炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 紫金矿业当日成交额达263亿元，位居A股第一。 | | 601899 紫美矿业 | | | | 39.50 | | +1.94 +5.17% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 已收市 CNY | | | | | | ■ 南 ▲ 自选 + ▼ | | | 港(2899):42.060(+4.06%) | | | H/A :- 4.60% | 行情分析 | | 深度分析 | | | 委书 | -97.25% 委美 | | -102万 | 主力流入 | | 1512720 万元 | | | 25 | 39.54 | 197 | | 主力流出 | | 1551621 万元 | | | 英四 | 39.53 | 459 | | 主力净流 | | 38900 万元 | | | 卖三 | 39.52 | 750 | | | | | | | 英二 | 39.51 | 343 | | (万元) | 流入 | | SER | | 委一 | 39.50 | 1029222 | | 超大 ...

财政部表示，将继续实施更加积极的财政政策，2026年财政赤字、债务总规模和支出总量将保持必要水 平，实现"只增不减"的总体支出力度和"只强不弱"的重点领域保障。这表明积极的财政政策将继续支持 经济增长和关键领域发展，同时更加注重战略性、结构优化和精准滴灌。此外，财政部还提到财政金融 协同促内需一揽子政策已经陆续发布，旨在通过协同发力，更大力度地"激发民间投资"和"促进居民消 费"。在支持科技创新方面，财政部提出了多维度培育新动能的政策举措。 整体看，在积极的财政政策、适度宽松的货币政策以及财政金融协同发力的推动下，国内经济将呈现结 构更优、内生动能更强的良好发展态势。 工业生产稳中有进，2025年规模以上工业增加值同比增长5.9%，其中制造业增加值同比增长6.4%，表 现强劲。装备制造业增加值同比增长9.2%，占全部规模以上工业增加值的比重达到36.8%。高技术制造 业增加值同比增长9.4%，已成为引领工业高质量发展的核心驱动力。在新旧动能加速转型期，虽然整 体经济仍受房地产等传统领域调整的影响，但消费市场活力提升、新质生产力加快形成，为经济复苏奠 定了坚实基础。 宏观政策积极发力 1月20日，国新办举办两场 ...

Group 1 - The gold-silver ratio is expected to drop below 50 again after January 20, 2026, indicating a significant increase in sentiment within the precious metals market [1] - The current global long-term debt cycle is entering its late stage, with structural challenges to fiat currency trust systems, leading to a surge in physical metal prices as a natural risk-averse reaction [1] - Zinc is considered undervalued as a "de-globalization" material, with demand driven by re-industrialization in Asia, Africa, and Latin America [1] Group 2 - The recent surge in metals such as gold, silver, tin, and lithium has led to many reaching historical highs, with ongoing pricing adjustments for a comprehensive bull market in non-ferrous metals [1] - The chemical industry is typically cyclical, experiencing four stages: profit upturn, capacity expansion, profit bottoming, and capacity clearance or demand improvement [1] - Capital expenditure in the chemical industry is expected to decline, with policies promoting domestic demand potentially opening up demand space for chemical products [2] Group 3 - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes enhanced carbon emission controls, which will impose constraints on supply-side growth in high-energy or high-carbon emission sub-industries [2] - The expansion of the carbon trading market is expected to reshape cost curves in certain industries, accelerating the clearance of outdated capacities and benefiting leading companies in energy efficiency [2] - The chemical industry may see a cyclical turning point upwards by 2026, transitioning from valuation recovery to earnings growth, referred to as a "Davis Double Play" [2] Group 4 - As of January 23, 2026, the latest scale of the materials ETF reached 61.11 million yuan, marking a new high since its inception [3] - The materials ETF closely tracks the CSI All Materials Index, which focuses on the "de-involution" sector, covering seven core segments including non-ferrous metals and basic chemicals [3] - The top ten weighted stocks in the ETF include leading companies such as Zijin Mining and Wanhua Chemical, with over 90% exposure to the "de-involution" theme [3]

