社会服务 2026 年 02 月 22 日 投资评级：看好（维持） 行业走势图 数据来源：聚源 -12% 0% 12% 24% 2025-02 2025-06 2025-10 社会服务 沪深300 相关研究报告 | 《Spotify2026Q1 指引乐观，海南高端 | | --- | | 酒 旅 消 费 势 头 强 劲 — 行 业 周 报 》 | | -2026.2.15 | | 《国产 AI 应用访问量攀升，关注卡位 | | 瘦 身 需 求 产 品 潜 力 — 行 业 周 报 》 | | -2026.2.1 | | 《锅圈开启"四店齐发"布局，茶饮 | | 龙头强者恒强 — 行业周报》 | | -2026.1.25 | 春节海南高端消费保持快增，iphone 17 Pro Max、黄 金等品类二手交易持续升温 ——行业周报 | 初敏（分析师） | 李睿娴（分析师） | 程婧雅（分析师） | | --- | --- | --- | | chumin@kysec.cn | liruixian@kysec.cn | chengjingya@kysec.cn | | 证书编号：S0790522080008 | 证书 ...

Market Overview - Cooling inflation signals have led to a valuation recovery in overseas consumer assets, with the U.S. bipartisan push for credit card interest rate cap legislation creating uncertainty in the credit card sector[1] - Weekly performance of sectors shows U.S. hotels leading with a 3.1% increase, followed by overseas sportswear at 2.5% and luxury goods at 2.2%[11] Sector Performance - The U.S. hotel sector's strong performance is attributed to Marriott and Hilton, with Marriott's Q4 2025 adjusted EBITDA exceeding market expectations, reaching $5.84 billion to $5.93 billion[6] - Overseas sportswear saw a 2.5% increase, driven by a lower-than-expected January CPI of 2.4%, enhancing Fed rate cut expectations[13] - Luxury goods increased by 2.2%, with Hermès up 4.5% due to better-than-expected FY2025 results, while LVMH fell by 4.1% due to disappointing performance in key segments[8] Consumer Trends - The jewelry sector has shown resilience, with a year-to-date increase of 13.7%, outperforming other sectors[11] - Domestic sportswear increased by 0.3%, with Anta Sports rising 4.6% following the acquisition of a stake in PUMA[13] Challenges - The credit card sector faced a significant decline of 5.5%, influenced by proposed legislation to cap interest rates, which could severely impact profitability[14] - The snack sector dropped by 4.6%, with companies like Three Squirrels experiencing a 6.2% decline due to substantial drops in e-commerce sales across major platforms[14] Valuation Insights - Valuations across various sectors remain below the historical five-year averages, with overseas sportswear expected PE at 30.1x, only 57% of the past average[9] - The luxury sector's expected PE is 26.2x, representing 49% of its historical average, indicating potential for future growth as market conditions stabilize[9]

Trade Relations and Tariffs - The US trade representative confirmed that existing trade agreements with the EU will remain in place despite the Supreme Court ruling, emphasizing that tariffs will continue regardless of the litigation outcome [1][2] - The European Commission has urged the US for clarity on future tariff policies, stating that the EU expects the US to honor its commitments and will not accept any increases in tariffs beyond previously agreed levels [3] - European Parliament lawmakers are considering pausing legislative work until clear commitments from the US are secured, highlighting the need for clarity in trade relationships [4] Industry Reactions - The German industry has expressed a mixed reaction, acknowledging the political checks and balances in the US while also noting that uncertainty could hinder investment and supply chain decisions [6][7] - The automotive and chemical industries in Germany are facing unchanged sectoral tariffs of 15%, which are not affected by the recent court ruling [8] - The French trade minister has suggested that the EU should adopt a united approach against the US's new tariffs, indicating a potential for retaliatory measures [10] Market Impact - Following the Supreme Court ruling, the French stock market index, CAC 40, reached a record high, driven by gains in luxury stocks, which are significantly exposed to exports [11][12] - Key export sectors for France, such as aerospace, currently remain unaffected by tariff changes, maintaining a 0% tariff exemption [12] - The French government is focused on adapting to the ruling's consequences while emphasizing the importance of maintaining fair trade rules and reciprocity [13][14]

