Economic Indicators - The weekly ECI supply index is at 50.15%, down 0.03 percentage points from last week, while the demand index remains stable at 49.93%[6] - The monthly ECI supply index for June is 50.17%, a decrease of 0.06 percentage points from May, with the demand index also at 49.93%, unchanged from May[7] - The ECI investment index is at 49.96%, unchanged from last week, while the consumption index has slightly increased to 49.76%, up 0.01 percentage points[6] Real Estate and Consumption - Real estate sales in 30 major cities recorded a year-on-year decline of 8.6% as of June 21, indicating a weakening in market sentiment[7] - Passenger car retail sales increased by 20% year-on-year for the first half of June, showing improvement compared to the previous month[7] - The government plans to distribute 138 billion yuan in central funds for "trade-in" programs in the third and fourth quarters, which may support consumption in the long term[7] Monetary Policy and Liquidity - The ELI index is at -1.02%, up 0.04 percentage points from last week, indicating a slight improvement in liquidity conditions[11] - A total of 4.17 trillion yuan in interbank certificates of deposit will mature this month, with only 2.96 trillion yuan issued, suggesting ongoing financing pressure in the banking system[13] - The central bank conducted a net liquidity injection of 200 billion yuan through reverse repos to support liquidity ahead of the quarter-end[13] Risks and Outlook - There is uncertainty regarding U.S. tariff policies and the potential for policy measures to fall short of market expectations[46] - The sustainability of improvements in the real estate market remains to be observed[46]

Group 1 - The forum "Future Cities - The Synergistic Role of Moscow and Beijing's Strategic Partnership" was held, with 400 experts and representatives discussing cooperation in various fields [1] - Seven cooperation agreements were signed during the forum, focusing on trade, tourism, and education, indicating strong interest from Chinese partners in deepening collaboration [2] - Moscow's non-resource non-energy exports to China are significant, with a nearly 30% year-on-year increase expected in Q1 2025, particularly in consumer goods and high-tech exports [3] Group 2 - The tourism sector is emerging as a new growth point, with Chinese tourists expected to account for one-third of non-CIS visitors to Moscow in 2024, contributing over 42% of total spending [4] - In technology and cultural creativity, Moscow and Beijing are enhancing partnerships, with agreements focusing on AI applications and cultural events planned for 2024 and 2025 [5]

爱尔兰出口飙升 欧元区年初经济增长翻了一番 金十数据6月6日讯，机构分析称，欧元区经济在2025年初的增速是此前报告的两倍，因预计美国将在今 年晚些时候征收贸易关税，包括爱尔兰和德国在内的国家出口激增。欧盟统计局周五报告称，欧元区第 一季度产出较前三个月增长0.6%，高于5月中旬以来0.3%的第二轮预估数据，上修幅度大大超出经济学 家的预期。爱尔兰季度增长近10%，意外强劲，德国扩张速度快于预期，都是欧元区今年开局良好的主 要原因。仅出口一项就为第一季度的经济增长贡献了0.9个百分点，而投资也起到了很大的推动作用。 ...

Core Viewpoint - To alleviate the pressure of the New Taiwan Dollar (TWD) appreciation, Taiwan's monetary policy authority has contacted several large exporters to request a reduction in their daily foreign exchange selling amounts [1] Group 1 - The Taiwanese monetary policy authority is actively engaging with major exporters to manage currency fluctuations [1] - The initiative aims to mitigate the impact of TWD appreciation on the export sector [1]

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The records primarily discuss the impact of new US tariff policies on export trade, particularly focusing on logistics, cross-border e-commerce, and the shifting supply chain dynamics in response to these tariffs [1][2][3][5][11]. Key Points and Arguments Tariff Impact on Logistics and Export - The new US tariff policy has led to a significant increase in logistics costs, with container shipping rates rising to $6,000, an increase of $1,000 to $1,500 compared to previous rates. A surge in shipping demand is expected to last for about one to two months, with a peak in exports anticipated in June [1][6][13][75]. - The overall tariff burden has increased by approximately 30% compared to 2024, with different products facing varying rates. For instance, toys are subject to a 25% tariff, while lithium battery products face rates between 20% to 30% [2][5][14]. Cross-Border E-commerce Growth - Cross-border e-commerce is rapidly developing in regions such as Russia, Mexico, and the Middle East, with Russia seeing a significant increase in light industrial product imports from China. Mexico remains a crucial channel for exports to the US, while the Middle East is experiencing increased investment [1][3][11]. - Despite the growth in e-commerce, traditional trade still dominates, although its share is gradually declining as e-commerce expands [40]. Supply Chain Adjustments - Many companies are shifting production capacity to Southeast Asia, particularly in industries like electric tools and lawnmowers, to take advantage of lower tariffs and maintain supply chain efficiency. This transition is not significantly affected by short-term changes in tariffs [7][9][66]. - Consumer electronics companies have established mature supply chains in Southeast Asia but still rely on China for about 70% of their production capacity. Companies without factories in Southeast Asia are considering relocating closer to the US, such as in Mexico or Canada, to mitigate tariff risks [9][10][66]. Future Expectations and Strategies - Companies are cautiously optimistic about future tariff negotiations after the 90-day grace period, avoiding excessive rush to export. They are prioritizing existing orders, including those for the Christmas season, which are being expedited [5][54]. - The logistics sector is expected to see continued price increases, potentially reaching $8,000 for shipping containers as demand surges [3][13][75]. Market Dynamics and Consumer Behavior - The average tariff level currently stands at approximately 50%, with significant variations across different products. The burden of these tariffs is primarily borne by importers, with cross-border e-commerce platforms able to pass on costs to consumers [23][80]. - The demand for low-value products, such as Christmas goods, is expected to rise as companies rush to fulfill orders before potential tariff increases [20][79]. Regional Trade Developments - The records highlight that trade with Russia has been increasing significantly, driven by a combination of market size and strengthened trade relations following geopolitical shifts. This trend is expected to continue as companies diversify their markets away from the US [47][81]. Other Important Insights - The logistics market is currently experiencing tight capacity, with shipping costs expected to remain high for the next month or two due to accumulated orders from previous months [75][86]. - Companies are exploring various strategies to mitigate the impact of tariffs, including relocating production and utilizing overseas warehouses to maintain competitiveness in the face of rising costs [65][66][84]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call records, focusing on the implications of tariff changes on logistics, e-commerce, and supply chain strategies within the current trade environment.

