宏观动态报告 核心 CPI 延续改善、PPI 同比降幅走阔 5 月物价数据解读 2025年6月9日 分析师 张迪 ☎：010-8092-7737 网:zhangdi_yj@chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130524060001 目雷 ☎：010-8092-7780 ☑: lvlei_yj@chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130524080002 www.chinastock.com.cn 证券研究报告 请务必阅读正文最后的中国银河证券股份有限公司免责声明 5 月 CPI 环比由涨转降至-0.2%(前值 0.1%),同比下降 0.1%(前值-0.1%), 过去五年(春节在1月份,下同)的季节性环比均值为-0.3%,其中食品价格 环比下降 0.2%(前值 0.2%)、过去五年环比均值为-1.1%;非食品价格环比 下降 0.2%(前值 0.1%)，过去五年环比均值为 0。核心 CPI 环比由涨转平, 同比涨幅扩大至 0.6%,涨幅比上月扩大 0.1 个百分点。PPI 环比下降 0.4% (前值-0.4%），同比下降 3.3%(前值-2.7%），环比持平、同比降幅走阔 ...

Energy - China's rare earth exports in May reached 5,864.6 tons, an increase from 4,784.8 tons in April, with total exports from January to May amounting to 24,827.0 tons [1] - In May, China imported 36.04 million tons of coal and lignite, down from 37.82 million tons in April [3] Trade Situation - In the first five months of this year, China's goods trade imports and exports grew by 2.5% year-on-year, with trade value with the United States declining by 8.1% [2] - U.S. companies are requesting a reduction in tariffs on imports from Vietnam [2] - Japan is considering reaching a tariff agreement with the U.S. ahead of the G7 summit on June 15 [2] Oil and Gas - The Venezuelan government plans to increase oil prices by 50% [3] - OPEC+ quota increases have not yet led to a surge in production, according to Morgan Stanley [3] - Slovakia's Prime Minister stated that if EU sanctions against Russia harm Slovakia's national interests, the country will not support them [3]

大宗商品展望 证券研究报告 2025.06.08 大宗商品 2025 下半年展望综述：一致 预期后的变局 郭朝辉 分析员 李林惠 分析员 王炙鹿 分析员 SAC 执证编号：S0080513070006 SFC CE Ref：BBU524 chaohui.guo@cicc.com.cn SAC 执证编号：S0080524060004 linhui.li@cicc.com.cn SAC 执证编号：S0080523030003 zhilu.wang@cicc.com.cn 关税冲击风险偏好，外部突变因素驱动商品价格共振 上半年，大宗商品市场频繁发生同涨同跌的共振行情，背后驱动却并非基本面的内生同频，而更多源于意外变量的外部 冲击。我们认为美国关税政策反复是商品市场共同面对的核心变数，从贸易政策不确定性驱动跨市套利交易、提振海外 金属价格，到"对等关税"超预期、商品市场迎来抛售。市场资金的剧烈流动中或已显示，本次美国关税政策对商品市 场风险偏好的冲击并不亚于 2020 年全球疫情和 2022 年俄乌冲突时期，我们认为一致预期的演绎和定价可能已经较为 充分。继特朗普政府在 4 月 23 日传递关税政策缓和信号1，再到 ...

