Group 1 - The domestic oilseed market is experiencing a downturn, with soybean futures showing weak fluctuations, and the main contract reported at 3651.00 CNY/ton, a slight increase of 1.88% [1] - Argentina's Ministry of Agriculture forecasts the soybean planting area for the 2025/26 season to remain stable at 17.4 million hectares compared to the previous month [1] - In Brazil's Paraná state, soybean production for the 2025/26 season is estimated at 21.96 million tons, unchanged from November's forecast, indicating a 4% increase from the previous year if realized [1] Group 2 - The USDA reported that as of November 27, net soybean export sales for the 2025/2026 season were 1.106 million tons, down from 2.321 million tons the previous week, with net sales to China at 509,000 tons [1] - Brazil's national grain exporters association (ANEC) predicts soybean exports for December to reach 3.57 million tons, up from the previous week's estimate of 3.33 million tons [1] - New Century Futures anticipates a bearish trend for soybean futures due to concerns over slow U.S. soybean sales to China and high domestic inventories, suggesting a focus on South American weather and U.S.-China trade developments as uncertainties [2]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton: Neutral to bullish [3] - Sugar: Neutral to bearish [6] - Pulp: Neutral [8] Core Views - Cotton: The 25/26 global cotton production and demand both decrease, and the ending stocks increase slightly. In the short - term, ICE US cotton is under pressure, while in the long - term, it has limited downward space. In China, the supply is abundant in the short - term, but the downstream demand is weak. However, the improvement in spinning profits restricts the downward space of cotton prices [2]. - Sugar: The 25/26 global sugar supply surplus pattern remains unchanged. Although the short - term factors support the rebound of raw sugar prices, the upside space is limited. Zhengzhou sugar has sufficient short - term supply, but its low valuation restricts the further decline [5]. - Pulp: Overseas pulp mills have shutdown and maintenance news. European port pulp inventory has decreased, but the domestic terminal demand is still insufficient. However, the decline in port inventory and the expansion of downstream paper production capacity may support the pulp prices to stabilize gradually [7]. Summary by Related Catalogs Cotton Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of cotton 2605 contract was 13,960 yuan/ton yesterday, up 35 yuan/ton (+0.25%) from the previous day. - Spot: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 14,978 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; the national average price was 15,139 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton. - Import: In November 2025, China's cotton imports were 120,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 30,000 tons (34.4%) and a year - on - year increase of 10,000 tons (9.4%). From January to November 2025, the cumulative imports were 890,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 64.0% [1]. Market Analysis - International: The USDA's adjustment of global cotton supply - demand data this month is small. The US cotton production increases slightly, and there is greater inventory pressure. The short - term ICE US cotton is under pressure, and the long - term upward driver is not clear. - Domestic: China's cotton production in the 25/26 season continues to increase. The short - term supply is abundant, but the downstream demand is weak. The improvement in spinning profits restricts the downward space of cotton prices [2]. Strategy Be neutral to bullish, focus on the opportunity of going long on the 05 contract at low prices. Pay attention to the change of the cotton target price policy next year [3] Sugar Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of sugar 2605 contract was 5,102 yuan/ton yesterday, down 37 yuan/ton (-0.72%) from the previous day. - Spot: The spot price of sugar in Nanning, Guangxi was 5,270 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton; in Kunming, Yunnan was 5,220 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan/ton. - Import: In November 2025, China's sugar imports were 440,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 90,000 tons. From January to November 2025, the cumulative imports were 4.34 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 380,000 tons. As of the end of November in the 25/26 season, the imports were 1.19 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 120,000 tons [4]. Market Analysis - Raw sugar: Brazil's sugarcane harvest is accelerating, India's exports are difficult to increase in the short - term, and Thailand's sugarcane crushing is delayed. Although the short - term raw sugar price rebounds, the 25/26 global sugar supply surplus pattern restricts its upside space. - Zhengzhou sugar: Guangxi sugar mills are starting production, with short - term sufficient supply. However, the low valuation restricts its downward space [5]. Strategy