Group 1: Market Overview - The domestic commodity futures market experienced increased volatility, with lithium carbonate main contract closing at 81,000 yuan/ton, hitting the daily limit [1] - The mining activities in the Jiangxi Yichun area have been fully suspended, which accounts for approximately 12.5% of the domestic lithium carbonate monthly output [1] - The main contract for polysilicon closed at 52,985 yuan/ton, with a rise of 6.34%, driven by sustained demand in the new energy sector [1] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Industrial silicon, linked to the new energy supply chain, saw a price increase to 9,000 yuan/ton, up by 4.83%, influenced by rising prices of related products and expectations of supply constraints due to environmental policies [1] - The short-term outlook for the soda ash industry indicates a clear downward trend in spot prices due to overcapacity and slow demand transformation [4] - The polyester industry chain is facing profit imbalances, with PX maintaining high profits while PTA and terminal polyester profits are at low points [5] Group 3: External Influences - The crude oil market is under pressure, with the main contract falling to 489.4 yuan/barrel, down by 1.41%, due to OPEC+ production increases and expectations of a ceasefire agreement between the US and Russia regarding Ukraine [1] - The short-term market trends will be influenced by sudden disruptions in resource supply and long-term policy framework adjustments, alongside weather changes and trade policy adjustments affecting agricultural products [3]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The current ethylene glycol market is in a game between weak reality and strong cost. The rapid increase in port inventories and the lack of improvement in downstream demand continue to suppress the upside price space, while the widespread deep losses in production processes increase the resistance to further price declines. In the short term, the market may continue to fluctuate at a low level. Attention should be paid to the marginal impact of device maintenance dynamics caused by low valuations and the polyester peak - season expectations on market sentiment. If port destocking continues to fall short of expectations, there is a possibility of the price breaking through the cost support downward [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Market Summary - **Futures and Basis**: The price of the main ethylene glycol futures contract dropped slightly for two consecutive days, reaching 4,422 yuan/ton on the 8th, a decrease of 8 yuan/ton or 0.18% from the previous day. The East China spot price also weakened, reaching 4,455 yuan/ton, with a daily decline of 10 yuan/ton. The basis widened by 8 yuan/ton to 48 yuan/ton, indicating that the spot market has relatively stronger support for futures, but the absolute price is still under pressure. The 1 - 5 spread further widened to - 45 yuan/ton, suggesting a pessimistic medium - to - short - term supply - demand outlook [2]. - **Position and Trading Volume**: The trading volume and open interest of the main contract significantly shrank. On the 8th, the trading volume decreased by 36,000 lots to 80,700 lots, a decline of 30.99%, and the open interest decreased by 11,500 lots to 205,300 lots, indicating obvious signs of capital withdrawal and a shift in market trading sentiment towards caution [2]. - **Supply**: The overall ethylene glycol operating rate remained stable at 62.3%, with the operating loads of oil - based (66.15%), coal - based (56.45%), and methanol - based (62.43%) plants remaining unchanged. All production processes continued to operate at a loss, with coal - based profits remaining at - 234 yuan/ton, and losses of 88.51 US dollars/ton, 703.99 yuan/ton, and 1,165.23 yuan/ton for naphtha - based, ethylene - based, and methanol - based processes respectively. Cost pressure limited supply elasticity [3]. - **Demand**: The polyester factory load remained stable at 89.42%, and the Jiangsu and Zhejiang loom load remained at 63.43%. There was no increase in terminal textile demand, and combined with the seasonal weakening of foreign trade orders, downstream procurement willingness for ethylene glycol was mainly rigid, making it difficult to drive inventory digestion [3]. - **Inventory**: The inventory at the East China main port climbed to 485,700 tons, a significant weekly increase of 59,000 tons. Among them, the inventory in Zhangjiagang increased by 40.6% (52,000 tons), highlighting the port inventory accumulation pressure. Although the arrival volume decreased by 67,000 tons to 101,700 tons compared to the previous period, the slowdown in port shipments led to an unexpected inventory accumulation speed, and the supply - demand contradiction continued to accumulate [3]. 3.2 Industrial Chain Price Monitoring - **Futures and Spot Prices**: The main ethylene glycol futures contract price decreased from 4,430 yuan/ton on the 7th to 4,422 yuan/ton on the 8th, a decrease of 8 yuan/ton or 0.18%. The East China spot price decreased from 4,465 yuan/ton to 4,455 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton or 0.22% [2][5]. - **Spreads**: The basis widened by 8 yuan/ton to 48 yuan/ton, and the 1 - 5 spread further widened to - 45 yuan/ton [2][5]. - **Operating Rates**: The overall ethylene glycol operating rate, coal - based, oil - based, polyester factory, Jiangsu and Zhejiang loom, ethylene - based, and methanol - based operating rates all remained unchanged [3][5]. - **Inventory and Arrival Volume**: The East China main port inventory increased by 59,000 tons to 485,700 tons, a weekly increase of 13.69%. The Zhangjiagang inventory increased by 52,000 tons to 180,000 tons, an increase of 40.62%. The arrival volume decreased by 67,000 tons to 101,700 tons, a decrease of 39.72% [3][5]. 3.3 Industry Dynamics and Interpretation - On August 8, the focus of the East China US dollar market remained stagnant, with near - month cargoes negotiated in the range of 522 - 525 US dollars/ton, and no transactions were reported [6]. - On August 8, the spot price of the ethylene glycol market in Shaanxi remained stable, with the market average price around 4,000 yuan/ton for self - pick - up [6]. - On August 8, the mainstream market adjusted downward, the quotes of holders in the South China market were lowered, and the market trading atmosphere was cold, with the current price around 4,500 yuan/ton for delivery [6]. - On August 8, the meeting between the US and Russia made progress, international oil prices continued to decline, ethylene glycol supply gradually returned, market sentiment turned bearish, and the market price adjusted downward, with the current East China price negotiated around 4,455 yuan/ton [6]. 3.4 Industrial Chain Data Charts The report includes charts on the closing price and basis of the ethylene glycol main contract, ethylene glycol production profit, domestic ethylene glycol plant operating rate, downstream polyester plant operating rate, ethylene glycol inventory statistics at the East China main port (weekly), and total ethylene glycol industry inventory [7][9][11][14][16][18].

