Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the industry [6] Core Views - The report highlights that the easing of US-China tariffs has led to a short-term suppression of gold prices, but the long-term investment value of gold remains unchanged [10][11] - The industrial metals sector is characterized by a tight supply-demand balance, making prices more likely to rise than fall [12][13] - In the renewable energy metals sector, lithium prices are expected to remain stable, with strategic investment opportunities still available [16][17] - The report notes a potential easing of rare earth controls, creating a bullish sentiment in the market [18][20] Summary by Sections Precious Metals - The easing of tariffs between the US and China has created a short-term pressure on gold prices, but the long-term investment value remains intact. The report suggests focusing on companies like Zhongjin Gold, Shandong Gold, and Chifeng Jilong Gold [10][11][12] Industrial Metals - The supply-demand dynamics for copper remain tight, supporting price stability. The report anticipates that the Federal Reserve's potential interest rate cuts will further bolster copper prices in the medium to long term. Companies to watch include Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, and Jincheng Mining [12][13][14] Renewable Energy Metals - The report indicates that while there may be a slight increase in export orders due to eased tariffs, the overall supply-demand balance for lithium remains weak in the short term. Strategic investment opportunities are highlighted for companies like Salt Lake Potash and Ganfeng Lithium [16][17] Other Minor Metals - The report suggests that the potential easing of rare earth controls could lead to increased prices, with companies like China Rare Earth and Northern Rare Earth being of interest [18][20]

证券研究报告 有色金属 行业定期报告 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 05 月 18 日 证券分析师 田源 SAC：S1350524030001 tianyuan@huayuanstock.com 张明磊 SAC：S1350525010001 zhangminglei@huayuanstock.com 郑嘉伟 SAC：S1350523120001 zhengjiawei@huayuanstock.com 田庆争 SAC：S1350524050001 tianqingzheng@huayuanstock.com 联系人 陈轩 板块表现： 中美关税"降级"催化，成本支撑叠加库存去化，铝价大涨 投资评级： 看好（维持） ——有色金属 大宗金属周报（2025/5/12-2025/5/16） 投资要点： 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的评级说明和重要声明 铜：铜价维持震荡，等待后续宏观催化。本周伦铜/沪铜/美铜涨跌幅分别为 +0.86%/+0.89%/-1.34%，本周一中美发布经贸会谈联合声明，实现对等关税"降级"， 受此催化全球商品价格反弹，沪铜一度反弹至 7.9 万元/吨，后续逐步回落至 7.8 万 元/吨。基本 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the metals and new materials industry, indicating a strong preference for investment opportunities in this sector [3][4]. Core Insights - The report highlights that after a short-term adjustment, gold prices remain strong, and the demand for base metals shows resilience [3][4]. - The report suggests that the current valuation of the gold sector is at the lower end of its historical range, indicating potential for recovery [4]. - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring supply and demand dynamics in the steel sector, as well as the impact of international geopolitical changes on commodity prices [4]. Weekly Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.76%, while the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 0.52%, and the CSI 300 Index saw a rise of 1.12% [5]. - The non-ferrous metals index increased by 0.61%, underperforming the CSI 300 Index by 0.51 percentage points [5]. - Year-to-date, the non-ferrous metals index has risen by 9.40%, outperforming the CSI 300 Index by 10.56 percentage points [8]. Price Changes - Industrial metals and precious metals saw varied price changes, with LME copper prices up by 0.02%, aluminum up by 2.65%, and COMEX gold down by 3.72% [4][15]. - The report notes that the price of lithium and its derivatives has shown fluctuations, with battery-grade lithium carbonate down by 0.78% [4][15]. Precious Metals - The report indicates that gold prices have declined due to influences from US-China trade talks, but the long-term outlook remains bullish due to increased central bank purchases [4][21]. - The report mentions that the Chinese central bank has resumed gold purchases, which is expected to bolster market confidence [21]. Industrial Metals - For copper, the report notes a short-term positive outlook supported by demand, despite some pressure from tariffs [4][31]. - The aluminum sector is experiencing a tightening supply-demand balance, with expectations of policy support driving demand recovery [4][48]. Steel Industry - The report highlights a decrease in steel production, but an increase in downstream demand, leading to a rise in rebar prices [4][71]. - The report emphasizes the need to monitor supply adjustments and export demand changes in the steel sector [4]. Key Company Valuations - The report provides valuations for key companies in the metals sector, indicating potential investment opportunities based on their earnings and price-to-earnings ratios [18][19].

