Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The geopolitical risk premium in the oil market has significantly subsided, and the market may shift to a weaker trend dominated by pessimistic supply - demand fundamentals. For precious metals, maintain a buy - on - dip strategy during the oscillation. Different metals and commodities have their own supply - demand situations and price trends, and investment strategies vary accordingly [2][3] - The stock market shows a certain sector rotation, and it is advisable to increase allocations in technology - growth and low - position consumption sectors. The bond market is in a state of shock consolidation, and attention should be paid to the entry timing of curve steepening [49][50] Summary by Related Catalogs Energy - **Crude Oil**: Overnight international oil prices fell, with Brent's October contract down 1.06%. The actual implementation of US sanctions on Russia may be less than expected, and the post - peak season supply - demand outlook is relatively loose. The market may turn to a weaker trend [2] - **Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The low - sulfur fuel oil market is weak, and the high - sulfur resources are relatively supported. The price difference between high - and low - sulfur fuel oils may shrink [22] - **Asphalt**: The August production plan is lower than that in July, but actual production may exceed expectations. Supply increase space is neutral, demand is weak but has repair expectations, and low inventory supports prices [23][24] - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas**: The Middle East CP has been significantly reduced, but the spot discount has shrunk. Supply is relatively loose, and the price is in a weak oscillation [25] Metals - **Precious Metals**: Overnight precious metals oscillated. Due to concerns about the Fed's independence, the US economic outlook, and rising interest - rate cut expectations, the US dollar remained weak, and gold tested the upper - limit resistance of the three - month range. Maintain a buy - on - dip strategy [3] - **Base Metals** - **Copper**: Overnight, copper prices oscillated around the MA60 moving average. There is no obvious market trend. LME copper may decline to $9500, and short positions are recommended [4] - **Aluminum**: Overnight, Shanghai aluminum oscillated strongly. Aluminum ingots have been accumulating inventory for two weeks, but aluminum rod production has rebounded. The price is in short - term oscillation with resistance at 21,000 yuan [5] - **Zinc**: The black market's short - selling atmosphere is insufficient. Shanghai zinc may have a phased rebound, but fundamentally, it is advisable to short on rallies in the medium term [8] - **Nickel**: Shanghai nickel is in the late stage of a rebound. It is recommended to actively enter short positions [10] - **Tin**: Overnight, LME tin retraced its gains. It is expected to be in an oscillating market, and high - position short positions should be closed [11] - **Manganese Silicon and Silicon Iron**: Their prices have risen significantly. They are affected by the "anti - involution" policy expectations, and attention should be paid to the pressure near previous highs [19][20] - **Coke and Coking Coal**: Their prices are affected by "anti - involution" policy expectations, with large short - term volatilities. Coke is bullish in the short term, and the downside space for coking coal is relatively small [17][18] - **Ferroalloys and Related Products** - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: It follows the trend of Shanghai aluminum. The scrap aluminum supply is tight, and it has certain resilience compared to aluminum prices [6] - **Alumina**: The operating capacity is at a historical high, the inventory is increasing, and the market is in surplus. The price is under pressure but has limited downside space [7] Chemicals - **Urea**: The market's bullish sentiment has cooled. Short - term supply and demand are loose, and the focus is on export policy changes [26] - **Methanol**: The coastal olefin开工 is not high, and the port is expected to accumulate inventory seasonally. In the short term, the market is weak, while in the long term, attention should be paid to the peak season demand [27] - **Pure Benzene**: The price has rebounded slightly. There is an expectation of improved supply - demand in the third quarter and pressure in the fourth quarter. It is recommended to conduct monthly - spread band trading [28] - **Benzene Ethylene**: The expected output of a new device may have a negative impact. The supply - demand fundamentals provide weak support [29] - **Polypropylene, Plastic & Propylene**: Propylene demand is boosted, and supply is reduced, supporting the price. Polyethylene has an expected increase in short - term output, and the supply - demand is increasing. Polypropylene has stable prices, but downstream demand is weak [29] - **PVC & Caustic Soda**: PVC is oscillating, with cost support increasing and supply rising. Caustic soda is oscillating weakly, and the long - term supply pressure is high [30] - **PX & PTA**: They rebounded due to device production reduction. If PTA production cuts increase, PX demand may decline. Attention should be paid to PTA's valuation repair [31] - **Ethylene Glycol**: The price rebounded, and there is an expectation of increased demand in the future [32] Agricultural Products - **Soybeans & Soybean Meal**: US soybeans are oscillating weakly, and domestic soybean meal inventory is at a high level. Before the tariff issue is clear, the market is in oscillation [37] - **Soybean Oil & Palm Oil**: Maintain a buy - on - dip strategy. There are uncertainties in soybean oil supply, and palm oil may enter a production - reduction cycle [38] - **Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil**: The Canadian rapeseed futures price is under short - term pressure. The rapeseed market is in short - term oscillation [39] - **Soybean No.1**: There will be a policy - based auction of domestic soybeans. The price difference between domestic and imported soybeans is narrowing [40] - **Corn**: US corn prices are falling, and domestic corn futures are running weakly. There is an expectation of a bumper harvest for new - season corn [41] - **Hogs**: The spot price is weak, and the output in the fourth quarter is expected to increase [42] - **Eggs**: The spot price is weak, and the futures market suggests a reverse - spread strategy [43] - **Cotton**: US cotton prices fell, and domestic cotton demand is weak. The new - season Xinjiang cotton has a strong production - increase expectation [44] - **Sugar**: US sugar is trending downward, and the domestic sugar market is expected to be in oscillation [45] - **Apples**: The futures price is oscillating. Attention should be paid to the price of early - maturing apples and new - season production estimates [46] Others - **Shipping**: The freight rate of the container shipping index (European line) is accelerating its decline, and market pessimism may intensify [21] - **Stock Index**: The stock market shows an incremental upward trend, with small - and micro - cap stocks leading the rise. It is advisable to increase allocations in technology - growth and low - position consumption sectors [49] - **Bond**: The bond market is in shock consolidation, and attention should be paid to the entry timing of curve steepening [50]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - BZ port inventory has slightly decreased without further accumulation. Short - term downstream demand for BZ is okay, but the开工 rates of CPL and styrene have declined, and there is still some finished - product inventory pressure on the downstream, with the开工 rate of phenol - acetone also dropping. On the supply side, the shipping pressure from South Korea has not further increased, but the new production capacity of Yulong Petrochemical in China will impact the market, and BZ processing fees will continue to consolidate at a low level. For styrene, the port inventory peaked and declined in the first week, the port basis rebounded slightly from the bottom, and the futures 09 - 10 inter - period spread has rebounded. The downstream pick - up volume has increased, indicating the emergence of speculative demand for the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season. However, there is still inventory pressure on PS and ABS, the production profit is average, and the sustainability of stockpiling is questionable, while the styrene 开工 rate remains high [3] Summary According to the Directory I. Pure Benzene and EB's Basis Structure and Inter - period Spread - Pure benzene: The main basis is - 195 yuan/ton (+10), and the spot - M2 spread is - 65 yuan/ton (+0). For the inter - period spread, relevant data is not further elaborated in terms of specific trading strategies in this part [1] - Styrene: The main basis is 18 yuan/ton (+4), and the futures 09 - 10 inter - period spread has rebounded [1][3] II. Production Profits and Internal - External Spreads of Pure Benzene and Styrene - Pure benzene: The CFR China processing fee is 165 dollars/ton (+12 dollars/ton), the FOB South Korea processing fee is 153 dollars/ton (+13 dollars/ton), and the US - South Korea spread is 69.7 dollars/ton (+3.0 dollars/ton) [1] - Styrene: The non - integrated production profit is - 238 yuan/ton (+4 yuan/ton), and it is expected to gradually compress [1] III. Inventory and 开工 Rate of Pure Benzene and Styrene - Pure benzene: The port inventory is 16.30 tons (- 0.70 tons), and the 开工 rate situation is not specifically mentioned [1] - Styrene: The East China port inventory is 159,000 tons (- 5,000 tons), the East China commercial inventory is 66,500 tons (- 1,000 tons), and it is in the inventory reconstruction stage. The 开工 rate is 78.9% (+0.1%) [1] IV. 开工 and Production Profits of Styrene Downstream - EPS: The production profit is 223 yuan/ton (+5 yuan/ton), and the 开工 rate is 54.25% (- 0.95%) [2] - PS: The production profit is - 27 yuan/ton (+5 yuan/ton), and the 开工 rate is 53.30% (+1.70%) [2] - ABS: The production profit is 139 yuan/ton (- 14 yuan/ton), and the 开工 rate is 65.90% (- 0.92%). The downstream 开工 is at a seasonal low [2] V. 开工 and Production Profits of Pure Benzene Downstream - Caprolactam: The production profit is - 1535 yuan/ton (+60), and the 开工 rate is 90.21% (- 0.69%) [1] - Phenol - acetone: The production profit is - 647 yuan/ton (- 87), and the 开工 rate is 73.00% (- 5.00%) [1] - Aniline: The production profit is - 160 yuan/ton (- 47), and the 开工 rate is 73.94% (+0.28%) [1] - Adipic acid: The production profit is - 1373 yuan/ton (- 41), and the 开工 rate is 64.80% (+0.00%) [1] Strategies - Unilateral: Wait and see for pure benzene and styrene [4] - Basis and inter - period: For the near - month BZ paper - cargo - distal BZ2603 spread, conduct reverse arbitrage when it is high; for the BZ2603 - BZ2605 inter - period spread, conduct reverse arbitrage when it is high; for the EB2509 - 2510 inter - period spread, conduct reverse arbitrage when it is high [4] - Cross - variety: Shrink the EB - BZ spread when it is high [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - For PTA, the start - up is expected to gradually stabilize and have upward flexibility. Investors can focus on opportunities to expand processing fees by buying at low prices [2]. - For MEG, in the short term, the inventory accumulation pressure is not large, and the port inventory is expected to remain