Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The short - term, medium - term, and intraday views of Shanghai rubber (RU) 2605 are all "oscillating", with an overall reference view of "oscillating and strengthening". The short - term, medium - term, and intraday views of synthetic rubber (BR) 2605 are all "oscillating and strengthening" [1]. - Due to the escalation of the US - Iran conflict and the rising geopolitical risks in the Middle East, international crude oil futures prices remain strong, which boosts domestic energy and chemical commodity futures prices. The rising crude oil prices drive the increase of synthetic rubber, indirectly boosting the stabilization and rebound of Shanghai rubber futures. It is expected that on Monday, Shanghai rubber and synthetic rubber futures will maintain an oscillating and strengthening trend [5][7]. Summary by Related Catalogs Shanghai Rubber (RU) - **Viewpoints**: Short - term: oscillating; Medium - term: oscillating; Intraday: oscillating and strengthening; Overall reference: oscillating and strengthening [1][5]. - **Core Logic**: The escalation of the US - Iran conflict and the rising geopolitical risks in the Middle East lead to the strong performance of international crude oil futures prices, which boosts domestic energy and chemical commodity futures prices. The rising crude oil prices drive the increase of synthetic rubber, indirectly boosting the stabilization and rebound of Shanghai rubber futures. The Shanghai rubber futures 2605 contract showed an oscillating and strengthening trend in the night session last Friday, and it is expected to maintain this trend on Monday [5]. Synthetic Rubber (BR) - **Viewpoints**: Short - term: oscillating and strengthening; Medium - term: oscillating and strengthening; Intraday: oscillating and strengthening; Overall reference: oscillating and strengthening [1][7]. - **Core Logic**: The escalation of the US - Iran conflict and the rising geopolitical risks in the Middle East lead to the strong performance of international crude oil futures prices, which boosts domestic energy and chemical commodity futures prices. The rising crude oil prices drive the increase of synthetic rubber. The synthetic rubber futures maintained an oscillating upward trend in the night session last Friday, and it is expected to maintain an oscillating and strengthening trend on Monday [7].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas, concerns about the unending conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran have pushed up international oil prices, increasing global inflation expectations, boosting the demand for the US dollar, and causing the US dollar index and US Treasury yields to surge, leading to a significant decline in global risk appetite. Domestically, China's economy rebounded unexpectedly from January to February, exports far exceeded expectations, and inflation continued to recover, with the overall economic and inflation situation better than expected. The government work report set the main development targets and fiscal and monetary policies for 2026, with the overall targets and policy intensity lower than in 2025. The recent market trading logic mainly focuses on the Middle East geopolitical risks and the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision. In the short term, with the domestic economy performing better than expected, but under the intensifying geopolitical shocks and the hawkish stance of the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, the stock index will fluctuate weakly in the short term. Attention should be paid to the changes in the Middle East geopolitical situation, the implementation of policies after the Two Sessions, and the changes in market sentiment [3][4]. - The overall performance of different asset classes is as follows: the stock index will fluctuate weakly in the short term, and short - term cautious observation is recommended; government bonds will fluctuate in the short term, and cautious observation is recommended; in the commodity sector, black metals will rebound in the short - term and short - term cautious observation is recommended; non - ferrous metals will fluctuate weakly in the short term, and short - term cautious observation is recommended; energy and chemical products will be strong in the short term, and cautious long - position is recommended; precious metals will fluctuate weakly in the short term, and short - term cautious observation is recommended [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro and Financial - Overseas, the market's concerns about the unending conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran have pushed up international oil prices, increasing global inflation expectations, boosting the demand for the US dollar, and causing the US dollar index and US Treasury yields to surge, leading to a significant decline in global risk appetite. Domestically, China's economy rebounded unexpectedly from January to February, exports far exceeded expectations, and inflation continued to recover, with the overall economic and inflation situation better than expected. The government work report set the main development targets and fiscal and monetary policies for 2026, with the overall targets and policy intensity lower than in 2025. The recent market trading logic mainly focuses on the Middle East geopolitical risks and the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision. In the short term, with the domestic economy performing better than expected, but under the intensifying geopolitical shocks and the hawkish stance of the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, the stock index will fluctuate weakly in the short term. Attention should be paid to the changes in the Middle East geopolitical situation, the implementation of policies after the Two Sessions, and the changes in market sentiment [3][4]. 3.2 Stock Index - Affected by sectors such as communication services, AI, and software development, the domestic stock market declined significantly. Fundamentally, China's economy rebounded unexpectedly from January to February, exports far exceeded expectations, and inflation continued to recover, with the overall economic and inflation situation better than expected. The government work report set the main development targets and fiscal and monetary policies for 2026, with the overall targets and policy intensity lower than in 2025. The recent market trading logic mainly focuses on the Middle East geopolitical risks and the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision. In the short term, with the domestic economy performing better than expected, but under the intensifying geopolitical shocks and the hawkish stance of the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, the stock index will fluctuate weakly in the short term. Attention should be paid to the changes in the Middle East geopolitical situation, the implementation of policies after the Two Sessions, and the changes in market sentiment. In terms of operation, short - term cautious observation is recommended [4]. 