Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - Various commodities in the futures market show different trends, including continued highs, oscillations, declines, and rebounds [2][5]. - Macroeconomic factors such as Fed policies, international political situations, and natural disasters impact commodity prices [8][11]. 3. Summary by Commodity Precious Metals - **Gold**: Continues to reach new highs, with a trend strength of 0. Yesterday, the closing price of Shanghai Gold 2510 was 843.00, up 1.87% [2][6][7]. - **Silver**: Undergoes oscillatory adjustments, with a trend strength of 1 [2][6][10]. Base Metals - **Copper**: Lacks driving forces, with prices oscillating. The trend strength is 0 [2][12][14]. - **Zinc**: Experiences a slight decline, with a trend strength of 0 [2][15][16]. - **Lead**: Inventory reduction supports prices, with a trend strength of 0 [2][19][20]. - **Tin**: Ranges within an oscillatory band, with a trend strength of 0 [2][22][26]. - **Aluminum**: Oscillates within a range, with a trend strength of 0. Alumina oscillates weakly, with a trend strength of -1. Cast aluminum alloy follows electrolytic aluminum, with a trend strength of 0 [2][27][29]. - **Nickel**: Nickel prices oscillate at a low level due to the game between smelting inventory accumulation and ore - end expectations, with a trend strength of 0. Stainless steel prices oscillate due to the short - term game between supply - demand and cost, with a trend strength of 0 [2][30][36]. Energy and Chemicals - **Carbonate Lithium**: Oscillates within a range, with a trend strength of 0 [2][37][40]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Futures warehouse receipts increase, and market sentiment fluctuations should be monitored, with a trend strength of 0. Polysilicon's price declines on the disk, and there is a preference for short - term non - standard product shipments, with a trend strength of 0 [2][41][43]. - **Iron Ore**: Expectations fluctuate, and prices oscillate widely, with a trend strength of 0 [2][44]. - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: Demand is weak, and prices oscillate widely, with a trend strength of 0 for both [2][47][50]. - **Silicon Ferroalloy and Manganese Ferroalloy**: Prices oscillate widely due to the game of capital sentiment, with a trend strength of 0 for both [2][51]. - **Coke and Coking Coal**: Expectations fluctuate, and prices oscillate widely, with a trend strength of 0 for both [2][54][56]. - **Log**: Prices oscillate repeatedly, with a trend strength of 0 [2][57][60]. - **Para - Xylene and PTA**: Short - term rebound, but medium - term weakness. MEG conducts a 1 - 5 month spread reverse arbitrage [2][61]. Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: Crude oil rebounds, providing support for international oils and fats [5][63]. - **Soybean Oil**: Argentina cancels the export tax on beans, and US soybeans oscillate weakly [5][63]. - **Soybean Meal**: US soybeans close higher, and Dalian soybean meal may rebound from oversold conditions [5][65]. - **Soybean No. 1**: The sentiment in the soybean market recovers, and prices rebound and oscillate [5][65]. - **Corn**: Attention should be paid to the listing of new grain [5][67]. - **Sugar**: Attention should be paid to the impact of "Hurricane Hagarsha" on sugarcane areas [5][69]. - **Cotton**: Attention should be paid to the transaction price of seed cotton [5][70]. - **Egg**: The peak season is not prosperous [5][72]. - **Live Pig**: It is in the stage of concentrated release of contradictions before the festival [5][73]. - **Peanut**: Prices oscillate [5][74].

Copper - Copper prices experienced narrow fluctuations overnight, with macroeconomic factors influencing the market. Fed Chairman Powell indicated risks of inflation and employment, reiterating that tariffs are expected to have a one-time impact on prices, without suggesting support for rate cuts next month. He also warned about high valuations in the US stock market, signaling potential risks [1] - Domestic monetary policy remains supportive, with the central bank's governor stating no adjustments to short-term policies are planned. The current stance is to implement moderately loose monetary policy [1] - Inventory levels showed a decrease in LME copper by 400 tons to 144,975 tons, while Comex inventory increased by 91 tons to 288,837 tons. SHFE copper warehouse receipts fell by 2,166 tons to 27,727 tons, and BC copper decreased by 25 tons to 6,445 tons [1] - Demand from downstream sectors is weak due to high copper prices and macroeconomic uncertainties, with concerns over pre-holiday inventory replenishment [1] Nickel & Stainless Steel - LME nickel rose by 0.92% to $15,340 per ton, while SHFE nickel increased by 0.47% to 121,740 yuan per ton. LME inventory rose by 1,554 tons to 230,454 tons, while domestic SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 72 tons to 25,464 tons [2] - Nickel ore prices remained stable, and stainless steel weekly inventory showed a significant decrease. Nickel iron prices strengthened, providing cost support, although supply increased [2] - In the new energy sector, demand for ternary materials slightly weakened in September, but cobalt policies may lead to tight MHP supply. The overall nickel price may see slight upward movement due to macroeconomic factors and rising nickel iron and MHP prices, although inventory remains a significant resistance [2] Alumina, Electrolytic Aluminum & Aluminum Alloy - Alumina prices showed a weak trend, with AO2601 settling at 2,881 yuan per ton, down 0.62%. SHFE aluminum also experienced a slight decline, with AL2510 at 20,670 yuan per ton, down 0.07% [3] - Aluminum alloy prices remained strong, with AD2511 at 20,305 yuan per ton, up 0.22%. SMM alumina prices fell to 3,032 yuan per ton, while aluminum ingot prices showed a slight decrease [3] - The recovery of alumina plants has increased social inventory pressure, while domestic mines have not resumed production, leading to a decline in ore inventory. Overall, alumina remains bearish but may have reached a bottom [3] Industrial Silicon & Polysilicon - Industrial silicon prices showed a weak trend, with the main contract at 8,925 yuan per ton, down 2.3%. The reference price for industrial silicon was 9,604 yuan per ton, up 121 yuan from the previous trading