Core Viewpoint - The petrochemical ETF (159731) is experiencing a significant increase, with a net inflow of 610 million yuan over the past 13 days, indicating strong investor interest in the sector [1] Group 1: ETF Performance - The petrochemical ETF has reached a new high with a total share of 887 million and a total scale of 910 million yuan [1] - Major stocks such as China National Offshore Oil Corporation, China Petroleum, and Yanchang Petroleum are leading the gains within the ETF [1] Group 2: Market Environment - The current macroeconomic environment is characterized by stronger production than demand, with external demand outperforming internal demand, and a loose monetary policy similar to the investment peak period of 2020-2021 [1] - In the last two weeks, stock ETFs have seen an outflow of approximately 450 billion yuan, while broad-based ETFs have experienced an outflow of over 570 billion yuan, contrasting with an inflow of about 110 billion yuan into thematic industry ETFs [1] Group 3: Investment Strategy - The current bull market is supported by a positive policy tone, with a focus on "technology + resource products" as the main investment themes [1] - The technology sector should focus on AI and semiconductors, while the resource sector should pay attention to non-ferrous metals, with potential benefits expected to extend to energy and machinery sectors [1] Group 4: Index Composition - The petrochemical ETF closely tracks the CSI Petrochemical Industry Index, which is primarily composed of basic chemicals and petroleum and petrochemical industries, accounting for over 91% of the index [1] - The top ten holdings include the "Big Three" oil companies—China Petroleum, China Petrochemical, and China National Offshore Oil Corporation—collectively representing over 20% of the index weight [1]

Group 1 - The A-share market showed a mixed performance on January 26, with the free cash flow strategy demonstrating resilience, leading to an increase in related indices, with the cash flow index rising over 1.6% and the free cash flow index up over 1.3% [1] - The largest free cash flow ETF (159201) attracted significant capital, with a total net inflow of 1.402 billion yuan over the past six days, while the cash flow 500 ETF (560120) saw over 55.66 million yuan in inflows in the last ten days [1] - Despite short-term external policy disturbances, the domestic equity market pricing remains self-driven, supported by a relatively loose liquidity environment, which continues to favor the spring market trend [1] Group 2 - The free cash flow ETF (159201) and its linked funds focus on the domestic growth potential, emphasizing financial health and sustainability, which aligns with the long-term growth and capital appreciation needs of investors [2] - The cash flow 500 ETF (560120) closely tracks the CSI 500 free cash flow index, selecting 50 stocks with positive and high free cash flow, characterized by small to mid-cap market value, lower valuations, and higher ROE [2] - The industry distribution of the index is balanced, primarily featuring non-financial sectors such as metals, basic chemicals, steel, pharmaceuticals, and machinery, with no allocation to the financial and real estate sectors [2]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry and Company Overview - The discussion primarily revolves around macroeconomic trends, inflation expectations, and the performance of various industries in the context of the Chinese and U.S. markets. [1][2][3] Core Insights and Arguments Market Sentiment - Market sentiment has improved, particularly in second and third-tier cities, indicating a recovery in market activity to about 50-66% of previous levels. [2] Inflation Expectations - A "pork-oil resonance" phenomenon is anticipated in 2026, signaling the end of deflation and a return to inflation, with a CPI central tendency expected to reach 0.5% and PPI likely turning positive in Q3. [1][3][4] Industry Focus - Industries that may benefit from the positive PPI include resource-related sectors and raw materials, while the technology sector's valuations are no longer seen as advantageous. [1][4] U.S. Stock Market Outlook - The U.S. stock market is expected to experience a rally from May to August 2026, potentially boosting related sectors such as computing power. However, the main focus remains on the implications of PPI turning positive. [1][6] PPI Impact on Industries - Positive PPI is expected to favor industries such as construction materials, non-ferrous metals, steel, and basic chemicals, while sectors like machinery, automotive, electronics, pharmaceuticals, and home appliances show strong alpha correlation but weak beta correlation. [1][7][8] Currency Exchange Rate - The Chinese yuan is projected to appreciate significantly, with the effective exchange rate expected to return to levels seen at the end of 2024. This appreciation will benefit yuan-denominated assets, including Hong Kong stocks. [1][9] Geopolitical Risks - Geopolitical risks are increasing due to the disintegration of the old international order, U.S. strategic adjustments, and rising global political uncertainties. Key areas of concern include the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the situation in Iran, and developments in U.S.-China relations. [1][10][11] Other Important but Potentially Overlooked Content Specific Industry Dynamics - The relationship between PPI and various industries has shifted, with some sectors like real estate losing their previous correlation with PPI, while others have become more competitive due to changes in consumer behavior and market dynamics. [1][7][8] Recent Developments in Geopolitical Situations - The situation in Greenland has shown signs of easing, with diplomatic negotiations taking precedence over military threats. However, tensions remain in the Middle East, particularly regarding Iran and the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict. [10][11][12][14] U.S.-China Relations - Recent developments indicate a potential stabilization in U.S.-China relations, with high-level diplomatic engagements expected to continue throughout the year. [15][16]

