中信期货研究（有⾊每⽇报告） 2025-12-10 美联储12月利率决议临近，关注预期差 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 有⾊观点：美联储12⽉利率决议临近，关注预期差 交易逻辑：11月欧美制造业PMI普遍回落且美国11月ADP就业数据偏弱，投 资对美联储12月降息预期升温，整体上看，宏观面预期偏正面。原料端延 续偏紧局面，并逐步往冶炼端传导，供应端收缩风险仍然存在。终端略偏 弱，11月初汽车销售增速同比转降，11-12月空调排产降幅扩大，2026年 1-2月排产预计改善，基本金属现实供需略改善，预期偏紧。整体来看， 中短期，宏观面预期正面+供应扰动担忧推高价格，但美联储12月利率决 议公布前资金出现获利回吐，可谨慎关注铜铝锡低吸做多机会；长期，国 内潜在增量刺激政策预期仍在，并且铜铝锡供应扰动问题仍在，供需仍有 趋紧预期，看好铜铝锡价格走势。 铜观点：美联储议息会议将近，铜价⾼位震荡。 氧化铝观点：过剩状态未有明显改善，氧化铝价继续承压。 铝观点：宏观预期反复，铝价震荡回落。 铝合⾦观点：仓单延续回升，盘⾯⾼位震荡。 锌观点：社会库存下降，锌价⾼位震荡。 铅观点：社会库存仍处低位，铅价随有⾊ ...

华鑫证券近日发布有色金属行业周报：价格方面，周内伦敦黄金价格为4243.00美元/盎司，环比11月28 日+51.95美元/盎司，涨幅为1.24%。周内伦敦白银价格为58.11美元/盎司，环比11月28日+4.20美元/盎 司，涨幅为7.78%。 以下为研究报告摘要： 贵金属：PCE符合预期，12月降息概率较大 价格方面，周内伦敦黄金价格为4243.00美元/盎司，环比11月28日+51.95美元/盎司，涨幅为1.24%。周 内伦敦白银价格为58.11美元/盎司，环比11月28日+4.20美元/盎司，涨幅为7.78%。 数据方面，美国11月标普全球制造业PMI终值52.2，前值51.9，预期51.9。美国11月ISM制造业指数 48.2，前值48.7，预期49。美国9月核心PCE物价指数同比2.8%，前值2.9%，预期2.8%。美国9月PCE物 价指数同比2.8%，前值2.7%，预期2.8%。美国9月实际个人消费支出（PCE）环比0%，前值0.2%，预期 0.1%。 本周公布的重磅数据为美联储比较关心的9月PCE物价指数整体符合预期，且核心PCE指数同比数据环 比下滑，提升了市场对于美联储在12月进一步降息的 ...

7 . 昭衍新药(06127)涨超7.76% 。消息面上，据红星资本局报道，12月上旬，食蟹猴单价悄然跃过10 万元大关。 点击蓝字，关注我们 今日上午港股 1 . 百奥赛图-B(02315)涨超9.4% 。消息面上，百奥赛图今早发布公告称，经上海证券交易所审核同 意，百奥赛图(北京)医药科技股份有限公司发行的人民币普通股股票将于2025年12月10日在上海证券 交易所科创板上市。 2 . "中式面馆第一股"遇见小面(02408)涨4.69% 。消息面上，12月5日， 遇见小面董事长宋奇于上市仪 式上表示，本月底将于新加坡开设首家门店，反映公司向国际化迈出一步。 3 . 内房股集体下跌， 中国海外宏洋集团(00081)跌9.38%，绿城中国(03900)跌4.66%，新城发展(01030) 跌3.24%，融创中国(01918)跌1.55% 。 4. 海昌海洋公园(02255)再挫9% 。消息面上，近期，"祥源系"数款收益权产品到期未兑付事件持续发 酵。 5 . 有色股跌幅居前， 江西铜业股份(00358)跌6.24%，洛阳钼业(03993)跌6.48%，中国铝业(02600)跌 5.43%，紫金矿业(0289 ...

