锡周报：中东冲突加剧，缅甸推进复产 研究员：陈寒松 期货从业证号： F03129697 投资咨询证号：Z0020351 综合分析及操作策略 截止3月13日，SMM锡锭三地社会库存总量为13357吨，较上周库存数据增加275吨。LME库存增加145吨至8775吨。 消费 锡锭现货市场成交随价格波动呈先抑后扬、随后转淡格局。价格下探至低位区间时，下游逢低集中补库，成交明显放量；价格回升至高位后，采购意愿受抑，市场重回观望， 下游以消化库存为主，仅维持少量刚需采购，整体交投受高价压制趋于清淡。 宏观面 2月份美国消费者价格呈现温和上涨态势，美国2月CPI年率录得2.4%，核心CPI年率录得2.5%，整体通胀数据符合市场预期。中东地缘局势急剧升级，成为市场核心扰动因素。 当地时间2月下旬至3月初，伊朗加大对中东地区石油及运输设施的袭击力度，加剧了市场对冲突长期化及石油供应可能中断的担忧，油价攀升，市场避险情绪高涨，同时通胀 担忧下美元也受到提振。 锡矿 精锡产量及进出口 库存 逻辑分析 宏观情绪叠加缅甸加速复产压制，下游需求订单暂未出现明显回暖，锡价承压震荡下行。 GALAXY FUTURES 1 12月份国内锡矿进 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the non-ferrous metals industry [6] Core Viewpoints - Financial attributes are under pressure, returning to supply and demand support. The ongoing Iran-Israel conflict is prolonging, leading to significant oil price increases and raising concerns about persistent inflation. In the short term, the compression of interest rate cuts is suppressing overall financial attributes, but the rising inflation level indicates that precious metals and industrial metals are gaining momentum for the long term. The actual supply and demand of various metals may determine the price floor during the fluctuation period [3][9] Summary by Sections 1. Cycle Judgment: Financial Attributes Under Pressure, Returning to Supply and Demand Support - The Iran-Israel conflict is escalating, causing oil prices to rise sharply and triggering market concerns about uncontrollable inflation. The FedWatch indicates that the market is pricing in only a 25 basis point rate cut in December 2026. The core PCE in the U.S. rose by 3.1% year-on-year and 0.4% month-on-month in January. The overall financial attributes are under pressure due to the compressed rate cut space, but the elevated inflation level suggests that precious and industrial metals are building momentum for the future [9][13] 2. Industry and Individual Stock Performance - The non-ferrous metals sector saw a decline of 3.69% in the week ending March 13, ranking 26th among all industries [19][20] 3. Precious Metals: Deepening Stagflation Expectations, Gold Prices May Fluctuate and Accumulate - As of March 13, the SHFE gold price fell by 0.68% to 1,133.00 CNY per gram, while COMEX gold dropped by 2.27% to 5,021.00 USD per ounce. The inventory of SHFE gold increased by 0.38 tons to 105 tons, while COMEX gold inventory decreased by 15.03 tons to 923 tons. The net long position of non-commercial COMEX gold increased by 0.30 thousand contracts, and SPDR gold holdings decreased by 56,500 ounces [14][27] 4. Copper: Financial Attributes Under Pressure, Seasonal Demand Still to be Tested - As of March 13, the SHFE copper price fell by 0.73% to 100,310 CNY per ton, and LME copper decreased by 0.63% to 12,780.5 USD per ton. The domestic refined copper operating rate was 72.92%, up 10.45 percentage points from the previous week. Global visible copper inventory totaled approximately 1.5416 million tons, an increase of 15,100 tons from the previous week [16][24][77] 5. Aluminum: Supply Disturbance Premium Continues, Aluminum Prices Remain Supported - As of March 13, the SHFE aluminum price rose by 0.99% to 24,960 CNY per ton, while LME aluminum fell by 0.19% to 3,439.5 USD per ton. The domestic electrolytic aluminum operating capacity was stable at 44.325 million tons, with concerns about supply disturbances in the Middle East still present. The average profit for the aluminum industry was approximately 8,822.36 CNY per ton [16][85][87]

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is based on the Iran geopolitical conflict, comprehensively analyzing its impact on major domestic futures varieties, covering dimensions such as liquidity risk, market expectations, and volatility changes [3]. - The latest development shows that due to frequent ship - attack incidents, crude oil prices have soared to around $100, intensifying the stagflation trade. Overseas markets saw synchronous declines in base metals and precious metals on Friday night, with base metals more sensitive to demand experiencing larger drops [3]. - Looking ahead, the market is gradually aware that the Strait of Hormuz may be blocked for a long - term, and the crude oil supply gap may exceed 10 million barrels per day, potentially creating the largest gap in over 40 years. In the short - term, crude oil prices may remain strong, and chemicals are generally considered for buying on dips given the reduced load of domestic refineries. For non - ferrous metals, aluminum, which is greatly affected by geopolitical conflicts, should be focused on. Some varieties in the agricultural and black sectors are more affected by the energy attribute, so changes in oil prices should be monitored [3]. Group 2: Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - The market realizes that the Strait of Hormuz may be blocked long - term, and the crude oil supply gap may exceed 10 million barrels per day, potentially the largest in over 40 years. The multi - empty intensity rating is 3, and the expected increase in implied volatility is 3 [7]. Asphalt - The disk profit is too low, and supply is continuously shrinking. Energy and chemical bears use BU to cover short positions and drive profit repair. The multi - empty intensity rating is 2, and the expected increase in implied volatility is 2 [7]. Fuel Oil - Although the price in the Singapore market dropped on Friday, there is still a spot shortage. The reduction in logistics due to the blockade will continue to materialize, and there is still support for the price. The multi - empty intensity rating is 1, and the expected increase in implied volatility is 1 [7]. Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - Despite the price drop in the Singapore market on Friday, due to the transfer of refueling demand, inventory in the Singapore area decreased rapidly. Additionally, there is a probability that domestic refineries will increase the refined oil yield, which will lead to a decline in the low - sulfur supply in coastal areas, benefiting the LU disk. The multi - empty intensity rating is 1, and the expected increase in implied volatility is 1 [7]. Methanol - There is still a strong expectation for the spot. It is expected that the price center of methanol will continue to rise before the geopolitical situation eases. The multi - empty intensity rating is 2, and the expected increase in implied volatility is 2 [7]. Para - Xylene, PTA, and Ethylene Glycol - All are recommended for buying on dips. The multi - empty intensity rating is 1, and the expected increase in implied volatility is 1 [7]. Short - Fiber - The Strait navigation has not been restored, and the reduction in actual logistics may have a long - tail effect. Refineries and PTA plants may face production cuts, still posing a risk of cost increase. Downstream raw material inventory is low. It is recommended to buy on dips and not chase the high. The multi - empty intensity rating is 1, and the expected increase in implied volatility is 2 [7]. Bottle Chips - Similar to short - fiber, there is a risk of cost increase. Spot factories have tight shipments, and near - month liquidity is tight. Pay attention to the upward risk and buy on dips. The multi - empty intensity rating is 2, and the expected increase in implied volatility is 2 [7]. Polypropylene - Geopolitical risks continue to escalate. Crude oil and propane supplies are reduced due to the shipping stagnation in the Strait of Hormuz, which has affected domestic supply. The overall import scale of PP is not high, and Middle - Eastern sources account for about 17% of the total imports in 2025, with limited Iranian sources. The shipping disruption affects near - term supply. The multi - empty intensity rating is 2, and the expected increase in implied volatility is 2 [7]. Polyethylene - The supply of upstream cracking raw materials such as naphtha and propane may be severely tightened due to the shipping stagnation in the Strait of Hormuz. Domestic cracking has started to reduce the load, and derivatives are stronger in the near - term. In terms of PE imports and exports, Iranian sources accounted for 8.4% of imports in 2025, and the proportion of standard linear products is relatively low at 2.6%. The impact on LD, HD, and LL imports decreases in turn. The multi - empty intensity rating is 2, and the expected increase in implied volatility is 2 [7]. Offset Printing Paper - OP production capacity and demand are mainly domestic, and energy price changes have little impact on the industrial chain profit. Considering the relatively low funds in the disk, there is little liquidity premium. It is expected that the disk will mainly fluctuate. The multi - empty intensity rating is 0, and the expected increase in implied volatility is 0 [7]. Synthetic Rubber - In the short - term, cis - 1,4 - polybutadiene rubber is expected to run strongly. From a macro perspective, the short - term geopolitical conflict has intensified, and energy and chemical commodities are expected to have significant valuation premiums. Fundamentally, the explicit inventory of butadiene has decreased, and under the drive of speculative sentiment, the fundamental pressure on the synthetic rubber industrial chain has decreased. Overall, the price of cis - 1,4 - polybutadiene rubber is expected to run strongly, and the geopolitical conflict may significantly increase the intraday volatility. The trading logic changes quickly following geopolitical news. The multi - empty intensity rating is 2, and the expected increase in implied volatility is 2 [7]. Urea - It is policy - priced, with limited fluctuations and an upward - moving price center. The multi - empty intensity rating is 1, and the expected increase in implied volatility is 1 [7]. Container Shipping Index - At the spot level, the actual loading list is differentiated, with greater pressure on the PA alliance and better conditions for other alliances. Shipping companies can only roll the emergency fuel surcharge into FAK, but the adjustment of FAK is