Group 1: Report Core Views - Although the geopolitical premium has dissipated and OPEC's production increase is minimal with supply not surging, oil prices are not easy to be overly bearish in the short - term. A range strategy of buying low and selling high is maintained, but it is recommended to wait and see for now [2] - For methanol, the import unloading is delayed, leading to a short - term decline in arrivals and a reduction in port inventory. Domestic supply drops slightly, coal prices rebound, and demand remains weak. The pattern of high inventory and weak reality persists, and it is advisable to wait and see, with potential upward drivers from winter gas restrictions [4] - Regarding urea, short - term malfunctioning devices increase, production declines, and demand is weak. The price is at a low level with low valuation, and it is expected to fluctuate within a narrow range. It is recommended to wait and see or consider long - position opportunities on dips [7] - Rubber prices are rising due to typhoons and stock market bullishness. Bulls and bears have different views. It is recommended to set stop - losses for short - term long positions and partially build positions for the RU2601 - RU2609 spread [12][14] - For PVC, the enterprise's comprehensive profit is at a low level, supply is high, demand is weak, and export expectations are poor. It is recommended to consider short - position opportunities on rallies [15] - In the case of pure benzene and styrene, the cost side shows a potential supply surplus. The BZN spread has room for upward repair, and styrene prices may stop falling stage - by - stage [19] - For polyethylene, the cost side supports the price, but high - level warehouse receipts suppress the market. It is expected to maintain a low - level oscillation [22] - For polypropylene, the cost side may face an expanding supply surplus, supply pressure is high, and it is in a situation of weak supply and demand with high inventory [25] - For PX, the load is high, downstream PTA has many short - term overhauls, and it is recommended to wait and see for now [28] - For PTA, the supply side may accumulate inventory slightly, demand is showing signs of weakness, and it is recommended to wait and see [29] - For ethylene glycol, the supply is high, imports are increasing, and ports are accumulating inventory. It is recommended to consider short - position opportunities on rallies [31] Group 2: Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report Group 3: Market Information Summaries Crude Oil - INE's main crude oil futures rose 11.00 yuan/barrel, a 2.52% increase, to 447.20 yuan/barrel. Related refined oil futures also had price increases [9] Methanol - The price in Taicang decreased by 20 yuan, in Inner Mongolia increased by 10 yuan, and remained stable in southern Shandong. The 01 - contract of the futures market decreased by 7 yuan to 2261 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 19 [3] Urea - Spot prices in Shandong and Henan remained stable. The 01 - contract of the futures market increased by 12 yuan to 1621 yuan, with a basis of - 91 [6] Rubber - Rubber prices rose due to the influence of Typhoon Fengshen on major production areas. As of October 16, 2025, the operating load of all - steel tires in Shandong increased by 18.70 percentage points week - on - week, and that of semi - steel tires increased by 23.50 percentage points week - on - week [12] PVC - The 01 - contract of PVC rose 20 yuan to 4719 yuan. The overall operating rate was 76.7%, a 5.9% decrease from the previous period. Factory and social inventories decreased [14] Pure Benzene and Styrene - The spot price of pure benzene decreased by 118 yuan/ton, and the futures price also decreased. The spot price of styrene increased by 50 yuan/ton, and the futures price increased by 100 yuan/ton [18] Polyethylene - The main - contract closing price of polyethylene rose 53 yuan/ton to 6936 yuan/ton, and the spot price rose 25 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate decreased slightly, and inventories decreased [21] Polypropylene - The main - contract closing price of polypropylene rose 36 yuan/ton to 6619 yuan/ton, and the spot price remained unchanged. The upstream operating rate decreased, and inventories decreased [23] PX - The 01 - contract of PX rose 118 yuan to 6450 yuan. The Asian and Chinese operating loads decreased. Some domestic and overseas devices were under maintenance [27] PTA - The 01 - contract of PTA rose 68 yuan to 4482 yuan. The operating load increased by 1.6%, and downstream load decreased slightly. Social inventory increased [28] Ethylene Glycol - The 01 - contract of ethylene glycol rose 47 yuan to 4051 yuan. The supply - side operating load increased, downstream load decreased slightly, and port inventory increased [30]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - For crude oil, although the geopolitical premium has disappeared and OPEC's production increase is minimal with supply not yet surging, short - term oil prices are not easy to be overly bearish. A low - buying and high - selling range strategy is maintained, but it is recommended to wait and see for now to test OPEC's export price - support willingness [3]. - For methanol, the peak - season demand has fallen short, and the pattern of high domestic inventory and weak reality remains. Due to the delay in the unloading of imported goods, the port pressure has eased. Future upward price drivers may come from the expectation of winter gas restrictions. It is recommended to wait and see [5]. - For urea, the domestic market lacks effective positive factors, but the price is at a low level with low valuation. It is expected to fluctuate in a narrow range, and it is recommended to wait and see or consider long - position opportunities at low prices [8]. - For rubber, the rubber price has stabilized in the short term. It is recommended to set a stop - loss for short - term long positions and enter and exit quickly. Partial position - building is suggested for the hedging strategy of buying RU2601 and selling RU2609 [15]. - For PVC, the domestic supply is strong and demand is weak, with a poor export outlook. It is recommended to pay attention to short - selling opportunities in the medium term [18][20]. - For pure benzene and styrene, the styrene price may stop falling in stages as the port inventory is being reduced significantly during the seasonal peak season [23]. - For polyethylene, the price is expected to remain in low - level fluctuations as the long - term contradiction shifts to the South Korean ethylene clearance policy [26]. - For polypropylene, in the context of weak supply and demand and high inventory pressure, the cost - side oversupply pattern suppresses the market [29]. - For PX, there is currently a lack of driving factors, and PXN is difficult to expand actively. It is recommended to wait and see [30]. - For PTA, the supply is increasing slightly, and the demand shows signs of weakness. It is recommended to wait and see [31]. - For ethylene glycol, the industry is expected to continue to accumulate inventory in the fourth quarter, and it is recommended to short - sell on rallies [33]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Information**: The main INE crude oil futures closed down 3.80 yuan/barrel, a 0.86% decline, at 435.80 yuan/barrel. High - sulfur fuel oil futures rose 2.00 yuan/ton, a 0.08% increase, at 2646.00 yuan/ton, and low - sulfur fuel oil futures fell 17.00 yuan/ton, a 0.55% decline, at 3079.00 yuan/ton. China's weekly crude oil data showed that the arrival inventory increased by 1.16 million barrels to 212.97 million barrels, a 0.55% increase; gasoline commercial inventory increased by 1.53 million barrels to 89.14 million barrels, a 1.75% increase; diesel commercial inventory decreased by 0.10 million barrels to 101.21 million barrels, a 0.10% decrease; total refined oil commercial inventory increased by 1.43 million barrels to 190.35 million barrels, a 0.76% increase [2]. - **Strategy View**: Maintain a low - buying and high - selling range strategy, but wait and see for now to test OPEC's export price - support willingness [3]. Methanol - **Market Information**: The price in Taicang increased by 3 yuan, while in Inner Mongolia it decreased by 27.5 yuan and in southern Shandong by 17.5 yuan. The 01 contract on the futures market decreased by 6 yuan, at 2266 yuan/ton, and the basis was +9. The 1 - 5 spread changed by - 8, at - 26 [4]. - **Strategy View**: Due to port fees, the unloading of imported goods has been delayed, leading to a short - term decline in arrivals and a reduction in port inventory. Domestic supply has decreased slightly, and coal prices have rebounded, reducing coal - to - methanol profits. Demand remains weak. It is recommended to wait and see [5]. Urea - **Market Information**: Spot prices in Shandong and Henan remained stable. The 01 contract on the futures market decreased by 2 yuan, at 1600 yuan, and the basis was - 70. The 1 - 5 spread changed by - 5, at - 75 [7]. - **Strategy View**: The number of short - term faulty devices has increased, and the operating rate has decreased significantly. The cost support is expected to gradually strengthen. Demand is weak. The price is expected to fluctuate in a narrow range, and it is recommended to wait and see or consider long - position opportunities at low prices [8]. Rubber - **Market Information**: The rubber price has been oscillating and recovering. Typhoon Fengshen is approaching, which will affect rubber - producing areas in Hainan, Yunnan, Vietnam, and Thailand. The long - side believes in factors such as limited rubber production increase and seasonal price increases, while the short - side is concerned about uncertain macro - expectations and weak demand [11][12]. - **Strategy View**: The rubber price has stabilized in the short term. It is recommended to set a stop - loss for short - term long positions and enter and exit quickly. Partial position - building is suggested for the hedging strategy of buying RU2601 and selling RU2609 [15]. PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC01 contract increased by 14 yuan, at 4702 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4600 yuan/ton, and the basis was - 102 yuan/ton. The 1 - 5 spread was - 305 yuan/ton. The overall operating rate of PVC decreased by 5.9% to 76.7%. The downstream operating rate decreased by 8.6% to 39.2%. Factory and social inventories decreased [17]. - **Strategy View**: The domestic supply is strong and demand is weak, with a poor export outlook. It is recommended to pay attention to short - selling opportunities in the medium term [18][20]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The cost - side price of East China pure benzene increased by 124 yuan/ton to 5585 yuan/ton. The spot price of styrene decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 6450 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate decreased by 1.73% to 71.88%, and the Jiangsu port inventory decreased by 0.54 million tons to 19.65 million tons. The demand - side three - S weighted operating rate increased by 0.27% to 38.81% [22]. - **Strategy View**: The styrene price may stop falling in stages as the port inventory is being reduced significantly during the seasonal peak season [23]. Polyethylene - **Market Information**: The main contract's closing price increased by 5 yuan/ton to 6879 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate decreased by 0.11% to 82.45%. The production enterprise inventory increased by 4.09 million tons to 52.95 million tons, and the trader inventory decreased by 0.37 million tons to 5.03 million tons. The downstream average operating rate increased by 0.64% to 45% [25]. - **Strategy View**: The price is expected to remain in low - level fluctuations as the long - term contradiction shifts to the South Korean ethylene clearance policy [26]. Polypropylene - **Market Information**: The main contract's closing price increased by 14 yuan/ton to 6565 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate decreased by 0.76% to 77.27%. The production enterprise, trader, and port inventories all decreased. The downstream average operating rate increased by 0.04% to 51.8% [27][28]. - **Strategy View**: In the context of weak supply and demand and high inventory pressure, the cost - side oversupply pattern suppresses the market [29]. PX - **Market Information**: The PX01 contract decreased by 24 yuan, at 6268 yuan. The PX CFR decreased by 3 dollars, at 783 dollars. The PX load in China decreased by 2.5% to 84.9%, and the Asian load decreased by 1.9% to 78%. Some domestic and overseas devices are under maintenance. The PTA load increased by 1.6% to 76%. The inventory at the end of August increased by 1.9 million tons to 391.8 million tons [29]. - **Strategy View**: There is currently a lack of driving factors, and PXN is difficult to expand actively. It is recommended to wait and see [30]. PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA01 contract decreased by 18 yuan, at 4384 yuan. The East China spot price decreased by 25 yuan, at 4315 yuan. The PTA load increased by 1.6% to 76%. The downstream load decreased by 0.1% to 91.4%. The terminal load decreased. The social inventory in early October increased by 5.3 million tons to 216 million tons [30]. - **Strategy View**: The supply is increasing slightly, and the demand shows signs of weakness. It is recommended to wait and see [31]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The EG01 contract remained unchanged, at 4003 yuan. The East China spot price decreased by 15 yuan, at 4100 yuan. The supply - side load increased by 2.5% to 77.2%. The downstream load decreased by 0.1% to 91.4%. The terminal load decreased. The port inventory increased by 3.8 million tons to 57.9 million tons [32]. - **Strategy View**: The industry is expected to continue to accumulate inventory in the fourth quarter, and it is recommended to short - sell on rallies [33].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macrofinance**: Index futures are expected to be bullish in the medium to long term, suggesting buying on dips; treasury bonds should be kept under observation [1][5]. - **Black Building Materials**: Coking coal and rebar are recommended for range - bound trading; glass is advised to be observed [1]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Copper is recommended to hold long positions cautiously on dips without chasing highs; aluminum is advised to lay out long positions on dips after pullbacks; nickel is suggested to be observed or shorted on highs; tin, gold, and silver are recommended for range - bound trading [1]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: PVC, caustic soda, styrene, rubber, urea, and methanol are expected to oscillate; polyolefins are expected to have wide - range oscillations; the 01 contract of soda ash should be traded with a short - selling mindset [1]. - **Cotton Textile Industry Chain**: Cotton and cotton yarn, and PTA are expected to oscillate; apples and jujubes are expected to be slightly bullish [1]. - **Agriculture and Animal Husbandry**: Live pigs and eggs are recommended to be shorted on highs; corn is expected to have wide - range oscillations; soybean meal is expected to have range - bound oscillations; oils are expected to be slightly bullish [1]. Core Views The report provides investment strategies and market analyses for various futures products. It takes into account factors such as macroeconomic data, industry events, supply - demand relationships, and international policies. For example, in the macro - financial sector, important meetings and potential Fed rate cuts support the stock market, while in the bond market, the outcome of Sino - US negotiations is crucial. In the black building materials sector, supply and demand factors affect the prices of coking coal, rebar, etc. Each sector's analysis is based on a combination of multiple factors to guide investment decisions [5][7][8]. Summaries by Categories Macrofinance - **Index Futures**: Last week, A - share broad - based indices all had negative weekly returns, with the ChiNext and STAR Market indices having the largest declines. This week, the release of macro - economic data and important events will affect the market. With the approaching of important meetings and the potential Fed rate cuts, the market is expected to be supported. It is recommended to buy on dips in the medium to long term [5]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Interest - rate bond yields declined across all tenors and varieties, and credit - bond yields also decreased. Overseas credit risks led to a decline in risk appetite, but the compound negative factors in the bond market have not been fundamentally resolved. It is advisable to take partial profits during risk - event shocks. The Sino - US negotiations at the end of the month will be the key to determining market risk appetite [5]. Black Building Materials - **Coking Coal and Coke**: During the National Day, supply was temporarily halted and is expected to gradually recover after the holiday. The supply recovery is relatively slow, and coking coal has long - position value. After the holiday, the first round of coke price increases started, supported by steel mills' demand [7][8]. - **Rebar**: Last Friday, rebar futures prices oscillated. The fundamental situation shows that the price is undervalued, and with the improvement of demand and the decline of production, the price is expected to oscillate at a low level. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity to go long around 3000 for the RB2601 contract [8]. - **Glass**: After the National Day, environmental protection and macro - policy expectations cooled down, and the market returned to the fundamental logic. Supply is increasing, demand is weak, and the inventory is rising. It is recommended to observe and wait for a reversal to consider going long [9][10]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The copper price fluctuated greatly due to trade - related news. Although the price increase suppresses demand, the demand in the fourth quarter has room for improvement. The fundamentals are relatively stable, and it is recommended to hold long positions cautiously on dips without chasing highs [11]. - **Aluminum**: The price of bauxite in Guinea decreased, and the operating capacity of alumina and electrolytic aluminum changed. The demand in the peak season is weak, but the inventory of aluminum ingots is decreasing well. It is recommended to lay out long positions on dips [13]. - **Nickel**: The price of nickel ore is firm, but the supply may become looser. Refined nickel is in an oversupply situation, and the price of nickel iron has limited upside. It is recommended to observe or short on highs [18]. - **Tin**: The domestic refined tin production decreased in September, and the supply is expected to be more relaxed in the fourth quarter. The downstream consumption is weak, and it is recommended for range - bound trading [18]. - **Silver and Gold**: Due to the delay of the US PPI data and the risk of government shutdown, the safe - haven sentiment increased. With the expectation of rate cuts and concerns about the US economy, the prices of silver and gold are expected to be supported. It is recommended to trade cautiously and build positions after sufficient pullbacks [19][20]. Energy and Chemicals - **PVC**: The cost is at a low level, the supply is high, the domestic demand is weak, and the export sustainability is questionable. It is expected to oscillate, and the 01 contract is temporarily observed in the range of 4600 - 4800 [21][22]. - **Caustic Soda**: There are new maintenance plans in the short - term supply, and the demand is increasing. It is expected to oscillate weakly, and the 01 contract is temporarily observed for the pressure at 2450 [23][24]. - **Styrene**: The cost is under pressure, the inventory is high, and the demand is limited. It is expected to oscillate, and the range of 6400 - 6700 is to be observed [24][25]. - **Rubber**: Overseas weather improvement pressures the raw material price, but the reduction of rubber arrivals supports the price. It is expected to oscillate in the short term, and the support at 14500 is to be observed [26][27]. - **Urea**: The supply is increasing, the agricultural demand is scattered, and the inventory is accumulating. It is expected to oscillate, and factors such as compound fertilizer production and export policies should be focused on [28]. - **Methanol**: The supply is recovering, the demand from the methanol - to - olefins industry is increasing, and the inventory is at a high level. It is expected to oscillate [30]. - **Polyolefins**: The cost is affected by macro factors, the supply has an increasing expectation, and the demand is limited. It is expected to oscillate weakly, and the L2601 contract should pay attention to the support at 6800, and the PP2601 contract should pay attention to the support at 6500 [30][31]. - **Soda Ash**: The spot trading is light, the downstream demand is weak, and the supply is in excess. The 01 contract should be traded with a short - selling mindset [33]. Cotton Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: The global cotton supply - demand situation has changed, and the recent increase in seed cotton prices has led to a situation of grabbing cotton. However, due to the uncertainty between China and the US, the outlook is bearish [35]. - **PTA**: The international oil price is affected by geopolitical factors, the PTA spot price is low, and the supply - demand situation leads to a slowdown in inventory accumulation. It is expected to oscillate weakly in the range of 4350 - 4600 [34][35]. - **Apples**: The price of late - maturing Fuji apples shows a polarization, and good - quality apples are in high demand. The expected output this year is stable, but the quality has declined, and the price is expected to be slightly bullish [36][37]. - **Jujubes**: The new - season jujubes in Xinjiang are about to be harvested, and the ordering progress in different regions varies. The market is in a state of waiting and seeing, and the price is expected to be slightly bullish [37]. Agriculture and Animal Husbandry - **Live Pigs**: The supply in October is increasing, the weight of pigs is relatively high, and the entry of secondary fattening has weakened recently. In the medium to long term, the supply will remain high before the first half of next year. It is recommended to adjust short positions according to different contracts [39][40][41]. - **Eggs**: The current egg price is supported by improved storage conditions and increased procurement, but the post - holiday demand is weak. In the medium to long term, the supply growth rate is slowing down, but the capacity clearance still takes time. It is recommended to take partial profits on short positions and wait for spot guidance [42][43][44]. - **Corn**: Currently, it is the transition period between old and new crops. The short - term supply is sufficient, and the price is under seasonal pressure. In the medium to long term, the cost has support, and the demand is moderately weak. The 11 - contract should be traded with a short - selling mindset, and attention should be paid to the 1 - 5 reverse spread [44][45]. - **Soybean Meal**: The US soybean is under pressure from harvest and slow exports, and the domestic soybean meal is affected by import expectations. It is expected to oscillate at a low level, and attention should be paid to the support at 2900 for the M2601 contract [45][46]. - **Oils**: In the short term, the callback of oils is limited. The 01 contracts of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil should pay attention to the support levels of 8150 - 8200, 9200 - 9300, and 9800 - 9900 respectively. It is recommended to go long after the callback [47][53].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For crude oil, although the geopolitical premium has dissipated and OPEC's production increase is minimal with supply not yet surging, short - term oil prices are not advisable to be overly bearish. A range - trading strategy of buying low and selling high is maintained, but it's recommended to wait and see for now to test OPEC's export price - support willingness [3]. - For methanol, the peak - season demand has disappointed, and the pattern of high domestic inventory and weak reality remains. However, the port pressure has eased due to the delay in unloading imported goods. Future upward price drivers may come from the expected improvement brought by winter gas restrictions. It's advisable to focus on supply - side disturbances and look for long 1 - short 5 spread opportunities at low prices [6]. - For urea, there is still a lack of effective positive factors in the domestic market, but the price is at a low level with low valuation. It's recommended to wait and see or look for long - position opportunities at low prices [9][11]. - For rubber, the rubber price has stabilized in the short term. It's recommended to set a stop - loss for short - term long positions and enter and exit quickly. Partial positions can be established for the strategy of buying RU2601 and selling RU2609 [14]. - For PVC, the domestic supply is strong while demand is weak, and the export expectation is weakening. It's recommended to look for short - position opportunities in the medium term [18]. - For pure benzene and styrene, the port inventory of styrene is decreasing significantly, and the price may stop falling temporarily [21]. - For polyethylene, the price may maintain a low - level oscillation in the long term [24]. - For polypropylene, under the background of weak supply and demand, the overall inventory pressure is high, and the cost - side supply surplus pattern suppresses the market [27]. - For PX, currently, there is a lack of driving factors, and it's recommended to wait and see [28]. - For PTA, the supply is increasing slightly, and the demand shows signs of weakness. It's recommended to wait and see [29]. - For ethylene glycol, the supply is high, and the port is starting to accumulate inventory. It's recommended to look for short - position opportunities [31]. Summary According to Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Information**: The main INE crude oil futures closed down 10.60 yuan/barrel, a 2.39% decline, at 432.60 yuan/barrel. Related refined oil futures also declined. The U.S. EIA weekly data showed changes in various oil inventories, such as a 3.52 - million - barrel increase in commercial crude oil inventory [2]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Despite the disappearance of geopolitical premiums and minimal OPEC production increase, short - term oil prices are not advisable to be overly bearish. A range - trading strategy of buying low and selling high is maintained, but short - term waiting and seeing is recommended [3]. Methanol - **Market Information**: The price in Taicang decreased by 25 yuan, in Inner Mongolia by 12.5 yuan, and in southern Shandong by 2.5 yuan. The 01 - contract on the futures market decreased by 47 yuan to 2272 yuan/ton, with the basis at par [5]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Import unloading is delayed, leading to a short - term decline in arrivals and a reduction in port inventory. Domestic supply has slightly decreased, and coal prices are rising, reducing coal - to - methanol profits. Demand remains weak. The peak - season demand has disappointed, but the port pressure has eased. Future upward drivers may come from winter gas restrictions. Focus on supply - side disturbances and long 1 - short 5 spread opportunities at low prices [6]. Urea - **Market Information**: Spot prices in Shandong and Henan remained stable. The 01 - contract on the futures market decreased by 2 yuan to 1602 yuan, with a basis of - 72 [8]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Short - term malfunctioning devices have increased, and the operating rate has significantly declined. The demand is weak, but the price is at a low level. It's recommended to wait and see or look for long - position opportunities at low prices [9]. Rubber - **Market