Group 1 - The Hong Kong stock market has shown strong performance in the first half of the year, with the Hang Seng Index rising by 20%, making it one of the best performers globally [1] - The "Hong Kong Three Sisters"—Lao Pu Gold, Pop Mart, and Mixue Group—have gained significant attention, with Lao Pu Gold surging by 330%, Pop Mart by 200%, and Mixue Group by 96% [2][4] - A lesser-known player, Dekang Agriculture (02419), has also performed well, with its stock price increasing by 192% this year, peaking at a 247% rise [3] Group 2 - Dekang Agriculture's growth is driven by its low valuation and strong growth potential, primarily in pig farming, which constitutes about 80% of its business [5] - The company is projected to have a stable growth rate, with a 24% year-on-year increase in pig output expected in 2024, and ambitious targets of 31% and 30% growth for 2025 and 2026, respectively [6] - In comparison, major competitors like Muyuan Foods and Wens Foodstuffs are expected to have lower growth rates of 26% and 13%, respectively [6] Group 3 - Dekang Agriculture's cost structure is competitive, with a complete breeding cost of approximately 12.4 yuan/kg, placing it among the industry's top tier [8] - The company's debt-to-asset ratio is projected to be around 62.76% by the end of 2024, which is in line with the industry average, indicating manageable financial pressure [10] - The valuation method for pig farming companies is based on head average market value during the bottom of the pig cycle, with Dekang's head average market value at 2560 yuan, which is relatively low compared to peers [12] Group 4 - The current pig cycle is characterized by overproduction, with the national breeding sow inventory exceeding the target, leading to a downward pressure on pig prices [13] - The industry has seen improvements in breeding efficiency, with the average number of piglets weaned per sow increasing significantly, contributing to higher supply levels [13][14] - Despite the challenges, there is potential for policy interventions to stabilize the market, which could lead to temporary boosts in stock performance for companies like Dekang Agriculture [15]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates a fluctuating trend in global pork production from 2020 to 2025, with specific projections for China, the EU, the US, and Brazil [1][2][3] - In 2024, China's pork production is projected to be 56.75 million tons, with a slight decrease to 55.50 million tons in 2025 due to regulatory measures on excess pig production capacity [1] - The EU's pork production is expected to decline from 21.25 million tons in 2024 to 20.90 million tons in 2025, primarily due to reduced export demand [1] - The US and Brazil are anticipated to see increases in pork production, reaching 12.94 million tons and 4.55 million tons respectively by 2025 [1] Group 2 - The global pig inventory is projected to be approximately 759 million heads by the end of 2024, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of about 2.42% [2] - China, the EU (27 countries), and the US account for 57.19%, 17.50%, and 9.94% of the global pig inventory respectively [2] - In 2024, China's pig inventory is estimated to be around 42.743 million heads, showing a year-on-year decline of 1.6% [3] Group 3 - The market size of China's pig farming industry is expected to reach approximately 1.44 trillion yuan in 2024, influenced by rising pig prices [5] - The market size is calculated based on the number of pigs slaughtered, average weight at slaughter, and average price of pigs, with the average weight assumed to be 120 kg per head [5] - In 2020, the market size peaked at 2.16 trillion yuan due to significant price increases [5]

宏观研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 【宏观快评】 各行业如何"反内卷"？ ❖ 核心观点 近期市场对供给侧改革的关注升温，参照综合求是、人民日报、工信部等官方 表态，反内卷的重点行业或包括光伏、锂电、新能源汽车、电商平台等。结合 数据可得性与行业进展，我们重点关注 5 个产业，近期其基本面均面临一定压 力，例如光伏价格偏弱但生产端持续偏强、汽车销售折扣率再度提升、钢铁水 泥价格仍然偏弱、生猪行业临近亏损等。从其反内卷措施来看，以行业自律、 行政指导、舆论监督为主，按照约束力排序，或是钢铁>生猪>汽车>水泥>光 伏，关注后续落地进展。 ❖ 一、政策如何定调？ 什么是"内卷式"竞争？参考求是中的界定，既包括企业端的低价竞争、同质 化竞争、与过度宣传营销，也包括政府端的"制造…不公平非普惠的优惠政策"、 "不顾地方产业基础和资源禀赋情况，盲目上马新兴产业、重点产业"、"保护 本地市场、扶持本地企业，设置或明或暗的市场壁垒"。 主要涉及哪些行业？综合求是、人民日报、工信部等官方表态，反内卷的重点 行业或包括光伏、锂电、新能源汽车、电商平台等。 如何"反内卷"？参照求是《深刻认识和综合整治"内卷式"竞争》的阐述， 反内卷需 ...

