1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the text. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas, there are doubts about the so - called US - Iran peace talks. The US is reported to be formulating a "fatal blow" military plan against Iran, and Iran believes the US negotiation stance is a "third deception" plan. Oil prices have risen again, the Fed's interest - rate hike expectations have resurfaced, the US dollar index and US Treasury yields have strengthened significantly, and global risk appetite has cooled significantly. Domestically, the Chinese economy rebounded better than expected from January to February, exports far exceeded expectations, and inflation continued to recover. The goals and policy intensity in the government work report for 2026 are lower than those in 2025. The short - term trading logic of the market focuses on Middle - East geopolitical risks. In the short term, the domestic economy is better than expected, but due to the mixed geopolitical news in the Middle East, the stock index fluctuates weakly and with increased volatility. [3][4] - For assets, the stock index fluctuates weakly and with increased volatility in the short term, and it is advisable to wait and see cautiously; government bonds fluctuate in the short term, and it is advisable to wait and see cautiously; in the commodity sector, black metals fluctuate weakly in the short term, and it is advisable to wait and see cautiously; non - ferrous metals fluctuate weakly in the short term, and it is advisable to wait and see cautiously; energy and chemical products fluctuate significantly in the short term, and it is advisable to go long cautiously; precious metals fluctuate significantly and weaken in the short term, and it is advisable to wait and see cautiously. [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro - finance - Overseas, doubts about the US - Iran peace talks, rising oil prices, resurgent Fed interest - rate hike expectations, strengthening of the US dollar index and US Treasury yields, and cooling of global risk appetite. Domestically, the economy and inflation are better than expected in January - February, and the goals and policy intensity in 2026 are lower than in 2025. The short - term stock index fluctuates weakly and with increased volatility. [3] - Asset suggestions: short - term cautious wait - and - see for stock indices, government bonds, black metals, non - ferrous metals, and precious metals; short - term cautious long - position for energy and chemical products. [3] 3.2 Stock Index - Affected by sectors such as insurance, communication services, and photovoltaics, the domestic stock market continued to decline significantly. The economy and inflation are better than expected from January to February, and the goals and policy intensity in 2026 are lower than in 2025. The short - term trading logic focuses on Middle - East geopolitical risks, and the stock index fluctuates weakly and with increased volatility. It is advisable to wait and see cautiously in the short term. [4] 3.3 Precious Metals - The precious metals market fell on Thursday night. The main contract of Shanghai gold closed at 980.08 yuan/gram, down 2.83%; the main contract of Shanghai silver closed at 16841 yuan/kilogram, down 5.66%. Spot gold restarted its decline, and finally closed down 2.85% at 4377.95 US dollars/ounce; spot silver finally closed down 4.32% at 68.11 US dollars/ounce. Precious metals fluctuate significantly and weaken in the short term, and it is advisable to wait and see cautiously. [5] 3.4 Black Metals - **Steel**: The domestic steel futures and spot markets declined slightly on Thursday, and the trading volume was low. The real demand improved marginally, the apparent consumption of five major steel products increased by 19.49 tons week - on - week, and the inventory decline continued to expand. The supply decreased slightly this week, but the molten iron output increased. The steel market will follow the cost in the short term, and attention should be paid to the price adjustment risk after the cost decline. [6][7] - **Iron Ore**: The spot price of iron ore rebounded significantly on Thursday, and the futures performance was relatively strong. There are rumors of setbacks in iron ore negotiations. The demand for iron ore is still resilient, and the supply has increased. It is expected that the room for further price increase is limited, and attention should be paid to the phased adjustment risk after the energy price weakens. [7] - **Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron**: The spot prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese rebounded on Thursday, and the futures continued to fluctuate. The alloy prices were supported by the rebound of crude oil prices. The operating rate of silicon manganese increased slightly, and the daily output decreased slightly. The steel procurement in March has basically ended, and the market is waiting for the situation in April. It is advisable to treat the futures prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese with a slightly bullish and fluctuating mindset. [8] 3.5 Non - ferrous Metals and New Energy - **Copper**: The copper spot TC is close to - 70 US dollars/ton, a new low. The by - product income makes up for the smelting profit. The refined copper production growth rate is high. The core contradiction lies in the mine end. The inventories at home and abroad are accumulating, and the social inventory has decreased significantly. The sustainability of inventory reduction needs to be observed. [9] - **Aluminum**: On Thursday, due to Iran's opposition to the US proposal, the risk appetite decreased, but the aluminum price was supported. The domestic primary aluminum production increased significantly from January to February, and the pattern of weak domestic and strong overseas may change temporarily. The domestic primary aluminum import remains high, and the supply pressure still exists. [9] - **Zinc**: The domestic zinc ingot inventory continued to decline to 21.44 tons on Thursday, but it is still at a high level in recent years. The zinc ore processing fees in some regions have rebounded, and the domestic smelting output remains relatively high. The demand is not optimistic. [9][10] - **Lead**: The imports of refined lead and crude lead increased significantly from January to February. The production of primary lead and secondary lead increased seasonally. The demand is entering the off - season, and the social inventory of primary lead has decreased. The LME lead inventory is at a high level in the same period in recent years. [11] - **Nickel**: Indonesia may levy a windfall tax on nickel from April 1. The core contradiction lies in the mine end. The RKAB quota in 2026 has decreased significantly, and the MHP supply may decline. The nickel price has support below, but the upside is limited due to high inventories at home and abroad. [12] - **Tin**: The imports of tin ore from Myanmar increased significantly in the first two months, and the import sources are more diversified. The demand is not good overall, but the social inventory has decreased due to downstream replenishment. [13] - **Lithium Carbonate**: The main contract of lithium carbonate fell 0.64% on Thursday. The supply and demand are both strong, and the social inventory is continuously decreasing. It is expected to fluctuate in the support range, and it is advisable to lay out positions at low prices. [14] - **Industrial Silicon**: The main contract of industrial silicon rose 0.58% on Thursday. The supply and demand are both weak, the production capacity is surplus, and the inventory is at a high level. It is priced close to the cost, and it is advisable to operate within the range. [15] - **Polysilicon**: The main contract of polysilicon fell 2.78% on Thursday. The inventory is continuously accumulating at a high level, and the spot price is falling. It is expected to fluctuate weakly, and it is advisable for short - sellers to hold positions cautiously or take profits in a timely manner. [15] 3.6 Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The US sent mixed signals, and the market is not sure if the US - Iran negotiation will end the Middle - East conflict quickly. Trump postponed the strike on Iran's energy facilities by 10 days. The short - term oil price will face a pattern of a slightly rising center and increased volatility. [16] - **Asphalt**: The asphalt price follows the rising oil price, but the downstream is in the off - season, and the demand is affected by high prices. The supply is low, and the short - term absolute price will fluctuate significantly with the oil price. [16] - **PX**: The PX price follows the rising oil price, but the downstream start - up recovery is slow, and it is affected by negative feedback. It is likely to fluctuate in the short term. [17] - **PTA**: The PTA price follows the rising oil price, but the downstream negative feedback is obvious, and the rebound space is limited. It will remain slightly bullish and fluctuating before the oil price rises significantly. [17] - **Ethylene Glycol**: The ethylene glycol price rebounds slightly with the rising oil price. The port inventory reduction is limited, and the export expectation is increasing. The basis has strengthened slightly and is likely to fluctuate after a decline. [18] - **Short - fiber**: The short - fiber price remains slightly bullish and fluctuating with the rising oil price. The downstream production reduction suppresses the recovery space, but it can be supported by the cost in the later stage. [18] - **Methanol**: The inland methanol market is strong, and the port basis has strengthened. The inventory at the port and production enterprises has decreased. The supply has tightened, and the fundamentals have been repaired. The price is still firm, but attention should be paid to the marginal changes caused by geopolitical relaxation and downstream negative feedback. [19] - **PP**: The price of PP is supported by the continuous inventory reduction. The market is expected to remain strong, and the navigation situation in the Strait of Hormuz is the main uncertainty. [20] - **LLDPE**: The LLDPE price is firm. The supply is decreasing, the demand is increasing, and the inventory is being reduced rapidly. It is expected to continue to operate strongly, and geopolitical dynamics are the key variables affecting the external supply. [21] - **Urea**: The domestic urea market is stable. The supply has decreased slightly, the demand shows a pattern of "weak agricultural and strong industrial", and the export policy window is closed. The price is expected to fluctuate within a narrow range. [22][23] 3.7 Agricultural Products - **US Soybeans**: The 05 - month soybean contract on the CBOT market closed down 0.06% overnight. The US soybean export sales increased