Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles discusses the historical market trends in November and year-end, highlighting a shift from "pricing current fundamentals" from April to October to "pricing expectations" from November to March of the following year [1][5] - Historical data indicates that the correlation between market performance in November and fundamentals is weak, often showing a negative correlation, as October is a strong earnings month leading to a need for market correction [1][5] - The market style in November tends to favor small-cap and growth stocks while value and stability lag behind, reflecting a trend of speculative investments in smaller themes [1][5] Group 2 - The year-end market performance is characterized by a search for future economic clues, leading to a revaluation of various industries based on next year's economic expectations [2][3] - The technology and high-end manufacturing sectors are expected to continue their growth momentum, becoming key areas for economic exploration in the coming year [2][3] - The "anti-involution" policies are expected to enhance cyclical sectors, with more areas showing marginal improvement trends, providing room for valuation recovery [2][3] Group 3 - The market is anticipated to enter a more balanced phase with a focus on technology growth, compared to the previous quarter [3] - The scarcity of high-growth sectors has led to increased investor focus on AI, with public funds heavily weighted towards the TMT sector, reaching historical highs [3][6] - As earnings reports conclude, the market is expected to shift focus towards next year's performance expectations and industry trends, leading to a more active thematic investment phase [5][6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [4][7]. Core Views - The company achieved a turnaround in Q3 2025, reporting a net profit of 0.73 billion yuan, driven by rising polysilicon prices and effective cost control measures [1][2]. - The company has a strong financial structure with a low debt ratio of 8.20%, providing resilience against industry cycles [3]. - The company is positioned as a leading player in the polysilicon sector, with good cost control and financial strength expected to help it navigate through market fluctuations [4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q1-Q3 2025, the company reported revenues of 3.243 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 46.00%, and a net loss of 1.073 billion yuan [1]. - In Q3 2025, the company achieved revenues of 1.773 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 24.75% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 214.93% [1][2]. - The company's polysilicon production for Q1-Q3 2025 was 81,500 tons, down 52.3% year-on-year, while sales were 88,500 tons, down 36.4% year-on-year [2]. Cost Management - The company has successfully reduced unit costs, with Q3 2025 unit costs at 46.04 yuan/kg and cash costs at 34.63 yuan/kg, reflecting a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 20.8% and an increase of 11.1%, respectively [2]. Future Outlook - The company expects Q4 2025 polysilicon production to be between 39,500 and 42,500 tons, with an annual production forecast of 121,000 to 124,000 tons for 2025 [2]. - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 5.167 billion, 8.478 billion, and 10.746 billion yuan, respectively, with net profits expected to be -999 million, 1.420 billion, and 2.223 billion yuan [4][6].

Industry Investment Rating - Industrial silicon: Oscillation; Polysilicon: Oscillation [5] Core Viewpoints - After the previous hedging, the price decline of industrial silicon is unlikely to cause production cuts or shutdowns in the short term, but the price needs to exceed 10,000 yuan/ton to bring significant supply increments during the dry season or the next wet season. Therefore, it is more cost-effective to go long on industrial silicon at low prices [4]. - In November, polysilicon officially enters the critical point of the game between policy and fundamentals. Currently, policy trading may still outweigh fundamental trading. Those who hold long positions can continue to hold, while those chasing long positions face greater risks. They can consider buying call options to participate in the subsequent policy game [4]. Summary by Directory 1. Industrial Silicon/Polysilicon Industry Chain Prices - This week, the Si2601 contract of industrial silicon increased by 180 yuan/ton to 9,100 yuan/ton. The SMM spot price of East China oxygenated 553 increased by 100 yuan/ton to 9,450 yuan/ton, and the price of Xinjiang 99 increased by 100 yuan/ton to 8,800 yuan/ton. The PS2601 contract of polysilicon increased by 4,105 yuan/ton to 56,410 yuan/ton. The average transaction price of N-type re-feeding material of polysilicon remained unchanged at 53,200 yuan/ton [11]. 2. Industrial Silicon Cost Increase, Polysilicon Focus on Storage Progress - **Industrial Silicon**: This week, the main futures contract of industrial silicon fluctuated strongly. Xinjiang opened 1 new furnace, while Yunnan and Sichuan reduced 3 and 6 furnaces respectively. Northern large factories may continue to resume production, while southern silicon factories are expected to significantly reduce production at the end of October. It is estimated that the number of operating furnaces in Yunnan will drop to about 20 and that in Sichuan will drop to only 18 in November. The SMM industrial silicon social inventory decreased by 0.1 million tons month-on-month, while the sample factory inventory increased by 0.04 million tons. Downstream maintains rigid demand purchases. When the market declines, aluminum factories actively place orders, and the basis of low-grade industrial silicon has strengthened. During the rising stage, it is in the state of inventory consumption. After updating the balance sheet, it is estimated that industrial silicon will have difficulty in destocking in November and will destock about 1 million tons in December [2][13]. - **Organic Silicon**: This week, the price of organic silicon decreased slightly. Some devices of several companies were under maintenance or shut down. The overall enterprise start-up rate this week was 68.63%, the weekly output of organic silicon was 45,400 tons, a month-on-month increase of 0.89%, and the inventory was 44,100 tons, a month-on-month increase of 2.56%. It is expected that the price of organic silicon