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Group 1: Lithium Carbonate Market - Lithium carbonate prices surged by 5.36% due to supply-side disruptions, leading the domestic commodity market [2] - Reports indicate that some lithium mines in Jiangxi are facing environmental and mining permit issues, potentially leading to short-term production halts [2] - The current market sentiment is mixed, with expectations of supply disruptions continuing to influence prices, while long-term oversupply remains a concern [2] Group 2: Jujube Market - Jujube futures experienced a rapid increase, peaking at a 4% gain before closing up by 2.29%, supported by weather changes in production areas and reduced yield expectations [3] - Market sentiment remains divided regarding production forecasts, indicating uncertainty in the overall market outlook [3] Group 3: Polysilicon Market - Polysilicon prices have entered a phase of fluctuation after a previous surge, with increased production capacity expected to lead to higher inventory pressures [4] - The demand outlook for the second half of the year is limited due to earlier consumption during the solar installation rush, impacting future price movements [4] - Potential industry consolidation or production adjustments could improve the operational environment and support price recovery [4] Group 4: Caustic Soda Market - Caustic soda futures are underperforming, with inventory levels rising by 8.84% week-on-week, indicating increased selling pressure for enterprises [5] - As of August 7, the inventory of caustic soda in sample enterprises reached 46.17 million tons, reflecting a significant year-on-year increase [5] - Regional variations in inventory levels are noted, with some areas experiencing upward trends due to market pressures and demand fluctuations [5]

Group 1: Report's Core View - The port accelerated inventory accumulation this week. Overseas methanol production remained at a high level, increasing the pressure of arrivals in August. The Xingxing MTO device in the port area started a one - month maintenance at the end of July. In the inland area, there will still be some maintenance in the northwest in August, and the production will not fully recover until late August. The traditional downstream demand showed certain resilience, and the inventory of inland methanol factories decreased further. Overall, the inland market was stronger than the port market [3] Group 2: Market Data Inland Market - Q5500 Ordos thermal coal was 470 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the production profit of coal - based methanol in Inner Mongolia was 695 yuan/ton (+25). The inland methanol prices varied by region: Inner Mongolia North Line was 2110 yuan/ton (+25), Inner Mongolia South Line was 2100 yuan/ton (unchanged), Shandong Linyi was 2383 yuan/ton (+10), Henan was 2250 yuan/ton (unchanged), and Hebei was 2275 yuan/ton (+25). The inland factory inventory was 293,688 tons (-30,832), and the northwest factory inventory was 185,500 tons (-30,500). The inland factory's pending orders were 240,800 tons (+10,075), and the northwest factory's pending orders were 122,800 tons (+10,800) [1] Port Market - The methanol price in Taicang was 2388 yuan/ton (+15), the basis was - 8 yuan/ton (+16), CFR China was 268 US dollars/ton (+1), and the import price difference in East China was 13 yuan/ton (-3). The port inventory increased, with the total port inventory at 925,480 tons (+117,080), Jiangsu port inventory at 498,000 tons (+79,000), Zhejiang port inventory at 144,000 tons (-9000), and Guangdong port inventory at 170,000 tons (+15,000). The downstream MTO operating rate was 85.27% (+0.32%) [2] Regional Price Differences - There were various regional price differences, such as the Lubei - Northwest - 280 price difference of - 45 yuan/ton (-25), the Taicang - Inner Mongolia - 550 price difference of - 272 yuan/ton (-10), etc [2] Group 3: Strategy - Unilateral: Wait and see - Inter - period: Do reverse arbitrage when the MA09 - 01 inter - period spread is high - Cross - variety: Shrink the PP2601 - 3MA2601 spread when it is high [4] Group 4: Report Directory Summary Methanol Basis & Inter - period Structure - The report included multiple figures related to methanol basis and inter - period spread, such as the methanol