3.3 Precious Metals - The precious metals market fell overall on the night of last Friday. The main contract of Shanghai gold closed at 1016.12 yuan/gram, a decrease of 1.22%; the main contract of Shanghai silver closed at 17139 yuan/kg, a decrease of 1.77%. Affected by the sharp rise in international energy prices, the market is worried that inflation will cause global central banks to slow down the pace of interest rate cuts, and the US dollar index and US Treasury yields have strengthened significantly, causing precious metals to continue to weaken. Spot gold fell for the eighth consecutive trading day, the longest losing streak since October 2023. The decline intensified during the US session, with an intraday decline of more than $150, hitting a new low in more than a month, and finally closing down 3.45% at $4491.15 per ounce; spot silver fell below the $68 mark, finally closing down 7.04% at $67.79 per ounce. Precious metals will fluctuate weakly in the short term. In terms of operation, short - term cautious observation is recommended [5]. 3.4 Black Metals - **Steel**: On Friday, the domestic steel spot market declined slightly, and the night session rebounded slightly affected by the rebound in coking coal prices; market transactions continued to be at a low level. Fundamentally, it is still weak. Although steel inventories have peaked and declined, the growth rate of the apparent consumption of the five major varieties has slowed down. In terms of supply, after the important meeting ended, the output of the five major varieties of steel this week increased by 18850 tons month - on - month, and the iron ore output also increased by nearly 6900 tons. Recently, the cost and macro logic of the steel market dominate. It is recommended to continue to treat it with an interval oscillation idea, and pay attention to the risk of a sharp rise and fall [6][7]. - **Iron Ore**: On Friday, the spot and futures prices of iron ore rebounded slightly. In terms of demand, the daily average pig iron output of commercial and residential blast furnaces increased by 6900 tons month - on - month, and the proportion of profitable steel mills is still around 42%, so the demand for iron ore is still resilient. In terms of supply, the global iron ore arrival volume last week continued to decline by 3.8 million tons month - on - month, but the shipping volume increased. In the short term, the iron ore supply is still in the off - season. However, the futures price has reflected the expectation of the recent stage - by - stage dislocation of supply and demand, and the short - term upward space of the iron ore price may be limited. Attention should be paid to the risk of a sharp rise and fall [7]. - **Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron**: On Friday, the spot and futures prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese rebounded significantly. This rebound is mainly affected by the rise in crude oil prices and the energy substitution logic and will continue in the short term. Fundamentally, the manganese ore spot is still firm. The semi - carbonate quotation at Tianjin Port is 40 - 40.5 yuan/ton degree, the South African high - iron index quotation is 33 - 35 yuan/ton degree, the Gabon quotation is 45 yuan/ton degree and above, the South32 Australian block quotation is 44 yuan/ton degree, and the cml Australian block is 46 yuan/ton degree. In terms of supply, according to Mysteel statistics of 187 independent silicon manganese enterprises in the country, the national capacity utilization rate is 35.7%, an increase of 0.08% from last week; the daily average output is 27980 tons/day, a decrease of 225 tons. At present, the start - up situation in the north is relatively stable, and factories are gradually hedging, with a good profit margin. The cash - inclusive ex - factory price of 72 - grade silicon iron in the main production areas of silicon iron is 5550 - 5700 yuan/ton, and the price of 75 - grade silicon iron is reported at 6100 yuan/ton. Downstream steel mills have begun to implement procurement and tendering plans one after another after the Spring Festival, and the resumption progress of the trader market is also steadily increasing. It is recommended to treat the futures prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese with an idea of oscillation and strength [8]. 3.5 Non - ferrous and New Energy - **Copper**: Macroscopically, China's economic data from January to February was slightly better than expected, especially the growth rate of fixed - asset investment turned positive, but the real estate performance was still weak, and the decline rates of new construction area, construction area, and completion area all expanded, maintaining double - digit negative growth; the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision in March kept the interest rate unchanged, and Powell's statement was hawkish, causing the market risk appetite to decline. The dynamic changes in the Federal Reserve's views will be affected by the US employment, inflation, and the Middle East situation. The core contradiction in the fundamentals is still at the mine end. It is a consensus in the market that copper mines are tight, but the probability of extreme shortage is not high; although the long - term and spot TC remain at a low level, the by - product revenues such as sulfuric acid and precious metals make up for the smelting profit. Coupled with the abundant supply of blister copper and the increasing import of scrap copper ingots, the growth rate of refined copper output is at a high level. The high copper price restrains downstream purchases, and the domestic and foreign inventories continue to accumulate. The explicit inventory of the three major exchanges is close to 1.29 million tons, reaching a record high [9]. - **Aluminum**: On Friday, the non - ferrous sector first bottomed out and then rebounded, with a relatively large rebound in the morning of the white session but a decline in the afternoon. From the import data, the domestic primary aluminum import remains at a high level; the scrap aluminum import has decreased slightly, and the overseas scrap aluminum supply is relatively tight. At present, the domestic aluminum supply is rigid and remains at a high level, with