will fluctuate weakly [13][14]. - **Polysilicon**: This week, the main futures contract of polysilicon rose significantly. Spot prices are under pressure. Leading manufacturers maintain the price of dense re-feeding material above 53 yuan/kg, and downstream mainly purchase special doping materials at 49 - 50 yuan/kg. Considering the coming dry season, it is estimated that the polysilicon production schedule will drop to 115,000 tons in November. As of October 30, the factory inventory of polysilicon enterprises was 261,000 tons, a month-on-month increase of 3,000 tons, and the raw material inventory of downstream crystal pulling factories was 218,000 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 4,000 tons. In November, polysilicon officially enters the critical point of the game between policy and fundamentals. If the platform company is successfully established and the storage details are implemented, the polysilicon price is expected to stabilize or even rise. Otherwise, the spot price may be under pressure [3][15]. - **Silicon Wafer**: This week, the price of silicon wafers decreased. The decline is related to overproduction. It is estimated that silicon wafer enterprises will reduce production from November. Whether the silicon wafer price can stabilize depends on whether the silicon material on the cost side continues to strongly support the price and the production reduction plan in November [16]. - **Battery Cell**: This week, the price of battery cells decreased. Overseas demand declined, and the mainstream transaction price of M10 battery cells continued to drop. The production schedule decline is not obvious. Due to the exemption of basic tariffs in India for Southeast Asian origins, the M10 battery is under pressure. The high price of G12 batteries has not been widely accepted by the component side, and the price is expected to decline. The G12R model continues to have an oversupply situation, and the future price is still not optimistic. Battery factories are under increasing cost pressure due to the sharp rise in silver paste prices and are now near cash losses [17]. - **Component**: This week, the component price remained basically stable. Some centralized procurement projects have a demand for high-power components above 700W, and leading component factories have raised their quotes. It is estimated that the domestic component production schedule will be 44.4GW in November, a month-on-month decrease of 1GW. There are concerns that the component production schedule will drop significantly in December. It is expected that the component price will fluctuate in the short term, and attention should be paid to whether there are demand-side policies in the future [18]. 3. Investment Advice - **Industrial Silicon**: After the previous hedging, it is more cost-effective to go long on industrial silicon at low prices [4][19]. - **Polysilicon**: Those who hold long positions can continue to hold, while those chasing long positions face greater risks. They can consider buying call options to participate in the subsequent policy game [4][19]. 4. Hot News Summary - **Hoshine Silicon Industry**: On October 30, it released its Q3 2025 report. The company achieved an operating income of 5.43 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 23.51%. The net profit attributable to shareholders of the listed company was 75.6675 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 84.12%. Although it is still in negative growth year-on-year, the single-quarter profit index has turned positive compared with the loss situation in the first half of the year [20]. - **Daqo New Energy**: In Q3, the company achieved an operating income of 1.7726423 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 24.75%. The net profit attributable to shareholders of the listed company was 73.479 million yuan. Based on the current market dynamics, product prices, and market trends, combined with the progress of the annual routine maintenance plan, the company expects the polysilicon production in Q4 to be 39,500 - 42,500 tons, and the expected annual production in 2025 to be 121,000 - 124,000 tons [20]. - **Longi Green Energy**: On October 30, it released its Q3 2025 report. The company's operating income in the first three quarters of 2025 was 50.914 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 13.10%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was a loss of 3.403 billion yuan [21]. 5. Industry Chain High-Frequency Data Tracking - **Industrial Silicon**: Relevant charts show the spot prices, weekly production, and inventory data of industrial silicon [23][26][29]. - **Organic Silicon**: Relevant charts show the spot price, weekly profit, factory inventory, and weekly production data of DMC in organic silicon [33][34]. - **Polysilicon**: Relevant charts show the spot price, weekly gross profit, factory weekly inventory, and enterprise weekly production data of polysilicon [36][39]. - **Silicon Wafer**: Relevant charts show the spot price, profit calculation, factory weekly inventory, and enterprise weekly production data of silicon wafers [41][46]. - **Battery Cell**: Relevant charts show the spot price, profit calculation, export factory weekly inventory, and enterprise monthly production data of battery cells [47][52][53]. - **Component**: Relevant charts show the spot price, profit calculation, finished product inventory, and enterprise monthly production data of components [55][61][62].

