1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Domestic commodity futures market closed with mixed results, with most new energy materials rising. Shipping futures led the gains, while chemical products led the losses [1]. - The US economy shows a weak - stable total and a differentiated structure. The manufacturing PMI in January was favorable, but the non - manufacturing sector weakened, and employment data was below expectations [1]. - In China, the boost from the incremental policies in Q4 2025 to the fundamentals has not been significant, but policy expectations are gradually increasing. The manufacturing PMI in January declined, but the expectation of policy support in Q1 is strengthening [1]. - Domestic equity markets are supported by policy expectations and additional liquidity. Treasury bonds are neutral, with better short - term opportunities. Gold in precious metals maintains a long - position standard, while silver is on hold. Non - ferrous metals are still promising, and short - term dips can be used for bottom - fishing. Black commodities are volatile, and crude oil may rise but with high uncertainty [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Performance - **Domestic Commodity Futures**: Shipping futures led the gains, with the container shipping index (European line) up 6.40%. New energy materials mostly rose, with lithium carbonate up 3.66%. Basic metals mostly rose, with Shanghai nickel up 1.79%. Agricultural and sideline products all rose, with apples up 1.73%. Energy products all rose, with fuel oil up 1.09%. Chemical products led the losses, with butadiene rubber down 1.93%. Oils and fats mostly fell, with palm oil down 1.50%. Precious metals were mixed, with palladium down 1.48%. Black series all fell, with ferrosilicon down 1.47%. Non - metallic building materials all fell, with PVC down 0.78% [1]. - **Financial Market**: On February 12, 2026, among stock index futures, CSI 500 futures rose 1.31%, and CSI 1000 futures rose 1.09%. Among Treasury bond futures, 30 - year Treasury bond futures rose 0.06%. The US dollar index rose 0.06%, and the US dollar intermediate price decreased by 108 pips [9]. - **Industry Index**: On February 12, 2026, among the中信 industry indices, non - ferrous metals rose 0.98%, and machinery rose 1.29%, while agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery fell 1.48%, and consumer services fell 1.75% [10][11]. - **Overseas Commodities**: On February 11, 2026, NYMEX WTI crude oil rose 1.45%, ICE Brent oil rose 1.21%, COMEX gold rose 1.53%, and LME nickel rose 3.29% [12][13]. - **Domestic Main Commodities**: On February 12, 2026, the container shipping European line rose 5.27%, lithium carbonate rose 12.33% weekly, and iron ore fell 0.11% daily [14][15][16]. 3.2 Sector Analysis - **Finance**: Before the holiday, it may be volatile. Stock index futures may be volatile and slightly stronger, stock index options should continue to hold call options for defense, Treasury bond futures are supported by monetary easing expectations, and gold and silver are in a stage of adjustment with reduced capital enthusiasm [5]. - **Shipping**: The OOCL's March online price is $3130/FEU, and the market is in a state of shrinking trading volume and consolidation before the holiday [5]. - **Black Building Materials**: In the off - season, contradictions are accumulating, and the market is under pressure. Steel, iron ore, coke, coking coal, etc. are all in a volatile state [5]. - **Non - ferrous and New Materials**: The expected trading of "Woshi Eagle" is weakening, and basic metals stop falling and are volatile. Nickel, stainless steel, and tin are expected to be volatile and slightly stronger [5]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: Concerns about the Middle East situation continue to disrupt oil prices, and the chemical industry continues to be in a state of volatile consolidation [6]. - **Agriculture**: Optimistic sentiment supports US soybeans, and domestic double - meal is mainly volatile. Most agricultural products are in a volatile state, and the pig price is running at a low level [6].