Taicang basis and the main contract, and the spreads between different methanol futures contracts [7][22][24] Methanol Production Profit, MTO Profit, and Import Profit - Figures related to production profit (e.g., Inner Mongolia coal - based methanol production profit), MTO profit (e.g., East China MTO profit), and import profit (e.g., Taicang methanol - CFR China import price difference) were presented [26][34] Methanol Production and Inventory - Figures showed methanol port inventory, MTO/P operating rate, inland factory inventory, and China's methanol operating rate [36][38] Regional Price Differences - Figures presented various regional price differences, such as Lubei - Northwest, East China - Inner Mongolia, etc [44][48][51] Traditional Downstream Profits - Figures showed the production profits of traditional downstream products like Shandong formaldehyde, Jiangsu acetic acid, Shandong MTBE, and Henan dimethyl ether [52][60]

Report Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral [3] Core Viewpoints - The price of ethylene glycol (EG) rebounded due to the rebound of coking coal prices and the poor restart of overseas Saudi Arabian plants. The supply is in an increasing trend, but the restart of overseas plants is not smooth, and the increase of port inventory is less than expected. Under low inventory, attention should be paid to cost changes [1][3] - In terms of overall fundamentals, the domestic supply load of ethylene glycol synthesis gas has returned to a high level and can be further increased. Some EO - EG co - production units are switching from EO to EG. Overseas, the supply of long - distance goods is expected to gradually return to normal. In July, the terminal replenished inventory, and the polyester load is expected to remain stable in the short term. In early August, there will be a small inventory build - up, and the port inventory is expected to remain low and rise slightly [2] Summary by Directory Price and Basis - Yesterday, the closing price of the EG main contract was 4,414 yuan/ton (a change of +15 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, a range of +0.34%), the spot price of EG in the East China market was 4,493 yuan/ton (a change of +33 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, a range of +0.74%), and the East China spot basis of EG (based on the 2509 contract) was 80 yuan/ton (a month - on - month increase of 1 yuan/ton) [1] Production Profit and Operating Rate - The production profit of ethylene - made EG was - 48 US dollars/ton (a month - on - month increase of 0 US dollars/ton), and the production profit of coal - made syngas - made EG was - 11 yuan/ton (a month - on - month decrease of 13 yuan/ton) [1] International Price Difference - No specific data provided in the text Downstream Sales, Production and Operating Rate - In July, the terminal replenished inventory intensively, and the inventory pressure of filament was greatly relieved. It is expected that the polyester load will remain stable in the short term. Attention should be paid to the order connection in August [2] Inventory Data - According to CCF data, the inventory of the main ports in East China was 51.6 tons (a month - on - month decrease of 0.5 tons); according to Longzhong data, it was 42.7 tons (a month - on - month decrease of 4.8 tons). The actual arrival at the main ports last week was 10.3 tons, lower than the planned value. The port inventory decreased slightly last week. The planned arrival at the main ports in East China this week is 13.8 tons, and it is expected that the inventory at the main ports will increase this week [1] - The overall balance sheet shows a small inventory build - up at the beginning of August, and the port inventory is expected to remain low and rise slightly [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Views - PTA: Recently, the macro atmosphere has cooled, commodities have corrected, and the cost - end support is insufficient. The downstream terminal is in the off - season with weak demand. Although there have been many changes in PTA devices recently, the spot market has sufficient liquidity and lacks upward drivers. However, as the basis weakens, the buying sentiment of traders has slightly recovered, and the downward space is limited. Also, the PTA processing margin was once