1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - There is no information about the overall industry investment rating in the provided reports. 2. Core Views of the Report - **豆粕**: Short - term adjustment. The US soybean export outlook is questioned, and domestic soybean meal is affected by the external market, expected to run weakly. Pay attention to the technical stabilization near the previous low [1][3]. - **菜粕**: Short - term adjustment. It follows the trend of soybean meal, with no strong driving factors. Pay attention to the follow - up progress of China - Canada trade [1][6]. - **棕榈 oil**: Short - term consolidation. The market expects inventory accumulation, and pay attention to the data and the opportunity for the market to stabilize and turn bullish [1][8]. - **豆油**: Short - term bullish shock. Domestic soybean oil inventory has decreased slightly, and pay attention to the weather in South American soybean - growing areas and the boost from the palm oil side [1]. - **菜油**: Range shock. There is import diversification, and pay attention to the technical support at the previous low [1]. - **棉花**: Cautiously bullish. The cost - end support is strengthened, but there are still pressure from high inventory and hedging. Consider buying on dips and focus on the medium - to - long - term warming - up opportunities after the supply pressure is digested [1][12]. - **红枣**: Short - term rebound. Although there is high - inventory pressure, the short - term rebound opportunity can be concerned [1][16]. - **生猪**: Short - term rebound. The 01 contract needs to avoid short - term long - position risks, and the 03 contract can pay attention to short - selling opportunities on rebounds and the 3 - 5 reverse spread opportunity [1][19]. 3. Summaries According to Different Varieties 3.1 Soybean Meal - **Inventory**: As of December 5, 2025, the national port soybean inventory was 937 million tons, a decrease of 20.60 million tons from last week; the soybean inventory of 125 oil mills was 715.52 million tons, a decrease of 18.44 million tons from last week, a decrease of 2.51%. The soybean meal inventory was 116.19 million tons, a decrease of 4.13 million tons from last week, a decrease of 3.43% [3]. - **Price**: The futures price of the main contract closed at 2,763 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.54% from the previous day; the national average spot price was 3,090 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.56% from the previous day [2]. 3.2 Rapeseed Meal - **Inventory**: As of December 5, the coastal rapeseed inventory was 0 million tons, the rapeseed meal inventory was 0.02 million tons, an increase of 0.01 million tons from last week, and the unexecuted contract was 0 million tons [6]. - **Price**: The futures price of the main contract closed at 2,317 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.07% from the previous day; the national average spot price was 2,469.47 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.21% from the previous day [4]. 3.3 Palm Oil - **Inventory**: As of December 5, 2025, the national key - area commercial inventory was 68.37 million tons, an increase of 3.02 million tons from last week, an increase of 4.62% [8]. - **Price**: The futures price of the main contract closed at 8,648 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.67% from the previous day; the national average price was 8,653 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.09% from the previous day [7]. 3.4 Cotton - **International Situation**: In the US, the new cotton harvest progress reached 79%, and 123.7 million tons of new cotton have been inspected. In India, the new cotton daily listing volume is 16,000 - 20,000 tons. In Brazil, the 2025 cotton processing progress is 73.87%, and the non - main production areas have started sowing the 2026 new cotton [10]. - **Domestic Situation**: The new cotton picking is basically completed, the inspection volume exceeds 4.74 million tons, and the sales progress is fast. The national commercial inventory has increased to 4.46 million tons, and the Xinjiang commercial inventory has increased to 3.61 million tons. The demand shows seasonal recovery, and the textile and clothing export decline in November has slowed down [11]. - **Price**: The futures price of the main contract CF2601 closed at 13,740 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.07% from the previous day; the CCIndex (3218B) spot price was 14,999 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.07% from the previous day [9]. 3.5 Red Dates - **Supply**: The acquisition in some areas is coming to an end, and the prices in most areas are weakening. The inventory of 36 sample enterprises has increased to 13,910 tons, 270 tons lower than the same period [15]. - **Demand**: The trading in the Cui'erzhuang market is mainly new products, and the downstream purchasing enthusiasm has increased. The demand in the Ruyifang market is average [15]. - **Price**: The futures price of the main contract CJ2601 closed at 9,235 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.60% from the previous day; the retail price of general - grade red dates in Aksu was 5.15 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous day [13]. 3.6 Live Pigs - **Supply**: In the short - term, the overall planned slaughter in December increases by 3.2%. In the medium - term, the number of new - born piglets in November decreased. In the long - term, the number of sows capable of reproduction decreased to 39.9 million in October [18]. - **Demand**: With the cooling, the activities of curing and enema in the southwest region increase, and the slaughter enterprise's operating rate, pork - grain ratio, and fresh - sales rate stop falling and rebound [18]. - **Price**: The futures price of the main contract Ih2603 closed at 11,450 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.57% from the previous day; the national average slaughter price was 11,330 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.53% from the previous day [17].