Report Overview - Report Title: Industrial Silicon Monthly Report - Date: November 01, 2025 - Investment Rating: Not provided - Core Viewpoint: Industrial silicon lacks continuous policy support. The supply-demand imbalance persists, with high inventory levels. The price of the 01 contract is expected to operate cautiously and strongly in the range of 8,500 - 10,000 yuan/ton, but the resistance to rebound above 9,000 yuan/ton increases. Unilateral operation has an unfavorable risk-reward ratio, so it is advisable to wait and see [5][20][21]. 1. Industrial Silicon Market Review and Outlook 1.1 Market Review - Price Fluctuations: The fluctuations in industrial silicon futures and spot prices have significantly decreased. Without policy support, the prices have reached a stalemate. In October, the spot prices remained stable, and the futures prices fluctuated within a range. The monthly closing price of Si2511 was 8,700 yuan/ton, with a monthly increase of 0.69%, and the trading volume was 2.444 million lots, with an open interest of 7,516 lots. The monthly closing price of Si2601 was 9,100 yuan/ton, with a monthly increase of 1.45%, and the trading volume was 2.616 million lots, with an open interest of 229,000 lots, a net increase of 135,000 lots [19]. 1.2 November Outlook - Policy and Demand: Industrial silicon lacks continuous policy support, and the anti-"involution" production cuts in polysilicon are actually negative for the demand side of industrial silicon. The production cuts in the later fourth quarter need further observation [20]. - Supply and Demand: In October, the expected production of industrial silicon was 420,000 tons, while the total demand was 400,250 tons. The supply-demand imbalance has not been reversed. As of the end of October, the industry inventory was 447,700 tons, and the futures inventory was 237,000 tons, totaling 684,700 tons. High inventory accumulation is difficult to reverse [20]. - Price Forecast: The 01 contract price is expected to operate cautiously and strongly in the range of 8,500 - 10,000 yuan/ton, and the resistance to rebound above 9,000 yuan/ton increases. It is advisable to continue using the idea of bottom support and rebound at the lower edge of the range, but unilateral operation has an unfavorable risk-reward ratio [20][21]. 2. Supply Side - Production Statistics: From January to September 2025, the cumulative production of industrial silicon was 2.9345 million tons, a cumulative year-on-year decrease of 16.89%, with an average monthly production of 326,100 tons. The northern regions, except Xinjiang, showed a significant production increase trend, while the southwestern regions continued to reduce production [23]. - Profit and Production Willingness: The profit window for industrial silicon has opened, and enterprises have a strong willingness to increase production. In October, the single-ton cost was 9,093.38 yuan/ton, and the single-ton profit was 179.71 yuan/ton, a slight increase from the previous month. The power price in the southwestern regions is about to rise, which will support the silicon price [23]. - October Production: In October, industrial silicon production continued to grow. The anti-involution policy did not lead to the elimination of backward production capacity. As of the end of October, the total number of furnaces was 796, the number of operating furnaces was 320, and the operating rate was 40.20%. The weekly production gradually increased, mainly due to the resumption of production in large factories in Xinjiang [24]. 3. Demand Side 3.1 Import and Export - Export: In September, the export volume of industrial silicon decreased slightly. From January to September, the cumulative export volume was 561,600 tons, a cumulative year-on-year increase of 1.55%, with an average monthly export volume of 62,400 tons [37]. - Import: From January to September, the cumulative import volume was 8,601.55 tons, a cumulative year-on-year decrease of 63.55% [37]. 3.2 Organic Silicon Demand - Industry Status: In 2024, the effective production capacity of organic silicon reached 3.53 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 11.72%; the production was 2.5213 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 15.75%, and the capacity utilization rate was 71.43%. The supply-demand imbalance in the organic silicon market has not been reversed, and the spot price is still below the cost line [38]. - Demand for Industrial Silicon: The demand for industrial silicon from the organic silicon market remains stable. From January to September, the cumulative production of organic silicon (DMC) was 1.978 million tons, and the demand for industrial silicon was 1.0286 million tons. The monthly production in October is expected to remain at around 220,000 tons, with little change in the overall demand for industrial silicon [39]. 3.3 Polysilicon Demand - Profit and Production: Since the end of June, policy support has opened up profit margins for polysilicon enterprises. In October, the average production cost of polysilicon was 41,443 yuan/ton, and the theoretical net profit per ton was as high as 9,157 yuan/ton. High profits and industry self-discipline may weaken the actual effect of anti-involution production cuts [48]. - Production Forecast: From January to October, the cumulative production of polysilicon was 1.0839 million tons. In October, the domestic polysilicon production is expected to reach 137,500 tons, a month-on-month increase of 6.2%. According to the enterprise production plan, the monthly production in November - December is expected to fall back to 125,000 - 130,000 tons [48][49]. - Inventory Situation: The supply-demand mismatch in the polysilicon market persists, and the spot market continues to accumulate inventory. As of October 30, the spot inventory was 273,040 tons, a 13.33% increase from the previous month. It is expected that the inventory accumulation speed will slow down in November and December, but the industry inventory at the end of 2025 is likely to exceed 400,000 tons [49].

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating. However, it offers specific trading suggestions for different sectors and varieties: - **Financial Sector** - **Equity Index Futures**: Try to lightly sell put options at the support level or construct a bull call spread for follow - up upside potential [3]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Go long on pullbacks for the unilateral strategy and pay attention to the positive arbitrage strategy for the cash - futures strategy [3]. - **Precious Metals**: For gold, there is pressure for a further decline; for silver, it is in a volatile consolidation. Trading suggestions are based on price trends [3]. - **Black Metals Sector** - **Steel**: Reduce long positions appropriately and hold the long - coking coal and short - hot - rolled coil arbitrage [3]. - **Iron Ore**: Close long positions and observe, and consider the 1 - 5 positive arbitrage [3]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Go long on pullbacks and hold the long - coking coal and short - coke arbitrage [3]. - **Non - ferrous Metals Sector** - **Copper**: Pay attention to the support around 87,000 [3]. - **Tin**: Adopt a low - buying strategy on pullbacks [3]. - **Energy and Chemical Sector** - **Crude Oil**: Go short in the short term [3]. - **Urea, PX, PTA, etc.