Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No clear industry - wide investment ratings are provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - The report provides trend forecasts for various commodities in the black series on November 18, 2025. Iron ore and logs are expected to fluctuate repeatedly; rebar, hot - rolled coils, ferrosilicon, and silicomanganese are expected to have a strong - biased oscillation, with ferrosilicon's bias due to continuous production cuts in the main production areas and silicomanganese's due to sector sentiment disturbances; coke and coking coal are expected to have a wide - range oscillation [2]. Group 3: Summaries by Commodity Iron Ore - **Fundamentals**: The previous day's futures price was 788.5 yuan/ton, up 16 yuan (2.07%). Imported ore prices generally rose, while domestic ore prices fell. Some basis and spread values changed [4]. - **Macro and Industry News**: In October, the added value of large - scale industries increased by 4.9% year - on - year, 0.17% month - on - month, and 6.1% from January to October [5]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 (neutral) [5]. Hot - Rolled Coils - **Fundamentals**: The previous day's HC2601 futures price was 3,302 yuan/ton, up 51 yuan (1.57%). Spot prices in various regions rose. Some basis and spread values changed [8]. - **Macro and Industry News**: According to the November 13th weekly data from Steel Union, in terms of production, rebar decreased by 8.54 tons, hot - rolled coils by 4.5 tons; in terms of total inventory, rebar decreased by 16.37 tons, hot - rolled coils increased by 0.07 tons; in terms of apparent demand, rebar decreased by 2.15 tons, hot - rolled coils by 0.71 tons [9]. - **Trend Intensity**: 1 (strong - biased) [11]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Fundamentals**: Futures prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese rose. Spot prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese in Inner Mongolia were 5,200 yuan/ton and 5,600 yuan/ton respectively. Some basis, near - far month spread, and cross - variety spread values changed [14]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Ningxia Zhongwei Yuexin overhauled a 25,500kva ferrosilicon furnace, reducing daily output by about 70 tons. As of November 14th, the total manganese ore inventory decreased by 12.05 tons. There were price changes in ferrosilicon and silicomanganese in different regions, and electricity prices in some areas fluctuated. Some companies finalized ferrosilicon procurement prices [14][15][16]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 (neutral) [17]. Coke and Coking Coal - **Fundamentals**: The previous day's JM2601 coking coal futures price was 1,210 yuan/ton, up 18 yuan (1.5%); J2601 coke futures price was 1,710 yuan/ton, up 40.5 yuan (2.4%). Spot prices remained mostly unchanged. Some basis and spread values changed [18]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The National Development and Reform Commission organized a video conference on energy supply guarantee for the 2025 - 2026 heating season [19]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 (neutral) [19]. Logs - **Fundamentals**: Futures prices of different contracts remained mostly unchanged. Spot prices of various types of logs in different regions remained stable. Some basis and spread values changed [21]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The General Administration of Customs decided to abolish the announcement on suspending the import of US logs from November 10, 2025 [23]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 (neutral) [23].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The Fed is divided on future interest rate cuts, with market risk appetite difficult to repair, and the market is waiting for non - farm payroll data and NVIDIA's earnings report. [13] - Gold prices are in a downward trend, and the market's expectation of a December rate cut by the Fed is decreasing. [16] - The US dollar shows a short - term volatile trend as the market focuses more on hawkish statements. [21] - The domestic stock market is in a volatile adjustment, and the market's risk - aversion sentiment has increased. [24] - The bond market is slightly stronger but is likely to remain in a volatile pattern in the short term. [27] - Most commodity markets show volatile trends, with different supply - demand situations and price trends in various sectors. [28][32][34] 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Financial News and Comments 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - Fed officials are divided on future interest rate cuts. Market risk appetite is difficult to repair, and it is recommended to wait and see. [13][14] 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (Gold) - The US November New York Fed Manufacturing Index is higher than expected. Gold prices continue to fall, and it is recommended to observe whether the $4000 mark can be held. [15][16][17] 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - Trump's statement on Venezuela and Waller's support for a rate cut. The Fed is divided, and the US dollar shows a short - term volatile trend. [18][20][21] 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - The domestic stock market is in a volatile adjustment, with a slight reduction in trading volume. It is recommended to stop buying long positions and consider reducing exposure if the market continues to correct. [23][24][25] 3.1.5 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank conducts a 7 - day reverse repurchase operation. The bond market is slightly stronger but is likely to remain in a volatile pattern. It is recommended to adopt a volatile mindset. [27][28] 3.2 Commodity News and Comments 3.2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - Palm oil inventory increases, and exports decline. It is recommended to wait and see and be cautious about bottom - fishing. [28][29][30] 3.2.2 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - Steel prices rebound, but the fundamental contradiction is not fundamentally alleviated. It is recommended to adopt a volatile mindset. [32][33] 3.2.3 Black Metals (Steam Coal) - International steam coal prices are strong. Coal prices are supported but difficult to break through the 900 - yuan mark. [34] 3.2.4 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - Deep - processing enterprise profits decline slightly. It is recommended to conduct band operations. [36] 3.2.5 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - A Canadian mining company acquires an iron ore project. Iron ore prices are in a volatile pattern with support from downstream valuation and pressure from fundamentals. [37][38] 3.2.6 Black Metals (Coking Coal/Coke) - The coking coal market in East China is strong. Short - term fundamentals change little, and prices are in a volatile pattern. [39][40] 3.2.7 Agricultural Products (Red Dates) - Xinjiang red dates are almost off the tree. The futures price is slightly up, and it is recommended to focus on price competition and acquisition progress in the production area. [40][41] 3.2.8 Agricultural Products (Corn) - Corn prices rise. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines and pay attention to the grain - selling progress in North China and wheat auctions. [42][43] 3.2.9 Non - Ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - A company's US battery factory plans to start production. Polysilicon prices are expected to remain stable in November, and it is recommended to focus on range - trading opportunities. [44][45][46] 3.2.10 Non - Ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - An organic silicon industry meeting may determine production - cut targets. It is recommended to go long on industrial silicon at low prices. [47][48] 3.2.11 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lead) - Lead inventory increases before delivery. It is recommended to short at high prices and wait and see for arbitrage and cross - border trading. [49][50] 3.2.12 Non - Ferrous Metals (Zinc) - A company's zinc concentrate production increases. Zinc prices may enter a high - level volatile adjustment stage. It is recommended to hold short positions, focus on medium - term positive arbitrage, and short - term cross - border arbitrage. [52][53][54] 3.2.13 Non - Ferrous Metals (Copper) - A gold company plans to split, and a copper mine in Congo has an accident. Copper prices are expected to be in a wide - range volatile pattern, and it is recommended to go long at low prices and wait and see for arbitrage. [55][56][57] 3.2.14 Non - Ferrous Metals (Nickel) - LME nickel inventory increases. Nickel prices are under pressure in the short term, and it is necessary to focus on Indonesia's supply - contraction measures. [58][59][60] 3.2.15 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - A company submits a lithium project feasibility study report. Lithium carbonate prices are expected to be strong in the short term, but it is not recommended to chase the rise. [61][62] 3.2.16 Energy Chemicals (Crude Oil) - Sanctions on Russian oil companies may have a long - term negative impact. Oil prices are in a short - term volatile pattern. [63][64] 3.2.17 Energy Chemicals (Asphalt) - Asphalt inventory decreases. Prices are expected to be stable and weak in the short term. [64][65] 3.2.18 Energy Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - The caustic soda market in Shandong has a downward - moving trading center. The market is expected to be in a weak volatile pattern. [66][67] 3.2.19 Energy Chemicals (Urea) - A pesticide standardization committee is established. Urea prices are in a volatile pattern, and the 01 contract is expected to operate in the range of 1560 - 1760 yuan/ton. [68][69][70] 3.2.20 Energy Chemicals (Styrene) - Pure benzene inventory in East China ports increases. It is recommended to wait and see for pure benzene and styrene. [71][72][74] 3.2.21 Energy Chemicals (Soda Ash) - The soda ash market in Shahe has a general trend. The short - term market is expected to be volatile, and a bearish view is taken in the medium term. [75] 3.2.22 Energy Chemicals (Float Glass) - Float glass prices in the Shahe market fall. The market is in a multi - empty game, and it is recommended to wait and see. [76] 3.2.23 Shipping Index (Container Freight Rate) - CMA CGM releases its Q3 results. The 12 - 02 spread has converged, and the market is expected to return to fundamental logic. [77][78][79]

中金 11 月数说资产 20251114 10 月份的经济数据表现如何？有哪些主要变化？ 10 月份的经济数据整体放缓，主要由于技术提升、季末效应消退以及需求依然 疲软。具体来看，工业增加值和服务业生产指数分别从上个月的 6.5%和 5.6% 下降至 4.9%和 4.6%。消费方面，社会消费品零售总额增速从 3.0%回落至 2.9%，其中以旧换新的相关品类零售增速降至负 2.2%。固定资产投资 1-10 月累计同比从上个月的负 0.5%进一步回落至负 1.7%，单月环比也从负 0.9% 回落到负 1.6%。 分行业来看，各行业表现如何？ 分行业来看，除了公用事业、汽车、交运设备等少数行业同比增速有所回升外， 大部分行业增速均有回落。工业方面，出口交货值同比转负，同时内需偏弱， 能源金属方面，10 月原油加工量维持高位，石油表观消费同比增长 4%-5%，支撑油价，预计四季度布伦特油价中枢约 65 美元/桶。基础金 属下游需求走弱，对黑色金属价格持谨慎态度，长期看好 2026 年铜铝 价格中枢。 轻工零售美妆行业内销板块业绩偏弱，需政策刺激，但赛道间分化明显， 看好潮玩、美妆等基本面坚实且具成长性的赛道，以及 A ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - RB2601 and HC2601 are expected to first decline and then rise, with limited room for further decline. Due to coal supply guarantees, iron ore price stabilization, and the expectation of supply - demand balance after the accumulation of production - cut effects [6][7][8]. - J2601 and JM2601 are expected to fluctuate weakly. Affected by coal supply guarantees, increased coal inventories, and potential oversupply, they face downward pressure [6][9][10]. - I2601 is expected to have a narrow - range fluctuation. Although the demand side is weak, the decline in coking coal prices eases the pressure on iron ore, and the technical support provides some support for prices [11][12][83]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Black Variety Strategy Recommendation | Strategy Type | Target | Latest Price | Direction | Dominant Factors | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Single - side Strategy | RB2601 | 3053 | First decline then rise | Coal - coking concessions, stabilized iron ore prices, relatively resistant steel prices, declining five - major steel products output, accelerated destocking of steel social inventory, weak seasonal demand, and the expectation of supply - demand balance [6] | | | HC2601 | 3256 | First decline then rise | Similar to RB2601 [6] | | | J2601 | 1669.5 | Fluctuate weakly | Coal supply guarantees, rising port coke inventory, increased Mongolian coal customs clearance, increased coking coal inventory in coking plants and ports, and the 1 - month delivery contract [6] | | | JM2601 | 1192 | Fluctuate weakly | Similar to J2601 [6] | | Inter - period Arbitrage | I2601 | 772.5 | Narrow - range fluctuation | Decline in Australian and Brazilian shipments to ports, decline in the output and apparent demand of five - major steel products, recovery of daily hot - metal output, repair of steel mill profits, and the first shipment of Simandou iron ore [6] | 3.2 Steel 3.2.1 Fundamental Analysis - **Price**: On November 14, the prices of major rebar and hot - rolled coil spot markets turned stable with a slight increase [13]. - **Blast Furnace and Output**: The blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills and the average daily output of key large and medium - sized enterprises' crude steel increased [13]. - **Hot - Metal and Electric Furnace**: The daily average hot - metal output and the capacity utilization rate of 87 independent electric arc furnace steel mills increased [17]. - **Five - Major Steel Products**: The weekly output of rebar and hot - rolled coil decreased, the rebar inventory in steel mills decreased, and the hot - rolled coil inventory increased slightly [17]. - **Social Inventory**: The social inventory of rebar and hot - rolled coil decreased [21]. - **Downstream Demand**: From January to October, real estate investment decreased, while automobile and metal - cutting machine tool production increased [21]. - **Apparent Consumption and Disk Profit**: The apparent consumption of rebar and hot - rolled coil decreased, and the loss of rebar 2601 contract disk profit narrowed [24]. - **Spot Rebar Gross Profit**: The loss of long - process and short - process steel mills' spot rebar gross profit showed different trends [29]. 3.2.2 Conclusions and Recommendations - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: Expected to first decline then rise, with limited downward space. It is advisable to consider buying for hedging or investment after mid - November when the basis is large [31][32]. - **Basis**: The rebar basis is expected to fluctuate between 100 - 170 yuan/ton, and the hot - rolled coil basis is expected to fluctuate between - 30 - 40 yuan/ton [34][36]. 3.3 Coke and Coking Coal 3.3.1 Fundamental Analysis - **Price**: The price of major coke spot markets turned stable after rising for two weeks, and the price of major coking coal markets continued to rise in some markets [38]. - **Output and Capacity Utilization**: The daily average output and capacity utilization rate of 230 independent coking plants decreased, while those of 247 steel enterprises increased [38]. - **Inventory and Profit**: Coke port inventory increased, steel enterprise coke inventory decreased, coking plant coke inventory decreased, and the average profit per ton of coke in independent coking enterprises continued to lose money [41]. - **Mine Output and Inventory**: The daily average output and开工 rate of 523 sample mines increased, the fine - coal inventory decreased slightly, and the raw - coal inventory increased [41]. - **Coking Coal Import and Inventory**: From January to September, coking coal imports decreased. On November 14, port coking coal inventory decreased, coking plant coking coal inventory decreased slightly, and steel enterprise coking coal inventory increased [46]. - **Raw Coal and Coke Output**: From January to October, raw coal and coke output increased [46]. 