chaotic. The disk 04 contract partially prices in the increase in the emergency fuel surcharge. The overall trend is still dominated by geopolitical sentiment. The multi - empty intensity rating is 1, and the expected increase in implied volatility is 2 [7]. Caustic Soda - Affected by the Middle - East situation, ethylene and propylene affect downstream chlorine - consuming products, leading to passive production cuts of caustic soda overseas, and the export price of caustic soda has risen significantly. At the same time, there has also been a reduction in the load of ethylene - based PVC in China, affecting caustic soda. However, although the domestic supply - demand contradiction is expected to improve, the disk premium is relatively large, and the overseas plant dynamics and Chinese export signing situation need to be continuously tracked. The multi - empty intensity rating is 0, and the expected increase in implied volatility is 2 [7]. Polyvinyl Chloride - Affected by the Iranian situation, chlor - alkali production in South Korea and other places has been reduced, and the production capacity of ethylene - based PVC in China has also decreased. In the future, Asian ethylene - based production capacity will face production - cut pressure. However, although the domestic supply - demand contradiction is expected to improve and the price has risen, the trading volume of PVC on the disk has not increased significantly. The core of the market lies in the impact time of the Middle - East situation. The multi - empty intensity rating is 1, and the expected increase in implied volatility is 2 [7]. LPG - The export problem in the Middle - East has not been resolved, and the supply - side problem is still expected to impact the market. There is support below PG, and attention should be paid to changes in the cost side. The multi - empty intensity rating is 1, and the expected increase in implied volatility is 1 [7]. Propylene - The import of raw material propane is blocked, and PDH plants are expected to shut down centrally. PL is still expected to rise further under the background of rising costs and tightening supply. Attention should be paid to changes in the cost side. The multi - empty intensity rating is 2, and the expected increase in implied volatility is 2 [7]. Group 3: Agricultural Products Soybean Meal - It is expected to fluctuate strongly. Last week, in addition to the impact of geopolitical events, concerns about future spot arrivals drove the disk to rise. Next week, attention should be paid to the Middle - East situation, crude oil fluctuations, Sino - US economic and trade consultations, and domestic spot sentiment. Risk control is necessary. The multi - empty intensity rating is 1, and the expected increase in implied volatility is 1 [8]. Palm Oil - The trading of the energy attribute of palm oil continues. It is reported that the Indonesian government is considering banning the export of raw palm oil and other resource products. If implemented, it may lead to a trend - like increase in palm oil. The multi - empty intensity rating is 2, and the expected increase in implied volatility is 2 [8]. Soybean Oil - The cost premium of US soybeans and the customs clearance problem of the soybean system are still the current hot topics. With the support of import costs and export profits, soybean oil can follow the upward trend of palm oil and is expected to run strongly in the short - term. The multi - empty intensity rating is 2, and the expected increase in implied volatility is 2 [8]. Rapeseed Oil - The fundamental driving force for the rise of rapeseed oil itself is not strong. It is expected to be mainly affected by the trends of crude oil and palm oil. Palm oil may rise significantly due to the remarks of the Indonesian government, which will drive rapeseed oil to rise, but the expected increase is less than that of palm oil. The multi - empty intensity rating is 1, and the expected increase in implied volatility is 1 [8]. Group 4: Black Metals Iron Ore - It shows a pattern of near - term strength and long - term weakness. From the perspective of the balance sheet, the supply - demand pattern of iron ore is loose. From a marginal perspective, the negotiation has encountered setbacks, more BHP iron ore may be locked, steel mills' maintenance has decreased and they are gradually resuming production, and the US - Iran conflict has increased transportation costs, driving the ore price to rebound. The strategy is to focus on the 5 - 9 positive spread. The multi - empty intensity rating is 1, and the expected increase in implied volatility is 1 [10]. Coking Coal - There is still an upward risk. On one hand, the recent geopolitical risk will amplify the price elasticity of coking coal. In mid - to late March, coal production and exports in Indonesia will also decline due to Ramadan, exacerbating the tightness of the overseas energy market. On the other hand, affected by the rise in energy and chemical prices, the profits of