知识图强,求实奉献,客户至上,合作共赢 关注微信公众号 #NAME | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 【2011】1292号 | 产业链期现日报 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025年12月4日 | | | | 周敏波 | Z0015979 | | 价格及价差 | | | | | | | | 现值 | 前值 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | SMM A00铝 | 21800 | 21710 | 90.0 | 0.41% | 元/吨 | | SMM A00铝升贴水 | -50 | - 50 | 0.0 | / | 元/吨 | | 长江 铝A00 | 21790 | 21700 | 90.0 | 0.41% | 元/吨 | | 长江 铝A00 升贴水 | -60 | -60 | 0.0 | / | 元/吨 | | 氧化铝(山东)-平均价 | 2760 | 2760 | 0.0 | 0.00% | 元/吨 | | 氧化铝(河南)-平均价 | 2850 | 2850 | 0.0 | 0.00% | 元/吨 | | 氧化铝(山西)-平均价 | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Reports Tin Considering the strong fundamentals, maintain a bullish view on tin prices. Hold existing long positions and consider adding long positions on price pullbacks. Monitor macro and supply - side changes [1]. Aluminum Oxide The oversupply situation continues to suppress prices, which are expected to fluctuate at the bottom. The reference range for the main contract is lowered to 2600 - 2800 yuan/ton. Observe actual production cuts and inventory inflection points [3]. Aluminum Short - term aluminum prices are expected to remain strong, with the reference range for the SHFE main contract this week being 21500 - 22200 yuan/ton. Focus on the latest Fed monetary policy and domestic inventory depletion sustainability [3]. Aluminum Alloy The casting aluminum alloy market is supported by cost and demand. Short - term prices are expected to remain firm, with the main contract reference range at 20700 - 21400 yuan/ton. Monitor scrap aluminum supply improvement and inventory depletion [5]. Polysilicon In December, there is an oversupply situation, and each link is expected to accumulate inventory. The trading strategy is to wait and see [7]. Industrial Silicon The industrial silicon market in December remains in a weak supply - demand situation. Prices are expected to fluctuate at a low level, with the main price range at 8500 - 9500 yuan/ton [8]. Zinc The zinc price is expected to fluctuate. The supply pressure is relieved, but the fundamentals provide limited upward momentum. The main contract reference range is 22200 - 23000 yuan/ton [11]. Copper The medium - to - long - term supply - demand contradiction supports the upward shift of the copper price bottom. The main contract support range is 88500 - 89500 yuan/ton. Monitor overseas interest rate cut expectations and smelting production cuts [13]. Lithium Carbonate The short - term disk is expected to fluctuate widely, with the main contract reference range at 92000 - 95000 yuan/ton [16]. Nickel The short - term disk is expected to fluctuate within a range, with the main contract reference range at 116000 - 120000 yuan/ton. Monitor macro expectations and Indonesian industrial policy news [19]. Stainless Steel The short - term disk is expected to remain weakly volatile, with the main contract reference range at 12300 - 12700 yuan/ton. Monitor steel mills' production cut implementation and ferro - nickel prices [20]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Tin - **Price and Spread**: SMM 1 tin and Yangtze 1 tin prices rose 1.51%, LME 0 - 3 spread dropped 38.67%. Import loss decreased 13.91%, and some monthly spreads changed significantly [1]. - **Fundamentals**: In October, tin ore imports, SMM refined tin production, and average开工率 increased, while refined tin imports, exports, and SMM solder开工率 decreased [1]. - **Inventory**: SHEF, social, and LME inventories increased, while SHEF warehouse receipts decreased slightly [1]. Aluminum Oxide - **Price and Spread**: SMM A00 aluminum prices rose 0.41%, and most alumina prices remained unchanged. Aluminum import loss decreased, and monthly spreads were stable [3]. - **Fundamentals**: In November, alumina and electrolytic aluminum production decreased, while alumina开工率 and some downstream开工率 increased [3]. - **Inventory**: Chinese electrolytic aluminum and aluminum rod social inventories decreased, while electrolytic aluminum plant alumina inventory increased [3]. Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Spread**: SMM ADC12 alloy prices were stable, and some scrap - to - refined aluminum price spreads increased [5]. - **Fundamentals**: In November, recycled and primary aluminum alloy ingot production increased, while unforged aluminum alloy ingot imports decreased and exports increased [5]. - **Inventory**: Recycled aluminum alloy social inventory decreased slightly, and some daily inventories changed [5]. Polysilicon - **Price and Spread**: Polysilicon spot prices were stable, futures prices rose, and silicon wafer and component prices fell. Some monthly spreads changed significantly [7]. - **Fundamentals**: In November and December, polysilicon and silicon wafer production decreased, imports and exports changed, and demand decreased [7]. - **Inventory**: Polysilicon and silicon wafer inventories increased [7]. Industrial Silicon - **Price and Spread**: East China oxygen - passing SI5530 industrial silicon spot prices fell slightly, and futures prices declined. Some monthly spreads changed [8]. - **Fundamentals**: In November, national industrial silicon production decreased, and some regional production and开工率 changed. Organic silicon production increased [8]. - **Inventory**: Some regional factory inventories and social inventories increased slightly [8]. Zinc - **Price and