significantly in the week ending March 19. Attention should be paid to the revised biofuel blending target and the end - of - month planting area report on Friday. [24] - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: The inventory of imported soybeans and soybean meal is decreasing rapidly, supporting the soybean meal basis. The risk of delayed shipment and arrival of Brazilian soybeans still exists. The rapeseed meal inventory has increased, and it fluctuates with the soybean meal. [24] - **Soybean and Rapeseed Oil**: The domestic soybean oil inventory is decreasing rapidly, and the supply is tight in the short term, supporting the basis. The supply pressure of rapeseed oil may increase, and it is under pressure along with soybean and palm oil. [25] - **Palm Oil**: The Malaysian palm oil futures rose 0.35% overnight, supported by the strong Chicago soybean oil price, rising crude oil price, and strong export data. The domestic palm oil import is affected by the inverted profit, and the market transaction is light. [25] - **Corn**: The national corn price adjusts within a narrow range. The futures price fluctuates strongly, supporting the spot market. The sales of grassroots grain sources in the producing areas have slowed down, and the inventory at ports and deep - processing enterprises is low. However, the acceptance of high - priced corn by downstream feed enterprises is decreasing, and the possible rice auction in early April may have a negative impact. [26] - **Hogs**: The pig production capacity is in the pain period of adjustment, the demand is slightly improving but still in the off - season, and the breeding loss is increasing. The short - term futures and spot prices may continue to fall, and there are risks in the futures market. [27][28]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports 2.1 Oils and Fats Industry - Malaysian BMD crude palm oil futures are expected to break through the 4,600 ringgit resistance, and Dalian palm oil futures may break through the 9,700 yuan resistance [1]. - CBOT soybean oil is expected to reach 70 cents, and domestic soybean oil has both bullish and bearish factors [1]. - Zhengzhou rapeseed oil futures have a chance to rebound, with the upper pressure range at 9,900 - 10,000 yuan [1]. 2.2 Cotton Industry - ICE cotton futures hit an 11 - month high. The domestic cotton market is expected to be oscillating and slightly stronger in the short - term, and attention should be paid to spinning mills' order - receiving and macro - level news [2]. 2.3 Sugar Industry - ICE raw sugar futures reached a more than five - month high. The domestic sugar market is likely to maintain a high - level oscillation in the short - term, and attention should be paid to geopolitical developments in the Middle East and the mitigation of external risk factors [3]. 2.4 Jujube Industry - The jujube market is currently in a state of weak futures and spot prices, and the futures price is expected to remain at a low level in the short - term [4]. 2.5 Apple Industry - The apple futures price has fallen from a high level. The spot market is differentiated. The national cold - storage inventory is at a historical low, which supports the futures price. The market is expected to oscillate and consolidate in the short - term, and attention should be paid to the de - stocking of ordinary apples and weather changes [5]. 2.6 Corn and Corn Starch Industry - Corn prices are oscillating at a high level, with support from limited remaining grain and rigid demand, and suppression from grain substitution and policy releases. The operation range is mainly between 2,350 - 2,420 yuan [7]. 2.7 Meal Industry - US soybeans have rebounded near 1,160 cents. Domestic soybean meal sentiment has cooled, and the market is waiting for the planting intention report at the end of March [10]. 2.8 Pig Industry - The pig market is in a weak state. Spot prices are expected to continue to bottom out, and the futures market is in a reverse - spread pattern. Attention should be paid to the 5 - 7 or 5 - 9 reverse - spread opportunities [12]. 2.9 Egg Industry - The egg supply is relatively loose, and the demand is average. The egg price may face pressure near 3,550 - 3,600 [14]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Oils and Fats Industry 3.1.1 Price Changes - On March 26, the average price of soybean oil in Jiangsu increased by 1.02% to 8,950 yuan, and the futures price of Y2605 increased by 1.12% to 8,646 yuan [1]. - The price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong increased by 1.03% to 9,603 yuan, and the futures price of P2605 increased by 1.09% to 9,614 yuan [1]. - The price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu increased by 1.28% to 10,268 yuan, and the futures price of OIROS increased by 1.37% to 9,840 yuan [1]. 3.1.2 Spread Changes - The soybean - palm oil spot spread decreased by 1.24% to - 653 yuan, and the soybean - palm oil futures spread (2605) decreased by 0.83% to - 968 yuan [1]. - The rapeseed - soybean spot spread increased by 3.13% to 1,318 yuan, and the rapeseed - soybean futures spread (2605) increased by 3.20% to 1,194 yuan [1]. 3.2 Cotton Industry 3.2.1 Futures Market - The price of cotton 2605 increased by 1.35% to 15,420 yuan/ton, and the price of cotton 2609 increased by 1.24% to 12,242 yuan/ton [2]. - The 5 - 9 spread of cotton increased by 10.71% to - 125 yuan/ton [2]. 3.2.2 Spot Market - The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B increased by 0.14% to 16,597 yuan, and the CC Index: 3128B increased by 0.20% to 16,745 yuan [2]. - The FC Index: M: 1% increased by 1.55% to 13,270 yuan [2]. 3.2.3 Industry Situation - The small - scale inventory decreased by 100.0% to 0.00 tons, and the industrial inventory increased by 14.5% to 102.40 tons [2]. - The import volume decreased by 19.0% to 16.65 tons, and the bonded - area inventory increased by 9.8% to 47.10 tons [2]. 3.3 Sugar Industry 3.3.1 Futures Market - The price of sugar 2605 increased by 0.63% to 5,463 yuan/ton, and the price of sugar 2609 increased by 0.44% to 5,485 yuan/ton [3]. - The 5 - 9 spread of sugar increased by 31.25% to - 22 yuan/ton [3]. 3.3.2 Spot Market - The Guoyuan price remained unchanged at 5,470 yuan, and the Nanning price increased by 0.09% to 5,325 yuan [3]. - The import price of Brazilian sugar (within quota) decreased by 1.55% to 4,331 yuan/ton, and the import price of Brazilian sugar (outside quota) decreased by 1.58% to 5,497 yuan/ton [3]. 3.3.3 Industry Situation - The cumulative national sugar production decreased by 4.69% to 926.00 tons, and the cumulative national sugar sales decreased by 27.39% to 345.00 tons [3]. - The cumulative sugar production in Guangxi decreased by 8.36% to 565.13 tons, and the monthly sugar sales in Guangxi increased by 20.16% to 162.23 tons [3]. 3.4 Jujube Industry - The price of jujube 2605 decreased by 0.62% to 8,835 yuan/ton, and the price of jujube 2607 decreased by 0.94% to 9,060 yuan/ton [4]. - The 5 - 7 spread of jujube decreased by 170 yuan to - 140 yuan/ton, and the 5 - 9 spread of jujube increased by 35 yuan to - 340 yuan/ton [4]. 3.5 Apple Industry - The price of apple 2605 decreased by 0.32% to 9,946 yuan/ton, and the price of apple 2610 increased by 0.21% to 8,684 yuan/ton [5]. - The 5 - 10 spread of apple decreased by 3.81% to 1,262 yuan/ton [5]. 3.6 Corn and Corn Starch Industry 3.6.1 Corn - The price of corn 2605 remained unchanged at 2,376 yuan/ton, and the basis remained unchanged at 14 yuan [7]. - The 5 - 9 spread of corn decreased by 26.09% to - 29 yuan [7]. 3.6.2 Corn Starch - The price of corn starch 2605 increased by 0.07% to 2,765 yuan/ton, and the basis decreased by 2.39% to 204 yuan [7]. - The 5 - 9 spread of corn starch increased by 41.18% to - 10 yuan [7]. 3.7 Meal Industry 3.7.1 Soybean Meal - The price of Jiangsu soybean meal remained unchanged at 3,280 yuan, and the futures price of M2605 increased by 0.68% to 2,952 yuan [10]. - The basis of M2605 decreased by 5.75% to 328 yuan [10]. 3.7.2 Rapeseed Meal - The price of Jiangsu rapeseed meal increased by 0.39% to 2,570 yuan, and the futures price of RM2605 increased by 0.21% to 2,344 yuan [10]. - The basis of RM2605 increased by 2.26% to 226 yuan [10]. 3.8 Pig Industry 3.8.1 Futures Market - The price of the main pig contract decreased by 1.45% to 9,835 yuan/ton, and the 5 - 7 spread of pigs decreased by 6.39% to - 1,415 yuan [12]. 3.8.2 Spot Market - The spot price in Henan decreased by 150 yuan to 9,500 yuan/ton, and the spot price in Shandong decreased by 100 yuan to 9,700 yuan/ton [12]. 3.8.3 Industry Situation - The daily slaughter volume of sample points increased by 0.93% to 182,741, and the weekly white - strip price decreased by 0.86% to 17.25 yuan [12]. - The weekly piglet price remained unchanged at 26.20 yuan/kg, and the weekly sow price remained unchanged at 32.45 yuan/kg [12]. 3.9 Egg Industry - The price of the egg 04 contract increased by 2.64% to 3,418 yuan/500KG, and the price of the egg 05 contract increased by 2.99% to 3,512 yuan/500KG [14]. - The egg - producing area price increased by 0.47% to 3.30 yuan/jin, and the basis increased by 28.03% to - 116 yuan/500KG [14].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current agricultural product market is in a stage of intertwined games between macro risks (geopolitical and crude oil) and industrial fundamentals (sufficient supply and weak demand). Short - term trends are driven by events such as geopolitical situations, customs clearance logistics, and policy news, with intensified fluctuations. Medium - and long - term trends depend on the clarity of core factors such as North American planting weather, global demand recovery, and the degree of domestic pig production capacity reduction. Investors are advised to adopt a cautious and flexible strategy, focusing on structural opportunities, spread arbitrage, and band operations rather than unilateral trend bets [15] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Macroeconomic and Geopolitical Environment - The Middle East geopolitical conflict is the core macro variable dominating the commodity market, affecting agricultural product costs and market sentiment through multiple paths such as pushing up crude oil prices, causing inflation concerns, and influencing the prices of the US dollar and risk assets (stocks and bonds) [7] - Most views believe that the crude oil price has been locked at a high level due to war premiums (e.g., Brent crude oil may remain above $80 per barrel), and energy cost increases will continue to be transmitted to the agricultural product production and logistics links [7] 2. Oilseeds and Oils Market (Soybean Meal, Rapeseed Meal, Soybean Oil, Rapeseed Oil) Soybean Meal - Short - term contradiction: The price is supported by import costs (US soybean price and war - induced logistics costs) but limited by high arrival