Group 1 - LME copper futures rose by 82 USD, closing at 9860 USD per ton [1] - LME aluminum futures increased by 17 USD, closing at 2646 USD per ton [4] - LME zinc futures gained 20 USD, closing at 2838 USD per ton [4] - LME lead futures rose by 4 USD, closing at 2014 USD per ton [4] - LME nickel futures surged by 305 USD, closing at 15523 USD per ton [4] - LME tin futures increased by 366 USD, closing at 33811 USD per ton [4] - LME cobalt futures remained flat, closing at 33335 USD per ton [2]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The positive macro - expectations brought by anti - involution have pushed up short - term copper prices [3]. 3. Key Points by Category 3.1 Price and Volatility - The latest copper price is 79,700 yuan/ton, with a monthly price range forecast of 73,000 - 80,000 yuan/ton. The current volatility is 10.13%, and the historical percentile of the current volatility is 14.3% [2]. - In the copper futures market, the latest prices of沪铜主力,沪铜连一,沪铜连三, and伦铜3M are 79,700 yuan/ton, 79,770 yuan/ton, 79,750 yuan/ton, and 9,794.5 dollars/ton respectively, with daily increases of 1,290 yuan, 1,330 yuan, 1,390 yuan, and 116.5 dollars, and daily increase rates of 1.65%, 1.7%, 1.77%, and 1.2% respectively. The沪伦比is 8.15, with a daily decrease of 0.03 and a daily decrease rate of 0.37% [8]. 3.2 Risk Management Suggestions - For inventory management with high finished - product inventory and concerns about price drops, it is recommended to sell 75% of沪铜主力期货 contracts at around 82,000 yuan/ton and sell 25% of CU2509C82000 call options when volatility is relatively stable [2]. - For raw material management with low raw material inventory and concerns about price increases, it is recommended to buy 75% of沪铜主力期货 contracts at around 75,000 yuan/ton [2]. 3.3 Factors Affecting Prices - **Likely Positive Factors**: Sino - US tariff policy easing, reduction in LME inventory levels, the US dollar index hovering at a low level, and anti - involution benefiting the entire non - ferrous metal sector [4]. - **Likely Negative Factors**: Tariff policy fluctuations, reduced global demand due to tariff policies, and the Fed maintaining high interest rates [5]. 3.4 Market Outlook - Copper prices showed a downward - breaking trend before July 17th. However, the strong US retail data on July 17th and positive tariff expectations on July 18th boosted copper prices. The decline in the gold - copper ratio also indicated a change in investors' risk preferences. In the next week, copper prices may continue the strong trend of the last two trading days of last week, showing a slight upward trend. The US tariff policies with Indonesia and Japan are also beneficial to demand. The durable goods orders data on July 25th is worth attention [6]. 3.5 Spot Data - The latest prices of Shanghai Non - ferrous 1 copper, Shanghai Wumaom, Guangdong Nanchu, and Yangtze Non - ferrous are 78,660 yuan/ton, 78,635 yuan/ton, 78,540 yuan/ton, and 79,760 yuan/ton respectively, with daily increases of 640 yuan, 620 yuan, 550 yuan, and 1,050 yuan, and daily increase rates of 0.82%, 0.79%, 0.71%, and 1.33% respectively. The升贴水of Shanghai Non - ferrous, Shanghai Wumaom, Guangdong Nanchu, and Yangtze Non - ferrous are 220 yuan/ton, 115 yuan/ton, 60 yuan/ton, and 125 yuan/ton respectively, with daily increases of 45 yuan, 30 yuan, 5 yuan, and 20 yuan, and daily increase rates of 25.71%, 35.29%, 9.09%, and 19.05% respectively [11]. 3.6 Scrap - to - Refined Copper Spread - The current scrap - to - refined copper spread (tax - included) is 1,478.51 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 513.08 yuan and a daily increase rate of 53.15%. The reasonable scrap - to - refined copper spread (tax - included) is 1,496.7 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 10.45 yuan and a daily increase rate of 0.7%. The price advantage (tax - included) is - 18.19 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 502.63 yuan and a daily decrease rate of 96.51%. Similar data is also provided for the non - tax - included situation [14]. 3.7 Warehouse Receipt and Inventory Data - **SHFE Warehouse Receipts**: The total沪铜仓单is 38,239 tons, with a daily decrease of 3,900 tons and a daily decrease rate of 9.26%. The total international copper warehouse receipt is 4,667 tons, with a daily decrease of 2,708 tons and a daily decrease rate of 36.72% [17]. - **LME Inventory**: The total LME copper inventory is 122,075 tons, with a daily decrease of 100 tons and a daily decrease rate of 0.08%. The registered LME copper warehouse receipt is 108,100 tons, with a daily decrease of 2,850 tons and a daily decrease rate of 2.57%. The cancelled LME copper warehouse receipt is 14,075 tons, with a daily increase of 2,875 tons and a daily increase rate of 25.67% [19]. - **COMEX Inventory**: The total COMEX copper inventory is 242,837 tons, with a weekly increase of 8,633 tons and a weekly increase rate of 3.69%. The registered COMEX copper warehouse receipt is 107,368 tons, with a weekly increase of 4,944 tons and a weekly increase rate of 0.76%. The cancelled COMEX copper warehouse receipt is 135,469 tons, with a weekly increase of 217 tons and a weekly increase rate of 0.16% [22][23]. 3.8 Import and Processing Data - The copper import profit and loss is - 127.28 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 16.74 yuan and a daily decrease rate of 11.62%. The copper concentrate TC is - 43.17 dollars/ton, with no daily change [23].