Be neutral to bearish. Pay attention to the impact of capital on the market, and treat it with a low - level consolidation mindset [6] Pulp Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of pulp 2605 contract was 5,500 yuan/ton yesterday, down 6 yuan/ton (-0.11%) from the previous day. - Spot: The spot price of Chilean Silver Star softwood pulp in Shandong was 5,540 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; the price of Russian softwood pulp was 5,095 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton. - Inventory: The total inventory of pulp in 1 region and 8 ports decreased by 1.39% week - on - week, and the decline narrowed by 3.50 percentage points [6]. Market Analysis - Supply: Overseas pulp mills have shutdown and maintenance news, such as Domtar closing the Crofton paper mill and Finns Group's Rauma pulp mill having a temporary shutdown. - Demand: The European port pulp inventory in October decreased, showing some improvement in demand. In China, the terminal demand is insufficient, but the decline in port inventory and the expansion of downstream paper production capacity may support the pulp prices to stabilize [7]. Strategy Be neutral. Although the pulp price has risen strongly recently, the lack of substantial improvement in the supply - demand situation restricts its upside space. Pay attention to the impact of the remaining Russian softwood pulp warehouse receipts on the market [8]

【品种观点】 | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 中美豆采购开启，但美豆出口数据不佳，利空美盘市场情绪。南美天气降雨改善， | | 豆粕 ★ | 震荡偏空 | 市场缺乏利多驱动。本周国内最新及豆粕库存环比减少改善，但同比偏高，12 月供 应预计暂充足，现货价格表现抗跌。豆粕预计短线暂维持震荡偏弱行情。关注美豆 | | | | 出口情况及南美天。 | | | | 沿海油厂菜籽零库存，零压榨，低进口，但港口库存依然同比偏高，消费淡季下现 | | 菜粕 | | 货降价去库。基本面暂无大波动预期。进口多元化逐步替代中加进口矛盾问题，暂 | | ★ | 震荡偏空 | 无强驱动，以跟随豆粕趋势为主，关注澳籽进口政策及中加贸易后续进展。 | | | | 马棕榈油本月前 15 日出口数据环比下降，马政府对于 12 月马棕榈油累库预期的言 | | 棕榈油 | | 论叠加下半月东南亚降雨表现一般的双重作用下，市场人气偏空，近期预计维持偏 | | ★ | 震荡偏弱 | 弱震荡。由于东南亚逐步进入减产季，棕榈油追空操作需谨慎，关注调整后企稳反 | | | | 弹短多机会。 | ...

Group 1: Investment Rating - The investment rating for both the soybean meal and corn sectors is neutral [3] Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The current supply - demand pattern of soybean meal has not changed, with high oil - mill operating rates and continuous inventory accumulation of soybeans and soybean meal. The overall soybean meal price is mainly in a range - bound movement. Attention should be paid to US soybean imports and the weather in the new - season South American production areas [2] - In the domestic corn market, the grain - selling progress in the Northeast is relatively fast, but the effective supply is tight due to farmers' reluctance to sell. As the price reaches a relatively high level and holidays approach, the grain - selling progress is expected to accelerate. Deep - processing and feed enterprises have low inventories and replenishment needs, and the demand from feed enterprises is rigid [4] Group 3: Market News and Key Data (Soybean Meal) - Futures: The closing price of the soybean meal 2605 contract was 2747 yuan/ton, a change of - 9 yuan/ton or - 0.33% from the previous day; the rapeseed meal 2605 contract was 2340 yuan/ton, a change of + 9 yuan/ton or + 0.39% [1] - Spot: Tianjin's soybean meal spot price was 3090 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a spot basis of M05 + 343, a change of + 9; Jiangsu's was 3020 yuan/ton, a change of - 20 yuan/ton, with a spot basis of M05 + 273, a change of - 11; Guangdong's was 3030 yuan/ton, a change of - 10 yuan/ton, with a spot basis of M05 + 283, a change of - 1. Fujian's rapeseed meal spot price was 2560 yuan/ton, a change of + 10 yuan/ton, with a spot basis of RM05 + 220, a change of + 1 [1] - Market information: Brazil's soybean export volume in December is expected to be 3.57 million tons (previously 3.33 million tons), and the soybean meal export volume is expected to be 2 million tons (previously 1.83 million tons) [1] Group 4: Market News and Key Data (Corn) - Futures: The closing price of the corn 2601 contract was 2190 yuan/ton, a change of - 16 yuan/ton or - 0.73% from the previous day; the corn starch 2511 contract was 2499 yuan/ton, a change of - 13 yuan/ton or - 0.52% [3] - Spot: Liaoning's corn spot price was 2150 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a spot basis of C01 + 115, a change of + 21; Jilin's corn starch spot price was 2630 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a spot basis of CS01 + 131, a change of + 13 [3] - Market information: As of December 10, the sowing progress of corn in Argentina in the 2025/26 season was 59.2% (up from 44% a week ago), and the corn yield is expected to reach a record 61 million tons. The wheat harvest progress was 60.2%, a 15 - percentage - point increase week - on - week [3]