美国时间2月20日（星期五），美国总统唐纳德·特朗普在椭圆形办公室签署行政命令，宣布对几乎所有进口商品加征10%的临时全球关税，并称该政策 将"立即生效"。 白宫随后确认，新关税将于2月24日凌晨12点01分（美国东部时间）正式实施。 此举依据的是《1974年贸易法》第122条，这是一项极少被启用的条款，授权总统在面临"短期国际收支失衡或贸易紧急状况"时，可单方面征收临时关税。 根据美国法律规定，此类关税若未经国会批准，最长仅可持续150天。 为减轻民生冲击，新政策设置了豁免清单，包括能源产品、自然资源、化肥、药品、部分电子产品、特定车辆、航空航天设备、信息材料及旅客随身行李； 食品类如牛肉和番茄也不在征税之列。 另得益于《美墨加协定》（USMCA），加拿大和墨西哥大部分商品继续享受免税待遇；符合《多米尼加-中美洲自由贸易协定》（CAFTA-DR）的纺织品和 服装也获豁免。 他同时在社交平台上写道："他们承认我作为总统几乎可以做任何事，就是不能征收关税。我可以'毁掉这个国家'，却不能向那些剥削我们的国家收一点小 钱，这太荒唐了！" 美国最高法院的裁决出炉后，全球出口商也并未因此松一口气。 据路透社证实，欧洲酒 ...

来源：Barrons巴伦 美国最高法院裁定推翻特朗普标志性的贸易政策，将进一步加剧不确定性，并增加美国政府债务。 作者|乔・莱特 编辑|孙骋 周五，在最高法院驳回了美国总统唐纳德·特朗普贸易议程的核心支柱后，美股应声上涨，但市场的宽 慰可能只是短暂的。相反，投资者应为新一轮的经济不确定性做好准备。 美国最高法院以6比3的投票结果裁定，特朗普通过动用《国际紧急经济权力法》（IEEPA）对美国大多 数贸易伙伴加征关税，属于违法行为。法院指出，尽管IEEPA允许总统以多种方式限制贸易，但它并未 赋予总统征收关税的权力。 此前，特朗普几乎所有公开声明以及在Truth Social上发布、威胁要重拳打击某个贸易伙伴的帖子背后， 依托的都是IEEPA赋予的权力。如今，这项权力已不复存在。但特朗普并未选择退让，而是加码施压。 在抨击法院裁决之后，特朗普于周五下午宣布，他将实施一项新的、10%的全球关税，并预告未来还会 有更多措施出台。 "多年来一直在占我们便宜的外国国家欣喜若狂，"特朗普说。"他们高兴得不得了，甚至在街头跳起舞 来，但他们跳不了多久了。" 投资者的情况或许也是如此。经过一天的震荡交易，标普500指数收盘上涨 ...

摩根士丹利分析师在一份报告中写道，最高法院推翻美国总统特朗普全球关税的裁决所带来的后续影响 尚不明朗，且该政府已表示将寻求其他授权来源来征收关税。不过，这些分析师预计，长期来看关税将 普遍减轻，并指出，对于不太可能受到更窄关税制度影响的股票，存在潜在的有利因素。他们写道，属 于这一类别的某些板块包括来自欧盟的 化妆品和个人护理产品，以及来自加拿大的 家居用品。（智通 财经） ...

Group 1 - The introduction of smart customs inspection for bulk resource commodities, such as iron ore, has significantly improved efficiency at the Zhanjiang port, allowing for real-time data transmission and reducing the need for manual checks [1] - The average customs clearance time for imported iron ore has been reduced by 15 hours, resulting in savings of over 43 million yuan in logistics costs since the new model was implemented [1] - A stable and efficient customs clearance process enhances the resilience of foreign trade development and cultivates new competitive advantages for international trade [1] Group 2 - The "Red Boat Enterprise Navigation" service platform launched by Hangzhou Customs utilizes AI algorithms to create enterprise profiles, enabling targeted policy delivery to businesses, thus improving the efficiency of policy implementation [2] - As of January this year, the "Red Boat Enterprise Navigation" platform has provided 7,093 policy regulations and achieved 256,000 precise policy push notifications [2] - The "Smart Telecommunication Quarantine" system implemented by Tianjin Customs has reduced the average customs clearance time for ships by 1 hour, saving approximately 15,000 yuan per vessel in rental and berth fees [2] Group 3 - The Deputy Director of the General Administration of Customs, Wang Jun, emphasized the importance of embracing AI development to optimize customs processes, enhance risk management, and improve the business environment [3] - The modernization of customs work is aimed at achieving a balance between regulation and facilitation, contributing to China's modernization efforts [3]