low. The pattern is good and the profit is not low. In the long - term, there is an inventory accumulation expectation due to overseas device restart and increased coal - based load. It should be viewed with wide - range fluctuations, and attention should be paid to the restart progress of satellite devices [3]. - For polyester staple fiber, as the finished - product inventory of polyester yarn is reduced, the downstream start - up may increase. Although the supply of staple fiber itself may also increase, considering that the processing fee on the disk is still in a low range, investors can focus on opportunities to expand processing fees by buying at low prices [3]. - For natural rubber and 20 - grade rubber, the main contradictions are that the national explicit inventory remains stable with a not - high absolute level but no seasonal reduction, and the price of Thai cup rubber rebounds due to rainfall affecting tapping. The strategy is to wait and see [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs PTA - **Price and Margin Changes**: From July 30 to August 5, 2025, the price of crude oil decreased from $73.2 to $67.6, the PTA internal - market spot price decreased from 4860 to 4660, and the PTA processing margin changed from 119 to 75 [2]. - **Device Changes**: Yisheng New Materials increased the load of its 7.2 - million - ton device; Taihua plans to overhaul a 1.5 - million - ton device and restart a 1.2 - million - ton device [2]. - **Market Situation**: The load of proximal TA existing devices decreased significantly while new devices started production. The polyester load declined slightly, inventory continued to accumulate, the basis was weak, and the spot processing fee decreased again. The domestic start - up of PX increased slightly, there were some overseas accidents, the PXN weakened significantly, the benefits of disproportionation and isomerization declined, and the aromatics price difference between the US and Asia continued to shrink [3]. MEG - **Price and Margin Changes**: From July 30 to August 5, 2025, the MEG external - market price decreased from 531 to 523, and the MEG coal - based profit decreased from 712 to 489 [3]. - **Device Changes**: The 300,000 - ton device in Tongliao, Inner Mongolia, restarted [3]. - **Market Situation**: The start - up of domestic coal - based MEG decreased slightly. Affected by the weather, both the port arrival and提货 decreased significantly during the week, the port inventory decreased slightly, the downstream stocking level decreased significantly, the basis strengthened slightly, and the profit declined from a high level [3]. Polyester Staple Fiber - **Price and Margin Changes**: From July 30 to August 5, 2025, the price of 1.4D cotton - type staple fiber decreased from 6665 to 6550, and the short - fiber profit increased from - 23 to 56 [3]. - **Device Changes**: The small - line of Xianglu stopped for maintenance, and the start - up decreased slightly to 90.3% [3]. - **Market Situation**: The start - up of the polyester yarn end remained stable, the raw - material stocking decreased, the finished - product inventory decreased, and the profit declined [3]. Natural Rubber and 20 - Grade Rubber - **Price Changes**: From July 30 to August 5, 2025, the price of US - dollar Thai standard rubber decreased from 1780 to 1760, and the price of Shanghai full - latex decreased from 14545 to 14145 [3]. - **Market Situation**: The national explicit inventory remained stable, the price of Thai cup rubber rebounded, and rainfall affected tapping [3]. Styrene - **Price and Margin Changes**: From July 30 to August 5, 2025, the price of pure benzene (CFR China) decreased from 767 to 750, and the styrene domestic profit changed from - 162 to - 182 [6]. - **Market Situation**: The price of related products such as styrene, PS, and ABS changed slightly, and the profit of some products also changed slightly [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report - Low oil prices may facilitate peace talks between Russia and Ukraine, and there is a divergence between coal and crude oil. The supply of chemical products is increasing, and there will be a divergence between oil - based and coal - based chemical industries [2][3]. - Geopolitical expectations for crude oil are fluctuating, and attention should be paid to Russian oil risks. The high valuation of asphalt will eventually decline. High - sulfur fuel oil is regarded as weak, and low - sulfur fuel oil futures prices weaken following crude oil. Methanol fluctuates with the rebound of the coal end. Urea's futures price rises firmly due to the better - than - expected Indian tender. Ethylene glycol rebounds first due to strong coal and weak oil. PX maintains a volatile state. PTA's cost has no strong support, and its basis and processing fees are continuously compressed. Short - fiber is relatively resistant to price drops. The processing fee of bottle - grade polyester chips is slightly repaired. PP fluctuates with the divergence of oil and coal support. Propylene fluctuates, and PL is short - term volatile and weak. Plastic fluctuates with a slight boost from the coal end. Pure benzene has a narrow - range fluctuation. Styrene fluctuates weakly with increasing inventory. PVC fluctuates mainly with strong expectations but weak reality. Caustic soda fluctuates weakly with increasing spot pressure [4]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Views 3.1.1 Crude Oil - **View**: Geopolitical expectations are fluctuating, and attention should be paid to Russian oil risks. - **Main Logic**: Overnight oil prices closed down. Russia is considering an air cease - fire, and Trump continues to threaten India with tariffs. The geopolitical situation has both positive and negative developments. The API data shows that US crude oil and diesel inventories continued to rise last week, and the high - operating rate of refineries is expected to be limited in the future. - **Outlook**: Short - term volatility, focusing on the implementation of US sanctions against Russia [8]. 