Group 1: Report Overview - The report is an Energy Chemical Options Daily Report dated May 7, 2025, providing early morning strategies for energy chemical options [2] Group 2: Industry Classification and Option Types - Energy chemical options are mainly divided into 5 categories: basic chemicals, energy, polyester chemicals, polyolefin chemicals, and other chemicals [3] Group 3: Basic Chemicals Sector Methanol Options - The afternoon methanol prices in Shandong on May 6 were 2400 yuan/ton in central Shandong, 2370 yuan/ton in southern Shandong, etc. [3] - Methanol has shown a weak and bearish trend with resistance above. The implied volatility is above the historical average [3] - A bearish combination strategy of call + put options is recommended to obtain time - value and directional returns, such as S_MA2506P2275, etc. [3] Rubber and Synthetic Rubber Options - The mainstream prices of high - cis butadiene rubber in different regions decreased. For example, in Shandong, it was 11700 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton [3] - Rubber has shown a weak consolidation and slight rebound under bearish pressure. The implied volatility of rubber options is at a historically high level [3] - A bearish volatility - selling strategy is recommended to obtain directional and time - value returns, such as S_RU2509P14250, etc. [3] Styrene Options - In April, the downstream demand of styrene decreased due to the Sino - US tariff war, and the inventory of finished products was high. In May, the terminal household appliance production plan decreased marginally [4] - Styrene has shown a weak and volatile trend with resistance above. The implied volatility has remained at a historically high level [4] - A volatility - selling option combination strategy is recommended to obtain time - value and directional returns, such as S_EB2506P6900, etc. [4] Group 4: Oil and Gas Sector Crude Oil Options - OPEC + members agreed to increase oil supply by 411,000 barrels per day in June, but exports did not increase significantly. The US maintained production cuts [4] - Crude oil has shown a large - fluctuation trend under bearish pressure. The implied volatility has remained at a relatively high level [4] - A volatility - selling strategy is recommended to obtain time - value returns, such as S_SC2506P455 and S_SC2506C475 [4] Liquefied Gas Options - The benchmark price of liquefied gas on the business community was 4980.00 yuan/ton, up 0.05% from the beginning of last month [4] - Liquefied gas has shown a short - term weak rebound with resistance above. The implied volatility has remained above the historical average [4] - A strategy of selling a bearish call + put option combination is recommended. Adjust the position delta dynamically and close the position if the market fluctuates sharply, such as S_PG2506P4350, etc. [4] Group 5: Polyester Chemicals Sector PX and PTA Options - At the end of the month, the PTA load was 77.7%, down 2.2% month - on - month. The overall inventory decreased year - on - year [5] - PTA has shown a mild bullish trend under bearish pressure. The implied volatility has remained at a relatively high level [5] - A volatility - selling strategy is recommended to obtain time - value returns, such as S_TA2506P4450 and S_TA2506C4600 [5] Ethylene Glycol Options - As of April 28, the port inventory was 800,000 tons, up 15,000 tons year - on - year. The downstream inventory days increased [5] - Ethylene glycol has shown a short - term weak and bearish large - fluctuation trend with resistance above. The implied volatility has risen rapidly to a historically high level [5] - A volatility - selling strategy is recommended to obtain time - value returns, such as S_EG2506P4100 and S_EG2506C4250 [5] Short - Fiber Options - At the end of the month, the polyester load was 93.4%, up 0.5% year - on - year. The short - fiber load was 91.3%, down 0.6% [5] - Short - fiber has shown a bearish rebound after over - decline. The implied volatility has remained at a relatively high level [5] - A strategy of selling a call + put option combination to sell volatility is recommended to obtain time - value returns, such as S_PF2506P6000, etc. [5] Group 6: Polyolefin Chemicals Sector Polypropylene Options - The PP production enterprise inventory