Market Overview - Hong Kong stocks rebounded after hitting a low, with the Hang Seng Index closing up 0.72% at 25,967.98 points and a total turnover of HKD 2,452.56 million [1] - The Hang Seng Tech Index rose 0.48%, indicating a positive sentiment in the tech sector, particularly benefiting from AI narratives [1] Blue-Chip Stocks Performance - Meituan-W (03690) saw a significant increase of 4.06%, closing at HKD 100, contributing 33.69 points to the Hang Seng Index [2] - Li Ning (02331) rose 6.55% to HKD 18.54, contributing 4.22 points to the index [2] - China Hongqiao (01378) increased by 4.48% to HKD 26.58, contributing 4.97 points [2] - China National Offshore Oil Corporation (00883) rose 2.15% to HKD 19.92, contributing 10.27 points [2] Sector Highlights Banking Sector - Major banks continued to rise, with Postal Savings Bank (01658) up 4.59% and Agricultural Bank (01288) up 1.88% [3] - The banking sector is expected to show stable performance with a resilient operating environment, as the third-quarter reports are anticipated to reflect steady revenue growth [3] Oil Sector - The "Big Three" oil companies were active, with CNOOC (00883) up 2.15% and Sinopec (00386) up 1.69% [4] - International oil prices rose significantly, with WTI crude oil up 2.20% to USD 58.50 per barrel, driven by geopolitical tensions and sanctions on Russian oil companies [4] Lithium Sector - Lithium stocks surged, with Ganfeng Lithium (01772) up 8% and Tianqi Lithium (09696) up 5.1% [4] - The price of lithium carbonate futures rose over 4%, indicating strong demand from the electric vehicle and energy storage markets [5] Pharmaceutical Sector - Pharmaceutical stocks faced pressure, with Rongchang Bio (09995) down 10.93% and Innovent Biologics (01877) down 3.95% [6] - The sector's underperformance is attributed to tariff impacts and slower-than-expected external licensing developments [6] Notable Stock Movements - Giant Bio (02367) rebounded significantly, closing up 6.68% after receiving a medical device registration certificate [7] - Li Ning (02331) announced its entry into Meituan's flash purchase platform, enhancing its distribution capabilities [8] - Sands China (01928) reported a 7.5% year-on-year increase in net revenue for Q3, closing up 4.4% [9] - Dreamland (01119) saw a 4.31% increase after launching a new mobile game that topped various app store charts [10]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The macro - economic data shows a complex picture with some indicators rising and others falling, which may impact different industries differently. For example, GDP growth slowed slightly, while exports and imports showed positive growth [1]. - In the commodity market, there are significant fluctuations in metals, energy, and agricultural products. Gold prices dropped sharply, while oil prices rose due to various factors such as sanctions and inventory changes [3][9]. - The bond market is in a state of narrow - range consolidation, and the stock market shows a mixed performance with some sectors rising and others falling [22][31]. 3. Summary by Directory Macro Data - GDP growth in Q3 2025 was 4.8% year - on - year, slightly lower than the previous quarter's 5.2% [1]. - Manufacturing PMI in September 2025 was 49.8%, up from 49.4% last month [1]. - Social financing scale in September 2025 was 35296 billion yuan, compared with 25660 billion yuan last year [1]. - M1 growth in September 2025 was 7.2% year - on - year, a significant increase from - 3.3% last year [1]. - CPI fell 0.3% year - on - year in September 2025, while PPI dropped 2.3% [1]. - Export and import values in September 2025 increased by 8.3% and 7.4% year - on - year respectively [1]. Commodity Investment Metals - International gold prices tumbled over 6% on October 21, 2025, leading domestic gold retailers to cut prices [3]. - Some banks raised the investment threshold for gold accumulation products [4]. - Global physical gold ETFs had record inflows in Q3 2025, with total AUM reaching 4720 billion dollars [4]. - Citi expects copper prices to reach $12,000 per ton by Q2 2026 [5]. Coal, Coke, Steel, and