农产品早报 2025-12-19 五矿期货农产品早报 五矿期货农产品团队 从业资格号：F0273729 交易咨询号：Z0002942 邮箱：wangja@wkqh.cn 杨泽元 白糖、棉花研究员 从业资格号：F03116327 交易咨询号：Z0019233 邮箱:yangzeyuan@wkqh.cn 斯小伟 油脂油料研究员 从业资格号：F03114441 交易咨询号：Z0022498 电话：028-86133280 邮箱：sxwei@wkqh.cn 王俊 组长、生鲜品研究员 【行情资讯】 隔夜 CBOT 大豆收跌，市场继续交易美豆销售偏慢及南美丰产预期。周四国内豆粕现货小幅回落 10 元/ 吨，豆粕成交较好、提货较好。MYSTEEL 预计本周油厂大豆压榨量为 204.45 万吨，上周压榨大豆 203.75 万吨，上周饲企库存天数为 9.13 环比上升 0.64 天，上周国内大豆、豆粕均去库，同比仍处高位。 巴西主要种植区未来两周预报降雨偏多，阿根廷主产区预计降雨量也开始增加，处于正常偏低水平，重 点关注其 1 到 3 月天气表现。全球大豆预测年度库销比同比仍较高，尚不足以产生 CBOT 大豆盘面种植 利润丰厚 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report - Palm oil may have a short - term rebound and is in the process of bottom - hunting through oscillations [2][4] - Soybean oil is struggling to stabilize due to the weak performance of US soybeans [2][4] - Soybean meal is in a low - level oscillation [2][11] - Soybean No.1 is oscillating [2][11] - For corn, attention should be paid to the spot market [2][13] - Sugar is running weakly [2][17] - Cotton is oscillating with a slightly upward trend, and downstream demand should be monitored [2][22] - Eggs will maintain an oscillating state [2][28] - The peak demand for pigs during the Winter Solstice has arrived [2][30] - For peanuts, attention should be paid to the purchases of oil mills [2][36] 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Palm Oil and Soybean Oil - **Fundamental Data**: Palm oil's main contract had a daytime closing price of 8,368 yuan/ton with a 0.31% increase and a night - time closing price of 8,406 yuan/ton with a 0.45% increase. Soybean oil's main contract had a daytime closing price of 7,802 yuan/ton with a 0.26% decrease and a night - time closing price of 7,776 yuan/ton with a 0.33% decrease [5] - **Macro and Industry News**: Indonesia's palm oil inventory at the end of October decreased by 10% to 2.33 million tons, domestic consumption increased by 8.5% to 2.22 million tons, and production was 4.35 million tons, higher than September. The export volume in October was 2.8 million tons, about 3% lower than the same period last year [6] Soybean Meal and Soybean No.1 - **Fundamental Data**: DCE soybean No.1 2601 had a daytime closing price of 4041 yuan/ton with a 1.25% decrease and a night - time closing price of 4042 yuan/ton with a 0.17% decrease. DCE soybean meal 2605 had a daytime closing price of 2747 yuan/ton with a 0.69% decrease and a night - time closing price of 2742 yuan/ton with a 0.11% decrease [10] - **Macro and Industry News**: On December 18, CBOT soybean futures closed lower due to long - position liquidation, global sufficient supply, and unclear Chinese demand prospects. Exporters sold 114,000 tons of US soybeans to unknown destinations for delivery in the 2025/26 season [10][12] Corn - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of C2601 was 2216 yuan/ton with a 0.23% decrease during the day and 2219 yuan/ton with a 0.14% increase at night. The closing price of C2603 was 2190 yuan/ton with a 0.73% decrease during the day and remained unchanged at night [14] - **Macro and Industry News**: The prices of northern corn for bulk shipping and containerized first - class grain at ports remained stable compared to the previous day. The prices of corn in Northeast China were slightly lower in some areas, while those in North China were oscillating strongly [15] Sugar - **Fundamental Data**: The raw sugar price was 14.48 cents/pound with a 0.28 - cent decrease. The mainstream spot price was 5300 yuan/ton with a 40 - yuan decrease, and the futures main contract price was 5102 yuan/ton with a 37 - yuan decrease [17] - **Macro and Industry News**: As of December 15, the sugar production in the 25/26 season in India increased by 28.3% year - on - year. Brazil exported 3.3 million tons in November, a decrease of 90,000 tons year - on - year. China imported 440,000 tons of sugar in November, a decrease of 90,000 tons [17] Cotton - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of CF2605 was 13,960 yuan/ton with a 0.25% increase during the day and 13965 yuan/ton with a 0.04% increase at night. The closing price of CY2603 was 20,045 yuan/ton with a 0.20% decrease during the day and 20015 yuan/ton with a 0.15% decrease at night [22] - **Macro and Industry News**: The spot trading of cotton has weakened, and the prices of pure - cotton yarn have fluctuated. The ICE cotton futures rebounded slightly, but the overall trend is still weak [23] Eggs - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of egg 2601 was 3067 yuan/500 kilograms with a 0.87% decrease, and the closing price of egg 2602 was 2916 yuan/500 kilograms with a 0.48% decrease [28] - **Macro and Industry News**: Not provided Pigs - **Fundamental Data**: The Henan spot price was 11,880 yuan/ton, the Sichuan spot price was 12,150 yuan/ton, and the Guangdong spot price was 12,360 yuan/ton. The prices of futures contracts such as pig 2601, 2603, and 2605 also had corresponding changes [32] - **Macro and Industry News**: Yunnan Shennong, Guizhou Fuyuan, Dekang, Yangxiang, and COFCO registered warehouse receipts from December 4 to 15. The Ministry of Commerce determined that there was dumping of imported related pork and by - products from the EU [33] Peanuts - **Fundamental Data**: The price of Liaoning 308 general peanuts was 9400 yuan/ton, the price of Henan Baisha general peanuts was 7300 yuan/ton. The closing price