decreased by 5.81% this month but increased by 8.18% year - on - year. The trade and port inventories had different changes [6] - Polypropylene has shown a weak and large - fluctuation trend with resistance above. The implied volatility is at a historically high level [6] - A strategy of selling a bearish call + put option combination is recommended. Adjust the position delta dynamically and close the position if the market fluctuates sharply, such as S_PP2506P7100, etc. [6] Polyethylene Options - The PE production enterprise inventory increased by 18.16% this month and 7.71% year - on - year. The trade inventory had different changes [6] - Polyethylene has shown a weak consolidation trend with resistance above. The implied volatility has risen rapidly to a relatively high level [6] - A bearish directional strategy is recommended to obtain directional returns, such as B_L2506P7200 and S_L2506C7300 [6] PVC Options - At the end of April, the factory inventory, social inventory, and overall inventory decreased year - on - year. The warrants increased after centralized cancellation [6] - PVC has shown a wide - range weak consolidation and then a weak downward trend, followed by a rebound with resistance above. The implied volatility has remained at a low level [6] - A bearish directional strategy is recommended to obtain directional returns, such as B_V2506P4900, etc. [6] Group 7: Option Data Summary Option Underlying Market Data - Data such as the closing price, change, trading volume, and open interest of various option underlyings are provided, such as methanol with a closing price of 2289 yuan for the 2506 contract, up 8 yuan, etc. [8] Option Volume, Open Interest, and Amount Data - Data on the volume, open interest, and amount of various options, including their changes, are presented, such as the volume of methanol options (MA506) being 16.33 million, up 2.41 million [9] Option Volume, Open Interest, and Amount PCR Data - PCR data for volume, open interest, and amount of various options, including their changes, are given, such as the volume - PCR of methanol options (MA506) being 1.31, down 0.17 [10] Option Maximum Open Interest at Strike Prices - The strike prices with the maximum open interest for calls and puts, as well as pressure and support points, are provided for each option underlying, such as the pressure point of methanol (MA506) being 2350 yuan [11] Option Implied Volatility Data - Implied volatility data, including changes, annual averages, call and put implied volatilities, etc., are presented for each option underlying, such as the implied volatility of methanol (MA506) being 24.78, down 8.08 [13]

资讯早班车 资讯早班车-2025-05-07 一、 宏观数据速览 | 发布日期 | 指标日期 | 指标名称 | 单位 | 当期值 | 上期值 | 去年同期值 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 20250416 | 2025/03 | GDP:不变价:当季同比 | % | 5.40 | 5.40 | 5.30 | | 20250430 | 2025/04 | 制造业 PMI | % | 49.00 | 50.50 | 50.40 | | 20250430 | 2025/04 | 非制造业 PMI:商务活 | % | 50.40 | 50.80 | 51.20 | | | | 动 | | | | | | 20250430 | 2025/04 | 财新 PMI:制造业 | % | 50.40 | 51.20 | 51.40 | | 20250506 | 2025/04 | 财新 PMI:服务业经营 活动指数 | % | 50.70 | 51.90 | 52.50 | | | | 社会融资规模增量:当 | | | | | | 20250414 | 2025 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The report presents the basis, inter - period, and inter - variety data of various commodities on different dates, including power coal, energy chemicals, black metals, non - ferrous metals, agricultural products, and stock index futures, which can help investors analyze the price relationships and trends of these commodities [2][8][13]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Power Coal - Basis data from April 25 to May 6, 2025, shows that the basis values are negative and gradually decreasing, with values of - 146.4, - 147.4, - 149.4, - 151.4, - 153.4 respectively. The 5 - 1, 9 - 1, and 9 - 5 inter - period spreads are all 0 [2]. 2. Energy Chemicals (1) Energy Commodities - For INE crude oil, fuel oil, and the crude oil/bitumen ratio, basis and ratio data from April 25 to May 6, 2025, are presented. For example, the INE crude oil basis on May 6 is - 40.14 [6]. (2) Chemical Commodities - **Basis**: From April 25 to May 6, 2025, basis data for natural rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, and PP are provided. For instance, the natural rubber basis on May 6 is - 115 [8]. - **Inter - period**: Inter - period spreads for different chemicals are given, such as the 5 - 1, 9 - 1, and 9 - 5 spreads for natural rubber, methanol, etc. The 5 - 1 spread of natural rubber is - 930 [8]. - **Inter - variety**: Inter - variety spreads like LLDPE - PVC, LLDPE - PP, etc., are presented for different dates [8]. 