1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no clear industry investment rating provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - **Steel**: The rebar market shows weak consolidation. Production has dropped significantly, inventory is accumulating rapidly, and demand is decreasing. However, after a month - long decline, prices are at a relatively low level, and with macro - policy easing expectations and a strong overall commodity market, the downside space is limited. It is recommended that market participants hold light positions during the holiday [1]. - **Iron Ore**: The iron ore price will show an oscillating trend. Supply has decreased due to the impact of a hurricane in Australia, while demand has seen a slight increase in iron - water production. The inventory of imported iron ore at ports has decreased, and the inventory of steel mills has increased [1]. - **Coking Coal**: The coking coal market is expected to oscillate. Supply is limited as private coal mines are on holiday and state - owned mines focus on safety. Downstream demand is weakening as coking and steel enterprises slow down production and most coking enterprises have completed pre - holiday stockpiling [1]. - **Coke**: The coke market is likely to oscillate. The cost of coke has decreased due to the decline in raw coal prices, leading to an increase in supply. However, steel mills have basically completed winter stockpiling, and terminal demand is in the off - season, resulting in reduced procurement enthusiasm [1]. - **Manganese Silicon**: The manganese silicon futures price is expected to oscillate. The cost of manganese ore may rise after the holiday. Production has slightly decreased, demand support is limited, and inventory is at a high level [3]. - **Silicon Iron**: The silicon iron futures price is expected to oscillate. Supply is expected to remain stable during the Spring Festival. Market trading has become lighter, and inventory is at a medium - level [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Steel**: The rebar 2605 contract closed at 3050 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan/ton (0.13%) from the previous trading day, with a decrease of 34,000 lots in positions. National rebar production this week decreased by 225,200 tons to 1.6916 million tons, social inventory increased by 573,100 tons to 4.2323 million tons, factory inventory increased by 99,400 tons to 1.6359 million tons, and apparent demand decreased by 457,300 tons to 1.0191 million tons. The inventory accumulation this year is significantly greater than last year, and post - holiday inventory will face digestion pressure [1]. - **Iron Ore**: The iron ore futures main contract i2605 closed at 762 yuan/ton, down 0.5 yuan/ton (0.07%), with 110,000 lots in trading volume and a decrease of 9,000 lots in positions. Australian shipments decreased significantly due to the hurricane, global shipments dropped sharply. There were 8 new blast - furnace overhauls and 11 blast - furnace restarts. Iron - water production increased by 19,100 tons to 2.3049 million tons. The inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports decreased by 1.8256 million tons to 177.32 million tons, and the inventory of imported ore in steel mills continued to increase by 3.87 million tons [1]. - **Coking Coal**: The coking coal 2605 contract closed at 1120 yuan/ton, down 3.5 yuan/ton (0.31%), with a decrease of 17,938 lots in positions. The price of lean raw coal in Changzhi, Shanxi decreased by 45 yuan to 610 yuan/ton, and the price of Mongolian No. 5 raw coal at Ganqimaodu Port decreased by 3 yuan to 1015 yuan/ton [1]. - **Coke**: The coke 2605 contract closed at 1664 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan/ton (0.18%), with an increase of 280 lots in positions. The spot price of coke at ports remained stable, with the price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke at Rizhao Port at 1470 yuan/ton [1]. - **Manganese Silicon**: On Thursday, the manganese silicon futures price weakened oscillatingly, with the main contract closing at 5800 yuan/ton, down 0.45%. The positions of the main contract increased by 10,954 lots to 378,400 lots. The market price of 6517 manganese silicon in various regions is about 5570 - 5750 yuan/ton [3]. - **Silicon Iron**: On Thursday, the silicon iron futures price weakened oscillatingly, with the main contract closing at 5500 yuan/ton, down 1.47%. The positions of the main contract increased by 25,052 lots to 187,400 lots. The aggregated price of 72 silicon in various regions is 5250 - 5300 yuan/ton [3]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides data on contract spreads, basis, and spot prices for various black commodities such as rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and silicon iron, as well as information on profits and cross - variety spreads [4]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - **3.3.1 Main Contract Prices**: It includes price trend charts of main contracts for rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and silicon iron from 2021 to 2026 [6][7][8][9][10][11][12][13]. - **3.3.2 Main Contract Basis**: It shows basis trend charts of main contracts for rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and silicon iron [15][16][19][20][21][22]. - **3.3.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads**: It presents inter - period contract spread trend charts for rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and silicon iron [24][25][26][27][31][32][33][35][37]. - **3.3.4 Cross - variety Contract Spreads**: It includes cross - variety contract spread trend charts such as the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar, the ratio of rebar to iron ore, the ratio of rebar to coke, etc. [38][39][40][41][42]. - **3.3.5 Rebar Profits**: It shows trend charts of the rebar main - contract盘面 profit, long - process calculated profit, and short - process calculated profit [44][45][46][47]. 3.4 Black Research Team Members Introduction - The black research team includes Qiu Yuecheng, Zhang Xiaojin, Liu Xi, and Zhang Chunjie, each with their own professional backgrounds and qualifications [49][50].

