Core Viewpoint - The 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China emphasizes promoting high-quality development in the real estate sector, indicating a shift towards better housing quality and urban renewal during the 14th Five-Year Plan period [1][2]. Group 1: Real Estate Market Adjustments - The current real estate market in China is still in an adjustment phase, with a focus on achieving higher living standards during the 14th Five-Year Plan [1]. - The development of the real estate industry will center around creating "good houses" and urban renewal, with new supply generating new demand [1]. Group 2: Risk Management and Regulation - The real estate industry must prioritize risk prevention, enhancing regulation throughout the entire process of entry, construction, operation, and exit [1]. - A coordinated financing mechanism for urban real estate will be established, along with a "white list" system for projects to ensure the delivery of commodity housing [1]. Group 3: Service Enhancement in Real Estate - Future real estate development should focus on lifecycle services rather than just construction, emphasizing the importance of both hardware and service quality [2]. - The property service sector is seen as having significant growth potential, which has been largely underestimated, and efforts should be made to improve service levels in areas such as elderly care, childcare, and household services [2].

曾经被视为"稳赚不赔"的房子，如今却成了不少人的噩梦。 一夜之间，房价又给我们开了个天大的玩笑！ 今天，我刷到一个广东女博主的视频。 她说广州的房东实在太惨了！今年房价和房租都跌，短短几个月平均跌幅达到了20%到30%。 她举了个例子，珠江新城某小区三房单位，今年年初还能租到1万，现在只能租8千。 留言区也是一片哀嚎，全是同样遭遇的人在吐槽。 从涨不停到跌不休 曾几何时，房价"永远涨"的观念深入人心，大家都觉得房子是最保值、最靠谱的投资。 可谁能想到，如今的楼市就像坐了过山车一样，一路狂泄。 比如广州，二手房均价从曾经的2.93万/平，跌到了如今的2.09万/平，每平方米缩水超8000元。 这可不是个小数目啊！广州珠江新城CBD核心的某小区，部分70㎡小户型在短短两年内，暴跌555万元，单价直接腰斩，从14万元/㎡跌到了6万元/㎡。 这房价跌得，简直让人心惊肉跳！ 再看上海，上半年二手房成交13万套，是新房的5.3倍。 北京二手房成交量是新房的4.8倍，广州是1.9倍，深圳是1.3倍。 二手房全面碾压新房，为啥？ 还不是因为业主们都在拼命降价抛售！ 过去那种"卖方市场"的风光早已不在，现在买房的人可悠闲了，慢 ...

