Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The paper - making sector is oscillating at the bottom due to loose supply and demand. Pulp shows a pattern of "weak softwood and stable hardwood", and double - offset paper remains in a low - level stalemate in the short term [1][9]. Summary by Directory Part 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - **Analysis**: Pulp has a "high inventory + weak demand" situation, with softwood pulp under pressure and hardwood pulp relatively stable. Double - offset paper has loose supply and demand, with price close to cash cost and limited supply increase, but weak social demand [9]. - **Strategies**: - **Unilateral**: For SP2501, wait and see; if port inventory drops below 2 million tons and basis strengthens, go long. For OP2501, mainly wait and see, and short against the lower edge of the spot price [8]. - **Arbitrage**: Pay attention to the SP11 - 1 reverse arbitrage opportunity [8]. - **Options**: Wait and see for SP options; sell OP2601 - C - 4300 for OP options [8]. Part 2: Core Logic Analysis - **Pulp**: The supply - demand contradiction of softwood is prominent, and the spot price is suppressed. Hardwood is relatively resistant to decline but has limited upside space due to high inventory, maintaining a "weak softwood, stable hardwood" pattern [9]. - **Double - offset paper**: The price is close to cash cost, and the factory's willingness to hold prices is strong. However, due to weak social demand and high inventory, it is in a low - level stalemate in the short term [9]. Part 3: Weekly Data Tracking - **Supply and Inventory**: - **Double - offset paper**: Production is 20.7 million tons (+2.0%), capacity utilization is 53.9% (+0.9pct), and enterprise inventory is 133.1 million tons (+1.2%). Production increased, but demand was weak, and inventory continued to rise [9][20]. - **Coated paper**: Production is 8.5 million tons (+7.6%), capacity utilization is 63.1% (+4.8pct), and enterprise inventory is 36.8 million tons (+1.7%). Supply increased significantly, but demand was limited, and inventory rebounded slightly [23][28]. - **Domestic pulp**: The sample production of hardwood pulp is 23.5 million tons, and the weekly average production profit is about 110 yuan/ton (+0.9%). The overall supply increased slightly, and the profit rebounded slightly [32]. - **Wood pulp**: The total inventory of five major ports is 2.055 million tons, a decrease of 19,000 tons (-0.9%). The domestic chemimechanical pulp production profit is 151 yuan/ton (-4.4%) [35]. - **White cardboard**: Production is 36.0 million tons (+4.35%), capacity utilization is 79.65% (+3.32pct), and factory inventory is 1.08 million tons (+0.47%). Supply recovered rapidly, and inventory continued to accumulate slightly [41]. - **Price**: - **Double - offset paper**: The average ex - factory price is 4643 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit is - 244 yuan/ton [9]. - **Coated paper**: The average enterprise - inclusive tax price is 4975 yuan/ton, and the price is weakly stable [51]. - **Pulp**: Softwood pulp in Shandong is 5444 yuan/ton (-1.22%), hardwood pulp is 4257 yuan/ton (+0.16%), natural pulp is 4864 yuan/ton (+0.29%), and chemimechanical pulp is 3700 yuan/ton (unchanged) [57].

