今日早参 2025 年 4 月 29 日 何康 策略首席研究员兼金融工程联席首席 研究员 座机：021-28972202 邮箱：hekang@htsc.com 张继强 研究所所长、固收首席研究员 座机：13910012450 邮箱：zhangjiqiang@htsc.com 今日热点 策略：资金透视：配置型外资转向流入 1 今日早参 | 2025 年 4 月 29 日 上周，资金面延续平淡：1）交易型资金中，融资余额仍稳定在 1.8 万亿附 近，行业 ETF 净流出收窄，方向上，短线资金对于业绩预期改善、成长方向 关注度有所回升；2）配置型外资转向净流入，被动配置型外资是净流入主 力，主动配置型外资净流出收窄，仓位视角，4 月初，亚洲配置型外资持有 A 股仓位创 2024 年以来新高，而全球配置型基金仓位相对稳定；3）逆势资 金流入态势放缓，宽基 ETF 转向净流出，产业资本转向净减持，但回购资金 积极入市，回购预案规模仍在 2016 年以来相对高位。 风险提示：1）估算持仓模型失效；2）数据统计口径有误。 研报发布日期：2025-04-28 研究员 何康 SAC:S0570520080004 SFC:BRB ...

Core Insights - The core viewpoint of the articles is that Three Squirrels has successfully turned around its business, achieving significant revenue growth and is now seeking a dual listing on the A+H stock markets to further its strategic goals [1][2]. Financial Performance - In 2024, Three Squirrels reported a revenue of 10.622 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 49.3%, surpassing its previous peak of 10.173 billion yuan in 2019 [2]. - The net profit for 2024 was 408 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 85.51% [2]. - The company experienced a decline in revenue for four consecutive years from 2019 to 2023, dropping from over 10 billion yuan to 7.1 billion yuan [2]. Strategic Goals - Three Squirrels aims to achieve a revenue target of 20 billion yuan by 2026, necessitating substantial investment in a comprehensive multi-channel strategy [2]. - The company is focusing on enhancing its global brand recognition and supply chain capabilities through the planned IPO [2]. Market Position and Competition - The snack food industry is witnessing intense competition, particularly in the offline market, which is considered the main battleground [1][4]. - Three Squirrels is shifting its strategy to increase its offline presence, particularly through hard discount supermarket models, which are seen as crucial for market penetration [1][5]. Offline Expansion Efforts - In 2024, Three Squirrels announced plans to acquire control of snack brand "Ai Ling Shi" and hard discount supermarket brand "Ai Zhe Kou" for up to 2.6 billion yuan [5]. - The company's offline sales revenue grew by 48.62% in 2024, although the revenue share from offline sales has remained relatively stable over the past three years [5]. Industry Trends - The hard discount supermarket sector is becoming increasingly competitive, with major players like Ming Ming Hen Mang and Wan Chen Group already established in the market [5][6]. - The rise of hard discount supermarkets is prompting traditional retailers to adapt, with some shifting towards cost-effective models [6]. Supply Chain Focus - Three Squirrels plans to use funds from its IPO to strengthen its supply chain, including the establishment of new production lines at key bases [6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the snack wholesale industry [11] Core Insights - The snack wholesale industry is entering a 2.0 era, characterized by rapid expansion and a shift towards a full-category discount model as brands adapt to market saturation [4][9] - The industry has seen significant growth, with over 40,000 stores expected by the end of 2024, driven by a consumer trend favoring cost-effective options [8][45] - The transition to a full-category discount model is essential for brands to enhance profitability and customer experience, with supply chain optimization being a critical factor [10][53] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The Chinese snack food industry exceeds 1 trillion yuan, with a low concentration due to diverse consumer preferences [7] - The evolution of the industry has been closely tied to changes in retail channels, moving from traditional retail to e-commerce and now to snack wholesale [7][23] Market Dynamics - The snack wholesale sector has experienced rapid growth, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 15% to 16% from 2022 to 2024, as consumers seek value for money [19][20] - The emergence of brands like "Snack Busy" and "Zhao Yiming" reflects the competitive landscape, with a focus on low prices and a wide range of products [8][9] Transition to Full-Category Model - As the snack wholesale market matures, brands are exploring full-category discount formats to maintain growth and profitability [9][53] - The success of this transition relies heavily on effective supply chain management and product selection [10][53] Competitive Landscape - The market is witnessing a dual oligopoly formation with "Snack Busy" and "Wanchen" leading the charge, controlling a significant share of the market [45][47] - The report highlights the importance of strategic mergers and acquisitions in enhancing brand influence and operational efficiency [47][50] Future Outlook - The snack wholesale industry is projected to continue its expansion, with an estimated 45,000 stores by 2025, indicating a robust growth trajectory [45][46] - The focus on supply chain efficiency and customer-centric strategies will be pivotal in navigating the competitive landscape [10][53]