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market is undergoing a significant transformation, moving from reliance on policy stimulus to a more self-sustaining recovery, with a shift in focus towards new housing models and economic stability rather than aggressive growth [1][4][10]. Group 1: Policy and Economic Context - No new major loosening policies for the real estate market were introduced in September and October, with the five-year LPR remaining unchanged at 3.5% for five consecutive months [1]. - Banks are reluctant to lower LPR due to pressure from declining net interest margins, which fell to 1.42% in Q2, below the 1.8% warning line [2]. - Economic recovery provides confidence to policymakers, with GDP growth targets set around 5%, showing a gradual decline from 5.4% in Q1 to 4.8% in Q3, indicating stability without the need for aggressive interest rate cuts [4]. Group 2: Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - The perception of the real estate market has shifted from "stopping the decline" to "stabilizing," reflecting a fundamental change in policy thinking as the most dangerous phase has passed [6]. - The worst moments for the real estate sector appear to be over, with improvements in project delivery and a reduction in corporate defaults, although prices continue to decline [6]. - The upcoming 15th Five-Year Plan will focus on a "new model" for real estate, emphasizing rental housing, affordable housing, and commercial housing to meet diverse housing needs [8]. Group 3: Long-term Industry Dynamics - Real estate remains a pillar industry but is no longer the primary driver of economic growth; instead, it serves as a stabilizing force [10]. - Over the long term, as the economy recovers and household incomes rise, property prices in many cities are expected to gradually increase, leading to a healthier industry structure [10]. - The current state of the real estate market is characterized by "weak recovery and strong differentiation," with the need for foundational reforms and time to solidify price stability [12].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints The report provides a weekly economic analysis from October 19 - October 25, 2025, covering various aspects including industrial production, personnel and freight flow, consumption, investment, exports, and performance of major asset classes, along with important policies and events [1]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Major Asset Classes - This week, bond indices showed mixed performance, stock indices generally rose, most commodities increased, and foreign currencies generally fell. Among bond indices, the ChinaBond Corporate Bond AAA and AA+ indices had the highest weekly gains of 0.14%, while the ChinaBond 10 - year Treasury Bond index had the largest weekly decline of 0.13%. The ChiNext index led the stock market with a weekly gain of 8.05%. The Nanhua Energy and Chemicals Index in commodities rose the most, by 3.66%, and the Nanhua Precious Metals Index fell the most, by 6.69%. Foreign currencies depreciated against the RMB, with the Japanese yen having the largest weekly decline of 2.06%, and the US dollar depreciated by 0.05% [1]. 3.2. Industrial Production - Production performed well. In the upstream sector, the weekly coal consumption in the national power plant sample area decreased by 1.27% week - on - week, the petroleum asphalt plant operating rate increased by 1.30 pcts to 35.80%, the blast furnace operating rate increased by 0.48 pcts to 84.73%, and the crude steel output decreased by 0.89%. In the real - estate chain, the rebar operating rate increased by 1.64 pcts to 42.97%, the float glass operating rate remained flat at 76.65%, and the mill operating rate increased by 0.38 pcts to 38.27%. In the consumer goods chain, the polyester filament operating rate remained flat at 91.04%, the PTA operating rate increased by 0.42 pcts to 75.98%, and the methanol operating rate decreased by 1.67 pcts to 82.71%. In the automotive chain, the semi - steel tire operating rate increased by 0.95 pcts to 73.67%, and the full - steel tire operating rate increased by 1.06 pcts to 65.58% [1]. 3.3. Personnel and Freight Flow - Personnel flow continued to rise, and freight prices increased slightly. The 7 - day moving average (7DMA) of the national migration scale index increased by 6.68% week - on - week. The 7DMA of domestic flight operations increased by 1.53%, while that of international flights decreased by 0.79%. The subway passenger volumes in Beijing, Shenzhen, and Guangzhou increased, while that in Shanghai decreased. The 4 - week moving average (4WMA) of the road logistics freight rate index increased by 0.01% week - on - week, and the total volume was higher than the same period in previous years [1]. 3.4. Consumption - The growth rate of automobile sales declined, and price performance continued to diverge. The previous period's automobile wholesale increased by 1.00% year - on - year, while retail sales decreased by 3.00%. Both the 4WMA of the wholesale and retail year - on - year growth rates declined. This period's movie box office decreased by 39% week - on - week, and the 7DMA of the number of moviegoers decreased by 41%. Agricultural product prices showed divergence, with pork prices decreasing by 1.66% week - on - week and vegetable prices increasing by 5.65% [1]. 3.5. Investment - Construction showed good performance, while the commercial housing market declined. The cement inventory - to - capacity ratio increased by 0.2 pcts week - on - week, the cement price index increased by 0.23%, and the cement shipping rate increased by 0.6 pcts. Rebar inventory decreased by 4.1% week - on - week, the proportion of profitable steel mills nationwide decreased by 7.8 pcts, and the apparent demand for rebar increased by 2.8%. Overall, the terminal demand for construction was good. The 7DMA of the commercial housing transaction area in 30 large - and medium - sized cities decreased by 7.3% week - on - week. By city tier, the transaction area in first - tier cities increased, while those in second - and third - tier cities decreased. The 7DMA of the second - hand housing transaction area in 16 cities decreased by 4.7%, and the national second - hand housing listing price index decreased by 0.2%. The land transaction area in 100 large - and medium - sized cities increased, and the land transaction premium rate increased week - on - week [1]. 3.6. Exports - Port throughput increased, and shipping indices showed divergence. Port cargo throughput increased by 2.5% week - on - week, and container throughput increased by 3.6%. The BDI index decreased by 3.77% week - on - week, while the domestic SCFI and CCFI indices increased by 7.11% and 2.02% respectively [1]. 3.7. Important Policies/Events - In the third quarter of 2025, the economic growth rate declined; the October LPR quote remained unchanged; a new round of China - US trade consultations started on the 24th in Malaysia; the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China successfully concluded; the central bank announced a 900 - billion - yuan MLF operation on October 27 [1].

