星石投资表示，短期来看，市场成交相对稳定，板块分化和跷跷板现象明显，可能意味着当前资金缺少 共识、博弈性增强，预计后续市场整体或保持震荡。在此过程中，市场筹码充分交换，将夯实基础，为 后续股市表现蓄势。从中期角度看，国内内生动能正在修复，全市场有望进入业绩释放期，股市主要驱 动因素有望由估值端转为业绩端，叠加A股整体的股债比价仍处于历史中高水平，A股仍处于"慢牛"驱 动中。 11月18日，三大股指盘中震荡下探，午后加速下行，创业板指跌超1%，场内超4100股飘绿。 截至收盘，沪指跌0.81%报3939.81点，深证成指跌0.92%报13080.49点，创业板指跌1.16%报3069.22点， 北证50指数大跌近3%，科创50指数逆市涨0.29%，沪深北三市合计成交19461亿元。 盘面上看，煤炭、钢铁、有色、化工、地产、电力、石油等板块走低，半导体板块拉升，AI应用、存 储芯片、网游概念等活跃。 （文章来源：证券时报网） ...

Group 1: AI and Digital Marketing - Company is developing OrangeGPT, an AI training and big data analysis platform that integrates RAG technology and industry marketing knowledge, capable of multimodal generation including text and image [2] - FastMai Xiaozhi, a subsidiary, has integrated and supports DeepSeek; the company has also opened public testing for its intelligent agent [2] - Company has established strong partnerships in digital marketing with platforms like Douyin, Xiaohongshu, and Bilibili, accumulating a large number of quality clients [2] Group 2: Semiconductor and Storage - Company focuses on semiconductor storage products, primarily NAND and DRAM, with a subsidiary that has products applicable in data centers [2] - Company is involved in the lithium resource extraction and recycling business, with projects in Tibet and Argentina, and has completed a lithium carbonate production line with an annual capacity of 2,000 tons [3] Group 3: Consumer Goods and Retail - Company is a leading domestic men's pants brand located in Xiamen, Fujian, and has seen significant stock performance with five consecutive trading limits [3] - Company operates in the daily ceramic products sector and has also experienced a strong stock performance with three consecutive trading limits [3] Group 4: Strategic Acquisitions and Investments - Company plans to acquire Tianyi Chemical, a leader in brominated flame retardants [4] - Company intends to invest up to 540 million in acquiring Kuixin Technology, expanding into the semiconductor sector [4] - Company is involved in the natural gas business and plans to purchase related assets from its controlling shareholder [4] Group 5: Free Trade and Economic Development - High-standard construction of Hainan Free Trade Port is underway, with a closure set to start on December 18 [5] - Company has significant land holdings in Hainan for industrial use, focusing on non-woven fabric products [5] Group 6: Robotics and Automation - Company specializes in intelligent control valves, essential for industrial internet and IoT applications [4] - Company is developing intelligent cockpit and assisted driving products, with several features already implemented [5]

Industry Overview Upstream - Nickel prices declined, while aluminum prices slightly rebounded in the non-ferrous sector [2] - Glass prices slightly decreased in the black sector [2] - Egg prices slightly dropped in the agricultural sector [2] Midstream - The PX开工率 remained at a high level, while the PTA开工率 continued to decline in the chemical industry [2] - Power plant coal consumption was low, and inventory increased in the energy sector [2] - The asphalt开工率 decreased in the infrastructure sector [2] Downstream - Commodity housing sales in second - and third - tier cities declined seasonally in the real estate sector [3] - The number of domestic flights remained stable at a high level in the service sector [3] Macroeconomic Data Production Industry - From January to October, the added value of the equipment manufacturing industry increased by 9.5% year - on - year, contributing over half and becoming the main engine driving industrial growth [1] - In the energy and key raw materials fields, high - quality coal production capacity continued to be released, but due to the global AI boom, there was a shortage and significant price increase in