日本财务省5月21日发布的4月份贸易统计速报显示，对美国的出口额为1.7708万亿日元，同 比减少1.8%。这是4个月来首次减少。这可能是受到了特朗普政府4月份启动的对等关税和对 汽车加征关税的影响。4月日本对美汽车出口额为5130亿日元，同比减少4.8%。 美国于4月份启动了各国统一的10%的对等关税。对日本汽车和钢铁等产品加征25%的关 税。汽车出口额虽然有所减少，但出口量增加11.8%，达到12.5817万辆，已连续4个月增 长。钢铁出口额为180亿日元，减少29.0%，出口量也减少了20.3%。 4月日本对美出口额1.7708万亿日元，减少1.8%，其中汽车出口额5130亿日元，减少4.8%…… 4月份的日本对全球整体的贸易收支逆差1158亿日元，3个月来首次出现逆差。出口增长 2.0%，达到9.1571万亿日元，进口减少2.2%，降至9.2730万亿日元。半导体的电子零部 件、食品和医药品的出口有所增长，但煤炭和原粗油的进口有所减少。 煤炭的进口量减少8.9%，进口额减少38.6%。原粗油进口量增加0.2%，进口额减少 10.1%。金额减少幅度均超过数量，可能是由于资源价格较上年同期下跌和日元升值的 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document. Core Viewpoint - Not provided in the document. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Power Coal - **Base Difference**: From May 14 to May 20, 2025, the base difference of power coal was -184.4, -187.4, -187.4, -189.4, -190.4 yuan/ton respectively, showing a downward trend [2]. 2. Energy Chemicals (1) Energy Commodities - **Base Difference**: The base difference data of crude oil, fuel oil, etc., on different dates from May 14 to May 20, 2025, are presented, such as the base difference of INE crude oil being -9.79 on May 20 [9]. - **Price Ratio**: The price ratio of crude oil to asphalt on different dates from May 14 to May 20, 2025, is given, with the price ratio on May 20 being 0.1373 [9]. (2) Chemical Commodities - **Base Difference**: The base difference data of various chemical products such as natural rubber, methanol, PTA, etc., on different dates from May 14 to May 20, 2025, are provided, for example, the base difference of natural rubber on May 20 was -40 yuan/ton [10]. - **Inter - period Spread**: The inter - period spread data of different chemical products in different periods (5 - 1 month, 9 - 1 month, 9 - 5 month) are presented, like the 5 - 1 month spread of natural rubber being 120 yuan/ton [10]. - **Inter - variety Spread**: The inter - variety spread data of different chemical products on different dates from May 14 to May 20, 2025, are given, such as the LLDPE - PVC spread on May 20 being 2289 yuan/ton [10]. 3. Black Metals - **Base Difference**: The base difference data of black metals such as rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal on different dates from May 14 to May 20, 2025, are provided, for example, the base difference of rebar on May 20 was 122.0 yuan/ton [15]. - **Inter - period Spread**: The inter - period spread data of black metals in different periods are presented, like the 5 - 1 month spread of rebar being 12.0 yuan/ton [15]. - **Inter - variety Spread**: The inter - variety spread data of black metals on different dates from May 14 to May 20, 2025, are given, such as the rebar/iron ore ratio on May 20 being 4.22 [15]. 4. Non - ferrous Metals (1) Domestic Market - **Domestic Base Difference**: The domestic base difference data of non - ferrous metals such as copper, aluminum, zinc, etc., on different dates from May 14 to May 20, 2025, are provided, for example, the base difference of copper on May 20 was 910 yuan/ton [23]. - **LME Data**: The LME data of non - ferrous metals on May 20, 2025, including LME premium/discount, Shanghai - London ratio, CIF price, domestic spot price, and import profit and loss, are presented, such as the LME premium of copper being 3.16 [30]. (2) London Market - **LME Base Difference, Shanghai - London Ratio, Import Profit and Loss**: Relevant data and trends are presented through charts [32][33][34]. 5. Agricultural Products - **Base Difference**: The base difference data of agricultural products such as soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, etc., on different dates from May 14 to May 20, 2025, are provided, for example, the base difference of soybean No.1 on May 20 was -191 yuan/ton [40]. - **Inter - period Spread**: The inter - period spread data of agricultural products in different periods are presented, like the 5 - 1 month spread of soybean No.1 being -8 yuan/ton [38]. - **Inter - variety Spread**: The inter - variety spread data of agricultural products on different dates from May 14 to May 20, 2025, are given, such as the soybean No.1/corn ratio on May 20 being 1.81 [38]. 6. Stock Index Futures - **Base Difference**: The base difference data of stock index futures such as CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 on different dates from May 14 to May 20, 2025, are provided, for example, the base difference of CSI 300 on May 20 was 32.77 [48]. - **Inter - period Spread**: The inter - period spread data of stock index futures in different periods are presented, like the next - month/current - month spread of CSI 300 being -39.6 [48].