day [4] - Polysilicon prices also declined, with the main contract at 50,260 yuan per ton, down 2.74%. The N-type polysilicon price rose to 52,500 yuan per ton, with a significant increase in the minimum delivery price [4] - The energy consumption policy draft for polysilicon has slightly raised standards, but the overall impact remains moderate. There is a strong sentiment for production and export in the polysilicon market, leading to a divergence between policy and actual supply-demand dynamics [4] Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate futures for the 2511 contract fell by 0.16% to 73,660 yuan per ton. The average price for battery-grade lithium carbonate remained at 73,850 yuan per ton, while industrial-grade was at 71,600 yuan per ton [5] - Import data showed that in August 2025, China imported 61.92 million tons of lithium spodumene, a decrease of 17.5% month-on-month. Carbonate imports increased by 57.8% month-on-month and 23.5% year-on-year [5] - Weekly production increased by 400 tons to 20,363 tons, with significant contributions from various lithium extraction methods. Inventory levels decreased by 981 tons to 137,531 tons, primarily driven by downstream replenishment [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Copper: Short - term copper prices are under slight pressure due to macro factors, supply tightness, and weak terminal consumption. The cross - market long - position arbitrage should be continued, and options should be on hold [4][11]. - Alumina: Alumina prices are expected to run weakly. The domestic and international spot prices are falling in resonance, and the fundamentals are in a weak trend [13][14]. - Aluminum: Aluminum prices are expected to remain weak in the short term until there is a significant improvement in consumption. Arbitrage and options should be on hold for now [19][22]. - Cast Aluminum Alloy: The price of cast aluminum alloy futures is expected to run weakly following the aluminum price. Arbitrage and options should be on hold [26][29]. - Zinc: Short - term zinc prices may fluctuate within a range. Overseas de - stocking may support zinc prices, but there is a risk of further decline if LME stocks increase significantly [32]. - Lead: Lead prices are expected to fluctuate at a high level. The supply may increase, and downstream enterprises may stock up before the holiday, resulting in a combination of long and short factors [37]. - Nickel: Nickel prices are expected to have a wide - range shock. Although demand is in the peak season, supply is growing faster, and the net import in September is expected to decline [42]. - Stainless Steel: Stainless steel prices are expected to maintain a volatile trend. Production has increased in September, but demand has not shown seasonal strength, and there is both supply pressure and cost support [49][51]. - Tin: Tin prices are expected to remain high and volatile. The supply of tin ore is still tight, and demand is sluggish, but there are signs of short - term supply improvement [55]. - Industrial Silicon: Industrial silicon prices may continue to correct in the short term. The inventory structure is "low at both ends and high in the middle", and the production of polysilicon in October and market sentiment have a greater impact on prices [63]. - Polysilicon: Polysilicon prices are expected to rise after a sufficient correction. Although there is a risk of demand decline in October, the spot price is firm under the restricted sales background [67]. - Lithium Carbonate: Lithium carbonate prices are expected to have a wide - range shock. The supply and demand are both strong, but there is hedging pressure and a slight increase in the customer - supplied ratio next month [70][72]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Market Review - **Copper**: The Shanghai Copper 2511 contract closed at 79,920 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.25%, and the Shanghai Copper index reduced its position by 10,887 lots to 466,700 lots. The spot prices in different regions showed different trends [2]. - **Alumina**: The 2601 contract of alumina decreased by 57 yuan to 2,877 yuan/ton. The spot prices in various regions also declined [8]. - **Aluminum**: The Shanghai Aluminum 2511 contract decreased by 85 yuan to 20,685 yuan/ton. The spot prices in different regions decreased by 70 yuan/ton [16]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: The 2511 contract of cast aluminum alloy decreased by 60 yuan to 20,255 yuan/ton. The spot prices in different regions remained flat [25]. - **Zinc**: The Shanghai Zinc 2511 decreased by 0.68% to 21,845 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai Zinc index increased its position by 10,195 lots to 250,300 lots. The spot market trading was not as good as the previous day [28][30]. - **Lead**: The Shanghai Lead 2511 decreased by 0.44% to 17,085 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai Lead index reduced its position by 1,965 lots to 99,000 lots. The spot price of SMM1 lead decreased by 25 yuan/ton [33]. - **Nickel**: The main contract of Shanghai Nickel NI2511 decreased by 720 to 120,910 yuan/ton, and the index increased its position by 4,391 lots. The premiums of different types of nickel remained unchanged [40]. - **Stainless Steel**: The main contract SS2511 of stainless steel decreased by 20 to 12,890 yuan/ton, and the index reduced its position by 4,758 lots. The spot prices of cold - rolled and hot - rolled stainless steel were in a certain range [47]. - **Tin**: The main contract of Shanghai Tin 2510 closed at 269,880 yuan/ton, a decline of 1,480 yuan/ton or 0.55%, and the position decreased by 1,058 lots to 52,059 lots. The spot price of tin decreased, and the trading atmosphere improved slightly [53]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The main contract of industrial silicon futures fluctuated narrowly, closing at 8,925 yuan/ton, a decline of 2.3%. The spot price remained stable [60][61]. - **Polysilicon**: The main contract of polysilicon futures increased its position and then decreased, and finally rebounded, closing at 50,260 yuan/ton, a decline of 2.745. The spot price remained stable [64]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The main contract 2511 of lithium carbonate decreased by 120 to 73,660 yuan/ton, and the index