compressed below 200 this week, and attention should be paid to whether there are new variables in PTA devices under continuous low processing fees [5]. - MEG: This week, the arrival of foreign MEG vessels is relatively concentrated, and the visible inventory is expected to increase periodically. In August, the MEG fundamentals are mainly in a loose balance. The restart of Zhejiang Petrochemical Phase II 1 is moderately postponed to around the middle of the month, and the increase in domestic output is delayed. It is expected that MEG will be mainly in a wide - range adjustment in the short term. Currently, the port inventory is low, and attention should be paid to the cost - end and device changes [7]. Summary by Directory 1.前日回顾 No relevant information provided. 2.每日提示 - PTA: - Fundamentals: The news of Ineos reducing its load during the day boosted the market, and combined with the warming of the commodity atmosphere, the PTA futures market rose rapidly and finally closed up in a volatile manner. The spot market negotiation atmosphere was okay, the spot basis was weak, and a small number of polyester factories made bids. The mainstream suppliers offered August goods. There were transactions at a discount of 20 - 25 to the 09 contract for the middle and early August, and at a discount of 15 - 20 to the 09 contract for the late August, with the price negotiation range around 4650 - 4720. The suppliers' August goods were traded at a discount of 20 to the 09 contract. The goods in mid - September were traded at a premium of 0 to the 09 contract. Today's mainstream spot basis is at a discount of 21 to the 09 contract [6]. - Basis: The spot price is 4675, the basis of the 09 contract is - 49, and the futures is at a discount to the spot [6]. - Inventory: The PTA factory inventory is 3.82 days, a decrease of 0.17 days compared with the previous period [6]. - Market: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average [6]. - Main positions: Net short positions, and short positions increased [6]. - MEG: - Fundamentals: On Wednesday, the price of ethylene glycol remained firm at a high level, and the market transactions were okay. The night - session of ethylene glycol opened higher and consolidated. The spot negotiation was at a premium of 78 - 81 yuan/ton to the 09 contract. During the day, the ethylene glycol market was strong. Traders in the market actively participated in contract replenishment. In the afternoon, the basis of the far - month futures weakened. In terms of US dollars, the center of the ethylene glycol overseas market rose slightly. The mainstream negotiation of recent shipments was at 525 - 530 US dollars/ton, and the shipments during the day were traded at around 526 - 529 US dollars/ton. The inquiry intention in the market was okay. The Taiwan tender goods were traded at around 532 US dollars/ton, with a cargo volume of 3000 tons [7]. - Basis: The spot price is 4493, the basis of the 09 contract is 79, and the futures is at a discount to the spot [7]. - Inventory: The total inventory in the East China region is 42.74 tons, a decrease of 4.14 tons compared with the previous period [7]. - Market: The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day moving average [7]. - Main positions: The main net short positions, and short positions decreased [7]. 3.今日关注 No relevant information provided. 4.基本面数据 - PTA supply - demand balance sheet: It shows the data of PTA production capacity, load, output, import, total supply, polyester production, consumption, and inventory from January 2024 to December 2025 [10]. - Ethylene glycol supply - demand balance sheet: It shows the data of ethylene glycol's total operating rate, production, import, total supply, polyester production, consumption, and port inventory from January 2024 to December 2025 [11]. 5.影响因素总结 - Bullish factors: Some PTA devices are planned to be overhauled in August, and the supply - demand expectation is improved [8]. - Bearish factors: From the demand side, at the end of the export rush + domestic off - season, the downward trend of terminal demand is certain [8]. 6.当前主要逻辑和风险点 Short - term commodity markets are greatly affected by the macro - level. Attention should be paid to the cost - end, and the upper resistance level should be noted when the market rebounds [9].