Group 1 - The core focus of the US-Japan tariff negotiations is the trade deficit, with Japan's strong stance against making unprincipled concessions to the US [1] - Japan holds significant leverage in the negotiations due to its substantial holdings of US Treasury bonds, which could impact the US economy if sold off [1] - Japan's proposal includes a comprehensive cooperation plan targeting China in key areas such as rare earths, semiconductors, and liquefied natural gas [3][5] Group 2 - Japan aims to reduce the trade deficit with the US while aligning with US efforts to counter China's technological advancements [3] - The internal divisions within the US negotiation team complicate the discussions, with differing views among key officials [5] - The historical context of US-Japan relations shows a shift from a subordinate relationship to a more balanced negotiation dynamic, with Japan leveraging its economic position [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The energy - chemical sector mainly consists of energy, alcohols, polyolefins, rubber, polyesters, alkalis, and others. For each sector, options strategies and suggestions are provided for selected varieties. The options strategy report for each option variety is compiled based on the analysis of the underlying asset's market, option factor research, and option strategy suggestions [8]. - The overall strategy is to construct option portfolio strategies mainly as sellers, along with spot hedging or covered strategies to enhance returns [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Overview - Various energy - chemical option underlying futures contracts have different price movements, trading volumes, and open interest changes. For example, the latest price of crude oil (SC2507) is 476, with a rise of 8 and a rise - fall rate of 1.71%, trading volume of 10.92 million lots (a decrease of 2.58 million lots), and open interest of 2.11 million lots (an increase of 0.04 million lots) [3]. 3.2 Option Factor - PCR - The PCR indicators (both volume and open interest) of different option varieties are used to describe the strength of the option underlying market and the turning point of the underlying market. For example, the open interest PCR of crude oil options is 1.03, with a change of 0.04 [4]. 3.3 Option Factor - Pressure and Support Levels - From the perspective of the strike prices with the largest open interest of call and put options, the pressure and support levels of different option underlying assets are determined. For example, the pressure point of crude oil is 570, and the support point is 400 [5]. 3.4 Option Factor - Implied Volatility - The implied volatility of different option varieties shows different characteristics. For example, the at - the - money implied volatility of crude oil is 27.83%, the weighted implied volatility is 31.16% (a decrease of 1.21%), and the historical average is 17.96% [6]. 3.5 Strategy and Suggestions for Different Option Varieties 3.5.1 Energy - related Options - **Crude Oil**: In terms of fundamentals, U.S. and European inventories have changed. The market has shown a pattern of rising and then falling and then rising again. Option strategies include constructing a short - neutral call + put option combination strategy for volatility, and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [7]. - **LPG**: The international LPG market price center has moved down, and the domestic supply and inventory situation has changed. The market has shown a weak and bearish trend. Option strategies include constructing a short - bearish call + put option combination strategy for volatility, and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [9]. 3.5.2 Alcohol - related Options - **Methanol**: Port inventory has increased, and the market has shown a weak and bearish rebound trend. Option strategies include constructing a short - neutral call + put option combination strategy for volatility, and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [9]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The port spot price center has moved down, and inventory has increased. The market has shown a pattern of rising and then falling. Option strategies include constructing a short - volatility strategy for volatility, and a long + put + short - call option strategy for spot hedging [10]. 3.5.3 Polyolefin - related Options - **Polypropylene**: New production capacity has been put into operation, and the market has shown a bearish trend. Option strategies include constructing a bear - spread put option combination strategy for direction, and a long + put + short - call option strategy for spot hedging [10]. 3.5.4 Rubber - related Options - **Natural Rubber**: Inventory in Qingdao has decreased. The market has shown a pattern of falling and then rising and then falling again. Option strategies include constructing a bear - spread put option combination strategy for direction, and a short - bearish call + put option combination strategy for volatility [11]. 3.5.5 Polyester - related Options - **PTA**: The start - up rate and production volume have changed, and inventory has decreased. The market has shown a pattern of rising and then falling. Option strategies include constructing a short - neutral call + put option combination strategy for volatility [12]. 3.5.6 Alkali - related Options - **Caustic Soda**: Supply pressure is high, and the market has shown a bearish trend. Option strategies include constructing a bear - spread put option combination strategy for direction, a short - bearish strangle option combination strategy for volatility, and a long + short - call option strategy for spot covered hedging [13]. - **Soda Ash**: Production and capacity utilization have changed, and inventory has increased slightly. The market has shown a weak and bearish trend. Option strategies include constructing a bear - spread put option combination strategy for direction, a short - bearish call + put option combination strategy for volatility, and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [13]. 3.5.7 Urea Options - Supply pressure is large, and demand may weaken. The market has shown an inverted "V" pattern. Option strategies include constructing a bear - spread put option combination strategy for direction, a short - bearish call + put option combination strategy for volatility, and a long + put + short - call option strategy for spot hedging [14].

