Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - Overseas macro: US economic data in May, including ADP employment growth, ISM manufacturing, and services PMI, were below expectations and previous values. The OECD cut the US economic growth forecast from 2.8% to 1.6%. The Fed's "Beige Book" indicated a slight decline in economic activity and a "somewhat pessimistic and uncertain" outlook. However, consumer confidence improved after the tariff truce, with increased spending intentions and lower inflation expectations [5]. - Domestic macro: Amid the "rush export/trans - shipment" and "two new" policies, manufacturing enterprises' profits and PMI showed resilience. China's May Caixin manufacturing PMI was 48.3, lower than expected. From January to April, industrial enterprise profits were 21170.2 billion yuan, up 1.4% year - on - year. The May manufacturing PMI rebounded due to trade friction easing and policy support [5]. - Asset views: Maintain the view of more hedging and volatility overseas and a structural market in China. Strategically allocate gold and non - US dollar assets. Overseas, Trump's tariffs won't solve the US deficit problem. In China, stable - growth policies focus on existing resources. Bonds are worth allocating after the capital pressure eases, while stocks and commodities may range - bound in the short term [5]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Performance - **Financial markets**: Index futures showed different daily, weekly, monthly, quarterly, and yearly changes. For example, the CSI 300 futures had a daily increase of 0.25%, and the 2 - year treasury bond futures had a daily increase of 0.03%. Interest rates, foreign exchange, and other financial indicators also had their respective fluctuations [2]. - **Domestic commodities**: Most commodities showed varying degrees of price changes. Alumina had a significant daily decline of 3.92%, while gold had a daily increase of 0.17%. Different sectors such as shipping, precious metals, and energy had their own trends [2]. - **Overseas commodities**: NYMEX WTI crude oil decreased by 0.95% daily, and COMEX gold increased by 0.61% daily. Various overseas commodities in energy, precious metals, and agriculture also had different performance [2]. 2. Macro Analysis - **Overseas**: US economic data was weak in May, but consumer confidence improved. The OECD cut the global and US growth forecasts, and the Fed warned of economic uncertainties [5]. - **Domestic**: Manufacturing showed resilience under policies. May's manufacturing PMI rebounded, and industrial enterprise profits increased year - on - year from January to April [5]. 3. Asset Views - **Overall**: Maintain the view of more hedging and volatility overseas and a structural market in China. Strategically allocate gold and non - US dollar assets [5]. - **Domestic**: Bonds are worth allocating after the capital pressure eases, and stocks and commodities may range - bound in the short term, focusing on low - valuation and policy - driven stocks [5]. 4. Viewpoint Highlights - **Macro**: Overseas, stagflation trading cools down; in China, there may be moderate reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts, and fiscal policies will be implemented [7]. - **Financial**: Stock index futures have rising gaming sentiment but also concerns; index options have a slightly warm sentiment; treasury bond futures may be affected by capital and policy expectations [7]. - **Precious metals**: Gold and silver may adjust short - term due to better - than - expected Sino - US negotiations [7]. - **Shipping**: The shipping market's sentiment has declined, and attention should be paid to the sustainability of the loading rate increase in June [7]. - **Black building materials**: Coal and coke supply contraction expectations increase, and black prices generally rebound, but different varieties have different trends [7]. - **Non - ferrous metals and new materials**: De - stocking slows down, and non - ferrous metals maintain a volatile trend [7]. - **Energy and chemicals**: Demand growth is lower than expected, and the sector's performance is weak, with different trends for each variety [9]. - **Agriculture**: Sino - US negotiations have a positive impact on cotton prices, and different agricultural products have their own market situations [9].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the implications of recent U.S. legislative actions, particularly the tax reduction bill passed by the House of Representatives, and its potential impact on the economy, including deficits and interest rates [6][10][17]. Group 1: Deep Topics - The article analyzes the recent U.S. court ruling regarding Trump's tariffs, questioning the legality and future implications of such tariffs on trade [3][7]. - It highlights the ongoing "pressure test" series on tariffs, focusing on how these legal and legislative changes may affect market dynamics [6][7]. Group 2: Hot Topics - The article raises concerns about an impending "storm" in U.S. Treasury bonds, suggesting that the tax reduction bill could exacerbate deficits and influence interest rates [9][10]. - It discusses new employment trends based on recent wage data, identifying sectors experiencing wage increases and those showing signs of "anti-involution" [11]. - The article emphasizes the importance of monitoring fiscal policies following the tax bill's passage, suggesting that new policies may help stabilize fiscal spending and support economic recovery [13][14]. Group 3: High-Frequency Tracking - The article notes a continuous increase in automobile sales, indicating a strong performance in the automotive sector despite broader economic challenges [15][16]. - It mentions that industrial production remains stable, although infrastructure projects have seen a decline, reflecting mixed signals in economic recovery [16][18].