Group 1: Report Information - Industry: Cotton [1] - Date: September 18, 2025 [2] - Researchers: Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [3] Group 2: Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Zhengzhou cotton fluctuated and adjusted. The latest 328 - grade cotton price index was 15,310 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The sales basis of 2024/25 Northern Xinjiang machine - picked cotton was CF01 + 1500 and above, and that of 2024/25 Southern Xinjiang Kashgar machine - picked cotton was in the range of CF01 + 1100 - 1250 [7] - The cotton yarn market was average, with the peak season underperforming expectations and weaker than previous years. The downstream mainly made rigid - demand purchases, and spinning mills sold at market prices. The cotton yarn price remained stable with a slow downward trend. The cotton fabric market maintained shipments, and the fabric price was stable [7] - Overseas, the expected Fed rate cut this week and the assessment of further monetary policy easing in the coming months led to a decline in the US dollar index, boosting US cotton. In the domestic market, before the new cotton listing, trading volume was low, and the expected opening price was around 6.2 - 6.5 yuan/kg. The demand side had a slight reduction in finished - product inventory, and the downstream weaving mills' operation rate increased seasonally, with rigid - demand support remaining. Fundamentally, there were limited changes, and Zhengzhou cotton would continue to fluctuate within a range in the short term [8] Group 3: Industry News - As of the week ending September 13, 2025, Brazil's cotton harvest progress was 96.6%, up 9.7 percentage points from the previous week and 1.9% slower than the same period last year. As of September 11, the processing progress was 36%, and new - cotton exports declined in the short term. The quality indicators such as micronaire and strength were lower than last year [9] - As of the week ending September 14, 2025, the good - to - excellent rate of US cotton was 52%, down from 54% the previous week but up from 39% in the same period last year [9] Group 4: Data Overview - The report presents various data charts including the China cotton price index, cotton spot price, cotton futures price, cotton basis change, etc [17][18]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views - After continuous upward movement, high - level hot sectors such as AI have shown divergence recently. With the shrinking market trading volume, short - term indices face adjustment pressure. However, in the long - term, the policy support for the capital market remains unchanged, and the idea of buying on dips is still the main strategy [3]. - In the bond market, considering the slowdown of economic data in August, the expected easing of funds, and the need to pay attention to the stock - bond seesaw effect, the bond market is expected to oscillate and repair in the short - term [5]. - For precious metals, although the Fed's interest - rate meeting was not as dovish as expected, the market's expectation of the Fed's rate cut will rise with the appointment of a new chairman. A long - position approach should be maintained, with a focus on the upward price potential of silver [7]. - In the non - ferrous metals sector, different metals have different trends. For example, copper prices are expected to oscillate, zinc and lead are expected to be strong in the short - term, and nickel is recommended to be bought on dips in the long - term [9][11][13]. - In the black building materials sector, although the black sector is currently under pressure from weak actual demand, with the possible implementation of overseas fiscal and monetary policies and the opening of China's policy space, it may gradually become more cost - effective for long - positions, with the key point around mid - October [28]. - In the energy and chemical sector, the views on different products vary. For example, crude oil is recommended for long - positions, while PVC is recommended for short - positions [41][46]. - In the agricultural products sector, the strategies for different products also differ. For example, for pigs, pay attention to the possibility of a low - level rebound and short - selling after the rebound; for sugar, maintain a bearish view [54][62]. Summaries by Catalog Macro - finance Stock Index - **Message**: From January to August, the national general public budget revenue was 14.8198 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.3%. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology solicited opinions on relevant standards for intelligent connected vehicles. CATL's sodium - new batteries will be supplied in batches next year. Dongshan Precision said the supply of optical chips is tight [2]. - **Basis Ratio of Stock Index Futures**: The basis ratios of IF, IC, IM, and IH for different periods are provided [2]. - **Trading Logic**: After the previous rise, high - level sectors have diverged, and short - term indices face adjustment pressure. In the long - term, the policy support for the capital market remains unchanged [3]. Treasury Bonds - **Market**: On Wednesday, the main contracts of TL, T, TF, and TS all rose [4]. - **Message**: From January to August, the national general public budget revenue was 14.8198 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.3%. The central bank conducted 418.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 114.5 billion yuan [4]. - **Strategy**: Considering the slowdown of economic data in August and the expected easing of funds, the bond market is expected to oscillate and repair in the short - term, but pay attention to the stock - bond seesaw effect [5]. Precious Metals - **Market**: Gold and silver prices declined. The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points, but the statement was not as dovish as expected, and precious metal prices were under short - term pressure [6]. - **Market Outlook**: Powell's statement on monetary policy was neutral. The voting pattern of the interest - rate meeting implies a change in the probability of the new Fed chairman. The market's expectation of the Fed's rate cut will rise with the appointment of a new chairman. A long - position approach should be maintained, with a focus on silver [7]. Non - ferrous Metals Copper - **Market**: After the Fed's interest - rate meeting, copper prices adjusted. LME copper inventory decreased, and the cash/3M spread was at a discount [9]. - **Outlook**: The Fed's policy was less loose than expected, but there are some disturbances in the overseas copper mine industry. In the short - term, copper prices are expected to oscillate [9]. Aluminum - **Market**: After the Fed's interest - rate meeting, aluminum prices declined. LME aluminum inventory remained unchanged, and domestic inventories increased [10]. - **Outlook**: The Fed's statement was cautious, but the downstream is in the traditional consumption season, and aluminum prices are expected to be supported [10]. Zinc - **Market**: Zinc prices showed different trends in the domestic and overseas markets. Zinc concentrate inventories increased, and processing fees were differentiated [11]. - **Outlook**: The zinc market is expected to be strong in the short - term, and if the zinc ingot export window opens, domestic zinc prices may rise [11]. Lead - **Market**: Lead prices rose. Lead concentrate inventories increased slowly, and the TC decreased. The inventory of lead batteries decreased [12]. - **Outlook**: With the improvement of industrial data and market sentiment, lead prices are expected to break through the oscillation range and be strong in the short - term [12]. Nickel - **Market**: Nickel prices oscillated. The cost of Indonesian nickel ore decreased slightly, and the demand for nickel iron was supported [13]. - **Outlook**: Although refined nickel inventories are under pressure, in the long - term, nickel prices are expected to be supported by policies. It is recommended to buy on dips [13]. Tin - **Market**: Tin prices oscillated. The supply of tin ore in Myanmar was slow to recover, and the inventory of tin ingots increased slightly [14][15]. - **Outlook**: With a significant decrease in supply and a marginal improvement in demand, tin prices are