五矿期货农产品早报 五矿期货农产品团队 从业资格号：F0273729 交易咨询号：Z0002942 邮箱：wangja@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F03116327 交易咨询号：Z0019233 邮箱:yangzeyuan@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F03114441 交易咨询号：Z0022498 电话：010-60167188 邮箱：sxwei@wkqh.cn 王俊 组长、生鲜研究员 【重要资讯】 周四夜盘美豆收盘下跌，北美天气较好限制上方空间，中美贸易谈判也暂未为美豆出口提供利好，但因 为估值较低预计维持区间震荡趋势，豆粕则因中美谈判未报道大豆有关信息获得支撑，市场预期缺乏美 豆买船巴西报价将维持强势。周四豆粕国内豆粕现货稳定，华东报 2870 元/吨，豆粕成交较好，提货仍 然维持高水平，下游库存天数小幅回落处历年中等水平。据 MYSTEEL 统计上周国内压榨大豆 223.89 万 杨泽元 白糖、棉花研究员 美豆产区未来两周降雨预计偏正常，覆盖大部分产区，气温凉爽，总体天气有利。巴西方面，升贴水小 幅上涨。总体来看，外盘大豆处于低估值、供大于求状态，暂未出现明确的方向性驱动，但国内大豆进 口成本则处于 ...

新华财经纽约7月31日电（记者徐静）芝加哥期货交易所玉米、小麦和大豆期价31日涨跌不一。 天气方面，预报显示，未来8至9天，美国平原地区和中西部地区天气将更加干燥，此次持续到8月10日 的干燥天气将有利于作物生长。且之后将迎来的降雨，或将进一步提升作物单产潜力。直到8月中旬美 国中西部地区都不会出现极端高温天气。 （文章来源：新华财经） 早盘抛售压力一度将小麦和大豆期价推至数月新低，玉米期价则从之前的合约低点反弹。不过考虑到美 国作物产量潜力巨大，市场分析机构继续看跌芝加哥主要农产品期价后期走势。 消息面上，美国农业部31日发布的出口销量报告显示，截至7月24日的一周，美国小麦出口销量2180万 蒲式耳，玉米出口销量7090万蒲式耳，大豆出口销量2860万蒲式耳。 当天，芝加哥期货交易所玉米市场交投最活跃的12月合约收于每蒲式耳4.14美元，比前一交易日上涨1.5 美分，涨幅为0.36%；小麦9月合约收于每蒲式耳5.23美元，比前一交易日下跌0.5美分，跌幅为0.1%； 大豆11月合约收于每蒲式耳9.89美元，比前一交易日下跌6.5美分，跌幅为0.65%。 ...

Group 1 - The Bloomberg Grain Index remained stable at 29.0800 points, with a cumulative decline of 3.45% in July, having peaked at 31.1776 points on July 3 before experiencing a significant drop [1] - The index fluctuated around the psychological level of 30 points from July 7 to July 23, followed by a smooth decline, reaching 28.8439 points on July 31 [1] Group 2 - CBOT corn futures increased by 0.36% to $4.1375 per bushel, with a cumulative decline of 3.10% in July [2] - CBOT wheat futures rose by 0.05% to $5.24 per bushel, with a cumulative decline of 3.37% in July [2] - CBOT soybean futures decreased by 0.55% to $9.9025 per bushel, with a cumulative decline of 3.37% in July; soybean meal futures increased by 0.66% with a cumulative decline of 4.26%, while soybean oil futures fell by 2.42% but had a cumulative increase of 4.23% in July [2]

期货盯盘神器专属文章 CBOT农产品晚间分析：美豆失守10美元！技术图表全面破位，空头剑指年度低点9.71美元？当美国中 西部天气转干，这会是农产品价格反弹的"导火索"吗？ 相关链接 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The agricultural product sector is generally under pressure. Corn, eggs, cotton, and sugar are all showing downward trends, while some products like soybean oil are in a state of high - level adjustment, and palm oil, soybean meal, and others are also experiencing downward pressure [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Agricultural Product Sector Overview - Corn prices are under pressure due to factors such as continuous auctions of imported corn, wheat substitution, possible restart of directional rice auctions in August, and the listing of spring corn. It is expected to run weakly in the future [1]. - Egg prices have dropped to a new low because of high egg - laying hen inventory, slow culling of old hens, insufficient capacity reduction, sufficient supply, and average demand. The downward space may expand [1]. - Cotton prices continue to decline due to the expectation of a new cotton harvest and weak downstream demand [1]. - Sugar prices have broken through the support level, and the expected increase in imported sugar volume has suppressed the market [1]. 3.2 Variety Strategy Tracking 3.2.1 Corn - Focus: The main 2509 contract of corn has fallen sharply. Supply is abundant with multiple factors, and demand is weak. Technically, it is weak. The strategy is to hold a light - position short order. The support for the main 2509 contract is 2274, and the resistance is 2300 [2]. 3.2.2 Eggs - Focus: The main 2509 contract of eggs has fallen to a new low this year. The supply - side pressure is high with high egg - laying hen inventory and slow capacity reduction. Demand lacks positive factors. Technically, it is weak. The strategy is to hold a light - position short order. The support for the main 2509 contract is 3500, and the resistance is 3550 [3]. 3.2.3 Soybean Meal - Focus: The 2509 contract of soybean meal has fallen in a volatile manner, affected by the sharp decline of US soybeans in the external market. Supply is sufficient, and some long - positions in the futures market have been closed. Technically, it is weak. The strategy is to hold a light - position short - term short order. The support for the 2509 contract is 2980, and the resistance is 3007 [5]. 3.2.4 Cotton - Focus: The main 2509 contract of cotton has continued to fall, with an expanding downward space. The new cotton harvest expectation and weak downstream demand are negative factors. Technically, it is weak. The strategy is to hold a light - position short order. The support for the main 2509 contract is 13600, and the resistance is 13780 [8]. 