coking plants have improved, and there is an expectation of capacity utilization repair. The replenishment behavior has also intensified the tightness of the spot market for coking coal. The tightening of spot liquidity and the behavior of upstream producers hoarding goods will drive the price to rise. The multi - empty intensity rating is 1, and the expected increase in implied volatility is 1 [10]. Group 5: Non - Ferrous Metals Aluminum - Sufficient attention should be paid to the tightness of the overseas spot market. The SMM spot discounts in East and South China are relatively stable. It is reported that some spot - futures arbitrageurs are buying, and the spot - futures positive spread space is acceptable. There is also an expectation of future spot premiums. If the Strait logistics continues to be blocked, the export of Middle - East aluminum ingots and the supply interruption of raw materials will intensify. The upward strength of LME aluminum remains, which will drive the domestic market. In the past week, the disk pricing was hesitant, and aluminum may have been dragged down by the TACO expectation to some extent. While paying attention to long - position opportunities in aluminum, protective positions should also be established. The multi - empty intensity rating is 2, and the expected increase in implied volatility is 2 [11]. Alumina - It follows the energy and chemical sector, and the trading sentiment is upward. The multi - empty intensity rating is 2, and the expected increase in implied volatility is 2 [11].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a recommendation for aluminum and other price-increasing varieties to withstand macroeconomic pressures [1] Core Views - The report highlights the unpredictable nature of the Iran conflict and liquidity concerns, leading to a significant decline in market risk appetite. The probability of aluminum production cuts in the Middle East increases as the closure of the Strait of Hormuz extends, making aluminum a strong investment choice. Despite short-term macro risks, the long-term upward momentum remains unchanged, and any recent pullbacks present good buying opportunities. The report recommends focusing on aluminum, gold, and tantalum, which have high price increases and military demand proportions, as well as new material stocks related to technological growth [1] Industry Overview - The industry comprises 235 listed companies with a total market capitalization of 820.44 billion and a circulating market value of 714.68 billion [2] - The industry index shows a 1-month performance of -0.4%, a 6-month performance of +37.0%, and a 12-month performance of +77.2% [3] Stock Performance - The report notes that the largest gainers in the week include Zhongyuan New Materials (+13.54%), while the largest losers include Xianglu Tungsten (-19.94%) [3] - The report indicates that tungsten prices increased by 12.96% due to tight supply from upstream sources, while the price of praseodymium oxide decreased by 7.32% due to market sentiment shifts and supply-demand dynamics [3][4] Metal Price Trends - Copper: Domestic copper social inventory decreased, indicating a potential for continued destocking. The report anticipates a long-term bullish outlook for copper prices and copper resource stocks, while short-term focus remains on macro influences [4] - Aluminum: The report emphasizes the impact of the Middle East situation on aluminum prices, with attention on production decisions by aluminum plants and shipping issues in the Strait of Hormuz. The report notes that overseas aluminum premiums have risen significantly [4] - Nickel: The report indicates a weak fundamental outlook for nickel due to ongoing inventory accumulation, while long-term expectations remain tight [4] Precious Metals - Gold prices are under pressure due to declining interest rate expectations, but the report maintains a bullish outlook for gold, setting a target price of $6,000 per ounce for the year. The report suggests focusing on companies like Lingbao Gold and Shandong Gold [4] - Silver prices are expected to remain weak due to declining demand and market conditions [4] Rare Earths - The report notes price fluctuations in rare earth elements, with a bullish outlook for praseodymium and neodymium due to tight supply-demand dynamics in emerging sectors like new energy vehicles [4] Uranium - The report highlights a strategic shift in the EU towards nuclear energy, which is expected to increase demand for uranium in the context of rising energy prices and geopolitical tensions [4]

