◆ 基本面分析 几内亚散货矿主流成交价格周度环比下降0.8美元/干吨至72.5美元/干吨。几内亚雨季结束，且氧化铝价格走弱，施压矿价下行。 氧化铝运行产能周度环比下降140万吨至9715万吨，全国氧化铝库存周度环比增加11.5万吨至401.7万吨。上半年新投产的氧化铝 产能进入稳产状态，但国产矿石供应问题和氧化铝价格低迷的影响下，部分内陆氧化铝企业检修或压产。电解铝运行产能周度环比 下降2万吨至4443.4万吨。山西朔州能源开始对部分电解槽进行停槽技改升级，涉及产能4万吨左右。需求方面，国内铝下游加工 龙头企业开工率周度环比持稳于62.5%。旺季需求表现偏弱，叠加铝价高位，抑制了下游各加工板块开工上升。库存方面，铝锭 社会库存去化幅度较好。再生铸造铝合金方面，废铝流通偏紧、价格高企，而终端需求复苏不及预期，再生铝企业开工率下调。特 朗普关税或是为中美元首10月APEC会晤添加筹码，同时美联储10月降息时点即将来临，在此期间仍然建议逢低布局多单，在关 注关税进展和市场情绪。 ◆ 策略建议 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字[2014]1号 2025-10-20 【产业服务总部 | 有色金属团队】 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings were provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Tin - Supply is tight with low processing fees and uncertain Myanmar supply; demand is weak, and short - term macro - perturbations are expected. Consider buying on macro - sentiment drops. The future price depends on Myanmar's supply recovery [2]. Aluminum Alloy - Cost support is strong, supply has potential pressure, demand is moderately recovering, and inventory is showing a downward trend. ADC12 prices are expected to remain high and fluctuate in the short term [3]. Alumina - The market is in an oversupply situation, with cost support weakening and demand remaining sluggish. Spot prices are expected to remain under pressure, and the main contract may fluctuate in the range of 2750 - 2950 yuan/ton [4]. Aluminum - The macro environment is favorable, and the fundamentals are in a tight - balance state. High prices are suppressing downstream procurement. Aluminum prices are expected to remain high and fluctuate in the short term [4]. Nickel - Macro risks are increasing, there is some positive news in the ore sector, and inventory is accumulating. The price is expected to fluctuate within a range [5]. Stainless Steel - Macro risks are magnified, raw material prices are firm, but downstream demand fails to meet expectations, and inventory is under pressure. The short - term price is expected to be weak and fluctuate [7]. Lithium Carbonate - The supply path is becoming clear, demand in the peak season is strong, and inventory is decreasing. The short - term price is expected to be strong [10]. Copper - High copper prices are suppressing demand. Macro factors and supply shortages will influence the price. The long - term supply shortage will support the price, and the main contract should pay attention to the 84000 - 85000 support level [12][14]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Tin Price and Spread - SMM 1 tin decreased by 0.18% to 281200 yuan/ton; LME 0 - 3 spread decreased by 15.05% to - 130.01 dollars/ton [2]. Fundamental Data - August tin ore imports decreased by 0.11%; September SMM refined tin production decreased by 31.71% [2]. Inventory - SHEF inventory decreased by 8.55% to 5879 tons; social inventory decreased by 1.32% to 7786 tons [2]. Aluminum Alloy Price and Spread - SMM ADC12 prices remained unchanged; some scrap - to - refined aluminum price spreads increased [3]. Fundamental Data - September recycled aluminum alloy ingot production increased by 7.48% to 66.10 million tons; August primary aluminum alloy ingot production increased by 1.88% to 27.10 million tons [3]. Inventory - Recycled aluminum alloy ingot social inventory decreased by 2.84% to 5.48 million tons [3]. Alumina Price and Spread - SMM A00 aluminum increased by 0.14% to 20950 yuan/ton; alumina prices in various regions decreased [4]. Fundamental Data - September alumina production decreased by 1.74% to 760.37 million tons; September electrolytic aluminum production decreased by 3.16% to 361.48 million tons [4]. Inventory - Chinese electrolytic aluminum social inventory decreased by 3.39% to 62.70 million tons; LME inventory decreased by 0.73% [4]. Aluminum - Similar to the alumina section in price, spread, fundamental data, and inventory aspects [4]. Nickel Price and Spread - SMM 1 electrolytic nickel decreased by 0.12% to 122150 yuan/ton; some nickel ore and new - energy material prices changed [5]. Fundamental Data - Chinese refined nickel production increased by 1.26% to 32200 tons; refined nickel imports decreased by 3.00% [5]. Inventory - SHFE inventory increased by 1.75% to 29575 tons; social inventory increased by 7.02% to 43694 tons [5]. Stainless Steel Price and Spread - 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 roll) increased by 0.78% to 13000 yuan/ton; some raw material prices changed [7]. Fundamental Data - September 300 - series stainless - steel crude - steel production increased slightly; stainless - steel imports increased by 60.48% in August [7]. Inventory - 300 - series social inventory (Wuxi + Foshan) decreased by 0.56% to 50.18 million tons; SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 0.92% to 8.32 million tons [7]. Lithium Carbonate Price and Spread - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate remained unchanged at 73000 yuan/ton; some lithium raw material prices increased [10]. Fundamental Data - September lithium carbonate production increased by 2.37% to 87260 tons; demand increased by 12.28% [10]. Inventory - September lithium carbonate total inventory decreased slightly; downstream inventory increased by 15.29%, and smelter inventory decreased by 19.16% [10]. Copper Price and Spread - SMM 1 electrolytic copper decreased by 0.07% to 85175 yuan/ton; some spreads and premiums changed [12][14]. Fundamental Data - September electrolytic copper production decreased by 4.31% to 112.10 million tons; August electrolytic copper imports decreased by 10.99% [12][14]. Inventory - Domestic social inventory increased by 6.73% to 17.75 million tons; SHFE inventory increased by 15.42% to 10.97 million tons [12][14].

Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - The report analyzes the market conditions of various commodities, including energy, metals, chemicals, and agricultural products, and provides short - to medium - term outlooks and trading suggestions based on supply - demand relationships, geopolitical factors, and policy expectations [2][3][4] - Geopolitical factors such as the Russia - US summit, the US government shutdown, and Sino - US trade frictions have significant impacts on the market, causing price fluctuations and uncertainties [2][3][44] - Many commodities face challenges such as high inventory, weak demand, and supply - demand imbalances, which affect their price trends [37][38][40] Summary by Commodity Categories Energy - **Crude Oil**: Overnight futures prices declined. Geopolitical risks decreased, and Sino - US trade frictions and inventory increases put pressure on the market. The medium - term outlook is bearish [2] - **Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Geopolitical factors affected prices. High - sulfur fuel oil has short - term support but medium - term pressure, and low - sulfur fuel oil has a weak fundamental outlook [22] - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas**: Saudi's price forecast increased. In the traditional peak season, demand expectations are strong, and the market is gradually recovering from the low level [24] - **Asphalt**: Inventory decreased, and the supply - demand balance is tight. There is a slight inventory accumulation expectation at the end of 2025, and the support may weaken in the later Q4 [23] Metals - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver reached new highs. The US government shutdown and expected interest rate cuts support the long - term upward trend, but short - term volatility risks are high [3] - **Base Metals**: - **Copper**: Prices are expected to fluctuate temporarily, affected by trade tensions and inventory changes [4] - **Aluminum**: It is running strongly in the short term, testing the previous high resistance. The inventory is at a neutral level, and the supply - demand situation is relatively stable [5] - **Zinc**: LME inventory is low, and the decline has slowed. The domestic market has support at the bottom but lacks upward momentum, and it is expected to fluctuate in a range [8] - **Lead**: It is in a low - level and weak oscillation. The cost has strong support, and it is expected to fluctuate within a specific range [9] - **Nickel & Stainless Steel**: Nickel prices are weak, and the fundamentals of stainless steel are poor. The market is affected by macro - factors and inventory changes [10] - **Tin**: High - position short positions can be held. There are resistance levels at certain price points [11] - **Carbonate Lithium**: The price rebounds, and the market trading is light. It is in a low - level oscillation, waiting for a clear trend [12] - **Industrial Silicon**: The futures price rises slightly, and the spot is under pressure. It is expected to oscillate in the short term due to production and cost factors [13] - **Polysilicon**: The futures price rebounds, driven by policy expectations. There is a risk of a callback due to high inventory and uncertain policies [14] - **Iron Ore**: The supply is relatively stable, and the demand is in a recovery stage. The price is expected to oscillate at a high level [16] - **Coke & Coking Coal**: The prices are oscillating upward. The supply is abundant, and the downstream demand provides support. The market is affected by safety inspections and trade frictions [17][18] - **Manganese Silicon & Ferrosilicon**: The prices are oscillating. The demand is stable, and the supply is at a high level. They are affected by external trade frictions [19][20] Chemicals - **Urea**: The price is in a low - level oscillation. The supply is high, and the demand is weak. The market is expected to remain weak [25] - **Methanol**: The import supply in coastal areas has slowed down, and the inventory in production enterprises has increased. It is necessary to pay attention to port inventory and trade disputes [26] - **Pure Benzene**: The current fundamentals are good, but the price may be dragged down by falling oil prices. The industry valuation is low [27] - **Styrene**: The supply is sufficient, and the demand is uncertain due to high inventory and trade conflicts [28] - **Polypropylene, Plastic, & Propylene**: The supply is loose, and the demand is weak. The downstream is cautious in purchasing [29] - **PVC & Caustic Soda**: PVC supply is high, and the demand is weak. The export is under pressure. Caustic soda demand has improved, and the price decline is limited [30] - **PX & PTA**: PX supply is temporarily reduced, and PTA supply is expected to increase. The overall demand is expected to weaken [31] - **Ethylene Glycol**: The price is at the bottom of the range, and the market is affected by oil prices and trade relations [32] - **Short - Fiber & Bottle - Chip**: Short - fiber demand has improved, and bottle - chip has a good spot market but faces long - term over - capacity pressure [33] Agricultural Products - **Soybeans & Soybean Meal**: The supply is sufficient, and the inventory is high. The price is expected to oscillate downward if the Sino - US trade relationship does not improve [37] - **Edible Oils**: The market has certain resilience. Palm oil has a production reduction cycle, and domestic soybean oil has high inventory. It is recommended to buy at low prices after the price bottoms out [38] - **Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil**: The price is expected to oscillate in the short term. The inventory is decreasing slowly, and the trade relationship between China and Canada needs attention [39] - **Soybeans**: The price of domestic soybeans is strong, and the price of imported soybeans may be affected by demand [40] - **Corn**: The price is at the bottom and is expected to gradually approach the bottom [41] - **Pigs**: The futures price is at a low level, and the spot price is rebounding. The industry is in the process of capacity reduction, and the market has support in the medium - term [42] - **Eggs**: The spot price rebounds, and the futures price declines. There is a risk of further price decline in the medium - term [43] - **Cotton**: The price is oscillating. The new cotton cost provides support, but there is also hedging pressure. The demand is weak in the peak season [44] - **Sugar**: The international supply is sufficient, and the domestic production expectation is good. The price is affected by weather and production in different regions [45] - **Apples**: The price is oscillating. The supply is stable, and the inventory may be higher than expected, so the price faces pressure [46] - **Wood**: The supply is low, and the demand is weak. The inventory pressure is small. It is recommended to wait and see [47] - **Paper Pulp**: The supply is relatively loose, and the demand is average. The price is affected by inventory and overseas quotations [48] Others - **Shipping Index (European Line)**: The market is in a situation of weak reality and strong expectation, and the price is oscillating. The actual implementation of price increases needs to be observed [21] - **Stock Index**: The market is oscillating with volume contraction. The style may rotate, and it is recommended to increase the allocation of technology - growth sectors in the medium - term [49] - **Treasury Bonds**: The futures price rises, and the yield curve steepening may end. The market is expected to enter a repair stage [50]

