贵金属： 连续上涨后黄金步入调整。上周美国总统特朗普释放缓和信号，一方面表示尽管他对美联储 未能更快地降低利率感到沮丧，但他无意解雇美联储主席鲍威尔。另一方面称对华关税将 " 大幅下降 " 。周末有报道称，首个贸易协议即将达成，并且很可能会是与印度签署。克利夫兰联储主席哈马克上周 四在接受采访时表示，美联储 5 月已基本排除降息可能。但她同时释放关键信息称，若经济走向有了明 确证据， 6 月存在采取政策行动的空间。美国财长贝森特最新演讲阐述中美达成贸易协议的可能框架， 称需 2-3 年。此前，特朗普一再要求美联储降息，并研究能否免去鲍威尔的美联储主席职务，并引发市 场恐慌。而随着贸易战的扰动，引发一系列的连锁反应，金融市场动荡、衰退风险加剧、去美元化、美 国债务等问题愈发凸显，伴随政策和市场的不确定性，黄金价格持续刷新历史新高。考虑美国债务压力 进一步凸显，滞胀形式进一步明确下，黄金整体维持强势，但近期在贸易战没有进一步烈化、特朗普和 美联储态度软化、滞胀预期一定程度消化、多头较为拥挤下，黄金或面临调整压力。 集运指数： 上周五 EC 低开震荡， 06 合约收于 1365.1 点，下跌 2.92% 。盘后公布 ...

日期 2025 年 4 月 28 日 行业 油脂 研究员：王海峰 021-60635727 wanghaifeng@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0230741 研究员：洪辰亮 021-60635572 hongchenliang@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3076808 研究员：刘悠然 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 农产品研究团队 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 研究员：余兰兰 021-60635732 yulanlan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0301101 研究员：林贞磊 021-60635740 linzhenlei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3055047 二、行业要闻 请阅读正文后的声明 - 2 - 每日报告 一、行情回顾与操作建议 表1：行情回顾 | 65 8 | 前结算价 : | 开盘价 : | 最高价 : | 或低价 : | | 收盘价 涨跌:涨跌幅 : | | 成交量： 持仓量 ...

文 | 魏鑫 来源 | CFC商品策略研究 编辑 | 杨兰 审核 | 浦电路交易员 近期在美国关税政策的影响下，商品整体呈现偏弱态势，短期市场受困于捉摸不定的 美国政策，以及不明朗的经济前景。2025与1984年前后，美国经济与政策的存在共 性，我们复盘20世纪80年代的大宗商品走势，寻找未来商品行情演绎的方向。 当前美国与1984年的美国，在 经济环境、政府压力、汇率、政策 方面存在四大共 性，商品长期走势存在趋同的可能。当然， 历史并不会简单重复，在阶段性的行情表 现中，或存在走势的分化 。 01 商品价格周期性：1977、1984与2025 工业金属具有较高的价格弹性，且对经济、政策的变化极为敏感。为方便复盘，我们选 取CRB现货指数作为商品价格的代表，选取道琼斯工业指数作为美股的代表，并采用月 度均值，忽略较为短期的波动。可以发现在70年代，CRB金属的走势与2018年至今十分 相似，先从低位大幅上行，在高位明显回落之后，到达比上涨前更高的价格中枢并趋势 上行；从美股的表现来看，两个阶段的趋势性变化也有相似之处。 我们也可以找到80年代初与近五年市场走势的相似性。如果单纯地刻舟求剑，会认为近 年的价格 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report analyzes various financial derivatives and commodity futures, including stock index futures, treasury bond futures, precious metals, shipping indices, non - ferrous metals, ferrous metals, agricultural products, etc. The overall market is affected by factors such as Trump's statement on tariff reduction, Fed's economic "Beige Book", and supply - demand fundamentals of different commodities. Suggestions for different products range from trading strategies like selling out - of - the - money put options, to long - short strategies and interval operations [2][3][5]. Summary according to the Table of Contents Financial Derivatives Financial Futures - **Stock Index Futures**: The export chain is picking up, and the trading sentiment of the index has risen. Although most of the four major stock index futures contracts fell, the A - share market may trade on the potential incremental stimulus policies from the Politburo meeting at the end of the month. It is recommended to sell out - of - the - money put options to earn premiums [2][3][4]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Treasury bond futures closed down across the board. In the short term, it is necessary to pay attention to the issuance of ultra - long - term special treasury bonds and the MLF roll - over. The bond market is expected to fluctuate in the short term and may rise after the implementation of reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts. Suggested strategies include interval operations, positive spread arbitrage for TS contracts, and steepening the yield curve [5][6]. Precious Metals - **Gold and Silver**: Gold and silver prices showed a differentiated trend. Gold continued to correct, while silver strengthened due to its industrial properties. In the long - term, gold still has upward momentum, but in the short term, it may be volatile. Silver is expected to fluctuate in the range of $32 - 34. It is recommended to hold long positions in silver lightly [9][10][11]. Shipping Index (European Line) - **SCFIS**: The spot prices of some leading shipping companies have adjusted, and the shipping index has shown different trends. The market expects the supply - demand situation to improve in May, and the news of tariff reduction may boost the market. It is recommended to take a long position and consider widening the spread between August and June contracts [12][13]. Commodity Futures Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The spot price of copper has increased, and the