金融期货早评 宏观：国内宏观政策更积极有为 【市场资讯】1）中共中央政治局会议：明年经济工作要坚持稳中求进、提质增效，发挥存 量政策和增量政策集成效应，继续实施更加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策，加大 逆周期和跨周期调节力度，实施更加积极有为的宏观政策，持续扩大内需、优化供给，做 优增量、盘活存量。2）中国 11 月外贸增速大幅回升，以美元计价出口同比转增 5.9%，进 口同比增 1.9%；稀土出口环比增长 26.5%，成品油进口"量增价跌"、铜矿"量价齐增"，大 豆进口环比降 14.5%。3）美最高院暗示支持特朗普解雇独立政府机构 FTC 委员，90 年先例 要被推翻，但一位保守派法官称对削弱联储独立性存"顾虑"。4）特朗普发帖暗示高院可能 否决"对等关税"但有"B 计划"，美国公司"争先恐后"争夺"退税"。5）特朗普称本周将针对 人工智能发布单一规则行政命令，限制各州自行决策。6）特朗普称美国通胀问题已基本解 决，通胀会进一步小幅下降但否认会出现通缩。"影子联储主席"哈塞特：公布未来六个月 利率路径不负责，鲍威尔或也认为降息是审慎的。 【核心逻辑】海外市场聚焦美联储政策动向，下一任主席人选敲定预期升温 ...