3.3.2 Conclusions and Recommendations Coke and coking coal futures still need to digest the strong negative news. It is advisable to try the strategy of selling at high prices for hedging or investment [51][52]. 3.4 Iron Ore 3.4.1 Fundamental Analysis - **Price and Spread**: As of November 13, the 62% Platts iron ore index declined. On November 14, the price of 61.5% PB powder in Qingdao Port increased slightly, and the spreads between different ore types changed [53]. - **Inventory and Unloading Volume**: On November 14, the inventory of 45 ports increased, the average daily unloading volume increased, the inventory available days of steel mills remained unchanged, and the sintered powder ore inventory of sample steel mills decreased [57]. - **Shipment and Arrival**: In the week of November 7, Australian and Brazilian shipments and port arrivals decreased. The cumulative shipments in the past four weeks decreased, and the arrival volume is expected to be high first and then low [57]. - **Domestic Mine Output and Capacity Utilization**: From January to September, domestic iron ore output decreased. As of November 14, the capacity utilization rate of 186 domestic mines increased, and the overall output is expected to be stable with a slight increase [66]. - **Port Transaction Volume and Hot - Metal Cost**: As of November 13, the 5 - day moving average of the port iron ore transaction volume decreased. As of November 14, the average hot - metal cost of sample steel mills increased [68]. - **Hot - Metal Output, Blast Furnace Operation**: As of November 14, the daily average hot - metal output, blast furnace capacity utilization rate, and blast furnace operation rate of 247 sample steel mills changed. The hot - metal output increased after six weeks of decline due to the repair of steel enterprise profits [71]. - **Five - Major Steel Products Output and Inventory**: In the week of November 14, the actual output, consumption, and inventory of five - major steel products decreased. The output decline of rebar was greater [73]. - **Transportation Cost**: As of November 12, major iron ore freight prices decreased. As of November 13, the Baltic Dry Index increased, and the Cape - size freight index decreased [79]. 3.4.2 Conclusions and Recommendations - **Iron Ore**: The price is expected to fluctuate in a narrow range. It is advisable to consider the "long rebar, short iron ore" arbitrage strategy. It is necessary to observe whether steel enterprise profits continue to improve [83][84]. - **Basis**: As of November 14, the basis of iron ore in Qingdao Port narrowed, and it is expected to fluctuate between 40 - 100 yuan/ton [84].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **螺纹**: Not clearly indicated in the given rating description [1] - **热卷**: Not clearly indicated in the given rating description [1] - **铁矿**: ☆☆☆, representing a relatively clear long - term trend and a current appropriate investment opportunity [1] - **焦炭**: ☆☆☆, representing a relatively clear long - term trend and a current appropriate investment opportunity [1] - **焦煤**: ☆☆☆, representing a relatively clear long - term trend and a current appropriate investment opportunity [1] - **锰硅**: ★☆☆, indicating a bullish/bearish bias with a driving force for price movement but poor operability on the trading floor [1] - **硅铁**: ★☆★, not clearly defined in the given rating rules, but presumably implies a certain bullish tendency [1] Report's Core View - The overall situation of the steel and related raw material market is complex, with prices mostly in a volatile state. Demand expectations are generally pessimistic, but policy easing provides some support. Each variety has its own supply - demand characteristics and price trends, and market participants need to pay attention to factors such as environmental restrictions, production changes, and macro - level events [2][3][4] Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - Today's steel futures market showed a slight rebound in volatility. This week, the apparent demand for rebar decreased slightly, production declined simultaneously, and inventory continued to fall. The demand for hot - rolled coils stabilized, production continued to decline, and the inventory accumulation pace slowed down. Iron - making water production increased, but downstream acceptance capacity was insufficient. With the decline in steel mill profits, there is still downward pressure in the later stage. The negative feedback pressure in the industrial chain remains to be alleviated. Attention should be paid to the sustainability of environmental protection restrictions in Tangshan and other places. From the October data, the decline in real estate investment continued to expand, the growth rates of infrastructure and manufacturing investment continued to decline, and overall domestic demand remained weak. Steel exports declined from their high levels. Demand expectations are still pessimistic, but policy easing still provides some support to the futures market. In the short term, it may continue the volatile pattern, and attention should be paid to market trends and marginal changes in demand [2] Iron Ore - Today's iron ore futures market was volatile, and the basis was relatively high recently. On the supply side, global shipments were slightly stronger than the same period last year. The Simandou iron ore mine was officially put into production, but the short - term production capacity that could be released was limited. The domestic arrival volume was at a high level for the same period, and port inventory continued to increase. There was some structural movement in Australian ore inventory. On the demand side, steel demand declined in the off - season, the loss situation of steel mills intensified, and although iron - making water production rebounded this week, there was still room for production cuts in the future. At the macro level, several important events had been implemented, and the short - term impact on the futures market weakened. The market began to trade the reality of a marginally looser iron ore market, and it is expected that the iron ore price will mainly fluctuate [3] Coke - The intraday coke price was volatile. The fourth round of coking price adjustments was fully implemented this week. Coking profits were still average, and daily production decreased slightly. Coke inventory decreased slightly. Currently, downstream buyers made small - scale purchases as needed, and inventory decreased slightly. Traders' purchasing willingness was average. Overall, the supply of carbon elements was abundant. Downstream iron - making water production returned to a high - level range, and the demand for raw materials remained resilient. However, the profit level of steel was average, and there was strong pressure to lower raw material prices. The coke futures price was at a premium, and the price may mainly fluctuate [4] Coking Coal - The intraday coking coal price was volatile. The production of coking coal mines increased slightly. The spot auction transactions were normal, and the transaction prices fluctuated. Terminal inventory increased slightly. The total coking coal inventory increased slightly compared with the previous period, and the production - end inventory increased slightly. Safety inspections were carried out in major coal - producing areas, and attention should be paid to the relevant impacts. Overall, the supply of carbon elements was abundant. Downstream iron - making water production returned to a high - level range, and the demand for raw materials remained resilient. However, the profit level of steel was average, and there was strong pressure to lower raw material prices. The coke futures price was at a premium, and the coking coal futures price was at a discount to Mongolian coal. The market had certain expectations for the safety production assessment in major coking coal - producing areas, and the price may mainly fluctuate [6] Silicon Manganese - The intraday silicon manganese price was volatile. A large steel