Industry Overview - The pig farming sector is entering a new cycle due to the simultaneous decline in pig production capacity and the turning point in chicken prices, with a stronger supply-demand imbalance leading to potential price drops and reduced profits for farmers [1] - The supply side shows steady growth in market pig supply and increasing fat pig inventory, while the demand side is currently weak due to the summer off-season, resulting in a challenging pricing environment [1] - Policies are being implemented to optimize production capacity, including a reduction in the target for breeding sows by 1 million to 39.5 million and stricter environmental regulations [1] Chicken Industry Insights - The lowest point for yellow chicken prices may have passed, with expectations for marginal recovery in the second half of the year due to improving consumer demand and seasonal consumption patterns [2] - The current yellow chicken production capacity is at a low level, and the price elasticity is primarily influenced by demand-side changes, with potential for price increases in 2025 [2] - The industry is facing challenges with many producers experiencing losses, which may limit their willingness to invest in new stock, while recent bankruptcies among top companies could further reduce supply [2] Company Analysis Pig Farming Business - The company is integrating farmer resources and innovatively entrusting the breeding of sows to farm owners, which enhances farmer participation and allows for rapid expansion of output [3] - The company has developed a competitive breeding system that reduces the age at which pigs are ready for market by 12 days and lowers feed conversion ratios, resulting in significant cost advantages [3] - Through precise management practices, the company has achieved a reduction in feed consumption per sow and improved feed formulation, maintaining industry-leading cost levels despite unfavorable raw material conditions [3] Chicken Business - The company has established a leading research and development system in yellow chicken breeding, with a diverse genetic resource pool that meets market demands [4] - The company's market share in yellow chicken has doubled from 1.3% in 2018 to 2.6% in 2024, driven by an optimized product matrix [4] - The company is focusing on developing medium and slow-growing chicken products to align with changing consumer preferences and improve product quality [4] Slaughtering Business - The company is expanding its slaughtering and processing operations to create a comprehensive food ecosystem, leveraging vertical integration to enhance efficiency [5] - Collaborations with leading international firms are being utilized to adopt advanced technologies and management practices in food manufacturing [5] Investment Outlook - The new cycle logic in the pig farming sector is strengthening, with expectations of production capacity fluctuations and clearer cyclical trends [6] - The company is projected to achieve an average profit of approximately 300 RMB per pig, supporting a market valuation of 330 billion RMB based on expected output [6] - Given the anticipated market conditions, the company's stock price could see significant upside potential, with a target price exceeding 140 RMB, translating to over 154 HKD [6]

2025 年 1-6 月，公司累计销售生猪 20.42 万头，同比上升 21.52%；累计销售 收入 31,153.23 万元，同比上升 17.49%。 2025 年 6 月末，公司生猪存栏 14.44 万头，同比上升 2.34%，环比上升 2.14%。 证券代码：603717 证券简称：天域生物 公告编号：2025-050 天域生物科技股份有限公司 2025 年 6 月养殖业务主要经营数据公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述 或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 天域生物科技股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）现将 2025 年 6 月养殖业务 主要经营数据公告如下： 一、2025 年 6 月养殖行业主要经营数据 2025 年 6 月，公司销售生猪 3.18 万头，销售收入 3,748.42 万元，环比变动分 别为 28.00%、-7.19%，同比变动分别为 61.57%、-4.33%。 1 2、基于生猪市场价格大幅波动以及公司投苗节奏变化等因素影响，未来公 司生猪销售数量和销售收入存在月度波动风险，敬请广大投资者注意投资风险。 特此公告。 天域生物 ...

2025 年 6 月养殖业务主要经营数据公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述 或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 福建傲农生物科技集团股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）现将 2025 年 6 月养殖业务主要经营数据披露如下： 一、2025 年 6 月养殖业务主要经营数据 单位：万头 | 主要产品 | 销售量 | 库存量 | 销售量同比 增减（%） | 库存量同比 增减（%） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 生猪 | 14.24 | 54.70 | +20.46 | +20.70 | 证券代码：603363 证券简称：傲农生物 公告编号：2025-078 福建傲农生物科技集团股份有限公司 福建傲农生物科技集团股份有限公司董事会 2025 年 7 月 8 日 单位：万头 月份 当月销售量 当年累计销售量 期末库存量 2024 年 6 月 11.82 138.03 45.32 2024 年 7 月 12.55 150.58 47.54 2024 年 8 月 11.83 162.41 50.69 2024 年 9 月 ...

