Morning session notice 早盘提示 Morning session notice 早盘提示 研究员： 王子健 从业资格：F03087965 交易咨询资格：Z0019551 联系方式：17803978037 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 ICE3 月合约结算价 62.67 跌 50 点，5 月 64.40 跌 53 点，7 月 66.10 跌 45 点；成 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 交约 9.0 万手。 郑棉总成交 447651 持仓 1011773。结算价 5 月 14675，9 月 14800，1 月 15185。 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1、1月 29日南疆巴州区域纺企采购 31级双 29含杂 2.7%以内机采新棉疆内库 2605 | | | | | 合约基差成交价 1150-1250 元/吨，提货价在 16050-16200 元/吨，较前一日上涨 | | | | | 50-100 元/吨左右。 | | | | | 2、根据美国商业部数据显示，2025 年 11 月美国的服装及服装配饰零售额(季调) ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the fluctuations in cotton futures prices on the ICE, with a current price of 62.39 cents per pound, reflecting a slight increase of 0.14% from the opening price [1] - On February 3, the opening price for U.S. cotton was 62.85 cents per pound, with a closing price of 62.46 cents, indicating a decrease of 1.16% [1] - The average price of Xinjiang 3128 cotton reached 15,615 yuan per ton, an increase of 70 yuan per ton, while the price of Xinjiang 32s pure cotton yarn remained stable at 22,000 yuan per ton [1] Group 2 - The cotton market is expected to see a "high basis" trend for Xinjiang cotton throughout the 2025/26 season, driven by faster sales progress of cotton by processing enterprises, continued loose credit from financial institutions, and anticipated reductions in cotton planting area and rising costs in 2026 [1] - As of February 3, the number of cotton futures warehouse receipts on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange was 11,772, an increase of 256 from the previous trading day [2]

研究员：余兰兰 021-60635732 yulanlan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0301101 研究员：林贞磊 021-60635740 linzhenlei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3055047 研究员：王海峰 021-60635727 wanghaifeng@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0230741 研究员：洪辰亮 021-60635572 hongchenliang@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3076808 行业 棉花 日期 2026 年 2 月 4 日 研究员：刘悠然 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 农产品研究团队 、 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 一、行情回顾与操作建议 表1：行情回顾 | | | | p . | JE | | DIS | 演 坎 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | -- ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamentals of cotton remain strong with upward potential in the long - run. It is recommended to build long positions on dips. In the short - term, ICE cotton and Zhengzhou cotton are likely to trade in a range [6][7] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Sections 1. Market Information - **Futures Market**: For cotton futures, CF01 closed at 15190 with a 75 - point increase, CF05 at 14650 (+75), and CF09 at 14780 (+95). For cotton yarn futures, CY01 closed at 20250 (unchanged), CY05 at 20495 (+35), and CY09 at 20750 (+245). Trading volumes and open interest showed various changes [2] - **Spot Market**: CCIndex3128B was at 15987 yuan/ton, down 196; Cot A was at 73.95 cents/pound. Different yarn and fiber prices had different changes, with some remaining stable [2] - **Spreads**: Cotton and cotton yarn inter - month spreads and cross - variety spreads also changed. For example, the 1 - 5 month spread of cotton was 540 (unchanged) [2] 2. Market News and Views - **Cotton Market News** - As of January 31, 2026, Brazil's 2025/26 cotton planting was 78.6% complete, 18 percentage points higher month - on - month and 22.5 percentage points faster year - on - year [4] - As of January 30, 2026, the cumulative inspection of U.S. upland and Pima cotton was 296.18 million tons, accounting for 97.7% of the estimated annual output, 6% slower year - on - year [4] - As of February 1, the national cotton notarized inspection volume was 727.4 million tons, up 13.8% year - on - year, with Xinjiang accounting for 717.8 million tons (up 14.1%) and the inland area 9.6 million tons (down 5.7%) [5] - **Trading Logic**: There are news that Xinjiang's cotton planting area is expected to decrease by 266 million mu in 2026, a 7% reduction. However, several textile projects in Xinjiang are expected to boost cotton consumption, so the cotton fundamentals are strong [6] - **Trading Strategy** - **Single - sided**: ICE cotton and Zhengzhou cotton are expected to trade in a range in the short - term. Consider building long positions on dips [7] - **Arbitrage**: Hold a wait - and - see attitude [7] - **Options**: Hold a wait - and - see attitude [8] - **Cotton Yarn Industry News** - Market trading has weakened, with traders and some fabric mills restocking on a small scale. Yarn mills' quotes are basically stable, while traders' quotes are slightly weak [9] - As the Spring Festival approaches, cotton fabric mills have fewer new orders, lower operating rates, and high finished - product inventories. Cotton fabric prices are expected to be stable in the short - term [9] 3. Options - The 60 - day HV of cotton was 9.2812 yesterday, with slightly increased volatility. The implied volatilities of different options were provided. The PCR of the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton decreased in both open interest and trading volume [10] - Recommend a wait - and - see attitude for options [11] 4. Relevant Attachments - The report provides multiple charts, including the 1% tariff - based domestic and international cotton price spread, cotton basis for different months, and spreads between cotton yarn and cotton futures contracts [13][16][20][21]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates a slight decline in cotton futures prices on the ICE, with the opening price at 62.85 cents per pound and a current price of 62.79 cents per pound, reflecting a decrease of 0.02% [1] - On February 2, the average price of Xinjiang 3128 cotton delivered was 15,545 yuan per ton, down by 83 yuan per ton, while the price of Xinjiang 32s pure cotton yarn remained stable at 22,000 yuan per ton [2] - The spinning profit increased to 478.7 yuan per ton, up by 94.62 yuan per ton [2] Group 2 - As of February 2, the number of cotton futures warehouse receipts on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange was 11,516, an increase of 143 from the previous trading day [2] - By February 1, 2026, the cumulative amount of cotton inspected nationwide for the new season reached 7.2746 million tons, an increase of 889,500 tons year-on-year [2]

Core Viewpoint - Domestic cotton prices are supported by a warm macro atmosphere and quick spot sales, while international cotton prices are under pressure due to geopolitical tensions and a decline in U.S. cotton export contracts, leading to a continued weak oscillation pattern [1][2]. Price Review - Domestic cotton supply is abundant, with spot sales increasing, resulting in a slight rise in cotton prices. The main contract price for Zhengzhou cotton futures averaged 14,726 CNY/ton, up 130 CNY/ton (0.9%) from the previous week. The national cotton price B index averaged 15,947 CNY/ton, up 121 CNY/ton (0.8%) [2]. - Internationally, geopolitical tensions have led to a decline in market sentiment, with the main contract price for New York cotton futures averaging 63.44 cents/pound, down 0.64 cents/pound (1.0%) from the previous week. The international cotton index (M) averaged 72.36 cents/pound, with an import cost of 12,394 CNY/ton, down 26 CNY/ton (0.2%) [2]. - The price difference between domestic and international cotton has widened to 3,553 CNY/ton, an increase of 147 CNY/ton from the previous week [2]. Textile Market - Yarn prices continue to rise, with domestic yarn prices stronger than imported yarn. The average price for domestic C32S yarn is 21,376 CNY/ton, up 70 CNY/ton (0.3%), while the average price for imported C32S yarn is 20,980 CNY/ton, up 48 CNY/ton (0.2%) [3]. - Polyester staple fiber prices increased by 195 CNY/ton to 6,696 CNY/ton [3]. Market Outlook - The macro market shows weak expectations for short-term interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, with ongoing risks of a U.S. government shutdown and escalating U.S.-Iran tensions affecting market sentiment. The Fed has maintained the benchmark interest rate at 3.50%-3.75% since January, reducing expectations for immediate rate cuts [4]. - Domestic policies aimed at boosting service consumption and improving industrial profits are expected to support economic expectations. The State Council has issued a plan to stimulate service consumption, and industrial profits have shown positive growth for the first time in four years [4]. - The cotton market is experiencing tightening international supply and resilient consumption demand. Brazilian cotton exports have significantly slowed, and Australian cotton production is expected to decline due to irrigation water shortages. U.S. cotton contract signings have dropped by 51% week-on-week [5]. - Domestic cotton sales are stable, with a sales rate of 64.5%, up 22.9 percentage points year-on-year. However, as the Spring Festival approaches, market activity is expected to slow down, with companies focusing on recovering payments and clearing inventory [5][6]. Summary - The current cotton market is characterized by domestic fundamentals supporting prices while international macro factors exert pressure. Despite domestic sales and yarn price support, market drivers are expected to weaken as production winds down ahead of the Spring Festival. Short-term cotton prices are anticipated to oscillate within a range, with attention needed on post-holiday textile enterprise resumption, global trade policies, and U.S. planting intentions [6].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that cotton futures prices on the ICE are experiencing a downward trend, with the current price at 63.24 cents per pound, reflecting a decrease of 0.35% from the opening price [1] Group 2 - On January 29, the opening price of U.S. cotton was 63.73 cents per pound, with a closing price of 63.44 cents per pound, marking a decline of 0.80% [2] - The average price of Xinjiang 3128 cotton delivered to factories was 15,868 yuan per ton, down by 16 yuan per ton, while the price of Xinjiang 32s pure cotton yarn remained stable at 22,100 yuan per ton [2] - The U.S. Department of Agriculture reported that for the week ending January 22, net sales of U.S. upland cotton for the 2025/2026 marketing year were 204,000 bales, down from 412,000 bales the previous week [2] Group 3 - According to the CFTC data as of January 23, the number of unpriced sell orders for U.S. cotton was 50,908 contracts, a decrease of 1,413 contracts, while unpriced buy orders increased by 2,505 contracts to 98,867 contracts [3] - The number of unpriced contracts for sellers on ICE cotton 2603 was 14,435 contracts, which is a reduction of 4,839 contracts compared to the previous week [3]