of PK601 was 8066 yuan/ton with no change, and the closing price of PK603 was 7996 yuan/ton with a 0.15% increase [36] - **Macro and Industry News**: In Henan, the prices of peanuts were generally stable or slightly lower; in Jilin, the prices were basically stable; in Liaoning, the trading was in a stalemate; in Shandong, the prices were basically stable [37]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 宝城期货豆类油脂早报（2025 年 12 月 19 日） 品种观点参考 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货农产品板块 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 3 请务必阅读文末免责条款 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月(以前一日夜盘收盘价为基准) 品种 短期 中期 日内 观点参考 核心逻辑概要 <点击目录链接，直达品种 策略解析> 豆粕 2605 震荡 偏弱 震荡 震荡 偏弱 震荡偏弱 进口大豆成本，进口到港节 奏，油厂开工节奏，库存压力 豆油 2605 震荡 偏弱 震荡 震荡 偏弱 震荡偏弱 美豆成本支撑，美国生物燃 料政策，美豆油库存，国内 大豆成本支撑，供应节奏， 油厂库存 棕榈 2605 震荡 偏弱 震荡 震荡 偏弱 震荡偏弱 马棕产量和出口，印尼生 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views - **Apple**: The overall performance of apple-producing areas is sluggish, with the off - season of consumption and high prices suppressing demand. Only the high - quality goods in Gansu have a decent sales speed. It is recommended to close long positions opportunistically [6]. - **Jujube**: The arrival of goods in the jujube sales area is high, but the trading volume is mediocre. The futures price is weak, and the basis is strengthening. If the trading volume picks up during the peak consumption season, it may boost the futures price. Future attention should be paid to the inventory level after the Spring Festival, the planting area in 2026, and early - stage weather forecasts [8]. - **Fats and Oils**: For palm oil, the weak export of Malaysian palm oil restricts its rebound. For soybean oil, although the domestic supply is sufficient, the inventory is expected to decrease due to pre - Spring Festival stocking. For rapeseed oil, the futures price is affected by the movement of crude oil prices. Attention should be paid to whether the rapeseed oil 05 contract can stop falling in the range of 8900 - 9000 yuan [10]. - **Sugar**: ICE raw sugar futures hit a more than one - month low due to a strong US dollar and a loose supply outlook. The drought in Brazil has improved, which is beneficial for the next sugar - cane season. The domestic sugar price is expected to remain weak due to increased supply [13]. - **Cotton**: ICE cotton futures rose slightly due to short - covering. US cotton exports are in a volatile situation. The domestic cotton market has an optimistic long - term outlook but faces short - term constraints from the weak downstream industry. Attention should be paid to the resistance level around 14050 - 14100 [15]. - **Eggs**: The egg price is gradually rising from a low level. The supply of eggs is still sufficient, and the market is expected to remain in a low - level oscillation pattern [17]. - **Meal and Beans**: US soybeans are under downward pressure due to weak demand and a strong harvest expectation in South America. The domestic soybean meal market is in a loose situation, and the long - short spread has limited upward space [19]. - **Corn**: The corn spot market is dull. The market sentiment is loose due to policy auctions and the expectation of increased grain sales. The futures price is expected to oscillate weakly [22]. - **Pigs**: The spot price of pigs is stable, and the southern curing demand provides support. The futures price is under pressure from short - selling. The market may continue to bottom out, and attention should be paid to the development of the epidemic and the potential entry of second - fattening pigs [26]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Apple - **Futures and Spot Prices**: The main contract of apple 2605 is at 9068 yuan/ton, down 0.59%. The arrival volume at several fruit markets has increased, and the national cold - storage inventory is 752.98 million tons, down 0.73% [1]. - **Regional Cold - Storage Inventory**: Shandong accounts for 33% with 248.36 million tons, Shaanxi 28% with 212.45 million tons, and Gansu 16% with 117.27 million tons [5]. Jujube - **Futures and Spot Prices**: The main contract of jujube 2605 is at 8915 yuan/ton, up 0.06%. The prices of Cangzhou's spot jujubes have declined to varying degrees, and the basis is strengthening [8]. Fats and Oils - **Palm Oil**: The export of Malaysian palm oil in December is weak. China's palm oil imports in November reached a yearly high, suppressing the increase of domestic palm oil futures [10]. - **Soybean Oil**: US soybean exports to China are slower than expected, and the South American soybean harvest is expected to be bountiful. The domestic soybean oil supply is sufficient, but the inventory is expected to decrease [10]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The rapeseed oil futures price is affected by the movement of crude oil prices. The spot price fluctuates with the market, and the basis has a narrow range of fluctuations [10]. Sugar - **Futures and Spot Prices**: The main contract of sugar 2605 is at 5102 yuan/ton, down 0.72%. ICE raw sugar