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Metal Market - Domestic base metals experienced a general increase, with the exception of lead, which fell by 0.12%. Nickel led the gains with an increase of 1.79%, while other metals saw increases of less than 1% [1] - In the aluminum sector, alumina futures dropped by 0.35%, while casting aluminum futures rose by 0.47% [1] - Lithium carbonate futures increased by 3.66%, while industrial silicon futures fell by 0.42%, and polysilicon futures rose by 0.44% [1] - The European shipping index rose by 6.4% to 1258.9 [1] - In the black metal sector, iron ore, rebar, and stainless steel all saw declines of around 0.2%, with hot-rolled coil down by 0.31%. Coking coal fell by 0.53%, and coking coke dropped by 0.3% [1] - Internationally, base metals showed mixed results, with London aluminum up by 0.27% and lead up by 0.18%, while other metals experienced slight declines [1] - Precious metals saw COMEX gold down by 0.32% and silver down by 1.16%, while domestic gold rose by 0.03% and silver by 0.62% [1][2] Macro Environment - The State Administration for Market Regulation released guidelines for compliance in the automotive industry, highlighting significant legal risks associated with various pricing behaviors that could lead to below-cost pricing [5] - The National Energy Administration announced that by 2025, China's new wind and solar power installations are expected to exceed 430 million kilowatts, marking a 22% year-on-year increase [6][7] - The National Energy Administration emphasized the importance of developing new energy storage and future industries such as hydrogen and nuclear fusion energy [8] - The Ministry of Commerce announced that consumers purchasing new cars during the 2026 Spring Festival can apply for subsidies under the old-for-new vehicle policy [9] - The People's Bank of China conducted a net injection of 448 billion yuan through reverse repos, maintaining liquidity in the market [9]

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. Core Viewpoints - The black series is currently in a bottom - game stage with a mix of long and short factors. In the short term, it is likely to continue the weak and volatile pattern in the range, and the trend opportunity is not clear. Attention should be paid to inventory inflection points around the Spring Festival, the recovery intensity of plate demand, and marginal changes in "dual - carbon" related policies [3]. - For iron ore, it is expected to fluctuate weakly before the Spring Festival. Future focus should be on overseas ore shipping and domestic hot - metal production rhythm [5]. - For manganese silicon and ferrosilicon, in the long - term, it is believed that the commodity bulls will continue, but in the short term, the sharp adjustment of precious metals may suppress the market atmosphere. Future market drivers may come from the overall black market sentiment, cost - push from manganese ore for manganese silicon, and supply contraction (or contraction expectations) for ferrosilicon due to losses or "dual - carbon" policies [9][10]. - For coking coal and coke, although it is thought that coking coal may have a smooth upward trend in 2026, in the short term, the upward catalyst is not strong, and there may be a risk of price correction after the Spring Festival [15][17]. - For industrial silicon, it is expected to fluctuate weakly before the Spring Festival, with supply and demand both weak in February, and the upward driving force is insufficient [21]. - For polysilicon, the supply continues to decrease, the supply - demand relationship marginally improves, and the high inventory in the silicon material link is expected to be slightly reduced. The futures market is expected to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to the demand feedback and spot prices after the Spring Festival [23]. - For glass, it is expected to continue the volatile consolidation trend in the short term, with the reference range of the main contract being 1030 - 1120 yuan/ton [26]. - For soda ash, it is expected to continue the weak operation, with the reference range of the main contract being 1140 - 1230 yuan/ton [28]. Summary by Categories Steel Products Market Quotes - The closing price of the rebar main contract in the afternoon was 3054 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan/ton (0.065%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts on the day were 16,903 tons, a net increase of 1,193 tons. The open interest of the main contract was 2.0637 million lots, a net decrease of 1,877 lots. In the spot market, the aggregated price of rebar in Tianjin was 3150 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; the aggregated price in Shanghai was 3220 yuan/ton, also unchanged [2]. - The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3228 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan/ton (0.248%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts on the day were 276,419 tons, a net increase of 23,219 tons. The open interest of the main contract was 1.5524 million lots, a net increase of 9,529 lots. In the spot market, the aggregated price of hot - rolled coils in Lecong was 3250 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; the aggregated price in Shanghai was 3240 yuan/ton, also unchanged [2]. Strategy Viewpoints - The sentiment in the commodity market has recovered, but the prices of finished steel products have continued to be weak. In the short term, the new carbon - trading policy has limited direct impact on the steel supply - demand pattern, but it helps to raise the cost center and restrict the downward space of steel prices. Near the Spring Festival, the supply and demand of rebar have both declined