Core Insights - Zinc Industry Co., Ltd. has seen a stock price increase of 40.21% year-to-date, with a recent price of 3.94 CNY per share as of October 21 [1] - The company reported a significant revenue growth of 23.92% year-on-year for the first half of 2025, reaching 8.913 billion CNY, and a net profit increase of 99.07% to 62.6537 million CNY [2] - The company has a diverse revenue stream, with cathode copper contributing 46.36%, zinc products 32.53%, and other products making up the remainder [1] Financial Performance - As of June 30, 2025, the number of shareholders decreased by 2.53% to 121,400, while the average circulating shares per person increased by 2.60% to 11,611 shares [2] - Cumulative cash dividends since the company's A-share listing amount to 160 million CNY, with 48.4689 million CNY distributed over the last three years [3] Shareholding Structure - As of June 30, 2025, Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited is the second-largest circulating shareholder, holding 15.5167 million shares, an increase of 7.6064 million shares from the previous period [3]

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index decreased by 1.47% to 3,839.76 points, while the CSI 300 Index fell by 2.22% to 4,514.23 points as of October 17 [2] - The SW Nonferrous Metals Industry Index dropped by 3.07% to 7,322.8 points [2] Sub-industry Performance - Among the five sub-industries in the nonferrous metals sector, the changes were as follows: - Industrial metals: -3.60% - Precious metals: +3.19% - Minor metals: -3.84% - Energy metals: -5.24% - New metal materials: -3.05% [2] Key Metal Prices - Key metal prices on the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) as of the week included: - Copper: 84,390 CNY/ton (-2.92%) - Aluminum: 20,910 CNY/ton (-0.95%) - Zinc: 21,815 CNY/ton (-2.55%) - Lead: 17,075 CNY/ton (-0.29%) - Nickel: 121,160 CNY/ton (-1.89%) - Tin: 280,750 CNY/ton (-2.66%) [2] - London Metal Exchange (LME) prices for the same metals were: - Copper: 10,607 USD/ton (+0.85%) - Aluminum: 2,779 USD/ton (+1.11%) - Zinc: 2,943 USD/ton (-1.97%) - Lead: 1,972 USD/ton (-2.43%) - Nickel: 15,110 USD/ton (-1.11%) - Tin: 35,030 USD/ton (-3.16%) [2] Precious Metals - Gold and silver prices on the SHFE were: - Gold: 999.80 CNY/gram (+9.94%) - Silver: 12,249 CNY/kg (+9.24%) [2] - COMEX prices for gold and silver were: - Gold: 4,268 USD/ounce (+6.69%) - Silver: 50.63 USD/ounce (+7.15%) [2] Lithium and Cobalt Prices - Prices for lithium and cobalt products included: - Battery-grade lithium carbonate: 74,500 CNY/ton (+1.36%) - Industrial-grade lithium carbonate: 73,000 CNY/ton (+1.39%) - Battery-grade lithium hydroxide: 77,125 CNY/ton (+1.15%) - Australian lithium concentrate: 735 USD/ton (+1.38%) [2] - Cobalt prices were: - Domestic electrolytic cobalt: 381,500 CNY/ton (+9.47%) - Cobalt sulfate: 87,000 CNY/ton (+10.13%) [2] Investment Recommendations - The market is advised to focus on leading companies in the gold and silver sectors, including Zijin Mining International, Zhaojin Mining Industry, Shandong Gold, and others due to the rising prices of precious metals [3][4]

南财投研通数据显示，10月20日，券商给予上市公司目标价共19次，按最新收盘价计算，目标价涨幅排 名居前的公司有华友钴业、紫金矿业、海康威视，目标价涨幅分别为56.95%、46.86%、33.19%，分别 属于能源金属、工业金属、计算机设备行业。 评级调低方面，10月20日，群益证券(香港)对海光信息的评级从"买进"调低至"区间操作"。 | | | 1家最新被调低评级的公司 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 证券代码 证券名称 | 机构 | 此前评级 | 最新评级 | 行业 | | 688041 海光信息 | 群益证券(香港) | 买进 | 区间操作 | 半导体 | | | | 日期：10月20日，南财投研通×南财快讯制图 | | | 首次覆盖方面，10月20日券商共给出了5次首次覆盖，其中晨光生物获得山西证券给予"买入"评级，百 合花获得招商证券给予"增持"评级，威高血净获得东莞证券给予"增持"评级，天奈科技获得东北证券给 予"买入"评级，九号公司获得华源证券给予"增持"评级。 | | | | 10月20日目标价涨幅排名 | | | | --- | --- | ...