**: Adopt different strategies such as reducing long positions, short - selling on rallies, and spread trading according to different varieties [3]. - **Agricultural Products Sector** - **Soybeans**: Hold long positions in the 2601 contract [3]. - **Palm Oil**: The main contract may test the support at 8,800 yuan [3]. - **Sugar**: It is in a bottom - oscillating state around 5,400 [3]. - **Cotton**: It is in a range - bound and upward - trending state, paying attention to the pressure around 13,800 [3]. - **Special and New Energy Sectors** - **Glass**: Look for short - term long opportunities based on the spot market [3]. - **Carbonate Lithium**: It is in a relatively strong state, with the main contract reference range of 83,000 - 87,000 [3]. 2. Core Views - **Market Environment**: Key factors such as the meeting between Chinese and US leaders, the release of the 15th Five - Year Plan draft, and the clarification of bond - fund redemption fees have an impact on the market. Risk - preference - enhancing factors are gradually materializing, and uncertainties in the market are decreasing [3]. - **Sector - specific Views** - **Financial Sector**: Stock index futures are affected by market sentiment and policy expectations; treasury bond futures are on an upward trend as negative factors are gradually digested; precious metals are affected by geopolitical and trade factors [3]. - **Black Metals Sector**: Supply and demand factors such as production, transportation, and inventory levels affect the price trends of steel, iron ore, coking coal, and coke [3]. - **Non - ferrous Metals Sector**: Prices are affected by factors such as macro - environment, supply - demand relationship, and technical levels [3]. - **Energy and Chemical Sector**: Supply - demand expectations, cost support, and inventory levels are the main factors affecting prices [3]. - **Agricultural Products Sector**: Factors such as procurement, supply pressure, and seasonal characteristics affect the price trends of various agricultural products [3]. - **Special and New Energy Sectors**: Macro - events and fundamental factors affect the price trends of glass, rubber, and new - energy products [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs - **Financial Sector** - **Equity Index Futures**: After the meeting between Chinese and US leaders and the release of the 15th Five - Year Plan draft, the market has a short - term pullback after reaching a high. It is recommended to try light - selling put options or constructing a bull call spread [3]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: As negative factors such as bond - fund redemption fees and central - bank bond - buying uncertainties are gradually digested, the bond market sentiment is improving. It is recommended to go long on pullbacks and consider the positive arbitrage strategy [3]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold is under pressure to decline due to factors such as the meeting between Chinese and US leaders and geopolitical concerns; silver is in a volatile consolidation [3]. - **Black Metals Sector** - **Steel**: The increase in apparent demand and the alleviation of inventory pressure lead to suggestions of reducing long positions and holding arbitrage positions [3]. - **Iron Ore**: The decline in shipping and arrivals, the increase in port inventory, and the sharp drop in molten - iron production lead to suggestions of closing long positions and considering arbitrage [3]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The strength of coking - coal prices and the cost support provided by coking coal lead to suggestions of going long on pullbacks and holding arbitrage positions [3]. - **Non - ferrous Metals Sector** - **Copper**: After the realization of positive expectations, the price is in a high - level oscillation. Pay attention to the support level [3]. - **Tin**: Affected by the Fed's interest - rate outlook, it is recommended to buy on pullbacks [3]. - **Energy and Chemical Sector** - **Crude Oil**: Although the macro - sentiment has eased and inventory has decreased, the increase in OPEC production limits the rebound height. It is recommended to go short in the short term [3]. - **Urea, PX, PTA, etc.**: Due to weak supply - demand expectations and limited cost support, different trading strategies are recommended for different varieties [3]. - **Agricultural Products Sector** - **Soybeans**: Supported by China's increased confidence in purchasing US soybeans, hold long positions [3]. - **Palm Oil**: The main contract may test the support level [3]. - **Sugar**: It is in a bottom - oscillating state due to abundant overseas supply [3]. - **Cotton**: With the solidification of new - cotton costs, it is in a range - bound and upward - trending state [3]. - **Special and New Energy Sectors** - **Glass**: Affected by macro - events, pay attention to short - term long opportunities based on the spot market [3]. - **Carbonate Lithium**: With the upward shift of the price center and the realization of demand benefits, it is in a relatively strong state [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For industrial silicon, the supply - demand pattern may improve as the spot price center moves up slightly, with increased northwest开工 in the near term and southwest production cuts starting at the end of October. The industrial silicon valuation is low, and if there are relevant policies, the futures price may rise. For short - term, it's recommended to operate within a range, and for the dry - season contracts, it's advisable to go long at low prices [1][3]. - For polysilicon, the supply - demand fundamentals are average with large inventory pressure. Although the production has started to decrease recently and is expected to decline in November, the downstream production schedule may also weaken. The futures price is affected by anti - involution policies and weak reality, with large fluctuations. In the medium - to - long - term, it's suitable to lay out long positions at low prices. In the short - term, it's recommended to operate within a range [4][7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Industrial Silicon Market Analysis - **Futures Market**: On October 30, 2025, the industrial silicon futures price showed a strong and volatile trend. The main contract 2601 opened at 9145 yuan/ton and closed at 9155 yuan/ton, up 85 yuan/ton (0.94%) from the previous settlement. The open interest