Market Overview - The three major A-share indices opened lower, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.35% and the ChiNext Index down 0.42%. Sectors such as photolithography machines, storage chips, and CPO experienced significant declines [1] Institutional Insights - CITIC Securities emphasizes a focus on resources, new productive forces, and overseas expansion as the framework for industry selection. The shift of resource stocks from cyclical to dividend attributes, driven by supply constraints and global geopolitical tensions, is expected to lead to a revaluation of these stocks. The anticipated volatility from the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts is considered negligible. The key mid-term insight is the globalization of China's manufacturing leaders, which is expected to convert market share advantages into pricing power and profit margin improvements, leading to market capitalization growth that surpasses domestic economic fundamentals [2] - Guojin Securities believes that a bull market driven by the recovery of China's profit fundamentals may be in the making. With the easing of liquidity constraints, there may be a rebound in Hong Kong stocks that experienced stagnation from June to August. Additionally, growth investments are expected to shift from technology-driven to export-oriented. Opportunities in cyclical manufacturing sectors (non-ferrous metals, machinery, chemicals) are anticipated to become the mid-term focus. The recommended sectors include upstream resources (copper, aluminum, oil, gold), capital goods (engineering machinery, heavy trucks, lithium batteries, wind power equipment), and raw materials (basic chemicals, fiberglass, paper, steel) [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry - wide investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The recent market trading logic mainly focuses on domestic incremental stimulus policies, with a short - term strengthening of the upward macro - drive. Attention should be paid to the progress of Sino - US trade negotiations and the implementation of domestic incremental policies. For assets, the stock index is expected to be slightly stronger in the short - term, and short - term cautious long positions are recommended; treasury bonds are expected to be volatile in the short - term, and cautious observation is advised; among commodity sectors, black commodities are expected to be volatile in the short - term, with cautious observation; non - ferrous metals are expected to rise significantly in the short - term, with cautious long positions; energy and chemical products are expected to rebound in a volatile manner, with cautious long positions; precious metals are expected to be strong and volatile at high levels, with cautious long positions [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro - finance - Overseas: The US Q2 GDP was significantly revised upwards, the initial jobless claims for the week ending September 20, 2025, were at a new low since the week of July 19, 2025, the US dollar index strengthened significantly, and global risk appetite continued to decline. - Domestic: China's August consumption, January - August investment, and industrial added - value growth were all lower than previous values and market expectations, and domestic demand continued to slow down. Policy support has been strengthened, and domestic risk appetite has increased significantly. The stock index is expected to be slightly stronger in the short - term, and cautious long positions are recommended; treasury bonds are expected to be volatile, and cautious observation is advised [2]. 3.2 Black Metals - **Steel**: The spot and futures markets of domestic steel continued a small - scale rebound on Thursday. The real - world demand continued to weaken, but there were differences among varieties. The supply remained at a high level, and the logic of squeezing steel mill profits may continue. The steel market is likely to fluctuate within a range in the short - term [4]. - **Iron Ore**: The spot and futures prices of iron ore continued to be strong on Thursday. The demand remained strong, and the supply was generally at a high level. The iron ore price should be treated with a range - bound thinking, but there is a risk of negative feedback after November [4][5]. - **Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron**: The spot prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese declined slightly on Thursday, while the futures prices rebounded slightly. The downstream demand is expected to improve. The futures prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese are expected to continue to fluctuate within a range [6]. - **Soda Ash**: The main contract of soda ash fluctuated on Thursday. The price was affected by the downstream glass sector. In the short - term, there will be an increase in both supply and demand, but in the long - term, the supply contradiction will suppress the price [7]. - **Glass**: The main contract of glass fluctuated on Thursday. The supply remained stable, the demand improved marginally, and with positive policy sentiment, it is expected to be strong in the short - term [7]. 