Group 1 - The article highlights that 39 out of 360 industry/theme ETFs reached new highs in December, with established sectors like telecommunications and non-ferrous metals reflecting North American AI infrastructure and resource logic, while new sectors like commercial aerospace ETFs are gaining attention during market fluctuations [2] - The focus on sectors such as chemicals and engineering machinery indicates a shift in China's manufacturing competitiveness towards pricing power, while sectors related to anti-involution, like new energy and steel, are also showing signs of recovery [2] - The investment strategy suggests a preference for sectors with low heat and concentration but potential for long-term ROE improvement, such as chemicals, engineering machinery, and new energy, alongside a keen observation of the trend of RMB appreciation [3] Group 2 - The article discusses the favorable conditions for the spring market rally, emphasizing liquidity-driven characteristics in the A-share market, with expectations for a surge in the CSI A500 ETF towards year-end [3] - It notes that the spring market is supported by loose liquidity, with private equity making concentrated purchases and the RMB's appreciation benefiting market liquidity [3] - The potential for a spring rally is further supported by upcoming events like the Spring Festival and the Two Sessions, which may enhance risk appetite [3] Group 3 - The article indicates that the RMB's appreciation post "breaking 7" is expected to have a positive impact on both the currency and capital markets, with a potential for a spring rally [4][5] - It outlines four key logic points regarding the impact of RMB appreciation on industry allocation, including benefits for industries with high import reliance, those with significant foreign currency liabilities, and domestic demand-driven sectors [5] - The article suggests that the current market conditions do not show clear signs of a bull market peak, with internal policies remaining supportive and external risks easing [6] Group 4 - The article identifies new investment themes emerging in the commodity market and real industry chains, highlighting the increasing consumption of physical goods in manufacturing sectors and the strengthening of China's manufacturing advantages [7] - It recommends focusing on industrial resource products that resonate with AI investment and global manufacturing recovery, as well as sectors like equipment exports and domestic manufacturing recovery [7] - The article emphasizes the importance of capital market expansion and the potential for non-bank financial sectors to benefit from improving asset returns [7] Group 5 - The article states that the A-share market's cross-year rally has begun, driven by positive signals from the Shanghai Composite Index and optimistic institutional investor expectations [8] - It highlights the importance of sectors like non-ferrous metals and AI computing, with commercial aerospace being a primary market focus [8] - The article suggests that the spring market may see a structural and rapid rotation of sectors, with a recommendation for investors to adopt a low-buying strategy [12]

Group 1: Market Performance - The Hong Kong stock market opened with the Hang Seng Index up by 0.43%, the National Index up by 0.59%, and the Hang Seng Tech Index up by 0.88% [1] - New energy vehicle stocks saw a broad increase, while copper and other non-ferrous metal stocks led the rise in the sector [1] - Semiconductor stocks showed strong performance, while the consumer sector experienced slight fluctuations with the Hong Kong Consumer ETF (513230) showing a small decline [1] Group 2: Hainan Free Trade Port Developments - In the first week of the Hainan Free Trade Port's full closure, policy benefits have stimulated market activity, with impressive data in duty-free shopping and foreign trade [1] - Duty-free shopping figures for the first week reached 1.1 billion yuan, with 775,000 items purchased and 165,000 shoppers, representing year-on-year increases of 54.9%, 11.8%, and 34.1% respectively [1] - The number of newly registered foreign trade enterprises in Hainan increased by 1972, a year-on-year growth of 230%, with over 30,000 new registered customs declaration units for the year, up over 40% [1] - The passenger throughput at Meilan Airport during the first week post-closure increased by 11.8% year-on-year, with significant growth in ticket bookings for the New Year holiday [1] Group 3: Government Initiatives - The Ministry of Finance announced plans to significantly boost consumption in the coming year, implementing special actions to support consumer spending [2] - The government will continue to allocate funds for consumer goods trade-in programs and adjust subsidy ranges and standards [2] Group 4: Related ETFs - Tourism ETF (562510) is positioned to benefit from holiday catalysts and the ice and snow economy [3] - Food and Beverage ETF (515170) is seen as undervalued in the context of boosting domestic demand [3] - Hong Kong Consumer ETF (513230) is linked to e-commerce leaders and new consumption trends [3]

核心观点 公司点评 · 食品饮料行业 主要财务指标预测 成本回落与旺季催化，关注底部修复机会 —— 公司动态报告 2025 年 12 月 29 日 洽洽食品（股票代码：002557） 推荐 维持评级 分析师 刘光意 ：021-20252650 ：liuguangyi_yj@chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130522070002 | | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入(百万元) | 7,131 | 6,876 | 7,353 | 7,777 | | 收入增长率% | 4.79 | -3.59 | 6.95 | 5.75 | | 归母净利润(百万元) | 849 | 385 | 655 | 769 | | 利润增长率% | 5.82 | -54.63 | 69.88 | 17.52 | | 毛利率% | 28.78 | 22.10 | 26.46 | 26.83 | | 摊薄 EPS(元) | 1.68 | 0.76 | 1.29 | 1.52 | | PE | 13.10 | ...

