Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core View of the Report - The market divergence is concentrated in the game between "supply contraction expectation" and "weak demand reality". The short - term price is easily affected by policy news and capital sentiment, showing an obvious wide - range oscillation pattern. For nickel, the high inventory of refined nickel suppresses the price, but the rising cost of nickel ore and ferronickel provides some support. For stainless steel, the core contradiction is the balance between cost and demand [1][3]. Group 3: Nickel Variety Market Analysis - On January 29, 2026, the main contract 2603 of Shanghai nickel opened at 145,240 yuan/ton and closed at 147,470 yuan/ton, a change of 1.79% compared with the previous trading day's closing. The trading volume was 783,275 (+378,683) lots, and the open interest was 136,553 (+2,253) lots. The main contract of Shanghai nickel showed a wide - range oscillating upward trend. The expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut increased, the risk appetite of global commodities recovered, the non - ferrous sector strengthened as a whole, and capital inflows pushed up the price. LME nickel was strong overnight, providing external support for Shanghai nickel. However, the high inventory of refined nickel suppresses the nickel price, and the demand boost from new energy vehicles is limited [1]. - The nickel ore market remained stable. After several days of continuous price increases, it entered a high - level consolidation stage, and the trading atmosphere became calm. The mine side maintained a firm quotation. There was no new tender price on that day, and the FOB tender price of some mines' 1.3% nickel ore was 40 US dollars/wet ton. In Indonesia, the nickel ore premium rose to 28 - 32 US dollars/wet ton in February, and the supply of nickel ore was tight. The approval progress of the 2026 mining work plan and budget (RKAB) was slow [2]. - The sales price of Jinchuan Group in the Shanghai market was 151,900 yuan/ton, an increase of 2,500 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. The spot trading was average, and the spot premiums of various brands of refined nickel were stable with a slight increase. The premium of Jinchuan nickel changed by 450 yuan/ton to 7,050 yuan/ton, the premium of imported nickel changed by 0 yuan/ton to 50 yuan/ton, and the premium of nickel beans was 2,450 yuan/ton. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipt volume was 46,854 (+2,032) tons, and the LME nickel inventory was 286,470 (+132) tons [2]. Strategy - The short - term price is in a wide - range oscillation pattern. The strategy is mainly range operation for the single - side, and there are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [3]. Group 4: Stainless Steel Variety Market Analysis - On January 29, 2026, the main contract 2603 of stainless steel opened at 14,500 yuan/ton and closed at 14,585 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 295,945 (-16,622) lots, and the open interest was 113,676 (-4,171) lots. The main contract of stainless steel followed Shanghai nickel and showed an oscillating upward trend. The strengthening of Shanghai nickel enhanced the cost support of ferronickel. The significant reduction of Indonesia's 2026 nickel ore quota led to the expectation of supply contraction, and the increase in nickel ore quotation further pushed up the cost, providing bottom support for the stainless steel price. However, the downstream demand was weak, and the actual transaction was light [3][4]. - The stainless steel price in Wuxi market was 14,400 (+0) yuan/ton, and in Foshan market was 14,350 (+0) yuan/ton. The 304/2B premium was 90 to 290 yuan/ton. The ex - factory tax - included average price of high - nickel pig iron was 1,054.0 yuan/nickel point, with no change [4]. Strategy - The core contradiction is the balance between cost and demand. If the supply contraction in Indonesia is realized and the ferronickel price continues to rise, the cost support will be enhanced, and the price is expected to maintain a high - level oscillation. If the demand remains weak and the inventory is high, the price may face downward pressure. The short - term strategy is mainly range operation, buying low and selling high, and setting stop - losses strictly. The medium - term strategy is to pay attention to policy and demand changes and wait for a clear trend before laying out single - side positions. The single - side strategy is neutral, and there are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [4].

2026年01月30日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-贵金属及基本金属 观点与策略 | 黄金：再创新高 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 白银：高位回落 | 2 | | 铜：美元弱势，支撑价格 | 4 | | 锌：库存去化 | 6 | | 铅：国内库存持续增加，施压价格 | 8 | | 锡：区间震荡 | 9 | | 铝：高位高波 | 10 | | 氧化铝：偏弱运行 | 10 | | 铸造铝合金：跟随电解铝 | 10 | | 铂：震荡上行 | 12 | | 钯：ETF持续流入，跟随上涨 | 12 | | 镍：印尼事件悬而未决，套保与投机盘博弈 | 14 | | 不锈钢：印尼加剧镍矿担忧，镍铁跟涨支撑重心 | 14 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 商 品 研 究 2026 年 1 月 30 日 黄金：再创新高 白银：高位回落 刘雨萱 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020476 liuyuxuan023982@gtjas.com 【基本面跟踪】 贵金属基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 | 昨日夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨幅 | | -- ...