2025 年 08 月 07 日 对二甲苯：供需压力增加，趋势偏弱 PTA：加工费低位，负荷计划外下降，月差反弹 MEG：煤炭价格回暖带动反弹，多 MEG 空 PTA/PX 贺晓勤 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0017709 hexiaoqin@gtht.com | 期货 | PX 主力 | PTA 主力 | MEG 主力 | PF 主力 | SC 主力 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 昨日收盘价 | 6794 | 4724 | 4414 | 6414 | 505.9 | | 涨跌 | 6734 | 42 | 15 | 32 | -2.9 | | 涨跌幅 | 0.89% | 0.90% | 0.34% | 0.50% | -0.57% | | 月差 | PX9-1 | PTA9-1 | MEG9-1 | PF9-1 | SC9-10 | | 昨日收盘价 | 50 | -30 | -21 | -74 | 4.9 | | 前日收盘价 | 28 | -40 | -27 | -74 | 5.2 | | 涨跌 | 22 | 10 | 6 | 0 | -0.3 | | 现货 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints - The supply of PX is expected to increase, with the balance sheet shifting from destocking to balance, but it remains in a low - inventory state. The PTA spot processing fee is at a low level, and it is expected to continue a slight inventory build - up in August. The demand side has not significantly improved, and the improvement still awaits the arrival of seasonal peak - season orders [1][2]. - For trading strategies, a cautious and bearish stance is taken on PX/PTA/PF/PR. There are suggestions for cross - variety and cross - period trading, such as narrowing the PTA processing fee at high prices, increasing the PR processing fee at low prices, and conducting reverse spreads for PTA2509 - 2601 and PF2509 - 2511 [4]. Summary by Directory 1. Price and Basis - TA main - contract spot basis is - 19 yuan/ton (a month - on - month change of - 4 yuan/ton), PTA spot processing fee is 111 yuan/ton (a month - on - month change of - 34 yuan/ton), and the main - contract on - paper processing fee is 370 yuan/ton (a month - on - month change of + 2 yuan/ton) [2]. - The PXN of PX is 253 dollars/ton (a month - on - month change of + 11.38 dollars/ton) [1]. 2. Upstream Profits and Spreads - PX processing fee PXN: PX China CFR - Naphtha Japan CFR; PTA spot processing fee; South Korea's xylene isomerization profit; South Korea's STDP selective disproportionation profit are all analyzed in the report [6][7]. 3. International Spreads and Import - Export Profits - Analyzed are the toluene US - Asia spread: FOB US Gulf - FOB South Korea, toluene South Korea FOB - Japan Naphtha CFR, and PTA export profit [7]. 4. Upstream PX and PTA Operation - Recent commissioning of multiple reforming units and restart of some PX units have led to a gradual recovery of supply. China's PX load is expected to recover successively, and the supply of PX is expected to increase [1]. - Short - term PTA maintenance has improved supply - demand, but mainstream suppliers' active sales have suppressed prices [2]. 5. Social Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - PTA is expected to continue a slight inventory build - up in August, and the concentrated cancellation of warehouse receipts has led to abundant liquid supply [2]. - The PX balance sheet has shifted from destocking to balance, but it remains in a low - inventory state [1]. 6. Downstream Polyester Load - Polyester operating rate is 88.1% (a month - on - month decrease of 0.6%). In late July, terminal weaving concentrated on replenishing raw materials, significantly reducing filament inventory pressure. Short - term polyester load remains firm [2]. - Short - fiber factories have different pressures in different product types, with cotton - type pressure being acceptable, while hollow and low - melting - point types face greater pressure and have slightly reduced production [2]. - For bottle chips, the maintenance plans of several large manufacturers have been gradually implemented, and the load is expected to remain stable in the short term [2][3]. 7. PF Detailed Data - PF spot production profit is 122 yuan/ton (a month - on - month decrease of 1 yuan/ton). PF demand - side orders are weak, inventory remains high, and the willingness to hold goods is low under the drag of downstream production cuts. The near - month 09 contract is suppressed by the logic of mandatory cancellation of warehouse receipts [3]. 8. PR Fundamental Detailed Data - PR bottle - chip spot processing fee is 443 yuan/ton (a month - on - month change of + 10 yuan/ton). After the maintenance plans of several large manufacturers are completed, there are no restart plans in August. The bottle - chip load is expected to remain stable in the short term, and the spot processing fee is expected to return to the range of 300 - 500 yuan/ton for fluctuations after repair [3].