Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints Manufacturing - Overall: In December, the manufacturing PMI's five - year percentile was at 57.6%, with a change of 37.3%. Four industries had their manufacturing PMI in the expansion range, 4 less than the previous month and 3 less than the same period last year [4]. - Supply: Slightly declined. The 3 - month average of the manufacturing PMI production index in December was 50.5, a 0.1 - percentage - point decrease from the previous month. Five industries showed month - on - month improvement, while 10 industries declined [4]. - Demand: Still needed improvement. The 3 - month average of the manufacturing PMI new orders in December was 49.6, a 0.4 - percentage - point increase from the previous month. Three industries showed month - on - month improvement, and 12 industries declined [4]. - Inventory: Continued destocking. The 3 - month average of the manufacturing PMI finished - goods inventory in December remained flat at 47.9. Five industries saw inventory increase, and 10 industries saw inventory decrease [4]. Non - Manufacturing - Overall: In December, the non - manufacturing PMI's five - year percentile was at 22.0%, with a change of 10.2%. Eleven industries had their non - manufacturing PMI in the expansion range, 5 more than the previous month and 1 more than the same period last year [5]. - Supply: Employment remained at a low level. The 3 - month average of the non - manufacturing PMI employee index in December was 45.5, a 0.4 - percentage - point increase from the previous month. Both the service and construction sectors increased by 0.4 percentage points [5]. - Demand: Still needed improvement. The 3 - month average of the non - manufacturing PMI new orders in December was 46.3, a 0.4 - percentage - point increase from the previous month. The service sector's new orders increased by 0.2 percentage points, and the construction sector's new orders increased by 1.7 percentage points [5]. - Inventory: Continued destocking. The 3 - month average of the non - manufacturing PMI inventory in December was 45.3, with no change from the previous month. The service sector's inventory remained unchanged, and the construction sector's inventory increased by 0.8 percentage points [5]. Summary by Directory Overview - Manufacturing PMI: In December, the manufacturing PMI's five - year percentile was at 57.6%, with a change of 37.3%. Four industries had their manufacturing PMI in the expansion range, 4 less than the previous month and 3 less than the same period last year [10]. - Non - Manufacturing PMI: In December, the non - manufacturing PMI's five - year percentile was at 22.0%, with a change of 10.2%. Eleven industries had their non - manufacturing PMI in the expansion range, 5 more than the previous month and 1 more than the same period last year [10]. Demand - Manufacturing: The 3 - month average of the manufacturing PMI new orders in December was 49.6, a 0.4 - percentage - point increase from the previous month. Three industries showed month - on - month improvement, and 12 industries declined. - Non - Manufacturing: The 3 - month average of the non - manufacturing PMI new orders in December was 46.3, a 0.4 - percentage - point increase from the previous month. The service sector's new orders increased by 0.2 percentage points, and the construction sector's new orders increased by 1.7 percentage points. Five industries showed month - on - month improvement, and 10 industries declined. Pay attention to the improvement in textiles and pharmaceuticals and the decline in petroleum [16]. Supply - Manufacturing: The 3 - month average of the manufacturing PMI production index in December was 50.5, a 0.1 - percentage - point decrease from the previous month. Five industries showed month - on - month improvement, and 10 industries declined. The manufacturing PMI employee index in December was 48.3, a 0.1 - percentage - point decrease from the previous month. Five industries showed month - on - month improvement, and 10 industries declined. - Non - Manufacturing: The 3 - month average of the non - manufacturing PMI employee index in December was 45.5, a 0.4 - percentage - point increase from the previous month. The service and construction sectors both increased by 0.4 percentage points. Eleven industries showed month - on - month improvement, and 3 industries declined. Pay attention to the decline in non - ferrous metals and农副食品 and the improvement in ferrous metals [25]. Price - Manufacturing: The 3 - month average of the manufacturing PMI ex - factory price index in December was 48.2, a 0.2 - percentage - point increase from the previous month. Seven industries saw their ex - factory prices improve, and 8 industries declined. In terms of profit, the profit trend in December increased by 0.4 percentage points, and the overall continued to converge. - Non - Manufacturing: The 3 - month average of the non - manufacturing charge price index in December was 48.3, a 0.2 - percentage - point increase from the previous month. The service sector increased by 0.3 percentage points, and the construction sector decreased by 0.2 percentage points. Eight industries showed month - on - month improvement, and 7 industries declined. In terms of profit, the profit in December remained unchanged. The service sector decreased by 0.1 percentage points, and the construction sector increased by 0.5 percentage points. Pay attention to the improvement in non - ferrous metals and the decline in petroleum [34]. Inventory - Manufacturing: The 3 - month average of the manufacturing PMI finished - goods inventory in December remained flat at 47.9. Five industries saw inventory increase, and 10 industries saw inventory decrease. The manufacturing PMI raw - material inventory in November decreased by 0.2 percentage points to 47.5. Seven industries saw inventory increase, and 8 industries saw inventory decrease. - Non - Manufacturing: The 3 - month average of the non - manufacturing PMI inventory in December was 45.3, with no change from the previous month. The service sector's inventory remained unchanged, and the construction sector's inventory increased by 0.8 percentage points. Five industries saw inventory increase, and 10 industries saw inventory decrease. Pay attention to the destocking of non - metallic products and the increase in construction inventory [42]. Main Manufacturing Industry PMI Charts - The report provides data on the PMI of various manufacturing industries, including general equipment, special equipment, automobiles, computers, motors, pharmaceuticals,农副食品, textiles, non - ferrous metals, petroleum, chemicals, ferrous metals, non - metallic products, metal products, and chemical fiber and rubber products, showing values, month - on - month changes, three - year averages, and year - on - year changes [53][54][57][58][59][66][67][68].