12月29日，A股三大指数开盘涨跌不一，中证食品饮料指数截至发稿跌0.59%，成分股中，巴比食品涨 超3%，京粮控股、甘源食品、国投中鲁等跟涨。 相关ETF中，食品饮料ETF天弘（159736）截至发稿成交额超320万元，溢折率0.06%，盘初频现溢价交 易。 Wind金融终端数据显示，食品饮料ETF天弘（159736）上周（12月22日-12月26日）日均成交额达1535 万元。 食品饮料ETF天弘（159736，场外C类001632）跟踪中证食品饮料指数，仓位布局高端、次高端白酒龙 头股，兼顾饮料乳品、调味、啤酒等细分板块龙头，前十权重股包括"茅五泸汾洋"、伊利、海天等。 消息面上，据智通财经，茅台集团党委书记、董事长陈华12月28日谈到了社会普遍关心的茅台价格问 题。他提到，要价格合理稳预期，价格市场化改革目的是要尊重市场经济规律和消费者的选择，让产品 价格随行就市。随行就市的根本目的，是要根据市场供需实际，努力促进量价平衡。价格过高或者过 低，都容易引起市场波动。当产品存销比适当的时候，价格就是比较合理的，价格合适了，专卖店就能 成为消费者的"第一选择"。必须想尽一切办法，尽最大努力防止价格炒作，这既 ...

12月29日重点关注的财经要闻与资本市场大事： 1、中国贸促会将召开12月例行新闻发布会 12月29日下午2时30分，中国贸促会将召开12月例行新闻发布会，介绍第四届链博会筹备进展、组织中国企业家代表团访美成果、APEC"中国年"工商界相关 活动筹备情况、推动共建"一带一路"工作举措、全球知识产权保护指数报告等，并回答记者提问。 今日看点 12月29日，1家公司共发布1个股票回购相关进展。其中，1家公司回购方案已实施完毕。从已完成回购来看，安琪酵母已完成回购金额最高，回购118.88万 元。 4、5股今日股权登记 根据上市公司权益分配方案梳理统计，5只A股今日股权登记。其中，3股拟派息。分红派息方面，3只个股分红派息的股权登记日为12月29日。三元生物、 和顺石油、西南证券分红力度最大，每10股分别派息5.00元、1.00元、0.10元。 5、美国当周EIA原油库存、美国11月成屋签约销售指数等数据将公布。 （数据来源Wind，内容不构成任何投资建议） 经济观察网 编辑 王俊勇 整理 2、152.23亿元市值限售股今日解禁 12月29日，共有10家公司限售股解禁，合计解禁量为9.32亿股，按最新收盘价计算，合 ...

暖春凉夏——2026 年 A 股年度策略 20251228 摘要 从中长期来看，预计 2026 年一季度可能成为全年高点。一季度冲顶后，上行 弹性空间相对有限。这与当前一致乐观预期有所不同，需要投资者保持谨慎。 2026 年市场展望：预计 2026 年一季度可能成为全年高点，与当前一 致乐观预期不同，需保持谨慎，上行弹性空间相对有限，或呈现前高后 低的状态。 企业盈利预测：明年企业盈利增速预计在 5%至 10%之间，略低于市场 一致预期。若 EPS 增长在此区间，指数涨幅可能仅在 10%左右，高点 或在 4,200 至 4,300 点区间。 估值评估：以上证指数为例，股债性价比指标显示当前市场虽未达到泡 沫状态，但已接近传统意义上的顶部位置，大幅提升估值难度较大。 筹码结构分析：主动权益持仓极端分化，电子行业占比接近 25%，TMT 合计接近 40%，历史数据显示，当一个行业持仓逼近 20%时容易见顶。 消费板块机会：当前消费板块预期极低，筹码结构低迷，容易因某些小 因素而反转，明年可能出现超预期表现，值得重点关注。 周期股投资逻辑：明年周期股有机会，但非基于 PPI 通胀逻辑，需关注 PPI 翻正后经营杠杆 ...

Market Overview - The U.S. stock market experienced slight declines on December 26, ending a five-day rally, with the Dow Jones up 1.2%, S&P 500 up 1.4%, and Nasdaq up 1.22% for the week [2] - International precious metals futures saw a general increase, with COMEX gold futures rising by 1.31% to $4562.00 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures increasing by 11.15% to $79.68 per ounce, marking weekly gains of 3.98% and 18.06% respectively [3] Macro Policy - The Ministry of Finance announced plans to continue funding support for consumer goods replacement programs in 2026, aiming to boost consumption [6] - A new international convention, the "United Nations Convention on Transferable Goods Documents," was passed, allowing land transport bills to be used for bank financing and goods transfer [5] Industry Trends - Several lithium iron phosphate manufacturers, including Hunan Youneng and Wanrun New Energy, announced production cuts due to high upstream raw material prices and cost pressures [17] - The National Data Bureau released opinions to enhance financial support for data technology innovation, encouraging long-term capital investment in the sector [8][18] Company Developments - Lenovo plans to launch its first "AI Super Intelligent Agent" during CES, aiming for comprehensive AI capabilities across devices [25] - CATL announced plans to significantly apply sodium batteries across various sectors in 2026, indicating a trend towards dual sodium-lithium battery usage [26] - Xiaomi's co-founder Lin Bin plans to sell up to $5 billion of B-class common stock annually starting December 2026, with proceeds aimed at establishing an investment fund [27] - Huawei is set to launch its latest AI chip "Ascend 950" in South Korea in 2026, marking its entry into the Korean market [28] - Toyota aims for a global production target of over 10 million vehicles in 2026, responding to strong demand for hybrid vehicles [29] - Kweichow Moutai plans to reduce the supply of high-value products in 2026, including a decrease in the production of zodiac-themed Moutai [30] - China Duty Free Group's subsidiary won a bid for a duty-free project at Beijing Capital International Airport, with a guaranteed operating fee of 480 million yuan for the first year [39] - Wangfujing also secured a bid for a duty-free project at the same airport, with a guaranteed operating fee of 113 million yuan for the first year [40]