3. Black Metals - **Basis**: Basis data for rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal from April 25 to May 6, 2025, are shown. For example, the rebar basis on May 6 is 113.0 [13]. - **Inter - period**: Inter - period spreads for rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal are provided. The 5 - 1 spread of rebar is - 78.0 [13]. - **Inter - variety**: Inter - variety relationships such as rebar/iron ore, rebar/coke, etc., are presented for different dates [13]. 4. Non - ferrous Metals (1) Domestic Market - Basis data for copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin from April 25 to May 6, 2025, are given. The copper basis on May 6 is 770 [22]. (2) London Market - Data on LME spreads, Shanghai - London ratios, CIF prices, domestic spot prices, and import profit and loss for copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin are presented. For example, the LME copper spread on April 30 is 20.23 [29]. 5. Agricultural Products - **Basis**: Basis data for soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, corn, etc., from April 25 to May 6, 2025, are provided. The soybean basis on May 6 is - 269 [37]. - **Inter - period**: Inter - period spreads for various agricultural products are given. The 5 - 1 spread of soybean is 23 [37]. - **Inter - variety**: Inter - variety relationships such as soybean/corn, soybean oil/soybean meal, etc., are presented for different dates [37]. 6. Stock Index Futures - **Basis**: Basis data for CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 from April 25 to May 6, 2025, are shown. The CSI 300 basis on May 6 is 42.34 [45]. - **Inter - period**: Inter - period spreads for different stock index futures are provided. The next - month - current - month spread of CSI 300 is - 30.6 [45].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report conducts fundamental, market, and volatility analyses of various energy - chemical options, and provides corresponding strategy operations and suggestions [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Basic Chemicals Sector - **Methanol Options**: The downstream MTO units have maintenance plans, but port inventory has decreased to a low level. The market has been fluctuating in a wide - range rectangle recently. Implied volatility is above the historical average. A bullish + bearish option short - biased portfolio strategy is recommended, such as S_MA2506P2275, S_MA2506P2300, S_MA2506C2350, and S_MA2506C2375 [3]. - **Rubber Options/Synthetic Rubber Options**: The market price of high - cis butadiene rubber in various regions has declined. The market shows a weak consolidation pattern under bearish pressure. Implied volatility is at a relatively high historical level. A short - biased volatility - selling strategy is recommended, such as S_RU2509P14250, S_RU2509P14500, S_RU2509C15250, and S_RU2509C15500 [3]. - **Styrene Options**: In April, downstream demand declined due to the Sino - US tariff war, and inventory was at a high level. The market has been in a volatile downward trend with resistance. Implied volatility remains at a relatively high historical level. A volatility - selling option portfolio strategy is recommended, such as S_EB2506P6900, S_EB2506P7000, S_EB2506C7200, and S_EB2506C7300 [4]. 3.2 Oil and Gas Sector - **Crude Oil Options**: OPEC + members agreed to increase oil supply in June, but exports have not increased significantly. The US has maintained production cuts. The market has shown large - scale fluctuations under bearish pressure. Implied volatility remains at a relatively high level. A bearish spread put option strategy is recommended, such as B_SC2506P485 and S_SC2506P465 [4]. - **Liquefied Gas Options**: The benchmark price has increased slightly compared to the beginning of last month. The market has shown a short - term weak rebound pattern with resistance. Implied volatility remains above the historical average. A short - biased call + put option selling strategy is recommended, such as S_PG2506P4350, S_PG2506P4300, S_PG2506C4450, and S_PG2506C4500 [4]. 