一、研究观点 农产品日报（2025 年 12 月 10 日） | 品种 | 点评 周二，玉米近月 2601 合约加速减仓，期价延续调整走势。当日，玉米 1 月合约 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 减仓 10 万手，3 月合约持仓跟随调整，玉米 5、7 月合约面临技术压力位，期价 呈现调整表现。周初华北地区玉米价格稳中偏强，华北地区基层农户售粮积极性 | | | | 整体依然偏慢，货源供应按照价格变化有所调整。企业以刚需采购为主，根据到 | | | 玉米 | 货量灵活调整价格。销区市场玉米价格整体偏弱运行。玉米期货盘面高位回落， | 震荡下行 | | | 东北产区价格松动，销区港口贸易商受到到货成本变化的影响，加上下游销售利 | | | | 润较低，高价采购玉米的意愿一般，港口报价继续窄幅下探。技术上，玉米 3、 | | | | 5 月合约处于 5 月中旬形成价格压力带，期价上行遇阻，动力不足。短期来看， | | | | 玉米呈现技术调整要求，短线期价或将延续调整表现。 周二，CBOT 大豆跌至一个月低位，受出口担忧及南美丰产预期打压。阿根廷下 | | | | 调大豆等产品出口关税 ...

1. Report's Industry Investment Ratings - The investment strategy for the soybean meal market is cautiously bearish [4] - The investment strategy for the corn market is neutral [7] 2. Core Views of the Report - The current supply - demand pattern of soybean meal has not changed, with high oil mill operating rates and continuous inventory accumulation of soybeans and soybean meal. After policy stability, there is no sudden news to stimulate the market, so the overall soybean meal price fluctuates. Attention should be paid to the import of US soybeans and the weather in the new - season South American production areas [3] - In the domestic corn market, the supply in the Northeast production area is currently tight due to farmers' reluctance to sell, but the selling progress is expected to accelerate. The demand side, including deep - processing and feed enterprises, has inventory replenishment needs, and feed enterprises' demand is rigid [6] 3. Summaries According to Related Contents 3.1 Soybean Meal Market 3.1.1 Market News and Key Data - Futures: The closing price of the soybean meal 2605 contract was 2763 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton (-0.54%) from the previous day; the closing price of the rapeseed meal 2605 contract was 2317 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan/ton (-1.07%) from the previous day [1] - Spot: The spot price of soybean meal in Tianjin was 3050 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton; in Jiangsu, it was 3000 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton; in Guangdong, it was 3000 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton. The spot price of rapeseed meal in Fujian was 2510 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton [1] - Export Data: Brazil exported 970,000 tons of soybeans in the first week of December 2025, with a daily average export volume of 194,000 tons, a 103% increase from the daily average export volume in December of the previous year. As of December 4, 2025, the US soybean export inspection volume was 1.018 million tons [2] 3.1.2 Market Analysis - The supply - demand pattern has not changed. High oil mill operating rates and inventory accumulation lead to a stable soybean meal price in a fluctuating state. The high cost of imported US soybeans requires attention to import and South American weather conditions [3] 3.2 Corn Market 3.2.1 Market News and Key Data - Futures: The closing price of the corn 2601 contract was 2236 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan/ton (-1.11%) from the previous day; the closing price of the corn starch 2511 contract was 2522 yuan/ton, down 27 yuan/ton (-1.06%) from the previous day [4] - Spot: The spot price of corn in Liaoning was 2150 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; the spot price of corn starch in Jilin was 2650 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [4] - Export Data: As of December 4, 2025, the US corn export inspection volume was 1.452 million tons. Brazil exported 1.728 million tons of corn in the first week of December 2025, with a daily average export volume of 346,000 tons, a 70% increase from the daily average export volume in December of the previous year [4] 3.2.2 Market Analysis - On the supply side in the domestic market, the selling progress in the Northeast is fast overall, but farmers' reluctance to sell has led to a tight supply. The selling progress is expected to accelerate. On the demand side, deep - processing and feed enterprises have inventory replenishment needs, and the demand from feed enterprises is rigid [6]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 宝城期货豆类油脂早报（2025 年 12 月 10 日） 品种观点参考 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货农产品板块 品种：豆粕（M） 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡偏弱 核心逻辑：近期豆类市场呈现"近强远弱"格局，豆粕 2605 及远月合约均大幅下挫，期价承压下行。 主要受到国际与国内双重利空因素的压制。美豆期价震荡下行，对国内豆类市场的支撑减弱。美豆期 价走弱的核心原因在于中国采购进度持续低于市场预期，未能给美豆出口提供支撑，同时南美大豆丰 产的预期持续发酵，进一步加剧了全球大豆供应宽松的格局。市场普遍预期即将发布的美国农业部月 度报告将上调美豆期末库存，令美豆价格在报告前维持偏弱运行态势。国内市场同样面临压力。