研究员：洪辰亮 021-60635572 hongchenliang@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3076808 研究员：刘悠然 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 农产品研究团队 、 请阅读正文后的声明 行业 棉花 日期 2026 年 1 月 30 日 研究员：余兰兰 021-60635732 yulanlan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0301101 研究员：林贞磊 021-60635740 linzhenlei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3055047 研究员：王海峰 021-60635727 wanghaifeng@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0230741 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 一、行情回顾与操作建议 | 表1：行情回顾 | | --- | 数据来源：Wind，建信期货研究发展部 郑棉大缩量收涨。现货方面，最新棉花价格指数 328 级在 16103 元/吨，较上 一交易日涨 170 元/吨。20 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that cotton futures prices on the ICE are experiencing fluctuations, with a slight increase observed on January 29, 2023, where the price opened at 63.73 cents per pound and reached a high of 63.83 cents per pound, reflecting a 0.16% increase [1] Group 2 - On January 28, 2023, the opening price of U.S. cotton was 63.77 cents per pound, with a closing price of 63.95 cents per pound, marking a 0.31% increase [2] - The average price of Xinjiang 3128 cotton delivered to factories was 15,884 yuan per ton, an increase of 415 yuan per ton [2] - The price of Xinjiang 32s pure cotton yarn remained stable at 22,100 yuan per ton, while spinning profit decreased to 192.24 yuan per ton, down by 473.10 yuan per ton [2] - As of January 27, 2026, the cumulative amount of cotton inspected nationwide for the new season reached 7.1952 million tons, an increase of 812,500 tons year-on-year [2] - In Brazil's Mato Grosso state, the cotton planting progress improved by 19 percentage points to 48% as of January 23, compared to 29% in the same period last year [2]

Group 1: Report Basics - Reported industry: Cotton [1] - Date: January 29, 2026 [2] - Researchers: Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [3] Group 2: Market Review and Recommendations Market Review - Zhengzhou cotton prices soared. The latest price index for 328-grade cotton was 15,933 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The mainstream basis for 31-grade double 29/ impurity within 3 for machine-picked cotton in southern Xinjiang's Kashgar in the 2025/26 season was mostly at CF05 + 950 or higher, with the 950 - 1000 basis range narrowing. In northern Xinjiang, it was mostly above 1100, with some below, and many quotes close to 1200 or higher, all for self-pickup in Xinjiang [7]. - The trading in the pure cotton yarn market was divided. Some inland spinning enterprises gradually reduced production capacity, and small spinning enterprises began to take holidays. Orders lacked sustainability, and the focus was on inventory preparation. Xinjiang spinning enterprises maintained a certain level of sales and high operation rates. The demand in the all-cotton grey fabric market decreased, and fabric mills were winding down. Spot market inquiries declined. In terms of varieties, the sales of regular C32S, C21S, and lower-grade yarn cards were weaker than before, and current prices remained stable [7]. Market Analysis - Macroeconomically, due to Trump's "yo-yo" remarks on the US dollar and signs that traders were watching for possible coordinated actions by the US and Japan to intervene in the foreign exchange market, the US dollar index hit a four-year low, and the commodity market was generally strong. Overseas, according to the US Department of Agriculture, as of the week ending January 23, 2026, the cumulative inspection volume of US upland cotton + Pima cotton was 2.9374 million tons, accounting for 96.9% of the estimated US cotton production for the year, 7% slower year-on-year (the estimated US cotton production for the 2025/26 season was 2.95 million tons). The overseas market rebounded from a low. In the domestic market, the expected decline in the cotton planting area in Xinjiang for the 2026/27 season had been partially factored in, and the reduction plan was to be gradually implemented over 3 - 5 years. On the demand side, orders for some medium and high-grade varieties were stable, while others were weak. Manufacturers in the yarn and fabric sectors were eager to collect payments, and most merchants expected enterprises to start taking holidays next week. Affected by macro factors, Zhengzhou cotton rebounded sharply with increased positions. Attention should be paid to the performance at the previous high resistance level [8]. Group 3: Industry News - According to the Brazilian National Supply Company (Conab), as of the week ending January 24, the cotton planting rate in Brazil for the 2025/26 season was 60.6%, up from 36.3% the previous week, compared with 46.3% in the same period last year and a five-year average of 40.9% [9]. - According to the National Bureau of Statistics, the yarn production of large-scale enterprises in December 2025 was 2.132 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 1.1%. The cumulative yarn production from January to December was 22.158 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 0.1%. The fabric production of large-scale enterprises in December 2025 was 3.01 billion meters, a year-on-year increase of 3.8%. The cumulative fabric production from January to December was 30.67 billion square meters, a year-on-year increase of 0.2% [9] Group 4: Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts including the China Cotton Price Index, cotton spot and futures prices, cotton basis changes, CF spreads, cotton commercial and industrial inventories, warehouse receipt totals, and exchange rates of the US dollar against the Chinese yuan and Indian rupee, with data sources from Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [18][19][29]