1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - High - frequency economic data focuses on four aspects: production seasonally cools down; the Spring Festival movie box - office drops nearly 40% year - on - year while tourist trips and spending hit new highs due to an extra holiday day; overall prices decline with oil, coking coal, and rebar prices falling, non - ferrous prices rising slightly, and agricultural products entering a seasonal downward trend; affected by the Spring Festival, subway ridership and peak congestion index in first - tier cities are low, while flight volume is high. Short - term attention should be paid to the progress of front - loaded fiscal efforts and the recovery of the real estate market [2][31]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Production: Seasonal Obvious Cooling - Steel: In the week of February 20, the coke oven capacity utilization rate decreased by 0.11 pct, the blast furnace operating rate increased by 0.6 pct, and the rebar output increased by 1.22 tons. The inventory of rebar increased by 57.48 tons [9]. - Petroleum Asphalt: In the week of February 11, the operating rate of domestic petroleum asphalt plants decreased by 2.8 pct at a low level [9]. - Chemicals: On February 24, the PX operating rate remained flat compared with the previous week, while the PTA operating rate decreased by 3.86 pct [9]. - Automobile Tires: In the week of February 19, the full - steel tire operating rate decreased by 28.2 pct, and the semi - steel tire operating rate decreased by 45.2 pct [10]. Demand: Spring Festival Tourism and Consumption Hit New Highs, Movie Box - Office Drops Significantly Year - on - Year - Real Estate: In the week of February 22, the commercial housing transaction area decreased, the inventory - to - sales ratio increased significantly, the land supply area dropped sharply, and the residential land transaction premium rate decreased [13]. - Movie Box - Office: In 2026, the Spring Festival movie box - office was 5.752 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 39.5%; the number of moviegoers was 120 million, a year - on - year decrease of 35.8% [13]. - Tourism Consumption: Due to an extra day of the Spring Festival holiday, the number of tourist trips and spending both hit new highs. During the 9 - day Spring Festival holiday, there were 596 million domestic tourist trips and the total domestic tourism spending was 803.483 billion yuan [14]. - Automobile Sales: In the week of February 8, the average daily retail sales of passenger cars decreased by 9,218 units, and the average daily wholesale sales decreased by 15,720 units [18]. - Shipping Freight Rates: In the week of February 13, the SCFI index decreased by 1.19%, and the CCFI index decreased by 3.03%. On February 24, the BDI index increased by 1.62% compared with the previous week [20]. Prices: Non - ferrous Prices Rise, Agricultural Products Enter a Seasonal Downward Trend - Energy: On February 24, the Brent crude oil price decreased by 1.38% to $70.77 per barrel [22]. - Coking Coal: On February 24, the coking coal futures price decreased by 1.74% to 1,100.5 yuan per ton [22]. - Metals: On February 24, the LME copper, aluminum, and zinc futures prices increased by 1.78%, 0.26%, and 0.15% respectively, while the domestic rebar futures price decreased by 0.98% [23]. - Agricultural Products: On February 24, the overall agricultural product price declined, with the agricultural product wholesale price 200 index decreasing by 0.81%. The prices of pork, eggs, vegetables, and fruits changed by - 0.17%, - 2.46%, - 2.33%, and + 1.50% respectively compared with before the festival [25]. Logistics: Flight Volume is High, Spring Festival Personnel Flow Hits a New High - Subway Ridership: On February 24, the seven - day moving average of subway ridership in Beijing decreased by 125.34 million person - times, a week - on - week decrease of 18.32%; in Shanghai, it decreased by 171.29 million person - times, a week - on - week decrease of 23.57% [26]. - Personnel Flow: During the 2026 Spring Festival holiday, the cross - regional personnel flow in the whole society reached 2.81 billion person - times, a new high. The daily average was 310 million person - times, an 8.2% increase compared with the same period last year [29]. - Flight Volume: On February 24, the seven - day moving average of domestic (excluding Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan) flight volume increased by 3.37%, that of domestic (Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan) increased by 1.08%, and that of international flights increased by 0.35% [29]. - Urban Traffic: On February 24, the seven - day moving average of the peak congestion index in first - tier cities decreased by 5.79% compared with the previous week [29].