Core Viewpoint - NMN (β-Nicotinamide Mononucleotide) is gaining attention in the global health industry for its potential anti-aging benefits, DNA repair, and metabolic regulation, with significant regulatory advancements expected by 2025 [1][2]. Industry Development - The NMN industry has evolved from laboratory research to commercial applications, with major markets like the US, Japan, Canada, and Australia recognizing its legal status through various regulatory pathways [1][2]. - China is currently the largest producer of NMN raw materials, with leading companies building competitive barriers through technological innovation and industry chain layout [2][19]. NMN Definition and Function - NMN is a direct precursor to NAD+ (Nicotinamide Adenine Dinucleotide), crucial for delaying aging and enhancing physiological functions [3][4]. - As NAD+ levels decline with age, NMN supplementation can quickly elevate NAD+ levels, playing a vital role in anti-aging, cardiovascular health, and metabolic improvement [4][6]. Regulatory Environment - The global regulatory landscape for NMN is shifting from strict restrictions to cautious openness, with significant milestones achieved in various countries [17][18]. - In China, NMN has been approved as a new cosmetic ingredient and is on the path to being recognized as a health food, with the National Market Supervision Administration listing it for health food approval in April 2025 [17][18]. Market Demand - The aging population in China is expected to grow significantly, with the elderly population projected to increase from 320 million to 390 million by 2030, driving demand for anti-aging products [19]. - Younger generations are also increasingly aware of anti-aging needs, creating a dual demand for NMN products [19]. Technological Innovations - Advances in synthesis methods, particularly the full enzyme method, are driving down costs and improving product quality in the NMN industry [21][22]. - Innovations in delivery technologies are enhancing the bioavailability of NMN, ensuring better absorption and user experience [22]. Application Areas - NMN is primarily used in health supplements and cosmetics, with health supplements accounting for nearly 90% of the market share [24][28]. - Future applications are expected to expand into pet nutrition, medical health, and agricultural technology, opening new growth avenues [24][28]. Market Size and Growth - The NMN market in China is expected to exceed 3 billion yuan by 2025, driven by increasing regulatory support and expanding applications [28][32]. - The market is currently dominated by health supplements and cosmetics, with significant growth potential in other sectors as regulations ease [28][32]. Sales Channels - NMN products are primarily sold through cross-border e-commerce and private channels, with cross-border e-commerce accounting for 60%-70% of market share [35][34]. Certification and Standards - The "blue hat" certification for health foods in China represents the highest standard for NMN products, indicating safety and compliance [37]. Challenges and Opportunities - The NMN industry faces challenges such as exaggerated claims, lack of consumer awareness, and technological iterations, necessitating a focus on compliance and innovation [61][63]. - Companies are encouraged to innovate their business models and extend their value chains to enhance competitiveness [66].

长假前三日，本市市场监管领域公众诉求渠道保持畅通，消费者权益保护总体平稳有序。为保障市民群 众度过一个平安祥和的春节，市市场监管部门加大监管执法和维权服务力度，通过加强12315热线平台 值守、做好公众诉求咨询解答引导、完善一窗式话务转接和在线纠纷解决（ODR）机制、强化投诉举 报实时监测等，切实回应社会关切，助力营造假日良好消费环境。 二、线上消费诉求占比较高，服装鞋帽等诉求量相对集中 长假前三日，市市场监管投诉举报系统共受理登记投诉举报9184件，解答各类咨询28401件，其中服装 鞋帽、食品、家居用品、通讯产品、化妆品、家用电器、计算机产品等诉求量居前。 一、节日消费维权 【下载黑猫投诉客户端】畅通有序，诉求总量保持平稳态势 长假前三日，涉及年夜饭消费诉求27件（与去年长假前三日相比基本持平），主要反映年夜饭订购纠 纷、配送延迟、商家歇业、菜品欠佳等。如消费者张女士称，除夕夜在某连锁超市线上订购年夜饭餐 食，商家迟迟不予配送。 四、绿色消费诉求有所增多，低碳环保理念持续增强 长假前三日，涉及绿色消费相关诉求198件，主要反映共享消费、环保促销（以旧换新等）、环保商品 （新能源汽车、绿色食品等）、餐饮行业 ...

面对这个问题，特朗普试图通过战争手段，为美元寻找一个新的支撑点。还记得上世纪，美元如何将自己锚定为国际货币的吗？那时，美国把原油作为美元 的支撑点，并借着全球工业化的浪潮，成功打开了几乎所有国家的大门。而特朗普的做法则更为简单粗暴——他直接把目光锁定在全球最大的工业品出口国 ——中国。特朗普的算盘很清晰：新能源行业正在迅猛发展，原油终究是昨日黄花。既然如此，为什么不把目光转向全球最大的工业制造国——中国呢？他 希望，即使美元贬值，依靠中国制造的力量，美元仍能在全球继续保持主导地位。特朗普与中国的关税战并非目标，真正的目的，是逼迫中国签订所谓的海 湖庄园协议，让美国全面接管中国的产业。最终，大家都知道，中国反击得迅速且强硬，特朗普的算盘彻底落空了。特朗普的计划失败了，于是他又回到了 旧路上，开始向石油大国——伊朗和委内瑞拉施压，企图通过石油美元体系补上漏洞。此时，一切也都能解释得通了。 但接下来，新的问题随之而来：面对特朗普这些胡作非为、完全无视经济规律的做法，坚信自己能成功实现既要美元贬值，又要保持美元全球货币地位和购 买力的春秋大梦，甚至一厢情愿地觉得能够奏效，我们应该怎么办？面对这种局面，有两个应对策略。 ...