Group 1: Precious Metals - The term structure of SHFE silver futures is close to flat, contrasting with the previous CONTANGO, mainly due to the tight spot market. The silver TD deferred fee has been consistently showing a short - to - long payment situation. After January, the spot tightness may ease, and the CONTANGO structure is expected to return [3] Group 2: Copper - This week, focus on the Fed's interest rate decision and the trend of the US CPI year - on - year data. Given that last week's macro and micro factors jointly boosted copper prices, this week, even if the macro expectations are realized, the "high - price but low - trading" situation at the micro - level needs to be digested, so beware of price adjustments at high levels [14] - The latest prices and daily changes of copper futures and spot are as follows: the latest price of Shanghai copper main contract is 92,970 yuan/ton, up 190 yuan or 0.2%; the latest price of LME copper 3M is 11,665 dollars/ton, up 231 dollars or 2.02%. Among spot prices, the latest price of Shanghai Non - ferrous 1 copper is 92,300 yuan/ton, up 715 yuan or 0.78% [15][20] Group 3: Aluminum and Alumina - Short - term Shanghai aluminum is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger, mainly driven by improved macro sentiment and the strong performance of copper. However, pay attention to the interest rate cut expectations and be vigilant against potential price corrections before the interest rate cut. Alumina is in an oversupply situation, with high domestic production capacity, an open import window, and a large number of incoming import alumina, which exacerbates the imbalance between supply and demand [34] - The latest price of Shanghai aluminum main contract is 22,275 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan or 0.31%; the latest price of alumina main contract is 2,585 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan or 1.17% [36] Group 4: Zinc - The ADP data indicates that an interest rate cut in December is certain. The next Fed Chairman may be pre - determined by Trump, raising doubts about the Fed's independence and potentially leading to more aggressive interest rate cuts. On the fundamental side, TC has dropped significantly, increasing the willingness of smelters to cut or stop production, resulting in supply contraction. The demand side is entering the off - season. Domestic inventory reduction due to exports and production cuts supports Shanghai zinc, while LME inventory is gradually increasing. Currently, with improving macro conditions but a stalemate in fundamentals, Shanghai zinc is undervalued among non - ferrous metals and is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger under the impetus of funds [59] - The latest price of Shanghai zinc main contract is 23,285 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan or 0.09%; the latest price of LME zinc closing price is 3,098 dollars/ton, up 7.5 dollars or 0.24% [60] Group 5: Nickel - Nickel ore is expected to be stable and slightly stronger as major mining areas in the Philippines and Indonesia have entered the rainy season, affecting production and shipping. The new energy sector has seen a certain decline following nickel prices, with most precursor factories having completed procurement, resulting in reduced downstream purchasing willingness. The decline of nickel iron has slowed, with some iron factories reducing production due to limited profits, and strong willingness of upstream suppliers to hold prices. The fundamentals of stainless steel have limited improvement. Currently, off - season demand is weak, so pay attention to Indonesian policies and the December interest rate cut expectations [75] - The latest price of Shanghai nickel main contract is 118,030 yuan/ton, up 240 yuan or 0%; the latest price of LME nickel 3M is 14,970 dollars/ton, up 85 dollars or - 0.02% [76] Group 6: Tin - The ADP data indicates a December interest rate cut, and Trump's frequent intervention in the next Fed Chairman raises doubts about the Fed's independence, potentially leading to more aggressive interest rate cuts. Pay attention to the Thursday interest rate meeting. On the fundamental side, in the short term, it is difficult to solve the raw material problem on the supply side, and there are frequent supply - side disturbances, so Shanghai tin will maintain a high - level volatile trend. The situation in the Democratic Republic of the Congo may ease due to potential peace talks [88] - The latest price of Shanghai tin main contract is 319,200 yuan/ton, up 1,700 yuan or 0.54%; the latest price of LME tin 3M is 40,175 dollars/ton, down 365 dollars or - 0.9% [89] Group 7: Lithium Carbonate - From the fundamental perspective, the arrival volume of lithium ore in December is expected to increase month - on - month, potentially alleviating the tight supply situation at the ore end. Lithium salt factories generally maintain a high operating rate, and the resumption progress of Jiaxiaowo Ningde needs to be closely monitored. The demand side shows the characteristic of "off - season not being off - season", with high pre - production schedules for power and energy storage terminals in December, driving strong purchasing demand from downstream material factories. The pattern of strong supply and demand continues, providing a bottom - level support for prices. Technically, the current price faces short - term pressure at the 100,000 yuan/ton mark, and there is a strong motivation for long - position holders to take profits at this level. Be vigilant against potential profit - taking by long - position holders due to increased differences among funds in the context of active market trading recently. In general, in the short term, be cautious about the risk of chasing high prices at the 100,000 yuan/ton mark, and the price may experience a phased correction [103] - The latest price of lithium carbonate futures main contract is 94,840 yuan/ton, up 2,680 yuan from the previous day but down 980 yuan from last week [104] Group 8: Industrial Silicon - Industrial silicon is currently in a situation of weak supply and demand, with both upstream and downstream having expectations of production cuts. The fundamentals lack substantial improvement momentum. Considering potential supply - side disturbances from winter environmental protection in production areas, the short - term fundamentals of the industry are unlikely to improve. Technically, the futures price has been moving within the Bollinger Bands, and in the short term, it will closely follow the price fluctuations of related products such as polysilicon and coking coal, and is likely to maintain a volatile consolidation trend. In the long - term, the downside space of the price is limited [117] - The latest price of industrial silicon main contract is 8,675 yuan/ton, down 130 yuan or - 1.48% [120]

｜2025年12月8日 星期一｜ 信达证券研报指出，9月以来市场缩量的内在原因是消化高换手率和部分板块交易拥挤，目前这两个原 因均有所缓和。本轮缩量震荡时间偏长，主要原因或在于当前市场资金面中，稳定的买入力量更多在于 中长期资金和产业资本，局部板块快速轮动的行情较难驱动居民资金大幅流入。另外也有年底存量机构 行为趋于稳健以及预期扰动下部分止盈资金离场的影响。但该机构认为当前时点可以保持乐观。一方 面，牛市中低成交量不是利空信号，事后来看，成交量低点大多情况下是牛市中较好的买入时点。 2005-2007年和2019-2021年，牛市中的调整或震荡期，成交量往往会快速萎缩。事后来看，成交量低点 通常也是市场阶段性低点。另一方面，历史上跨年行情启动之前，市场大多会先有一定的调整，本质上 是交易性资金为博弈跨年行情腾挪安全边际。2025年12月或成为布局跨年行情的窗口期。 NO.3 华西证券：跨年行情有望徐徐展开 华西证券认为，岁末年初，A股多路增量资金入市可以期待：一方面，海外美联储降息概率较大，人民 币汇率偏强运行有利于外资增配中国资产；另一方面，监管层下调保险资金股票投资风险因子和年初保 险资金"开门红"预期下 ...

