Group 1 - The Canadian dollar (CAD) is experiencing a range-bound trading pattern against the US dollar (USD) due to the Bank of Canada's policy stance, oil price volatility, and uncertainties surrounding the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) review [1][2] - The Bank of Canada has maintained its benchmark interest rate, indicating that the current rate is appropriate, which provides a foundation of support for the CAD [1] - There is a divergence in market expectations regarding future actions by the Bank of Canada, with some institutions predicting potential rate hikes due to persistent inflation, while others foresee continued economic weakness leading to rate cuts [1][2] Group 2 - The US Federal Reserve's hawkish stance contrasts with the Bank of Canada's stable policy, affecting the interest rate differential between the US and Canada, which is a significant factor influencing CAD's performance [1][2] - As an energy-exporting currency, the CAD is highly correlated with oil prices; recent fluctuations in oil prices, combined with trade tensions, are suppressing demand expectations and impacting the CAD negatively [1][2] - The annual review of the USMCA is a critical risk factor for the CAD, as changes in trade agreement terms and tariff adjustments could directly impact Canadian export trade, leading to weakened fundamental support for the CAD [2] Group 3 - The CAD is expected to maintain a range-bound trading pattern in the short term, with strong support levels below and significant resistance above, indicating a lack of clear directional movement [2] - Key variables to monitor include Canadian inflation, employment data, and central bank policy statements, which will directly influence interest rate expectations [2] - The potential for CAD appreciation exists if oil prices rise, the Bank of Canada adopts a more hawkish tone, and trade risks diminish; conversely, CAD may face downward pressure if oil prices decline, trade tensions escalate, or economic data weakens [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The crude oil market is in a weak supply - demand situation with continuous inventory accumulation expected in 2026. Attention should be paid to selling points from geopolitical situations [7][8]. - For asphalt, demand lacks highlights, and attention should be paid to the dynamics of Venezuelan raw materials which may be the main support [31]. - PTA is expected to rise first and then fall with a downward - shifted price center, while ethylene glycol is expected to be under pressure for shock consolidation [56]. - The polyolefin market follows the cost - driven logic, but the upside space is limited. Attention should be paid to structural short - selling opportunities [74]. - Pulp maintains a wide - range shock trend with pressure on the upside and support on the downside [110]. - The soda ash market is under pressure from increasing supply and shrinking demand, and is likely to continue a weak operation in the long - term, with short - term shock operation expected [153]. 3. Summary by Directory Crude Oil - **Market Review and Operation Suggestions**: Weather speculation has ended, and the market is in shock. Supply - demand is weak, and attention should be paid to selling points from geopolitical situations [7]. - **Fundamental Changes**: Three major institutions' January reports show a pessimistic outlook for 2026, with continuous inventory accumulation. US refinery data is also bearish [8]. Asphalt - **Market Review and Operation Suggestions**: Crude oil supply - demand is weak, and Venezuelan situation drives the price up. Supply may decline slightly, and demand is weak [30]. - **Fundamental Changes**: Crude oil supply - demand is weak. Spot prices in some areas change slightly, and the average domestic price drops slightly. Supply and profit change, and demand is weak with inventory changes [32][33][34]. Polyester - **Market Review and Operation Suggestions**: PTA first falls and then rises, and is expected to rise first and then fall. Ethylene glycol first suppresses and then rises, and is expected to be under pressure [55][56]. - **Main Driving Forces**: Downstream consumption demand weakens. PTA supply is stable, and the price may rise first and then fall. Ethylene glycol has a trend of inventory accumulation and is expected to be under pressure [57][58][60]. Polyolefins - **Market Review and Operation Suggestions**: Futures prices first fall and then rise. The market follows the cost - driven logic, but the upside is limited. Attention should be paid to short - selling opportunities [73][74]. - **Fundamental Changes**: Polypropylene and polyethylene production increase. Production profits vary. Inventory shows a differentiated structure, and downstream start - up levels have different performances [75][79][84]. Pulp - **Market Review and Outlook**: The pulp contract price rises slightly, and the spot price is weak. It maintains a wide - range shock [109][110]. - **Fundamental Changes**: Pulp shipping volume, import volume, inventory, and downstream market have different changes [111][117][131]. Soda Ash - **Market Review and Operation Suggestions**: The futures price first falls and then rebounds, with a stable price center. Supply pressure is high, demand shrinks, and inventory decreases. It is expected to be in shock in the short - term and weak in the long - term [146][153]. - **Soda Ash Market Situation**: Supply is at a high level, inventory decreases but the core contradiction remains, spot prices are stable, and downstream demand has different impacts [154][164][173].