国家 专业研究·创造价值 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall agricultural market shows a mixed trend, with most varieties expected to be in a state of shock, and some varieties showing a shock - weakening trend. The future market trend depends on factors such as supply and demand, weather, policies, and international trade [1][5][6]. 3. Summary by Variety 3.1 Oils and Fats - **Viewpoint**: Yesterday, it continued to fluctuate weakly. The market is affected by factors such as concerns about US soybean export demand, favorable weather conditions in South American soybean - producing areas, and the expected release of a relatively mild and loose signal by the Federal Reserve. The market is expected to be weakly volatile, and attention should be paid to the MPOB report [5]. - **Logic**: On the macro - level, the market expects the Federal Reserve to release a relatively mild and loose signal, and the US dollar rebounded on Monday. Crude oil prices fell due to the resumption of Iraqi oil supply and the progress of Russia - Ukraine negotiations. On the industrial side, the precipitation in South American soybean - producing areas has improved recently. The domestic soybean inventory is high, and the soybean crushing volume of oil mills is large, so the de - stocking speed of domestic soybean oil is expected to be slow. For palm oil, the production in Malaysia in November is expected to decline slightly month - on - month, and the exports are expected to decline. For rapeseed oil, the domestic rapeseed supply is currently tight, but the supply is expected to increase in the later stage [5]. 3.2 Protein Meal - **Viewpoint**: The double - meal market continues to be weak. In the short term, the price of imported soybeans is expected to decline slightly, and the basis is stable. In the medium - term, the procurement progress of imported soybeans in January is 56%, mainly by the state reserve, and the performance of rapeseed meal is suppressed by the expected import of Australian rapeseed. In the long - term, the normalcy of South American weather determines the price trend and amplitude of soybean meal [6]. - **Logic**: Internationally, US soybeans are still dominated by Chinese procurement and South American weather. Domestically, in the short - term, the auction of imported soybeans is imminent, the spot price is slightly lowered, and the basis is stable. The soybean inventory is high, and the seasonal de - stocking of soybean meal is slow. In the medium - term, the procurement of imported soybeans in January is mainly by the state reserve, and the commercial procurement is absent due to crushing losses. The expected import of Australian rapeseed suppresses the performance of rapeseed meal. In the long - term, South American weather is the key factor for the price of soybean meal [6]. 3.3 Corn/Starch - **Viewpoint**: The spot price fluctuates, and the futures price continues to decline. In the short - term, it is expected to have a phased correction, and before the inventory of the middle and lower reaches is effectively repaired, the price is likely to fluctuate [1][7][8]. - **Logic**: The domestic corn price shows a differentiated trend. The prices of deep - processing enterprises in the Northeast and North China are mainly stable, with some local slight increases or decreases. The ports generally follow the futures price and continue to decline. Due to the news of regulatory reserve auctions and the futures price reaching a high - level integer mark, the market sentiment has changed, and the futures price has fallen. The increase in the willingness of grass - roots traders and drying towers to sell goods in the Northeast has led to a phased increase in the market's circulating grain sources. In North China, the inventory of deep - processing enterprises is low, and the pre - price drop has triggered the grass - roots' reluctance to sell. In the southern sales areas, the supply - demand contradiction will be alleviated to some extent in the next two weeks, and the futures price is expected to have a phased correction [1][7][8]. 3.4 Pigs - **Viewpoint**: Concerns about the epidemic drive the price to rebound. In the short - term, the price runs in a low - level range. In the long - term, the supply pressure is expected to gradually weaken, showing a pattern of "weak reality + strong expectation" [9]. - **Logic**: Recently, the epidemic has shown a trend of increasing month - on - month, but the impact is still limited year - on - year. As the curing season approaches, the market sentiment has warmed up, but the space is limited. In terms of supply, in the short - term, the completion rate of large - scale farms' slaughter in November was slightly lower than 100%, and there was a small amount of inventory carried over. In the medium - term, the production capacity of sows in the first half of 2025 was still at a high level, and the number of new - born piglets continued to increase from January to October, so the slaughter volume of commercial pigs is expected to be in excess until April 2026. In the long - term, the production capacity of sows began to decline in the third quarter of 2025, and the number of new - born piglets in November 2025 decreased month - on - month, so the supply pressure of commercial pigs is expected to ease after May 2026. In terms of demand, the ratio of pork to feed has increased month - on - month. In terms of inventory, the average slaughter weight has continued to increase month - on - month [9]. 