金 信 期 货 P T A 乙 二 醇 日 刊 本刊由金信期货研究院撰写 2 0 2 6 / 0 1 / 0 7 GOLDTRUST FUTURES CO.，LTD PTA 主力合约：1月7日PTA主力期货合约TA605今天上涨0.47%，基差走强至-45元/吨。 ibaotu.com 日度市场情况 基本面：今日PTA华东地区市场价5095元/吨，较前一交易日上涨15元/吨。成本端布伦特原油下跌至60美元/桶左右；PTA产能利用率 较上一工作日持平至77.41%；周度PTA工厂库存天数3.65天，环比增加0.04天。 主力动向：多头主力减仓 主力动向：多空主力分歧 走势预期：之前多套装置停车检修，加上受大风天气影响到港货轮延误，对乙二醇供应端压力形成缓解。近月仍存季节性累库压力， 26年的供应压力仍然偏大。预计短期乙二醇价格反弹高度有限。 GOLDTRUST FUTURES 数据来源：公开资料、Mysteel、金信期货 观点仅供参考，市场有风险，入市需谨慎 PTA 感谢您下载包图网平台上提供的PPT作品，为了您和包图网以及原创作者的利益，请勿复制、传播、销售，否则将承担法律责任！包图网将对作品进行维权，按照传 ...

Core Viewpoint - The MA2605 contract rose by 3.1% due to heightened tensions between the US and Iran, which has led to a rapid increase in methanol prices as Iran is a major producer of methanol [2][5]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The US Navy's drone activities near the Iranian coast have escalated tensions, raising market concerns about potential military actions against Iran [2][5]. - China's methanol port inventory remains at historically high levels, with previous shipments experiencing delays in unloading, indicating a weak current market reality [5][6]. - The winter maintenance in Iran is expected to lead to a decrease in shipping volumes, with imports anticipated to peak and then decline in January and February [6]. Group 2: Demand and Supply Outlook - The market is currently in a state of weak reality but strong expectations, as traders anticipate a reduction in port inventories [6]. - Downstream demand is affected by seasonal slowdowns, with the inland market experiencing a closure of port return windows and upcoming maintenance on MTO facilities [6]. - The recent price increase is primarily driven by geopolitical conflicts rather than fundamental supply and demand changes [6]. Group 3: Investment Strategy - The market's expectation of inventory reduction in January and February is seen as a rational response, suggesting a cautious approach to buying on dips for hedging purposes [6].

金 信 期 货 P T A 乙 二 醇 日 刊 本刊由金信期货研究院撰写 PTA 主力合约：12月30日PTA主力期货合约TA605今天上涨0.16%，基差走强至-47元/吨。 ibaotu.com 日度市场情况 基本面：今日PTA华东地区市场价5105元/吨，较前一交易日上涨35元/吨。成本端布伦特原油下跌后持稳在61.5美元/桶左右；供给端 一套220万吨装置近日重启，PTA产能利用率较上一工作日+0.76%至73.60%；周度PTA工厂库存天数3.61天，环比减少0.15天。 主力动向：多头主力增仓 感谢您下载包图网平台上提供的PPT作品，为了您和包图网以及原创作者的利益，请勿复制、传播、销售，否则将承担法律责任！包图网将对作品进行维权，按照传播下载次数进行十倍的索取赔偿！ 走势预期：PTA供应端有增量预期，下游聚酯负荷也从高位下调，供需格局相较之前转向宽松；关注聚酯工厂节前提前放假情况，终 端需求或将转弱。对上游PX2026年的市场一致看法供需偏紧，预计PTA价格跟随成本端高位震荡。 MEG 主力合约：12月30日乙二醇主力期货合约eg2605上涨0.50%，基差走强至-132元/吨。 基本面：今日乙 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - PX/PTA/PF/PR are rated neutral [4] Core Viewpoints - Cost side: There is more consensus on the details of the Russia-Ukraine negotiations, oil prices have retreated again, and geopolitical news is fluctuating. In Q1 next year, there is still significant downward pressure on oil prices [1] - PX: PXN reached $377/ton last last trading day (a $16.00/ton increase from the previous period). PX plants at home and abroad are operating stably. With the current abundant MX supply, PX production can be effectively maintained even if some plants have fluctuations in reformer operations. Recently, PXN has risen significantly to a seasonal high. With the improvement in profitability, there are more restart plans overseas, and more imports are expected due to arbitrage between domestic and foreign markets. There are many PX maintenance plans in Q2 next year, and the long - term outlook is still positive. However, the blending - into - gasoline market shows no obvious improvement, and the risks of increasing supply and declining polyester demand are gradually emerging [1] - TA: The spot basis of the TA main contract is -63 yuan/ton (a 2 yuan/ton increase from the previous period), the PTA spot processing fee is 346 yuan/ton (a 32 yuan/ton increase from the previous period), and the processing fee of the main contract on the futures market is 336 yuan/ton (a 13 yuan/ton increase from the previous period). There are many PTA maintenance plans in the near term. Although the polyester load has decreased, the overall production cut is less than expected. The PTA balance sheet shows inventory reduction in December, and the inventory build - up pressure in January is acceptable. In the long - term, as the cycle of concentrated capacity expansion ends, PTA processing fees are expected to gradually improve [2] - Demand: The polyester operating rate is 90.4% (a 0.7% decrease from the previous period), and the weaving load continues to decline. Since the end of November, domestic orders have weakened rapidly, and坯布 inventory has started to accumulate rapidly. Although there are some samples for spring - summer orders next year or foreign trade orders, there are no large - scale orders yet. Due to the rise in raw material prices, there was restocking this week, and filament inventory has dropped to a low level [3] - Strategy: For single - side trading, be cautious about the risk of capital reduction and price retreat. Pay attention to the capital flow and the change in downstream polyester load for PX; for TA, pay attention to the possibility of plant restart with the improvement of processing fees; for PF, the processing fee is under pressure; for PR, the short - term polyester bottle - chip processing fee is expected to fluctuate within a range [4] Summary by Directory Price and Basis - Figures include