深市港股通前十大成交活跃股中，成交额居首的是阿里巴巴-W，成交金额23.32亿港元；其次是美团- W、国泰君安国际，成交金额分别为20.55亿港元、18.34亿港元。以净买卖金额统计，有8只股为净买 入，净买入金额最多的是盈富基金，净买入6.96亿港元，该股收盘下跌0.16%。净卖出金额最多的是泡 泡玛特，净卖出2.35亿港元，收盘股价上涨2.37%。（数据宝） 7月7日港股通成交活跃股 | 代码 | 简称 | 类型 | 成交金额（万港元） | 成交净买入（万港元） | 日涨跌幅（%） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 01788 | 国泰君安国际 | 港股通(沪) | 545675.26 | 16908.70 | 10.77 | | 03690 | 美团-W | 港股通(沪) | 306729.52 | 77988.25 | -1.49 | | 09988 | 阿里巴巴-W | 港股通(沪) | 241911.79 | 20000.14 | 0.29 | | 09988 | 阿里巴巴-W | 港股通(深) | 233211.00 | 8487.74 | 0. ...

Group 1 - The Hong Kong stock market completed 42 IPOs in the first half of the year, raising over 107 billion HKD, which is approximately 22% more than the total for last year, making it the highest globally [1][2] - The Hang Seng Index rose by 20% in the first half of the year, marking the largest increase in points ever for this period, surpassing 4000 points [1][2] - There has been a significant increase in IPO applications, with around 200 applications received so far, doubling from the beginning of the year, including companies from the Middle East and Southeast Asia [2][3] Group 2 - The total assets under management for ETPs in Hong Kong reached nearly 510 billion HKD, a 30% increase since 2020, with average daily trading volume increasing fivefold to approximately 40 billion HKD [3] - The Hong Kong Stock Exchange is actively promoting the listing of various themed ETFs, including those focused on innovative technology, climate change, renewable energy, and biotechnology [3][4] - The valuation of Hong Kong stocks remains attractive, with the Hang Seng Index's PE and PB ratios at 10.65 and 1.12, respectively, indicating a relatively low valuation compared to historical levels [4][6] Group 3 - The technology sector is highlighted as having significant investment value, supported by favorable policies and strong earnings growth, with expectations for further price increases [5][6] - Consumer stocks, particularly in the pharmaceutical and discretionary sectors, are expected to rise due to improved earnings growth forecasts driven by domestic consumption policies [5] - High-dividend stocks are seen as a stable return option amid global uncertainties, providing investors with a reliable income stream [5]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint highlights the domestic focus on "anti-involution" and the international attention on the US "Big and Beautiful" bill, which is expected to improve market expectations and alleviate recession concerns [1][4] - In China, major industries such as photovoltaic glass and cement are implementing production cuts and policy measures to stabilize growth and promote high-quality development [1] - The US "Big and Beautiful" bill is projected to positively impact economic growth in 2026 and 2027, with a deficit rate increase of over 1 percentage point compared to a scenario without the bill [1] Group 2 - The June PMI data indicates an improvement in market demand, with manufacturing PMI at 49.7%, up 0.2 percentage points from May, while the service sector PMI slightly decreased to 50.1% [1] - The construction sector shows significant activity, with the construction PMI rising to 52.8%, reflecting a 1.8 percentage point increase from May [1][2] - Employment data from the US shows a non-farm payroll increase of 147,000 in June, surpassing market expectations, which may reduce the necessity for short-term interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [4] Group 3 - The current economic environment presents a favorable outlook for A-shares, with improving supply-demand dynamics, easing US-China tariff issues, and positive market sentiment leading to the Shanghai Composite Index nearing 3500 points [6] - A recommended investment strategy includes a "dividend + technology" approach, focusing on dividend sectors like coal and consumption, alongside technology growth sectors such as semiconductor equipment and innovative pharmaceuticals [7]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry or Company Involved - The discussion primarily revolves around the global macroeconomic environment, with a focus on the trends in major asset classes, particularly in Europe and Asia, including China. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Global Economic Outlook**: The global economy is expected to bottom out and show slight improvement, with Europe and Asia, especially China, being potential highlights. The US economic growth is projected to slow to 1.5% [1][4] 2. **US Economic Impact**: The relatively stable US economy and its monetary policy are expected to have spillover effects, positively impacting other regions as the dollar weakens, which typically benefits non-US markets [5] 3. **European Fiscal Policies**: European countries are adopting aggressive fiscal policies, with Germany's military spending projected to exceed 160 billion euros by 2029. Market expectations for German economic growth have been revised upwards [6] 4. **Trade