Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - In 2026, the decline in soda ash prices is mainly due to the continuous intensification of supply - demand imbalance. In the short term, the oversupply pattern is difficult to reverse, and prices may continue to oscillate weakly [3][4]. - For A - shares, the three major indices opened lower and closed lower, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing with a small negative line. The market is expected to continue to oscillate at a high level [8][9]. - For gold, the external gold price rose and then fell, and Shanghai gold adjusted accordingly. This adjustment is still benign, and it is advisable to buy on dips [12]. - For iron ore, the supply may be affected by long - term agreements and accidents in the short term, but there is an expectation of loose supply in the long term. The terminal situation has not improved after the holiday, and high - selling and low - buying operations are recommended [15][16]. - For glass, the daily melting volume has little change, and inventory has accumulated during the holiday. The subsequent driving forces mainly lie in policy - end stimulus and anti - involution policies. Attention should be paid to the support near the integer mark [21]. - For soybean oil, affected by the strong rebound of external oils and fats during the holiday, the domestic oil market will have a catch - up increase after the holiday. Soybean oil is expected to oscillate and rebound following palm oil [23]. - For pulp, the price in Shandong remains stable. The export volume of major pulp - exporting countries has increased, and domestic port inventory remains high. It is recommended to short on rebounds [26]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Soda Ash - Supply: The 2.8 - million - ton natural soda ash production capacity of Yuangxing Energy, the 700,000 - ton combined soda ash production capacity of Yuntu Yingcheng Xindu have been gradually released, and the 2 - million - ton production capacity of Hubei Jinjiang New Materials will be put into operation at the end of the year. The total new production capacity in the year reaches 5.5 million tons, and the total production capacity is approaching 47 million tons, with a year - on - year output increase of over 10%. As of October 9, 2025, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers is 1.6598 million tons, a 3.74% increase from before the holiday [3]. - Demand: The demand for heavy soda ash is dragged down by the continuous decline in the demand for flat glass and the limited increase in soda ash consumption of photovoltaic glass. Although the demand for light soda ash is growing, the growth rate of its diverse downstream industries is limited, and the annual supply - demand gap of 4.5 million tons in the domestic market is difficult to digest [3]. A - shares - Market performance: The three major A - share indices opened lower and closed lower, with the Shanghai Composite Index almost turning positive in the morning but being suppressed by the continuous decline of the ChiNext and STAR Markets [9]. - Influencing factors: China's implementation of export controls on relevant items such as rare earths, super - hard materials, and lithium batteries, and the continuous farce of the US government shutdown [8]. - Market forecast: The market is expected to continue to oscillate at a high level [8]. Gold - Market performance: The external gold price rose and then fell, and Shanghai gold adjusted accordingly [12]. - Operation suggestion: This adjustment is still benign. As long as it does not break below the 5 - day moving average, it is considered strong, and it is advisable to buy on dips [12]. Iron Ore - Supply: In the short term, supply is affected by long - term agreement negotiations and accidents. In the long term, with the commissioning of the Simandou project, there is an expectation of loose supply [16]. - Demand: The terminal situation has not improved after the holiday, and molten iron production may decline periodically [15]. - Operation suggestion: The price is in a high - level wide - range oscillation range, and high - selling and low - buying operations are recommended [15]. Glass - Supply and inventory: The daily melting volume has little change, and inventory has accumulated during the holiday [21]. - Driving forces: The subsequent driving forces mainly lie in policy - end stimulus and anti - involution policies [21]. - Technical analysis: The price rose and then fell today, and attention should be paid to the support near the integer mark [21]. Soybean Oil - Market influence: Affected by the strong rebound of external oils and fats during the holiday, the domestic oil market will have a catch - up increase after the holiday [23]. - Market trend: Indonesia's B50 plan will squeeze the export share of palm oil, increasing the premium of palm oil over soybean oil. The demand substitution effect between oils and fats is strong, and soybean oil is expected to oscillate and rebound following palm oil [23]. Pulp - Market performance: The pulp price in Shandong remains stable. The export volume of Brazilian pulp in September increased by 10% year - on - year, and domestic port inventory remains high. The "Golden September" peak season is not prosperous, and the pulp price oscillated and declined [26]. - Operation suggestion: It is recommended to short on rebounds [26].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The macro situation is bearish, and the fundamentals of soda ash are weak. In the short term, it is expected to mainly fluctuate weakly [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Daily View - **Fundamentals**: Sino-US trade frictions may intensify; the maintenance volume of soda ash plants is lower than expected, and the second phase of Yuangxing is expected to be put into production before the end of the year. The overall supply is at a high level. The supply of downstream float glass is highly volatile, and the daily melting volume of photovoltaic glass continues to decline. The inventory of soda ash plants is at a historical high for the same period, which is bearish [2]. - **Basis**: The spot price of heavy soda ash in Shahe, Hebei is 1,150 yuan/ton, the closing price of SA2601 is 1,240 yuan/ton, and the basis is -90 yuan. The futures price is higher than the spot price, which is bearish [2]. - **Inventory**: The national soda ash plant inventory is 1.6598 million tons, an increase of 0.50% from the previous week, and the inventory is running above the 5-year average, which is bearish [2]. - **Disk**: The price is running below the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is downward, which is bearish [2]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net short, and the short position increases, which is bearish [2]. - **Expectation**: The macro situation is bearish, and the fundamentals of soda ash are weak. In the short term, it is expected to mainly fluctuate weakly [2]. 