Report Industry Investment Ratings - Polypropylene: ★☆★ [1] - Plastic: ★☆☆ [1] - Styrene: ★☆★ [1] - PX: ★★★ [1] - PTA: ★★★ [1] - Ethylene Glycol: ☆☆☆ [1] - Short Fiber: ★★★ [1] - Bottle Chip: ☆☆☆ [1] - Methanol: ★★★ [1] - Urea: ★★★ [1] - PVC: ☆☆☆ [1] - Caustic Soda: ☆☆☆ [1] - Glass: ★★★ [1] - Soda Ash: ★☆☆ [1] Core Viewpoints - Methanol is in a pattern of strong current situation but weak future expectation, with supply expected to rise significantly, which is bearish for the future market, but low inventories in the inland and coastal areas still support the market to some extent [2] - Urea's supply is at a high level, and the concentrated start of demand at the end of April or early May may drive the market to stabilize and rebound [3] - Polyolefin futures prices continue to decline, with high supply pressure in the polyethylene market and weak demand, while polypropylene has less supply pressure but weak demand [4] - Styrene has an expectation of increased supply and weakened demand, and the overall demand outlook is gloomy [6] - In the polyester industry, PTA's supply and demand are expected to decrease, and the impact of production cuts is limited; ethylene glycol's supply and demand are both expected to decline; short fiber fluctuates with raw materials; bottle chip's supply and demand are weak [7] - PVC may fluctuate at a low level, and it is recommended to wait and see for caustic soda [8] - Glass futures prices decline, and the decline space is expected to be limited; soda ash futures prices continue to fall, and it is not recommended to go long [9] Commodity Summaries Methanol - Inland production enterprises have low inventories, and the recent inland market remains strong. However, after Iran's full复产, the arrival speed of ships has rebounded rapidly, and the import volume in coastal areas is expected to gradually return at the end of this month. The high supply expectation is bearish for the future market, but low inventories still support the market [2] Urea - The futures price rebounds slightly. Supply is at a high level, and demand is affected by the season. The concentrated start of demand at the end of April or early May may drive the market to stabilize and rebound [3] Polyolefins - Futures prices decline. Polyethylene has high supply pressure and weak demand, while polypropylene has less supply pressure but weak demand [4] Styrene - The futures price consolidates narrowly. Supply is expected to increase, demand continues to weaken, and the overall demand outlook is gloomy [6] Polyester - PX and PTA fluctuate, and the impact of PTA production cuts is limited. Ethylene glycol's supply and demand are both expected to decline. Short fiber fluctuates with raw materials, and bottle chip's supply and demand are weak [7] Chlor - Alkali - PVC may fluctuate at a low level. Caustic soda production may be at a high level, and it is recommended to wait and see [8] Glass and Soda Ash - Glass futures prices decline, and the decline space is expected to be limited. Soda ash futures prices continue to fall, and it is not recommended to go long [9]

| 玻璃纯碱期现日报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 【2011】1292号 2025年4月16日 | | | | 蒋诗语 | Z00170002 | | 玻璃相关价格及价差 | | | | | | | 品种 现值 | | 前值 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | 华北报价 1250 | | 1250 | 0 | 0.00% | | | 1370 华东报价 | | 1370 | 0 | 0.00% | | | 华中报价 1180 | | 1180 | 0 | 0.00% | | | 华南报价 | 1330 | 1330 | 0 | 0.00% | 元/吨 | | 玻璃2505 | 1144 | 1152 | -8 | -0.69% | | | 玻璃2509 | 1181 | 1206 | -25 | -2.07% | | | 05基差 | 106 | ರಿ8 | 8 | 8.16% | | | 纯碱相关价格及价差 | | | | | | | 品种 | 肌值 | 前值 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 単位 | | ...

