文 | 刘冬博 孙芳芳 来源 | 国投期货研究院 编辑 | 杨兰 审核 | 浦电路交易员 目录 期市有风险,投资需谨慎 1、铸造铝合金产业介绍 1.1 铸造铝合金介绍 铝合金是我国体量最大、应用最为广泛的有色金属材料,是以铝为主要成分加入其他金属元素或非金属 元素熔合而成的合金。铝具有低密度、良好的导电性和导热性等优点，但纯铝的强度相对较低，通过添加其 他元素,如铜、镁、锌、硅等,可以显著提高铝的强度、硬度、耐腐蚀性等性能。 铝合金可分为原生铝合金和再生铝合金，分别以原铝和废铝为原料再添加其他合金元素而成。按加工方 式，铝合金又分为铸造铝合金和变形铝合金。上海期货交易所即将上市的铸造铝合金期货合约标的为再生 铸造铝合金，交割标的为 383Y.3（国际 GB/T8377-2016）和 AD12.1（日标 JISH2118-2006 )，两 者合金成分要求相同,杂志成分要求略有差异,市场统称为 ADC12。 ADC12 是再生铸造铝合金的核心牌号，是众多铝合金牌号中的一个分支，从体量上直观来看，目前 ADC12 产量占原铝产量的 10%左右。 | 1 、铸造铝合金产业介绍 … | | --- | | 1.1 铸造 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the significant transformation and digitalization occurring within the aluminum industry, particularly showcased at the Binzhou Aluminum Expo [3][13] - The 2025 Binzhou Aluminum Expo, held from September 11-13, featured over 500 exhibitors and covered an exhibition area of 25,000 square meters, serving as a key platform for observing the intelligent transformation of the aluminum industry [3][13] - The expo demonstrated a shift from traditional manufacturing to intelligent manufacturing, emphasizing the integration of digital technologies in the aluminum production process [3][11] Group 2 - The Binzhou Aluminum Expo is positioned as a "testbed for industry intelligence," driven by technological iteration and practical application across the aluminum industry [3][7] - The event showcased a complete chain from raw materials to research and development, manufacturing, and testing, highlighting the digital linkage from material design to finished product manufacturing [7] - Discussions on the construction of digital twin systems for the aluminum industry were held, promoting the application of virtual simulation technology in production line planning [7][11] Group 3 - The expo facilitated a collaborative ecosystem between emerging companies and industry leaders, creating a "dual matrix of intelligent manufacturing" that fosters innovation [11] - The collaboration led to the development of an "aluminum processing technology knowledge base," which utilizes machine learning to integrate production data and significantly shorten new product development cycles [11] - The event underscored the necessity of intelligent transformation in the aluminum industry, marking it as an inevitable trend integrated into every production phase [13]

中国证监会近日同意上海期货交易所（下称上期所）铸造铝合金期货及期权注册，标志着我国期货市场首 个再生金属品种即将上市。证监会要求上期所做好各项准备工作，保障铸造铝合金期货及期权平稳运行和 健康发展。 这是我国再生金属产业第一个品种上市，对于打造产业更好生态具有重要意义。一方面形成透明、高效的定价 方式，通过市场化机制及时反映产品供需，推动产品质量和产业结构优化；另一方面控制风险、盘活资金，解 决企业成本高、账期长等痛点难题，提升抗风险能力；第三标准化引领、规范发展，以标准化产品和交割体系 促进产业提升 ，引领产业向高质量方向迈进。 铸造铝合金期货及期权即将上市，为相关产业提供了全新风险管理利器，业内反响积极。 助力绿色转型 据了解，我国是全球最大的铸造铝合金生产国和消费国，据中国有色金属工业协会统计，2024年，我国铸造铝 合金（再生）产能约为1300万吨，产量约为620万吨；表观消费量约为673万吨。铸造铝合金具有低密度、高强 度、良好的抗蚀性和优异的铸造工艺性，广泛应用于汽车、摩托车、机械设备、通信设备、电子电器、五金灯 具等领域。 铸造铝合金是以废铝为主要原料，与铜、硅等熔炼后，通过铸造工艺生成毛坯或零 ...