3.1.2 Asphalt - **View**: The spot pressure increases, and the high valuation of asphalt finally declines. - **Main Logic**: OPEC+ will increase production in September, and the market may refocus on the negative impacts of tariff increases and OPEC+ production increases. The current asphalt spot market is stronger in the north and weaker in the south, and the sales pressure is rising. The asphalt - fuel oil spread has declined but is still at a high level, driving the refinery operating rate to return. - **Outlook**: The absolute price of asphalt is over - valued, and the asphalt monthly spread is expected to decline with the increase of warehouse receipts [9]. 3.1.3 High - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **View**: High - sulfur fuel oil is regarded as weak. - **Main Logic**: OPEC+ will continue to increase production in September, and the supply of heavy oil is expected to increase. The conflicts in Russia - Ukraine, Palestine - Israel, and the US - Iran relations are expected to ease in the medium - to - long term. China has increased the import tariff on fuel oil, and the demand for high - sulfur fuel oil has decreased. The high - sulfur fuel oil is in a situation of oversupply. - **Outlook**: Overall, the supply of high - sulfur fuel oil is expected to increase and demand to decrease, and it will fluctuate weakly [10]. 3.1.4 Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **View**: Low - sulfur fuel oil futures prices weaken following crude oil. - **Main Logic**: Low - sulfur fuel oil follows the weakness of crude oil. Although the diesel cracking spread has risen recently, low - sulfur fuel oil is facing negative factors such as the decline in shipping demand, green energy substitution, and high - sulfur substitution. The domestic refined oil supply pressure is increasing, which is likely to be transmitted to low - sulfur fuel oil. - **Outlook**: Low - sulfur fuel oil is affected by green fuel substitution and has limited demand space for high - sulfur substitution. It currently has a low valuation and fluctuates with crude oil [11]. 3.1.5 PX - **View**: Cost support is poor, and its own supply - demand changes are limited, maintaining a volatile state. - **Main Logic**: The raw material price performance is poor, and the cost support is insufficient. The supply - demand situation of PX itself has few changes, and the direct demand has some support after the commissioning of new devices. - **Outlook**: Volatility [12]. 3.1.6 PTA - **View**: There is no strong cost support, and supply - demand is under pressure. The basis and processing fees are continuously compressed. - **Main Logic**: The upstream cost performance is poor, and the support is insufficient. The supply side has both shutdown and restart situations, and the overall supply has no obvious contraction. The demand side has mediocre sales of polyester yarns, and suppliers' active sales have pushed down the basis. - **Outlook**: Volatility, focusing on the implementation of major plant overhauls at the beginning of August [12]. 3.1.7 Pure Benzene - **View**: The driving force is insufficient, and pure benzene fluctuates weakly. - **Main Logic**: After the Politburo meeting, the macro - sentiment has declined, but there is still some support from the parade expectation. The crude oil price has fluctuated. Recently, there have been concentrated commissionings of pure benzene upstream and downstream devices, and the commissioning rhythm has a great impact on the fundamentals. - **Outlook**: During the consumption peak season and with sanctions risks, crude oil is temporarily stable in the short term. In August, the supply of pure benzene increases, but there are new downstream commissionings, and the balance sheet is expected to have a slight inventory reduction [14]. 3.1.8 Styrene - **View**: Inventory continues to accumulate, and styrene fluctuates weakly. - **Main Logic**: Last week, the macro - sentiment was good, and there was some restocking in the styrene downstream. This week, the restocking sustainability is insufficient, and the support for styrene is weakened. In addition, the supply of styrene itself has recovered, the port inventory has continued to accumulate, and the new home appliance production schedule data is still average. - **Outlook**: Recently, due to weather reasons, the port arrivals have decreased, and the downward driving force has weakened. The cost - end pure benzene is stable or slightly stronger, but the driving force for styrene is also limited. Overall, the styrene price may fluctuate slightly weakly [16]. 3.1.9 Ethylene Glycol - **View**: With strong coal and weak oil, ethylene glycol rebounds first. - **Main Logic**: The cost end has certain support with weak oil and strong coal. Ethylene glycol stabilizes first and rebounds following the coal - chemical industry after hitting the bottom. The overall supply - demand variables are few. The shutdown of a South China plant delays the inventory accumulation expectation. - **Outlook**: The price fluctuates within a range, and there is an expectation of an inventory inflection point [17]. 