reduced its position by 19,991 lots. The Guangzhou Futures Exchange's warehouse receipts increased by 540 to 39,449 tons. The spot prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate remained unchanged [68]. Important Information - **Copper**: In August, China's copper concentrate imports increased, and the export of copper cables showed different performances in different regions. The copper mine supply was tight, and the production in some regions decreased [3][4]. - **Alumina**: There were transactions in the spot market, and the import and export volumes in August changed. The freight policy in Henan affected the inventory of downstream factories [9][10]. - **Aluminum**: There were diplomatic meetings, inventory changes, and information about the start - up of an overseas project. The import and export volumes of aluminum ingots in August also changed [17][18]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: A policy affected the recycled aluminum industry, and the social inventory of recycled aluminum alloy ingots changed. The Shanghai Futures Exchange started the standard warehouse receipt generation business for cast aluminum alloy [25]. - **Zinc**: The domestic refined zinc inventory changed, and the start - up rate of压铸 zinc alloy enterprises was affected by the typhoon [31]. - **Lead**: The import of lead concentrate increased, and the import and export of lead - acid batteries decreased [36]. - **Nickel**: There were some news about the mining company in Indonesia and the cobalt export policy in the Democratic Republic of the Congo [41]. - **Stainless Steel**: The import tariff affected the stainless steel market, and the import volume from Vietnam decreased. The apparent consumption of stainless steel in China increased [48]. - **Tin**: China's tin ore imports in August changed, and an Indonesian mining company planned to increase production. An American tin smelter started construction [54]. - **Industrial Silicon**: China's industrial silicon exports in August increased [62]. - **Polysilicon**: The national energy consumption data in August was released [65]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: There were news about the carbon emission trading market and the lithium production cooperation in Chile [69]. Logic Analysis - **Copper**: Macro factors, supply tightness, and weak terminal consumption led to short - term pressure on copper prices [4]. - **Alumina**: The domestic and international spot prices were falling in resonance, and the supply of bauxite was expected to increase, resulting in a weak fundamental trend [13]. - **Aluminum**: The Fed's attitude towards further interest rate cuts was cautious, and the domestic market needed to pay attention to downstream stocking before the holiday [19]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: Enterprises stocked up in advance, and the start - up rate of die - casting factories increased, so the alloy ingot price was expected to be stable and slightly strong [26]. - **Zinc**: The supply of refined zinc in September might decrease slightly, but it was still at a relatively high level. The downstream replenishment was expected to be limited, and the overseas de - stocking might support zinc prices [32]. - **Lead**: The supply of lead ingots might increase, and downstream enterprises might stock up before the holiday, resulting in a combination of long and short factors [37]. - **Nickel**: Although demand was in the peak season, supply was growing faster, and the net import in September was expected to decline [42]. - **Stainless Steel**: Production increased in September, but demand did not show seasonal strength, and there was both supply pressure and cost support [49][51]. - **Tin**: The supply of tin ore was still tight, and demand was sluggish, but there were signs of short - term supply improvement [55]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The inventory structure was "low at both ends and high in the middle", and the production of polysilicon in October and market sentiment had a greater impact on prices [63]. - **Polysilicon**: There was a short - term negative impact on the futures price, but the spot price was rising steadily, and it was recommended to buy after a sufficient correction [67]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The supply increase was limited in the short term, and demand was strong, but there was hedging pressure and a slight increase in the customer - supplied ratio next month [70][72]. Trading Strategies - **Copper**: Short - term short - selling for single - side trading, continue to hold cross - market long - position arbitrage, and hold options [11]. - **Alumina**: Single - side trading, expect prices to run weakly [14]. - **Aluminum**: Single - side trading, expect prices to remain weak in the short term; hold for arbitrage and options [22][23]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: Single - side trading, expect prices to run weakly following the aluminum price; hold for arbitrage and options [29]. - **Zinc**: Single - side trading, expect prices to fluctuate within a range; hold for arbitrage and options [32]. - **Lead**: Single - side trading, expect prices to fluctuate at a high level, and try short - selling at high prices; hold for arbitrage and options [38]. - **Nickel**: Single - side trading, expect wide - range shocks; hold for arbitrage and options [43][44][45]. - **Stainless Steel**: No specific trading strategy was mentioned in the report. - **Tin**: Single - side trading, expect high - level shocks [56]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Single - side trading, buy after the correction stabilizes; sell out - of - the - money put options; no arbitrage strategy [63]. - **Polysilicon**: Single - side trading, buy after a sufficient correction; conduct reverse arbitrage for the 2511 and 2512 contracts; no option strategy [67]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Single - side trading, expect wide - range shocks; hold for arbitrage; sell wide - straddle option combinations [73].