M E G 日期 东北亚乙烯 MEG外盘 价格 MEG内盘 价格 MEG华东 价格 MEG远月 价格 MEG煤制 利润 MEG内盘现金 流（乙烯） MEG总负 荷 煤制MEG 负荷 MEG港口 库存 非煤制负荷 2025/08/04 820 522 4455 4470 4455 481 -587 68.6 75.7 51.6 65 2025/08/05 820 523 4463 4478 4463 489 -578 68.6 75.7 51.6 65 2025/08/06 820 527 4491 4506 4489 517 -552 68.6 75.7 51.6 65 2025/08/07 820 525 4486 4500 4482 512 -554 68.6 75.7 51.6 65 2025/08/08 820 522 4465 4480 4465 429 -577 68.6 75.7 51.6 65 变化 0 -3 -21 -20 -17.00 -82.60 -23 0 0 0 0 MEG现货成交 基差对09（+77）附近。 MEG装置变化 内蒙通辽30万吨重启；山西沃能30万吨检修。 周度观点 近 ...

Group 1 - The A-share market experienced a rebound driven by trading funds, with a notable increase in volatility expectations and a return to a "dumbbell" style focusing on dividends and small-cap stocks [1][2] - The margin trading balance reached a nearly 10-year high of 2 trillion yuan, indicating significant liquidity support for the market [2][3] - The number of public fund reports has shown signs of recovery, suggesting a potential shift of household savings into equity funds [2][3] Group 2 - The "anti-involution" policy is beginning to show results, with July's PPI year-on-year expected to rebound from its low point, although the extent of recovery will depend on policy effectiveness [3][4] - The macroeconomic indicators, such as improved profit margins for industrial enterprises and reduced accounts receivable turnover days, reflect positive impacts from the "anti-involution" measures [3][4] - Certain sectors, including wind power, automotive, logistics, and aquaculture, are experiencing a recovery in sentiment, indicating a broader improvement in economic conditions [3][4] Group 3 - External risks remain, particularly regarding tariff policies and Federal Reserve monetary policy, which could affect market sentiment and investment strategies [4][5] - The market is approaching a period of concentrated interim report disclosures, which may lead to increased volatility, but the downside risk is considered limited [5][6] - Tactical investment strategies are recommended to focus on sectors with improving sentiment and potential for rebound, such as storage, software, and certain chemical products [5][6]

1. PVC and Caustic Soda Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View - Caustic soda market is in the off - season, with production increasing month - on - month and spot prices generally stable with a weakening trend. There is an expected increase in supply in August, but potential supply reduction in late August may support prices. The overall expectation is neutral to weak [2]. - PVC prices are expected to continue to face pressure, with increasing inventory and limited improvement in demand. New capacity releases will add pressure to the supply side, and the downstream shows no sign of improvement [2]. Summaries by Directory - **Prices**: Shandong 32% liquid caustic soda's folded - 100% price dropped by 2.4%, and Shandong 50% liquid caustic soda's folded - 100% price dropped by 0.8%. The price of East China calcium carbide - based PVC decreased by 0.2%, and the price of ethylene - based PVC remained unchanged. Futures prices also showed a downward trend [2]. - **Supply**: The caustic soda industry's operating rate increased by 1.7%, and the PVC industry's operating rate decreased by 3.4%. The profit of externally - purchased calcium carbide - based PVC increased by 12.3%, while the profit of northwest integrated production decreased by 2.2% [2]. - **Demand**: The operating rate of the caustic soda downstream alumina industry decreased by 4.1%, and the operating rate of PVC downstream products showed mixed trends. The pre - sales volume of PVC increased by 7.3% [2]. - **Inventory**: Liquid caustic soda's factory and warehouse inventories decreased, while PVC's total social inventory increased by 4.9% [2]. 2. Pure Benzene and Styrene Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View - The supply - demand situation of pure benzene is expected to improve in the third quarter, and its price is slightly strong, but the rebound space is limited. The supply - demand of styrene is still weak, but short - term price support comes from the improvement of the domestic commodity atmosphere and the relatively strong pure benzene [5]. Summaries by Directory - **Prices**: Brent crude oil (October) dropped by 0.7%, and CFR Japan naphtha decreased by 1.9%. The price of pure benzene in East China increased by 1.2%, and the price of styrene in East China increased by 0.1% [5]. - **Inventory**: Pure benzene's Jiangsu port inventory decreased by 4.1%, and styrene's Jiangsu port inventory decreased by 3.0% [5]. - **Operating Rate**: The Asian pure benzene operating rate decreased by 0.5%, and the domestic pure benzene operating rate increased by 2.6%. The operating rates of downstream products showed mixed trends [5]. 3. Polyester Industry Chain Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View - The supply of PX is expected to weaken marginally in August, with limited upward and downward space. PTA's short - term price has some support, but the medium - term supply - demand is expected to be weak. Ethylene glycol's supply is turning loose, and short - term prices are boosted by the commodity market. Short - fiber's supply - demand pattern is weak, and bottle - chip's processing fee has limited upward space [8]. Summaries by Directory - **Prices**: Brent crude oil (October) dropped by 0.7%, and CFR Japan naphtha decreased by 1.9%. Most polyester product prices showed a downward trend [8]. - **Supply and Demand**: PX's supply is stable, and PTA's supply and demand are expected to improve in the short term but weaken in the medium term. Ethylene glycol's supply is increasing, and short - fiber's supply - demand is weak. Bottle - chip's demand is not strong [8]. - **Operating Rate**: The operating rates of various products in the polyester industry chain showed different degrees of decline [8]. 4. Polyolefins Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View - In August, the supply pressure of PP and PE increases, and the downstream operating rate is at a low level. However, as the season turns to the peak season, there are potential restocking conditions. The overall valuation is moderately high, and the fundamental contradiction is not significant [11]. Summaries by Directory - **Prices**: The futures prices of LLDPE and PP showed a downward trend, and the spot prices of some products also decreased slightly [11]. - **Supply and Demand**: The supply of PP and PE is increasing, and the downstream demand is weak, but there is potential for restocking [11]. - **Inventory**: The enterprise and social inventories of PE and PP are increasing [11]. 