Core Viewpoint - Company Squirrel is seeking to list on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange (HKEX) while reporting strong revenue growth for 2024, but faces challenges in maintaining net profit growth and declining average selling prices for its main products [1][3][4]. Group 1: Financial Performance - In 2024, Company Squirrel achieved revenue of approximately 10.62 billion yuan and net profit of about 407 million yuan, marking increases from previous years [3]. - The company's revenue from short video platforms grew significantly, contributing 26.35 million yuan in 2024, which accounted for 24.8% of total revenue [3]. - However, in Q1 2025, the company reported a net profit decline of 22.46% year-on-year, with a net profit of approximately 239 million yuan [4][5]. Group 2: Product Pricing and Sales - The average selling prices of the company's five main product categories (nuts, baked goods, meat products, dried fruits, and snacks) decreased in 2024 [6][7]. - Specifically, the average selling price of nuts fell from 4.82 million yuan/ton in 2023 to 4.37 million yuan/ton in 2024, despite nuts contributing over 50% of total revenue [6][7]. - The sales revenue breakdown for 2024 showed that nuts generated approximately 5.37 billion yuan, while other categories also experienced price declines [6][7]. Group 3: Management and Dividends - Company Squirrel's executives received significant salary increases, with the chairman's salary rising from approximately 3.14 million yuan in 2022 to 3.81 million yuan in 2024 [8][9]. - In contrast, the company's dividend payout for 2024 was relatively low, with a proposed cash dividend of 1.25 yuan per 10 shares, resulting in a dividend yield of only 0.38% [9][10]. - The company has faced criticism for its low dividend policy, which may impact investor sentiment and company valuation [10][11]. Group 4: Consumer Complaints - Company Squirrel has received numerous consumer complaints regarding product quality, including issues with food safety and product discrepancies, totaling 4,377 complaints on the Black Cat Complaints App [11][12].

前白宫国家经济委员会主任警告，美国关税政策的全面影响将在5月底显现，直接冲击消费品供应和价格。 据央视新闻报道， 当地时间4月27日，曾在特朗普第一个总统任期内担任白宫国家经济委员会主任的加里·科恩（Gary Cohn）表示， 美国目前关税政策的影响 将在下个月底开始在全国范围内显现， 这一预测是基于货物运输和分发所需的时间。 科恩说，收入水平及经济实力较低的人群将把100%的薪水都用于购买商品，而富人会存储更高比例的收入。 这意味着关税将对低收入美国人产生更大影响。 消费狂潮退烧，提前购买难掩后续疲软 科恩观察到，在关税威胁下，消费者出现了明显的"预加载"或"前端购买"行为。为了规避未来可能更高的价格，民众抢购汽车，推动汽车销售创下历史新高，同 时大量购入消费品、洗衣机和科技产品。这使得经济的"硬数据"在短期内看起来"相当稳固"——然而，这只是表面现象。 科恩强调， 反映未来预期的"软数据"，如消费者信心指数和各类民调，正显示出越来越多的疲软迹象。 比如作为 作为未来支出先行指标的 消费者信心，已经 亮起了红灯。 各大消费品公司的一季度财报时也印证了这一点：尽管一季度尚可，但对二季度的展望普遍悲观。从快餐连 ...