Spread**: SMM 0 zinc ingot prices rose slightly, and import loss decreased. Some monthly spreads changed [11]. - **Fundamentals**: In November, refined zinc production decreased, imports decreased, and exports increased. Downstream开工率 was relatively stable [11]. - **Inventory**: Chinese zinc ingot social inventory decreased, and LME inventory increased [11]. Copper - **Price and Spread**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper prices rose, and some spreads changed. Import loss increased slightly [13]. - **Fundamentals**: In November, electrolytic copper production increased, and imports decreased. Some processing开工率 decreased [13]. - **Inventory**: Domestic social and SHFE inventories decreased, while bonded and LME inventories increased [13]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Spread**: SMM battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate prices decreased slightly, and some monthly spreads changed [16]. - **Fundamentals**: In November, lithium carbonate production and demand increased, imports and exports increased, and开工率 increased [16]. - **Inventory**: Lithium carbonate total, downstream, and smelter inventories decreased [16]. Nickel - **Price and Spread**: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel prices rose slightly, and some spreads and costs changed [19]. - **Fundamentals**: Chinese refined nickel production and imports decreased, and some inventories increased or decreased [19]. - **Inventory**: SHFE and social inventories increased, while LME and bonded area inventories decreased [19]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Spread**: 304/2B stainless steel prices were stable, and some monthly spreads changed [20]. - **Fundamentals**: Chinese and Indonesian 300 - series stainless steel production changed, imports increased, and exports decreased [20]. - **Inventory**: 300 - series social and cold - rolled social inventories increased, and SHFE warehouse receipts decreased slightly [20].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - For tin, considering the strong fundamentals, maintain a bullish view on tin prices. Hold existing long positions and adopt a strategy of buying on dips. Pay attention to macro - level changes and supply - side recovery [2]. - For industrial silicon, expect prices to remain in a low - level oscillation, with the main price fluctuation range between 8500 - 9500 yuan/ton. The market will maintain weak supply and demand in December [4]. - For polysilicon, the market is expected to be oversupplied in December with inventory accumulation expected in each link. Futures should be put on hold for now, and out - of - the - money put options can be bought on the options side when volatility is low [5]. - For zinc, the short - term price has limited downside space, but the fundamentals also provide limited elasticity for continuous upward movement. Prices are likely to oscillate. Pay attention to the inflection point of TC and changes in refined zinc inventory [7]. - For copper, the medium - and long - term supply - demand contradiction supports the upward shift of the bottom center of copper prices. Pay attention to overseas interest - rate cut expectations and smelting - end production cuts [8]. - For nickel, the overall driving force is still limited. Short - term prices are expected to oscillate within a range. Pay attention to macro - level expectations and Indonesian industrial policy news [11]. - For stainless steel, the short - term low - valuation situation may lead to some price recovery, but the driving force is limited. Prices are expected to remain weakly oscillating. Pay attention to steel mills' production cut implementation and nickel - iron prices [14]. - For aluminum, alumina prices are expected to remain in a bottom - level oscillation. Aluminum prices are expected to remain strong in the short term [15]. - For lithium carbonate, the short - term price has support, but the unilateral driving force is weakened. The market is expected to oscillate widely around 95,000 yuan [16]. - For aluminum alloy, the short - term price trend of the casting aluminum alloy market is still strong. Pay attention to the improvement of scrap aluminum supply and the sustainability of inventory reduction [18]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Tin - **Price and Spread**: SMM 1 tin price increased by 2.73% to 308,200 yuan/ton, and SMM 1 tin premium remained unchanged. Import loss widened by 15.76% to - 19,428.35 yuan/ton. Some monthly spreads changed significantly [2]. - **Fundamentals**: In October, tin ore imports increased by 33.49%, SMM refined tin production increased by 53.09%, refined tin imports decreased by 58.55%, and exports decreased by 15.33%. SHEF and social inventories increased slightly [2]. Industrial Silicon - **Price and Spread**: The spot price of industrial silicon stabilized, and the futures price fluctuated. The basis of the main contract decreased. Some monthly spreads changed significantly [4]. - **Fundamentals**: National industrial silicon production decreased by 11.17% in November, and the national operating rate increased by 9.98%. Organic silicon DMC production increased by 3.82%, while polysilicon production decreased by 14.48%. Social inventory increased slightly [4]. Polysilicon - **Price and Spread**: The spot price of polysilicon stabilized, and the futures price rose. Some