5. Methanol Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View - The inland methanol production is at a high level, and the port inventory has increased significantly this week. The downstream demand is weak due to low profits, and the 09 contract has a strong expectation of inventory accumulation. The 01 contract may benefit from the seasonal peak season and potential production cuts in Iran [14]. Summaries by Directory - **Prices**: The futures prices of methanol decreased slightly, and the spot prices showed different trends in different regions [14]. - **Inventory**: The enterprise inventory of methanol decreased by 9.5%, and the port inventory increased by 14.48% [14]. - **Operating Rate**: The domestic upstream operating rate increased by 2.28%, and the operating rates of some downstream products showed different trends [14]. 6. Crude Oil Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View - Recently, oil prices have been weak due to the reduction of geopolitical risk premiums and the expectation of loose supply. Although there is some demand support, the overall situation still puts pressure on the market. It is recommended to adopt a band - trading strategy [17]. Summaries by Directory - **Prices**: Brent crude oil dropped by 0.69%, and WTI crude oil decreased by 0.06%. The prices of refined oil products also showed a downward trend [17]. - **Supply and Demand**: OPEC+ plans to increase production in September, but the decline in US EIA crude oil inventory and refinery processing increases show some demand support [17]. 7. Urea Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View - The main logic of the urea market this month is the Indian tender news. After the news was realized, the market gave back its gains due to lower - than - expected volume. The supply remains high, and the demand from the agricultural sector weakens. The export has limited support for the market, and the price returns to the oscillation range [22]. Summaries by Directory - **Prices**: The futures prices of urea showed a downward trend, and the spot prices in different regions also decreased slightly [21]. - **Supply and Demand**: The daily and weekly production of urea increased, and the operating rate of production enterprises also increased. The domestic urea inventory showed different trends [21][24].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The cost - end oil market will shift from strong to weak in the second half of the year, unless the US increases sanctions on Russia. PX supply is expected to increase, and the balance sheet will change from de - stocking to balance. PTA is expected to continue a slight inventory build - up in August. The polyester load is currently firm, but the terminal demand has not improved significantly and awaits the arrival of the seasonal peak season [2][3] - For trading strategies, it is recommended to maintain a neutral stance on PX/PTA/PF/PR, pay attention to the cost - end crude oil and macro - sentiment changes. Consider shorting the PTA processing fee at high levels and going long on the PR processing fee at low levels. Also, conduct reverse arbitrage on PTA2509 - 2601 and PF2509 - 2511 [4] 3. Summary According to the Directory Price and Basis - The TA main - contract spot basis is - 20 yuan/ton (with a month - on - month change of +1 yuan/ton), and the PTA spot processing fee is 137 yuan/ton (with a month - on - month change of +35 yuan/ton), and the main - contract disk processing fee is 375 yuan/ton (with a month - on - month change of +0 yuan/ton) [2] Upstream Profits and Spreads - The PXN was 263 US dollars/ton (with a month - on - month change of +7.50 US dollars/ton) the day before last. The PTA spot processing fee is 137 yuan/ton (with a month - on - month change of +35 yuan/ton), and the main - contract disk processing fee is 375 yuan/ton (with a month - on - month change of +0 yuan/ton) [2] International Spreads and Import - Export Profits - Not elaborated in the text Upstream PX and PTA Start - up - The domestic PX load will gradually recover, and with the commissioning of MX, the supply is abundant. The PTA load situation in China, South Korea, and Taiwan is presented in relevant figures, but specific data are not described in the text [2][34] Social Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - PTA is expected to continue a slight inventory build - up in August, and the concentrated cancellation of warehouse receipts will lead to abundant liquid supply [2] Downstream Polyester Load - As of Thursday this week, the polyester load in the Chinese mainland region is around 88.8%. The polyester start - up rate is 88.1% (with a month - on - month decrease of 0.6%). The terminal weaving concentrated on raw - material replenishment in late July, and the filament inventory pressure decreased significantly. The filament and staple - fiber loads rebounded slightly, and the polyester load remains firm in the short term [1][3] PF Detailed Data - The PF spot production profit is 91 yuan/ton (with a month - on - month increase of 12 yuan/ton). The PF demand - side orders are weak, the inventory remains high, and the willingness to hold positions is low under the drag of downstream production cuts [3] PR Fundamental Detailed Data - The PR bottle - chip spot processing fee is 410 yuan/ton (with a month - on - month change of - 32 yuan/ton). After the implementation of the maintenance plans of several major manufacturers, it is expected that the load will remain stable in the short term, and the bottle - chip spot processing fee is expected to return to the range of 300 - 500 yuan/ton for oscillation after repair [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report did not explicitly mention an overall industry investment rating. However, based on the mid - term outlook for each variety, most are rated as "oscillating", indicating that the industry is expected to have price fluctuations within a certain range in the future 2 - 12 weeks [276]. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The energy and chemical industry as a whole continues to show an oscillating and consolidating pattern, with an unclear trend. The prices of most varieties are affected by factors such as geopolitical situations, supply - demand relationships, and cost changes. For example, the expectation of Russia - US negotiations has alleviated geopolitical premiums, and the supply and demand of various products have different impacts on prices [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Views 3.1.1 Crude Oil - **Viewpoint**: Geopolitical expectations are fluctuating, and attention should be paid to the risk of Russian oil. - **Main Logic**: The expectation of Russia - US negotiations has led to a moderation of geopolitical premiums. Although the high operation of Chinese and American refineries currently supports demand, the pressure on refined oil inventories is expected to reappear, and OPEC + supply is in an accelerated release period. - **Outlook**: Short - term oscillation, focusing on the implementation of US sanctions against Russia [8]. 3.1.2 Asphalt - **Viewpoint**: Crude oil is testing the support level, and asphalt futures prices are waiting for a direction. - **Main Logic**: The increase in OPEC + production and other factors have put pressure on crude oil, and asphalt futures prices are affected by crude oil. The spot market shows a pattern of stronger in the north and weaker in the south, and the sales pressure is increasing. - **Outlook**: The absolute price of asphalt is over - valued, and the asphalt monthly spread is expected to decline with the increase of warehouse receipts [8]. 3.1.3 High - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Viewpoint**: High - sulfur fuel oil is weakly oscillating. - **Main Logic**: The increase in OPEC + production and the weakening of geopolitical conflicts have led to an increase in heavy - oil supply. Domestic import tariffs have been raised, and downstream demand is weak. - **Outlook**: Overall, the supply of high - sulfur fuel oil is expected to increase and demand to decrease, and it will oscillate weakly [9]. 3.1.4 Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Viewpoint**: Low - sulfur fuel oil futures prices oscillate following crude oil. - **Main Logic**: It follows the trend of crude oil. Although it is affected by factors such as the increase in diesel cracking spreads, it also faces multiple negative factors such as the decline in shipping demand. - **Outlook**: Affected by green fuel substitution and other factors, with limited demand space, it will follow the fluctuation of crude oil [10]. 3.1.5 Methanol - **Viewpoint**: The support from olefins is limited, and methanol oscillates. - **Main Logic**: The coal end has a short - term driving effect, and the port inventory has increased. The downstream olefin prices are under pressure, and there may be opportunities for long - positions in the far - month contracts. - **Outlook**: Short - term oscillation [22]. 3.1.6 Urea - **Viewpoint**: Export information has been finalized, market sentiment has cooled down, and the futures price may decline. - **Main Logic**: The export information did not meet market expectations, and combined with weak downstream demand, the futures price is under pressure. - **Outlook**: The futures price may decline in the short term, and attention should be paid to the further implementation of export information [23]. 3.1.7 Ethylene Glycol - **Viewpoint**: The port inventory continues to accumulate, and the price is under pressure. - **Main Logic**: Coal - based plants are restarting, and delayed imported goods have led to port inventory accumulation. With weak supply - demand drivers, the price will remain low. - **Outlook**: The price will oscillate within a range, and there is an expectation of an inventory inflection point [17]. 3.1.8 PX - **Viewpoint**: Lack of drivers and guidance, maintaining oscillating consolidation. - **Main Logic**: The futures price oscillates, the cost end lacks guidance, and the supply - demand pattern has limited marginal changes. - **Outlook**: Oscillation [11]. 3.1.9 PTA - **Viewpoint**: Limited drivers, low - level consolidation for observation. - **Main Logic**: Multiple plants have short - term shutdowns and restarts, and the inventory has decreased. However, due to sufficient spot liquidity, the profit repair is limited. - **Outlook**: Oscillation, focusing on the implementation of large - scale plant maintenance at the beginning of August [12]. 3.1.10 Short - Fiber - **Viewpoint**: Both supply and demand increase, with a slight reduction in inventory. - **Main Logic**: The price follows the upstream raw materials, the factory load increases slightly, and downstream demand leads to a slight reduction in inventory. - **Outlook**: The processing fee is weakly stable, and there is an expectation of inventory accumulation in the long - term, and the absolute price follows the raw materials [19]. 3.1.11 Bottle - Chip - **Viewpoint**: The price is passively following, maintaining low - level consolidation. - **Main Logic**: The price follows the upstream polyester raw materials, with weak supply - demand drivers and a decline in processing fees. - **Outlook**: The processing fee has support at the bottom, and the absolute price follows the raw materials [20]. 3.1.12 PP - **Viewpoint**: The impacts of oil and coal are differentiated, and PP oscillates. - **Main Logic**: The coal end has a short - term boosting effect, while the oil price oscillates weakly. The supply side has pressure, and the demand side is in the off - season. - **Outlook**: Short - term oscillation [28]. 3.1.13 Propylene - **Viewpoint**: The PP - PL spread around 600 is relatively reasonable, and PL oscillates in the short term. - **Main Logic**: Propylene enterprise inventories are controllable, and the price follows the fluctuations of PP and methanol. - **Outlook**: Short - term oscillation [29]. 3.1.14 Plastic - **Viewpoint**: The maintenance support is general, and plastic oscillates. - **Main Logic**: The oil price oscillates weakly, the macro - end has capital games, the supply side has pressure, and the demand side is in the off - season. - **Outlook**: The 09 contract oscillates in the short term [27]. 