3.3 Non - ferrous Metals and New Energy - **Copper**: The LME copper price rose and then fell overnight. Although the production of the Grasberg copper mine was affected, the复产 schedule reduced market speculation expectations [8]. - **Aluminum**: The aluminum price rose on Thursday and then fluctuated. It is expected to fluctuate within a narrow range in the short - term to wait for new drivers. The social inventory decreased significantly due to pre - holiday restocking by downstream enterprises [8]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and the demand is in the off - season. The short - term price is expected to be slightly stronger in a volatile manner, but the upside space is limited [9]. - **Tin**: The supply is tightened in the short - term, and the demand is weak. The inventory decreased significantly. The price is expected to be volatile in the short - term, with support from maintenance and peak - season expectations, but the upside space is under pressure [9]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The main contract of lithium carbonate rose on Thursday. The supply and demand both increased, and the fundamentals improved marginally. The price is expected to fluctuate, and the upper - pressure range should be monitored [10]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The main contract of industrial silicon rose on Thursday. There is no obvious driving force, and the price is expected to fluctuate within a range [10]. - **Polysilicon**: The main contract of polysilicon rose on Thursday. The spot prices of polysilicon, silicon wafers, and battery cells increased. The policy expectation is still strong, and it is expected to be volatile at a high level in the short - term [11]. 3.4 Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Tensions between Russia and NATO have intensified, and the supply risk has increased. Although the resumption of exports from the Kurdish region in northern Iraq provides some support, the long - term bearish expectation remains unchanged [12][13]. - **Asphalt**: The asphalt price rebounded following the crude oil price. The peak - season demand is over, and the surplus pressure remains. Attention should be paid to the extent of following the crude oil price increase [13]. - **PX**: The main contract fluctuated. The supply is still tight, but the polyester sector has declined recently, and it is expected to be weakly volatile with some support below [13]. - **PTA**: The market has expectations of joint production cuts by leading enterprises, but the basis strengthening is limited, and the demand in the peak season has fallen short. There is long - term downward pressure on the disk [14]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The price remained low and volatile. The port inventory changed little, and the downstream demand was weak. There is no obvious driving force for the price to rise [14]. - **Short - fiber**: The short - fiber price decreased slightly. The terminal orders increased seasonally but with limited amplitude. The subsequent upside space may be limited [14]. - **Methanol**: The domestic methanol market fluctuated narrowly. The supply is in surplus in the short - term, but there may be a turning point in supply and demand in October [15]. - **PP**: The market price recovered slightly. The supply is still loose, and it is expected to be weakly volatile in the short - term, and the improvement of peak - season demand should be monitored [15][16]. - **LLDPE**: The LLDPE market price increased slightly. The supply increased, and the peak - season demand fell short of expectations. The price is expected to be weakly volatile [16]. - **Urea**: The domestic urea market was stable. The supply is sufficient, the demand support is weak, and the inventory is accumulating, so there is significant short - term pressure [17]. 3.5 Agricultural Products - **US Soybeans**: The CBOT soybean price rose overnight. The resumption of export tax in Argentina and the possible downgrade of US soybean crop ratings provided some support, but the high yield and weak export sales restricted the rebound [18]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: The short - term supply - demand surplus situation in the domestic market remains unchanged. The low - valued cost of imported soybeans provides support [18]. - **Palm Oil**: The Malaysian palm oil futures rose for the second consecutive day on Thursday. The supply - demand situation is stable. In the future, attention should be paid to the low inventory in the production area, the price - support sentiment dominated by policies, and the impact of US soybean oil - related biodiesel policies on the market [19]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Oil**: The soybean oil market continues to have a situation of strong supply and weak demand. The rapeseed oil supply may shrink significantly in the short - term, and the high inventory will continue to decline, so the price is likely to rise [20].