截至日间收盘，内盘基本金属普涨，仅沪铅和沪锡一同下跌，沪铅跌0.66%，沪锡跌0.45%。沪铝、沪 镍一同涨逾2%，沪镍涨2.44%，盘中最高冲至135570元/吨，续刷2025年3月以来的新高；沪铝涨 2.25%，盘中最高冲至23030元/吨，刷新2022年3月以来的新高。沪铜涨0.84%，沪锌小幅上涨0.06%。 氧化铝主连涨1.42%，铸造铝主连涨1.75%。 此外，碳酸锂主连涨0.86%，工业硅主连跌0.17%，多晶硅主连涨1.03%。欧线集运主连涨0.52%报 1801.3。 来源：上海有色网 金属市场： | 初始 代码 | | 名称 | ●業 | 最新 | 涨幅% | 深武失 | 总量 | 现慢 | 买入价 | 英H价 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 ecm | | 欧线集运主连 | $ | 1801.3 | 0.52 | 9.3 | 2.1575 | 1 | 1800.1 | 1801.6 | | 8 | CLOOY | NYMEX原油 | 9 | 57.89 | -0.10 | ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No information provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Overseas, the Q3 US GDP exceeded expectations with a 4.3% growth, and the job market showed resilience, dampening rate - cut expectations. Domestically, policies aim to expand domestic demand, but November economic data indicated weak domestic demand, still needing policy support. Attention should be paid to domestic PMI data and Trump's nominee for the next Fed chair [2]. - The breakthrough of the RMB against the US dollar at the 7.00 mark may end the low - volatility forex market. The RMB is likely to end the year stably, and attention should be paid to the effectiveness of exchange - rate stabilization policies [5][6]. - Short - term stock indices are expected to be volatile and bullish, but continuous upward breakthroughs still need to be observed. Bonds are not pessimistic in the medium - term. The container shipping European line futures are expected to be volatile, with the near - term contract range - bound and the far - term contract under pressure [6][8][11]. - For precious metals, platinum and palladium are recommended to be held lightly during the holiday. Gold and silver are expected to be weak in the short - term and bullish in the long - term. Copper is recommended to be observed more and traded less before the holiday. Aluminum is expected to be bullish in the long - term, while alumina and cast aluminum alloy have their own characteristics [15][18][21]. - Zinc has limited upside space. Nickel - stainless steel is driven by supply reduction expectations and demand improvement, but it is recommended to reduce positions during the holiday. Tin has rebounded from oversold conditions and is expected to be volatile. Carbonate lithium has long - term value support and is recommended to be bought on dips. Industrial silicon and polysilicon prices are gradually rising, and long positions can be considered on dips [25][26][29]. - Lead is expected to be volatile. Steel products are expected to be range - bound, with iron ore oscillating, coking coal and coke facing uncertain supply, and ferrosilicon and ferromanganese being volatile and bullish in the short - term [34][36][41]. - Pulp and offset paper can be observed first, and low - buying strategies can be tried lightly. Crude oil is expected to be range - bound at a low level. LPG is supported in the near - term and pressured in the long - term. PTA - PX has a strong - expectation and weak - reality situation. MEG - bottle chips are under valuation pressure until macro - narrative is realized. Methanol can be bought at a low level [45][49][58]. - PP and PE are expected to be bottom - oscillating. Pure benzene - styrene is expected to be bullish and oscillating. Fuel oil has weak cracking, and low - sulfur fuel oil has stable cracking. Urea can be bought in the far - month contract. Soda ash, glass, and caustic soda are affected by supply and demand and market sentiment [63][66][73]. - Logs can be observed or a fine - grid strategy can be used. Propylene is expected to be range - bound at a low level, and attention should be paid to marginal changes [79][80]. - For agricultural products, pigs' long - term supply may be affected by policies, while short - term fundamentals prevail. Oilseeds are strong in the near - term and weak in the far - term. Oils are widely oscillating under supply pressure. Cotton may correct in the short - term and rise in the long - term. Sugar maintains a balance. Eggs are generally bearish. Apples are expected to be oscillating. Red dates are expected to be range - bound at a low level [84][85][90] Group 3: Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Financial Futures - **Market Information**: Central rural work conference focuses on agricultural technology; 2026 national subsidy plan is released; Fed meeting minutes show divided views on rate cuts; Trump may sue the current Fed chair and will announce the next nominee in January [1][4]. - **Core Logic**: Overseas, the US economy is strong, dampening rate - cut expectations. Domestically, policies aim to expand domestic demand, but domestic demand is weak, still needing policy support [2]. - **RMB Exchange Rate**: The RMB broke through the 7.00 mark, and it is expected to end the year stably. Attention should be paid to exchange - rate stabilization policies [5][6]. - **Stock Indices**: The stock indices were volatile and bullish last trading day. Policy signals are positive, but continuous upward breakthroughs still need to be observed [6][7]. - **Bonds**: The bond market was range - bound on Tuesday. The mid - term view on bonds is not pessimistic, and long positions can be held during the holiday [7][8]. - **Container Shipping European Line**: The futures market closed down yesterday. The market is concerned about the sustainability of price increases, and the near - term contract is range - bound while the far - term contract is under pressure [9][11]. Commodities Non - ferrous Metals - **Platinum & Palladium**: Platinum rose and palladium oscillated last night. The long - term bullish foundation remains, but short - term price fluctuations may intensify. It is recommended to hold lightly during the holiday [14][15]. - **Gold & Silver**: Gold oscillated and silver rose. The short - term view is weak, and the long - term