chips, with some prices rising by up to 60% compared to September [1] Service Industry - In October 2025, banks settled foreign exchange worth 1519.4 billion yuan and sold foreign exchange worth 1394 billion yuan. From January to October 2025, banks cumulatively settled foreign exchange worth 14794.1 billion yuan and sold foreign exchange worth 14220.1 billion yuan [1] - From January to October 2025, the national general public budget revenue was 18649 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.8%; the national general public budget expenditure was 22582.5 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 2% [1] - The national government - sponsored fund budget revenue was 3447.3 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 2.8%; the national government - sponsored fund budget expenditure was 8089.2 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 15.4% [1] Key Industry Price Indicators | Industry | Indicator | Price on 11/17 | YoY | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Agriculture | Spot price of corn | 2174.3 yuan/ton | 0.80% | | | Spot price of eggs | 6.4 yuan/kg | - 1.54% | | | Spot price of palm oil | 8700.0 yuan/ton | - 0.37% | | | Spot price of cotton | 14799.2 yuan/ton | - 0.28% | | | Average wholesale price of pork | 18.0 yuan/kg | - 0.72% | | Non - ferrous metals | Spot price of copper | 86553.3 yuan/ton | 0.01% | | | Spot price of zinc | 22380.0 yuan/ton | - 0.79% | | | Spot price of aluminum | 21920.0 yuan/ton | 1.94% | | | Spot price of nickel | 119033.3 yuan/ton | - 2.16% | | Ferrous metals | Spot price of aluminum | 17343.8 yuan/ton | - 0.25% | | | Spot price of rebar | 3164.3 yuan/ton | 1.00% | | | Spot price of iron ore | 800.0 yuan/ton | 1.58% | | | Spot price of wire rod | 3297.5 yuan/ton | 0.00% | | | Spot price of glass | 13.8 yuan/sq.m | - 1.43% | | Non - metals | Spot price of natural rubber | 14900.0 yuan/ton | 1.42% | | | China Plastic City price index | 769.1 | - 0.54% | | Energy | Spot price of WTI crude oil | 60.1 dollars/barrel | 0.57% | | | Spot price of Brent crude oil | 64.4 dollars/barrel | 1.19% | | | Spot price of liquefied natural gas | 4202.0 yuan/ton | - 0.94% | | | Coal price | 834.0 yuan/ton | 0.85% | | Chemical | Spot price of PTA | 4647.0 yuan/ton | 0.03% | | | Spot price of polyethylene | 6991.7 yuan/ton | 0.36% | | | Spot price of urea | 1630.0 yuan/ton | 0.15% | | | Spot price of soda ash | 1218.6 yuan/ton | 0.89% | | Real estate | Cement price index (national) | 137.7 | 0.95% | | | Building materials composite index | - | 1.11% | | | Concrete price index (national) | 90.8 | - 0.14% | [33]

Core Insights - The report indicates that China's defense equipment construction is entering a new cycle driven by both "steady growth in domestic demand" and "release of external potential" [15] - The global asset allocation environment is expected to transition from preventive interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve to a re-inflation cycle driven by both fiscal and monetary policy easing [8][10] - The manufacturing industry is anticipated to experience a structural recovery, with a focus on cyclical assets as economic demand stabilizes and PPI (Producer Price Index) begins to rise [10][11] Group 1: Global Asset Allocation Strategy - The report outlines three major trading themes for 2025, including the breaking of the "American exceptionalism" narrative, the impact of a weak dollar, and the tightening of liquidity due to government shutdowns [8] - It emphasizes the importance of monitoring liquidity turning points and their effects on asset rotation, suggesting a shift from liquidity-driven to fundamental-driven asset logic in China [8][10] - Tactical strategies for 2026 include balancing equity and bond allocations initially, then shifting