3.3 Polyester Chemicals Sector - **PX Options/PTA Options**: PTA load is expected to decline in May, and inventory has decreased year - on - year. The market has shown a moderate bullish upward trend under bearish pressure. Implied volatility remains at a relatively high level. A volatility - selling strategy is recommended, such as S_TA2506P4450 and S_TA2506C4600 [5]. - **Ethylene Glycol Options**: Port inventory has increased slightly year - on - year, and downstream inventory days have increased. The market has shown large - scale fluctuations under short - term bearish pressure. Implied volatility has rapidly risen to a relatively high historical level. A volatility - selling strategy is recommended, such as S_EG2506P4100 and S_EG2506C4250 [5]. - **Short - Fiber Options**: Polyester load is relatively high, but short - fiber load has decreased slightly. The market has shown a rebound after a sharp decline. Implied volatility remains at a relatively high average level. A call + put option selling strategy for volatility - selling is recommended, such as S_PF2506P6000, S_PF2506P6100, S_PF2506C6400, and S_PF2506C6500 [5]. 3.4 Polyolefin Chemicals Sector - **Polypropylene Options**: PP production enterprise, trader, and port inventories have different trends. The market has shown a large - scale volatile pattern with resistance. Implied volatility is at a relatively high historical level. A short - biased call + put option selling strategy is recommended, such as S_PP2506P7100, S_PP2506P7000, S_PP2506C7200, and S_PP2506C7300 [6]. - **Polyethylene Options**: PE production enterprise and trader inventories have changed. The market has shown a weak consolidation pattern with resistance. Implied volatility has rapidly risen to a relatively high level. A bearish directional strategy is recommended, such as B_L2506P7200 and S_L2506C7300 [6]. - **PVC Options**: Factory and social inventories have decreased year - on - year. The market has shown a volatile upward pattern with resistance. Implied volatility remains at a relatively low level. A bearish directional strategy is recommended, such as B_V2506P4900, B_V2506P4950, S_V2506C5000, and S_V2506C5100 [6]. 3.5 Data Summary - **Option Underlying Market Data**: It includes closing prices, price changes, trading volumes, and open interest changes of various option underlying assets [8]. - **Option Volume, Open Interest, and Turnover Data**: It shows the volume, open interest, and turnover of different options, as well as their changes [9]. - **Option Volume, Open Interest, and Turnover PCR Data**: It presents the PCR values of volume, open interest, and turnover of different options and their changes [10]. - **Option Maximum Open Interest at Strike Prices**: It provides the strike prices with the maximum open interest for calls and puts, as well as pressure and support levels for different options [11]. - **Option Implied Volatility Data**: It shows the implied volatility, its changes, annual averages, call and put implied volatilities, and historical volatilities of different options [13].

日度报告——综合晨报 美 4 月 ISM 服务业好于预期，智利 3 月铜产 量同比增加 9% [T报ab告le_日R期an：k] 2025-05-06 宏观策略（外汇期货(美元指数)） 美国拒绝完全豁免对日本的"对等"关税 美国 4 月非农数据好于预期，新增就业维持在较高水平，表明劳 动力市场没有受到关税的负面影响，美元指数维持震荡。 宏观策略（国债期货） 中国 4 月官方制造业 PMI 为 49%，不及预期 综 4 月官方制造业 PMI 不及预期，贸易冲突对于经济基本面的影响 正在体现。基本面将会主导债券走势，预计国债以震荡偏强为 主。 合 宏观策略（黄金） 晨 美国 4 月 ISM 非制造业 PMI 录得 51.6 报 国际金价昨日上涨超过 3%，收复了五一假期间的跌幅，市场再 度针对关税和地缘政治风险展开交易。特朗普表示要对海外制 作的美国电影加征关税再度施压市场风险偏好。 黑色金属（螺纹钢/热轧卷板） Mysteel 五大品种库存周环比下降 87.17 万吨 节前五大品种去库加速，受补库等因素带动，螺纹表需回升到 291 万吨以上，但市场对短期需求回升的关注度并不算高，需求 走弱预期依然导致钢价承压， ...