3.2.5 Soybean Oil - Focus: The main 2509 contract of soybean oil has fallen and closed in the negative, adjusting at a high level. Supply is sufficient, but there is news of exports to India. Technically, the strength has not been reversed. The strategy is to hold a light - position long order. The support for the main 2509 contract is 8150, and the resistance is 8280 [11]. 3.2.6 Palm Oil - Focus: The main 2509 contract of palm oil has fallen in a volatile manner, adjusting at a high level. The production in Malaysia has increased, and exports have decreased. Technically, it is weak. The strategy is to close long positions and hold a light - position short order. The support for the main 2509 contract is 8810, and the resistance is 8960 [12][15]. 3.2.7 Live Pigs - Focus: The 2509 contract of live pigs has continued to fall, affected by increased supply and weak demand. Technically, it is weak. The strategy is to hold a light - position short order. The support for the main 2509 contract is 14050, and the resistance is 14160 [16]. 3.2.8 Sugar - Focus: The main 2509 contract of Zhengzhou sugar has continued to fall. The expected increase in Brazilian sugar production and concerns about the increase in imported sugar volume in the domestic market have led to long - position closing. Technically, it has turned weak. The strategy is to hold a light - position short order. The support for the main 2509 contract is 5768, and the resistance is 5814 [18]. 3.2.9 Red Dates - Focus: The main 2601 contract of red dates has first risen and then fallen, adjusting downward. The estimated new jujube production has a smaller - than - expected decline, and consumption is in the off - season. The strategy is to reduce long positions. The support for the main 2601 contract is 10500, and the resistance is 10850 [20]. 3.2.10 Apples - Focus: The main 2510 contract of apples has broken through the support level and continued to fall. The inventory trading is average, and the listing of early - maturing apples has not improved the situation. Technically, it is weak. The strategy is to hold a light - position short order. The support for the main 2510 contract is 7755, and the resistance is 7860 [22].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The increasing expectation of a bumper US soybean harvest has led to a slight decline in the Dalian Commodity Exchange (DCE) soybean meal futures. The domestic soybean meal market shows a pattern of strong domestic and weak external performance, with limited upside potential for prices due to inventory pressure. - The current supply of live pigs is steadily increasing, while demand is in the off - season. The impact of macro - policies still dominates the market, and the near - month contracts are expected to be weak, with opportunities to short sell far - month contracts on price rebounds [20]. 3. Section Summaries 3.1 Market Overview - The DCE soybean meal main contract 2509 fell 0.33% to 3000 yuan/ton, while the coastal oil mills' quotes showed mixed changes. The DCE live pig main contract 2509 remained unchanged at 14075 yuan/ton. The national average ex - farm price of outer ternary live pigs rose, and the overnight CBOT US soybean main contract dropped 1.21% [2]. 3.2 Weather in Major Producing Areas - The US Midwest planting belt will have rain this week, with good soil moisture. There will be scattered showers from Monday to Tuesday in both the west and east, with above - normal temperatures until Tuesday. Future weather will have intermittent showers, and the temperature will drop on Wednesday and be near or below normal from Thursday to Sunday. The good soil moisture can relieve crop stress [3][4]. 3.3 Macro and Industry News - Brazil's 2025/2026 soybean production is expected to reach 1.829 billion tons, and corn production is expected to be 1.409 billion tons. - On July 31, the US soybean import cost reached a 4 - month low, and Brazilian and Argentine soybean import costs also declined. - On July 30, domestic mainstream oil mills' soybean meal trading volume decreased, but the average trading price ended a four - day decline. - Forecasts for US soybean and soybean meal export net sales in different market years were given. - As of July 23, Argentine farmers' soybean sales data were reported. - As of July 25, the national main oil mills' soybean meal inventory increased for twelve consecutive weeks but was lower than in 2024 and the three - year average. - Brazil is expected to export 213 million tons of soybean meal in July 2025, up 6% from last year. - From July 14 - 20, 2025, the average purchase price of live pigs by designated slaughtering enterprises decreased both month - on - month and year - on - year. - The USDA estimated US soybean production at 1.18 billion tons, while analysts' surveys estimated it at 43.2 billion bushels. - In July, China's PMI dropped to 49.3% due to factors such as the traditional production off - season and natural disasters, with different performances in key industries [5][6][7]. 