1. Investment Rating of the Report - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply of pulp is expected to remain loose, with an increase in exports from three South American countries in September. Although the offer price of hardwood pulp has risen for two consecutive periods, the offer price of softwood pulp has declined [4]. - Demand is weak. Except for white cardboard, the production and prices of other wood - pulp papers have not increased significantly. Paper mills maintain just - in - time replenishment, which does not boost pulp prices [4]. - Pulp inventory shows a narrow - range destocking trend. As of October 16, 2025, the inventory of mainstream pulp ports in China was 2.074 million tons, a decrease of 0.003 million tons from the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 0.1% [4]. - The pulp futures have reached an absolute low, but there is no upward driving force, and the pressure of old warehouse receipts is high. It is recommended to wait and see. The trading strategy is a 12 - 1 reverse arbitrage, and attention should be paid to the destocking of pulp warehouse receipts [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Part One: Main Viewpoints and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: Suzano announced price increases in September 2025, with a $20/ton increase in Asia and an $80/ton increase in Europe and the United States. Chile's Arauco Company's September quotes for softwood pulp and hardwood pulp showed a mixed trend, and overall supply is expected to remain loose [4]. - **Demand**: Except for white cardboard, the production and prices of other wood - pulp papers did not rise significantly, and paper mills' replenishment did not boost pulp prices [4]. - **Inventory**: As of October 16, 2025, the inventory of mainstream pulp ports in China decreased slightly [4]. - **Investment Viewpoint**: A 12 - 1 reverse arbitrage is recommended, and it is advisable to wait and see due to the lack of upward driving force and high old warehouse receipt pressure [4]. 3.2 Part Two: Review of Futures and Spot Market Quotes - **Futures Market**: This week, the pulp futures fluctuated at a low level, and the old warehouse receipt problem has not been resolved, suppressing the near - month contract [8]. - **Spot Market**: Hardwood pulp prices were stable, while softwood pulp prices declined. For example, the price of softwood pulp Silver Star was 5,520 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 50 yuan/ton and a month - on - month decrease of 150 yuan/ton [17]. - **Outer - Market Quotes**: In September, the price of hardwood pulp increased, while the outer - market quotes of softwood pulp decreased [20]. - **Position**: As of October 24, 2025, the total position of pulp futures decreased by 10.45% from the previous week, and the position of the main contract decreased by 11.98% [23]. 3.3 Part Three: Fundamental Data of Pulp Supply and Demand - **Import Volume**: In September, the import volume of pulp and wood chips increased. The total pulp import volume was 2.952 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 11.27% [5]. - **Inventory**: Pulp port inventory decreased slightly, and the number of warehouse receipts was stable. Overseas, the inventory of softwood pulp mills increased, while that of hardwood pulp mills was stable [34][39]. - **Downstream Demand**: The price of white cardboard increased, while other paper types were stable. In September 2025, the production of paper products increased month - on - month. The inventory of white cardboard decreased, while that of other paper types was stable [41][50][57]. - **International Demand**: In September 2025, the inventory - available days of European softwood pulp and hardwood pulp decreased, indicating a demand recovery. In the United States, demand was stable [75]. 3.4 Part Four: Valuation of Pulp Futures - **Basis**: As of October 24, 2025, the basis of Shandong Russian Needle and Shandong Silver Star weakened [84]. - **Spread**: The 11 - 1 month spread of pulp shrank [84]. - **Import Profit**: As of October 24, 2025, the import profit of softwood pulp decreased slightly, while that of hardwood pulp increased slightly [88].

Macro Insights - The report emphasizes the dual policy line of "industrial technology + boosting domestic demand," reflecting the central government's commitment to economic transformation and upgrading [2] - The construction of a modern industrial system has been prioritized, indicating a stronger focus on how technological innovation integrates with industrial development [2] - High-level opening up has been elevated in importance, suggesting a proactive approach to gaining development advantages amid global competition [2] Market Data - The US inflation data for September was lower than expected, primarily due to declines in housing, used car, and truck prices, which may pave the way for future interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [3] - The market is expected to maintain a strong performance in the short term, supported by the recent policy announcements from the 20th National Congress and ongoing US-China trade negotiations [4] Bond Market - As of the end of September 2025, the total bond custody volume reached 175.46 trillion yuan, with a net increase of 0.92 trillion yuan month-on-month [5] - The secondary market for REITs showed a slight upward trend, with the weighted REITs index closing at 181.5, yielding a weekly return of 0.11% [6] - Credit bond issuance increased by 33.45% week-on-week, with a total issuance of 578.28 billion yuan [7] High-end Manufacturing - Domestic sales of construction machinery continued to grow in September, with significant recovery in non-excavator categories and strong export performance [12] - The report recommends several leading manufacturers in the construction machinery sector, including SANY Heavy Industry and XCMG, as well as component manufacturers like Hengli Hydraulic [12] Machinery Industry - In September, exports of electric tools and lawn mowers increased by 4% and 11% year-on-year, respectively, while excavator and tractor exports saw growth rates of 42% and 51% [13] - The report highlights the continued trend of declining exports to the US, while machine tools and tractors showed marginal acceleration in export growth [13] Banking Sector - The People's Bank of China reported that new RMB loans totaled 14.75 trillion yuan in the first three quarters, a year-on-year decrease of 1.27 trillion yuan, with a loan balance growth rate of 6.6% [14] - The report notes that corporate loans remain strong in key sectors such as manufacturing and technology, while real estate loans continue to decline [14] Pharmaceutical Industry - The report indicates that China's pharmaceutical innovation is gaining momentum, with domestic policies supporting innovation and stabilizing industry profitability [17] - It recommends focusing on innovative drugs and high-end medical devices, highlighting companies like Innovent Biologics and Mindray Medical [17] Company Research - Ping An Bank reported a revenue decline of 9.8% and a net profit decrease of 3.5% in the first three quarters, but asset stability was maintained [18] - Bilibili's self-developed game "Escape from Duck City" is expected to contribute significantly to revenue, with a focus on cost control and stable expenses [19] - Huizhou Technology is projected to see significant revenue growth from its data center and automotive wiring businesses, maintaining a "buy" rating [20]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call discusses investment opportunities in the metal packaging and paperboard industries, particularly focusing on the metal can and boxboard paper sectors [1][3][5]. Metal Packaging Industry - The metal packaging industry has undergone two rounds of capital expenditure since 2010, with the latest peak in 2022. Currently, the industry is in a low phase after three years of consolidation [3][4]. - Profitability has significantly declined, with gross margins dropping from around 20% in 2010 to approximately 5% currently. Major companies like Orijin, Baosteel, and Shengxing are operating below the breakeven point [3][4]. - A price increase of one cent in the metal can sector could yield over 150 million yuan in profit elasticity for the industry [3][8]. - Orijin is expected to benefit the most from a mild price increase scenario, particularly due to its overseas market expansion plans in regions like Saudi Arabia, Thailand, and Kazakhstan [4][9]. Paperboard Industry - The boxboard paper sector is currently experiencing deep losses, with calls from the Guangdong Paper Industry Association for a return to reasonable profit levels [1][4]. - The exit of small manufacturers and a reduction in imports are expected to improve capacity utilization rates, which have increased from 67% to 72% [4][6]. - The price of boxboard paper has risen by approximately 300 yuan per ton due to increased waste paper prices, leading to a recovery in profit margins [4][6]. - Key players like Nine Dragons Paper and Sun Paper are anticipated to benefit from these trends, with Sun Paper's new projects and timber layout providing long-term advantages [4][11]. Market Dynamics - The two-piece can market is seeing increased concentration, with the top three companies holding over 75% market share, enhancing their bargaining power [5][6]. - Despite a temporary oversupply situation, the upcoming year-end negotiations are expected to restore profitability in the metal packaging sector [6][7]. - The overall demand and supply mismatch remains a concern, particularly in the beer industry, which is experiencing unstable operating conditions [7]. Future Price Trends - The pricing outlook suggests a potential decrease of about 4 cents by the end of 2024, followed by a gradual increase of 1-2 cents by the end of 2026, and a cumulative increase of 3-4 cents by the end of 2027, returning prices to 2025 levels [2][7]. Investment Recommendations - Sun Paper and Nine Dragons Paper are highlighted as key investment opportunities due to their strategic advantages and expected profit recovery [11][12][13]. - Sun Paper's new projects and timber layout are expected to support long-term profit growth, while Nine Dragons benefits from its cost advantages in self-built pulp lines [12][13]. Conclusion - Both the metal packaging and paperboard industries are showing signs of potential recovery, with specific companies positioned to capitalize on these trends. The focus on supply-demand dynamics and strategic pricing will be crucial for future profitability in these sectors [1][4][5][6].