3.5 Natural Rubber - **Viewpoint**: The sideways shock trend remains unchanged. The price is expected to continue to maintain a narrow - range shock, and it is difficult to have a trend - like market unilaterally [10][13]. - **Logic**: Yesterday, natural rubber continued to fluctuate. The 15,000 - yuan mark has certain support. At present, there is no strong driving force. The downstream buying is light recently, and the market sentiment is bearish. The impact of the recent floods in Thailand on rubber tapping is limited, and the raw material prices have dropped significantly in the past two days. Fundamentally, the overseas supply is increasing seasonally, and the firm raw material prices support the futures price to some extent, but there is still a certain downward pressure. The demand has not changed significantly in the past two weeks, and the downstream purchasing sentiment is still okay after the price drop [10][13]. 3.6 Synthetic Rubber - **Viewpoint**: The futures price maintains a shock pattern. There is no upward driving force for the time being, and there is support from natural rubber below, so the futures price maintains a range shock [14]. - **Logic**: BR continued to fluctuate yesterday. The hype sentiment about the news of butadiene exports last week has basically been digested. Considering the relatively stable recent trading volume of butadiene and the limited downward space of natural rubber prices, the BR futures price is unlikely to drop significantly for the time being. The price of butadiene has rebounded after falling. Although the production and inventory have increased, some buyers have entered the market after the price dropped to the annual low, and the trading atmosphere has improved. However, as the price rises, the enthusiasm of sellers to ship has increased, and some high - price transactions have been blocked [14]. 3.7 Cotton - **Viewpoint**: There is resistance to short - term breakthrough. In the long - term, the valuation is low, and it is expected to fluctuate strongly. It is advisable to buy on dips [15]. - **Logic**: On the supply side, the expected output of new cotton in Xinjiang is 7.3 - 7.5 million tons, an increase of 0.6 - 0.8 million tons year - on - year, and the new cotton is continuously on the market, and the cumulative inspection volume is faster than the same period in previous years. On the demand side, after the "Double 11" orders ended, the downstream demand decreased seasonally, but there is rigid procurement support. On the inventory side, due to the concentrated listing of new cotton, the commercial inventory is in the process of accumulating, and the demand for cotton is good. The speculation of warehouse receipts has boosted the 01 contract to be relatively strong recently. However, after the futures price is higher than the hedging break - even line, the enterprise's willingness to hedge increases, and the upward pressure gradually increases, suppressing the rebound height. In the long - term, the domestic market is expected to have a slight inventory accumulation or a tight balance in the new year, and as the inventory enters the de - stocking period, the upward pressure on cotton prices will be reduced [15]. 3.8 Sugar - **Viewpoint**: The lower support is strong, and the sugar price rebounds slightly. In the long - term, it is expected to fluctuate weakly. It is advisable to short on rebounds, and there is support at 5,300 yuan/ton in the short - term [16]. - **Logic**: In the long - term, the domestic and international sugar prices are likely to continue the "weakly volatile" pattern. The core logic is that the global sugar market in the 25/26 crushing season has turned to a significant surplus, with the four major sugar - producing countries of Brazil, India, Thailand, and China increasing production simultaneously, and the new supply continues to expand. After entering the new crushing season in the Northern Hemisphere, the supply is becoming a reality. In the short - term, the downward space of the 01 contract is limited, and there is strong support around 5,300 yuan/ton, but in the long - term, the sugar price is still under pressure [16]. 