supply of copper mines is tight. The demand side is strong, and the inventory is decreasing. The copper price is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term, with the main contract reference range of 76,000 - 79,000 yuan/ton [14][17][18]. - **Zinc**: The spot price of zinc has increased, and the supply of zinc mines is abundant. The demand side is weak after the peak season. The zinc price may fluctuate in the short term, with the main contract reference range of 21,500 - 23,500 yuan/ton. It is recommended to take a short - selling approach in the medium - long term [19][20][21]. - **Tin**: The supply side is gradually recovering, and the demand side is uncertain. It is recommended to hold short positions on rebounds, with the short - term view of high - level fluctuations [21][22][23]. - **Nickel**: The market sentiment is stable, and the nickel price is expected to fluctuate. The cost has a certain support, but the medium - term supply is abundant. The main contract is expected to operate in the range of 122,000 - 128,000 yuan/ton [24][25][26]. - **Stainless Steel**: The market sentiment has recovered, but the fundamentals still have pressure. The price is expected to fluctuate weakly, with the main contract reference range of 12,600 - 13,000 yuan/ton [27][28][29]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The supply pressure is obvious, and the demand is general. The inventory is high. The price is expected to fluctuate weakly, with the main contract reference range of 66,000 - 72,000 yuan/ton [30][31][33]. Ferrous Metals - **Steel**: The peak of apparent demand has passed, and the cold - hot spread is narrowing. The supply is high, and the demand is expected to weaken in the second quarter. The inventory has decreased. It is recommended to wait and see for single - side trading and pay attention to the support at the previous low for the long - steel short - ore strategy [34][35][36]. - **Iron Ore**: The iron ore price rebounded due to macro factors. The iron water output is high, and the supply is expected to increase. The inventory is decreasing. The price is expected to fluctuate widely [37][38]. - **Coke**: The first round of price increase has been implemented, and the second round may be proposed this week. The supply and demand situation has improved marginally. It is recommended to hold the long - coke short - coking coal strategy [39][40][41]. - **Coking Coal**: The market auction has weakened again, and the inventory is high. The price may still fall. It is recommended to use arbitrage strategies and continue to hold the long - coke short - coking coal strategy [42][43][44]. - **Silicon Ferrosilicon**: The price has decreased compared with the previous period. The supply has decreased, and the demand has increased slightly. The price is expected to fluctuate weakly [45][46][47]. - **Manganese Silico - manganese**: The steel procurement price has decreased. The supply has decreased, and the demand has also decreased slightly. The price is expected to fluctuate widely [48][50][51]. Agricultural Products - **Meal**: The domestic soybean meal basis is strong, while the US soybean lacks upward momentum. The Brazilian supply pressure is still being realized. It is recommended to close short positions and consider long - term long positions at low prices [52][53][54]. - **Pigs**: The consumption support is insufficient. The spot price fluctuates. It is necessary to pay attention to the performance of second - round fattening pigs' sales. The 09 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 14,000 - 14,800 yuan/ton [55][56][57]. - **Corn**: The spot price is stable and strong. The supply is tightening in the long - term, but the short - term increase is limited. The price is expected to fluctuate within a range [58]. - **Sugar**: The international raw sugar price fluctuates weakly, and the domestic sugar price maintains a high - level shock. The market expects an increase in production in the 25/26 season, which will suppress the price in the long - term [59]. - **Cotton**: The US cotton is bottom - oscillating, and the domestic demand has no obvious increase. It is necessary to pay attention to the weather and macro factors [61].