Report Summary Core View - On February 12, 2026, the A-share market showed a differentiated trend, with the Shanghai Composite Index fluctuating and consolidating, while the Shenzhen Component Index and the ChiNext Index showed stronger trends. The trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets increased by 159.8 billion yuan compared to the previous day, reaching 2.16 trillion yuan [1]. - The prices of various futures products also showed different trends, affected by factors such as supply and demand, market expectations, and international market conditions. Summary by Variety Stock Index Futures - On February 12, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.05% to close at 4134.02 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.86% to close at 14283.00 points, and the ChiNext Index rose 1.32% to close at 3328.06 points. The CSI 300 Index fluctuated narrowly, closing at 4719.58, up 5.76 from the previous day [1][2]. Coke and Coking Coal - On February 12, the weighted index of coke showed weak consolidation, closing at 1669.9, down 4.4 from the previous day. The weighted index of coking coal fluctuated weakly, closing at 1132.1 yuan, down 5.3 from the previous day [2][3]. - Coking profit is average, with daily production slightly decreasing and inventory slightly increasing. Traders' purchasing willingness is average. The supply of carbon elements is abundant, and the downstream molten iron remains at a low level in the off - season, with average steel profit levels. The daily customs clearance of Mongolian coal is 1179 vehicles. The output of coking coal mines has slightly increased, and the spot auction price is inversely proportional to the futures price, with a slight decline in the成交 price. The total inventory of coking coal has increased significantly, and the winter storage demand is coming to an end [4]. Zhengzhou Sugar - Affected by the expectation of global supply surplus, the US sugar continued to decline on Wednesday. The Zhengzhou sugar 2605 contract fluctuated downward on Thursday due to the decline of US sugar, the reduction of spot prices, and the approaching long - holiday, which led to long - position closing. As of February 10, Thailand's cumulative sugarcane crushing volume was 57.5996 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 7.67%; the sugar content was 12.45%, a year - on - year increase of 0.15%; the sugar production rate was 10.66%, a year - on - year increase of 0.171%; the sugar production was 6.1404 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 6.17% [4]. Rubber - According to the latest data from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, in January, automobile sales decreased by 3.2% year - on - year. Affected by this and the holiday effect, the Shanghai rubber futures fluctuated slightly lower on Thursday. In January, the production and sales of automobiles were 2.45 million and 2.346 million respectively, with production increasing by 0.01% year - on - year and sales decreasing by 3.2% year - on - year. According to the Passenger Car Association, the retail sales of the national passenger car market in January were 1.544 million, a year - on - year decrease of 13.9% [4]. Soybean Meal - In the international market, on February 12, the CBOT soybean futures price closed higher. The market expected the improvement of the trade prospects, which promoted the demand for US soybeans and boosted the price. Brazil's soybean production is expected to reach a record high, and the harvesting progress is accelerating. Brazil's soybean exports are expected to be 11.71 million tons in February. The US Department of Agriculture maintained Argentina's soybean production at 48.5 million tons. The rainfall in Argentina's main soybean - producing areas this week is expected to relieve the drought. In the domestic market, on February 12, the main contract of soybean meal M2605 closed at 2790 yuan/ton, up 0.61%. Before the festival, the soybean crushing volume of oil mills remained high, the output of soybean meal increased, and the inventory continued to rise. The procurement of imported soybeans for March shipments is basically completed, and the arrival volume of Brazilian soybeans in April and May will increase significantly. The pre - festival demand boost effect decreases, and the expectation of supply relaxation is postponed [5]. Live Pigs - On February 12, the main contract of live pigs LH2605 closed at 11540 yuan/ton, down 0.13% from the previous trading day. On the supply side, as the pre - festival slaughter window narrows, the price - holding mentality of the breeding end has loosened, and the incremental slaughter operations of group pig enterprises and individual pig farms have increased. The supply of suitable - weight standard pigs in February is still at a high level, and there is an excess pressure on the suitable - weight pig sources. On the demand side, as the Spring Festival approaches, the phenomenon of residents' stocking increases, which provides phased support for the pig price, but the overall demand boost is limited. In the medium term, the inventory of breeding sows and piglet replenishment are both at high levels, and the subsequent slaughter volume is guaranteed [5]. Palm Oil - On February 12, before the festival, funds in palm oil futures continued to reduce positions to avoid risks, and the futures price fluctuated