Group 1: Banking Sector Insights - The People's Bank of China reported a total of 14.75 trillion RMB in new loans for the first three quarters, a decrease of 1.27 trillion RMB year-on-year, with a year-on-year growth rate of 6.6% for RMB loans as of the end of Q3 [4] - Corporate loans continue to act as a stabilizing force, with strong investment in key sectors such as manufacturing, technology, and green industries [4] - The real estate sector continues to experience negative growth in loans, with mortgage loans showing a decline compared to the same period last year [4] Group 2: Company Performance Reviews - Ping An Bank reported a revenue decline of 9.8% and a net profit drop of 3.5% year-on-year for the first three quarters, although the decline has narrowed compared to the first half of the year [5] - Wuzhou Special Paper achieved a revenue of 6.46 billion RMB for the first three quarters, marking an 18.1% increase year-on-year, but net profit fell by 44.7% [5] - Fuling Zhacai's Q3 revenue reached 690 million RMB, a year-on-year increase of 4.5%, with net profit also improving by 4.3% [7] - Tianrun Dairy reported a revenue of 2.074 billion RMB for the first three quarters, a decrease of 3.81% year-on-year, with a net loss of 11 million RMB [8] - Weisi Medical's revenue for the first three quarters was 326 million RMB, an increase of 11.58% year-on-year, with net profit rising by 30.68% [9]

国泰君安期货·能源化工 胶版印刷纸周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所·石忆宁 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0022533 日期：2025年10月26日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint CONTENTS 行业资讯 01 行情走势 02 供需数据 03 行情研判 04 行业资讯 现货价格 成本利润 季节性特征 供给 需求 库存 进出口 行情研判 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 2 行业资讯 1 行业资讯 1、据卓创资讯数据监测统计，本周四双胶纸库存天数较上周四上升1.34%，本周增幅环比收窄0.03个百分点。行业开工整体回升，但市场需 求暂无好转，下游出版印刷的订单增量有限，经销商主动补库意向薄弱，纸厂延续累库趋势。 2、据卓创资讯数据统计，本周双胶纸开工负荷率在51.24%，环比上升2.63个百分点，本周趋势由降转升。虽然北方仍有部分中小产线停机 或转产，但上周复产的规模产线恢复至正常开工水平，带动本周行业开工整体回升。 资料来源：国泰君安期货研究 Special report on ...