2026年01月30日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-绿色金融与新能源 | 观点与策略 | | --- | | 镍：印尼事件悬而未决，套保与投机盘博弈 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 不锈钢：印尼加剧镍矿担忧，镍铁跟涨支撑重心 | 2 | | 碳酸锂：刚需采买支撑，盘面宽幅震荡格局 | 4 | | 工业硅：上游减产，关注库存变动 | 6 | | 多晶硅：会议情绪积极，构筑盘面底部支撑 | 6 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 【基本面跟踪】 镍基本面数据 | | | 指标名称 | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-10 | T-22 | T-66 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 沪镍主力（收盘价） | 147,470 | 3,100 | 4,970 | 720 | 15,080 | 25,930 | | 期 | | 不锈钢主力（收盘价） | 14,585 | 120 | -65 | 170 | 1,495 | 1,780 | | 货 | | 沪镍主力（ ...

1. Report Sector Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views of the Report - The nickel and stainless steel markets are experiencing a downward trend due to margin policy adjustments. The nickel market is facing a tug - of - war between supply contraction expectations and weak demand, with prices highly volatile in the short term. The stainless steel market's core issue is the balance between cost and demand, and prices are also subject to short - term fluctuations [1][3][5] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Variety Market Analysis - On January 28, 2026, the main contract of Shanghai nickel 2603 opened at 147,100 yuan/ton and closed at 144,370 yuan/ton, a - 1.31% change from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 404,592 (- 118,804) lots, and the open interest was 27,881 (- 2,279) lots. The price showed a downward trend due to the Fed's interest - rate meeting, high refined nickel inventory, and margin policy adjustments [1] - The nickel ore market is stable after price increases, with a calm trading atmosphere. Indonesian nickel ore supply is tight, and the approval of mining work plans and budgets is slow. The spot price of Jinchuan Group in Shanghai decreased by 1,900 yuan/ton to 151,300 yuan/ton, and the spot premiums of various refined nickel brands decreased [2] Strategy - The market is divided between supply contraction expectations and weak demand. Short - term prices are easily affected by policies and funds, showing a wide - range oscillation pattern. The recommended strategy for single - side trading is range - bound operations [3] Stainless Steel Variety Market Analysis - On January 28, 2026, the main contract of stainless steel 2603 opened at 14,580 yuan/ton and closed at 14,465 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 312,567 (- 16,363) lots, and the open interest was 123,373 (- 4,171) lots. The price showed a weak oscillation pattern due to the approaching Spring Festival, reduced market activity, and seasonal weakening of demand. The supply is still sufficient in the short term, and the inventory decline has slowed down [3][4] - The downstream restocking demand has not been released, and the spot price has decreased with the futures price. The stainless steel prices in Wuxi and Foshan markets decreased by 100 yuan/ton, and the average ex - factory tax - included price of high - nickel pig iron increased by 1.00 yuan/nickel point to 1,054.0 yuan/nickel point [4] Strategy - The core contradiction is the balance between cost and demand. If the supply contraction in Indonesia is realized and the nickel - iron price continues to rise, the price may maintain a high - level oscillation. If the demand remains weak and the inventory is high, the price may face downward pressure. The short - term strategy is range - bound operations, and the medium - term strategy is to wait for a clear trend [5]

2026年01月29日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-贵金属及基本金属 观点与策略 | 黄金：再创新高 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 白银：冲刺120 | 2 | | 铜：美元承压，价格偏强 | 4 | | 锌：现实偏强 | 6 | | 铅：海外库存减少，支撑价格 | 8 | | 锡：区间震荡 | 9 | | 铝：震荡偏强 | 10 | | 氧化铝：逢高沽空 | 10 | | 铸造铝合金：跟随电解铝 | 10 | | 铂：跟随抬升 | 12 | | 钯：警惕补涨 | 12 | | 镍：印尼事件悬而未决，套保与投机盘博弈 | 14 | | 不锈钢：印尼加剧镍矿担忧，镍铁跟涨支撑重心 | 14 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 商 品 研 究 2026 年 1 月 29 日 黄金：再创新高 白银：冲刺 120 刘雨萱 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020476 liuyuxuan023982@gtjas.com 【基本面跟踪】 期货研究 贵金属基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 | 昨日夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨幅 | | --- ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For the nickel market, the price is under pressure due to a strong US dollar, high refined nickel inventory, and limited demand from new - energy vehicles, despite cost support from rising nickel ore and nickel - iron prices. The market is in a state of wide - range oscillation, with the short - term price being easily affected by policy news and capital sentiment [1]. - For the stainless - steel market, the core contradiction lies in the balance between cost and demand. If the supply contraction in Indonesia materializes and nickel - iron prices continue to rise, the cost support will strengthen, and the price is expected to maintain a high - level oscillation. If demand remains weak and inventory is high, the price may face downward pressure [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Variety Market Analysis - **Futures**: On January 27, 2026, the Shanghai nickel main contract 2602 opened at 147,980 yuan/ton and closed at 146,110 yuan/ton, down 1.87% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 