Core Viewpoint - Japan is leveraging a cooperation proposal related to China in exchange for concessions on tariffs during the ongoing US-Japan trade negotiations, which have been stalled since the implementation of strict tariff policies by the Trump administration [1][3]. Group 1: Trade Negotiations - Japan's chief trade negotiator, Akizawa Ryo, is participating in the fifth round of tariff negotiations with the US, aiming to address the approximately $60 billion trade deficit between the two countries [1]. - The US has maintained a hardline stance on tariffs, particularly in the automotive and steel sectors, insisting on measures to eliminate the trade deficit [1][3]. - Japan's willingness to compromise has shifted due to changing international circumstances, indicating a more assertive negotiation strategy [1][3]. Group 2: Cooperation Proposals - Japan's cooperation proposal includes leveraging its advantages in rare earth processing and recycling to assist the US in utilizing globally sourced rare earth materials, as well as exploring collaboration in graphite and gallium [1]. - In the semiconductor sector, Japan plans to purchase billions of dollars' worth of semiconductor products from US companies like Nvidia and is considering assistance in producing materials needed for chip manufacturing [1][3]. Group 3: Energy and Shipbuilding - Japan is considering increasing imports of US liquefied natural gas and has proposed support for new projects in Alaska and increased production in Louisiana and Texas [3]. - In shipbuilding, Japan aims to collaborate with the US to build icebreakers, taking into account the influence of China [3]. Group 4: Internal US Dynamics - The US negotiation team is experiencing significant internal divisions, with differing views among key officials, complicating the negotiation process for Japan [3]. - The lack of coordination and information sharing among US officials has led to repeated discussions and delays in the negotiation process [3]. Group 5: Japan's Strategic Position - Japan holds significant leverage with its holdings of US Treasury bonds, and any large-scale sell-off could exert substantial pressure on the US economy [5]. - The dynamics of US-China relations have provided Japan with insights and confidence to adopt a firmer negotiating stance [5]. Group 6: International Implications - The outcome of the US-Japan trade negotiations will not only impact bilateral economic relations but also have broader implications for regional and global economic structures [5][7]. - Japan's strategy must consider the potential backlash from China if its cooperation proposals adversely affect Chinese interests, highlighting the risks involved in the negotiations [5][7].

智通财经APP获悉，中金公司发布研报称，展望下半年，国内工业金属需求在建筑旺季过后，增长动能 或受到基建空间不足、光伏抢装逐步收尾、汽车家电等需求受以旧换新提振效率下降等方面的压力；海 外能源需求或也将面临欧美经济增长放缓和贸易摩擦下运输燃料和油品终端需求承压等不利局面。预计 今年处于供应过剩格局的商品品种数量增加。目前看，主要品种中或仅国内铝市场和美国天然气市场有 望保持短缺格局。在多数过剩格局下，该行认为价格超跌后的成本反馈和溢价重估可能成为下半年商品 市场面临的变局之二。 中金公司主要观点如下： 关税冲击风险偏好，外部突变因素驱动商品价格共振 上半年，大宗商品市场频繁发生同涨同跌的共振行情，背后驱动却并非基本面的内生同频，而更多源于 意外变量的外部冲击。该行认为美国关税政策反复是商品市场共同面对的核心变数，从贸易政策不确定 性驱动跨市套利交易、提振海外金属价格，到"对等关税"超预期、商品市场迎来抛售。 相较之下，该行认为铁矿石和国内生猪现货的溢价可能难以保持，或继续向成本探底。而对于已经跌破 或接近成本的农产品，随着美国新季种植面积调减，该行认为大豆成本折价或有望收窄，但玉米价格可 能继续跌至成本线下方 ...