信达证券 2025 年 5 月"十大金股"组合 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 4 月 28 日 请阅读最后一页免责声明及信息披露 http://www.cindasc.com 1 李春驰 电力公用联席首席分析师 执业编号：S1500522070001 邮 箱：lichunchi@cindasc.com 庞倩倩 计算机首席分析师 执业编号：S1500522110006 邮 箱：pangqianqian@cindasc.com 刘旺 传媒联席首席分析师 执业编号：S1500524120005 邮箱：liuwang@cindasc.com 莫文宇 电子首席分析师 执业编号：S1500522090001 邮箱：mowenyu@cindasc.com 证券研究报告 策略研究 [策略Table专题报告 _ReportType] [Table_A 樊继拓 uthor 策略首席分析师 ] 执业编号：S1500521060001 邮箱：fanjituo@cindasc.com 程丽丽 食品饮料分析师 执业编号：S1500523110003 邮 箱：chenglili@cindasc.com 罗岸阳 家电行 ...

Core Viewpoint - Liuliu Mei, a leading brand in the plum snack industry, is preparing for an IPO on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange after previously failing to list in A-shares, raising concerns about declining profit margins and low R&D investment [2][5]. Company Overview - Liuliu Guoyuan, the parent company of Liuliu Mei, is a major player in the Chinese fruit snack market, with its main products categorized into three types: dried plums, western plums, and other plum-related products [3]. Market Position - According to Frost & Sullivan, Liuliu Guoyuan has ranked first in the green plum and western plum snack sectors by retail sales from 2021 to 2024. However, the market ceiling is evident, with the overall snack market in China projected to grow from 13,440 billion RMB in 2024 to 17,558 billion RMB by 2029 [5]. Financial Performance - The company reported total revenues of 1.174 billion RMB, 1.322 billion RMB, and 1.616 billion RMB for the years 2022, 2023, and 2024, respectively, with net profits of approximately 68 million RMB, 99 million RMB, and 148 million RMB during the same period [5][6]. Profit Margin Trends - Despite revenue growth, the gross profit margin has been declining, with figures of 38.6%, 40.1%, and 36.0% for the years 2022, 2023, and 2024, respectively. The margins for core products like dried plums and western plums have also decreased [6][7]. Marketing and R&D Expenditure - The company has invested heavily in marketing, with sales and distribution expenses exceeding 900 million RMB over the reporting period, accounting for 24.1%, 23.4%, and 19.2% of total revenue [8][10]. In contrast, R&D spending has been low, totaling less than 77 million RMB over three years, with a R&D expense ratio of only 1.2% in 2024 [11]. Ownership and Shareholder Actions - The company is primarily controlled by its founders, who hold 87.77% of the shares. Notably, major shareholder Beijing Sequoia chose to cash out before the IPO, selling its shares for 261 million RMB [11]. Food Safety Concerns - Food safety is critical for the company, which has faced multiple complaints and regulatory actions related to product quality. There have been nearly 300 complaints, with issues such as contamination and spoilage frequently reported [12][13][16].

