Group 1 - The report suggests an industry allocation strategy termed "4+1," focusing on technology growth, self-control, and military sectors, including liquid cooling, robotics, gaming, AI applications, and military technologies such as missiles, drones, satellites, and deep-sea technology. Additionally, it highlights the fintech and brokerage sectors due to their high correlation with indices [1] - The cyclical sectors benefiting from the expectation of marginal improvement in PPI and some low-level rebound include steel, chemicals, non-ferrous metals, and building materials, with potential valuation recovery opportunities in insurance, liquor, and real estate [1] - The report identifies sectors with anti-involution elasticity and broader potential, indicating that the current anti-involution trend extends beyond traditional cyclical industries, with mid-term potential in solar energy, lithium batteries, engineering machinery, healthcare, and certain manufacturing and growth directions in Hong Kong's Hang Seng Internet [1] - Structural opportunities for overseas expansion are noted, particularly due to the easing of China-Europe trade relations, benefiting high-export categories like automobiles and wind power, as well as niche exports such as snacks [1] - The report emphasizes the importance of stable dividend stocks, gold, and optimized high-dividend assets for foundational investment [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong stock market has shown strong performance this year, driven by multiple core competitive advantages of Chinese assets, which are expected to enhance their attractiveness to international capital [1][2]. Group 1: Factors Driving Hong Kong Stock Market Strength - Three main factors are identified as driving the strength of the Hong Kong stock market: the "hard technology" wave, the rise of the "new economy," and the weakening of the US dollar [2]. - The "hard technology" revolution is expected to bring profound changes to production and lifestyle, with leading Chinese internet companies poised to capitalize on AI applications [2]. - The "new economy" has become a pillar of the Hong Kong stock market, with its market capitalization share increasing from 27% at the end of 2015 to an expected 51% by the end of 2024 [2]. - The weakening US dollar has led to a reallocation of funds, with a slowdown in foreign capital outflow from the Hong Kong market, making it an attractive option for global capital seeking undervalued assets [2]. Group 2: Core Competitive Advantages of Chinese Assets - Chinese assets possess three core competitive advantages: a complete modern industrial system, increased R&D investment leading to brand premium, and significant long-term investments in core technology fields [3]. - The manufacturing sector in China has achieved low-cost, high-efficiency capabilities through vertical integration and scale advantages [3]. - Chinese companies are increasingly recognized for their global competitiveness in areas such as AI, semiconductors, new energy, and aerospace [3]. Group 3: Investment Opportunities in A-Share Market - The A-share market presents four key investment opportunities: stable cash returns in sectors like telecommunications, finance, and utilities; potential in the internet sector and consumer sub-industries due to policy support and AI commercialization; growth in the biopharmaceutical industry driven by improved policies and global competitiveness; and a stabilization in the real estate sector along with improved prospects for chemicals and raw materials [3].

Group 1: PPI Trends and Economic Impact - Since July, the "anti-involution" policy has led to a rebound in some commodity prices, suggesting that PPI may stabilize and rise in the second half of the year[1] - As of July 2025, the cumulative decline in PPI is 9.6%, with a duration of 37 months, which is longer than the median duration of previous declines[10] - If PPI stabilizes and rises, it is expected to accelerate corporate profits, nominal GDP growth, and residents' income growth[1] - During PPI rising periods, the median year-on-year growth rate of industrial enterprises' revenue is 24.1%, while during falling periods, it drops to 5.4%[21] Group 2: Industry and Consumption Insights - In July, China's retail sales growth narrowed to 3.7%, the lowest in six months, indicating a slowdown in consumer spending[35] - The operating rate of blast furnaces remains above 83%, while PTA operating rates have seen significant declines recently[35] - The real estate market has shown signs of cooling after a brief improvement in transaction volumes[35] Group 3: Macro Policy and Market Performance - The central bank has implemented policies to maintain liquidity and reduce financing costs, including interest subsidies for personal consumption loans[3] - As of August 16, the Chinese equity market has outperformed major asset classes, driven by a strong M1 growth rate and reduced deposit willingness due to equity market gains[2] - The upcoming Jackson Hole global central bank meeting from August 21 to 23 is a key event to watch for potential policy implications[65] Group 4: Risks and Considerations - There are concerns regarding the sustainability of macro policies, potential declines in the real estate market, and increasing geopolitical risks[66] - The high actual interest rates resulting from declining PPI may suppress credit demand, impacting overall economic activity[32]