Minerals - Vale's Q3 iron ore production was 9440 million tons, a 3.8% year - on - year increase [8]. Energy and Chemicals - US oil and Brent crude prices rose due to expected sanctions on Russia and a decrease in US EIA crude inventory [9]. - Russia's oil company is increasing diesel and gasoline production [9]. - South Korea will reduce fuel tax relief from November [9]. Agricultural Products - The US government launched a plan to boost domestic beef production [11]. - India and the US are close to a trade deal that may lower US tariffs on Indian goods [12]. Financial News Open Market - The central bank conducted 1382 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations on October 22, with a net injection of 947 billion yuan [13]. Key News - The China Fund Association is about to release a draft on public fund performance benchmarks [14]. - 11 provinces had per - capita disposable income over 30,000 yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, with two new additions compared to last year [15]. - The central bank is expected to use various tools to adjust liquidity in Q4, and new policy - based financial instruments will support the economy [16]. - Hong Kong is promoting multiple financial initiatives, such as including REITs in the Stock Connect and expanding offshore RMB business [16][17]. Bond Market - The Chinese bond market was in narrow - range consolidation, with some bond prices rising and others falling [22]. - European and US bond yields showed different trends, with most European yields rising and US yields falling [25][26]. Foreign Exchange Market - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar closed at 7.1245 on October 23, down 74 points from the previous day [27]. Research Reports - Huatai Fixed Income believes that the new policy - based financial tools can support infrastructure investment in the short term and promote economic transformation in the long term [28]. - Dongwu Fixed Income points out that the expansion of the Sci - tech Bond ETF creates opportunities for component bonds [28]. Stock Market - A - shares showed a mixed performance, with some sectors like real estate and banks rising, while others like electrolytes and gold falling [31]. - The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index fell 0.94%, with pharmaceutical and tech stocks generally declining [31].

Core Insights - China's foreign exchange receipts reached a record high of $11.6 trillion in the first three quarters, with a slight net outflow of $3.1 billion in September, which turned into a net inflow in October [1][5]. Market Developments - Indonesia plans to issue offshore RMB-denominated sovereign bonds for the first time, with maturities of 5 and 10 years, marking its entry into the dim sum bond market [2]. - The U.S. government has been in a shutdown for 22 days due to unresolved issues regarding medical subsidies, with potential continuation into November [2]. - Japan's Prime Minister has ordered a new round of economic measures, potentially exceeding last year's ¥13.9 trillion, aimed at alleviating inflationary pressures on households and businesses [5]. - The global physical gold ETFs saw the largest monthly inflow ever in September, with total inflows for the third quarter reaching a record $26 billion, bringing total assets under management to $472 billion [5]. - Japan's exports in September grew by 4.2% year-on-year, marking the first expansion in five months, although exports to the U.S. decreased by 13.3% [6]. - The U.S. federal debt surpassed $38 trillion for the first time, increasing by $1 trillion in just over two months [5]. Financial Market Trends - The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 0.71%, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite also experienced declines of 0.53% and 0.93%, respectively [8]. - COMEX gold futures rose by 0.18% to $4,116.60 per ounce, and silver futures increased by 1.00% to $48.18 per ounce [9]. - Crude oil prices saw significant increases, with U.S. oil rising by 3.74% to $59.38 per barrel and Brent crude up by 4.94% to $64.35 per barrel [10].