Information**: The rubber price is oscillating and recovering, with RU stabilizing and NR being relatively strong. Typhoon Fengshen may affect rubber - producing areas. There are different views among bulls and bears. As of October 16, 2025, the operating rates of all - steel and semi - steel tires in domestic enterprises have changed, and some all - steel tire enterprises have issued price - increase notices [10][11]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The rubber price has stabilized in the short term. It's recommended to set a stop - loss for short - term long positions and enter and exit quickly. Partial positions can be established for the strategy of buying RU2601 and selling RU2609 [14]. PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC01 contract decreased by 6 yuan to 4688 yuan. The spot price in Changzhou increased by 20 yuan/ton. The overall operating rate decreased, and both factory and social inventories decreased [16]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The comprehensive profit of enterprises has continued to decline, and the supply is strong while demand is weak. The export expectation is weakening. It's recommended to look for short - position opportunities in the medium term [18]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The cost of pure benzene in East China remained unchanged, while the styrene spot price increased and the futures price decreased. The basis strengthened. Supply - side operating rates decreased, and port inventory decreased. Demand - side operating rates increased [20]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The port inventory of styrene is decreasing significantly, and the price may stop falling temporarily [21]. Polyethylene - **Market Information**: The futures price decreased, and the spot price also decreased. The upstream operating rate decreased slightly, and production enterprise inventory increased while trader inventory decreased. The downstream operating rate increased slightly [23]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The cost - side support for crude oil has weakened. The PE valuation has limited downward space, but the high number of warehouse receipts suppresses the market. The overall inventory is decreasing from a high level, and demand is gradually picking up. The price may maintain a low - level oscillation in the long term [24]. Polypropylene - **Market Information**: The futures price decreased, and the spot price also decreased. The upstream operating rate decreased, and inventories at production enterprises, traders, and ports all decreased. The downstream operating rate increased slightly [26]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The cost - side supply surplus is expected to expand. The supply pressure is high, and demand is weak. The overall inventory pressure is high, and the cost - side situation suppresses the market [27]. PX, PTA, and Ethylene Glycol PX - **Market Information**: The PX01 contract decreased by 84 yuan. The load of PX decreased, and multiple devices were under maintenance. The load of PTA increased, and imports from South Korea to China increased in early October. Inventory increased in August [27]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Currently, the PX load remains high, and the downstream PTA has many short - term maintenance operations. There is a lack of driving factors, and it's recommended to wait and see [28]. PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA01 contract decreased by 54 yuan. The load of PTA increased, and some devices adjusted their loads. The downstream load decreased slightly, and inventory increased [28]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply is increasing slightly, and the demand shows signs of weakness. It's recommended to wait and see [29]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The EG01 contract decreased by 86 yuan. The supply - side load increased, and multiple devices had changes in operation. The downstream load decreased slightly, and port inventory increased [30]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply is high, and the port is starting to accumulate inventory. It's recommended to look for short - position opportunities [31].

Report Investment Rating - The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. However, specific ratings for some commodities are as follows: - Crude oil: Bearish [1] - Fuel oil: Bearish [1] Core Viewpoints - Short - term stock index is expected to fluctuate strongly, and attention should be paid to the possible meeting between Chinese and US leaders during the APEC meeting in South Korea at the end of this month. Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has recently reminded of interest - rate risks [1]. - Gold is supported to remain at a high level due to factors such as the US government shutdown, Sino - US trade uncertainty, and the Fed's expected rate cut in October, but short - term high - level volatility risks should be noted. Silver price has risen and then fallen again, with increased short - term high - level volatility risks [1]. - Although global trade frictions suppress copper prices, copper prices are expected to continue to run strongly due to ongoing disturbances in copper mine supply and improved domestic and foreign macro - liquidity [1]. - The fundamentals of electrolytic aluminum are mixed, and its price is expected to fluctuate. Alumina production and inventory are increasing, and its fundamentals are weak, pressuring the spot price [1]. - The non - ferrous sector faces correction risks due to Sino - US trade frictions. Zinc prices are under short - term pressure, nickel prices are affected by macro factors in the short term, and stainless steel futures are expected to fluctuate in the short term [1]. - Agricultural product prices are affected by various factors such as trade frictions, policies, and supply - demand relationships, showing different trends of fluctuation [1]. - Energy and chemical product prices are also affected by multiple factors including production, trade policies, and market demand, with different price trends [1]. Summary by Commodity Categories Macro - finance - Stock index: Short - term strong - side fluctuation, beware of tariff policy changes, focus on the possible Sino - US leaders' meeting at the end of the month [1] - Bond futures: Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial, but the central bank reminds of interest - rate risks [1] - Gold: Supported at a high level, short - term high - level volatility risks [1] - Silver: Short - term high - level volatility risks increased, expected to fluctuate [1] Non - ferrous metals - Copper: Expected to run strongly due to supply disturbances and improved liquidity [1] - Electrolytic aluminum: Mixed fundamentals, price to fluctuate [1] - Alumina: Weak fundamentals, price under pressure, focus on cost support [1] - Zinc: Short - term pressure, support if export window opens [1] - Nickel: Short - term macro - driven fluctuation, high - inventory suppression exists [1] - Stainless steel: Short - term fluctuation, pay attention to supply and macro changes [1] - Tin: Long - term low - buying opportunities, short - term facing callback risks [1] - Industrial silicon: Southwest in the wet season, northwest resuming production [1] - Polysilicon: Production increase in October, supply - demand imbalance [1] - Lithium carbonate: High demand in new energy fields [1] Black metals - Rebar: Lack of clear industrial drivers, low valuation, not recommended for directional trading [1] - Iron ore: Near - month contracts restricted by production cuts, far - month contracts have upward potential [1] - Glass: Supply surplus, price under pressure [1] - Soda ash: Follow glass, price under pressure [1] - Coking coal: Price bottom - finding not over, temporarily wait and see [1] - Coke: Similar logic to coking coal [1] Agricultural products - Palm oil: Near - month contracts lack new drivers, wait for production - reduction and inventory - clearance cycle [1] - Soybean oil: Cost pressure and de - inventory expectation coexist, wait and see [1] - Rapeseed oil: Possible negative speculation, unilateral wait - and - see, inter - month positive spread expected to rise [1] - Cotton: Short - term wide - range fluctuation, long - term pressure with new cotton listing [1] - Sugar: High sugar - making ratio may be adjusted, limited upside space [1] - Corn: Short - term limited rebound, pay attention to grain sales [1] - Ethanol: Tax - included ethanol close to raw sugar price, sugar - making advantage weakened [1] - Logs: Fundamentals declined, wait and see [1] - Live pigs: Supply increase, price outlook weak [1] Energy and chemicals - Crude oil: Bearish due to factors such as OPEC+ production increase and demand decline [1] - Fuel oil: Bearish, follow crude oil in the short term [1] - Asphalt: Supply is sufficient, demand may be over - estimated [1] - Natural rubber: Affected by trade policies and supply increase [1] - BR rubber: Supply is loose, downstream demand is weak [1] - PTA: Production decline due to plant maintenance [1] - Ethylene glycol: Low port inventory, but price under pressure [1] - Short - fiber: Factory devices returning, price - related changes in delivery willingness [1] - Urea: Limited upside space, cost - end support [1] - PVC: Supply pressure, price to fluctuate weakly [1] - Alumina: Short - term price