seasonally, and the inventory has entered the accumulation stage, but the overall inventory - accumulation rhythm is still controllable; the demand for hot - rolled coils is relatively stable, the output has decreased slightly, and the inventory has also increased slightly, with the supply - demand structure being generally neutral [3]. Iron Ore Market Quotes - The main contract of iron ore (I2605) closed at 762.50 yuan/ton, with a change of +0.13% (+1.00). The open interest changed by - 6983 lots to 507,000 lots. The weighted open interest of iron ore was 867,900 lots. The PB powder at Qingdao Port was 767 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 51.70 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 6.35% [4]. Strategy Viewpoints - On the supply side, the overseas iron ore shipping volume has declined significantly in the latest period. The shipping volume from Australia has decreased sharply due to cyclones, and the shipping volume from Brazil has decreased slightly. The shipping volume from non - mainstream countries has remained basically stable, and the near - end arrival volume has decreased month - on - month. On the demand side, the average daily hot - metal output in the latest period was 228.58 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.6 tons, lower than expected. The port inventory has continued to increase and is at the highest level in the same period in the past five years, which exerts pressure on the absolute price. It is expected that the iron ore price will fluctuate weakly before the Spring Festival, and future focus should be on overseas ore shipping and domestic hot - metal production rhythm [5]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon Market Quotes - On February 11, the main contract of manganese silicon (SM605) closed up 0.10% at 5824 yuan/ton. In the spot market, the price of 6517 manganese silicon in Tianjin was 5720 yuan/ton, equivalent to 5910 yuan/ton on the futures surface, unchanged from the previous day, with a premium of 86 yuan/ton over the futures price. The main contract of ferrosilicon (SF605) closed down 0.07% at 5574 yuan/ton. In the spot market, the price of 72 ferrosilicon in Tianjin was 5700 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a premium of 124 yuan/ton over the futures price [8]. Strategy Viewpoints - In the long - term, it is believed that the commodity bulls will continue, but in the short term, the sharp adjustment of precious metals may suppress the market atmosphere. The supply - demand pattern of manganese silicon is still not ideal, but these factors may have been priced in. The supply - demand structure of ferrosilicon is basically balanced, and there is marginal improvement. Future market drivers may come from the overall black market sentiment, cost - push from manganese ore for manganese silicon, and supply contraction (or contraction expectations) for ferrosilicon due to losses or "dual - carbon" policies [9][10]. Coking Coal and Coke Market Quotes - On February 11, the main contract of coking coal (JM2605) closed up 0.40% at 1123.5 yuan/ton. In the spot market, the price of low - sulfur coking coal in Shanxi was 1550.6 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, and the spot price converted to the futures delivery price was 1360 yuan/ton, with a premium of 236.5 yuan/ton over the futures price; the price of medium - sulfur coking coal in Shanxi was 1270 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 10 yuan/ton, and the spot price converted to the futures delivery price was 1253.0 yuan/ton, with a premium of 129.5 yuan/ton over the futures price; the price of Mongolian 5 cleaned coal in Wubulangjinquan Industrial Park was 1227 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, and the spot price converted to the futures delivery price was 1202 yuan/ton, with a premium of 78.5 yuan/ton over the futures price. The main contract of coke (J2605) closed up 0.12% at 1667.0 yuan/ton. In the spot market, the price of quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke at Rizhao Port was 1470 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, and the spot price converted to the futures delivery price was 1725.5 yuan/ton, with a premium of 58.5 yuan/ton over the futures price; the price of quasi - first - grade dry - quenched coke in Lvliang was 1550 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, and the spot price converted to the futures delivery price was 1766 yuan/ton, with a premium of 99 yuan/ton over the futures price [12]. Strategy Viewpoints - Overseas coal - related disturbances have been frequent recently, and the sentiment is bullish, but it has no direct and substantial impact on the domestic coking coal market. The price of coking coal has fluctuated significantly due to the sharp rise and fall of precious metals. In the short term, the upward catalyst for coking coal prices is not strong, and there may be a risk of price correction after the Spring Festival. However, coking coal may have a smooth upward trend in 2026, especially during the period from June to October [15][17]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Market Quotes - For industrial silicon, the closing price of the main contract (SI2605) was 8370 yuan/ton, with a change of - 0.06% (- 5). The weighted contract open interest increased by 5762 lots to 424,194 lots. In the spot market, the price of non - oxygen - blown 553 industrial silicon in East China was 9200 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a basis of 830 yuan/ton for the main contract; the price of 421 industrial silicon was 9650 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, and the basis of the main contract after converting to the futures price