元_20250113_173521.xlsx 金属行业 2024 年报综述：行业利润质量 已现质变，板块配置属性显现增强 2025 年 5 月 15 日 看好/维持 有色金属 行业报告 | 分析师 | 张天丰 电话：021-25102914 邮箱：zhang_tf@dxzq.net.cn | 执业证书编号：S1480520100001 | | --- | --- | --- | | 研究助理 | 闵泓朴 电话：021-65462553 邮箱：minhp-yjs@dxzq.net.cn | 执业证书编号：S1480124060003 | 投资摘要： 从十年维度观察（2015-2024），有色金属行业利润规模已实现质变。2024 年行业实现总营收 34075 亿元，十年间涨幅达 205%；同年行业 实现归母净利润 1384 亿元，十年间涨幅高达 4691%。其中，2020-2022 年间，全球量化宽松周期开启，库存周期切换叠加流动性助推下， 金属行业归母净利润由 19 年的 157 亿元增至 1818 亿元，涨幅达 1062%，行业利润实现从百亿至千亿级的跨越。至 2024 年，随着全球降 息周期的再次开启，有色 ...

2025 年 05 月 15 日 晨会纪要 研究所： 证券分析师： 余春生 S0350513090001 yucs@ghzq.com.cn [Table_Title] 晨会纪要 ——2025 年第 80 期 观点精粹: 最新报告摘要 1）2025 年，特斯拉 Optimus 机器人有望开始量产，出货量、性能表现、应用场景或者降本速度或将超市场 预期（特斯拉公开指引出货量数千台级别）； 2）2025 年，宇树、华为、智元、小鹏、小米等国产机器人产业链发展或将加速； 3）2026 年，特斯拉人形机器人有望落地月产能万台级别的机器人产线，并正式开启人形机器人的对外交付 （来源：特斯拉官网）。 特斯拉官网开放多个 Optimus 相关岗位，北京亦庄人形机器人半程马拉松成功举办——人形机器人行业 2025 年 4 月月报--行业 PPT 报告 银锡价格上行带动业绩，资源雄厚成长可期--兴业银锡/工业金属(000426/212403) 公司动态研究 2024 年业绩高增，无极品牌出海放量--隆鑫通用/摩托车及其他(603766/212804) 公司点评 国盾量子(688027)公司报告：中国量子科技领军，"一体两翼"布局 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Recommended" for the non-ferrous metals industry [5][8]. Core Insights - In 2024, the prices of major metals such as gold and copper significantly increased, leading to substantial growth in the performance of related listed companies. Precious metal prices rose over 20% compared to 2023, with major companies experiencing a net profit growth rate exceeding 40%. Copper and aluminum prices increased by 7.89% and 7.53% respectively, while industrial metal companies saw a net profit growth of over 30% [5][16][24]. - The energy metals sector faced a sharp decline, with battery-grade lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide prices dropping over 60%, resulting in a staggering 97.88% decrease in net profits for the sector [5][6][8]. Summary by Sections 1. Revenue and Profit - The non-ferrous metals industry achieved a total revenue of 3.47 trillion yuan in 2024, a 5.86% increase from 3.28 trillion yuan in 2023. The net profit reached 138.41 billion yuan, a slight increase of 1.77% from 136.01 billion yuan in 2023 [17][24]. 2. Precious Metals - The precious metals sector saw a revenue increase of 23.55% to 2909.62 billion yuan in 2024, with net profits rising by 48.24% to 122.85 billion yuan. The average LME gold price for 2024 was 2381.9 USD/oz, up 22.6% from 1942.89 USD/oz in 2023 [31][32][39]. 3. Industrial Metals - The industrial metals sector generated a revenue of 2.66 trillion yuan in 2024, an 8.17% increase from 2.46 trillion yuan in 2023, with net profits growing by 30.58% to 1083.61 billion yuan. The average LME copper price was 9146.79 USD/ton, a 7.89% increase from 8477.77 USD/ton in 2023 [43][44][56]. 4. Energy Metals - The energy metals sector's revenue fell to 155.07 billion yuan in 2024, a decline of 26.21% from 210.14 billion yuan in 2023, with net profits plummeting by 97.88% to 5.1 billion yuan. The average prices for battery-grade lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide dropped by 65.02% and 68.93% respectively [61][70][71]. 5. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends leading companies in the industry such as Shandong Gold, Zhongjin Gold, Zijin Mining, and Ganfeng Lithium, highlighting their potential for growth and recovery in performance [8].

[Table_Main] 行业研究|有色金属 证券研究报告 有色金属行业双周报 2025 年 05 月 13 日 [Table_Title] 贵金属价格小幅回调，进一步加强战略矿产出口管制 ——有色金属行业双周报 [Table_Summary] 报告要点： 行情回顾：近 2 周申万有色金属指数下跌 0.68% 近 2 周（2025.4.28-2025.5.09），有色金属行业指数下跌 0.68%，沪 深 300 指数上涨 1.64%。从细分领域看，金属新材料（5.78%）、小金 属（4.30%）和能源金属（2.56%）涨幅居前，工业金属和贵金属分别 下跌为-0.91%、-10.42%。 金属价格：贵金属价格小幅下调，铜价受供需格局影响上涨 截至 5 月 9 日，COMEX 黄金收盘价为 3329.1 美元/盎司，近 2 周下 降 0.03%；COMEX 银收盘价为 32.88 美元/盎司，近 2 周下降 0.42%； LME 铜现货结算价为 9486 美元/吨，近 2 周上涨 1.30%；LME 铝现 货结算价为 2401 美元/吨，近 2 周下降 0.46%。LME 锡 31,790 美元 /吨，近两周下跌 ...