证券代码：605296 证券简称：神农集团 公告编号：2025-081 云南神农农业产业集团股份有限公司 2025 年 6 月养殖业务主要经营数据公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈 述或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 云南神农农业产业集团股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）现将 2025 年 6 月养殖业务主要经营数据披露如下： 一、2025 年 6 月养殖业务主要经营数据 单位：万头 | 主要产品 | 销售量 | | 销售量同比增减(%) | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 当月 | 累计 | 当月 | 累计 | | 生猪 | 21.90 | 153.95 | -7.52 | 40.93 | 2025 年 6 月份，公司销售生猪 21.90 万头（其中：商品猪销售 20.79 万头， 仔猪销售 0.59 万头），销售收入 3.85 亿元。其中向集团内部屠宰企业销售生猪 3.83 万头。 2025 年 6 月份，公司商品猪价格呈现下降趋势，商品猪销售均价 14.35 元/ 公斤，比 2025 年 5 月份 ...

Group 1 - The implementation of the Private Economy Promotion Law on May 20 is seen as a "strong tonic" for the development of the private economy, particularly benefiting the beef cattle industry where private enterprises hold a significant market share [1] - The law clarifies the equal market participation status of private enterprises, enhances protection of property rights and operational autonomy, and encourages innovation, aligning with the company's strategic goals [1] - The beef cattle industry is currently facing challenges such as low beef prices, high breeding costs, and insufficient industry chain collaboration, but there are also opportunities for growth driven by policy support and changing consumer demands [2] Group 2 - To transition from "price competition" to "value competition," the focus should be on improving quality, collaboration, and overall industry structure, with innovation playing a key role [3] - The company has partnered with research institutions to develop proprietary breeds and technologies, significantly increasing the value of their products and establishing themselves as a leader in high-end beef [3] - The company is actively promoting industry cooperation and transparency through initiatives like a "cow source trading platform" and international market expansion, aiming to create a "community of shared destiny" for the beef cattle industry [3][4] Group 3 - The company emphasizes "technology + model innovation" as essential for developing a modern agricultural production system, including the establishment of a breeding resource library and the integration of smart technologies in production processes [4] - The company has implemented a comprehensive supply chain model that connects farmers to consumers, ensuring quality control and traceability from farm to table, which has resulted in a 100% product inspection pass rate over the past five years [5] - The company is expanding its business model by developing educational and tourism projects related to the beef industry, thereby enhancing its market presence and consumer engagement [5]

Core Viewpoint - The report from Guohai Securities initiates a "Buy" rating for Dekang Agriculture and Animal Husbandry (02419.HK) with a target price of HKD 154, highlighting the company's strong position in the livestock industry and effective cost management [1] Group 1 - Dekang Agriculture and Animal Husbandry is recognized as a leading player in China's full industry chain of livestock and poultry farming [1] - The company is experiencing a dual boost in its breeding cycle due to the reduction in pig production capacity and a turning point in chicken prices [1] - The report emphasizes the company's excellent cost management capabilities as a significant advantage in the market [1]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Recommended" [3] Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of the pig farming sector amidst stricter environmental regulations and rising pork prices, suggesting a focus on investment opportunities in this area [2][12] - The report highlights the expected increase in autumn grain production, driven by favorable soil conditions and government initiatives aimed at enhancing crop yields [1][11] Summary by Sections Planting Industry Chain - The current main flood season poses risks for agricultural disasters, with regional droughts and floods expected [1] - The Ministry of Agriculture aims to achieve a grain production target of approximately 1.4 trillion jin, focusing on key crops and regions [1][11] - The commercialization of genetically modified crops is anticipated to accelerate, enhancing self-sufficiency in key varieties [1][11] - Recommended stocks include Beidahuang and Suqian Agricultural Development in the planting sector, and leading seed companies like Longping High-Tech and Denge Seed Industry [1][11] Pig Farming - The average price of external three-way cross pigs is 15.17 yuan/kg, with a week-on-week increase of 4.97% [2][12] - The number of breeding sows is projected to reach 40.42 million by May 2025, with a slight increase from previous periods [2][12] - The report suggests focusing on companies with significant cost improvements and high future output elasticity, including Dekang Agriculture, Jingji Zhino, Muyuan Foods, and Wen's Foodstuffs [2][12] Key Agricultural Product Data Tracking - Corn: The average price is 2435.68 yuan/ton, with a week-on-week increase of 0.37% [24] - Wheat: The average price is 2450.52 yuan/ton, with a week-on-week increase of 0.18% [27] - Rice: The average price is 2892 yuan/ton, remaining stable [32] - Soybeans: The average price is 3926.32 yuan/ton, with a week-on-week decrease of 0.30% [39] - Cotton: The average price is 15130 yuan/ton, with a week-on-week increase of 1.54% [44] Feed and Vitamin Prices - The average price of pig feed is 2.69 yuan/kg, with a week-on-week increase of 0.75% [50] - Vitamin E averages 69.90 yuan/kg, with a week-on-week decrease of 5.16% [57]