Market Review - Geopolitical risks remain a significant disturbance in global capital markets, with concerns over the prolonged US-Iran situation pushing oil prices above $100 per barrel, leading to a rise in domestic black commodities. Major global stock indices experienced a decline, while the A-share Shenzhen Component Index and Hong Kong's Hang Seng Tech Index saw slight increases. The total trading volume in the A-share market remained around 2.5 trillion yuan, showing a marginal decline from the previous week. Sectors with HALO trading attributes outperformed, driven by high oil prices boosting coal energy demand and the surge in wind and thermal power stocks due to synergies with computing power and energy exports [1][2][3]. Market Outlook - The evolution of the mechanism for long-term capital entering the market is crucial for solidifying the foundation of a "slow bull" market. The impact of the US-Iran conflict on global markets is shifting from short-term risk aversion to stagflation trading, with high oil prices delaying expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts. In contrast, the A-share market is currently in a phase of consolidation within a "slow bull" trend, demonstrating strong independence due to domestic energy security fundamentals, a domestic investor structure, and effective market stabilization mechanisms. The policy shift from "guiding" to "establishing mechanisms" for long-term capital entry indicates its importance in stabilizing the capital market. The focus areas for the market include the evolving impact of geopolitical conflicts, energy price trends, and the anticipated adjustments in Federal Reserve policies [2][3][4]. A-Share Market Resilience - The A-share market has shown notable resilience, with the Shenzhen Component Index and Shanghai Composite Index declining less than 2% amid the escalating US-Iran conflict and global market pressures. This resilience is attributed to several factors: the diversification of China's crude oil imports, which mitigates the impact of supply disruptions; the predominance of domestic individual and institutional investors, limiting foreign influence; and proactive regulatory measures that have reinforced the "slow bull" foundation prior to the current geopolitical tensions [3][4]. Policy Support and Long-Term Capital - The top-level design emphasizes the establishment of a market mechanism and ecosystem that supports long-term investments, enhancing the inherent stability and vitality of the capital market. The policy trajectory has evolved from encouraging long-term capital entry to ensuring that such capital is willing to invest, stay, and grow. By the end of 2025, various long-term funds held approximately 23 trillion yuan of A-share circulating market value, reflecting a 36% increase from the beginning of the year. This progress indicates significant advancements in long-term capital market entry, with the potential for increased stabilization efforts from long-term funds in response to external disturbances [4][5]. Sector Focus and Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on sectors that benefit from rising prices, such as non-ferrous metals and chemicals, as well as those related to domestic computing power synergies and high-end manufacturing, including new energy and electricity. Additionally, sectors supported by industrial policies and showing upward trends in economic conditions, such as semiconductors, AI applications, machinery, and new energy (batteries, photovoltaic equipment), are highlighted as areas of interest [5].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the recovery of corporate profit margins is crucial for the continuation of the A-share bull market, with global supply chain disruptions providing an opportunity to test the pricing power of China's advantageous manufacturing sector [1][4] - The report emphasizes that the second quarter is a critical window for rebuilding confidence in the A-share market, as the Shanghai Composite Index is at a significant resistance level, and most major indices have valuations above the 80th percentile of the past decade [3][4] - The long-term stabilization and recovery of corporate profit margins are necessary prerequisites for the A-share market to reach new heights, as the core depends on the ability of China's advantageous manufacturing sector to convert market share advantages into sustained profit margin improvements [4][5] Group 2 - The report identifies several structural opportunities arising from rising oil prices due to geopolitical tensions, including chemical products that can serve as alternative raw materials and those with significant supply disruptions from the Middle East and Western Europe [2][13] - The pricing power of China's advantageous manufacturing sector is expected to improve, particularly in industries such as chemicals, non-ferrous metals, electric equipment, and new energy, as the market seeks to validate this narrative through sustained performance [5][12] - The report suggests that low valuations and pricing power are the two most important factors in the current market environment, with historical data indicating that low valuations serve as a strong defense during periods of geopolitical conflict and oil supply disruptions [7][8] Group 3 - The report highlights that the impact of AI-driven innovation on employment in China is expected to be less severe compared