Group 1 - Industrial metals have a high proportion in the non-ferrous sector, categorized into financial and commodity attributes [1] - The financial aspect indicates that prices of industrial metals like copper and aluminum are influenced by the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, which are expected to continue [1] - Recent supply changes include a short-term production cut of 470,000 tons of copper from the Grasberg mine due to a landslide, leading to a projected supply-demand gap of 300,000 tons in copper for next year, approximately 1.3% of global supply [1][2] Group 2 - Downstream demand is expected to rise due to significant overseas AI investments, increasing copper demand in data centers and power grids, as well as from the renewable energy sector [2] - Aluminum supply is relatively balanced, with high utilization rates in domestic electrolytic aluminum production, suggesting strong upward price elasticity if demand increases or supply is disrupted [2] - The current valuation of aluminum-related companies in the A-share market is low, with PE ratios around 10-12 times for aluminum and 18 times for copper, indicating potential for upward valuation [3] Group 3 - Overall, the supply-demand situation for industrial metals is tight, particularly with limited future capacity release, and prices are expected to remain strong despite short-term fluctuations due to trade conflicts [3] - The non-ferrous mining sector is likely to benefit from the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts and improving downstream demand [3] - The mining ETF (561330) tracks the non-ferrous mining index, focusing on resource companies, with over 50% concentration in industrial metals, gold, and rare earths, aligning with the logic of rising metal prices [3]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The report highlights the escalation of Sino-US trade tensions, leading to increased macroeconomic uncertainty and commodity price volatility [1][14] - Federal Reserve Chairman Powell indicated that the Fed may soon end its balance sheet reduction efforts, with signs of a weakening labor market emerging [2][16] - China's core CPI continued to rise, while PPI's decline narrowed, indicating a mixed economic outlook [3][17] - Freeport Indonesia may suspend operations at its copper smelter due to supply disruptions from a mudslide at the Grasberg mine, impacting Indonesia's copper smelting capacity and export plans [4][18] Weekly Market Review - The non-ferrous metals sector underperformed, with a weekly decline of 3.07%, ranking 20th among 33 sectors [9] - Key individual stock performances included significant gains for Xilai Fu (+49.84%) and Baiyin Youse (+28.54%), while Tengyuan Cobalt (-13.83%) and Bowei Alloy (-13.34%) faced notable declines [9][13] Key Focus Areas & Metal Prices - Industrial metals are expected to see price increases due to ongoing supply disruptions and potential acceleration in smelting processes [19] - Precious metals, particularly gold, reached historical highs amid renewed trade tensions [32] - Energy metals, particularly cobalt, may face supply shortages due to new export quotas from the Democratic Republic of Congo [35][36] - Strategic metals, especially rare earths, are benefiting from strengthened export controls, with a focus on mid-heavy rare earths [41] Core View Updates and Key Stock Tracking - For industrial metals, companies with integrated operations like China Hongqiao are recommended, alongside others like Tianshan Aluminum and Zhongfu Industrial [51] - In precious metals, gold remains a key asset for long-term allocation, with stocks like Chifeng Jilong Gold and Shandong Gold suggested for attention [51] - Strategic and minor metals are expected to see valuation reconstruction opportunities, with a focus on cobalt, antimony, and tungsten sectors [52]

Core Insights - The performance of the gold and non-ferrous metals sector in 2025 is significantly influenced by the dual factors of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts and external uncertainties, with gold futures prices surpassing $4200 per ounce, marking a year-to-date increase of over 50% [1] - The non-ferrous metals sector shows a mixed performance, with industrial metals facing price volatility due to tariff policies and global economic expectations, while energy metals are showing signs of recovery with narrowing price declines [1][4] - The market has seen a strong rally in the non-ferrous metals sector post the National Day holiday, with core commodities like gold, copper, and rare earths performing exceptionally well [1][4] Industry Performance - The non-ferrous metals industry has maintained high production levels and investment growth, with a net inflow of over 20 billion yuan into related stocks in the past month, indicating strong market sentiment [4][11] - The precious metals sector reported significant revenue growth, with the A-share precious metals sector achieving 188.25 billion yuan in revenue in the first half of 2025, a 27.15% year-on-year increase, and a net profit of 9.68 billion yuan, up 64.72% [5][14] - The industrial metals sector also saw revenue growth of 1.36 trillion yuan, a 3.46% increase, with net profit rising by 24.42% [5][14] Market Dynamics - The rise in metal prices is attributed to a combination of macroeconomic monetary easing policies and supply-demand imbalances, with analysts noting that the current market conditions are a sensitive reaction to these factors [1][6] - The demand for gold as a safe-haven asset has been reinforced by geopolitical risks and uncertainties surrounding U.S. government policies, leading to increased investor interest [4][19] - The copper market is particularly noteworthy, with prices rising by 13% this year, reflecting its status as a barometer for the global economy, despite cautious capital expenditure from major copper companies [7][8] Company Performance - Leading companies in the non-ferrous metals sector, such as Zijin Mining and Luoyang Molybdenum, have seen their stock prices surge, with Zijin Mining's A-share price increasing by 99.47% year-to-date [11][22] - The energy metals sector has shown remarkable recovery, with net profits increasing by 1389.34% year-on-year, indicating a shift from losses to profitability [5][14] - Companies like Jincheng Mining have reported significant production increases, with copper output rising by 198.52%, contributing to overall performance improvements [22]