to an overweight position in equities as inflation and corporate earnings recover [8][10] Group 2: Industry-Specific Investment Strategies - The defense and military industry is highlighted as a key area for investment, with a focus on modernization and technological advancements in military equipment [15] - The report identifies opportunities in the light manufacturing sector, particularly in global supply chain shifts and the competitive advantages of leading companies [15][16] - It suggests that cyclical assets, particularly in sectors like power equipment, chemicals, and non-ferrous metals, will benefit from the anticipated recovery in PPI and economic demand [12][15] Group 3: Economic and Market Trends - The report predicts a stabilization in economic demand and a gradual recovery in PPI, which will influence market style factors and lead to a rotation from technology growth to cyclical assets [10][11] - It notes that the historical relationship between M1-M2 growth rates and A-share performance suggests a potential upturn in corporate profitability and stock market performance in 2026 [11][12] - The report also highlights the importance of government policies, such as the "Fifteen Five" plan, which emphasizes economic construction and modernization of industries [12][15]

Core Viewpoint - The current A-share market is characterized by a paradox where retail investors are experiencing significant losses while institutional investors are increasing their positions, indicating a potential market bottom and the possibility of a forthcoming bull market [1][3]. Market Behavior - In November 2025, the market fluctuated between 3300 and 3400 points, with trading volumes varying from over 1 trillion to below 800 billion [1]. - The current market resembles the pre-bull market phases of 2014 and early 2019, marked by sideways trading and widespread declines in individual stocks [1]. Institutional vs Retail Dynamics - As 90% of retail investors face losses, institutional funds are quietly accumulating shares, with data showing that institutional buying exceeded 300 million in certain stocks during declines, while retail holdings dropped by approximately 40% [3]. - The phenomenon of "panic selling" aligns with typical characteristics of a mid-bull market consolidation phase [3]. Broker Performance - Historically, broker stocks have been pivotal in initiating bull markets, but in November 2025, the broker sector is underperforming, which may indicate a buildup of energy before a potential breakout [4]. - The concentration of retail holdings in the broker sector has decreased to levels similar to those seen in 2020 [4]. Capital Flows - There is a significant shift in capital, with non-bank deposits increasing by 2.1 trillion in July 2025, indicating a trend of funds moving from savings to the stock market [6]. - Foreign capital is also returning, with sovereign funds from countries like Saudi Arabia increasing their A-share holdings by over 10 billion [6]. Timing and Market Signals - Historically, bull markets have often started in late November, with previous instances in 2014 and 2020 leading to substantial index gains [7]. - Current market conditions, including a supportive policy environment and technical indicators, suggest a potential rapid rise in the index if the securities and technology sectors conclude their consolidation [7]. Sectoral Disparities - The market is experiencing significant sectoral divergence, with certain sectors like AI and humanoid robots seeing gains over 200% since May 2025, while traditional sectors like banking and real estate remain sluggish [9]. - Institutional investors are strategically focusing on high-barrier technology sectors, such as solid-state batteries, rather than the entire industry chain [10].