expected to be strong and oscillate [15]. Carbonate Lithium - **Market**: The spot index of carbonate lithium increased slightly, and the futures price also rose [16]. - **Outlook**: The fundamental improvement of carbonate lithium has been reflected in the price. Pay attention to industrial information and the impact of the Fed's policy [16]. Alumina - **Market**: The alumina index declined, and the import window opened [17]. - **Outlook**: The alumina market is expected to be in a state of over - capacity in the short - term. It is recommended to wait and see, paying attention to supply - side policies and the Fed's policy [17]. Stainless Steel - **Market**: Stainless steel prices declined, and the inventory decreased [18]. - **Outlook**: Due to the weak demand in the real estate industry, the overall market demand is weak, and the market is in a wait - and - see state [18]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market**: Cast aluminum alloy prices declined slightly, and the inventory increased [19]. - **Outlook**: Although the peak season characteristics are not obvious, the cost is strongly supported, and prices are expected to remain high in the short - term [19]. Black Building Materials Steel - **Market**: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coils showed different trends. The inventory of rebar increased, while the inventory of hot - rolled coils decreased slightly [21][22]. - **Outlook**: The demand for rebar is weak, while the demand for hot - rolled coils is relatively strong. If demand cannot be effectively restored, steel prices may decline [22]. Iron Ore - **Market**: Iron ore prices rose slightly, and the supply and demand situation changed [23][24]. - **Outlook**: In the short - term, iron ore prices are expected to oscillate. Pay attention to the recovery of downstream demand and overseas macro - changes [24]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass**: Prices declined slightly, and the inventory decreased. The supply increased slightly, and the demand was weak. It is recommended to be cautiously bullish [25]. - **Soda Ash**: Prices declined slightly, and the inventory decreased. The supply decreased slightly due to equipment maintenance, and the demand was mainly for rigid needs. It is expected to fluctuate within a narrow range [26]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market**: Manganese silicon and ferrosilicon prices rose. The spot prices were stable [27]. - **Outlook**: Both are expected to oscillate within a range, and it is recommended to wait and see [27]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Industrial Silicon**: Prices rose slightly. The supply increased, and the demand was supported. The inventory remained high. It is recommended to pay attention to industry policies [30][31]. - **Polysilicon**: Prices declined slightly. The supply was close to the same - period high, and the inventory transfer was limited. Pay attention to capacity integration policies [32][33]. Energy and Chemicals Rubber - **Market**: The supply of rubber may be affected by weather, and the demand is in a seasonal off - season. The inventory decreased [35][36]. - **Outlook**: Adopt a long - position approach in the medium - term and wait and see in the short - term [39]. Crude Oil - **Market**: Crude oil and refined oil prices rose. The U.S. EIA data showed changes in inventory [40]. - **Outlook**: Maintain a long - position approach for crude oil, as the fundamentals support the price, and if the geopolitical premium returns, prices may rise [41]. Methanol - **Market**: Methanol futures prices rose slightly, and the spot price declined. The inventory was high, and the demand was expected to improve [42]. - **Outlook**: The fundamentals are expected to improve, and it is recommended to look for long - position opportunities and 1 - 5 positive spreads [42]. Urea - **Market**: Urea futures prices declined, and the spot price was stable. The inventory was rising, and the demand was weak [43]. - **Outlook**: Prices are expected to fluctuate within a range, and it is recommended to look for long - position opportunities [43]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market**: Spot prices rose, and futures prices declined. The BZN spread is expected to repair, and the inventory is decreasing [44][45]. - **Outlook**: It is recommended to buy on dips for the pure benzene US - South Korea spread [44]. PVC - **Market**: PVC prices rose, and the inventory increased. The supply was strong, and the demand was weak [46]. - **Outlook**: It is recommended to short - sell on rallies, but beware of upward fluctuations due to policy sentiment [46]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market**: EG prices rose, and the inventory increased. The supply was high, and the demand was stable [47]. - **Outlook**: It is recommended to short - sell on rallies, but beware of the risk of the weak expectation not being realized [48]. PTA - **Market**: PTA prices rose, and the inventory decreased. The supply was affected by unexpected maintenance, and the demand was stable [49]. - **Outlook**: It is recommended to wait and see, paying attention to the improvement of the terminal and raw - material maintenance [49]. p - Xylene - **Market**: PX prices rose, and the inventory decreased. The load was high, and the downstream PTA load was low [50]. - **Outlook**: It is recommended to wait and see, paying attention to the recovery of the terminal [50]. Polyethylene (PE) - **Market**: PE futures prices rose, and the spot price was stable. The inventory was decreasing, and the demand was expected to increase [51]. - **Outlook**: Prices are expected to oscillate upward [51]. Polypropylene (PP) - **Market**: PP futures prices rose, and the spot price was stable. The supply pressure was high, and the demand was gradually recovering [52]. - **Outlook**: In the short - term, there is no obvious contradiction, and prices are expected to oscillate [52]. Agricultural Products Pigs - **Market**: Pig prices declined, and the supply was expected to be high in September [54]. - **Outlook**: Pay attention to the possibility of a low - level rebound and short - selling after the rebound, and continue the far - month reverse - spread strategy [54]. Eggs - **Market**: Egg prices were mostly stable, and the supply was stable [55]. - **Outlook**: It is recommended to wait and see, and consider short - term long - positions in the far - month contract when the price falls and the position increases [55]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - **Market**: U.S. soybean prices oscillated, and domestic soybean meal prices declined slightly. The inventory was at a high level [56][57]. - **Outlook**: The soybean import cost is expected to be weak. Soybean meal is expected to oscillate within a range, waiting for a driving factor [58]. Oils and Fats - **Market**: Malaysian palm oil export and production data showed changes. Domestic oil prices declined [59]. - **Outlook**: Oils and fats are expected to be strong and oscillate in the medium - term. It is recommended to buy on dips after the price stabilizes [60]. Sugar - **Market**: Sugar futures prices declined, and the spot price was stable. The supply increased, and the demand was weak [61][62]. - **Outlook**: Maintain a bearish view on sugar prices, and pay attention to the Brazilian production [62]. Cotton - **Market**: Cotton futures prices oscillated, and the spot price rose slightly. The downstream operating rate increased, and the inventory was low [63][64]. - **Outlook**: Cotton prices are expected to oscillate in the short - term [64].