view is bullish. It is recommended to reduce long positions or stay out of the market during the holiday [16][18]. - **Copper**: Copper prices rose last night. Short - term adjustments do not change the long - term upward trend. It is recommended to observe more and trade less before the holiday [19][21]. - **Aluminum Industry Chain**: Aluminum is expected to be bullish in the long - term, alumina is expected to be range - bound, and cast aluminum alloy is expected to be bullish. Attention should be paid to the impact of related varieties [22][23]. - **Zinc**: Zinc prices were bullish last trading day. The upside space is limited, and it is expected to be range - bound at a high level in the short - term [25]. - **Nickel - Stainless Steel**: Nickel and stainless steel prices rose yesterday. The supply is expected to shrink in 2026, and demand is expected to improve. It is recommended to reduce positions during the holiday [25][26]. - **Tin**: Tin prices rebounded from oversold conditions last trading day. It is expected to be range - bound in the short - term [27]. - **Carbonate Lithium**: The futures price rose yesterday. The long - term value is supported, and it is recommended to buy on dips [28][29]. - **Industrial Silicon & Polysilicon**: The prices of industrial silicon and polysilicon futures rose yesterday. The industrial silicon market is in a supply - demand weak state, and polysilicon prices are showing signs of warming. Long positions can be considered on dips [30][32]. - **Lead**: Lead prices oscillated narrowly last trading day. It is expected to be range - bound in the short - term [33][34]. Black Metals - **Rebar & Hot - Rolled Coil**: Steel products oscillated yesterday. The fundamentals have few contradictions, and prices are expected to be range - bound [35][36]. - **Iron Ore**: Iron ore prices followed other metals up and down. The fundamentals are neutral, and prices are expected to be range - bound [37][38]. - **Coking Coal & Coke**: Coal and coke prices opened low and closed high on Tuesday. The supply and demand of coking coal and coke are facing uncertainties, and attention should be paid to the supply recovery in January [39][40]. - **Silicon Iron & Silicon Manganese**: Ferroalloys were bullish and oscillating yesterday. They are expected to be bullish and oscillating in the short - term, but the upside space may be limited [41][42]. Energy and Chemicals - **Pulp - Offset Paper**: Pulp futures rebounded yesterday, and offset paper futures rose. The market is still neutral, and low - buying strategies can be tried lightly [44][46]. - **Crude Oil**: Crude oil futures closed down yesterday. OPEC+ is expected to continue to suspend the production increase plan. Oil prices are expected to be range - bound at a low level [47][49]. - **LPG**: LPG prices rose yesterday. It is supported in the near - term and pressured in the long - term [50][51]. - **PTA - PX**: PX supply is expected to remain high, and PTA supply is uncertain. PTA processing fees are expected to rise, but the space is limited. PX is expected to be tight in the first half of 2026 [52][55]. - **MEG - Bottle Chips**: MEG supply is expected to increase, and demand is expected to weaken. It is under valuation pressure until macro - narrative is realized [56][58]. - **Methanol**: Methanol prices rose sharply. It is recommended to buy at a low level [59][60]. - **PP**: PP prices rose yesterday. It is expected to be range - bound, and attention should be paid to the scale of plant maintenance in January [61][63]. - **PE**: PE prices rose yesterday. It is expected to be bottom - oscillating, with supply pressure relieved and demand weakening [64][66]. - **Pure Benzene - Styrene**: Pure benzene and styrene prices rose yesterday. They are expected to be bullish and oscillating, but high - buying is not recommended [67][69]. - **Fuel Oil**: Fuel oil prices closed at 2473 yuan/ton yesterday. The supply is abundant, and the cracking is weak [70]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Low - sulfur fuel oil prices closed at 2977 yuan/ton yesterday. The supply is improving, and the cracking is stable [71][72]. - **Urea**: Urea prices closed at 1756 yesterday. It is recommended to buy in the far - month contract [72][73]. - **Soda Ash - Glass - Caustic Soda**: Soda ash, glass, and caustic soda prices rose yesterday. Soda ash is affected by new capacity and demand; glass is affected by cold - repair and inventory; caustic soda is affected by market sentiment and downstream demand [73][76]. - **Logs**: Log prices closed at 776 yesterday. It can be observed or a fine - grid strategy can be used [77][79]. - **Propylene**: Propylene prices rose yesterday. It is expected to be range - bound at a low level, and attention should be paid to marginal changes [80]. Agricultural Products - **Pigs**: Pig futures prices rose yesterday. The long - term supply may be affected by policies, while short - term fundamentals prevail [83][84]. - **Oilseeds**: The external market was weak, and the domestic near - month market was strong. It is recommended to try a 3 - 5 positive spread lightly [85][86]. - **Oils**: International oils are under supply pressure, and domestic oils are oscillating. Palm oil and rapeseed oil are relatively strong, and soybean oil is weak [87][88]. - **Cotton**: Cotton futures prices were mixed. The short - term may correct, and the long - term may rise. Attention should be paid to downstream orders and policy changes [89][90]. - **Sugar**: Sugar futures prices were mixed. The short - term upward pressure is increasing [91][93]. - **Eggs**: Egg futures prices fell yesterday. It is generally bearish in the long - term, and long positions can be held lightly for a rebound [94]. - **Apples**: Apple futures prices rose yesterday. It is expected to be oscillating, and long positions can be bought on dips [95][96]. - **Red Dates**: Red date futures prices are expected to be range - bound at a low level. Attention should be paid to downstream pre - holiday purchases [97][98].