Core Insights - The conference focused on the innovative development of the aluminum industry chain and the role of futures and options in driving high-quality growth [1][2] - The current challenges faced by the Chinese aluminum industry include tightening resource, energy, and environmental constraints, increased cost volatility, differentiated downstream demand, structural contradictions, and a severe international trade environment [1] - The introduction of casting aluminum alloy futures fills a gap in risk management for the downstream aluminum industry, enabling companies to transition from rough management to precise management [1] Group 1 - The speaker emphasized the need for companies to enhance their risk resistance through financial derivatives in response to multiple pressures [1] - The standardized delivery mechanism of futures contracts has led to the establishment of a quality pricing system based on ADC12, promoting resource concentration towards efficient and green enterprises [1] - The conference attracted nearly a hundred representatives from upstream and downstream aluminum industry companies, financial institutions, and industry associations, fostering active discussions and providing new ideas for high-quality development in the Central Plains region [2] Group 2 - The speaker detailed the practical applications of options, including call options, put options, and spread strategies, in cost locking, profit protection, and risk avoidance [2] - Futures and options are described as complementary risk management tools that together create a comprehensive risk management system across the entire aluminum chain [2] - The speaker called for industry chain enterprises to actively learn and utilize derivative tools to enhance competitiveness and shape a new global aluminum trade pattern centered around "Chinese pricing" [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The given reports do not mention any industry investment ratings. 2. Report's Core Views Copper - Copper prices were volatile yesterday, with high prices suppressing demand. Macro - factors like the approaching China - US tariff extension deadline and the weak US employment report could drive short - term trading. The supply shortage of copper mines will support copper prices in the long - term. The main contract is expected to find support between 84,000 - 85,000 yuan/ton [1]. Aluminum - The alumina market continued to be weak, and the aluminum market was in an oversupply situation. The spot price of aluminum is expected to remain under pressure, with the main contract oscillating between 2,750 - 2,950 yuan/ton. The Shanghai aluminum is expected to maintain a high - level oscillation between 20,700 - 21,300 yuan/ton, supported by macro - easing expectations and a tight - balance fundamentals, but high prices are suppressing downstream procurement [3]. Aluminum Alloy - The price of cast aluminum alloy futures oscillated, with the main contract slightly down. Cost support was prominent, but supply was restricted by raw material shortages and unclear policies. Demand was moderately recovering, and inventory was increasing, suppressing price increases. The ADC12 price is expected to maintain a high - level oscillation between 20,200 - 20,800 yuan/ton [4]. Zinc - Zinc prices oscillated, with pressure above. The supply - side logic of zinc has shifted from mines to zinc ingots. The increase in zinc ingot production is limited. Demand did not exceed expectations. The Shanghai zinc is expected to remain oscillating between 21,500 - 22,500 yuan/ton [7]. Tin - The supply of tin mines remained tight, while demand was weak. The short - term macro - volatility is expected to increase. Consider buying on dips due to macro - sentiment drops. The future trend of tin prices depends on the supply recovery in Myanmar in the fourth quarter [9]. Nickel - The Shanghai nickel market oscillated narrowly. Macro - risks increased, and there were some positive factors in the mining end, but the supply is expected to be loose in the medium - term, restricting price increases. The main contract is expected to oscillate between 120,000 - 126,000 yuan/ton [11]. Stainless Steel - The stainless - steel market oscillated weakly. Macro - risks increased, raw material prices were firm, but the peak - season demand was not met, and inventory pressure was high. The main contract is expected to oscillate between 12,400 - 12,800 yuan/ton [13]. Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate futures market oscillated. The supply - side situation was gradually becoming clear but with many uncertainties. Demand was robust, and the whole - chain inventory was decreasing. The short - term market is expected to oscillate, with the main contract price centered between 70,000 - 75,000 yuan/ton [17][19]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Copper Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic copper price decreased by 0.88% to 85,235 yuan/ton; SMM 1 electrolytic copper premium increased by 40 yuan/ton. Other copper varieties also showed price and premium changes [1]. Fundamental Data - In September, electrolytic copper production decreased by 4.31% to 112.10 million tons; in August, imports decreased by 10.99% to 26.43 million tons. Various inventory data also changed [1]. Aluminum Price and Spread - SMM A00 aluminum price increased by 0.10% to 20,920 yuan/ton; SMM A00 aluminum premium increased by 30 yuan/ton. Alumina prices in different regions decreased [3]. Fundamental Data - In September, alumina production decreased by 1.74% to 760.37 million tons; electrolytic aluminum production decreased by 3.16% to 361.48 million tons. Aluminum inventories also changed [3]. Aluminum Alloy Price and Spread - SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 prices in