Group 1: Gold Market - Spot gold continues its strong upward trend, surpassing the $4,900 mark and reaching a historical high of $4,960.43 per ounce [1] - The primary driver of this surge is the persistent weakness of the US dollar, which fell 0.5% to 98.28, marking a three-week low [1] - Market expectations indicate that the Federal Reserve is likely to initiate a rate cut cycle in the second half of 2026, with two cuts totaling 50 basis points, enhancing gold's appeal as a non-yielding asset [1] Group 2: Stock Market - The Dow Jones index is reported at 49,384.01 points, up 0.63%, buoyed by signals of easing geopolitical tensions from the Davos Forum [7] - The S&P 500 index stands at 6,913.35 points, up 0.55%, reflecting optimistic expectations ahead of the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting [7] - The Nasdaq index is at 25,436.02 points, up 0.91%, with active performance in tech stocks, particularly in the AI sector [7] Group 3: Currency Market - The US dollar index (DXY) is at 98.30, down 0.41%, as safe-haven buying recedes due to easing geopolitical tensions [8] - The euro to dollar exchange rate is reported at 1.1750, up 0.56%, benefiting from reduced trade friction risks between the US and Europe [8] - The dollar to yen exchange rate is around 158.40, with market risk appetite improving and demand for the yen weakening [8] Group 4: Commodity Market - WTI crude oil is priced at approximately $59.70 per barrel, down 2.14%, as geopolitical premiums significantly decline [5] - Spot silver is reported at about $95.82, up 3.44%, as the market rebounds above the $95 historical high amid easing geopolitical tensions [8] Group 5: Cryptocurrency Market - Bitcoin is trading at approximately $89,521, having slightly dropped from the psychological $90,000 mark, showing strong technical support around $88,000 [8] - Ethereum is fluctuating around the $3,000 mark, with recent on-chain activity debates affecting its price, oscillating between $2,980 and $3,050 [8]

Oil Market - Oil prices fell on Thursday, with WTI March contract closing down $1.26 at $59.36 per barrel, a decline of 2.08% [2] - Brent March contract closed down $1.18 at $64.06 per barrel, a decline of 1.81% [2] - EIA report indicated an increase in crude oil inventory by 3.6 million barrels, significantly exceeding analysts' expectations of a 1.1 million barrel increase [2] - Gasoline inventory reached its highest level since 2021, with exports dropping by over 500,000 barrels per day [2] - Geopolitical tensions, particularly the drone attack on a major Russian oil terminal, continue to impact oil prices [2] Fuel Oil - The main fuel oil contract FU2603 rose by 1.89% to 2592 yuan/ton, while low-sulfur fuel oil contract LU2603 increased by 1.65% to 3135 yuan/ton [3] - Singapore's onshore fuel oil inventory decreased by 2.08 million barrels (8.22%) week-on-week, while Fujairah's inventory increased by 13,600 barrels (1.35%) [3] - The market structure for high-sulfur fuel oil is expected to face downward pressure due to potential supply from Venezuela [3][4] Asphalt - The main asphalt contract BU2602 rose by 0.45% to 3157 yuan/ton, with domestic asphalt shipments increasing by 15.1% week-on-week [5] - The capacity utilization rate for modified asphalt producers decreased by 0.5% week-on-week but increased by 3.5% year-on-year [5] - The market is currently balancing weak demand with strong cost expectations, influenced by geopolitical tensions [5] Rubber - The main rubber contract RU2605 increased by 105 yuan/ton to 15850 yuan/ton, with NR and BR contracts also showing gains [6] - China's rubber tire production is projected to increase by 0.3% year-on-year, while synthetic rubber production is expected to decline by 20.2% [6] - The rise in butadiene rubber prices is attributed to supply shortages and increased demand from tire manufacturers [6] PX, PTA, and MEG - TA605 closed at 5298 yuan/ton, up 2.79%, while EG2605 closed at 3847 yuan/ton, up 4.28% [7] - PX futures closed at 7390 yuan/ton, reflecting a 2.55% increase [7] - The overall operating rate for ethylene glycol in mainland China is at 73.04%, down 1.39% week-on-week [7] Methanol - Methanol prices in Taicang were reported at 2238 yuan/ton, with CFR China prices ranging from $260 to $264 per ton [8] - Domestic supply remains stable, while demand is weakening due to reduced operating rates in MTO facilities [8] - The market is expected to maintain a bottoming trend due to pressure from port inventory [8] Polyolefins - Mainstream prices for polypropylene in East China range from 6320 to 6500 yuan/ton, with various production margins reported [9] - HDPE and LDPE prices have increased compared to last week, indicating a recovery in demand [9] - Inventory levels are expected to rise as factories prepare for the upcoming holiday [9] PVC - PVC prices have increased across various regions, with electric stone method prices ranging from 4530 to 4630 yuan/ton [10] - Supply remains high, but domestic demand is slowing down, leading to a bearish outlook [10] - The market is expected to experience bottoming trends due to changes in export tax policies [10] Urea - Urea futures prices showed a slight increase, with the main contract closing at 1776 yuan/ton [11] - Demand is expected to remain strong due to pre-spring planting preparations, although market acceptance of prices will be crucial [11] - Urea inventory has decreased by 4.07%, supporting manufacturers' pricing strategies [11] Soda Ash - Soda ash futures prices increased to 1185 yuan/ton, with stable pricing in the market [12] - Recent production rates have shown slight fluctuations, with a decrease in output [12] - The market is expected to face pressure from rising supply and stable demand [12] Glass - Glass futures prices showed a slight increase, closing at 1057 yuan/ton, with stable demand observed [14] - The industry is preparing for potential production increases, but seasonal demand may decline as the holiday approaches [14] - Overall supply-demand dynamics remain challenging, with expectations of inventory accumulation [14]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The cold wave has pushed up natural gas prices, with US natural gas futures soaring to their highest level since 2022, and the HH natural gas price is expected to set a record for the largest weekly increase since 1990. The cold wave may disrupt natural gas production in southern US and increase demand, while its impact on shale oil production is expected to be limited [1]. - Crude oil prices