行业 棉花 日期 2025 年 9 月 17 日 研究员：余兰兰 021-60635732 yulanlan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0301101 研究员：林贞磊 021-60635740 linzhenlei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3055047 研究员：王海峰 021-60635727 wanghaifeng@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0230741 研究员：洪辰亮 021-60635572 hongchenliang@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3076808 研究员：刘悠然 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 农产品研究团队 、 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 一、行情回顾与操作建议 | 表1：行情回顾 | | --- | 数据来源：Wind，建信期货研究发展部 郑棉震荡调整。现货方面，最新棉花价格指数 328 级在 15300 元/吨，较上一 交易日涨 51 元/吨。2024 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Macro-finance: Bullish in the medium to long term, recommend buying on dips for stock indices; hold a wait-and-see attitude for treasury bonds [1][5] - Black building materials: Range trading for coking coal and rebar; recommend buying on dips for glass [1][7][8] - Non-ferrous metals: Wait-and-see or hold long positions on dips for copper, with short-term trading; recommend buying on dips after a pullback for aluminum; recommend waiting or shorting on rallies for nickel; range trading for tin, gold, and silver [1][10][16][17] - Energy and chemicals: PVC, caustic soda, styrene, urea, and methanol are expected to trade in a range; rubber is expected to trade with a bullish bias; polyolefins are expected to trade in a wide range; recommend an arbitrage strategy of shorting the 01 contract and going long on the 05 contract for soda ash [1][20][23][31][33] - Cotton textile industry chain: Cotton and cotton yarn, PTA are expected to trade in a range; apples are expected to trade with a bullish bias; jujubes are expected to trade with a bearish bias [1][37][39] - Agricultural and livestock products: Recommend shorting on rallies for hogs and eggs; corn is expected to trade in a range; soybean meal is expected to trade in a range; oils are expected to trade with a bullish bias [1][41][43][47] Core Views - The A-share market is in a structural bull market, with the logic of the liquidity bull market remaining unchanged. The market has formed a "bull market mindset," and one should not easily use the experience and rules of a sideways or bear market as signals [5] - The bond market is expected to remain weak in the short term, and any rebound should be treated as a short-term rally [5] - The glass market is expected to strengthen in the short term, supported by the expected reduction in supply and the arrival of the peak season [9] - The copper market is expected to remain strong in the short term, supported by the weakening US dollar and the expected improvement in domestic demand [10] - The aluminum market is expected to remain stable in the short term, with a slight upward trend, supported by the expected reduction in supply and the improvement in demand [12] - The nickel market is expected to remain volatile in the short term, with a downward trend in the medium to long term, due to the expected increase in supply and the weakening demand [16] - The tin market is expected to remain stable in the short term, with a slight upward trend, supported by the expected reduction in supply and the improvement in demand [16] - The silver and gold markets are expected to remain volatile in the short term, with a slight upward trend, supported by the expected increase in the number of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [17][18] - The PVC market is expected to remain weak in the short term, with a downward trend, due to the high inventory and the weakening demand [20] - The caustic soda market is expected to remain stable in the short term, with a slight upward trend, supported by the expected increase in demand and the reduction in supply [23] - The styrene market is expected to remain volatile in the short term, with a downward trend, due to the weakening demand and the high inventory [25] - The rubber market is expected to remain stable in the short term, with a slight upward trend, supported by the expected reduction in supply and the improvement in demand [27] - The urea market is expected to remain weak in the short term, with a downward trend, due to the high inventory and the weakening demand [28] - The methanol market is expected to remain weak in the short term, with a downward trend, due to the high inventory and the weakening demand [31] - The polyolefin market is expected to remain stable in the short term, with a slight upward trend, supported by the expected improvement in demand and the reduction in supply [33] - The soda ash market is expected to remain volatile in the short term, with a downward trend, due to the high inventory and the weakening demand [36] - The cotton and cotton yarn market is expected to remain stable in the short term, with a slight upward trend, supported by the expected improvement in demand and the reduction in supply [37] - The PTA market is expected to remain weak in the short term, with a downward trend, due to the high inventory and the weakening demand [38] - The apple market is expected to remain stable in the short term, with a slight upward trend, supported by the expected improvement in demand and the reduction in supply [39] - The jujube market is expected to remain weak in the short term, with a downward trend, due to the high inventory and the weakening demand [40] - The hog market is expected to remain weak in the short term, with a downward trend, due to the high inventory and the weakening demand [41] - The egg market is expected to remain stable in the short term, with a slight upward trend, supported by the expected improvement in demand and the reduction in supply [42] - The corn market is expected to remain stable in the short term, with a slight downward trend, due to the high inventory and the weakening demand [43] - The soybean meal market is expected to remain stable in the short term, with a slight upward trend, supported by the expected improvement in demand and the reduction in supply [46] - The oil market is expected to remain strong in the short term, with a slight upward trend, supported by the expected improvement in demand and the reduction in supply [47] Summary by Category Macro-finance - Stock indices: The A-share market is in a structural bull market, with the logic of the liquidity bull market remaining unchanged. The market has formed a "bull market mindset," and one should not easily use the experience and rules of a sideways or bear market as signals. The market is expected to remain volatile in the short term, with a slight upward trend [5] - Treasury bonds: The bond market is expected to remain weak in the short term, and any rebound should be treated as a short-term rally. The market is expected to remain volatile in the short term, with a slight downward trend [5] Black building materials - Coking coal: The coking coal market is expected to remain stable in the short term, with a slight upward trend, supported by the expected reduction in supply and the improvement in demand [7] - Rebar: The rebar market is expected to remain stable in the short term, with a slight upward trend, supported by the expected improvement in demand and the reduction in supply. The market is expected to remain volatile in the short term, with a slight upward trend [7] - Glass: The glass market is expected to strengthen in the short term, supported by the expected reduction in supply and the arrival of the peak season. The market is expected to remain volatile in the short term, with a slight upward trend [9] Non-ferrous metals - Copper: The copper market is expected to remain strong in the short term, supported by the weakening US dollar and the expected improvement in domestic demand. The market is expected to remain volatile in the short term, with a slight upward trend [10] - Aluminum: The aluminum market is expected to remain stable in the short term, with a slight upward trend, supported by the expected reduction in supply and the improvement in demand. The market is expected to remain volatile in the short term, with a slight upward trend [12] - Nickel: The nickel market is expected to remain volatile in the short term, with a downward trend in the medium to long term, due to the expected increase in supply and the weakening demand. The market is expected to remain volatile in the short term, with a slight downward trend [16] - Tin: The tin market is expected to remain stable in the short term, with a slight upward trend, supported by the expected reduction in supply and the improvement in demand. The market is expected to remain volatile in the short term, with a slight upward trend [16] - Silver and gold: The silver and gold markets are expected to remain volatile in the short term, with a slight upward trend, supported by the expected increase in the number of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. The market is expected to remain volatile in the short term, with a slight upward