3.1.15 Pure Benzene - **Viewpoint**: Lack of drivers, pure benzene oscillates weakly. - **Main Logic**: The macro - sentiment has declined, the price of crude oil has fluctuated, and the concentrated production of upstream and downstream plants has affected the supply - demand relationship. - **Outlook**: In August, the supply increases, but there is new downstream production, and the balance sheet is expected to have a slight reduction in inventory [14]. 3.1.16 Styrene - **Viewpoint**: Inventory continues to accumulate, and styrene oscillates weakly. - **Main Logic**: The downstream restocking is not sustainable, the supply has increased, and the market is worried about the fundamentals. - **Outlook**: The price may oscillate slightly weakly [16]. 3.1.17 PVC - **Viewpoint**: Strong expectation but weak reality, PVC mainly oscillates. - **Main Logic**: The macro - sentiment is optimistic, but the fundamentals are under pressure, with an expected increase in production and stable downstream demand. - **Outlook**: The futures price oscillates [31]. 3.1.18 Caustic Soda - **Viewpoint**: The spot price is accelerating its decline, and the futures price is running weakly. - **Main Logic**: The macro - sentiment is optimistic, but the fundamentals show an increase in supply and a slow increase in demand, with inventory accumulation pressure. - **Outlook**: The spot price is accelerating its decline, and short - positions can take profits at low levels [32]. 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring 3.2.1 Energy and Chemical Daily Indicator Monitoring - **Cross - Period Spread**: Different varieties have different cross - period spread values and changes, such as Brent M1 - M2 with a latest value of 0.61 and a change of - 0.01 [34]. - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts**: Each variety has corresponding basis and warehouse receipt data, for example, the basis of asphalt is 232 with a change of 11, and the warehouse receipt is 76650 [35]. - **Cross - Variety Spread**: There are different cross - variety spread values and changes, such as the 1 - month PP - 3MA spread with a latest value of - 385 and a change of 4 [37]. 3.2.2 Chemical Basis and Spread Monitoring - Although the report lists various varieties such as methanol, urea, etc., no specific data or analysis content is provided in the given text.

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral [3] Core View - The closing price of the main EG contract was 4,396 yuan/ton (a change of -18 yuan/ton or -0.41% from the previous trading day), and the spot price of EG in the East China market was 4,475 yuan/ton (a change of -18 yuan/ton or -0.40% from the previous trading day). The spot basis of EG in East China (based on the 2509 contract) was 73 yuan/ton (a month-on-month decrease of 7 yuan/ton). Due to the concentrated arrival of delayed goods affected by the typhoon last week, the main ports accumulated inventory this week, causing the price center of ethylene glycol to oscillate downward and the basis to weaken [1]. - The production profit of ethylene-based EG was -$46/ton (a month-on-month increase of $2/ton), and the production profit of coal-based syngas EG was 8 yuan/ton (a month-on-month increase of 18 yuan/ton) [1]. - According to CCF data released every Monday, the inventory of MEG in the East China main port was 516,000 tons (a month-on-month decrease of 5,000 tons); according to Longzhong data released every Thursday, the inventory of MEG in the East China main port was 486,000 tons (a month-on-month increase of 59,000 tons). The total planned arrival volume at the East China main port this week was 138,000 tons. With concentrated arrival plans at the secondary ports, the total inventory of MEG at the East China main port area according to the Longzhong caliber was 485,700 tons, an increase of 22,200 tons from Monday and an increase of 58,500 tons from last Thursday [2]. - On the supply side, the load of ethylene glycol syngas production in China has returned to a high level and can be further increased under favorable conditions. Some EO-EG co-production plants on the non-coal side have plans or actions to switch from EO to EG, with an overall load that is moderately high. Overseas, the Sharq series of plants in Saudi Arabia have restarted, and ideally, the supply of ocean freight will gradually return to normal, with an expected increase in imports. On the demand side, there was concentrated restocking at the terminal in July, significantly alleviating the inventory pressure of filament. It is expected that the polyester load will remain stable in the short term, and attention should be paid to the order connection in August. Overall, there will be concentrated arrivals of foreign vessels at the beginning of August, with a slight inventory accumulation in the balance sheet. It is expected that the port inventory will remain stable at a low level with a slight increase in August [2]. Summary by Directory Price and Basis - The closing price of the main EG contract was 4,396 yuan/ton (a change of -18 yuan/ton or -0.41% from the previous trading day), and the spot price of EG in the East China market was 4,475 yuan/ton (a change of -18 yuan/ton or -0.40% from the previous trading day). The spot basis of EG in East China (based on the 2509 contract) was 73 yuan/ton (a month-on-month decrease of 7 yuan/ton) [1]. Production Profit and Operating Rate - The production profit of ethylene-based EG was -$46/ton (a month-on-month increase of $2/ton), and the production profit of coal-based syngas EG was 8 yuan/ton (a month-on-month increase of 18 yuan/ton) [1]. International Price Difference - No specific data or analysis provided in the text. Downstream Sales and Production and Operating Rate - No specific data or analysis provided in the text. Inventory Data - According to CCF data released every Monday, the inventory of MEG in the East China main port was 516,000 tons (a month-on-month decrease of 5,000 tons); according to Longzhong data released every Thursday, the inventory of MEG in the East China main port was 486,000 tons (a month-on-month increase of 59,000 tons). The total planned arrival volume at the East China main port this week was 