| 业期现日报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 〔2011〕 1292号 | | | | 纪元菲 Z0013180 | | | 现货价格及主力合约基差 | | | | | | | 品种 | 4月11日 | 4月10日 | 消费 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | 华东通氧SI5530工业硅 | 10100 | 10150 | -50 | -0.49% | | | 基差(通氧SI5530基准) | ୧୩5 | રેત્રે ર | 50 | 8.40% | | | 华东SI4210工业硅 | 10900 | 10900 | 0 | 0.00% | 元/肥 | | 基差(SI4210基准) | 645 | ર્ત્વર | 100 | 18.35% | | | 新疆99硅 | d350 | a350 | O | 0.00% | | | 基差(新疆) | ୧୦୧ | રેતેર | 100 | 16.81% | | | 月间价差 | | | | | | | 合约 | 4月11日 | 4月10日 | 消歧失 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | 2504-25 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - For PTA, the near - term TA load is decreasing, polyester load is stable, inventory is decreasing, and the basis is strengthening while the spot processing fee is weakening. PX domestic maintenance is being implemented, and overseas Korean plants may reduce loads or extend maintenance. Although demand may be pressured by tariff hikes, TA will maintain a de - stocking state in the short term, and the performance of spreads between months and processing fees is expected to be volatile [1]. - For MEG, the near - term domestic oil - based production is stable, coal - based production has some load reduction, port inventory is accumulating, and the basis is poor. As supply - side maintenance is implemented, it is expected to enter a de - stocking stage, and attention should be paid to long - position opportunities near the coal - based cost [1]. - For polyester staple fiber, the near - term production reduction by Huahong and Huaxi has led to a decline in the operating rate. The downstream performance is weak, and tariff hikes may affect demand. Although there are plans to restart production, the production reduction may increase, and the processing fee may be in a stalemate under the situation of weak supply and demand [1]. - For natural rubber and 20 - number rubber, the national explicit inventory is stable at a relatively low level. Thai raw material prices are high, and the subsequent tapping may increase supply. The import data from January to February was lower than expected, and the macro - environment is poor. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and pay attention to the macro - environment, domestic inventory accumulation, and subsequent tapping weather [1]. - For styrene, the prices of related products have shown certain fluctuations, and the domestic profit of some products has also changed. The performance of the industry is affected by factors such as raw material prices and market demand [1]. Summaries by Product PTA - Price Changes: From April 1 to April 8, the price of crude oil decreased by 1.4, the price of PX CFR Taiwan decreased by 15, and the PTA inner - market spot price decreased by 190 [1]. - Device Changes: Xinjiang Zhongtai's 1.2 million - ton device stopped [1]. MEG - Price Changes: From April 1 to April 8, the MEG outer - market price decreased by 6, and the MEG inner - market price decreased by 19 [1]. - Device Changes: Xinjiang Zhongkun's 600,000 - ton device reduced its load, and Xinjiang Tianye's 600,000 - ton device was under maintenance [1]. Polyester Staple Fiber - Price Changes: From April 1 to April 8, the price of 1.4D cotton - type staple fiber decreased by 185 [1]. - Device Changes: No device maintenance information was reported this week, but Huahong and Huaxi reduced production, and the operating rate dropped to 91% [1]. Natural Rubber and 20 - Number Rubber - Price Changes: From April 1 to April 8, the price of US - dollar - denominated Thai standard rubber decreased by 275, and the price of US - dollar - denominated Thai mixed rubber decreased by 260 [1]. - Market Situation: The national explicit inventory is stable, and Thai raw material prices are high [1]. Styrene - Price Changes: From April 1 to April 8, the price of ethylene (CFR Northeast Asia) remained unchanged, and the price of pure benzene (CFR China) remained unchanged, while the price of styrene (CFR China) decreased by 20 [1]. - Profit Changes: The domestic profit of styrene decreased by 430 from April 7 to April 8 [1].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The short - term trend of soymeal is a mix of bullish and bearish factors, while the long - term trend is bullish due to tariff policies. It is recommended to go long on the 09 contract on dips [3]. - Crude oil prices are weakening and mainly moving downward in a volatile manner. Attention should be paid to US tariff policies and US - Iran negotiations [4]. - The copper market is currently mainly trading on the expectation of macro - economic recession, and the price is under pressure. In the long - term, the fundamentals are still resilient, and it is expected to return to the logic of tight supply and demand after the digestion of macro - negative sentiment [10]. - The lithium carbonate market is weakening, and the possibility of positive news is low. It is recommended to wait and see, with the main contract expected to operate between 68,000 - 77,000 yuan [12]. - The asphalt market is weakening and mainly moving downward in a volatile manner. Given the tight raw materials, the asphalt cracking spread is expected to strengthen [13][15]. - The PP market is expected to move downward in a volatile manner. It is recommended to go long on PP and short on LL [16]. - The plastic market is expected to move downward in a volatile manner. It is recommended to go long on PP and short on LL, and short the 05 basis of plastic on highs [18]. - The PVC market is under short - term downward pressure [19]. - The palm oil 05 contract is under pressure and running weakly, and the soybean oil 09 contract is running weakly [20]. - The iron ore market should be treated