TA main contract, basis, and inter - period spread trends; PX main contract trends, basis, and inter - period spread; PTA East China spot basis; and short - fiber 1.56D*38mm semi - bright natural white basis [9][10][12] Upstream Profit and Spread - Figures cover PX processing fee PXN, PTA spot processing fee, South Korean xylene isomerization profit, and South Korean STDP selective disproportionation profit [18][23] International Spread and Import - Export Profit - Figures involve toluene US - Asia spread, toluene South Korean FOB - Japanese naphtha CFR, and PTA export profit [26][28] Upstream PX and PTA Operation - Figures show China's PTA load, South Korea's PTA load, Taiwan's PTA load, China's PX load, and Asia's PX load [29][32][36] Social Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - Figures include PTA weekly social inventory, PX monthly social inventory, PTA total warehouse receipts + forecast volume, PTA warehouse receipt inventory, PX warehouse receipt inventory, and PF warehouse receipt inventory [38][40][41] Downstream Polyester Load - Figures cover filament sales volume, short - fiber sales volume, polyester load, direct - spun filament load, polyester staple fiber load, polyester bottle - chip load, filament DTY factory inventory days, filament FDY factory inventory days, filament POY factory inventory days, Jiangsu and Zhejiang loom operating rate, Jiangsu and Zhejiang texturing machine operating rate, and Jiangsu and Zhejiang dyeing operating rate [49][51][58] PF Detailed Data - Figures include polyester staple fiber load, polyester staple fiber factory equity inventory days, 1.4D physical inventory, 1.4D equity inventory, recycled cotton - type staple fiber load, raw - recycled spread, pure polyester yarn operating rate, pure polyester yarn production profit, polyester - cotton yarn operating rate, and polyester - cotton yarn processing fee [70][74][79] PR Fundamental Detailed Data - Figures cover polyester bottle - chip load, bottle - chip factory bottle - chip inventory days, bottle - chip spot processing fee, bottle - chip export processing fee, bottle - chip export profit, East China water bottle - chip - recycled 3A - grade white bottle - chip spread, bottle - chip next - month spread, and bottle - chip next - next - month spread [93][98][99]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The precious metals market experienced a significant decline on Monday, with silver prices first surging and then plummeting, dragging down other precious metals. The domestic precious metals market also saw sharp drops [9]. - China will be the first economy to pay interest on central bank digital currency, and the new - generation digital RMB system will be launched on January 1, 2026 [9]. - The Chinese People's Liberation Army Eastern Theater Command organized military exercises, and the State Council Tariff Commission announced the 2026 tariff adjustment plan [10]. - The market regulatory总局 deployed key tasks for 2026 and introduced new regulations on food production supervision [11]. - In the futures market, different varieties showed various trends. Some agricultural products and energy - chemical products had price fluctuations, and the stock index futures and options market also had its own characteristics [6][13][18]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Chemical Industry - On December 30, 2025, among chemical products, the prices of coking coal, coke, asphalt, methanol, etc. rose, while the prices of natural rubber, 20 - number rubber, etc. fell. For example, coking coal rose 20.50 to 1,108.50, with a 1.884% increase; natural rubber fell 65.0 to 15,600.00, with a - 0.415% decrease [6]. 2. Agricultural Products - On December 29, 2025, the prices of some agricultural products showed different trends. Sugar prices were in a low - level range, with cost support but limited upside due to supply pressure. Corn prices rebounded, and peanuts were under pressure below 8000 yuan. The pig market showed signs of stabilization, and the egg market had a strong price - increase expectation. Cotton prices had a short - term correction after rising, but the fundamentals remained strong [13]. 3. Energy - Chemical Products - For caustic soda, the market is expected to continue its weak trend due to supply - demand contradictions. Coking coal and coke markets are in a weak and volatile state. Log prices are in a narrow - range shock, and pulp prices have a greater downward risk. Double - offset paper prices have broken through the previous resistance level, and copper and aluminum prices continue to run at a high level. Alumina is in an oversupply situation, and steel prices are in a range - bound state. Ferroalloys are currently treated with a bullish short - term view, and lithium carbonate prices have reversed their previous upward trend [14][15][16]. 4. Option Finance - On December 29, 2025, the three major A - share indexes showed different trends, with more stocks falling than rising. The trading volume exceeded 2 trillion for two consecutive days. The stock index futures and options market had different performance in terms of positions, spreads, and implied volatility. The short - term market may fluctuate, and investors are advised to pay attention to the trading rhythm and moderately increase positions on dips [18][19][20].