Group 1: Overall A Performance - In Q1 2025, the net profit growth for the entire A-share market and non-financial A-shares showed a slight recovery, with year-on-year growth of 3.5% and 4.2% respectively, compared to significant declines in Q4 2024 of -15.1% and -47.2% [8][9][12] - The return on equity (ROE) continued to decline, reaching 7.8% in Q1 2025, down from 7.9% in Q4 2024, primarily due to a decrease in asset turnover rate [8][10][11] - The computer, agriculture, and steel industries led profit growth in Q1 2025, while real estate, coal, and military industries lagged behind [12][15] Group 2: Fund Quarterly Report - Active equity public funds increased their positions and reduced redemptions, with stock positions for ordinary equity, mixed equity, and flexible allocation funds at 89.36%, 88.17%, and 76.70% respectively, showing slight increases from Q4 2024 [16][18][20] - The total redemption for active equity public funds in Q1 2025 was 72.3 billion, a significant decrease of 67.0% compared to 218.9 billion in Q4 2024 [16][18] - The TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications) and high-end manufacturing sectors saw increased allocations, while financial real estate and cyclical sectors were reduced [20][22] Group 3: Policy Insights - The focus of the Political Bureau meeting was on stabilizing internal confidence, with monetary and fiscal policies aimed at accelerating the use of existing tools [30] - The meeting highlighted the need for proactive macro policies to stabilize employment, enterprises, markets, and expectations, indicating a shift in policy framework [30] Group 4: Investment Strategy - The report maintains an optimistic view on market conditions, emphasizing the importance of observing volume and price during the market observation period, with a focus on domestic demand and self-sufficiency [7] - Key sectors for domestic demand include media, food and beverage, real estate, transportation, automotive, and agriculture, with specific trends noted in each [7] - The self-sufficiency strategy is driven by the strategic competition in the technology sector between China and the US, leading to a restructuring of the domestic industrial chain [7]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoint The report conducts a comprehensive analysis of various energy and chemical options, including fundamental aspects, market trends, volatility analysis, and provides corresponding option trading strategies and suggestions for different types of energy and chemical options [3]. 3. Summary by Category 3.1 Energy and Chemical Option Classification - Energy and chemical options are mainly divided into five categories: basic chemicals (methanol, rubber, synthetic rubber, styrene options), energy (crude oil, liquefied gas options), polyester chemicals (paraxylene, PTA, ethylene glycol, short - fiber options), polyolefin chemicals (polypropylene, PVC, polyethylene options), and other chemicals (caustic soda, soda ash, urea options) [3]. 3.2 Basic Chemicals Sector - **Methanol Options**: Last week, port inventory decreased to 46.32 tons, and enterprise inventory was 30.98 tons. The market has been in a wide - range rectangular consolidation. Implied volatility is above the historical average. A bullish + bearish option bearish portfolio strategy is recommended, such as S_MA2506P2275, S_MA2506P2300, S_MA2506C2350, S_MA2506C2375 [3]. - **Rubber/Synthetic Rubber Options**: The market price of high - cis butadiene rubber in various regions has decreased. The market shows a weak consolidation pattern under bearish pressure. Implied volatility is at a relatively high historical level. A bearish volatility - selling strategy is recommended, such as S_RU2509P14250, S_RU2509P14500, S_RU2509C15250, S_RU2509C15500 [3]. - **Styrene Options**: Both factory and port inventories have decreased, but the rate of decline has weakened. The market has been volatile after a decline. Implied volatility remains at a relatively high historical level. A volatility - selling option portfolio strategy is recommended, such as S_EB2506P6900, S_EB2506P7000, S_EB2506C7200, S_EB2506C7300 [4]. 3.3 Oil and Gas Sector - **Crude Oil Options**: OPEC plans to increase production, and US supply has declined. The market has shown large fluctuations under bearish pressure. Implied volatility remains at a relatively high level. A bear put spread strategy is recommended, such as B_SC2506P485 and S_SC2506P465 [4]. - **Liquefied Gas Options**: Port inventory has rebounded, and the production capacity utilization rate of related industries has changed. The market has shown a short - term weak rebound. Implied volatility is above the historical average. A bearish call + put option selling strategy is recommended, such as S_PG2506P4350, S_PG2506P4300, S_PG2506C4450, S_PG2506C4500 [4]. 