3.4 Analysis and Strategies - **Soybean Meal**: US soybean futures hit a low since April due to favorable weather. Trade tariffs put the US at a disadvantage in soybean export competition. The decline in US soybean prices has increased China's soybean import costs. The domestic soybean meal market shows a strong - domestic - weak - external pattern, with limited rebound momentum for futures and potential price constraints in August due to inventory. Oil mills are adjusting strategies to promote far - month basis sales [17][18][19]. - **Live Pigs**: The supply of live pigs is increasing, while demand is in the off - season. There is no new policy guidance currently, and the market is mainly dominated by macro - policies. Near - month contracts are expected to be weak, and opportunities to short sell far - month contracts on price rebounds are recommended [20].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the content about the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Soybean Oil**: The intraday soybean oil opened higher and strengthened, mainly due to the rise in crude oil and the positive fundamentals of soybean oil itself. There has been no significant progress in the Sino - US economic and trade talks regarding soybeans, and there is no driving force for import purchases. There are reports of about one million tons of soybean oil exports from China, and fewer oilseed purchases in the fourth quarter, along with an increase in the direct import of protein meal, which is expected to narrow the oil mill's profit, thus benefiting the price of oils. Long positions in the soybean oil 2601 contract should be held. The resistance level of the soybean oil 01 contract is around 8400 - 8450, and the support level is around 8000 - 8030 yuan/ton [3]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: Since July, the procurement and arrival of rapeseed in China have decreased, and the domestic rapeseed oil inventory has declined from its peak, but it is still at a relatively high level compared to the same period in previous years. The improvement in Sino - Australian trade relations may lead to an increase in rapeseed procurement from Australia, but the potential new imports may be reflected in the new crop, having a relatively limited impact on the 09 contract. There are fewer rapeseed purchases in the third quarter, and there is an expectation of inventory reduction. Long positions should be held, with the support at 9300 - 9330 and the resistance at 9780 - 9790. The long position in the oil - meal ratio should continue to be held [3]. - **Palm Oil**: High - frequency data shows good palm oil production in Malaysia, but the export demand in the first 25 days of July has weakened month - on - month, increasing the inventory pressure in July and weakening the upward momentum of the futures price. The palm oil production in Indonesia is lower than expected, and the inventory is at a low level. The US biodiesel policy is beneficial to the long - term demand for US soybean oil. From the perspective of the international soybean - palm oil price difference, palm oil is cost - effective, and there is restocking demand in India and China. Low - level buying is recommended, with the support at 8704 - 8796 and the resistance at 9480 - 9490 [4]. - **Soybean Meal and Bean No. 2**: There has been no significant progress in the Sino - US economic and trade talks regarding soybeans, and there is no driving force for import purchases. The good rate of US soybeans has recovered, and the main production areas have favorable weather. The direct import expectation of soybean meal has increased, reducing the crushing consumption of bean No. 2. The short - term outlook for soybean meal is bottom - building, and it is recommended to wait and see. The bean No. 2 09 contract is expected to fluctuate and adjust [4]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: Rapeseed meal shows a situation of both weak supply and demand. The supply reduction is more obvious, and there is an expectation of inventory reduction in the third quarter. Low - level buying can be considered. Pay attention to the Sino - Australian and Sino - Canadian trade relations. Light long positions should be held, and the long position in the oil - meal ratio should be closed [5]. - **Corn and Corn Starch**: The futures prices continued to fluctuate and consolidate on Wednesday. The external market fundamentals have not changed much, and the new - season US corn planting area has increased year - on - year, exerting pressure. In the domestic market, there is a contradiction between the release of old - crop grains and the tightening supply in some areas. It is recommended to reduce short positions on dips. For the corn 09 contract, the support range is 2250 - 2260, and the resistance range is 2430 - 2450. For the corn starch 09 contract, the support range is 2600 - 2620, and the resistance range is 2830 - 2840 [6]. - **Soybean No. 1**: The price of soybean No. 1 temporarily stopped falling and rebounded intraday. The supply of new domestic soybeans is gradually increasing, suppressing the price of domestic soybeans. It is recommended to wait and see. The 09 contract should pay attention to the key resistance level in the range of 4250 - 4300 yuan/ton and the support level in the range of 4000 - 4030 yuan/ton [6]. - **Peanuts**: The expected carry - over inventory of old - crop peanuts is low, and the arrival of imported peanuts is scarce. The new - season peanut planting area has increased year - on - year, and there is an expectation of a bumper harvest. It is recommended to partially close short positions near the support level. The support for the 10 contract is 8004 - 8020, and the resistance is 8392 - 8398 [7]. - **Hogs**: The futures price of hogs fluctuated narrowly on Wednesday. The spot price of hogs tends to rise seasonally in August. It is recommended to close long positions in the 09 contract on rallies or transfer positions to the 2511 contract. In the medium term, wait for the market to cool down and the spot price to catch up before buying the 2511 contract on dips [8]. - **Eggs**: The 08 futures price of eggs continued to fall back to the spot price on Wednesday, and the 09 contract fluctuated narrowly. The egg price is expected to seasonally rebound. It is recommended not to short aggressively. Pay attention to the positive spread arbitrage between the 9 - 1 contracts, and aggressive investors can buy the 09 contract on dips, with the reference range of 3500 - 3800 points [9]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 First Part: Sector Strategy Recommendations 3.1.1 Market Analysis - **Oilseeds**: Soybean No. 1 09 is expected to fluctuate, and it is recommended to wait and see; Soybean No. 2 09 is expected to fluctuate and adjust, and it is recommended to wait and see; Peanut 10 is expected to be weakly fluctuating, and short positions should be partially closed [12]. - **Oils**: Soybean oil 01 is expected to rise, and long positions should be held; Rapeseed oil 09 is expected to be strongly fluctuating, and long positions should be held; Palm 09 is expected to fluctuate and adjust, and low - level buying is recommended [12]. - **Protein**: Soybean meal 09 is expected to fluctuate, and it is recommended to wait and see; Rapeseed meal 09 is expected to be strongly fluctuating, and light long positions should be held [12]. - **Energy and By - products**: Corn 09 is expected to fluctuate and consolidate, and short positions should be reduced on dips; Corn starch 09 is expected to fluctuate and consolidate, and short positions should be reduced on dips [12]. - **Livestock Farming**: Hog 09 is expected to rebound fluctuatingly, and long positions should be reduced on rallies; Egg 09 is expected to find the bottom fluctuatingly, and it is recommended to buy on dips [12]. 