trend [17][18] Energy and chemicals - PVC: The PVC market is expected to remain weak in the short term, with a downward trend, due to the high inventory and the weakening demand. The market is expected to remain volatile in the short term, with a slight downward trend [20] - Caustic soda: The caustic soda market is expected to remain stable in the short term, with a slight upward trend, supported by the expected increase in demand and the reduction in supply. The market is expected to remain volatile in the short term, with a slight upward trend [23] - Styrene: The styrene market is expected to remain volatile in the short term, with a downward trend, due to the weakening demand and the high inventory. The market is expected to remain volatile in the short term, with a slight downward trend [25] - Rubber: The rubber market is expected to remain stable in the short term, with a slight upward trend, supported by the expected reduction in supply and the improvement in demand. The market is expected to remain volatile in the short term, with a slight upward trend [27] - Urea: The urea market is expected to remain weak in the short term, with a downward trend, due to the high inventory and the weakening demand. The market is expected to remain volatile in the short term, with a slight downward trend [28] - Methanol: The methanol market is expected to remain weak in the short term, with a downward trend, due to the high inventory and the weakening demand. The market is expected to remain volatile in the short term, with a slight downward trend [31] - Polyolefins: The polyolefin market is expected to remain stable in the short term, with a slight upward trend, supported by the expected improvement in demand and the reduction in supply. The market is expected to remain volatile in the short term, with a slight upward trend [33] - Soda ash: The soda ash market is expected to remain volatile in the short term, with a downward trend, due to the high inventory and the weakening demand. The market is expected to remain volatile in the short term, with a slight downward trend [36] Cotton textile industry chain - Cotton and cotton yarn: The cotton and cotton yarn market is expected to remain stable in the short term, with a slight upward trend, supported by the expected improvement in demand and the reduction in supply. The market is expected to remain volatile in the short term, with a slight upward trend [37] - PTA: The PTA market is expected to remain weak in the short term, with a downward trend, due to the high inventory and the weakening demand. The market is expected to remain volatile in the short term, with a slight downward trend [38] - Apples: The apple market is expected to remain stable in the short term, with a slight upward trend, supported by the expected improvement in demand and the reduction in supply. The market is expected to remain volatile in the short term, with a slight upward trend [39] - Jujubes: The jujube market is expected to remain weak in the short term, with a downward trend, due to the high inventory and the weakening demand. The market is expected to remain volatile in the short term, with a slight downward trend [40] Agricultural and livestock products - Hogs: The hog market is expected to remain weak in the short term, with a downward trend, due to the high inventory and the weakening demand. The market is expected to remain volatile in the short term, with a slight downward trend [41] - Eggs: The egg market is expected to remain stable in the short term, with a slight upward trend, supported by the expected improvement in demand and the reduction in supply. The market is expected to remain volatile in the short term, with a slight upward trend [42] - Corn: The corn market is expected to remain stable in the short term, with a slight downward trend, due to the high inventory and the weakening demand. The market is expected to remain volatile in the short term, with a slight downward trend [43] - Soybean meal: The soybean meal market is expected to remain stable in the short term, with a slight upward trend, supported by the expected improvement in demand and the reduction in supply. The market is expected to remain volatile in the short term, with a slight upward trend [46] - Oils: The oil market is expected to remain strong in the short term, with a slight upward trend, supported by the expected improvement in demand and the reduction in supply. The market is expected to remain volatile in the short term, with a slight upward trend [47]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information regarding industry investment ratings is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports 2.1 Fats and Oils Industry - Palm oil: Malaysian crude palm oil futures may gradually rebound and reach 4,500 ringgit, and then start an upward trend. Domestic palm oil futures will remain range - bound and may follow the Malaysian trend to rise later, with a view of near - term weakness and long - term strength [1]. - Soybean oil: Analysts expect the NOPA member's soybean oil inventory in August 2025 to drop by 5.8% compared to July. In China, downstream consumption has increased, but overall demand is down year - on - year, and soybean supply is sufficient, resulting in a situation of both long and short factors. Currently, soybean oil supply is abundant, and the basis price fluctuates narrowly [1]. 2.2 Corn and Corn Starch Industry - In the short term, the corn market has a loose supply - demand situation, and the futures price will fluctuate weakly. In the medium term, it will remain weak, and investors are advised to be cautious about short - selling [2]. 2.3 Sugar Industry - ICE raw sugar prices are expected to maintain a bottom - oscillating pattern between 15 - 17 cents per pound. Domestic sugar futures may stabilize around 5,500 due to the raw sugar rebound, but the rebound space is limited, and a strategy of short - selling on rallies is recommended [6]. 2.4 Cotton Industry - In the short term, domestic cotton prices may oscillate within a range, and after the new cotton is listed, prices will face pressure [7]. 2.5 Egg Industry - Egg prices may rise to the annual high due to increased demand from traders, but the high inventory and cold - storage egg release may limit the increase. After traders finish restocking next week, egg prices in some areas may decline slightly [9]. 2.6 Meal Industry - The supply - weak demand pattern of US soybeans continues to suppress the price. Brazilian premiums are strong, providing cost support for the domestic market. In China, concerns about future supply are alleviated, and the soybean meal inventory of oil mills has returned to a high level. The cost support for domestic meals is strong, and the 01 contract is expected to operate in the range of 3,050 - 3,150 [11]. 2.7 Pig Industry - The spot price of pigs is under pressure due to increased slaughter, but the decline space is limited. Demand is slowly recovering, but it is uncertain whether it can absorb the supply. After a short - term rebound, there may be further downside potential, and both futures and spot prices are expected to continue to bottom - out [13][14]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Fats and Oils Industry 3.1.1 Price Changes - Soybean oil: The spot price in Jiangsu remained unchanged at 8,610 yuan/ton; the futures price of Y2601 increased by 28 yuan to 8,076 yuan/ton, with a 0.72% increase; the basis of Y2601 decreased by 28 yuan to 534 yuan/ton, a 9.80% decline [1]. - Palm oil: The spot price in Guangdong remained at 9,320 yuan/ton; the futures price of P2601 increased by 112 yuan to 9,174 yuan/ton, a 1.24% increase; the basis of P2601 decreased by 112 yuan to 146 yuan/ton, a 43.41% decline [1]. - Rapeseed oil: The spot price in Jiangsu decreased by 100 yuan to 9,940 yuan/ton; the futures price of Ol601 increased by 15 yuan to 9,511 yuan/ton, a 0.16% increase; the basis of Ol601 decreased by 115 yuan to 429 yuan/ton, a 21.14% decline [1]. 3.1.2 Spread Changes - Soybean oil inter - delivery spread 01 - 05 decreased by 4 yuan to 300 yuan/ton, a 1.32% decline; palm oil inter - delivery spread 01 - 05 increased by 14 yuan to 248 yuan/ton, a 5.98% increase; rapeseed oil inter - delivery spread 01 - 05 increased by 28 yuan to 380 yuan/ton, a 7.76% increase [1]. 