523,396 (- 207,084) lots, and the open interest was 40,119 (- 19,164) lots. The strong US durable goods order data strengthened the US dollar index, which suppressed the prices of commodities denominated in US dollars. The London nickel closed down 0.64%, dragging down the opening performance of Shanghai nickel. Additionally, with the approaching Spring Festival, market funds' risk - aversion sentiment increased, and speculative funds gradually left the market, further intensifying the price correction pressure. High refined nickel inventory also put pressure on the nickel price [1]. - **Nickel Ore**: The nickel ore market remained stable overall. After several days of continuous price increases, it entered a high - level consolidation stage, and the market trading atmosphere became calm. Mine owners maintained firm quotes based on previous high - price transactions. Some mines' FOB tender price for 1.3% nickel ore was 39.5 US dollars/wet ton. In Indonesia, the nickel ore premium for February was being negotiated, and the benchmark price for the first half of February was expected to rise by 2 - 3 US dollars. The ESDM began to approve the 2026 mining work plan and budget (RKAB), and the supply of Indonesian nickel ore remained tight [2]. - **Spot**: Jinchuan Group's sales price in the Shanghai market was 151,300 yuan/ton, down 6,000 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Downstream buyers purchased as needed, and the overall transaction was average. The premium of Jinchuan nickel changed by 250 yuan/ton to 6,750 yuan/ton, and the premium of imported nickel changed by - 150 yuan/ton to 200 yuan/ton, with the nickel bean premium at 2,450 yuan/ton. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipts were 42,499 (- 18) tons, and the LME nickel inventory was 285,726 ( + 174) tons [2]. Strategy - The market divergence focuses on the game between "supply contraction expectation" and "weak demand reality". Short - term prices are easily affected by policy news and capital sentiment, showing a wide - range oscillation pattern. The strategy is mainly range - bound operation, with no suggestions for spread trading, cross - variety trading, cash - futures arbitrage, or options trading [3]. Stainless - Steel Variety Market Analysis - **Futures**: On January 27, 2026, the stainless - steel main contract 2603 opened at 14,725 yuan/ton and closed at 14,540 yuan/ton, down 1.26%. The market trading and open interest both contracted, showing obvious weak characteristics. The strong US dollar suppressed commodities, and the weakening of London nickel dragged down the cost support of stainless steel. The synchronous decline of Shanghai nickel further transmitted negative sentiment, suppressing the stainless - steel futures market. Fundamentally, the demand side was unable to support price increases, and although some steel mills had maintenance plans, the short - term supply was still sufficient, and the inventory decline slowed down, highlighting the supply - demand contradiction [3][4]. - **Spot**: The spot price was slightly adjusted downward but remained at a high level overall. Some downstream stocking demand was released, and the market transaction improved compared with the previous period. The stainless - steel price in Wuxi market was 14,500 (- 50) yuan/ton, and in Foshan market, it was 14,450 (+ 0) yuan/ton. The 304/2B premium was 110 - 210 yuan/ton. The ex - factory tax - inclusive average price of high - nickel pig iron changed by 3.00 yuan/nickel point to 1,053.0 yuan/nickel point [4]. Strategy - The core contradiction is the balance between cost and demand. The short - term strategy is range - bound operation, buying low and selling high, with strict stop - loss settings. In the medium term, attention should be paid to policy and demand changes, and unilateral positions should be arranged after the trend is clear. The unilateral rating is neutral, and there are no suggestions for spread trading, cross - variety trading, cash - futures arbitrage, or options trading [5].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Report's Core View - For the nickel market, the market divergence lies in the game between "supply contraction expectation" and "weak demand reality", with short - term prices being easily affected by policy news and capital sentiment, showing a wide - range oscillation pattern. For the stainless - steel market, the core contradiction is the balance between cost and demand. If the supply contraction in Indonesia materializes and the ferronickel price continues to rise, the cost support will strengthen, and the price is expected to maintain a high - level oscillation. If demand remains weak and inventories are high, the price may face downward pressure [2][3][6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Variety - **Market Analysis** - **Futures**: On January 26, 2026, the Shanghai nickel main contract 2602 opened at 149,880 yuan/ton and closed at 145,380 yuan/ton, with a 0.25% change from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 730,480 (-22,360) lots, and the open interest was 59,283 (-9,313) lots. It showed a pattern of "rising and then falling, wide - range oscillation", rising due to the expected supply contraction in Indonesia and the linkage with LME nickel, but then falling under short - selling pressure [1][2]. - **Nickel Ore**: The nickel ore market remained stable overall. After continuous price increases in previous days, it entered a high - level consolidation stage, with a calmer trading atmosphere and increased wait - and - see sentiment. The mine end maintained firm quotes. In Indonesia, the market price remained stable, and there was an expectation that the February domestic trade benchmark price (HPM) might be further raised due to the rising nickel price [2]. - **Spot**: Jinchuan Group's Shanghai market sales price was 157,300 yuan/ton, up 4,600 yuan/ton from the previous day. Spot trading was average, and the spot premiums of refined nickel brands were stable with a slight decline. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipts were 42,517 (450) tons, and LME nickel inventories were 285,552 (1,824) tons [3]. - **Strategy** - Market divergence is concentrated in the game between "supply contraction expectation" and "weak demand reality". Short - term prices are volatile. The strategy is mainly range - bound operation for the single - side, and no operations are recommended for cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [3]. Stainless - Steel Variety - **Market Analysis** - **Futures**: On January 26, 2026, the stainless - steel main contract 2603 opened at 12,720 yuan/ton and closed at 14,645 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 365,984 (+18,855) lots, and the open interest was 155,289 (-4,171) lots. It showed a pattern of "rising and then falling, narrow - range decline", rising at the opening due to the cost - side nickel price but lacking upward momentum due to weak downstream demand and light spot trading [3][4]. - **Spot**: Recently, stainless - steel prices have risen, leading to increased downstream price - aversion sentiment. Actual trading was poor. The stainless - steel price in Wuxi market was 14,550 (+100) yuan/ton, and in Foshan market was 14,450 (+100) yuan/ton. The 304/2B premium was - 140 to - 40 yuan/ton. The ex - factory tax - included average price of high - nickel pig iron changed by 7.50 yuan/nickel point to 1,050.0 yuan/nickel point [5]. - **Strategy** - The core contradiction is the balance between cost and demand. Short - term strategy is range - bound operation, high - selling and low - buying with strict stop - loss. Medium - term, pay attention to policy and demand changes and wait for a clear trend before deploying single - side positions. The single - side view is neutral, and no operations are recommended for cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The situation of the Indonesian nickel - related events is undetermined, with a game between hedging and speculative positions in the nickel market. The concerns about nickel ore in Indonesia have intensified, and the rising price of ferronickel supports the center of the stainless - steel market [2] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: The closing price of the Shanghai nickel main contract was 145,380, down 2,630 compared to T - 1; the closing price of the stainless - steel main contract was 14,645, down 80 compared to T - 1. The trading volume of the Shanghai nickel main contract was 718,003, down 34,837 compared to T - 1; the trading volume of the stainless - steel main contract was 555,399, up 67,119 compared to T - 1 [2] - **Industrial Chain Data**: The price of 1 imported nickel was 150,800, up 6,000 compared to T - 1; the ex - factory price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron was 1,050, up 8 compared to T - 1. The price of 304/2B coil - rough edge (Wuxi) Hongwang/Beibuwan was 14,550, up 100 compared to T - 1; the price of 304/2B coil - trimmed edge (Wuxi) Taigang/Zhangpu was 15,050, up 100 compared to T - 1 [2] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - The Indonesian government has suspended issuing new smelting licenses through the OSS platform, targeting projects producing "restricted products" such as Nickel matte, MHP, FeNi, and NPI [2] - China's Ministry of Commerce and General Administration of Customs have decided to implement export license management for some steel products, effective from January 1, 2026 [3] - The Indonesian government plans to revise the benchmark price formula for nickel ore products in early 2026, and will start treating cobalt as an independent commodity and levy royalties [3] - The Indonesian government plans to significantly reduce the 2026 nickel ore production target from 379 million tons to 250 million tons [5] - Some Indonesian mines are facing potential fines of about 80.2 trillion Indonesian rupiah for illegal occupation of forest land, and are negotiating with the government [5] - The Indonesian energy and mineral resources minister said that the 2026 nickel production quota will be adjusted according to industry demand, and the output may be around 250 - 260 million tons [5] - The KPPU found monopoly behavior in the port storage and logistics of the IMIP park in Indonesia, and the park is negotiating with the KPPU [5] - A Singapore - flagged bulk carrier carrying about 50,000 tons of nickel ore sank on its way from the Philippines to Yangjiang, Guangdong, China [6] 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of nickel is 0, and the trend intensity of stainless steel is 0, both indicating a neutral state [7]