with a weak and volatile mindset in the short - term. It is recommended to wait and see on a single - side position and hold the 5 - 9 positive spread [21]. - The rebar and hot - rolled coil markets should be treated with a weak and volatile mindset at low levels in the short - term [23]. - The coking coal market should be treated with a weak and volatile mindset at low levels in the short - term [24]. - The urea market is mainly moving weakly and volatilely, with the main contract expected to oscillate widely between 1780 - 1900 yuan/ton [25][26]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1. Soymeal - The main 09 contract of soymeal opened high and closed low today, with increased positions and a closing increase of 0.55%. - Internationally, Trump imposed additional tariffs on China. Domestically, China imposed counter - tariffs on the US. The soybean import supply has reached an inflection point, and the pressure is prominent. - The weekly soybean import volume of crushers is 1202,500 tons, a slight decrease of 2.63% from the previous week. The weekly output of soymeal is 813,700 tons, a decrease of 14.36% from the previous week. The weekly apparent demand has increased by 3.29%, and the inventory has decreased by 22.58% [3]. 3.2. Crude Oil - Trump signed an executive order to set a 10% "minimum benchmark tariff" on trading partners. The benchmark tariff took effect on April 5th, and the reciprocal tariff on April 9th. - OPEC+ decided to increase production by 411,000 barrels per day starting from May. Trump said the US will negotiate directly with Iran. - The market is worried about the global economy, and crude oil prices are weakening [4]. 3.3. Futures Market Overview - As of the close on April 9th, most domestic futures main contracts declined. Shipping to Europe and PX fell by more than 6%, while eggs, ferrosilicon, and Shanghai gold rose by nearly 2%. - Stock index futures and treasury bond futures generally rose [6]. 3.4. Capital Flows - As of 15:19, funds flowed into Shanghai gold 2506 (1.515 billion yuan), 30 - year treasury bonds 2506 (493 million yuan), and soybean oil 2509 (256 million yuan). - Funds flowed out of Shanghai copper 2505 (2.974 billion yuan), PTA2505 (1.507 billion yuan), and ethylene glycol 2505 (959 million yuan) [8]. 3.5. Copper - Shanghai copper opened high and closed down today. The market is pessimistic about the economic outlook due to the trade war, and copper prices are under pressure. - In the long - term, the supply is expected to be tight, and the demand is improving. The copper market is expected to return to the logic of tight supply and demand [10]. 3.6. Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate market opened with slight fluctuations and strengthened in the afternoon. The price is affected by US tariff policies. - In March 2025, the domestic production increased by 25.2% month - on - month, and the planned production in April decreased by 4.6% month - on - month. The inventory increased by 1477 tons week - on - week [12]. 3.7. Asphalt - The asphalt production rate continued to decline. The downstream demand is recovering slowly, and the inventory is at a low level. - Affected by US tariff policies and the decline in crude oil prices, asphalt prices are weakening [13][15]. 3.8. PP - The downstream PP开工率 is basically stable at a low level. The enterprise开工率 has increased, and the production ratio of standard products has decreased. - The inventory has decreased, but the market is expected to move downward due to trade war concerns [16]. 3.9. Plastic - The plastic开工率 has decreased. The downstream demand is still at a low level, and the inventory has decreased. - Affected by US tariff policies and the decline in crude oil prices, the market is expected to move downward [18]. 3.10. PVC - The PVC开工率 has slightly decreased, and the downstream demand is weak. The inventory is still high. - Affected by US tariff policies and the Indian anti - dumping policy, PVC prices are under pressure [19]. 3.11. Oils and Fats - The oils and fats sector fell today. Palm oil production in Malaysia increased in March, and Indonesia will adjust export taxes. - In China, palm oil import profits are inverted, and the demand is low. Soybean oil production has decreased, and the inventory has decreased. Rapeseed oil inventory is high [20]. 3.12. Iron Ore - The iron ore market is affected by tariff policies and trade conflicts. The short - term fundamentals have some support, but the 09 contract is under pressure [21]. 3.13. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - The rebar and hot - rolled coil markets are affected by trade conflicts. The demand is weak, and the export is expected to decline in the long - term. They are expected to move weakly at low levels [23]. 3.14. Coking Coal - The coking coal market has a loose supply - demand pattern. The spot market sentiment has improved slightly, but the price is still under pressure due to macro risks [24]. 3.15. Urea - The urea supply is stable, and the demand is weak. The market is expected to move weakly and volatilely, with the main contract operating between 1780 - 1900 yuan/ton [25][26].