is at 14.47 cents/pound, down 1.96%. The spot prices in Nanning and Kunming have declined [12]. - **Industry Data**: The national sugar production and sales have decreased year - on - year, and the industrial inventory has also declined [12]. Cotton - **Futures and Spot Prices**: The main contract of cotton 2605 is at 13960 yuan/ton, up 0.25%. The spot prices are relatively stable, and the basis has declined [15]. - **Industry Data**: The commercial inventory has increased by 28.7% month - on - month, and the import volume has increased by 33.3% [15]. Eggs - **Futures and Spot Prices**: The egg 01 contract is at 3067 yuan/500KG, down 0.81%. The egg - producing area price is at 3.03 yuan/jin, up 0.24% [17]. - **Industry Data**: The egg - chicken苗 price has decreased by 1.75%, and the breeding profit is - 22.62 yuan/feather, down 4.64% [17]. Meal and Beans - **Futures and Spot Prices**: The price of Jiangsu soybean meal is stable at 3100 yuan/ton, and the M2605 contract is at 2747 yuan/ton, down 0.33%. The price of Jiangsu rapeseed meal is at 2400 yuan/ton, down 0.41%, and the RM2605 contract is at 2340 yuan/ton, up 0.39% [19]. - **Import and Processing Profits**: The Brazilian 2 - month shipping schedule's soybean meal import and processing profit is up 4.6%, and the Canadian 1 - month shipping schedule's rapeseed meal import and processing profit is up 6.72% [19]. Corn - **Futures and Spot Prices**: The corn 2603 contract is at 2190 yuan/ton, down 0.73%. The corn starch 2603 contract is at 2493 yuan/ton, down 0.28% [22]. - **Market Situation**: The supply and demand of the corn market are relatively balanced in the short term, but the market sentiment is affected by policy auctions and the expected increase in grain sales [22]. Pigs - **Futures and Spot Prices**: The main contract of pigs 2605 is at 11880 yuan/ton, down 0.63%. The spot prices in various regions have increased to varying degrees [26]. - **Industry Data**: The daily slaughter volume of sample slaughterhouses is 239692, up 3.34%, and the number of fertile sows is 39900000, down 1.12% [26].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings There is no information provided regarding the industry investment ratings in the given reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports 2.1 Oils and Fats Industry - Palm oil: SPPOMA's production data decline supports the market. Malaysian BMD futures may rebound near 3900 ringgit, with a near - weak and far - strong pattern. Domestic Dalian palm oil may find support around 8300 yuan and could fluctuate between 8200 - 8300 yuan [1]. - Soybean oil: Uncertainty in US biodiesel policy may reduce industrial use. Brazilian soybean harvest may pressure CBOT soybean and soybean oil. Domestic supply is sufficient in the short - term, but inventory may decrease during the Spring Festival, with limited basis fluctuation [1]. - Rapeseed oil: US crude oil price movements affect the domestic vegetable oil market. Watch if the 05 contract can stop falling between 8900 - 9000 yuan. Spot prices fluctuate slightly [1]. 2.2 Pig Industry - Spot prices are stable, with increased southern pickling demand. December - January prices are uncertain due to potential pandemic impact and secondary fattening. Spot market has some support from farmers' reluctance to sell. The futures market may adjust narrowly [3]. 2.3 Sugar Industry - ICE raw sugar futures are under pressure due to a favorable supply outlook. Brazilian, Indian, and Thai sugar production is expected to increase. Domestic sugar futures are weak due to increased supply, and prices are likely to remain bearish [7]. 2.4 Meal Industry - US soybeans lack trading highlights, and South American new - crop soybeans have a high yield expectation. Domestic soybean meal supply is loose, and the one - to - five spread is supported, but the upside is limited [9]. 2.5 Corn Industry - Short - term corn supply increase may pressure prices, but farmers' reluctance to sell and low - inventory enterprises' restocking needs limit the decline. The market is in a narrow - range oscillation [10]. 2.6 Red Date Industry - After the acquisition, the sales area has more arrivals but lower - than - expected transactions. Futures prices are weak, while spot prices are stable, and the basis is strengthening. The market may be boosted by improved consumption during the peak season [17]. 2.7 Cotton Industry - ICE cotton futures rose due to short - covering. US cotton exports showed a mixed trend. Domestic cotton has a long - term optimistic outlook but faces short - term downstream pressure. The price may face resistance around 14050 - 14100 yuan [21]. 2.8 Egg Industry - Egg prices are rising gradually, leading to farmers' reluctance to sell. Supply remains sufficient, with stable production and reduced circulation inventory. The market is expected to oscillate at a low level [23]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs 3.1 Oils and Fats Industry 3.1.1 Price Changes - Soybean oil: Spot price in Jiangsu dropped to 8460 yuan, futures price (Y2605) to 8096 yuan, basis increased by 7.69% [1]. - Palm oil: Spot price in Guangdong dropped to 8380 yuan, futures price (P2605) to 8398 yuan, basis increased by 60.87% [1]. - Rapeseed oil: Spot price in Jiangsu dropped to 9570 yuan, futures price (O1605) to 9157 yuan, basis increased by 19.71% [1]. 