首席点评： 原油反弹，黄金回落 特朗普称或将"大幅降低"对华关税，中国外交部：打，奉陪到底；谈，大门敞开。中国外交部发言人郭 嘉昆强调，如果美方真的想通过对话谈判解决问题，就应该停止威胁讹诈，在平等、尊重、互惠的基础 上同中方对话。一边说要同中方达成协议，一边不断搞极限施压，这不是同中方打交道的正确方式，也 是行不通的。美国 4 月 Markit 综合 PMI 超预期下降创 16 个月新低，信心挫、价格涨，制造业 PMI 不 降反升好于预期。数据表明， 4 月美国商业活动增长降至 16 个月低点，对未来一年商业前景的预期也 下降至自疫情以来最低之一；商品和服务的销售价格上涨幅度为一年多来最大，尤其是制造品价格大幅 上涨，与关税有关。就业指数低迷。 重点品种：原油、贵金属、橡胶 原油 ： SC 夜盘回落 2.25% 。有消息援引哈萨克新任命的能源部长的话说，在决定石油产量水平时， 哈萨克斯坦将优先考虑国家利益，而非欧佩克及其减产同盟国的利益。他还表示，该国未能减少三大产 油项目的石油产量，因为这些项目为海外巨头控制。路透社援引三位熟悉欧佩克及其减产同盟国会谈的 消息人士的话说，一些成员国将建议该集团在 6 月份 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The global risk appetite has significantly increased due to the US releasing signals of trade relaxation. The short - term risk preference of the domestic market is strongly supported by factors such as the Chinese foreign exchange regulator's measures to prevent RMB exchange - rate overshooting, strengthened domestic policy support, and the US - China trade relaxation signals. Different asset classes have different trends: the stock index will rebound with short - term fluctuations, treasury bonds will fluctuate at a high level, and different commodity sectors also show different trends [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Macro - finance - Overseas: The IMF has significantly downgraded the global economic outlook due to the impact of Trump's high tariffs. The US Treasury Secretary said that the trade tension between the US and China will ease, and Trump has no intention of firing Fed Chairman Powell but hopes for a rate cut, leading to a sharp rebound in the US dollar and a significant decline in global risk appetite. Domestic: The Chinese foreign exchange regulator's measures have relieved the RMB exchange - rate pressure, and the short - term risk preference of the domestic market is strongly supported [1]. 3.2 Stock Index - Driven by sectors such as logistics trade, cross - border payment, and port shipping, the domestic stock market has risen slightly. With the relief of RMB exchange - rate pressure and strengthened policy support, short - term cautious long positions are recommended [2]. 3.3 Precious Metals - The precious metals market continued to rise on Tuesday. The US government's credit damage, trade policy uncertainty, geopolitical risks, and other factors will support the short - term strength of gold. If there is a correction, it may present a long - term allocation opportunity. Silver follows gold but has greater correction pressure [2][3]. 3.4 Black Metals 3.4.1 Steel - The steel futures and spot markets rose and then fell on Tuesday, with a significant decline in trading volume. The real demand recovery lacks sustainability, and the supply remains high. The short - term steel market is recommended to be treated with an interval - oscillation mindset [4]. 3.4.2 Iron Ore - The iron ore futures and spot prices fell slightly on Tuesday. The ore fundamentals are still good, but if the steel prices remain low, iron ore may experience a supplementary decline [5]. 3.4.3 Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron - The spot prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese remained flat on Tuesday. The demand for ferroalloys is okay, but the operating rates of silicon manganese and silicon iron enterprises have decreased. The short - term ferroalloy prices are recommended to be treated with an interval - oscillation mindset [6]. 3.5 Energy and Chemicals 3.5.1 Methanol - The methanol price in Taicang fluctuated slightly. The supply and demand pressure is expected to be small. The 05 contract price will mainly oscillate, and the 09 contract has a large supply - expectation pressure, waiting for a short - selling opportunity on a rebound [7]. 3.5.2 PP - The domestic PP market quotation was slightly adjusted. Although there is new production capacity, the supply reduction on the supply side will relieve the overall pressure, and the price is expected to oscillate and recover [8]. 3.5.3 LLDPE - The PE market price was adjusted. The near - month price has limited downward space due to low - inventory support. The 09 contract's supply and demand situation needs to be tracked, and the long - term price is still under pressure due to new production capacity release [9]. 