1. Report's Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The current fundamental pattern of crude oil is dominated by oversupply, leading to a downward shift in the oil - price center, despite geopolitical conflicts causing occasional price spikes [2]. - Precious metals are supported by the Fed's easing prospects and geopolitical risks, but short - term adjustments are inevitable due to excessive gains driven by funds [3]. - For various metals, non - ferrous metals and precious metals generally show certain trends, with each metal having its own supply - demand and price characteristics. For example, copper prices are affected by the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations, and aluminum shows an oscillatingly strong trend [4][5]. - For energy and chemical products, most products face supply - demand imbalances, with some affected by geopolitical factors and some by seasonal and policy factors. For example, fuel oil is affected by geopolitical tensions and high - inventory pressure [22]. - Agricultural products' prices are influenced by factors such as weather, supply - demand relationships, and policies. For example, soybean and bean - related products are affected by South American weather and export situations [36]. - In the financial market, the stock index shows an oscillatingly strong trend, and the bond market has different trends for different - term bonds [48][49]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Energy Crude Oil - Geopolitical tensions increase concerns about supply disruptions, but the market is still dominated by oversupply. EIA predicts a daily increase of over 2 million barrels in global inventories, and the oil - price center is expected to shift downward [2]. Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - Geopolitical factors provide short - term support, but the supply - surplus situation remains unchanged. High - sulfur fuel oil demand may increase, but Singapore's high inventory is a significant pressure. Low - sulfur fuel oil supply is expected to recover, and demand remains weak [22]. Asphalt - Commercial inventory de - stocking is weak, and the supply of heavy raw materials is unstable due to the escalating situation between the US and Venezuela, providing bottom - end support for prices [23]. Metals Precious Metals - Overnight, precious metals turned upward. The Fed's easing prospects and geopolitical risks support their strength, but short - term adjustments are needed due to excessive gains. After volatility decreases, a long - position strategy can be considered [3]. Copper - Overnight, copper prices rebounded, with large short - term price fluctuations near the New Year. The market focuses on the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations in 2026. The previous options strategy should be continued, and attention should be paid to refinery production schedules and social inventory changes [4]. Aluminum - Overnight, Shanghai aluminum fluctuated within a narrow range. After a significant correction, the panic sentiment eased. The fundamental driving force of the aluminum market is insufficient, and the oscillatingly strong trend remains unchanged. Long positions can be held based on the 40 - day moving average [5]. Casting Aluminum Alloy - The spot price of Baotai ADC12 remained at 21,900 yuan. Scrap aluminum is still in short supply, and the cost in some areas may increase due to tax adjustments. The seasonal spread between casting aluminum alloy and Shanghai aluminum is weaker than in previous years, maintaining around 1,000 yuan [6]. Alumina - Alumina is in a state of significant oversupply, and the cost has room to decline as the bauxite price falls. The short - term decline in the spot price is slowing down, but medium - term stabilization requires large - scale production cuts [7]. Zinc - The supply - side pressure of zinc is weakening, and the overall upward trend remains unchanged. The consumption outlook in January is moderately optimistic, but the real - estate sector restricts the upside of zinc prices. Shanghai zinc is expected to oscillate in the range of 22,800 - 23,800 yuan/ton [8]. Lead - The maintenance of primary lead smelters continues, and the low social inventory supports the price, but battery enterprises' inventory checks at the end of the year suppress demand. Shanghai lead is expected to oscillate at the bottom, with a price range of 16,800 - 17,500 yuan/ton [9]. Nickel & Stainless Steel - Nickel prices rose again, but the spot trading was cold. The Indonesian Nickel Ore Association reduced the ore quota and will modify the mineral benchmark price formula in early 2026. Stainless - steel costs increased due to the rising nickel - iron price, and social inventory decreased. Short - term policy sentiment dominates, and it is advisable to wait and see [10]. Tin - Shanghai tin rebounded with a reduction in positions. Attention should be paid to the possible mining conference around the New Year. It is recommended to hold a 350,000 - yuan call - selling option and observe the adjustment range [11]. Iron Ore - The supply pressure of iron ore is still large, but with the sign of iron - water production bottoming out and the expectation of steel - mill winter - storage replenishment, the short - term price is supported. However, the positive factors have been reflected in the recent price increase, and the future trend is expected to be oscillatory [16]. Coke - The price oscillated upward during the day. The fourth round of price cuts for coke was fully implemented, and the coking profit was average. The inventory increased slightly, and the downstream demand was still resilient