volume (expected monthly average of over 10 million tons from May to August) and weak spot basis. The arrival and customs clearance efficiency of soybeans from April to May are key uncertain factors affecting the basis and inter - month spreads [8] - Market divergence: There are different views on the future direction. One side believes that prices are difficult to fall sharply before macro risks (war) subside; the other side believes that as macro risks are released, the market will return to fundamentals (bumper harvest in South America and sufficient domestic supply), and prices face downward pressure, waiting for new positive drivers such as North American planting season weather and US agricultural policies [8] - Trading strategy: Unilateral trend - based market is not strong, and band operations are more suitable. There is high attention to the May - September spread. Some views believe that the space for reverse arbitrage (short May and long September) is limited, and positive arbitrage (long May and short September) needs a driving factor (e.g., supply shortage in April). It is recommended to pay attention to trading opportunities in non - main contracts [8] Rapeseed Meal - Core view: There is a risk of being weak in stages [9] - Negative factors: The opening of Canadian rapeseed imports, with an expected monthly arrival of about 500,000 tons of rapeseed meal, will lead to obvious inventory accumulation in China. The possible discount in the delivery rules of Australian rapeseed meal may indirectly drag down the futures price [9] - Potential variables: The uncertainty of the inspection time for Canadian rapeseed imports may be a short - term speculation point. EU import demand is nearly saturated, and the global rapeseed supply pressure is concentrated in Canada, whose prices face competitive pressure [9] Vegetable Oils (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - Soybean oil: Affected by both macro - crude oil and export profits, the current price is at a high level. However, if the subsequent demand weakens, the price has downward pressure. The domestic soybean oil basis also faces the pressure of oversupply [11] - Rapeseed oil: As a necessity, the current spot basis is high, but the long - term expectation is weak. There may be inventory accumulation problems after June. There is regional price differentiation (inverted prices in coastal areas and low prices in inland areas), which may lead to the transfer of delivery pressure [11] - Palm oil: Facing inventory pressure and continuous ship purchases driven by import profits, there is a short - term imbalance between supply and demand. The setback of the B50 policy and crude oil price fluctuations are the main influencing factors [11] - Trading strategy: Some suggest considering the spread strategy of buying soybean oil and shorting rapeseed oil. For palm oil, it is recommended to directly arrange long - term contracts to avoid near - month fluctuations [11] 3. Corn and Grain Market - Price trend: The center of corn prices has moved up (e.g., the price at the northern port has risen from 2,050 yuan per ton to 2,360 yuan per ton), mainly affected by the increase in international fertilizer costs and domestic planting costs [12] - Short - term suppression: The current price is suppressed by high inventories of traders (costs are generally higher than the current market price) and weekly wheat auctions of about 800,000 tons. It is expected that the price will remain in a stalemate and difficult to break through effectively before the new wheat is listed in July - August [12] - Future outlook: The price of new - season wheat is expected to be higher than last year, but the upward space is limited. The direct impact of the Middle East conflict on domestic grain prices (through fertilizer costs) is evaluated as limited [12] 4. Pig Market - Industry status: The industry is generally in a process of deep losses and production capacity reduction, but the reduction speed is slow, and market sentiment is pessimistic [13] - Future outlook: It is generally predicted that there may be a turning point in the market in 2026, but there are differences in the specific time (e.g., the end of the second quarter or the third quarter). It takes time to reduce sow production capacity, and large - scale farms still have certain resilience [13] - Demand - side impact: The pressure on breeding profits leads to adjustments in the feed formula (e.g., using wheat to replace part of corn and soybean meal), suppressing the demand for raw materials such as soybean meal [13] 5. Other Commodities and Macroeconomic Strategy Views - Fertilizer and supply chain: Geopolitics may affect the global nitrogen fertilizer supply, which is then transmitted to agricultural product costs. There is obvious regional differentiation in the supply chain, and long - distance transportation costs have soared [14] - Repairing undervalued high - quality assets: For example, non - ferrous metals (such as lithium carbonate) and stock indexes sold off during the liquidity shock [14] - Paying attention to marginalized or fundamentally independent commodities: For example, some fine chemicals may have long - term opportunities due to limited production capacity [14] - Selecting agricultural products carefully: In the context of an overall "bear market year" and cost pressure, pay attention to varieties with independent supply - demand logic, such as sugar (both supply and demand are booming), and be aware of weather risks such as El Niño [14]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The macro - economic recovery momentum needs to be strengthened, and the monetary policy is expected to remain loose. The market is affected by factors such as the Iran situation, and there are uncertainties in various sectors, with different trends and investment suggestions for each commodity [6][9][11]. 3. Summary by Commodity Categories Fixed - Income - **Treasury Bonds**: The previous trading day saw all - round gains in treasury bond futures. The current macro data is stable, but the economic recovery momentum is weak. The yield is at a relatively low level, and there is pressure in the later market. It is recommended to be cautious [5][6]. - **Stock Index Futures**: The previous trading day, stock index futures showed mixed trends. The domestic economy is stable, but the recovery momentum is not strong. The asset valuation is low, and there is room for repair. However, due to the high uncertainty of the Iran situation, it is recommended to stay on the sidelines for now [8][9]. Precious Metals - **Gold and Silver**: The previous trading day, gold and silver futures declined. The global economic situation is affected by the Middle - East conflict, and inflation expectations are rising. The long - term logic of precious metals is still strong, but due to the uncertainty of the Iran situation, it is recommended to stay on the sidelines [11]. Base Metals - **Copper**: The previous trading day, the Shanghai copper contract declined. The supply shortage logic is still strong, but the macro - environment suppresses prices. The copper market will continue the game between macro - suppression and fundamental resilience, showing a pattern of weak shock with a bottom [56]. - **Aluminum**: The previous trading day, the Shanghai aluminum contract rose, and the alumina contract declined. The alumina supply - demand surplus pattern remains, and the electrolytic aluminum price may be weakly volatile with support at the bottom [58]. - **Zinc**: The previous trading day, the Shanghai zinc contract rose. The global zinc ore increment is steadily released, but the consumption is affected by the real - estate sector. The zinc price may be under pressure [61]. - **Lead**: The previous trading day, the Shanghai lead contract declined. The supply and demand are both weak, and the lead price may be weakly volatile [63]. - **Tin**: The previous trading day, the Shanghai tin contract declined. The supply tightness has eased, and the demand is complex. The tin price has support below, but the short - term volatility may increase [65]. - **Nickel**: The previous trading day, the Shanghai nickel contract declined. The nickel ore shortage expectation is fermenting, but the consumption is weak, and the refined nickel is in an oversupply pattern [66]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The previous trading day, INE crude oil oscillated upward. The CFTC net long position increased, but the situation of the US - Israel - Iran war has changed. It is recommended to pay attention to short - selling opportunities [22][23]. - **Polyolefins**: The previous trading day, the prices of PP and LLDPE in the market changed. Affected by the geopolitical situation, the cost pressure increased, and the price is expected to fall. It is recommended to pay attention to short - selling opportunities [25]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The previous trading day, the synthetic rubber contract rose. The current main contradiction is cost - driven, and the short - term price may maintain a strong shock [27]. - **Natural Rubber**: The previous trading day, the natural rubber contract rose. The market is in a game between multiple and short factors, and the short - term is in a wide - range shock [30]. - **PVC**: The previous trading day, the PVC contract declined. The market is in a game between cost support and high inventory. The price is expected to be strongly volatile, but the upside space is restricted [32]. - **Urea**: The previous trading day, the urea contract rose. The current contradiction is between high supply and policy ceiling. The price is weakly volatile, and the downside space is limited [35]. - **PX**: The previous trading day, the PX contract rose. The PXN spread and short - process profit are repaired, and the price may be in a wide - range shock. It is recommended to operate carefully [37]. - **PTA**: The previous trading day, the PTA contract rose. The supply increases, and the downstream reduces production. The short - term is in a multi - empty game. It is recommended to operate carefully [39]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The previous trading day, the ethylene glycol contract rose. The supply and demand are affected by the geopolitical situation, and the price needs to be treated carefully [40]. - **Short - Fiber**: The previous trading day, the short - fiber contract rose. The supply increases, and the demand weakens. It is recommended to pay attention to the geopolitical situation and device dynamics [42]. - **Bottle Chips**: The previous trading day, the bottle - chip contract rose. The supply and demand fundamentals change little, and it is recommended to participate carefully [43]. - **Soda Ash**: The previous trading day, the soda - ash contract declined. The supply is at a relatively high