软商品日报 光大期货软商品日报（2026 年 2 月 26 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 周三，ICE 美棉上涨 0.92%，报收 66.16 美分/磅，郑棉主力合约环比上涨 1.92%， | | | | 报收 15380 元/吨，主力合约持仓环比增加 64057 手至 82.34 万手。国际市场方面， | | | | 近期美棉价格自低位持续上行，预期与现实共振。预期方面，USDA2 月展望论坛 | | | | 预计 2026/27 年度全球、美国棉花库销比均同比下降。现实方面，最新一周数据显 | | | | 示，美国陆地棉出口净销售当周值超 10 万吨，创下近年来同期新高。国内市场方 | | | 棉花 | 面，节后郑棉连续两日增仓上行，我们认为主要驱动如下：1、ICE 美棉共振上行。 | 偏强 | | | 2、USDA2 月农业展望论坛预计 2026/27 年度中国棉花库销比同比下降。3、国内 | | | | 种植面积调减及目标价格政策预期，现在已经是 2 月下旬，再有一个月左右时间 | | | | 国内新棉就将开始种植，植棉面积调控细 ...

地址：北京市朝阳区朝阳门外大街甲 6 号万通中心 D 座 20 层（100020） 总机：010-8535 6666 注:本报告资讯信息来源于万得资讯和金十数据，冠通研究整理编辑 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读免责声明。 分析师：王静，执业资格证号 F0235424/Z0000771。 免责声明： 本报告中的信息均来源于公开资料，我公司对这些信息的准确性和完整性不作任何保证。报告中的内容和 意见仅供参考，并不构成对所述品种买卖的出价或征价。我公司及其雇员对使用本报告及其内容所引发的 任何直接或间接损失概不负责。本报告仅向特定客户传送，版权归冠通期货所有。未经我公司书面许可， 任何机构和个人均不得以任何形式翻版，复制，引用或转载。如引用、转载、刊发，须注明出处为冠通期 货股份有限公司。 资讯早间报 本文资讯内容根据网络，冠通期货编辑整理而成，仅供投资者参考。 发布日期：2026/2/26 隔夜夜盘市场走势 1. 国际贵金属期货普遍收涨，COMEX 黄金期货涨 0.14%报 5183.70 美元/盎司， COMEX 白银期货涨 1.95%报 89.21 美元/盎司。 2. 美油主力合约收跌 0.09% ...

"十五五"开局之年，2026广西代表团访港，桂港合作再次站上升级道口。在国家"双循环"战略背景 下，香港与广西正从传统的"前店后厂"模式，加速迈向"战略腹地+超级联系人"的深度协同新阶段。 这一转变并非简单的合作扩容，而是合作逻辑的系统重塑。支撑其演进的，是桂港两地在经济增长 五大核心要素——土地、劳动、资本、技术、制度上的高度互补。如何通过要素的双向流动、协同配置 与功能再造，实现真正意义上的"双向奔赴"，成为两地在新发展阶段必须回答的关键命题。 围绕这一命题，三位长期研究粤港澳与区域合作的专家，从不同维度给出了系统分析与前瞻判断。 专家分析指出，桂港合作的升级，本质上是比较优势重组与功能定位重塑的过程。 "合作远大于竞争"：要素结构决定桂港高度互补 "一国两制"研究中心总裁张志刚 衡量区域经济运行状况，最常被引用的指标是经济增长率；而解释增长动力，始终绕不开一个根本 问题——增长从何而来？ 从长期经济史视角看，决定经济增长的基本要素无外乎土地、劳动、资本、技术（含管理）以及制 度（政策环境、产权保护、市场规则等）。不同历史阶段，这些要素的重要性各有侧重，但共同作用于 增长结果。 全国政协常委、粤港澳大湾区 ...