中信建投证券股份有限公司 关于云南铜业股份有限公司内幕信息知情人登记制度的 《上市公司信息披露管理办法》《上市公司监管指引第 5 号—上市公司内幕信息 知情人登记管理制度》等有关法律、行政法规、部门规章、规范性文件及《云南 铜业股份有限公司章程》等的有关规定，结合公司实际情况，制定了《云南铜业 股份有限公司内幕信息知情人管理制度》。 二、公司内幕信息知情人登记制度的执行情况 公司在筹划及操作本次交易事宜过程中，严格按照中国证监会及深圳证券交 易所的要求，制定了严格的保密制度，采取了必要且充分的保密措施，具体如下： 告知本次交易的交易相关方对本次交易相关信息严格保密，在内幕信息依法披露 前，不得公开或者泄露该等信息，不得利用该等信息进行内幕交易。 限定本次交易相关敏感信息的知悉范围，做好信息管理和内幕信息知情人登记工 作，知晓相关敏感信息的仅限于进行内幕信息知情人登记的核心参与人员。公司 已经按照深圳证券交易所的要求编写、递交了交易进程备忘录、内幕信息知情人 登记表等相关材料。 息的人员仅限于公司的董事、监事、高级管理人员和相关经办人员，上述人员均 严格履行了保密义务，未向任何其他第三方泄露本次交易的相关保密信 ...

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"反内卷"政策预期强化催生底部金属机遇 有色金属行业周报 2025年7月 20 日 核心观点 行业周报 · 有色金属行业 有色金属行业 | | | 分析师 华立 ☎: 021-20252629 网: huali@chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130516080004 阎予露 ☎：010-80927659 0: yanyulu @chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130522040004 相对沪深 300 表现图 2025-7-20 4000 资料来源：中国银河证券研究院 相关研究 【银河有色】行业周报_中美关税谈判缓和,稀土磁 材反制作用凸显 20250608 www.chinastock.com.cn 证券研究报告 请务必阅读正文最后的中国银河证券股份有限公司免责声明 市场行情回顾:截止到7月18日周五收市:本周上证指数+0.69%,报 3534.48 ● 点; 沪深 300 指数+1.09%,报 4058.55点; SW 有色金属行业指数+1.82%, 报 5294.21点。分子行业来看,本周有色金属行业 5个二级子行业中,工业金 属、贵金属、小金属、能源金 ...

| | 操作评级 | 2025年07月21日 | | --- | --- | --- | | 铜 | ★☆☆ | 肖静 首席分析师 | | | | F3047773 Z0014087 | | 铝 | な女女 | 刘冬博 高级分析师 | | 氧化铝 | ななな | F3062795 Z0015311 | | 铸造铝合金 文文文 | | | | 锌 | ななな | 吴江 高级分析师 | | 能 | な☆☆ | F3085524 Z0016394 | | | | 张秀睿 中级分析师 | | 镇及不锈钢 文☆☆ | | F03099436 Z0021022 | | 锡 | ★☆☆ | 孙芳芳 中级分析师 | | 碳酸锂 | ★☆☆ | F03111330 Z0018905 | | 工业硅 | ななな | | | 多晶硅 | ☆☆☆ | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【铜】 周一沪铜增仓拉涨至7.97万,国内工业品交投气氛感染沪铜,同时周末国内社库去库快,SMM社库周一大减2.47 万吨至11.86万吨；钢联社库口径则减少1.89万吨在12.55 ...