Core Viewpoint - Liu Liu Mei has resumed its path to IPO after five years, presenting a steady growth report but facing significant challenges in product diversity and cash flow due to major investor withdrawal [2][3][13]. Financial Performance - Liu Liu Mei's total revenue is projected to grow from 1.174 billion yuan in 2022 to 1.616 billion yuan in 2024, representing an increase of 85% compared to 2019 [2]. - Net profit is expected to rise from 68.43 million yuan to 148 million yuan during the same period, recovering from a decline seen between 2016 and 2018 [2]. Product and Market Challenges - The company relies heavily on three core products: dried plums, dried plums products, and plum jelly, with over 85% of revenue coming from dried plums and jelly [3]. - Raw material costs have increased significantly, with domestic green plum prices rising from 2,400 yuan to 2,600 yuan per ton and imported dried plum prices increasing from 16,200 yuan to 20,700 yuan per ton from 2020 to 2024 [3]. - The company's raw material costs are projected to rise from 489 million yuan in 2022 to 771 million yuan in 2024, accounting for 41.7% to 47.7% of total revenue [3]. Competitive Landscape - The snack food market is becoming increasingly competitive, with the CR3 and CR5 market concentration ratios declining to 11.1% and 16.5% respectively by 2024 [6]. - Competitors like Three Squirrels and Bestore are offering similar plum snacks at lower prices, putting pressure on Liu Liu Mei's pricing strategy [6][8]. Sales Channels and Strategy - Liu Liu Mei is shifting its sales strategy towards discount snack stores, with revenue from distributors decreasing from 874 million yuan to 659 million yuan between 2022 and 2024 [7]. - The top five customers accounted for 33.1% of total revenue in 2024, with significant sales to major retail chains [7]. Marketing and R&D Expenditure - The company has invested heavily in marketing, with advertising expenses totaling 427 million yuan from 2022 to 2024, representing 27.3% of total gross profit [11]. - In contrast, R&D spending has been minimal, with a research expense rate of only 1.2% in 2024, raising concerns about long-term sustainability [11][13]. Investor Dynamics - Sequoia Capital, a major investor, has exited, leading to liquidity issues for Liu Liu Mei, which had to arrange for D-round financing to cover buyback obligations [13][14]. - The company's cash and cash equivalents were reported at 78.04 million yuan as of December 31, 2024, indicating a tight cash flow situation [14].

Core Viewpoint - Three Squirrels has submitted its IPO application to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, aiming to become the first "A+H" snack company if successful [1] Fundraising Purpose - The funds from the IPO will be used to strengthen the supply chain, enhance sales networks and brand awareness, expand product offerings, pursue strategic alliances and acquisitions, and for working capital and other general corporate purposes [1] Supply Chain Development - The company plans to establish new supply chain bases by building multiple production lines across various regions in China and setting up a factory in Vietnam to achieve economies of scale and cost advantages [2][3] Sales Network Expansion - Three Squirrels will focus on advertising on short video platforms like Douyin and Kuaishou, as well as enhancing offline store networks, reflecting a shift in sales channel strategy [4] Strategic Shift - The company has transitioned from a focus on brand building and sales channels to a more integrated approach emphasizing supply chain efficiency and cost reduction, aligning with its core strategy of "high-end cost performance" [5][6] Competitive Landscape - The snack industry is highly competitive with increasing homogenization and the rise of new entrants, necessitating Three Squirrels to adapt its strategies, particularly in offline sales where it has historically been weaker [6][7]

超配（维持） 政策预期强化，关注景气细分 食品饮料行业深度报告 2025 年 4 月 28 日 分析师：魏红梅 SAC 执业证书编号： S0340513040002 电话：0769-22119462 邮箱：whm2@dgzq.com.cn 分析师：黄冬祎 SAC 执业证书编号： S0340523020001 电话：0769-22119410 邮箱： huangdongyi@dgzq.com.cn 食品饮料行业指数走势 资料来源：东莞证券研究所，同花顺 相关报告 投资要点： 本报告的风险等级为中高风险。 本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 请务必阅读末页声明。 行 业 研 究 证 券 深 度 研 究 食品饮料行业 研 究 报 告 ◼ 外部不确定性增加+国内政策定调积极，行业重视度提升。近期外部 不确定性增加，提振内需或将成为推动国内经济增长的重要一环。叠 加国内消费定调积极，食品饮料业绩受海外市场影响较小，行业重视 度提升。 ◼ 白酒板块：根据酒业家调研数据显示，今年春节白酒动销同比下滑10% 左右。节后，步入酒企销售淡季，主要以控货挺价为主。从酒企 ...