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Views of the Report - The price of EG followed the decline of coking coal, with the closing price of the EG main contract at 4,414 yuan/ton (down 36 yuan/ton or 0.81% from the previous trading day), and the spot price in the East China market at 4,492 yuan/ton (down 33 yuan/ton or 0.73% from the previous trading day) [1]. - The ethylene - based EG production profit was -$39/ton (unchanged from the previous period), and the coal - based syngas - to - EG production profit was 102 yuan/ton (up 4 yuan/ton from the previous period) [1]. - The inventory of MEG in the main ports of East China continued to decline. According to CCF, it was 52.1 tons (down 1.2 tons from the previous period), and according to Longzhong, it was 42.7 tons (down 4.8 tons from the previous period) [1]. - On the supply side, the domestic syngas - to - ethylene glycol load has returned to a high level and can be further increased. Some EO - EG co - production plants are switching from EO to EG. Overseas, the Saudi sharq series of plants have restarted, and the import is expected to increase. On the demand side, the polyester load is expected to remain strong in the short term, but there is a weakening pressure on the fundamentals in August due to high supply [2]. - The trading strategy is to be cautiously bearish on the single - side due to the weakening market sentiment and the decline of coking coal, and wait for coking coal to digest the over - increase of last week [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price and Basis - The closing price of the EG main contract was 4,414 yuan/ton (down 36 yuan/ton or 0.81% from the previous trading day), and the spot price in the East China market was 4,492 yuan/ton (down 33 yuan/ton or 0.73% from the previous trading day). The spot basis in East China (based on the 2509 contract) was 68 yuan/ton (up 2 yuan/ton from the previous period) [1]. Production Profit and Operating Rate - The ethylene - based EG production profit was -$39/ton (unchanged from the previous period), and the coal - based syngas - to - EG production profit was 102 yuan/ton (up 4 yuan/ton from the previous period) [1]. - The domestic syngas - to - ethylene glycol load has returned to a high level and can be further increased under favorable conditions. Some EO - EG co - production plants have plans to switch from EO to EG, and the overall load is moderately high [2]. International Price Difference No information provided. Downstream Sales, Production and Operating Rate - Due to the price increase effect, the terminal carried out centralized replenishment, and the inventory pressure of filament was greatly relieved. It is expected that the polyester load will remain strong in the short term, and attention should be paid to the order connection in August [2]. Inventory Data - According to CCF, the MEG inventory in the main ports of East China was 52.1 tons (down 1.2 tons from the previous period), and according to Longzhong, it was 42.7 tons (down 4.8 tons from the previous period). Affected by the typhoon, the arrival of ships was postponed, and the inventory continued to decline [1].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unspecified Core Viewpoints - Propylene supply pressure is significantly increasing, with short - term fundamentals showing no obvious improvement. New capacity is being released, and downstream demand is weak. However, PP powder production profit has recovered [3]. - For polyolefins, the third round of Sino - US economic and trade talks may bring positive news. Supply pressure is increasing due to the restart of maintenance devices and new device production. Cost - side support is weak, and downstream demand is mainly for rigid replenishment [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Propylene Basis Structure - Includes charts of propylene main contract closing price, East China basis, North China basis, and 01 - 05 contract [10][13] 2. Propylene Production Profit and Operating Rate - Charts show propylene CFR in China - naphtha CFR in Japan, propylene capacity utilization rate, PDH production margin, PDH capacity utilization rate, MTO production margin, and methanol - to - olefins capacity utilization rate [19][27][29] 3. Propylene Import and Export Profit - Charts cover the price differences between South Korea FOB - China CFR, Japan CFR - China CFR, Southeast Asia CFR - China CFR, and propylene import profit [35][37] 4. Propylene Downstream Profit and Operating Rate - Charts display the production profit and operating rate of PP powder, propylene oxide, n - butanol, octanol, acrylic acid, acrylonitrile, and phenol - acetone [43][45][48] 5. Propylene Inventory - Charts show propylene in - plant inventory and PP powder in - plant inventory [69] 6. Polyolefin Basis Structure - Includes charts of plastic futures main contract trend, LL East China - main contract basis, polypropylene futures main contract trend, and PP East China - main contract basis [70][74] 7. Polyolefin Production Profit and Operating Rate - Charts cover LL production profit (crude - oil - based), PE operating rate, PE weekly output, PE maintenance loss, PP production profit (crude - oil - based), PP production