was 480 yuan/ton [19]. - For polysilicon, the closing price of the main contract (PS2605) was 49180 yuan/ton, with a change of +0.47% (+230). The weighted contract open interest decreased by 700 lots to 65,128 lots. In the spot market, the average price of N - type granular silicon was 50 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous day; the average price of N - type dense material was 52.75 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous day; the average price of N - type re -投料 was 53.65 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous day. The basis of the main contract was 4470 yuan/ton [22]. Strategy Viewpoints - For industrial silicon, the supply and demand are both weak in February. The supply may shrink significantly, and the demand is also weak. It is expected to fluctuate weakly before the Spring Festival, and the upward driving force is insufficient [21]. - For polysilicon, the supply continues to decrease, the supply - demand relationship marginally improves, and the high inventory in the silicon material link is expected to be slightly reduced. The futures market is expected to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to the demand feedback and spot prices after the Spring Festival [23]. Glass and Soda Ash Market Quotes - For glass, the main contract closed at 1071 yuan/ton on Wednesday afternoon, up 0.09% (+1). The price of large - size glass in North China was 1030 yuan, unchanged from the previous day; the price in Central China was 1110 yuan, also unchanged. On February 5, the weekly inventory of float glass sample enterprises was 53.064 million boxes, a month - on - month increase of 0.5 million boxes (+0.95%). In terms of open interest, the top 20 long - position holders increased their long positions by 7689 lots, and the top 20 short - position holders increased their short positions by 14,869 lots [25]. - For soda ash, the main contract closed at 1178 yuan/ton on Wednesday afternoon, up 0.60% (+7). The price of heavy soda ash in Shahe was 1128 yuan, a month - on - month increase of 7 yuan. On February 5, the weekly inventory of soda ash sample enterprises was 1.5811 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 36,900 tons (+0.95%), including 746,100 tons of heavy soda ash, a month - on - month increase of 30,000 tons, and 835,000 tons of light soda ash, a month - on - month increase of 6900 tons. In terms of open interest, the top 20 long - position holders reduced their long positions by 5356 lots, and the top 20 short - position holders increased their short positions by 5814 lots [27]. Strategy Viewpoints - For glass, downstream processing enterprises are in the final stage, with weak purchasing willingness. The daily melting volume of glass is at a historical low, and there are still plans for cold - repair and transformation of production lines. It is expected to continue the volatile consolidation trend in the short term, with the reference range of the main contract being 1030 - 1120 yuan/ton [26]. - For soda ash, the demand for heavy soda ash is still weak, and the daily melting volumes of float glass and photovoltaic glass are at a low level. The market is in a weak and stable volatile state, and it is expected to continue the weak operation, with the reference range of the main contract being 1140 - 1230 yuan/ton [28].

Metal Market - Domestic base metals collectively rose, with nickel leading at a 4.02% increase and tin at 3.27% [1] - Lithium carbonate surged by 9.18% to 150,260 yuan/ton, while aluminum oxide fell by 0.28% [1][4] - In the black metal sector, stainless steel rose by 2.22%, while iron ore and rebar saw slight declines [1] - Internationally, base metals also experienced gains, with tin up by 2.17% and nickel by 1.6% [1][2] Precious Metals - COMEX gold increased by 1.09% and silver by 2.51%, while domestic gold and silver rose by 0.56% and 1.88% respectively [1][2] Macro Economic Indicators - The National Bureau of Statistics reported a 0.2% year-on-year increase in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for January, with the Producer Price Index (PPI) showing a 1.4% year-on-year decline [5] - The People's Bank of China conducted a net injection of 4.035 billion yuan through reverse repos [5] Currency and Oil Market - The US dollar index fell by 0.28% to 95.59, with expectations of lower non-farm payroll data putting pressure on the dollar [7] - Oil prices rose, with WTI up by 0.73% and Brent by 0.65%, supported by geopolitical uncertainties in the US and Iran [9]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - For steel, the spot market is closed during the holiday, and the futures price fluctuates weakly. The market's expectation for the post - holiday period is not ideal. It is recommended to wait and see for unilateral trading and conduct rolling operations for hot - rolled coil positive spreads. For large spot exposures, selling hedging or options can be used to reduce risks [2] - For ferrosilicon and silicomanganese, the supply - demand situation is weak. Policy and cost factors are favorable. It is recommended to hold an empty or light position during the long holiday due to many uncertainties [3] - For coking coal and coke, the market continues to weaken. It is recommended to cash in spot positions before the holiday and wait for opportunities to short on the futures market after the price rises [5] - For iron ore, the restocking is basically over, and the price will fluctuate before the holiday. It is recommended that long - term investors short at the pressure level [6] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - The spot market is closed during the approaching holiday, and the futures price fluctuates weakly, indicating a not - so - optimistic market expectation for the post - holiday period. The black market is less affected by the cooling of the commodity market. Traders are not willing to take open positions for winter storage and are more suitable to participate through basis trading. Before the holiday, it is recommended to wait and see for unilateral trading and conduct rolling operations for hot - rolled coil positive spreads. For large spot exposures, selling hedging or options can be used to reduce risks [2] Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - The downstream terminal demand is seasonally weak, and the direct demand is weak and stable. The alloy factory's profit is under pressure, and the production and start - up rate have decreased compared with the same period last year. The medium - term supply surplus pressure remains. Policy and cost factors are favorable, such as the increase in manganese ore prices and electricity price disturbances. It is recommended to hold an empty or light position during the long holiday [3] Coking Coal and Coke - The spot market trading is cold during the approaching holiday. The futures market of the black sector fluctuates weakly. The market is in the off - season, and the industrial data is weak. The downstream restocking is near the end. There is news about Indonesian production cuts, but the probability of substantial cuts is low, and it provides an opportunity for spot - futures positive spreads. It is recommended to cash in spot positions before the holiday and wait for opportunities to short on the futures market after the price rises [5] Iron Ore - The steel mill's restocking is basically over, and the restocking strength is not as strong as expected. The price will fluctuate before the holiday. After the holiday, the Australian weather may affect the supply rhythm, and the price impact is more likely to be a rebound followed by a better short - selling point. It is recommended that long - term investors short at the pressure level [6]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The current black series is in a bottom - game stage with a mix of long and short factors. In the short term, it will mainly operate in a weak range - bound oscillation, and the trend opportunity is not clear. Attention should be paid to inventory changes around the Spring Festival, the recovery of plate demand, and possible marginal adjustments to "dual - carbon" policies [2]. - For iron ore, it is expected to oscillate weakly before the festival. Attention should be paid to overseas ore shipments and the domestic hot - metal production rhythm [5]. - For manganese silicon and ferrosilicon, in the long - term, the bullish trend of commodities may continue, but short - term market sentiment is affected by the adjustment of precious metals. The future market is mainly affected by the overall market sentiment and cost - supply factors. Attention should be paid to possible changes in manganese ore and "dual - carbon" policies [9][10]. - For coking coal and coke, in the long - term, the bullish trend of commodities may continue, but in the short term, the market is affected by precious metals. The short - term upward catalytic force is not strong, and there may be a risk of price correction after the Spring Festival. It is expected to rise smoothly from June to October [15][16]. - For industrial silicon, it shows a pattern of weak supply and demand in February. It is expected to be weakly oscillating before the festival, and attention should be paid to market sentiment [19][20]. - For polysilicon, the supply is decreasing, the demand is stable, and the high inventory is expected to be slightly reduced. The futures are expected to oscillate, and attention should be paid to post - festival demand and spot prices [22]. - For glass, it is expected to continue to oscillate in the short term, with the reference range of the main contract being 1030 - 1120 yuan/ton [25]. - For soda ash, it is expected to continue to operate weakly, with the reference range of the main contract being 1140 - 1200 yuan/ton [27]. Summary by Directory Steel Products 1. Rebar - **Market Information**: The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3052 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan/ton (- 0.39%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 15710 tons, with no change from the previous day. The position of the main contract was 2.0655 million lots, an increase of 60036 lots. The Tianjin aggregated price was 3150 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai aggregated price was 3220 yuan/ton, both with no change [1]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Near the Spring Festival, both the supply and demand of rebar have shown obvious seasonal declines, and the inventory has entered the accumulation stage, but the overall inventory accumulation range is still controllable [2]. 