Inflation Trends - September CPI year-on-year growth increased to 3%, while month-on-month growth slightly decreased to 0.3%[4] - Core CPI year-on-year fell by 0.1 percentage points to 3%, with a month-on-month decline as well[4] - Energy inflation rose, with the CPI energy component year-on-year growth increasing to 2.8%, up 2.6 percentage points from the previous month[10] Commodity and Service Inflation - Core commodity year-on-year growth remained stable at 1.5%, with a slight month-on-month decline[11] - Used car prices showed a slowdown in growth, indicating a lack of sustained upward momentum in future automotive inflation[11] - Core service year-on-year growth decreased to 3.5%, down 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, with transportation services also declining by 1 percentage point to 2.5%[16] Economic Outlook - The expectation for two more interest rate cuts within the year has been reinforced following the inflation data release[20] - The overall inflation performance is moderate, lacking significant upward momentum, which paves the way for the Federal Reserve to continue lowering interest rates[20] - Risks include potential unexpected downturns in the U.S. economy and tighter monetary policy from the Federal Reserve[22]

Core Viewpoint - The company, Zhuhai Zhimian Group, is divesting its real estate business to focus on its core duty-free business, aiming for profitability and a streamlined asset structure [2][4][5]. Group 1: Transaction Details - Zhuhai Zhimian Group announced the transfer of its 100% stake in Zhuhai Gree Real Estate Co., Ltd. to Zhuhai Toujie Holdings Co., Ltd. [2] - The transaction price is yet to be determined, and it is expected to constitute a significant asset restructuring without changing the controlling shareholder [3][4]. - The company plans to complete the divestment of its real estate business within five years, ceasing all real estate operations thereafter [2][3]. Group 2: Financial Performance - For the first half of the year, Zhuhai Zhimian Group reported a revenue of 1.74 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 45.62%, with a net loss of 274 million yuan [6]. - The decline in revenue is attributed to a significant drop in real estate project income following a major asset swap completed in 2024 [6]. - The real estate segment's revenue was approximately 425 million yuan, down over 70% year-on-year, while the duty-free business generated 1.13 billion yuan in revenue, contributing positively to the company's financial health [6]. Group 3: Strategic Focus - The company aims to pivot towards a large consumer strategy, focusing on duty-free operations and optimizing its asset structure to enhance operational efficiency [4][5]. - The divestment aligns with a broader trend in the industry where companies are shedding real estate operations to pursue new growth avenues [8]. - Following the transfer of shares to Huafa Group, Zhuhai Zhimian Group intends to leverage Huafa's resources to improve its strategic operations and profitability [8].

Core Insights - The real estate market in Yunnan is experiencing a significant increase in external buyers, with 31.7% of property purchases made by non-local individuals in 2024, indicating a growing trend of external investment in the region [1][12][10] Group 1: Market Performance - From January to September 2024, Yunnan's commercial housing sales area reached approximately 14.49 million square meters, a year-on-year increase of 5.7%, outperforming the national average growth rate by 11.2 percentage points [1] - The sales area of second-hand homes in Yunnan also saw a year-on-year increase of 13.5%, totaling 15.85 million square meters [1] - In contrast, the national real estate market faced a decline, with new commercial housing sales area dropping by 5.5% and sales revenue decreasing by 7.9% during the same period [9] Group 2: Buyer Demographics - A notable 74.9% of property purchases in Xishuangbanna are made by external buyers, with other cities like Baoshan, Chuxiong, and Lijiang also showing high percentages above 40% [1] - The trend of external buyers is not limited to investment; many are also seeking properties for personal use, reflecting a desire for a slower lifestyle in Yunnan [5][15] Group 3: Investment Potential - Yunnan's real estate market is seen as having significant potential for growth, with local government officials emphasizing the need to accelerate real estate development over the next 3 to 5 years [10] - The province's appeal is bolstered by its tourism sector, which saw 41.51 million visitors during the recent holiday period, contributing to a tourism revenue of 56.87 billion yuan, marking a year-on-year increase of 10.7% [11] Group 4: Challenges and Concerns - The rising proportion of external buyers has raised concerns about high vacancy rates and an oversupply of vacation rentals, which could lead to lower occupancy rates in some communities [2][15] - The local hospitality market, particularly in areas like Lijiang and Dali, is facing a competitive landscape, with many property owners looking to convert their homes into short-term rentals or guesthouses [15][17] Group 5: Recommendations for Buyers - Potential buyers are advised to assess their investment capabilities and market conditions before making purchases, with suggestions to start small and gradually expand their investments [18] - It is recommended that individuals consider their personal circumstances and needs when deciding to invest in Yunnan real estate, particularly for those who may not be looking to relocate permanently [18]