2025年是全面振兴新突破三年行动的收官之年，营口大石桥经济开发区将聚力产业链强链补 链，瞄准精细化工、铝产业、有色金属等方向，深化与江苏、上海、滁州等地合作，推进沈 阳沈飞旭达6亿元风电光伏、科威特5万吨燃料油及10万吨沥青深加工等项目落地；持续推 广"管委会+公司"模式，共建政产学研用平台，加速科技成果转化，深化与北京化工大学等 高校合作，推动菱镁化工向医药级镁制品升级；通过开展"领导干部进园区"、举办"企业家 接待日"活动、建立"未诉先办"机制等举措，确保企业诉求快速响应、精准解决，持续优化 营商环境。 2025年一季度，营口大石桥经济开发区紧扣高质量发展主线，以"起步即冲刺"的姿态， 全力推动项目建设、产业发展和改革创新。全年计划开复工项目25个，总投资22.05亿元。 一季度预计完成固定资产投资1亿元，同比增长8.2%，预计完成技术合同成交额1050万元， 同比增长31.2%。营口大石桥经济开发区省级以上绿色工厂增至3家，新增清洁生产企业2 家。营口大石桥经济开发区获批辽宁省绿色工业园区，制定了全省首个开发区《环境保护准 入条件》。 年初以来，营口大石桥经济开发区围绕新材料、金属制造、循环经济及化工 ...

所长 早读 国泰君安期货 2025-05-22 期 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 期货研究 2025-05-22 所长 早读 外资机构纷纷看多中国股市 观点分享： 据证券日报报道，5 月 21 日，第 28 届瑞银亚洲投资论坛媒体分享会召开，瑞银全球金 融市场部中国主管房东明表示，当前，国际市场对中国资产关注度持续升温。一方面，流动 性向好趋势明显，这对提升投资者信心至关重要，量化基金及其他中长线海外投资者均积极 寻求深度参与中国资本市场。同时，中国监管部门也积极回应全球投资者关切点，提供切实 指导与帮助。另一方面，新质生产力领域吸引力愈发凸显，在人工智能、高端制造等产业链 推动下，中国股市叙事逻辑转变，叠加政策推动，全球投资者对中国资产中长短期关注度都 在不断提升；高盛最新报告显示，将 MSCI 中国指数和沪深 300 指数的 12 个月目标分别上 调至 84 点和 4600 点（分别有 11%和 17%的潜在上涨空间），维持对中国股票的超配评级； 摩根士丹利中国首席经济学家邢自强表示，中国拥有充足的应对冲击的回旋空间。原因有四 方面：一是国内政策刺激拥有加码空间；二是整体社会民生仍具有承 ...