3.9 Pulp - **Viewpoint**: After reaching the pressure level, it falls back, and the wide - range shock pattern continues. The futures price is expected to show a wide - range shock with a slightly rising trend. It is advisable to allocate more on dips and wait and see at high levels [16][17]. - **Logic**: Last week, the pulp futures price rose rapidly from the bottom of the range to near the top. In the recent three trading days, it has continued to fall. There were some positive news during the rise, such as the increase in the US dollar - denominated price, the shutdown of pulp mills, and the significant decline in port inventory. The current game point is whether the new positive factors can boost the price to effectively break through the upper edge of the shock range. Fundamentally, the price increase of broad - leaf pulp can be passed on downstream, and the narrowing of the price difference between needle - leaf and broad - leaf pulp supports the bottom of the needle - leaf pulp and the futures price. The supply reduction expectation caused by the shutdown of pulp mills is offset by the high inventory of pulp mills, but the actual actions of pulp mills increase the probability of the increase in the US dollar - denominated price of needle - leaf pulp. The pressure at the upper edge of the range comes from the fact that the current futures price allows the US dollar - denominated price and the spot price to be at par or to conduct risk - free hedging on the futures market and form warehouse receipts. The liquidity of the needle - leaf pulp spot market is relatively abundant, and the sales are not smooth, which increases the possibility of warehouse receipt registration and becomes the price pressure [16][17]. 3.10 Double - Glue Paper - **Viewpoint**: The demand is weak, and the weak trend continues. In the short - term, it is mainly weakly stable, and in the medium - term, the paper enterprises may adjust the market supply and demand by reducing prices or production [18][20]. - **Logic**: Recently, the double - glue paper futures price has continued to be weak. Although the cost side has support, the demand is weak, and the implementation of the paper mills' price increase letters is very limited. At the beginning of December, some paper enterprises raised their quotes, and some dealers in the northern market followed up slightly. The paper enterprises' production is generally stable, and the inventory pressure of some paper enterprises has increased. The current publication orders have not been picked up in a concentrated manner, the social demand in the southern market is weak, and the trading atmosphere of the base paper is average, and the paper price is basically stable. The upstream wood pulp price is mainly rising, but the increase of double - glue paper is less than that of raw materials [18][20]. 3.11 Logs - **Viewpoint**: It lacks the upward momentum and fluctuates in a narrow range. The overall market pattern is loose, and it is advisable to pay attention to the opportunity of going long on the far - month contract at a low price [21]. - **Logic**: Yesterday, the log futures price rose and then fell back. The fundamentals have improved to some extent, but only provide strong support at the bottom, and the upward momentum is still lacking. Recently, the supply may be alleviated. The shipment from New Zealand declined last week, and it is expected to decline further from December to January. There is a rumor that there is a quarantine problem with Japanese cryptomeria, and attention should be paid to the follow - up development. In the domestic market, the spot price in the Jiangsu market has declined slightly, and the demand support is insufficient. The 01 contract has no clear upward or downward driving force in the short - term, and the 03 contract has relatively strong game characteristics. Considering the current low overall valuation of logs, as it gradually enters the delivery month, under the background that the weakening of the 01 contract drags down the 03 contract, it is advisable to go long on the 03 contract at a low price or consider the 1 - 3 reverse spread opportunity [21].