3.1.2 Spread Changes - Inter - month spreads of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil all decreased [1]. - Spreads between different oils also changed, such as the soybean - palm oil spread and the rapeseed - soybean oil spread [1]. 3.2 Pig Industry 3.2.1 Futures and Spot Prices - Futures prices of different contracts (e.g., 2605, 2603) increased slightly. Spot prices in various regions had different changes, with an overall upward trend in some areas [3]. 3.2.2 Industry Indicators - Slaughter volume increased by 2.48%, while some prices (e.g., daily strip price, piglet price) decreased slightly. Breeding profits improved [3]. 3.3 Sugar Industry 3.3.1 Futures and Spot Markets - Domestic futures prices of sugar showed a weakening trend, and spot prices in Nanning and Kunming decreased. Import sugar prices also declined [7]. 3.3.2 Industry Situation - National and regional sugar production and sales data changed significantly, with a decrease in production and sales in some areas and an increase in imports [7]. 3.4 Meal Industry 3.4.1 Price and Basis Changes - Domestic soybean meal and rapeseed meal prices had different trends, with basis changes. Imported soybean prices were stable, and the basis of some contracts increased [9]. 3.4.2 Market Factors - US soybean is under pressure from South American supply. Domestic soybean meal supply is loose, and market sentiment affects the spread [9]. 3.5 Corn Industry 3.5.1 Price and Inventory Changes - Corn futures and spot prices decreased slightly, and inventory in some warehouses and the number of warehouse receipts decreased. Corn starch futures price increased slightly [10]. 3.5.2 Market Situation - Supply and demand factors, such as farmers' selling behavior and enterprises' procurement, affect the corn market, resulting in a narrow - range oscillation [10]. 3.6 Red Date Industry 3.6.1 Price and Position Changes - Futures prices of red dates decreased slightly, and spot prices in Cangzhou had different trends. The position and the number of warehouse receipts increased [14]. 3.6.2 Market Situation - Sales area arrivals are high, but transactions are lower than expected. The market is weak in the short - term, with potential improvement during the consumption peak [17]. 3.7 Cotton Industry 3.7.1 Futures and Spot Prices - Domestic cotton futures prices decreased slightly, and spot prices increased slightly. ICE cotton futures rose [21]. 3.7.2 Industry Indicators - Commercial and industrial inventories, import volume, and other indicators changed, with downstream inventory accumulation and marginal profit deterioration [21]. 3.8 Egg Industry 3.8.1 Price and Basis Changes - Egg futures prices decreased, and the basis increased. Egg - related prices (e.g., egg - chick price, culled - hen price) had different trends [23]. 3.8.2 Market Situation - Egg supply is sufficient, with stable production and reduced circulation inventory. The market is expected to oscillate at a low level [23].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Soybean Meal**: Short - term consolidation. Sino - US soybean purchases have started, but poor US soybean export data is bearish for the US market sentiment. South American weather rainfall has improved, and there is a lack of bullish drivers. Although the latest domestic soybean meal inventory has decreased week - on - week, it is still high year - on - year. Supply in December is expected to be sufficient for now, and the spot price is relatively resistant to decline. It is expected to maintain a weak and volatile short - term trend [2][5]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: Short - term rebound. Coastal oil mills have zero rapeseed inventory, zero crushing, and low imports, but port inventory is still high year - on - year. During the off - season, the spot price is reduced to destock. There is no major expected change in fundamentals. Import diversification is gradually replacing the Sino - Canadian import contradiction issue, and there is no strong driver for now. It mainly follows the trend of soybean meal. Attention should be paid to Australian rapeseed import policies and the subsequent progress of Sino - Canadian trade [2]. - **Palm Oil**: Short - term consolidation. The export data of Malaysian palm oil in the first 15 days of this month decreased month - on - month. The Malaysian government's expectation of inventory accumulation in December and the average rainfall in Southeast Asia in the second half of the month have combined to create a bearish market sentiment. However, as Southeast Asia gradually enters the production - reduction season, existing short positions in palm oil can be temporarily held, and short - selling operations should be treated with caution. Attention should be