but with a strong willingness to suppress prices. The price faces fundamental pressure after correcting the premium, and market sentiment is affected by policy expectations [17]. Coking Coal - The price oscillated upward during the day. The Mongolian coal customs - clearance volume decreased seasonally, and some domestic coal mines reduced or stopped production. The total coking - coal inventory increased slightly. Similar to coke, it faces fundamental pressure after correcting the discount, and market sentiment is affected by policy expectations [18]. Manganese - The price oscillated strongly during the day. The manganese ore spot price increased. There are structural problems in the port inventory, and the demand for semi - carbonate ore may increase. The iron - water production decreased seasonally. It is recommended to try long positions when the price is low [19]. Silicon Iron - The price oscillated strongly during the day. There are expectations of coal - supply guarantee, which may reduce the power cost and lanthanum - carbon price. The iron - water production rebounded, and the overall demand is still resilient. The supply decreased significantly. It is recommended to try long positions when the price is low [20]. Chemicals Polycrystalline Silicon - The spot price of polycrystalline silicon increased slightly. The downstream silicon - wafer production in December was lower than expected, so the production schedule in January may be slightly increased. The battery - cell production is expected to continue to decline in January. The factory inventory is at a high level and continues to accumulate. The price is expected to oscillate at a high level [13]. Industrial Silicon - The weekly operating rate in the northwest main - production area fluctuated slightly. The demand side is still under pressure, and the demand for polycrystalline silicon may weaken again. The upward momentum of the future price depends on the implementation of production - reduction expectations, and the trend may change from strong oscillation to consolidation [14]. Urea - The urea price oscillated strongly. The supply tightened temporarily, and the production - enterprise inventory decreased significantly. The agricultural procurement slowed down, and the industrial demand was mainly for rigid needs. The supply may increase in the short term, and the price may decline slightly [24]. Methanol - The methanol main - contract price increased with an increase in positions. The import volume is expected to decrease gradually, and the coastal MTO device is approaching the restart time. The medium - term port inventory may enter a de - stocking cycle. The short - term port inventory is accumulating. The medium - term price is expected to be strong [25]. Pure Benzene - The pure - benzene price oscillated at night. The port inventory continued to increase, higher than the same period in previous years. There are expectations of device maintenance and downstream production increase in the future, but the supply may also increase. The short - term price oscillates at the bottom, and the medium - term can consider long - short spreads [26]. Styrene - The cost side does not provide obvious positive driving force for styrene. The supply and demand are expected to increase simultaneously, but there is an expectation of inventory accumulation, which is difficult to boost the price [27]. Polypropylene, Plastic & Propylene - The cost pressure on downstream propylene has been slightly relieved, but the demand recovery is limited. The supply of polyethylene is expected to increase, and the downstream procurement enthusiasm is not high. The supply of polypropylene is expected to increase slightly, and the short - term demand is still weak [28]. PVC & Caustic Soda - PVC shows an oscillatingly strong trend. The supply may increase in the short term, and the demand is weak. The inventory pressure is large, and it is expected to oscillate within a range. Caustic soda runs strongly, but the supply pressure is large, and the downstream demand growth is limited, so the upward space is restricted [29]. PX & PTA - The PX price rose due to strong expectations but started to oscillate after a decline. The short - term supply may increase, and the downstream demand may decline. PTA is expected to reduce inventory at a low load, and the processing margin has slightly recovered. The main driving force is the raw material PX [30]. Ethylene Glycol - The weekly production of ethylene glycol decreased, and the port inventory increased. The downstream polyester is expected to reduce production around the Spring Festival, and the fundamental situation is weakening. However, the reduction in arrival volume and device load eases the inventory - accumulation pressure. The price oscillates at a low level. The long - term supply pressure is still large [31]. Short - Fiber & Bottle Chips - Short - fiber enterprises' inventory is at a low level, but it is the off - season for demand. The long - term supply - demand pattern is relatively good. Bottle - chip demand has weakened, and the inventory has decreased. The long - term problem of over - capacity exists, and the price is mainly driven by cost [32]. Building Materials Glass - Glass prices are running strongly due to environmental - protection pressure and production - capacity reduction. The industry inventory is increasing slightly, and the demand is insufficient. The industry will continue to reduce production capacity, and a new balance is expected to be achieved [33]. Rubber 20 - Number Rubber, Natural Rubber & Butadiene Rubber - Favorable policies have been introduced, and the international crude - oil price has risen slightly. The global natural - rubber supply is entering the production - reduction period. The demand is average, the natural - rubber inventory is increasing, and