2. Hot - Rolled Coil - **Market Information**: The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3220 yuan/ton, down 19 yuan/ton (- 0.58%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 253200 tons, an increase of 9424 tons. The position of the main contract was 1.5428 million lots, an increase of 43035 lots. The Lecong aggregated price was 3260 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai aggregated price was 3240 yuan/ton, both with no change [1]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The demand for hot - rolled coils is relatively stable, the output has decreased slightly, the inventory has accumulated slightly, and the supply - demand structure is generally neutral [2]. Iron Ore - **Market Information**: The main contract (I2605) of iron ore closed at 761.50 yuan/ton, with a change of + 0.00% (+ 0.00). The position changed by + 556 lots to 513900 lots. The weighted position was 878500 lots. The spot price of PB powder at Qingdao Port was 767 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 52.70 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 6.47% [4]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The overseas iron ore shipments have decreased significantly. The near - end arrivals have decreased. The daily hot - metal output is lower than expected, and the port inventory is at the highest level in the same period in the past five years. It is expected to oscillate weakly before the festival, and attention should be paid to overseas ore shipments and the domestic hot - metal production rhythm [5]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market Information**: On February 10, the main contract of manganese silicon (SM605) closed up 0.10% at 5818 yuan/ton. The spot price of 6517 manganese silicon in Tianjin was 5720 yuan/ton, with a basis of 92 yuan/ton. The main contract of ferrosilicon (SF605) closed down 0.25% at 5580 yuan/ton. The spot price of 72 ferrosilicon in Tianjin was 5700 yuan/ton, with a basis of 120 yuan/ton [8]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: In the long - term, the bullish trend of commodities may continue, but short - term market sentiment is affected by the adjustment of precious metals. The supply - demand pattern of manganese silicon is still not ideal, and that of ferrosilicon is basically balanced. The future market is mainly affected by the overall market sentiment and cost - supply factors. Attention should be paid to possible changes in manganese ore and "dual - carbon" policies [9][10]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Information**: On February 10, the main contract of coking coal (JM2605) closed down 2.445% at 1119.0 yuan/ton. The spot price of low - sulfur main coking coal in Shanxi was 1550.6 yuan/ton, with a basis of 241 yuan/ton; the medium - sulfur main coking coal was 1270 yuan/ton, with a basis of 134 yuan/ton; the Mongolian 5 clean coal in Wubulangjinquan Industrial Park was 1227 yuan/ton, with a basis of 83 yuan/ton. The main contract of coke (J2605) closed down 2.26% at 1665.0 yuan/ton. The spot price of quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke at Rizhao Port was 1470 yuan/ton, with a basis of 60.5 yuan/ton; the quasi - first - grade dry - quenched coke in Lvliang was 1550 yuan/ton, with a basis of 101 yuan/ton [12]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: In the long - term, the bullish trend of commodities may continue, but in the short term, the market is affected by precious metals. The short - term upward catalytic force is not strong, and there may be a risk of price correction after the Spring Festival. It is expected to rise smoothly from June to October [15][16]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon 1. Industrial Silicon - **Market Information**: The closing price of the main contract of industrial silicon (SI2605) was 8375 yuan/ton, down 0.89% (- 75). The weighted contract position increased by 12176 lots to 418432 lots. The spot price of 553 non - oxygen - passed industrial silicon in East China was 9200 yuan/ton, with a basis of 825 yuan/ton; the 421 was 9650 yuan/ton, with a basis of 475 yuan/ton [18]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It shows a pattern of weak supply and demand in February. It is expected to be weakly oscillating before the festival, and attention should be paid to market sentiment [19][20]. 2. Polysilicon - **Market Information**: The closing price of the main contract of polysilicon (PS2605) was 48950 yuan/ton, down 0.85% (- 420). The weighted contract position decreased by 183 lots to 65828 lots. The average price of N - type granular silicon was 50 yuan/kg, the N - type dense material was 52.75 yuan/kg, and the N - type re - feeding material was 53.65 yuan/kg, all with no change. The basis was 4700 yuan/ton [21]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply is decreasing, the demand is stable, and the high inventory is expected to be slightly reduced. The futures are expected to oscillate, and attention should be paid to post - festival demand and spot prices [22]. Glass and Soda Ash 1. Glass - **Market Information**: On Tuesday at 15:00, the main contract of glass closed at 1070 yuan/ton, down 0.74% (- 8). The North China large - plate price was 1030 yuan, and the Central China price was 1110 yuan, both with no change. On February 5, the weekly inventory of float glass sample enterprises was 53.064 million boxes, an increase of 0.5 million boxes (+ 0.95%). The top 20 long - position holders reduced 20888 long positions, and the top 20 short - position holders reduced 612 short positions [24]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is expected to continue to oscillate in the short term, with the reference range of the main contract being 1030 - 1120 yuan/ton [25]. 2. Soda Ash - **Market Information**: On Tuesday at 15:00, the main contract of soda ash closed at 1171 yuan/ton, down 0.85% (- 10). The price of heavy soda ash in Shahe was 1121 yuan, a decrease of 9 yuan. On February 5, the weekly inventory of soda ash sample enterprises was 1.5811 million tons, an increase of 36900 tons (+ 0.95%), including 746100 tons of heavy soda ash, an increase of 30000 tons, and 835000 tons of light soda ash, an increase of 6900 tons. The top 20 long - position holders increased 10237 long positions, and the top 20 short - position holders increased 28617 short positions [26]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is expected to continue to operate weakly, with the reference range of the main contract being 1140 - 1200 yuan/ton [27].