3.1.2 Commodity Arbitrage - **Oilseeds**: For the spreads of Soybean No. 1 9 - 1, Soybean No. 2 9 - 1, and Peanut 10 - 11, it is recommended to wait and see [13][14]. - **Oils**: For the spreads of Soybean oil 9 - 1, Rapeseed oil 9 - 1, and Palm oil 9 - 1, it is recommended to wait and see. For the 09 Soybean oil - Palm oil spread, short - side operation is recommended; for the 09 Rapeseed oil - Soybean oil spread, long - side operation is recommended; for the 09 Rapeseed oil - Palm oil spread, it is recommended to wait and see [14]. - **Protein**: For the Soybean meal 11 - 1 spread, positive spread arbitrage is recommended; for the Rapeseed meal 9 - 1 spread, it is recommended to wait and see. The 09 Soybean meal - Rapeseed meal spread is expected to fluctuate at a low level [14]. - **Energy and By - products**: For the Corn 9 - 1 and Corn starch 9 - 1 spreads, it is recommended to wait and see. For the 09 Corn starch - Corn spread, it is recommended to wait and see [14]. - **Livestock Farming**: For the Hog 9 - 1 spread, positive spread arbitrage on dips is recommended; for the Egg 9 - 1 spread, positive spread arbitrage on dips is recommended [14]. 3.1.3 Basis and Spot - Futures Strategies The report provides the spot prices, price changes, main - contract basis, and basis changes of various varieties in different sectors, including oilseeds, oils, protein, energy and by - products, and livestock farming [15]. 3.2 Second Part: Key Data Tracking Table 3.2.1 Oils and Oilseeds - **Daily Data**: The report presents the import cost data of soybeans, rapeseeds, and palm oil from different origins and shipping dates, including arrival premiums, CBOT or ICE futures prices, CNF prices, and arrival duty - paid prices [17][18]. - **Weekly Data**: It shows the inventory and operating rates of beans, rapeseeds, palm oil, and peanuts, such as the port soybean inventory, oil - mill soybean meal inventory, and coastal rapeseed inventory [19]. 3.2.2 Feed - **Daily Data**: The import cost data of corn from Argentina and Brazil in different months are provided [19]. - **Weekly Data**: The weekly data of corn and corn starch, including the consumption, inventory, operating rate, and inventory of deep - processing enterprises, are presented [20]. 3.2.3 Livestock Farming - The daily and weekly data of hogs and eggs are provided, including spot prices, price changes, production costs, profits, slaughter data, and inventory data [21][22][23][24][25]. 3.3 Third Part: Fundamental Tracking Charts The report provides various charts to track the fundamentals of the livestock farming end (hogs and eggs), oils and oilseeds (palm oil, soybean oil, peanuts), and feed end (corn, corn starch, rapeseed, soybean meal), such as production, consumption, inventory, and price - related charts [26][36][53]. 3.4 Fourth Part: Option Situations of Soybean Meal, Feed, Livestock Farming, and Oils The report provides charts of historical volatilities and option trading volumes and open interests of related varieties [72][73][78][79]. 3.5 Fifth Part: Warehouse Receipt Situations of Feed, Livestock Farming, and Oils The report provides charts of warehouse receipt situations of related varieties, including rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, soybean oil, palm oil, peanuts, corn, corn starch, hogs, and eggs [75][77][79].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Sugar**: The raw sugar futures price is expected to continue to fluctuate. In the domestic market, the spot price is stable with a slight decline, and the futures price is under pressure from imports. The 09 contract has significantly reduced positions, and the funds have moved to the 2601 contract, with the futures price continuing to fluctuate within a range [3]. - **Pulp**: After the exchange introduced policies, the market's exuberant sentiment cooled down. The fundamentals of the pulp and paper - making industry chain have changed little, and the futures price may adjust following the market sentiment. It is recommended to short - allocate lightly [4]. - **Cotton**: The external market has pressure on the price, while the domestic market is in a game between tight spot supply and weak downstream consumption. The short - term futures price may decline slightly, and it is recommended to close long positions [5][6]. - **Apples**: The futures price fluctuates within a range. The "anti - involution" sentiment has limited impact, and the fundamentals of the old and new seasons cannot provide clear trend guidance [7]. - **Jujubes**: The futures price is affected by emotions and shows a wide - range shock. It is recommended to hold long positions in the 2601 contract and pay attention to the weather during the fruit - setting period [8]. Summary According to the Directory Part I: Sector Strategy Recommendations - **Fresh Fruit Futures**: For Apple 2510, it is recommended to short on rallies, with a support range of 7300 - 7400 and a pressure range of 8200 - 8300. For Jujube 2601, it is recommended to hold long positions, with