｜2025年12月8日星期一｜ NO.1中信证券：库存拐点已至年内LME铜价有望加速迈向12000美元/吨 中信证券发布研报称，11月中旬以来库存拐点已现，叠加降息预期和国内减产发酵，年内LME铜价有 望加速迈向12000美元/吨。展望明年，"美铜囤货"与"国内减产"的双重叙事有望加速共振，供给缺口有 望拉阔60%，预计12000美元将成为铜价的崭新起点。全面推荐铜板块配置。 信达证券（601059）研报指出，9月以来市场缩量的内在原因是消化高换手率和部分板块交易拥挤，目 前这两个原因均有所缓和。本轮缩量震荡时间偏长，主要原因或在于当前市场资金面中，稳定的买入力 量更多在于中长期资金和产业资本，局部板块快速轮动的行情较难驱动居民资金大幅流入。另外也有年 底存量机构行为趋于稳健以及预期扰动下部分止盈资金离场的影响。但该机构认为当前时点可以保持乐 观。一方面，牛市中低成交量不是利空信号，事后来看，成交量低点大多情况下是牛市中较好的买入时 点。2005-2007年和2019-2021年，牛市中的调整或震荡期，成交量往往会快速萎缩。事后来看，成交量 低点通常也是市场阶段性低点。另一方面，历史上跨年行情启动之前，市场大 ...

周期半月谈 - 聚焦资源品与行业自律 20251207 摘要 有色金属价格将轮动上涨，降息和去美元化长期趋势不变，但短期受风 险偏好扰动。黄金市场前景乐观，受央行购金、ETF 购进及黄金代币化 推动，预计 2026 年黄金价格上涨空间可期，黄金股票估值具吸引力。 铜价短期暴涨因美国关税预期导致 LME 和 COMEX 价差扩大，美国市场 定价脱离基本面。2026 年美国虹吸效应或使非美地区面临紧仓风险， 但若 LME 挤仓或关税预期下降，美国可能重回基本面定价，带来阶段性 过剩风险。 铝价跟随铜价走势，全球电力紧张影响供应。国内产能见顶、海外能源 成本高企及投资周期约束使全球电解铝供应弹性减弱，预计 2025- 2030 年供给增速持续下滑，需牛市强化价格激励，偶发事件亦推动铝 价。 建材行业普遍经历盈利压力下的供给收缩，推荐消费建材和玻纤龙头。 细分赛道企业通过产品差异化获得超额利润，浮法玻璃龙头有望通过自 发冷修实现供给平衡并带动盈利修复。 Q&A 对于有色金属行业的整体看法是什么？ 我们继续保持对有色金属市场的乐观态度，认为其行情将持续波澜壮阔。受益 于江西地区的发展以及中美两国在 2026 年的积极财 ...