Core Viewpoint - The weekly market analysis report from Ruida Futures Research Institute indicates a strong fluctuation in the price of pure benzene, with a slight increase in domestic supply and a general recovery in demand for downstream products [1][2]. Supply Analysis - The operating rate of domestic petroleum benzene facilities is reported at 74.89%, a slight decrease of 0.05 percentage points from the previous week [1]. - The operating rate for hydrogenated benzene has increased by 2.94 percentage points to 59.83%, contributing to a narrow rise in overall domestic pure benzene production [1]. Demand Analysis - There is a general recovery in demand, with downstream product operating rates showing increases. The operating rate for styrene has risen by 1.57 percentage points to 70.7%, while the operating rate for caprolactam has increased by 4.84 percentage points to 74.04% [1]. - The operating rates for phenol, aniline, and adipic acid have also seen increases of 3.22, 1.63, and 4 percentage points respectively. The weighted operating rate for pure benzene's downstream products has risen by 2.59 percentage points to 71.07% [1]. Inventory and Profit Analysis - Due to delayed imports arriving at ports, the inventory of pure benzene at East China ports has increased by 5% to a total of 273,000 tons, which is relatively high for this time of year [1]. - The production profit for petroleum benzene has recovered by 38 yuan/ton, reaching 201 yuan/ton [1]. Future Market Outlook - The report anticipates a slight increase in domestic supply next week, with a 210,000-ton annual capacity petroleum benzene facility in Northeast China planning to restart, along with hydrogenated benzene facilities in Northwest and Southwest China [2]. - Downstream demand is expected to remain stable for styrene, while the caprolactam industry continues its "production reduction to maintain prices" strategy, with some facilities planning to resume operations [2]. - Operating rates for phenol, aniline, and adipic acid are projected to increase [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The chemical sector has recently shown signs of recovery, and the olefin sector, which was at the bottom, rebounded due to market sentiment. However, the supply - demand contradiction still restricts the rebound height. The supply of propylene remains high, and the external sales volume of propylene may continue to increase, while the demand improvement is limited. The cost support has strengthened recently, and attention should be paid to the shutdown of PDH units in the future. For investment, it is recommended to wait and see in the short term as the supply - demand remains loose and the downstream support is weak, so the rebound height may be limited [2][3] Summary by Directory 1. Propylene Basis Structure - Propylene basis data includes the closing price of the main contract, East China basis, Shandong basis, and price differences between different contracts. The closing price of the propylene main contract is 5758 yuan/ton (+126), the East China basis is 92 yuan/ton (-126), and the North China basis is -185 yuan/ton (-71) [1] 2. Propylene Production Profit and Operating Rate - Propylene production profit and operating rate data involve multiple indicators. The propylene operating rate is 74% (+0%), the difference between China's propylene CFR and Japan's naphtha CFR is 200 US dollars/ton (-2), the difference between propylene CFR and 1.2 propane CFR is 41 US dollars/ton (-8), and the import profit is -395 yuan/ton (-75) [1] 3. Propylene Downstream Profit and Operating Rate - For propylene downstream products, the operating rate and production profit vary. For example, the PP powder operating rate is 37% (-2.62%) with a production profit of 25 yuan/ton (+105); the epoxy propane operating rate is 76% (+0%) with a production profit of -276 yuan/ton (-30); the n - butanol operating rate is 78% (+9%) with a production profit of 451 yuan/ton (+115); the octanol operating rate is 82% (+5%) with a production profit of 620 yuan/ton (+75); the acrylic acid operating rate is 79% (+0%) with a production profit of 372 yuan/ton (+0); the acrylonitrile operating rate is 81% (+0%) with a production profit of -352 yuan/ton (+114); the phenol - acetone operating rate is 76% (-4%) with a production profit of -902 yuan/ton (+0) [1] 4. Propylene Inventory - The propylene plant inventory is 46560 tons (+600) [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Cautionary Outlook**: LPG, ethylene glycol, methanol, urea, natural gas [1][3][6] - **Bearish Rebound**: Crude oil, PVC, asphalt [1][25][47] - **Continued Bearish**: L, PP [1] - **Cautious Buying on Dips**: PTA [28] - **Bearish Consolidation**: Glass, soda ash [6] 2. Core Views of the Report - **Crude Oil**: Short - term price rebound due to South American geopolitical uncertainties, but long - term pressure from supply glut in the off - season [1][8] - **LPG**: Weakening due to pressure on the cost side and a large increase in warehouse receipts [12] - **L**: Returning to a weak trend after the new device is put into production, with supply - demand imbalance and inventory pressure [16] - **PP**: Weak and volatile with cost support weakening and high inventory removal pressure [20] - **PVC**: High inventory restricts the rebound space, and attention should be paid to future maintenance efforts [24] - **PTA**: Good supply - demand pattern, with opportunities to buy on dips [28] - **MEG**: Weak supply - demand and inventory build - up expectations, with opportunities to short on rebounds [31] - **Methanol**: Caution when chasing long positions, with supply pressure and slightly weakened demand [34] - **Urea**: Supply - side pressure is expected to increase, with a weak and volatile trend [39] - **LNG**: Abundant supply leads to downward pressure on gas prices [43] - **Asphalt**: Oscillating strongly due to increased South American geopolitical uncertainties [47] - **Glass**: Low - level oscillation with high inventory restricting the rebound space [51] - **Soda Ash**: Weak and volatile with supply increasing and demand decreasing [54] 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Crude Oil - **Market Performance**: Overnight international oil prices rebounded, with WTI up 0.64%, Brent up 0.47%, and SC up 2.10% [7] - **Basic Logic**: Short - term boost from South American geopolitical uncertainties; long - term downward pressure from supply glut in the off - season and inventory build - up [8] - **Fundamentals**: Supply side, the US intercepted oil tankers in Venezuelan waters; demand side, IEA expects an increase in global oil demand in 2025 and 2026; inventory side, US crude oil and product inventories showed mixed changes [9] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions, and pay attention to the range of SC [435 - 445] [10] 3.2 LPG - **Market Performance**: On December 23, the PG main contract closed at 4055 yuan/ton, down 1.10% [13] - **Basic Logic**: Anchored to the cost - side crude oil, with supply increasing and inventory decreasing; warehouse receipts increased [14] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Continue to hold short positions, and pay attention to the range of PG [4050 - 4150] [15] 3.3 L - **Market Performance**: L05 basis was - 216 yuan/ton, and the warehouse receipt was 11265 lots [18] - **Basic Logic**: New device put into production, with supply - demand imbalance, low profit, and high inventory removal pressure [19] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Partially stop losses on short positions in the short - term; wait to short on rebounds in the long - term; hold short positions on the LP05 spread [19] 3.4 PP - **Market Performance**: PP05 basis was - 46 yuan/ton, and the warehouse receipt was 10772 lots [22] - **Basic Logic**: Cost support weakened, with high inventory removal pressure and low PDH profit [23] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Partially stop losses on short positions in the short - term; wait to short on rebounds in the long - term; short the MTO05 [23] 3.5 PVC - **Market Performance**: V05 basis was - 318 yuan/ton, and the warehouse receipt was 108044 lots [26] - **Basic Logic**: High inventory restricts the rebound space, with supply - demand in the off - season and some devices reducing loads [27] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Partially stop profits on long positions; wait to buy on pull - backs in the long - term; industrial customers hedge at high prices [27] 3.6 PTA - **Market Performance**: TA05 price was 4674 yuan/ton [28] - **Basic Logic**: Processing fees improved, with supply decreasing due to device maintenance and demand expected to weaken; inventory pressure is not large in the short - term but there is a build - up expectation in January [29] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Pay attention to