a 3% year - on - year increase in output from January to February, and the previously shut - down production capacity will resume production later, so the supply pressure still exists. Against the background that the demand side cannot bear it, the inventory continues to accumulate and is currently close to 1.36 million tons, reaching a new high in recent years. Overseas, due to the disturbance of the Middle East situation, the supply is tight, and the internal and external price difference is large [10]. - **Zinc**: The domestic zinc mines are mainly distributed in the south. With the resumption of work and production, the zinc ore processing fee in the southern region has rebounded from 1300 yuan/metal ton to 1500 yuan/metal ton, and the zinc ore processing fee in the northern region remains at 1500 yuan/metal ton. The imported ore TC has dropped from $30/dry ton to $20/dry ton. The domestic smelting capacity is still expanding, and the by - product revenue makes up for the loss, so the domestic smelting output remains at a relatively high level. Overseas smelters cut production in 2025, but will resume production in 2026, and the output will increase. The demand side is not optimistic. Real estate, infrastructure, transportation, and emerging fields such as photovoltaics are difficult to bring obvious boost to photovoltaic demand and may even decline. After the seasonal inventory accumulation of domestic zinc ingots, it has turned to decline, reaching 229,000 tons, a month - on - month decline of 7200 tons, only slightly lower than in 2022; the LME zinc inventory has increased to nearly 120,000 tons, which has increased significantly compared with the previous period [11]. - **Lead**: The production of primary lead and secondary lead has increased seasonally. The weekly output of primary lead is 56,100 tons, at the highest level in recent years; the growth rate of secondary lead is also at a high level in recent years, and the supply pressure still exists. On the demand side, the peak season has passed and it is gradually entering the off - season, and the trade - in policy has overdrawn the later demand. Since 2025, the LME lead inventory has continued to remain at a high level. Since the beginning of the year, the social inventory of primary lead has continued to accumulate, with a relatively high accumulation speed and amplitude. As of March 19, the inventory reached 72,600 tons, a month - on - month decline of 7500 tons, lower than in 2022 but higher than in 2023 - 2025. Although the LME lead inventory has not fluctuated much recently, it is still at the highest level in the same period in recent years, reaching 284,100 tons [12]. - **Nickel**: The mine end is still the current core contradiction point. The RKAB quota in Indonesia in 2026 has dropped significantly to 260 million wet tons, and there is still room for improvement later, but the decline compared with 2025 is basically a foregone conclusion. Since the Indonesian Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources requires mining enterprises to use one - quarter of the "old quota" in the first quarter, mining enterprises will maintain normal production in the first quarter without a shortage. In addition, the Middle East conflict has led to a shortage of sulfur in Indonesia, affecting the production of MHP. In addition, the previous tailings accident has also led to enterprise production cuts, and there is a risk of a decline in MHP supply. There is still support below the nickel price, but the upward space is limited by the high domestic and foreign inventories [12]. - **Tin**: On the supply side, 13,501 tons of tin ore were imported from Myanmar in the first two months, a year - on - year increase of 175%, and the monthly average level is equivalent to that in November and December last year. As the pumping of tin mines in the Wa State of Myanmar accelerates, it is expected that the import volume will still have room for further growth; the import volume of tin ore from outside Myanmar is 21,444 tons, with a year - on - year growth rate of up to 57%, reflecting that the sources of tin ore imports in China are more diversified; although the operating rate has dropped slightly by 0.42%, it is still at a high level in the same period in recent years; due to the continuous closure of the import window, 3269 tons of tin ingots were imported from January to February, a year - on - year decrease of 27%. On the demand side, the global semiconductor sales in January 2026 increased by 46% year - on - year, and the growth rate further expanded, but the performance of other traditional and emerging industries was poor. The automobile production from January to February decreased by 9.9% year - on - year, the photovoltaic module production decreased by 26% year - on - year, and the household appliance production plan continued to decline. The industry is significantly differentiated, and the semiconductor alone cannot support the overall demand, which is poor. As the tin price has dropped significantly, downstream enterprises have made concentrated purchases at low prices, and the social inventory of tin ingots has decreased by 2770 tons to 11,035 tons; the LME inventory has continued to increase, reaching 8920 tons, a month - on - month increase of 145 tons. In summary, it has fallen to the previous important support level and may stabilize and rebound in the short term. Considering that the risk appetite is still weak, be cautious when going long [13]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The latest weekly output of lithium carbonate is 24,200 tons, a new high, with a month - on - month increase of 3.2%. The social inventory of lithium carbonate is 98,873 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 89 tons. Among them, the inventories of smelters, downstream, and others have increased by 316, 458, and decreased by 860 tons respectively month - on - month. The smelters and downstream have slightly accumulated inventory, and the traders have reduced inventory. The latest warehouse receipt inventory of lithium carbonate is 34,318 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2085 tons, and the number of warehouse receipts is low. The old warehouse receipts will be concentratedly cancelled at the end of this month. The supply and demand of lithium carbonate are both prosperous. The continuous reduction of social inventory of lithium carbonate and the low inventory of smelters continue the strong reality. The Middle East geopolitical conflict has led to the strengthening of the US dollar, suppressing commodity prices, but the high oil price itself is beneficial to the long - term demand for new