to the US and Europe, due to differences in employment structures [9] - The focus of investment strategies in China is on sectors with established market shares and competitive advantages, aiming to convert these into improved pricing power and profit margins, particularly in the context of rising global energy costs [10][12] - The report indicates that the current market environment may expose structural mispricing issues, as the A-share market has seen a significant divergence in the performance of small-cap and large-cap stocks, with a shift expected towards undervalued sectors [8][12]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry analyzed [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights the valuation comparisons across various indices and sectors, indicating that the overall market is at historical high percentiles for certain metrics, suggesting potential overvaluation in some areas [2][5][6]. - The report identifies specific industries with high PE and PB ratios, indicating sectors that may be overvalued, such as real estate and semiconductor industries, while also pointing out sectors like securities and food and beverage that are undervalued [2][7]. Valuation Summary Overall Market Valuation - The CSI All Share Index (excluding ST stocks) has a PE of 22.5x and a PB of 1.9x, positioned at the 82nd and 50th historical percentiles respectively [2]. - The Shanghai Composite Index has a PE of 11.5x and a PB of 1.3x, at the 58th and 37th historical percentiles [2]. - The ChiNext Index has a PE of 40.9x and a PB of 5.6x, at the 35th and 64th historical percentiles [2]. Industry Valuation Comparisons - Industries with PE ratios above the 85th historical percentile include real estate, automation equipment, retail, and IT services [2]. - Industries with PB ratios above the 85th historical percentile include electronics (semiconductors) and telecommunications [2]. - Industries with both PE and PB ratios below the 15th historical percentile include securities, food and beverage, medical services, and white goods [2]. Sector-Specific Insights New Energy - In the photovoltaic sector, polysilicon prices have shown mixed trends, with futures prices increasing by 8.0% while spot prices decreased by 3.1% [2]. - The battery materials market is experiencing price fluctuations, with lithium hexafluorophosphate down by 5.5% and lithium carbonate up by 2.7% [2]. Technology (TMT) - The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rose by 1.8%, while the Taiwan Semiconductor Index fell by 1.1% [3]. Real Estate Chain - The steel market saw a 1.1% increase in spot prices for rebar, while cement prices decreased by 0.4% [3]. Consumer Sector - The average price of live pigs fell by 2.3%, and the wholesale price of pork dropped by 4.6% [3]. Midstream Manufacturing - Excavator sales decreased by 10.6% year-on-year in February, but exports increased by 38.8% [3]. Cyclical Industries - Brent crude oil prices increased by 11.3%, reaching $103.89 per barrel, marking a significant rise since the beginning of the year [3].

Market Performance - As of March 13, 2026, the North Exchange A-share index has 298 constituent stocks with an average market capitalization of 3.006 billion yuan[26] - The North Exchange 50 index decreased by 2.15% compared to the previous week's closing price[6] - The average daily trading volume for North Exchange A-shares was approximately 19.729 billion yuan, a decrease of 16.71% from the previous week[6] Industry Insights - The International Energy Agency reported that the global oil market is facing the most severe supply disruptions in history due to ongoing tensions in the Middle East, with a projected drop in global crude oil supply by about 8 million barrels per day in March[18] - Domestic gasoline and diesel prices increased by 695 yuan and 670 yuan per ton, respectively, effective March 9, 2026, due to rising international oil prices[11] Investment Recommendations - The price-to-earnings (PE) ratios for various markets as of March 13, 2026, are as follows: North Exchange A-shares at 64.52, ChiNext at 73.60, Shanghai Main Board at 14.25, Shenzhen Main Board at 44.38, and Sci-Tech Innovation Board at 228.45[39] - Investors are advised to focus on stocks with earnings exceeding expectations and those in innovative growth sectors that align with industrial policies, as well as undervalued stocks[39] Risks - Policy risks may affect market stability, particularly if key institutional advancements do not meet expectations[40] - Liquidity risks persist, as the North Exchange's overall liquidity remains lower than that of the main boards, which could lead to insufficient liquidity during market sentiment shifts[40] - External environmental volatility, including U.S. interest rate policies and geopolitical risks, may disrupt market sentiment and capital flows[40]