the synthetic - rubber inventory is decreasing. The cost support is strengthening. Before the New Year's Day holiday, RU&NR are strong, and BR should be observed [34]. Fertilizers Soda Ash - The soda - ash price is strong due to the call for anti - involution and significant inventory reduction. The production may increase in the future, and the supply pressure is large. The demand for heavy soda ash has slightly declined. The short - term inventory reduction should be observed for sustainability, and the long - term faces oversupply pressure [35]. Agricultural Products Soybean & Bean Meal - This week's soybean crushing volume is expected to decline, and the bean - meal output will decrease. The downstream demand is light, and the inventory may remain high. The South American weather has improved, and the trading logic focuses on US soybean exports and South American production expectations. The bean - meal price will follow the US soybean price and oscillate at the bottom [36]. Soybean Oil & Palm Oil - Near the holiday, the domestic soybean - oil and palm - oil prices rebounded. The South American new - season soybeans are expected to have a good harvest, and the domestic soybean inventory is high. The palm - oil high - inventory pressure in Malaysia needs to be digested. The short - term macro - atmosphere is optimistic [37]. Rapeseed & Rapeseed Oil - The domestic rapeseed inventory is at a low level, and the supply - side expectation supports the near - month contracts. The EU's rapeseed supply - demand balance has been slightly adjusted. The market focuses on Australian rapeseed crushing and policies. The short - term strategy is to wait and see [38]. Soybean No.1 - The domestic soybean main - contract price is strong. The auction price provides support, and the spot - purchase price has increased. The South American new - season soybeans are expected to have a good harvest. Short - term attention should be paid to domestic policies and the spot market [39]. Corn - The northeast and north - port corn prices are strong. The low - temperature weather makes farmers reluctant to sell, and the supply of ground - stored corn is tight. The resumption of low - price old - wheat auctions may suppress the corn price. The Brazilian first - crop corn planting rate is high. The short - term Dalian corn futures will oscillate [40]. Live Pigs - The live - pig 03 - contract price continued to rise, and the spot price increased rapidly due to reduced end - of - month sales and tight large - pig supply. There is still an expectation of second - fattening replenishment in the short term, but the long - term supply pressure is large, and it is recommended to short after the 03 - contract price rebounds [41]. Eggs - The egg - futures price is weakly adjusted. The spot price is in a low - level oscillation range. The 2 - month contract is expected to be weak, and the 4 - and 5 - month contracts in the first half of next year may be strong. The high - premium contracts in the second half of next year may have a complex trading rhythm [42]. Cotton - Zhengzhou cotton prices rose yesterday, and the spot trading was average. Although the new - cotton production has increased significantly this year, the commercial inventory is lower than the same period last year, and the sales progress is fast, providing support for the price. The demand is stable in the off - season. The industry can consider hedging opportunities [43]. Sugar - Overnight, US sugar oscillated. The rainfall in Brazil in December increased, and the previous drought was slightly alleviated. The international sugar supply is sufficient, and the upward pressure on US sugar remains. The domestic market focuses on the new - season production. The Guangxi production progress is slow, but there is a strong expectation of production increase in the 25/26 season, and the rebound of Zhengzhou sugar is expected to be limited [44]. Apples - The apple - futures price oscillates. The cold - storage trading is light, and the demand has entered the off - season. The market's bearish sentiment has increased, and a bearish strategy is recommended [45]. Wood - The wood - futures price is at a low level. The external - market quotation has decreased, and the domestic spot price is weak. The demand is in the off - season, and the port inventory is decreasing. The low inventory provides some support, and it is advisable to wait and see [46]. Pulp - Pulp prices rose yesterday. The short - term upward space is limited due to weak downstream demand. The port inventory has been decreasing for five consecutive weeks. The new - year contract, especially the 01 contract, may face less warehouse - receipt pressure. The paper - mill procurement is mainly for rigid needs, and the market game is intense. It is advisable to wait and see [47]. Financial Products Stock Index - Yesterday, the Shanghai Composite Index remained flat with ten consecutive positive days. Most stock - index futures contracts rose, and the basis of all contracts was at a discount. The external - market performance was divided. After precious metals shifted from a one - way upward trend to a high - level volatile pattern, the performance of the stock index and other risk assets needs to be observed. The A - share market is expected to be oscillatingly strong, and attention can be paid to the rotation of low - level sectors [48]. Treasury Bonds - On December 30, 2025, treasury - bond futures showed mixed results. The 30 - year bond rose, and the 10 - and 5 - year bonds fell slightly. The ultra - long - term bonds showed an oversold - recovery trend, and the short - term contracts were relatively weak. In the short term, the allocation of ultra - long - term bonds may increase, and it is advisable to participate in the butterfly - spread strategy to make the yield - curve convex [49].