bearish, medium - term bullish [1] - LPG: Suppressed by supply and demand factors [1] - Container shipping: Possible low - level rebound [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - For crude oil, although the geopolitical premium has dissipated and OPEC's production increase is minimal with supply not yet surging, oil prices are not easy to be overly bearish in the short - term. A range strategy of buying low and selling high is maintained, but it's advisable to wait and see for now to verify OPEC's export price - support intention [3]. - For methanol, the weak - reality pattern of high domestic inventory and unmet peak - season demand remains. The short - term port pressure eases due to delayed import unloading. Future upward price drivers may come from winter gas restrictions. It's recommended to focus on supply - side disturbances and wait and see [4][6]. - For urea, there is a lack of effective positive factors in the domestic market, but the price is at a low level with low valuation. It's expected to fluctuate in a narrow range, and it's advisable to wait and see [8]. - For rubber, the price is short - term stable. It's recommended to set a stop - loss, buy on dips with a short - term approach, and partially build a hedging position by buying RU2601 and selling RU2609 [12]. - For PVC, the domestic supply is strong while demand is weak, and the export outlook is poor. The fundamental situation is bad. It's advisable to pay attention to short - selling opportunities in the medium - term [14]. - For pure benzene and styrene, the port inventory of styrene is decreasing significantly, and the price may stop falling temporarily during the seasonal peak season [17]. - For polyethylene, the price is expected to oscillate at a low level. The long - term contradiction has shifted from cost - driven decline to South Korea's ethylene clearance policy [21]. - For polypropylene, under the background of weak supply and demand with high inventory pressure, the cost - side supply surplus pattern suppresses the market. It's advisable to wait and see [23]. - For PX, the current load is high, and the expected inventory accumulation period continues. The valuation is neutral to low, and it's recommended to wait and see [24]. - For PTA, the supply - side maintenance volume is still high, and the de - stocking pattern continues. The demand - side load is expected to remain high, but the terminal shows signs of weakness. It's recommended to wait and see [27]. - For ethylene glycol, the domestic supply is high, and the port inventory is increasing. It's expected to continue to accumulate inventory in the fourth quarter. It's recommended to short - sell on rallies [28]. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Information**: INE's main crude oil futures rose 0.60 yuan/barrel, or 0.14%, to 443.80 yuan/barrel. High - sulfur fuel oil futures rose 25.00 yuan/ton, or 0.94%, to 2694.00 yuan/ton, and low - sulfur fuel oil futures rose 1.00 yuan/ton, or 0.03%, to 3159.00 yuan/ton. In the Fujaiera port, gasoline inventory decreased by 0.01 million barrels to 7.48 million barrels, diesel inventory increased by 0.56 million barrels to 3.01 million barrels, fuel oil inventory increased by 0.78 million barrels to 7.03 million barrels, and total refined oil inventory increased by 1.33 million barrels to 17.52 million barrels [2]. - **Strategy**: Maintain a range strategy of buying low and selling high, and wait and see for now to verify OPEC's export price - support intention [3]. Methanol - **Market Information**: The price in Taicang decreased by 20 yuan, in Inner Mongolia by 12.5 yuan, and remained stable in southern Shandong. The 01 - contract on the futures market rose 21 yuan to 2319 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 22 yuan. The 1 - 5 spread increased by 7 to - 6 [3][6]. - **Strategy**: The short - term port pressure eases due to delayed import unloading. The overall supply is slightly decreasing, and the demand is still weak. Focus on supply - side disturbances and wait and see [4][6]. Urea - **Market Information**: The spot price in Shandong remained stable, and in Henan it increased by 10 yuan. The 01 - contract on the futures market rose 4 yuan to 1604 yuan, with a basis of - 74 yuan. The 1 - 5 spread decreased by 2 to - 71 [8]. - **Strategy**: The number of short - term faulty devices increased, and the operating rate decreased significantly. The demand is weak, and the price is at a low level. It's expected to fluctuate in a narrow range, and it's advisable to wait and see [8]. Rubber - **Market Information**: The bulls believe in factors such as limited rubber production in Southeast Asia, seasonal price increase, and improved demand in China. The bears are concerned about uncertain macro - expectations, seasonal low demand, and possible under - performance of supply benefits [8][9]. - **Strategy**: The price is short - term stable. Set a stop - loss, buy on dips with a short - term approach, and partially build a hedging position by buying RU2601 and selling RU2609 [12]. PVC - **Market Information**: The 01 - contract on the futures market rose 17 yuan to 4694 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4580 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 114 yuan. The 1 - 5 spread was - 312 yuan. The overall operating rate was 82.6%, with the calcium - carbide method at 82.9% and the ethylene method at 81.9%. The downstream operating rate was 47.8%. Factory inventory was 38.4 million tons, and social inventory was 103.6 million tons [13]. - **Strategy**: The domestic supply is strong while demand is weak, and the export outlook is poor. The fundamental situation is bad. Pay attention to short - selling opportunities in the medium - term [14]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The cost of pure benzene in East China was 5590 yuan/ton. The spot price of styrene was 6600 yuan/ton, and the closing price of the active contract was 6600 yuan/ton. The basis was 0 yuan/ton. The BZN spread was 139 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 73.61%, and the inventory in Jiangsu ports decreased by 0.54 million tons to 19.65 million tons. The weighted operating rate of the three S products was 38.81% [16]. - **Strategy**: The port inventory of styrene is decreasing significantly, and the price may stop falling temporarily during the seasonal peak season [17]. Polyethylene - **Market Information**: The closing price of the main contract was 6929 yuan/ton, and the spot price was 6990 yuan/ton. The basis was 61 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 82.45%. The production enterprise inventory increased by 4.09 million tons to 52.95 million tons, and the trader inventory decreased by 0.37 million tons to 5.03 million tons. The downstream average operating rate was 45% [19]. - **Strategy**: The price is expected to oscillate at a low level. The long - term contradiction has shifted from cost - driven decline to South Korea's ethylene clearance policy [21]. Polypropylene - **Market Information**: The closing price of the main contract was 6618 yuan/ton, and the spot price was 6625 yuan/ton. The basis was 7 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 77.27%. The production enterprise inventory decreased by 0.27 million tons to 67.87 million tons, the trader inventory decreased by 2.25 million tons to 23.86 million tons, and the port inventory decreased by 0.08 million tons to 6.79 million tons. The downstream average operating rate was 51.8% [22]. - **Strategy**: Under the background of weak supply and demand with high inventory pressure, the cost - side supply surplus pattern suppresses the market. It's advisable to wait and see [23]. PX - **Market Information**: The 01 - contract on the futures market rose 64 yuan to 6376 yuan. The PX CFR price decreased by 1 US dollar to 786 US dollars. The basis was 53 yuan. The PX load in China was 87.4%, and in Asia was 79.9%. The PTA load was 76.7%. The inventory at the end of August was 391.8 million tons [23]. - **Strategy**: The current load is high, and the expected inventory accumulation period continues. The valuation is neutral to low, and it's recommended to wait and see [24]. PTA - **Market Information**: The 01 - contract on the futures market rose 34 yuan to 4456 yuan. The East China spot price rose 30 yuan to 4355 yuan. The basis was - 85 yuan. The PTA load was 76.7%, and the downstream load was 91.4%. The terminal draw - texturing load decreased to 80%, and the loom load decreased to 68%. The social inventory on October 10 was 216 million tons [24][26]. - **Strategy**: The supply - side maintenance volume is still high, and the de - stocking pattern continues. The demand - side load is expected to remain high, but the terminal shows signs of weakness. It's recommended to wait and see [27]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The 01 - contract on the futures market rose 32 yuan to 4089 yuan. The East China spot price rose 6 yuan to 4120 yuan. The basis was 68 yuan. The ethylene glycol load was 77.2%, with the syngas - based method at 81.9% and the ethylene - based method at 74.5%. The port inventory increased by 3.4 million tons to 54.1 million tons [27]. - **Strategy**: The domestic supply is high, and the port inventory is increasing. It's expected to continue to accumulate inventory in the fourth quarter. It's recommended to short - sell on rallies [28].