Core Viewpoint - Current internal growth expectations are relatively subdued, leading investors to focus more on fundamental movements during the earnings season, seeking structural highlights through the third-quarter reports [1] Summary by Categories Earnings Highlights - Key areas to focus on in the third-quarter reports include sectors such as gold, TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications) benefiting from high AI demand, and non-bank financials [1] High-Growth Opportunities - High-growth opportunities that are less correlated with economic cycles and external risks include the AI industry chain, as well as white goods, construction machinery, and power grid equipment that are well-positioned for trade with non-US economies and have sufficient overseas production capacity [1] Supply-Side Improvements - Industries that have achieved supply-side clearing in a moderately recovering environment include industrial metals, lithium batteries, innovative pharmaceuticals, commercial vehicles, rail transit equipment, and railway and highway sectors [1]

Core Insights - The article emphasizes three investment themes to focus on during the third quarter earnings reports, highlighting the relatively subdued internal growth expectations and increased external uncertainties due to the escalation of US-China tariffs [1] Group 1: Earnings Highlights - Key areas to watch in the third quarter earnings include sectors such as gold, TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications) benefiting from high AI demand, and non-bank financials [1] - Investors are encouraged to identify structural highlights through the earnings reports, particularly in sectors with low correlation to economic cycles and external risks [1] Group 2: High-Growth Opportunities - High-growth opportunities include the AI industry chain and sectors with significant overseas capacity layout that cater to non-US economic trade, such as white goods, construction machinery, and power grid equipment [1] - The article suggests focusing on industries that have achieved supply-side clearing in a moderately recovering environment, including industrial metals, lithium batteries, innovative pharmaceuticals, commercial vehicles, and rail and road equipment [1]

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the ongoing developments regarding the U.S. government shutdown, the response to the banking crisis, and the internal divisions within the Federal Reserve, suggesting that if market risk aversion eases, precious metal prices may experience wide fluctuations [1][2]. Precious Metals - Market risk aversion is fluctuating, leading to expectations of short-term wide price swings for gold. Comex gold prices reached $4,392 per ounce and Shanghai gold prices hit 1,001 yuan per gram during the week [2]. - The Federal Reserve Chairman Powell indicated rising risks in the employment market and potential cessation of balance sheet reduction in the coming months. The banking sector is facing renewed challenges, which has heightened market risk aversion [2]. - Long-term, despite existing federal debt risks and challenges to the dollar's status, gold may continue to perform well amid a restructuring of the global monetary system [2]. Industrial Metals - Industrial metal prices are under pressure due to declining market risk appetite, but upcoming domestic meetings and renewed U.S.-China trade negotiations may improve macroeconomic sentiment [3]. - Supply-side disruptions, particularly in mining, and historically low inventory levels are expected to provide upward support for industrial metal prices [3]. - Despite insufficient demand during the peak season, the overall supply situation remains tight, suggesting potential for price increases in the medium to long term [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several companies in the non-ferrous metals sector, including Shanjin International, Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining, and Luoyang Molybdenum [5][6]. Core Views - The report highlights that the precious metals market is experiencing price fluctuations due to tariff disturbances, but the long-term bullish trend remains intact. The U.S. government shutdown and increased tariffs on China are expected to boost gold's safe-haven demand [1]. - For industrial metals, copper prices are supported by supply disruptions, while macroeconomic uncertainties may cause short-term volatility. The aluminum market is expected to see high price fluctuations due to rising interest rate expectations and inventory reductions [2]. - In the energy metals sector, lithium prices are projected to remain strong due to increased supply and demand, particularly in the electric vehicle market. However, the silicon market is facing oversupply issues, leading to price fluctuations [3]. Summary by Sections Precious Metals - Tariff disturbances have led to price volatility in gold and silver, but the long-term bullish trend is expected to continue. The report suggests strategic allocation in precious metals [1]. - Recommended companies include: Xinyi Silver, Shengda Resources, and Zijin Mining [1]. Industrial Metals - **Copper**: Prices are supported by supply disruptions from major mines, with a projected increase in price center due to mid-term supply constraints. However, short-term fluctuations may occur due to trade tensions [2]. - **Aluminum**: The market is experiencing high price volatility, influenced by interest rate expectations and inventory levels. The report suggests monitoring inventory accumulation [2]. Energy Metals - **Lithium**: The market is showing strong performance with supply and demand both increasing. The report indicates that lithium prices are likely to remain strong in the short term [3]. - **Silicon**: The market is facing oversupply, leading to price fluctuations despite being in a traditional demand season [3]. Key Companies - The report identifies key companies to watch, including: Luoyang Molybdenum, China Hongqiao, and Tianqi Lithium [5][6].