每经AI快讯，当地时间12月9日，芝加哥期货交易所（CBOT）农产品期货主力合约收盘多数下跌，大 豆期货跌0.55%报1087.75美分/蒲式耳，玉米期货涨0.96%报448.00美分/蒲式耳，小麦期货跌0.09%报 534.25美分/蒲式耳。 （文章来源：每日经济新闻） ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Paper pulp: ★★★ - Sugar: ★★★ - Apple: ★★★ - Timber: ★★★ - Natural rubber: ★★★ - 20 - number rubber: ★★★ - Butadiene rubber: ★★☆ [4] Core Views - The cotton market has strong support from low commercial inventories and stable demand, but short - term upside is limited. Sugar prices are expected to remain weak. Apple market has increased long - short divergence, and the focus is on de - stocking. Natural rubber supply is decreasing, and synthetic rubber supply is stable. Pulp prices may fluctuate in the medium - term. Timber prices are supported by low inventories. [1][2][3][5][6][7] Summary by Commodity Cotton & Cotton Yarn - Zhengzhou cotton futures have been fluctuating recently. Although new cotton production has increased significantly this year, commercial inventories are not high and sales progress is fast, providing support. Demand is stable in the off - season, and the focus is on the pre - Spring Festival demand peak. Spinning mills' raw material demand is resilient, and finished product inventories are low. The industry can consider hedging opportunities, and the current operation is to wait and see. As of November 30, national cotton commercial inventory was 4.6836 million tons, and as of December 4, the cumulative processing volume was 5.794 million tons. [1] Sugar - Overnight, US sugar fluctuated. Brazil's sugar production remains high. In the Northern Hemisphere, India and Thailand have started crushing, and sugar production is expected to increase. In China, Zhengzhou sugar is weak. In November, Guangxi's sugar production was slow, but the 25/26 sugar - making season in Guangxi is expected to have a relatively good output. Overall, sugar prices are expected to be weak. [2] Apple - Futures prices are fluctuating at high levels. Spot prices are stable. Apple sales are in the off - season, and cold - storage transactions are average. As of December 5, national cold - storage apple inventory was 7.2438 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 13.24%. The market's trading logic has shifted to demand, and the focus is on future de - stocking. [3] 20 - number Rubber, Natural Rubber & Synthetic Rubber - Natural rubber RU futures prices fell slightly, 20 - number rubber NR futures prices fluctuated, and butadiene rubber BR futures prices declined. Global natural rubber supply is entering the decreasing period, and synthetic rubber supply is stable. Natural rubber inventories are increasing, and synthetic rubber inventories are decreasing. The cost has strong support, and the market sentiment is cautious. Consider cross - variety arbitrage opportunities. [5] Paper Pulp - Paper pulp futures rose slightly. As of December 4, 2025, the inventory of mainstream Chinese pulp ports was 2.101 million tons, a decrease of 71,000 tons from the previous period. In November, China imported 3.246 million tons of pulp, a year - on - year increase of 440,000 tons. The mid - term trend may be range - bound. [6] Timber - Futures prices fluctuated. Spot prices in Rizhao decreased by 10 yuan. Supply prices decreased, and short - term arrivals will decrease. As of December 5, the average daily outbound volume of 13 national ports was 66,600 cubic meters, a week - on - week increase of 5,300 cubic meters. The total national port log inventory was 2.88 million cubic meters, a decrease of 90,000 cubic meters from the previous period. Low inventories support prices, and the current operation is to wait and see. [7]

研究所 农产品研发报告 花生日报 2025 年 12 月 9 日 | 第一部分 | | | | 数据 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 花生数据日报 | | | | | | | 2025/12/9 | | 期货盘面 | | | | | | | | | 期货 | 收盘价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量 | 增减幅 | 持仓量 | 增减幅 | | PK604 | 8012 | 40 | 0.50% | 67,311 | 3.27% | 28,052 | 4.02% | | PK510 | 8222 | 36 | 0.44% | 66 | -10.81% | 765 | 4.37% | | PK601 | 8070 | 14 | 0.17% | 22,817 | -29.90% | 57,469 | -10.80% | | 现货与基差 | | | | | | | | | 现货 | 河南南阳 | 山东济宁 | 山东临沂 | 日照花生粕 | 日照豆粕 | 花生油 | 日照一级豆油 | | 今日报价 | 7800 | 8200 | 8 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views 2.1 Oil and Fat Industry - Malaysian BMD crude palm oil futures are in a volatile adjustment. There are concerns about inventory growth and weak December exports. It is oscillating around 4,100 ringgit, waiting for the MPOB supply - demand report. Domestic Dalian palm oil futures may weaken under the influence of Malaysian palm oil, with a possible decline to seek support at 8,500 yuan. - The market expects an increase in the US soybean ending inventory, which pressures CBOT soybeans and affects CBOT soybean oil. The decline of BMD palm oil also drags down CBOT soybean oil. Domestically, the decline of international related varieties has a greater impact on Dalian soybean oil. Factory开机率 has decreased, but the inventory change is not significant due to limited downstream demand [1]. 