monthly spreads changed significantly [5]. - **Fundamentals**: Weekly and monthly polysilicon production decreased, imports increased by 11.96%, and exports decreased by 27.99%. Inventories of polysilicon and silicon wafers increased [5]. Zinc - **Price and Spread**: SMM 0 zinc ingot price increased by 0.85% to 22,560 yuan/ton, and the premium decreased. Import loss decreased, and some monthly spreads changed [7]. - **Fundamentals**: In November, refined zinc production decreased by 3.56%. In October, imports decreased by 16.94% and exports increased by 243.79%. LME inventory increased, and domestic social inventory decreased [7]. Copper - **Price and Spread**: The price of SMM 1 electrolytic copper increased by 2.15%, and the premium decreased. The refined - scrap price difference increased by 18.01%, and the import loss widened [8]. - **Fundamentals**: In November, electrolytic copper production increased by 1.05%. In October, imports decreased by 15.61%. Domestic social inventory decreased, and some operating rates decreased [8]. Nickel - **Price and Spread**: The price of SMM 1 electrolytic nickel increased slightly, and the premium of 1 Jinchuan nickel increased by 1.05%. The futures import loss widened by 17.58% [11]. - **Fundamentals**: China's refined nickel production increased by 0.84% in November, and imports decreased by 65.66%. SHFE and social inventories increased, while LME inventory decreased slightly [11]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Spread**: The spot price of stainless steel remained stable, and the basis decreased. Some monthly spreads changed slightly [14]. - **Fundamentals**: China's 300 - series stainless steel crude steel production decreased by 0.72% in November, imports increased by 3.18%, and exports decreased by 14.43%. Social inventory increased slightly [14]. Aluminum - **Price and Spread**: The price of SMM A00 aluminum increased by 1.31%, and the premium decreased. Alumina prices in some regions decreased [15]. - **Fundamentals**: In October, alumina production decreased by 4.44%, and electrolytic aluminum production decreased by 2.82%. Some operating rates increased, and domestic social inventory decreased [15]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Spread**: The average price of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate increased by 0.64%, and some monthly spreads decreased [16]. - **Fundamentals**: In November, lithium carbonate production increased by 3.35%, demand increased by 5.11%, and total inventory decreased by 23.36% [16]. Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Spread**: The price of SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 increased by 0.70%, and some scrap - refined price differences changed [18]. - **Fundamentals**: In October, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots decreased by 2.42%, and the production of primary aluminum alloy ingots increased by 5.84%. Some operating rates decreased, and social inventory decreased slightly [18].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Views of the Report - Copper: Last week, Shanghai copper increased in volume and price, mainly due to the rising expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut and the weakening of the US dollar index. On Friday night, copper prices continued to rise, with LME copper breaking through the $11,000 mark and hitting a new high, while Shanghai copper approached the 89,000 mark. Technically, the open interest of Shanghai copper increased from 510,000 contracts to 560,000 contracts last week, showing strong short - term upward momentum. Attention should be paid to the technical pressure at the end - October high. If it breaks through, it may maintain a strong trend in the short term [6][63]. - Aluminum: Last week, aluminum prices rebounded with a decrease in positions, and there was a trend of increasing positions and rising prices on Friday night. This rebound was mainly driven by macro factors, such as the rising expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut. The decline in the Shanghai - LME ratio indicated that the rise was mainly led by the external market. Globally, the low inventory of electrolytic aluminum supported the price. However, as aluminum prices rebounded, domestic downstream demand decreased, and the spot discount widened. Technically, attention can be paid to the pressure at the 22,000 mark [7][63]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Macro Factors - Last week, the market's expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut continued to rise, with the probability of a December rate cut increasing from 70% to nearly 90%. Correspondingly, the US dollar index weakened from the 100 mark, which was beneficial to non - ferrous metals and precious metals [11]. 3.2 Copper 3.2.1 Quantity - Price Trend - Last week, Shanghai copper increased in volume and price. On Friday night, copper prices continued to rise, with LME copper breaking through the $11,000 mark and Shanghai copper approaching the 89,000 mark. The open interest of Shanghai copper increased from 510,000 contracts to 560,000 contracts, indicating increased capital attention and strong short - term upward momentum [6][63]. 