1. Natural Rubber Industry - **Report Industry Investment Rating**: Not provided - **Core View**: The fundamentals of natural rubber have changed little. There is still support from the upstream cost side, while downstream enterprises are resistant to high - priced raw materials. The reference range for the 01 contract is 15,000 - 16,500. Follow - up attention should be paid to the raw material output in the peak season of the main producing areas and whether the La Niña phenomenon affects the supply. If the raw material supply is smooth, consider short - selling at high prices; if the supply is poor, the rubber price is expected to remain high [1]. - **Summary by Section**: - **Spot Price and Basis**: On September 10, the price of Yunnan Guofu mobile phone glue (SCRWF) in Shanghai dropped to 15,050 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.31%. The new spread decreased by 34.78%. The price of Thai standard mixed rubber remained unchanged at 15,000 yuan/ton. The price of cup rubber in the international market increased slightly, while the price of glue remained unchanged. The price of raw materials in Hainan increased by 1.49% [1]. - **Monthly Spread**: The 9 - 1 spread decreased by 0.51%, the 1 - 5 spread increased by 22.22%, and the 5 - 9 spread decreased by 0.49% [1]. - **Fundamental Data**: In July, Thailand's production increased by 1.61%, Indonesia's by 12.09%, India's decreased by 2.17%, and China's decreased by 1.3%. The weekly开工率 of semi - steel tires and all - steel tires decreased. The domestic tire production in July decreased by 8.16%, while the export volume of new pneumatic rubber tires increased by 10.51%. The total import volume of natural rubber increased by 2.47%, and the import volume of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex) increased by 5.40%. The production cost of Thai dry glue increased, and the production profit margin of STR20 decreased significantly [1]. - **Inventory Change**: The bonded area inventory decreased by 0.64%, and the factory - warehouse futures inventory of natural rubber on the SHFE increased by 1.99%. The inbound and outbound rates of dry glue in Qingdao showed different changes [1]. 2. Polysilicon Industry - **Report Industry Investment Rating**: Not provided - **Core View**: In September, although there is a reduction in supply on the supply side, factory resumptions offset it, so the overall supply reduction is not obvious. On the demand side, the silicon wafer production schedule has increased slightly month - on - month, and the supply - demand situation in September may show a slight de - stocking pattern. The price increase of polysilicon has been gradually accepted by downstream enterprises, and the spot transmission mechanism is smooth. However, the futures market mainly trades policy expectations, and short - term price fluctuations should be vigilant [2]. - **Summary by Section**: - **Spot Price and Basis**: On September 10, the average price of N - type re - feed decreased by 0.10%, the N - type granular silicon price remained unchanged, and the N - type material basis increased by 30.47%. The prices of some silicon wafers, battery cells, and components remained stable, while some showed small changes [2]. - **Futures Price and Monthly Spread**: The main contract price decreased by 1.19%. The spread between the current month and the first - continuous contract increased by 104.65%, and the spreads between other contracts showed different degrees of change [2]. - **Fundamental Data**: Weekly, the silicon wafer production increased by 3.53%, and the polysilicon production decreased by 2.58%. Monthly, the polysilicon production increased by 23.31%, the import volume increased by 40.30%, the export volume increased by 5.96%, and the net export volume decreased by 14.92%. The silicon wafer production increased by 6.24%, the import volume decreased by 15.41%, the export volume increased by 11.37%, and the net export volume increased by 15.56%. The silicon wafer demand increased by 0.14% [2]. - **Inventory Change**: The polysilicon inventory decreased by 0.94%, the silicon wafer inventory decreased by 6.65%, and the polysilicon warehouse receipt increased by 7.28% [2]. 3. Industrial Silicon Industry - **Report Industry Investment Rating**: Not provided - **Core View**: From the cost side, raw material prices are rising, and the electricity price in the southwest region will increase during the dry season, raising the cost of industrial silicon. Although the current production of industrial silicon has increased month - on - month, there are news of capacity clearance, and small furnaces may be shut down. In the short - term, the supply - demand is in a tight balance. If some capacity is cleared in the long - term, the supply pressure will be reduced. It is recommended to try long positions at low prices, and the main price fluctuation range is expected to be 8,000 - 9,500 yuan/ton [3]. - **Summary by Section**: - **Spot Price and Basis**: On September 10, the prices of East China oxygen - passed SI5530 industrial silicon, East China SI4210 industrial silicon, and Xinjiang 99 silicon remained unchanged. The basis of different types of industrial silicon decreased to varying degrees [3]. - **Monthly Spread**: The 2509 - 2510 spread decreased by 206.25%, the 2510 - 2511 spread decreased by 66.67%, the 2511 - 2512 spread remained unchanged, the 2512 - 2601 spread increased, and the 2601 - 2602 spread decreased by 200.00% [3]. - **Fundamental Data**: Monthly, the national industrial silicon production increased by 14.01%, the production in Xinjiang, Yunnan, and Sichuan all increased, and the national and regional start - up rates also increased. The production of organic silicon DMC increased by 11.66%, the polysilicon production increased by 23.31%, the regenerative aluminum alloy production decreased by 1.60%, and the industrial silicon export volume increased by 8.32% [3]. - **Inventory Change**: The inventory in Xinjiang increased slightly, the factory - warehouse inventory in Yunnan and Sichuan decreased, the social inventory decreased by 0.74%, the warehouse receipt inventory increased slightly, and the non - warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 1.53% [3]. 