Group 1: Precious Metals Market - Precious metals experienced a collective decline after reaching historical highs, with gold down 1.82% to $4247.17 per ounce and silver down 4.12% to $51.87 per ounce as of October 17 [1] - Platinum and palladium futures saw more significant drops, with declines of 7.21% and 9.76% respectively [1] - The recent surge in gold and silver prices has led to increased volatility, prompting regulatory bodies to adjust trading limits and margin requirements for futures contracts [10] Group 2: Geopolitical Developments - Geopolitical risks have eased, with discussions of a potential meeting between Russian President Putin and U.S. President Trump occurring within two weeks [3] - The dialogue between Trump and Putin included topics such as U.S.-Russia relations and the ongoing Ukraine conflict, with Trump emphasizing the need to end hostilities for economic cooperation [4][8] - Ukrainian President Zelensky expressed a willingness to engage in bilateral or trilateral talks to achieve peace, highlighting the importance of U.S. security guarantees for Ukraine [7] Group 3: Oil Market Dynamics - International oil prices continued to decline, with Brent crude falling below $61 per barrel and WTI crude around $57 per barrel, attributed to oversupply and weak demand [12][13] - The oil market is facing a supply-demand imbalance, with OPEC+ expected to increase production, exacerbating the situation [13] - Geopolitical factors, including the recent ceasefire agreement in the Middle East and discussions between Trump and Putin, are expected to further weaken support for oil prices [14]

Group 1: Market Overview - On October 16, international gold prices closed above $4,300 per ounce, reaching a record high due to increased investor interest in gold as a risk hedge amid economic uncertainties [2] - The U.S. stock market experienced a decline after initial gains, with the Dow Jones down 0.65%, S&P 500 down 0.63%, and Nasdaq down 0.47% due to concerns over bank loan issues and fraud allegations [1] Group 2: Corporate Developments - Nestlé announced plans to cut approximately 16,000 jobs, equivalent to 6% of its total workforce, and aims to save about 3 billion Swiss francs (approximately 26.8 billion RMB) by the end of 2027, leading to a significant increase in its stock price by over 9% [3] Group 3: Economic Indicators - The UK GDP showed a minimal growth of 0.1% in August, with July's data revised to a contraction of 0.1%, indicating ongoing stagnation in the service sector and presenting challenges for the Chancellor [4] - U.S. crude oil inventories rose by 3.5 million barrels, significantly exceeding expectations, which contributed to a drop in international oil prices to a five-month low, with WTI crude at $57.46 per barrel and Brent crude at $61.06 per barrel [5]

前言：富格林与广大客户同金共富跨越15载，凭借丰富的市况行情分析经验积攒可靠口碑和广泛信任，有力协助曝光压制各式欺诈套路形成。 在全球经济风云变幻的当下，黄金作为避险资产的王者地位再次彰显。当前国际贸易紧张、地缘政治不确定性和货币政策宽松预期，继续给金 价提供上涨动能。黄金今年以来已累计上涨57%，黄金从周一首次叩开4100美元大门，到如今的持续上探，已然成为资本市场的焦点宠儿，继 续保持强劲势头。投资者如遭受欺诈套路困扰，可寻求富格林协助曝光，及时在线咨询分析师团队获取即时操作建议把握盈利先机。 富格林与广大客户同金共富跨越15载，凭借丰富的市况行情分析经验积攒可靠口碑和广泛信任，有力协助曝光压制各式欺诈套路形成。在周三 亚洲早盘交易中，黄金现货价格突破每盎司4185美元的历史高位，再度引发全球市场关注。国际贸易担忧、美国政府停摆、地缘政治风暴与货 币政策转向有望帮助金价进一步冲高。投资者如遭受欺诈套路困扰，可寻求富格林协助曝光，及时在线咨询分析师团队获取即时操作建议把握 盈利先机。 富格林据讯，周二现货黄金盘中触及4180美元/盎司关口，再创历史新高，随后出现闪崩，较日高回调近90美元，美盘重新走高，最终 ...

