Economic Indicators - In May 2025, China's manufacturing PMI rose to 49.5%, an increase of 0.5 percentage points from April[1] - The non-manufacturing business activity index in May was 50.3%, a decrease of 0.1 percentage points from April[1] - The comprehensive PMI output index increased to 50.4%, up 0.2 percentage points from April[1] Factors Influencing PMI - The rise in manufacturing PMI was primarily driven by the implementation of proactive macro policies and a rebound in exports due to the easing of the US-China tariff conflict[2] - New credit and social financing in May were supported by a series of financial policy measures, including a 0.25 percentage point reduction in public housing loan rates[2] - The new export orders index and import index rose to 47.5% and 47.1%, respectively, reflecting increases of 2.8 and 3.7 percentage points from the previous month[2] Challenges and Limitations - Despite the improvements, the manufacturing PMI remains in a contraction zone, influenced by high tariffs over 40% from the US and ongoing adjustments in the domestic real estate market[3] - High-frequency data indicated a decline in operating rates in most industries, except for those related to infrastructure investment, which saw an increase[3] Price Trends - The manufacturing PMI's price indices both fell slightly by 0.1 percentage points, remaining in a deep contraction zone, with PPI expected to decline further from -2.7% to around -3.1% year-on-year[4] - High-tech manufacturing PMI remained above 51.5% for four consecutive months, indicating strong growth and resilience in this sector[4] Service Sector Insights - The service sector PMI was 50.2%, up 0.1 percentage points from April, supported by increased tourism during the May Day holiday[5] - The construction PMI fell to 51.0%, down 0.9 percentage points, primarily due to a decline in real estate investment activities[5] Future Outlook - The implementation of steady growth policies is expected to provide crucial support for macroeconomic operations, with a focus on expanding domestic demand and accelerating infrastructure investment[6] - The manufacturing PMI is projected to rise further to around 49.7% in June, driven by the "export rush" effect following the easing of tariffs[6]

Group 1 - The manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for May recorded 49.5%, an increase of 0.5 percentage points from the previous month, indicating signs of improvement in manufacturing activity and positive changes in economic operations [1] - The production index reached 50.7%, up 0.9 percentage points from last month, indicating a recovery in production activities [1] - The new orders index was at 49.8%, rising 0.6 percentage points, suggesting a rebound in market demand [1] Group 2 - Large enterprises showed significant performance, with the PMI index rising to 50.7%, an increase of 1.5 percentage points, returning to the expansion zone [1] - The equipment manufacturing and consumer goods industries had PMIs of 51.2% and 50.2%, respectively, up 1.6 and 0.8 percentage points from the previous month [1] - High-tech manufacturing continued its positive development trend, with a PMI of 50.9%, remaining in the expansion zone for four consecutive months [1] Group 3 - Positive signals emerged in foreign trade, with the new export orders index and import index at 47.5% and 47.1%, respectively, increasing by 2.8 and 3.7 percentage points [1] - The export container freight index rose to 1117.61 points, up 0.9%, indicating a sustained positive market trend [1] - Port cargo throughput remained high, with a total of 27134.8 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 2.8% [1] Group 4 - The production and business activity expectation index was stable at 52.5%, up 0.4 percentage points, reflecting overall confidence among manufacturing enterprises [2] - Continuous implementation of growth-stabilizing policies, including interest rate cuts, has supported the rebound in manufacturing PMI [2] - Multiple leading indicators suggest that the economic operation in the second quarter is likely to maintain a stable trend, with improvements in manufacturing sentiment and export data providing strong support for economic stability [2]

Group 1: Manufacturing Sector - In May, China's Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) rose by 0.5 percentage points to 49.5%, indicating an improvement in manufacturing sentiment [2][5] - The production index increased to 50.7%, up 0.9 percentage points from the previous month, signaling accelerated manufacturing activity [2] - The new orders index rose to 49.8%, reflecting a 0.6 percentage point increase, suggesting a positive trend in demand [2] Group 2: Export and Trade - The new export orders index and import index increased to 47.5% and 47.1%, respectively, with rises of 2.8 and 3.7 percentage points [4] - The export container freight index rose by 0.9% to 1117.61 points, indicating a recovery in shipping rates [4] - Port cargo throughput reached 27,134.8 million tons, a 2.8% increase, while container throughput rose to 656.4 thousand TEUs, up 3.63% [4] Group 3: Economic Policy and Outlook - Experts emphasize the need for continued and coordinated efforts in growth-stabilizing policies to solidify the economic recovery [5][6] - The government is expected to enhance public investment to boost market demand and corporate orders, aiming to activate the domestic market [6] - New incremental policies are anticipated to be introduced by the end of June to support employment and economic stability [6]