3.2.2 Copper Ore Shortage - Last week, the port inventory of copper ore continued to rise from a low level and was close to the same - period level in previous years. On November 28, Mysteel's port inventory of copper ore was 674,000 tons, an increase of 78,000 tons from the previous week. In November, with the rise in sulfuric acid prices, the upstream smelting profit also rebounded [25]. 3.2.3 Electrolytic Copper Stockpiling - On November 27, Mysteel's social inventory of electrolytic copper was 171,600 tons, a weekly decrease of 20,500 tons, while the inventory in COMEX + LME was 574,800 tons, a weekly increase of 18,400 tons [27]. 3.2.4 Downstream Primary Sector - As copper prices rose, the downstream market showed a situation of "not prosperous in the peak season", and the copper product start - up rate declined month - on - month in October. In November, the overall downstream entered the off - season, and copper prices remained high. It is expected that the downstream capacity utilization rate will remain at a low level in November [29]. 3.3 Aluminum 3.3.1 Quantity - Price Trend - Last week, aluminum prices rebounded with a decrease in positions, and there was a trend of increasing positions and rising prices on Friday night. The decline in the Shanghai - LME ratio indicated that the rise was mainly led by the external market. Technically, attention can be paid to the pressure at the 22,000 mark [7][63]. 3.3.2 Upstream Industrial Chain - On November 21, the port inventory of bauxite was 28.0705 million tons, an increase of 46,900 tons from the previous week and an increase of 9.7005 million tons compared with the same period in 2024. Last week, alumina was weak, with the main contract price falling below the 2700 mark, while aluminum prices rose with the non - ferrous metal sector, and the profit of upstream electrolytic aluminum widened [45][47]. 3.3.3 Slowing Depletion of Electrolytic Aluminum - In November, as aluminum prices continued to rise, overseas electrolytic aluminum showed a stockpiling trend, and the depletion of domestic electrolytic aluminum social inventory slowed down. On November 27, Mysteel's social inventory of electrolytic aluminum was 590,000 tons, a decrease of 14,000 tons from the previous week, and the overseas electrolytic aluminum inventory was 544,700 tons, a decrease of 28,000 tons from the previous week [50]. 3.3.4 Downstream Primary Sector - Last week, the processing fee of aluminum rods generally declined from a high level, mainly due to the rebound of aluminum prices, which led to a decrease in downstream demand. The inventory of aluminum rods remained at a low level, with the in - factory inventory at 91,400 tons, a slight increase of 2,900 tons from the previous week [56][59].

有色贵金属与新能源团队 | 作者： | 杨莉娜 | | --- | --- | | 从业资格证号： | F0230456 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0002618 | | 联系方式： | 010-68573781 | | 作者： | 胡彬 | | 从业资格证号： | F0289497 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0011019 | | 联系方式： | 010-68576697 | | 作者： | 梁海宽 | | 从业资格证号： | F3064313 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0015305 | | 联系方式： | 010-68518650 | 期货研究院 有色金属日度策略 Metal Futures Daily Strategy 摘要 铜： 近期美联储集体转鸽，美国9月零售数据不及预期，市场对美联储1 2月降息预期再度升温。美国政府结束停摆，后续美元流动性有望 改善。美国总统特朗普11月24日签署行政令，正式启动代号为"创 世使命"的国家级人工智能计划，打开了市场对未来美国铜需求增 长的想象空间。基本面方面，铜管需求和产量旺季不旺，前期铜价 上涨一定程度抑制下游采购需求，但当前下游对高铜价的接受度开 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment ratings in the given content. Core Views of the Report Tin - Short - term macro fluctuations are large, but considering the strong fundamentals, maintain a bullish view on tin prices. Hold existing long positions and monitor macro changes and the recovery of supply from Myanmar [3]. Zinc - The supply - side pressure has eased, and the demand side has shown a structural improvement. Zinc prices are expected to fluctuate, with the main contract reference range of 22,200 - 22,800 [7]. Copper - In the medium - to - long - term, the supply - demand contradiction supports the upward movement of the copper price bottom. Pay attention to macro drivers such as overseas interest - rate cut expectations, with the main contract reference range of 85,500 - 86,800 [9]. Nickel - The macro situation is temporarily stable, and the fundamentals remain weak. However, the price may fluctuate and recover due to upstream production cuts and low valuations. The medium - term supply surplus still restricts the upside potential. The main contract reference range is 116,000 - 120,000 [13]. Stainless Steel - The policy - driven effect is difficult to be directly transmitted in the short term, the cost support is weakening, and the fundamentals have not improved significantly. The short - term price is expected to be weak, with the main contract reference range of 12,200 - 12,600 [15][16]. Aluminum - Alumina is expected to maintain a bottom - oscillating trend, with the main contract reference range of 2,700 - 2,850 yuan/ton. Aluminum prices are expected to remain high and oscillate, with the main contract reference range of 21,100 - 21,700 yuan/ton [17]. Aluminum Alloy - The ADC12 price is expected to maintain an oscillating pattern in the short term, with the main contract reference range of 20,300 - 20,900 yuan/ton [18]. Industrial Silicon - The supply and demand are both decreasing, and there is a pressure for inventory accumulation. The price is expected to oscillate at a low level, with the main price fluctuation range of 8,500 - 9,500 yuan/ton [19]. Lithium Carbonate - The short - term price is expected to maintain a weak oscillating adjustment, with the main contract reference range of 86,000 - 90,000 [20]. Polysilicon - Maintain the expectation of high - level range oscillations. For futures, consider going long around 50,000; for options, hold or close sell put positions, and consider buying straddles if volatility decreases [22]. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Tin - **Spot Prices and Basis**: SMM 1 tin and Yangtze 1 tin prices increased by 0.76% and 0.75% respectively. The LME 0 - 3 spread rose by 0.71%. The import loss decreased by 3.21%. Some month - to - month spreads changed significantly [2]. - **Fundamentals**: In October, tin ore imports increased by 33.49%, SMM refined tin production increased by 53.09%, refined tin imports decreased by 58.55%, and exports decreased by 15.33%. The average SMM refined tin operating rate increased by 53.23% [2]. - **Inventory**: SHEF inventory decreased by 0.46%, social inventory increased by 2.83%, SHEF warrants decreased by 0.37%, and LME inventory remained unchanged [3]. Zinc - **Prices and Spreads**: SMM 0 zinc ingot prices decreased by 0.27%. Some month - to - month spreads decreased. The import loss increased, and the Shanghai - London ratio decreased [7]. - **Fundamentals**: In October, refined zinc production increased by 2.85%, imports decreased by 16.94%, and exports increased by 243.79%. The operating rates of some primary processing industries changed slightly [7]. - **Inventory**: China's seven - region zinc ingot social inventory decreased by 3.58%, and LME inventory increased by 0.21% [7]. Copper - **Prices and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper and other copper prices increased slightly. The import loss increased, and the Shanghai - London ratio decreased [9]. - **Fundamentals**: In October, electrolytic copper production decreased by 2.62%, and imports decreased by 15.61%. The operating rate of electrolytic copper rod production increased, while that of recycled copper rod production decreased [9]. - **Inventory**: Domestic mainstream port copper concentrate inventory increased by 8.80%, and some other inventories changed slightly [9]. Nickel - **Prices and Basis**: Prices of various nickel products increased slightly. The LME 0 - 3 spread increased by 3.38%, and the import loss increased by 5.36% [13]. - **Cost**: The cost of integrated MHP production of electrowon nickel decreased by 4.84%, while that of integrated high - grade nickel matte production increased by 3.75% [13]. - **Supply and Inventory**: China's refined nickel production increased by 0.84%, imports decreased by 65.66%. SHFE inventory decreased by 1.92%, and social inventory decreased by 1.61% [13]. Stainless Steel - **Prices and Spreads**: The prices of some stainless steel products decreased slightly. Some month - to - month spreads changed [15]. - **Fundamentals**: China's 300 - series stainless steel crude steel production decreased by 0.72%, and exports decreased by 14.43% [15]. - **Inventory**: 300 - series social inventory and SHFE inventory decreased slightly [15]. Aluminum - **Prices and Spreads**: SMM A00 aluminum prices decreased by 0.09%. The import loss increased, and the Shanghai - London ratio decreased [17]. - **Fundamentals**: In October, alumina production increased by 2.39%, electrolytic aluminum production increased by 3.52%, imports increased by 0.61%, and exports decreased by 15.18% [17]. - **Inventory**: China's electrolytic aluminum social inventory decreased by 5.11%, and LME inventory decreased by 0.37% [17]. Aluminum Alloy - **Prices and Spreads**: SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 prices remained stable in most regions. Some month - to - month spreads changed [18]. - **Fundamentals**: In October, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots decreased by 2.42%, and that of primary aluminum alloy ingots increased by 1.06% [18]. - **Inventory**: The weekly social inventory of recycled aluminum alloy ingots increased by 1.44%, and some daily inventories decreased [18]. Industrial Silicon - **Spot Prices and Basis**: The prices of various industrial silicon products decreased slightly. Some month - to - month spreads changed significantly [19]. - **Fundamentals**: National industrial silicon production increased by 7.46%, mainly due to the increase in Xinjiang. Exports decreased by 35.82% [19]. - **Inventory**: Xinjiang factory inventory increased by 4.42%, and social inventory increased by 0.37% [19]. Lithium Carbonate - **Prices and Basis**: SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate and industrial - grade lithium carbonate prices decreased slightly. Some month - to - month spreads decreased significantly [20]. - **Fundamentals**: In October, lithium carbonate production increased by 5.73%, demand increased by 8.70%, imports increased by 21.86%, and exports increased by 63.05% [20]. - **Inventory**: Total lithium carbonate inventory decreased by 10.90%, downstream inventory decreased by 13.50%, and smelter inventory decreased by 6.03% [20]. Polysilicon - **Prices and Spreads**: Polysilicon spot prices stabilized with a slight decrease, silicon wafer prices decreased, and component prices increased slightly. The futures price oscillated, and the spread structure was in a backwardation [22]. - **Fundamentals**: Weekly polysilicon production increased by 1.12%, and monthly production increased by 3.08%. Imports increased by 11.96%, and exports decreased by 27.99% [22]. - **Inventory**: Polysilicon inventory increased by 1.50%, and silicon wafer inventory increased by 1.63%. Polysilicon warrants decreased by 3.07% [22].