Report Summary 1. Overall Information - Report Title: Galaxies Non - ferrous Metals R & D Report - Non - ferrous and Precious Metals Daily Morning Observation - Date: September 23, 2025 2. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 3. Core Views - The precious metals market shows strong upward momentum, with gold hitting a new high and silver reaching its highest level since May 2011. The market is influenced by factors such as Fed interest rate expectations, geopolitical conflicts, and inflation concerns [2]. - The copper market is affected by macro - factors and supply - demand fundamentals. Although there is potential for further interest rate cuts, there are differences among policymakers. Supply is tight, and consumption shows a "peak season is not prosperous" situation [6][8]. - The alumina market has a weak fundamental trend, with domestic and foreign spot prices falling in resonance, and the import window opening slightly [11][13]. - The casting aluminum alloy market has a positive market expectation, with alloy ingot spot prices remaining stable and slightly strong [16][18]. - The electrolytic aluminum market is affected by Fed interest rate policies and domestic downstream demand. After the price correction, attention should be paid to the downstream stocking sentiment before the holidays [21][23]. - The zinc market has support at the bottom in the short term, and the price is expected to fluctuate within a range, mainly due to the potential reduction in domestic supply and the downstream pre - holiday stocking demand [25][26]. - The lead market has a situation where long and short factors are intertwined, and the price is expected to remain volatile at a high level [29][31]. - The nickel market maintains a wide - range oscillatory trend, with supply increasing faster than demand, and the price is affected by factors such as news from Indonesia and the Philippines [33][36]. - The stainless steel market is expected to remain oscillatory, with supply pressure above and support below due to factors such as production scheduling, inventory, and cost [39][42]. - The industrial silicon market may continue to correct in the short term, and the impact of polysilicon production scheduling and market sentiment on the price is greater [44][46]. - The polysilicon market has a long - term upward trend in spot prices, and the best strategy is to wait for the price to correct sufficiently before going long [48][50]. - The lithium carbonate market is expected to be oscillatory and slightly strong in the short term, with supply and demand both being strong [52][55]. - The tin market is expected to remain oscillatory at a high level, with tight supply at the mine end and weak demand [57][60]. 4. Summary by Metal Precious Metals - **Market Review** - Gold: London gold rose by over $60 during the day, hitting a new high of over $3740, and finally closed up 1.67% at $3746.63 per ounce. Shanghai gold futures rose 1.46% to 850.98 yuan per gram [2]. - Silver: London silver reached its highest level since May 2011, closing up 2.38% at $44.02 per ounce. Shanghai silver futures rose 1.77% to 10348 yuan per kilogram [2]. - Dollar Index: It first rose and then fell, ending a three - day winning streak, closing down 0.38% at 97.30 [2]. - US Treasury Yield: The 10 - year US Treasury yield continued to rebound, closing at 4.151% [2]. - RMB Exchange Rate: It fluctuated within a narrow range, closing down 0.07% at 7.1138 [2]. - **Important Information** - Fed officials' views are divided on further interest rate cuts. The probability of the Fed maintaining the interest rate unchanged in October is 10.2%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point cut is 89.8%. In December, the probability of maintaining the interest rate unchanged is 1.7%, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point cut is 23.1%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point cut is 75.3% [2]. - **Logic Analysis** - After the Fed cut interest rates by 25 bps last week, the expectation of two more cuts this year remains high. The risk of stagflation in the US still exists, and geopolitical conflicts occasionally emerge, driving gold prices higher. Silver shows greater upward elasticity [2]. - **Trading Strategy** - Unilateral: Continue the low - buying idea. - Arbitrage: Wait and see. - Options: Collar call options [4]. Copper - **Market Review** - Futures: The night - session Shanghai copper 2511 contract closed at 80100 yuan per ton, down 0.02%. The Shanghai copper index decreased by 6971 lots to 470,600 lots. LME copper closed at $10002 per ton, up 0.06% [6]. - Spot: LME inventory decreased by 2275 tons to 145,300 tons, and COMEX inventory increased by 1511 tons to 318,200 tons [6]. - **Important Information** - Sino - US leaders' phone call improved market sentiment. Fed officials have different views on further interest rate cuts. Argentina plans to develop copper resources [6][8]. - **Logic Analysis** - Macro - factors are positive, but there are differences among policymakers on interest rate cuts. Supply is tight due to production accidents and other reasons, and consumption is weak [8]. - **Trading Strategy** - Unilateral: The copper price may consolidate at a high level in the short term. - Arbitrage: Continue to hold cross - market positive arbitrage positions. - Options: Wait and see [9]. Alumina - **Market Review** - Futures: The night - session alumina 2601 contract decreased by 28 yuan to 2906 yuan per ton [11]. - Spot: The spot prices in various regions decreased, with the national weighted index down 1.2 yuan to 3009 yuan [11]. - **Important Information** - Xinjiang's alumina spot tender price decreased. The operating capacity increased slightly. Australian alumina prices decreased, and China's alumina import and export data changed [11][13]. - **Logic Analysis** - Domestic and foreign spot prices are falling, the import window is slightly open, and the fundamentals are weak [13]. - **Trading Strategy** - Unilateral: The alumina price is expected to be weak. - Arbitrage: Wait and see. - Options: Wait and see [14]. Casting Aluminum Alloy - **Market Review** - Futures: The night - session casting aluminum alloy 2511 contract decreased by 50 yuan to 20265 yuan per ton [16]. - Spot: The spot prices in various regions decreased by 100 yuan per ton [16]. - **Important Information** - Policies affect the recycled aluminum industry. The social inventory of recycled aluminum alloy ingots in some regions changed, and the Shanghai Futures Exchange launched the standard warehouse receipt generation