mill in the north set the tender price at 5,820 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous period. On the demand side, iron - making water production rebounded to a high - level range. The weekly production of silicon manganese decreased slightly, but the production was still at a high level, and silicon manganese inventory increased slowly. The forward quotation of Comilog manganese ore increased slightly compared with the previous period. The price of spot manganese ore changed quickly with the fluctuations of the futures market and increased this week [7] Silicon Iron - The intraday silicon iron price was volatile. A large steel mill in the north set the tender price at 5,680 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 yuan/ton from the previous period. On the demand side, iron - making water production rebounded to a high - level range. Export demand increased to about 40,000 tons, with a marginal impact. The production of magnesium metal increased compared with the previous period, and the secondary demand increased marginally. Overall, demand remained resilient. Silicon iron supply remained at a high level, and the on - balance - sheet inventory continued to decline. The increase in electricity costs and the price of blue charcoal led to a certain sentiment of a bottom - bouncing rebound in silicon iron, and it is judged that the price is more likely to rise than to fall [8]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content Core Views of the Report - The current macro - level is in a relatively vacuous period, A - shares lack a clear upward main line, market trading volume remains low, and stock indices continue to fluctuate, accumulating momentum for the next upward movement. With policy support and abundant macro - liquidity, there is still strong support below the stock indices [1] - Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned of interest - rate risks, suppressing the upward space [1] Summary by Industry Categories Macro - Finance - A - shares lack a clear upward main line, trading volume is low, and stock indices fluctuate while accumulating upward momentum. There is strong support below the stock indices due to policy and liquidity [1] - Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable for bond futures, but short - term interest - rate risks are a concern [1] National Debt - Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but short - term central bank warnings on interest - rate risks suppress the upward space [1] Non - Ferrous Metals - High copper prices inhibit downstream demand, but improved macro sentiment may lead to a stronger copper price [1] - Limited industrial drivers but improved macro market sentiment lead to a stronger aluminum price [1] - Domestic alumina production capacity is continuously released, with both production and inventory increasing, and the price fluctuates around the cost line [1] - There is still a risk of LME zinc squeeze, and the zinc price is expected to remain high. However, due to domestic oversupply, caution is needed when chasing high prices, and low - buying opportunities can be focused on [1] - The Indonesian government has restricted nickel - related smelting project approvals again, but approved projects are currently unaffected. In the fourth quarter, attention should be paid to the nickel ore quota approval in 2026. The nickel price may fluctuate in the short term, and high inventory pressure should be noted [1] - Stainless steel social inventory has slightly decreased, and steel mills' production schedules in November have declined. Attention should be paid to actual production [1] - The tin raw material end has not recovered, and there are good expectations for new - quality demand. Long - term, attention can be paid to low - buying opportunities [1] Precious Metals and New Energy - The short - term upward trend of precious metal prices may slow down. When the government shutdown ends and missing economic data is released, it may affect precious metal prices [1] - For industrial silicon, northwest production capacity is being restored, southwest start - up is weaker than usual, and the impact of the dry season is weakening [1] - For polysilicon, production schedules in November are decreasing, the anti - involution policy has not been implemented for a long time, and market sentiment has faded [1] - For lithium carbonate, the traditional peak season for new energy vehicles is approaching, energy - storage demand is strong, but hedging pressure is high [1] Black Metals - For rebar, there are concerns about potential weakening of industrial demand in the off - season. After the macro sentiment is realized, attention should be paid to upward pressure, and the virtual value accumulated put strategy can be appropriately participated in [1] - For hot - rolled coils, the off - season effect is not obvious, but the industrial structure is still loose. Attention should be paid to the upward price pressure after the macro sentiment is realized [1] - For iron ore, the near - month is restricted by production cuts, but the commodity sentiment is good, and the far - month still has upward opportunities [1] - For activated carbon, short - term production profit is poor, cost support is strengthening, direct demand is okay, but supply is high, and the price rebound is limited [1] - For coking coal, the price is in a dilemma near the previous high. It is necessary to repeatedly test the support. The coke futures price has factored in the expectation of five rounds of price increases, but downstream steel mill profits are being squeezed, and the steel - coke game is intense. The short - term strategy is to wait and see, and the long - term strategy is to buy at low prices. Industrial customers can consider selling hedging [1] - For coke, the logic is the same as that of coking coal. The futures price is at a premium, and industrial customers can consider selling hedging when the futures price rises [1] Agricultural Products - For soybean oil, China's commitment to purchase US soybeans has no substantial impact on soybean oil, and domestic inventory is decreasing. It is more resistant to decline among the three oils and can be over - allocated in arbitrage. Attention should be paid to the USDA supply - demand report [1] - For cotton, the domestic new crop has a strong harvest expectation, and the purchase price of seed cotton supports the cost of lint. Downstream start - up is low, but there is rigid restocking demand. The cotton market is currently in a situation of "support but no driver", and future policies and demand situations should be noted [1] - For sugar, the global sugar supply has shifted from shortage to surplus, and the domestic new - crop supply pressure has increased year - on - year. The Zhengzhou sugar price is expected to follow the decline of the raw - sugar price [1] - For corn, short - term farmers are reluctant to sell, and some purchasers have restocking demand for high - quality corn. The spot price is firm, and the futures price rebounds. However, before the supply pressure is fully released, the upward drive is weak, and attention should be paid to farmers' selling rhythm [1] - For soybeans, the near - month purchase and crushing profit of both Brazilian and US soybeans in China is poor. Before the USDA report is released, the futures price is expected to fluctuate and adjust [1] Energy - Chemicals - For crude oil, OPEC + plans to maintain a small increase in production in December, short - term geopolitical tensions have cooled down, and Sino - US trade tariff policies have been temporarily suspended, easing market sentiment [1] - For fuel oil, similar to crude oil, short - term geopolitical tensions have cooled down, and Sino - US trade tariff policies have been temporarily suspended, easing market sentiment [1] - For asphalt, short - term supply - demand contradictions are not prominent, the "14th Five - Year Plan" construction demand is likely to be false, and the