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints - Crude oil drags down EB, causing a cost-driven decline. The price fluctuations are mainly driven by crude oil. The two-stage spread of pure benzene processing fee and styrene processing profit is expected to fluctuate within a range, and there are currently few contradictions in the industrial chain [1][2] - It is recommended to conduct cautious short hedging [3] Summary by Directory EB& Pure Benzene Basis Structure and Related Spreads - Pure benzene port inventory is 140,500 tons (-500 tons), CFR China processing fee is 219 dollars/ton (-1 dollar/ton), FOB Korea processing fee is 198 dollars/ton (-1 dollar/ton), US-Korea spread is -78.8 dollars/ton (-57.4 dollars/ton), still closed. The spread between East China pure benzene spot and M2 is 45 yuan/ton (+120 yuan/ton) [1] - Styrene's main basis is 56 yuan/ton (-169 yuan/ton), still strong; non-integrated production profit is -250 yuan/ton (+43 yuan/ton), expected to gradually compress [1] EB& Pure Benzene开工 Inventory - Pure benzene port inventory is gradually reaching the bottom, continuing to fluctuate within a range. With the decline in downstream pick-up, there is a possibility of re-accumulation. The pure benzene processing fee is weak [2] - In April, there are more styrene overhauls, the decline rate of styrene factory inventory has further accelerated, and this week, styrene port inventory has also continued to decline. Styrene processing profit has a rebound driver [2] - Styrene port inventory is 119,000 tons (-27,600 tons), commercial inventory is 83,000 tons (-15,100 tons), in the inventory rebuilding stage. The styrene operating rate is 73.3% (-2.0%) [1] Downstream Operating Rate and Production Profit - EPS production profit is 844 yuan/ton (+614 yuan/ton), PS production profit is 144 yuan/ton (+364 yuan/ton), ABS production profit is 820 yuan/ton (+467 yuan/ton) [1] - EPS operating rate is 53.61% (+2.38%), PS operating rate is 64.60% (-4.20%), ABS operating rate is 68.60% (-4.20%), and the downstream operating rate is at a seasonal low [1] Pure Benzene Downstream Production Profit - No specific data summary provided in the text, but figures for various pure benzene downstream production profits are presented, including caprolactam, phenol-ketone, aniline, etc. [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The US government's imposition of "reciprocal tariffs" has led to China's counter - measures, causing significant concerns in the market. The global economy faces a greater risk of recession, and the market anticipates further monetary policy easing. Tariffs are significantly beneficial for Treasury bond futures, while stock index futures may face pressure. Different commodities are affected by various factors such as trade frictions, supply - demand relationships, and cost changes, with varying trends and investment strategies [5][6][9]. Summary by Directory Treasury Bonds - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, Treasury bond futures closed higher across the board. The 30 - year, 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year主力 contracts rose by 1.43%, 0.51%, 0.38%, and 0.15% respectively [5]. - **Policy Impact**: China will impose an additional 34% tariff on all imported goods from the US starting from April 10, 2025. Future monetary and fiscal policies have room for adjustment, and measures will be taken to boost domestic consumption and stabilize the capital market [5][6]. - **Outlook**: Tariffs are favorable for Treasury bond futures, but considering the current low Treasury bond yields and the stable recovery of the Chinese economy, caution is advised. It is expected that the volatility will increase [6][7][8]. Stock Index Futures - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, stock index futures declined slightly. The CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000股指期货主力 contracts changed by - 0.49%, 0.10%, - 0.78%, and - 1.10% respectively [9]. - **Impact Factors**: Tariffs disrupt the domestic economic recovery rhythm, and the global recession risk increases, putting pressure on stock index futures. However, due to the low valuation of domestic assets and policy hedging space, there is no need to be overly bearish on the Chinese equity market. It is advisable to wait for short - term opportunities [9]. Precious Metals - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the gold主力 contract rose by 0.74%, and the silver主力 contract fell by 1.37% [11]. - **Impact Factors**: After the tariff implementation, precious metals first rose and then fell, possibly due to passive selling caused by global financial market liquidity shocks. The long - term value of gold is still optimistic, and it is expected to continue its upward trend after the shock [11][12]. - **Strategy**: Consider long - position opportunities or buy long - term call options after the market stabilizes [12][13]. Steel Products (Rebar, Hot - Rolled Coil) - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures fluctuated. During the Ching Ming Festival, international financial market fluctuations may drag down domestic black - series products [14]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: The real - estate industry's downward trend persists, and weak demand and increasing rebar production suppress prices. However, the peak demand season is approaching, and macro - policies may support prices. The valuation of steel prices is low, and the downward space may be limited [14]. - **Strategy**: Due to macro - factor disturbances, market volatility may increase. Investors can wait and see or focus on intraday trading opportunities, paying attention to position management [14]. Iron Ore - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, iron ore futures fluctuated. During the holiday, international market fluctuations may affect domestic black - series products [16][17]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: High iron - water production supports iron ore demand. Although the supply has increased recently, the port inventory has decreased. The valuation of iron ore is relatively high in the black - series products [17]. - **Strategy**: Due to macro - factor disturbances, market volatility may increase. Investors can wait and see or focus on intraday trading opportunities, paying