3.2 Corn and Corn Starch Industry 3.2.1 Corn - The futures price of corn 2511 decreased by 30 yuan to 2,167 yuan/ton, a 1.37% decline; the basis increased by 30 yuan to 143 yuan/ton, a 26.55% increase; the 11 - 3 spread decreased by 19 yuan to - 5 yuan/ton, a 135.71% decline [2]. 3.2.2 Corn Starch - The futures price of corn starch 2511 decreased by 31 yuan to 2,443 yuan/ton, a 1.25% decline; the basis increased by 31 yuan to 117 yuan/ton, a 36.05% increase; the 11 - 3 spread decreased by 19 yuan to - 42 yuan/ton, an 82.61% decline [2]. 3.3 Sugar Industry 3.3.1 Futures Market - The futures price of sugar 2601 increased by 9 yuan to 5,517 yuan/ton, a 0.16% increase; the 1 - 5 spread remained unchanged at 23 yuan/ton; the main contract's open interest decreased by 2,891 lots to 381,607 lots, a 0.75% decline; the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 274 lots to 11,325 lots, a 2.36% decline [6]. 3.3.2 Spot Market - The spot price in Nanning and Kunming remained unchanged. The Nanning basis decreased by 9 yuan to 364 yuan/ton, a 2.41% decline; the Kunming basis decreased by 9 yuan to 329 yuan/ton, a 2.66% decline [6]. 3.3.3 Industry Situation - National sugar production increased by 119.89 million tons to 1,116.21 million tons, a 12.03% increase; sales increased by 114 million tons to 1,000 million tons, a 12.87% increase; the national sales ratio increased by 0.66 percentage points to 89.60%; the industrial inventory increased by 5.78 million tons to 116 million tons, a 5.24% increase [6]. 3.4 Cotton Industry 3.4.1 Futures Market - The futures price of cotton 2605 increased by 30 yuan to 13,850 yuan/ton, a 0.22% increase; the futures price of cotton 2601 increased by 22 yuan to 13,882 yuan/ton, a 0.18% increase; the 5 - 1 spread increased by 5 yuan to - 35 yuan/ton; the main contract's open interest decreased by 8,077 lots to 498,295 lots, a 1.60% decline; the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 118 lots to 4,899 lots, a 2.35% decline [7]. 3.4.2 Spot Market - The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B decreased by 15 yuan to 15,167 yuan/ton; the CC Index: 3128B increased by 1 yuan to 15,249 yuan/ton; the FC Index:M: 1% increased by 17 yuan to 13,388 yuan/ton [7]. 3.4.3 Industry Situation - Commercial inventory decreased by 33.85 million tons to 148.17 million tons, an 18.6% decline; industrial inventory decreased by 3.19 million tons to 89.23 million tons, a 3.5% decline; imports increased by 2 million tons to 5 million tons, a 66.7% increase [7]. 3.5 Egg Industry - The futures price of the egg 11 - contract increased by 103 yuan to 3,143 yuan per 500 kg, a 3.39% increase; the futures price of the egg 10 - contract increased by 103 yuan to 3,126 yuan per 500 kg, a 3.41% increase; the basis increased by 19 yuan to 515 yuan per 500 kg, a 3.81% increase [9]. 3.6 Meal Industry 3.6.1 Soybean Meal - The spot price of Jiangsu soybean meal decreased by 20 yuan to 3,030 yuan/ton, a 0.66% decline; the futures price of M2601 decreased by 37 yuan to 3,042 yuan/ton, a 1.20% decline; the basis increased by 17 yuan to - 12 yuan/ton, a 58.62% increase [11]. 3.6.2 Rapeseed Meal - The spot price of Jiangsu rapeseed meal decreased by 50 yuan to 2,600 yuan/ton, a 1.89% decline; the futures price of RM2601 decreased by 27 yuan to 2,504 yuan/ton, a 1.07% decline; the basis increased by 23 yuan to 96 yuan/ton, a 31.94% increase [11]. 3.7 Pig Industry 3.7.1 Futures Market - The futures price of the main pig contract increased by 20 yuan to 13,275 yuan/ton, a 0.15% increase; the 11 - 1 spread decreased by 35 yuan to - 470 yuan/ton, an 8.05% decline; the main contract's open interest increased by 2,009 lots to 81,062 lots, a 2.54% increase [13]. 3.7.2 Spot Market - The spot price in Henan decreased by 150 yuan to 13,300 yuan/ton; in Shandong, it decreased by 250 yuan to 13,300 yuan/ton; in Sichuan, it decreased by 300 yuan to 13,050 yuan/ton; in Liaoning, it decreased by 200 yuan to 12,900 yuan/ton [13].

Report Overview - Report Date: September 16, 2025 [2] - Report Industry: Cotton [1] - Researchers: Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [3] 1. Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View - Zhengzhou cotton is in a range - bound adjustment in the short term. The short - term macro influence is strengthening. The overseas market is oscillating weakly, while the domestic market has a slight improvement in demand and some support from rigid demand, but it is also affected by factors such as new cotton picking and the wait - and - see attitude of ginners [7][8] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Review**: Zhengzhou cotton oscillated and adjusted. The spot price of 328 - grade cotton was 15,249 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The sales basis of cotton in different regions was reported. The cotton yarn market was generally weak, the cotton cloth market demand was weak, and the home textile market had increased sales but poor order continuity [7] - **Macro and Overseas Market**: Sino - US economic and trade talks were held in Spain, and the Fed will announce its interest rate decision this week. The USDA September supply - demand report was slightly bearish. The weekly export data of US cotton weakened, and the CFTC fund net long position remained low, with the outer market oscillating weakly [8] - **Domestic Market**: Some areas have started manual picking, and mechanical picking will start next week. As of September 11, the national new cotton picking progress was 0.3%, with a slight year - on - year increase. Ginners are waiting for price guidance. The demand side has a slight destocking of finished products, and the downstream weaving mills' operation rate has a seasonal increase, with rigid demand support [8] 3.2 Industry News - In August 2025, China's clothing, footwear, and knitted textile revenue was 104.5 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.1%. From January to August 2025, the cumulative revenue was 940 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 2.9% - As of September 11, the inventory of ICE's deliverable No. 2 cotton futures contract remained at 15,474 bales. As of September 9, 2025, the net long position ratio of ICE cotton futures funds was - 27.05%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.49 percentage points [9] 3.3 Data Overview - The report presents various data charts, including China's cotton price index, cotton spot and futures prices, basis changes, spreads, cotton commercial and industrial inventories, and exchange rate data [16][20][26]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - In September, the direction of the second - half monetary policy is crucial for the equity market. A - shares may enter a high - level shock pattern after a large increase, and the risk has been largely released [2]. - The 10 - year Treasury bond interest rate has strong gaming power around 1.8%, and an incremental drive is needed to choose a direction. The bond market shows a differentiated trend with the long - end being weak and the short - end being strong [2]. - The U.S. employment market continues to weaken, the ECB keeps policy unchanged, and gold shows a sideways consolidation. Silver is in the $40 - 42 range for short - term trading [2]. - The shipping index (European line) is in a weak shock, and a 12 - 10 spread arbitrage can be considered [2]. - Steel prices are suppressed by factors such as falling apparent demand and coking coal resumption. Iron ore prices are strong, while coking coal and coke prices are weak [2]. - The U.S. core CPI meets expectations, and the expectation of interest rate cuts heats up again. The prices of base metals such as copper, aluminum, and zinc are affected by different factors [2]. - The oil market is worried about marginal supply increments, dragging oil prices down. The chemical products market has different supply - demand situations and price trends [2]. - The agricultural products market is affected by factors such as production expectations and supply - demand contradictions, with different price trends for different varieties [2]. - Special commodities like soda ash, glass, and rubber have different market performances and trading suggestions [2]. - In the new energy sector, polysilicon