4. Log Industry - **Report Industry Investment Rating**: Not provided - **Core View**: The log market is in a volatile pattern. The spot market is weakening, and the enthusiasm of traders for imports is decreasing. The arrival volume remains low, and the supply in September is expected to continue at a low level. The inventory is continuously decreasing, and the demand remains above 60,000 cubic meters but has not improved significantly. The futures valuation is relatively low, and it is in the stage of bottom - seeking. It is recommended to go long at low prices [4]. - **Summary by Section**: - **Futures and Spot Price**: On September 10, the 2509 contract of logs increased by 0.12%, the 2511 contract increased by 0.06%, and the 2601 contract decreased slightly. The spreads between different contracts and the basis of different contracts showed small changes. The spot prices of various types of logs in ports remained unchanged [4]. - **Supply**: Monthly, the port shipping volume decreased by 1.51%, and the number of departing ships from New Zealand to China, Japan, and South Korea decreased by 11.32%. The arrival volume of 12 ports in China last week was about 170,000 cubic meters, a new low this year, and the expected arrival volume this week is about 402,000 cubic meters, a week - on - week increase of 136% [4]. - **Inventory**: Weekly, the total inventory of coniferous logs in the country decreased to 2.94 million cubic meters as of September 5 [4]. - **Demand**: Weekly, the average daily outbound volume of logs decreased slightly but remained above 60,000 cubic meters as of September 5 [4]. 5. Glass and Soda Ash Industry - **Report Industry Investment Rating**: Not provided - **Core View**: - **Soda Ash**: The futures market continues to be weak and volatile. The fundamental logic of oversupply persists. Although the inventory has not increased significantly this week, it has actually transferred to the middle and lower reaches, and the trade inventory has increased significantly. The weekly production has returned to a high level of 750,000 tons. In the medium - term, the downstream demand for soda ash will remain at the previous rigid - demand level. After the traditional summer maintenance season in the soda ash industry, the supply is high. If there is no actual capacity exit or load reduction, the inventory will be further pressured. It is recommended to short - sell at high prices on rebounds [5]. - **Glass**: The news of the conversion of coal - gas production lines to clean energy in the Shahe area at the beginning of the week triggered a rise in the futures market, but the specific conversion time is undetermined, and the expected shutdown time is limited. There are still some restart and ignition plans in the future. The factory inventory in the Shahe area is gradually increasing, and the middle - stream inventory has not been significantly reduced. The deep - processing orders have improved seasonally but are still weak. In the long - term, the real - estate cycle is at the bottom, and the industry needs to clear capacity to solve the over - supply problem. Short - term observation is recommended, and the actual demand in the peak season should be focused on in the medium - term [5]. - **Summary by Section**: - **Glass - related Prices and Spreads**: The prices of glass in different regions showed small changes. The prices of glass 2505 and 2509 decreased, and the spread between 05 contracts increased [5]. - **Soda Ash - related Prices and Spreads**: The prices of soda ash in different regions remained unchanged. The price of soda ash 2505 decreased slightly, the price of 2509 increased slightly, and the basis of 05 contracts increased [5]. - **Supply**: The start - up rate of soda ash increased by 4.55%, and the weekly production increased by 4.55%. The daily melting volume of float glass and photovoltaic glass remained unchanged [5]. - **Inventory**: The glass inventory increased by 0.77%, the soda ash factory - warehouse inventory decreased by 2.43%, the soda ash delivery - warehouse inventory increased by 8.03%, and the glass factory's soda ash inventory days decreased by 12.54% [5]. - **Real - estate Data**: The year - on - year changes in new construction area, construction area, completion area, and sales area showed different degrees of decline [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Report's Core View - The steel market is currently in a stalemate with steel products under pressure from supra - seasonal inventory accumulation and limited upward movement in the futures market. The market awaits signals of improved peak - season demand or supply contraction. Iron ore prices are relatively firm due to steel mill复产 and weak coking coal, but there are accumulating risks in the industry chain. The coking coal and coke market has a deteriorating supply - demand balance in the short - term, and the rebound space of coking coal is limited. The ferroalloy market is in a game between strong expectations and weak reality. The soda ash market has a pattern of strong supply and weak demand, and the glass market has a near - term pattern of strong supply and weak demand [3][20][30][44]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel Section - **Market News Impact**: News that the Guinea government may require mining companies to build local smelters has potentially affected the shipping expectations of Simandou iron ore, pushing up the iron ore futures market, but the event is highly uncertain [3]. - **Trading Logic**: The market interprets the price increase as due to steel mill复产 and restocking after the parade and a decline in Brazilian ore shipments. Currently, hot metal production is expected to quickly return to a high level, while steel products are in a supra - seasonal de - stocking phase. In this situation, profits should be reduced to suppress supply, but the peak - season demand has not been falsified, and there is resistance to the downward movement of steel product prices, allowing raw materials to squeeze profits [3]. - **Price Outlook**: The steel futures market is expected to be volatile and weak in the near term, waiting for verification of peak - season demand. Breaking the current deadlock requires signals of substantial improvement in peak - season demand or actual supply contraction [3]. - **Price Data**: On September 10, 2025, the closing price of rebar 01 contract was 3109 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan from the previous day; the closing price of hot - rolled coil 01 contract was 3342 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan from the previous day [4]. Iron Ore Section - **Price Influencing Factors**: The main reason for yesterday's price increase was a news report, but the possibility of binding smelter construction to iron ore mining is low, and the event has poor tradability. Iron ore prices have been relatively firm recently due to steel mill复产 and weak coking coal, but there are increasing risks in the industry chain, including low steel mill profits, supra - seasonal inventory accumulation of hot - rolled coils, rising rebar inventory, and increasing supply pressure [20]. - **Price Data**: On September 10, 2025, the closing price of 01 iron ore contract was 805 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; the