Core Insights - The 2025 Global Environment and Sustainable Development Conference was held at the newly completed Fang Hall Water Institute, attracting over 400 representatives from 36 countries and regions to discuss sustainable development solutions [1][2] - The conference emphasized sustainable development as a key to addressing global environmental and development challenges, focusing on issues like climate crisis, biodiversity loss, and green transformation [1] Group 1: Conference Highlights - The conference featured special reports from scholars and decision-makers from Australia and Ethiopia on topics such as net-zero carbon building ecology and financing for green power production [2] - Four parallel forums were held at the Fang Hall Water Institute, covering sustainable energy, urban renewal, environmental resource utilization, and green finance, with multiple keynote speeches and roundtable discussions [2] Group 2: Future Prospects - The Long Triangle Ecological Green Integration Development Demonstration Zone plans to host more high-profile domestic and international conferences, exhibitions, and forums, enhancing regional development momentum and competitiveness [2] - The conference is seen as a platform for cross-cultural cooperation and innovation, aiming to inspire the next generation of environmental leaders and promote waste reuse for a cleaner future [1][2]

Group 1 - China's Spallation Neutron Source (CSNS) has achieved an international breakthrough with the successful acceptance of the first compact P-band high-power metamaterial traveling wave tube, indicating significant advancements in key technologies [2] - The newly developed P-band high-power metamaterial traveling wave tube has broad application prospects in large scientific devices, medical fields, and other industrial sectors [2] Group 2 - China's pumped storage capacity has ranked first in the world for nine consecutive years, with the Hunan Pingjiang pumped storage power station's key control project successfully completed, laying the foundation for water storage [5] - The Pingjiang pumped storage power station has a total installed capacity of 1.4 million kilowatts and is expected to provide 1.09 billion kilowatt-hours of clean energy annually [5] Group 3 - The installation of the center processing platform for the Kenli 10-2 oilfield group has successfully completed offshore floating installation, setting a record for platform size and weight in the Bohai Sea region [8] - This achievement is expected to enhance oil reserves and production in China's largest crude oil production base [8] Group 4 - The construction of the Xinjiang Qitai 110-meter diameter radio telescope has reached a significant milestone with the completion of the main civil engineering work, transitioning to equipment installation and system debugging [11] - Once completed, this telescope will be the largest and most precise fully movable radio telescope of its kind in the world [11]

点击小程序查看报告原文 Abstract 摘要 关税冲击风险偏好，外部突变因素驱动商品价格共振 关税冲击风险偏好，外部突变因素驱动商品价格共振 上半年，大宗商品市场频繁发生同涨同跌的共振行情，背后驱动却并非基本面的内生同频，而更多源于意外变量的外部冲击。我们认为美国关税政策反复 是商品市场共同面对的核心变数，从贸易政策不确定性驱动跨市套利交易、提振海外金属价格，到"对等关税"超预期、商品市场迎来抛售。市场资金的剧 烈流动中或已显示，本次美国关税政策对商品市场风险偏好的冲击并不亚于2020年全球疫情和2022年俄乌冲突时期，我们认为一致预期的演绎和定价可能 已经较为充分。继特朗普政府在4月23日传递关税政策缓和信号[1]，再到5月12日中美日内瓦经贸会谈联合声明发布[2]，关税不确定性似乎初步见顶，全 球经济衰退担忧缓和，商品价格和市场持仓的回补或均显示一致预期的修正进程已经开始。 一致预期后的变局可 能来自 于商品基本面的易变因素 展望下半年，贸易政策和地缘局势对商品市场的影响或将从预期到现实，而这本身也是不确定性从检验到修正的过程，不同商品基本面所面临的易变因素 可能带来预期差机会，成为一致预期后的市场变局 ...