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - Overseas, the weakness of regional banks and the remarks of multiple Fed officials have led to a decline in the US dollar index and US bond yields, and an increase in risk aversion. Domestically, economic growth has accelerated, and multiple industry stabilization and growth plans have been introduced, increasing policy support and boosting domestic risk appetite. The short - term macro - upward drive has strengthened, and attention should be paid to the progress of Sino - US trade negotiations and the implementation of domestic incremental policies. In terms of assets, the stock index is short - term oscillating strongly, and short - term cautious long positions are recommended; treasury bonds are short - term oscillating, and cautious waiting is recommended; among commodity sectors, black is short - term oscillating, and short - term cautious waiting is recommended; non - ferrous metals are short - term adjusted, and short - term cautious long positions are recommended; energy and chemicals are short - term oscillating, and cautious waiting is recommended; precious metals are short - term strongly oscillating at high levels, and cautious long positions are recommended [3]. Summary by Directory Macro Finance - **Macro**: Overseas, the weakness of regional banks and Fed officials' remarks have led to a decline in the US dollar index and US bond yields, and an increase in risk aversion. Domestically, economic growth has accelerated, and policies have increased support, boosting risk appetite. The short - term macro - upward drive has strengthened, and attention should be paid to Sino - US trade negotiations and domestic incremental policies. For assets, the stock index is short - term oscillating strongly, treasury bonds are short - term oscillating, black is short - term oscillating, non - ferrous metals are short - term adjusted, energy and chemicals are short - term oscillating, and precious metals are short - term strongly oscillating at high levels [3]. - **Stock Index**: Driven by sectors such as coal, banking, insurance, and port shipping, the domestic stock market rose slightly. With the acceleration of domestic economic growth and the increase in policy support, risk appetite has increased. Short - term cautious long positions are recommended [4]. - **Precious Metals**: The precious metals market continued to rise. With the increase in risk aversion and the expectation of Fed rate cuts, spot gold reached a record high. Short - term, precious metals are strongly running, and the medium - and long - term upward pattern remains unchanged. Short - term, long positions can be held or reduced on rallies; medium - and long - term, buy on dips [4]. Black Metals - **Steel**: The domestic steel spot market was weak on Thursday, but the futures price rebounded slightly. Market expectations have improved due to the approaching Fourth Plenary Session and expectations for the APEC meeting. The real demand has improved marginally, and steel supply may decline stage - by - stage. The steel market is expected to oscillate in a range in the short term [6]. - **Iron Ore**: On Thursday, the spot price of iron ore rebounded slightly, while the futures price declined. Iron production is still high, and steel mills' restocking has ended. With the narrowing of profits, the willingness to cut production may increase. The global iron ore shipment volume has decreased, and the port inventory has increased. A bearish view is recommended for iron ore prices [8]. - **Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron**: On Thursday, the spot prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese were flat, and the futures prices rebounded from the bottom. The demand for ferroalloys has decreased due to the decline in steel production. The supply of silicon manganese has decreased, and the Lanzhou charcoal market is stable. The futures prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese are expected to continue to oscillate in a range [9]. - **Glass**: On Thursday, the glass futures contract oscillated weakly in a range. Supply has increased marginally, and there is an expectation of anti - involution, forming a bottom support. Demand has improved marginally during the traditional peak season but is currently slowing down. It is expected to run weakly in a short - term range [10]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Energy - **Copper**: From January to September, Kazakhstan's refined copper production increased by 1.2% year - on - year. Copper social inventory is at a relatively high level. The global copper mine output growth rate is expected to be high in 2026. The US economy has uncertainties, which are potential risk points. In the short - and medium - term, domestic electrolytic copper production is high, demand is facing a test, and de - stocking is less than expected [11]. - **Aluminum**: On Thursday, aluminum prices were strong. Aluminum social inventory decreased significantly, and aluminum rod inventory decreased slightly. The smelting profit is high, supply is rigid, imports are high, and demand is weakening marginally. It is expected to oscillate in a range in the short term [12]. - **Tin**: The supply of tin ore is tightening globally. The demand has improved slightly but remains weak. The price is expected to oscillate at a high level, with support from low smelting start - up and peak - season expectations, but the upside is limited by high - price consumption suppression and macro risks [13]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Trump's statement about meeting with Putin and the upcoming high - level Sino - US and Russia - US talks have raised expectations of increased Russian oil supply. Western sanctions and Sino - US trade tensions have also affected demand. Crude oil prices are expected to decline [14]. - **Asphalt**: As crude oil prices test support, the probability of asphalt breaking through support has increased. Demand is nearing the end, inventory pressure is increasing, and it is difficult for asphalt to have a strong upward drive [14][15]. - **Carbonate Lithium**: On Thursday, the carbonate lithium futures contract rose. With the approach of the contract change - over, the short - term trend is oscillating strongly [14]. - **Industrial Silicon**: On Thursday, the industrial silicon futures contract rose slightly. Production has reached a new high, and the 2511 contract faces the pressure of warehouse receipt digestion. It is expected to oscillate in a range [14]. - **Polysilicon**: On Thursday, the polysilicon futures contract rose. With the approach of the contract change - over, the short - term trend is oscillating strongly due to rumors of storage and capacity regulation [14]. - **PX**: PX is weakly oscillating. Although it gets some demand support from PTA's high - start, it is likely to continue to oscillate weakly following the polyester sector [15]. - **PTA**: After the decline of crude oil prices, polyester is in a low - level oscillation. Downstream demand is weak, supply is high, and inventory is increasing. PTA prices will continue to run weakly [15]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The sentiment of ethylene glycol is weak. Port inventory is rising, demand is weakening, and supply is increasing. It is expected to continue to be in an oversupply situation in late October [16]. - **PP**: The PP market shows a pattern of both supply and demand increasing. New capacity and restarted devices bring supply pressure, and the price is expected to be weak [18]. - **LLDPE**: The supply of LLDPE is increasing, demand recovery is slow, and the price is expected to continue to oscillate weakly [19]. - **Urea**: The urea market is rising slightly. It is currently in a situation of strong supply and weak demand. The short - term price is under pressure, and its future trend depends on the implementation of export policies [19]. Agricultural Products - **US Soybeans**: Overnight, the CBOT November soybean contract rose. Strong domestic demand offset trade concerns, and the September soybean crushing volume reached a record high [20]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: The trading volume of soybean meal increased, and the start - up rate returned to normal. However, the oil mill inventory is under pressure, and the fourth - quarter soybean supply may be loose. Without guidance from US soybeans, it may oscillate at a low level. Attention should be paid to Sino - Canadian trade dynamics for rapeseed meal [20]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Oil**: With the visit of the Canadian foreign minister, the short - term risk of rapeseed oil has decreased. Soybean oil prices may be relatively weak due to inventory pressure [21]. - **Palm Oil**: Southeast Asian palm oil has entered the production - reduction cycle. In October, Malaysian palm oil production increased, suppressing prices, but exports also increased, providing some support [21]. - **Pigs**: The supply of pigs has increased, leading to a continuous decline in pig prices to a record low. Although there are signs of second - fattening, the quantity is small. With the decrease in temperature and the recovery of consumption, pig prices may stabilize [21][22].