Group 1 - The market is expected to maintain structural opportunities driven by liquidity easing, policy expectations, and a strengthening yuan, with consensus on sectors like technology manufacturing, resource products, and beneficiaries of yuan appreciation [1][4][5] - A total of 39 out of 360 industry/theme ETFs reached new highs in December, with established sectors like telecommunications and non-ferrous metals leading, alongside emerging sectors like commercial aerospace [2][3] - The focus remains on sectors with low heat and high long-term ROE potential, such as chemicals, engineering machinery, and new industries like commercial aerospace, while also tracking the trend of yuan appreciation [3][4] Group 2 - The spring market conditions remain favorable, supported by liquidity and investor expectations, with a potential for volatility in early 2026 due to upcoming events like the Spring Festival and the Two Sessions [4][10] - The yuan's appreciation is expected to enhance domestic purchasing power and attract foreign capital back to Chinese assets, creating significant potential for asset revaluation [5][6] - Key sectors to watch include AI investments, global manufacturing recovery, and consumer sectors benefiting from increased domestic demand, such as aviation, hotels, and food and beverage [9][11][12] Group 3 - The current market is characterized by a lack of clear bull market signals, but the foundation remains solid with improving fundamentals and capital inflows [7][12] - The market is likely to experience a structural and rapid rotation of sectors, with a focus on technology themes and non-bank financial sectors [16][15] - The upcoming spring market is anticipated to show upward momentum, with opportunities for low-positioning strategies and sector switching rather than aggressive trend-following [16][14]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the A-share market is experiencing a cross-year rally, driven by liquidity and positive policy expectations, with a focus on sectors like AI, commercial aerospace, and materials [9][10][11] - 39 out of 360 industry/theme ETFs reached new highs in December, with established sectors like telecommunications and non-ferrous metals leading, while new sectors like commercial aerospace are gaining traction [1] - The market consensus is shifting towards sectors representing competition in next-generation infrastructure between China and the US, with a focus on manufacturing and pricing power in the global market [1][2] Group 2 - The strategy emphasizes structural opportunities in a volatile market, with a preference for sectors with low concentration but rising attention and long-term ROE potential, such as chemicals and engineering machinery [2] - The outlook for the RMB is positive, with expectations of appreciation driven by improved domestic conditions and external factors, which could lead to significant capital inflows and asset revaluation [4][5] - The spring market is expected to benefit from favorable conditions, including liquidity support and upcoming policy events, with a focus on technology and cyclical sectors [3][10][12] Group 3 - The investment focus is on sectors that benefit from RMB appreciation, such as those with high import material dependency and those that can leverage increased domestic purchasing power [5] - The market is characterized by a structural rotation, with a focus on technology themes and sectors like commercial aerospace, nuclear power, and robotics [12][14] - The overall sentiment is optimistic, with expectations of a continued upward trend in the market leading up to the Spring Festival, supported by strong institutional buying and favorable policy expectations [11][13][14]

截至2025年12月26日收盘，品渥食品(300892)报收于31.75元，下跌1.34%，换手率4.48%，成交量2.89万 手，成交额9226.72万元。 董秘最新回复 投资者： 请问贵公司作为A股"进口食品第一股"，目前公司进口业务占比多少，人民币的持续升值，对 公司的业务有何影响，进口成本降低是否能有效改善公司利润？ 投资者： 董秘您好，公司专注于进口食品品牌运营，请问人民币升值是否会对公司产生积极影响？谢 谢。 董秘： 投资者您好，公司主要产品为国外进口，人民币升值会降低产品采购的单价，对公司有正面影 响。公司的进口产品采购主要以欧元、新西兰元、美元计价。感谢您对本公司的关注。 当日关注点 董秘： 投资者您好，公司主要产品为国外进口，人民币升值会降低产品采购的单价，对公司的业绩有 正面影响，公司国外采购占比90%以上，具体数据已在定期报告中披露。感谢您对本公司的关注。 投资者： 你好，公司主营进口食品的运营，人民币升值是不是对公司有比较大的利好影响？ 董秘： 投资者您好，公司主要产品为国外进口，人民币升值会降低产品采购的单价，对公司有正面影 响。公司的进口产品采购主要以欧元、新西兰元、美元计价。感谢 ...