36个大中城市粮食批发均价环比下降0.2%，同比持平。 食用油批发均价环比下降0.3%，同比下降1.5%。 猪肉批发均价环比上涨4.4%，同比下降16.5%。 牛肉批发均价环比上涨0.2%，同比上涨6.5%。 羊肉批发均价环比上涨1.2%，同比上涨4.0%。 鸡蛋批发均价环比上涨4.6%，同比下降18.2%。 白条鸡批发均价环比下降0.3%，同比下降6.3%。 30种蔬菜批发均价环比下降4.4%，同比上涨8.8%。 6种水果批发均价环比上涨1.8%，同比上涨3.8%。 商务大数据显示，1月份，全国食用农产品市场价格环比上涨0.4%。 从主要品种来看： ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Core Viewpoints - The domestic commodity futures market closed mostly higher on February 25, 2026, with base metals leading the gains [1]. - The A - share market is expected to continue a mild upward trend after the Spring Festival, but the slope will be slower than in January, pricing in the warm Spring Festival consumption and technology event hotspots. The black metal and domestic bond markets may continue to fluctuate after the festival [16]. - The US economy shows a pattern of overall slowdown in expansion and structural differentiation in multiple fields. The US GDP growth rate slowed significantly in the fourth quarter, with personal consumption being the main drag, and inflation stickiness still exists [16]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Financial Market Fluctuations - **Stock Index Futures**: The CSI 300 futures, SSE 50 futures, CSI 500 futures, and CSI 1000 futures all showed varying degrees of increase on February 25, 2026, with the CSI 500 futures having a relatively large daily increase of 1.61% [2]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures mostly declined on February 25, 2026, with the 30 - year treasury bond futures having a relatively large daily decline of 0.48% [2]. - **Foreign Exchange**: The US dollar index increased by 0.15% on February 25, 2026, and the US dollar mid - price decreased by 225 pips [2]. - **Interest Rates**: The 7 - day inter - bank pledged repo rate increased by 23.34 bp on February 25, 2026, and the 10 - year Chinese government bond yield increased by 1.24 bp [2]. Popular Industry Fluctuations - On February 25, 2026, most industries showed an upward trend, with non - ferrous metals, steel, and basic chemicals having relatively large daily increases of 3.53%, 4.26%, and 2.37% respectively. The consumer services and media industries declined, with decreases of 0.52% and 0.92% respectively [5]. Overseas Commodity Fluctuations - **Energy**: On February 24, 2026, NYMEX WTI crude oil decreased by 0.35%, ICE Brent crude oil decreased by 0.14%, NYMEX natural gas decreased by 2.94%, and ICE UK natural gas decreased by 4.75% [8]. - **Precious Metals**: COMEX gold decreased by 1.25% on February 24, 2026, while CONEX silver increased by 0.57% [8]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: LME copper, LME aluminum, LME zinc, LME tin, etc. showed different trends on February 24, 2026. For example, LME copper increased by 2.54% [8]. - **Agricultural Products**: CBOT soybeans, CBOT soybean oil, and other agricultural products also had different price changes on February 24, 2026. For example, CBOT soybean oil increased by 1.05% [8]. Macro Summary - **Domestic Macro**: During the Spring Festival, travel and consumption were strong, with the cross - regional passenger flow in the first 20 days of the Spring Festival travel season reaching 5.08 billion person - times, a record high. However, real estate sales were at a seasonal low, and the social financing in January started steadily. Due to the Spring Festival misalignment, the social financing data needs to be observed in combination with January - February data [16]. - **Overseas Macro**: The US economy shows a pattern of overall slowdown in expansion and structural differentiation in multiple fields. The GDP growth rate slowed significantly in the fourth quarter, personal consumption was the main drag, and inflation stickiness still exists [16]. - **Large - scale Assets**: Geopolitical uncertainties and Trump's tariff policies may support the prices of gold and silver in the short term. The crude oil market is dominated by geopolitical uncertainties, and the A - share market is expected to continue a mild upward trend after the Spring Festival. The black metal and domestic bond markets may continue to fluctuate, and the RMB may continue to strengthen in the second quarter [16]. Viewpoint Highlights - **Financial**: Stock index futures are expected to be volatile and slightly stronger; stock index options are expected to be volatile; treasury bond futures are expected to be volatile [17]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver are expected to be volatile and slightly stronger [17]. - **Shipping**: The container shipping to Europe is expected to be volatile [17]. - **Black Building Materials**: Steel, iron ore, coke, etc. are all expected to be volatile [17]. - **Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials**: Many non - ferrous metals and new materials such as copper, aluminum, and nickel are expected to be volatile, with some showing a slightly stronger trend [17]. - **Energy Chemicals**: Crude oil, LPG, asphalt, etc. are expected to be volatile [19]. - **Agriculture**: Many agricultural products such as cotton, natural rubber, and soybean oil are expected to be volatile, with some showing a slightly stronger trend, while sugar is expected to be volatile and slightly weaker [19].