business for casting aluminum alloy [18]. - **Logic Analysis** - Some enterprises are stocking up for the National Day holiday. The downstream production rate is rising, and the market expectation is positive [18]. - **Trading Strategy** - Unilateral: After the aluminum alloy futures price pulls back from a high level, pay attention to the rebound opportunity supported by fundamentals. - Arbitrage: Wait and see. - Options: Wait and see [19]. Electrolytic Aluminum - **Market Review** - Futures: The night - session Shanghai aluminum 2511 contract decreased by 55 yuan to 20715 yuan per ton [21]. - Spot: The spot prices in various regions decreased [21]. - **Important Information** - Sino - US leaders' phone call. The inventory of aluminum ingots increased slightly. An Indonesian electrolytic aluminum project is progressing as planned, and China's aluminum export data changed [21][23]. - **Logic Analysis** - The Fed is cautious about further interest rate cuts. Attention should be paid to downstream stocking sentiment before the holidays [23]. - **Trading Strategy** - Unilateral: After the aluminum price pulls back, pay attention to the opportunity of stabilizing and rebounding. - Arbitrage: Wait and see. - Options: Wait and see [23]. Zinc - **Market Review** - Futures: LME zinc rose 0.05% to $2900 per ton, and Shanghai zinc 2511 rose 0.18% to 22035 yuan per ton. The Shanghai zinc index decreased by 1558 lots to 238,500 lots [25]. - Spot: The spot price in Shanghai increased slightly, and the downstream buying sentiment was strong [25]. - **Important Information** - The domestic zinc ingot inventory decreased, and the import data of zinc concentrate and refined zinc changed [25][26]. - **Logic Analysis** - Domestic supply may decrease slightly, and downstream pre - holiday stocking demand exists. The LME zinc price is supported by inventory reduction [26]. - **Trading Strategy** - Unilateral: The zinc price may fluctuate within a range in the short term. - Arbitrage: Wait and see. - Options: Wait and see [27]. Lead - **Market Review** - Futures: LME lead fell 0.17% to $1999.5 per ton, and Shanghai lead 2511 rose 0.03% to 17165 yuan per ton. The Shanghai lead index increased by 862 lots to 101,800 lots [29]. - Spot: The average price of SMM1 lead was flat. The trading volume was limited due to limited supply and high prices of recycled refined lead [29]. - **Important Information** - The domestic lead ingot inventory decreased, and the import data of lead concentrate and lead - acid batteries changed [29][31]. - **Logic Analysis** - Supply may increase as some smelters plan to resume production, and downstream enterprises may stock up before the holiday. The price is expected to remain volatile at a high level [31]. - **Trading Strategy** - Unilateral: The lead price may remain volatile at a high level in the short term. - Arbitrage: Wait and see. - Options: Wait and see [34][32]. Nickel - **Market Review** - Futures: LME nickel fell $70 to $15200 per ton, and Shanghai nickel NI2511 fell 220 yuan to 121410 yuan per ton. The index position increased by 1326 lots [33]. - Spot: The premiums of different nickel products were flat [33]. - **Important Information** - Rumors about an Indonesian mining company were refuted. The Democratic Republic of the Congo may extend the cobalt export ban [33][36]. - **Logic Analysis** - The nickel price pulled back with the weak commodity market. Supply is increasing faster than demand, and the price is affected by news from Indonesia and the Philippines [36]. - **Trading Strategy** - Unilateral: Wide - range oscillation. - Arbitrage: Wait and see. - Options: Wait and see [37]. Stainless Steel - **Market Review** - Futures: The main SS2511 contract rose 25 yuan to 12935 yuan per ton, and the index position decreased by 1804 lots [39]. - Spot: The spot prices of cold - rolled and hot - rolled stainless steel were in a certain range [41]. - **Important Information** - US import tariffs affect the stainless steel market. Taiwan's imports from Vietnam decreased. China's stainless steel consumption increased [41]. - **Logic Analysis** - Production scheduling has increased, but demand has not shown seasonal strength. The price is expected to remain oscillatory [42]. - **Trading Strategy** - Unilateral: Wide - range oscillation. - Arbitrage: Wait and see [42]. Industrial Silicon - **Market Review** - Futures: The main industrial silicon futures contract decreased by 0.83% to 8950 yuan per ton, with significant position reduction [44]. - Spot: The spot price increased by 100 - 150 yuan per ton [44]. - **Important Information** - Yunnan silicon plants plan to reduce production due to electricity price increases. The inventory structure is "low at both ends and high in the middle" [46]. - **Logic Analysis** - The inventory structure is prone to positive feedback between futures and spot. The impact of polysilicon production scheduling and market sentiment on the price is greater [46]. - **Trading Strategy** - Unilateral: Participate after the price stabilizes from the correction. - Options: Look for opportunities to sell out - of - the - money put options. - Arbitrage: None [46]. Polysilicon - **Market Review** - Futures: The main polysilicon futures contract decreased by 3.63% to 50990 yuan per ton, with position increase [48]. - Spot: The spot price was stable [48]. - **Important Information** - Spain's self - use photovoltaic installation capacity has declined for three consecutive years [48]. - **Logic Analysis** - The spot price is likely to rise in the long term. There are short - term negative factors for futures, and the best strategy is to go long after the price correction [50]. - **Trading Strategy** - Unilateral: Go long after the price corrects sufficiently. - Arbitrage: Reverse arbitrage between 2511 and 2512 contracts. - Options: None [50]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review** - Futures: The main 2511 contract decreased by 140 yuan to 73480 yuan per ton. The position and warehouse receipts decreased [52]. - Spot: The spot prices of electric and industrial lithium carbonate increased [52]. - **Important Information** - Canada's renewable energy market has great potential, and China's lithium - ion battery export data increased [52][55]. - **Logic Analysis** - The price pulled back due to the weak commodity market. Supply growth is limited, and demand is strong. The price is expected to be oscillatory and slightly strong [55]. - **Trading Strategy** - Unilateral: Oscillatory and slightly strong. - Arbitrage: Wait and see. - Options: Sell out - of - the - money put options [55]. Tin - **Market Review** - Futures: The main Shanghai tin 2510 contract decreased by 0.28% to 270610 yuan per ton, and the position increased by 263 lots [57]. - Spot: The spot price rose, and the inventory decreased [57]. - **Important Information** - Sino - US relations and Fed officials' views. An Indonesian tin company expects to achieve its production target [57][59]. - **Logic Analysis** - Supply at the mine end is tight, and demand is weak. Attention should be paid to Myanmar's复产 and electronic consumption recovery [60]. - **Trading Strategy** - Unilateral: Remain oscillatory at a high level. - Options: Wait and see [61].