closing price of 05 contract was 781 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; the closing price of 09 contract was 847.5 yuan/ton, down 2.5 yuan from the previous day [21]. - **Fundamental Data**: As of September 5, 2025, the average daily hot metal production was 228.84 tons, a weekly decrease of 11.29 tons; the 45 - port ore handling volume was 317.78 tons, a weekly decrease of 0.86 tons; the apparent demand for five major steel products was 828 tons, a weekly decrease of 30 tons [24]. Coal and Coke Section - **Market Situation**: After the end of production restrictions, mines have resumed production. Steel mills have initiated a round of price cuts, and coking enterprises are pessimistic about the future, with a willingness to reduce coking coal inventory. The supply - demand balance of coking coal has deteriorated marginally, while the supply - demand gap of coke is expected to narrow. In the short - term, the coking coal rebound space is limited, and in the long - term, investors need to be vigilant about the impact of macro - sentiment fluctuations on the coal and coke market [30]. - **Price Data**: On September 10, 2025, the coking coal warehouse - receipt cost (Tangshan Mongolian 5) was 1144 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; the coke warehouse - receipt cost (Rizhao Port wet - quenched) was 1573 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [34]. Ferroalloy Section - **Market Situation**: The term structure of ferroalloys has gradually improved, with some contracts changing from contango to backwardation, which is favorable for short - term price increases. The long - term trading logic is based on the anti - involution expectation. The market is in a game between strong expectations and weak reality [44]. - **Price Data**: On September 10, 2025, the silicon - iron basis in Ningxia was - 28 yuan/ton, down 38 yuan from the previous day; the silicon - manganese basis in Inner Mongolia was 176 yuan/ton, down 16 yuan from the previous day [45][48]. Soda Ash Section - **Market Situation**: The mid - to long - term supply of soda ash is expected to remain high. The downstream demand is relatively stable, and the supply - demand pattern of strong supply and weak demand remains unchanged. Attention should be paid to changes in cost and supply expectations [58]. - **Price Data**: On September 10, 2025, the closing price of soda ash 05 contract was 1353 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan from the previous day; the closing price of 09 contract was 1162 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan from the previous day; the closing price of 01 contract was 1281 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan from the previous day [59]. Glass Section - **Market Situation**: The near - term supply - demand pattern of glass is one of strong supply and weak demand, with high inventory in the upper and middle reaches and limited short - term restocking ability. The supply is expected to remain stable with a slight upward trend. The market is in a state of weak balance to weak surplus. Attention should be paid to supply ignition expectations, coal price trends, and the impact of seasonal demand on inventory [84]. - **Price Data**: On September 10, 2025, the closing price of glass 05 contract was 1279 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan from the previous day; the closing price of 09 contract was 995 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan from the previous day; the closing price of 01 contract was 1181 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan from the previous day [85].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. Core Views - The domestic bond market is expected to benefit from the relatively optimistic liquidity environment, and attention should be paid to the introduction of policies to promote service consumption [2]. - The RMB exchange rate is likely to oscillate between 7.10 - 7.16 this week, and its short - term strengthening depends on the continuous improvement of internal and external environments [3]. - The phased correction of stock indices may be over, and they are expected to return to a relatively strong trend [3]. - The Treasury bond market should be operated with a band - trading strategy [5]. - The shipping index is expected to continue to oscillate or oscillate with a downward bias, and short - term operations are recommended [8]. - Precious metals are expected to be bullish in the medium - to - long term, and a strategy of buying on dips is recommended [11]. - Copper prices may rebound after finding support, with a weekly price range of 79,100 - 80,200 yuan per ton [13]. - Aluminum is expected to be oscillating with a strong bias, alumina should be on the sidelines, and cast aluminum alloy is expected to be oscillating with a strong bias [15]. - Zinc should be on the sidelines for the time being [16]. - Nickel and stainless steel are expected to oscillate between 118,000 - 126,000 yuan and 12,500 - 13,100 yuan respectively [19]. - Tin prices are pushed up by tight supply [19]. - Lead is expected to oscillate [22]. - Steel products are expected to oscillate weakly in the short term, and attention should be paid to the demand in the peak season and macro - policies [23][24]. - Iron ore has more risks than opportunities, and it is recommended to take profits on long positions and build short positions on high prices [25]. - Coking coal and coke are expected to oscillate widely, and it is not recommended to short coking coal [27]. - It is recommended to lightly test long positions in ferrosilicon and ferromanganese, but there is a risk of a pull - back if there is no substantial progress in the "anti - involution" policy [28][29]. - Crude oil may enter a downward trend in the medium term, and attention should be paid to the Fed's interest - rate meeting and OPEC +'s production - resumption rhythm [32]. - LPG fluctuates with crude oil [33]. - PX - TA prices are expected to be weak in the short term, and it is recommended to expand the processing margin of PTA01 below 260 [34][35]. - MEG is expected to be easy to rise and difficult to fall, and it is recommended to buy on dips within the range [38]. - It is recommended to hold long positions in methanol [39]. - PP has cost support in the short term, and it is recommended to look for opportunities to go long on dips [40]. - PE is expected to oscillate, and it needs to wait for a clear signal of demand recovery [42]. - PVC is difficult to trade due to repeated speculations, and it is recommended to wait and see [44]. - Pure benzene is expected to oscillate weakly, and benzene styrene is expected to oscillate in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see [45][46]. - Fuel oil is dragged down by crude oil, and low - sulfur fuel oil is recommended to wait for long - position opportunities [46][47]. - Asphalt is recommended to try long - position allocation after the short - term stabilization of crude oil [48]. - Urea is in a weak supply - demand pattern, and continuous attention should be paid to the 1 - 5 reverse spread opportunity [49][50]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Financial Futures - **Macro**: The domestic liquidity environment is expected to be relatively optimistic, which is beneficial to the bond market. Attention should be paid to policies to promote service consumption. Overseas, the long - term bond market has experienced a "Black September," and the focus is on the Fed's dot - plot [2]. - **RMB Exchange Rate**: The RMB exchange rate is mainly affected by the US dollar index. It is expected to oscillate between 7.10 - 7.16 this week, and attention should be paid to Sino - US economic data [3]. - **Stock Indices**: The phased correction may be over, and stock indices are expected to return to a relatively strong trend due to the expected loosening of liquidity [3][4]. - **Treasury Bonds**: A band - trading strategy is recommended [5]. - **Shipping Index**: It is expected to continue to oscillate or oscillate with a downward bias, and short - term operations are recommended [8]. Commodities Non - ferrous Metals - **Gold & Silver**: Weak employment data boosts recession trading. Gold and silver are expected to be bullish in the medium - to - long term, and a strategy of buying on dips is recommended [9][11]. - **Copper**: US non - farm data drags down copper prices, which may rebound after finding support, with a weekly price range of 79,100 - 80,200 yuan per ton [13]. - **Aluminum Industry Chain**: Aluminum is expected to be oscillating with a strong bias, alumina should be on the sidelines, and cast aluminum alloy is expected to be oscillating with a strong bias [14][15]. - **Zinc**: It should be on the sidelines for the time being due to non - farm data falling short of expectations [16]. - **Nickel & Stainless Steel**: They are expected to oscillate between 118,000 - 126,000 yuan and 12,500 - 13,100 yuan respectively, and attention should be paid to macro - level disturbances [18][19]. - **Tin**: Tin prices are pushed up by tight supply, and a V - shaped rebound is expected [19]. - **Lead**: It is expected to oscillate, and strategies such as selling out - of - the - money call options can be considered [21][22]. Black Metals - **Rebar & Hot - Rolled Coil**: The steel market is in a weak supply - demand pattern, and the short - term trend is expected to be oscillating weakly. Attention should be paid to the demand in the peak season and macro - policies [23][24]. - **Iron Ore**: It has more risks than opportunities, and it is recommended to take profits on long positions and build short positions on high prices [25]. - **Coking Coal & Coke**: They are expected to oscillate widely, and it is not recommended to short coking coal [27]. - **Ferrosilicon & Ferromanganese**: It is recommended to lightly test long positions, but there is a risk of a pull - back if there is no substantial progress in the "anti - involution" policy [28][29]. Energy & Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: It may enter a downward trend in the medium term, and attention should be paid to the Fed's interest - rate meeting and OPEC +'s production - resumption rhythm [32]. - **LPG**: It fluctuates with crude oil [33]. - **PX - TA**: Prices are expected to be weak in the short term, and it is recommended to expand the processing margin of PTA01 below 260 [34][35]. - **MEG**: It is expected to be easy to rise and difficult to fall, and it is recommended to buy on dips within the range [38]. - **Methanol**: It is recommended to hold long positions [39]. - **PP**: It has cost support in the short term, and it is recommended to look for opportunities to go long on dips [40]. - **PE**: It is expected to oscillate, and it needs to wait for a clear signal of demand recovery [42]. - **PVC**: It is difficult to trade due to repeated speculations, and it is recommended to wait and see [44]. - **Pure Benzene & Benzene Styrene**: Pure benzene is expected to oscillate weakly, and benzene styrene is expected to oscillate in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see [45][46]. - **Fuel Oil**: It is dragged down by crude oil, and low - sulfur fuel oil is recommended to wait for long - position opportunities [46][47]. - **Asphalt**: It is recommended to try long - position allocation after the short - term stabilization of crude oil [48]. - **Urea**: It is in a weak supply - demand pattern, and continuous attention should be paid to the 1 - 5 reverse spread opportunity [49][50].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The steel market has entered the peak season, but demand is weak, with steel mill profits shrinking and the market showing weak characteristics. If demand fails to recover, prices may decline further. Attention should be paid to terminal demand recovery and cost - side support [3]. - The "anti - involution" policy's impact on the black sector depends on its implementation and effectiveness. The focus in the near future is on real - world demand verification, and there is a risk of downward price adjustment due to potential mismatches between supply and demand [10]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Price and Position Data**: The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3143 yuan/ton, up 26 yuan/ton (0.834%); the registered warehouse receipts were 230,131 tons, up 7,582 tons; the main contract position was 1.737894 million lots, up 1462 lots. The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3340 yuan/ton, up 27 yuan/ton (0.814%); the registered warehouse receipts were 24,459 tons, unchanged; the main contract position was 1.300035 million lots, up 16,610 lots [2]. - **Market Analysis**: The overall commodity market atmosphere is good, but steel prices are under pressure. Macro - level news has boosted the market, but export is weak. Rebar's apparent demand is weak and inventory accumulation pressure is high; hot - rolled coil has significant production cuts, and overall demand is neutral to weak with rising inventory [3]. Iron Ore - **Price and Position Data**: The iron ore main contract (I2601) closed at 789.50 yuan/ton, with a change of - 0.25% (- 2.00), and the position changed to 501,400 lots. The weighted position was 815,400 lots. The spot price of PB powder at Qingdao Port was 782 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 41.73 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 5.02% [5]. - **Market Analysis**: Overseas iron ore shipments have increased, with a slight decline in Australian shipments and a significant increase in Brazilian shipments. The near - end arrival volume has increased. The daily average molten iron output has decreased, and the steel mill profitability rate has continued to decline. Port inventory has increased, while steel mill imported ore inventory has decreased [6]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Price and Position Data**: On September 5th, the manganese silicon main contract (SM509) closed up 1.99% at 5844 yuan/ton; the ferrosilicon main contract (SF511) closed up 1.86% at 5598 yuan/ton [8]. - **Market Analysis**: The "anti - involution" rumor has affected the market, but the focus in the future is on real - world demand verification. The fundamentals of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon are not ideal, and they are likely to follow the black sector's sentiment, especially that of coking coal [9][10]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Price and Position Data**: The closing price of the industrial silicon main contract (SI2511) was 8820 yuan/ton, up 3.58% (+ 305). The weighted contract position increased by 11,979 lots to 493,883 lots. The closing price of the polysilicon main contract (PS2511) was 56,735 yuan/ton, up 8.70% (+ 4540), and the weighted contract position increased by 55,722 lots to 372,715 lots [12][15]. - **Market Analysis**: Industrial silicon is in a "weak reality" situation, and its price may fluctuate. Polysilicon is in a "weak reality, strong expectation" pattern, and its price may continue to rise if capacity integration makes progress [14][16]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Price and Inventory Data**: The spot price of glass in Shahe was 1130 yuan, unchanged; the national floating glass sample enterprise inventory was 63.05 million weight cases, up 0.77% month - on - month. The spot price of soda ash was 1210 yuan, up 20 yuan; the domestic soda ash factory inventory was 1.8221 million tons, up 0.15% [18][19]. - **Market Analysis**: The glass market is stable with general trading, and prices have limited adjustment space. Soda ash prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term and gradually increase in the long term, but the upside is restricted by demand [18][19].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the chemical industry [9] Core Insights - The chemical industry experienced a slight revenue increase of 1.9% year-on-year in H1 2025, with total revenue reaching 12,630.5 billion yuan, while net profit decreased by 1.0% to 746.7 billion yuan. The gross margin remained stable at 16.8% [2][5][17] - The outlook for the chemical sector is optimistic, with expectations of demand recovery driven by anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and domestic policies aimed at reducing competition. This could lead to a positive supply-demand dynamic [2][18] - Key sub-sectors such as fluorochemicals, pesticides, additives, potassium fertilizers, and compound fertilizers showed significant year-on-year profit growth in H1 2025 [5][6] Summary by Sections Overall Performance - In H1 2025, the chemical industry saw a slight revenue increase to 12,630.5 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 1.9%. Net profit was 746.7 billion yuan, down 1.0% from the previous year. The gross margin was stable at 16.8% [5][17] - The industry is experiencing a low-level oscillation in its economic performance, with capital expenditures declining and many chemical products nearing the end of their expansion cycles [5][17] Key Sub-sectors Analysis - **Fluorochemicals**: Achieved a net profit of 34.5 billion yuan in H1 2025, a 133.8% increase year-on-year, driven by a new pricing model for refrigerants [6][35] - **Phosphorus Chemicals**: Generated a net profit of 42.9 billion yuan, down 2.2% year-on-year, but with stable pricing for phosphate rock [6][46] - **Potassium Fertilizers**: Reported a net profit of 56.6 billion yuan, up 39.7% year-on-year, with strong demand and rising prices [6][52] - **Pesticides**: Achieved a net profit of 51.9 billion yuan, a 90.3% increase year-on-year, indicating signs of recovery in the market [6][35] - **Soda Ash**: Experienced a significant decline in net profit, down 72.5% year-on-year, but potential recovery is anticipated due to policy changes [6][38] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests actively investing in the chemical sector, particularly in cyclical and growth-oriented companies such as Wanhua Chemical, Hualu Hengsheng, and Longbai Group, as well as in sectors benefiting from new production capabilities and stable growth [7][38]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings The report does not provide overall industry investment ratings. Instead, it offers specific investment suggestions for different varieties within various sectors. 2. Core Viewpoints - The A-share market may enter a high-level oscillation pattern after significant gains, and the volatility has increased. The bond market is likely to remain range-bound, and the precious metals market has ended its continuous rise and slightly declined. The shipping index is weakly oscillating, and the steel and iron ore markets are affected by supply and demand factors. The energy and chemical sectors show different trends, and the agricultural products market is influenced by factors such as supply expectations and seasonal reports [2]. 3. Summary by Categories Financial - **Stock Index Futures**: The current basis rates of IF, IH, IC, and IM main contracts are -0.36%, -0.37%, -0.77%, and -0.54% respectively. The A-share market may enter a high-level oscillation pattern, and it is recommended to wait and see [2]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The 10-year treasury bond interest rate may oscillate between 1.74% - 1.8%, and the T2512 contract may fluctuate between 107.6 - 108.4. It is recommended to conduct range operations [2]. - **Precious Metals**: The safe-haven sentiment has subsided, and the precious metals market has ended its continuous rise and slightly declined. It is recommended to buy gold cautiously at low prices or use out-of-the-money call options for hedging. For silver, short-term high-sell and low-buy operations are recommended [2]. Black - **Steel**: The steel price is affected by production restrictions and off-season demand. It is recommended to pay attention to the long position of the steel-ore ratio. The iron ore price fluctuates with the steel price, and it is recommended to conduct range operations [2]. - **Coking Coal**: The spot price is oscillating weakly. It is recommended to reduce short positions appropriately and conduct arbitrage operations [2]. - **Coke**: The