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core View of the Report - Next week, there is a risk of increased volatility in global major asset classes. Investors are advised to maintain a strategic allocation to precious metals such as gold and be relatively cautious about risk assets like equities, waiting and seeing. In the medium - term of the fourth quarter, the basic allocation view of equities > commodities > bonds is still held, and attention can be paid to potential buying opportunities for equity assets after the turmoil subsides [6] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Performance Summary - **Financial Market**: In the stock index futures, technology events catalyze the active growth style; the market turnover of index options slightly declines; the bond market of treasury bond futures remains weak. For example, the current price of CSI 300 futures is 4,590 with a daily increase of 0.30%, and the 2 - year treasury bond futures price is 102.362 with a daily decrease of 0.02% [2][7] - **Commodity Market**: Precious metals like COMEX gold and silver have significant increases, with COMEX gold rising 1.57% daily and COMEX silver rising 4.69% daily. In the energy sector, NYMEX WTI crude oil and ICE Brent oil have daily increases of 0.27% and 0.31% respectively, but have declined this year. In the agricultural products sector, CBOT soybeans and other varieties show different trends [2] - **Shipping Market**: The freight rate of container shipping to Europe is under pressure, with a monthly decline of 3.37% [3] Macro - situation Analysis - **Overseas Macro**: Next week, attention should be paid to new tariff threats from Trump and the marginal changes in the US government shutdown. There is a risk of conflict escalation before the APEC meeting at the end of October. If the US government shutdown exceeds 30 days, it will increase the recession risk [6] - **Domestic Macro**: China will gradually enter the period of focusing on the "15th Five - Year Plan" and tracking incremental policies. The progress and effectiveness of a batch of incremental policies such as 500 billion new policy - based financial instruments are worthy of follow - up [6] Asset Views - **Short - term**: Maintain a strategic allocation to precious metals such as gold, and be cautious about risk assets like equities next week [6] - **Medium - term (Fourth Quarter)**: Hold the basic allocation view of equities > commodities > bonds, and pay attention to potential buying opportunities for equity assets after the turmoil [6] View Highlights - **Financial**: Stock index futures are expected to rise in shock, index options to fluctuate, and treasury bond futures to oscillate [7] - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver are expected to rise in shock [7] - **Shipping**: Container shipping to Europe is expected to fluctuate [7] - **Black Building Materials**: Most varieties such as steel, iron ore, coke, etc. are expected to oscillate [7] - **Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials**: Most non - ferrous metal varieties are expected to oscillate, and aluminum is expected to rise in shock [7] - **Energy and Chemicals**: Most varieties are expected to decline in shock, and some varieties such as asphalt and high - sulfur fuel oil are expected to oscillate [9] - **Agriculture**: Most varieties are expected to oscillate, and some varieties such as sugar and paper pulp are expected to decline in shock [9]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - For crude oil, although the geopolitical premium has disappeared and OPEC's production increase is minimal with supply not yet surging, short - term oil prices are not advisable to be overly bearish. A low - buy and high - sell range strategy is maintained, but it is recommended to wait and see for now, waiting for a decline in OPEC exports when oil prices fall for verification [3]. - For methanol, with reduced import disturbances, prices are expected to return to be priced by its own fundamentals. Supply is high due to increased domestic production and rising imports, while demand is weak. Although the current fundamental situation is weak, short - selling is not cost - effective, and it is recommended to wait and see [5]. - For urea, domestic supply has returned with increased production, and demand is weak in the off - season. It is in a state of low valuation and weak drive, and it is recommended to wait and see [7]. - For rubber, macro disturbances may temporarily decrease, and rubber prices have stabilized in the short term. It is recommended to set stop - losses, buy on dips for short - term trading, and partially build positions for the hedge of buying RU2601 and selling RU2609 [13]. - For PVC, the supply is strong while demand is weak, and export expectations are poor. Although the valuation has declined to a low level, it is still difficult to support the weak supply - demand situation, and it is recommended to short on rallies in the medium term [14]. - For pure benzene and styrene, the cost of pure benzene is high, and the supply of benzene styrene is increasing while demand is declining. Port inventories are being depleted, and benzene styrene prices may stop falling in the short term [18]. - For polyethylene, the cost support has weakened, and although the valuation decline space is limited, high - level warehouse receipts suppress the market. It is expected to maintain a low - level oscillation [21]. - For polypropylene, the cost end is expected to have an oversupply situation, and there is high inventory pressure with weak supply and demand. It is recommended to wait and see [23]. - For PX, the load is high, and the downstream PTA has many unexpected overhauls. The inventory accumulation cycle is expected to continue, and it is recommended to wait and see [26]. - For PTA, the supply overhaul volume is high, and the de - stocking pattern continues, but the processing fee space is limited. The demand is expected to remain high, but the terminal shows signs of weakness. It is recommended to wait and see [27]. - For ethylene glycol, the supply is high, imports are increasing, and inventories are expected to accumulate in the fourth quarter. The valuation is relatively high, and it is recommended to short on rallies [31]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Information**: The main INE crude oil futures closed down 8.10 yuan/barrel, a 1.79% decline, at 443.70 yuan/barrel. Singapore's ESG oil product weekly data showed gasoline inventory decreased by 1.90 million barrels to 11.49 million barrels, diesel inventory increased by 0.26 million barrels to 10.06 million barrels, fuel oil inventory decreased by 0.89 million barrels to 23.67 million barrels, and total refined oil inventory decreased by 2.53 million barrels to 45.22 million barrels [2]. - **Strategy View**: Although the geopolitical premium has disappeared and OPEC's production increase is minimal with supply not yet surging, short - term oil prices are not advisable to be overly bearish. A low - buy and high - sell range strategy is maintained, but it is recommended to wait and see for now, waiting for a decline in OPEC exports when oil prices fall for verification [3]. Methanol - **Market Information**: The price in Taicang increased by 32 yuan, Inner Mongolia decreased by 5 yuan, and Lunan decreased by 10 yuan. The 01 - contract on the futures market increased by 24 yuan, at 2298 yuan/ton, and the basis changed from negative to positive at +19. The 1 - 5 spread changed by +13, at - 13 [4]. - **Strategy View**: With reduced import disturbances, prices are expected to return to be priced by its own fundamentals. Supply is high due to increased domestic production and rising imports, while demand is weak. Although the current fundamental situation is weak, short - selling is not cost - effective, and it is recommended to wait and see [5]. Urea - **Market Information**: Spot prices in Shandong and Henan remained stable. The 01 - contract on the futures market increased by 3 yuan, at 1600 yuan, and the basis was - 50. The 1 - 5 spread changed by - 6, at - 74 [7]. - **Strategy View**: Domestic supply has returned with increased production, and demand is weak in the off - season. It is in a state of low valuation and weak drive, and it is recommended to wait and see [7]. Rubber - **Market Information**: Rubber prices were oscillating and showed signs of stabilization. The long - side of natural rubber RU was bullish due to seasonal and demand expectations, while the short - side was bearish due to weak demand. Tire开工率 decreased during the National Day holiday, and the social inventory of natural rubber in China decreased by 0.77 million tons to 108 million tons as of October 12, 2025 [10][11]. - **Strategy View**: Macro disturbances may temporarily decrease, and rubber prices have stabilized in the short term. It is recommended to set stop - losses, buy on dips for short - term trading, and partially build positions for the hedge of buying RU2601 and selling RU2609 [13]. PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC01 contract decreased by 15 yuan, at 4677 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4580 yuan/ton, and the basis was - 97 (+15) yuan/ton. The 1 - 5 spread was - 314 (+2) yuan/ton. The overall PVC operating rate was 82.6%, a 1.2% increase, and factory and social inventories increased [13]. - **Strategy View**: The supply is strong while demand is weak, and export expectations are poor. Although the valuation has declined to a low level, it is still