3.2 Influencing Factors Summary - **Bullish Factors**: During the peak maintenance period this year, the production is expected to decline [3]. - **Bearish Factors**: The main logic is that the supply of soda ash is at a high level, the terminal demand is declining, the inventory is at a high level for the same period, and the mismatch between supply and demand in the industry has not been effectively improved. The risk points are that the cold repair of downstream float and photovoltaic glass is lower than expected, and the macro利好 is higher than expected [4]. 3.3 Soda Ash Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract is 1,240 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.80% from the previous value. The low-end price of heavy soda ash in Shahe is 1,150 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.29% from the previous value. The main basis is -90 yuan, an increase of 5.88% from the previous value [6]. 3.4 Soda Ash Spot Market - The low-end price of heavy soda ash in the Shahe market in Hebei is 1,150 yuan/ton, a decrease of 15 yuan/ton from the previous day [11]. 3.5 Fundamental Analysis - Supply - **Production Profit**: The profit of heavy soda ash by the ammonia-alkali method in North China is -89.25 yuan/ton, and the profit by the co-production method in East China is -114.50 yuan/ton. The production profit of soda ash has rebounded from a historical low [14]. - **Operating Rate and Production Capacity**: The weekly operating rate of the soda ash industry is 88.41%. The weekly production of soda ash is 770,800 tons, including 428,700 tons of heavy soda ash, and the production is at a historical high [17][19]. - **Production Capacity Changes**: From 2023 to 2025, there has been a significant expansion of soda ash production capacity, with large-scale production plans each year. The total planned production capacity in 2023 is 6.4 million tons, 1.8 million tons in 2024, and 7.5 million tons in 2025, with an actual production of 1 million tons [21]. 3.6 Fundamental Analysis - Demand - **Production and Sales Rate**: The weekly production and sales rate of soda ash is 92.23% [24]. - **Downstream Demand**: The daily melting volume of national float glass is 161,300 tons, and the operating rate is stable at 76.01%. The demand for soda ash from the downstream photovoltaic glass has weakened [27][5]. 3.7 Fundamental Analysis - Inventory - The national soda ash plant inventory is 1.6598 million tons, an increase of 0.50% from the previous week, and the inventory is running above the 5-year average [34]. 3.8 Fundamental Analysis - Supply and Demand Balance Sheet - The supply and demand balance sheet from 2017 to 2024E shows that the production capacity, production, import, export, and other data of soda ash have changed over the years, and the supply and demand gap also varies [35].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Glass: Oscillating weakly [3] - Soda Ash: Oscillating weakly [3] Core Viewpoints - The glass and soda ash markets are both in a state of cautious waiting and oscillating weakly. The fundamentals of both are under pressure, with supply and demand contradictions remaining prominent. Attention should be paid to policy changes, supply dynamics, and downstream demand [1][2][3] Summary by Directory Market Analysis - Glass - Price: The glass main contract 2601 oscillated weakly, closing at 1,207 yuan/ton on Friday. The weekly average price of the domestic float glass market was 1,263 yuan/ton, a week-on-week increase of 85.17 yuan/ton [1][5] - Supply: Glass capacity utilization and output increased slightly, and the post-holiday supply was relatively stable [1] - Demand: The float glass market is in the traditional peak season, with stable shipments. After the holiday, the market is cautious, and purchases are mainly based on rigid demand [1] - Inventory: The total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 62.82 million heavy boxes, showing a significant increase. Continued attention should be paid to the inventory situation in October [1][33] - Supply and Demand Logic: Glass production is stable, and some production lines have been ignited. It is expected that production will continue to increase. The production and sales data weakened significantly during the holiday, and although there was a certain increase after the holiday, the overall situation remains weak. The glass price is at a relatively low level and is greatly affected by policies, but the weak fundamentals still strongly suppress the price [1] Market Analysis - Soda Ash - Price: The soda ash main contract 2601 oscillated weakly, closing at 1,240 yuan/ton on Friday. Some spot prices were lowered, and the spot-futures trading was good [1][5] - Supply: This week, the soda ash capacity utilization rate was 88.41%, a week-on-week decrease of 0.76%. The output was 770,800 tons, a week-on-week decrease of 0.85%. Some enterprises had short shutdowns during the holiday, resulting in a decrease in supply [2][29] - Demand: Demand is relatively stable. With the decline in spot and futures prices, market transactions have increased, but overall supply-demand contradictions still exist [2][31] - Inventory: This week, the inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 1.6598 million tons, a 3.74% increase from before the holiday, indicating inventory accumulation [2][33] - Supply and Demand Logic: The supply-demand contradiction in soda ash remains severe. The second phase of Yuanxing's project was successfully ignited, and the subsequent supply pressure of soda ash will further increase. Demand is still weak due to the decline in photovoltaic glass and float glass. In the short term, soda ash will maintain a weak operation [2] Strategy - Glass: Oscillating weakly [3] - Soda Ash: Oscillating weakly [3] - Cross-variety: None [3] - Cross-period: None [3]