of the main contract 2511 was 227,764 lots at the close, and the total number of warehouse receipts was 47,410 lots, an increase of 72 lots from the previous day [1]. - **Spot Market**: The industrial silicon spot price remained stable. According to SMM data, the price of East China oxygen - passed 553 silicon was 9400 - 9500 yuan/ton; 421 silicon was 9600 - 9800 yuan/ton; Xinjiang oxygen - passed 553 silicon was 8700 - 8800 yuan/ton; 99 silicon was 8700 - 8800 yuan/ton. Silicon prices in Kunming, Huangpu Port, Northwest, Tianjin, Xinjiang, Sichuan, and Shanghai regions increased slightly, and the price of 97 silicon also rose slightly [1]. - **Inventory**: As of October 30, the total social inventory of industrial silicon in major regions was 558,000 tons, a decrease of 1,000 tons from the previous week. Among them, the social ordinary warehouse inventory was 124,000 tons, an increase of 1,000 tons from the previous week, and the social delivery warehouse inventory (including non - registered warehouse receipts and spot inventory) was 434,000 tons, a decrease of 2,000 tons from the previous week [1]. - **Consumption**: According to SMM statistics, the quoted price of silicone DMC was 10,800 - 11,200 yuan/ton. Under the background of gradually released supply - side pressure and insufficient demand - side support, the game between upstream and downstream markets will intensify, and the domestic silicone DMC price will still be under pressure and decline slightly [2]. Strategy - **Unilateral**: Short - term range operation, and for dry - season contracts, go long at low prices. - **Others**: No strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, or options operations are provided [3]. Polysilicon Market Analysis - **Futures Market**: On October 30, 2025, the main contract 2601 of polysilicon futures fluctuated. It opened at 54,900 yuan/ton and closed at 54,950 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.15% from the previous trading day. The open interest of the main contract reached 126,052 lots (118,430 lots the previous day), and the trading volume was 223,914 lots [4]. - **Spot Market**: The polysilicon spot price weakened slightly. According to SMM statistics, the price of N - type material was 49.60 - 55.00 yuan/kg, and the price of N - type granular silicon was 50.00 - 51.00 yuan/kg [4]. - **Inventory and Production**: The polysilicon manufacturer inventory and silicon wafer inventory increased. The latest polysilicon inventory was 261,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.16%; the silicon wafer inventory was 18.93GW, a month - on - month increase of 2.49%. The weekly polysilicon output was 28,200 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.41%; the silicon wafer output was 14.24GW, a month - on - month decrease of 3.32%. The polysilicon output in October is expected to be about 133,500 tons, an increase from September, and it is expected to decline in November due to significant production cuts in the southwest region [4][5]. - **Silicon Wafer**: The price of domestic N - type 18Xmm silicon wafers was 1.34 yuan/piece (down 0.01 yuan/piece); the price of N - type 210mm silicon wafers was 1.69 yuan/piece; the price of N - type 210R silicon wafers was 1.36 yuan/piece [5]. - **Battery Cell**: The price of high - efficiency PERC182 battery cells was 0.27 yuan/W; PERC210 battery cells were about 0.28 yuan/W; TopconM10 battery cells were about 0.31 yuan/W; Topcon G12 battery cells were 0.32 yuan/W; Topcon210RN battery cells were 0.29 yuan/W; HJT210 half - cell batteries were 0.37 yuan/W [5]. - **Component**: The mainstream transaction price of PERC182mm components was 0.67 - 0.74 yuan/W; PERC210mm components were 0.69 - 0.73 yuan/W; N - type 182mm components were 0.66 - 0.68 yuan/W; N - type 210mm components were 0.67 - 0.69 yuan/W [6]. Strategy - **Unilateral**: Short - term range operation. The 11th main contract will fluctuate between 49,000 - 53,000 yuan/ton, and the 12th contract is expected to fluctuate between 50,000 - 57,000 yuan/ton. - **Others**: No strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, or options operations are provided [7].

Core Insights - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) announced a total allocation of 500 billion yuan to enhance local government financial capacity and expand effective investment, with 200 billion yuan specifically designated for special bonds to support investment projects in certain provinces [3] - As of now, the 500 billion yuan has been fully deployed, supporting over 2,300 projects with a total investment of approximately 7 trillion yuan, focusing on sectors such as digital economy, artificial intelligence, and urban infrastructure [3][4] - The issuance of special bonds is expected to accelerate infrastructure investment growth to 8% to 9% in the second half of the year, as indicated by experts [4] Group 1 - The NDRC, in collaboration with various financial institutions, is expediting the deployment of new policy financial tools to support significant investment projects [3] - The first three quarters of the year showed resilience in the economy, with industrial profits increasing by 3.2% year-on-year, and prices of key products like polysilicon and lithium carbonate rising significantly [4] - The issuance of special bonds has shown a clear upward trend, with 9,602 million yuan issued in Q1, 12,004 million yuan in Q2, and 15,006 million yuan in Q3, indicating a growing commitment to infrastructure funding [4] Group 2 - The NDRC plans to work with relevant departments to ensure that local governments and central enterprises expedite project commencement to generate more tangible work volume and promote high-quality development [3] - The government aims to leverage special bonds and long-term treasury bonds to enhance fiscal and financial coordination, encouraging private investment and supporting public services [4]