2.2 Pig Industry - Spot prices show signs of stabilizing and rebounding. Although large - scale enterprises still have significant sales pressure, the increasing demand for southern curing and the potential entry of secondary fattening may support prices. However, the overall large - scale production increase pattern remains unchanged. - The futures market is affected by a positive macro - atmosphere. Bullish funds are actively entering the market, and the futures may maintain a slightly stronger trend in the short term [3]. 2.3 Meal and Bean Industry - The US soybean price is in a correction, and China's policy - based procurement is uncertain. The domestic meal market remains in a loose pattern, and the single - side price is under pressure. The key lies in whether US soybean purchases can meet the domestic arrival volume in March. The market outlook is weak, but the basis may strengthen [6]. 2.4 Sugar Industry - ICE raw sugar futures slightly increase, but the sufficient supply and weak demand in the spot market suppress the upward movement of futures prices. Brazil's sugar exports in early December increased. India's sugar production has increased significantly, and the overall raw sugar price is in a bearish pattern. The domestic sugar price is expected to be in a volatile and weak trend [9]. 2.5 Corn and Corn Starch Industry - In the northeast region, the price is stable due to the support of inventory replenishment and policy procurement. In the north - central region, prices are firm due to the shortage of high - quality grains. On the demand side, some deep - processing enterprises are in deficit, and feed enterprises have low enthusiasm for long - term inventory building. The futures price may decline slightly in the short term, but the decline may be limited [11]. 2.6 Cotton Industry - ICE cotton futures closed lower. Traders are cautious before the USDA monthly supply - demand report. US cotton export sales increased significantly in the week ending November 6. Domestically, the hedging pressure on Zhengzhou cotton is increasing, but the rigid demand from the industrial downstream and the good profit situation of textile enterprises may limit the downward space. The cotton price may fluctuate within a range in the short term [15]. 2.7 Egg Industry - The supply side still has significant pressure, with a high inventory of laying hens and slow decline. The demand side lacks obvious positive factors, but the positive market sentiment provides some support. Egg prices are expected to be weak with limited downward space [19]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Oil and Fat Industry 3.1.1 Price Changes - **Soybean Oil**: The spot price in Jiangsu remained unchanged at 8,600 yuan, the futures price (Y2601) decreased by 0.44% to 8,230 yuan, and the basis increased by 10.78% to 370 yuan. - **Palm Oil**: The spot price in Guangdong decreased by 0.57% to 8,690 yuan, the futures price (P2601) decreased by 0.73% to 8,706 yuan, and the basis increased by 46.67% to - 16 yuan. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The spot price in Jiangsu decreased by 1.00% to 8,960 yuan, the futures price (OI601) decreased by 1.21% to 9,502 yuan, and the basis increased by 4.30% to 388 yuan [1]. 3.1.2 Spread Changes - **Inter - delivery Spread**: The soybean oil 01 - 05 spread increased by 6.45% to 198 yuan, the palm oil 01 - 05 spread decreased by 50.00% to 4 yuan, and the rapeseed oil 01 - 05 spread increased by 8.06% to 228 yuan. - **Cross - variety Spread**: The spot soybean - palm oil spread increased by 35.71% to - 90 yuan, the 2601 soybean - palm oil spread increased by 1.76% to - 670 yuan, the spot rapeseed - soybean oil spread decreased by 7.19% to 1,290 yuan, and the 2601 rapeseed - soybean oil spread decreased by 5.92% to 1,272 yuan [1]. 3.2 Pig Industry 3.2.1 Futures Indicators - The price of the main contract of live pigs 2605 increased by 1.27% to 11,955 yuan/ton, and the price of 2603 increased by 2.71% to 11,385 yuan/ton. The 3 - 5 spread increased by 20.83% to - 570 yuan. The main contract positions increased by 81.80% to 151,512, and the number of warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 108 [3]. 3.2.2 Spot Indicators - Spot prices in different regions showed mixed trends. The daily slaughter volume of sample points increased by 0.07% to 217,041 heads, the weekly white - strip price remained unchanged at 18.21 yuan, the weekly piglet price remained unchanged at 17.00 yuan/kg, the weekly sow price remained unchanged at 32.47 yuan, the weekly slaughter weight increased by 0.46% to 129.82 kg, the weekly self - breeding profit decreased by 13.31% to - 168 yuan/head, the weekly purchased - pig breeding profit decreased by 4.25% to - 259 yuan/head, and the monthly fertile sow inventory decreased by 1.12% to 3,990 million heads [3]. 