energy. It will fluctuate weakly in the short term. Observe cautiously and pay attention to the downstream's acceptance at low prices and the downstream inventory situation [14]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The latest weekly output is 78,400 tons, a week - on - week increase of 3745 tons (+5.0%). The weekly outputs of Sichuan, Yunnan, Xinjiang, Inner Mongolia, and Gansu are 280, 3584, 50,988, 8239, and 7140 tons respectively, and the output in Xinjiang has increased slightly. The total number of open furnaces is 209, a week - on - week increase of 1, and the furnace opening rate is 26%. Among them, there is one new open furnace in Xinjiang and one shut - down furnace in Inner Mongolia. The latest social inventory of industrial silicon is 553,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1000 tons, and the social inventory is stable at a high level. The warehouse receipt inventory is 21,668, a week - on - week decrease of 308, and the number of warehouse receipts continues to be low. Under the situation

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Last week, the main contract price of Shanghai zinc futures broke through support and declined. Macroeconomic factors, such as the unexpected rebound of the US PPI in February, the hawkish stance of Powell after the Fed's interest - rate meeting, and the escalating US - Iran conflict, put pressure on market sentiment. Domestically, the economic data from January to February was positive, and there was an expectation of loose monetary policy. Fundamentally, LME zinc inventory increased, weakening the support from the de - stocking logic. European smelters did not cut production despite the rising natural gas prices. In China, raw materials were in short supply but not critically scarce, and smelter production was stable with an increasing trend. On the demand side, the operating rates of galvanizing, alloy, and zinc oxide enterprises showed different degrees of improvement, but terminal orders were limited. However, the decline in zinc prices led to more price - fixing by downstream buyers, and inventory showed a turning point. Overall, macro factors dominate the zinc price trend. The continuous fermentation of the Middle - East situation has increased concerns about energy and the supply chain, and the inflation expectation has suppressed the expectation of interest - rate cuts while increasing the pressure of economic downturn. The fundamental support is weak, and in the short term, it is expected that zinc prices will remain under pressure and operate weakly [3][10][11] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Trading Data - The price of SHFE zinc decreased from 24,140 yuan/ton on March 13th to 22,935 yuan/ton on March 20th, a decline of 1205 yuan/ton. The price of LME zinc dropped from 3293.5 dollars/ton to 3056 dollars/ton, a decrease of 237.5 dollars/ton. The Shanghai - London ratio rose from 7.33 to 7.50. The inventory of SHFE increased by 39,027 tons to 126,052 tons, and the LME inventory increased by 19,775 tons to 117,675 tons. The social inventory decreased by 0.27 million tons to 26.61 million tons. The spot premium increased by 30 yuan/ton to - 90 yuan/ton [4] 2. Market Review - The main contract of Shanghai zinc, ZN2605, broke through support and declined last week. The Fed's hawkish signal and the deterioration of the Middle - East situation led to a panic in the market, and the zinc price in the non - ferrous metals sector had a large decline. With the easing of market sentiment on Friday, the zinc price stabilized and rebounded weakly. The weekly decline of Shanghai zinc was 5.17%, and that of LME zinc was 7.21%. In the spot market, as the zinc price fell, downstream buyers increased price - fixing, and the spot discount narrowed with slightly improved trading volume [5][6] 3. Industry News - On March 20, 2026, the domestic zinc concentrate processing fee remained flat at 1550 yuan/metal ton, and the imported ore processing fee decreased by 6.02 dollars/dry ton to 5.23 dollars/dry ton. The 100,000 - ton project of Guizhou Duyun Daliang Zinc Mine was put into production. From January to February 2026, the cumulative import volume of zinc concentrate increased by 17.54% year - on - year to 100.88 million tons. The cumulative import volume of refined zinc decreased by 61% year - on - year to 28,631 tons, and the cumulative export volume increased by 12.78% year - on - year to 5885 tons. The cumulative export volume of galvanized sheets decreased by 0.14% year - on - year to 209.42 million tons, and the cumulative export volume of die - casting zinc alloy increased by 0.9% year - on - year to 689.33 tons [12] 4. Related Charts - The report provides multiple charts, including the price trend charts of Shanghai and LME zinc, the internal and external price ratio chart, the spot premium chart, the LME premium chart, the inventory charts of SHFE, LME, bonded areas, and social inventory, the zinc ore processing fee chart, the zinc ore import profit and loss chart, the domestic refined zinc production chart, the smelter profit chart, the refined zinc net import chart, and the downstream primary enterprise operating rate chart [13][17][21]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of ongoing geopolitical conflicts, particularly in the Middle East, on various commodities and financial markets, highlighting the contrasting performance of oil and gold prices amid these tensions [1][2]. Group 1: Oil Market - Oil prices surged above $112 per barrel, increasing over 8% for the week, driven by U.S. military actions in the Middle East and threats to block the Strait of Hormuz [1][2]. - The market anticipates that oil prices will remain high in the short term due to geopolitical risk premiums, despite the absence of extreme escalations like the complete destruction of oil fields or permanent blockades [2][13]. Group 2: Precious Metals - Gold experienced a significant sell-off, dropping over 10% for the week and falling below $4500, marking the largest weekly decline since 1983, as rising oil prices and inflation expectations pressured the metal [1][2]. - The Federal Reserve's hawkish signals regarding interest rates and inflation have negatively impacted precious metals, although long-term trends for gold remain upward due to factors like geopolitical risks and diversification of central bank reserves [2][19]. Group 3: Stock Indices - U.S. stock indices declined, with a market turnover of 2.3 trillion yuan, as the market shifts from a broad rally to a focus on companies with strong earnings [3][10]. - The financing balance decreased by 4.286 billion yuan, indicating a cautious market sentiment influenced by geopolitical risks [3][10]. Group 4: Industry News - Elon Musk plans to procure $2.9 billion worth of photovoltaic equipment from China to meet the growing electricity demand from AI, which may reshape the Chinese solar industry by shifting focus from end products to equipment and technology [8].