level, the demand is general, and the price is expected to be in a stalemate [45]. - **Glass**: The previous trading day, the glass contract declined. The production line is shrinking, the inventory removal slows down, and the price may fluctuate repeatedly [47]. - **Caustic Soda**: The previous trading day, the caustic - soda contract declined. The supply decreases slightly, the inventory does not decrease significantly, and the price is affected by exports [49]. - **Paper Pulp**: The previous trading day, the paper - pulp contract declined. The inventory accumulates, and the demand is weak, restricting the rebound height [52]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal**: The previous trading day, the soybean - meal and soybean - oil contracts rose. The Brazilian soybean harvest is progressing well, and the supply is expected to be loose in the medium - term. It is recommended to wait and see [67]. - **Palm Oil**: The previous trading day, the palm - oil contract rebounded. The export data is strong, and the inventory is at a relatively high level. It is recommended to consider closing long positions [69]. - **Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil**: The previous trading day, the rapeseed - meal and rapeseed - oil contracts changed. The market is waiting for relevant announcements and paying attention to the Middle - East situation. It is recommended to wait and see [70]. - **Cotton**: The previous trading day, the domestic cotton contract oscillated. The new - year global cotton is expected to reduce production and enter the de - stocking cycle. The medium - long - term price has support, but the short - term is affected by the quota issuance [72]. - **Sugar**: The previous trading day, the domestic sugar contract oscillated. The international situation is favorable, and the domestic supply is sufficient. The medium - long - term price has a bottom support [74]. - **Apple**: The previous trading day, the apple contract oscillated. With the Qingming Festival approaching, the demand is released, and the market is expected to be stable and strong [76]. - **Pork**: The previous trading day, the pork contract declined. The supply is abundant, the demand is weak, and it is recommended to hold short positions lightly [77]. - **Eggs**: The previous trading day, the egg contract rose. The supply is improving, and it is recommended to wait and see [79]. - **Corn and Corn Starch**: The previous trading day, the corn contract declined, and the corn - starch contract rose. The domestic corn supply and demand are basically balanced, and the corn - starch demand recovers slightly [80]. - **Logs**: The previous trading day, the log contract rose. The inventory decreases, the downstream demand improves, and the market is affected by the geopolitical situation [82].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No explicit industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term conflict risk in the Middle East has not dissipated, and there is a possibility of situation downgrade in the medium - term. The market has lost trust in the extreme - pressure script, and the global asset volatility is increasing. The reversal of global liquidity expectations is the reason behind the invalidation of geopolitical credit. [2] - In the domestic market, Chinese assets have the attributes of a global safe - haven, but the A - share market is still in the stage of releasing external risk transmission and is difficult to remain unscathed. The current core investment strategy should be defensive counter - attack. [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Financial Futures - **Macro**: Trump postponed the attack on Iranian energy facilities by 10 days to April 6. The US and Iran are in a state of both negotiation and conflict. The OECD expects the global economic growth rate to be 2.9% in 2026 and rise slightly to 3% in 2027, while the US economic growth rate will slow down. [1] - **RMB Exchange Rate**: The cease - fire negotiation between the US and Iran is deadlocked. The international oil price has risen again, and the US dollar index has received safe - haven support. The RMB exchange rate is under pressure. It is recommended that export enterprises lock in forward exchange settlement at around 6.93, and import enterprises adopt a rolling foreign exchange purchase strategy at the 6.85 mark. [3] - **Stock Index**: The stock index fell collectively due to the repeated situation in the Middle East. The short - term is expected to be mainly volatile, and the large - cap stock index shows relative advantages. [4][5] - **Treasury Bonds**: The short - term is expected to be volatile. It is recommended to maintain a grid operation idea, buy more positions in batches when there are sharp drops, and sell high in a timely manner. [5][6] - **Container Shipping on the European Line**: The container shipping index (European line) futures market shows a pattern of near - term weakness and long - term strength. The short - term is expected to maintain a differentiated and volatile trend. [7][8] Commodities New Energy - **Lithium Carbonate**: Affected by the overall callback of the non - ferrous metal sector, it shows a wide - range shock. It has strong anti - decline attributes, and it is recommended to seize the low - level replenishment opportunity. [10][11] - **Industrial Silicon & Polysilicon**: The industrial silicon market maintains a wide - range shock, and the supply and demand are in a weak balance. The polysilicon market has prominent supply - demand imbalance, and the futures price has declined significantly. [12][13] Non - ferrous Metals - **Aluminum Industry Chain**: The macro - expectation suppresses the fundamentals, and the prices of domestic and foreign aluminum are weak. [15][17][18] - **Copper**: Affected by geopolitics, the copper price is weak. It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 93000 - 96500 yuan/ton. [18][21] - **Zinc**: The price is mainly volatile, and the key drivers for the upward movement of non - ferrous metals are the Iranian situation and liquidity. [22] - **Nickel - Stainless Steel**: The intraday trend is volatile. The new tax policy in Indonesia may affect the supply, and attention should be paid to the demand release rhythm. [23][24] - **Tin**: The short - term is regarded as volatile, and the key drivers for the upward movement are the Iranian situation and liquidity. [26] - **Lead**: The price is in a narrow - range shock, and it is expected to be strongly volatile. [26][27] Oils and Fats and Feeds - **Oilseeds**: The funds are gradually changing months. The large - supply logic remains unchanged in the medium - term, and the spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is expected to be repaired. It is recommended to hold the reverse spread between months. [28] - **Oils**: The market is in a volatile stage, waiting for the US biofuel policy. [29] Energy and Oil and Gas - **SC**: The oil price fluctuates upward, and it is necessary to be vigilant against the risk of chasing high. [31][32] - **Fuel Oil**: Wait for the opportunity to short at the absolute price. The market structure and profit are回调, but there is still support in the short - term. [32][33] - **Asphalt**: The cracking may be strong, and wait for the opportunity to short at the absolute price. The short - term is affected by geopolitical disturbances. [34] Precious Metals - **Platinum and Palladium**: The prices have dropped significantly. It is recommended to be strategically bullish on precious metals in the long - term, and pay attention to position control in the short - term. [36][37] - **Gold & Silver**: The prices are in a secondary adjustment. It is recommended to be strategically bullish in the long - term, and pay attention to support and resistance levels in the short - term. [38][39] Chemicals - **Pulp - Offset Paper**: The inventory of pulp has increased significantly, which has a negative impact on the futures price. The offset paper futures can try a short - selling strategy. [41][42][43] - **Pure Benzene - Styrene**: Affected by the Middle East situation, the market fluctuates. It is expected to be strongly volatile in the short - term. [44][45] - **LPG**: The supply is shrinking, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to pay attention to the bullish spread strategy after the callback. [46][47] - **PP Propylene**: The situation is unclear, and it is recommended to wait and see in the short - term. [48][50] - **Plastic**: It is in a high - level shock. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term. [51][52] - **Rubber**: The synthetic rubber may maintain a strong and wide - range shock, and the natural rubber is affected by multiple factors. It is recommended to adopt different strategies for different varieties. [53][54][56] - **Glass and Soda Ash**: The soda ash supply pressure is continuous, and the glass is restricted by supply and demand. Both are expected to be weakly volatile. [57][58] Ferrous Metals - **Rebar & Hot - Rolled Coil**: The short - term is affected by the rising cost of furnace materials, and the rebound height is limited. [59][60] - **Iron Ore**: The market is a mixture of long and short factors, showing a pattern of "strong in the near - term and weak in the long - term". [61][62] - **Coking Coal**: The price fluctuates widely with the energy supply expectation, and further rise depends on the energy logic driven by crude oil. [63][64] - **Silicon Iron & Silicon Manganese**: There is cost support at the bottom, and the short - term may have a callback. [64] Agricultural and Soft Commodities - **Pigs**: The futures price has dropped significantly. It is recommended to sell call options on the main contract or be bearish on the far - month contracts. [66][67][68] - **Cotton**: The external market is strong. The short - term is affected by the macro - risk and supply increase, but there is support at the bottom. [68][69] - **Sugar**: The short - term may maintain a volatile pattern. [70][71] - **Eggs**: The price is slightly rising. It is recommended to sell call options on the main contract. [72][73] - **Apples**: The futures price is strongly volatile, and the 05 contract is supported by the shortage of delivery products. [78][79] - **Peanuts**: The price is expected to be in a high - level shock. It is recommended to sell for hedging at high prices. [80][81] - **Red Dates**: The price is under pressure and may be in a low - level shock. [82] - **Logs**: The spot price is rising, and it is recommended to conduct range trading and light - position long - buying. [83][84]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports 2.1 Oils and Fats Industry - Malaysian BMD crude palm oil futures may break through the 4,600 ringgit resistance. Dalian palm oil futures have a chance to continue rising after breaking through the 9,700 yuan resistance. CBOT soybean oil's May contract may reach 70 cents. Domestic soybean oil has a mixed fundamental situation. Rapeseed oil has a chance to rebound, with the upper pressure range at 9,900 - 10,000 yuan [1]. 