Negotiations**: The trade negotiations between the US and EU are progressing slowly, but a compromise is anticipated without a hard landing scenario [7] 5. **Energy Costs in Europe**: Energy costs in Europe have returned to pre-pandemic levels, which is expected to have a positive economic impact that the market has not fully anticipated [8] 6. **Emerging Markets in Asia**: Emerging markets like South Korea and China are showing better-than-expected macroeconomic performance, driven by factors such as political stability and structural economic changes [9][10] 7. **Asset Performance in 2025**: Many assets, including gold and copper, are experiencing limited volatility, with expectations for directional choices in the latter half of the year [3][12] 8. **Gold and Copper Price Trends**: Gold prices have risen significantly, but geopolitical factors may hinder short-term breakthroughs. Copper prices are influenced by inventory shifts and market sentiment, with a potential short-term upward trend [17][19] 9. **Debt Market Performance**: The global bond market is showing mixed results, with long-term bonds in the US and certain Latin American and Asian countries performing well, while Japan and Germany face challenges [14][15] 10. **China's Economic Transformation**: China's economy is undergoing significant changes, with improvements in exports, high-end manufacturing, and consumption structure, despite challenges in the real estate sector [10][24] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content 1. **Market Sentiment**: Market sentiment is gradually improving, with trading volumes increasing, indicating a positive outlook for upcoming earnings reports [31] 2. **Real Estate Sector Influence**: Despite the real estate sector's struggles, other sectors are showing positive changes, reflecting a new macroeconomic backdrop [32] 3. **Asset Bubble Discussion**: The concept of asset bubble decline is not universally applicable, as seen in different economic contexts like Japan versus the US and South Korea [11] 4. **Future Asset Direction**: The future direction of asset changes will differ from past trends, influenced by a weak dollar and structural changes in the Chinese economy [33]

Group 1: Market Outlook - The global financial market is experiencing significant fluctuations due to the U.S. tariff war, geopolitical conflicts, and the AI technology revolution [1] - Institutions are focusing on the investment opportunities and asset allocation strategies for the second half of the year [1] Group 2: Chinese Stock Market - The A-share and Hong Kong stock markets are expected to maintain a high volatility pattern, with potential upward movement if the fundamentals improve [9][10] - The technology sector, particularly in AI and 5G, is anticipated to yield excess returns due to strong demand and innovation [9][10] - A "barbell" strategy is recommended, combining high-dividend state-owned enterprises with growth-oriented technology stocks [10][11] Group 3: Currency Outlook - The Chinese yuan is projected to appreciate moderately with two-way fluctuations, supported by a stable domestic economy and potential U.S. interest rate cuts [12][13] - The current account surplus is expected to remain around 1% of GDP, providing a solid foundation for yuan stability [12] Group 4: Macroeconomic Policy - Fiscal policy will focus on growth support and structural optimization, with increased spending in key areas such as social welfare and green transformation [13] - Monetary policy is expected to remain moderately loose, with potential interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions [14][15] Group 5: U.S. Economic Policy - The "Big and Beautiful" Act may raise concerns about U.S. fiscal sustainability, potentially leading to increased market volatility [16] - The Federal Reserve's focus may shift from inflation control to growth preservation, with expected interest rate cuts in the second half of the year [17][18][19] Group 6: Global Asset Allocation - A weaker U.S. dollar may lead to a reallocation of investments towards non-dollar assets, benefiting gold, euros, and emerging market currencies [20] - A diversified global stock allocation is recommended, with an emphasis on emerging markets and alternative investments [21][22]