Global Asset Price Performance - Gold prices continued to rise, while global stock markets saw mixed results with the Nikkei 225 leading gains. The S&P 500, Dow Jones, and Nasdaq indices fell by 2.4%, 2.7%, and 2.5% respectively [2] - In the bond market, yields on government bonds in most countries declined, with the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield down by 8 basis points [2][3] - Commodity prices saw a decline in crude oil, with WTI and Brent crude down by 3.1% and 2.8% respectively, while London gold prices increased by 3.4% [2][3] - The U.S. dollar index strengthened by 1.1% [2] Major Central Bank Monetary Policies - The Federal Reserve's September meeting minutes revealed internal divisions regarding further rate cuts, with more than half of the officials expecting at least two more cuts this year, while others opposed further easing [4] - The European Central Bank considered another rate cut in September but decided against it due to rising inflation risks [4] U.S. Economic Dynamics - The U.S. government shutdown has entered its second week, affecting federal operations and delaying the release of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) [8] - Trade tensions with China have escalated, with the U.S. planning to impose additional tariffs on Chinese goods, leading to significant sell-offs in the stock market [9] - Consumer confidence has weakened, with the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index slightly dropping to 55 from 55.1, indicating concerns over employment and prices [9] Other Regional Economic Dynamics - Political instability in France has increased, with the September composite PMI dropping to 48.1%, while the Eurozone's overall situation remains stable with a composite PMI of 51.2% [17] - In Japan, the new leadership under Kishi Suga is expected to implement measures to address inflation and stimulate the economy, positively impacting market sentiment [17]

Market Overview - During the National Day holiday, global financial markets faced multiple risk events, including the U.S. government shutdown entering its eighth day and political changes in Japan and France impacting the markets [1] - U.S. stock markets continued to rise, with major indices reaching record highs, supported by expectations of interest rate cuts [1] - The dollar index reached a two-month high, while the Japanese yen fell to its lowest level since mid-February [1][2] Commodity Market - LME copper prices hit a 16-month high due to supply concerns, reaching $10,815 per ton, influenced by operational disruptions in major mines [3] - COMEX gold prices surpassed $4,000 per ounce for the first time, driven by expectations of interest rate cuts and geopolitical uncertainties [6] - Oil prices fell to a four-month low, with concerns over oversupply and OPEC's decision to maintain a modest production increase of 137,000 barrels per day [7][17] Agricultural Commodities - CBOT soybean futures rebounded after hitting a seven-week low, supported by lower yield forecasts and expectations of improved demand [9][10] Central Bank Insights - The Federal Reserve noted increased risks in the employment market while remaining vigilant about inflation, with discussions on potential interest rate adjustments ongoing [11][12] - The New Zealand central bank unexpectedly cut rates by 50 basis points, indicating concerns over economic weakness [13]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Views of the Report - The Fed may further ease monetary policy this year, which has an impact on various financial and commodity markets [1][11]. - During the National Day holiday, the cross - regional passenger flow in China increased by 6.2% year - on - year, and Chinese equity assets rose slightly but underperformed globally [2]. - The supply side is the key factor affecting the price trends of various commodities, and different commodities face different supply and demand situations [3][4][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Financial News and Reviews 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - Trump announced that Israel and Hamas signed the first phase of the peace plan, and the Fed's meeting minutes indicated that further easing might be appropriate this year [10][11]. - Gold prices rose to a record high of $4059 and then fell back, increasing by about 5% during the holiday due to risk - aversion sentiment. Short - term, the positive factors are fully priced, and there is a risk of a pullback [11]. - Investment advice: Be cautious of the risk of a decline due to long - position profit - taking after the price hits a new high [12]. 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - Macron plans to appoint a new prime minister, Trump said Israel and Hamas reached an agreement on hostage release and troop withdrawal, and the Fed's interest - rate meeting minutes showed internal differences on the number of interest - rate cuts [13][14][15]. - The US dollar index will fluctuate in the short term, and the market's risk appetite continues to rise [16][17]. - Investment advice: The US dollar index will remain volatile in the short term [18]. 