remain stable, natural gas prices rise, and chemical product prices rebounded significantly on Thursday. The chemical industry chain is relatively dull, with the ethane - cracking ethylene plant and US propane prices being positively affected. The prices of PTA and styrene in the aromatic hydrocarbon sector are supported by market expectations of profit expansion in the chemical industry chain, but considering the large idle capacity of most chemical products, the probability of continuous profit expansion is low [1]. - Overall, the energy and chemical market is expected to fluctuate, with crude oil still facing geopolitical risks [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Outlook - **Crude Oil**: Supply pressure persists, with high inventories of crude oil and refined products in the US. The impact of the cold wave and supply disruptions in Kazakhstan are temporary, and future price support depends on geopolitical factors. The outlook is for a volatile market [7]. - **Asphalt**: The price of asphalt futures has risen with the strength of crude oil. However, the supply of Venezuelan oil may increase in the long - term, which will be a major negative factor. Currently, asphalt is overvalued, and its medium - to - long - term valuation is expected to decline. The outlook is for a volatile market [7][8]. - **High - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: There is an expectation of a significant increase in heavy oil supply, which will put long - term pressure on high - sulfur fuel oil. Although the geopolitical premium has returned, the high floating storage in the Asia - Pacific region and the substitution of fuel oil by natural gas and photovoltaic energy are long - term negative factors. The outlook is for a volatile market [8]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The sharp increase in natural gas prices may support low - sulfur fuel oil. However, it faces challenges such as a decline in shipping demand, substitution by green energy, and high - sulfur fuel oil. Currently, its valuation is low, and it is expected to fluctuate with crude oil. The outlook is for a volatile market [10]. - **PX**: Driven by market sentiment, PX prices are expected to be volatile and slightly stronger in the short term, but its own structural weakness restricts its upward space. PXN is expected to range between $300 - 350 per ton [11]. - **PTA**: Due to increased capital attention, PTA prices have risen significantly. Although the supply - demand pattern is expected to accumulate inventory, the processing fee has improved, and it is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger in the short term [11]. - **Pure Benzene**: Factors such as port destocking, downstream profit - locking, potential tariff cancellation, and the need for a price increase in the aromatic hydrocarbon sector have led to a slightly stronger and volatile trend in pure benzene prices [13][14]. - **Styrene**: Export disruptions, geopolitical factors, and the overall warm commodity atmosphere have led to a short - term strong and volatile trend in styrene prices. If there is no unexpected significant increase in supply or major negative news from crude oil, this trend will continue [15]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Affected by capital and the cold wave, ethylene glycol prices have rebounded with reduced positions. Although there is seasonal inventory accumulation pressure, short - term prices are expected to fluctuate within a range [15][17]. - **Short - Fiber**: Driven by cost and market sentiment, short - fiber prices have strengthened, and downstream replenishment has increased. The price is expected to follow the upstream trend with slightly pressured processing fees [19]. - **Polyester Bottle Chips**: The resonance of cost and improved supply - demand has led to profit expansion. The price is expected to fluctuate with raw materials, and the support for the processing fee has increased [21]. - **Methanol**: The inland market is weak, and the coastal market has both long and short factors. Methanol is expected to fluctuate within a range [23]. - **Urea**: With good new order transactions at low prices, urea prices have stabilized and are expected to fluctuate. The market is currently in a stalemate [24]. - **LLDPE**: The cold wave in the US and the strong chemical market sentiment have driven the price rebound, but the upward space may be limited. The short - term outlook is for a volatile market [28]. - **PP**: Driven by the chemical market sentiment, PP prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term. Attention should be paid to the impact of profit changes on maintenance plans [29]. - **PL**: Supply has tightened, and PL prices are expected to be volatile in the short term [30]. - **PVC**: Short - term "export rush" may support PVC prices, but the long - term supply - demand outlook is under pressure. The price is expected to be volatile [32]. - **Caustic Soda**: With low valuation and weak expectations, caustic soda prices are expected to be weak and volatile [33]. 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring 3.2.1 Energy and Chemical Daily Indicator Monitoring - **Inter - period Spreads**: Different varieties have different inter - period spread values and changes, such as Brent (M1 - M2: 0.71, unchanged), Dubai (M1 - M2: 0.36, - 0.02), etc. [34]. - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts**: Each variety has corresponding basis values, changes, and warehouse receipt quantities, for example, asphalt (basis: - 162, change: - 75, warehouse receipts: 45820 tons) [35]. - **Inter - variety Spreads**: There are various inter - variety spread values and changes, like 1 - month PP - 3MA (- 358, + 10), 1 - month TA - EG (1630, + 180), etc. [36]. 3.2.2 Chemical Basis and Spread Monitoring The report also provides basis and spread monitoring for various chemicals such as methanol, urea, styrene, etc., but specific data summaries are not detailed here [37][49][61]. 3.3 Commodity Index - **Comprehensive Index**: The comprehensive index, specialty index, and sector index all showed certain increases on January 22, 2026. For example, the commodity index increased by 0.69% to 2444.59, the energy index increased by 1.46% to 1124.89, etc. [276][277].