Group 1 - The market is experiencing an upward shift in the oscillation center, characterized by "top and bottom" dynamics, with a positive outlook for effective index breakthroughs due to monthly momentum reversal and rising trading volume [2][12][13] - Profitability is still in a bottoming phase, with expectations that the profit bottom will not arrive before the end of Q3, limiting the elasticity of the current profit cycle [2][13] - Valuation support is provided by government-backed credit policies, with a focus on stable growth and market stabilization measures [2][13] Group 2 - Structural opportunities are emphasized, particularly in "Deep Sea Technology" and "Newly Listed Stocks," alongside existing themes like "Delta G Consumption" and "Self-Controlled Technology" [3][23] - "Deep Sea Technology" is positioned as a strong thematic opportunity for the second half of the year, aligning with national strategic priorities and policies aimed at enhancing marine economic development [4][24][29] - The deep sea technology industry chain is extensive, covering upstream materials, midstream manufacturing, and downstream resource utilization, indicating a comprehensive growth potential [4][32] Group 3 - Newly listed stocks have regained prominence since September 2024, with a significant upward trend observed in their performance, correlating closely with improvements in economic confidence [5][34] - The performance of newly listed stocks is highly correlated with macroeconomic indicators, suggesting that as economic expectations improve, these stocks are likely to outperform the market [5][38] - A new index, the "Open Source Newly Listed Stock Index," has been created to better track and represent the performance of newly listed stocks, expanding the criteria to include stocks listed for up to six years [5][44] Group 4 - Current investment strategy emphasizes diversification across sectors, focusing on "Delta G Consumption," "Self-Controlled Technology," "Stable Dividends," and "Gold" [6][50] - Specific sector recommendations include domestic consumption, technology growth, cost improvement sectors, and structural opportunities in exports, particularly to Europe [6][50] - The strategy aims to capture the greatest expected differences and domestic certainties while avoiding over-concentration in any single sector [6][50]

2025 年 07 月 06 日 资产配置报告 投资要点： 本篇报告解决了以下核心问题：1、当前中国宏观经济形势如何；2、当 下最优的大类资产配置策略是什么；3、如何看待和投资红利资产。 最近一年走势 相关报告 《公募 REITs 周报：一级市场项目进展顺利，二级 市场收益承压*林加力》——2025-07-02 《公募 REITs 周报：REITs 迎里程碑事件，首批数 据中心项目获批*林加力》——2025-06-23 《资产配置报告：2025 陆家嘴论坛点评——金融 开放与改革并举*林加力》——2025-06-21 《公募 REITs 周报：REITs 指数延续涨势，产权类 本周走强*林加力》——2025-06-16 《5 月资金流向月报：资金面宽松，科创 ETF 净流 入*徐凝碧，林加力》——2025-06-15 | 研究所： | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 证券分析师： | | 林加力 S0350524100005 | | | | linjl01@ghzq.com.cn | | 联系人 | ： | 许潇琦 S0350125030006 | | | | xuxq01@ghzq.co ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [2] Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes the growth certainty amidst fluctuations in the light industry manufacturing sector, particularly focusing on the export chain narrative becoming clearer [2] - The report highlights the stability in paper prices and the potential recovery in the pulp and paper sector, with specific companies recommended for investment [2][3] - The report discusses the impact of new tariffs on exports from Vietnam to the U.S. and suggests that this may lead to a recovery in order placements [3] - The report notes the challenges in the new tobacco sector due to increased compliance scrutiny in the U.S. and suggests potential beneficiaries of this trend [4] - The report outlines the performance of various sectors including e-commerce, electrical lighting, and home furnishings, indicating growth opportunities and strategic expansions [7][9][10] Summary by Sections Pulp and Paper - Pulp prices are stabilizing with South American bleached eucalyptus pulp prices at $500-510 per ton, and domestic pulp mills are facing rising costs [2] - Companies like Sun Paper and Xianhe are recommended for their integrated pulp and paper operations and profitability improvements [2] Exports - The recent tariff agreement between the U.S. and Vietnam is expected to enhance order placements and stabilize the export chain [3] - Companies with strong global layouts and those facing short-term performance pressures are highlighted for potential investment [3] New Tobacco - The U.S. FDA is increasing compliance checks, leading to a significant drop in e-cigarette shipments, which may benefit compliant companies [4] E-commerce - "Jiao Ge Peng You" reported impressive sales during the 618 shopping festival, indicating a successful technology-driven retail strategy [7] Electrical Lighting & Smart Home - Bull Group's international strategy is yielding results with significant sales in Germany, while other companies are exploring high-end markets [9] Home Furnishings - The launch of new product systems by "Bei Wo" and the anticipated restart of national subsidies are expected to boost consumer confidence in home furnishings [10] Consumer Products - The report notes a divergence in growth trends within the personal care sector, with certain brands showing strong performance [11] Gold and Jewelry - The demand for boutique gold jewelry is strengthening, with stable gold prices expected to support overall industry recovery [12][13] Two-Wheel Vehicles - Tao Tao Vehicle's strong profit forecast indicates growth potential in the electric vehicle sector [14] Cross-Border E-commerce - Companies like Xiao Shang Pin Cheng and Ji Hong are expected to perform well as tariff uncertainties diminish [15] Packaging - Yongxin and Yutong Technology are projected to maintain steady growth, with a focus on functional and differentiated materials [16]

