 8 [2] - The optimal deliverable was BRBF(63%) with a price of 803, 01 - contract basis of 62, 05 - contract basis of 33, and 09 - contract basis of 50 [2] Spot Variety Spread and Import Profit - Some spreads remained stable (e.g., Carajás - PB powder at 97), while others changed slightly (e.g., Newman lump - Newman powder increased by 2) [2] - Import profits also had minor changes: Carajás increased by 1 to 0, Newman powder decreased by 1 to 48, etc. [2] Index Data - The Platts 61% iron ore price decreased by 0.3 to 100.0, 65% remained at 116.5, and 58% decreased by 0.3 to 92.0 [2] - The SGX - DCE spreads remained mostly unchanged (e.g., SGX main - DCE01 at 4.1) [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - **For螺纹、热卷**: The market is in the off - season of consumption, with low output and demand. Inventory is expected to increase rapidly from a low level, and the market's demand expectation for next year is relatively weak. The futures price has fallen below the recent trading range, showing a downward trend. However, due to the low current valuation, the downside space is limited [2]. - **For铁矿石**: The market is still in the off - season, and the iron - making water production is likely to decline along the seasonal trend. The steel and iron - making water production is at a seasonal low, and the steel mill restocking is nearly over. The market focuses more on the spring consumption demand. The global shipment has rebounded from a low level, but is expected to remain low in the short term due to seasonal factors in the Southern Hemisphere. The arrival volume has decreased, and the port inventory has reached a record high. The futures price is under pressure to decline [4]. 3. Summary by Directory **I. 螺纹、热卷** - **Supply and Demand**: Last week, the production of rebar from 247 sample steel mills decreased slightly, the apparent demand declined month - on - month, and the total inventory continued to rise. The total production of the five major varieties decreased slightly, the inventory continued to increase, and the apparent demand declined month - on - month [2]. - **Technical Analysis**: The futures price has fallen below the recent trading range and is approaching the previous low, with potential support. But it is considered to be in a downward trend without a reversal signal [2]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Maintain a wait - and - see attitude and do not recommend chasing short positions [2]. **II. 铁矿石** - **Demand**: The production of rebar from 247 sample steel mills decreased slightly last week, the apparent demand declined month - on - month, and the total inventory continued to rise. The iron - making water production is likely to decline seasonally. The steel and iron - making water production is at a seasonal low, and the steel mill restocking is nearly over. The market focuses on spring consumption demand [4]. - **Supply**: Global shipments have rebounded from a low level but are expected to remain low in the short term due to seasonal factors in the Southern Hemisphere. The arrival volume has decreased, and the port inventory has reached a record high [4]. - **Technical Analysis**: The futures price is under pressure to decline, and on the daily K - line, the price has fallen below the 60 - day moving average and the lower Bollinger Band, potentially forming a downward effective breakout [4]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Hold short positions with a light position [4]. **III. Industry News** - As of the week ending February 11, according to data from Zhaogang.com, the production of key steel products in China decreased by 429,100 tons compared with the previous week, the factory inventory increased by 266,200 tons, the social inventory increased by 533,100 tons, the total inventory increased by 799,300 tons, and the apparent demand decreased by 635,300 tons [6]. - On February 11, Mongolia's ETT Company conducted an online auction of coking coal. The starting price of 1/3 coking raw coal was $89.6 per ton, and all 64,000 tons were sold at a price of $95.1 per ton (ex - tax) [6].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Views - **Steel**: Before the Spring Festival, terminal demand for steel shrinks, trading is lackluster, inventory accumulation of rebar accelerates year - on - year, and hot - rolled coil shifts from inventory reduction to accumulation. The fundamentals are weakening. Blast furnace profits are stable, leading to stable output, while EAF output is likely to significantly reduce. Supply is relatively stronger than demand, and falling raw material prices further suppress the market, though cost and policy provide support at the bottom [3]. - **Iron Ore**: On the supply side, overseas shipments of iron ore decline seasonally, and the rainy season in the Southern Hemisphere may affect Australian ore shipments. On the demand side, steel mills' restocking is nearly complete, hot - metal production is expected to rise, but it's the off - season for terminal consumption. Port inventories are accumulating above the seasonal norm, with high inventory pressure, and reduced market risk appetite is suppressing prices [23]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Before the festival, domestic coking coal mines reduce production, leading to a seasonal contraction in coking coal supply. Imported coal arrivals are at a low level, and there is an inverted price difference between domestic and international markets. The first round of coke price increase has been implemented, improving coking profits. Coke production is expected to pick up, and steel mills'复产 is leading to a slow increase in demand. In the short term, the supply - demand pattern is loose, and the post - festival resumption of production rhythm is the key factor to watch [34]. - **Ferroalloys**: Both silicon manganese and silicon iron face a game between cost support and downstream terminal inventory accumulation. Manganese ore prices