3.6 Non - ferrous Metals 3.6.1 Copper - The copper price rose due to the weakening of the US dollar. The fundamentals are okay, and with the improvement of market risk preference and the expectation of domestic policy strengthening, the copper price will continue to rebound with short - term fluctuations [10]. 3.6.2 Aluminum - The domestic fundamentals of aluminum are good, with significant inventory reduction. There is short - term rebound space, but it is still bearish in the medium term [10]. 3.6.3 Tin - The supply of tin is gradually recovering, and the demand is differentiated. The short - term tin price will rebound, but the rebound space is limited [11]. 3.7 Agricultural Products 3.7.1 US Soybeans - The CBOT soybean closed higher. The US soybean planting progress is slightly faster, and the weather conditions vary in different regions [12]. 3.7.2 Soybean Meal - Since mid - April, the soybean meal spot basis has been strongly pulled up, but it may quickly decline later. The risk of a decline after May Day is relatively high [13]. 3.7.3 Rapeseed Meal - Rapeseed meal has entered the peak demand season, but the supply risk premium has declined. The short - term price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is expected to continue to widen [13]. 3.7.4 Oils - The inventory of soybean oil is accelerating to decline, the rapeseed oil is in the off - season, the Malaysian palm oil inventory has reached an inflection point, and the domestic palm oil is less driven by cost [14]. 3.7.5 Pigs - The current market is mainly trading on seasonal trends. After the second - fattening stimulates the spot price to rise, the demand matching is low, and the spot price may be under pressure around May [14]. 3.7.6 Corn - The upper - limit pressure of the current corn price range is due to weak demand and high inventory, while the lower - limit support comes from low inventory in the producing areas, risk premium, and policy expectations. The C05 contract may decline to narrow the basis [15].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the content Core Views - Trump's tariff policy has led to significant fluctuations in overseas stock markets, suppressing market risk appetite. However, domestic monetary policy tools have sufficient room for adjustment, and institutions such as Central Huijin have increased their holdings of ETFs to stabilize the market. Policy encourages long - term capital to enter the market. [2][4] - The economic growth in the first quarter was good, but there may be pressure in the second quarter due to tariffs. Interest rates are in a game stage, expected to remain volatile in the short - term. [6] - There are differences between the net long positions of foreign gold management funds and the holdings of gold ETFs, and there is a risk of a short - term pullback in gold prices. [7] - The prices of various metals and energy chemicals are affected by factors such as supply and demand, policies, and tariffs, showing different trends. [10][11][40] Summaries by Categories Macro - financial Stock Index - The previous trading day saw mixed performance of major indexes, with a decline in trading volume. Macro news includes national measures to stabilize the stock market and real estate, and Trump - related tariff and interest - rate remarks. The financing amount decreased, and the overnight Shibor rate increased. [2] - The P/E ratios, P/B ratios, and dividend yields of major indexes are provided, along with the basis ratios of stock index futures. [3] - Affected by Trump's tariff policy, overseas stock market fluctuations suppress risk appetite. It is recommended to go long on IH or IF futures related to the economy and IC or IM futures related to "new - quality productivity" after the tariff impact weakens. The strategy is to buy IM long - positions on dips. [4] Treasury Bonds - On Friday, the main contracts of TL and T rose, while TF and TS fell. Fiscal revenue data shows a decline in tax revenue and an increase in non - tax revenue. Trump called for the Fed to lower interest rates. The central bank conducted reverse repurchase operations, achieving a net injection. [5][6] - Economic growth in the first quarter was good, but there may be