大宗商品周度报告 2025年7月21日 流动性和需求均承压 商品短期或震荡偏弱运行 ●行情回顾：上周商品市场整体收涨1.33%，其中农产品和贵金属涨幅较大， 上涨1.44%和1.29%，黑色、能化和有色金属分别上涨1.06%、0.69%和 0.37% 具体品种收盘价来看，涨幅居前的品种为原油、菜粕和工业硅，涨幅分别为 3.52%、3.38%和3.33%；跌幅较大的品种为LPG、尿素和铅，跌幅分别为 2.48%、1.58%和1.49%。 资金方面有所上升，主要受益于有色金属方向的流入。 ●展望：进入到7月中旬以来，市场逐步消化了对等关税问题带来的市场冲击。 当前阶段，美欧关税问题到了最后阶段仍然比较焦灼，贝森特访日后释放了不错 的贸易协议的信号，整体来看，市场对于鲍威尔的去留以及美国财政发债问题可 能带来的美元流动性压力尚未表现出担忧，美元流动性整体仍然处于比较平稳的 水平。在外部宏观流动性平稳的背景下，过去两周市场对于国内政策"扩内需" 和"反内卷"的组合拳预期强烈，短期来看市场的风险偏好预计维持震荡偏强的 水平，静候宏观政策落地的进一步明朗。 贵金属方面，市场延续偏强走势，其中白银表现相对突出。得益于美元回 ...

7月21日，A股市场整体上涨。 截至收盘，上证指数收报3559.79点，上涨0.72%，深证成指收报11007.49点，上涨0.86%，创业板指收 报2296.88点，上涨0.87%，北证50指数上涨2.38%。A股市场合计成交17274.28亿元，较上一交易日增 加1339.22亿元。 1. A股市场全天主力资金净流出136.41亿元 今日A股市场主力资金开盘净流出52.22亿元，尾盘净流入15.76亿元，全天净流出136.41亿元。 | | | 沪深两市近五日主力资金流向情况(亿元) | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日期 | | 净流入金额 开盘净流入 | | 尾盘净流入 超大单净买入 | | 2025-7-21 | -136.41 | -52. 22 | 15. 76 | -9.08 | | 2025-7-18 | -256. 41 | -65. 68 | -5.90 | -135.30 | | 2025-7-17 | 69.86 | -16. 82 | 13. 64 | 124. 01 | | 2025-7-16 | -134. 35 | -8.00 | ...

Group 1: Macroeconomic Insights - The first half of tariff measures has shown a high opening and low closing trend, with actual tariff rates increasing by only 6.5% from January to May, significantly lower than the theoretical increase of 14.5% [1][24] - China's exports have maintained stable volume and increased prices, but are expected to moderate in the future due to reduced tariff impacts from re-exporting and increased orders from non-US sources [1][24] - The economic impact of tariffs is less than expected, with the US inflation remaining low despite tariff increases, influenced by weak demand in the automotive market and fluctuations in oil prices [2][24] Group 2: Sectoral Performance - The second quarter of 2025 shows that total growth still faces bottlenecks, but emerging technologies and certain cyclical sectors are beginning to show performance improvements [3][4] - The electronics, military, non-bank financials, and non-ferrous metals sectors are experiencing high growth, while sectors like steel and aquaculture are showing initial signs of performance recovery [3][4] - The beverage sector, particularly Nongfu Spring, is highlighted as a rare super brand in China with strong growth potential, benefiting from its competitive advantages in brand, channel, and supply chain [13][15] Group 3: Investment Strategies - The Hong Kong stock market has been under pressure since late June, but is expected to outperform the A-share market in the second half of the year due to accumulating positive factors [10][35] - The technology sector in Hong Kong is poised for significant growth, especially with the easing of US chip export restrictions and the acceleration of AI applications [12][35] - The beverage company Nongfu Spring is projected to maintain a high growth trajectory in its packaging water and tea segments, supported by favorable market conditions and competitive positioning [14][16]

Market Overview - A-shares surged on July 21, with the Shanghai Composite Index and ChiNext Index both reaching new highs for the year, while the Shenzhen Component Index broke through 11,000 points, marking a four-month high [1] - The total trading volume across the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock exchanges reached 1.7274 trillion yuan [1] Water Conservancy and Hydropower Sector - The water conservancy and hydropower sector experienced a significant rally, with multiple stocks hitting the daily limit. Notable performers included Wuxin Tunnel Equipment and Jikang Technology, both up by 30% [3][4] - The State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission announced the establishment of China Yarlung Group, which is expected to enhance the long-term growth potential of the hydropower industry [5] - The Yarlung Zangbo River downstream hydropower project, with a total investment of approximately 1.2 trillion yuan, is anticipated to boost the hydropower sector's capacity significantly [5] Resource Stocks - Resource stocks collectively rose, with steel, coal, non-ferrous metals, chemicals, and petroleum sectors showing strong performance. Notable stocks included Liugang Co., which achieved three consecutive daily limits [6][7] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology announced a new round of growth stabilization plans for key industries, including steel and non-ferrous metals, which is expected to improve the competitive landscape [9][10] Human-Robot Concept - The human-robot concept saw renewed activity, with stocks like Wavelength New Materials achieving a nine-day limit increase. The sector is expected to benefit from upcoming events, including Tesla's major demonstration and the World Artificial Intelligence Conference [11][12][14] - The domestic human-robot industry is gaining traction globally, with increasing support from policies and a focus on core component localization, which is expected to enhance competitiveness [14]