Core Insights - A-share companies have reported strong performance in Q3 2025, with over 400 companies disclosing their earnings, showcasing significant revenue and profit growth across various sectors [2] Company Performance Summaries - **Ecovacs (科沃斯)**: Q3 revenue reached 4.2 billion yuan, up 29.26% year-on-year; net profit soared to 438 million yuan, a staggering increase of 7160.87%. For the first three quarters, revenue was 12.877 billion yuan, up 25.93%, and net profit was 1.418 billion yuan, up 130.55% [2] - **Tianbao Infrastructure (天保基建)**: Reported Q3 revenue of 2.32 billion yuan, a 47.99% increase year-on-year; net profit was 64.61 million yuan, up 7158.91%. For the first three quarters, revenue was 2.32 billion yuan, up 47.99% [4] - **Shanhe Intelligent (山河智能)**: First three quarters revenue was 5.057 billion yuan, down 2.08%; net profit was 966.47 million yuan, up 177.57%. Q3 revenue was 1.646 billion yuan, up 8.07%, with net profit at 46.77 million yuan, up 6750.18% [6] - **Suobede (硕贝德)**: Q3 revenue reached 782 million yuan, a 53.05% increase; net profit was 17.18 million yuan, up 3052.98%. For the first three quarters, revenue was 1.989 billion yuan, up 50.25%, and net profit was 50.71 million yuan, up 1290.66% [7] - **Antong Holdings (安通控股)**: Q3 revenue was 2.152 billion yuan, up 18.85%; net profit reached 152 million yuan, up 2155.18%. For the first three quarters, revenue was 6.537 billion yuan, up 22.65%, and net profit was 664 million yuan, up 311.77% [8] - **Guoxuan High-Tech (国轩高科)**: Q3 revenue was 10.114 billion yuan, up 20.68%; net profit was 2.167 billion yuan, up 1434.42%. For the first three quarters, revenue was 29.508 billion yuan, up 17.21%, and net profit was 2.533 billion yuan, up 514.35% [9]

Core Insights - The People's Bank of China reported that by the end of Q3 2025, the total balance of RMB loans from financial institutions reached 270.39 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 6.6% [1] - The report highlights a significant increase in medium to long-term loans for the industrial sector, with a balance of 26.59 trillion yuan, growing by 9.7% year-on-year, which is 3.2 percentage points higher than the overall loan growth rate [1] - The report indicates strong support for technology-driven small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs), with 27.54 million SMEs receiving loans, achieving a loan acquisition rate of 50.3%, an increase of 2.8 percentage points from the previous year [1] Loan Categories Summary - Industrial medium to long-term loans showed robust growth, with heavy industry loans at 22.6 trillion yuan (up 9.3%) and light industry loans at 3.99 trillion yuan (up 12.3%) [1] - The balance of medium to long-term loans in the service sector reached 72.36 trillion yuan, growing by 6.8% year-on-year, with non-real estate service loans increasing by 7.5% [1] - The report noted a steady growth in loans to enterprises and institutions, rapid growth in inclusive micro and small loans, and a consistent increase in agricultural loans, while real estate loan growth remained stable [2]

明明（中信证券首席经济学 未来五年我国发展的重心将全面转向科技驱动和创新引领。面对全球科技竞争加剧和外部技术封锁的现 实，我国要靠自主创新赢得发展的主动权。四中全会上强调的"高水平科技自立自强"，意味着不仅要补 短板，更要在人工智能、芯片、航空航天、生物医药等领域实现原始创新的突破，掌握关键技术链。四 中全会提出"统筹教育强国、科技强国、人才强国建设"，是对创新体系的系统布局，教育要为科技储备 人才，科技要反哺教育与产业，三者深度融合才能形成持续创新能力。 坚持扩大内需战略基点，增强国内大循环。"十五五"期间延续了对建设强大国内市场，加快构建新发展 格局的要求。四中全会提出要坚持惠民生和促消费、投资于物和投资于人紧密结合，这既是对就业和民 生福祉的关怀，又是对提振内需的决心。 四中全会强调"以新需求引领新供给，以新供给创造新需求"，并将需求置于前列，体现对于拉动需求的 重视，这将有助于促进消费和投资，实现供给和需求的良性互动。此外，会议还着重强调"增强国内大 循环内生动力和可靠性"。在外部环境复杂多变下，通过增强国内大循环带动内需的持续回升，将有助 于提升经济增长的稳定性和持续性，减少外部扰动带来的影响，更好 ...