Group 1: Natural Rubber Industry Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoint Supply -产区雨水偏多至月底,原料价格上涨,短时成本端支撑胶价,中长线供应放量预期仍在;需求 - 半钢胎企业排产稳定,全钢胎企业出货平稳但部分库存攀升;隔夜美联储对12月降息前景偏鹰,胶价短期承压,后续关注主产区旺产期原料产出及宏观变化,若原料上量顺利胶价有下行空间,若不畅预计胶价在15000 - 15500附近运行 [1] Summary by Directory - **Spot Price and Basis**: 云南国富手机胶等部分现货价格有涨跌,如云南国富手机胶涨0.34%,泰标混合胶跌1.32% [1] - **Inter - monthly Spread**: 9 - 1价差等有变动,如9 - 1价差涨3.45%,1 - 5价差跌12.50% [1] - **Fundamental Data**: 8月部分国家产量有变化,如泰国产量降0.43%,印度产量涨11.11%;轮胎开工率、产量、出口量及橡胶进口量等有不同表现,如8月国内轮胎产量涨9.10%,9月轮胎出口量降10.65% [1] - **Inventory Change**: 保税区库存等有增减,如保税区库存降1.20%,上期所厂库期货库存涨6.28% [1] Group 2: Log Industry Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoint 本周供应端到港量大增,但下游订单不足,周边港口价格下行,市场承压;盘面价格处相对低位,内外盘价格倒挂形成进口成本支撑,限制下方空间,供需双弱格局下,原木期货盘面预计仍将维持偏弱震荡运行 [3] Summary by Directory - **Futures and Spot Prices**: 原木期货部分合约价格下跌,如主力LG2601跌1元/立方米;部分现货价格下降,如江苏4米中A辐射松价格降10元/方 [3] - **Cost**: 人民币兑美元汇率及进口理论成本变化小,分别涨0%和0% [3] - **Supply**: 港口发运量和离港船数增加,如新西兰→中日韩港口发运量涨6.00%,离港船数涨4.55% [3] - **Inventory**: 全国针叶原木总库存减少,日均出库量增加,如库存降2.74%,出库量增2% [3] Group 3: Glass and Soda Ash Industry Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoint - **Soda Ash**: 宏观因素使商品盘面利空,前期反弹停止;周产高位,刚需过剩,厂家库存转移至中下游;中期下游产能无大幅增量,需求延续刚需格局,供需承压;阶段性利空基本出尽,建议前期空单止盈离场,短期观望,等待反弹空机会 [4] - **Glass**: 宏观因素使商品盘面利空,前期反弹停止;前几日玻璃现货产销转暖带动盘面反弹,中下游补库,期现商采购积极;深加工订单季节性好转但仍弱,地产周期底部竣工缩量,行业需产能出清;前期盘面下跌利空基本兑现,建议前期空单离场,关注现货捕捉短多机会 [4] Summary by Directory - **Glass - related Prices and Spreads**: 玻璃部分合约价格下跌,如玻璃2505跌2.81%,玻璃2509跌2.21% [4] - **Soda Ash - related Prices and Spreads**: 纯碱部分合约价格下跌,如纯碱2505跌1.71%,纯碱2509跌1.34% [4] - **Supply**: 纯碱开工率和周产量下降,光伏日熔量下降,如纯碱开工率降1.72%,周产量降1.71%,光伏日熔量降0.84% [4] - **Inventory**: 玻璃厂库和纯碱厂库库存增加,纯碱交割库库存减少,如玻璃厂库增4.72%,纯碱厂库增2.54%,纯碱交割库降3.18% [4] - **Real Estate Data**: 新开工面积等有变化,如新开工面积涨幅0.09%,施工面积降2.43% [4] Group 4: Industrial Silicone Industry Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoint 工业硅现货价格上涨,期货价格先涨后回落;周度供应端产量增加,需求端产量下降或致累库施压价格;华东套利窗口打开或带来套保机会;焦煤价格上涨或带动期价;工业硅供应增加使价格承压,但有成本支撑,预计低位震荡,价格波动区间8500 - 9500元/吨 [5] Summary by Directory - **Spot Price and Main Contract Basis**: 华东通氧SI5530等现货价格上涨,如华东通氧SI5530涨1.07%,华东SI4210涨0.52% [5] - **Inter - monthly Spread**: 部分合约价差有变动,如2512 - 2601价差涨200.00%,2601 - 2602价差跌66.67% [5] - **Fundamental Data**: 全国和部分地区工业硅产量、开工率有变化,如全国工业硅产量涨9.10%,新疆开工率涨22.09%;有机硅DMC等产量有增减,如有机硅DMC产量降5.78%,再生铝合金产量涨7.48% [5] - **Inventory Change**: 新疆厂库等库存有增减,如新疆厂库库存降0.28%,云南厂库库存涨1.47% [5] Group 5: Polysilicon Industry Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoint 多晶硅现货价格小幅下跌,期货价格震荡下跌;供应端11月产量有望下降,周度产量和硅片产量均有3 - 4%降幅;需求端硅片排产增加但下游采购减少,库存增加;多晶硅高位震荡,关注平台公司成立、产量控制及需求端订单情况;期货升水现货均价,继续大幅上涨需关注上游套保套利空间 [7] Summary by Directory - **Spot Price and Basis**: N型复投料平均价等有涨跌,如N型复投料平均价跌0.10%,N型颗粒硅平均价持平 [7] - **Futures Price and Inter - monthly Spread**: 主力合约等价格和价差有变动,如主力合约跌0.07%,景月 - 连一价差跌16.06% [7] - **Fundamental Data**: 周度和月度多晶硅、硅片产量等有变化,如周度多晶硅产量降4.41%,月度硅片产量涨5.37% [7] - **Inventory Change**: 多晶硅和硅片库存增加,如多晶硅库存涨1.16%,硅片库存涨2.49% [7]

Group 1: Report Summary - The report provides a daily analysis of the non - ferrous metals market on October 30, 2025, covering copper, alumina, electrolytic aluminum, cast aluminum alloy, zinc, lead, nickel, stainless steel, tin, industrial silicon, polysilicon, and lithium carbonate [1]. - It includes market reviews, important information, logical analyses, and trading strategies for each metal [1][2][3]. Group 2: Market Reviews Copper - The main contract of Shanghai copper 2512 closed at 87,960 yuan/ton, down 0.1%, and the Shanghai copper index increased positions by 2,982 lots to 620,000 lots. LME closed at $11,090/ton, up 0.55%. Shanghai copper spot was at a discount of 55 yuan/ton [1]. Alumina - The alumina 2601 contract decreased by 28 yuan to 2,816 yuan/ton. The northern spot comprehensive price of alumina was 2,840 yuan, up 5 yuan [8]. Electrolytic Aluminum - The Shanghai aluminum 2512 contract decreased by 10 yuan to 21,245 yuan/ton. Spot prices in East China, South China, and Central China were 21,190 yuan (up 30), 21,070 yuan (flat), and 21,050 yuan (up 10) respectively [16]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - The cast aluminum alloy 2512 contract increased by 100 yuan to 20,750 yuan/ton. The spot price of ADC12 aluminum alloy ingots in various regions remained flat [24]. Zinc - The Shanghai zinc 2512 contract fell 0.13% to 22,365 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai zinc index increased positions by 4,449 lots to 214,800 lots. The spot price in Shanghai was 22,300 - 22,425 yuan/ton [31]. Lead - The Shanghai lead 2512 contract fell 0.06% to 17,350 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai lead index decreased positions by 2,688 lots to 119,800 lots. The average price of SMM1 lead was flat at 17,200 yuan/ton [37]. Nickel - The main contract of Shanghai nickel NI2512 decreased by 40 to 120,980 yuan/ton, and the index increased positions by 3,185 lots. The premium of Jinchuan nickel, Russian nickel, and electrowinning nickel changed to varying degrees [42]. Stainless Steel - The main contract of stainless steel SS2512 decreased by 50 to 12,725 yuan/ton, and the index decreased positions by 8,627 lots. The spot price of cold - rolled was 12,550 - 12,850 yuan/ton, and hot - rolled was 12,450 - 12,500 yuan/ton [50]. Tin - The main contract of Shanghai tin 2512 closed at 283,600 yuan/ton, down 2,650 yuan/ton or 0.93%, and the position decreased by 2,185 lots to 72,249 lots. The average spot price of tin ingots in Shanghai was 284,000 yuan/ton, down 1,300 yuan/ton [55]. Industrial Silicon - The main contract of industrial silicon decreased. The spot prices of different grades in various regions remained stable [89]. Polysilicon - The main contract of polysilicon increased. The spot prices of different types of polysilicon and related downstream product prices had minor changes [90]. Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate 2601 contract increased by 980 to 83,400 yuan/ton, and the index increased positions by 36,888 lots. The spot prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate increased [76]. Group 3: Important Information Macro - level - The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points and ended quantitative tightening, but Powell's hawkish remarks on December's interest - rate cut prospects reduced the market's expectation of a December rate cut from 95% to 65% [2]. - The Sino - US economic and trade teams reached a consensus, with the US canceling a 10% "fentanyl tariff" on Chinese goods and suspending a 24% reciprocal tariff for another year [16][24][56]. Industry - level - Chile's state - owned mining company ENAMI obtained environmental approval for a new $1.7 - billion copper smelter [2]. - Some zinc mines in Southwest, North, and Central China have production adjustments such as maintenance and resumption of production [32]. - A large alumina enterprise in North China has two roasting furnaces under maintenance due to