2.2 Cotton Industry - ICE cotton futures reached an 11 - month high. The US 2026 cotton planting area is expected to decrease. The domestic cotton market is expected to be slightly stronger in the short - term, and attention should be paid to spinning mills' order - receiving and macro news [2]. 2.3 Sugar Industry - ICE raw sugar futures reached a more than five - month high. The domestic sugar market is likely to maintain a high - level shock pattern in the short - term, and attention should be paid to the geopolitical situation in the Middle East and the alleviation of external risks [3]. 2.4 Red Date Industry - The red date market is currently weak both in futures and spot. It is in the low - valuation range and is expected to maintain low - level operation in the short - term [4]. 2.5 Apple Industry - The apple futures price has fallen from a high. The spot market is differentiated. The national cold - storage inventory is at a historical low, which supports the futures price. It is expected to fluctuate and consolidate in the short - term, and attention should be paid to the de - stocking of ordinary apples and weather changes [5]. 2.6 Corn and Corn Starch Industry - Corn prices are supported by limited remaining grain and rigid demand, and suppressed by grain substitution and policy releases. It will maintain a high - level shock in the range of 2,350 - 2,420 yuan/ton [7]. 2.7 Meal Industry - US soybeans have rebounded near 1,160 cents. The domestic soybean meal market has cooled down, and the short - term inventory is not loose. Attention should be paid to the planting intention report at the end of March [10]. 2.8 Pig Industry - The pig market is in a weak pattern. The spot price is expected to continue to bottom out, and the futures market may have opportunities for reverse spreads [12]. 2.9 Egg Industry - The egg supply is relatively loose, and the demand is average. The egg price may face pressure near 3,550 - 3,600 [14]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Oils and Fats Industry - **Price Changes**: On March 26, the average price of soybean oil in Jiangsu increased by 1.02% to 8,950 yuan/ton; the price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong increased by 1.03% to 9,603 yuan/ton; the price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu increased by 1.28% to 10,268 yuan/ton [1]. - **Spread Changes**: The soybean - palm oil spot spread decreased by 1.24%, and the rapeseed - soybean oil spot spread increased by 3.13% [1]. 3.2 Cotton Industry - **Futures Market**: The price of cotton 2605 increased by 1.35% to 15,420 yuan/ton, and the price of cotton 2609 increased by 1.24% to 12,242 yuan/ton [2]. - **Spot Market**: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton increased by 0.14% to 16,597 yuan/ton, and the CC Index of 3128B increased by 0.20% to 16,745 yuan/ton [2]. - **Industry Situation**: The small - scale inventory decreased by 100%, the industrial inventory increased by 14.5%, the import volume decreased by 19.0%, and the bonded - area inventory increased by 9.8% [2]. 3.3 Sugar Industry - **Futures Market**: The price of sugar 2605 increased by 0.63% to 5,463 yuan/ton, and the price of sugar 2609 increased by 0.44% to 5,485 yuan/ton [3]. - **Spot Market**: The price in Nanning remained unchanged at 5,470 yuan/ton, and the price in Kunming increased by 0.09% to 5,325 yuan/ton [3]. - **Industry Situation**: The national sugar production decreased by 4.69%, the sales volume decreased by 27.39%, and the industrial inventory increased by 17.03% [3]. 3.4 Red Date Industry - **Futures Market**: The price of red date 2605 decreased by 0.62% to 8,835 yuan/ton, and the price of red date 2607 decreased by 0.94% to 9,060 yuan/ton [4]. - **Spot Market**: The prices of Cangzhou's special - grade, first - grade, and second - grade red dates remained unchanged [4]. - **Industry Situation**: As of March 27, the inventory of 36 sample points was 11,459 tons, a decrease of 81 tons from last week [4]. 3.5 Apple Industry - **Futures Market**: The price of apple 2605 decreased by 0.32% to 9,946 yuan/ton, and the price of apple 2610 increased by 0.21% to 8,684 yuan/ton [5]. - **Spot Market**: The arrival volume of some fruit wholesale markets increased, and the national cold - storage inventory decreased by 5.69% to 441.79 tons as of March 26 [5]. 3.6 Corn and Corn Starch Industry - **Corn**: The price of corn 2605 remained unchanged at 2,376 yuan/ton, the basis remained unchanged at 14 yuan/ton, and the 5 - 9 spread decreased by 26.09% [7]. - **Corn Starch**: The price of corn starch 2605 increased by 0.07% to 2,765 yuan/ton, the basis decreased by 2.39% [7]. 3.7 Meal Industry - **Soybean Meal**: The spot price in Jiangsu remained unchanged at 3,280 yuan/ton, the futures price of M2605 increased by 0.68% to 2,952 yuan/ton, and the basis decreased by 5.75% [10]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: The spot price in Jiangsu increased by 0.39% to 2,570 yuan/ton, the futures price of RM2605 increased by 0.21% to 2,344 yuan/ton, and the basis increased by 2.26% [10]. 3.8 Pig Industry - **Futures Market**: The price of the main contract of live pigs 2605 decreased by 1.45% to 9,835 yuan/ton, and the price of live pigs 2607 decreased by 0.53% to 11,250 yuan/ton [12]. - **Spot Market**: The spot prices in various regions generally decreased, and the sample - point slaughter volume increased by 0.93% [12]. 3.9 Egg Industry - **Futures Market**: The price of the egg 04 contract increased by 2.64% to 3,418 yuan/500KG, and the price of the egg 05 contract increased by 2.99% to 3,512 yuan/500KG [14]. - **Spot Market**: The egg - producing area price increased by 0.47% to 3.30 yuan/jin, and the base difference increased by 28.03% [14]. - **Industry Situation**: The egg - laying hen chick price increased by 2.86% to 3.60 yuan/feather, and the egg - feed ratio decreased by 9.98% [14].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Views of the Report - The global economic growth outlook is affected by the uncertainty in the Middle East situation, with potential impacts on inflation and economic growth. The market is highly sensitive to geopolitical events, especially the conflict between the US and Iran, which has a significant impact on various futures markets [20]. - Different futures markets have different trends and influencing factors. For example, the stock index futures are affected by the decline of US stocks and global risk - preference changes; the bond futures are influenced by the uncertainty of the Middle East war and the central bank's monetary policy; the agricultural product futures are affected by factors such as supply and demand, weather, and policies; the black metal futures are affected by overseas sentiment, raw material supply, and downstream demand; the non - ferrous metal futures are affected by geopolitical conflicts, supply - demand fundamentals, and macro - economic factors; the shipping and carbon market futures are affected by geopolitical situations, supply - demand relationships, and policy factors; the energy - chemical futures are affected by the negotiation between the US and Iran, supply - demand balance, and energy price fluctuations. Summary by Directory Financial Derivatives - **Stock Index Futures**: The decline of US stocks affects market sentiment. The stock index fell across the board on Thursday, and the futures contracts also declined. The market is in a wait - and - see state, and short - term indexes are expected to continue to fluctuate [20][21][22]. - **Bond Futures**: The risk preference in the market is volatile. The bond futures closed higher on Thursday. The central bank's net injection of short - term liquidity keeps the market funds stable. The future direction of the bond market may be determined by whether the energy price increase will be transmitted to the domestic core inflation [24][25]. Agricultural Products - **Protein Meal**: The market has increased disturbance factors, and the price shows a wide - range shock. The supply of soybean meal is expected to increase, and the price may decline in the future [28][29]. - **Sugar**: The international sugar price is expected to be strong due to the reduction of sugar production expectations in major producing countries. The domestic sugar price is expected to follow the international price slightly, with a trend of being strong [30][32][33]. - **Oil and Fat Sector**: The oil and fat market maintains a high - level shock. The supply of palm oil in Malaysia is expected to continue to decrease in March, and the domestic soybean oil inventory is still high. The US biodiesel policy is yet to be determined [34][36]. - **Corn/Corn Starch**: The wheat auction price has decreased, and the corn futures price shows a weak shock. The deep - processing demand has increased, but the supply pressure still exists [37][40][41]. - **Hogs**: The supply pressure has increased, and the price has generally declined. The feed price has a greater impact on the breeding profit, and the overall inventory of hogs is still large [42][43]. - **Peanuts**: The spot price of peanuts is strong, and the futures price shows a strong shock. The import volume has decreased significantly, and the oil factory still has a profit [45][46]. - **Eggs**: The demand has recovered, and the egg price is mainly stable. The supply of eggs is relatively loose, and it is not recommended to chase the increase [50][51]. - **Apples**: The demand for apples is good, and the price is firm. The inventory of cold - storage apples is low, but the upward momentum of the May contract is limited [52][53]. - **Cotton - Cotton Yarn**: The cotton price has strong support at the bottom and shows a shock - strengthening trend. The supply in this year is basically determined, and there is a rumor of production reduction in the new year. The demand in the downstream market is good [55][57]. Black Metals - **Steel**: Overseas sentiment affects the futures price, and the steel market lacks a trend - type market. The demand for steel is still recovering, but the export is affected by the US - Iran conflict [59]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The price fluctuates greatly, and the trend is not obvious. The market is mainly driven by funds and emotions, and the geopolitical situation needs to be closely monitored [62][63]. - **Iron Ore**: The supply is still disturbed, and the ore price is running at a high level. The market rumors are numerous, and the supply - demand situation is complex. It is recommended that spot enterprises conduct hedging at a high level [64][65]. - **Ferroalloys**: Affected by the large - scale