supply of raw - material Ma Rui crude oil is sufficient, with high profits [1] - For BR rubber, the cost - end butadiene support is insufficient, the supply of synthetic rubber is loose, and the high - inventory situation has not been the main suppressing factor. The short - term price has stopped falling, and attention should be paid to the subsequent rebound [1] - For PTA, gasoline profit and low benzene price support PX. Overseas device failures and domestic device maintenance have led to a decline in PTA production [1] - For ethylene glycol, the decline in crude - oil price leads to a decline in ethylene - glycol price, while the increase in coal price strengthens the cost support. The "Golden September and Silver October" peak season for polyester is ending, and domestic demand has not significantly declined [1] - For short - fiber, gasoline profit and low benzene price support PX, the PTA price has rebounded, and the short - fiber basis has strengthened. The short - fiber price closely follows the cost [1] - For pure benzene, the Asian benzene price is weak, the US pure - benzene price has increased, and there are more benzene - ethylene maintenance projects [1] - For urea, export sentiment has eased, domestic demand is insufficient, and there is support from anti - involution policies and the cost end [1] - For PVC, new production capacity is being released, the intensity of maintenance has weakened, downstream demand has declined, and orders are poor [1] - For caustic soda, there is a risk of squeeze due to pre - delivery of Guangxi alumina, reduced subsequent maintenance concentration, inventory reduction, and limited near - month warehouse receipts [1] - For LPG, the international oil - gas fundamentals are continuously loose, the CP/FEI price has weakened, the futures price has been re - valued, and the domestic spot fundamentals are stable [1] Others - For the container shipping European line, the macro - positive sentiment has been digested, the peak - season price - increase expectation has been priced in advance, and the shipping capacity supply in November is relatively loose [1]

Core Viewpoint - The monitoring of market prices for 50 important production materials across nine categories shows a mixed trend, with 26 products experiencing price increases, 23 seeing declines, and one remaining stable in early November 2025 compared to late October 2025 [2][3]. Group 1: Price Changes in Major Categories - In the black metal category, prices for rebar decreased by 3.8 yuan per ton to 3118.5 yuan, while ordinary medium plates fell by 13.7 yuan to 3411.8 yuan [5]. - In the non-ferrous metal category, electrolytic copper saw a decline of 599.6 yuan per ton, now priced at 86209.2 yuan, while aluminum ingots increased by 319.5 yuan to 21418.3 yuan [6]. - Chemical products experienced varied changes, with sulfuric acid rising by 71.0 yuan to 785.3 yuan, while methanol dropped by 86.9 yuan to 2074.4 yuan [6][10]. Group 2: Energy and Coal Prices - In the petroleum and natural gas sector, liquefied natural gas (LNG) prices increased by 86.8 yuan to 4323.9 yuan per ton, while gasoline (95) prices decreased by 93.3 yuan to 8000.3 yuan [8]. - Coal prices showed a mixed trend, with ordinary mixed coal rising by 24.4 yuan to 611.8 yuan per ton, while coking coal prices were reported at 1623.3 yuan [9]. Group 3: Agricultural Products and Fertilizers - In agricultural products, the price of rice fell by 9.9 yuan to 3909.7 yuan per ton, while soybean prices increased by 49.2 yuan to 4298.3 yuan [10]. - Fertilizer prices also varied, with urea increasing by 3.1 yuan to 1619.8 yuan per ton, while the price of glyphosate decreased by 125.0 yuan to 27375.0 yuan [10]. Group 4: Monitoring Methodology - The price monitoring encompasses 31 provinces and over 300 trading markets, involving nearly 2000 wholesalers, agents, and distributors [13]. - The methodology includes on-site price collection, telephone inquiries, and electronic communications for data accuracy [14].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Overseas, the US private - sector employment data is cooling, with the ADP small - non - farm employment in October decreasing by 45,000, the largest decline since March 2023. The small - business confidence index dropped to a six - month low. There is uncertainty in economic assessment due to potential missing economic data. In the US, the stock market is divided, the 10Y Treasury yield fell to 4.06%, the US dollar index weakened to 99.5, gold prices rose, copper prices rose, and oil prices rose by over 1% [2]. - Domestically, the A - share market opened higher and closed lower, with the trading volume of the two markets falling to 2 trillion. The micro - cap and dividend styles are still dominant over the technology style. In the short term, there may be new highs, but there is a risk of subsequent adjustments. In the long - term, it is still cost - effective to buy on dips. The bond market is oscillating, waiting for the release of October financial and economic data. The central bank emphasizes strengthening counter - cyclical and cross - cyclical adjustments [3]. - For precious metals, the optimistic expectation of interest rate cuts boosted gold and silver prices. The US Senate's bill to end the government shutdown and the expected weak economic data may prompt the Fed to cut interest rates in December. The demand for gold is expected to be strong this year and next, and the price may reach $4,700 per ounce [4]. - For copper, the market is cautious. The weak US labor market requires continuous interest rate cuts. The global mine supply is tight, and domestic social inventories are decreasing marginally. Copper prices are expected to remain high and volatile in the short term [6][7]. - For aluminum, the macro - narrative is positive. The end of the US government shutdown, the resumption of economic data, and the dovish shift in the Fed's stance are positive. The supply and demand are relatively stable, and aluminum prices will continue to be strong and volatile [8]. - For alumina, the supply pressure persists, and the price remains weak. The production capacity is high, but the market expects potential production cuts in winter, so the price is oscillating at a low level [9][10]. - For zinc, the market is worried about the deterioration of the US labor market. The LME has low inventories and a strong structure, which supports zinc prices. However, weak domestic consumption limits the upside space, and zinc prices will oscillate [12]. - For lead, the LME is strong, driving up the price of Shanghai lead. The supply shortage in the domestic market has been alleviated, and Shanghai lead is expected to be strong in the short term but may face a pull - back risk [13][14]. - For tin, the weak US employment and the slow recovery of Indonesian tin exports support tin prices. However, the volatile macro - sentiment and high raw material prices may lead to a pull - back in tin prices [15]. - For industrial silicon, the supply is contracting marginally, and the demand is weakening. The price will oscillate in the short term [16][17]. - For lithium carbonate, the current fundamentals are strong, but there are risks of increased imports and weakening demand in the future. The price will fluctuate widely [18][19]. - For nickel, the weak US labor market boosts the expectation of interest rate cuts, which is positive for nickel prices. The high cost of nickel ore limits the downside space, but the high inventory weakens the fundamentals [20]. - For soda ash and glass, there are maintenance plans for soda ash production lines, and the glass production line's daily melting volume is weakening. Both lack demand - driven price increases and may oscillate at a low level [21][22]. - For steel products, the supply and demand are both weak, and steel prices are expected to oscillate and adjust [23][24]. - For iron ore, port inventories are increasing, and the price will oscillate weakly [25]. - For soybean and rapeseed meal, the South American production is expected to be good. The market is waiting for the USDA report, and the price will oscillate and adjust [26][27]. - For palm oil, the weak US employment data boosts the expectation of interest rate cuts. The supply of rapeseed oil is tightening, and the price of vegetable oil has rebounded, driving up the prices of other oils. Palm oil prices will oscillate in the short term [28][29]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Metal Main Varieties Trading Data - The trading data of various metal contracts on November 11, including closing prices, price changes, price change rates, trading volumes, and open interests, are presented. For example, SHFE copper closed at 86,630 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan, with a trading volume of 156,444 lots and an open interest of 553,109 lots [30]. 