are firm, providing bottom - line support. Ferroalloy profits have rebounded but are still in the red, and production remains low. Steel mills'复产 may drive demand, but the off - season for downstream steel consumption limits demand growth. Silicon manganese has a large inventory base and high de - stocking pressure, while the fundamentals of silicon iron are slightly better [48]. - **Soda Ash**: The rigid demand for soda ash is expected to weaken, and its price is oscillating weakly, with industrial contradictions still accumulating. If the futures price rises, there is some restocking space for mid - stream players such as futures - cash arbitrageurs, but the demand elasticity is limited. The downward price space needs to be opened up by inventory accumulation. In terms of supply - demand, with the release of new production capacities, daily soda ash output is at a high level, and the medium - to - long - term supply is expected to remain high. The inventory of the photovoltaic glass industry is at a high level, daily melting is temporarily stable, and overall rigid demand is weakening. The heavy - soda balance remains in surplus. Soda ash exports remain high, alleviating domestic pressure to some extent [67]. - **Glass**: Market news indicates that due to environmental protection pressure, four coal - fired production lines in Shahe may be cold - repaired before the Spring Festival, with a total daily melting capacity of 2,700 tons. Coupled with the 1,200 - ton cold - repair of Dongtai Zhongbo last week and the expected 1,000 - ton cold - repair of Deyang Xinyi before the Spring Festival, float glass will experience concentrated cold - repair before the Spring Festival, which is slightly beyond expectations. The daily melting capacity will drop to around 146,000 - 147,000 tons. Although there are many new production lines to be ignited in Shahe, the earliest they can be implemented is after the Spring Festival, and it will take months to produce products. The pre - festival concentrated cold - repair helps relieve the inventory and spot pressure after the Spring Festival. Float glass is in a pattern of weak supply and demand, and the high inventory in the middle - stream is a risk point. If a negative feedback occurs, the spot pressure will be large [91]. Summary by Related Categories Steel - **Price Data**: On February 11, 2026, the closing price of rebar 01 contract was 3132 yuan/ton, 05 contract was 3054 yuan/ton, and 10 contract was 3103 yuan/ton. The closing price of hot - rolled coil 01 contract was 3273 yuan/ton, 05 contract was 3228 yuan/ton, and 10 contract was 3247 yuan/ton. The rebar and hot - rolled coil spot prices in various regions remained stable compared to the previous day [4][9][12]. - **Ratio and Spread Data**: The 01 rebar/01 iron ore ratio was 4, and the 01 rebar/01 coke ratio was 2. The 01 - 05 month spread of rebar was 78, and that of hot - rolled coil was 45 [4][20]. Iron Ore - **Price Data**: On February 11, 2026, the closing price of iron ore 01 contract was 733.5 yuan/ton, 05 contract was 762.5 yuan/ton, and 09 contract was 745 yuan/ton. The 01 basis was 31 yuan/ton, 05 basis was 1.5 yuan/ton, and 09 basis was 19 yuan/ton [24]. - **Fundamental Data**: As of February 6, 2026, the daily average hot - metal output was 228.58 tons, the port desilting volume of 45 ports was 341.08 tons, the apparent demand of five major steel products was 761 tons, the global shipment volume was 2535.3 tons, the Australia - Brazil shipment volume was 1881.1 tons, the arrival volume at 45 ports was 2361.3 tons, the inventory at 45 ports was 17140.71 tons, the inventory of 247 steel mills was 10316.64 tons, and the available days for 247 steel mills were 36.55 days [28]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Price and Spread Data**: On February 11, 2026, the 09 - 01 spread of coking coal was - 173.5, the 05 - 09 spread was - 80, and the 01 - 05 spread was 253.5. The 09 - 01 spread of coke was - 90, the 05 - 09 spread was - 75, and the 01 - 05 spread was 165. The spot prices of coking coal and coke in various regions showed different degrees of change compared to the previous day and the previous week [35][37][38]. - **Profit Data**: The on - disk coking profit was - 37 yuan/ton, the main ore - coke ratio was 0.457, the main rebar - coke ratio was 1.832, and the main coke - coal ratio was 1.474 [37]. Ferroalloys - **Silicon Iron**: On February 10, 2026, the silicon iron basis in Ningxia was 40, the 01 - 05 spread was 144, the 05 - 09 spread was - 60, and the 09 - 01 spread was - 84. The spot prices in different regions showed a slight decline compared to the previous week [49]. - **Silicon Manganese**: On February 11, 2026, the silicon manganese basis in Inner Mongolia was 176, the 01 - 05 spread was 104, the 05 - 09 spread was - 42, and the 09 - 01 spread was - 62. The spot prices in various regions remained stable [50][52]. Soda Ash - **Price and Spread Data**: On February 11, 2026, the closing price of soda ash 05 contract was 1178 yuan/ton, 09 contract was 1240 yuan/ton, and 01 contract was 1288 yuan/ton. The 5 - 9 month spread was - 62, the 9 - 1 month spread was - 48, and the 1 - 5 month spread was 110. The spot prices of heavy and light soda ash in various regions remained stable [68]. - **Production and Inventory Data**: The daily production of soda ash is at a high level, the inventory of the photovoltaic glass industry is at a high level, and the rigid demand is weakening. Soda ash exports remain high [67]. Glass - **Price and Spread Data**: On February 11, 2026, the closing price of glass 05 contract was 1087 yuan/ton, 09 contract was 1189 yuan/ton, and 01 contract was 1226 yuan/ton. The 5 - 9 month spread was - 102, the 9 - 1 month spread was - 37, and the 1 - 5 month spread was 139 [92]. - **Production and Sales Data**: The daily production and sales data of glass in Shahe, Hubei, East China, and South China regions showed fluctuations in the recent period [92].