Group 1: Report Overview - Report title: "Stock Index Futures: Many Variables, Continued Consolidation" [2] - Report date: March 23, 2026 [1] - Analyst: Mao Lei [3] Group 2: Market Review and Outlook - Last week, the market continued to adjust. CSI 500 and CSI 1000 had the largest declines, while SSE 50 and SSE 300 had slightly narrower declines. The ChiNext Index hit a new high in the current rebound last Friday [3]. - Only the communication and banking sectors rose. The sectors with smaller declines were mainly large-cap stocks and some dividend varieties. Food and beverage, public utilities, and coal had the smallest declines, while non-ferrous metals, basic chemicals, and steel had the largest declines [3]. - Investors are increasingly worried that the conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran will turn into a long-lasting war, and re-inflation concerns continue. The euro interest rate swap market has priced in two 25-basis-point interest rate hikes by the European Central Bank in 2026 [3]. - The global financial market has adjusted significantly. US stocks have fallen for four consecutive weeks, the longest losing streak in a year. The European and American bond markets have been hit hard. Gold prices have recorded the largest single-week decline since 1983 due to factors such as liquidity demand [3]. - In the later stage, the core driver is still the situation in the Middle East. Although global risk assets have adjusted recently, funds are still in a wait-and-see state without panic. If the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked, oil transportation will be hindered, and the inflationary pressure caused by rising oil prices may further disrupt the market. Currently, the yields of 2-year and 5-year US Treasury bonds have risen by 30 basis points, a milder increase compared to the Russia-Ukraine conflict. On the other hand, if the situation develops in a direction conducive to lower oil prices, the market may rebound significantly. Due to the high dependence of the market on the situation, cautious trading is recommended [4]. - Factors to watch: the situation in the Middle East, the Fed's policy expectations, etc. [5] Group 3: Strategy Recommendations - Short-term strategy: The intraday trading frequency can refer to the 1-minute and 5-minute K-line charts. The stop-loss and take-profit levels for IF, IH, IC, and IM can be set at 93 points/70 points, 74 points/44 points, 205 points/246 points, and 246 points/205 points respectively [6]. - Trend strategy: Adopt an interval approach. It is expected that the core operating range of the IF2604 main contract is between 4427 and 4631 points; the IH2604 main contract is between 2809 and 2939 points; the IC2604 main contract is between 7389 and 7966 points; and the IM2604 main contract is between 7457 and 8037 points [6]. - Cross-variety strategy: Hold the strategy of going long on IF (or IH) and shorting IC (or IM) [6] Group 4: Spot Market Review - US stocks: Last week, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 2.11%, the S&P 500 Index fell 1.9%, and the Nasdaq Composite Index fell 2.07% [11]. - European stocks: The UK's FTSE 100 Index fell 3.34%, Germany's DAX Index fell 4.55%, and France's CAC 40 Index fell 3.11% [11]. - Asia-Pacific markets: Japan's Nikkei 225 Index fell 0.83%, and Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index fell 0.74% [11]. - Other markets: The Australian S&P/ASX 200 Index fell 2.19%, the Singapore Straits Times Index rose 2.20%, Russia's RTS Index remained unchanged, Brazil's BOVESPA Index fell 0.81%, and Taiwan's Weighted Index rose 0.43% [11]. Group 5: Stock Index Futures Market Review - Last week, the IC main contract of stock index futures had the largest decline and the largest amplitude [15]. - The trading volume of stock index futures decreased, while the open interest increased [15]. Group 6: Index Valuation Tracking - As of March 13, the price-to-earnings ratio (TTM) of the Shanghai Composite Index was 17.1 times, the S&P 300 Index was 14.23 times, the SSE 50 Index was 11.5 times, the CSI 500 Index was 37.53 times, and the CSI 1000 Index was 50.77 times [16][18] Group 7: Market Capital Flow Review - The margin trading balance of the two markets and the share of newly established equity funds are presented in the report [18]. - Last week, the capital interest rate remained flat, and the central bank had a net injection [19]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views of the Report - In the Treasury bond futures market, last week, each maturity of bond futures showed differentiation. The 30 - year main contract fell 0.35%, while the 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year main contracts rose 0.03%, 0.02%, and 0.05% respectively. The market risk preference weakened, activating the hedging attribute of bond futures. The downward trend of Treasury bond futures is not easy to reverse when the long - term bull market logic of the stock market remains unchanged and the coupon income of Treasury bonds is not very attractive. Only when the expected return of equity or risk assets declines marginally, the short - term hedging trading attribute of the bond market is more obvious [5]. - In the commodity CTA market, due to the expected non - short - term end of the Iranian regional conflict, the prices of upstream and downstream varieties in the energy and chemical industry chain continued to rise last week. The sudden increase in inflation expectations reduced the market's expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut this year, and precious metals were among the varieties with relatively large declines. Going long on volatility still has a certain winning rate, and in the commodity bull market, going long on volatility can be an optimal strategy after unexpected events. The returns of spot basis - related factors and trading volume and position ranking factors have recovered, and the warehouse receipt factors have a slight increase. However, the long - term returns of fundamental - logic - driven factors are generally mediocre, and continuous observation is needed [11][13]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Treasury Bond Futures Quantitative Strategy 3.1.1 Market Review - Last week, each maturity of bond futures showed differentiation. The 30 - year main contract fell 0.35%, the 10 - year main contract rose 0.03%, the 5 - year main contract rose 0.02%, and the 2 - year main contract rose 0.05%. The basis of each variety also showed differentiation. The CTD bond of the 10 - year bond was 250025, and the basis on the 20th was about - 0.02 yuan, lower than the historical average; the CTD bond of the 30 - year bond was 210014, and the basis on the 20th was 0.19 yuan, also lower than the historical average [5]. 