a support range of 10200 - 10400 and a pressure range of 10500 - 11500 [16]. - **Soft Commodity Futures**: For Sugar 2509, short - term band trading is recommended, with a support range of 5740 - 5760 and a pressure range of 5880 - 5900. For Pulp 2507, it is recommended to short - allocate lightly, with a support range of 5200 - 5250 and a pressure range of 5550 - 5600. For Cotton 2509, it is recommended to close long positions, with a support range of 13200 - 13300 and a pressure range of 14400 - 14500 [16]. Part II: Market News Changes Apple Market - **Fundamentals**: In June 2025, the export volume of fresh apples was about 3.70 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 18.62% and a year - on - year decrease of 38.55%. As of July 16, the national apple cold - storage inventory was 80.60 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 10.89 tons. As of July 17, it was 73.41 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 9.03 tons. Different institutions have different estimates of the new - season apple production, with slight increases or decreases [17]. - **Spot Market**: In the Shandong production area, the mainstream transaction price is stable, and the trading volume is average. In the Shaanxi production area, early - maturing apples are on the market, and the coloration is average. The wholesale market has stable shipments and prices [18]. Jujube Market - As of July 25, the physical inventory of 36 sample points was 10090 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 230 tons. The price of good - quality jujubes in the Hebei market has increased, and the sales speed has accelerated, while the price in the Guangdong market is stable [19]. Sugar Market - India announced that the domestic sugar sales quota for August 2025 is 225 tons, an increase of 5 tons compared with July and the same period last year. The spot price in the domestic market is stable [19]. Pulp Market - Due to the rebound of the pulp futures price on the Shanghai Futures Exchange, the purchasing enthusiasm for imported bleached softwood pulp has increased, and the price tends to be stable. The price of imported bleached hardwood pulp has stabilized, and the domestic spot price has increased slightly. The order price of South American bleached hardwood pulp in July has decreased by $10/ton compared with June [22][24]. Cotton Market - In June 2025, the yarn production of large - scale enterprises was 206.5 tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.9% and a month - on - month increase of 5.84%. The cloth production was 2.78 billion meters, a year - on - year increase of 0.4% and a month - on - month increase of 4.12%. As of July 28, the cotton flowering rate in Xinjiang was about 94.3%, with an increase in the number of bolls [25][26]. Part III: Market Review Futures Market Review | Variety | Closing Price | Daily Change | Daily Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Apple 2510 | 7915 | 7 | 0.09% | | Jujube 2509 | 9640 | - 40 | - 0.41% | | Sugar 2509 | 5804 | - 63 | - 1.07% | | Pulp 2509 | 5326 | - 48 | - 0.89% | | Cotton 2509 | 13755 | - 170 | - 1.22% | [26] Spot Market Review | Variety | Spot Price | Month - on - Month Change | Year - on - Year Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Apple (yuan/jin) | 3.90 | 0.00 | - 0.25 | | Jujube (yuan/kg) | 9.40 | - 0.10 | - 5.30 | | Sugar (yuan/ton) | 6050 | 0 | - 500 | | Pulp (Shandong Yinxing) | 5950 | 0 | - 150 | | Cotton (yuan/ton) | 15470 | - 110 | 24 | [33] Part IV: Basis Situation No specific content provided in the summary. Part V: Inter - month Spread Situation | Variety | Spread | Current Value | Month - on - Month Change | Year - on - Year Change | Forecast | Recommended Strategy | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Apple | 10 - 1 | 100 | - 16 | 43 | Fluctuating | Wait - and - see | | Jujube | 9 - 1 | - 1165 | - 1110 | - 935 | Range - bound | Wait - and - see | | Sugar | 9 - 1 | 138 | 2 | - 190 | Weak in the range | Long 01, short 09 | [49] Part VI: Futures Positioning Situation No specific content provided in the summary. Part VII: Futures Warehouse Receipt Situation | Variety | Warehouse Receipt Volume | Month - on - Month Change | Year - on - Year Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Apple | 0 | 0 | 0 | | Jujube | 8739 | 0 | - 2447 | | Sugar | 19520 | - 226 | 3404 | | Pulp | 254977 | - 122 | - 247037 | | Cotton | 9055 | - 101 | - 2385 | [72] Part VIII: Option - related Data No specific content provided in the summary.