3.4 Polyester Chemicals Sector - **PX/PTA Options**: PTA load is 78.9%, and multiple devices are in maintenance. The market has shown a mild bullish trend. Implied volatility is at a relatively high level. A volatility - selling strategy is recommended, such as S_TA2506P4450 and S_TA2506C4600 [5]. - **Ethylene Glycol Options**: Last week, the EG load was 68.5%. The market has shown large fluctuations under bearish pressure. Implied volatility has rapidly risen to a relatively high historical level. A volatility - selling strategy is recommended, such as S_EG2506P4100 and S_EG2506C4250 [5]. - **Short - Fiber Options**: Port inventory has increased, and downstream factory inventory days have risen. The market has shown a rebound after a decline. Implied volatility remains at a relatively high average level. A volatility - selling call + put option selling strategy is recommended, such as S_PF2506P6000, S_PF2506P6100, S_PF2506C6400, S_PF2506C6500 [5]. 3.5 Polyolefin Chemicals Sector - **Polypropylene Options**: PP production enterprise inventory has decreased this week, and the market has shown a wide - range volatile pattern under pressure. Implied volatility is at a relatively high historical level. A bearish call + put option selling strategy is recommended, such as S_PP2506P7100, S_PP2506P7000, S_PP2506C7200, S_PP2506C7300 [6]. - **Polyethylene Options**: PE production enterprise inventory has increased, and the market has shown a weak consolidation pattern under pressure. Implied volatility has rapidly risen to a relatively high level. A bearish directional strategy is recommended, such as B_L2506P7200 and S_L2506C7300 [6]. - **PVC Options**: Factory and social inventories have changed, and the market has shown a volatile rebound pattern under pressure. Implied volatility remains at a relatively low level. A bearish directional strategy is recommended, such as B_V2506P4900, B_V2506P4950, S_V2506C5000, S_V2506C5100 [6]. 3.6 Data Summary - **Option Underlying Market Data**: Provides closing prices, price changes, trading volumes, and open interest for various option underlying assets [8]. - **Option Volume, Open Interest, and Turnover Data**: Includes volume, volume changes, open interest, open interest changes, turnover, and turnover changes for different options [9]. - **Option Volume, Open Interest, and Turnover PCR Data**: Presents PCR values and their changes for volume, open interest, and turnover of different options [10]. - **Option Maximum Open Interest at Strike Prices**: Lists the maximum open interest at call and put strike prices, as well as pressure and support levels for different options [11]. - **Option Implied Volatility Data**: Provides implied volatility, implied volatility changes, annual averages, call and put implied volatilities, and volatility differences for different options [13].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report. Core Viewpoints - Most commodities are expected to be in a state of oscillation in the short term, with some showing potential for decline or upside. Amid uncertainties in tariffs and changing policies, investors are advised to be cautious and adjust their strategies according to market conditions [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro Finance - For stock index futures, it's recommended to hold a light position and wait for a clear market direction. Due to high overseas uncertainties during the May Day holiday and low option volatility, consider a double - buy strategy for stock index options before the holiday [1]. - The bond futures are favored by asset shortage and weak economy, but the central bank's short - term interest rate risk warning restricts the upside [1]. - Gold is in short - term oscillation adjustment, but the long - term upward logic remains unchanged [1]. Non - Ferrous Metals - Copper has decent downstream demand, but there is a risk of price correction due to trade frictions [1]. - Aluminum prices oscillate due to uncertainties in global trade frictions [1]. - Alumina's supply - demand pattern has improved, with limited downside but lack of upward momentum [1]. - Zinc has support from low near - month inventory but faces fundamental suppression, presenting short - selling opportunities [1]. - Nickel prices oscillate after bottom - up repair. Pay attention to the cost support of electrowon nickel and beware of policy changes [1]. - Stainless steel futures oscillate in the short term. It's advisable to wait and see, and the industrial side should focus on policy changes and steel mill production schedules [1]. - Tin has a risk of supply premium disappearing as the复产 expectation in Low - Bang strengthens [1]. Industrial and Energy - Related Commodities - Industrial silicon is in a state of oversupply, with demand not improving and inventory pressure not relieved [1]. - Polysilicon's抢装潮 is ending, with demand expected to decline in the second half of the year. There is a need for a rebound after a large short - term decline [1]. - Carbonate lithium has a pattern of supply exceeding demand, with downstream maintaining just - in - time purchases [1]. - Steel products such as rebar and hot - rolled coil face downward pressure on opening prices due to trade disputes [1]. - Iron ore is under short - term pressure due to tariff policies and market sentiment [1]. - Manganese silicon and silicon iron oscillate, with cost and supply - demand factors at play [1]. - Glass and soda ash face supply - demand imbalances, with prices under pressure [1]. - Coke and coking coal are in a relatively oversupplied situation, and industrial customers can seize hedging opportunities [1]. Agricultural Products - Palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil are affected by weather and market sentiment, and it's recommended to wait and see before the holiday [1]. - Cotton prices may be affected by the trend of crude oil and the substitution effect between chemical fiber and cotton [1]. - Sugar prices are affected by overseas supply shortages and domestic high inventory [1]. - Corn may have a correction risk after the hype cools down, with a long - term bullish logic [1]. - Soybean meal is expected to oscillate weakly, and M09 is recommended to be bought at low prices [1]. Forestry and Livestock - Pulp is recommended to be short - sold or hedged due to weak cost support and entering the off - season [1]. - Logs have high inventory and no short - term positive factors, expected to oscillate at a low level [1]. - Pigs have a clear downward expectation in the futures market due to increased supply and lack of downstream highlights [1]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude oil, fuel oil, and asphalt are affected by factors such as tariffs, OPEC + policies, and cost - demand relationships [1]. - Rubber products such as natural rubber and BR rubber oscillate, with weak fundamentals [1]. - PTA is bearish due to device maintenance and weak market sentiment [1]. - Ethylene glycol, styrene, urea, methanol, PE, PP, PVC, and caustic soda all have their own supply - demand and market sentiment factors affecting their price trends [1]. Others - For the container shipping European line, the peak - season contracts can be lightly tested for long positions, and attention should be paid to the 6 - 8 reverse spread [1].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report Through macro - fundamental analysis and technical analysis, the report forecasts the trend of various futures on April 30, 2025, including their support and resistance levels, and also analyzes the market situation on April 29, 2025, along with relevant macro - news and commodity - related information [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Outlook - **Stock Index Futures**: Expected to oscillate and consolidate. IF2506 has resistance at 3748 and 3768 points, support at 3715 and 3705 points; IH2506 has resistance at 2640 and 2650 points, support at 2612 and 2605 points; IC2506 has resistance at 5530 and 5561 points, support at 5440 and 5420 points; IM2506 has resistance at 5820 and 5848 points, support at 5700 and 5668 points [2]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The ten - year T2506 and thirty - year TL2506 are likely to oscillate strongly. T2506 has resistance at 109.16 and 109.32 yuan, support at 109.00 and 108.88 yuan; TL2506 has resistance at 121.2 and 121.7 yuan, support at 120.8 and 120.4 yuan [3]. - **Precious Metal Futures**: Gold futures AU2506 are likely to oscillate and consolidate, with resistance at 792.2 and 795.0 yuan/gram, support at 780.0 and 