| | | | 11/11/2/1 | SDIC FUTURES | | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | 2025年12月30日 | | 螺纹 | ☆☆☆ | 曹颖 首席分析师 | | 热着 | な女女 | F3003925 Z0012043 | | 铁矿 | ☆☆☆ | 何建辉 高级分析师 | | 焦炭 | ★☆★ | F0242190 Z0000586 | | 焦煤 | ★☆★ | | | 證硅 | ★★☆ | 韩惊 高级分析师 | | 硅铁 | ★★☆ | F03086835 Z0016553 | | | | 李啸尘 高级分析师 | | | | F3054140 Z0016022 | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【钢材】 今日盘面震荡为主。淡季螺纹表需下滑，产量继续小幅回升,库存延续去化态势。热卷需求回暖，产量小幅回 升,去库有所加快,压力仍有待缓解。供应压力逐步缓解,钢厂利润边际改善,高炉减产态势放缓,铁水有所 企稳,关注唐山等地环保限产持续性。从下游行业看,地产投资降幅继续扩大，基建 ...

在供应链压力加剧与关税预期的双重推动下，铜价正经历一场自2017年以来最长的连涨行情，不仅刷新了年末市场的交易热度，更奠定了该金属 十余年来最强劲的年度表现。 受此推动，铜价周一一度触及每吨近13000美元的历史高点。随后虽有回落，但在周二再度上涨2.2%至每吨12493美元，有望录得连续第10个交易 日上涨。尽管已处高位，市场做多情绪依然展现出显著韧性，投资者正通过抢先布局以应对未来可能出现的供应紧缩。 对于铜市场而言，美国进口关税的威胁已成为当前主要的驱动因素。看涨人士指出，为了规避潜在的关税壁垒，大量金属正被提前运往美国港 口。这种抢运潮不仅迫使买家支付更高的价格，更加剧了全球其他地区的供应紧张局面。 贸易商正密切关注这一物流动态。Mercuria Energy Group Ltd. 早在11月就曾发出警告，预测2026年世界其他地区将面临铜的"极端短缺"。这种由 于贸易政策预期引发的库存重新分配，正在重塑短期内的全球金属流动格局。 供应问题在2025年主导了整个金属板块的叙事。除了铜矿生产国遭遇的一系列事故外，其他工业金属也未能幸免。铝生产正面临中国供应限制和 能源成本高企的威胁，而锌矿的开采同样受到 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The commodity market as a whole rose 4% last week, with precious metals leading the way with a 9.69% increase. The short - term commodity market may run stably due to the loose dollar liquidity [2]. - The Fed's loose outlook and geopolitical risks support the strength of precious metals. The short - term market fluctuates greatly as various varieties hit new highs [2]. - The non - ferrous sector may oscillate strongly in the short term due to the weak dollar and the support from the expected contraction of mine supply [3]. - The black sector may oscillate as the demand and supply situation is complex, with factors such as changes in steel mill production and raw material supply [3]. - Oil prices continue to be under pressure due to the long - term loose supply - demand background, despite the geopolitical tension in Venezuela [3]. - The polyester chemical varieties may be affected by supply and demand changes, and attention should be paid to the downstream polyester load [4]. - The short - term trend of agricultural products and oils and fats is expected to be oscillatory, influenced by factors such as weather and export expectations [4]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - The overall commodity market rose 4% last week, with precious metals up 9.69%, non - ferrous metals up 4.97%, energy and chemicals up 2.98%, agricultural products up 2.53%, and black metals up 0.08%. Silver, PTA, and nickel were the top gainers, while tin, coke, and rebar were the top losers [2][6]. - The 20 - day average volatility of the commodity market increased, with only the black and coal - chemical related varieties showing a decline in volatility. The overall market scale increased, but only the precious metal and non - ferrous sectors had net inflows, with most funds concentrated in silver [2][6]. 3.2 Outlook for Different Sectors - **Precious Metals**: Supported by the Fed's loose policy and geopolitical risks, the shortage of spot makes silver, platinum, and palladium more favored by funds. The gold - silver ratio has fallen below the average. Exchange restrictions and risk warnings have led to large short - term market fluctuations [2]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: The weak dollar and better - than - expected GDP growth in the US provide a neutral - warm macro environment. Although the inventory is increasing and the spot premium is weakening, the expected contraction of mine supply supports the price, and the sector may oscillate strongly in the short term [3]. - **Black Metals**: The demand for rebar decreased, production increased slightly, and inventory continued to decline. The slowdown of blast furnace production cuts and the stable molten iron output need attention to the sustainability of environmental protection restrictions. The supply of raw materials is relatively sufficient, and the sector may oscillate in the short term [3]. - **Energy**: The geopolitical tension in Venezuela increases the risk premium of crude oil, but the impact on global supply is limited. The US shale oil production remains high, and oil prices are under pressure due to the long - term loose supply - demand situation [3]. - **Chemical Industry**: Polyester varieties may face supply pressure from device restarts, but the strong expectation remains, and attention should be paid to the downstream polyester load [4]. - **Agricultural Products**: The improving weather in South America and the expected transition of La Nina to ENSO neutral increase the expectation of a bumper harvest in South America. The fundamentals of palm oil are less negative, and the short - term trend of oils and fats may be oscillatory [4]. 3.3 Commodity Fund Overview - Gold ETFs generally had positive returns last week, with the total scale of gold ETFs increasing by 0.77% and the total trading volume increasing by 29.04%. The total scale of commodity ETFs increased by 0.86% and the trading volume increased by 23.22% [36]. - Among them, the returns of different gold ETFs ranged from 3.21% to 3.60%, and the return of the silver fund was 17.43%, while the returns of energy - chemical, bean - meal, and non - ferrous metal ETFs were 4.25%, 1.69%, and 4.34% respectively [36][38].