5月31日，国家统计局服务业调查中心和中国物流与采购联合会发布了中国采购经理指数。数据显示，5 月份，制造业采购经理指数（PMI）为49.5%，环比上升0.5个百分点；非制造业商务活动指数为 50.3%，环比下降0.1个百分点；综合PMI产出指数为50.4%，环比上升0.2个百分点，我国经济总体产出 保持扩张。 中国物流与采购联合会特约分析师张立群向《证券日报》记者表示，5月份PMI指数出现回升，表明加 紧实施更加积极有为的宏观政策综合成效已开始显现。同时，生产指数、采购量指数、新订单指数均出 现回升，表明在多项政策综合效应下，企业预期改善，生产经营活动有回暖迹象。 企业预期有所回升 5月份PMI环比上升，显示出经济运行有所回稳。分项指数变化显示，需求整体趋稳运行，企业生产止 降回升，新动能持续向好发展，大型企业回升向好，小型企业有所改善，企业预期有所回升。 具体来看，生产指数为50.7%，环比上升0.9个百分点，升至临界点以上，制造业生产活动有所加快；新 订单指数为49.8%，环比上升0.6个百分点。 值得关注的是，进出口指数均有回升。新出口订单指数和进口指数分别为47.5%和47.1%，分别环比上 升2. ...

Group 1: Manufacturing Sector - The manufacturing PMI for May 2025 is reported at 49.5%, a 0.5 percentage point increase from the previous month, aligning with market expectations[2][4] - The production index rose to 50.7%, up 0.9 percentage points from last month, indicating a recovery in production activities[5][14] - New orders index increased to 49.8%, up 0.6 percentage points, reflecting improved demand conditions[5][14] - High-tech manufacturing PMI stands at 50.9%, while energy-intensive industries continue to decline, with a PMI of 47.0%[6][19] Group 2: Service and Construction Sectors - The service sector PMI slightly increased to 50.2%, driven by the "May Day" holiday effect, with significant activity in tourism and hospitality[31][32] - The construction sector PMI is at 51.0%, down 0.9 percentage points, indicating a slowdown in expansion due to housing demand constraints, although infrastructure projects are accelerating[35][36] - Special bonds issuance in May reached 443.2 billion yuan, significantly higher than April's 230.1 billion yuan, supporting investment in infrastructure[35]

Group 1: Manufacturing Sector - In May, the manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) rose to 49.5%, an increase of 0.5 percentage points from the previous month, indicating an improvement in manufacturing sentiment [1] - The production index for manufacturing activities returned to the expansion zone at 50.7%, up 0.9 percentage points from last month, reflecting a recovery in production activities [1] - New orders index increased to 49.8%, up 0.6 percentage points, while the business activity expectation index rose to 52.5%, indicating stable confidence among manufacturers regarding market development [1] Group 2: High-Tech and Equipment Manufacturing - The high-tech manufacturing PMI stood at 50.9%, maintaining expansion for four consecutive months, while the equipment manufacturing and consumer goods PMIs were 51.2% and 50.2%, respectively, both showing month-on-month increases [2] - New orders indices for both high-tech and equipment manufacturing remained above 52%, indicating strong market demand [2] Group 3: Non-Manufacturing Sector - The non-manufacturing business activity index was 50.3%, slightly down 0.1 percentage points but still above the critical point, indicating stable growth in the service sector [3] - The service sector business activity index rose to 50.2%, driven by increased consumer activity during the "May Day" holiday, with a business activity expectation index of 56.5%, reflecting optimism among service providers [3] - The construction industry continued to expand, with the civil engineering business activity index at 62.3%, up 1.4 percentage points, indicating accelerated project construction [3] Group 4: Economic Outlook and Policy Implications - The rise in manufacturing PMI in May suggests that proactive macroeconomic policies are beginning to show results, although the price index remains slightly down, indicating an oversupply situation [4] - Experts emphasize the need for continued government investment in public goods to support production and employment recovery, while also advocating for measures to boost domestic demand and enhance external trade [4] - The manufacturing sector's recovery is still under observation due to external uncertainties and the fact that many sub-indices remain below 50%, indicating potential risks [4]

Group 1 - In May, the manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) in China rose to 49.5%, indicating an improvement in manufacturing sentiment and economic stability [1] - Both supply and demand in the manufacturing sector showed recovery, with the production index exceeding 50%, signaling accelerated manufacturing activities [3] - The high-tech manufacturing PMI has remained in the expansion zone for four consecutive months, indicating a positive development trend [3] Group 2 - The production and new order indices for industries such as agricultural processing, specialized equipment, and aerospace have exceeded 54%, reflecting rapid growth in supply and demand [4] - The PMI for large enterprises has rebounded above 50%, showing a swift recovery, while small enterprises also experienced significant improvements, demonstrating the resilience of the Chinese economy [6] - The non-manufacturing business activity index for May was 50.3%, indicating continued expansion, with positive performances in investment, consumption, and export-related sectors [6]