heavy pollution weather [9]. - Some electrolytic aluminum plants overseas and in China have production cuts [17]. - Some stainless steel mills plan to cut production to relieve the supply - demand contradiction in the fourth quarter [51]. - Indonesia closed 1,000 illegal mining sites [57]. - The production of some polysilicon plants in Southwest China will be reduced in November [69]. - China will suspend the implementation of lithium - battery and its material export control measures for one year [78]. Group 4: Logical Analysis Copper - Macroscopically, the dollar strengthened due to Powell's hawkish remarks, and the Sino - US leaders' meeting was slightly disappointing. Fundamentally, the supply of copper mines is tight, and the production of electrolytic copper in October is expected to decline. The consumption is weak, and the spot has turned to a discount [3][4]. Alumina - The supply and demand of alumina are still significantly in surplus. The market expects production cuts in the future, which drives the price to rebound slightly at a low level. However, the non - implementation of production cuts and the open import window suppress the rebound [11]. Electrolytic Aluminum - Macroscopically, the market's expectation of a December Fed rate cut has decreased, and the Sino - US economic and trade consensus eases the risk - aversion sentiment. Fundamentally, overseas production cuts intensify the supply - demand tension, and the domestic consumption has resilience [18]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - Macroscopically, the Fed's hawkish remarks increase uncertainty, but the Sino - US trade negotiation is positive. Fundamentally, the supply of scrap aluminum is tight, the supply of the regenerative aluminum alloy industry is shrinking, and the demand is resilient, supporting the price [26]. Zinc - Domestically, the winter storage of smelters has increased, the processing fees have decreased, and some smelters may cut production in November. The consumption is expected to weaken. Overseas, the inventory is relatively low, and the LME zinc price is strong. The domestic export window is open [33]. Lead - Some lead - storage enterprises' orders have improved, but they have reduced production due to high lead prices. The supply side may increase production as the price of lead scrap has not risen significantly. The lead price may decline [39]. Nickel - The Fed's interest - rate cut and hawkish remarks have an impact. The LME nickel inventory is slowly increasing, and the supply - demand is loose. The price is supported by cost, and it will fluctuate widely [45]. Stainless Steel - The terminal demand in October is not optimistic, and it is the end of the peak season. The supply side has production cuts, the cost support is not strong, and the price has encountered resistance [51]. Tin - The Sino - US leaders' meeting result is slightly disappointing. The supply of tin mines is still tight, and the production of smelters in September decreased. The demand is slowly recovering, and the downstream procurement is cautious [57]. Industrial Silicon - The start - up rate of silicon plants in Northwest China is at a high level, and those in Southwest China will stop production at the end of the month. The demand for organic silicon and aluminum alloy is stable, and the production of polysilicon will be reduced in November. There may be inventory reduction [62]. Polysilicon - The production in Southwest China will be reduced in November. The demand is expected to be poor, but there is still resilience. The market will be in a tight - balance state in November. The old warehouse receipts' negative impact on the market is weakening [69]. Lithium Carbonate - The weekly production has decreased, and the inventory is being reduced. The fundamentals are healthy, attracting bullish funds. The price is expected to continue rising [78]. Group 5: Trading Strategies Copper - Unilateral: The medium - term upward trend continues. Adopt a strategy of buying on dips, but be cautious of short - term pullbacks when chasing high [5]. - Arbitrage: Hold cross - market positive arbitrage and arrange cross - period positive arbitrage after the domestic inventory starts to decline [6]. - Options: Wait and see [7]. Alumina - Unilateral: There is an expectation of further production cuts in November. The price will bottom out in the short term [12]. - Arbitrage: Wait and see [13]. - Options: Wait and see [13]. Electrolytic Aluminum - Unilateral: The aluminum price is expected to fluctuate upward after the market sentiment stabilizes [19]. - Arbitrage: Wait and see [20]. - Options: Wait and see [21]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - Unilateral: The aluminum alloy price will follow the aluminum price to adjust due to macro - sentiment and then maintain a strong trend after stabilizing [27]. - Arbitrage: Consider a long - AD short - AL arbitrage [27]. - Options: Wait and see [27]. Zinc - Unilateral: Buy on dips. Pay attention to the export volume and the commissioning of new smelters in the North [34]. - Arbitrage: Advance the operation of buying SHFE and selling LME according to the export situation [34]. - Options: Wait and see [34]. Lead - Unilateral: Partially close profitable short positions. If the resumption and increase of production of regenerative lead smelters accelerate, the lead price may fall further [40]. - Arbitrage: Wait and see [40]. - Options: Exit the position by taking profit on selling out - of - the - money call options [40]. Nickel - Unilateral: Fluctuate widely [46]. - Arbitrage: Wait and see [47]. - Options: Sell a wide - straddle combination of the 2512 contract [48]. Stainless Steel - Unilateral: Recommend short - selling on rebounds [52]. - Arbitrage: Wait and see [53]. Tin - Unilateral: Fluctuate at a high level. Pay attention to the Sino - US trade relationship [58]. - Options: Wait and see [59]. Industrial Silicon - Unilateral: Hold short - term long positions and exit near the previous high [63]. - Arbitrage: None [63]. - Options: Sell out - of - the - money put options [63]. Polysilicon - Unilateral: Partially reduce long positions to take profit and buy on dips later [72]. - Arbitrage: Reverse arbitrage on far - month contracts [73]. - Options: Hold long call options [74]. Lithium Carbonate - Unilateral: Buy on dips [80]. - Arbitrage: Wait and see [80]. - Options: Sell out - of - the - money put options [80].