3.2 Industrial Data Perspective - **Copper**: On November 11, SHFE copper's main contract price was 86,630 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan from the previous day. LME copper's price was 10,840 US dollars/ton, down 34.5 US dollars. SHFE copper's warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 42,964 lots, and LME copper's inventory decreased by 25 tons to 136,250 tons [32]. - **Nickel**: SHFE nickel's main contract price was 119,380 yuan/ton, down 300 yuan. LME nickel's price was 15,025 US dollars/ton, down 75 US dollars. SHFE nickel's warehouse receipts decreased by 241 lots to 32,292 lots, and LME nickel's inventory decreased by 96 tons to 253,308 tons [34]. - **Zinc**: SHFE zinc's main contract price was 22,675 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan. LME zinc's price was 3,069 US dollars/ton, down 16.5 US dollars. SHFE zinc's warehouse receipts increased by 649 lots to 70,518 lots, and LME zinc's inventory increased by 400 tons to 35,300 tons [34]. - **Lead**: SHFE lead's main contract price was 17,440 yuan/ton, down 65 yuan. LME lead's price was 2,067 US dollars/ton, up 10.5 US dollars. SHFE lead's warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 4,981 lots, and LME lead's inventory increased by 24,525 tons to 226,725 tons [34]. - **Aluminum**: SHFE aluminum's continuous third - month contract price was 21,670 yuan/ton, down 55 yuan. LME aluminum's price was 2,879.5 US dollars/ton, down 1 US dollar. SHFE aluminum's warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 64,142 lots, and LME aluminum's inventory decreased by 2,000 tons to 545,225 tons [34]. - **Alumina**: SHFE alumina's main contract price was 2,816 yuan/ton, down 13 yuan. The national average spot price of alumina was 2,869 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan [34]. - **Tin**: SHFE tin's main contract price was 288,180 yuan/ton, up 1,620 yuan. LME tin's price was 36,695 US dollars/ton, up 515 US dollars. SHFE tin's warehouse receipts decreased by 112 lots to 5,582 lots, and LME tin's inventory decreased by 20 tons to 3,015 tons [36]. - **Precious Metals**: SHFE gold remained unchanged at 948.88 yuan/gram, and COMEX gold remained unchanged at 4,116.30 US dollars/ounce. SHFE silver remained unchanged at 11,880 yuan/kg, and COMEX silver remained unchanged at 50.744 US dollars/ounce [36]. - **Steel and Iron Ore**: SHFE rebar's main contract price was 3,025 yuan/ton, down 19 yuan. The main contract price of iron ore futures was 763 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan. The inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports in China increased by 380.41 million tons to 15,819.49 million tons [36][38]. - **Coke and Coking Coal**: The main contract price of coke futures was 1,685 yuan/ton, down 58.5 yuan. The main contract price of coking coal futures was 1,213 yuan/ton, down 52.5 yuan [38]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The main contract price of lithium carbonate futures was 8.46 yuan/ton, up 0.01 yuan. The spot price of electric - grade lithium carbonate was 8.2 yuan/ton, up 0.10 yuan [38]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The main contract price of industrial silicon futures was 9,180 yuan/ton, down 110 yuan. The average price of East China's 553 oxygen - containing silicon remained unchanged at 9,500 yuan/ton [38]. - **Agricultural Products**: CBOT soybean's main contract price was 1,126.75 US cents/bushel, down 0.75 US cents. The main contract price of soybean meal futures was 3,054 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan. The main contract price of rapeseed meal futures was 2,500 yuan/ton, down 27 yuan [40].

Group 1: Investment Ratings - Steel: Oscillating weakly [1] - Iron ore: Oscillating weakly [1] - Coking coal: Oscillating [1] - Coke: Oscillating [1] - Manganese silicon: Oscillating [1] - Ferrosilicon: Oscillating [3] Group 2: Core Views - Steel market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, with cost support weakening, and the short - term disk is expected to oscillate weakly [1] - Iron ore shows an oscillating weakly trend in the short - term due to factors such as changes in supply, demand, and inventory [1] - Coking coal supply is tight, and the downstream has different procurement attitudes, so the short - term disk is expected to oscillate widely [1] - Coke supply is affected by cost, and demand is influenced by steel mills' production, with the short - term disk expected to oscillate widely [1] - Manganese silicon has a complex fundamental situation with multiple factors intertwined, and the overall is in an oscillating pattern [1] - Ferrosilicon's current fundamental support is weak, and it is expected to fluctuate with the black market in the short - term [3] Group 3: Summary by Sections Research Views - **Steel**: The rebar futures price decreased, the spot price dropped slightly, and the demand entered the off - season. The steel mills' losses expanded, and the cost support weakened, so the short - term disk is expected to oscillate weakly [1] - **Iron ore**: The futures price oscillated, the supply from Australia and Brazil decreased, the demand (iron - water output) declined, and the inventory increased, resulting in an oscillating weakly trend in the short - term [1] - **Coking coal**: The futures price fell, the supply was tight, the downstream procurement attitudes varied, and the short - term disk is expected to oscillate widely [1] - **Coke**: The futures price declined, the supply was affected by cost, and the demand was influenced by steel mills' production, with the short - term disk expected to oscillate widely [1] - **Manganese silicon**: The futures price oscillated weakly, the production decreased slightly, the demand (steel recruitment) declined, the cost was stable with electricity price adjustment expected, and the inventory reached a new high, so it is in an oscillating pattern [1] - **Ferrosilicon**: The futures price oscillated weakly, the production cost increased significantly, the supply was relatively stable, the demand (steel recruitment) decreased, and the inventory reached a new high, so it is expected to fluctuate with the black market [3] Daily Data Monitoring - **Contract spreads**: Different contracts of various varieties have different spread values and changes, such as the 1 - 5 month spread of rebar being - 64.0 with a - 6.0 change [4] - **Basis**: The basis values and their changes of different contracts of various varieties are presented, for example, the 01 contract basis of rebar is 165.0 with a 19.0 change [4] - **Spot prices**: The latest spot prices and their changes of various varieties in different regions are given, like the Shanghai rebar spot price is 3190.0 with no change [4] - **Profits and spreads**: Information on profits (such as rebar's disk profit) and cross - variety spreads (such as the coil - rebar spread) is provided, for example, the rebar disk profit is - 119.5 with a 13.6 change [4] Chart Analysis - **3.1 Main contract prices**: Graphs show the closing prices of main contracts of various varieties over the years, including rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, etc. [6][7][10] - **3.2 Main contract basis**: Graphs display the basis of main contracts of various varieties over different months, such as rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, etc. [17][18][21] - **3.3 Inter - period contract spreads**: Graphs present the spreads of inter - period contracts of various varieties, like rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, etc. [26][28][32] - **3.4 Cross - variety contract spreads**: Graphs show the cross - variety spreads of main contracts, including the coil - rebar spread, rebar - iron ore ratio, etc. [43][45][47] - **3.5 Rebar profits**: Graphs display the profits of rebar's main contracts, including disk profit, long - process profit, and short - process profit [48][52] Black Research Team Members Introduction - Qiu Yuecheng has nearly 20 years of experience in the steel industry, with multiple industry honors [54] - Zhang Xiaojin has rich experience in resource - product research and many industry honors [54] - Liu Xi is good at fundamental supply - demand analysis based on industrial chain data [54] - Zhang Chunjie is good at investment trading strategies and combining financial theory with industrial operations [55]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No information provided in the given content. Core Views of the Report - A-shares showed a shrinking volume and oscillating trend, with sector rotation continuing. The pro-cyclical sectors rotated upwards, while the TMT sector collectively corrected. The four major stock index futures contracts all declined, and the basis discounts of the main contracts widened [2][3]. - The pressure on funds has marginally eased, and the bond futures market showed an oscillating trend. The central bank will implement a moderately loose monetary policy, and the market liquidity is expected to return to a stable state [5][6]. - The deterioration of US employment data has boosted the expectation of interest rate cuts, and precious metals fluctuated significantly during the session but still closed higher. In the medium and long term, precious metals are expected to enter a bull market [8][9]. - The container shipping index showed a downward trend in the futures market. The spot market is still cold, and the upward trend of the main contract is difficult to sustain. It is expected to oscillate within a certain range [11][12]. - Various metals in the non-ferrous metal sector showed different trends. For example, copper prices rebounded due to the expected end of the US government shutdown and the release of liquidity risks; aluminum prices will fluctuate between event-driven factors and weak fundamentals in the short term [12][21]. - In the black metal sector, the inventories of iron and carbon elements are differentiated. The long coal and short hot-rolled coil strategy can continue to be held. The prices of iron ore, coking coal, and coke all showed a downward trend [46][54][57]. - In the agricultural product sector, the export of US soybeans is still uncertain, and attention should be paid to the USDA report on Friday [61]. Summaries According to the Directory Financial Derivatives - Financial Futures Stock Index Futures - **Market Conditions**: On Tuesday, A-shares opened higher in the morning and then oscillated weakly during the day. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.39%, and the Shenzhen Component Index and the ChiNext Index also declined. The pro-cyclical sectors rotated upwards, while the TMT sector collectively corrected. The four major stock index futures contracts all declined, and the basis discounts of the main contracts widened [2][3]. - **Operation Suggestions**: It is recommended to mainly observe. If there is a significant decline in a single day, a bull spread of put options can be arranged [4]. Bond Futures - **Market Performance**: Most bond futures contracts closed flat, and the yields of most major interest rate bonds in the inter-bank market declined. - **Funding Situation**: The central bank conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 403.8 billion yuan, with a net investment of 286.3 billion yuan. The market liquidity is expected to return to a stable state [5][6]. - **Operation Suggestions**: It is recommended to go long on dips in a single - sided strategy. For the spot - futures strategy, attention can be paid to the positive arbitrage strategy opportunities [7]. Financial Derivatives - Precious Metals - **Market Review**: The US government's "re - opening" process is progressing steadily, and the recent US employment situation has continued to deteriorate, which has supported the expectation of a Fed interest rate cut in December. Precious metals fluctuated significantly during the session but still closed higher. The international gold price closed at $4,125.67 per ounce, up 0.24%, and the international silver price closed at $51.187 per ounce, up 1.37% [8][9]. - **Future Outlook**: The US economy and employment market are still affected by the government "shutdown" and trade frictions. The probability of a Fed interest rate cut in December is increasing. Precious metals are expected to enter a bull market in the medium and long term. It is recommended to hold long positions [9][10]. Financial Derivatives - Container Shipping Index (European Line) - **Spot Quotations**: As of November 4, the freight quotations for Shanghai - European basic ports showed different ranges. As of November 10, the SCFIS European line index rose 24.5% month - on - month, and the US West route index rose 4.94% month - on - month [11]. - **Fundamentals**: As of November 10, the global container total capacity increased by 7.34% year - on - year. The eurozone's October composite PMI was 52.2, and the US October manufacturing PMI was 48.7 [11]. - **Operation Suggestions**: It is expected to oscillate within the range of 1,750 - 1,950 points. It is recommended to go long on dips for the December contract [12]. Commodity Futures - Non - Ferrous Metals Copper - **Spot**: As of November 11, the average price of SMM electrolytic copper increased compared with the previous working day, and the market procurement sentiment improved [12]. - **Macro**: The expected end of the US government shutdown is expected to release liquidity, which is beneficial to copper prices [12]. - **Supply**: The spot TC of copper concentrate is at a low level. In October, the output of SMM Chinese electrolytic copper decreased month - on - month, mainly due to the maintenance of 8 smelters. It is expected that the output in November will decrease slightly [13][14]. - **Demand**: The weekly operating rates of electrolytic copper rods and recycled copper rods increased. The downstream demand for copper has strong resilience, and there are still many purchase orders after the price decline [14]. - **Operation Suggestions**: The main contract is expected to oscillate within the range of 85,500 - 87,500 yuan/ton [16]. Aluminum Oxide - **Spot**: On November 11, the average price of SMM Shandong aluminum oxide increased, while the prices in other regions were flat. The short - term supply pattern is gradually loosening, and the spot price is loose [16]. - **Supply**: In October, the output of Chinese metallurgical - grade aluminum oxide increased year - on - year and month - on - month. It is expected that the supply surplus pattern will continue in November, and high - cost enterprises may reduce production [17]. - **Operation Suggestions**: The main contract is expected to oscillate weakly within the range of 2,750 - 2,900 yuan/ton [18]. Aluminum - **Spot**: On November 11, the average price of SMM A00 aluminum increased, and the market shipment was active at high prices, but the actual transaction was less [19]. - **Supply**: In October, the domestic electrolytic aluminum output increased year - on - year and month - on - month. It is expected that the daily output of aluminum ingots may decline slightly in