Global Investment Trends - Global investment conditions remain sluggish in the first half of 2025, with foreign direct investment (FDI) declining by 3%, marking the third consecutive year of decline [1][2] - Geopolitical tensions, trade frictions, and companies reassessing supply chain risks contribute to cautious investment sentiment [1][2] Greenfield Investment - Greenfield investment, a key indicator of new capital expenditure and future production capacity, has seen a significant decline, with a 17% drop in global projects [2] - Developed and developing countries experienced declines of 20% and 12% respectively, contrasting with the recovery period from 2023 to 2024 [2] - Manufacturing greenfield projects decreased by 26%, particularly in sectors related to global supply chains such as electronics, machinery, automotive, and textiles [2] International Project Financing - International project financing, primarily in infrastructure sectors like energy and transportation, has sharply decreased due to high interest rates and rising geopolitical risks [3] - Renewable energy projects saw a 9% decline, while other electricity projects experienced a 38% drop in project numbers and a 52% decrease in investment amounts [3] - Domestic project financing has increased by 39% in number and 29% in amount, indicating a shift as local capital attempts to fill the gap left by international capital withdrawal [3] Cross-Border Mergers and Acquisitions - Cross-border M&A activity has significantly decreased, with total deal value dropping from $448 billion in 2024 to $172 billion in 2025 [4] - The U.S. and U.K. saw declines of 33% and 59% respectively, with overall European M&A activity down by approximately 1% [4] - There is an increase in divestitures and withdrawals, leading to instability in M&A activities in developing countries [4] Sustainable Development Goals Impact - The weak international investment climate negatively affects the achievement of sustainable development goals, with related project numbers declining by 10% and investment amounts down by 7% [4] - This trend indicates a reduction in both the number of projects and the average size of individual projects, further weakening capital formation capabilities in developing countries [4] Future Investment Landscape - The global investment landscape is expected to become more "regionalized" and "friend-shored," with investments favoring politically friendly countries [5] - Manufacturing related to supply chains will continue to face pressure, with developed countries likely to repatriate critical manufacturing processes [5] - Digital economy and artificial intelligence are projected to be the only bright spots for global investment growth, driven by strategic emphasis on AI and semiconductor development [5]

受全球贸易摩擦升级、地缘政治紧张，以及企业对供应链风险重新评估等因素影响，2025年上半年，全 球投资状况持续低迷。国际投资活动的绿地投资、国际项目融资、跨境并购均出现显著下降。未来，国 际投资短期内难以实质性改善，全球投资格局将更趋"区域化"与"友岸化"，数字经济与人工智能有望成 为全球投资增长的唯一亮点。 日前，联合国贸易和发展会议发布《全球投资趋势监测报告》第49期指出，2025年上半年，全球投资状 况持续低迷。全球范围内的外国直接投资下降3%，已连续第3年呈下降趋势。受全球贸易摩擦升级、地 缘政治紧张，以及企业对供应链风险重新评估等因素影响，投资情绪持续谨慎。 报告指出，作为国际投资活动的三大主要类型，绿地投资、国际项目融资、跨境并购均出现显著下降。 其中，绿地投资是反映企业新的资本开支与未来生产能力布局的核心指标。2025年上半年，该类投资呈 现出明显萎缩态势，全球绿地投资项目下降17%，其中，发达国家和发展中国家下降幅度分别为20%和 12%，与2023年至2024年的回升期形成反差。其中，制造业绿地项目跌幅最突出，项目数量减少26%， 下滑主要集中在全球供应链相关的电子、机械设备、汽车、纺织业等 ...

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the Chinese market, focusing on various sectors including technology, manufacturing, aviation, oil shipping, chemicals, and consumer goods [1][4][5][6]. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Market Outlook**: The index is expected to rise to 4,200-4,300 points from December to February, driven by product structure adjustments and increased capital inflow, alongside supportive policies from the upcoming "15th Five-Year Plan" [1][3]. 2. **Valuation Expansion**: The Chinese market is currently in a valuation expansion phase, with reduced fears of sanctions due to changing perceptions of US-China relations and rationalized economic policies [4][6]. 3. **Sector Recommendations**: - **Technology Sector**: Focus on AI, internet, new energy vehicles, electronic semiconductors, and media communications [5]. - **Manufacturing**: Global expansion in power equipment, machinery, and auto parts [5]. - **Aviation**: Strong fundamentals with record high passenger load factors and low ticket prices, indicating a potential super cycle [10]. - **Oil Shipping**: Record high freight rates expected to lead to the highest profits in a decade due to OPEC production increases and geopolitical factors [11]. - **Chemicals**: Optimism for leading companies benefiting from supply-side optimization and cost advantages [3][16]. - **Consumer Goods**: Opportunities in food, beverages, and retail sectors, particularly for companies with low stock and strong fundamentals [7][30]. Additional Important Insights 1. **Economic Recovery**: The upcoming year is expected to show a high probability of economic recovery, particularly in traditional sectors like cyclical and consumer goods [6]. 2. **Investment Strategies**: Investors are advised to focus on companies with low stock prices and strong fundamentals, especially in the consumer goods sector [7][9]. 3. **Brokerage Role**: Brokerages are anticipated to play a crucial role in market advancement, especially as capital market reforms progress [8]. 4. **Metal Industry Outlook**: Positive expectations for the metal sector, with industrial metals likely to benefit from global liquidity and emerging demands from AI infrastructure and new energy vehicles [18][19]. 5. **Chemical Industry Trends**: The chemical sector has seen significant supply-side optimization, with leading companies expected to benefit from a recovery in demand and pricing [13][14][16]. 6. **Oil Market Dynamics**: Current oil market conditions show a supply surplus, but OPEC's cautious production increases are expected to support prices in the medium term [24]. Conclusion The conference call highlights a generally optimistic outlook for the Chinese market across various sectors, with specific recommendations for investment opportunities in technology, aviation, oil shipping, chemicals, and consumer goods. The anticipated economic recovery and supportive policies are expected to drive market performance in the coming months.