Group 1: Investment Ratings - The investment rating for the alumina industry chain is "Oscillating Bullish" for caustic soda and alumina, and "Oscillating" for aluminum [1][3][4] Group 2: Core Views - In the alumina industry chain, caustic soda prices are expected to continue a small - scale oscillating upward trend in the short term; alumina prices are expected to oscillate upward in the short term; and aluminum prices are expected to maintain an oscillating trend in the short term [1][3][4] Group 3: Summary by Variety Caustic Soda - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day's futures main 2509 contract oscillated downward during the day and continued to decline at night, closing at 2513 yuan/ton, down 48 yuan/ton or 1.87%. Trading volume was 614,700 lots, a significant decrease from the previous trading day; open interest was 200,800 lots, an increase of 14,213 lots; turnover was 47.285 billion yuan, a significant decrease from the previous trading day [1] - **Important Information**: Weekly caustic soda operating rate was 85.97%, a 0.68% increase from the previous week; weekly domestic production was 835,100 tons, a 0.68% increase; weekly domestic factory inventory was 256,000 tons, a 2.77% increase; cost per 100% caustic soda was 1,800.96 yuan/ton, a 0.09% decrease; gross profit per 100% caustic soda was 1,202.22 yuan/ton, a 1.04% increase [1] - **Market Logic**: The average price of the domestic 32% liquid caustic soda market was 953.91 yuan/ton, up 3.38 yuan/ton or 0.36% from the previous working day. The domestic liquid caustic soda market average price increased, with different trends in futures and spot. The supply in the industry is relatively sufficient, and downstream receiving is stable. Non - aluminum downstream demand is mainly for rigid procurement, and the alumina market's demand is driven by the price improvement [1] - **Trading Strategy**: Sell put options [1] Alumina - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day's futures main 2509 contract was weakly running during the day and oscillated narrowly at night, closing at 3111 yuan/ton, down 37 yuan/ton or 1.18%. Trading volume was 2,165,900 lots, a slight decrease from the previous trading day; open interest was 473,600 lots, an increase of 30,803 lots; turnover was 136.348 billion yuan, a slight decrease from the previous trading day [3] - **Important Information**: Last week, domestic alumina factory inventory was 158547 tons, a 0.02% decrease from the previous week; market inventory was 76,000 tons, unchanged from the previous week. This week, domestic metallurgical - grade alumina production was 162,160 tons, a 0.96% decrease; the weekly operating utilization rate was 76.46%, a 0.96% decrease. The average reference production cash cost of the domestic alumina industry was 3198.36 yuan/ton, a 4.04% decrease; industry gross profit was - 239.07 yuan/ton, a 45.24% increase [3] - **Market Logic**: The spot market average price was 3059.85 yuan/ton, up 48.62 yuan/ton or 1.61% from the previous trading day. The Guinea incident continued to disrupt the market, with an expected decrease in ore supply, and alumina prices remained high. The market's operating capacity was always at a low level, resulting in a supply gap. There was an expected decrease in Guinea's ore supply and an expected increase in imported ore prices, increasing enterprise costs and leading to a reluctance to sell in the industry. The import market was relatively active, with the Australian FOB price at 367 US dollars/ton. China's alumina imports in April were 10705.49 tons, a 90.12% year - on - year decrease and a 4.16% month - on - month decrease; exports were 262875.89 tons, a 101.62% year - on - year increase and an 11.41% month - on - month decrease [3] - **Trading Strategy**: Sell put options [3] Aluminum - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day's futures main 2507 contract oscillated, jumped at the night - session opening and continued a small - scale upward trend, closing at 20185 yuan/ton, up 125 yuan/ton or 0.62%. Trading volume was 182,300 lots, a slight decrease from the previous trading day; open interest was 515,900 lots, a decrease of 5569 lots; turnover was 18.285 billion yuan, a slight decrease from the previous trading day [4] - **Important Information**: Bauxite weekly production was 1.13 million tons, a 0.53% increase; electrolytic aluminum weekly production was 84.09 tons, a 0.02% increase. This week, the industry's production cost was 16894.59 yuan/ton, a 0.6% increase; the industry's average gross profit was 3229.78 yuan/ton, a 12.27% increase. Factory inventory during the week was 53,000 tons, a 3.99% decrease; market inventory was 61,940 tons, a 5.13% decrease; LME inventory was 395,400 tons, a 0.46% decrease; SHFE inventory was 62,800 tons, a 1.6% decrease [4] - **Market Logic**: The Fed Vice - Chairman Jefferson emphasized a wait - and - see attitude, advocating patience in adjusting interest rates. Coupled with the downward risk of the US economy, the outer - market aluminum price was affected. The domestic market was still waiting and seeing about the impact of tariff policies, and the market sentiment eased after domestic banks lowered deposit rates. There were both bullish and bearish news in the current industry, but domestic macro - policies would continue to drive market demand, and the overall domestic market sentiment was good [4] - **Trading Strategy**: Sell put options [4]