Report Date - The report is dated October 10, 2025 [1] Steel Industry Core View - Yesterday's upward movement in the steel futures market was a rebound driven by events and macro - optimistic sentiment, lacking fundamental support. With the core supply - demand contradiction unresolved, upward resistance is significant, and the market is expected to remain under pressure, but the impact of favorable macro - policies should be watched [3] Price Data - **Futures Prices**: On October 10, 2025, the closing price of the rebar 01 contract was 3103 yuan/ton, up from 3096 yuan/ton on October 9; the hot - rolled coil 01 contract closed at 3285 yuan/ton, down slightly from 3286 yuan/ton on October 9 [4] - **Spot Prices**: The aggregated rebar price in China on October 10 was 3262 yuan/ton, up from 3257 yuan/ton on October 9; the hot - rolled coil price in Shanghai remained at 3350 yuan/ton [7][9] - **Spread Data**: The rebar 01 - 05 month spread on October 10 was - 56 yuan/ton, up from - 63 yuan/ton on October 9; the hot - rolled coil 01 - 05 month spread remained at - 7 yuan/ton [4] Iron Ore Industry Core View - With the seasonal recovery of terminal demand, marginal improvement in fundamentals, and continuous supply - side disturbances, iron ore prices are expected to show an "easily rising and hard - falling" trend in the short term [19] Price Data - **Futures Prices**: On October 10, 2025, the closing price of the iron ore 01 contract was 795 yuan/ton, up 4.5 yuan from the previous day [20] - **Spot Prices**: The price of Rizhao PB powder on October 10 was 789 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan from the previous day [20] Fundamental Data - The daily average pig iron output on October 10 was 241.54 tons, down 0.27 tons from the previous week; the 45 - port ore handling volume was 327 tons, down 9.4 tons from the previous week [23] Coking Coal and Coke Industry Core View - In the fourth quarter, domestic coking coal mine production is restricted by policies. The winter storage this year is expected to be better than last year, providing phased support for coking coal and coke prices. However, the rebound height and sustainability of prices depend on the supply - demand balance of downstream steel [29] Price Data - **Futures Prices**: The coking coal 01 - 05 month spread on October 10 was - 98 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan from the previous day; the coke 01 - 05 month spread was - 152.5 yuan/ton, up 2.5 yuan from the previous day [33] - **Spot Prices**: The ex - factory price of Anze low - sulfur coking coal on October 10 was 1530 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [34] Ferroalloy Industry Core View - The supply of ferroalloys is at a high level in the past five - year historical period, while demand has not improved significantly during the peak season. There is a prominent contradiction between high supply and weak demand. Cost factors and capital outflows also affect prices [43] Price Data - **Silicon Iron**: On October 10, 2025, the silicon iron basis in Ningxia was 94 yuan/ton, up 36 yuan from the previous day [44] - **Silicon Manganese**: The silicon manganese basis in Inner Mongolia on October 10 was 270 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan from the previous day [48] Soda Ash Industry Core View - Market sentiment fluctuations increase soda ash price volatility. With the second - phase ignition of Yuanxing, future supply pressure persists. The supply - demand pattern remains one of strong supply and weak demand, although exports have alleviated some domestic pressure [57] Price Data - **Futures Prices**: On October 10, 2025, the soda ash 05 contract closed at 1332 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan from the previous day [58] - **Spot Prices**: The heavy - soda market price in North China on October 10 was 1300 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [61] Glass Industry Core View - High inventory in the upstream and mid - stream and weak real - world demand limit glass prices. The supply - demand pattern in the near - term is one of strong supply and weak demand. Attention should be paid to supply, cost, and inventory factors [85] Price Data - **Futures Prices**: On October 10, 2025, the glass 05 contract closed at 1334 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan from the previous day [86] - **Spot Prices**: The basis of the glass 05 contract in Shahe on October 10 was - 99 yuan/ton, up 10.8 yuan from the previous day [86]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Glass: Oscillating weakly [2] - Soda Ash: Oscillating weakly [2] - Silicomanganese: Oscillating [4] - Ferrosilicon: Oscillating [4] Core Views - The market's weak reality persists, and steel prices are oscillating. The glass and soda ash markets have a strong wait - and - see sentiment, with prices oscillating. The dual - silicon market has high finished product inventories, and alloy prices are oscillating weakly [1][3] Summary by Related Catalogs Glass and Soda Ash Market Analysis - Glass: Yesterday, glass futures oscillated with large intraday fluctuations and active trading. The main 2601 contract fell 0.98% at the close. Spot market quotes were generally stable, but trading sentiment weakened. Domestic strong policy expectations intermittently boosted low - valued commodity prices, disturbing the market. Currently, glass production is generally stable, and overall rigid demand has limited changes. The weak fundamentals still strongly suppress prices, and policy changes and glass supply should be continuously monitored [1] - Soda Ash: Yesterday, soda ash futures oscillated weakly with active trading. The main 2601 contract fell 1.73% at the close, and all contracts declined to varying degrees. In the spot market, some heavy - soda quotes were lowered, and the spot - futures trading situation was good. Domestic strong policy expectations intermittently boosted low - valued commodity prices, disturbing the market. The supply - demand contradiction of soda ash remains, and the subsequent supply pressure will further increase. The spot - futures price premium stimulates spot - futures purchases, strongly suppressing near - term prices. Supply changes and downstream demand should be continuously monitored [1] Strategy - Glass: Oscillating weakly [2] - Soda Ash: Oscillating weakly [2] Dual - Silicon (Silicomanganese and Ferrosilicon) Market Analysis - Silicomanganese: Since the National Day holiday, the inventory accumulation of steel products, mainly building materials, has exceeded market expectations. Although there was a rebound in the afternoon affected by coking coal, the rebound was still weak. The main contract closed at 5768 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. In the spot market, the silicomanganese market oscillated. After the holiday, the market was stable with a strong wait - and - see sentiment. The price of 6517 in the northern market was 5620 - 5670 yuan/ton, and in the southern market, it was 5650 - 5700 yuan/ton. Overall, silicomanganese production remained high and stable, and downstream demand for silicomanganese was resilient. There was still support for silicomanganese prices after the holiday. In the long term, the supply - demand of the silicomanganese industry is relatively loose, and prices are expected to fluctuate with the sector. Changes in manganese ore cost support and regional policies should be monitored [3] - Ferrosilicon: Yesterday, ferrosilicon futures showed a weak downward trend. The main contract closed at 5472 yuan/ton, down 22 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. In the spot market, market sentiment worsened, and the trading atmosphere needed to be strengthened. The cash - inclusive ex - factory price