has a rising price due to increasing production cut expectations, and lithium carbonate maintains a tight balance [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Financial - **Stock Index**: After a large increase, A - shares may enter a high - level shock. Sell near - month put options at support levels to collect premiums [2]. - **Treasury Bond**: The 10 - year Treasury bond interest rate is at a critical point. Adopt a wait - and - see strategy and focus on changes in the capital market, equity market, and fundamentals in the short term [2]. - **Precious Metals**: For gold, buy cautiously at low prices or sell out - of - the - money options. For silver, conduct short - term band trading in the $40 - 42 range and sell out - of - the - money options at high volatility [2]. Black - **Steel**: Steel prices are suppressed. Adopt a wait - and - see strategy [2]. - **Iron Ore**: Buy iron ore 2601 contracts at low prices in the range of 780 - 830 and consider an iron ore - coking coal long - short strategy [2]. - **Coking Coal**: Sell coking coal 2601 contracts at high prices in the range of 1070 - 1170, and the iron ore - coking coal long - short strategy is favorable [2]. - **Coke**: Sell coke 2601 contracts at high prices in the range of 1550 - 1650, and the iron ore - coke long - short strategy is favorable [2]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The futures price is close to the mainstream cost range, and the short - term downward space is limited. The main contract reference range is 79500 - 81500 [2]. - **Aluminum and Related Alloys**: Aluminum prices are affected by macro - factors and cost support, with different reference ranges for different contracts [2]. - **Zinc**: The expectation of interest rate cuts improves, boosting zinc prices. The main contract reference range is 21500 - 23000 [2]. - **Tin**: The fundamentals remain strong, and the tin price is in a high - level shock. The operating range is 285000 - 265000 [2]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Concerns about marginal supply increments drag oil prices down. Adopt a short - side strategy and pay attention to support levels [2]. - **Urea**: High short - term supply pressure drags down the price. Adopt a wait - and - see strategy and pay attention to the support level of 1630 - 1650 yuan/ton [2]. - **PX and PTA**: The supply - demand expectations in September are different, and the prices are in a shock range. For PTA, consider a TA1 - 5 rolling reverse spread strategy [2]. - **Other Chemical Products**: Each chemical product has different supply - demand situations and trading suggestions, such as short - fiber, bottle - grade polyester, ethylene glycol, etc. [2] Agricultural Products - **Grains and Oils**: Different grains and oils are affected by factors such as production expectations and supply - demand contradictions, with different price trends and trading suggestions [2]. - **Sugar and Cotton**: Sugar prices are affected by overseas supply prospects, and cotton has low old - crop inventories, with different trading suggestions [2]. - **Livestock and Poultry Products**: The livestock and poultry products market is affected by factors such as supply - demand contradictions and sales rhythms, with different price trends [2]. Special Commodities - **Soda Ash**: The market lacks a main trading logic and is in a narrow - range shock. Adopt a short - selling strategy on rebounds [2]. - **Glass**: The market is affected by production lines and spot market sentiment. Adopt a wait - and - see strategy [2]. - **Rubber**: The macro - sentiment fades, and rubber prices are in a shock - down trend. Adopt a wait - and - see strategy [2]. New Energy - **Polysilicon**: Due to increasing production cut expectations, the price is rising. Adopt a wait - and - see strategy [2]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The market maintains a tight balance. Adopt a wait - and - see strategy, and the main contract reference range is 70000 - 72000 yuan [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report notes that most commodity futures rose, and small - and mid - cap stock index futures had good gains. In the overseas market, the US labor market shows a clear slowdown trend, and the weak non - farm data increases the probability of a September interest rate cut. In the domestic market, the PPI is expected to see a slight increase in the central value, while the CPI may be slightly lower than the first - half level. Short - term domestic assets present mainly structural opportunities, with a higher probability of incremental policies in the fourth quarter. Overseas, the situation is generally favorable for gold. Long - term US fundamentals are fair, and a weak US dollar pattern continues [6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Performance - **Stock Index Futures**: The CSI 300 futures closed at 4562, up 2.92% daily, 2.37% weekly, 1.24% monthly, 17.40% quarterly, and 16.35% year - to - date. The SSE 50 futures closed at 2990.2, up 1.78% daily, 1.68% weekly, 0.34% monthly, 11.20% quarterly, and 11.66% year - to - date. The CSI 500 futures closed at 7124.6, up 3.81% daily, 3.28% weekly, 1.83% monthly, 21.52% quarterly, and 25.11% year - to - date. The CSI 1000 futures closed at 7387.8, up 3.31% daily, 2.24% weekly, 0.29% monthly, 20.15% quarterly, and 26.32% year - to - date [3]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The 2 - year Treasury bond futures closed at 102.41, up 0.06% daily, 0.02% weekly, - 0.01% monthly, - 0.22% quarterly, and - 0.55% year - to - date. The 5 - year Treasury bond futures closed at 105.59, up 0.16% daily, 0.00% weekly, 0.07% monthly, - 0.63% quarterly, and - 0.89% year - to - date. The 10 - year Treasury bond futures closed at 107.58, up 0.08% daily, - 0.34% weekly, - 0.21% monthly, - 1.24% quarterly, and - 1.23% year - to - date. The 30 - year Treasury bond futures closed at 114.74, down 0.02% daily, - 1.38% weekly, - 1.55% monthly, - 4.61% quarterly, and - 3.44% year - to - date [3]. - **Foreign Exchange**: The US dollar index was at 97.8433, unchanged daily, up 0.11% weekly, unchanged monthly, up 1.11% quarterly, and down 9.81% year - to - date. The euro - US dollar exchange rate was 1.1695, with 0 pips change daily, - 24 pips weekly, 9 pips monthly, - 93 pips quarterly, and 1342 pips year - to - date. The US dollar - yen exchange rate was 147.46, with 0 pips change daily, up 0.03% weekly, up 0.28% monthly, up 2.40% quarterly, and down 6.20% year - to - date [3]. - **Overseas Commodities**: NYMEX WTI crude oil was at $63.75, up 1.56% daily, 2.87% weekly, - 0.41% monthly, - 1.88% quarterly, and - 11.30% year - to - date. ICE Brent crude oil was at $67.6, up 1.61% daily, 2.94% weekly, 0.21% monthly, 1.46% quarterly, and - 9.66% year - to - date. COMEX gold was at $3680.4, up 0.45% daily, 1.12% weekly, 4.67% monthly, 11.02% quarterly, and 39.45% year - to - date [3]. 3.2 Macro Situation - **Overseas Macro**: The US released August non - farm data, with only 22,000 new jobs, lower than the previous value and expectations. The labor market's downward risk has increased, and wage growth has slowed. The number of initial and continued unemployment claims shows that the labor market slowdown is becoming more obvious [6]. - **Domestic Macro**: In August, the PPI rebounded from - 3.6% to - 2.9% year - on - year, while the CPI dropped from 0% to - 0.4% year - on - year. The tail - wagging effect had a large impact, and food prices dragged down the CPI. The PPI's month - on - month rebound to 0 and the core CPI's rise to 0.9% indicate that domestic policies are starting to take effect. The PPI central value is expected to rise slightly, and the CPI may be slightly lower than the first - half level [6]. 3.3 Asset Views - **Short - term**: Domestic assets mainly present structural opportunities. The market sentiment has cooled down after important domestic events this week. In the overseas market, the weak US non - farm data increases the probability of a September interest rate cut, which is favorable for gold. - **Long - term**: The US fundamentals are fair, and interest rate cuts are expected to boost the fundamentals. The weak US dollar pattern continues, and investors should be vigilant about volatility spikes and focus on non - US dollar assets [6]. 