different regions decreased by 0.24%. Various scrap - to - refined price differences remained unchanged [4]. Fundamental Data - In September, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots increased by 7.48% to 66.10 million tons; the production of primary aluminum alloy ingots increased by 1.88% to 27.10 million tons. The开工 rate of different types of enterprises also changed [4]. Zinc Price and Spread - SMM 0 zinc ingot price decreased by 0.90% to 22,010 yuan/ton. The import loss decreased, and the monthly spread changed [7]. Fundamental Data - In September, refined zinc production decreased by 4.17% to 60.01 million tons; in August, imports increased by 43.30% to 1.79 million tons. The开工 rate of related industries and inventory data also changed [7]. Tin Spot Price and Basis - SMM 1 tin price decreased by 0.11% to 281,700 yuan/ton; SMM 1 tin premium remained unchanged. Other price and spread data also changed [9]. Fundamental Data - In September, SMM refined tin production decreased by 31.71% to 10,510 tons; in August, imports decreased by 40.19% to 1,296 tons. Inventory data also changed [9]. Nickel Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price increased by 0.16% to 122,300 yuan/ton. Various nickel - related prices and spreads changed [11]. Supply, Demand and Inventory - China's refined nickel production increased by 1.26% to 32,200 tons; imports decreased by 3.00% to 17,010 tons. Inventory data also changed [11]. Stainless Steel Price and Basis - The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) decreased by 0.39% to 12,900 yuan/ton. The futures - spot spread decreased by 8.11% [13]. Fundamental Data - In October, the production of 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel in China and Indonesia increased slightly. Import and export volumes, as well as inventory data, also changed [13]. Lithium Carbonate Price and Basis - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price remained unchanged at 73,000 yuan/ton. Various lithium - related prices and spreads changed [17]. Fundamental Data - In September, lithium carbonate production increased by 2.37% to 87,260 tons; demand increased by 12.28% to 116,801 tons. Inventory data also changed [17].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - There is no information provided regarding industry investment ratings in the reports. 2. Core Views Copper - Copper prices were volatile yesterday, with high prices suppressing demand. Macro factors include the approaching Sino - US tariff extension deadline and the unexpected decline in US ADP employment in September. Fundamentally, the shortage of copper ore supply is a long - term concern, and subsequent attention should be paid to demand changes and Sino - US tariff negotiations. The main support level is 84000 - 85000 yuan/ton [1]. Aluminum - The alumina market continued its weak operation, and the aluminum market remained in an oversupply situation, with spot prices expected to remain under pressure. The short - term main contract of aluminum may fluctuate in the 2750 - 2950 yuan/ton range. For aluminum, the price center of Shanghai aluminum futures has moved up, but high prices have suppressed spot purchases. The macro environment is favorable, and the fundamentals are in a tight - balance state. It is expected that Shanghai aluminum will maintain a high - level shock pattern in the short term, with the main contract reference range of 20700 - 21300 yuan/ton [3]. Aluminum Alloy - The price of cast aluminum alloy futures showed a volatile trend. Cost support is prominent, but supply is restricted by raw material shortages and unclear policies. Demand is in a mild recovery state, and inventories are accumulating. It is expected that the short - term ADC12 price will maintain a high - level shock, with the main contract reference range of 20200 - 20800 yuan/ton [4]. Zinc - Zinc prices were volatile, and there was still pressure above the price. Fundamentally, the supply - side logic has shifted from zinc ore to zinc ingots. The subsequent focus is on TC growth and inventory performance. In the short term, zinc prices may be driven up by macro factors but will likely maintain a shock pattern [7]. Tin - The supply of tin ore remains tight, while demand has not improved significantly. Considering the strong supply - side and macro - factor fluctuations, attention should be paid to buying opportunities when the macro - sentiment falls. The future trend of tin prices depends on the supply recovery in Myanmar in the fourth quarter [9]. Nickel - The Shanghai nickel market showed a narrow - range shock, and the market sentiment was weak. There are uncertainties in Sino - US tariffs and the Fed's interest - rate cut path. The supply of nickel ore is mixed, and the demand for stainless steel and nickel sulfate is not strong. It is expected that the market will fluctuate in the range of 120000 - 126000 yuan/ton [11]. Stainless Steel - The stainless - steel market maintained a weak shock, and traders were mainly waiting and watching. Macro factors have uncertainties, and raw - material prices are firm. The supply pressure is increasing, and the peak - season demand has not been realized. It is expected that the short - term market will be in a weak shock adjustment, with the main operation range of 12400 - 12800 yuan/ton [13]. Lithium Carbonate - The lithium - carbonate futures market was in an overall shock state. The supply - side has information uncertainties, while the demand is steadily optimistic. The fundamentals are in a tight - balance state during the peak season, and the whole - chain inventory is decreasing. It is expected that the short - term market will maintain a shock adjustment, with the main price center of 70000 - 75000 yuan/ton [17][19]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Copper Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic copper price was 85235 yuan/ton, down 0.88% from the previous day; the premium was 90 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan/ton. Other copper varieties also showed price changes [1]. Fundamental Data - In September, electrolytic copper production was 112.10 million tons, down 4.31% month - on - month; in August, imports were 26.43 million tons, down 10.99% month - on - month. The operating rates of copper rod production from electrolytic copper and