Core Viewpoint - The monitoring of market prices for 50 important production materials across nine categories indicates a mixed trend, with 27 products experiencing price increases, 19 seeing declines, and 4 remaining stable in early December 2025 compared to late November 2025 [2][3]. Group 1: Price Changes in Major Categories - In the black metal category, rebar (Φ20mm, HRB400E) is priced at 3191.8 CNY per ton, up by 23.4 CNY, a 0.7% increase [5]. - In the non-ferrous metal category, electrolytic copper (1) is priced at 90698.1 CNY per ton, increasing by 4059.8 CNY, or 4.7% [6]. - In the chemical products category, sulfuric acid (98%) is priced at 1013.9 CNY per ton, up by 74.4 CNY, a 7.9% increase [6]. Group 2: Specific Product Price Movements - Liquid natural gas (LNG) is priced at 4092.2 CNY per ton, down by 121.5 CNY [7]. - Gasoline (95 National VI) is priced at 8057.3 CNY per ton, increasing by 34.6 CNY [7]. - Urea (medium and small particles) is priced at 1713.2 CNY per ton, up by 36.5 CNY, a 2.2% increase [9]. Group 3: Monitoring Methodology and Scope - The monitoring covers over 2000 wholesalers, agents, and distributors across more than 300 trading markets in 31 provinces [12]. - Price monitoring methods include on-site price collection, telephone inquiries, and electronic communications [13]. - The price changes are categorized based on percentage changes, with 27 products increasing, 19 decreasing, and 4 remaining stable [14].

Core Viewpoint - The monitoring of market prices for 50 important production materials across nine categories shows a mixed trend, with 15 products experiencing price increases, 31 seeing declines, and 4 remaining stable in mid-December 2025 compared to early December 2025 [2][3]. Group 1: Price Changes in Major Categories - In the black metal category, prices for rebar decreased by 22.0 yuan per ton to 3169.8 yuan, while wire rod fell by 15.0 yuan to 3354.5 yuan [5]. - In the non-ferrous metals category, electrolytic copper saw an increase of 1822.7 yuan per ton, reaching 92520.8 yuan, while aluminum ingots dropped by 65.8 yuan to 21796.7 yuan [6]. - Chemical products showed varied results, with sulfuric acid increasing by 44.0 yuan to 1057.9 yuan, while several other chemicals like caustic soda and methanol experienced price declines [6][7]. Group 2: Energy and Coal Prices - The price of liquefied natural gas (LNG) decreased by 172.7 yuan to 3919.5 yuan per ton, while liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) fell by 4.2 yuan to 4405.4 yuan [7]. - Coal prices showed a slight increase for some types, with non-caking coal rising by 7.5 yuan to 930.5 yuan per ton, while other types like Shanxi mixed coal saw declines [8]. Group 3: Agricultural Products and Inputs - In agricultural products, the price of rice increased by 25.6 yuan to 3943.2 yuan per ton, while wheat and corn prices saw minor declines [8][9]. - Fertilizer prices varied, with urea decreasing by 1.4 yuan to 1711.8 yuan per ton, while compound fertilizer increased by 61.8 yuan to 3390.6 yuan [9]. Group 4: Monitoring Methodology - The price monitoring covers over 2000 wholesalers, agents, and dealers across more than 300 trading markets in 31 provinces, utilizing methods such as on-site price collection and electronic inquiries [12][13].

来源：上海有色网 金属市场： 外盘金属方面，截至15:02分，外盘伦铜以3.17%的涨幅领涨，伦锌涨0.81%，伦锡、伦镍跌幅均在1%以 内。 贵金属方面，截至15:02分，COMEX黄金跌1.16%，COMEX白银跌2.28%。国内方面，沪金跌0.91%， 沪银涨幅收窄至0.51%。 此外，铂、钯主连一同跌停，铂主连以10%的跌幅报634.35元/克，钯主连以10%的跌幅报494.1元/克。 截至今日15:02分行情 | | | 名称 | * @ | | | | | | 涨跌 | 原因 | 划期 宜 买入价 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | ecm | 欧线集运 百连 | | 19 | 1822.9 | 0.87 | | | 15.8 | 2.44万 | 5 1822.0 1822.9 | | | | | LNKT | 综合镇03 | | | 15688 | | | | | | | -98 0 0 15700 15710 4 -0.62 | | | 1 ...