Core Viewpoint - In 2024, the stainless steel industry faces challenges with prices declining, leading to inventory devaluation and profit compression for small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs). Guangqi Capital is leveraging rights-based trading to provide customized services to help these companies navigate their operational difficulties, demonstrating the role of finance in empowering the real economy [1][2]. Industry Context - The overall economic environment in China remains stable in 2024, but SMEs are particularly vulnerable due to their smaller scale, weaker risk resistance, and intense market competition. The stainless steel sector is experiencing a downward price trend throughout the year, exacerbated by raw material cost fluctuations and supply-demand adjustments, which have left many SMEs struggling with inventory devaluation and profit compression [2]. Company Actions and Innovations - Guangqi Capital has actively engaged with SMEs in the stainless steel supply chain, providing training on futures, basis trading, options, and rights-based trading to help them manage risks effectively. Customized rights-based trading solutions have been developed to assist companies in avoiding price risks, optimizing inventory management, and enhancing operational profits [2][3]. Case Study Implementation - A notable case involved a stainless steel trader in Wuxi, who faced significant inventory pressure and anticipated continued price declines. Guangqi Capital designed a rights-based trading contract that allowed the trader to sell at a price higher than the market average, achieving a profit margin of 320 yuan per ton and a total profit of approximately 121,600 yuan [3][4][6]. Value of the Trading Scheme - The rights-based trading contract provided immediate benefits, allowing the Wuxi trader to sell at 13,320 yuan per ton, which was 220 yuan higher than the market price on the contract's initiation date. Over the contract period, the trader successfully sold 379.852 tons of stainless steel, generating a total settlement amount of 5.0596 million yuan [4][6]. Iteration of Trading Models - To address limitations in the initial rights-based trading model, Guangqi Capital introduced a "circuit breaker" rights-based trading model that offers more comprehensive risk protection by compensating for potential losses when prices fall below a set threshold. This model enhances capital efficiency and allows companies to engage in further hedging activities [7][8]. Application Effects - The implementation of rights-based trading has significantly improved inventory and procurement management for SMEs, fostering a shift in their perception of financial tools from reluctance to proactive engagement. Many companies have transitioned from tentative collaborations to stable partnerships with Guangqi Capital, leading to increased awareness and utilization of risk management tools [9].

Group 1 - The core concept of the articles revolves around the integration of artificial intelligence (AI) into the manufacturing industry, which is seen as a driving force for industrial transformation and competitiveness [2][3][4] - The global AI industry is projected to exceed $3.5 trillion by 2025, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of over 25%, indicating AI's established role as a core driver of the new technological revolution [2] - In China, the AI industry is expected to surpass 1.2 trillion yuan by 2025, with over 6,000 companies contributing to a complete industrial ecosystem [2] Group 2 - Local initiatives in cities like Wuzhou are showcasing effective models for intelligent transformation in manufacturing, supported by policies, funding, and exemplary practices [3][4] - Wuzhou has recognized two benchmark enterprises and 18 smart factory demonstration enterprises, reflecting the city's commitment to AI integration in manufacturing [3] - The implementation of national policies, such as the "AI + Manufacturing" action plan, has been rapidly adopted at the local level, establishing a comprehensive policy support system [3][4] Group 3 - The application of AI in various industries, such as artificial gemstones and ceramics, has led to significant improvements in efficiency, with specific examples showing time reductions of 35% and speed increases of 40% [4] - Despite rapid growth, challenges remain in the adoption of AI in manufacturing, particularly for small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) facing financial and technical barriers [4][5] - The need for a robust support system, including targeted funding and mentorship programs, is emphasized to facilitate the transition of SMEs to AI applications [5] Group 4 - The establishment of regional data-sharing platforms is crucial to overcome data silos within industries, enabling better integration of AI technologies [5] - The cultivation of interdisciplinary talent tailored to local industry needs is essential for fostering innovation and ensuring the safe application of AI technologies [5] - The transformation of Wuzhou's manufacturing from "Wuzhou Manufacturing" to "Wuzhou Intelligent Manufacturing" symbolizes the broader shift towards high-quality development in China's industrial landscape [6]