日度报告——综合晨报 穆迪下调美国信用评级，5 月美通胀预期继续 回升 [T报ab告le_日R期an：k] 2025-05-19 宏观策略（外汇期货(美元指数)） 穆迪下调后 美国失去最后一个最高信用评级 穆迪下调了美国评级，这意味着美国失去了最高信用评级，对 于美国财政赤字的担忧上升，美元短期走弱。 宏观策略（黄金） 5 月美国通胀预期继续回升 综 周五金价震荡收涨，在 3200 美金附近运行，俄乌谈判扰动市场， 穆迪下调美国主权评级，对金价构成提振，但黄金尚未摆脱回 调趋势。美国政府债务问题市场多黄金核心逻辑。 合 农产品（豆粕） 晨 阿根廷大豆收获完成 66% 报 上周国内进口大豆成本变动不大。全国油厂共压榨大豆 190.55 万吨，钢联预估本周压榨升至 220 万吨以上，豆粕将进入季节性 累库周期，现货及基差压力不减。 有色金属（锌） 近期俄罗斯龙兴矿锌矿招标下半年 2-3 万吨锌矿 | 杨云兰 | 高级分析师 （农产品） | | --- | --- | | [Table_Analyser] 从业资格号： | F03107631 | | 投资咨询号： | Z0021468 | | Tel： | 862 ...

Group 1 - The A-share market is expected to see a rebound after a near-term correction, with a target of breaking through 3674 points before the end of June [3] - The Hong Kong market is viewed as more attractive for retail investors, with significant room for growth in indices like the Hang Seng Index and Hang Seng Technology Index, which are at historical low valuations [3] - Core stocks in the A-share market are gradually listing in Hong Kong, indicating a shift in investment focus [3] Group 2 - The overall market is likely to experience sideways movement, with no significant downturn expected unless there are unexpected negative or positive developments [5] - Major weight stocks have not seen substantial gains, but their price-to-earnings ratios limit the potential for significant declines, suggesting a stable outlook for sectors like banking, insurance, and consumer goods [5] - The market is characterized by sector rotation, with undervalued companies expected to recover while overvalued stocks may decline, emphasizing the importance of timing in investment strategies [7]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - The report does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - Domestically, the government emphasizes strengthening the domestic economic cycle, and the consumer market shows steady growth, indicating a stable economic foundation. Overseas, the global economic recovery is uneven, with the US economy strong but facing inflation, and Europe struggling with energy and supply - chain issues. The IMF has lowered the global economic growth forecast [1]. - For key varieties: - Crude oil prices are falling due to the expected US - Iran nuclear deal and a more relaxed supply - demand balance in the oil market [2][14]. - Shipping, especially the container shipping European line, has seen price rebounds due to the easing of Sino - US tariff frictions, with different trends for different contracts [3][35]. - Gold prices are affected by geopolitical negotiations, tariff wars, and Fed policies, currently in a correction phase [4][5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Main News - **International News**: The Fed is considering adjusting its monetary policy framework. The US may face more frequent supply shocks and unstable inflation, and long - term interest rates may rise. The predicted April PCE in the US will increase by about 2.2% year - on - year [6]. - **Domestic News**: The State Council emphasizes strengthening the domestic economic cycle to hedge against international uncertainties and promote high - quality development [1][7]. - **Industry News**: The IEA predicts that the global oil demand growth will slow to 650,000 barrels per day for the rest of 2025, and has lowered the US shale oil production forecast [2][8]. 3.2 Foreign Market Daily Returns - The S&P 500 rose 0.41%, the European STOXX50 rose 0.60%, the FTSE China A50 futures fell 0.38%, the US dollar index fell 0.24%, ICE Brent crude oil fell 1.87%, London gold rose 1.98%, London silver rose 1.33%, and various other commodities had different price changes [10]. 3.3 Morning Comments on Major Varieties - **Financial**: - **Stock Index**: Short - term positive factors such as policy support and tariff negotiation results are beneficial to the stock market. The valuation of major domestic indices is low, and stock index futures are expected to be bullish, while stock index options can use the wide - straddle buying strategy [11]. - **Treasury Bonds**: After the Sino - US talks, market risk appetite increased, and treasury bond futures prices fell with potential short - term volatility [12][13]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: - **Crude Oil**: Prices are falling due to the expected US - Iran nuclear deal and a more relaxed supply - demand balance [2][14]. - **Methanol**: Short - term bullish, with changes in domestic device operation rates and inventory levels [15]. - **Rubber**: Expected to be weakly volatile due to factors such as production area conditions and tariff policies [16]. - **Polyolefins**: After a phased rebound, they may oscillate at high levels, affected by macro factors and crude oil prices [17]. - **Glass and Soda Ash**: The market is reacting positively to the Sino - US financial talks. Glass inventory is slowly decreasing, and soda ash supply is relatively abundant, with both facing inventory digestion challenges [18][19]. - **Metals**: - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver are in a correction phase, affected by geopolitical and tariff factors, and the Fed's wait - and - see attitude [4][5]. - **Copper**: Prices may fluctuate widely, affected by factors such as processing fees, demand, and tariff negotiations [21]. - **Zinc**: Prices may also fluctuate widely, with expectations of improved supply and influenced by tariff negotiations [22]. - **Aluminum**: May be oscillating strongly due to the better - than - expected result of tariff negotiations, despite weakening short - term demand [23][24]. - **Nickel**: Prices may be oscillating strongly, with a mix of positive and negative factors in the market [25]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Prices are weak, with a supply - demand imbalance. Without large - scale production cuts, the price outlook is pessimistic [26]. - **Black Metals**: - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The black - metal sector is recovering due to macro - level positives, but the fundamentals of coking coal are deteriorating, and coke prices may face downward pressure [27]. - **Iron Ore**: Short - term support exists due to iron - water production and demand, but it may be weakly volatile in the later stage due to expected supply increases [28]. - **Steel**: The market faces a situation of increasing supply and weakening demand, with short - term exports stable but a potential seasonal decline in demand [29][30]. - **Agricultural Products**: - **Oils and Fats**: Prices are falling due to factors such as the weakening of US biodiesel speculation, high palm oil production and inventory in Malaysia, and falling crude oil prices [31]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: US soybean prices are rising due to positive factors, but domestic supply is expected to increase, putting pressure on prices [32]. - **Corn and Corn Starch**: The market is in a short - term oscillation. Supply is expected to be tight in July, but high prices may affect downstream acceptance. There is an expectation of imported corn reserve auctions [33]. - **Cotton**: Spot prices are rising with improved macro sentiment. Supply is stable, and the market is bullish in the short - term due to tariff negotiations [34]. - **Shipping Index**: - **Container Shipping European Line**: Prices have rebounded due to the easing of Sino - US tariff frictions. The 06 contract's volatility is expected to be limited, while the 08 contract may remain strong [3][35].