pressure in the second quarter. Interest rates are in a game stage, expected to remain volatile in the short - term. Attention should be paid to policy signals from the end - of - April meeting and economic data. [6] Precious Metals - The prices of Shanghai gold and COMEX gold rose, while Shanghai silver and COMEX silver fell. Trump expressed confidence in a tariff agreement, and the VIX index declined. The net long positions of foreign gold management funds decreased, while the holdings of global gold ETFs increased significantly. There is a risk of a short - term pullback in gold prices. [7] - It is expected that the Fed will maintain a hawkish stance in May. It is recommended to hold existing gold long - positions, and the cost - effectiveness of opening new long - positions is low. For silver, it is recommended to wait and see. [8] Non - ferrous Metals Copper - Last week, copper prices fluctuated slightly higher. Exchange inventories decreased, and the spot import was slightly in deficit. The LME market shifted from premium to discount. The scrap copper supply was tight, and the operating rate of recycled copper rod enterprises decreased. Trump's statement and the approaching Politburo meeting may bring positive sentiment. In the short - term, prices may fluctuate. [10] Aluminum - Last week, aluminum prices fluctuated weakly. Domestic and LME inventories decreased, and the spot premium increased. The demand for photovoltaic - related aluminum is strong. The impact of tariffs is limited, and domestic aluminum prices are expected to be supported by the decline in inventory, with the possibility of a wider spread between months. [11] Zinc - Last week, zinc prices continued to decline. Domestic and overseas inventories showed different trends, and the basis and spread changed. The supply is expected to be loose, and downstream procurement is expected to weaken. In the short - term, prices may fluctuate at a low level, and there is a risk of further decline in the medium - term. [12][13] Lead - Last week, lead prices rebounded after a decline. Domestic and overseas inventories decreased, and the basis and spread strengthened slightly. The supply is generally loose, and the demand is stable. In the short - term, prices may fluctuate strongly, and in the medium - term, they are expected to fluctuate in a range. [14] Nickel - Last week, nickel prices recovered due to the alleviation of tariff concerns. The supply is expected to increase, the demand for high - priced nickel is limited, and the cost support may weaken. It is recommended to short on rallies. [15] Tin - Last week, tin prices fluctuated. The supply may decrease in April, and the demand has improved but its sustainability is uncertain. The inventory has decreased. In the short - term, prices are expected to fluctuate at a high level. [16] Lithium Carbonate - The price of lithium carbonate decreased slightly. The impact of tariffs has faded, and the price has entered the bottom - cost area. Production has decreased, and inventory accumulation has slowed. The supply and demand may weaken, and the price is likely to fluctuate weakly. [18] Alumina - The alumina index fell. The spot price remained unchanged, the basis was positive, and the overseas price was stable. The supply is still in surplus, but there are more production cuts recently. It is recommended to wait and see. [19] Stainless Steel - The price of stainless steel decreased. The spot price was stable, and the basis increased. The raw material price was stable, and the inventory decreased. The sales were slow, and the price decline was limited by cost inversion. [20] Black Building Materials Steel - The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil decreased. The registered warehouse receipts decreased, and the positions increased. The spot price also decreased. The "tariff issue" has a great impact on the overall commodity price, and the demand for steel is affected. The supply and demand of steel have different trends, and the inventory is decreasing. The market shows a pattern of "strong reality, weak expectation". [22][23] Iron Ore - The price of iron ore decreased. The overseas mine shipments were stable, the arrival volume increased, the