138,000 tons. With concentrated arrival plans at the secondary ports, the total inventory of MEG at the East China main port area according to the Longzhong caliber was 485,700 tons, an increase of 22,200 tons from Monday and an increase of 58,500 tons from last Thursday [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific overall industry investment ratings are provided in the report. However, specific investment suggestions are given for each variety: - **Buy Suggestions**: Index futures (sell far - month contracts), Treasury bonds (buy on dips), Precious metals (low - buying for silver, hold gold long - positions), Iron ore (buy on dips), Coking coal (buy on dips, 9 - 1 calendar spread), Coke (buy on dips, 9 - 1 calendar spread), Copper (hold), Aluminum (range - trading), Zinc (range - trading), Nickel (range - trading), Urea (buy on dips, quick profit - taking), PTA (range - trading, TA1 - 5 reverse spread, expand processing margin), PP (range - trading, stop - loss for previous short - positions), Maize (long - position for 01 contract), Industrial silicon (hold call options), Polysilicon (hold call options) [2] - **Sell Suggestions**: Gold (sell put options below 760 yuan), Steel (sell on rallies), Container shipping index (sell on rallies), Alumina (range - trading), Crude oil (wait for geopolitical clarity), Caustic soda (hold short - positions), PVC (stop - loss for short - positions), Pure benzene (observe or short - term long), Styrene (range - trading), Synthetic rubber (observe), LLDPE (short - term long), Cotton (reduce near - month short - positions, hold 01 short - positions), Eggs (long - term short), Apples (observe around 7800), Glass (hold short - positions), Carbonate lithium (observe cautiously) [2] 2. Core Views - **Market Environment**: The second round of China - US trade talks extended tariff exemption clauses, and the Politburo meeting's policy tone was consistent with the previous one, causing short - term market expectation differences. The policy negatives were exhausted in early August, and the capital market became looser [2]. - **Market Trends**: Index futures continued to rise, TMT regained popularity; Treasury bonds were expected to oscillate upward; Precious metals' upward trend slowed down; The container shipping index was expected to be weak; Steel and iron ore prices fluctuated; Non - ferrous metals were supported by fundamentals; Energy and chemical products showed different trends; Agricultural products were affected by factors such as production expectations and inventory; Special and new energy products had their own characteristics in price movements [2]. 3. Summary by Variety **Financial** - **Index Futures**: Continued to rise, with TMT heating up again. Recommended selling far - month contracts and shorting MO put options with strike prices of 6300 - 6400, with a mild bullish view [2]. - **Treasury Bonds**: With policy negatives exhausted and loose funds, they were expected to oscillate upward. Suggested buying on dips and paying attention to July economic data [2]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold's upward trend slowed down, and silver was affected by market sentiment. Gold long - positions were held above 3300 dollars (770 yuan), and silver was bought at low levels around 36 - 37 dollars (8700 - 9000 yuan) [2]. **Industrial** - **Container Shipping Index (EC)**: Expected to be weakly oscillating, with a strategy of selling on rallies [2]. - **Steel and Iron Ore**: Steel turned to oscillation, and iron ore followed steel price fluctuations. Suggested buying on dips for iron ore and using a long - coking coal and short - iron ore strategy [2]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Copper was supported by fundamentals, and the price range was 77000 - 79000; Aluminum was oscillating, and the range was 20000 - 21000; Zinc was oscillating in a narrow range, and the range was 22000 - 23000; Nickel was oscillating strongly, and the range was 118000 - 126000 [2]. **Energy and Chemical** - **Crude Oil**: Weakly oscillating, with a strategy of waiting for geopolitical clarity. Support levels were [63, 64] for WTI, [66, 67] for Brent, and [490, 500] for SC [2]. - **Urea**: There was a game between export drive and weak domestic consumption. The short - term strategy was to buy on dips and take quick profits, and exit long - positions if the price did not break through 1770 - 1780 [2]. - **PTA**: With low processing fees and limited cost support, it was expected to oscillate in the range of 4600 - 4800. TA1 - 5 was treated with a reverse spread, and the processing margin was expanded at a low level (around 250) [2]. **Agricultural** - **Soybean Meal and Maize**: Maize was oscillating weakly, and the 01 contract of soybean meal was held long due to import concerns [2]. - **Palm Oil**: The price pulled back due to expected inventory increases. Observed whether P09 could stand firm at 9000 [2]. - **Cotton**: The downstream market was weak. Near - month short - positions were reduced, and 01 short - positions were held [2]. **Special and New Energy** - **Glass**: The spot sales weakened, and the contract was held short [2]. - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: Both were oscillating upward, and call options were held [2]. - **Carbonate Lithium**: The price was pulled up by news, but there were uncertainties in the mining end. It was mainly observed cautiously [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Bearish**: Crude oil, asphalt [1][2] - **Cautiously Bearish**: LPG, L, PP, PVC, PX, PTA, ethylene glycol, glass, caustic soda, methanol, propylene [1][2] - **Cautiously Bullish**: Soda ash, urea [2] 2. Core Views of the Report - **Crude oil**: OPEC+ continues to increase production, putting pressure on oil prices. Pay attention to the key support level of $60 [1]. - **LPG**: Cost drag vs. high basis, with the downside support for liquefied gas strengthening [1]. - **L**: Cost support weakens, and a cautious bearish stance is recommended [14]. - **PP**: Commercial total inventory continues to accumulate, and there is still pressure to destock [24]. - **PVC**: Cost support improves, but the fundamentals are weak, and a rebound is expected to be followed by a bearish trend [30]. - **PX**: Supply and demand