seventh round of price increases by mainstream coking plants has been implemented, and the coking profit continues to recover. It is recommended to reduce short positions appropriately and conduct arbitrage operations [2]. Non-Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The copper price center has risen, and the spot trading is weak. The main contract reference range is 79,000 - 81,000 [2]. - **Aluminum and Its Alloys**: The supply of aluminum is highly certain, and it is necessary to focus on the fulfillment of peak-season demand and the inventory inflection point. The main contract reference ranges for aluminum, aluminum alloy, zinc, tin, nickel, and stainless steel are provided [2]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The EIA inventory increase and supply increment expectations put pressure on the oil price. It is recommended to take a short position. The support levels for WTI, Brent, and SC are provided [2]. - **Other Chemicals**: Different chemicals such as urea, PX, PTA, short fiber, bottle chip, ethylene glycol, caustic soda, PVC, benzene, styrene, synthetic rubber, LLDPE, PP, methanol, and others have different trends and corresponding investment suggestions [2]. Agricultural Products - **Grains and Oils**: The abundant harvest expectation suppresses the US soybean price, while the domestic expectation remains positive. It is recommended to arrange long positions for the 01 contract. The palm oil is waiting for the MPOB report, and the short-term oscillation range is provided [2]. - **Livestock and Poultry**: The supply and demand contradiction in the pig market is limited, and the market shows a weakly oscillating pattern. The corn price is oscillating and adjusting, and it is recommended to short on rebounds [2]. - **Other Agricultural Products**: The overseas sugar supply is expected to be loose, and the raw sugar price has broken through the support level. It is recommended to gradually close short positions. The cotton inventory is low, and it is recommended to wait and see. The egg market has some demand support, but the long-term trend is still bearish. The apple price is running around 8,350, and the jujube price has dropped significantly. The soda ash and glass markets are in a bearish pattern, and it is recommended to hold short positions [2]. Special Commodities - **Rubber**: The rubber market has a strong fundamental situation, and the price is oscillating at a high level. It is recommended to short at high positions if the raw material price rises smoothly [2]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The spot price has risen slightly, and the main price fluctuation range is expected to be between 8,000 - 9,500 yuan/ton [2]. New Energy - **Polysilicon**: The self-discipline supports the polysilicon price to rise temporarily, and it is recommended to wait and see [2]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The market sentiment has improved, and the fundamental situation remains in a tight balance. It is recommended to wait and see [2].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the industry is "Oscillation", indicating that the expected price fluctuations are within plus or minus one standard deviation in the next 2 - 12 weeks [7][97] Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term impact of military parade production restrictions has ended, and enterprises in the industrial chain are resuming production. Hot metal is expected to return to a high level of 240,000 tons per day, supporting the demand for furnace materials. The performance of peak - season demand and domestic and foreign macro - policies will further intensify the sector's fluctuations [7] - Future market focus will revolve around "downstream inventory replenishment", "peak - season demand", and "overseas interest rate cuts", and attention should be paid to the possibility of the sector rising under the resonance of these three factors [1] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Iron Element - Overseas mine shipments and arrivals at 45 ports increased month - on - month as expected. Due to the military parade production restrictions, hot metal production decreased significantly, but since September 4th, blast furnaces in Tangshan have resumed production intensively. It is expected that the impact on hot metal production reduction will be limited, and it is expected to return to a high level next week. The total iron ore inventory has increased slightly. If downstream inventory replenishment starts before the National Day, the fundamentals are supported, and the future price is expected to oscillate. For scrap steel, the fundamental contradictions are not prominent. The low profit of electric furnaces and tight resources are expected to keep the short - term price oscillating [2] 2. Carbon Element - After the military parade, steel mills will enter the peak - production season, and the short - term price is expected to remain oscillating under demand support. After the military parade, coal mines will gradually resume production but are unlikely to reach the previous high. The arrival of the downstream demand peak season still supports the coking coal price [2] 3. Alloys - For manganese silicon, the prices of manganese ore and coke are weak, the cost support is insufficient, and the market supply - demand expectation is pessimistic. In the long - term, there is still significant downward pressure on the price, and attention should be paid to the reduction range of raw material costs. For silicon iron, the current cost still provides some support, but in the long - term, as the market supply - demand relationship becomes looser, the price center will tend to decline, and attention should be paid to the coal market dynamics and the adjustment of electricity costs in the main production areas [2] 4. Glass and Soda Ash - Glass has weak real - world demand, but there are expectations for the peak season and policies. After the mid - stream inventory reduction, there may still be a wave of oscillations. In the long - term, market - oriented capacity reduction is needed, and if the price returns to fundamental trading, it is expected to decline oscillatingly. Soda ash still has an oversupply situation. After the futures price decline, spot trading has increased slightly, and it is expected to run with wide - range oscillations in the future. In the long - term, the price center will decline to promote capacity reduction [3] 5. Individual Product Analysis - **Steel**: The fundamentals are weak, with both supply and demand decreasing and inventory accumulating rapidly. After the military parade, hot metal production may recover, and attention should be paid to the release of short - term inventory replenishment demand during