立期现日报 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】12925 2025年5月16日 我就必 Z0019144 | PVC、烧碱现货&期货 | | | --- | --- | | 品种 | 5月15日 | | 山东32%液碱折百价 | 2593.8 | | 山东50%液碱折百价 | 2760.0 | | 华东电石法PVC市场价 | 4880.0 | | 华东乙烯法PVC市场价 | 5100.0 | | SH2505 | 2535.0 | | SH2509 | 2567.0 | | SH基差 | 58.8 | | CHOCAL SEDO | 000 | | SH星差 | 58.8 | 224.8 | -166.0 | -73.9% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SH2505-2509 | -32.0 | -161.0 | 129.0 | 80.1% | | V2505 | 4899.0 | 4860.0 | 39.0 | 0.8% | | V2509 | 5041.0 | 4986.0 | 55.0 | 1.1% | | V基差 | -19.0 | -80.0 | 61. ...

运筹帷幄 决胜千里 宝城期货品种套利数据日报（2025 年 5 月 16 日） 一、动力煤 | 商品 | | | 动力煤（元/吨） | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日期 | 基差 | 5月-1月 | 9月-1月 | 9月-5月 | | 2025/05/15 | -187.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | 2025/05/14 | -184.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | 2025/05/13 | -182.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | 2025/05/12 | -171.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | 2025/05/09 | -171.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | -250 -200 -150 -100 -50 0 50 100 150 200 450 550 650 750 850 950 1050 动力煤基差 基差（右） 动力煤现货价:秦皇岛 期货结算价(活跃合约) :动力煤 www.bcqhgs.com 1 杭州市求是路8号公元大厦东南裙楼1-5层 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【20 ...