demand may weaken, and the inventory decreased. In the short - term, it will wait for consolidation, and in the later stage, there is downward pressure on the price. [24] Glass and Soda Ash - The spot price of glass decreased, the sales were weak, and the inventory decline slowed. The spot price of soda ash was stable, the supply was at a high level, and the inventory decreased slightly. The demand for soda ash from photovoltaic glass provides some support, and it is expected to run weakly. [25][26] Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - The price of manganese silicon continued to decline, and the price of ferrosilicon also decreased. The supply is relatively strong, and the demand is weak. The cost of manganese ore may continue to decline, and there is a risk of further price decline. For ferrosilicon, the production is decreasing, but the demand may also weaken. It is recommended to wait and see or follow the short - term trend. [27][28][29] Industrial Silicon - The price of industrial silicon accelerated its decline. The supply is in surplus, and the demand is insufficient. Downstream industries have over - supply, and the production of industrial silicon is still expanding. It is recommended to wait and see or follow the short - term trend. [32][33] Energy and Chemicals Rubber - The global financial market is volatile, and the decline in rubber prices has released most of the risks. The bulls expect price increases due to production - cut expectations, while the bears are bearish due to weak demand. The operating rate of tire enterprises decreased, and the inventory increased. It is expected to fluctuate, and short - term operations are recommended. [36][37][38] Crude Oil - The prices of WTI, Brent, and INE crude oil futures increased. European oil product inventories showed different trends, with an overall increase in refined oil inventories. It is believed that the oil price has bottomed out, and investors are advised to take profits on dips and wait for a turning point. [40][41][42] Methanol - The 09 - contract price of methanol increased, while the spot price decreased. The supply is expected to increase, and the demand may weaken. It is recommended to short on rallies, and pay attention to the 9 - 1 spread and the PP - 3MA spread. [43] Urea - The 09 - contract price of urea increased, while the spot price decreased. The supply will remain high, and the demand will be strong. The inventory is expected to decrease, and it is suitable to go long on dips, with a positive - spread strategy for the 9 - 1 spread. [44] Styrene - The price of the 06 - contract of styrene increased, while the spot price decreased. The cost is affected by the price of crude oil and pure benzene, and the downstream demand is weak. It is recommended to wait for opportunities to short on rallies. [45] PVC - The price of the PVC09 contract decreased slightly. The cost is stable, the supply and demand are weak, and the inventory is decreasing. In the short - term, it is expected to fluctuate weakly, and in the medium - term, the valuation center will continue to decline. [46][47] Ethylene Glycol - The price of the EG09 contract increased, while the spot price decreased. The supply decreased, and the demand increased. The inventory is decreasing, but there is a risk of negative feedback in the industry chain. It is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short - term. [48] PTA - The price of the PTA09 contract increased, and the spot price also increased. The supply is in the maintenance season, and the demand is affected by the downstream. The inventory is decreasing, and the processing fee is under pressure. It is recommended to wait and see. [49] p - Xylene - The price of the PX09 contract increased, and the CFR price also increased. The supply is in the maintenance season, and the demand is affected by the downstream. The inventory is decreasing, and the valuation is low. It is recommended to wait and see. [50][51] Polyethylene (PE) - The price of PE decreased. The supply will increase in the second quarter, the demand is weakening, and the price is expected to decline in the medium - and long - term. [52] Polypropylene (PP) - The price of PP increased