the peak season, which may support the price [8] - **Iron Ore**: Supply and inventory are stable, and there is an expectation of demand recovery. The fundamentals are supported, and the future price is expected to oscillate [9] - **Scrap Steel**: The daily consumption has decreased slightly, and the price is expected to oscillate due to low electric - furnace profits and tight resources [10] - **Coke**: After the military parade, steel mills will enter the peak - production season, and the short - term price is expected to oscillate [11] - **Coking Coal**: After the military parade, coal mines will gradually resume production but are unlikely to reach the previous high. The arrival of the downstream demand peak season still supports the price [12] - **Glass**: Real - world demand is weak, but there are peak - season and policy expectations. After mid - stream inventory reduction, there may be oscillations. In the long - term, market - oriented capacity reduction is needed, and the price is expected to decline oscillatingly [12] - **Soda Ash**: The oversupply situation remains unchanged. After the futures price decline, spot trading has increased slightly, and it is expected to run with wide - range oscillations. In the long - term, the price center will decline to promote capacity reduction [15] - **Manganese Silicon**: The cost support is weak, and there is significant downward pressure on the price in the long - term. Attention should be paid to the reduction range of raw material costs [16] - **Silicon Iron**: The current cost provides some support, but in the long - term, the price center will tend to decline. Attention should be paid to the coal market dynamics and the adjustment of electricity costs in the main production areas [17]

Group 1: Glass Market Dynamics - The glass market is currently facing challenges with a slowdown in supply-demand recovery, despite the typical demand-driven period in summer and autumn and the effectiveness of domestic consumption support policies [1] - Short-term inventory rebound is putting pressure on supply-demand digestion, making market trends more complex due to intertwining policy expectations and short-term consumption drivers [1] - In July and August, domestic glass prices showed a trend of rising first and then falling, with July's rapid price rebound driven by policy expectations not translating into significant improvements in the actual fundamentals [5] Group 2: Soda Ash Market Dynamics - The soda ash market is showing positive signs with a trend towards recovery after short-term adjustments from both supply and demand sides, as indicated by a two-week decline in inventory [3] - In August, the market shifted focus from expectations to reality, with spot prices falling leading to a contraction in supply, increased factory maintenance, and a decrease in industry operating rates [3][5] - As of last week, soda ash production enterprise inventory decreased by approximately 150,000 tons compared to peak levels, laying a good foundation for the consumption season in September [3]

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 纯碱早报 2025-9-5 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日观点 纯碱： 1、基本面：碱厂检修较少，供给仍处高位；下游浮法玻璃日熔量平稳，光伏日熔量下滑，终端 需求走弱，纯碱厂库处于历史高位；偏空 2、基差：河北沙河重质纯碱现货价1190元/吨，SA2601收盘价为1277元/吨，基差为-87元，期货 升水现货；偏空 3、库存：全国纯碱厂内库存182.21万吨，较前一周减少2.43%，库存在5年均值上方运行；偏空 4、盘面：价格在20日线下方运行，20日线向下；偏空 5、主力持仓：主力持仓净空，空增；偏空 6、预期：纯碱基本面供强需弱，短期预计震荡偏弱运行为主。 影响因素总结 利多： 1、年内检修高峰期来临，产量预计将有所下滑。 利空： 1、23年以来，纯碱产能大幅扩张，今 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views - The short - term index faces adjustment pressure, but the long - term trend is to go long on dips. The bond market is expected to be volatile in the short term, and interest rates may decline in the long term. For most commodities, the market is affected by factors such as supply and demand, policies, and macro - economic conditions, and different trading strategies are recommended for different commodities [3][5]. Summaries by Categories Macro - Financial Stock Index - **News**: The State Council aims to boost the sports industry, the central bank conducts a 10000 - billion - yuan reverse repurchase, US Treasury yields decline, and Goldman Sachs predicts a potential rise in gold prices [2]. - **Basis Ratio**: The basis ratios of IF, IC, IM, and IH in different periods are provided, showing negative values [3]. - **Trading Logic**: After the previous rise, high - level sectors like AI are adjusting, and trading volume is shrinking. However, policy support for the capital market remains, so the long - term strategy is to go long on dips [3]. Treasury Bonds - **Market**: On Thursday, the main contracts of TL, T, and TF rose, while TS declined. The central bank conducts a 10000 - billion - yuan reverse repurchase, and the State Council promotes sports consumption. The central bank conducts a 2126 - billion - yuan 7 - day reverse repurchase with a net withdrawal of 2035 billion yuan [4]. - **Strategy**: The manufacturing PMI improved in August but is still below the boom - bust line. The central bank maintains a loose monetary policy. Interest rates may decline in the long term, but the bond market may be volatile in the short term [5]. Precious Metals - **Market**: Shanghai gold and silver, and COMEX gold and silver all declined. The US 10 - year Treasury yield is 4.17%, and the US dollar index is 98.29 [6]. - **Outlook**: US employment data is weak, and Fed officials are dovish. The labor market has weakened. Gold and silver prices are supported at high levels. It is recommended to go long on dips, with reference price ranges provided [6][7]. Non - Ferrous Metals Copper - **Market**: Copper prices declined. LME copper inventory decreased, while domestic social inventory increased. The price is supported by tight supply and approaching peak season. Reference price ranges for Shanghai and LME copper are provided [9]. Aluminum - **Market**: Aluminum prices declined. Domestic electrolytic aluminum inventory is relatively low, and demand is improving. The price is expected to be volatile, with reference price ranges provided [10]. Zinc - **Market**: Zinc prices declined. Zinc ore is in the seasonal inventory - building stage, and the market is in an oversupply situation. The price is expected to be in a low - level volatile pattern [11][12]. Lead - **Market**: Lead prices declined slightly. The supply of lead is expected to decrease marginally, and the price is expected to strengthen [13]. Nickel - **Market**: Nickel prices oscillated. The short - term macro - environment is positive, and the price is supported by various factors. It is recommended to go long on dips, with reference price ranges provided [14]. Tin - **Market**: Tin prices oscillated narrowly. Supply is