recycled copper decreased [1]. Aluminum Price and Spread - SMM A00 aluminum price was 20920 yuan/ton, up 0.10% from the previous day; the premium was 30 yuan/ton. The prices of alumina in different regions showed a downward trend [3]. Fundamental Data - In September, alumina production was 760.37 million tons, down 1.74% month - on - month; electrolytic aluminum production was 361.48 million tons, down 3.16% month - on - month. The operating rates of aluminum profiles and cables decreased [3]. Aluminum Alloy Price and Spread - The price of SMM ADC12 aluminum alloy was 21000 yuan/ton, down 0.24% from the previous day. The month - to - month spreads showed different changes [4]. Fundamental Data - In September, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 66.10 million tons, up 7.48% month - on - month; the production of primary aluminum alloy ingots was 27.10 million tons, up 1.88% month - on - month. The operating rates of recycled and primary aluminum alloy increased [4]. Zinc Price and Spread - SMM 0 zinc ingot price was 22010 yuan/ton, down 0.90% from the previous day. The import loss decreased, and the month - to - month spreads changed [7]. Fundamental Data - In September, refined zinc production was 60.01 million tons, down 4.17% month - on - month; in August, imports increased by 43.30% month - on - month. The operating rates of galvanizing, die - casting zinc alloy, and zinc oxide decreased [7]. Tin Spot Price and Basis - SMM 1 tin price was 281700 yuan/ton, down 0.11% from the previous day; the premium remained unchanged. The LME 0 - 3 premium decreased [9]. Fundamental Data - In September, SMM refined tin production was 10510 tons, down 31.71% month - on - month; the average operating rate was 43.60%, down 31.77% month - on - month. The export volume of Indonesian refined tin in September increased by 50.00% [9]. Nickel Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price was 122300 yuan/ton, up 0.16% from the previous day. The import loss decreased, and the price of high - nickel pig iron decreased [11]. Fundamental Data - In September, China's refined nickel production was 32200 tons, up 1.26% month - on - month; imports were 17010 tons, down 3.00% month - on - month. Inventories in different regions changed [11]. Stainless Steel Price and Basis - The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) was 12900 yuan/ton, down 0.39% from the previous day. The prices of raw materials such as nickel ore and ferro - chrome showed different trends [13]. Fundamental Data - The production of 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel in China and Indonesia increased slightly in September. The import and export volumes of stainless steel changed, and the social inventory of 300 - series increased [13]. Lithium Carbonate Price and Spread - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate price remained unchanged at 73000 yuan/ton. The price of lithium hydroxide decreased slightly. The month - to - month spreads changed [17]. Fundamental Data - In September, lithium carbonate production was 87260 tons, up 2.37% month - on - month; demand was 116801 tons, up 12.28% month - on - month. The inventory in different links changed [17].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The alumina futures main contract is fluctuating weakly, with increasing open interest, spot premium, and strengthening basis. It is recommended to trade with a light - position range - bound strategy, controlling rhythm and trading risks [2]. - The Shanghai aluminum main contract opened lower and rebounded slightly, with decreasing open interest, spot premium, and weakening basis. It is advisable to conduct light - position short - term long trading on dips, controlling rhythm and trading risks [2]. - The cast aluminum main contract opened lower and rebounded slightly, with increasing open interest, spot premium, and weakening basis. It is suggested to conduct light - position short - term long trading on dips, controlling rhythm and trading risks [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Prices and Spreads**: The closing price of the Shanghai aluminum main contract is 20,910 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; the closing price of the alumina futures main contract is 2,797 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan. The main - second - consecutive contract spread of Shanghai aluminum is - 80 yuan/ton, down 45 yuan; that of alumina is - 6 yuan/ton, up 13 yuan [2]. - **Open Interest**: The open interest of the Shanghai aluminum main contract is 148,539 lots, down 10,640 lots; that of the alumina main contract is 361,466 lots, up 5,093 lots [2]. - **LME Data**: The LME aluminum cancelled warrants are 98,250 tons, unchanged; the LME electrolytic aluminum three - month quotation is 2,739.5 dollars/ton, down 17.5 dollars; the LME aluminum inventory is 503,950 tons, down 2,050 tons [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Aluminum Spot Prices**: The Shanghai Non - ferrous Network A00 aluminum price is 20,920 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market AOO aluminum price is 20,930 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan [2]. - **Alumina Spot Price**: The alumina spot price of Shanghai Non - ferrous is 2,865 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan [2]. - **Other Spot Data**: The average price of ADC12 aluminum alloy ingots nationwide is 21,050 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; the Shanghai Wumaotrade aluminum premium is 40 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan; the LME aluminum premium is 10.22 dollars/ton, down 11.03 dollars [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - **Alumina Production and Supply**: The alumina production is 792.47 million tons, up 35.98 million tons; the alumina capacity utilization rate is 86.74%, up 1.99 percentage points; the demand for alumina in the electrolytic aluminum part is 725.80 million tons, up 3.73 million tons; the supply - demand balance of alumina is 28.73 million tons, up 12.41 million tons [2]. - **Aluminum Scrap Trade**: The average price of crushed raw aluminum in Foshan metal scrap is 16,650 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; China's import volume of aluminum scrap is 172,610.37 tons, up 12,115.77 tons; the export volume is 53.23 tons, down 26.16 tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The total electrolytic aluminum capacity is 4,523.20 million tons, unchanged; the electrolytic aluminum production capacity in operation has increased slightly; the electrolytic aluminum open - rate is 98.27%, up 0.16 percentage points; the electrolytic aluminum social inventory is 60.40 million tons, up 1.00 million tons [2]. - **Aluminum Products**: The aluminum products production is 554.82 million tons, up 6.45 million tons; the export volume of unforged aluminum and aluminum products is 52.10 million tons, down 0.90 million tons; the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots is 65.65 million tons, up 2.06 million tons; the export volume of aluminum alloy is 2.91 million tons, up 0.42 million tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream and Application - **Automobile Production**: The automobile production is 275.24 million vehicles, up 24.21 million vehicles [2]. - **Real Estate Index**: The National Housing Prosperity Index is 93.05, down 0.28 [2]. 3.6 Alumina Viewpoint - **Fundamentals**: Affected by the reduced shipments in Guinea due to climate reasons, the domestic bauxite supply will continue to decline, and the bauxite price is firm. The alumina spot price is weakening, but smelters still have profit margins, so the supply remains stable. The increase in electrolytic aluminum operating capacity has a limited impact on alumina consumption [2]. - **Technical Analysis**: The 60 - minute MACD shows that the double lines are below the 0 - axis, and the red bars are expanding [2]. 3.7 Electrolytic Aluminum Viewpoint - **Fundamentals**: The supply of alumina is excessive, and its price is weakening. The domestic electrolytic aluminum operating capacity has increased slightly. With good profit margins for smelters, the supply of electrolytic aluminum is increasing slightly. The demand for downstream aluminum products is expected to improve after the holidays and due to policies [2]. - **Options**: The put - call ratio is 1.24, up 0.0405, indicating a bullish sentiment in the options market, and the implied volatility has slightly decreased [2]. - **Technical Analysis**: The 60 - minute MACD shows that the double lines are below the 0 - axis, and the red bars have just appeared [2]. 3.8 Casting Aluminum Alloy Viewpoint - **Fundamentals**: The cost of cast aluminum is rising due to the strong aluminum price and tight scrap aluminum supply, but the supply may decrease. The market consumption is gradually recovering after the holidays, but the spot purchase by downstream enterprises is cautious, and the inventory is accumulating [2]. - **Technical Analysis**: The 60 - minute MACD shows that the double lines are below the 0 - axis, and the red bars are slightly converging [2].

Core Insights - The conference focused on the integration of futures tools with the aluminum industry, highlighting the importance of risk management strategies in stabilizing operations and enhancing quality in the aluminum sector [1][2] Group 1: Industry Overview - The aluminum industry faces price volatility from upstream mining to downstream manufacturing, which poses uncertainties for business operations [1] - The introduction of casting aluminum alloy futures and options enhances the variety of futures products available, providing a "risk protection wall" for aluminum companies [1] Group 2: Financial Tools and Strategies - Companies can utilize hedging strategies to lock in production costs and sales profits, allowing them to focus on technological innovation and capacity optimization [1] - Experts discussed how derivative tools like aluminum futures and options can help industry players effectively manage price fluctuations and ensure stable operations [1][2]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Copper - Due to the easing of tariff concerns and the expectation of the Fed's monetary easing policy, the copper price showed a strong trend. The shortage of copper mine supply will support the copper price in the medium and long term. The follow - up should focus on the marginal changes in demand and the rhythm of Sino - US tariff negotiations, with the main support level at 84,000 - 85,000 [1]. Alumina - The spot price of alumina is under pressure. Although the current futures price is approaching the mainstream cost range, the upside needs external factors such as supply disturbances in Guinea, rising energy costs, or improved macro - sentiment. It is expected that the short - term spot price will remain under pressure, with the main contract oscillating between 2,800 - 3,000 yuan/ton [3]. Aluminum - The macro - level is favorable for the aluminum price, and the fundamentals are in a tight - balance pattern. The high aluminum price restricts downstream procurement, but the low inventory level reflects the resilience of demand. It is expected that the short - term Shanghai aluminum will maintain a high - level oscillation, with the main contract in the range of 20,700 - 21,300 yuan/ton [3]. Aluminum Alloy - The raw material supply and demand contradiction is unresolved, and the post - holiday demand is recovering steadily. The inventory accumulation trend is slowing down, which provides upward momentum for the price. It is expected that the short - term ADC12 price will maintain a high - level oscillation, with the main contract in the range of 20,200 - 20,800 yuan/ton [4]. Zinc - The supply of zinc is in a loose pattern, and the demand has no unexpected performance. The short - term price may rise due to macro - driving, but the fundamentals have limited support for the continuous rise. It is expected to maintain an oscillation, with the main contract in the range of 21,500 - 22,500 yuan/ton [8]. Tin - The supply of tin ore is tight, and the demand is weak. It is expected that the short - term tin price will continue to oscillate. The follow - up should focus on macro - level changes and the supply recovery in Myanmar in the fourth quarter [10]. Nickel - The macro - risk increases, and the cost has support, but the inventory accumulation has certain pressure. It is expected that the nickel price will oscillate strongly, with the main contract in the range of 120,000 - 126,000 yuan/ton [12]. Stainless Steel - The macro - risk is amplified, the raw material price is firm, and the cost support exists. However, the