3.1.2 Quantitative Strategy Performance - For the 10 - year Treasury bond, from 2021/01/01 to the present, the annualized return, Sharpe ratio, and maximum drawdown of the portfolio under single - leverage are 2.71%, 1.27, and 2.04% respectively. Since the release of the report (2025/11/01 to the present), the annualized return, Sharpe ratio, and maximum drawdown of the portfolio under single - leverage are 2.62%, 1.61, and 0.67% respectively [5]. - The unilateral strategy is constructed based on factors such as basis, intraday technical indicators, intraday volume - price, high - frequency capital flow, member positions, and risk assets. The signals are generated by equal - weighting within each factor category and then averaging, with the sign of the average as the long - short signal. The strategy uses the VWAP of the first ten minutes of the next - day's opening as the trading price and buys with single - leverage [9]. 3.2 Commodity CTA Factor and Strategy Performance 3.2.1 Commodity Factor Performance - Due to the expected non - short - term end of the Iranian regional conflict, the prices of upstream and downstream varieties in the energy and chemical industry chain continued to rise last week. The sudden increase in inflation expectations reduced the market's expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut this year, and precious metals were among the varieties with relatively large declines. Going long on volatility still has a certain winning rate, and in the commodity bull market, going long on volatility can be an optimal strategy after unexpected events. The returns of spot basis - related factors and trading volume and position ranking factors have recovered, with the former having an average increase of over 1%, and the warehouse receipt factors have a slight increase. However, the long - term returns of fundamental - logic - driven factors are generally mediocre, and continuous observation is needed [11][13]. 3.2.2 Tracking Strategy Performance - CWFT strategy: Annualized return is 9.5%, Sharpe ratio is 1.63, Calmar ratio is 1.07, maximum drawdown is - 8.81%, recent one - week return is 0.28%, and year - to - date return is 3.06% [12]. - C_frontnext & Short Trend strategy: Annualized return is 11.4%, Sharpe ratio is 1.74, Calmar ratio is 1.70, maximum drawdown is - 6.72%, recent one - week return is - 1.17%, and year - to - date return is 2.64% [12]. - Long CWFT & Short CWFT strategy: Annualized return is 12.8%, Sharpe ratio is 1.43, Calmar ratio is 0.98, maximum drawdown is - 13.07%, recent one - week return is - 0.89%, and year - to - date return is 6.45% [12]. - CS XGBoost strategy: Annualized return is 4.9%, Sharpe ratio is 0.79, Calmar ratio is 0.23, maximum drawdown is - 21.40%, recent one - week return is - 0.43%, and year - to - date return is - 5.44% [12]. - RuleBased TS Sharp - combine strategy: Annualized return is 11.6%, Sharpe ratio is 1.51, Calmar ratio is 1.40, maximum drawdown is - 8.26%, recent one - week return is 0.56%, and year - to - date return is 0.70% [12]. - RuleBased TS XGB - combine strategy: Annualized return is 11.0%, Sharpe ratio is 1.92, Calmar ratio is 2.23, maximum drawdown is - 4.95%, recent one - week return is 0.88%, and year - to - date return is - 2.24% [12]. - CS strategies, EW combine strategy: Annualized return is 12.8%, Sharpe ratio is 1.82, Calmar ratio is 1.73, maximum drawdown is - 7.38%, recent one - week return is - 0.92%, and year - to - date return is 3.74% [12]. - Among the above six strategies, the CWFT strategy performed best last week with a return of 0.28%, and the Long CWFT & Short CWFT strategy performed best year - to - date with a return of 6.45%. The equal - weighted composite strategy of the above cross - sectional strategies has an annualized return of 12.8%, a Sharpe ratio of 1.82, a Calmar ratio of 1.73, a maximum drawdown of - 7.38%, a recent one - week return of - 0.92%, and a year - to - date return of 3.74% [32].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints - Platinum and palladium face continuous selling risks, with platinum being relatively weaker and palladium being also on the weak side. The price ranges are 460 - 540 yuan/gram for Guangbo Platinum and 330 - 410 yuan/gram for Guangbo Palladium. The market sentiment is fragile, and the precious metals sector may be the first to be sold off if liquidity is withdrawn. The report maintains the view that platinum is stronger than palladium, and the platinum - palladium ratio will continue to widen. It is necessary to closely monitor the import data of platinum and palladium before May 2026 [3]. Summary by Directory Trading Aspect (Price, Spread, Funds, and Positions) - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: As of the end of this week, the total open interest of Guangbo Platinum is 23,640 lots, with a trading volume of 41,280 lots; the total open interest of Guangbo Palladium is 9,264 lots, with a trading volume of 17,458 lots. This week, the open interest of platinum and palladium decreased slightly, while the trading volume increased. The trading volume and open interest of the main contracts are significantly larger than those of non - main contracts [6]. - **Platinum - Palladium Ratio**: This week, palladium finally broke through, showing a weak market trend in line with high - frequency data, causing the platinum - palladium ratio to further widen. The London platinum - palladium ratio reached 1.37, and the Guangzhou Futures Exchange platinum - palladium ratio was 1.38. It is expected that palladium will remain weak, and the platinum - palladium ratio still has room to widen [12]. - **Overseas Spot - Futures Spread**: For platinum, the spread between London platinum spot and New York platinum main contract was inverted except on Thursday, indicating tight supply of London goods. The spread between New York platinum continuous and New York platinum main contract fluctuated and converged, with a weekly average of $9.9 per ounce. For palladium, the spread between London palladium spot and New York palladium main contract was inverted on Tuesday and Wednesday. The spread between New York palladium continuous and New York palladium main contract fluctuated and increased, with a weekly average of - $41.1 per ounce [14][16]. - **Arbitrage