tight due to slow复产 and planned maintenance, while demand is in the off - season. The price is expected to be volatile [15]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market**: The price of lithium carbonate contracts adjusted weakly, but the A - share lithium battery sector strengthened. Supply and demand are improving. It is recommended to pay attention to overseas raw material supply, with a reference price range provided [16]. Alumina - **Market**: Alumina prices declined. Supply and demand are in an oversupply situation, but the price decline space is limited. It is recommended to wait and see, with a reference price range provided [17]. Stainless Steel - **Market**: Stainless steel prices declined. The market is in a consolidation pattern due to factors such as the decline in nickel prices and weak demand [18]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market**: Cast aluminum alloy prices declined. The market is transitioning from the off - season to the peak season, and the price is expected to be high - level due to cost support and increased market activity [20][21]. Black Building Materials Steel - **Market**: Steel prices showed a volatile and slightly stronger trend but were under pressure. Demand is weak, and inventory is accumulating. If demand does not improve, prices may decline further [23][24]. Iron Ore - **Market**: Iron ore prices rose. Overseas shipments increased, and demand decreased. The price is expected to be volatile in the short term, and the focus is on the recovery of demand in the peak season [25][26]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass**: Prices are stable, and the market is generally stable. Supply is high, and inventory pressure is increasing. The price is expected to be weakly volatile in the short term and may follow the macro - environment in the long term [27]. - **Soda Ash**: Prices are stable, and inventory pressure is slightly increasing. The price is expected to be volatile in the short term and may gradually rise in the long term, but the upward space is limited [28]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market**: Manganese silicon and ferrosilicon prices declined. The "anti - involution" sentiment has faded, and prices are moving towards fundamentals. Manganese silicon may remain weak, and ferrosilicon depends on downstream demand. It is recommended to wait and see for speculative trading [29][30][31]. Industrial Silicon - **Market**: Industrial silicon prices rose slightly. Supply is increasing, and demand is insufficient. The price is expected to be weakly volatile, with a reference price range provided [32][33]. Polysilicon - **Market**: Polysilicon prices rose slightly. The market is in a "weak reality, strong expectation" pattern. The price is expected to be highly volatile, and it may rise further if positive news emerges [34][35]. Energy and Chemicals Rubber - **Market**: Rubber prices oscillated strongly. The price is affected by weather and supply - demand expectations. It is recommended to have a long - term bullish view and a short - term bullish strategy, with specific trading suggestions provided [37][40]. Crude Oil - **Market**: Crude oil and related product prices declined. Although the geopolitical premium has disappeared and the macro - environment is bearish, the price is undervalued, and it is a good time for left - hand side layout [41]. Methanol - **Market**: Methanol prices declined. Supply is in an oversupply situation, but the downward space is limited due to potential factors. It is recommended to wait and see [42]. Urea - **Market**: Urea prices were stable. Supply pressure has eased, but demand is weak. The price is expected to be in a range, and it is recommended to consider long positions on dips [43]. Styrene - **Market**: Styrene spot prices rose, and futures prices declined. The BZN spread is expected to repair, and the price may rebound after the inventory - reduction inflection point [44]. PVC - **Market**: PVC prices rose slightly. Supply is strong, demand is weak, and the export outlook is weak. It is recommended to consider short positions [46]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market**: Ethylene glycol prices rose. Supply is still in an oversupply situation, and the port inventory is expected to increase in the medium term. The price may decline in the medium term [47]. PTA - **Market**: PTA prices declined. Supply has changed from inventory - building to inventory - reduction, and demand is improving. It is recommended to consider long positions on dips following PX [48][49]. Para - Xylene - **Market**: Para - xylene prices declined. The load is high, and the price is supported by low inventory and improving downstream data. It is recommended to consider long positions on dips following crude oil [50]. Polyethylene - **Market**: Polyethylene prices declined. Supply is limited, and demand may increase in the peak season. The price is expected to oscillate upward [51]. Polypropylene - **Market**: Polypropylene prices declined. Supply pressure is high, and demand is in a seasonal rebound. The market has no prominent contradictions in the short term [52]. Agricultural Products Live Pigs - **Market**: Pig prices generally declined. Supply is expected to be weak in September, but demand and other factors may support the price. It is recommended to wait and see and consider far - month reverse spreads [56]. Eggs - **Market**: Egg prices were stable or rose. Supply is stable, and demand is increasing due to festival stocking. The price is expected to be easy to rise and difficult to fall in the short term, but there may be pressure in the medium term [57]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - **Market**: US soybeans rose slightly, and domestic soybean meal prices rebounded. The supply of global protein raw materials is in an oversupply situation, and the price is expected to be in a range. It is recommended to consider long positions on dips at the low - cost range [58][59]. Oils and Fats - **Market**: Oils and fats oscillated. Palm oil exports in Malaysia increased, and production decreased. The price is supported by various factors and is expected to be strongly volatile. It is recommended to be bullish on palm oil in the fourth quarter [60][61]. Sugar - **Market**: Sugar prices declined. Domestic sugar imports increased, and there is an expectation of increased production in Guangxi. The long - term view is bearish, and the price trend depends on the international market [62][64]. Cotton - **Market**: Cotton prices oscillated. Global cotton production and inventory are expected to decline. The price is expected to be volatile at a high level in the short term due to potential improvement in fundamentals [65][66].