消息面上，在全球货币超发、美元信用危机、技术革命创新需求、区域冲突引发供应链重构等众多因素 共振下，全球大宗商品可能迎来一场远超市场预期的周期浪潮，资金战略性增配基础化工。化工 ETF(159870)盘中净申购6.7亿份，冲刺连续18天净流入。 开源证券指出，化工行情自去年7月底启动，核心是供给见顶、反内卷政策落地、机构配置启动三大拐 点共振。2025年下半年，化工多数子行业新增产能落地或增速骤降，固投与在建工程进入尾声，行业底 部明确显现。反内卷政策直击痛点，大幅缩短行业扭亏周期，提前激活行情。7月中央财经会议后，保 险等资金加速配置化工ETF，叠加板块机构持仓处于历史低位，配置行情快速启动且持续至今。 核心关注要点是供给，2021年9月行业见顶后，化工经历了史无前例的大扩产，龙头产能翻倍屡见不 鲜。当前及未来，约束供给是行情的核心要点。市场化出清已无可能，过往产能出清的三大路径均失 效：行业集中度极高，仅剩龙头互卷、内耗严重；地产大规模刺激不现实，高质量发展是主线；出口边 际效用枯竭，中国化工品全球占比超七成，替代空间耗尽且反倾销频发。若无反内卷，光伏困境或会扩 散至整个中游行业。 反内卷是最优解，标志行 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the reports emphasizes the resilience of industrial production and the rapid growth of exports, while domestic demand indicators such as consumption and investment remain weak [1][2][3] - The macroeconomic environment is compared to the investment peak period of 2020-2021, highlighting a combination of weak macro demand and loose liquidity, which favors structural investment in thriving sectors [1] - Key sectors identified for investment include technology, particularly AI semiconductors and new energy, as well as resource products, with a positive outlook for the non-ferrous metals industry by 2025 [1] Group 2 - The A-share market is gradually shifting towards high-performance stocks, with small-cap stocks showing significant gains amid ongoing sector rotation [2] - Despite high outflows from broad-based ETFs, there remains potential for market support from institutional investors and arbitrage opportunities, indicating continued market momentum [2] - Focus areas for investment include sectors with sustainable recovery signals, particularly in price increase chains, high-end manufacturing, and the AI sector, with recommendations to consider electric equipment, basic chemicals, and semiconductor equipment [2] Group 3 - The market is expected to remain volatile before the Spring Festival, with historical data indicating a less than 50% probability of major index gains in the 20 trading days leading up to the holiday [3] - Post-Spring Festival, a new upward momentum is anticipated, with higher probabilities of index gains in the following 20 trading days [3] - Recommended sectors for attention include electronics, electric equipment, and non-ferrous metals, with a focus on commercial aerospace as a theme [3]

人民财讯1月26日电，银河证券研报认为，A股市场回归慢牛趋势，板块轮动速度加快，但震荡向上方 向未改。近期逆周期调节为市场降温，反映出监管层"稳字当头"的政策信号，旨在夯实市场长期稳健运 行基础。"十五五"开局之年，宏观政策积极布局，协同打出"组合拳"，涉及结构性货币政策推出、财政 贴息加码、"两新"政策优化、计划研究制定出台未来五年扩大内需战略实施方案等。短期来看，春季行 情延续，后续板块轮动上涨概率较大，业绩基本面重要性提升。 板块轮动中关注结构性投资机会。主线一，科技创新板块。短期来看，关注细分板块之间的轮动补涨机 会。前期强势的商业航天、AI应用等主题受到产业趋势催化，但后续内部分化或有所加大。主线二， 制造业、资源板块盈利修复路径清晰。重点关注涨价逻辑下业绩支撑的有色金属、基础化工等行业，行 情或向细分板块扩散。辅助线一，政策催化下消费板块的布局机会。辅助线二，出海趋势带动企业盈利 空间进一步打开。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market experienced a divergence in capital sentiment last week, with small-cap stocks leading in gains, and industry rotation continuing. The focus is on the elasticity of capital and the direction of future rotations [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - Since mid-January, the outflow of capital from broad-based ETFs has been relatively high, but there are still inflows from insurance funds and arbitrage demands from investors, indicating ongoing market momentum [1] - The rotation direction may gradually shift from thematic investments to sectors with performance validation, as historically, industries with sustained recovery capabilities during earnings forecast disclosures tend to yield excess returns [1] Group 2: Sector Focus - Current recovery signals are primarily concentrated in price increase chains, high-end manufacturing, and AI-related sectors. Specific attention is recommended for power equipment, basic chemicals, and semiconductor equipment, with a moderate increase in allocation towards cyclical dividends [1]