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货原油早报-2025-05-21 品种晨会纪要 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 原油 2507 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 上涨 | 偏强运行 | 地缘风险凸显，原油震荡偏强 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货能源化工板块 原油（SC） 日内观点：上涨 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：偏强运行 核心逻辑：虽然中美经贸达成实质性进展，宏观因子转向乐观态势。不过 6 月美债危机逐渐迫近， "灰犀牛"效应凸显或诱发宏观新一轮负面冲击。同时 OPEC+产油国加快增产节奏，叠加原油需求预 期偏弱。不过一则美国情报部门发 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas, Fed officials' cautious remarks and upcoming US - Japan talks led to a decline in the US dollar index and a cooling of global risk appetite. EU's 17th round of sanctions on Russia and the possible failure of the Iran nuclear negotiation increased short - term risk - aversion sentiment. Domestically, April's domestic economic data showed a slowdown in domestic demand but strong export performance. The central bank's reduction of LPR rates and commercial banks' reduction of deposit rates further eased monetary policy, boosting domestic risk appetite in the short term [2]. - Different asset classes have different trends and investment suggestions. For example, stocks are expected to be short - term volatile with a short - term cautious long - position strategy; bonds are at a short - term high and should be observed cautiously; different commodity sectors also have corresponding short - term trends and operation suggestions [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro Finance - **Macro**: Overseas, the US dollar index fell, and global risk appetite cooled. Domestically, April's economic data showed a slowdown in domestic demand but strong exports. The central bank's rate cuts and commercial banks' deposit rate cuts boosted domestic risk appetite. Stocks are short - term volatile and can be short - term cautiously long; bonds are at a short - term high and should be observed cautiously; black metals are short - term low - level volatile and should be observed cautiously; non - ferrous metals are short - term volatile and should be observed cautiously; energy and chemicals are short - term volatile and rebounding and can be cautiously long; precious metals are short - term high - level volatile and can be cautiously long [2]. - **Stock Index**: Supported by sectors such as cultivated diamonds, biomedicine, and millet economy, the domestic stock market rose slightly. With the slowdown in domestic demand, strong exports, and monetary policy easing, short - term cautious long - position is recommended [3]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold prices rose. Moody's downgrade of the US credit rating and the weakening of the US dollar supported the rebound of gold prices. The Fed's policy path is the core contradiction. Long - term, the global de - dollarization trend supports gold. For silver, due to geopolitical tensions and manufacturing weakness, short - term observation is recommended [4]. Black Metals - **Steel**: The domestic steel spot and futures markets were stable, and trading volume increased slightly. Despite the LPR rate cut, market confidence was still weak. Demand was weak, and supply was expected to remain high. Short - term, the steel market may be range - bound [5][6]. - **Iron Ore**: Iron ore prices rebounded slightly. Steel mills' profitability was good, and iron - water production was high. Supply may increase in the second quarter. Short - term, iron ore is strong, and medium - term, a short - position strategy at high prices is recommended [6]. - **Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron**: The prices of silicon manganese and silicon iron were stable. Demand weakened, and supply continued to decline. Short - term, the prices of ferroalloys will continue to fluctuate [7]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The market focused on the Russia - Ukraine cease - fire negotiation and the Iran nuclear negotiation. Oil prices were volatile and slightly higher. Short - term, a wait - and - see attitude is recommended [8]. - **Asphalt**: Asphalt prices followed crude oil and were volatile. Supply was low, and demand was boosted. Inventory transfer was smooth, and short - term, it will follow crude oil and fluctuate at a high level [8]. - **PX**: PX prices rose due to many maintenance and the resonance of the polyester sector. It will remain in a tight - balance situation. There may be a risk of decline if downstream production cuts occur [8]. - **PTA**: The increase in US orders was not universal, and the domestic market was in the off - season. There is a risk of short - term correction, and the price center will follow crude oil [9]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Supply decreased due to unexpected maintenance, and inventory decreased. However, with low downstream profits, there is a risk of short - term correction, and it will be high - level volatile [9]. - **Short - Fiber**: Polyester prices were high - level volatile, and short - fiber prices were slightly lower and overall stable. With stable downstream start - up and expected release of orders, it will continue to be volatile [10]. - **Methanol**: The price of methanol in Taicang was weak. Supply improved marginally, but overall supply was still sufficient, and demand was weak, so the price was under pressure [10]. - **PP**: The domestic PP market price was weak. Although there was a short - term inventory transfer, supply was at a high level, and demand was weak. Attention should be paid to the impact of PP exports on demand [11]. - **LLDPE**: The polyethylene market price was adjusted. Import profit was favorable, but overall pressure was not effectively relieved, and the price increase was limited [11]. - **Urea**: The domestic urea market price was stable with slight fluctuations. In the short - to - medium term, the price was strong and volatile, but in the medium - to - long term, it was under pressure due to high production and limited demand [12][13]. Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: China's April refined copper production increased. Social inventory increased, and the processing fee was low. With the approaching of the off - season and the impact of tariff reduction, copper prices are short - term volatile, and medium - term short - position opportunities can be sought [14]. - **Aluminum**: The import of primary aluminum increased. Domestic and overseas inventory changes led to a price decline, but the short - term decline space is limited. Short - term short - position should be cautious [14]. - **Tin**: Supply constraints still exist. The mid - term raw material gap is rigidly restricted. Demand is in the off - season, and short - term prices are volatile [15]. Agricultural Products - **US Soybeans**: CBOT soybean prices rose due to concerns about South American crop damage. The future rainfall in Argentina is expected to be normal, and the damage situation needs verification [16]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: The cost of imported Brazilian soybeans is expected to weaken. The supply of oil mills has returned to normal, and the basis is weak [17]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Oil**: The inventory of soybean oil increased, and the basis was weak. The inventory of rapeseed oil decreased, but the market was in the off - season. The fundamentals of soybean and rapeseed oil are expected to be weak [17]. - **Palm Oil**: BMD palm oil continued to rebound. Domestic inventory has a turning point, but import profit is still inverted. International export growth is limited, and the price increase space is restricted [18]. - **Pig**: After the May holiday, terminal demand was weak, and supply was stable. Spot prices are under pressure, and futures prices are expected to decline further. Attention should be paid to short - selling opportunities [18]. - **Corn**: Under the pressure of registered warehouse receipts, corn futures prices declined. Spot prices are expected to be weak in the short term, and futures prices are stable in the 2300 - 2400 range [19].

周二（5月20日）因美联储官员对经济发表了更为谨慎的言论，同时交易员们期待着美国与日本即将举行的会谈，其中可能包括作为贸易协议一部分的汇率 讨论。美元指数继续走软，并跌至100大关附近，最终收跌0.34%，报100.02。基准的10年期美债收益率收报4.491%；对货币政策更敏感的两年期美债收益率 收报3.977%。受益于市场仍然存在一定程度的不确定性，现货黄金先跌后涨，在欧盘时段开启涨势，并于美盘加速上行，日内大涨近2%，逼近3300美元大 关，最终收涨1.84%，报3289.98美元/盎司。周三，因美媒报道称以色列或准备袭击伊朗的核设施，黄金一度升破3300美元大关。 尽管近期黄金价格自4月创下的每盎司3,500美元历史高位大幅回调，但中长期支撑因素依旧稳固。从中长期来看，黄金仍是"买入并持有"的优质资产，尤其 在当前全球不确定性加剧的背景下。尽管美联储推迟降息且美国经济衰退风险降低，但市场预期美联储将在9月开始降息，这将进一步提升黄金的吸引力。 黄金上周四下探3120关口后迅速反弹回升逾100美元，随后震荡调整，周二大幅上涨逼近3300美元关口，目前多头走势偏强，周三早间一度上破3300美元关 口，日线 ...