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Pure Benzene - Styrene - Pure benzene supply slightly declined, downstream load increased, and port inventory decreased, but the absolute inventory level remained high. Styrene was driven by exports and device issues, with strong price trends. The spread between styrene and pure benzene is expected to have limited room for further expansion. Strategies include temporary observation and focusing on opportunities to shrink the EB - BZ spread [1]. Natural Rubber - Supply is shrinking as Thailand and Vietnam enter the production - reduction period, and raw material prices are rising. Demand from some semi - steel tire enterprises for export is sufficient, but domestic sales are slow. The social inventory of natural rubber in China is accumulating. Rubber prices are expected to fluctuate within the range of 15,500 - 16,500 [2]. Glass and Soda Ash - Soda ash: Spot prices are stable, with high supply, weak demand, and high inventory. Futures prices are expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term. - Glass: Supply is stable, demand is weak, and inventory is high. Futures prices are expected to continue the weak - oscillation trend in the short term [6]. Crude Oil - International oil prices declined due to the easing of geopolitical tensions and significant inventory accumulation. Brent crude oil is expected to oscillate between 60 - 66 dollars per barrel in the short term [8]. Polyolefins - For LLDPE, the marginal supply is expected to increase, and demand is in the seasonal off - season. For PP, the supply - demand situation is weak, but the balance has improved, and attention should be paid to the implementation of maintenance plans [10]. Methanol - Methanol futures are oscillating strongly, and the basis is weakening. The inland supply is high, and traditional demand is weak. The port inventory is slightly decreasing, but MTO demand is weak. Key variables include the reduction rhythm of Iranian imports and the subsiding of geopolitical risk premiums [12]. Urea - Urea futures rose, and spot prices were stable. Supply is sufficient in the short term, and demand is weak. The inventory is decreasing, and prices are expected to oscillate widely in the short term, with the main contract focusing on the 1,740 - 1,790 range [14]. PVC and Caustic Soda - Caustic soda: Prices rebounded slightly, but the supply - demand imbalance persists, and the rebound height of futures is expected to be limited. - PVC: Futures rose, but the supply is high, demand is weak, and the price is expected to oscillate widely with cost support and supply - demand pressure [15]. LPG - LPG futures prices rose, and inventory decreased. The upstream and downstream operating rates changed slightly. The market situation needs to be further observed [16]. Polyester Industry Chain - PX: Supply is high in January, and demand is weakening. Prices are expected to oscillate at a high level before the Spring Festival and have strong support in the second quarter. - PTA: Supply - demand is weakening, and the basis is weakening. Futures prices rose, but the self - driving force is limited before the Spring Festival. - MEG: Supply is high, and there is a large inventory accumulation expectation. - Bottle chips: Supply is expected to decline, and demand will weaken seasonally. - Short fibers: The supply - demand pattern is weak, and prices follow raw materials [17]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Pure Benzene - Styrene - **Upstream Prices and Spreads**: Brent and WTI crude oil prices decreased, while CFR Japan naphtha and CFR China pure benzene prices increased. The spread between pure benzene and naphtha widened [1]. - **Styrene - Related Prices and Spreads**: Styrene spot and futures prices increased, and the spread between styrene and pure benzene widened [1]. - **Downstream Cash Flows**: The cash flows of some downstream products of pure benzene and styrene changed, with some improving and some deteriorating [1]. - **Inventory**: Pure benzene and styrene inventories in Jiangsu ports decreased [1]. - **Industry Operating Rates**: The operating rates of some industries in the pure benzene and styrene industrial chain changed, with some increasing and some decreasing [1]. Natural Rubber - **Spot Prices and Basis**: The price of Yunnan state - owned whole - latex increased, and the basis changed [2]. - **Inter - monthly Spreads**: The 9 - 1 spread and 1 - 5 spread changed [2]. - **Fundamentals**: Thai and Indonesian rubber production decreased, while Indian and Chinese production increased. Tire production and export increased, and the operating rates of semi - steel and full - steel tires changed [2]. - **Inventory Changes**: The bonded area inventory of natural rubber increased, and the factory - warehouse futures inventory decreased [2]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass - Related Prices and Spreads**: Glass spot prices were stable, and futures prices increased [6]. - **Soda Ash - Related Prices and Spreads**: Soda ash spot prices were stable, and futures prices increased [6]. - **Supply**: Soda ash production and operating rate increased, while the float - glass daily melting volume decreased slightly, and the photovoltaic daily melting volume increased [6]. - **Inventory**: Glass factory inventory decreased, and soda ash factory inventory increased [6]. - **Real Estate Data**: New construction, construction, completion, and sales areas of real estate changed, with some improving and some deteriorating [6]. Crude Oil - **Crude Oil Prices and Spreads**: Brent and WTI crude oil prices decreased, while SC crude oil prices increased. Spreads between different crude oil varieties and months changed [8]. - **Refined Oil Prices and Spreads**: Refined oil prices decreased, and spreads between different refined oil products and months changed [8]. - **Refined Oil Crack Spreads**: Crack spreads of some refined oil products decreased [8]. Polyolefins - **Prices and Spreads**: LLDPE and PP futures prices increased, and spreads between different contracts and between LLDPE and PP changed [10]. - **Upstream and Downstream Operating Rates**: PE and PP device operating rates and downstream operating rates changed [10]. - **Inventory**: PE and PP enterprise and social inventories decreased [10]. Methanol - **Prices and Spreads**: Methanol futures prices increased, and the basis and spreads between different contracts changed [12]. - **Inventory**: Methanol enterprise and port inventories changed, with enterprise inventory decreasing and port inventory increasing [12]. - **Upstream and Downstream Operating Rates**: Upstream and downstream operating rates of methanol changed, with some increasing and some decreasing [12]. Urea - **Futures and Spot Prices**: Urea futures prices rose, and spot prices were stable [14]. - **Supply and Demand**: Urea production increased, and demand from some industries decreased. The inventory decreased [14]. PVC and Caustic Soda - **Spot and Futures Prices**: PVC and caustic soda spot and futures prices changed, with PVC prices rising and caustic soda prices rebounding slightly [15]. - **Overseas Quotes and Export Profits**: Overseas quotes and export profits of PVC and caustic soda changed [15]. - **Supply**: Chlor - alkali operating rates and industry profits changed [15]. - **Demand**: Downstream operating rates of PVC and caustic soda changed [15]. - **Inventory**: Chlor - alkali social and factory inventories changed [15]. LPG - **Prices and Spreads**: LPG futures prices increased, and spreads between different contracts and between spot and futures changed [16]. - **Inventory**: LPG refinery and port inventories decreased [16]. - **Upstream and Downstream Operating Rates**: Upstream and downstream operating rates of LPG changed [16]. Polyester Industry Chain - **Upstream Prices**: Crude oil, naphtha, MX, and PX prices changed [17]. - **Downstream Polyester Product Prices and Cash Flows**: Prices and cash flows of polyester products such as POY, FDY, DTY, and polyester chips changed [17]. - **PX - Related Prices and Spreads**: PX prices and spreads changed [17]. - **PTA - Related Prices and Spreads**: PTA prices and spreads changed [17]. - **MEG Port Inventory and Arrival Expectations**: MEG port inventory decreased, and the arrival expectation increased [17]. - **Polyester Industry Chain Operating Rates**: Operating rates of different industries in the polyester industry chain changed [17].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report Core Viewpoints - On January 22, 2026, most domestic commodity futures markets closed higher, with chemicals leading the gains [14]. - The US economy maintains a "slight to moderate" expansion, inflation continues to cool, and consumption shows a "K-shaped" characteristic [14]. - In 2025, China's consumer market scale exceeded 50 trillion yuan, with service retail sales growing faster. In 2026, consumption is expected to grow steadily [14]. - In the short term, risk assets may continue to adjust, but in the medium term, it is recommended to go long on stock indices, non - ferrous metals, gold, and silver [14]. Summary by Directory Financial Market Fluctuations - **Stock Index Futures**: On January 22, 2026, the CSI 300 futures price was 4719.4, down 0.26; the SSE 50 futures price was 3061.2, down 0.61; the CSI 500 futures price was 8400, up 0.25; the CSI 1000 futures price was 8292.6, up 0.56 [3]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The 2 - year treasury bond futures price was 102.408, down 0.02; the 5 - year was 105.835, down 0.04; the 10 - year was 108.15, down 0.04; the 30 - year was 112.17, down 0.03 [3]. - **Foreign Exchange**: The US dollar index was 98.7693, up 0.23; the US dollar central parity rate was 6.9646, down 57 pips [3]. - **Interest Rates**: The 7 - day inter - bank pledged repo rate was 1.4952%, up 0.04%; the 10 - year Chinese treasury bond yield was 1.8312%, down 0.14 bp; the 10 - year US treasury bond yield was 4.26%, down 4 bp [3]. Popular Industry Fluctuations - On January 22, 2026, industries such as national defense and military industry, steel, and petroleum and petrochemicals had relatively large daily increases, while industries such as food and beverage, non - bank finance, and banking had declines [6]. Overseas Commodity Fluctuations - **Energy**: On January 21, 2026, NYMEX WTI crude oil was at $59.52, up 0.3%; ICE Brent crude was at $64.62, up 0.67%; NYMEX natural gas was at $3.891, up 25.39%; ICE UK natural gas was at $105.29, up 12.07% [9]. - **Precious Metals**: COMEX gold was at $4769.1, up 3.78%; COMEX silver was at $94.46, up 6.69% [9]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: LME copper was at $12810, up 0.44%; LME aluminum was at $3115, up 0.24%; LME zinc was at $3175, up 0.06% [9]. - **Agricultural Products**: CBOT soybeans were at $1053, down 0.45%; CBOT soybean oil was at $54.05, up 2.83%; CBOT corn was at $424, down 0.18% [9]. Domestic Commodity Fluctuations - On January 22, 2026, most domestic commodities rose. Chemicals, new energy materials, non - metal building materials, energy products, etc. all had increases, while precious metals had declines [14]. Macro Summary - **Today's Market**: Domestic commodity futures markets closed mostly higher, with chemicals leading the gains [14]. - **Overseas Macro**: The US economy maintains a "slight to moderate" expansion, inflation cools, and consumption shows a "K - shaped" characteristic. Attention should be paid to upcoming GDP and inflation data [14]. - **Domestic Macro**: In 2025, China's consumer market scale exceeded 50 trillion yuan, and in 2026, consumption is expected to grow steadily [14]. - **Asset Views**: The scenario of no interest rate cut in January is basically confirmed, and the first interest rate cut by the Fed within the year is expected to be postponed to June. Short - term risk assets may adjust, while in the medium - term, it is recommended to go long on certain assets [14]. Viewpoint Highlights - **Financial**: Stock markets continue to wait for the main line, and bond markets still have disturbing factors. The short - term judgments for stock index futures, index options, and treasury bond futures are oscillatory rise, oscillation, and oscillation respectively [15]. - **Precious Metals**: After oscillatory adjustment, they maintain an upward trend. Gold and silver are expected to rise oscillatory [15]. - **Shipping**: Pay attention to the resumption of voyages in the far - month. The short - term judgment for the container shipping European line is oscillation [15]. - **Black Building Materials**: Fundamentals are lackluster. Most varieties are expected to oscillate [15]. - **Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials**: Wait for the macro - situation to become clearer. Base metals are oscillating and consolidating. Some varieties are expected to rise oscillatory, while others are expected to oscillate [15]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: The trade tension eases slightly, but the supply - demand pattern is still under pressure. Most varieties are expected to oscillate [17]. - **Agriculture**: Sentiment warms up but trends diverge. Some varieties are expected to rise oscillatory, while others are expected to oscillate or decline oscillatory [17].

1. Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - For crude oil, although the geopolitical premium has disappeared and OPEC's production increase is minimal with supply not yet surging, short - term oil prices should not be overly bearish. Maintain a range strategy of buying low and selling high, but currently, wait and see as the price needs to test OPEC's export price - support willingness. [2] - For methanol, with low valuation and an improving outlook next year, the downside is limited. Despite short - term negative pressure, geopolitical instability in Iran brings expectations, and there is feasibility to buy on dips. [3] - For urea, the current situation of internal - external price differences has opened the import window, and with the expected increase in production at the end of January, negative fundamental expectations are coming, so take profits on rallies. [6] - For rubber, with a weak seasonal pattern, it is expected to continue to decline after consolidation. Adopt a bearish approach, short on rebounds if RU2605 breaks below 16000, and partially build positions for the strategy of buying NR main contract and shorting RU2609. [11] - For PVC, the fundamentals are poor with strong supply and weak demand in China. Short - term electricity price expectations and pre - April 1 export rush support the price, but mid - term, short on rallies before significant industry production cuts. [14] - For pure benzene and styrene, the non - integrated profit of styrene is moderately high with limited room for upward valuation repair. As the non - integrated profit has significantly recovered, gradually take profits. [17] - For polyethylene, OPEC+ plans to suspend production growth in Q1 2026, and crude oil prices may have bottomed. Although the spot price has risen, the valuation has room to decline further. With no new capacity planned in H1 2026 and reduced coal - based inventory, the price has support, but demand is in a seasonal downturn. [20] - For polypropylene, the EIA report forecasts a slight reduction in global oil inventory, and the supply surplus may ease. With no new capacity in H1 2026, the supply pressure is relieved. In a context of weak supply and demand, the inventory pressure is high. Wait for the supply - surplus situation to change in Q1 next year for the price to bottom. Long the PP5 - 9 spread on dips. [23] - For PX, it is expected to continue to accumulate inventory before the maintenance season. After the Spring Festival, both PX and its downstream PTA will have strong supply - demand, and there are mid - term opportunities to buy on dips following crude oil. [26] - For PTA, it is expected to enter the Spring Festival inventory - accumulation stage with high short - term maintenance on the supply side and weakening demand due to seasonality. There is room for valuation to rise after the Spring Festival, and look for mid - term buying opportunities. [28] - For ethylene glycol, the overall load is still high, and the inventory - accumulation cycle at ports will continue. There is an expectation of further profit compression and load reduction under new - plant commissioning pressure. Be cautious of rebound risks in the short term due to the tense situation in Iran and cold wave expectations. [30] 3. Summary of Each Product Crude Oil - **Market Information**: INE main crude oil futures rose 5.30 yuan/barrel, or 1.20%, to 446.40 yuan/barrel. Related refined product futures, high - sulfur fuel oil rose 48.00 yuan/ton, or 1.89%, to 2592.00 yuan/ton; low - sulfur fuel oil rose 51.00 yuan/ton, or 1.65%, to 3135.00 yuan/ton. [1] - **Strategy**: Maintain a range strategy of buying low and selling high, but wait and see currently. [2] Methanol - **Market Information**: Regional spot prices in Jiangsu changed by 5 yuan/ton, Lunan by - 5 yuan/ton, Henan by 0 yuan/ton, Hebei by 0 yuan/ton, and Inner Mongolia by - 2.5 yuan/ton. The main futures contract changed by 45.00 yuan/ton to 2260 yuan/ton, and MTO profit changed by 1 yuan. [3] - **Strategy**: Buy on dips as the valuation is low and the outlook is improving. [3] Urea - **Market Information**: Regional spot prices in Shandong changed by 0 yuan/ton, Henan by - 10 yuan/ton, Hebei by 0 yuan/ton, Hubei by 0 yuan/ton, Jiangsu by - 10 yuan/ton, Shanxi by - 20 yuan/ton, and Northeast by 0 yuan/ton. The overall basis was - 36 yuan/ton. The main futures contract changed by - 3 yuan/ton to 1776 yuan/ton. [5] - **Strategy**: Take profits on rallies due to expected negative fundamentals. [6] Rubber - **Market Information**: Rubber prices rebounded with a volatile pattern. The long - side reasons include limited production growth in Southeast Asian rubber forests, a seasonal upward trend in the second half of the year, and improved demand expectations in China. The short - side reasons are uncertain macro expectations, increased supply, and a seasonal demand slump. As of January 15, 2026, the operating rate of Shandong tire enterprises' all - steel tires was 62.84%, up 2.30 percentage points from last week and 2.78 percentage points from the same period last year; the semi - steel tire operating rate was 74.35%, up 6.35 percentage points from last week but down 4.09 percentage points from the same period last year. As of January 11, 2026, China's total natural rubber social inventory was 125.6 million tons, a 1.9% increase. Spot prices: Thai standard mixed rubber was 14700 (+100) yuan, STR20 was 1885 (+15) dollars, etc. [8][9][10] - **Strategy**: Adopt a bearish approach, short on rebounds if RU2605 breaks below 16000, and partially build positions for the strategy of buying NR main contract and shorting RU2609. [11] PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC05 contract rose 106 yuan to 4849 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4570 (+70) yuan/ton, the basis was - 279 (- 36) yuan/ton, and the 5 - 9 spread was - 114 (+4) yuan/ton. The overall PVC operating rate was 79.6%, unchanged from the previous period. The demand - side downstream operating rate was 43.9%, down 0.1%. Factory inventory was 31.1 million tons (- 1.7), and social inventory was 114.4 million tons (+3). [13] - **Strategy**: Short on rallies mid - term before significant industry production cuts. [14] Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The spot