2026年首个交易日，A股主要股指高开高走，沪指涨超1%重返4000点上方，创业板指涨近3%，科创50 指数大涨超4%。 盘面上看，保险、半导体、医药、有色等板块走强，券商、地产、石油、酿酒等板块上扬，人脑工程概 念爆发，存储芯片、创新药、AI应用概念等活跃。 中信证券认为，2026年最大的预期差来自于外需与内需的平衡，对外"征税"、补贴内需应是大势所趋， 今年是个重要的开端。站在开年，考虑到去年末的资金热度并不算高，人心思涨的环境下开年后市场震 荡向上的概率更高。前期共识性品种"调整后再上车"大概率是机构资金主要的考虑方向，例如有色、海 外算力、半导体自主可控等，当然有些偏游资风格的品种也属于这一类别，比如商业航天、机器人等。 反共识品种是一些配置型增量资金的考虑，典型的方向就是通过内需消费的小仓位增配去捕捉年内的超 预期政策变化，免税、航空等出行服务相关的行业应该是增量布局重点，优质的地产开发商也是考虑对 象。 （文章来源：证券时报网） 截至收盘，沪指涨1.38%报4023.42点，深证成指涨2.24%，创业板指涨2.85%，科创50指数涨4.4%，沪 深北三市合计成交25674亿元。 ...

元旦"微度假"热度高 [Table_Authors] 李林芷(分析师) 国内高频指标跟踪（2026 年第 1 期） 本报告导读： 消费复苏动能较强，但投资、生产仍需政策进一步提振。 投资要点： | | 021-23185646 | | --- | --- | | | lilinzhi2@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880525040087 | | | 邵睿思(研究助理) | | | 010-83939827 | | | shaoruisi@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880125070011 | | | 应镓娴(分析师) | | | 021-23185645 | | | yingjiaxian@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880525040060 | | | 梁中华(分析师) | | | 021-23219820 | | | liangzhonghua@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880525040019 | [Table_Report] 相关报告 金银铜续创新高，人民币汇率破 7 2025.12.28 消费温和改善 2025.12.28 内需有 ...

中观总览：12月，此前持续的行业景气分化格局发生扭转，制造业整体景气水平显著回升，官方制造业PMI重返 50.3%的扩张区间，主要得益于稳增长政策效应持续释放及节前备货活动拉动。然而，电机与化纤橡塑行业面临的 核心矛盾进一步凸显且路径分化：电机行业的主要压力从需求波动切换为剧烈的成本冲击，受国际铜价飙升影响， 行业在12月底至1月初出现罕见的集体涨价潮；而化纤橡塑行业则延续了"供强需弱"的结构性压力，叠加季节性生 产淡季，行业开工率维持低位，产品价格疲软，利润空间持续受到挤压。整体而言，当前产业链的挑战正从普遍 的需求不足，演变为更具结构性的成本重塑与供需再平衡。 化工下游利润承压，地产下游回暖 核心观点 细分产业： 化工：12月PX、PTA价格持续拉涨，聚酯产品因上游原材料上涨叠加下游需求疲软而跟涨乏力，中游纺织制造业 利润被严重挤压。当前中游纺织服装、服饰业已进入生产淡季，减产或成为未来方向之一。12月聚酯行业开工率 持续回落，1月预计将出现超5个点的回落。除淡季上游原材料价格上涨，当前上游企业原材料库存已处于偏高水 平，开工回落与高库存形成叠加效应，形成需求端的实质性拖累，或将压制全产业链利润空间。 宏 ...

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Industry Overview - The focus is on the aviation sector, particularly in the context of the appreciation of the Renminbi (RMB) and its impact on various industries including airports and light industry paper manufacturing [1][3]. Core Insights and Arguments - The appreciation of the RMB is expected to enhance the financial performance of sectors like aviation and light industry paper due to improved cost and debt structures [1][3]. - Historical data indicates that different sectors lead the market during phases of rapid RMB appreciation, with core assets leading in 2017, new energy and military industries in 2020-2021, and economic recovery valuation logic in late 2022 to early 2023 [1][6]. - The current phase of RMB appreciation differs from previous ones, with reduced foreign capital influence and increased domestic pricing power, shifting market focus towards technological transformation rather than mere economic recovery [1][7]. - The aviation sector is highlighted as a key beneficiary, with significant cost components (over 60%) being dollar-denominated, meaning even slight RMB appreciation can lead to substantial profit increases [3][9]. Investment Opportunities - Short-term investment opportunities are identified in the aviation and light industry paper sectors, particularly as companies prepare to release annual reports [1][8]. - The second tier of investment opportunities includes foreign-invested blue-chip stocks such as electric equipment, electronics, and food and beverage sectors, which have shown resilience during past RMB appreciation phases [5]. - The third tier includes large financial and real estate sectors, which have a high proportion of RMB-denominated assets, benefiting from balance sheet improvements during RMB appreciation [5]. Additional Important Insights - The global aircraft manufacturing industry is facing supply chain bottlenecks due to de-globalization, affecting the availability of materials and components [11]. - The performance of Chinese airlines has significantly outpaced the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index, driven by increased international route demand and favorable pricing dynamics [12]. - Airlines like China Southern, China Eastern, Air China, and budget carriers such as Spring Airlines are identified as high-elasticity investment opportunities due to their potential recovery from historical lows [3][12]. - The upcoming delivery of new aircraft orders (e.g., Spring Airlines and Juneyao Airlines) is expected to support fleet updates and future growth [10].