3.4 Viewpoint Highlights - **Financial Sector**: Stock index futures should adopt a dumbbell structure to deal with market differences; stock index options should continue the hedging and defensive strategy; the stock - bond seesaw may continue in the short term for Treasury bond futures. All are expected to be in a volatile state [7]. - **Precious Metals**: Driven by dovish expectations, the prices of gold and silver are expected to rise in a volatile manner, as the probability of a September interest rate cut in the US increases, and the risk of the Fed's loss of independence expands [7]. - **Shipping Sector**: For the container shipping to Europe route, attention should be paid to the game between peak - season expectations and price - increase implementation. Steel and iron ore are expected to be volatile, with the impact of production restrictions on steel weakening and iron ore showing an unexpected decline in molten iron production and a slight increase in port inventories [7]. - **Black Building Materials**: Despite the "anti - involution" impact, the prices of varieties in this sector are still supported during the peak season. However, most varieties are expected to be in a volatile state, such as coke starting the first - round price cut after the end of military parade - related production restrictions, and the supply of coking coal significantly decreasing [7]. - **Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials**: Affected by the better - than - expected July China's import and export data, non - ferrous metals were initially boosted. However, most varieties are expected to be volatile, with some facing downward pressure, such as copper due to the rising risk of overseas recession [7]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: The supply - demand situation of crude oil has weakened significantly, and coking coal's decline has dragged down the chemical industry. Most varieties in this sector are expected to be volatile, with some facing downward pressure, such as PP due to the increasing pressure of new production capacity [9]. - **Agricultural Sector**: The agricultural market is in a narrow - range volatile state, waiting for the results of field inspections. Most agricultural products are expected to be volatile, such as livestock products facing a supply - demand imbalance and rubber facing pressure from previous highs [9].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - In September, the direction of the second - half monetary policy is crucial for the equity market. After A - shares have accumulated significant gains, they may enter a high - level shock pattern, and the risk has been largely released [2]. - The 10 - year Treasury bond interest rate has strong gaming power around 1.8%, and an incremental driver is needed to choose a direction. The long - end of Treasury bonds is weak while the short - end is strong [2]. - The U.S. employment market continues to weaken, the ECB keeps policy unchanged, and gold shows a sideways consolidation [2]. - The container shipping index (European line) main contract is weakly volatile [2]. - Steel prices are suppressed by factors such as declining apparent demand and coking coal复产 [2]. - The U.S. core CPI meets expectations, and the expectation of interest rate cuts has heated up again [2]. - There is a high supply pressure in the short - term for some energy and chemical products, and the market needs to pay attention to industrial demand rhythm [2]. - For agricultural products, there are different supply - demand situations, such as the abundant supply expectation for sugar and the low inventory of old - crop cotton [2]. 3. Summary by Categories Financial - **Stock Index**: The stock index has a volume - increasing rise with the resonance of technology and finance. It is recommended to sell near - month put options at the support level to collect premiums [2]. - **Treasury Bond**: Uncertain about the direction, investors are advised to wait and see in the short - term, and pay attention to the capital market, equity market, and fundamentals [2]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold should be bought cautiously at low prices or sell out - of - the - money gold options. Silver should be traded in the range of 40 - 42 dollars and sell out - of - the money options at high volatility [2]. - **Container Shipping Index (European Line)**: Consider the 12 - 10 spread arbitrage as the main contract is weakly volatile [2]. Black - **Steel**: It is recommended to wait and see due to factors suppressing steel prices [2]. - **Iron Ore**: Buy the iron ore 2601 contract at low prices in the range of 780 - 830 and go long on iron ore and short on coking coal [2]. - **Coking Coal**: Short the coking coal 2601 contract at high prices in the range of 1070 - 1170 [2]. - **Coke**: Short the coke 2601 contract at high prices in the range of 1550 - 1650 [2]. Energy and Chemical - **Crude Oil**: Adopt a short - side thinking, with support levels for WTI at [61, 62], Brent at [64, 65], and SC at [465, 475] [2]. - **Urea**: Wait and see as the short - term high - supply pressure drags down the market [2]. - **PX**: Treat the short - term oscillation in the range of 6600 - 6900 [2]. - **PTA**: Oscillate in the range of 4600 - 4800 in the short - term and conduct TA1 - 5 rolling reverse arbitrage [2]. - **Short - fiber**: Follow the raw materials, with the processing fee oscillating in the range of 800 - 1100 [2]. - **Bottle Chip**: The supply and demand may both decline in September, and the processing fee fluctuates in the range of 350 - 500 yuan/ton [2]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Look for EG1 - 5 reverse arbitrage opportunities [2]. - **Caustic Soda**: Wait and see [2]. - **PVC**: Hold short positions [2]. - **Pure Benzene**: Follow styrene and oil prices in the short - term [2]. - **Styrene**: Do low - buying operations on EB10 and expand the EB11 - BZ11 spread at a low level [2]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The price fluctuates in the range of 11400 - 12500 [2]. - **LLDPE**: Oscillate in the short - term [2]. - **PP**: Stop profit on short positions at 6950 - 7000 [2]. - **Methanol**: Conduct range operations in the range of 2350 - 2550 [2]. Agricultural - **Soybean Meal**: Operate in the range of 3050 - 3150 for the 01 contract [2]. - **Hog**: The market has limited supply - demand contradictions, and pay attention to the subsequent slaughter rhythm [2]. - **Corn**: Short at high prices [2]. - **Oil**: The short - term P main contract may test the 9000 support [2]. - **Sugar**: Pay attention to the support at around 5500 [2]. - **Cotton**: Wait and see on a single - side basis [2]. - **Egg**: Control the position of previous short positions as the market rebounds [2]. - **Apple**: The main contract runs around 8100 [2]. - **Jujube**: The main contract fluctuates around 11000 [2]. Special Commodities - **Soda Ash**: Short on rebounds [2]. - **Glass**: Wait and see and pay attention to the spot market sentiment during the peak season [2]. - **Rubber**: Wait and see [2]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The price may fluctuate in the range of 8000 - 9500 yuan/ton, and pay attention to the silicon industry conference [2]. New Energy - **Polysilicon**: Wait and see as the production cut expectation rises and the price increases [2]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Wait and see mainly, with the main contract running around 7 - 7.2 million [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The stock index has been the standout performer, while commodities are poised for a potential upswing. The domestic liquidity is expected to remain loose in 2025, and more incremental policies may be introduced in Q4 to boost the real economy. With external risks gradually easing and an increased probability of a Fed rate cut in September, the attractiveness of RMB assets is further enhanced. The current market is at the resonance of "policy bottom + capital bottom + valuation bottom", but investors need to adapt to the accelerating sector rotation and structural differentiation [1][2][9]. - Crude oil prices may be affected by the decision of eight countries to increase daily production by 137,000 barrels starting from