Analysis**: - Platinum spot - futures positive arbitrage: The cost is 4.1 yuan/gram, and the spread is 0.87 yuan/gram, so there is no arbitrage space [19]. - Palladium spot - futures positive arbitrage: The cost is 2.9 yuan/gram, and the spread is 21.9 yuan/gram, with a profit window of 19 yuan/gram [21]. - Platinum near - far month cross - month positive arbitrage: The cost is 6.8 yuan/gram, and the spread is - 4.7 yuan/gram, so the arbitrage window is not open [23]. - Palladium near - far month cross - month positive arbitrage: The cost is 5.0 yuan/gram, and the spread is - 1.0 yuan/gram, so the arbitrage window is not open [25]. - Platinum internal - external arbitrage: The cost is 59.7 yuan/gram, and the spread is 71.8 yuan/gram, with a profit window of 12.1 yuan/gram [27]. - Palladium internal - external arbitrage: The cost is 43.1 yuan/gram, and the spread is 44.5 yuan/gram, with almost no arbitrage space [29]. - Platinum import parity calculation: The cost is 58.1 yuan/gram, and the spread is 76.2 yuan/gram, with a profit window of 18.1 yuan/gram [31]. - Palladium import parity calculation: The cost is 43.3 yuan/gram, and the spread is 46.4 yuan/gram, with almost no arbitrage space [33]. - **Recycling Spread**: This week, the recycling discount of platinum further converged to 65 yuan/gram, while the recycling discount of palladium remained at about 55 yuan/gram [36]. - **ETF Holdings**: This week, the platinum ETF holdings decreased by 1.27 tons (about 40,700 ounces), and the palladium ETF holdings decreased by 1.69 tons (about 54,400 ounces). The continuous outflow of platinum and palladium ETFs indicates a pessimistic investment sentiment, and the market is expected to remain sluggish [38]. Fundamental Aspect (Inventory and Import - Export Data) - **Forward Discount Rate**: The 1 - month forward rate of palladium showed a premium this week. The forward discount of platinum remained this week, with an annualized rate of over - 5% for all terms. The forward structure of palladium continued to be loose, and the 1 - month rate was at a premium [43]. - **Inventory and Registered Warehouse Receipt Ratio**: - Platinum: This week, the NYMEX platinum inventory decreased slightly, reaching 579,300 ounces (about 18.01 tons) on Friday, and the proportion of registered warehouse receipts was 53.2% [44]. - Palladium: This week, the NYMEX palladium inventory increased significantly to 248,400 ounces (about 7.73 tons), and the proportion of registered warehouse receipts increased to 85.3% [47]. - **China's Import - Export Data**: - Platinum: Since September 2025, platinum exports have increased sharply, and imports and net inflows have diverged. Since January 2020, the cumulative net inflow has been 561.2 tons. In January and February 2026, imports decreased compared with December 2025. In January, 4.62 tons were imported, and in February, 4.4 tons were imported. In January, the export volume was also relatively large, with a net inflow of 3.29 tons in January and 4.03 tons in February [54]. - Palladium: Since 2020, there has been almost no palladium export, showing a pure import state, and the cumulative net inflow has been 177.9 tons. In January 2026, 2.76 tons were imported, with a net inflow of 2.76 tons. In February, imports increased significantly to 4.4 tons, with a net inflow of 4.4 tons [54]. - **London Fixing Supply - Demand Balance**: - Platinum: This week, the London platinum fixing supply - demand balance was negative on only three trading days, with a weekly average of 41.6 kg [56][57]. - Palladium: This week, the London palladium fixing supply - demand balance was positive for five days, with a weekly average of 126.5 kg [58][59].

Core Viewpoint - The internationalization of nickel futures and options is a significant milestone for the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE), aimed at enhancing risk management tools for global nickel industry players and increasing China's influence on major commodity pricing [1][4][5]. Group 1: Internationalization of Nickel Futures and Options - The SHFE has officially introduced foreign traders to participate in nickel futures and options trading starting from April 22, following approval from the China Securities Regulatory Commission [1][2]. - Nickel futures and options are among the first specific products to be opened to foreign participation on the SHFE platform, reflecting the central government's commitment to the opening-up of the futures market [4][5]. Group 2: Market Dynamics and Demand - Nickel has evolved from a traditional industrial raw material to a strategic metal crucial for new energy and high-end manufacturing, with increasing demand in sectors like electric vehicles and advanced manufacturing [5][6]. - The internationalization of nickel futures and options is expected to meet the growing risk management needs of enterprises deeply integrated into the global market, as well as to provide a stable trading environment for industry clients [6][9]. Group 3: Structural Enhancements and Regulations - The SHFE has made several structural enhancements to facilitate the participation of foreign entities, including the introduction of special foreign participants and the establishment of a framework for indirect delivery of futures contracts [7][8]. - Specific regulations have been implemented regarding position limits, margin requirements, and settlement processes to ensure a smooth integration of foreign participants into the market [8]. Group 4: Industry Reactions and Future Outlook - Industry stakeholders have expressed strong support for the internationalization of nickel futures and options, highlighting the potential for improved risk management and pricing efficiency in the global market [9][10]. - The opening of nickel futures and options is anticipated to enhance the global recognition of "Shanghai prices," thereby strengthening the stability and resilience of the global nickel supply chain [10].