downward. The main contract P2605 closed with a negative K - line. The highest price was 8932, the lowest price was 8782, and the closing price was 8782, down 1.39% from the previous trading day. According to the data released by the shipping survey agency SGS, the export volume of Malaysian palm oil from February 1 - 10 is expected to be 273,472 tons, a decrease of 16.1% compared with the same period last month. From February 1 - 10, 2026, Malaysia's palm oil yield per unit area decreased by 9.16% month - on - month, the oil extraction rate increased by 0.3% month - on - month, and the production decreased by 7.58% month - on - month [5]. Shanghai Copper - The main contract of Shanghai copper (CU2603) closed at 102,330 yuan/ton, with an intraday high of 103,730, a low of 101,840, a trading volume of 114,000 lots, and a position of 147,600 lots. The core driving factors are: macro - level, the US dollar is weak, there is an expectation of domestic stable growth, and funds prefer industrial metals; supply - side, the increment of copper mines is limited, the processing fee is at a low level, and the cost support is strong; spot - market, the price of Yangtze River No. 1 copper is 102,180 yuan/ton (+750), and the price of SMM No. 1 copper is 102,040 yuan/ton (+725), and the linkage between futures and spot is strengthening [5]. Cotton - On Thursday night, the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton closed at 14,850 yuan/ton. The cotton inventory increased by 143 lots compared with the previous trading day. Textile enterprises mainly purchase raw materials for rigid demand, the enterprise operating rate remains at a high level, and the inventory of gauze has decreased significantly [5]. Iron Ore - On February 12, the main contract of iron ore 2605 fluctuated and closed down, with a decline of 0.2% and a closing price of 762 yuan. The shipment of Australian and Brazilian iron ore decreased compared with the previous period, the domestic arrival volume also decreased, the port inventory continued to accumulate, the steel mill's replenishment demand gradually ended, and the growth space of molten iron is limited. The iron ore price is in a fluctuating trend in the short term [5]. Asphalt - On February 12, the main contract of asphalt 2604 fluctuated and closed down, with a decline of 0.24% and a closing price of 3343 yuan. The asphalt supply remains at a low level, the refinery inventory pressure is not large, the terminal demand continues to shrink, the pre - festival spot trading is清淡, and the asphalt price shows a fluctuating trend in the short term [6]. Logs - The main contract of logs 2603 opened at 776 on Thursday, with a minimum of 776, a maximum of 788, and a closing price of 779.5, with a daily reduction of 830 lots. On the last trading day before the festival, attention should be paid to the support from the spot end and the margin - increasing market before the festival. On February 12, the spot price of 3.9 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs in Shandong was 750 yuan/cubic meter, unchanged from the previous day, and the spot price of 4 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs in Jiangsu was 780 yuan/cubic meter, unchanged from the previous day. Although the overseas market has raised prices, the domestic spot market is stable before the festival, which needs to be verified after the festival. Subsequently, attention should be paid to the spot price, import data, inventory changes, and the support of macro - expected market sentiment on prices [6]. Steel - On February 12, rb2605 closed at 3050 yuan/ton, and hc2605 closed at 3218 yuan/ton. As the Spring Festival approaches, downstream real estate, infrastructure, and construction sites are on full - scale holiday, the core demand for rebar enters a seasonal vacuum period, and rigid - demand procurement is almost stagnant. Traders and downstream enterprises have basically completed their pre - festival stocking, and their willingness to store for the winter is extremely low, with only a small amount of rigid - demand replenishment, which is difficult to support the price increase. The demand side has become the core factor suppressing the futures market [6]. Alumina - On February 12, ao2605 closed at 2808 yuan/ton. The domestic alumina market is in a delicate balance state, with multiple contradictions intertwined on both the supply and demand sides. On the one hand, the industry inventory pressure continues to be high, and the total inventory of in - factory, in - transit, and downstream raw materials has climbed to the highest level in the same period in the past five years, highlighting the hidden danger of supply surplus. On the other hand, the industry actively adjusts production capacity, the launch of new production capacity is postponed, and positive signals appear on the demand side, which support the market to maintain a stalemate pattern in the short term, and the core contradiction in the market is gradually changing [6]. Shanghai Aluminum - On February 12, al2603 closed at 23,610 yuan/ton. The electrolytic aluminum price will show a weak - fluctuating pattern before the festival to digest the inventory pressure, but the medium - and long - term bottom support is solid, and the deep - decline space is limited. In the short term, the seasonal inventory - accumulation process is not over, and the high inventory