3.1.10 Short - Fiber - **View**: The cost trend is differentiated, and the price is relatively resistant to drops. - **Main Logic**: The upstream polymerization cost support is still poor. In the pattern of strong coal and weak oil, it is more resistant to drops than upstream PTA. The short - term processing fee support is relatively strong. The supply - demand pattern has few variables, and the sales performance is mediocre. - **Outlook**: The short - fiber processing fee shows a weak - stable trend, and there is a medium - to - long - term inventory accumulation expectation. The absolute value of short - fiber fluctuates with raw materials [19]. 3.1.11 Bottle - Grade Polyester Chips - **View**: The production reduction scale continues, and the processing fee is slightly repaired. - **Main Logic**: The raw material support is insufficient, and the oil and coal trends are differentiated. With the production reduction on the supply side, the overall decline is less than that of the upstream cost, and the processing fee is repaired. - **Outlook**: The processing fee of bottle - grade polyester chips has support at the bottom, and the absolute value fluctuates with raw materials [19]. 3.1.12 Methanol - **View**: The rebound of the coal end has some driving effects, and methanol fluctuates. - **Main Logic**: On August 5, the methanol futures price rebounded slightly, driven by the short - term coal end. The production enterprises sold at a discount, and the downstream purchased on demand. The olefin demand followed up normally, and other demands were relatively stable. The port inventory increased. - **Outlook**: Short - term volatility [22]. 3.1.13 Urea - **View**: The Indian tender exceeds expectations, and exports may change. The futures price rises firmly. - **Main Logic**: The Indian tender information on August 4 exceeded expectations, which had a positive impact on the market sentiment for exports. The futures trading volume increased, and the price rose. However, the subsequent market still depends on the supply - strong and demand - weak fundamentals. - **Outlook**: After the price increase, the market needs actual positive support. Without obvious changes in the fundamentals, attention should be paid to export - related policy information and possible further changes in the current Indian tender before August 8 [23]. 3.1.14 LLDPE - **View**: The coal end has a slight boost, and LLDPE fluctuates. - **Main Logic**: On August 5, the LLDPE futures price rebounded slightly. The oil price is in short - term volatile decline, and the supply pressure from OPEC+ production increase makes the crude oil inventory not decline seasonally in the past two months. The macro - end is slightly warmer in the short term, and the coal end still has positive news. The LLDPE's own fundamentals are still under pressure, with high supply and weak demand. - **Outlook**: The short - term oil price decline and the short - term slight boost from the coal end make the LLDPE 09 contract fluctuate in the short term [25]. 3.1.15 PP - **View**: The support from oil and coal is still differentiated, and PP fluctuates. - **Main Logic**: On August 4, the PP futures price rebounded slightly. The coal end has a short - term boost, and the oil price is in short - term volatile decline. The supply side of PP is still increasing, and the demand side is weak. The overseas price is stable, and the export window is limited. - **Outlook**: Short - term volatility [26]. 3.1.16 PL - **View**: It mainly follows the fluctuations, and PL is short - term volatile. - **Main Logic**: On August 5, the PL futures price fluctuated. The inventory of propylene enterprises is controllable, and the offer price continued to rise slightly. The downstream factories followed up as needed. The short - term market follows the fluctuations of PP and methanol, and the coal end rebound has a boost today. - **Outlook**: Short - term volatility [27]. 3.1.17 PVC - **View**: Strong expectations but weak reality, PVC fluctuates mainly. - **Main Logic**: At the macro level, the strict inspection of coking coal over - production has raised the expectation of supply disturbances, and the sentiment is optimistic. At the micro level, the PVC fundamentals are under pressure, and the cost is expected to rise. The upstream production is expected to increase, the downstream demand is mainly for rigid needs, the export has improved, and the cost is expected to move up. - **Outlook**: The market fluctuates with strong expectations but weak reality [29]. 3.1.18 Caustic Soda - **View**: The spot pressure is gradually increasing, and caustic soda fluctuates weakly. - **Main Logic**: At the macro level, the strict inspection of coking coal over - production has raised the expectation of supply disturbances, and the sentiment is optimistic. At the fundamental level, the demand from some areas has increased marginally, but the inventory pressure of 50% caustic soda is increasing, and the upstream may switch to producing 32% caustic soda. - **Outlook**: The near - month warehouse receipt pressure is large, and there are negative factors such as the loosening of the spot price. The market has a large downward pressure, and attention should be paid to whether the upstream reduces production due to low profits, the downstream peak - season performance, and policy - related disturbances [30]. 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring 3.2.1 Inter - Period Spread - The report provides the inter - period spreads of various varieties such as Brent, Dubai, PX, PTA, etc., including their latest values and change values [31]. 3.2.2 Basis and Warehouse Receipts - The report provides the basis, change values, and warehouse receipts of varieties such as asphalt, high - sulfur fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, etc. [32]. 3.2.3 Inter - Variety Spread - The report provides the inter - variety spreads between different varieties such as PP - 3MA, TA - EG, etc., including their latest values and change values [33].

gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn 2025年08月06日 (原油) 隔夜国际油价继续回落，布伦特10合约跌1.46%，OPEC+9月增产决策及近期美国表现不佳的经济数 据仍令市场承压。昨日特朗普表示将在未来24小时大幅提升对印度进口关税以制裁其购买俄油的行 为，临近8月12日到期日中美对等关税延期的问题亦未最终落地，关注俄油制裁引发的油价上行风 险。上周美国API原油库存超预期下降423.3万桶,关注今晚EIA库存表现。 【责金属】 隔夜美国公布7月非制造业PMI从50.8下滑至50.1低于预期的51.5。美联储独立性问题、美国经济前 景担忧以及降息预期升温令美元维持偏弱趋势，国际金价再度测试近三个月以来运行区间高位阻 力。美国经济的不断验证可能令市场情绪存在反复，贵金属震荡趋势中维持回调买入思路。 【铜】 隔夜铜价走跌到MA60日均线下方，一方面伦铜库存单日大增，另一方面特朗普言论，尤其ISM服务 业指数零增长，再次凸显美国经济增长压力，铜价收跌。不过市场仍在评估Codelco地下矿场事故 可能对年度生产目标的影响，下半年供损率有提升风险。伦铜可能震荡下调到9500美元，空单持 有。 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - BZ port inventory decreased slightly without further accumulation. Short - term downstream demand for BZ is okay, but the开工 of CPL and styrene has declined, and there is still some pressure on finished product inventory in the downstream, with the开工 of phenol - ketone also dropping. On the supply side, the shipping pressure from South Korea has not further increased, but the new production capacity of Yulong Petrochemical in China will impact the market, and BZ processing fees will continue to consolidate at a low level. For styrene, port inventory peaked and declined in the first week, port basis rebounded, and downstream提货 volume increased, indicating the emergence of speculative demand in the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season. Domestic EB开工 remains high, and there is still pressure for inventory accumulation, especially as the开工 of downstream PS and ABS is still low. The recommended strategies are to remain on the sidelines for both pure benzene and styrene in the single - side trading. For basis and inter - period trading, short the spread between near - month BZ paper cargo and distant - month BZ2603 when the spread is high, short the BZ2603 - BZ2605 inter - period spread when it is high, and short the EB2509 - 2510 inter - period spread when it is high. For cross - product trading, short the EB - BZ spread when it is high [3] Summary by Directory 1. Pure Benzene and EB's Basis Structure and Inter - period Spread - Pure benzene: The main basis of pure benzene is - 205 yuan/ton (- 15). The spread between East China pure benzene spot and M2 is - 65 yuan/ton (+ 10 yuan/ton), and the spread between the first - month and third - month contracts of pure benzene is also presented in the report [1][11] - Styrene: The main basis of styrene is 14 yuan/ton (- 40 yuan/ton), and the spread between the first - month and third - month contracts of styrene is also included in the analysis [1][17] 2. Production Profits and Domestic - Foreign Spreads of Pure Benzene and Styrene - Pure benzene: The CFR China processing fee of pure benzene is 153 dollars/ton (+ 0 dollars/ton), the FOB South Korea processing fee is 140 dollars/ton (+ 2 dollars/ton), and the US - South Korea price difference is 66.8 dollars/ton (- 7.1 dollars/ton). The production profits of downstream products such as caprolactam, phenol - ketone, aniline, and adipic acid are - 1595 yuan/ton (+ 0), - 560 yuan/ton (+ 51), - 160 yuan/ton (- 47), and - 1332 yuan/ton (+ 7) respectively [1] - Styrene: The non - integrated production profit of styrene is - 243 yuan/ton (- 12 yuan/ton) and is expected to gradually compress [1] 3. Inventory and Operating Rates of Pure Benzene and Styrene - Pure benzene: The port inventory of pure benzene is 16.30 million tons (- 0.70 million tons), and the operating rate data of downstream products such as caprolactam, phenol, aniline, and adipic acid are 90.21% (- 0.69%), 73.00% (- 5.00%), 73.94% (+ 0.28%), and 64.80% (+ 0.00%) respectively [1] - Styrene: The East China port inventory of styrene is 159,000 tons (- 5,000 tons), the East China commercial inventory is 66,500 tons (- 1,000 tons), and the operating rate is 78.9% (+ 0.1%) [1] 4. Operating Rates and Production Profits of Styrene's Downstream - EPS: The production profit is 218 yuan/ton (- 55 yuan/ton), and the operating rate is 54.25% (- 0.95%) [2] - PS: The production profit is - 32 yuan/ton (+ 15 yuan/ton), and the operating rate is 53.30% (+ 1.70%) [2] - ABS: The production profit is 152 yuan/ton (- 173 yuan/ton), and the operating rate is 65.90% (- 0.92%) [2] 5. Operating Rates and Production Profits of Pure Benzene's Downstream - Caprolactam: The operating rate is 90.21% (- 0.69%), and the production profit is - 1595 yuan/ton (+ 0) [1] - Phenol - ketone: The operating rate is 73.00% (- 5.00%), and the production profit is - 560 yuan/ton (+ 51) [1] - Aniline: The operating rate is 73.94% (+ 0.28%), and the production profit is - 160 yuan/ton (- 47) [1] - Adipic acid: The operating rate is 64.80% (+ 0.00%), and the production profit is - 1332 yuan/ton (+ 7) [1]

中银证券近日发布化工行业周报：本周（07.28-08.03）均价跟踪的100个化工品种中， 共有39个品种价格上涨，31个品种价格下跌，30个品种价格稳定。跟踪的产品中33%的产品 月均价环比上涨，60%的产品月均价环比下跌，另外7%产品价格持平。本周（07.28-08.03） 国际油价小幅上涨，WTI原油期货价格收于67.30美元/桶，收盘价周涨幅3.33%；布伦特原油 期货价格收于69.67美元/桶，收盘价周涨幅1.80%。 以下为研究报告摘要： 行业动态 本周（07.28-08.03）均价跟踪的100个化工品种中，共有39个品种价格上涨，31个品种 价格下跌，30个品种价格稳定。跟踪的产品中33%的产品月均价环比上涨，60%的产品月均 价环比下跌，另外7%产品价格持平。周均价涨幅居前的品种分别是环氧氯丙烷（华东）、 液氨（河北新化）、轻质纯碱（华东）、软泡聚醚（华东散水）、石脑油（新加坡）；周均 价跌幅居前的品种分别是NYMEX天然气、天然橡胶（上海）、DMF（华东）、醋酸乙烯 （华东）、顺丁橡胶（华东）。 本周（07.28-08.03）国际油价小幅上涨，WTI原油期货价格收于67.30美元/桶，收盘价 ...