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the Departure Tax Refund Policy in China, which allows overseas visitors to claim a refund on Value-Added Tax (VAT) for eligible goods purchased in tax refund stores when leaving the mainland [3][4]. Summary by Sections Eligibility for Tax Refund - Overseas visitors must meet specific conditions to apply for a departure tax refund, including a minimum purchase amount of 200 RMB at the same store on the same day [4]. - The goods must not have been used or consumed, and the departure date must be within 90 days of the purchase [4]. Tax Refund Rates - Goods purchased at a tax rate of 13% are eligible for a refund rate of 11%, while those at a 9% tax rate have a refund rate of 8% [5]. Calculation of Refundable VAT - The refundable VAT amount is calculated as the total sales invoice amount (including VAT) multiplied by the applicable tax refund rate [7]. - The actual VAT refunded is the refundable VAT amount minus any service fees charged by the tax refund agency [7]. Refund Process - The refund process involves several steps: purchasing tax-refundable goods, customs verification, and applying for the refund through a tax refund agency [9][8][14]. - For amounts up to 20,000 RMB, refunds can be received in cash or via bank transfer; amounts exceeding 20,000 RMB must be refunded through bank transfer only [7]. Instant Tax Refund Policy - The "Instant Tax Refund" policy allows overseas visitors to receive an advance payment equivalent to the tax refund amount on-site at designated stores after signing an agreement and completing credit card pre-authorization [10]. - Visitors must be verified by customs upon departure and comply with the departure tax refund policy [11]. Purchase Limits - The total amount of tax-refundable goods that the same overseas visitor can apply for at the same store on the same day is capped at 222,000 RMB [16]. Tax Refund Stores - The article lists various tax refund stores in Taizhou City, which are eligible for the departure tax refund policy [17][18][19][20][21][22][23].

Legislative Work Plan Overview - The National People's Congress (NPC) Standing Committee has announced the legislative work plan for 2025, which includes 14 bills for continued review and 23 bills for initial review [2][3] Continued Review Bills - The 14 bills for continued review include significant laws such as the Representative Law (amendment), Private Economy Promotion Law, Infectious Disease Prevention Law (amendment), and Financial Stability Law [2][3] Initial Review Bills - The 23 bills for initial review encompass a wide range of topics, including the Ecological Environment Code, National Development Planning Law, and Financial Law, indicating a focus on environmental and financial regulations [3][4] Financial Law Development - The Financial Law is highlighted as a crucial piece of legislation aimed at providing a foundational legal framework for financial activities, addressing existing legislative gaps and regulatory blind spots [4] Legislative Clean-up Initiatives - The NPC Standing Committee plans to initiate a comprehensive legal clean-up in 2025 to address inconsistencies and improve the legal framework, ensuring a more coherent legal system [6] Strengthening Review Mechanisms - The legislative work plan emphasizes enhancing the record review system, including the establishment of a unified platform for legal documents and improved coordination among relevant agencies [5]

Group 1 - The A-share market showed positive performance in the first week of May, with major indices rising and small-cap indices and the ChiNext Index increasing by over 3% [1] - The market's upward trend was supported by the resumption of trade talks between China and the U.S., as well as a series of financial measures including interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions [1] - The average daily trading volume in the market stabilized and rebounded to 1.35 trillion yuan, indicating increased market activity [1] Group 2 - The recent high-level economic and trade talks between China and the U.S. in Geneva are expected to enhance investor risk appetite, with substantial progress reported by the Chinese delegation [2] - The China Securities Regulatory Commission issued a new action plan to promote the high-quality development of public funds, emphasizing stability in fund investment behavior and establishing clear performance benchmarks for each fund [2] - Recent export data significantly exceeded market expectations, indicating strong current performance despite weaker future expectations, with the outcome of trade negotiations likely influencing future market reactions [2] Group 3 - The MACD golden cross signal has formed, indicating a positive trend for certain stocks [3]