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The bond market is mainly in a high - level shock state this week. The main trading logic is "abundant funds", and the shock pattern will continue. The 10Y and above bonds are relatively weak, while the 5 - 7Y bonds perform well. Neither imported inflation nor external demand recession has become the main line of the domestic market [15] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1.1 Futures and Bond Data - Futures prices: T2606 is 108.24, TF2606 is 105.7 with a 0.01% change, TS2606 is 102.522 with a 0.05% change, and TL2606 is 110.63 with a 0.43% change [3] - When - week data statistics: 10 - year, 5 - year, 2 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures all showed declines in prices; there were changes in inter - period and cross - variety spreads; bond yields of different maturities had different changes, and some national development bond yields also changed; bank - to - bank pledged repurchase rates and SHIBOR rates had corresponding weekly changes [8] 1.3 Market Thinking - In the bond market, the long - short game continues, and it may continue the high - level shock. The main trading logic is "abundant funds", and institutional behavior has a strong supporting effect on the bond market this week [15] 1.4 This Week's Focus 1.4.1 US - Iran Situation - The US - Iran conflict has escalated in a way that the US does not like. Trump postponed his visit to China, and Israel's actions have further escalated the conflict. The US is trying to ease the market, and the pressure of the Middle - East conflict on the mid - term elections has become obvious [16] 1.4.2 March FOMC - The Fed maintained its rate - cut stance but became marginally hawkish. It showed concern about oil prices. The statements of central banks of other economies raised the market's inflation expectations, causing the US dollar index to fall [17][18]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Recently, coal and coke have been mainly fluctuating strongly. The market trading logic revolves around two aspects. Firstly, against the backdrop of geopolitical disturbances, the energy attribute of coking coal has been further fermented. Due to the impact of the US - Iran war, overseas energy prices have shown a significant upward shift, leading to sky - rocketing import coal freight and arrival prices in the domestic market. This has exacerbated the inversion of the price difference between domestic and foreign markets, and strengthened the preference of secondary - market funds for coking coal. Secondly, the profit of coking plants has improved due to the increase in energy and chemical prices, with an expected recovery in capacity utilization. The replenishment behavior has tightened the spot market of coking coal, and the price is expected to continue to rise. In the short term, investors are advised to be cautious and wait and see [5]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Coal and Coke Weekly Viewpoint 3.1.1 Supply - **Domestic Supply**: In Shanxi and Inner Mongolia, some coal mines that postponed resumption due to major meetings have continued to resume production. The overall supply in the production areas has been increasing. The weekly output of raw coal from sample coal mines increased by 21.4 tons to 1253.32 tons, and the output of clean coal increased by 9.37 tons to 618.93 tons. The capacity utilization rate increased by 1.49% to 87.2%, returning to the pre - holiday level [3]. - **Import**: Due to the tense international situation and high prices of energy such as crude oil, the forward price of Australian quasi - first - line coking coal rebounded slightly to around FOB224 US dollars, a weekly increase of 4 US dollars. The equivalent domestic port pick - up price is about 1953 yuan/ton. Compared with the domestic production area coal price, the forward price of Australian coal is still severely inverted [3]. 3.1.2 Demand - The price of coking coal has risen significantly, and the resumption of blast furnaces has continued to advance. This week, the pig iron output increased by 6.59 tons to 228.15 tons. Some coking enterprises have started to raise prices, and mainstream coking enterprises may follow suit next week [6]. 3.1.3 Inventory - The total inventory of coking coal in each link increased by 29.4 tons week - on - week. The inventory in the coal mine link decreased by 23.6 tons, with good sales at the mine end. The inventory of coking and steel enterprises in the downstream is in the resumption stage, with high production enthusiasm and increased coal demand. The coking coal inventory in the independent coking link increased by 35.6 tons compared with last week [6]. 3.2 Coal and Coke Fundamental Data Changes | Fundamental Changes | Coal | Coke | | --- | --- | --- | | Supply | FW raw coal 880.86 (+6.95); FW clean coal 448.54 (+2.60) | Independent coking plant daily average 64.2 (+0.3); Steel mill coking enterprise daily average 47.3 (+0.3) | | Demand | Pig iron output 228.15 (+6.95) | Pig iron output 228.15 (+6.95) | | Inventory | MS total inventory +29.4; Mine clean coal - 15.69; Independent coking +35.6; Mine raw coal - 10.04; Steel mill coking - 3.7; Port - 16.6; Port of entry +3.5 | MS total inventory +0.2; Independent coking - 6.2; Steel mill +0.6; Port +5.8 | | Profit | Commodity coal 457 (+13); Mongolian 5 Tangshan warehouse receipt 1243 | Coking enterprise average profit 77 (+5); Port quasi - dry quenched coke warehouse receipt 1700 | [8] 3.3 Coking Coal Fundamental Data - **Supply**: The report provides data on the weekly and monthly supply of coking coal, including the production of raw coal and clean coal from sample mines, and the monthly production of coking bituminous coal and coking clean coal. It also shows the customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal at various ports [10][12][14]. - **Inventory**: It details the inventory of coking coal at the pithead, ports, coking plants, and steel mills, including the inventory volume and available days [22][26][29][35]. 3.4 Coke Fundamental Data - **Supply**: It includes the capacity utilization rate and production of coking plants and steel mills. The capacity utilization rate of independent coking plants and steel enterprises is presented, as well as the daily output of coke from coking plants and steel mills [38][43][45]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of coke at coking plants and steel mills is provided, including the inventory volume, available days, and regional inventory [49][50][52]. - **Demand**: The demand for coke is mainly reflected in the pig iron production, and the supply - demand difference of coke is also analyzed [61]. - **Profit**: The report shows the profit of coke, including the disk profit of coke per ton and the average profit per ton of independent coking enterprises [64]. 3.5 Coal and Coke Futures and Spot Prices - **Futures**: The trading information of coking coal 2605, coking coal 2609, coke 2605, and coke 2609 futures contracts is provided, including the closing price, price change, trading volume, and open interest [67][70]. - **Spot**: The spot prices of coking coal and coke are presented, including the car - board price of different types of coking coal and the ex - factory price of different grades of metallurgical coke [78]. - **Basis**: The basis of coking coal and coke futures contracts is shown [80].