slightly. The cost is supported, the supply will increase, and the demand will decline seasonally. It is expected to fluctuate weakly. [53] Agricultural Products Live Pigs - The domestic pig price mainly declined over the weekend. The terminal demand is limited, and the price may decline in the north and remain stable in the south. It is advisable to short on short - term rebounds. [55] Eggs - The domestic egg price was mainly stable over the weekend, with a slight decline in some areas. The supply is mostly sufficient, and the demand is average. The price may rise slightly and then stabilize, with a risk of decline later. It is recommended to wait for short - selling signals. [56] Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - The domestic soybean meal price increased locally over the weekend, with a trend of inventory accumulation in the future. The开机率 is expected to increase. The price of U.S. soybeans is affected by weather and tariffs. The cost of imported soybeans is expected to rise steadily, and domestic soybean meal is expected to fluctuate in a range. [57][58] Oils and Fats - The export of Malaysian palm oil increased in April, and the production also increased. The price of crude oil has an impact on the valuation of oils and fats. The supply of oils and fats is increasing seasonally, and there is a risk of price decline. If the macro - economy stabilizes, there may be support. [59][60] Sugar - The price of Zhengzhou sugar futures rebounded slightly. The domestic supply and demand are in a tight balance, and the price is relatively resistant to decline. In the short - term, the price may fluctuate, and in the long - term, it may decline if the weather improves. [61][62] Cotton - The price of Zhengzhou cotton futures fluctuated narrowly. The spot price increased slightly, and the basis was positive. The operating rate of spinning and weaving mills decreased, and the inventory increased. The domestic supply and demand are in a tight balance, and the price trend depends on downstream consumption. [63][64]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of fluctuating oil prices and rising gold prices, emphasizing the need for measures to stabilize the economy and promote high-quality development in China [1][4]. Group 1: Economic Measures - The Chinese government is focusing on increasing counter-cyclical adjustments to stabilize employment, foreign trade, and consumption, while enhancing domestic demand and improving quality [1][6]. - The government aims to support foreign investment and promote effective investment in various sectors, including services like elderly care and tourism [6]. Group 2: Oil Market - The SC night market saw a 0.33% increase in oil prices, with OPEC announcing further production cuts from several countries to compensate for previous overproduction [2][11]. - The new compensation plan requires seven countries to reduce daily production by 369,000 barrels from now until June 2026, with monthly reductions ranging from 196,000 to 520,000 barrels [2][11]. Group 3: Stock Market - The US stock market was closed, and the previous trading day saw a slight decline in stock indices, with a total trading volume of 0.95 trillion yuan [3][9]. - The financing balance decreased by 3.413 billion yuan to 1.798997 trillion yuan, indicating a cautious market sentiment amid ongoing US-China tariff negotiations [3][9]. Group 4: Precious Metals - Gold prices continue to rise, driven by market speculation and concerns over inflation, with the potential for the Federal Reserve to restart quantitative easing [4][19]. - The article highlights the increasing risks of recession and the challenges posed by US debt, contributing to the strong performance of gold [4][19]. Group 5: International Trade - The World Trade Organization reported that US tariff policies have severely worsened global trade prospects, predicting a 0.2% decline in global goods trade volume by 2025 [5]. - In North America, exports are expected to drop by 12.6% due to the current tariff situation [5]. Group 6: Agricultural Trade - China and Brazil are enhancing agricultural trade interactions in response to US tariffs, focusing on the export of Brazilian soybeans and beef [8].