will continue to suppress the price. In the long term, the strategic position of electrolytic aluminum in the green energy transformation is stable, and the new - energy vehicle, photovoltaic, and grid - investment fields will continue to provide structural growth demand. Overall, after the pre - festival sentiment and weak - reality correction, the aluminum price is expected to fluctuate strongly in the medium - and long - term under the pattern of tight supply - demand balance [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the steel industry is "oscillating" [1] 2. Core View of the Report - This week, the production of rebar, hot-rolled coils, and five major steel products decreased, inventories increased, and demand continued to decline, which was in line with expectations. The spot steel prices were stable on February 12th, with sluggish trading, and the spot market was basically closed, waiting for post - holiday demand recovery. As the Spring Festival approaches, trading volume has shrunk, but positions are at a high level, and there are significant differences between long and short sides regarding the post - holiday market. It is recommended to hold light positions or no positions during the holiday [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel Market Conditions - On Thursday, rebar and hot - rolled coils closed down and rose during the night session [1] Important Information - In 2025, China's newly installed capacity of wind and solar power exceeded 430 million kilowatts, setting a new historical high [1] - Among 51 short - process and billet - adjusted section steel production enterprises nationwide, 4% continued normal production during the Spring Festival. The main resumption times after the festival are concentrated around February 24 - 26 (the 8th - 10th day of the first lunar month) and after March 3 (the 15th day of the first lunar month) [1] - This week, the supply of five major steel products was 7.9406 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 258,400 tons or 3.2%; the total inventory was 14.4273 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.0498 million tons or 7.8%; the weekly apparent consumption was 6.8908 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 9.4% [1] Market Logic - This week, the production of rebar, hot - rolled coils, and five major steel products decreased, inventories increased, and demand continued to decline, which was in line with expectations. On February 12th, the spot steel prices were stable, trading was sluggish, and the spot market was basically closed, waiting for post - holiday demand recovery [1] Trading Strategy - As the Spring Festival approaches, trading volume has shrunk. On February 12th, the trading volume of the rebar main contract was less than 500,000 lots, about 50% lower than the average daily volume of 900,000 - 1 million lots in January. However, positions are at a high level, with the position of the rebar main contract remaining above 2 million lots, and funds have not left the market on a large scale. There are significant differences between long and short sides regarding the post - holiday market. Be vigilant against possible concentrated liquidation on the last trading day, which may lead to unexpected market conditions. It is recommended to hold light positions or no positions during the holiday [1]

Group 1: Oil Market Insights - The International Energy Agency (IEA) has revised down its forecast for global oil demand growth in 2026, now predicting a surplus of 3.73 million barrels per day, slightly higher than the previous month's estimate of 3.69 million barrels per day [1] - The surplus is primarily driven by increased supply from OPEC+ and non-OPEC countries, despite a slowdown in global oil demand growth [1][3] - The IEA has adjusted its forecast for global oil supply growth in 2026 from 2.5 million barrels per day to 2.4 million barrels per day, indicating that supply growth is outpacing demand growth [3] Group 2: Precious Metals Market - Precious metals, particularly silver, have seen significant declines, attributed to a drop in U.S. tech stocks and a decrease in market risk appetite [2][18] - The U.S. added 130,000 non-farm jobs in January, exceeding expectations, which has tempered interest rate cut expectations, although the overall employment market is cooling [2][18] - Despite short-term volatility, long-term factors such as de-dollarization, geopolitical risks, and central bank gold purchases remain supportive for gold prices, with expectations for a return to a steady upward trend [2][18] Group 3: Stock Market Overview - U.S. stock indices have declined, with a market turnover of 2.16 trillion yuan, and a reduction in financing balance by 15.917 billion yuan to 26.27824 trillion yuan [4][11] - February is expected to maintain a phase of positive momentum, supported by seasonal recovery in consumption and the release of policy dividends from the "14th Five-Year Plan" [4][11] - However, potential volatility in overseas capital markets during the upcoming holiday period, particularly due to geopolitical risks, should be monitored [4][11] Group 4: Agricultural Products - Brazil's cotton exports for the 2025/26 season are projected to reach 14.5 million bales, an increase of 1.5 million bales year-on-year, marking a record high for the third consecutive year [1] - The growth in cotton exports is primarily driven by demand from China, Bangladesh, Turkey, and India, with an expected year-on-year increase of 6% [1] Group 5: Commodity Price Movements - The COMEX reported a significant drop in registered silver inventory by 3.256882 million ounces, with total inventory falling below 100 million ounces to 98.138005 million ounces [1] - The physical outflow of qualified delivery silver exceeded 4.7 million ounces in a single day, indicating a net outflow from the trading system [1]