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide a unified industry - wide investment rating. Instead, it gives specific investment suggestions for different metals: - Copper: Suggests waiting and seeing or trading in a light - position range [3] - Aluminum: Recommends waiting and seeing [3] - Zinc: Advises range trading [3] - Lead: Recommends range trading and being cautious and bearish [3] - Nickel: Suggests cautious short - holding or waiting and seeing [4] - Stainless steel: Recommends waiting and seeing [4] - Tin: Advises cautious range trading [4] - Industrial silicon: Recommends waiting and seeing [4] - Polysilicon: Suggests low - buying and high - selling [4] - Lithium carbonate: Recommends exiting and waiting and seeing [4] 2. Report's Core View - The macro - environment has a significant impact on metal prices. For example, the uncertainty of the Fed's policy and geopolitical conflicts affect market sentiment. At the same time, the fundamentals of supply and demand also play a crucial role in determining metal prices. Some metals are facing supply - side challenges such as production cuts or disruptions, while others are affected by changes in downstream demand. Overall, the market is complex and volatile, and different metals show different trends and investment opportunities [3][4]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Metals Market Analysis 3.1.1 Copper - Price trend: The Shanghai copper main contract continues to show a high - level volatile pattern. In the short term, it will remain at 85,000 - 88,000. The long - term demand outlook is optimistic, but in the short term, it is necessary to be vigilant about the suppression of consumption by high copper prices and the pressure brought by changes in the Fed's policy expectations [3]. - Fundamentals: Market consumption has improved recently, and social inventories have declined. The focus has shifted to the long - term contract negotiation of mines. Freeport - McMoRan plans to resume large - scale production in the Grasberg mine in Indonesia in the second quarter of 2026, which is expected to ease the anxiety about mine - end supply [3]. 3.1.2 Aluminum - Price trend: The price has fallen from a high level. The aluminum price is expected to fluctuate at the current position. - Fundamentals: The price of bauxite in Shanxi and Henan is stable, while the price of imported bauxite in Guinea has decreased. The operating capacity of alumina has increased, and the inventory has also increased. The operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum remains unchanged. Some enterprises have carried out production reduction and technological transformation. The downstream demand is gradually entering the off - season, and the inventory of aluminum ingots has decreased slightly [3]. 3.1.3 Zinc - Price trend: The zinc price has fluctuated weakly in the range of 22,000 - 22,800 yuan/ton. - Fundamentals: The processing fees of domestic and imported zinc mines have continued to decline, and there are expectations of production cuts. Terminal consumption is weak, and the inventory is still at a high level [3]. 3.1.4 Lead - Price trend: The Shanghai lead main contract shows a bearish trend and is expected to fluctuate weakly after a rapid decline. The reference range is 16,800 - 17,300 yuan/ton. - Fundamentals: The supply of Shanghai lead has decreased, and the prices of lead concentrate, lead ingots, and waste batteries have all declined. With the completion of the first large - capacity all - solid - state battery production line in China, the market is affected [3]. 3.1.5 Nickel - Price trend: The price has declined widely and is expected to continue to decline. - Fundamentals: The global refined nickel has continued to accumulate inventory. The price of nickel ore is stable, the price of nickel iron has declined, and the pattern of nickel iron surplus continues. The downstream stainless steel is in the off - season, with weak demand and continuous increase in inventory. The price of nickel sulfate has slightly declined, and the demand is weak [4]. 3.1.6 Tin - Price trend: The price shows a high - level volatile pattern and is expected to rise overall. The reference range is 280,000 - 300,000 yuan/ton. - Fundamentals: The domestic refined tin production has increased year - on - year, and the import of tin concentrate has increased month - on - month. The export of refined tin in Indonesia has decreased. The semiconductor industry is expected to continue to recover, and the inventory is at a medium level. The supply of tin ore is expected to improve [4]. 3.1.7 Industrial Silicon and Related Products - Price trend: Industrial silicon is at high risk and is recommended to wait and see; polysilicon is recommended for low - buying and high - selling. - Fundamentals: The production of industrial silicon has decreased, and the inventory of polysilicon has increased. The production of organic silicon has increased, and enterprises have reached a price - holding consensus and formulated production - cut measures. The production of the photovoltaic industry chain is expected to decline slightly [4]. 3.1.8 Lithium Carbonate - Price trend: The price has risen and then fallen, and it is expected to fluctuate strongly. - Fundamentals: The supply of lithium carbonate is in a tight balance. The production in October has increased month - on - month, and the import has also changed. The downstream demand is strong, especially in the energy storage field. However, there are still uncertainties in the mining rights of Yichun mines [4]. 3.2 Macroeconomic Data - The report provides a series of macro - economic data, including the US economic data (such as the New York Fed manufacturing index, durable goods orders, unemployment rate, etc.), euro - zone inflation data, and China's loan market quotation rate (LPR). These data reflect the current economic situation of different regions and have an impact on the metal market [12][15][16].