3.3 Meal and Bean Industry 3.3.1 Price Changes - **Soybean Meal**: The spot price in Jiangsu decreased by 0.65% to 3,040 yuan, and the futures price (M2605) decreased by 1.52% to 2,778 yuan. - **Rapeseed Meal**: The futures price (RM2605) decreased by 1.47% to 2,342 yuan. - **Soybean**: The warehouse receipt of Harbin soybeans remained unchanged at 15,766 [6]. 3.3.2 Spread Changes - The soybean meal 05 - 09 spread decreased by 2.61% to - 3 yuan, the rapeseed meal 05 - 09 spread increased by 4.35% to - 66 yuan, the spot oil - meal ratio increased by 0.66% to 2.83, and the 2605 soybean - rapeseed meal spread decreased by 1.80% to 436 yuan [6]. 3.4 Sugar Industry 3.4.1 Futures Market - The price of sugar 2601 increased by 0.64% to 5,337 yuan/ton, the price of 2605 increased by 0.21% to 5,244 yuan/ton, and the ICE raw sugar main contract increased by 0.07% to 14.83 cents/pound. The 1 - 5 spread increased by 32.86% to 93 yuan/ton. The main contract positions decreased by 8.69% to 289,716, the number of warehouse receipts increased to 181, and the effective forecast increased by 714.21% to 1,490 [9]. 3.4.2 Spot Market - Spot prices in Nanning remained unchanged at 5,360 yuan, and in Kunming decreased by 0.37% to 5,320 yuan. The basis in Nanning decreased by 8.66% to 116 yuan, and in Kunming decreased by 28.97% to 76 yuan. The import price of Brazilian sugar (within quota) decreased by 0.37% to 4,079 yuan, and (outside quota) decreased by 0.39% to 5,168 yuan [9]. 3.4.3 Industry Situation - National sugar production increased by 12.03% to 1,116.21 million tons, sales increased by 9.17% to 1,048.00 million tons, the national sales ratio decreased by 2.60% to 93.90%, and the industrial inventory decreased by 41.20% to 68.21 million tons. Sugar imports increased by 37.50% to 55.00 million tons [9]. 3.5 Corn and Corn Starch Industry 3.5.1 Corn - The price of corn 2601 decreased by 1.48% to 2,261 yuan, the basis increased by 97.14% to 69 yuan, the 1 - 5 spread decreased by 144.44% to - 4 yuan. The northern - southern trade profit decreased by 20.41% to 39 yuan, the import profit decreased by 15.13% to 314 yuan, the number of remaining vehicles in Shandong deep - processing enterprises in the morning decreased by 13.64% to 399, the positions decreased by 2.25% to 2,354,124, and the number of warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 57,705 [11]. 3.5.2 Corn Starch - The price of corn starch 2601 decreased by 1.51% to 2,549 yuan, the basis increased by 1950.00% to 41 yuan, the 1 - 5 spread decreased by 40.74% to - 38 yuan, the 01 spread between starch and corn decreased by 1.71% to 288 yuan, the Shandong starch profit decreased by 25.00% to 6 yuan, the positions decreased by 2.52% to 333,585 [11]. 3.6 Cotton Industry 3.6.1 Futures Market - The price of cotton 2605 increased by 0.04% to 13,725 yuan/ton, the price of 2601 remained unchanged at 13,750 yuan/ton, the ICE US cotton main contract decreased by 0.33% to 63.74 cents/pound. The 5 - 1 spread increased by 16.67% to - 25 yuan. The main contract positions decreased by 1.75% to 489,062 hands, the number of warehouse receipts increased by 1.62% to 2,753, and the effective forecast increased by 8.02% to 3,004 [15]. 3.6.2 Spot Market - The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B decreased by 0.17% to 14,847 yuan, the CC Index of 3128B decreased by 0.09% to 15,009 yuan, and the FC Index of M: 1% decreased by 0.08% to 12,843 yuan [15]. 3.6.3 Industry Situation - Commercial inventory increased by 28.7% to 468.36 million tons, industrial inventory increased by 0.9% to 93.96 million tons, imports decreased by 10.0% to 9.00 million tons, and the bonded - area inventory decreased by 1.8% to 32.20 million tons [15]. 3.7 Egg Industry 3.7.1 Futures and Spot Prices - The price of the egg 01 contract increased by 1.15% to 3,153 yuan/500KG, and the price of 02 increased by 0.80% to 3,038 yuan/500KG. The egg - producing area price increased by 0.41% to 2.98 yuan/FT, the basis decreased by 15.45% to - 178 yuan/500KG, and the 1 - 2 spread increased by 11.65% to 115 yuan [19]. 3.7.2 Related Indicators - The price of laying hens increased by 5.56% to 2.85 yuan/feather, the price of culled chickens increased by 1.58% to 3.86 yuan/FT, the egg - feed ratio increased by 3.90% to 2.40, and the breeding profit increased by 20.35% to - 22.62 yuan/feather [19].

农产品日报（2025 年 12 月 9 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 周一，玉米减仓下行，玉米近月 2601 合约减仓调整，资金向 3 月和 5 月合约转 | 震荡下行 | | | 移。周一，在玉米 1 月合约下跌拖累下，远期合约跟随下跌，期价呈现高位调整 | | | | 表现。现货市场方面，周末华北地区深加工企业门前到货量一般，玉米价格稳中 | | | | 偏强运行。东北地区玉米价格持续上涨，市场短期看涨情绪较高，但华北地区整 | | | | 体有其固有的节奏，目前农户售粮节奏依然保持相对缓慢，市场供应变现为阶段 | | | 玉米 | 性的宽松和收紧，深加工企业玉米价格维持窄幅调整，变动幅度有限。周末销区 | | | | 市场玉米价格基本维持稳定。上周经过连续涨价后，销区下游企业采购力继续减 | | | | 弱，高价玉米成交一般，市场多维持观望心态。周末整体市场无较大波动，上涨 | | | | 情绪减弱。技术上，玉米 3、5 月合约处于 5 月中旬形成价格压力带，期价上行 | | | | 遇阻，动力不足。短期来看，玉米呈现技术调整要求， ...