attention to position management [17]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, coking coal and coke futures were weak. During the holiday, international market fluctuations may affect domestic black - series products [19]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: The coking - coal market sentiment has improved slightly, and the coke fundamentals are showing signs of improvement. However, the medium - term weakness has not changed [19]. - **Strategy**: Due to macro - factor disturbances, market volatility may increase. Investors can wait and see or focus on intraday trading opportunities, paying attention to position management [19][20]. Ferroalloys - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the manganese - silicon主力 contract fell by 0.45%, and the silicon - iron主力 contract rose by 0.13% [22]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: The supply of ferroalloys is slightly higher than demand. The steel demand season is coming, and the demand for ferroalloys is expected to pick up. However, the high inventory and potential supply disturbances in manganese ore need attention [22][23]. - **Strategy**: In the low - price range, consider long - position opportunities for deep - out - of - the - money call options for manganese silicon. For silicon iron, short - position holders can consider exiting at the bottom range [23]. Crude Oil - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, INE crude oil rose and then fell due to the implementation of US reciprocal tariffs [24]. - **Market Data**: Fund managers increased their net long positions in US crude oil futures and options. The number of US oil and gas rigs decreased, and OPEC + will increase oil supply in May [25]. - **Outlook**: The crude oil price depends on the development of trade frictions. It is expected that the price will be supported at around $60, and OPEC may take measures to support the price [26]. - **Strategy**: Consider temporarily waiting and seeing for the crude - oil主力 contract [27]. Fuel Oil - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, fuel oil followed crude oil, rising and then falling. The Asian high - sulfur fuel oil market was weak in early April [28]. - **Outlook**: High - sulfur fuel oil may face supply shortages, but the implementation of US tariffs will harm the global shipping market, which is negative for fuel oil [29]. - **Strategy**: Consider temporarily waiting and seeing for the fuel - oil主力 contract [30]. Synthetic Rubber - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the synthetic - rubber主力 contract fell by 4.04%. The US tariff has a negative impact on the cost and demand expectations, and the market is expected to be weak in the short term [31]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: The butadiene price is falling, and the production capacity utilization rate has declined. The demand for tires is expected to fluctuate slightly, and the inventory has decreased [31]. Natural Rubber - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the natural - rubber主力 contract fell by 3.18%, and the 20 - rubber主力 contract fell by 3.73%. The US tariff has a triple - path impact on the natural - rubber market, and the price lacks upward momentum in the short term [33]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: The opening of the rubber - tapping season in some areas is delayed, and the demand for tires is weak. The inventory is at a relatively low level year - on - year but is accumulating month - on - month [33][34]. - **Outlook**: There may be a technical rebound after the price drops excessively. The long - term trend depends on global trade policies and industrial chain reconstruction [33]. PVC - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the PVC主力 contract fell by 0.04%. The US tariff has limited impact on PVC imports and exports, and the market is expected to continue to oscillate between weak reality and policy expectations [36]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: The production capacity utilization rate has increased slightly, and the demand from downstream enterprises is weak. The export depends on low prices, and the inventory has increased [36][37]. - **Outlook**: The market is expected to oscillate at the bottom [38]. Urea - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the urea主力 contract fell by 0.42%. The urea market is mainly in a weak adjustment state, and the price lacks upward momentum under the loose supply - demand pattern [39]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: The daily production of urea is expected to remain around 200,000 tons. The agricultural demand is in a lull, and the industrial demand is under pressure. The inventory has decreased [39]. - **Outlook**: The market may oscillate before the start of the summer fertilizer demand. Attention should be paid to factors such as northeast replenishment demand, export policy changes, and extreme weather [39]. PX - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the PX2505主力 contract fell by 2.27%. Recently, more PX plants have been under maintenance, and the load has decreased. The downstream PTA startup has increased, but the cost support has collapsed due to the sharp drop in crude oil prices [41]. - **Outlook**: In the short term, PX is expected to follow the cost - end weakness. It is advisable to wait and see carefully, paying attention to changes in crude oil prices and supply [41]. PTA - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the PTA2505主力 contract fell by 2%. The supply of PTA has increased slightly, and the demand from the polyester industry has risen. However, the PTA processing fee has decreased, and the crude oil price has dropped significantly [42]. - **Outlook**: In the short term, the supply - demand contradiction of PTA is not significant, but there is a risk of a sharp price correction. It is advisable to participate carefully and control risks [42]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the ethylene - glycol主力 contract fell by 1.4%. The overall production capacity utilization rate has decreased, and the inventory has increased. The downstream polyester startup has risen, but the terminal demand is weak [43]. - **Outlook**: In the short term, the ethylene - glycol price is expected to be under pressure. It is advisable to operate carefully and pay attention to changes in port inventory and upstream - downstream plants [43][44]. Short - Fiber - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the short - fiber 2505主力 contract fell by 2.38%. The supply of short - fiber is at a relatively high level, and the demand from downstream terminals is limited. The cost support is insufficient [45]. - **Outlook**: In the short term, short - fiber will follow the cost - end movement. Pay attention to risk control due to significant fluctuations [45]. Bottle Chips - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the bottle - chips 2505主力 contract fell by 1.18%. The raw - material cost support is limited, the supply has increased, and the demand for downstream soft drinks is gradually recovering [46]. - **Outlook**: The bottle - chips market is expected to follow the cost - end weakness. Pay attention to changes in raw - material prices [46]. Soda Ash - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the soda - ash 2505主力 contract fell by 0.29%. The soda - ash production has adjusted at a high level, and the inventory has increased. The downstream demand is weak, and the price is stable and weak [47]. - **Outlook**: The market is still dominated by demand in the short term, and the price is subject to oscillation due to maintenance news [47]. Glass - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the glass 2505主力 contract fell by 2.44%. The number of production lines has been at a low level, and the overall supply - demand pattern has not improved significantly. The price has a certain upward momentum due to valuation repair and cost support, but the actual supply - demand drive is not obvious [48]. - **Outlook**: It is necessary to continuously monitor the inventory - reduction speed [48]. Caustic Soda - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the caustic - soda 2505主力 contract fell by 0.71%. The production of caustic soda has increased slightly, and the demand is limited. The market is mainly in a wait - and - see state, and the price is expected to oscillate [50]. Pulp - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the pulp 2505主力 contract fell by 1.91%. Some pulp mills have carried out maintenance, and the inventory has increased slightly. The downstream demand is weak, and the market sentiment is affected by the futures price decline [51][53]. - **Outlook**: In the short term, the pulp market is expected to be weak and oscillate [53]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the lithium - carbonate主力 contract fell by 1%. The supply is increasing, the demand is weakening, and the inventory is accumulating. The market is expected to be weak [54]. Copper - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, Shanghai copper fell significantly due to US tariffs. The spot - market trading was stable, and the premium increased [55]. - **Outlook**: With the escalation of the trade war, copper prices are difficult to remain stable. In the short term, it is not recommended to participate in the market or only participate with a light position [55]. - **Strategy**: Consider temporarily waiting and seeing for the Shanghai - copper主力 contract [56]. Tin - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, tin fell by 2.02%. The fundamentals have not changed significantly, but the short - term impact of macro - events has intensified. The supply shortage in the ore end still exists, and the price is expected to be supported [56]. - **Strategy**: In the short term, pay attention to risk control and wait for the release of risk sentiment [56]. Nickel - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the nickel price fell by 1.55%. The market sentiment is pessimistic due to US tariffs. The cost support is strong, but the demand is weak, and the market is expected to remain at a low level in the short term [57]. - **Strategy**: Pay attention to risk control [57]. Industrial Silicon/Polysilicon - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the industrial - silicon主力 contract rose by 0.20%, and the polysilicon主力 contract fell by 0.02%. The industrial - silicon market is oversupplied, and the price is weak. The polysilicon market is relatively stable, and the price is expected to remain stable [58][59]. Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the soybean - meal main - contract rose by 1.60%, and the soybean - oil main - contract fell by 1.18%. The US - China trade friction has intensified, and the US soybean main - contract fell on Friday [60]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: The domestic soybean supply is becoming more abundant, and the inventory of soybean meal is accumulating, while the inventory of soybean oil is decreasing. The consumption of soybean oil and soybean meal is expected to increase slightly [60]. - **Strategy**: After the short - term extreme market reaction, the market will return to fundamentals. Long - position holders can consider taking profits on rallies. If there is still an upward trend on the second trading day, consider virtual - value put options [61][62]. Palm Oil - **Market Performance**: Malaysian palm oil has fallen, pressured by the decline in CBOT soybean oil and crude oil prices. The global demand is weak due to economic concerns, and the Malaysian palm - oil inventory is expected to rise for the first time in six months [63]. - **Strategy**: Consider temporarily waiting and seeing [64]. Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - **Market Performance**: Canadian rapeseed has fallen, and the domestic market has been affected by tariff policies. The impact on rapeseed meal is greater than that on rapeseed oil. The inventory of rapeseed, rapeseed meal, and rapeseed oil has decreased [65][66]. - **Strategy**: Consider the opportunity to expand the spread after the narrowing of the soybean - rapeseed spread [66]. Cotton - **Market Performance**: During the holiday, the outer - market cotton fell by about 2.3% due to US tariff policies. The domestic cotton supply is sufficient, and the downstream demand is weakening [67][68]. - **Outlook**: In the long - term, the outer - market supply - demand is loose, and the domestic demand has reached a phased peak. The "reciprocal tariff" has a great impact on demand, and the global economic decline has led to trade shrinkage [68]. Sugar - **Market Performance**: During the holiday, the outer - market raw sugar fell by more than 3% due to the decline in global risk assets. The domestic and foreign sugar production and inventory situations are different. The short - term decline in global risk assets will drag down sugar prices [69][70]. - **Strategy**: It is advisable to wait and see [70][71]. Apples - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, domestic apple futures fluctuated. The cancellation of a delivery warehouse is beneficial, and the consumption is better than expected. The inventory is low, and the price is expected to be strong [72][73]. - **Strategy**: Consider long - position opportunities after price corrections [74]. Pigs - **Market Performance**: The national average pig price is oscillating. The demand support is insufficient, and the price is expected to remain oscillating in the short term. The 4 - month planned slaughter volume of group farms has a limited increase, and the consumption is entering the

这个周末很多股民都过的很忐忑，担心周一行情受贸易战冲击出现暴跌。 我们对美出口占比15%，加上转口贸易可能在17-18%，这部分贸易被关税壁垒挤压后，中国很大概率会 在国内执行进一步的刺激政策来对冲利空，央行择机降准降息择了那么久，估计下周要落地了。但仅仅 降准降息是不够的，我猜后续会有更大规模的政府投资，和更直接的消费刺激。 所以消费板块有机会异军突起，在这种特殊的环境下成为a股的新热点，以及那些公司主营全部来自国 内市场的公司，理论上都会有跑赢大盘的表现。比如周四涨幅最高的是养殖板块，基本是内销市场。 中国自身的消费规模占gdp大约是4成，世界上其它国家的平均水平是在6成左右。之所以我们的比例偏 低，不是因为我们的消费规模小，事实上中国已经是连续十余年的全球第二大消费市场，但问题是我们 的生产能力更惊人，全球断层领先。 目前看形势确实不太好，在中国宣布关税反制措施后，新加坡a50期指大概比周四下午3点的位置下跌了 4%，周五晚上纳斯达克中国金龙指数下跌8.87%，种种迹象表明明天早上开盘会是一个大幅跳空低开， 我判断大概在-2%到-3%区间。 低开-2%的话反弹空间其实不大的，因为稍微向上涨涨就会面临33 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the implications of the recent tariff measures implemented by the Trump administration, highlighting the potential impacts on macroeconomic conditions, financial markets, and various commodity sectors, particularly in the context of rising inflation and economic slowdown [3][4][5]. Group 1: Macroeconomic and Financial Market Impacts - The overall policy is hawkish but includes some buffer measures, such as exemptions for certain goods and a staggered implementation timeline [5]. - The market reaction to the announcement included declines in U.S. stock futures, lower U.S. Treasury yields, depreciation of the offshore RMB, and fluctuations in gold prices [5]. - The shift towards a stagflation trading logic is noted, with high tariffs and potential retaliatory measures exacerbating the macroeconomic landscape of "slowing growth + stubborn inflation" [5][6]. - The U.S. may consider further tax cuts and potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve to alleviate economic pressure [6]. Group 2: Commodity Market Impacts Non-ferrous and Precious Metals - The unexpected tariffs signify an acceleration of the de-globalization process, impacting both domestic and global demand levels [10]. - Copper is expected to remain supported due to its exemption from tariffs, while aluminum faces significant import reliance and high tariffs already imposed [11]. - Gold has been exempted from tariffs, but market volatility is anticipated due to economic uncertainties [13]. Energy - The tariff measures do not apply to imported crude oil and natural gas, mitigating potential cost increases for energy imports [15]. - The overall impact on oil demand is expected to be negative due to heightened global economic pressures from the trade war [16]. Chemicals - The tariffs are likely to negatively impact China's chemical exports, particularly in textiles and plastics, as the U.S. is a major market [22][24]. - The overall sentiment in the chemical sector is bearish, with potential declines in exports to the U.S. and increased costs for producers [26]. Black Metals - China's steel exports to the U.S. are minimal, but indirect impacts through third-party countries could affect pricing and demand [28]. - The overall steel market is expected to face pressure from U.S. tariffs, particularly on hot-rolled products [28]. Agricultural Products - The tariffs primarily affect U.S. corn exports, with minimal impact on China's domestic corn prices due to self-sufficiency [29]. - China's soybean imports are increasingly sourced from Brazil, reducing the impact of U.S. tariffs on supply chains [30]. - The tariffs on canola oil and palm oil are expected to create supply chain disruptions and price volatility in the respective markets [31][32]. Soft Commodities - The cotton market is likely to face downward pressure due to reduced competitiveness in textile exports to the U.S. [35][36]. - The rubber market may also experience negative impacts from reduced tire exports to the U.S. [37].