of 72 - grade ferrosilicon in the main production areas was 5150 - 5200 yuan/ton, and the price of 75 - grade ferrosilicon was 5800 - 6100 yuan/ton. Overall, ferrosilicon production in September remained high, but with continuous profit compression, pre - holiday sentiment declined, and the improvement in ferrosilicon demand during the traditional peak season was limited. Prices are expected to fluctuate with the sector, and cost support, electricity price changes, and industrial policies should be monitored [3] Strategy - Silicomanganese: Oscillating [4] - Ferrosilicon: Oscillating [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The steel market shows a weak reality in the short - term, but the market's expectation for the recovery of steel demand is rising with the macro - environment turning loose. Steel prices still have a downward risk from the fundamental perspective, and policy signals and the Fourth Plenary Session trends need to be focused on [2]. - For iron ore, short - term iron ore prices may adjust if the finished steel situation weakens after the holiday. Attention should be paid to the "Silver October" performance after restocking [5]. - The black - building materials sector may first decline and then rise, similar to the situation in 2023. The market is expected to be driven by policies, and the black - building materials sector may gradually have the cost - effectiveness of long - position allocation in the long - term [10]. - Industrial silicon is expected to be mainly volatile in the short - term, and attention should be paid to the improvement of the supply - demand structure after the holiday [15]. - For polysilicon, the price may be supported if leading enterprises carry out maintenance in November, and attention should be paid to policy changes [17]. - Glass is recommended to be viewed more positively in the short - term, and attention should be paid to policy trends. Soda ash is expected to continue the volatile consolidation pattern in the short - term [20][22]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel Market Quotes - The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3096 yuan/ton, up 24 yuan/ton (0.781%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts decreased by 10110 tons, and the main contract positions increased by 34297 lots. The spot prices in Tianjin and Shanghai increased by 10 yuan/ton [1]. - The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3286 yuan/ton, up 33 yuan/ton (1.014%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts remained unchanged, and the main contract positions increased by 24718 lots. The spot prices in Lecong and Shanghai increased by 10 - 20 yuan/ton [1]. Strategy Views - The steel showed a volatile and stronger trend. The real demand during the holiday was weak, but the market's expectation for demand recovery is rising. The steel price has a downward risk, and policy signals and the Fourth Plenary Session trends need attention [2]. Iron Ore Market Quotes - The main contract (I2601) of iron ore closed at 790.50 yuan/ton, up 1.28% (+10.00). The positions increased by 12200 lots to 45.96 lots. The weighted positions were 75.65 lots. The spot price of PB powder at Qingdao Port was 784 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 42.94 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 5.15% [4]. Strategy Views - During the holiday, steel mill production was stable, and overseas ore shipments were stable. The short - term iron ore price may adjust if the finished steel situation weakens. Attention should be paid to the "Silver October" performance after restocking [5]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon Market Quotes - Manganese silicon (SM601 contract) closed up 0.17% at 5768 yuan/ton. The spot price in Tianjin was 5670 yuan/ton, with a basis of 92 yuan/ton. Ferrosilicon (SF511 contract) closed down 0.40% at 5472 yuan/ton. The spot price in Tianjin was 5700 yuan/ton, with a basis of 228 yuan/ton [9]. Strategy Views - The black - building materials sector may first decline and then rise. Manganese silicon may be driven by manganese ore disturbances if the black - building materials sector strengthens. Ferrosilicon is likely to follow the black - building materials sector with low operation cost - effectiveness [10][11]. Industrial Silicon Market Quotes - The main contract (SI2511) of industrial silicon closed at 8640 yuan/ton, with no change. The weighted positions increased by 8057 lots to 407790 lots. The spot prices of different grades remained unchanged, with bases of 660 yuan/ton and 260 yuan/ton respectively [13]. Strategy Views - Industrial silicon is expected to be mainly volatile in the short - term. If production cuts occur in the southwest during the dry season and demand remains stable, the far - month contract valuation may increase. Attention should be paid to the improvement of the supply - demand structure after the holiday [14][15]. Polysilicon Market Quotes - The main contract (PS2511) of polysilicon closed at 50765 yuan/ton, down 1.16% (-595). The weighted positions increased by 7663 lots to 234012 lots. The spot prices of different grades remained unchanged, with a basis of 1785 yuan/ton [16]. Strategy Views - The current polysilicon price lacks upward drive. If leading enterprises carry out maintenance in November, the fundamentals may improve, and attention should be paid to policy changes [17]. Glass and Soda Ash Market Quotes - Glass: The main contract closed at 1218 yuan/ton, up 0.66% (+8). The inventory increased by 346.9 million boxes (+5.84%). The long positions of the top 20 increased by 91284 lots, and the short positions increased by 131962 lots [19]. - Soda ash: The main contract closed at 1250 yuan/ton, down 0.40% (-5). The inventory decreased by 10.41 million tons. The long positions of the top 20 increased by 41693 lots, and the short positions increased by 27467 lots [21]. Strategy Views - Glass: The terminal demand is weak. It is recommended to view it more positively in the short - term and pay attention to policy trends [20]. - Soda ash: The domestic soda ash market is generally stable. It is expected to continue the volatile consolidation pattern in the short - term [22].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The overall mid - term outlook for the black building materials sector is "oscillation" [6]. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In October, the poor industry demand and the maintenance of high molten iron levels continue to lead the prices of black building materials sector varieties to oscillate. Considering the limited changes in fundamentals and the increasing domestic and foreign macro and policy expectations, attention should be paid to the subsequent internal and external policy disturbances [6]. Summary by Variety Steel - **Logic**: Cost is strong, and there are still positive signals from the policy end, leading to a slight increase in the futures market. The spot market transactions are average, with some post - holiday demand release. The blast furnace profit is average, and the molten iron output remains high. The electric furnace profit has slightly improved, and the production resumption enthusiasm of electric furnace steel mills has increased. The inventory of the five major steel products has accumulated significantly, and the inventory accumulation speed during the holiday is faster than in previous years, putting pressure on the fundamentals [7]. - **Outlook**: The rapid inventory accumulation of steel during the holiday has put pressure on the fundamentals. However, the molten iron output is at a relatively high level, there are continuous disturbances on the supply side of furnace materials, and the cost support is strong. The macro - environment is warm, and it is expected that the futures market will have strong support below in the short term [7]. Iron Ore - **Logic**: Overseas mine shipments have decreased slightly, and the arrival volume at 45 ports has increased, with overall stable supply. The average daily output of molten iron has slightly decreased, but it is still at a high level, providing rigid demand support. The steel mill inventory has decreased significantly during the holiday, and some steel mills have restocking plans after the holiday, leading to a significant recovery in spot transactions. The port inventory has increased slightly, and the overall inventory pressure is not prominent [8]. - **Outlook**: The demand for iron ore is supported at a high level, and the supply is generally stable. There are still macro - expectations disturbances before important meetings, but the general performance of the building materials peak season demand restricts the upward space of iron ore. It is expected that the short - term price will oscillate [8]. Scrap Steel - **Logic**: After the holiday, the arrival volume of scrap steel at steel mills is low, and the daily consumption has decreased. The price of finished products is under pressure, and the electric furnace profit is poor. The steel enterprises mainly consume inventory during the holiday, and the inventory has decreased slightly [9]. - **Outlook**: The supply and demand of scrap steel have both decreased, and the price has slightly declined on the first day after the holiday. The scrap steel's own fundamental driving force is insufficient, and it is expected that the short - term price will follow the finished products [9]. Coke - **Logic**: On the futures side, funds flowed out before the holiday, and the market rebounded after the holiday. On the spot side, the quotation has decreased. The loss of coke enterprises has slightly improved, but the high raw coal price restricts the overall start - up of coke enterprises, and the supply has slightly decreased. The blast furnace maintenance of steel mills has increased, and the molten iron output has slightly decreased but is still at a high level, providing rigid demand support. The steel mills have completed restocking and are purchasing on demand, and the upstream inventory is still at a low level [11]. - **Outlook**: In the short term after the holiday, the molten iron output will remain high, providing rigid demand support. The coking profit has slightly improved but still restricts the supply increase. The fundamentals are healthy in the short term. With the strengthening of macro - positive expectations, it is expected that the coke price will remain stable in the future [11]. Coking Coal - **Logic**: On the futures side, there were many positive news on the first day after the holiday, and the market sentiment was warm. On the spot side, the price remained unchanged. The supply of some domestic mines decreased during the holiday, and the import of Mongolian coal was restricted during the holiday but is expected to increase in the future. The demand for coking coal is still supported by the high - level coke production, and the upstream inventory is at a low level [11]. - **Outlook**: After the holiday, coal mine production will recover quickly, and the import of Mongolian coal is expected to reach a high level, with a strong expectation of supply increase. However, the supply increase will be restricted by factors such as "anti - involution" and safety supervision. The demand for coking coal is still supported by the high - level coke production in the short term. The macro - environment is warm, and it is expected that the price will oscillate in the future [12]. Glass - **Logic**: The national average price has increased slightly. The "anti - involution" expectation still has an impact, and the macro - environment is neutral to strong. The "Stability and Growth Plan for the Building Materials Industry" will optimize the supply of float glass in the long term. The demand is in the peak season, but the mid - stream inventory is large, and the downstream inventory is neutral, with limited restocking ability. There are concerns about supply disturbances in the Shahe area, and the inventory has accumulated significantly during the National Day. If the supply disturbance expectation does not materialize, the price may be under pressure again [12]. - **Outlook**: A large amount of inventory has accumulated during the National Day. After the holiday, manufacturers try to raise prices to boost restocking sentiment. If the post - holiday production and sales are good and the spot price increase is implemented, the futures market will have room for a certain rebound. Otherwise, the fundamentals may suppress the futures and spot prices again. In the long - term, market - oriented capacity reduction is still needed, and if the price returns to fundamental trading, it is expected to oscillate downward [13]. Soda Ash - **Logic**: The price of heavy soda ash has decreased. The "anti - involution" expectation still has an impact, and the macro - environment is neutral to strong. The production capacity has not been cleared, and there is long - term suppression. The output has decreased due to some manufacturers' sudden maintenance. The demand for heavy soda ash is expected to maintain rigid procurement, and the demand for light soda ash has increased. The market transaction was weak during the National Day, and the supply - demand fundamentals have not changed significantly. It is expected that the upstream inventory will increase this week, and the industry is still in the stage of capacity clearance at the bottom of the cycle, with the price expected to oscillate weakly [16]. - **Outlook**: The oversupply pattern has not changed. It is expected that the price will oscillate widely following macro - changes in the future. In the long - term, the price center will continue to decline to promote capacity reduction [16]. Manganese Silicon - **Logic**: After the holiday, the black sector was strong, but the manganese silicon futures market oscillated due to weak fundamentals. The spot market sentiment was cautious, and the price remained stable. The manganese ore market inquiry was cold, and the port inventory has accumulated during the holiday. The manganese silicon manufacturers' profit is poor, and there is a sentiment of price - pressing procurement. The steel mills' demand for manganese silicon is still resilient, but the market supply pressure is gradually increasing, and the future inventory clearance will be more difficult [17]. - **Outlook**: In the short term, the cost and peak - season demand support the price, but the market supply - demand expectation is pessimistic. After the peak season, the price center of manganese silicon still has downward space. Attention should be paid to the reduction range of raw material costs [17]. Ferrosilicon - **Logic**: The prices of black chain varieties were strong, but the ferrosilicon futures market was weak due to the reduction of the settlement electricity price in the main production areas in September. The spot market transaction atmosphere was average, and the manufacturers' quotations were gradually loosening. The ferrosilicon production remains at a high level, and the market supply pressure is gradually increasing. The demand from steel mills is still supported, but the demand for magnesium ingots is weak, suppressing the price [18]. - **Outlook**: In the short term, the peak - season demand and cost support the ferrosilicon price, but the market supply - demand relationship is becoming looser. After the peak season, the price still has downward pressure. Attention should be paid to the reduction of electricity costs in the main production areas [18].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The fundamental situation of soda ash is weak, and it is expected to mainly fluctuate weakly in the short term [3]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Daily View - The maintenance volume of soda ash plants is lower than expected, and the second - phase of Yuangxing is expected to be put into production before the end of the year. The overall supply is at a high level. The supply of downstream float glass is subject to many disturbances, the daily melting volume of photovoltaic glass continues to decline, and the terminal demand is average. The inventory of soda ash plants is at a historically high level for the same period. The basis shows that the futures price is higher than the spot price. The inventory is above the 5 - year average, the price is below the 20 - day line which is downward, the main position is net short with a reduction in short positions. All these factors are bearish [3]. 2. Influencing Factors Summary - **Likely to rise**: During the peak maintenance period this year, the production is expected to decline [4]. - **Likely to fall**: The main logic is that the supply of soda ash is at a high level, the terminal demand is declining, the inventory is at a high level for the same period, and the mismatch between supply and demand in the industry has not been effectively improved. The risk points are that the cold - repair of downstream float and photovoltaic glass is lower than expected, and the macro - level benefits exceed expectations [5]. 3. Soda Ash Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract is 1250 yuan/ton, the low - end price of heavy - quality soda ash in Shahe is 1165 yuan/ton, and the main basis is - 85 yuan. The closing price of the main contract has decreased by 0.40%, and the low - end price of heavy - quality soda ash in Shahe has decreased by 0.43% [7]. 4. Soda Ash Spot Market - The low - end price of heavy - quality soda ash in Hebei Shahe is 1165 yuan/ton, which has decreased by 5 yuan/ton compared with the previous day [14]. 5. Production Profit of Soda Ash - The profit of the North China ammonia - soda process for heavy - quality soda ash is - 97.20 yuan/ton, and the profit of the East China co - production process is - 115.50 yuan/ton. The production profit of soda ash has rebounded from a historically low level [17]. 6. Operating Rate, Production Capacity and Output of Soda Ash - The weekly industrial operating rate of soda ash is 89.12%. The weekly output of soda ash is 77.69 tons, among which the output of heavy - quality soda ash is 43.01 tons, at a historically high level [20][23]. 7. Changes in Soda Ash Industry Production Capacity - From 2023 to 2025, multiple enterprises have newly added production capacity plans. In 2023, the newly added production capacity was 640 tons; in 2024, it was 180 tons; in 2025, the planned newly added production capacity was 750 tons, with an actual production of 100 tons [24]. 8. Fundamental Analysis - Demand - **Sales - to - production ratio**: The weekly sales - to - production ratio of soda ash is 113.40% [27]. - **Downstream demand**: The daily melting volume of national float glass is 16.02 tons, and the operating rate is 76.01% and stable [30]. 9. Fundamental Analysis - Inventory - The inventory of national soda ash plants is 165.98 tons, an increase of 0.50% compared with the previous week, and the inventory is above the 5 - year average [37]. 10. Fundamental Analysis - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The supply - demand balance sheet from 2017 to 2024E shows the changes in effective production capacity, output, operating rate, import, export, net import, apparent supply, total demand, supply - demand difference, production capacity growth rate, output growth rate, apparent supply growth rate and total demand growth rate of soda ash [38].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Urea: ★★★ (more bullish) [1] - Methanol: ★★★ (more bullish) [1] - Pure Benzene: ★★★ (more bullish) [1] - Styrene: ★★★ (more bullish) [1] - Propylene: ★★★ (more bullish) [1] - Plastics: ★★★ (more bullish) [1] - PVC: ★★★ (more bullish) [1] - Caustic Soda: ★★★ (more bullish) [1] - PX: ★★★ (more bullish) [1] - PTA: ★★★ (more bullish) [1] - Ethylene Glycol: ★★★ (more bullish) [1] - Short - fiber: ★★★ (more bullish) [1] - Glass: ★★★ (more bullish) [1] - Soda Ash: ★★★ (more bullish) [1] - Bottle Chip: ★★★ (more bullish) [1] 2. Core Views - The chemical market shows complex trends with different product performances. Some products are affected by factors such as device maintenance, demand changes, and supply - demand imbalances [2][3][5]. - There are differences in the performance of the spot and futures markets, and the basis has changed in some products [2][3]. - The supply - demand relationship is a key factor affecting prices, with some products facing supply - demand contradictions [2][3][5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Olefins - Polyolefins - Propylene prices continued to rise due to early - started planned maintenance of a device in Dongying during the National Day holiday and the gradual recovery of some downstream demand. However, the futures price fell on the first trading day after the holiday, resulting in a divergence between the spot and futures markets and an enlarged basis [2]. - Polyolefins faced a situation of weak peak - season demand, mainly with rigid procurement. The large - scale release of new production capacity led to a significant increase in domestic output, resulting in prominent supply - demand contradictions. There was inventory accumulation during the holidays, and there was obvious pressure to reduce inventory after the holidays, causing price pressure [2] Pure Benzene - Styrene - During the National Day, the oil price dropped, and the pure benzene futures once fell below 5700 yuan/ton in the morning session and then rebounded with the oil price in the afternoon. The spot price in East China was weak, the shipment in Shandong was dull, and Sinopec's listed price remained stable. The device operation rate continued to rise, and the port inventory decreased. However, high imports and expected demand decline continued to drag down the market [3]. - The main contract of styrene futures closed slightly lower, with the overall center of gravity moving down along the 5 - day moving average. The oil price during the holiday was basically the same as before the holiday, having limited impact on the cost of styrene. The demand was weak during the peak season, and the supply increased significantly due to the expansion of production capacity. The inventory of styrene has been significantly higher year - on - year since this year and has shown a trend of oscillating inventory accumulation after June, suppressing the price [3] Polyester - During the holiday, the overseas oil price dropped, causing the prices of PX and PTA to weaken in the morning and then recover with the rebound of the oil price in the afternoon. The operation rate of PX continued to increase. Hengli Dalian's PTA carried out maintenance, and some East China devices reduced their loads due to reasons. In the short term, PX was under pressure, and the PTA link repaired its profit. However, in the future, the PX of Wushi Petrochemical plans to carry out maintenance, and the polyester load is expected to remain stable. The near - term supply - demand pattern of upstream raw materials is okay, and attention should be paid to terminal orders and raw material restocking. In mid - to late October, the downstream demand is expected to gradually weaken, and the supply - demand situation will still be under pressure in the long - term [5]. - The domestic operation rate of ethylene glycol increased significantly, and the port inventory accumulated significantly during the holiday, with a weak fundamental situation. The main futures price once approached the 4100 yuan/ton mark. In the medium - term, with the mass production of new devices and the weakening of future demand, the supply - demand situation will gradually weaken in the fourth quarter, and the 1 - 5 spread is under downward pressure [5]. - The new production capacity of short - fiber is limited, and the operation rate is at a high level. The terminal weaving and dyeing industries increased their operation rates, and the recovery of peak - season demand boosted the short - fiber industry. It is recommended to be long in the short - term, and attention should be paid to downstream orders and short - fiber inventory [5]. - The operation rate of bottle chips increased, but after the long holiday, with the cooling weather, the demand is expected to weaken. Overcapacity is a long - term pressure, and the processing margin is under continuous pressure [5] Coal Chemical Industry - The methanol futures price dropped significantly. During the holiday, the import volume remained high, and the port inventory continued to accumulate. The capacity utilization rate of domestic methanol devices increased. Before the holiday, inland olefin enterprises carried out centralized external procurement, and enterprises had sufficient pending orders, but the order execution was slowed down due to logistics restrictions, and the inventory of production enterprises increased slightly. Imports are expected to remain sufficient, and the port is expected to continue to accumulate inventory. The near - term situation is weak, while the far - month outlook is relatively strong. Attention should be paid to factors such as macro - sentiment and overseas device changes [6]. - During the National Day holiday, urea production enterprises significantly accumulated inventory, with high supply and great pressure on enterprise shipments. Affected by factors such as weather and logistics, the downstream demand was insufficient. Export orders were being shipped, and the port inventory decreased. Although India issued a new round of urea tenders, planning to import 2 million tons, the export window period may have ended, and the short - term boost to the market is limited. The pattern of loose domestic supply - demand of urea is difficult to change, and attention should be paid to possible policy adjustments and their impact on market sentiment [6] Chlor - Alkali Industry - The main contract of PVC dropped. During the holiday, the downstream demand weakened, the supply was at a high level, and the inventory increased significantly. After the end of maintenance and the release of new production capacity, the supply pressure was high. The downstream's intention to stock up was not high, and the industry continued the inventory - accumulation mode. The chlor - alkali integration still had profits, and the cost support was not obvious. PVC may show a weak - oscillating trend [7]. - The caustic soda futures dropped significantly. There was still the phenomenon of vehicle detention by downstream buyers, and the purchase price may be further reduced, with the inventory increasing compared with the previous period. There are small - scale maintenance plans for caustic soda in North China and East China in October, and the supply is still under high - pressure operation due to remaining profits. The liquid - caustic soda inventory of alumina plants in Shanxi and Henan is high, and the downstream profit is shrinking, with resistance to high prices. The weak - reality pattern continues, but the strong expectation of possible restocking demand before the future downstream alumina production cannot be falsified. It is recommended to wait and see [7] Soda Ash - Glass - The price of soda ash futures was weakly operating. Before the holiday, the inventory was mainly reduced, and it increased after the holiday. The rigid demand for heavy soda was stable. The production capacity of float glass and photovoltaic glass has been stable recently. The inventory of the photovoltaic industry