证券分析师 黄伟平 A0230524110002 huangwp@swsresearch.com 栾强 A0230524110003 luanqiang@swsresearch.com 研究支持 2025 年 08 月 16 日 供需双承压，但债市仍谨慎 债 券 策 略 相关研究 债 券 研 究 王哲一 A0230123100001 wangzy@swsresearch.com 联系人 王哲一 (8621)23297818× wangzy@swsresearch.com ——7 月经济数据点评 ⚫ 消费于今年 5-6 月触顶后持续走弱，促消费相关政策加码效果等待验证。 2025 年 1-7 月社零累计同比增速 4.8%，较 1-6 月下行 0.2pcts; 其中餐饮 零售拖累较大，2025 年 1-7 月餐饮累计同比增速 3.8%，较 1-6 月下行 0.5pcts。我们此前提示 2025 年消费走强更多源于政策补贴，尚未形成居民 收入和消费的良性循环，原因在于 2025 年至今居民新增短贷不强，居民消 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 证 券 研 究 ...

Core Viewpoint - The financial report of CK Hutchison Holdings revealed a dramatic 92% drop in net profit, attributed to a one-time non-cash loss from the merger of its UK telecom business, which obscured the underlying growth in core operations [1][3]. Financial Performance - The company's net profit attributable to ordinary shareholders for the first half of 2025 was only HKD 852 million, down from HKD 10.205 billion in the previous year [2]. - Excluding the one-time non-cash loss of HKD 10.469 billion, the actual profit would have been HKD 11.321 billion, reflecting an 11% year-on-year increase [1][2]. - Total revenue for the first half of 2025 was HKD 240.663 billion, compared to HKD 232.644 billion in 2024 [2]. Strategic Moves - The company has remained silent on a significant transaction involving the sale of 43 ports valued at USD 22.8 billion to a BlackRock consortium, indicating a strategic adjustment in response to regulatory pressures [5]. - The management hinted that the transaction would be postponed until after 2025 and is seeking to involve major mainland investors [5]. Business Segments - The port division reported revenue of HKD 235.97 billion, a 9% increase, with significant growth in storage revenue from Mexico and Europe [7]. - Retail business revenue grew by 8%, driven by strong sales of health and beauty products in the UK and Poland [7]. Challenges - The retail business in mainland China showed weak performance due to sluggish consumer spending, and the real estate sector faced significant challenges, with a 92% drop in sales revenue in Hong Kong [7]. - The vacancy rate in Hong Kong's office market reached a historical high of 17%, reflecting the struggles of the real estate segment [7]. Cash Management Strategy - The company emphasized a cautious approach to capital expenditure and new investments, maintaining strict cash flow management [8]. - As of June 30, the total cash and liquid investments amounted to HKD 1,372.68 billion, with a net debt to total capital ratio of 14.7% [10]. - The merger with the UK telecom business generated approximately HKD 13 billion in cash, contributing to a substantial "cash moat" for the company [10].