October, and the potential partial or full restoration of the 1.65 million barrels per day voluntary production cut. Attention should be paid to the OPEC's production increase situation [3][12]. - The glass and soda ash markets are in the process of inventory digestion, with the futures market showing weakness and converging towards the spot market. The focus is on whether autumn consumption can further aid in inventory digestion and the impact of new policy changes on the fundamentals in the long - term [3][16]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1. Main News on the Day - **International News**: In August, the US consumer price index increased by 2.9% year - on - year (in line with the forecast) and 0.4% month - on - month (higher than the expected 0.3%). The number of initial jobless claims last week was 263,000, higher than the estimated 235,000 [4][5]. - **Domestic News**: The State Council has approved the implementation of comprehensive reform pilot projects for the market - based allocation of factors in 10 regions, including the Beijing Sub - center and several city clusters, for a period of two years starting immediately [6]. - **Industry News**: From September 1 - 7, the retail sales of the national passenger car market were 304,000 units, a 10% year - on - year decrease and a 4% month - on - month decrease. The wholesale volume was 307,000 units, a 5% year - on - year decrease and a 9% month - on - month increase [7]. 3.2. Daily Returns of External Markets - The S&P 500 index rose by 0.85%, the FTSE China A50 futures increased by 2.08%, ICE Brent crude oil dropped by 1.91%, and other commodities showed various degrees of price changes [8]. 3.3. Morning Comments on Major Varieties - **Financial**: - **Stock Index**: The US three major indexes rose, and the previous trading day's stock index rebounded across the board. The communication sector led the gain, with a market turnover of 2.46 trillion yuan. The margin trading balance increased by 5.774 billion yuan to 2.309269 trillion yuan on September 10. The stock index has been rising since July, with short - term fluctuations but a high probability of a long - term upward trend [2][9][10]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The short - end of treasury bonds strengthened, and the yield of the 10 - year active treasury bond fell to 1.8075%. The central bank's net injection of funds maintained a relatively stable capital market. However, concerns about the reduction of bond fund scale, along with the stock - bond seesaw effect and the impact of fund redemption regulations, are expected to keep the long - end of treasury bonds weak [11]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: - **Crude Oil**: The SC crude oil night session fell by 1.45%. Eight countries decided to increase daily production by 137,000 barrels starting from October, and the 1.65 million barrels per day voluntary production cut may be partially or fully restored [3][12]. - **Methanol**: The methanol night session dropped by 0.54%. The operating rate of coal - to - olefin plants decreased, and the coastal methanol inventory reached a historical high, indicating a short - term bearish trend [13]. - **Rubber**: The rubber price showed a weak and volatile trend. The supply is affected by the rainy season in the main producing areas, while the demand is in the off - season with uncertainties. The short - term trend is expected to be in a volatile adjustment [14]. - **Polyolefins**: Polyolefins showed a weak performance. The supply - demand relationship is the main factor in the spot market. Although the inventory is gradually being digested and the rebound of international crude oil prices is helpful, the market still needs time to stop falling. Attention should be paid to the support from downstream procurement [15]. - **Glass and Soda Ash**: The glass futures were in a volatile consolidation. The supply - demand situation is slowly recovering, and the inventory of glass and soda ash production enterprises decreased this week. The futures market is weak and converging towards the spot market, and the focus is on autumn consumption and policy changes [3][16]. - **Metals**: - **Precious Metals**: Gold entered a consolidation phase. The inflation data in August strengthened the expectation of a Fed rate cut in September. The long - term driving factors for gold, such as the US fiscal deficit and central bank gold purchases, still exist. Gold and silver are expected to show a relatively strong trend in the short - term, but investors should be cautious of profit - taking adjustments [17]. - **Copper**: The copper price rose by 0.45% at night. The supply of concentrates is tight, but the smelting output continues to grow. The power, automotive, and other industries have different performance trends, and the copper price is likely to fluctuate within a range [18]. - **Zinc**: The zinc price rose by 0.13% at night. The processing fee of zinc concentrates has increased, and the smelting output is expected to rise. The short - term supply - demand balance may tilt towards oversupply, and the zinc price may fluctuate weakly within a range [19]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The lithium price remained stable. The production increased, and the inventory decreased. However, there are still many uncertainties in the market, and investors should be vigilant against capital speculation [21]. - **Black Metals**: - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The coking coal and coke futures showed a high - level volatile trend. The inventory accumulation is mainly from rebar, and the iron - water output recovery will increase the supply pressure of finished products. Policy expectations and potential production - over - inspection effects can provide some support [22]. - **Iron Ore**: Steel mills have started to resume production, and the demand for iron ore is supported. The global iron ore shipment has decreased recently, and the port inventory is being rapidly depleted. The iron ore price is expected to be volatile and bullish in the future, but attention should be paid to the steel mills' production progress [23]. - **Steel**: The profitability of steel mills remains stable, and the supply pressure is gradually emerging. The steel inventory is accumulating, and the export situation is mixed. The supply - demand contradiction in the steel market is not significant for now, and the short - term trend is a correction [24]. - **Agricultural Products**: - **Protein Meal**: The soybean and rapeseed meal prices rose slightly at night. Although the US soybean export is affected by trade tariffs, the reduction of planting area and potential decline in yield support the price. The domestic market is expected to be in a narrow - range fluctuation, and attention should be paid to the USDA report [25][26]. - **Edible Oils**: The edible oil prices were strong at night. The palm oil price may be under pressure due to the lower - than - expected export in August. The soybean oil price is affected by the US biodiesel policy and the upcoming USDA report. Attention should be paid to China - Canada trade relations and US biodiesel policies [27]. - **Sugar**: The international sugar market is in the inventory accumulation stage with increased Brazilian sugar supply, while the domestic sugar market is supported by high sales - to - production ratio and low inventory. However, the pressure from imported processed sugar and the upcoming new sugar - pressing season may drag down the price. The Zhengzhou sugar futures are expected to follow the weak trend of international sugar [28]. - **Cotton**: The ICE US cotton price rose slightly. The domestic cotton market is shifting the focus to the new cotton purchase, but the downstream demand is weak. The short - term trend of Zhengzhou cotton is expected to be weak [29]. - **Shipping Index**: - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The EC container shipping index to Europe showed a weak performance, falling by 5.28%. With the approaching of the National Day Golden Week, shipping companies are intensifying price competition, and the market is following the downward trend of spot freight rates. Attention should be paid to the shipping companies' price - adjustment rhythm [30].