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The current Guosheng fundamental high - frequency index is 125.7 points (previous value was 125.5 points), with a week - on - week increase of 4.8 points (previous increase was 4.7 points), and the year - on - year increase has rebounded. The long - short signal for interest - rate bonds is short, with a signal factor of 6.4% (previous value was 6.3%) [1][9]. - In terms of production, the industrial production high - frequency index is 125.3 (previous value was 125.2), with a week - on - week increase of 4.7 points (previous increase was 4.6 points), and the year - on - year increase has increased [1][9]. - In terms of total demand, the commercial housing sales high - frequency index is 45.0 (previous value was 45.1), with a week - on - week decrease of 6.7 points (previous decrease was 6.8 points), and the year - on - year decline has narrowed; the infrastructure investment high - frequency index is 117.4 (previous value was 117.2), with a week - on - week increase of 0.5 points (previous increase was 0.0 points), and the year - on - year increase has expanded; the export high - frequency index is 144.6 (previous value was 144.7), with a week - on - week increase of 7.2 points (previous increase was 7.6 points), and the year - on - year increase has narrowed; the consumption high - frequency index is 119.4 (previous value was 119.4), with a week - on - week increase of 1.3 points (previous increase was 1.2 points), and the year - on - year increase has increased [1][9]. - In terms of prices, the CPI month - on - month forecast is 0.0% (previous value was 0.0%); the PPI month - on - month forecast is - 0.3% (previous value was - 0.3%) [2]. - The inventory high - frequency index is 159.8 (previous value was 159.7), with a week - on - week increase of 10.0 points (previous increase was 10.0 points), and the year - on - year increase remains unchanged. In transportation, the transportation high - frequency index is 127.1 (previous value was 126.9), with a week - on - week increase of 7.6 points (previous increase was 7.4 points), and the year - on - year increase has increased. In financing, the financing high - frequency index is 226.7 (previous value was 226.1), with a week - on - week increase of 29.0 points (previous increase was 29.0 points), and the year - on - year increase remains unchanged [2]. Summary by Directory Total Index: Fundamental High - Frequency Index Stable - Based on the report "Fundamental High - Frequency Data - An Effective Tool for Taking the Lead in Bond Market Investment" published on September 5, 2023, a high - frequency data system covering overall, production, demand, prices, financing, etc. was constructed, and the Guosheng fixed - income fundamental high - frequency index and sub - indices were built [8]. - The current Guosheng fundamental high - frequency index is 125.7 points, with a week - on - week increase of 0.1 points and a year - on - year increase of 4.8 points. The interest - rate bond long - short signal factor is 6.4%, with a week - on - week increase of 0.1% [9][11]. Production: Chemical Industry Operating Rate Rebounds - The industrial production high - frequency index is 125.3, with a week - on - week increase of 0.1 points and a year - on - year increase of 4.7 points. The electric furnace operating rate is 64.7% (previous value was 63.5%); the polyester operating rate is 93.9% (previous value was 92.9%); the semi - tire operating rate is 78.3% (previous value was 58.4%); the full - tire operating rate is 65.1% (previous value was 44.8%); the PTA operating rate is 74.6% (previous value was 74.5%); the PX operating rate is 78.2% (previous value was 77.2%) [1][13]. Real Estate Sales: New Home Sales Year - on - Year Remain Negative - The commercial housing sales high - frequency index is 45.0, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.1 points and a year - on - year decrease of 6.7 points. The transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium - sized cities is 27.1 million square meters (previous value was 19.8 million square meters), and the land premium rate of 100 large and medium - sized cities is 7.2% (previous value was 8.7%) [11][21]. Infrastructure Investment: Petroleum Asphalt Operating Rate Rebounds - The infrastructure investment high - frequency index is 117.4, with a week - on - week increase of 0.3 points and a year - on - year increase of 0.5 points. The operating rate of petroleum asphalt plants is 34.4% (previous value was 28.8%) [11][35]. Export: Yiwu Commodity Price Index Has Rebounded - The export high - frequency index is 144.6, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.1 points and a year - on - year increase of 7.2 points. The CCFI index is 1105 points (previous value was 1106 points), and the RJ/CRB index is 297.6 points (previous value was 291.5 points) [11][37]. Consumption: Passenger Car Manufacturers' Retail Sales Increase - The consumption high - frequency index is 119.4, with no week - on - week change and a year - on - year increase of 1.3 points. Passenger car manufacturers' retail sales are 60,896 units (previous value was 41,659 units), passenger car manufacturers' wholesale sales are 48,492 units (previous value was 34,604 units), and the average daily box office is 34.25 million yuan (previous value was 72.49 million yuan) [11][49]. CPI: Vegetable Prices Continue to Fall - The CPI month - on - month forecast is 0.0%. The average wholesale price of pork is 20.9 yuan/kg (unchanged from the previous value), the average wholesale price of 28 key monitored vegetables is 4.3 yuan/kg (previous value was 4.4 yuan/kg), the average wholesale price of 7 key monitored fruits is 7.9 yuan/kg (previous value was 7.8 yuan/kg), and the average wholesale price of white - striped chickens is 17.3 yuan/kg (previous value was 17.2 yuan/kg) [2][57]. PPI: Crude Oil Prices Have Rebounded - The PPI month - on - month forecast is - 0.3%. The closing price of thermal coal at Qinhuangdao Port (Shanxi - produced, Q5500) is 619 yuan/ton (previous value was 638 yuan/ton), the futures settlement price of Brent crude oil is 66 US dollars/barrel (previous value was 62 US dollars/barrel), and the spot settlement price of LME copper is 9569 US dollars/ton (previous value was 9471 US dollars/ton) [2][63]. Transportation: Passenger Transport Rebounds, Flights Decline - The transportation high - frequency index is 127.1, with a week - on - week increase of 0.2 points and a year - on - year increase of 7.6 points. The subway passenger volume in first - tier cities is 38.69 million person - times (previous value was 36.98 million person - times), the road logistics freight rate index is 1050 points (unchanged from the previous value), and the number of domestic flights has decreased to 12,728 flights (previous value was 13,179 flights) [2][74]. Inventory: Electrolytic Aluminum Inventory Declines - The inventory high - frequency index is 159.8, with a week - on - week increase of 0.2 points and a year - on - year increase of 10.0 points. The spot inventory of electrolytic aluminum has decreased to 89,000 tons (previous value was 171,000 tons) [2][80]. Financing: Net Financing of Local Government Bonds Rebounds, Net Financing of Credit Bonds Declines - The financing high - frequency index is 226.7, with a week - on - week increase of 0.6 points and a year - on - year increase of 29.0 points. The net financing of local government bonds is 171.1 billion yuan (previous value was 67.2 billion yuan), the net financing of credit bonds is - 17.5 billion yuan (previous value was 4.1 billion yuan), and the 6 - month national equity bank acceptance bill rediscount rate is 1.11% (previous value was 1.07%) [11][91].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the retail trade industry [1] Core Insights - In April, China's export value exceeded expectations, with a year-on-year increase of 8.1% in dollar terms, significantly surpassing the 1.9% forecast by Reuters. This growth occurred despite a 21% decline in exports to the U.S. The main drivers of this growth were exports to ASEAN, Africa, and Latin America, which saw increases of 20.8%, 25.3%, and 17.3% respectively [4][9] - Yiwu, where the small commodity city is located, reported impressive import and export growth in the first quarter of 2025, with total import and export value reaching 167.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 13.0%, and exports amounting to 147.3 billion yuan, up 14.5%. The city's low dependency on U.S. exports (only 15% of total exports) positions it favorably under the current tariff environment [4][9] - The report highlights the potential benefits for Yiwu from the recent policy initiatives aimed at enhancing the free trade zone, which includes measures to streamline customs processes for food and drug imports. This is expected to further boost the market, especially in cross-border imports [10] - The report recommends investing in the small commodity city as a core asset for non-U.S. exports, citing its low exposure to U.S. tariffs, ongoing market reforms, and the upcoming launch of new global trade centers expected to enhance profitability [4][10] Summary by Sections Industry Trends - The report notes that despite tariff impacts, China's exports have shown robust growth, particularly in non-U.S. markets, indicating a shift in trade dynamics [4][9] Market Performance - The retail trade index increased by 0.88% during the week of May 6 to May 11, 2025, while the overall market indices also showed positive performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 1.92% [11][14] Company Valuation Table - The report includes a detailed valuation table for various companies within the industry, highlighting their market capitalization, closing prices, and projected earnings, with several companies rated as "Buy" or "Overweight" [17][18]