Core Insights - The 2025 Sichuan-Shaanxi-Gansu-Chongqing Aluminum Industry Chain Collaborative Development Conference was held in Guangyuan, where 41 projects and agreements were signed, totaling an investment of 23.23 billion yuan [1] - The four regions jointly released an initiative for the collaborative development of the aluminum-based new materials industry chain, focusing on seven areas including innovation, digital transformation, green upgrades, and market expansion [1] - A pilot program for optimizing the inspection and supervision model for imported recycled aluminum raw materials was launched, aimed at enhancing the quality and development of the recycled aluminum industry in the region [1] Industry Overview - Guangyuan is recognized as a demonstration zone for high-performance industrial aluminum brands and is the only base city in Sichuan for developing aluminum-based new materials [1] - The city has positioned the aluminum-based new materials industry as its leading industrial sector, aiming to build "China's Green Aluminum Capital" with a complete industrial chain from green hydropower aluminum to deep processing and comprehensive utilization [1] - Guangyuan has an electrolytic aluminum production capacity of 615,000 tons, a recycled aluminum capacity of 1.6 million tons, and an aluminum processing capacity exceeding 2.2 million tons, leading the province in production scale, product variety, and technological equipment [1] - The aluminum industry in Guangyuan achieved an output value of 34.4 billion yuan from January to September this year [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views of the Report - For alumina, the fundamentals may be in a stage where supply is slightly convergent and demand is generally stable. The current oversupply situation may improve with production control. It is recommended to conduct short - term long trades at low prices with a light position, while controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2]. - For electrolytic aluminum, the fundamentals may be in a stage of temporary supply - demand stability with a slight accumulation of social inventory. The option market sentiment is bullish, and it is recommended to conduct light - position oscillatory trades, controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2]. - For cast aluminum alloy, the fundamentals may be in a stage of convergent supply and slightly reduced demand. It is recommended to conduct light - position oscillatory trades, controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The spread between the main and second - consecutive contracts of Shanghai aluminum decreased by 5 yuan/ton to - 60 yuan/ton, and that of alumina increased by 5 yuan/ton to - 59 yuan/ton [2]. - The closing price of the Shanghai aluminum main contract decreased by 40 yuan/ton to 21,530 yuan/ton, and that of the alumina futures main contract decreased by 8 yuan/ton to 2,732 yuan/ton [2]. - The position of the Shanghai aluminum main contract decreased by 9,251 lots to 338,582 lots, and that of alumina decreased by 14,819 lots to 411,305 lots [2]. - The LME aluminum canceled warrants remained unchanged at 55,300 tons, and the total alumina inventory remained unchanged at 253,654 tons [2]. - The LME three - month electrolytic aluminum quotation increased by 25 dollars/ton to 2,814.5 dollars/ton, and the LME aluminum inventory decreased by 2,000 tons to 546,075 tons [2]. - The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai aluminum decreased by 12,952 lots to 4,291 lots, and the Shanghai - London ratio decreased by 0.08 to 7.65 [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of Shanghai Non - ferrous A00 aluminum increased by 20 yuan/ton to 21,570 yuan/ton, and the alumina spot price in Shanghai Non - ferrous decreased by 5 yuan/ton to 2,770 yuan/ton [2]. - The average price of ADC12 aluminum alloy ingots in the country remained unchanged at 21,450 yuan/ton, and the price of Yangtze River Non - ferrous AOO aluminum increased by 30 yuan/ton to 21,560 yuan/ton [2]. - The basis of cast aluminum alloy decreased by 40 yuan/ton to 670 yuan/ton, and the basis of electrolytic aluminum increased by 60 yuan/ton to 40 yuan/ton [2]. - The Shanghai Wuma aluminum premium decreased by 10 yuan/ton to - 10 yuan/ton, and the LME aluminum premium increased by 2.93 dollars/ton to - 32.88 dollars/ton [2]. - The basis of alumina increased by 3 yuan/ton to 38 yuan/ton [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The price of pre - baked anodes in the northwest region remained unchanged at 5,780 yuan/ton, and the alumina production