黄金方面： 本周美联储官员密集发表讲话，克利夫兰联储主席哈马克表示，通胀仍高于2%的目标，美联储在货币政策放松的问题上应保 持"非常谨慎"。圣路易斯联储主席穆萨穆勒表示因为就业市场的放缓，支持上一周的降息决定，不过通胀仍然偏高，进一步降 息的空间有限。 亚特兰大联储主席博斯蒂克表示，对上周的降息感到满意，但今年没太大必要进一步宽松。美联储主席鲍威尔今晚将发表讲 话，需密切留意。 百利好特约智昇研究黄金高级分析师欧文认为，近日多位美联储官员发表讲话，总体呈鹰派，降息的预期或出现波动，不过当 前市场押注降息的情绪明显，黄金表现依然强势。 原油方面： 上周五（9月19日），欧盟提出了对俄罗斯第十九轮制裁方案，将在2027年1月1日之前逐步停止进口俄罗斯的液化天然气，比原 计划的提前了一年时间。这一次的限制措施取消了此前所有的豁免，同时还针对俄罗斯的影子船队及其协助者。 国际能源署（IEA）的预测显示，全球原油供应已经进入加速增长阶段，到明年原油供应过剩的局面将更加严重，同时还表示 OPEC+、美国等非OPEC+产油国同时增产，导致原油供应远超需求。 技术面：原油日线震荡下行，上周三（9月17日）从64.73美元持续 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The Fed has entered a new round of interest - rate cut cycles, and the continued improvement of US manufacturing data is favorable for non - ferrous metals in the long - term. However, after the interest - rate cut is implemented, there will be a phased adjustment, and future trends depend on economic data [11]. - Different non - ferrous metals have different market conditions and investment strategies. For example, copper is recommended to go long on dips; zinc can be moderately long on dips; the aluminum industry chain is recommended to be short; tin short - term long positions can be appropriately taken profit; lead can be long on dips; nickel and stainless steel can be long on dips [3][4][5][6][7][8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 First Part: Non - ferrous Metal Operation Logic and Investment Suggestions - **Macro Logic**: The Fed cut interest rates by 25bp, starting a new round of interest - rate cut cycles. China's one - year and five - year LPR in September remained unchanged. China's central bank adheres to an independent monetary policy and implements a moderately loose monetary policy. After the interest - rate cut, there was a phased adjustment, and future trends depend on economic data [11]. - **This Week's Focus**: The release of August PCE and September European and American manufacturing PMIs, intensive speeches by Fed officials including Powell, the release of China's September LPR, and the participation of Pan Gongsheng, Wu Qing, and Li Yunze in the "14th Five - Year Plan" series of press conferences [12]. - **Non - ferrous Metal Strategies**: Different non - ferrous metals have different operation logics, support and pressure areas, market judgments, and investment strategies. For example, copper is expected to strengthen in shock and is recommended to go long on dips; zinc will fluctuate in a range and can be long on dips; the aluminum industry chain is expected to be weak and is recommended to be short; tin will rebound in shock and short - term long positions can be reduced; lead will fluctuate upward and can be long on dips; nickel and stainless steel are recommended to be long on dips [13][14][15]. 3.2 Second Part: Non - ferrous Metal Market Review The closing prices and price changes of various non - ferrous metals are presented. For example, copper closed at 80160 with a 0.31% increase; zinc closed at 22090 with a 0.20% increase; aluminum closed at 20745 with a 0.24% decrease, etc. [16]. 3.3 Third Part: Non - ferrous Metal Position Analysis The latest position analysis of the non - ferrous metal sector shows the net long - short strength comparison, net long - short position differences, changes in net long and net short positions, and influencing factors of different varieties such as silver, gold, tin, copper, etc. [18]. 3.4 Fourth Part: Non - ferrous Metal Spot Market The spot prices and price changes of various non - ferrous metals are provided. For example, the Yangtze River Non - ferrous copper spot price is 80340 yuan/ton with a 0.24% increase; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous 0 zinc spot average price is 21960 yuan/ton with a 0.14% decrease, etc. [19][21]. 3.5 Fifth Part: Non - ferrous Metal Industry Chain Graphs related to the industry chain of various non - ferrous metals are presented, including inventory changes, processing fees, price trends, etc. For example, for copper, there are graphs of exchange copper inventory changes and SMM social copper inventory changes; for zinc, there are graphs of zinc inventory changes and zinc concentrate processing fee changes [23][27]. 3.6 Sixth Part: Non - ferrous Metal Arbitrage Graphs related to non - ferrous metal arbitrage are presented, including changes in the Shanghai - London ratio, basis spreads, and price differences between different varieties. For example, for copper, there are graphs of copper Shanghai - London ratio changes and the basis spread between Shanghai copper and London copper [56]. 3.7 Seventh Part: Non - ferrous Metal Options Graphs related to non - ferrous metal options are presented, including historical volatility, weighted implied volatility, trading volume, and open - interest changes. For example, for copper, there are graphs of copper option historical volatility and copper option weighted implied volatility [72].

更多分析师加入看多更多贵金属行列。 美联储降息预期、避险需求叠加投资热情，推动金价在今日（23日）亚太交易时段再创3749.27美元/盎司的历史 新高。白银也连续上涨三日，逼近44美元/盎司的逾14年新高。市场正密切关注白银能否突破1980年1月的历史收 盘高点48.70美元/盎司。 金银比翼同飞之际，以大宗商品全球主管马克西米利安·莱顿（Maximilian Layton）为首德花旗策略师团队预 测，"在美联储新鸽派领导层在2026年5~6月上任的前景、美国实际利率下降及美元承压的推动下，黄金和白银的 牛市行情将进一步扩大，并最终在2026年延伸至铜和铝领域。" 金价又又又创新高，开启长牛模式 金价今日微涨至3749.27美元/盎司，此前两个交易日连续上涨。 本轮金价上涨最直接的引擎，无疑来自于市场对美联储将进一步降息的强烈预期。虽然美联储主席鲍威尔仍强调 未来降息路径将保持谨慎，但市场仍预计美联储未来将大幅降息。 瑞士宝盛新世纪思维研究主管曼克（Carsten Menke）在降息前后对一财记者表示，过去几周，货币政策无疑是投 资需求增加的主要推动力，短线交易员与市场跟风者担心自己会错过这一波上涨，进一步推 ...

Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - After the Fed cut interest rates by 25bp as expected, the market quickly digested the expectation and shifted to a volatile state. The technology sector still dominates the market. With the holiday approaching, capital activity has declined [2]. - Without incremental negative factors, 1.8% may be the high point for the 10 - year Treasury yield, but in the absence of strong positive factors, the short - term downward movement of the yield is also limited, with resistance around 1.75% [2]. - Gold remains in a high - level volatile state, and its volatility may rise again. Silver has high upward elasticity driven by突发事件 but the sentiment fades quickly [2]. - The EC futures contract continues to decline, and the main contract is weakly volatile [2]. - Steel exports support the valuation of the black commodity sector, and the spread between hot - rolled and rebar contracts is narrowing [2]. - The decline in iron ore shipments, the rebound in molten iron production, and the restocking demand support the strong price of iron ore [2]. - Coal prices at production areas are stable with a slight upward trend, and downstream restocking demand supports the upward trend of coal futures [2]. - The copper market is in a volatile consolidation phase, and the spot trading volume is good below 80,000 [2]. - There are more supply - side disturbances in Guinea for aluminum, and it is expected to fluctuate widely around the bottom of 2900 in the short term [2]. - The supply of tin ore imports remained low in August, providing fundamental support [2]. - Concerns about marginal increases in oil supply have led to a downward shift in short - term oil prices, but geopolitical factors still provide some support [2]. - The high supply pressure of urea persists, and the progress of urea factory orders before the National Day needs attention [2]. - The supply - demand outlook for PX has further weakened, and the cost side is also weak, putting short - term pressure on prices [2]. - The supply - demand situation of PTA has improved slightly but remains weak in the medium term, with limited driving forces [2]. - The short - fiber market has no obvious short - term drivers and follows the raw material price fluctuations [2]. - The demand for bottle - grade polyester chips has improved temporarily, but the supply - demand pattern remains loose, with limited upside for processing fees [2]. - The new ethylene glycol plant commissioning expectation and the weak terminal market put pressure on the upside of MEG [2]. - With the holiday approaching, the mid - stream of caustic soda is in a wait - and - see mode, and the spot price is under pressure [2]. - The spot procurement enthusiasm for PVC is average, and the market is in a volatile state [2]. - The supply - demand outlook for pure benzene has weakened, and the price driving force is limited [2]. - The weak oil price expectation puts pressure on the absolute price of styrene [2]. - The cost and supply - demand drivers for synthetic rubber are limited, and it may follow the trends of natural rubber and other commodities [2]. - The sentiment in the LLDPE spot market has weakened, and the basis remains stable [2]. - The number of PP plant overhauls has increased, and the trading volume is average [2]. - The port inventory of methanol has been accumulating, and the price is weak [2]. - After Argentina取消 the export tax, the two -粕 market is under pressure again [2]. - The pig slaughter pressure is high, and the spot price is unlikely to improve before the National Day [2]. - Under the bearish expectation, the corn futures price continues to decline [2]. - The Sino - US talks did not release incremental positive factors, and the oilseed market is in a volatile adjustment phase [2]. - The overseas sugar supply outlook is broad [2]. - With new cotton gradually coming onto the market, the supply pressure is increasing [2]. - The local domestic sales in the egg market still provide some support for demand, but the long - term trend is bearish [2]. - The early Fuji apples are traded at negotiated prices, and the sales volume is acceptable [2]. - The spot price of red dates fluctuates slightly, and the futures market is in a volatile state [2]. - The overall sentiment in the soda ash market has declined, and the price is trending weakly [2]. - The production and sales of glass have weakened, and the futures price has declined [2]. - Affected by typhoon weather, the rubber price is strongly volatile in the short term [2]. - The market sentiment for industrial silicon has weakened, and the price has declined [2]. - Affected by fundamental sentiment, the polysilicon price has dropped significantly [2]. - With no new news, the market sentiment for lithium carbonate is temporarily stable, and the fundamentals are in a tight balance during the peak season [2]. Summaries by Categories Equity Index Futures - Recommend selling short - term put options on the IF2509, IH2509, IC2509, and MO2511 contracts near the strike price of 6600 when the index pulls back to collect option premiums [2]. Treasury Futures - The T2512 contract is expected to fluctuate between 107.5 and 108.35. For single - side strategies, investors are advised to trade within the range, and consider going long lightly when the price pulls back to the low level if the market sentiment stabilizes, but should pay attention to taking profits in time. For the spot - futures strategy, the basis of the TL contract is oscillating at a high level, and investors can appropriately participate in the basis narrowing strategy [2]. Precious Metals - For gold, consider buying at low levels or buying out - of - the - money call options instead of going long. For silver, sell out - of - the - money put options when the price is high [2]. Freight Index Futures (EC) - Consider the spread arbitrage between the December and October contracts [2]. Black Commodities - For steel, try to go long on pullbacks and narrow the spread between the January hot - rolled and rebar contracts. For iron ore, go long on the 2601 contract at low levels, with the reference range of 780 - 850, and consider a long - iron - ore short - hot - rolled strategy. For coking coal, go long on the 2601 contract at low levels, with the reference range of 1150 - 1300, and consider a long - coking - coal short - coke strategy. For coke, go long on the 2601 contract at low levels, with the reference range of 1650 - 1800, and consider a long - coking - coal short - coke strategy [2]. Non - ferrous Metals - For copper, the main contract reference range is 79,000 - 81,000. For aluminum, the main contract reference range is 20,600 - 21,000. For aluminum alloy, the main contract reference range is 20,200 - 20,600. For zinc, the main contract reference range is 21,500 - 22,500 [2][3]. Energy and Chemicals - For crude oil, temporarily observe on the single - side, with the support range of WTI at [60, 61], Brent at [63, 64], and SC at [467, 474]. For urea, wait for the implied volatility to rise and then narrow it. For PX, short on rebounds following the crude oil trend and pay attention to the support around 6500. For PTA, short on rebounds following the crude oil trend, pay attention to the support around 4500, and consider a rolling reverse spread strategy between the January and May contracts. For short - fiber, the single - side strategy is the same as PTA, and the processing fee oscillates between 800 - 1100. For bottle - grade polyester chips, the single - side strategy is the same as PTA, and the processing fee is expected to fluctuate between 350 - 500. For ethylene glycol, sell call options on rallies and consider a reverse spread strategy between the January and May contracts. For caustic soda, adopt a short - selling strategy. For PVC, observe. For pure benzene, it will follow the benzene - ethylene and oil price fluctuations in the short term. For benzene - ethylene, short on absolute price rebounds and widen the spread between the November benzene - ethylene and November pure - benzene contracts. For synthetic rubber, pay attention to the support around 11,400. For LLDPE, observe near the previous low. For PP, observe in the short term. For methanol, observe as the downward space is currently limited [2]. Agricultural Products - For soybeans and rapeseed meal, adjust weakly in the short term. For live pigs, pay