Report Information - Report Title: Guantong Daily Trading Strategy - Production Date: April 2, 2025 - Analysts: Wang Jing (F0235424/Z0000771), Zhang Na (F03104186/Z0021294), Su Miaoda (F03104403/Z0018167) - Report Issuing Institution: Guantong Futures Co., Ltd. Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - **Oils and Fats**: The international biodiesel policy boosts the sector, but the US policy mainly affects 2026 and later. Palm oil supply is rising but may be affected by weather, with weak demand and potential inventory accumulation. Domestic demand is weak, and the 05 contract is near - strong and far - weak. It is recommended to sell high. Soybean oil is affected by multiple factors, with the 05 contract in short - term oscillation and expected to be weak in April [3][6]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Domestic weekly production is rising, supply pressure persists, and inventory is increasing. The short - term fundamentals are bearish, and the market is expected to oscillate weakly in the range of 73,000 - 78,000 yuan [7]. - **Copper**: Market sentiment is affected by macro uncertainties, with weak supply and demand. The price is expected to fluctuate around 79,000 - 82,000 yuan [13]. - **Crude Oil**: OPEC+ is increasing production, and there are many uncertainties in the market. Although there is downward pressure, due to various factors, it is recommended to hold long positions [14][15]. - **Asphalt**: Supply is decreasing, demand is slowly recovering, and inventory is at a low level. It is recommended to hold long positions [16][19]. - **PP**: Supply and demand are in a complex situation, and it is recommended to wait and see the PP05 contract [20]. - **Plastic**: Supply is increasing, demand recovery is slow, and it is recommended to short the 05 contract basis at high prices [21][23]. - **PVC**: Supply is relatively stable, demand is weak, and the price is expected to oscillate at a low level [24]. - **Soybean Meal**: International supply pressure is high, and domestic supply is gradually improving. The 05 contract is expected to oscillate weakly [25][26]. - **Iron Ore**: Supply pressure is rising, demand growth is limited, and it is expected to oscillate in the range of 750 - 810 yuan/ton [27]. - **Rebar and Hot Rolled Coil**: The fundamentals are neutral - weak, and the market is expected to oscillate [28]. - **Coking Coal**: Supply and demand are both increasing, and it is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [29][30]. - **Urea**: The fundamentals are in a tight balance, and the price is expected to oscillate at a high level in the range of 1865 - 1910 [31]. Summary by Commodity Oils and Fats - **Market Performance**: Palm oil rose 2.04%, soybean oil 0.66%, and rapeseed oil 1.69% [3]. - **International Factors**: The US plans to increase biofuel blending, and there are weather warnings in palm oil - producing areas. Indian palm oil imports increased in March [3]. - **Domestic Factors**: Palm oil import profit is inverted, demand is weak, and inventory is low. Soybean oil production decreased, demand increased slightly, and inventory decreased. Rapeseed oil inventory is high [3]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Sell high for the 05 palm oil contract; the 05 soybean oil contract is expected to be weak in April [3][6]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Performance**: The futures price fell 1.25% to 73,723.30 yuan/ton, and the spot price was flat [7]. - **Supply - Demand - Inventory**: Supply is high with some small - factory production cuts. Demand is growing, and inventory is increasing but at a slower rate [7]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Pay attention to the spread after concentrated warrant cancellation, and the market is expected to oscillate weakly in the 73,000 - 78,000 yuan range [7]. Copper - **Market Performance**: The price oscillated and declined [13]. - **Supply - Demand - Inventory**: Supply may decrease slightly in April, demand in the peak season is less than expected, and inventory has increased slightly [13]. - **Operation Suggestion**: The price is expected to fluctuate around 79,000 - 82,000 yuan [13]. Crude Oil - **Supply - Demand - Inventory**: OPEC+ is increasing production, US production is slightly up, and global demand and inventory are complex. There are many geopolitical factors [14][15]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Hold long positions [15]. Asphalt - **Supply - Demand - Inventory**: Supply is decreasing, demand is slowly recovering, and inventory is at a low level [16][19]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Hold long positions [19]. PP - **Supply - Demand - Inventory**: Downstream demand is slowly recovering, supply is affected by new production and maintenance, and inventory is at a medium - low level [20]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Wait and see the PP05 contract [20]. Plastic - **Supply - Demand - Inventory**: Supply is increasing with new production and some maintenance, demand recovery is slow, and inventory is at a medium - low level [21][23]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Short the 05 contract basis at high prices [23]. PVC - **Supply - Demand - Inventory**: Supply is relatively stable, demand is weak, and inventory is slowly decreasing [24]. - **Operation Suggestion**: The price is expected to oscillate at a low level [24]. Soybean Meal - **Market Performance**: The price rose 0.57% [25]. - **Supply - Demand - Inventory**: International supply pressure is high, domestic supply is improving, and demand is weak [25][26]. - **Operation Suggestion**: The 05 contract is expected to oscillate weakly [26]. Iron Ore - **Supply - Demand - Inventory**: Supply pressure is rising, demand growth is limited, and inventory is increasing [27]. - **Operation Suggestion**: The price is expected to oscillate in the 750 - 810 yuan/ton range [27]. Rebar and Hot Rolled Coil - **Supply - Demand - Inventory**: The fundamentals are neutral - weak, with slow rebar de - stocking and good hot - rolled coil de - stocking [28]. - **Operation Suggestion**: The market is expected to oscillate [28]. Coking Coal - **Supply - Demand - Inventory**: Supply and demand are both increasing, but demand lacks elasticity [29][30]. - **Operation Suggestion**: The price is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [30]. Urea - **Supply - Demand - Inventory**: Supply is slightly easing, demand is affected by price, and inventory is decreasing [31]. - **Operation Suggestion**: The price is expected to oscillate at a high level in the 1865 - 1910 range [31].