二、全球资本流动：美元资产配置的范式转移 美联储政策转向正在引发全球资本大迁徙。美元指数自高位回落，但期权市场显示，1个月期美元指数 风险逆转指标仍显示市场对美元进一步贬值的预期有所降温。这种矛盾信号背后，是避险资金与套利资 金的激烈博弈。 DBG Markets监测到，全球资本配置策略正发生深刻转变。企业财资管理采取分层对冲策略：对6个月 内美元负债采用远期合约锁定成本，对12个月以上敞口配置零成本期权组合。同时需密切关注离岸美元 流动性指标，当前TED利差升至28个基点，显示银行间市场风险偏好趋紧。对于防御性资产配置，医疗 保健与消费必需品板块显现估值优势，市盈率分别为16.5倍和18.5倍，低于标普500指数近22倍的市盈 率。 在美联储政策立场出现历史性转折的关键节点，DBG Markets最新研究报告揭示，全球资本市场正站在 十字路口。随着美联储主席鲍威尔释放出"降息周期可能提前启动"的强烈信号，一场涉及美元资产、新 兴市场货币与大宗商品的重定价浪潮已然开启。 一、美联储政策转向：从鹰派紧缩到鸽派转向的路径图 美联储货币政策基调突变，源于对经济数据的重新评估。尽管6月非农就业新增20.6万人超出市场 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Shenzhen Upstream Industry Index has shown a recent increase, indicating potential investment opportunities in the upstream sector of the market [1] Group 1: Index Performance - The Shenzhen Upstream Industry Index rose by 1.32%, closing at 3951.01 points, with a trading volume of 16.078 billion yuan [1] - Over the past month, the index has increased by 5.14%, while it has decreased by 4.57% over the last three months and is down 0.09% year-to-date [1] Group 2: Index Composition - The Shenzhen Upstream Industry Index is composed of companies from the upstream, midstream, and downstream sectors, providing diverse investment options for investors [1] - The index is based on a reference date of December 31, 2002, with a base point of 1000.0 [1] Group 3: Top Holdings - The top ten weighted stocks in the Shenzhen Upstream Industry Index include: - Ganfeng Lithium (5.27%) - Shanjin International (4.81%) - Yun Aluminum (4.64%) - Tianqi Lithium (4.54%) - Shenhuo Co. (4.0%) - Feilihua (3.7%) - Tongling Nonferrous Metals (3.66%) - China Rare Earth (3.62%) - Zhongmin Resources (3.17%) - Tianshan Aluminum (3.13%) [1] Group 4: Sector Allocation - The sector allocation of the index holdings is as follows: - Industrial metals: 34.91% - Rare metals: 32.53% - Precious metals: 10.22% - Coal: 6.42% - Other non-metal materials: 5.57% - Oil and natural gas: 3.86% - Other nonferrous metals and alloys: 3.39% - Oil and gas extraction and field services: 3.10% [2] Group 5: Sample Adjustment - The index samples are adjusted semi-annually, with adjustments occurring on the next trading day after the second Friday of June and December each year [2] - The sample adjustment typically does not exceed 20%, with special circumstances allowing for temporary adjustments [2]

业 绩 综 有色金属行业 标配（维持） 有色金属行业 2024 年及 2025Q1 业绩综述： 板块业绩表现分化，2024 年有色金属行业稳中有升 2025 年 5 月 12 日 投资要点： 本报告的风险等级为中高风险。 本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 请务必阅读末页声明。 业 研 究 资料来源：东莞证券研究所，iFind 分析师：许正堃 SAC 执业证书编号： S0340523120001 电话：0769-23320072 邮箱： xuzhengkun@dgzq.com.cn 贵金属、工业金属表现亮眼，2024年有色金属行业逆势增长。2024年申 万有色金属行业141家上市公司合计实现营业收入34705.25亿元，同比增 长5.86%，其中98家公司营收同比正增长；实现归母净利润1384.09亿元， 同比+1.78%，其中86家公司归母净利润同比正增长。申万有色金属行业 2024年全年上涨3.19%，涨跌幅在申万31个行业中排名第17。总体来看， 贵金属、工业金属板块表现亮眼，而能源金属及小金属领域因需求低迷， 产品价格下跌，致使板块业绩下滑 ...