November due to environmental protection restrictions [19]. - **Operation Suggestions**: The main contract is expected to oscillate within the range of 21,000 - 21,800 yuan/ton. It is recommended to go short on rallies in the short term [21]. Zinc - **Spot**: On November 11, the average price of SMM 0 zinc ingots increased, and the downstream demand was weak, with only a small amount of rigid demand replenishment [24]. - **Supply**: The supply of the zinc industry chain is gradually loosening, and the TC has turned from rising to falling. It is expected that the supply pressure will be limited in the future [25]. - **Demand**: The operating rates of the three primary processing industries of zinc showed a weak trend, and the overall demand did not exceed expectations. The export window of refined zinc is open, which may boost domestic zinc prices [26]. - **Operation Suggestions**: The main contract is expected to oscillate within the range of 22,300 - 23,000 yuan/ton [27]. Tin - **Spot**: On November 11, the price of SMM 1 tin increased, and the market trading was relatively cold [28]. - **Supply**: The supply of tin ore is still tight, and the processing fee of smelters remains at a low level. It is expected that the improvement of tin ore supply this year is limited [31]. - **Demand**: The demand is still weak, and the order volume of the solder industry has decreased significantly. Although some tin consumption has been driven by AI and the photovoltaic industry, it is difficult to make up for the decline in traditional consumption [31]. - **Operation Suggestions**: Hold long positions and pay attention to the supply recovery in Myanmar in the fourth quarter [31]. Nickel - **Spot**: As of November 11, the average price of SMM1 electrolytic nickel increased slightly [31]. - **Supply**: The production of refined nickel is still at a high level, but it is expected to decrease month - on - month [32]. - **Demand**: The overall demand for electroplating and alloys is relatively stable, while the demand for stainless steel is general. The demand for ternary materials has improved in the short term, but there is new production capacity in the medium term [32]. - **Operation Suggestions**: The main contract is expected to oscillate within the range of 118,000 - 124,000 yuan/ton. Pay attention to macro - expectations and Indonesian industrial policies [33]. Stainless Steel - **Spot**: As of November 11, the prices of Wuxi Hongwang 304 cold - rolled steel decreased, and the raw material cost support declined [35]. - **Supply**: In October, the domestic stainless steel production increased month - on - month. It is expected that the production will decrease in November. The production of the 300 - series still remains at a high level [36]. - **Operation Suggestions**: The main contract is expected to oscillate weakly within the range of 12,400 - 12,800 yuan/ton. Pay attention to macro - expectations and steel mill supply [37]. Lithium Carbonate - **Spot**: As of November 11, the prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate increased, and the spot trading was still light [38]. - **Supply**: In October, the output of lithium carbonate increased year - on - year and month - on - month. The production last week increased slightly, mainly driven by lithium spodumene and mica [39]. - **Demand**: The demand is generally optimistic, and the production schedules of iron - lithium and ternary materials are expected to increase month - on - month [39]. - **Operation Suggestions**: Pay attention to the performance near the previous high pressure level. The short - term view is wide - range oscillating adjustment [41]. Polysilicon - **Spot Price**: On November 12, the prices of polysilicon remained unchanged. The demand is expected to decline, and the silicon wafer price has decreased [42]. - **Supply**: In November, the production of polysilicon is expected to decline to about 120,000 tons [42]. - **Demand**: The demand at all levels is expected to decline, and there is still an expectation of inventory accumulation [43]. - **Operation Suggestions**: It is expected to oscillate at a high level. Pay attention to the support of the spot price and the digestion of warehouse receipts [44]. Industrial Silicon - **Spot Price**: On November 12, the prices of industrial silicon in various regions remained unchanged [46]. - **Supply**: In October, the production of industrial silicon increased, and it is expected to decline to about 400,000 tons in November [46]. - **Demand**: The demand is expected to decline slightly, mainly due to the decrease in polysilicon production [46]. - **Operation Suggestions**: It is expected to oscillate at a low level within the range of 8,500 - 9,500 yuan/ton. Pay attention to the digestion of warehouse receipts after the centralized cancellation of the November contract [47]. Commodity Futures - Black Metals Steel - **Spot**: The spot prices of steel remained stable, and the basis weakened [47]. - **Cost and Profit**: The cost of iron elements has weak support, while the cost of carbon elements has support. The current profit ranking is billet > hot - rolled coil > rebar > cold - rolled coil [48]. - **Supply**: The production of iron elements increased year - on - year from January to September. Recently, the molten iron output has declined, and the production of five major steel products has also decreased [48]. - **Demand**: The domestic demand expectation is still weak, while the export remains at a high level. The current apparent demand has declined [48]. - **Operation Suggestions**: Hold the long coal and short hot - rolled coil strategy. Observe unilaterally and pay attention to the support levels of rebar and hot - rolled coil [50]. Iron Ore - **Spot**: As of November 11, the price of mainstream iron ore powder remained stable [51]. - **Futures**: The iron ore futures prices declined, and the 1 - 5 spread strengthened [52]. - **Demand**: The daily molten iron output decreased, and the demand for iron ore decreased [53]. - **Supply**: The global shipment and arrival volume of iron ore decreased last week [53]. - **Operation Suggestions**: Observe unilaterally. Arrange the long coking coal and short iron ore strategy [54]. Coking Coal - **Futures and Spot**: The coking coal futures prices declined, while the domestic coking coal spot market continued to be strong, and the Mongolian coal price followed the futures to decline [55]. - **Supply**: The production capacity utilization rate of sample coal mines decreased, and the production of raw coal and clean coal decreased [55][56]. - **Demand**: The iron water output declined significantly, and the coking plant's start - up decreased slightly. The steel mill's replenishment demand weakened [56]. - **Operation Suggestions**: Consider the coking coal 1 - 5 positive arbitrage strategy. The single - sided view is oscillating, with the range of 1,170 - 1,290 yuan/ton [57]. Coke - **Futures and Spot**: The coke futures prices declined, and the mainstream coke enterprises initiated the fourth round of price increases, but it has not been implemented yet [58][60]. - **Supply**: The production of coke decreased, and the coking plant's start - up decreased [58]. - **Demand**: The iron water output declined significantly, and the steel mill's profit decreased, which suppressed the price increase of coke [59]. - **Operation Suggestions**: Consider the coke 1 - 5 positive arbitrage strategy. The single - sided view is oscillating, with the range of 1,650 - 1,780 yuan/ton [60]. Commodity Futures - Agricultural Products Meal - **Spot Market**: On November 11, the domestic soybean meal spot prices showed mixed trends, and the rapeseed meal prices decreased by 0 - 20 yuan/ton [61]. - **Fundamental News**: The US soybean export inspection volume last week was 1,088,577 tons, and the soybean harvest rate was 96% [61]. - **Operation Suggestions**: Pay attention to the USDA report on Friday as the US soybean export is still uncertain [61].