has changed from decreasing to increasing, and it is expected that the ignition speed will slow down in the future, with limited incremental rigid demand for heavy soda. There are few maintenance plans in October, and the industry currently has little operating pressure, with high - pressure supply. The long - term pattern of supply - demand surplus remains unchanged, and opportunities to short at high prices should be sought, but caution should be exercised near the cost [8]. - The price of glass futures fluctuated narrowly. During the holiday, downstream enterprises had holidays, and the production and sales were insufficient, with seasonal inventory accumulation in the industry. Some regions raised their quoted prices. The daily melting volume was oscillating at a relatively high level. The processing orders improved but were still insufficient on a month - on - month basis, and some engineering orders increased. The situation of whether Shahe will centrally use Zhengkang's deep - processed gas should be continuously tracked. If the production - capacity reduction does not actually occur, the market may return to weak - reality trading, but with the current low valuation, the decline is expected to be limited. A low - buying strategy near the cost can be considered in the future [8]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - Glass prices are likely to oscillate upwards due to a pattern of "slight supply contraction, reduced inventory pressure, and policy expectation support" after the holiday, but there is still a need to be vigilant against the risk of demand falling short of expectations. It is recommended to lay out long positions on the glass main contract at low levels in the short - term [2]. - For soda ash, with the potential commissioning of some Phase II facilities of Yuanxing Energy, the supply - surplus situation will intensify. Prices are under pressure in October due to the off - season of downstream demand and continuous supply growth. However, the downward momentum of prices has significantly weakened, and it is expected that soda ash may see production cuts, which could stimulate price recovery. It is recommended to lay out long positions on the soda ash main contract at low levels in the short - term [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Soda ash main contract closing price is 1,250 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan; glass main contract closing price is 1,218 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan. - Soda ash main contract open interest is 1,317,458 lots, up 67,092 lots; glass main contract open interest is 1,151,489 lots, up 160,754 lots. - Soda ash's top 20 net position is - 228,442 lots, up 11,845 lots; glass's top 20 net position is - 115,648 lots, down 31,026 lots. - Soda ash exchange warehouse receipts are 7,333 tons, up 981 tons; glass exchange warehouse receipts are 0 tons, unchanged. - Soda ash basis is - 65 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan; glass basis is - 62 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan. - The spread between January and May glass contracts is - 120 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan; the spread between January and May soda ash contracts is - 94 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - North China heavy soda ash is 1,190 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; Central China heavy soda ash is 1,300 yuan/ton, unchanged. - East China light soda ash is 1,250 yuan/ton, unchanged; Central China light soda ash is 1,215 yuan/ton, unchanged. - Shahe glass sheets are 1,156 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan; Central China glass sheets are 1,220 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.3 Industry Situation - Soda ash plant operating rate is 89.12% (weekly), up 3.59 percentage points; float glass enterprise operating rate is 76.01% (weekly), unchanged. - Glass in - production capacity is 16.07 million tons/year (weekly), up 0.05 million tons; glass in - production production lines are 225 (weekly), unchanged. - Soda ash enterprise inventory is 1.6598 million tons (weekly), up 0.0599 million tons; glass enterprise inventory is 59.355 million weight boxes (weekly), down 1.553 million weight boxes [2]. 3.4 Downstream Situation - Cumulative real - estate new construction area is 398.0101 million square meters, up 45.9501 million square meters; cumulative real - estate completion area is 276.9354 million square meters, up 26.5954 million square meters [2]. 3.5 Industry News - Henan Haohua Junhua's soda ash plant reduced production due to synthetic ammonia issues, with stable prices. - Zhongyan Anhui Hongsifang's soda ash plant increased its load. - Chongqing Heyou Industrial's 400,000 - ton/year soda ash plant reduced its load. - Qinghai Wucai's 1.1 - million - ton/year soda ash plant is operating stably, currently not quoting prices and implementing one - order - one - negotiation. - Tangshan Sanyou's 2.3 - million - ton/year soda ash plant reduced production, operating at about 70% capacity. - Shandong Haitian Bio - Chemical's 1.5 - million - ton/year soda ash plant resumed production. - Shandong Haihua's 3 - million - ton/year soda ash plant reduced its load. - Anhui Huainan Alkali Plant's boiler was ignited. - The soda ash market in Sichuan and Chongqing is stable. With the resumption of plant operations, supply is expected to increase, and the market is filled with strong wait - and - see sentiment [2]. 3.6 Glass Market Analysis - From the supply side, glass production lines in October continued the relatively stable trend of September. Due to the approaching peak season of natural gas demand and the expected increase in natural gas prices, the profit of natural gas - fueled production lines will be further squeezed, and the willingness to cold - repair such lines may significantly increase. In addition, the implementation of policies to manage backward production capacity may limit capacity release. - From the demand side, the real - estate sales during the National Day holiday were generally good, but the stabilization of demand may not be sustainable. The market is expected to shift from supply - demand trading to policy - driven trading after the holiday. The price of glass is likely to oscillate upwards [2]. 3.7 Soda Ash Market Analysis - Yuanxing Energy's Phase II facilities are expected to be gradually commissioned, intensifying the supply - surplus situation. In October, during the off - season of downstream demand and with continuous supply growth, enterprise inventory is likely to rise again, putting pressure on prices. The demand from the real - estate and photovoltaic industries may not strongly support the soda ash market. However, the weakening downward momentum of prices may lead to production cuts, which could stimulate price recovery [2].