price of pure benzene in East China was 5760 yuan/ton, unchanged; the active contract closing price was 6000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis was - 240 yuan/ton, narrowing by 195 yuan/ton. The spot price of styrene was 7600 yuan/ton, up 250 yuan/ton; the active contract closing price was 7694 yuan/ton, up 386 yuan/ton; the basis was - 94 yuan/ton, weakening by 136 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 70.86%, down 0.06%; the Jiangsu port inventory was 9.35 million tons, a reduction of 0.71 million tons. The demand - side three - S weighted operating rate was 41.91%, up 1.02%. [16] - **Strategy**: Gradually take profits as the non - integrated profit of styrene has significantly recovered. [17] Polyethylene - **Market Information**: The main contract closing price was 6814 yuan/ton, up 148 yuan/ton; the spot price was 6640 yuan/ton, up 65 yuan/ton; the basis was - 174 yuan/ton, weakening by 83 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 81.56%, up 1.23%. The production enterprise inventory was 35.03 million tons, a reduction of 4.51 million tons; the trader inventory was 2.92 million tons, unchanged. The downstream average operating rate was 41.1%, down 0.11%. The LL5 - 9 spread was - 31 yuan/ton, narrowing by 3 yuan/ton. [19] - **Strategy**: The price has support from reduced coal - based inventory and OPEC+ production suspension, but demand is in a seasonal downturn. [20] Polypropylene - **Market Information**: The main contract closing price was 6624 yuan/ton, up 139 yuan/ton; the spot price was 6660 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton; the basis was 36 yuan/ton, weakening by 39 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 76.61%, down 0.01%. The production enterprise inventory was 43.1 million tons, a reduction of 3.67 million tons; the trader inventory was 19.39 million tons, a reduction of 1.08 million tons; the port inventory was 7.06 million tons, a reduction of 0.05 million tons. The downstream average operating rate was 52.58%, down 0.02%. The LL - PP spread was 190 yuan/ton, widening by 9 yuan/ton; the PP5 - 9 spread was - 25 yuan/ton, widening by 9 yuan/ton. [21][22] - **Strategy**: Wait for the supply - surplus situation to change in Q1 next year for the price to bottom. Long the PP5 - 9 spread on dips. [23] PX - **Market Information**: The PX03 contract rose 184 yuan to 7390 yuan; PX CFR rose 19 dollars to 907 dollars. The basis was - 70 yuan (- 30), and the 3 - 5 spread was - 78 yuan (- 4). The Chinese PX load was 88.9%, down 0.5%; the Asian load was 81%, up 0.4%. In January, South Korea's PX exports to China decreased by 6.8 million tons year - on - year. The inventory at the end of November was 446 million tons, a monthly increase of 6 million tons. [25] - **Strategy**: Look for mid - term buying opportunities following crude oil after the Spring Festival. [26] PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA05 contract rose 144 yuan to 5298 yuan; the East China spot price rose 70 yuan to 5155 yuan. The basis was - 71 yuan (- 1), and the 5 - 9 spread was 34 yuan (- 10). The PTA load was 76.6%, up 0.3%. The downstream load was 86.7%, down 1.6%. The social inventory (excluding credit warehouse receipts) on January 16 was 204.5 million tons, an increase of 4 million tons. The spot processing fee was 353 yuan, down 31 yuan; the futures processing fee was 450 yuan, up 23 yuan. [27] - **Strategy**: Expect inventory accumulation during the Spring Festival. Look for mid - term buying opportunities. [28] Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The EG05 contract rose 158 yuan to 3847 yuan; the East China spot price rose 90 yuan to 3660 yuan. The basis was - 109 yuan (+1), and the 5 - 9 spread was - 103 yuan (+14). The ethylene glycol load was 73%, down 1.4%. The downstream load was 86.7%, down 1.6%. The import arrival forecast was 20.5 million tons, and the East China port departure on January 21 was 0.76 million tons. The port inventory was 79.5 million tons, a reduction of 0.7 million tons. The naphtha - based profit was - 1059 yuan, the domestic ethylene - based profit was - 862 yuan, and the coal - based profit was - 5 yuan. [29] - **Strategy**: Be cautious of rebound risks in the short term and expect further valuation compression mid - term without significant production cuts. [30]

Group 1: Gold Market - Gold prices fell below the support level of $4800 due to a decrease in market risk appetite following Trump's change in stance on Greenland [2] - Trump announced the cancellation of threatened tariffs on European countries, indicating a framework for future agreements regarding Greenland, which may ease trade tensions [2] - Despite the temporary agreement, underlying distrust between the US and Europe remains, with geopolitical and economic risks still present [2] - Technically, gold has not broken below the moving average support, indicating potential for further price movement [2] Group 2: Oil Market - The oil market is currently in a state of adjustment, with geopolitical risks providing less support to oil prices, while oversupply remains a significant issue [3] - The IEA's latest report predicts a slight increase in global oil demand, with growth expected to rise from 860,000 barrels per day to 930,000 barrels per day this year [3] - Global oil supply growth has been adjusted to 2.5 million barrels per day, up from a previous forecast of 2.4 million barrels per day, but still lower than last year's 3 million barrels per day [3] - Technically, oil prices are experiencing small upward movements but face resistance above, indicating potential for long-term volatility [3] Group 3: US Dollar Index - The US dollar index has shown weakness recently, with improved US-EU relations failing to provide strong support due to the anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [4] - The market expects a 95% probability that the Federal Reserve will not cut rates in January, with expectations for rate cuts to begin in June [4] - Core PCE inflation in the US has risen to 2.8%, above the 2% target, which may justify the Fed's decision to maintain current rates in the short term [5] - The dollar index is experiencing a short-term bullish trend but faces long-term bearish pressures due to expected rate cuts [5] Group 4: Nikkei 225 - The Nikkei 225 index has closed with a bullish candle, indicating a potential reversal from previous downward trends, with clear support at lower levels [6] - The price has re-entered a previous trading range, suggesting a trend reversal may be underway [6] Group 5: Copper Market - Copper prices have shown small fluctuations but are likely to remain in a consolidation phase, with a potential downward continuation pattern forming [7] - Short-term support is noted at $5.60, indicating a critical level to watch for price movements [7]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The prices of various energy and chemical products are expected to fluctuate. Crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, polyester, rubber, methanol, polyolefins, and PVC are all forecasted to experience an oscillatory trend. Geopolitical factors, supply - demand dynamics, and production issues are the main drivers of these price movements [1][2][4]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Wednesday, the price center of oil prices moved slightly higher. WTI's new March contract closed up $0.26 to $60.62 per barrel, a 0.43% increase; Brent's March contract closed up $0.32 to $65.24 per barrel, a 0.49% increase; SC2603 closed at 446.5 yuan per barrel, up 5.4 yuan per barrel, a 1.2% increase. Production at two major oilfields in Kazakhstan was suspended, and API data showed an increase in US crude and product inventories. Trump's decision on tariffs and ongoing geopolitical games will keep oil prices oscillating [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: On Wednesday, the main fuel oil contracts on the SHFE closed higher. Low - sulfur fuel oil supply is sufficient in January, while downstream demand provides some support. High - sulfur fuel oil may face more supply from Venezuela. The absolute prices of FU and LU will likely follow oil price fluctuations, with FU having higher volatility [2]. - **Asphalt**: On Wednesday, the main asphalt contract on the SHFE closed up 0.45% at 3157 yuan per ton. Social and refinery inventory rates increased, and the plant operating rate rose. Market concerns about raw materials eased slightly, but the Iranian situation still affects prices. The asphalt market is in a game between "weak demand reality" and "strong cost expectations" [2]. - **Polyester**: TA605 and EG2605 closed higher on the previous day, while PX futures closed lower. PX supply is shrinking due to plant maintenance, and TA is expected to follow raw material prices. EG is expected to trade in a low - level oscillation due to ample supply and falling downstream demand [4]. - **Rubber**: On Wednesday, the main rubber contracts on the SHFE closed higher. Overseas production is nearing the end of the peak season, tire companies are restocking, and inventories are seasonally increasing. Rubber prices are expected to oscillate widely in the short term [4]. - **Methanol**: On Wednesday, spot prices in different regions were reported. Domestic supply is at a high - level oscillation, and Iranian supply remains low. Zhejiang Xingxing's shutdown weakened MTO operating loads. Methanol is expected to maintain a bottom - level oscillation [6]. - **Polyolefins**: On Wednesday, prices and production margins of different polyolefins were reported. In January, there were some temporary shutdowns in upstream plants, and demand recovered in the early part of the month but will weaken as the Spring Festival approaches. Polyolefins are expected to trade at the bottom [6]. - **Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC)**: On Wednesday, PVC prices in different regions showed different trends. Supply is at a high - level oscillation, domestic demand is slowing, and the 05 contract has a large premium. PVC is expected to maintain a bottom - level oscillation [7]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides data on the basis, basis rate, price changes, and historical quantiles of various energy and chemical products, including crude oil, liquefied petroleum gas, asphalt, high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil, methanol, urea, and many others [8]. 3.3 Market News - Trump decided not to implement the planned tariffs on eight European countries after reaching a framework agreement on Greenland with NATO Secretary - General Mark Rutte. Production at two major oilfields in Kazakhstan was suspended due to power distribution and equipment issues, and the suspension may last for seven to ten days [11]. 3.4 Chart Analysis 3.4.1 Main Contract Prices - The report presents line charts showing the historical closing prices of main contracts for various energy and chemical products from 2022 - 2026, including crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, LPG, PTA, ethylene glycol, etc. [13][15][17]. 3.4.2 Main Contract Basis - Line charts display the historical basis of main contracts for different products, such as crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, etc. [29][30][35]. 3.4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads - Charts show the historical spreads between different contracts (e.g., 01 - 05, 05 - 09) for products like fuel oil, asphalt, PTA, ethylene glycol, etc. [42][47][50]. 3.4.4 Inter - product Spreads - Charts illustrate the historical spreads between different products, such as crude oil's internal - external spreads, B - W spreads, fuel oil's high - low sulfur spreads, etc. [58][60][62]. 3.4.5 Production Profits - Charts present the historical production profits or processing fees for products like LLDPE, PP, PTA, and the cash flow of ethylene - based ethylene glycol [66][68]. 3.5 Team Introduction - The research team includes the deputy director of the research institute Zhong Meiyan, the energy and chemical research director Du Bingqin, the natural rubber/polyester analyst Di Yilin, and the methanol/propylene/pure benzene PE/PP/PVC analyst Peng Haibo, with their respective backgrounds and achievements introduced [71][72][73]. 3.6 Contact Information - The company's address is at Unit 703, 6th Floor, No. 729 Yanggao South Road, China (Shanghai) Pilot Free Trade Zone. The company's phone number is 021 - 80212222, fax is 021 - 80212200, customer service hotline is 400 - 700 - 7979, and the postal code is 200127 [76].