第二部分 基本面分析 国际市场：据船运调查机构 SGS 公布数据显示，预计马来西亚 4 月 1-15 日棕榈油出口 量为 376584 吨，较上月同期出口的 351797 吨增加 7.05%。 大宗商品研究所 农产品研发报告 油脂日报 2025 年 4 月 16 日 油脂日报 第一部分 数据分析 | 银河期货油脂日报 | | | | | | | | | | | 2025/4/16 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 油脂现货价格及基差 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 品种 2509收盘价 各品种地区现货价 | | 涨跌 | | | | | | | 现货基差（分别为：一豆、24度、三菜） | | | | | 豆油 | 7652 | (24) | 张家港 | 广东 | 天津 | | 广东 | | 涨跌幅 张家港 涨跌幅 天津 涨跌幅 | | | | | 8032 | | | | 8012 | 7952 | | 360 | 0 380 | 10 | 300 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - In the short - term, the global financial market is highly volatile due to the trade war. The enhanced expectation of a global economic recession and the sharp decline in crude oil prices exert significant pressure on the futures prices of oils and fats. The main short - term influencing factor is trade - war policies, but the probability of further escalation is low. In the long - term, the global supply - demand relationship determines the trend of oils and fats. The Malaysian palm oil report is neutral, and the USDA report is basically neutral. There is a high probability of wide - range fluctuations in the prices of the three major domestic oils and fats [9][33]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Abstract - After the Tomb - Sweeping Festival holiday, the global financial market was highly volatile, and the futures prices of oils and fats rebounded after hitting bottom. For the whole week, the Y2509 soybean oil contract fell 2.71% to close at 7,680 yuan/ton, the P2509 palm oil contract fell 4.48% to close at 8,196 yuan/ton, and the OI2509 rapeseed oil contract fell 2.28% to close at 9,354 yuan/ton [5]. 3.2 Important Information - **Palm oil**: On April 10, the Malaysian Palm Oil Board (MPOB) reported that Malaysia's palm oil production in March was 1,387,193 tons, a month - on - month increase of 16.76%. Exports were 1,005,547 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.91%. Imports were 121,886 tons, a month - on - month increase of 82.51%. Inventories were 1,562,586 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.52%. Malaysian palm oil prices fell 2.66% [7][31]. - **Soybean oil**: The USDA's April supply - demand report showed that the estimated soybean production in the US for the 2024/25 season was 4.366 billion bushels, and the estimated year - end inventory was 375 million bushels. The global soybean production in the 2024/25 season was estimated at 420.58 million tons, and the global ending soybean inventory was 122.47 million tons. US soybeans rose 7.78% this week [7]. 3.3 Spot Analysis - As of April 11, 2025, the spot price of Grade 4 soybean oil in Zhangjiagang was 8,040 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Seasonally, it was at an average level compared to the past 5 years [10]. - As of April 11, 2025, the spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 9,250 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day. Seasonally, it was at a relatively high level compared to the past 5 years [11]. - As of April 11, 2025, the spot price of Grade 4 rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 9,350 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Seasonally, it was at a relatively low level compared to the past 5 years [13]. 3.4 Other Data - As of April 4, 2025, the national soybean oil inventory decreased by 59,000 tons to 897,000 tons. On April 9, 2025, the national commercial palm oil inventory decreased by 13,000 tons to 357,000 tons [17]. - As of April 11, 2025, the port's imported soybean inventory was 6,273,590 tons [22]. - As of April 11, 2025, the basis of Grade 4 soybean oil in Zhangjiagang was 360 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Seasonally, it was at an average level compared to the past 5 years [23]. - As of April 11, 2025, the basis of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 502 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Seasonally, it was at a relatively low level compared to the past 5 years [24]. - As of April 11, 2025, the basis of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 40 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Seasonally, it was at a relatively low level compared to the past 5 years [26]. 3.5 Comprehensive Analysis - After the Tomb - Sweeping Festival holiday, affected by the trade war triggered by the US imposing tariffs globally, the global financial market was highly volatile, and the futures prices of oils and fats rebounded after hitting bottom. The weekly performance of the contracts was consistent with the abstract. The Malaysian palm oil data and the US soybean data were also consistent with the important information section [31]. - The short - term and long - term influencing factors of oils and fats prices are consistent with the core view [33].