774.5 yuan/gram; Silver futures AG2506 are likely to oscillate widely, with resistance at 8296 and 8329 yuan/kg, support at 8159 and 8113 yuan/kg [3]. - **Base Metal Futures**: Copper futures CU2506 are likely to oscillate widely, with resistance at 78200 and 78600 yuan/ton, support at 77600 and 77200 yuan/ton; Aluminum futures AL2506 are likely to oscillate strongly, attacking resistance at 20100 and 20190 yuan/ton, with support at 19930 and 19880 yuan/ton; Alumina futures AO2509 are likely to oscillate weakly, with support at 2650 and 2600 yuan/ton, resistance at 2770 and 2787 yuan/ton [3]. - **Other Commodity Futures**: Industrial silicon, polysilicon, lithium carbonate, rebar, iron ore, crude oil, PTA, PVC, and soybean meal futures are likely to oscillate weakly; Glass and soda ash futures are likely to oscillate weakly [1]. 3.2 Macro - news and Trading Tips - **Domestic News**: President Xi Jinping emphasized Shanghai's role in building an international science and technology innovation center; the Ministry of Foreign Affairs responded to the US Treasury Secretary's remarks on the tariff war; the Ministry of Commerce commented on Boeing's situation; the central financial institutions supported Shanghai's construction of an international financial center; the central bank increased capital injection to ensure market liquidity; the National Development and Reform Commission and other departments carried out a market access barrier cleanup campaign; the Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security proposed reform measures; the central bank mobilized the implementation of the financial "five - article" statistical system [9]. - **International News**: The US Secretary of Commerce mentioned trade agreements and tariff policies; the US Treasury Secretary planned to have talks and proposed tax - related measures; the "helmsman" of the Norwegian sovereign wealth fund warned of global economic risks; global investors sold ESG sustainable funds; US economic data such as job vacancies, consumer confidence, and housing prices were released; euro - zone economic data such as industrial and economic sentiment were released [11]. 3.3 Commodity Futures - related Information - **Domestic Futures Night Session**: Most domestic commodity futures closed lower at night, with energy - chemical products, black series, and some agricultural products falling, while some base metals had mixed performance [13]. - **International Futures**: International precious metal futures and oil futures closed lower on April 29, 2025; London base metals mostly fell; Chicago Board of Trade agricultural product futures closed lower [14]. - **Industry News**: The China National Coal Association called for regulating coal imports; the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs issued a plan for the livestock - breeding grain - saving action; the World Bank predicted commodity prices; US API crude oil inventories increased; the US dollar index rose [15]. 3.4 Futures Market Analysis and Outlook - **Stock Index Futures**: On April 29, 2025, major stock index futures contracts showed different trends, with some falling slightly and some having short - term rebounds, but most faced resistance and support levels [17]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: On April 29, 2025, treasury bond futures closed higher across the board, with the ten - year and thirty - year contracts showing strong upward trends, and the central bank conducted reverse - repurchase operations to inject capital [40]. - **Other Futures**: Gold, silver, copper, aluminum, and other futures also had their respective trends on April 29, 2025, and their future trends were predicted, including support and resistance levels [46].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 资讯早班车 资讯早班车-2025-04-30 一、 宏观数据速览 | 发布日期 | 指标日期 | 指标名称 | 单位 | 当期值 | 上期值 | 去年同期值 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 20250416 | 2025/03 | GDP:不变价:当季同比 | % | 5.40 | 5.40 | 5.30 | | 20250331 | 2025/03 | 制造业 PMI | % | 50.50 | 50.20 | 50.80 | | 20250331 | 2025/03 | 非制造业 PMI:商务活 | % | 50.80 | 50.40 | 53.00 | | | | 动 | | | | | | 20250401 | 2025/03 | 财新 PMI:制造业 | % | 51.20 | 50.80 | 51.10 | | 20250403 | 2025/03 | 财新 PMI:服务业经营 | % | 51.90 | 51.40 | 52.70 | | | | 活动指数 | | | | | | ...