Core Viewpoints - The A-share market is experiencing a "systematic slow bull" pattern, with the Shanghai Composite Index breaking through the 2024 high of 3674, indicating a potential target of 3731, the peak of the 2021 structural bull market [1][4][57] - The report emphasizes a balanced allocation strategy focusing on "large finance + broad technology" sectors, suggesting to increase short and medium-term positions near key support levels [1][5][58] Weekly Market Overview - Major indices recorded positive returns, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising 1.70%, and the ChiNext Index showing a significant increase of 8.58% [12][55] - The financial and technology sectors are driving market performance, with comprehensive financial and non-bank financial sectors rising by 7.07% and 6.57% respectively [15][55] - The real estate sector showed signs of recovery, with a 3.79% increase, while the red-chip style weakened, with banks dropping by 3.22% [56] Market Sentiment and Capital Flow - The average daily trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets increased to 2.08 trillion yuan, up from 1.68 trillion yuan the previous week [23] - The margin trading balance rose to 2.05 trillion yuan, with a financing buy-in ratio of 10.6% [30] - The medical ETF saw the highest net inflow of 1.42 billion yuan, while the electronic ETF experienced the largest outflow of 2.38 billion yuan [30] Market Attribution - Key events influencing the market include the suspension of the 24% tariff by the US and China for 90 days, and the introduction of "dual interest subsidy" policies to support consumer markets [3][51][55] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed a mild recovery, indicating signs of demand-side improvement [55] Future Market Outlook - The report anticipates continued upward momentum in the market, with the Shanghai Composite Index expected to target 3731, while emphasizing the importance of key support levels at the 20-day and 60-day moving averages [4][57] - The "systematic slow bull" nature of the current market suggests that sectors that are relatively undervalued will eventually be validated [57] Investment Strategy - The report recommends a balanced allocation strategy focusing on "large finance + broad technology," while also increasing attention to previously lagging sectors like real estate [5][58] - Investors are advised to avoid short-term trading strategies that could lead to missed opportunities and instead focus on building positions near key support levels [5][58]

Core Viewpoint - The current market trend shows a rapid rotation between value and growth stocks, reminiscent of the market dynamics observed from 2013 to 2017, with potential for various sectors to experience upward momentum [4][5][6][26]. Market Performance - The overall market closed higher today, returning to a rating of 4.5 stars, with small and mid-cap stocks showing more significant gains compared to large-cap stocks [1][2][3]. - The Hong Kong stock market has been relatively sluggish, experiencing a decline today, despite having seen three waves of increases since last September [8][9][10]. Historical Comparison - The current market conditions are compared to the period from 2013 to 2017, where the A-share market faced a bear market due to poor fundamentals and declining corporate profits [13][28]. - The introduction of stimulus policies in 2014 led to a significant recovery in the market, particularly in the financial sector, which drove the overall market upward [14][15]. - The years 2016-2017 saw a recovery in the fundamentals of listed companies, leading to a slow bull market for value stocks, while growth stocks experienced a downturn [21][24]. Future Outlook - The market is expected to follow a similar trajectory to 2013-2014, with a potential recovery in corporate fundamentals anticipated in the latter half of 2024, coinciding with expected interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [28][29][30]. - The first wave of the upcoming market rally is likely to be led by the financial sector, with small-cap and technology stocks expected to follow suit in 2025 [31][32]. Investment Strategy - The investment approach remains consistent: buy during market dips and sell during peaks, while maintaining patience for optimal exit opportunities [45][47]. - The prolonged bear market from 2022 to 2024 has provided ample opportunities for accumulating quality assets through systematic investment [46].

盘面上看，券商板块大幅拉升，半导体、有色、汽车、化工、保险、地产等板块均上扬；液冷服务器、 PCB概念、新型电池、光刻机概念等活跃。 东莞证券表示，大盘延续交易放大趋势，但随着指数的快速上涨，在高位出现一定的分化，前期涨幅较 高的板块普遍开始回调，市场分歧开始显现。由于市场此前的上涨累积了一定的获利盘，获利盘回吐压 力显现，此外，历史套牢盘的解套也对指数上攻形成一定压力，投资者需要注意高位的震荡调整风险， 虽然短期市场出现技术性调整，但中期来看，支撑A股向好的核心逻辑并未改变。 （文章来源：证券时报网） 15日，两市股指全线走高，沪指一度再上3700点，创业板指收涨近3%，全A成交额连续3日突破2万亿 元。 截至收盘，沪指涨0.83%报3696.77点，深证成指涨1.6%报11634.67点，创业板指涨2.61%报2534.22点， 北证50指数涨逾3%，沪深北三市合计成交22732亿元。 ...