Core Viewpoint - The pricing logic of Chinese assets has significantly changed since the introduction of the "924" policy last year, leading to reduced risks in corporate earnings and promising medium to long-term performance [1] Investment Strategy - Following the opening of the interest rate cut window by the Federal Reserve in September, the outlook for the manufacturing sector may become clearer, with investment themes likely to extend beyond the AI technology sector to include manufacturing [1] Recommended Sectors - Attention should be given to cyclical goods under the inflation narrative, such as non-ferrous metals and chemicals, which are expected to solidify valuation bottoms due to the "anti-involution" trend [1] - Industries with improved export resilience and relatively low price increases, such as machinery, electrical equipment, and pharmaceuticals, are also recommended for investment [1] - After the recovery of corporate earnings, there will be investment opportunities in domestic demand-related sectors, supported by positive expectations regarding consumer policies, which may lead to a rotation into consumer and real estate sectors [1]

Group 1 - The ChiNext Index continues to rise strongly, closing up 1.58%, indicating a bullish market trend that remains intact for long-term investment strategies [2] - Economic data shows a marginal weakening across production, investment, consumption, and export indicators in August compared to July, making it difficult for market styles to shift towards cyclical low-position sectors like consumption and real estate [2] - The monetary policy remains stable with no interest rate cuts, while August's CPI decreased by 0.4% year-on-year and PPI fell by 2.9%, indicating that inflation expectations have not yet translated to consumer spending [2] Group 2 - In a bull market with continuous inflow of incremental capital, the core contradiction determining sector investment success is the certainty of economic prosperity rather than current valuation levels [3] - The new momentum sectors, including AI, new energy, innovative pharmaceuticals, and military industry, are rapidly improving their global competitiveness, providing a foundation for sector rotation and expansion [3] - When certain technology sectors become overheated, capital tends to rotate within the technology sector or expand to other growth lines rather than shifting systematically away from technology [3] Group 3 - The ChiNext Index focuses on new productivity areas, with a strong emphasis on technological innovation, particularly in the new energy sector driven by technological breakthroughs and "anti-involution" [4] - The new technology breakthroughs, such as solid-state batteries, are opening a second growth curve for the industry, while the supply-demand dynamics in traditional new energy sectors are showing signs of improvement [4] - Tianhong ChiNext Index Quantitative Enhanced Fund aims for sustainable excess returns by closely aligning with the growth style and technological characteristics of the ChiNext Index, utilizing AI models for trading operations [4]

Market Overview - The three major indices opened slightly lower, with the Shanghai Composite Index maintaining narrow fluctuations throughout the day, while the ChiNext Index rose over 2% at one point, reaching a three-year high [1] - By the end of the trading day, the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.01%, the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 0.67%, and the ChiNext Index rose by 1.58% [1] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was approximately 2.39 trillion yuan [1] Sector Performance - The controllable nuclear fusion concept saw strong performance, with stocks like Haheng Huaton and Hezhuan Intelligent hitting the daily limit [1] - The copper cable high-speed connection concept was active, with stocks such as New Asia Electronics also reaching the daily limit [1] - The short drama gaming concept gained momentum, with Huanrui Century hitting the daily limit [1] - The multimodal AI concept rose, with Tianxiexiu reaching the daily limit [1] - The liquid cooling server concept also saw gains, with stocks like Cambridge Technology and Inspur Information hitting the daily limit [1] Notable Stocks - Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Ltd. (CATL) saw its stock rise over 5% during the day, reaching a historical high, with a total market value exceeding 1.84 trillion yuan [1] - Sectors such as IT equipment, internet, non-ferrous metals, and electrical equipment showed significant gains, while textiles and apparel, engineering machinery, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, fishery, and transportation infrastructure sectors experienced declines [1]