Group 1 - The investment rating for copper is maintained at a high level, with strong fundamentals supporting price stability despite a slight price decline this week [12][13]. - The aluminum market shows a similar high rating, with a recovery in downstream processing rates indicating a return to normal production levels [12][14]. - The gold market remains robust, with geopolitical risks contributing to price fluctuations, but overall demand is expected to stabilize [12][15]. Group 2 - In the rare earth sector, prices for praseodymium and neodymium oxide have decreased, but the long-term outlook remains positive due to ongoing supply-side reforms and expected demand recovery [32][33]. - Tungsten prices have surged significantly, driven by increased demand from both civilian and military sectors, indicating a strong market outlook [32][36]. - Tin prices have shown volatility, influenced by geopolitical factors and potential export restrictions from Indonesia, suggesting a cautious but optimistic market perspective [32][35]. Group 3 - Lithium prices have slightly decreased, with production levels showing a minor increase, but market sentiment remains cautious due to fluctuating demand [55][56]. - Cobalt prices have stabilized, with supply constraints and cautious demand from downstream users affecting market dynamics [55][57]. - Nickel prices are experiencing upward momentum, supported by supply-side developments in Indonesia, indicating a potential recovery in the market [55][56].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - As of the market conditions on March 13, combining the "Gain - Crowding" quadrant chart and ETF fund flow, the agricultural sector is worthy of continuous attention. The agricultural sector is steadily increasing in holdings, possibly due to capital betting on the price - rising logic. The breeding sector shows a net inflow of funds, and its upward space depends on policy strength. The coal and battery sectors have a net outflow of funds and may experience short - term fluctuations. The chemical sector has a high participation difficulty [1][23]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Market Review - From March 9 - 13, the market fluctuated and declined. As of March 13, 2026, the closing price of the Wind All - A Index was 6750.45, a 0.48% decrease from March 6 [6]. - The ChiNext performed better. From March 9 - 13, most major stock indexes pulled back. The ChiNext Index and the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 2.51% and 0.76% respectively, while the Science and Technology Innovation 50 and the CSI 500 fell by 2.88% and 1.44% respectively [9]. - Stock - type ETFs maintained a net outflow. From March 9 - 12, stock - type ETFs had a net outflow of 20.904 billion yuan, with a larger outflow scale compared to March 2 - 5. Among them, broad - based index ETFs had a net outflow of 28.299 billion yuan, industry - index ETFs had a net outflow of 1.364 billion yuan, and theme - index ETFs had a net inflow of 4.807 billion yuan [11][12]. - At the industry level, batteries and coal led the gains. The battery index rose by 8.40%, and its crowding - degree quantile since 2020 rose to 68.6%, an increase of 37.4 percentage points. The coal index rose by 6.60%, and its crowding - degree quantile since 2020 rose 7.50 percentage points to 59.70%. Aerospace and military industry and non - ferrous metals fell significantly, and their crowding degrees declined from high levels. The agricultural and livestock sector rose moderately, with little change in crowding degree. The chemical industry index fell slightly, but its crowding degree increased significantly [15][16]. 3.2 Follow - up Attention - The agricultural sector is steadily increasing in holdings and is a direction for capital to bet on the price - rising logic. The agricultural ETF rose 2.68% this week, with a net inflow of 717 million yuan. It has had a net inflow for 9 consecutive days, with a cumulative 1.095 billion yuan, accounting for 29.48% of its fund scale [23]. - The breeding sector also shows a net inflow of funds, and its upward space depends on policy strength. The breeding ETF rose 1.54% this week, with a net inflow of 447 million yuan. If the policy implementation intensity increases, the price of live pigs may recover, and the sector still has upward space [23]. - The chemical sector has a high participation difficulty. From March 9 - 12, the chemical ETF fell 0.42%, with a net outflow of 557 million yuan. After the Spring Festival, the cashing pressure in the sector increased, and from February 24 to March 13, there was a cumulative net outflow of 1.39 billion yuan. The index crowding degree has risen to a relatively high level since 2020 [24]. - The coal and battery sectors have a net outflow of funds and may experience short - term fluctuations. The battery ETF and the coal ETF rose 8.49% and 6.63% respectively this week, with net outflows of 309 million yuan and 795 million yuan respectively. The battery sector may adjust in the short term, and the subsequent market of the coal sector is greatly affected by the situation in the Middle East [24].