Economic Indicators - The GDP weekly high-frequency prosperity index as of November 15 is 4.7%, slightly down from the revised 4.8% of the previous week, indicating a slowdown in economic growth[1] - The industrial weekly prosperity index is at 8.1%, down from 8.2% the previous week, while the service industry index is at 3.0%, down from 3.1%[9] Production Sector - Both service and industrial high-frequency indicators have declined compared to the previous week[12] - The average daily output of key iron-making enterprises has increased, indicating some recovery in industrial production[12] Demand Side - Domestic demand remains weak, while external demand shows resilience, with container throughput for exports increasing to 680.9 thousand TEUs, up from 671.8 thousand TEUs the previous week[53] - The consumer high-frequency index has slightly risen to 2.9%, up from 2.6% the previous week, reflecting a modest recovery in consumer activity[9] Real Estate Market - The weekly sales of commercial housing in 30 major cities increased to 146 million square meters, a 7% rise from the previous week, but down 34% year-on-year[45] - The land transaction area decreased significantly, with 631 million square meters sold, down 195.3 million square meters from the previous week[45] Price Trends - Consumer goods prices remained stable, while industrial goods prices showed signs of recovery, with the agricultural wholesale price index rising by 0.37% week-on-week[57] - The average price of pork decreased by 0.19% week-on-week, while the prices of key vegetables and fruits saw slight increases of 0.14% and 0.54%, respectively[63]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the current market uptrend is driven by a persistent and potentially increasing policy easing environment [3][5][17] - The stock market has shown a significant divergence from economic performance this year, indicating that policies have effectively targeted current economic issues [4][10] - The contribution of a few leading companies to the overall market performance is notable, with five companies in the CSI 300 index contributing 22% to its gains [7][26] Group 2 - The upcoming five years are crucial for establishing a modern industrial system, with a focus on technological innovation [8][32] - The proportion of technology in the economy is expected to surpass that of consumption for the first time, marking a significant shift in economic structure [9][34] - The stock market's recovery is anticipated to boost consumer confidence and spending, which is currently low compared to developed countries [13][15] Group 3 - The current market is believed to be in the second phase of a bull market, characterized by gradual improvement in fundamentals [6][25] - Historical patterns suggest that the current bull market, which began in September 2024, has not yet reached its full potential [18][20] - The technology sector is expected to continue its upward trajectory, driven by the ongoing AI revolution and its applications [29][31] Group 4 - The concept of "old economy assets" is highlighted, suggesting that sectors like real estate and liquor, which have underperformed, may see a resurgence [35][39] - The long-term outlook for the equity market remains optimistic, with expectations of higher returns as the economy transitions to higher value-added industries [40][48] - The importance of aligning investment strategies with long-term economic trends is emphasized, particularly in the context of China's evolving industrial landscape [46][47]