are in a tight balance, but there is no unexpected bullish news from domestic and international macro factors, so a cautious bearish view is held [33]. - **PTA**: Supply and demand are in a tight balance, but there is no unexpected bullish news from domestic and international macro factors, so a cautious bearish stance is recommended [37]. - **Ethylene glycol**: Supply and demand are in a tight balance, but the macro - sentiment has subsided, and a cautious bearish view is taken [41]. - **Glass**: Spot quotes are lowered, and the futures price continues to correct [45]. - **Soda ash**: Inventory has changed from decreasing to increasing, and attention should be paid to the suppression of the 10 - day moving average [50]. - **Caustic soda**: The subsidy for liquid chlorine has narrowed, and the futures price center has moved down [54]. - **Methanol**: The expectation of a tight balance between supply and demand has eased, and crude oil is oscillating weakly, so a cautious bearish view is recommended [59]. - **Urea**: The domestic fundamentals are still relatively loose, but there may be speculation about urea exports during the period of macro - policy vacuum [2]. - **Asphalt**: There is room for cost - end oil prices to compress, and the raw material supply is sufficient, so a bearish view is taken [2]. - **Propylene**: Spot prices have increased, and the basis has strengthened, but the downstream demand is insufficient, so a cautious bearish stance is recommended [2]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Review**: Overnight international oil prices declined, with WTI down 1.24%, Brent down 1.11%, and SC down 0.96% [5]. - **Basic Logic**: OPEC decided to increase production by 548,000 barrels per day in September. The pressure from OPEC's production increase is gradually being released, and the oil price center still has room to decline [6]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the medium - to long - term, due to the substitution of new energy and OPEC's expansion of production, supply is gradually becoming excessive. Pay attention to the break - even point of new shale oil wells at around $60. In the short - term, the trend is weak below the 20 - day moving average, but the support below is gradually rising. Consider taking profits on short positions and then waiting and watching. SC should be monitored in the range of [490 - 505] [8]. LPG - **Market Review**: On August 6, the PG main contract closed at 3,835 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.36% [10]. - **Basic Logic**: The cost - end oil price has declined, and Saudi Arabia has lowered the August CP contract price. The cost is the main drag on liquefied gas, while the basis is at a high level [11]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the medium - to long - term, after the release of geopolitical risks, from the perspective of supply and demand, the upstream crude oil supply exceeds demand, and the center is expected to continue to move down. Currently, the ratio of liquefied gas to crude oil is similar to that of the same period last year, and the valuation is neutral. In the short - term, the RSI data is in the oversold range, and the downside support is strengthening, so there may be a short - term rebound. Consider taking profits on short positions and then lightly opening long positions. PG should be monitored in the range of [3750 - 3850] [12]. L - **Market Review**: The L2509 contract closed at 7,321 yuan/ton, and the North China basis was - 121 yuan/ton [16]. - **Basic Logic**: Cost support has weakened, spot prices have continuously declined, the basis has weakened, and social inventory has accumulated for 6 consecutive weeks. Recently, most plants have restarted, increasing supply pressure, and downstream restocking demand during the off - season is insufficient [17]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions [18]. PP - **Market Review**: The PP2509 contract closed at 7,078 yuan/ton [22]. - **Basic Logic**: Commercial total inventory continues to accumulate, domestic demand is at the transition point between the off - season and peak season, and downstream restocking demand is insufficient. Although there are many short - term upstream maintenance activities, the production capacity release pressure in the third quarter is high [24]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions or conduct a 9 - 1 calendar spread long strategy [24]. PVC - **Market Review**: The V2601 contract closed at 5,042 yuan/ton, and the number of warehouse receipts increased by 1,773 [28]. - **Basic Logic**: The price of calcium carbide has continuously increased, and coking coal has returned to a bullish trend, improving cost support. However, there are few maintenance plans in August, new production capacity is being released, and it is the off - season for both domestic and international demand, with weakened export support. Social inventory has accumulated for 6 consecutive weeks, and the supply - demand pattern in August is expected to continue to accumulate inventory [30]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: In August, the supply - demand pattern tends to accumulate inventory. Wait for the rebound and then take a bearish position [31]. PX - **Market Review**: On August 1, the spot price of PX in East China was 7,015 yuan/ton, and the PX09 contract closed at 6,812 yuan/ton [34]. - **Basic Logic**: There are few changes in domestic and overseas plants. Supply and demand are in a tight balance, but PX inventory is still relatively high. PXN is not low, and the basis has weakened. There is no macro - bullish news recently, and the sentiment in the commodity market has declined [35]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Take profits on long positions and look for short - selling opportunities. At the same time, sell call options. PX should be monitored in the range of [6700 - 6830] [36]. PTA - **Market Review**: On August 1, the spot price of PTA in East China was 4,740 yuan/ton, and the TA09 contract closed at 4,744 yuan/ton [38]. - **Basic Logic**: Some plants have shut down or reduced production, and the start - up rate has declined. The demand side is generally weak, and the start - up rates of downstream polyester and terminal weaving are weakening. The