Core Insights - China's electrification rate is projected to reach approximately 28.8% in 2024, an increase of 0.9 percentage points from the previous year, surpassing that of major developed economies in Europe and the US [1][2] - By 2030, the national electrification rate is expected to reach around 35%, exceeding the OECD average by 8 to 10 percentage points [1] - The report indicates that the electrification rates in key regions for 2024 are as follows: Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei at about 21.4%, Yangtze River Delta at 34.1%, Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area at 41.7%, and Chengdu-Chongqing Economic Circle at 29.5% [1] Electrification and Energy Transition - A higher electrification rate reflects the continuous enhancement of China's power supply and the acceleration of the green low-carbon energy transition [2] - Electrification is considered a crucial measure for achieving the "dual carbon" goals and addressing the clean energy needs of the population [2] - The International Energy Agency emphasizes electrification as a key pathway to combat climate change [2] Industrial Electrification - The electrification rate in the industrial sector is steadily increasing, projected to reach about 27.7% in 2024, with significant improvements in high-energy-consuming industries [4] - The report highlights that the combined electrification rate for four major high-energy industries is approximately 18.4%, while high-tech and equipment manufacturing reaches about 64.7% [4] - The total industrial electricity consumption is expected to reach 6.3 trillion kilowatt-hours in 2024, accounting for 64% of total social electricity consumption [4] Strategies for Electrification Development - To further promote electrification, three key areas of focus are recommended: innovation-driven technology advancements, deepening industrial substitution, and improving the ecological system for development [4][5] - The emphasis is placed on accelerating the adoption of electric furnace technology in high-energy-consuming industries such as steel and construction materials [5] - There is a call for the replacement of inefficient motors and transformers with high-efficiency, energy-saving equipment, and the encouragement of electric boilers in stable regions [5]

Group 1: Downstream Consumption - Real estate sales show marginal improvement, with transaction area in 30 major cities increasing by 20.3% year-on-year. First-tier, second-tier, and third-tier cities saw increases of 68.8%, 21.7%, and a decrease of 19.9% respectively [2] - Retail sales of passenger cars increased by 1.0% year-on-year during the week of September 8-14, 2025, indicating a slowdown in the price war in the car market [2] - Service consumption shows signs of recovery, with the tourism price index in Hainan rising by 1.3% month-on-month and movie box office revenue increasing by 364.6% month-on-month and 149.0% year-on-year due to the release of new films [2] Group 2: Midstream Manufacturing - Construction demand shows slight improvement, with policies supporting steel growth leading to small price increases in steel and glass, while cement prices have stabilized [3] - Manufacturing sector shows overall improvement in operating rates, particularly in the automotive and chemical industries, with stable hiring intentions among companies [3] Group 3: Upstream Resources - Coal prices have risen by 3.5% month-on-month due to tight supply and pre-holiday stockpiling demands [3] - Industrial metal prices are under pressure due to a hawkish stance from U.S. Federal Reserve officials following a rate cut, combined with weak domestic downstream demand [3] Group 4: Human Flow and Logistics - Long-distance passenger transport demand has slightly improved, with an increase in air transport demand month-on-month [3] - National highway freight truck traffic and railway freight volume increased by 1.9% and 0.2% respectively, indicating a recovery in logistics [3] - Dry bulk shipping prices continue to rise due to increased demand for bulk commodity transport in the Northern Hemisphere's autumn season [3]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is experiencing high volatility, with strong performance in large-cap technology growth stocks, but signs of sector differentiation and crowded trading are becoming increasingly evident [1][2]. Market Dynamics - Recent surges in AI, computing power, and semiconductor sectors have led some private equity firms to express concerns about short-term risks in technology stocks, prompting a shift in investment focus towards cyclical, consumer, and high-end manufacturing sectors [1][2]. - The financing balance in the A-share market has been rising, indicating a concentration of leveraged funds in technology stocks, which raises potential short-term risks [1][2]. Trading Conditions - The TMT (Technology, Media, Telecommunications) sector's trading volume has reached approximately 35%, placing it in the 92nd percentile since 2019, while the growth style's trading volume is around 58%, in the 97th percentile since 2019, indicating a crowded trading environment [2]. - Some private equity firms are adjusting their portfolios to balance exposure, with a focus on reducing positions in overvalued technology stocks while increasing allocations to sectors like new energy and consumer goods [4][6]. Investment Strategies - Private equity firms are showing a clear divergence in strategies, with some reducing exposure to high-flying technology stocks and reallocating to sectors with better valuation prospects, while others maintain their focus on growth opportunities [4][6]. - There is a growing interest in sectors related to overseas demand, such as appliances and consumer brands, which are perceived to have strong competitive advantages and profitability [6][7]. Sector Outlook - The technology sector is expected to continue evolving, with opportunities emerging within the domestic supply chain, particularly in AI and related industries, where valuations are relatively lower compared to international counterparts [5][6]. - Consumer and cyclical assets are gaining attention, with expectations of improved performance as overall market confidence rises, and certain cyclical stocks are anticipated to benefit from favorable supply-demand dynamics [7].