首席点评： 这边风景独好 中国人民银行行长潘功胜：实施好适度宽松的货币政策，满足实体经济有效融资需求，保持金融总量合 理增长。国际局势：印度和巴基斯坦已同意在五月底前将军队撤至冲突前的位置。伊朗最高领袖哈梅内 伊：我认为与美国的核谈判不会成功。稳定向好的经济环境是发展的基石，对比纷乱的国际局势，坚定 看好国内大循环、大市场走好自己的路。 重点品种： 股指、 国债 、铜 股指： 美国三大指数小幅下跌，上一交易日股指上涨，美容护理板块领涨，国防军工板块领跌，全市 成交额 1.21万亿元，其中IH2506上涨0.45%，IF2506上涨0.63%，IC2506上涨0.58%，IM2506上涨 0.88%。资金方面，5月19日融资余额增加35.97亿元至17984.54亿元。5月7日国新办发布会发布了利好 政策，5月12日中美关税谈判取得阶段性成果，短期利好股市。当前我国主要指数的估值水平仍然处于 较低水平，中长期资金入市配置的性价比仍然较高。从当前走势看，短期暂无持续向上突破的迹象，建 议股指期货先观望，股指期权以卖权为主。 国债： 小幅下跌， 10年期国债活跃券收益率上行至1.665%。央行公开市场操作净投放17 ...

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that India plans to spend $10 billion to purchase 112 oil tankers by 2040 [1] Group 2 - This investment reflects India's strategy to enhance its oil transportation capabilities and reduce dependence on foreign shipping [1] - The initiative is part of a broader effort to strengthen the country's energy security and infrastructure [1]

Core Insights - India plans to spend $10 billion to purchase 112 oil tankers by 2040 [1] Industry Summary - The investment in oil tankers indicates India's strategic move to enhance its oil transportation capabilities [1] - This initiative may impact the global shipping industry, particularly in the oil tanker segment, as demand for new vessels could increase [1]

FF BHISTE 投资咨询业务贫俗: 训监许可【2011】1292号 2025年5月20日 欢迎关注微信公众号 板块 品种 主力合约 点评 操作建议 指数下方支撑较稳定,上方突破压力较大,可卖出 IF2506 支撑位看跌期权赚取权利金,或逢回调做多9月IM IH2506 股指 A股低开震荡,成交维持万亿水平 合约,逢高卖出9月6400执行价看涨期权做备兑 IC2506 IM2506 策略。 T2506 短期期债或处于震荡中,等待基本面指引。短期10年期国债利 单边策略上建议观望为主,关注高频经济数据和资 TF2506 国债 率可能在1.6%-1.7%区间波动,30年国债利率可能在1.85%- TS2506 金面动态。 金融 1.95%区间波动 TL2506 黄金形成"双顶"形态,行情短期在3200-3300 美元(750-770元) 窄幅震荡,卖出虚值黄金看 AU2508 穆迪下调美国信用评级 美元股债汇下跌 贵金属小幅上涨 员金属 涨期权可继续持有;白银跟随黄金波动区间在32- AG2508 33.5美元(8000-8350元) 集运指数 情绪释放充分,上涨势头或将暂缓 可考虑8-10、6-10正套 EC ...

聚烯烃产业期现日报 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1292号 2025年5月20日 张晓珍 Z0003135 PE PP价格及价差 | 品种 | 5月19日 | 5月16日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | L2505 收盘价 | 7330 | 7520 | -190 | -2.53% | | | L2509 收盘价 | 7238 | 7236 | 2 | 0.03% | | | PP2505 收盘价 | 7137 | 7248 | -111 | -1.53% | | | PP2509 收盘价 | 7078 | 7093 | -15 | -0.21% | | | L2505-2509 | 92 | 284 | -192 | -67.61% | | | PP2505-2509 | 59 | 155 | -96 | -61.94% | 元/吨 | | 华东PP拉丝现货 | 7160 | 7170 | -10 | -0.14% | | | 华北LLDPE膜料现货 | 7300 | 7300 | 0 | 0.00% | | | ...