fluctuation of crude oil, the price is running at a high - level shock. The supply and demand of silicon - iron and manganese - silicon are in a positive feedback, but they are easily affected by energy prices [66][67]. Non - Ferrous Metals - **Gold and Silver**: The market maintains a shock. The US - Iran negotiation is in a stalemate, and the risk of war escalation still exists. The price is affected by factors such as energy prices and central bank gold sales [69][70][71]. - **Platinum and Palladium**: The precious metals are in a weak shock. The market is concerned about the inflation caused by energy prices, and the unilateral position risk is high. Platinum can be considered for short - term long positions, and palladium is expected to follow weakly [74][75]. - **Copper**: Attention should be paid to the progress of the US - Iran negotiation. The geopolitical situation is complex, and the supply of copper ore is still tight. The price direction is not clear [78]. - **Alumina**: Attention should be paid to the mining policy in Guinea and the Middle East geopolitical conflict. The supply of bauxite may be reduced, and the price of alumina is affected by market sentiment [80][81]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The geopolitical conflict has uncertainty. The aluminum production capacity in the Middle East may be affected by raw material shortages [83]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: The geopolitical situation is uncertain. The supply of scrap aluminum is restricted, and the downstream demand is weak [87]. - **Zinc**: Attention should be paid to the macro and capital emotions. The basic situation at home and abroad supports the zinc price, but the macro uncertainty still exists [91]. - **Lead**: The price is in a low - level shock. The domestic secondary lead smelting is in a loss, but the consumption may improve in the peak season [92]. - **Nickel**: The short - term price is dominated by the macro situation. The supply - demand gap in March has narrowed, and the cost support is strong, but the price is still in a shock [95]. - **Stainless Steel**: Supported by the cost, it follows the nickel price. The chromium - based raw materials are rising, and the inventory is being reduced, but the supply may be loose in April [98]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The futures price reaches the upper limit of the range, and it is recommended to participate in short - positions lightly. The supply - demand situation has no obvious change, and the industry meeting may have an impact on the price [99]. - **Polysilicon**: The demand is weak, and a short - selling idea is recommended. The production in March has increased, and the inventory may accumulate in April [102]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The supply disturbance supports the price to run at a high level. The supply in April may be affected by the reduction of imports from Zimbabwe, and the price has both support and pressure [103]. - **Tin**: The US - Iran peace negotiation is in doubt, and the tin price is under pressure. The Middle East situation affects the helium export, which may be transmitted to the global semiconductor supply chain [106]. Shipping and Carbon Market - **Container Shipping**: The US postpones the energy strike against Iran for 10 days, and the spot price is expected to be reduced. The near - month and far - month contracts have different trends, and the geopolitical risk needs to be vigilant [108][110][111]. - **Dry Bulk Freight**: The bad weather in Western Australia causes concerns about ore shipments, and the demand for steel mills to replenish inventory supports the rent of large ships to rise. The market is affected by the US - Iran negotiation and the shipping situation in the Middle East [112][114][115]. - **Carbon Market**: The trading in the Chinese carbon market is dull, and the EU carbon market has the March contract delivery. The carbon price in the EU is expected to be in a shock - strengthening trend, and the Chinese carbon price may be affected by factors such as policy and demand [116][117][120]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The negotiation prospect is still unclear. The supply gap still exists, and the international oil price maintains high volatility [123]. - **Asphalt**: The supply contraction exists, and attention should be paid to the near - end oil price fluctuation risk. The downstream demand recovers slowly, and the social inventory is high [126][127]. - **Fuel Oil**: The difference between high - sulfur and low - sulfur prices should pay attention to the low - sulfur production reduction and the start - up rhythm of high - sulfur peak - season demand. The Singapore fuel oil inventory is at a high level, and the supply of low - sulfur fuel oil is tight [127][129]. - **LPG**: It fluctuates around the geopolitical situation. The external market price of LPG has fallen, and the domestic price is affected by the negotiation situation [131]. - **Natural Gas**: The geopolitical risk is repeated, and the upward trend remains unchanged. The supply of LNG in Qatar is interrupted, and the market supply gap is gradually accumulating [133][134]. - **PX & PTA**: The supply has an expected unplanned reduction, and PTA enterprises are forced to reduce production. The PX device is in the traditional maintenance season, and the downstream enterprises are reducing production [137][138]. - **BZ & EB**: The refinery's load reduction affects the pure benzene supply, and the benzene import volume decreases year - on - year. The downstream demand is expected to pick up, and the price is in a shock - strengthening trend [140][141]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The import volume is revised down. The domestic and overseas production is affected, and the 4 - month import volume is expected to be significantly reduced [144]. - **Short - Fiber**: The processing margin fluctuates within a range. The sales of short - fiber factories are differentiated, and it short - term follows the trend of polyester raw materials [146][147]. - **Bottle Chips**: The inventory is continuously being reduced. The production load of bottle - chip factories has increased, and the inventory is being reduced during the procurement peak season [148]. - **Propylene**: The load continues to decline this cycle. The cost increases, and the supply risk increases. The domestic and foreign production is affected, and the demand is gradually recovering [150][151]. - **Plastic PP**: The inventory of polyolefins of the two major oil companies accumulates. The market price is in a shock - strengthening trend, but the downstream demand is not strong [153][154]. - **Caustic Soda**: The price is weakening. The supply is slightly reduced, the demand is slightly decreased, and the profit of chlor - alkali enterprises is in a loss [156][158]. - **PVC**: It is mainly in a shock. The global supply of PVC is expected to be reduced, and the domestic supply also has a contraction expectation [159]. - **Soda Ash**: It is in a high - level shock. The supply is reduced, the demand growth is tested, and the price is expected to be weakly shocked [161][162]. - **Glass**: It is in a shock - decline. The inventory in the middle - stream is high, the demand is weak, and the price is under pressure [164][166]. - **Methanol**: It is in a wide - range shock. The production in Iran is reduced, the domestic import is expected to be reduced, and the supply - demand situation is changing [167][169]. - **Urea**: It is mainly in a shock. The domestic production is at a high level, the international supply is tight, and the price is affected by policies [172]. - **Pulp**: The inventory continues to rise, and the supply pressure is still high. The supply exceeds the demand, and the demand support is insufficient [176][178]. - **Offset Printing Paper**: The inventory is high, and the market is under pressure. The supply - demand relationship is in a weak balance, and the price is weak [183]. - **Logs**: The market is generally strong. The cost support is strong, and the price is expected to be strong in the short term [185][186]. - **Natural Rubber and No. 20 Rubber**: The tire production increases marginally. The export of Vietnamese rubber has changed, and the domestic tire production line is increasing [187][190]. - **Butadiene Rubber**: The tire production increases marginally. The market situation is similar to that of natural rubber, and the production of the tire production line is increasing [191][194].

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is an agricultural products morning report released on March 27, 2026, by the agricultural products team of the research center [1] Group 2: Corn/Starch Price Data - From March 20 to March 26, 2026, the price of corn in Changchun remained at 2230, while the price in other locations had minor fluctuations. The price of starch in Heilongjiang and Weifang remained at 2900 and 3050 respectively. The processing profit of starch increased by 10 [2] Market Analysis - Short - term: The supply of corn is tight, which supports the price, but the increase in policy wheat supply and the increase in corn circulation may suppress the price. For starch, the tight raw material supply supports price increases, but weak downstream consumption may limit the rise [3] - Long - term: For corn, focus on import and domestic auction policies. For starch, focus on downstream consumption rhythm and inventory changes [3] Group 3: Sugar Price Data - From March 20 to March 26, 2026, the spot prices in Liuzhou and Nanning remained unchanged, while the price in Kunming increased by 5. The basis in Liuzhou decreased by 34 [4] Market Analysis - International: The fundamentals are slightly stronger, with India lowering its production estimate and ISO lowering the global surplus estimate for the 25/26 sugar season. Crude oil prices affect raw sugar valuation [5] - Domestic: After the holiday, the market discussed import policies, and the futures market was volatile and strong. The cost of out - of - quota imports was low, but there was hedging pressure on the futures market [5] Group 4: Cotton/Cotton Yarn Price Data - From March 20 to March 26, 2026, the price of 3128 cotton increased by 70. The 32S spinning profit decreased by 74 [6] Market Analysis - The low initial inventory offsets most of the production increase. With the expansion of domestic textile production, good downstream profits, and favorable consumption policies, cotton demand is expected to improve. The decrease in Xinjiang's planting area in the new season makes cotton suitable for long - term investment [6] Group 5: Eggs Price Data - From March 20 to March 26, 2026, the price in Hubei increased by 0.04, and the basis decreased by 208 [8] Market Analysis - The slowdown in chicken culling is likely due to farmers' active delay in culling. The increase in replenishment in January - February and good replenishment sentiment in March - April slow down the capacity reduction process. However, rising feed costs compress profit margins, and attention should be paid to farmers' culling sentiment. Adopt a reverse spread strategy [9] Group 6: Apples Price Data - From March 20 to March 26, 2026, the spot prices in Shandong and Shaanxi remained unchanged. The national inventory decreased by 14, Shandong inventory increased by 32, and Shaanxi inventory decreased by 18 [11][12] Market Analysis - The apple market mainly trades high - quality goods. In the western region, the supply of high - quality goods is limited, and the number of merchants decreased in the second half of the week. In Shandong, the number of merchants looking for high - quality goods increased, and the price of high - quality goods was stable with a slight increase. The sales atmosphere in the sales area was not strong, and there was no obvious backlog in the transit warehouse [12] Group 7: Pigs Price Data - From March 20 to March 26, 2026, the prices in various production areas decreased, and the basis decreased by 5 [12] Market Analysis - The spot price decreased slightly over the weekend, with weak demand and sufficient supply. The reduction of pig production capacity is limited. In the medium - term, there may be a supply - demand mismatch. The market is affected by high supply, policy - driven production reduction, and market sentiment. The futures price has a premium, and attention should be paid to the expected difference [12]