Core Viewpoint - The performance of fund managers is crucial for investors, especially for actively managed funds, and the article highlights the top-performing fund managers in the first half of 2025 based on their returns and management scale [2][34]. Group 1: Overall Fund Manager Performance - A total of 3,358 fund managers reported their performance for the first half of 2025, with an average return of 4.89% and a median return of 0.93% [2]. - Larger fund managers tend to have lower overall returns, possibly due to a lack of index-driven market trends and a higher proportion of managers handling bond and money market funds [2][34]. Group 2: Fund Managers with Over 100 Billion Yuan - Among fund managers managing over 100 billion yuan, the average return was 2.50% with a median of 0.93%, and the threshold for the top 20 was approximately 15.60% [3][4]. - The top five fund managers in this category are: 1. Wu Yuanyi (Guangfa Fund) - 32.19% return 2. Yan Siqian (Penghua Fund) - 24.65% return 3. Zhao Bei (ICBC Credit Suisse Fund) - 23.32% return 4. Yang Dong (Guangfa Fund) - 22.50% return 5. He Qi (Huatai-PB Fund) - 20.50% return [4][5]. Group 3: Fund Managers with 50-100 Billion Yuan - For fund managers managing between 50-100 billion yuan, the average return was 4.41% with a median of 1.87%, and the threshold for the top 20 was nearly 14% [11][12]. - The top five fund managers in this category are: 1. Zheng Ning (Bank of China Fund) - 58.14% return 2. Zhang Wei (Huitianfu Fund) - 42.36% return 3. Yang Zhenshao (E Fund) - 40.25% return 4. Zhao Wei (Fortune Fund) - 36.83% return 5. Nong Bingli (Invesco Great Wall Fund) - 33.00% return [12][16]. Group 4: Fund Managers with 20-50 Billion Yuan - Fund managers in the 20-50 billion yuan range had an average return of 5.31% and a median of 3.04%, with a top 20 threshold of about 21% [19][20]. - The top five fund managers in this category are: 1. Zhou Sicong (Ping An Fund) - 57.27% return 2. Peng Chenchen (Fortune Fund) - 40.22% return 3. Jin Xiaofei (Penghua Fund) - 39.85% return 4. Sang Xiangyu (Huashan Fund) - 38.69% return 5. Hao Miao (Jia Shi Fund) - 33.12% return [20][22]. Group 5: Fund Managers with 5-20 Billion Yuan - For fund managers managing between 5-20 billion yuan, the average return was 5.93% with a median of 4.03%, and the threshold for the top 20 was approximately 24.56% [23][24]. - The top five fund managers in this category are: 1. Zhang Jintao (Huabao Fund) - 41.93% return 2. Zhao Xiaoyan (Hengyue Fund) - 39.10% return 3. Chi Chenshen (Anxin Fund) - 36.26% return 4. Shan Lin (Yongying Fund) - 36.13% return 5. Zhang Jialu (Ruiyuan Fund) - 33.15% return [24][28].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current market conditions, emphasizing that economic downturns can present undervalued investment opportunities, contrary to the common belief that investments are only suitable during economic booms [10][19][18]. Market Overview - The market experienced a slight increase during the day, reaching a peak of 4.8 stars, but closed slightly down with the CSI All Share Index at 4.9 stars [1][2]. - Large-cap stocks like the CSI 300 saw minor gains, while small-cap stocks experienced slight declines [3]. - Value styles showed strong performance, with indices related to banks, dividends, and value overall rising [4][5]. - Growth styles saw a slight decrease [6]. Historical Context - The article outlines two types of bull markets: one driven by capital (e.g., 2015) and one driven by fundamentals (e.g., 2007, 2009, 2017, and early 2021) [11][12][13][15]. - It highlights that 2007 was a peak year for economic growth and corporate earnings, yet it also marked a significant market bubble [11]. - The 2009 stimulus plan led to a substantial increase in corporate earnings and a bull market, which eventually corrected [12]. - The year 2017 saw the fastest earnings growth in a decade, leading to elevated valuations [13][14]. Investment Timing - The article suggests that entering the market before fundamental improvements can yield significant returns [17]. - It warns that when most investors recognize a strong economy, it may already be too late, as valuations tend to be high at that point [18]. Economic Downturns - Economic downturns often correlate with slow corporate earnings growth, creating opportunities for undervalued investments [19]. - Historical examples include the 2008 financial crisis, where major indices reached low valuations, and subsequent recovery periods [20][21]. - The article notes that 2024 is projected to be a challenging year for corporate earnings, potentially leading to low valuations [21]. Valuation Data - The article provides valuation metrics for various indices, including P/E ratios, P/B ratios, and dividend yields, indicating the current market conditions and potential investment opportunities [24][33].