Report Overview - Report Title: Polysilicon Industry Daily Report 2025 - 10 - 30 [2] - Researcher: Huang Wenjie [3] - Futures Practitioner Qualification Number: F03142112 [3] - Futures Investment Consulting Practitioner Certificate Number: Z0021738 [3] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Report's Core View - In November - December, the inventory accumulation speed of polysilicon is expected to slow down, but the industry inventory at the end of 2025 will still likely exceed 400,000 tons. The downstream photovoltaic industry chain has weak demand, with component tender prices continuously falling, causing delays in centralized projects and a reduction in the demand for polysilicon from silicon wafers. Although N - type silicon materials maintain a certain premium due to the increasing penetration rate of TOPCon battery technology, the price of ordinary materials is approaching the cost line, and the industry's overall gross profit margin is narrowing. Internationally, the high inventory in the European market suppresses import demand, and while the loosening of US tariff policies drives the growth of energy storage system exports, it cannot fully offset the negative impact of the European market. However, the emerging markets such as the Middle East and Latin America show a surge in demand, buffering the decline on the demand side to some extent. The market rumor of the relevant authorities' potential policy on strengthening photovoltaic capacity regulation boosts market confidence, and it is recommended to lay out long positions after the price decline [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of polysilicon is 54,950 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton; the open interest of the main contract is 126,052 lots, up 7,622 lots. The basis of polysilicon from December to January is 70, up 20; the price difference between polysilicon and industrial silicon is 45,795 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan/ton [3]. 3.2现货市场 - The spot price of polysilicon is 52,350 yuan/ton, down 630 yuan/ton; the basis of polysilicon is - 2,640 yuan/ton, down 1,265 yuan/ton. The average price of N - type silicon wafers (210R) is 1.36 yuan/piece, unchanged; the weekly average price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon is 6.51 US dollars/kg, down 0.02 US dollars/kg [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The closing price of the main contract of industrial silicon is 9,155 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton; the spot price of industrial silicon is 9,350 yuan/ton, unchanged. The monthly export volume of industrial silicon is 70,232.72 tons, down 6,409.29 tons; the monthly import volume is 1,939.85 tons, up 602.27 tons. The monthly output of industrial silicon is 402,800 tons, up 36,000 tons; the total social inventory of industrial silicon is 552,000 tons, up 10,000 tons [3]. 3.4产业情况 - The monthly output of polysilicon is 130,000 tons, up 5,000 tons; the monthly import volume of polysilicon is 1,292 tons, up 286 tons. The weekly spot price of imported polysilicon materials in China is 6.9 US dollars/kg, up 0.01 US dollars/kg; the monthly average import price of polysilicon is 2,350 US dollars/ton, down 270 US dollars/ton [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The monthly output of solar cells is 70,873,000 kilowatts, up 1,016,000 kilowatts. The average price of mainstream photovoltaic modules is 0.74 yuan/W, unchanged; the average price of solar cells is 0.82 yuan/W, up 0.01 yuan/W. The monthly export volume of photovoltaic modules is 129,531,200 pieces, down 19,491,300 pieces; the monthly import volume is 14,733,700 pieces, down 6,706,500 pieces. The monthly average import price of photovoltaic modules is 0.3 US dollars/piece, up 0.06 US dollars/piece [3]. 3.6 Industry News - This week, the transaction price range of polysilicon N - type re - feeding materials is 49,000 - 55,000 yuan/ton, with an average transaction price of 53,200 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous week. The transaction price range of N - type granular silicon is 50,000 - 51,000 yuan/ton, with an average transaction price of 50,500 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous week. The activity in the domestic polysilicon market is low this week, with a light overall trading atmosphere. The number of mainstream signing enterprises has decreased to 3 - 4, and the order scale has decreased compared with the previous week. Currently, there are 11 domestic polysilicon enterprises in production. In October, the domestic polysilicon output was about 137,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 6.2%, 5.4% higher than expected, mainly because some enterprises slightly increased the operating rate within the limited production capacity in the fourth quarter to spread costs. The downstream operating rate remains relatively stable. As the dry season approaches in the southwest region in November, the production cost of polysilicon enterprises will increase, and some enterprises have started to reduce raw material input, such as partial bases in Sichuan and Yunnan, which have gradually reduced production recently. The demand side is relatively weak, and the demand in the downstream photovoltaic industry chain is sluggish [3].