Report Investment Rating - There is no information provided about the industry investment rating in the report. Core Viewpoints - The US intends to cease fire for a month and propose a "15 - item condition" peace - negotiation plan to Iran, which leads to a significant drop in international oil prices. This situation is bearish for the prices of raw sugar, Zhengzhou sugar, grains, and oils. The strategies for these commodities are to turn to a wait - and - see approach [3][10][13]. - The newly issued 300,000 - ton import quota in China is short - term bearish for Zhengzhou cotton prices but bullish for US cotton prices. In the medium term, with the continuous increase in downstream operating rates, Zhengzhou cotton prices have temporarily found support at the bottom and rebounded. It is recommended to try to go long on dips [6][7]. - For eggs, although the production capacity is on a downward trend, the absolute supply level remains high, and the pace of capacity reduction slows down due to expectations. The spot price is affected by pulsed demand, showing a relatively strong overall trend, but the future price increase space and sustainability are questionable. The idea is to short on rallies for the near - term contracts and pay attention to the support brought by cost increases for the far - term contracts [16]. - For pigs, the supply is in a concentrated realization period while the demand is limited. The spot price is weak, and the basis for price increase in the medium term is still poor. With more regions having prices below 10 yuan and piglets' prices falling in the peak season, panic spreads, driving the futures price to decline rapidly. The short - term spot market still lacks factors to break the negative cycle, and the near - term contracts may remain weak. Although there are more differences in the far - term contracts after the valuation has moved down, the production capacity has not been significantly reduced, and the basis for price increase under the premium situation is still insufficient. It is advisable to wait and see for now [19]. Summary by Commodity Sugar - **Market Information**: From January to February 2026, China imported 280,000 tons and 240,000 tons of sugar respectively, an increase of 220,000 tons compared with the same period last year, with a total increase of 440,000 tons. In February, the cumulative sugar production in the country was 9.26 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 455,000 tons; the monthly sugar sales were 750,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 266,000 tons; the industrial inventory was 5.81 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 840,000 tons. As of March 15, 2026, in the 2025/26 sugar - crushing season, India's cumulative sugar production was 26.21 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.49 million tons; Thailand's sugar production reached 10.27 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 545,000 tons. The International Sugar Organization (ISO) predicted at the end of February that due to lower - than - expected sugar production in India and Thailand, the global sugar production in the 2025/26 sugar - crushing season is expected to be 181.29 million tons [2]. - **Strategy**: The US's cease - fire intention and the decline in international oil prices are bearish for raw sugar and Zhengzhou sugar prices. The strategy is to turn to a wait - and - see approach [3]. Cotton - **Market Information**: From January to February 2026, China imported 210,000 tons and 170,000 tons of cotton respectively, an increase of 60,000 tons and 50,000 tons compared with the same period last year; imported 160,000 tons and 130,000 tons of cotton yarn respectively, an increase of 60,000 tons and 20,000 tons compared with the same period last year. The National Development and Reform Commission issued an additional 300,000 - ton processing trade import quota with preferential tariff rates outside the tariff quota. From March 5th to 12th, the US's current - year cotton export sales were 46,400 tons, with cumulative export sales of 2.1919 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 178,400 tons; among them, the export to China was 2,400 tons that week, with cumulative exports to China of 106,500 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 86,800 tons. As of the week of March 20th, the spinning mill operating rate was 78.6%, a 2.6 - percentage - point increase from the previous week; the national commercial cotton inventory was 5.04 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 390,000 tons. The USDA's March forecast for the 2025/26 global cotton production was 26.34 million tons, a 240,000 - ton increase from the February forecast and a 540,000 - ton increase from the previous year; the inventory - to - consumption ratio was 64.42%, a 1.15 - percentage - point increase from the February forecast and a 2.4 - percentage - point increase from the previous year. The US production forecast in March was 3.03 million tons, the same as the February forecast, with the export forecast remaining unchanged, and the inventory - to - consumption ratio was 30.43%, the same as before. Brazil's production forecast increased by 160,000 tons to 4.25 million tons; India's production forecast remained at 5.12 million tons; China's production forecast increased by 100,000 tons to 7.73 million tons [5]. - **Strategy**: The newly issued 300,000 - ton import quota in China is short - term bearish for Zhengzhou cotton prices but bullish for US cotton prices. In the medium term, with the continuous increase in downstream operating rates, Zhengzhou cotton prices have temporarily found support at the bottom and rebounded. It is recommended to try to go long on dips. The cooling of the US - Iran situation is bullish for cotton prices [6][7]. Protein Meal - **Market Information**: S&P Global predicted that the US corn planting area in 2026 would reach 95.2 million acres, higher than the 95 million acres predicted in January. The US soybean planting area forecast was raised to 85 million acres, higher than the 84.5 million acres predicted in January. From March 5th to 12th, the US exported 300,000 tons of soybeans, with the current - year cumulative soybean exports of 36.79 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 8.84 million tons; among them, the export to China was 80,000 tons that week, and the current - year cumulative exports to China were 10.98 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 10.65 million tons. As of the week of March 20th, the sample soybean port inventory was 5.13 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.52 million tons; the soybean crushing plant operating rate was 54.22%, a 14.01 - percentage - point increase year - on - year. The USDA's March forecast for the 2025/26 global soybean production was 427.17 million tons, a 990,000 - ton decrease from the February forecast and a 28,000 - ton increase from the previous year. The inventory - to - consumption ratio was 29.54%, a 0.01 - percentage - point decrease from February and a 0.3 - percentage - point decrease from the previous year. The US soybean production forecast was 115.99 million tons, the same as the February forecast; Brazil's production forecast was 180 million tons, the same as the February forecast; Argentina's production forecast was 48 million tons, a 500,000 - ton decrease from the February forecast. In the March forecast, the US export volume forecast remained at 42.86 million tons [9]. - **Strategy**: The cooling of the US - Iran situation is bearish for grain prices. The customs' relaxation of the inspection standards for Brazilian soybean imports is also bearish for meal prices. The subsequent price trend depends on the soybean import arrival rhythm and the progress of the US - Iran event. It is advisable to wait and see in the short term [10]. Oils - **Market Information**: The President of Indonesia stated that Indonesian coal, crude palm oil, and their derivative production enterprises are not allowed to export relevant products before meeting domestic demand to ensure national energy and important commodity supply security. The Southern Peninsula Palm Oil Millers' Association (SPPOMA) data showed that from March 1st to 15th, 2026, Malaysia's palm oil production decreased by 5.28% month - on - month. The Deputy Minister of Energy of Indonesia said that the government is studying the possibility of restarting the B50 mandatory blending policy in the middle of this year. The Indonesian Bureau of Statistics data showed that in January 2026, Indonesia's palm oil export volume was 2.3 million tons, a 490,000 - ton decrease from the previous month and an 860,000 - ton increase year - on - year. According to the MPOB data, in February, Malaysia's palm oil production was 1.28 million tons, a 300,000 - ton decrease from the previous month and a 90,000 - ton increase year - on - year; the export volume was 1.13 million tons, a 330,000 - ton decrease from the previous month and a 130,000 - ton increase year - on - year; the inventory was 2.7 million tons, a 120,000 - ton decrease from the previous month and a 1.19 million - ton increase year - on - year. AmSpec data showed that from March 1st to 20th, 2026, Malaysia's palm oil product