difficult to support the weak supply - demand situation, and it is recommended to short on rallies in the medium term [14]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The cost of East China pure benzene was 5590 yuan/ton, a 35 - yuan/ton decrease. The spot price of styrene was 6550 yuan/ton, a 50 - yuan/ton decrease. The closing price of the active styrene contract was 6540 yuan/ton, a 4 - yuan decrease. The basis was 10 yuan/ton, a 46 - yuan weakening. The supply - side upstream operating rate was 73.61%, a 0.41% increase, and Jiangsu port inventory decreased by 0.54 million tons [17]. - **Strategy View**: The cost of pure benzene is high, and the supply of benzene styrene is increasing while demand is declining. Port inventories are being depleted, and benzene styrene prices may stop falling in the short term [18]. Polyethylene - **Market Information**: The closing price of the main contract was 6910 yuan/ton, an 8 - yuan decrease. The spot price was 7035 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis was 125 yuan/ton, a 8 - yuan strengthening. The upstream operating rate was 81.1%, a 0.28% decrease, and inventories of production enterprises and traders increased [20]. - **Strategy View**: The cost support has weakened, and although the valuation decline space is limited, high - level warehouse receipts suppress the market. It is expected to maintain a low - level oscillation [21]. Polypropylene - **Market Information**: The closing price of the main contract was 6595 yuan/ton, a 7 - yuan decrease. The spot price was 6650 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis was 55 yuan/ton, a 7 - yuan strengthening. The upstream operating rate was 77.06%, a 1.46% decrease, and inventories of production enterprises, traders, and ports increased [22]. - **Strategy View**: The cost end is expected to have an oversupply situation, and there is high inventory pressure with weak supply and demand. It is recommended to wait and see [23]. PX, PTA, and MEG PX - **Market Information**: The PX01 contract decreased by 26 yuan, at 6312 yuan. PX CFR increased by 8 dollars, at 787 dollars. The basis was 128 yuan (+89). The 1 - 3 spread was - 16 yuan (unchanged). The Chinese PX load was 87.4%, a 1% increase, and the Asian load was 79.9%, a 1.9% increase. Some domestic and overseas plants restarted or underwent maintenance [25]. - **Strategy View**: Currently, the PX load remains high, and the downstream PTA has many unexpected overhauls in the short term. The inventory accumulation cycle is expected to continue. Although the valuation is at a neutral - low level, there is limited downward space. It is recommended to wait and see, paying attention to changes in the terminal and PTA valuations [26]. PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA01 contract decreased by 18 yuan, at 4422 yuan. The East China spot price decreased by 55 yuan, at 4325 yuan. The basis was - 85 yuan (- 3). The 1 - 5 spread was - 60 yuan (- 2). The PTA load was 74.4%, a 2.7% decrease. Some plants adjusted their loads. Social inventory increased by 5.3 million tons on October 10 [26]. - **Strategy View**: In the future, the supply overhaul volume remains high, and the de - stocking pattern continues, but the processing fee space is limited. The demand for polyester fiber has low inventory and profit pressure, and the load is expected to remain high, but the terminal shows signs of weakness. It is recommended to wait and see [27]. MEG - **Market Information**: The EG01 contract decreased by 4 yuan, at 4057 yuan. The East China spot price decreased by 31 yuan, at 4114 yuan. The basis was 65 yuan (- 3). The 1 - 5 spread was - 86 yuan (+2). The supply - side EG load was 75.1%, a 1.6% increase. Some domestic and overseas plants adjusted their loads. Port inventory increased by 3.4 million tons [27][30]. - **Strategy View**: In terms of industry fundamentals, the operating loads of domestic and overseas plants are high, domestic supply is large, imports are increasing, and ports are turning to inventory accumulation. In the medium term, with concentrated imports and expected high domestic loads, along with the gradual commissioning of new plants, inventory is expected to continue to accumulate in the fourth quarter. The current valuation is still relatively high year - on - year, and there is pressure to continuously compress the valuation. It is recommended to short on rallies [31].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The market risk preference may be suppressed in the short - term due to Trump's statement on tariff hikes, causing A - shares to decline, but the stock index is expected to fall first and then rebound, with an upward long - term trend [3]. - The bond market warms up due to stock market adjustments and loose liquidity, and short - term treasury bond futures are expected to continue to fluctuate within a range [3]. - Gold has large market fluctuations before the APEC meeting in South Korea at the end of October, and silver maintains a strong trend [3]. - Steel products' hot - rolled coils have accumulated inventory, and attention should be paid to post - holiday demand recovery; the iron ore market has weakened [3]. - The price of crude oil is under pressure due to Sino - US trade tensions and a pessimistic IEA report; most chemical products have weak supply - demand expectations [3]. - Agricultural products such as soybeans, corn, and palm oil are affected by various factors and show different trends, with some under pressure and some in a weak pattern [3]. - Special commodities like soda ash and glass are in a situation of oversupply and weak operation; industrial silicon prices are weakly fluctuating [3]. - New energy products such as polysilicon and lithium carbonate have different trends, with polysilicon having a late - session rebound and lithium carbonate having a tight - balance fundamental situation [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Financial Index Futures - The stock index rises and then falls, with a style switch on the market. Due to the tariff conflict, the stock index is expected to fall first and then rebound in the short - term, and the long - term upward trend remains unchanged. Conservative investors can wait for the volatility to converge and then enter the market at low prices [3]. Treasury Bonds - The stock market adjustment and loose liquidity promote the bond market to warm up. Short - term treasury bond futures are expected to continue to fluctuate within a range. For example, T2512 may fluctuate between 107.4 - 108.3, and it is recommended to wait and see for over - adjustment opportunities [3]. Precious Metals - Gold has large fluctuations before the APEC meeting in South Korea at the end of October. One can choose to buy lightly above 910 yuan and set stop - loss and take - profit. Silver maintains a strong trend above 50 dollars [3]. Shipping Index (European Line) - From the perspective of macro - uncertainty factors, it is recommended to be cautious and wait and see [3]. Black Steel - Hot - rolled coils have accumulated a lot of inventory, and attention should be paid to post - holiday demand recovery. The profit of the coil - screw spread converges [3]. Iron Ore - Supply - side disturbances weaken, shipments decline, arrivals increase, and the iron ore market weakens. It is recommended to wait and see for the time being, with a reference range of 750 - 830 [3]. Coking Coal - After the holiday, coal prices in coal - producing areas are weak, downstream replenishment demand weakens, and there are concerns about reduced Mongolian coal supply. It is recommended to go long on JM2601 at low prices, with a reference range of 1080 - 1200 [3]. Coke - The first round of price increases was implemented before the holiday, and there is not much room for further increases. It is recommended to go long on J2601 at low prices, with a reference range of 1550 - 1700 [3]. Non - ferrous - Copper prices fluctuate, and it is recommended to take profit on long positions at high prices. Aluminum, zinc, nickel, stainless steel, etc. all have corresponding price reference ranges and operation suggestions [3]. - Tin can be bought when the macro - sentiment drops. Energy and Chemical Crude Oil - Sino - US trade tensions and a pessimistic IEA report suppress oil prices. It is recommended to maintain a short - selling strategy on the single side, with support levels for different benchmarks provided [3]. Chemical Products - Most chemical products such as urea, PX, PTA, etc. have weak supply - demand expectations, and corresponding operation suggestions such as short - selling on rebounds and month - spread reverse arbitrage are given [3]. Agricultural Products - Different agricultural products such as soybeans, corn, palm oil, sugar, cotton, eggs, apples, and dates are affected by various factors and show different trends and price ranges, with corresponding operation suggestions [3]. Special Commodities - Soda ash and glass are in a situation of oversupply and weak operation, and it is recommended to hold short positions. Rubber can be observed during the peak - production period, and industrial silicon prices fluctuate within a range [3]. New Energy - Polysilicon rebounds in the late session, and it is recommended to hold long positions. Lithium carbonate has a tight - balance fundamental situation, with a price - center reference range of 70,000 - 75,000 yuan [3].