profit (PDH - based), PP operating rate, PP weekly output, and PDH - based PP capacity utilization rate [79][81][84] 8. Polyolefin Non - Standard Price Difference - Charts show the price differences between HD injection - LL East China, HD blow - molding - LL East China, HD film - LL East China, LD East China - LL, PP low - melt copolymer - drawn wire East China, and PP homopolymer injection - drawn wire East China [94][101][102] 9. Polyolefin Import and Export Profit - Charts include LL import profit, LL US Gulf FOB - China CFR, LL Southeast Asia CFR - China CFR, LL Europe FD - China CFR, PP import profit, PP export profit (to Southeast Asia), PP homopolymer injection US Gulf FOB - China CFR, PP homopolymer injection Southeast Asia CFR - China CFR, PP homopolymer injection Northwest Europe FOB - China CFR, and LL export profit [107][111][117] 10. Polyolefin Downstream Operating Rate and Profit - Charts show PE downstream agricultural film operating rate, PE downstream packaging film operating rate, PE downstream stretch film - LL - 2300, PP downstream woven bag operating rate, PP downstream BOPP operating rate, PP downstream injection molding operating rate, PP downstream woven bag production margin, and PP downstream BOPP production margin [127][128][134] 11. Polyolefin Inventory - Charts cover PE oil - based enterprise inventory, PE coal - chemical enterprise inventory, PE trader inventory, PE port inventory, PP oil - based enterprise inventory, PP coal - chemical enterprise inventory, PP trader inventory, and PP port inventory [136][140][144] Strategies - Unilateral: Neutral - Inter - period: PL01 - 05 reverse spread - Inter - variety: Long PL2601 and short PP2509 [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a neutral rating for PX/PTA/PF/PR [5] Core Viewpoints - Geopolitical situations are disturbing oil prices, and concerns about Russian crude oil supply disruptions and Middle - East tensions support oil price rebounds. PX maintains a low - inventory pattern, and PXN has support. PTA's fundamental supply - demand situation changes little, and attention should be paid to macro - sentiment changes. Polyester load is currently strong, but the recovery of demand needs to be monitored. PF is affected by downstream production cuts, and PR's processing fees are expected to return to the range after repair [3][4][5] Summary by Directory Price and Basis - The report presents the TA main contract, basis, and inter - period spread trends; PX main contract trends, basis, and inter - period spread; PTA East China spot basis; and short - fiber 1.56D*38mm semi - glossy natural white basis [9][10][12] Upstream Profits and Spreads - It shows PX processing fee PXN, PTA spot processing fee, South Korean xylene isomerization profit, and South Korean STDP selective disproportionation profit [17][20] International Spreads and Import - Export Profits - The report includes toluene US - Asia spread, toluene South Korean FOB - Japanese naphtha CFR, and PTA export profit [25][27] Upstream PX and PTA Start - up - It presents the operating rates of PTA in China, South Korea, and Taiwan, as well as the operating rates of PX in China and Asia [28][31][33] Social Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - The report shows PTA weekly social inventory, PX monthly social inventory, PTA total warehouse receipts + forecast volume, PTA warehouse warehouse - receipt inventory, PX warehouse - receipt inventory, and PF warehouse - receipt inventory [36][39][40] Downstream Polyester Load - It includes filament production and sales, short - fiber production and sales, polyester load, direct - spinning filament load, polyester staple fiber load, polyester bottle - chip load, filament factory inventory days, Jiangsu and Zhejiang loom start - up rate, Jiangsu and Zhejiang texturing start - up rate, Jiangsu and Zhejiang dyeing start - up rate, and filament profit [48][50][59] PF Detailed Data - The report presents polyester staple fiber load, polyester staple fiber factory equity inventory days, 1.4D physical inventory, 1.4D equity inventory, recycled cotton - type staple fiber load, original - recycled spread, pure - polyester yarn start - up rate, pure - polyester yarn production profit, polyester - cotton yarn start - up rate, polyester - cotton yarn processing fee, pure - polyester yarn factory inventory available days, and polyester - cotton yarn factory inventory available days [70][79][83] PR Fundamental Detailed Data - It shows polyester bottle - chip load, bottle - chip factory bottle - chip inventory days, bottle - chip spot processing fee, bottle - chip export processing fee, bottle - chip export profit, East China water bottle - chip - recycled 3A - grade white bottle - chip spread, bottle - chip next - month spread, and bottle - chip next - next - month spread [86][91][95]