opportunities to buy TA05 on dips, and focus on the range of TA [5040 - 5150] [30] 3.7 MEG - **Market Performance**: EG05 price was 3619 yuan/ton [31] - **Basic Logic**: Domestic production load increased, overseas devices expected to reduce loads, demand expected to weaken, and inventory build - up expected in December [32] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Look for opportunities to short on rebounds, and focus on the range of EG05 [3590 - 3680] [33] 3.8 Methanol - **Market Performance**: Taicang spot price weakened slightly, with negative basis strengthening [36] - **Basic Logic**: Port inventory decreased, social inventory increased; supply pressure remained, and demand weakened slightly [36] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Do not chase long positions, and pay attention to opportunities to buy methanol 05 on dips [38] 3.9 Urea - **Market Performance**: U05 price was 1697 yuan/ton [39] - **Basic Logic**: Supply - side pressure expected to increase, demand expected to weaken, inventory at a relatively high level, and cost support weak [40] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Expected to be weak and volatile, pay attention to opportunities to buy U05 on dips, and focus on the range of UR05 [1680 - 1710] [42] 3.10 LNG - **Market Performance**: On December 22, the NG main contract closed at 3.965 US dollars/million British thermal units, down 0.48% [45] - **Basic Logic**: Demand support decreased due to mild weather, supply was abundant, and gas prices were under pressure [46] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Pay attention to the range of NG [3.748 - 4.134] [46] 3.11 Asphalt - **Market Performance**: On December 23, the BU main contract closed at 2909 yuan/ton, up 2.96% [48] - **Basic Logic**: Anchored to the cost - side crude oil, with supply - demand imbalance and price rebound due to South American geopolitical uncertainties [49] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Partially stop losses on short positions, and pay attention to the range of BU [2950 - 3050] [50] 3.12 Glass - **Market Performance**: FG05 basis was - 11 yuan/ton, and the warehouse receipt was 244 lots [52] - **Basic Logic**: High inventory restricts the rebound space, with weak demand and negative profit for three processes [53] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Partially stop losses on short positions in the short - term; wait to short on rebounds in the long - term, and focus on the range of FG [1000 - 1050] [53] 3.13 Soda Ash - **Market Performance**: SA05 basis was - 35 yuan/ton, and the warehouse receipt was 4523 lots [56] - **Basic Logic**: Supply increased and demand decreased, with high inventory and weak demand support [57] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Partially stop losses on short positions; wait to short on rebounds in the long - term, and focus on the range of SA [1140 - 1190] [57]

Group 1 - PTA futures showed a strong performance, with the main contract reaching 4982.00 CNY/ton, an increase of 3.32% [1] - As of December 19, the number of PTA futures warehouse receipts was 129,107, a decrease of 690 from the previous trading day [2] - In November 2025, China's PTA imports were 0.03 million tons, a decrease of 0.036 million tons from the previous month, representing a decline of 55.78% [2] Group 2 - Donghai Futures indicated that the supply-demand outlook for next year is improving, leading to a significant increase in PTA prices due to self-discipline production cuts by major manufacturers [4] - Hualian Futures noted that while oil prices remain low, geopolitical complexities and a strong gold market provide some support for oil prices, impacting the polyester supply chain [4] - The processing fee for PTA is at a multi-year low but is expected to strengthen, with production rates anticipated to rise and low inventory levels for both production enterprises and social stocks [4]

消息面 12月17日亚洲地区对苯乙烯市场收盘价格下跌10美元/吨，收盘价格为790-800美元/吨FOB韩国和800-810美元/吨CFR中国。 截至2025年12月11日，国内苯乙烯开工率68.11%，环比-0.74pct，同比-4.4pct。周度产量33.88万吨，较上期降0.36万吨，东北一套装置停车，另 外，东北、山东和华南各有一套装置负荷调整。 12月16日，苯乙烯前20名期货公司(全月份合约加总)多单持仓31.84万手，空单持仓35.03万手，多空比0.91。净持仓为-3.19万手，相较上日减少 5346手。 目前苯乙烯非一体化利润中性偏低，估值向上修复空间较大。成本端纯苯开工中性震荡，供应量依然偏宽。供应端乙苯脱氢利润下降，苯乙烯开 工持续上行。苯乙烯港口库存持续大幅累库；季节性淡季，需求端三S整体开工率震荡上涨。纯苯港口库存持续累库，苯乙烯港口库存持续去 化，截止明年一季度前可做多苯乙烯非一体化利润。 机构观点 瑞达期货： 五矿期货： 上周宝来35万吨装置故障停车，部分地区装置负荷下调，苯乙烯产量、产能利用率环比下降。下游开工率以降为主，EPS、PS、ABS消耗量环比 下降。工厂、港口库存去化 ...