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment strategy for soybeans and peanuts is neutral [4][5] Group 2: Report's Core View - Under the continuation of Sino - US tariff policies, the oilseed market is oscillating. The soybean supply is expected to remain loose, and the peanut market is generally weak with low downstream consumption and cautious middlemen [1][3][4] Group 3: Summary by Related Contents Soybean Market - **Futures and Spot Prices**: The closing price of the soy - one 2509 contract was 4153.00 yuan/ton, up 9.00 yuan/ton (+0.22%) from the previous day. The edible soybean spot basis was A09 + 147, down 9 (-32.14%) from the previous day. On Tuesday, CBOT soybean futures fell for the third consecutive day, with the benchmark contract down 0.3%. Northeast soybean prices were stable, with remaining grain mostly consumed and limited trader inventories [1][2] - **Market Factors**: The Sino - US negotiation result maintained the previous "reciprocal tariff" rate, and the US soybean export expectation had no substantial change. The soybean crop in the Northeast was growing well, and the supply was expected to be loose [3] Peanut Market - **Futures and Spot Prices**: The closing price of the peanut 2510 contract was 8106.00 yuan/ton, up 4.00 yuan/ton (+0.05%) from the previous day. The average peanut spot price was 8580.00 yuan/ton, down 40.00 yuan/ton (-0.46%) month - on - month. The spot basis was PK10 + 94.00, down 4.00 (-4.08%) month - on - month. The domestic peanut market was oscillating slightly downward, with the average price of common peanuts at 4.29 yuan/jin [4] - **Market Factors**: The peanut market was generally weak, with a sluggish downstream consumption environment, light trading, increased operating difficulties for middlemen, and strong risk - aversion sentiment [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for both the bean meal and corn industries is cautiously bearish [3][6] 2. Report's Core View - The market for bean meal and corn is influenced by multiple factors including weather, trade policies, and supply - demand dynamics. For bean meal, the supply is expected to be ample, and for corn, the supply - demand balance is also under the influence of various elements such as import policies and crop conditions [2][5] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Bean Meal 3.1.1 Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the bean meal 2509 contract was 3010 yuan/ton yesterday, up 27 yuan/ton (+0.91%) from the previous day; the closing price of the rapeseed meal 2509 contract was 2735 yuan/ton, up 75 yuan/ton (+2.82%) [1] - Spot: In Tianjin, the bean meal spot price was 2940 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton; in Jiangsu, it was 2870 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton; in Guangdong, it was 2860 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton. In Fujian, the rapeseed meal spot price was 2690 yuan/ton, up 90 yuan/ton [1] - Market Information: From July 1 - 25, Brazil's soybean exports reached 10.447 million tons, with a daily average of 550,000 tons, a 12.4% year - on - year increase. South American soybean exports in July are expected to increase by about 2 million tons year - on - year, with China as the main destination [1] 3.1.2 Market Analysis - The bean meal futures price showed a weak and volatile trend yesterday. The weather in the main US soybean - producing areas is good, and the soybean growth is expected to continue to improve. Macro factors are obvious, with an upcoming Sino - US meeting in August and an expected improvement in trade relations. Domestically, the supply of soybean meal remains loose, with high soybean arrivals and increasing oil mill inventories [2] 3.1.3 Strategy - The strategy for bean meal is cautiously bearish [3] 3.2 Corn 3.2.1 Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the corn 2509 contract was 2312 yuan/ton yesterday, up 10 yuan/ton (+0.43%); the closing price of the corn starch 2509 contract was 2683 yuan/ton, up 17 yuan/ton (+0.64%) [3] - Spot: In Liaoning, the corn spot price was 2150 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; in Jilin, the corn starch spot price was 2720 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [3] - Market Information: As of July 27, 2025, 74% of the US national surface soil moisture was sufficient to excessive. In the main corn - producing states in the Midwest, the proportion of sufficient to excessive soil moisture in Iowa was 85%, in Illinois was 92%, and in Indiana was 77%. As of July 26, the harvest progress of Brazil's second - season corn in the 2024/25 season was 66.1%, and the expected total production was 131.97 million tons, a 14.3% increase from the previous year [4] 3.2.2 Market Analysis - The corn futures price showed a narrow - range volatile trend yesterday. Domestically, on the supply side, after the digestion of negative factors such as imported corn auctions, traders' shipments have stabilized. On the demand side, the operating rate of deep - processing enterprises has declined, and feed enterprises have sufficient corn and wheat inventories. The impact of imported corn auctions on the market has weakened [5] 3.2.3 Strategy - The strategy for corn is cautiously bearish [6]