Investment Rating - The report does not provide a specific investment rating for the company [1] Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 6.457 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 18.1%. However, the net profit attributable to the parent company decreased by 44.7% year-on-year to 181 million yuan [1] - The company is expected to see a recovery in profitability as production capacity expands and sales volume increases, with a projected sales increase of approximately 60,000 tons in Q3 [2] - The overall average price in Q3 is expected to slightly decline by about 60 yuan per ton, but the cost optimization from low-priced raw materials is expected to stabilize profit margins [2] Financial Performance Summary - For Q3 2025, the company achieved a gross margin of 7.6%, a decrease of 3.1 percentage points year-on-year, and a net profit margin of 2.5%, down 2.1 percentage points year-on-year [3] - The company’s operating cash flow for Q3 was 255 million yuan, an increase of 130 million yuan year-on-year, indicating improved operational efficiency [3] - The forecast for net profit attributable to the parent company for 2025-2027 is 250 million, 395 million, and 525 million yuan, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 22.6X, 14.3X, and 10.8X [3]

Group 1 - The company Meili Cloud (SZ 000815) held its 30th meeting of the 9th board of directors on October 24, 2025, to review the proposal for the Q3 2025 report [1] - For the first half of 2025, Meili Cloud's revenue composition was as follows: Internet Data Center (IDC) business accounted for 92.68%, photovoltaic power generation 5.92%, paper industry 1.23%, and other businesses 0.17% [1] - As of the report date, Meili Cloud's market capitalization was 8.5 billion yuan [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the industry [3] Core Views - The metal packaging industry is experiencing a "reverse involution" trend, with recommendations for companies like Orijin and Shengxing [5] - White cardboard prices are set to increase, indicating a potential recovery in industry profitability [5] - The U.S. consumer price index (CPI) for September was lower than expected, suggesting a potential recovery in the U.S. real estate chain demand [5] Summary by Sections 1. Home Furnishing - In September, the retail sales of furniture from enterprises above designated size increased by 16.2% year-on-year, while the residential construction area decreased by 5.1% year-on-year [5][34] - Hangzhou announced a limited-time subsidy for home purchases, providing 100,000 yuan in consumption vouchers for eligible buyers [5] - The home furnishing sector is at historical low valuations, presenting left-side layout opportunities [5] 2. Paper and Packaging - As of October 24, 2025, prices for various paper types showed mixed trends, with white cardboard increasing by 37 yuan/ton and boxboard by 55.4 yuan/ton [5][57] - The industry is expected to see strong demand in Q4 due to upcoming promotions and holidays, with boxboard and corrugated paper prices likely to remain strong [5] - The report highlights the importance of companies with sufficient self-supplied fiber and well-structured capacity, recommending companies like Nine Dragons Paper and Sun Paper [5] 3. Light Industry Consumption - The report notes that the dental care company Dengkang achieved a revenue of 1.23 billion yuan in the first three quarters, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 16.7% [5][7] - The company is expected to enhance its marketing efforts in Q4, capitalizing on the e-commerce sales peak [5] 4. Export Chain - The U.S. housing market shows signs of recovery, with September home sales increasing by 1.5% month-on-month and 4.1% year-on-year [5] - The report suggests focusing on companies with strong export capabilities, such as Jiangxin and Dream Lily [5] 5. New Tobacco Products - British American Tobacco launched a new heated tobacco device in Italy, indicating a growing market potential for new tobacco products [5][10] 6. Textile and Apparel - The report highlights the performance of various apparel brands during the Tmall Double 11 sales event, with Uniqlo and Bosideng leading in women's wear [5][7]

Investment Rating - The report does not provide a specific investment rating for Yongxin Co., Ltd. [1] Core Insights - Yongxin Co., Ltd. demonstrated steady revenue growth with a total revenue of 2.706 billion yuan for Q1-Q3 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 6.6%. The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 309 million yuan, up 1.4% year-on-year [1][2] - The company is expected to benefit from structural growth driven by high-potential businesses such as films and overseas markets, contributing positively to revenue performance [2] - The management anticipates that the new management team may accelerate business development, enhancing overall profitability [3] Financial Performance Summary - For Q3 2025, the company reported a revenue of 960 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.0%, and a net profit of 126 million yuan, up 1.0% year-on-year. The gross margin for Q3 was 24.4%, showing a slight increase of 0.4 percentage points year-on-year [1][3] - The company’s operating cash flow for Q3 was 299 million yuan, an increase of 115 million yuan year-on-year, indicating strong cash flow performance [3] - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025-2027 is projected at 460 million, 520 million, and 600 million yuan, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 15.2X, 13.5X, and 11.7X [3]