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - **Investment Outlook**: The overall market is expected to see an influx of capital due to adjustments in risk factors for major index constituents and new regulations for public funds, potentially leading to an increase of over 100 billion yuan in investment funds [1][2][3] - **Foreign Investment**: Initial foreign interest in Chinese assets was low at the beginning of the year, but is expected to gradually return in the second half, supported by a favorable exchange rate for the yuan [1][2][3] Key Points on Specific Industries Power Industry - **Electricity Pricing**: The national electricity price is anticipated to face downward pressure in 2026 due to supply easing and rapid construction of peak-shaving facilities. However, the role of thermal power is shifting towards auxiliary services, which will enhance profitability stability [4] - **High Dividend Stocks**: Companies like Huaneng and Huadian are highlighted as attractive due to their high dividend yields amidst limited downward space for profitability [4] Natural Gas Sector - **LNG Prices**: The price of imported LNG is expected to decline due to falling global prices and a decrease in oil prices, benefiting end-users [5] - **Investment Opportunities**: Companies such as Kunlun Energy and China Resources Gas are recommended for their high dividend yields and potential for valuation recovery [5] Copper Market - **Price Trends**: Copper prices have recently reached new highs, driven by structural inventory tightness and expectations of supply cuts. The price is currently around 91,600 yuan/ton domestically and 11,600 USD/ton internationally [6][8] - **Future Outlook**: The copper market is expected to remain strong due to ongoing supply-demand imbalances and potential tariff impacts on copper imports in the U.S. [7][8] - **Recommended Stocks**: Companies like Zijin Mining and Luoyang Molybdenum are recommended based on their favorable market positions [6][8] Gold Sector - **Market Performance**: The gold sector is viewed positively, with expectations of price increases supported by anticipated interest rate cuts and ongoing central bank purchases [9] - **Valuation**: Current valuations for gold stocks are considered low, with potential for significant upside if prices rise to 5,000 USD/oz [9] Chemical Industry - **Basic Chemicals**: The basic chemical sector is entering a favorable investment window due to supply-demand stabilization and policy support for production efficiency [11][12] - **Key Players**: Companies like Wanhua Chemical and Xinjiang Tianye are highlighted for their strong competitive positions and governance [12] Petrochemical Sector - **Oil Price Stability**: Oil prices are expected to remain stable around 63 USD, with a projected range of 55 to 70 USD in 2026 due to balanced supply and demand dynamics [10] - **Investment Recommendations**: Downstream polyester companies are favored for their stronger performance outlook, with specific recommendations for Tongkun and New Fengming [10] Construction Materials - **Market Trends**: The construction materials sector is expected to see steady demand growth, particularly in fiberglass and consumer building materials, with companies like China Jushi and Sanke Tree recommended for their growth potential [20][21] Coal Industry - **Future Trends**: The coal market is expected to tighten due to increased global demand and supply constraints, particularly in East Asia [22][23] - **Investment Opportunities**: High dividend stocks such as China Shenhua and Shanxi Coal are recommended, along with companies involved in new energy initiatives [24] Additional Insights - **Sector-Specific Opportunities**: Various sectors such as fluorochemicals, titanium dioxide, and organic silicon are identified as having potential investment opportunities due to market dynamics and supply constraints [15][16][17] - **Overall Market Sentiment**: The sentiment remains cautiously optimistic, with expectations of gradual recovery and capital inflow across multiple sectors, driven by policy support and macroeconomic factors [1][2][3]

证券研究报告 晨会 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 12 月 07 日 投资要点： 资料来源：聚源，华源证券研究所，截至2025年12月05日 华源晨会精粹 20251207 北交所 五载风劲，掘"稀"向"新"—北交所 2026 年度投资策略：总结 2025 年： "十四五"收官，四秩筑基。成果来看，2025 年作为"十四五"规划收官之年，北 交所市场迎来多重突破，总市值突破 8200 亿元，开户数达 950 万户，日均成交额迈 向 300 亿元，流动性实现质的飞跃。市场"专精特新"特色更加鲜明，国家级"小 巨人"占比达 61%，已培育一批高成长、稀缺性企业，在新能源、机器人、AI 等产 业链构建优质企业矩阵。展望 2026 年："十五五"开年，掘稀向新。站在"十五五" 开局新起点，北交所将围绕"稀缺性"与"新质生产力"双主线深化布局。资金层 面，2025H1 公募基金持仓市值达 224 亿元，QFII、社保基金等中长期资金稳步入场； 后续主动权益+被动资金双轮驱动趋势明确，且 ETF 有望引入数十亿元增量活水， 其发展有望遵循"宽基引领、主题拓展"的路径，未来或将形成指数产品体系；专 精特新指数基金 ...