paid to short - long opportunities after the adjustment and stabilization [2][10]. - **Soybean Oil**: Short - term oscillation. The domestic soybean oil inventory has slightly decreased week - on - week but is still higher than the five - year average. The improvement in South American weather and weak data from the palm oil side provide insufficient support. Soybean oil is in a bearish downward trend. Attention should be paid to the previous low technical support level, as well as South American weather and US biodiesel policy progress [2]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: Range - bound oscillation. Currently, coastal oil mills have zero operation, zero rapeseed inventory, and zero rapeseed imports in November. Port inventory has continued to decline month - on - month. However, the diversification of imports such as Australian and Russian rapeseed, along with the high - yield of global and Canadian rapeseed, and the commercialization of Australian rapeseed imports are bearish for market sentiment. Rapeseed oil is operating weakly. Attention should be paid to Australian rapeseed import policies and the subsequent progress of Sino - Canadian trade [2]. - **Cotton**: Oscillating with a bullish bias. The US cotton harvest is nearing completion, and Brazil has started the new - season planting. The proportion of weather - related trading in the market is gradually increasing. The current price is not high, and the ICE market is expected to operate in a bottom - oscillating pattern. In China, more than half of the new cotton has been inspected, and the sales progress has significantly slowed down. There is a need to be vigilant against short - term correction risks under market sentiment. Attention should be paid to the change in the subsequent commercial inventory accumulation speed. In terms of operations, it is expected to oscillate at a high level in the near future. Attention should be paid to the opportunity to enter long positions on corrections, and also to the long - term moderate recovery opportunity under the supply - side narrative [2][14]. - **Red Dates**: Weak operation. At the end of the acquisition period, the upward trend of the spot price has paused, and as the peak of new - product listing and the consumption peak season arrive, the price fluctuation on the futures market will increase. High inventory still exerts significant pressure on the rebound of red date prices. Under the pattern of loose supply and demand, a generally bearish attitude is recommended. On the futures market, most of the premium caused by the speculation of a significant reduction in new - season red date production since early June has been gradually squeezed out. The downward trend of short positions on the futures market has slowed down and is approaching the spot cost. In the cooling market environment, attention should be paid to the short - term rebound opportunity at the bottom [2][17]. - **Live Pigs**: Short - sell on rebounds. As the Winter Solstice approaches, the release of live pig slaughter will be concentrated. Although demand indicators such as fresh - meat sales and slaughter have improved, the increase in supply is likely to exceed the increase in demand, and the short - term driving force for pig price increase is limited. Coupled with the late Spring Festival this year and the increase in second - fattening, even if the Winter Solstice expectation fails, the inventory in December will be difficult to clear effectively, and the price will still be under pressure in January. For futures contracts, the 01 contract is only 12 trading days away from the delivery month and is likely to oscillate weakly under the delivery logic. For the 03 contract, in the absence of an unexpected spread of the epidemic, attention should be paid to the opportunity to short - sell on rebounds. For the 0911 contract, due to the divergence between the expected production reduction and capacity reduction, short - term long positions can be taken at low prices for now [2][20]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Soybean Meal - **Inventory Data**: As of December 12, 2025, the national port soybean inventory was 9.162 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 208,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 1.3615 million tons. The soybean inventory of 125 oil mills was 7.3948 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 239,600 tons (3.35%) and a year - on - year increase of 1.3807 million tons (22.96%). The soybean meal inventory was 1.0969 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 65,000 tons (5.59%) and a year - on - year increase of 456,700 tons (71.34%). The physical inventory of soybean meal of 50 feed enterprises was 9.13 days, an increase of 0.64 days from the previous period and 1.05 days from the same period last year [4]. - **Price Data**: The futures price (主力日收盘) of soybean meal was 2,777 yuan/ton, up 19 yuan (0.69%) from the previous day. The national average spot price was 3,153.71 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The