Core Viewpoint - The manufacturing PMI in May shows signs of recovery, indicating the effectiveness of proactive macro policies, while the non-manufacturing sector continues to expand, laying a solid foundation for economic recovery [1][3][9]. Manufacturing Sector - The manufacturing PMI for May is reported at 49.5%, an increase of 0.5 percentage points from the previous month, while the comprehensive PMI output index is at 50.4%, up by 0.2 percentage points [1]. - Key sub-indices such as production, new orders, and procurement have shown improvement, with increases ranging from 0.2 to 3.7 percentage points [3]. - High-tech manufacturing PMI remains in the expansion zone at 50.9%, marking four consecutive months of growth [2][3]. Non-Manufacturing Sector - The non-manufacturing business activity index stands at 50.3%, maintaining above the expansion threshold for five consecutive months [9]. - Significant growth in new orders and export orders in the equipment manufacturing and high-tech sectors, with new export orders rising over 5 and 3 percentage points respectively [4][10]. Price Indices - The purchasing price index for manufacturing is at 46.9%, and the factory price index is at 44.7%, both showing a slight decrease but with a narrowing decline compared to the previous month [6]. - The overall market price decline has slowed, indicating a potential stabilization in demand and production [6]. Employment and Investment - Production investment is showing signs of recovery, contributing to an improving employment situation [7]. - The focus is on activating the domestic market and achieving the goal of expanding domestic demand to support economic circulation [7]. Economic Outlook - The overall economic operation shows a foundation for continued recovery, supported by stable non-manufacturing activities and positive performance in investment, consumption, and exports [8][10].

美国与欧盟的贸易谈判传来最新消息。 当地时间5月30日，欧盟委员会负责贸易和经济安全等事务的委员谢夫乔维奇与美国商务部长卢特尼克通话， 强调持续合作推动前瞻性解决方案，试图就双方贸易谈判进行沟通。据美媒报道，欧盟希望美国取消对钢铁和 汽车征收的25%关税，并希望美国总统特朗普放弃所谓的"对等关税"。 与此同时，欧盟委员会贸易委员东布罗夫斯基斯当天表示，近期美国法院对特朗普政府"对等关税"合法性的裁 决，给本已复杂的贸易环境再添一层不确定性。当前贸易谈判环境已充满变数，形势瞬息万变。 目前围绕关税的"司法大战"正面临较大的变数，包括美国企业在内的全球企业因"关税战"造成的损失也在持续 增加。据最新报道，因特朗普政府关税政策导致的成本上升和销售减少，全球主要大型企业的损失已经达到了 340亿美元。 关税的变数 据央视新闻客户端，当地时间30日，欧盟委员会负责贸易和经济安全等事务的委员塞夫科维奇与美国商务部长 卢特尼克通话，强调持续合作推动前瞻性解决方案，试图就双方贸易谈判进行沟通。 另据路透社报道，塞夫科维奇在社交平台上发帖称："我们投入了充足的时间和精力，因为提供前瞻性的解决 方案仍然是欧盟的首要任务。我们将保 ...

国家统计局5月31日发布数据显示， 5月份，制造业采购经理指数（PMI）为49.5%，比上月上升0.5个 百分点； 非制造业商务活动指数为50.3%，比上月下降0.1个百分点；综合PMI产出指数为50.4%，比上 月上升0.2个百分点，我国经济总体产出保持扩张。 制造业PMI回升 国家统计局服务业调查中心高级统计 师赵庆河表示，5月份，制造业PMI为49.5%，景气水平 比上月改善。 图片来源：国家统计局 企业生产加快。 5月份，生产指数为50.7%，比上月上升0.9个百分点，升至临界点以上，制造业生产活 动有所加快。新订单指数为49.8%，比上月上升0.6个百分点。 大型企业PMI升至临界点以上。 5月份，大型企业PMI为50.7%，比上月上升1.5个百分点，重返扩张区 间，其生产指数和新订单指数分别为51.5%和52.5%，比上月上升1.7和3.0个百分点；中型企业PMI为 47.5%，比上月下降1.3个百分点，景气水平回落；小型企业PMI为49.3%，比上月上升0.6个百分点，景 气水平有所改善。 高技术制造业延续扩张。 5月份，从重点行业看，高技术制造业PMI为50.9%，连续4个月保持在扩张区 间， ...