| | | | '/ V SDIC FUTURES | | 2026年02月10日 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | | | 螺纹 | 女女女 | 曹颖 首席分析师 | | 热卷 | ☆☆☆ | F3003925 Z0012043 | | 铁矿 | 女女女 | 何建辉 高级分析师 | | 焦炭 | ☆☆☆ | F0242190 Z0000586 | | 焦煤 | ☆☆☆ | | | 锰硅 | ☆☆☆ | 韩惊 高级分析师 | | 硅铁 | 女女女 | F03086835 Z0016553 | | | | 李啸尘 高级分析师 | | | | F3054140 Z0016022 | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【钢材】 今日盘面馈性小幅下挫。随着春节临近，螺纹表需加速下滑，产量同步回落，库存继续累积。热卷需求有所回落，产量短期趋 稳，库存小幅累积。钢厂利润欠佳，下游承接能力不足，高炉复产放缓，铁水产量趋稳。从下游行业看，地产投资降幅继续扩 大，基建、制造业投资增速持续回落，内需整体依然偏弱，钢材 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The steel market is expected to be in a weak consolidation phase. The inventory of building materials and hot - rolled coils is accelerating, and there are concerns about post - holiday inventory digestion. The support from raw materials for steel prices is weakening [1]. - The iron ore market will show an oscillating trend. The supply is affected by the hurricane in Australia, and the demand side has an increase in iron - water production. The inventory of imported iron ore in ports and steel mills is increasing [1]. - The coking coal and coke markets are expected to oscillate. The supply of coking coal is tightening as private coal mines go on holiday, and the demand from steel mills is weak. The coke market has a general demand and inventory pressure is emerging [1]. - The manganese - silicon and silicon - iron markets are likely to oscillate. The manganese - silicon has a slight decline in production and demand, and an increase in inventory. The silicon - iron has limited production fluctuations during the Spring Festival, and the cost and inventory situations vary [1][3]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Research Views - **Steel**: The closing price of the rebar 2605 contract was 3064 yuan/ton, down 13 yuan/ton (0.42%) from the previous trading day, with an increase of 90,200 lots in positions. The inventory of building materials and hot - rolled coils increased by 13.17% and 6.16% respectively. The market is worried about post - holiday inventory digestion, and raw material support for steel prices is weakening [1]. - **Iron Ore**: The closing price of the iron ore futures main contract i2605 was 761.5 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan/ton (0.13%). Australian shipments decreased significantly due to the hurricane, and the iron - water production increased. The inventory of imported iron ore in 47 ports increased by 156,420 tons [1]. - **Coking Coal**: The closing price of the coking coal 2605 contract was 1147 yuan/ton, up 8.5 yuan/ton (0.75%), with a decrease of 6791 lots in positions. Private coal mines are on holiday, supply is tightening, and demand from steel mills is weak [1]. - **Coke**: The closing price of the coke 2605 contract was 1703.5 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton (0.29%), with a decrease of 121 lots in positions. The supply of coke is normal, but the demand is general, and inventory pressure is emerging [1]. - **Manganese - Silicon**: The main contract of manganese - silicon closed at 5812 yuan/ton, down 1.29% from the previous day, with an increase of 11,034 lots in positions. The production decreased by 0.73% week - on - week, demand decreased, and inventory increased [1]. - **Silicon - Iron**: The main contract of silicon - iron closed at 5594 yuan/ton, down 1.44% from the previous day, with an increase of 7845 lots in positions. The production is expected to be stable during the Spring Festival, the cost situation varies, and the inventory decreased by 1040 tons [3]. 