Market Overview - A-shares opened lower on August 15, but all major indices turned positive by mid-morning, with the ChiNext Index rising over 1% and the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.25% [1] - The A-share market saw a significant increase in trading volume, reaching 2.3 trillion yuan, marking the first occurrence of "double 2 trillion" in nearly a decade [1] - The margin trading balance also surpassed 2 trillion yuan, indicating a shift towards a "slow bull" market phase [1] Sector Performance - The non-bank financial sector experienced a strong rally, with the brokerage sector leading the charge, as evidenced by Longcheng Securities achieving three consecutive trading limits [1][3] - The banking sector faced declines, with major banks like CITIC Bank and Industrial and Commercial Bank of China dropping over 3% [5][6] - The real estate sector also showed strength, with stocks like Qizhou Development and Xinda Real Estate hitting trading limits [3][4] Capital Flow - There was a notable inflow of capital into the non-bank financial sector, with a net inflow of 6.33 billion yuan [2] - The brokerage ETF saw a significant increase, with trading volumes exceeding 700 million yuan, indicating strong market activity [2] Investment Sentiment - Market sentiment appears optimistic, with various institutions expressing a bullish outlook on the ongoing market rally [8][9] - Some private equity firms are adjusting their portfolios, reducing exposure to overvalued stocks while increasing positions in consumer and internet sectors [8] - Analysts suggest that the current market resembles an "enhanced version of 2013," with a focus on small-cap and growth stocks [11]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market has entered a "slow bull" phase, with significant trading volume and a notable increase in stock prices since April 7, 2023, when the Shanghai Composite Index hit its low point [2][8]. Market Performance - On August 14, the A-share market's trading volume reached 2.3 trillion yuan, and the margin financing balance exceeded 2 trillion yuan for the first time in nearly a decade [2]. - As of August 15, major indices showed positive performance, with the ChiNext Index rising over 1%, the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.25%, and the Shenzhen Component Index up 0.81% [1]. Leading Sectors - The non-bank financial sector led the market with a 2.39% increase, attracting a net inflow of 6.33 billion yuan [3]. - The construction materials sector also performed well, with a 1.90% increase and a net inflow of 1.33 billion yuan [3]. - The real estate sector saw significant gains, with stocks like Quzhou Development and Xinda Real Estate rising by 10.04% and 9.92%, respectively [4]. Stock Highlights - The brokerage sector experienced a strong rally, with stocks like Changcheng Securities and Zhongyin Securities seeing increases of over 7% and 4%, respectively [2]. - The ETF for brokerages surged, reaching a new high for the year with a trading volume exceeding 700 million yuan [3]. Banking Sector Performance - The banking sector faced declines, with major banks like CITIC Bank and Industrial and Commercial Bank of China dropping over 3% [5][6]. - The insurance sector also saw losses, with China Pacific Insurance and China Life Insurance both declining by over 1% [5]. Fund Flows - Recent data indicated a significant increase in non-bank deposits, with a rise of 2.14 trillion yuan in July, while household deposits decreased by 1.1 trillion yuan [7]. - Market sentiment is optimistic, with institutions adjusting their portfolios to focus on consumer and internet sectors, while maintaining positions in undervalued stocks [8]. Future Outlook - Some institutions believe the current market rally will continue, although volatility may increase, suggesting a focus on high-growth sectors with strong performance metrics [9]. - Analysts highlight the importance of identifying stocks with high elasticity in a bull market, particularly in technology and sectors with strong earnings support [9].