所长 早读 国泰君安期货 2025-05-20 期 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 期货研究 2025-05-20 所长 早读 4 月经济数据发布，有亮点有短板 观点分享： 近日公布的国内 4 月六大口径数据（工业、服务业、出口、社零、投资、地产销售）同 比均不同程度低于前值，显示在外部关税骤然上升的背景下，经济较 3 月有所放缓。分析上 述数据，广发郭磊的观点认为有三亮点三短板：亮点之一是实际增长虽有放缓但仍韧性较强， 一些新兴产业领域产品扩张较快；二是产销率没有显性变化，供求关系没有因为外生冲击大 幅承压；之三是消费修复速度略超预期。短板同样有三：一是固定资产投资整体增速较低； 二是房地产出现回踩特征，价格也尚未企稳；三是物价中枢偏低没有改变。 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 2 今 日 发 现 所 长 首 推 | 板块 | 关注指数 | | --- | --- | | 碳酸锂 | ★★★★ | 碳酸锂：过剩预期延续叠加成本下移，价格走势或仍偏弱。一方面来看，供给端未见明显减 量，上周碳酸锂开工率提升至 48%，周度产量环比回升至 16630 吨，由于利润约束，中美关 税缓和带来的出口增 ...

| 铜产业期现日报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 【2011】1292号 2025年5月14日 星期三 | | | | 周敏波 | Z0015979 | | 价格及基差 | | | | | | | | 现值 | 前值 | 日 涨跌 | 日涨跌幅 | 单位 | | SMM 1#电解铜 | 78155 | 78275 | -120.00 | -0.15% | 元/吨 | | SMM 1#电解铜开贴水 | -10 | -15 | +5.00 | | 元/吨 | | SMM 广东1#电解铜 | 78215 | 78340 | -125.00 | -0.16% | 元/吨 | | SMM 广东1#电解铜升贴水 | 45 | 85 | -40.00 | - | 元/吨 | | SMM湿法铜 | 78095 | 78215 | -120.00 | -0.15% | 元/吨 | | SMM湿法铜升贴水 | -70 | -75 | +5.00 | - | 元/吨 | | 精废价差 | 1265 | 1430 | -165.00 ...

| | 锡产业期现日报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1292号 | | | | | | | 2025年5月13日 | | | | | 寇帝斯 | Z0021810 | | 现货价格及基差 | | | | | | | | | 品种 | 现值 | 前值 | 张跃 | 张跌幅 | 单位 | | | SMM 1#锡 | 262800 | 259600 | 3200 | 1.23% | | | | SMM 1#锡升贴水 | 900 | 900 | O | 0.00% | 元/吨 | | | 长江 1#锡 | 263300 | 260100 | 3200 | 1.23% | | | | LME 0-3升贴水 | -43.01 | -158.07 | 115.06 | 72.79% | 美元/吨 | | | 内外比价及进口盈亏 | | | | | | | | 品种 | 现值 | 前值 | 张跃 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | | 进口盈亏 | -2373.05 | -9430.59 | 7057. ...

铝类产业日报 2025/5/13 撰写人：王福辉 从业资格证号：F03123381 投资咨询从业证书号：Z0019878 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 最新 环比 数据指标 最新 | | | | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪铝主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 20,005.00 | +95.00↑ 氧化铝期货主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 2,840.00 | -3.00↓ | | 期货市场 | 本月-下月合约价差:沪铝(日,元/吨) | 45.00 | -30.00↓ 本月-下月合约价差:氧化铝(日,元/吨) | -5.00 | +4.00↑ | | | 主力合约持仓量:沪铝(日,手) | 160,449.00 | -7196.00↓ 主力合约持仓量:氧化铝(日,手) | 283,672.00 | +11058.00↑ | | | LME铝注销仓单(日,吨) | 151,350.00 | -2025.00↓ 库存:氧化铝:合计(周,万吨) | 270,165.00 | -15113.00↓ | | | LME电解铝三个月报价（日，美元/吨） ...