decreased by 13.40% to 786.50 million tons [2]. - The demand for alumina in the electrolytic aluminum part decreased by 21.49 million tons to 704.31 million tons, and the supply - demand balance of alumina increased by 18.12 million tons to 46.85 million tons [2]. - The average price of crushed raw aluminum in Foshan metal scrap increased by 100 yuan/ton to 16,950 yuan/ton, and the import quantity of aluminum scrap and scraps in China increased by 2,945.61 tons to 158,360.01 tons [2]. - The average price of crushed raw aluminum in Shandong metal scrap remained unchanged at 16,550 yuan/ton, and the export quantity of aluminum scrap and scraps in China decreased by 36.08 tons to 32.46 tons [2]. - The export quantity of alumina decreased by 7.00 million tons to 18.00 million tons, and the WBMS aluminum supply - demand balance increased by 1.45 million tons to - 10.54 million tons [2]. - The import quantity of alumina increased by 12.93 million tons to 18.93 million tons, and the electrolytic aluminum social inventory increased by 3.10 million tons to 59.70 million tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The import quantity of primary aluminum increased by 4,462 tons to 248,261.37 tons, and the total electrolytic aluminum production capacity remained unchanged at 4,523.20 million tons [2]. - The export quantity of primary aluminum decreased by 4,396.36 tons to 24,573.56 tons, and the electrolytic aluminum operating rate decreased by 0.12% to 98.24% [2]. - The production of aluminum products decreased by 20.60 million tons to 569.40 million tons, and the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots decreased by 4.82 million tons to 60.83 million tons [2]. - The export quantity of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products decreased by 2.00 million tons to 50.00 million tons, and the export quantity of aluminum alloy increased by 0.74 million tons to 3.09 million tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream and Application - The total built - in production capacity of recycled aluminum alloy ingots remained unchanged at 126.00 million tons, and the National Housing Prosperity Index decreased by 0.34 to 92.43 [2]. - The production of aluminum alloy remained unchanged at 168.20 million tons [2]. - The automobile production increased by 5.25 million vehicles to 327.90 million vehicles [2]. 3.6 Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai aluminum decreased by 0.07% to 11.80%, and the 40 - day historical volatility of Shanghai aluminum decreased by 0.03% to 10.24% [2]. - The implied volatility of the at - the - money option of the Shanghai aluminum main contract decreased by 0.0044% to 10.51%, and the call - put ratio of Shanghai aluminum options increased by 0.0408 to 1.41 [2]. 3.7 Industry News - The Fed's October policy meeting minutes showed that there was a serious divergence among policymakers when cutting interest rates last month. Many officials thought it might be appropriate to keep interest rates unchanged in the remaining time of 2025, while some believed another rate cut in December was likely appropriate. Almost all agreed to stop the quantitative tightening (QT) of reducing the balance sheet [2]. - As of the end of October, the total number of electric vehicle charging infrastructure (guns) in China reached 18.645 million, a year - on - year increase of 54.0%. Among them, the number of public charging facilities (guns) was 4.533 million, a year - on - year increase of 39.5% [2]. - Vice - Premier Zhang Guoqing investigated the digital and intelligent transformation and upgrading of the manufacturing industry and the innovation and development of state - owned enterprises in Guizhou and Chongqing, emphasizing accelerating the transformation and upgrading, promoting innovation, and developing new quality productivity [2]. - The 8th China International Photovoltaic and Energy Storage Industry Conference issued the "Chengdu Declaration", advocating promoting the optimization of production capacity structure and building a collaborative development ecosystem [2].

Group 1 - The Yellow Bucket to Baise Railway is a significant project under the Western Land-Sea New Corridor, with over 4.5 billion yuan invested in the Guangxi section, aiming for completion and operation by 2028 [2] - The Baise High-tech Zone's Rongrong New Materials Technology (Guangxi) Co., Ltd. is expected to become the world's largest continuous fiber monomer factory for alumina, focusing on research and development to enhance product value and competitiveness [3] - Guangxi Zhihua Communication Technology Co., Ltd. produces optical fiber products primarily for overseas markets and has created approximately 1,300 jobs through its "employment assistance workshop" [3] Group 2 - The emphasis on the integration of the aluminum industry for transformation and upgrading, with a focus on attracting high-quality upstream and downstream enterprises to promote high-end, intelligent, and green development [3] - The need for the Baise city to implement the spirit of the 20th Central Committee and focus on building both political and natural ecological systems while maintaining strict party governance [4] - The call for innovation and practical efforts to foster new business models and dynamics, ensuring the completion of annual targets and laying a solid foundation for the 14th Five-Year Plan [4]