油 脂 基 差 ： 油脂油料早报 研究中心农产品团队 2026/02/26 隔 夜 市 场 信 息 ： 截至2月19日当周，美国大豆出口销售料净增40-110万吨 USDA报告公布之前，分析师预估显示，截至2月19日当周，美豆出口销售料净增40-110万吨，其中2025/26市场年度 料净增40-100万吨，2026/27市场年度料净增0-10万吨。 美国豆粕出口销售料净增25-50万吨，其中当前市场年度料净增25-50万吨，下一市场年度料净增0万吨。美国豆油 出口销售料净减1万吨至净增1.6万吨，其中当前市场年度料净减1万吨至净增1.6万吨，下一市场年度料净增0万吨。 美国环保署：美国生物燃料混合规定将于3月最终确定 美国环境保护署助理署长AaronSzabo周三表示，美国环境保护署将于周三向白宫提交新的生物燃料混合量授权提 案，该规则可能会在3月底前最终确定。 MPOA：马来西亚2月1-20日毛棕榈油产量环比下降12.29% MPOA公布的数据显示，马来西亚2月1-20日毛棕榈油产量较前一个月同期下降12.29%。其中，马来半岛产量下降 10.74%，沙巴产量减少15.23%，沙捞越产量减少11.2%，婆 ...

淀粉：临近春节，部分企业陆续停机检修，行业整体开机率小幅下滑。短期看，在下游节日备货预期和库存去化的背景下，支撑企业报价维持 偏强的态势。中长期需重点关注下游消费节奏变化，这将成为价格走势的关键支撑因素，季节性旺季过后，企业库存是否会持续去化将成为未 来淀粉定价的关键因素。 研究中心农产品团队 2026/02/26 | 玉米/淀粉 | | | | 玉米 | | | | | 淀粉 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日期 | 长春 | 锦州 | 潍坊 | 蛇口 | 基差 | 贸易利润 进口盈亏 | 黑龙江 | 潍坊 | 基差 | 加工利润 | | 2026/02/11 | 2180 | 2280 | 2292 | 2430 | -36 | 30 235 | 2750 | 2820 | 124 | -83 | | 2026/02/12 | 2180 | 2290 | 2292 | 2450 | -30 | 40 262 | 2750 | 2820 | 123 | -83 | | 2026/02/13 | ...

农产品早报 2026-02-26 五矿期货农产品早报 五矿期货农产品团队 从业资格号：F0273729 交易咨询号：Z0002942 邮箱：wangja@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F03116327 交易咨询号：Z0019233 邮箱:yangzeyuan@wkqh.cn 王俊 组长、生鲜品研究员 杨泽元 软商品、油脂油料研究员 （1）分析机构（Hedgepoint Global Markets）预估巴西中南部地区 2026/27 榨季的糖产量为 4050 万吨， 较前一年度持平。其中预估甘蔗产量为 6.3 亿吨，同比增加 0.2 亿吨；甘蔗制糖比为 48.6%，同比减少 2 个百分点。（2）巴西航运机构 Williams 发布的数据显示，截至 2 月 18 日当周，巴西港口等待装运食糖 的船只数量为 43 艘，此前一周为 53 艘。港口等待装运的食糖数量为 157.7 万吨，此前一周为 183 万吨。 （3）据印度糖业协会（ISMA）发布数据显示，2025/26 榨季截至 2026 年 2 月 15 日，印度食糖产量已达 2251 万吨，同比增加 274 万吨，其中 2 月上半月产糖 300 万吨，同比减 ...

此前中美关系因美国滥施关税遇冷，中方一度暂停采购美国大豆。随着中美贸易关系缓和，双方在吉隆 坡经贸磋商后就扩大农产品贸易等问题达成共识。彭博社和路透社1月下旬引述知情交易商的消息报道 称，中国在过去3个月内已兑现美国大豆的采购承诺。在苏健看来，对美国大豆产业而言，中国市场不 仅是最大出口目的地，更是在多个方面最不可替代的客户。 【环球时报报道 记者 尹野平 丁雅栀】近年来，中美经贸关系发展始终牵动着美国豆农的心。美国大豆 出口协会首席执行官苏健日前接受《环球时报》记者独家专访，就美国对华大豆出口现状、中国市场的 重要性及中美经贸关系对产业的影响等问题作出回应。他表示，中国仍是美国大豆最重要的出口需求市 场，美国农户热切希望继续供货，维护与中国采购商的长期合作关系。 在回顾2025年美国对华大豆出口表现，并展望2026年发展前景时，苏健对《环球时报》记者表示，在 2024/25市场年度，美国对华大豆出口总量达到2260万吨。对于2026年的出口形势，苏健持谨慎乐观态 度，预计美国对华大豆出口将稳定保持在每年2500万吨上下。 "我们进入中国市场超过40年，过去几十年里，中国始终是美国大豆第一大出口市场，通常每年 ...