Core Insights - In August, China's total electricity consumption reached 10,154 billion kWh, marking a year-on-year increase of 5.0%, and achieving over 10 trillion kWh for the second consecutive month [1][2][3] Electricity Consumption by Sector - The primary industry consumed 164 billion kWh, up 9.7% year-on-year [1][5] - The secondary industry consumed 5,981 billion kWh, with a year-on-year growth of 5.0% [1][5] - The tertiary industry consumed 2,046 billion kWh, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 7.2% [1][6] - Urban and rural residential electricity consumption was 1,963 billion kWh, growing by 2.4% year-on-year [1] Economic Factors Influencing Electricity Demand - The high electricity consumption is attributed to extreme summer temperatures and a recovering macroeconomic environment, leading to increased capacity utilization across various industries [2][3][4] - Manufacturing electricity consumption rose by 5.5% in August, the highest monthly increase this year, with significant recovery in sectors like steel, building materials, and chemicals [3][5] Growth in High-Tech and Equipment Manufacturing - High-tech and equipment manufacturing sectors showed resilience, with a combined electricity consumption growth of 9.1%, surpassing the average manufacturing growth rate [3][6] - The new energy vehicle manufacturing sector experienced a remarkable growth of 23.0% in electricity consumption from January to August [6] Trends in Service Sector Electricity Consumption - The information transmission, software, and IT services sector saw a 15.8% increase in electricity consumption, driven by advancements in mobile internet and cloud computing [7] - The electric vehicle charging services sector reported a staggering 44.1% growth in electricity consumption [7] Future Outlook - The overall electricity demand is expected to continue growing, influenced by the expansion of high-tech industries and the increasing adoption of electric vehicles [6][7] - The stability of the electricity supply system is becoming a critical concern due to the rising share of renewable energy sources, prompting the government to implement policies to enhance supply stability [7]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the recovery of domestic cyclical product prices and the improvement in service consumption, indicating a positive trend in the overall economic environment [2][3]. Group 1: Downstream Consumption - Real estate sales in 30 major cities increased by 20.3% year-on-year, with first, second, and third-tier cities showing growth rates of 68.8%, 21.7%, and -19.9% respectively [3]. - Retail sales of passenger cars increased by 1.0% year-on-year, with a slowdown in price competition and a slight recovery in sales growth [3]. - The service consumption index in Hainan rose by 1.3% month-on-month, with significant increases in movie box office revenues, which surged by 364.6% month-on-month and 149.0% year-on-year [3]. Group 2: Midstream Manufacturing - Construction demand showed marginal improvement, with steel and glass prices slightly rising, and cement prices stabilizing [4]. - Manufacturing activity improved, with increased operating rates in the automotive and chemical sectors, and stable hiring intentions among companies [4]. Group 3: Upstream Resources - Coal prices increased by 3.5% month-on-month due to tight supply and pre-holiday stockpiling demands [4]. - Industrial metal prices faced pressure due to weak domestic demand and hawkish signals from the U.S. Federal Reserve following a rate cut [4]. Group 4: Logistics and Transportation - Long-distance passenger transport demand improved, with a month-on-month increase in air transport demand [4]. - National highway freight traffic and railway freight volume rose by 1.9% and 0.2% respectively [4].