Core Viewpoint - The PTA market is expected to shift from inventory accumulation to inventory reduction in August due to increased maintenance and a potential recovery in downstream demand during the traditional peak season [5]. Group 1: Market Performance - On the previous trading day, the PTA2509 main contract fell by 2.02%, with the current spot price in East China at 4750 CNY/ton and a basis rate of 0.13% [1]. - As of August 4, the main PTA futures contract closed at 4698.00 CNY/ton, down 1.34%, with a daily trading volume of 505,907 lots [2]. Group 2: Price Information - The price list for PTA on August 4 shows various brands and their market prices, with the highest being 5300 CNY/ton for Yisheng in Hubei Province and the lowest at 4720 CNY/ton for Hengli in Suzhou [2]. Group 3: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The average capacity utilization rate for PTA is 79.67%, a decrease of 1.09% from the previous week, with domestic PTA production at 1.4261 million tons, down by 18,900 tons from the previous week [4]. - As of August 1, the number of PTA futures warehouse receipts was 27,731, a decrease of 2,007 from the previous trading day [3]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Analysts predict that with more PTA facilities entering maintenance in August, the oversupply situation will ease, and if maintenance plans are realized along with a recovery in terminal demand, the PTA market may achieve inventory reduction and a slight price increase [5].

Core Insights - The report highlights that the recent improvement in supply-demand policies is expected to partially reverse the current unfavorable economic situation, driven by increased domestic demand from projects like the Yaxia Hydropower Station and ongoing "anti-involution" policies [4][10] - The cyclical stocks have shown strong performance recently, with the market's expectations for price improvements rapidly increasing, indicating a potential continuation of market valuation support in the short term [4][10] - The report emphasizes that the current market environment is characterized by ample liquidity, which, combined with the low valuation levels of cyclical sectors, has contributed to the rapid upward movement of these stocks [4][10] Stock Recommendations - The August stock selection includes: SF Express (transportation), Satellite Chemical (chemicals), Anji Technology (chemicals), Heng Rui Medicine (pharmaceuticals), Bairen Medical (pharmaceuticals), Beijing Renli (services), Feiliwa (electronics), Industrial Fulian (electronics), Pengding Holdings (electronics), and Hehe Information (computers) [10][11] - The report notes that the July stock selection achieved an absolute return of 9.64%, outperforming the market benchmark (CSI 300) by 6.10 percentage points, with individual stocks like Jitu Express-W and Shenghong Technology yielding returns of 57.23% and 42.94%, respectively [6][10] Industry Analysis Transportation Sector - SF Express reported a steady growth in Q1 2025, with a net profit of 2.234 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 16.87%, driven by an improved product matrix and service competitiveness [12][13] Chemical Sector - Satellite Chemical achieved a record high net profit in Q4 2024, benefiting from stable raw material prices and increased sales margins, with a sales gross margin of 27.11% [14][15] - Anji Technology experienced rapid revenue growth in 2024, with a gross margin of 58.45%, attributed to market expansion and product diversification [17][18] Pharmaceutical Sector - Heng Rui Medicine's overseas licensing agreements have contributed to significant revenue growth, with Q4 2024 net profit increasing by 107.20% year-on-year [20][21] - Bairen Medical's revenue growth was driven by the successful launch of its first interventional valve product, which significantly boosted its performance in 2024 [22][23] Service Sector - Beijing Renli has a strong market presence in the human resources industry, with a broad service offering and a robust client base, positioning it for continued growth [25][26] Electronics Sector - Feiliwa is expanding its production capacity in quartz fiber cloth, targeting the growing demand in the PCB market, with a projected CAGR of 12% from 2024 to 2029 [27][28] - Industrial Fulian's cloud computing business has shown significant growth, with revenue from AI servers increasing by over 150% [31][32] - Pengding Holdings is expected to achieve steady revenue and profit growth in the first half of 2025, driven by cost control and product structure optimization [33][34]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The oil price is expected to fluctuate strongly after a correction this week, and attention should be paid to the implementation of the extension of Sino - US reciprocal tariffs before August 12 [1] - Precious metals are expected to maintain a fluctuating trend, and the idea of buying on dips is recommended [2] - For most commodities, the market is affected by various factors such as macro - economy, supply - demand relationship, and policy, showing different trends of rise, fall, or shock [1][2][3] Summary by Commodity Categories Energy - **Crude Oil**: Last week, the crude oil market rose first and then fell. The Brent 10 contract rose 2.84%, and the SC09 contract rose 2.92%. OPEC +'s production increase in September can only partially hedge risks and demand. The oil price is expected to fluctuate strongly after a correction [1] - **Fuel Oil & Low - sulfur Fuel Oil**: FU and LU cracks continued to decline. The fundamentals of the high - and low - sulfur fuel oil markets are weak, and the crack spreads are also weak [21] - **Asphalt**: In August, the domestic production volume decreased compared with July. Demand recovery was delayed, and inventory destocking was weak. The price follows the crude oil direction with limited fluctuation [22] - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas**: The Middle East CP was significantly reduced, and the domestic market was under pressure. The price was running at a low level [23] Metals - **Precious Metals**: After