2. Daily Data Monitoring - **Contract Spreads**: The 5 - 10 spread of rebar was - 46.0 (up 1.0), the 10 - 1 spread was - 35.0 (down 1.0); for hot - rolled coils, the 5 - 10 spread was - 19.0 (down 1.0), the 10 - 1 spread was - 24.0 (up 1.0); for iron ore, the 5 - 9 spread was 18.5 (up 0.5), the 9 - 1 spread was 11.0 (up 1.0); for coke, the 5 - 9 spread was - 70.5 (unchanged), the 9 - 1 spread was - 89.5 (up 1.5); for coking coal, the 5 - 9 spread was - 75.5 (up 3.5), the 9 - 1 spread was - 171.0 (up 2.0); for manganese - silicon, the 5 - 9 spread was - 42.0 (up 4.0), the 9 - 1 spread was - 66.0 (down 12.0); for silicon - iron, the 5 - 9 spread was - 72.0 (down 4.0), the 9 - 1 spread was - 84.0 (unchanged) [3]. - **Basis**: The basis of the 05 contract of rebar was 156.0 (up 13.0), the 10 contract was 110.0 (up 14.0); for hot - rolled coils, the 05 contract basis was 1.0 (up 2.0), the 10 contract was - 18.0 (up 1.0); for iron ore, the 05 contract basis was 47.8 (up 0.1), the 09 contract was 66.3 (up 0.6); for coke, the 05 contract basis was - 70.7 (down 5.0), the 09 contract was - 141.2 (down 5.0); for coking coal, the 05 contract basis was 91.0 (down 8.5), the 09 contract was 15.5 (down 5.0); for manganese - silicon, the 05 contract basis was - 162.0 (up 44.0), the 09 contract was - 204.0 (up 48.0); for silicon - iron, the 05 contract basis was - 204.0 (down 20.0), the 09 contract was - 276.0 (down 24.0) [3]. - **Spot Prices**: Shanghai rebar was 3220.0 (unchanged), Beijing was 3120.0 (unchanged), Guangzhou was 3420.0 (unchanged); Shanghai hot - rolled coils were 3240.0 (down 10.0), Tianjin was 3190.0 (down 10.0), Guangzhou was 3280.0 (unchanged); PB powder was 763.0 (up 1.0), super - special powder was 650.0 (up 2.0); Rizhao quasi - first - class coke was 1470.0 (unchanged); Shanxi medium - sulfur main - coking coal was 1430.0 (unchanged); Ningxia manganese - silicon was 5590.0 (down 20.0), Inner Mongolia was 5650.0 (unchanged), Guangxi was 5750.0 (down 30.0); Ningxia silicon - iron was 5270.0 (down 30.0), Inner Mongolia was 5320.0 (down 50.0), Qinghai was 5300.0 (unchanged) [3]. - **Profits and Spreads**: The rebar disk profit was - 87.2 (down 17.2), the long - process profit was - 8.6 (down 3.6), the short - process profit was - 92.0 (up 0.6); the hot - rolled coil - rebar spread was 175.0 (up 1.0), the rebar - iron ore ratio was 4.0 (down 0.02), the coke - iron ore ratio was 2.2 (unchanged), the coking coal - coke ratio was 1.5 (down 0.01), the double - silicon spread was 218.0 (up 12.0) [3]. 3. Chart Analysis - **3.1 Main Contract Prices**: The report provides price trend charts of main contracts for rebar, hot - rolled coils, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese - silicon, and silicon - iron from 2021 to 2026 [5][6][7][9][10][12]. - **3.2 Main Contract Basis**: The report shows basis trend charts of main contracts for rebar, hot - rolled coils, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese - silicon, and silicon - iron [14][15][18][20]. - **3.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads**: The report presents inter - period contract spread trend charts for rebar, hot - rolled coils, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese - silicon, and silicon - iron [22][24][26][28][29][31][32][34]. - **3.4 Inter - variety Contract Spreads**: The report includes inter - variety contract spread trend charts such as the hot - rolled coil - rebar spread, rebar - iron ore ratio, rebar - coke ratio, coke - iron ore ratio, coking coal - coke ratio, and double - silicon spread [35][36][37][38]. - **3.5 Rebar Profits**: The report provides profit trend charts for the rebar main contract disk profit, long - process calculation profit, and short - process calculation profit from 2021 to 2026 [40][41][42][43][44].

图说大宗 证券研究报告 2026.02.08 图说大宗：宏观情绪与基本面共振，金 银铜波动加剧 SAC 执证编号：S0080513070006 SFC CE Ref：BBU524 chaohui.guo@cicc.com.cn 郭朝辉 分析员 王炙鹿 分析员 陈雷 分析员 SAC 执证编号：S0080523030003 zhilu.wang@cicc.com.cn SAC 执证编号：S0080524020004 lei.chen@cicc.com.cn 宏观回顾：国内内需仍偏弱，沃什难撼扩表 国内方面，1 月中采制造业 PMI 环比下降 0.8ppt 至 49.3%，低于市场预期（Reuters 预测中值 50.0%；1 月非制造业商务活动指数环比下降 0.8ppt 至 49.4%；综合 PMI 环比下降 0.9 个百分点至 49.8%，皆再度回到收缩区间。中金宏观组认为，季节性因素或对数据扰动较大，但除了季节性以外， 需求仍然弱于供给，两者缺口进一步扩大。结构上，消费品制造业和小型企业回落较多。制造业整体受 大宗商品价格上涨影响，原材料购进价格上升，但向下游传导能力仍受制于需求。建筑业受天气和季节 性因素影 ...