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - Meta and Apple are about to reach a settlement with the EU Commission on antitrust cases, and the US Senate rejected the bipartisan temporary appropriation bill again [19][20]. - The Fed's meeting minutes showed internal differences among officials, but the market's optimistic sentiment towards AI and interest - rate cuts remains high, and the market is expected to remain strong [21]. - Investment advice: The US stock market is expected to maintain a strong trend after a small adjustment [22]. 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - China's Ambassador to the US called for expanding China - US cooperation, and the cross - regional passenger flow during the National Day holiday increased by 6.2% year - on - year [23][24]. - Chinese equity assets rose slightly during the holiday but underperformed globally. The market is still in a structural pattern, and the rhythm is more important than the position [25][26]. - Investment advice: The market is in a structural pattern, and rhythm is more important than position [26]. 3.1.5 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The manufacturing PMI in September was 49.8%, and the central bank conducted a 7 - day reverse repurchase operation of 2422 billion yuan [27][28]. - The bond market is expected to fluctuate in the first half of October and may strengthen after the 14th Five - Year Plan policies are implemented [28]. - Investment advice: The bond market is expected to fluctuate and bottom out in the short term. Short - term trading should be cautious, and medium - term long positions can be considered on dips [28]. 3.2 Commodity News and Reviews 3.2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - Indonesia is about to start the B50 road test [29]. - During the holiday, Malaysian palm oil led the rise in the overseas oil market. The market predicts that Malaysia's palm oil inventory will decline slightly in September [30]. - Investment advice: The domestic market is expected to make up for the rise after the holiday, but be cautious of a pullback after a high opening. In the long - term, go long after the clear signal of production reduction in the producing areas in the fourth quarter [30]. 3.2.2 Black Metals (Steam Coal) - The safety inspection in the Ordos steam coal market remains strict, and the coal price is expected to remain weak seasonally in October [31]. - Investment advice: The coal price is expected to remain weak in October, and pay attention to the policy game after the long - term agreement price [31]. 3.2.3 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - Japan's Nippon Steel and Champion Iron are promoting the Kami iron ore project [32]. - During the holiday, the iron ore price fluctuated narrowly around $104. The downstream finished - product market was weak, and the iron ore price is expected to continue to fluctuate narrowly [32][33]. - Investment advice: The iron ore price is expected to continue to fluctuate narrowly [33]. 3.2.4 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - In September, China's soybean imports and crushing volume decreased month - on - month, and the US soybean old - crop inventory as of September 1 was lower than expected [34][35]. - The Brazilian soybean sowing progress reached 8.2% as of October 4. The CBOT soybean price rose slightly during the holiday. The US government shutdown suspended the release of relevant reports [37]. - Investment advice: The soybean meal price is expected to fluctuate temporarily, and Sino - US relations are the main influencing factor [37]. 3.2.5 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - The EU plans to impose a 50% tariff on steel imports outside the quota [40]. - During the holiday, the overseas metal prices rose slightly, and the steel price is expected to rise slightly after the holiday, but the inventory accumulation during the holiday will suppress the spot price. Pay attention to the terminal demand [40]. - Investment advice: Treat the market with a range - bound mindset after the holiday and pay attention to the demand intensity [41]. 3.2.6 Agricultural Products (Red Dates) - The red date price in the Guangzhou Ruyifang market was stable, and the futures price of the main contract CJ601 fell [42]. - The supply in Xinjiang is normal, and the demand in the north - south distribution areas is stable. The new - season output and old - crop inventory are still being debated [42]. - Investment advice: Hold a wait - and - see attitude or conduct short - term operations in the short term, and pay attention to the fruit development in the producing areas and downstream consumption [42]. 3.2.7 Non - Ferrous Metals (Copper) - The ICSG predicts that the global copper mine production will increase by 1.4% in 2025 and 2.3% in 2026, and there will be a supply surplus in 2025 and a shortage in 2026 [43][44]. - Teck Resources lowered its copper production forecast for its Chilean flagship mine, and Aurubis raised the European copper premium for 2026 [45][46]. - Investment advice: Adopt a long - position strategy unilaterally, and pay attention to the domestic - foreign positive arbitrage [47]. 3.2.8 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lead) - The resumption of production of a small lead - zinc mine in Fujian was postponed to the end of October [48]. - The supply of lead has improved, and the demand is stable. The Shanghai lead price may fluctuate upward [50]. - Investment advice: Go long on dips unilaterally and pay attention to the positive arbitrage of the monthly spread [50]. 