export volume was 1.166 million tons, a 49.6% increase from the same period of the previous month. ITS data showed that from March 1st to 20th, Malaysia's palm oil product export volume was 1.191 million tons, a 38.1% increase from the same period of the previous month. According to the Indian Refiners Association (SEA) data, as of the end of February, India's vegetable oil inventory was 1.87 million tons, a 120,000 - ton increase from the previous month and basically the same as the same period last year. As of the week of March 20th, the domestic sample data of the three major oil inventories was 1.95 million tons, a 95,000 - ton decrease year - on - year [12]. - **Strategy**: The cooling of the US - Iran situation leads to a significant drop in international oil prices, which is bearish for oil prices. It is advisable to turn to a wait - and - see approach in the short term [13]. Eggs - **Market Information**: Yesterday, most egg prices in the country were stable. The average price in the main production areas increased by 0.01 yuan to 3.29 yuan per catty. The price of large - sized eggs in Heishan remained at 3.1 yuan per catty, and the price in Guantao increased by 0.07 yuan to 3.18 yuan per catty. The supply was normal, the overall market digestion was average, and the participation sentiment in some areas improved. It is expected that the short - term national egg prices may be stable or increase [15]. - **Strategy**: Although the production capacity is on a downward trend, the absolute supply level remains high, and the pace of capacity reduction slows down due to expectations. The spot price is affected by pulsed demand, showing a relatively strong overall trend, but the future price increase space and sustainability are questionable. The idea is to short on rallies for the near - term contracts and pay attention to the support brought by cost increases for the far - term contracts [16]. Pigs - **Market Information**: Yesterday, domestic pig prices generally continued to decline, with small increases in some low - price areas. The average price in Henan decreased by 0.13 yuan to 9.58 yuan per kilogram, the average price in Sichuan decreased by 0.07 yuan to 9.44 yuan per kilogram, and the average price in Guizhou increased by 0.04 yuan to 8.91 yuan per kilogram. The market transaction enthusiasm was average, and it was difficult for farmers to sell pigs. It is expected that some regions may still have the intention to reduce prices today, and some low - price areas in the south may maintain a wait - and - see attitude [18]. - **Strategy**: The supply is in a concentrated realization period while the demand is limited. The spot price is weak, and the basis for price increase in the medium term is still poor. With more regions having prices below 10 yuan and piglets' prices falling in the peak season, panic spreads, driving the futures price to decline rapidly. The short - term spot market still lacks factors to break the negative cycle, and the near - term contracts may remain weak. Although there are more differences in the far - term contracts after the valuation has moved down, the production capacity has not been significantly reduced, and the basis for price increase under the premium situation is still insufficient. It is advisable to wait and see for now [19].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The market's short - term outlook for the negotiation between the US and Iran is not optimistic, and risk appetite has significantly declined. A - share trading volume has shrunk, and risky assets are still under pressure. The bond market may weaken in the short term. The prices of various commodities are affected by factors such as geopolitical situations, supply - demand relationships, and policy changes [1][3][13][17][19] - The dollar index is expected to rise in the short term. For stock index futures, it is recommended to hold low - position long positions and wait and see. For bond futures, short - term operations should be fast - in and fast - out, closely following the war situation. For various commodities, different investment suggestions are provided according to their respective fundamentals [14][18][20] Summary by Directory 1. Financial News and Reviews 1.1 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - The US initial jobless claims met market expectations. Trump postponed the strike on Iranian energy facilities to April 6th, and the market's short - term expectation for the negotiation agreement has decreased, leading to a weakening of risk appetite. The US dollar index is expected to rise in the short term [11][13][14] 1.2 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - Trump will visit China in mid - May. A - share trading volume has shrunk below 2 trillion yuan, and the stock index rebound is blocked. The US - Iran situation remains deadlocked, and risky assets are under pressure. It is recommended to hold low - position long positions and wait and see [15][17][18] 1.3 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank conducted 224 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations. If the war continues, high oil prices and inflation are the core negative factors for the bond market. The bond market may weaken in the short term, and strategies should be fast - in and fast - out [19][20] 2. Commodity News and Reviews 2.1 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - The inventory of five major steel products decreased by 483,900 tons week - on - week. In mid - March, the daily output of crude steel from key steel enterprises increased month - on - month. The demand for finished products is average, and the market expectation is unstable. It is recommended to hold a light position and wait and see [21][22][25] 2.2 Black Metals (Coking Coal/Coke) - The imported Mongolian coking coal market is stable. The first round of coke price increase has not been implemented. In the short term, the coking coal futures price is supported, but in the long term, the price increase is restricted. It is necessary to track the resumption of iron - making production, terminal demand, and coal mine resumption progress [26][27] 2.3 Agricultural Products (Corn) - Corn consumption by deep - processing enterprises increased week - on - week, and imports from January to February increased significantly. The supply is expected to increase, and the demand has support. It is expected that corn will maintain a high - level shock pattern, and it is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of selling call options [28][29][31] 2.4 Agricultural Products (Pigs) - The long - term over - capacity problem in the pig market persists. In the short term, the spot price is under pressure. For the near - month contract, it is recommended to sell on rallies; for the far - month contract, it is recommended to wait and see [32] 2.5 Non - ferrous Metals (Copper) - The joint mining plan of Codelco and Anglo American has been approved. The macro and fundamental negative factors for copper are weakening. It is expected that the copper price will continue to build a bottom in a shock, and it is recommended to wait and see in the short term and pay attention to the internal - external positive arbitrage strategy [33][36] 2.6 Non - ferrous Metals (Platinum) - The prices of platinum and palladium declined. The supply is relatively rigid, and the demand has support. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of platinum's oversold rebound, wait and see for palladium, and pay attention to the long - platinum short - palladium opportunity in the medium term [37][38][39] 2.7 Non - ferrous Metals (Lead) - Boliden's Garpenberg mine reduced production due to an earthquake. The domestic social inventory of lead decreased. The lead price may continue to build a bottom, and it is recommended to pay attention to the mid - line buying opportunity at low prices [40][41] 2.8 Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc) - The domestic zinc inventory decreased. Boliden's Garpenberg mine reduced production, and the zinc price has long - term technical support. It is recommended to manage positions well when going long, and wait and see for arbitrage [42][43][44] 2.9 Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - Yahua Group signed a purchase agreement. The supply of lithium ore is tight, and the demand has support. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of buying on dips [45][47][48] 2.10 Non - ferrous Metals (Tin) - The domestic and LME tin inventories changed. The supply and demand of tin are both weak, and the main contradiction is the continuous fermentation of the US - Israel - Iran conflict [49][50][51] 2.11 Energy Chemicals (Urea) - The urea enterprise inventory decreased. The urea futures price rebounded, but the upper limit of the 05 contract is restricted. It is recommended to purchase according to rigid demand and reduce speculative operations [52][53] 2.12 Energy Chemicals (Methanol) - Jiangsu Sierbang's MTO device restarted, which is beneficial to the methanol futures price. It is recommended to take a bullish view and buy on dips [54] 2.13 Energy Chemicals (PVC) - The PVC price declined slightly. The supply may decrease, and the cost has increased. The market may continue the situation of supply contraction and cost support [55][56] 2.14 Energy Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - The price of caustic soda in Shandong is stable. The supply may decrease in April, and the demand is stable. The price of 32% ion - exchange membrane caustic soda has increased. The supply - demand situation may improve marginally, but the increase space may be restricted [60][61] 2.15 Energy Chemicals (Fuel Oil) - The Singapore fuel oil inventory increased. The market is worried about short - term supply, and the Asian low - sulfur market may be in short supply. It is recommended to wait and see cautiously [62][63][64] 2.16 Energy Chemicals (Soda Ash) - The soda ash inventory changed little. The supply is increasing, and the demand is average. The industry is in a situation of high supply and high inventory. It is recommended to pay attention to the short - selling opportunity after the energy price inflection point [65] 2.17 Energy Chemicals (Float Glass) - The inventory of float glass decreased slightly. The supply pressure has decreased, but the demand is average, and the mid - stream inventory pressure is large. The glass futures price may have limited rebound [66] 2.18 Shipping Index (Container Freight Rate) - China's foreign - trade container throughput increased in the first two months. The spot price is under pressure, and the near - month contract is returning to the spot logic. The far - month contract is easy to rise and difficult to fall in the short term. It is recommended to maintain a shock strategy and pay attention to the US - Iran situation [67]