2026：更高的期待？20251230 摘要 市场预期美联储降息次数减少，从三次至五次调整为两到三次，美元指 数年初至今已贬值 10%，若去美元逻辑持续，或将进一步下探，但需关 注欧元、日元等货币政策的影响。 特朗普二次当选及其政策，叠加美国国会中期选举，将对全球地缘政治、 经济和金融产生不确定性影响，投资者需密切关注中美经贸关系及关税 政策变化。 中国经济在不确定性中寻求确定性，出口业务和科技自立自强是发展重 心，财政与货币政策协同配合将持续，但需警惕经济节奏、通胀形态及 政策力度变化带来的风险。 2025 年人民币资产风险偏好提升，10 年期国债收益率上升近 20 个基 点，科创 50、北京 50、创业板指数均有显著收益，人民币升值约 4%，全球主要风险资产普遍实现两位数以上收益。 人民币近期快速升值主要受美元走弱、企业结汇意愿增强及市场情绪催 化影响，未来一年人民币升值大方向不变，但需关注美元走势及央行干 预。 Q&A 对于 2026 年市场的展望有哪些主要考虑因素？ 展望 2026 年，首先需要关注的是美联储的降息预期。尽管市场普遍预计美联 储将继续降息，但降息幅度可能会较今年有所收敛。去年年底和今年 ...

美国经济观察 美国经济：冷暖交织下的"K 型鸿沟" glmszqdatemark 2025 年 12 月 31 日 [Table_Author] | 分析师 | 陶川 | | --- | --- | | 执业证书： S0590525110006 | | | 邮箱： | taochuan@glms.com.cn | | 分析师 | 林彦 | | 执业证书： S0590525110007 | | | 邮箱： | linyan@glms.com.cn | | 研究助理 | 武朔 | | 执业证书： S0590125110064 | | | 邮箱： | wushuo@glms.com.cn | 相关研究 本公司具备证券投资咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明 证券研究报告 1 今年以来的美国经济表现着实让市场"云里雾里"。剔除关税对进出口和库存的扰 动后，前三个季度美国实际 GDP（年化环比增速，4QMA）始终稳定运行在 2% 以上的增长区间，展现出较强韧性。然而，这种超预期的经济增长，却与微观层 面的体感形成鲜明反差：就业市场活跃度持续回落，消费者信心更是节节走低。 一强一弱之间，美国经济呈现出"冷暖交织"、截 ...

报告导读： 中观景气延续分化，受供给受限影响，化工 / 有色等资源品价格出现明显上 涨， AI 产业趋势下，电子产业景气偏强；旅游景气边际改善，内需消费复苏仍待观察。 周期资源品价格上涨，科技硬件景气延续。 上周（ 12.22-12.28 ）中观景气表现分化，值得关注： 1 ）周期行业局部出现供需紧张，基础化工、电新原料 以及工业金属价格大幅上涨，主因供给受限，下游需求则表现较强。 2 ） AI 产业趋势延续，国内电子产业需求仍受到明显拉动，存储价格环比继续上涨， 11 月 PCB 出口增速延续高位。 3 ）服务消费景气边际改善，上海迪士尼拥挤度延续高位，受封关影响，海南旅游价格指数环比提升；年末生猪价格环比企 稳上涨。中央经济工作会议提出"深入实施提振消费专项行动"，展望 2026 ，消费在供给端和需求端的政策空间存在超预期可能。 下游消费：旅游景气延续高位，生猪价格上涨。 1 ）服务消费： 上海迪士尼乐园拥挤度指数环比 -0.2% ，同比 +29.4% ，游乐场拥挤度延续高位 ； 12.15-12.21 海南旅游价格指数环比 +2.5% ，封关带动海南旅游景气环比显著提升。 2 ）地产： 30 大中城市商 ...

Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints - The industry presents a mixed picture with different trends in various sectors, and policies such as the "Two New" policy in 2026 and the automotive digital transformation plan will have an impact on relevant industries [1][2] Summary by Directory Middle - view Event Overview Production Industry - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and other four departments issued the "Implementation Plan for the Digital Transformation of the Automotive Industry". By 2027, the intelligent manufacturing capability maturity level of benchmark vehicle manufacturers will be upgraded by one level, the digital level of component enterprises will be significantly improved, the penetration rate of R & D and design tools will exceed 95%, and the numerical control rate of key processes will exceed 70%. By 2030, the industry will achieve a high - level digital and intelligent development [1] Service Industry - The National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Finance issued the "Notice on Implementing the Policy of Large - scale Equipment Renewal and Consumer Goods Trade - in in 2026", supporting home appliance trade - in, new purchases of digital and smart products, and new purchases of smart home products with corresponding subsidy standards [2] Industry Overview Upstream - In the non - ferrous sector, copper prices continue to rise; in the energy sector, liquefied natural gas prices continue to fall; in the agricultural sector, the prices of pork, cotton, and palm oil rise slightly [3] Middle - stream - In the chemical industry, the operating rates of PTA and PX remain low; in the energy sector, the coal consumption of power plants increases [4] Downstream - In the real estate sector, the sales of commercial housing in first - and second - tier cities continue to pick up; in the service sector, the number of domestic flights increases [5] Key Industry Price Indicators Tracking - Agricultural products such as corn, eggs, palm oil, cotton, and pork show price increases, with the price of pork rising by 2.19% [40] - Non - ferrous metals including copper, zinc, aluminum, and nickel also see price increases, with copper rising by 4.39% [40] - Energy products like WTI crude oil have a slight price increase of 0.12%, while Brent crude oil and liquefied natural gas prices fall, with liquefied natural gas dropping by 5.39% [40] - Chemical products such as PTA have a price increase of 2.49%, while polyethylene and urea prices fall [40] - In the real estate - related sector, the cement price index and building materials comprehensive index decline slightly [40]

Downstream Consumption - The tourism sector shows continued high activity, with Shanghai Disneyland's crowd index averaging 67%, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 29.4% [7] - The Hainan tourism price index increased by 2.5% week-on-week, indicating a significant improvement in tourism activity due to the lifting of restrictions [7] - Real estate sales remain low, with a year-on-year decline of 30.5% in transaction area across 30 major cities, despite recent policy adjustments aimed at stimulating the market [9] Technology & Manufacturing - The electronic industry continues to experience high demand driven by AI infrastructure investments, with DRAM prices for DDR4 and DDR5 increasing by 12.4% and 5.3% respectively [19] - PCB exports in November 2025 rose by 29.5% year-on-year, maintaining a high growth rate [19] - Manufacturing activity remains stable, with slight fluctuations in operating rates across various sectors, while chemical raw material prices have seen significant increases [25][34] Upstream Resources - Coal prices have continued to decline, with the Qinhuangdao port Q5500 coal price dropping by 4.4% week-on-week [39] - Industrial metal prices have accelerated upward, with copper and aluminum prices increasing by 5.9% and 1.6% respectively [41] Logistics and Transportation - There is a weakening demand for freight logistics, with nationwide highway truck traffic and railway freight volume decreasing by 0.5% and 6.1% respectively [51] - Long-distance travel demand has also shown a marginal decline, with international flight operations down by 2.6% week-on-week [46]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report focuses on the continuous price differentiation in the upstream industry and provides an overview of mid - level events, industry status in the upstream, mid - stream, and downstream sectors. Upstream prices show a trend of divergence, with some rising and some falling, while the mid - stream and downstream industries have their own development characteristics such as low - level operation in some mid - stream industries and recovery in some downstream industries. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Mid - level Event Overview - **Production Industry**: The State Administration for Market Regulation has deployed key tasks for 2026, including deepening fair competition governance, breaking administrative monopolies, strengthening anti - monopoly and anti - unfair competition law enforcement, promoting the development quality of business entities, and strengthening the regular supervision of the platform economy [1] - **Service Industry**: The 2026 Tariff Adjustment Plan will be implemented from January 1, 2026, with 935 items of goods subject to import provisional tax rates lower than the most - favored - nation tax rates, and new national sub - items added. Also, regulations on the deduction of advertising and business promotion expenses for certain industries have been announced [2] Industry Overview - **Upstream**: In the chemical industry, PTA prices are rising; in the non - ferrous metals sector, copper prices are rising; in the energy industry, LNG prices are falling [3] - **Mid - stream**: Chemical product start - up rates are at a low level, power plant coal consumption is increasing, and asphalt start - up is in the off - season [4] - **Downstream**: The sales of commercial housing in first, second, and third - tier cities are continuously warming up, and the number of domestic flights is increasing [4] Key Industry Price Index Tracking - **Agriculture**: On December 29, the spot prices of corn, palm oil, cotton, and the average wholesale price of pork increased year - on - year, while the spot price of eggs decreased [37] - **Non - ferrous Metals**: On December 29, the spot prices of copper, zinc, aluminum, and nickel increased year - on - year [37] - **Ferrous Metals**: On December 29, the spot price of线材 increased year - on - year, while the spot prices of rebar and iron ore decreased slightly [37] - **Non - metals**: On December 29, the spot price of natural rubber increased year - on - year, while the spot price of glass and the China Plastic City price index decreased [37] - **Energy**: On December 29, the spot prices of WTI crude oil and Brent crude oil increased slightly year - on - year, while the spot price of liquefied natural gas and coal price decreased [37] - **Chemical Industry**: On December 29, the spot price of PTA increased year - on - year, while the spot price of polyethylene decreased [37] - **Real Estate**: On December 29, the cement price index and the building materials composite index decreased slightly year - on - year, and the concrete price index remained unchanged [37]