peak - season demand fails to meet expectations, and the inventory removal is under pressure. It is expected that the short - term stainless steel price will oscillate weakly, with the main contract in the range of 12,500 - 13,000 yuan/ton [13]. Lithium Carbonate - The macro - uncertainty increases, and the market atmosphere is weak. The supply path is gradually clear, and the peak - season demand and inventory reduction support the price. It is expected that the short - term lithium carbonate price will oscillate and consolidate, with the main price center in the range of 70,000 - 75,000 yuan [15]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Price and Spread - **Copper**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper price dropped to 85,045 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.89%. The SMM 1 electrolytic copper premium increased by 60 yuan/ton [1]. - **Alumina**: SMM A00 aluminum price dropped to 20,800 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.86%. The alumina prices in various regions generally declined [3]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The price of SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 dropped to 21,000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.47% [4]. - **Zinc**: SMM 0 zinc ingot price dropped to 22,200 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.45% [8]. - **Tin**: SMM 1 tin price dropped to 282,400 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.74% [10]. - **Nickel**: The price of 1 electrolytic nickel dropped, and the 1 Jinchuan nickel premium increased by 100 yuan/ton [12]. - **Stainless Steel**: The price of 304/2B stainless steel coil dropped to 13,000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.38% [13]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price dropped to 73,100 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.61% [15]. Fundamental Data Production and Import/Export - **Copper**: In September, the electrolytic copper production was 1.121 million tons, a decrease of 4.31%. In August, the import volume was 264,300 tons, a decrease of 10.99% [1]. - **Alumina**: In September, the alumina production was 7.6037 million tons, a decrease of 1.74%. The electrolytic aluminum production was 3.6148 million tons, a decrease of 3.16%. In August, the electrolytic aluminum import volume was 217,300 tons, a decrease of 31,000 tons [3]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: In September, the regenerated aluminum alloy ingot production was 661,000 tons, an increase of 7.48%. In August, the un - forged aluminum alloy ingot import volume was 71,000 tons, an increase of 2.60% [4]. - **Zinc**: In September, the refined zinc production was 600,100 tons, a decrease of 4.17%. In August, the import volume was 25,700 tons, an increase of 43.30% [8]. - **Tin**: In September, the SMM refined tin production was 10,510 tons, a decrease of 31.71%. In August, the refined tin import volume was 1,296 tons, a decrease of 40.19% [10]. - **Nickel**: The Chinese refined nickel production was 36,795 tons, an increase of 0.27%. The import volume was 17,010 tons, a decrease of 3.00% [12]. - **Stainless Steel**: The Chinese 300 - series stainless steel crude steel production was 1.7133 million tons, a decrease of 3.83%. The import volume was 117,200 tons, and the export volume was 447,900 tons [13]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: In September, the lithium carbonate production was 87,260 tons, an increase of 2.37%. The demand was 116,801 tons, an increase of 12.28%. In August, the import volume was 21,847 tons, an increase of 57.79% [15]. Inventory - **Copper**: The domestic social inventory increased to 1.72 million tons, an increase of 15.98%. The SHFE inventory increased to 1.097 million tons, an increase of 15.42% [1]. - **Alumina**: The Chinese electrolytic aluminum social inventory increased to 649,000 tons, an increase of 5.19% [3]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The social inventory of regenerated aluminum alloy ingots increased to 56,400 tons, an increase of 1.26% [4]. - **Zinc**: The Chinese zinc ingot seven - region social inventory increased to 163,100 tons, an increase of 15.35% [8]. - **Tin**: The SHFE inventory decreased to 5,879 tons, a decrease of 8.55%. The social inventory decreased to 7,786 tons, a decrease of 1.32% [10]. - **Nickel**: The SHFE inventory increased to 29,572 tons, an increase of 1.75%. The social inventory increased to 43,694 tons, an increase of 7.02% [12]. - **Stainless Steel**: The 300 - series social inventory (Wuxi + Foshan) increased to 504,600 tons, an increase of 6.93% [13]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The total lithium carbonate inventory in September was 665,376 tons, an increase of 0.38%. The downstream inventory increased to 60,919 tons, an increase of 15.29% [15].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The mainstream transaction price of Guinea's bulk bauxite decreased by $0.7 per dry ton to $73.3 per dry ton compared to before the holiday. The approaching end of the rainy season in Guinea and the weakening alumina price pressured the ore price down. The operating capacity of alumina remained stable at 98.55 million tons compared to before the holiday, and the national alumina inventory increased by 105,000 tons to 3.902 million tons on a weekly basis. The newly put - into - operation alumina capacity in the first half of the year has entered a stable production state, and the alumina industry is in a high - stable production situation. The operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum increased steadily, rising by 15,000 tons to 44.454 million tons compared to before the holiday. The second - phase 100,000 - ton capacity of the Baise Yinhai technical renovation project was restored, but the increase in the operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum in October was very limited. In terms of demand, the operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises decreased by 0.5% to 62.5% compared to before the holiday. Although the double - festivals affected the downstream start - up, the peak demand season remained unchanged, and the operating rates of various downstream processing sectors would continue to rise. In terms of inventory, the accumulation of aluminum ingot social inventory