晨会纪要 宝城期货原油早报-2025-05-16 品种晨会纪要 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 原油 2507 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 偏弱运行 | 地缘溢价回吐，原油震荡偏弱 | 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货能源化工板块 原油（SC） 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：偏弱运行 核心逻辑：中美经贸会谈达成实质性成果，宏观因子转向乐观。OPEC+产油国加快产能释放未让油价 跌破前低。北半球原油消费旺季到来，炼厂开工率回升，商业库存步入去化周期。国际资金有望增 加油市净多头寸。 ...

北京时间5月15日晚，美股三大指数开盘集体下跌，道指跌0.42%，纳指跌0.68%，标普500指数跌 0.4%。 美国大型科技股多数下跌，谷歌、微软分别上涨0.14%，0.06%；苹果、英伟达、脸书、特斯拉、亚马 逊分别下跌0.15%、0.55%、0.79%、1.83%、2.31%。 | 福彩 成分 | 资讯 | 相关基金 | | --- | --- | --- | | 名称 | 现价 | 涨跌幅 ◆ lil | | 谷歌(ALPHABET). | 167.050 | 0.14% | | GOOG.O | | | | 微软(MICROSOFT | 452.400 | 0.06% | | MSFT.O | | | | 苹果(APPLE) | 212.005 | -0.15% | | AAPL.O | | | | 英伟达(NVIDIA) | 134.590 | -0.55% | | NVDA.O | | | | 脸书(META PLATF | 654.140 | -0.79% | | META.O | | | | 特斯拉(TESLA) | 341.330 | -1.83% | | TSLA.O | | | | 亚 ...

原油大跌，集运偏强 2025 年 5 月 15 日 申银万国期货有限公司 研究所 联系人：马思远 从业资格号：F03141554 联系方式：021-5058 6040 地址：上海东方路 800 号 宝安大厦 7、8、10 楼 邮编：200122 传真：021 5058 8822 网址：www.sywgqh.com.cn 原油：sc 下跌 4.98%。美国劳工部 13 日发布数据显示，美国 4 月份消 费者价格指数(CPI)同比上涨 2.3%，环比数据由上个月的-0.1%扭转为上 涨 0.2%。美国 4 月 CPI 的同比数据低于市场预期的 2.4%。美国石油学 会数据显示，上周美国原油库存增加，同期美国汽油库存和馏分油库 存减少。截止 2025 年 5 月 9 日当周，美国商业原油库存增加 428.7 万 桶；同期美国汽油库存减少 137.4 万桶；馏分油库存减少 367.5 万桶。 库欣地区原油库存减少 85 万桶。美国能源部周初报告说，上周美国石 油战略储备 3.996 万桶，增加了 50 万桶。关注低油价给与美国制裁委 股指：股指回调，美容护理板块领涨，计算机、通信和电子板块领跌， 全市成交额 1.19 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that gold prices continue to decline, reaching a low of $3120 per ounce, the lowest since April 10, despite a weak US dollar and rising expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut [2] - The immediate trigger for the drop in gold prices is the easing of global trade tensions, which has led to a temporary improvement in risk sentiment and stable monetary policy from the Federal Reserve [2] - Current gold prices are at a critical support level, with potential for a rapid decline to $3100 or lower if upcoming US PPI data and comments from Powell are hawkish [2] Group 2 - After breaking below the key support level of $3200, gold has also fallen below the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level, indicating a clear bearish signal [3] - Technical indicators such as MACD and KDJ show increasing bearish momentum, while RSI has entered negative territory, suggesting that downward momentum is not yet over [3] - If gold fails to hold the $3100 support level, the next target could be $3075 [4] Group 3 - In the crude oil market, prices opened at $63.63 and experienced fluctuations, ultimately closing at $62.86, indicating a bearish trend [5] - The analysis suggests a target range for oil prices between $61.0 and $60.7, with a stop loss set at $62.4 [5]

IL期现日报 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1292号 2025年5月15日 Z0020680 苗扬 期货收盘价 | 品种 | 5月14日 | 5月13日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 01合约 | 1814 | 1798 | 16 | 0.89% | 元/吨 | | 05合约 | 1900 | 1930 | -30 | -1.55% | | | 09合约 | 1886 | 1897 | =11 | -0.58% | | | 甲醇主力合约 Hm = A / L / A 3 / | 2365 | 2291 | 74 | 3.23% | | 期货合约价差 | 价差 | 5月14日 | 5月13日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 01合约-05合约 | -86 | -132 | 46 | 34.85% | | | 05合约-09合约 | 14 | 33 | -19 | -57.58% | | | 09合约-01合约 | 72 | дд | ...