3.2.9 Non - Ferrous Metals (Zinc) - 29Metals withdrew its zinc production guidance due to an earthquake, and the resumption of production of a small lead - zinc mine in Fujian was postponed to the end of October [51][52]. - The LME zinc price is supported, and the domestic zinc export window may open. The inventory is expected to rise after the holiday [53]. - Investment advice: Adopt a wait - and - see attitude unilaterally, and pay attention to the medium - term positive arbitrage opportunity brought by the opening of the export window [53]. 3.2.10 Non - Ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - The expansion project of Xinjiang Dongfang Hope New Energy Co., Ltd.'s polysilicon plant is under environmental protection acceptance [54][55]. - The polysilicon price may remain flat, and the component price is expected to fluctuate in the short term [55][56]. - Investment advice: The market may fluctuate widely between 49,000 - 55,000 yuan/ton in October. Pay attention to the range - bound operation opportunities [57]. 3.2.11 Non - Ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - The SASAC called for抵制 "involution - style" competition [58]. - The inventory of industrial silicon is expected to accumulate slightly in September - October and decrease slightly in November - December [59]. - Investment advice: It is more cost - effective to go long on dips, but be cautious when chasing the price [59]. 3.2.12 Non - Ferrous Metals (Nickel) - Indonesia will re - implement the annual RKAB system in 2026 [60]. - During the holiday, the LME nickel price was strong. The nickel ore price is expected to rise, and the nickel iron and intermediate product prices are expected to remain strong, but the refined nickel inventory is under pressure [61]. - Investment advice: Conduct range - bound trading in the short term, and go long at low levels from a configuration perspective [62]. 3.2.13 Energy and Chemicals (Liquefied Petroleum Gas) - Saudi Arabia's October CP official prices fell, and the US C3 inventory decreased [63][64]. - The PG price is expected to be easy to rise and difficult to fall in the short term. Pay attention to the start - stop changes of PDH plants after the import cost drops [64]. - Investment advice: Pay attention to the start - stop changes of PDH plants after the import cost drops [64]. 3.2.14 Energy and Chemicals (Crude Oil) - Russia will gradually increase oil production, and the US EIA crude oil inventory increased [65][66]. - International oil prices rebounded after falling during the holiday. The release of supply by oil - producing countries is the key factor affecting the price [66]. - Investment advice: The decline of oil prices depends on whether the supply of oil - producing countries can be effectively released [67]. 3.2.15 Energy and Chemicals (Bottle Chips) - The export prices of bottle chip factories were mostly stable, with some slight decreases [68][69]. - The polyester raw material prices fell, and the bottle chip prices were under pressure. The demand is expected to be weak in the long term [70]. - Investment advice: The absolute price of bottle chips is at a low level, and the inventory of factories has decreased. Pay attention to the sustainability of production cuts and new capacity launches [70]. 3.2.16 Shipping Index (Container Freight Rate) - Maersk said that the freight volume from China to Latin America and Africa has increased [71]. - During the National Day holiday, the spot index fell below 1050, and the short - term market may be weak. Pay attention to the low - buying opportunities after the over - decline of the 12 - contract [71]. - Investment advice: Pay attention to the low - buying opportunities after the over - decline of the 12 - contract [72].

Economic Overview - The U.S. government shutdown began on October 1, with limited short-term economic impact expected, as most losses are projected to be recovered post-shutdown[1] - The unemployment rate in the Eurozone rose to 6.3% in September, higher than the expected 6.2%[25] - Japan's new Prime Minister, Kishi Sanae, is expected to continue a loose fiscal and monetary policy, impacting market dynamics positively[28] Employment Data - In September, ADP reported a decrease of 32,000 jobs, the largest drop since March 2023, significantly below the expected increase of 52,000[6] - Revelio Labs reported an increase of 60,000 jobs in September, slightly above market expectations, indicating a mixed employment landscape[6] Market Reactions - U.S. stock markets saw gains, with the S&P 500 up 0.77% and the Nasdaq up 1.24% from September 30 to October 6[2] - The Japanese Nikkei 225 index surged by 6.70% following the election of Kishi Sanae, reflecting investor optimism[2] Central Bank Policies - The Federal Reserve's interest rate cut expectations have increased, with market probabilities for a 25 basis point cut in October and December rising significantly[23] - The European Central Bank (ECB) remains committed to maintaining current interest rates despite rising unemployment and inflation data[25] Commodity Prices - Precious metals saw significant price increases, with gold rising by 2.80% and silver by 3.95% during the same period[2] - Oil prices experienced a slight decline of 1.09%, while natural gas prices increased by 1.63%[2] Risks and Uncertainties - There is a risk of an unexpected degree of economic recession overseas, which could impact global markets[2]