during the double - festivals was within the normal level and did not exceed expectations. For recycled cast aluminum alloys, the demand recovered rapidly after the holiday, leading enterprises had full orders, and the operating rate continued to rise. Trump's signal on China - related tariffs raised market panic, causing declines in the commodity and stock markets. The short - term aluminum price may continue to be under pressure and decline, and long - position holders should pay attention to risk avoidance. However, Trump may be adding bargaining chips for the China - US leaders' APEC meeting in October, and the progress of the event and market sentiment should be monitored [4]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Macro Economic Indicators - The document presents data on the US Treasury yield curve (10 - year and 2 - year yields), the US dollar index, the US 10 - year inflation - adjusted yield, and the exchange rate of the US dollar against the RMB (including the on - shore and off - shore exchange rates) [7][8]. 2. Bauxite - The supply of domestic bauxite is tightening, and the prices in Shanxi and Henan are temporarily stable. Stricter safety production supervision, enhanced environmental inspections, and the rainy season have restricted bauxite mining activities. Since mid - August, after the gradual consumption of domestic ore inventory, it has become a common practice in the industry for alumina plants to increase the use of imported ores. The mainstream transaction price of Guinea's bulk bauxite decreased by $0.7 per dry ton to $73.3 per dry ton. The large Guinea mining enterprises' long - term order quotes for the fourth quarter were slightly adjusted, with the FOB price reduced by $1 per dry ton compared to the third quarter. The sea freight is adjusted according to the oil price fluctuations, and the estimated CIF price is around $73 per dry ton [11]. 3. Alumina - As of last Friday, the built - up capacity of alumina was 114.62 million tons, unchanged from before the holiday, the operating capacity was 98.55 million tons, also unchanged from before the holiday, and the operating rate was 85.9%. The weighted price of domestic alumina spot was 2,937.7 yuan per ton, down 25.3 yuan per ton compared to before the holiday. The national alumina inventory was 3.902 million tons, an increase of 105,000 tons on a weekly basis. Newly put - into - operation capacity in Shandong, Guangxi, and other regions has entered a stable production state [15]. 4. Electrolytic Aluminum - As of last Friday, the built - up capacity of electrolytic aluminum was 45.232 million tons, unchanged from before the holiday, and the operating capacity was 44.454 million tons, an increase of 15,000 tons from before the holiday. Although the operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum increased steadily, the increase in October was expected to be very limited. On September 29, the second - phase 100,000 - ton capacity of the 200,000 - ton electrolytic aluminum energy - saving renovation project of Baise Guangtou Yinhai was successfully restored [24]. 5. Inventory - The document shows the historical data of social inventories of aluminum rods, aluminum ingots, Shanghai Futures Exchange aluminum futures inventories, and LME aluminum inventories from 2021 to 2025 [30][31][32][33]. 6. Cast Aluminum Alloy - The operating rate of leading recycled aluminum alloy enterprises increased by 2.3% to 58.9% compared to before the holiday. Four ministries and commissions jointly issued a notice to clean up local government's illegal tax rebates. The production arrangements of recycled aluminum enterprises during the holiday were relatively stable, and most enterprises did not stop production or only had a short - term shutdown of 1 - 3 days. The market demand recovered rapidly after the holiday, leading enterprises had full orders, especially for aluminum - water - based orders. However, downstream enterprises' procurement was still cautious, mainly focusing on consuming pre - holiday inventory and replenishing stocks as needed. Policy uncertainty and raw material shortage risks still restricted the start - up of some enterprises [38]. 7. Downstream Start - up - The operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises decreased by 0.5% to 62.5% compared to before the holiday. For aluminum profiles, the operating rate of leading enterprises decreased by 1% to 53.6%. The resumption of production of some enterprises in East and South China after the holiday was less than expected. In the industrial profile sector, some leading enterprises had good order arrangements for photovoltaic frames in early October; for automotive profiles, new orders remained stable. In the construction profile sector, the market demand was still weak. For aluminum strips, the operating rate of leading enterprises decreased by 1% to 68%. During the double - festivals, most leading enterprises maintained normal production. However, some enterprises producing building curtain wall panels had production line rotations or overhauls due to capital chain pressure and longer payment terms, while the demand for industrial plates such as automotive plates and battery shells was stable, and the production lines were basically operating at full capacity. For aluminum cables, the operating rate of leading enterprises decreased by 3% to 64%. Although leading enterprises maintained normal production during the holiday, most enterprises reduced their operating rates, and the restricted logistics during the double - festivals led to the backlog of finished product inventories. With the end of the holiday and the resumption of logistics, combined with the release of traditional rush - work demand in the fourth quarter, the operating rate is expected to rebound. For primary aluminum alloys, the operating rate of leading enterprises decreased by 0.4% to 58%. Some enterprises reduced their operating rates due to lower - than - expected downstream demand, and some enterprises maintained their original production rhythms due to unclear post - holiday order situations [51][55]. 8. Strategy Recommendations - Alumina: It is recommended to wait and see. - Shanghai Aluminum: Long - position holders should avoid risks. - Cast Aluminum Alloy: Long - position holders should avoid risks or go long on ADC and short on AL [5].