attention to the reverse spread opportunities between the January - May and March - July contracts. For corn, it is in a weak trend. For oils, the main palm oil contract adjusts weakly in the short term. For sugar, hold short positions. For cotton, adopt a short - selling strategy in the short term. For eggs, control the short - position size. For apples, the main contract runs around 8300. For red dates, it is bearish in the medium - to - long term. For soda ash, observe. For glass, observe. For rubber, observe. For industrial silicon, the main price fluctuation range is expected to be between 8000 - 9500 yuan/ton. For polysilicon, observe temporarily. For lithium carbonate, the main contract is expected to run between 70,000 - 75,000 [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The current stance of China's monetary policy is supportive, implementing a moderately loose monetary policy. The market risk appetite has increased due to the strengthened expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut, and the US stock market has reached a record high [1]. - The Chinese capital market is in the initial stage of strategic allocation. The CSI 500 and CSI 1000 indices, which are rich in technology - growth components, are more aggressive, while the SSE 50 and CSI 300 indices, which are rich in dividend - blue - chip components, are more defensive [4][11]. - With the Fed entering the interest rate cut cycle, the policy space for the domestic central bank has expanded, but the short - term capital market has tightened, and the bond futures prices have fluctuated at a low level [13]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Key Varieties - **Fats and Oils**: The night - session of fats and oils was weak. The production and export of Malaysian palm oil decreased in early September, and Argentina's cancellation of export taxes on soybean oil and soybean meal dragged down the short - term performance of the fats and oils sector [2][29]. - **Gold**: After the Fed's interest rate decision, gold and silver initially declined and then strengthened again, reaching a new high this week. The long - term driving force for gold remains clear, and the expectation of further interest rate cuts by the Fed has continued the bullish sentiment [3][20]. - **Stock Index**: The US stock market rose. The previous trading day's stock index rebounded. The 9 - month trend was more volatile, in the high - level consolidation stage, but the long - term strategic allocation period of the Chinese capital market has just begun [4][11]. 3.2 Main News on the Day - **International News**: The Indian Minister of Commerce and Industry will visit the US to reach a "mutually beneficial" trade agreement, indicating a relaxation of tensions between the two countries [6]. - **Domestic News**: Since the implementation of the "9·24" package of policies, the "stability" foundation of China's capital market has been continuously consolidated, and the "vibrant" ecosystem has been accelerating. The number of new A - share accounts in August increased significantly [7]. - **Industry News**: The State Council's Food Safety Office is promoting the formulation of national standards for pre - made dishes and the explicit use of pre - made dishes in the catering industry [8]. 3.3 Daily Returns of Overseas Markets - The FTSE China A50 futures rose 0.45%, ICE Brent crude oil fell 0.15%, ICE 11 - sugar fell 2.04%, and other varieties showed different degrees of change [9]. 3.4 Morning Comments on Main Varieties - **Financial**: - **Stock Index**: Similar to the previous analysis, the short - term is in a high - level consolidation stage, and the long - term is in the strategic allocation period [11]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Bond prices rose slightly. The central bank carried out a 14 - day reverse repurchase operation. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [13]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: - **Crude Oil**: Night - session oil prices continued to fall. Iraq plans to resume oil exports, and the market is concerned about OPEC's production increase [14]. - **Methanol**: Methanol prices fell at night. The overall inventory of coastal methanol is rising, and it is expected to be short - term bearish [15]. - **Rubber**: Natural rubber prices stopped falling and stabilized. Supply is expected to increase, and there is a possibility of a short - term rebound [16]. - **Polyolefins**: Polyolefin prices fell. The market is expected to fluctuate in a low - level range [17][18]. - **Glass and Soda Ash**: Glass and soda ash futures prices fell. The market is in the process of inventory digestion, and attention is paid to the consumption in autumn [19]. - **Metals**: - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver prices reached a new high. The long - term driving force for gold is clear, and the bullish sentiment continues [20]. - **Copper**: Copper prices fell slightly at night. The market is affected by multiple factors and may fluctuate within a range [21]. - **Zinc**: Zinc prices fell slightly at night. The supply may be in surplus in the short term, and prices may fluctuate weakly within a range [22]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Weekly production increased, inventory decreased, and prices may fluctuate in the short term [23][24]. - **Black Metals**: - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The main contracts fluctuated in a narrow range, showing a high - level oscillating trend [25]. - **Iron Ore**: Steel mills have resumed production, and iron ore demand is supported. The market is expected to be oscillating and bullish [26]. - **Steel**: The supply pressure of steel is increasing, and the market supply - demand contradiction is not significant. The market is bullish, with hot - rolled coils stronger than rebar [27]. - **Agricultural Products**: - **Protein Meal**: Bean and rapeseed meal prices fell significantly at night. The US soybean harvest pressure will gradually emerge, and bean meal is expected to be under pressure [28]. - **Fats and Oils**: Similar to the previous analysis, the short - term performance is weak [29][30]. - **Sugar**: International sugar prices are in a stage of inventory accumulation and are expected to be weak. Domestic sugar prices are supported by low inventory but are also affected by import pressure [31]. - **Cotton**: International cotton prices have limited upward momentum, and domestic cotton prices are also under pressure. The short - term is expected to be oscillating and weak [32]. - **Shipping Index**: - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The EC index fluctuated, and the spot freight rate accelerated its decline at the end of September. The decline rate may slow down after the National Day, and attention is paid to the shipping companies' price - cut rhythm [33].

Group 1 - Spot gold prices rose on September 22, breaking the $3,700 mark and reaching a new high, while domestic futures saw the Shanghai gold main contract increase by over 2%, closing at 846.50 yuan [1] - Following the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut decision, gold's strong performance continued, with 10 Fed officials supporting three or more rate cuts this year, and the market expecting a 92% probability of a rate cut in October [1] - Geopolitical risks and global economic concerns continue to bolster gold's status as a preferred asset for risk hedging, with central banks expected to maintain strong gold purchases between 900 to 950 tons this year [1] Group 2 - In the context of the Fed's rate cuts, various industrial metals also saw price increases, with Shanghai silver rising by 3.81% to 10,317 yuan per kilogram, setting a new historical high [4] - The copper market is experiencing stable growth due to demand from green energy transitions and artificial intelligence, despite supply disruptions [4] - The rare earth market is seeing increased overseas orders following China's export controls, with expectations for price stabilization and profit recovery for related companies [4] Group 3 - The valuation of the non-ferrous metals index is approximately 24 times earnings, which is at the 35th percentile historically, indicating potential for further valuation recovery [5] - Investors are encouraged to participate in the market through mining ETFs and non-ferrous 60 ETFs [5]