soybean crushing profit of the national average was - 64.1098 yuan/ton, a decrease of 8.06 yuan from the previous day [3]. Rapeseed Meal - **Inventory Data**: As of December 12, the coastal area's main oil mill rapeseed inventory was 0 tons, unchanged from the previous week; the rapeseed meal inventory was 0.02 tons, unchanged from the previous week; and the undelivered contract was 0 tons, unchanged from the previous week [8]. - **Price Data**: The futures price (主力日收盘) of rapeseed meal was 2,359 yuan/ton, up 18 yuan (0.77%) from the previous day. The national average spot price was 2,507.37 yuan/ton, up 9.48 yuan (0.38%) from the previous day. The national average rapeseed spot crushing profit was - 517.094 yuan/ton, a decrease of 29.19 yuan from the previous day [6]. Palm Oil - **Inventory Data**: As of December 12, 2025 (the 50th week), the national key - area palm oil commercial inventory was 652,700 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 31,000 tons (4.53%) and a year - on - year increase of 113,500 tons (21.05%) [10]. - **Price Data**: The futures price (主力日收盘) of palm oil was 8,342 yuan/ton, down 68 yuan (- 0.81%) from the previous day. The national average price was 8,448 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan (- 0.47%) from the previous day. The import cost was 8,610 yuan/ton, a decrease of 49 yuan from the previous day [9]. Cotton - **International Situation**: In the US, the cotton harvest is nearing the end, and more than 1.5 million tons of new cotton have been inspected. In India, the daily listing volume of new cotton is between 16,000 and 20,000 tons, and nearly 42,500 tons have been purchased under the MSP. However, there was rainfall in the southern and central regions in late November, which was unfavorable for MSP purchases. In Brazil, the cotton processing progress in 2025 was 73.87%, and the non - main production areas have started sowing new cotton for the 2026 season, with heavy rainfall expected in the main production areas until the end of November [12]. - **Domestic Situation**: New cotton picking is basically completed, with more than 5.4 million tons inspected. The sales progress has significantly slowed down, only increasing by 0.2% to 41.6%. The national total production is expected to be increased by 260,000 tons to 7.68 million tons, and the new - season lint cost is basically locked at 14,600 - 15,000 yuan/ton. In terms of imports, the total imported cotton resources in October were 223,000 tons, almost unchanged from the previous month and 13,500 tons higher than the same period. The national commercial inventory has increased to 4.7 million tons, 100,000 tons higher than the same period; the Xinjiang commercial inventory has increased to 3.88 million tons, about 250,000 tons higher than the same period; and the inventory of the main inland provinces has increased to 190,000 tons, 10,000 tons higher than the same period. The terminal finished - product inventory level is relatively neutral and low [13]. - **Price Data**: The futures price of CF2601 (主力) was 13,930 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan (- 0.07%) from the previous value. The CCIndex (3218B) spot price was 15,144 yuan/ton, up 14 yuan (0.09%) from the previous value [11]. Red Dates - **Supply and Inventory**: The acquisition in the Hetian, Qiemo, and Ruoqiang areas has ended, and the acquisition in other production areas is also nearing the end, with the prices in the production areas showing a weakening trend. The physical inventory of 36 sample points of red dates this week was 15,790 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1,880 tons and 2,848 tons higher than the same period [16]. - **Price Data**: The futures price of CJ2601 (主) was 8,830 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous value. The retail price of general - grade red dates was 7 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous value [15]. Live Pigs - **Supply and Demand**: In the short term, the farming side had active slaughter in November, and the scale enterprises had great pressure on slaughter volume, with the overall plan not well - completed. The planned slaughter volume in December has increased by 3.2%. In the medium term, the number of newly - born piglets of the Steel Union sample enterprises in November decreased by 76,200 to 5.7031 million. In the long term, the inventory of breeding sows in October decreased to 39.9 million, and it is initially expected that the reduction target of 39.5 million tons will be basically achieved by the end of the year. The demand side has gradually entered a situation of both supply and demand booming, but the supply - side narrative may still be the dominant factor [19]. - **Price Data**: The futures closing price of 1h2601 was 11,375 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan (- 0.13%) from the previous value; the national average slaughter price of live pigs was 11,600 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan (0.69%) from the previous value [18].