supply - demand tight - balance expectation for PTA in August has eased, and there is no unexpected bullish news from domestic and international macro factors recently [39]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Take profits on long positions and look for short - selling opportunities. At the same time, sell call options. TA should be monitored in the range of [4660 - 4740] [40]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Review**: On August 1, the spot price of ethylene glycol in East China was 4,480 yuan/ton, and the EG09 contract closed at 4,405 yuan/ton [42]. - **Basic Logic**: Domestic and overseas ethylene glycol plants have slightly increased their loads, but arrivals and imports are still low compared to the same period. The downstream polyester and terminal weaving are slightly weakening, and terminal demand is in the traditional off - season. The supply - demand is in a tight balance from July to August, and the inventory is generally low [43]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold long positions cautiously and sell call options. EG should be monitored in the range of [4390 - 4450] [44]. Glass - **Market Review**: Spot market quotes have been lowered, the futures price is showing differentiation, the Hubei basis has weakened, and the number of warehouse receipts remains unchanged [47]. - **Basic Logic**: At the macro level, there is no unexpected incremental policy for real estate in the Politburo meeting, and the official manufacturing PMI in July decreased by 0.4 percentage points month - on - month and is below the boom - bust line. The market risk appetite has declined, and the sentiment in the commodity market has been dampened. As the delivery month approaches, the market focus has shifted from expectations to fundamentals [48]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: FG2509 should be monitored in the range of [1050, 1100] [49]. Soda Ash - **Market Review**: The spot quotes of heavy soda ash are showing differentiation, the futures price is rising and falling unevenly, the basis has widened, the number of warehouse receipts remains unchanged, and the number of valid forecasts has increased [51]. - **Basic Logic**: The hype about macro - policies has cooled down. Recently, soda ash enterprises have been undergoing maintenance and restarts, resulting in a slight reduction in overall production. The weekly supply of soda ash has decreased, and the demand side mostly continues to take delivery based on rigid demand. The inventory of soda ash plants has ended three weeks of destocking and is still at a historically high level [52]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Be patient and wait for the correction to end. Temporarily wait and watch or take a cautious bearish stance [52]. Caustic Soda - **Market Review**: The spot quotes of liquid caustic soda are stable, the futures price has declined, the basis has widened, and the number of warehouse receipts has decreased [56]. - **Basic Logic**: On the supply side, summer plant maintenance has led to a decline in industry start - up. Some downstream alumina plants have resumed production, and the production of alumina has gradually increased. The theoretical production cost of caustic soda remains stable, the price of caustic soda has slightly decreased, the weekly average price of liquid chlorine has increased, and the production profit has increased. The supply and demand of caustic soda are balanced, and the inventory is high compared to the same period [57]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: No specific strategy is recommended in the text [58]. Methanol - **Market Review**: On August 1, the spot price of methanol in East China was 2,385 yuan/ton, and the main 09 contract of methanol closed at 2,393 yuan/ton [59]. - **Basic Logic**: Domestic methanol plants under maintenance have resumed production, and the start - up load of overseas methanol plants remains high, increasing the expected supply pressure. The expected demand has weakened, and the social inventory is accumulating, but it is still relatively low overall. The basis and the 9 - 1 spread have weakened, and the number of warehouse receipts has increased [2]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Add short positions at high prices for the 09 contract and sell call options. Look for low - buying opportunities for the 01 contract. Hold the MA9 - 1 reverse spread. MA should be monitored in the range of [2365 - 2410] [2]. Urea - **Market Review**: No specific market review content is provided in the text. - **Basic Logic**: The domestic supply of urea is expected to increase, and the demand is generally weak. However, there may be speculation about urea exports during the period of macro - policy vacuum. The valuation of urea is not high, and coal prices are capped and supported under the background of the "export quota system" and "peak - summer power consumption" [2]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Take profits on short positions and look for low - buying opportunities for UR601. At the same time, sell put options. UR should be monitored in the range of [1750 - 1790] [2]. Asphalt - **Market Review**: No specific market review content is provided in the text. - **Basic Logic**: There is room for cost - end oil prices to compress, and the raw material supply for asphalt is sufficient. The supply and demand are both decreasing, and the inventory is accumulating. The current cracking spread is at a high level, and the valuation is high [2]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Lightly open short positions. BU should be monitored in the range of [3500 - 3600] [2]. Propylene - **Market Review**: No specific market review content is provided in the text. - **Basic Logic**: Spot prices have increased, and the basis has strengthened. However, the cost support for PDH has weakened, the upstream start - up rate has marginally weakened, the downstream demand is insufficient, and the factory inventory has been accumulating for 4 consecutive weeks and is at a high level compared to the same period [2]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions or hold the 1 - 2 calendar spread reverse strategy. PL should be monitored in the range of [6350 - 6550] [2].