the US non - farm payrolls data was far below expectations, the dollar fell, and precious metals rebounded. A buy - on - dips strategy is recommended in the fluctuating trend [2] - **Base Metals** - **Copper**: LME copper fluctuated and closed down. Short - term attention should be paid to the resistance of the MA60 moving average. Hold short positions [3] - **Aluminum**: Shanghai aluminum fluctuated narrowly at night. The macro - sentiment was repeated, and the inventory increased. It may continue to be under pressure and fluctuate [4] - **Zinc**: The 08 contract entered the delivery month. The supply was expected to increase, and the demand was weak. The price was recommended to be shorted on rebounds [7] - **Lead**: The price continued to decline. There was support at the bottom. It is recommended to hold long positions [8] - **Nickel**: Shanghai nickel fluctuated. The upstream price support weakened, and the inventory was at a high level. Look for opportunities to short [9] - **Tin**: LME tin rose. Pay attention to the domestic supply - demand game. Hold high - level short positions [10] - **Manganese Silicon**: The price fluctuated narrowly. The supply - demand was relatively balanced, and attention should be paid to the support at 5800 [18] - **Silicon Iron**: The price fluctuated narrowly. The supply increased slightly, and it followed the trend of manganese silicon [19] Chemicals - **Carbonate Lithium**: It opened lower and fluctuated. The futures price was at a reasonable level. Try to go long with a light position in the short - term [11] - **Polysilicon**: The price fluctuated sharply and corrected. The PS2509 contract is expected to fluctuate widely in the range of 46000 - 47000 yuan/ton [12] - **Industrial Silicon**: The futures price fluctuated downward. The supply pressure remained, and it was expected to fluctuate weakly in the short - term [13] - **Urea**: The agricultural demand entered the off - season. The short - term market was expected to fluctuate weakly [24] - **Methanol**: The port inventory increased seasonally, and the domestic supply was sufficient. Pay attention to the impact of macro - policies [25] - **Pure Benzene**: The futures price weakened. There was an expectation of improved supply - demand in the third quarter, and monthly spread band - trading is recommended [26] - **Styrene**: The supply pressure was relatively large, and the price continued to run weakly [27] - **Polypropylene, Plastic & Propylene**: The supply of propylene was expected to be relatively abundant, and the price was easy to fall but hard to rise. Polyolefin futures continued to consolidate [28] - **PVC & Caustic Soda**: PVC continued to weaken, and the short - term price was expected to fluctuate weakly. Caustic soda ran weakly [29] - **PX & PTA**: The PX and PTA prices fell. PTA continued to accumulate inventory, and there was a driving force for processing margin repair in the medium - term [30] - **Ethylene Glycol**: The price continued to decline, and the supply was expected to increase [31] - **Short - fiber & Bottle - grade Chip**: The prices followed the raw materials down. There was an expectation of improved demand for short - fiber in the peak season [32] Building Materials - **Rebar & Hot - rolled Coil**: The steel price fell. The demand was weak, and the "anti - involution" cooled down. The short - term price was under pressure [14] - **Iron Ore**: The price fell last week. The supply and demand changed little, and it was expected to fluctuate [15] - **Coke & Coking Coal**: The prices declined. The supply of carbon elements was abundant, and the prices were affected by policy expectations [16][17] Agricultural Products - **Soybean & Soybean Meal**: The "anti - involution" commodities continued to correct. The US soybean was under pressure, and the market was expected to fluctuate [36] - **Soybean Oil & Palm Oil**: There was a risk of increased adjustment in the short - term. A long - on - dips strategy is recommended in the medium - term [37] - **Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil**: The Canadian rapeseed futures price is expected to consolidate. A wait - and - see strategy is recommended in the short - term [38] - **Soybean No.1**: The price fluctuated and corrected. Pay attention to the weather in the US and Northeast China [39] - **Corn**: The corn futures price continued to fluctuate weakly. The US corn was under pressure, and the domestic market focused on the supply in the circulation link [40] - **Live Pig**: The futures price continued to correct. It is recommended for the industry to hedge at high prices [41] - **Egg**: The spot price fell. The 26 - year - later futures contracts are expected to be stronger than those in the second half of 25 [42] - **Cotton**: Both US cotton and Zhengzhou cotton fell. The downstream demand was weak, and a wait - and - see or intraday trading strategy is recommended [43] - **Sugar**: US sugar fluctuated. The domestic sugar production had uncertainties. The price was expected to fluctuate, and a wait - and - see strategy is recommended [44] - **Apple**: The futures price fluctuated. Pay attention to the price of early - maturing apples and the new - season output estimate [45] - **Timber**: The futures price fluctuated. The supply - demand situation improved, and a long - biased strategy is recommended [46] - **Paper Pulp**: The futures price fell. The supply was relatively loose, and the demand was weak. The price may return to low - level fluctuations, and a wait - and - see strategy is recommended [47] Others - **Container Freight Index (European Line)**: The SCFI European route index is expected to decline significantly this week. It is recommended to hold short positions [20] - **Stock Index**: A - shares fluctuated lower. The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in September rose. It is recommended to increase the allocation of technology - growth sectors and pay attention to low - level consumption sectors [48] - **Treasury Bond**: Treasury bond futures fluctuated. The yield curve is expected to steepen in the short - term [49]