证券代码：600927 证券简称：永安期货 公告编号：2026-007 永安期货股份有限公司 （一）审议通过《关于高级管理人员考核的议案》 表决结果：9票赞成，0票反对，0票弃权，关联董事黄志明、马志伟回避表决。 本议案已经公司董事会提名与薪酬考核委员会审议通过。 特此公告。 永安期货股份有限公司董事会 一、董事会会议召开情况 永安期货股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）第四届董事会第十九次会议于2026年2月11日以通讯表决方 式召开。会议通知于2026年2月4日以书面和电子邮件等方式发出。本次会议应出席董事11人，实际出席 董事11人，会议由黄志明先生主持。会议的召集、召开符合《公司法》和《公司章程》的有关规定，会 议决议合法有效。 二、董事会会议审议情况 本次会议审议并通过如下议案： 第四届董事会第十九次会议决议公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述或者重大遗漏，并对其内容 的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 2026年2月12日 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of risk management in the futures market, especially as the market experiences increased trading enthusiasm and complexity among participants [1][2][3] Group 1: Market Conditions and Regulatory Environment - Today marks the last trading day before the Spring Festival holiday, with investors eager to conclude the pre-holiday market positively [1] - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) and local regulatory bodies have intensified market supervision since December, implementing administrative measures to enhance risk control [1] - The growing scale of capital in the futures market has led to heightened trading enthusiasm among investors and institutions, necessitating improved risk management practices [1] Group 2: Investor Behavior and Risks - There are instances of investors blindly trading in unfamiliar markets, leading to significant losses, as illustrated by a case of an experienced agricultural futures trader who suffered due to lack of knowledge in the precious metals market [2] - The article warns against the dangers of illegal futures trading, where unlicensed platforms lure investors with promises of high returns, resulting in financial losses [3] - Investors are advised to engage only with legitimate futures companies and to be cautious of high-risk trading strategies, especially during the long holiday period when market volatility may increase [3] Group 3: Recommendations for Futures Companies - Futures companies are urged to enhance their risk monitoring and investor education efforts, ensuring compliance with regulations to mitigate risks [2][3] - The need for innovation in service and risk management is highlighted, as the trading methods and investor demographics have significantly evolved since the inception of the futures market in China [2]

Core Viewpoint - The 2026 Zhengzhou Government Work Report emphasizes the importance of the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange (ZCE) in enhancing modern service industries and aims to transform Zhengzhou into a more internationally influential pricing center for commodities [1]. Group 1: Government Support and Strategic Goals - The report supports ZCE's collaboration with major global futures exchanges to expand its product offerings and accelerate the establishment of a futures industry park [1]. - Zhengzhou's transformation into a pricing center is seen as a key strategic layout for ensuring national food, energy, and industrial chain security, as well as supporting the rise of the central region [1]. Group 2: ZCE's Development and Market Position - ZCE has evolved over more than 30 years from a focus on agricultural products to covering significant sectors of the national economy, including energy, chemicals, textiles, and metallurgy, with 27 futures products and 20 options products [1]. - In 2022, ZCE's total trading volume and value increased by 20.26% and 4.47% year-on-year, respectively, accounting for 34.59% and 11.61% of the national market [1]. Group 3: Enhancing "Zhengzhou Price" Influence - Experts suggest that ZCE should focus on four areas to enhance the influence of "Zhengzhou Price": leveraging core product advantages, improving the spot-futures ecosystem, increasing cooperation with international exchanges, and strengthening technological and talent support [2][3]. - The goal is to establish "Zhengzhou Price" as a global standard for commodity trading and risk management tools [2]. Group 4: Product Optimization and Expansion - The report's call to "refine and expand products" indicates a dual approach: deepening existing product offerings and broadening the range of services to cover more sectors, particularly in food, energy, and emerging industries [4]. - This strategy aims to enhance the futures market's ability to serve the real economy by providing comprehensive risk management solutions across the entire industrial chain [4].

2月12日，在周三的美国交易时段早盘，贵金属市场呈现出明显的攀升态势。GTC泽汇资本表示，由于 市场在关键就业报告发布前涌现大量避险需求，黄金与白银价格均表现稳健，其中白银再次占据领涨地 位。目前4月黄金期货价格已触及5119.10美元，而3月白银价格也同步上行至85.465美元，整体市场处于 积极的反弹模式。 针对今日异常的"就业周三"现象，由于此前政府停摆导致劳工部推迟发布数据，市场正高度关注即将揭 晓的1月非农就业报告。GTC泽汇资本认为，考虑到基准数据的下修预期以及失业率可能维持在4.4%的 历史高点，市场情绪偏向谨慎。此外，美国FAA突然暂停埃尔帕索机场所有航班的举动引发了地缘安全 疑虑，这种不明原因的安保限制进一步强化了贵金属作为避险资产的吸引力。 实物供应的紧缺也为价格提供了支撑。GTC泽汇资本表示，亚洲市场的投资与工业需求正迅速消耗库 存，导致当地生产商面临订单积压。目前上海期货交易所的近月合约溢价已创下纪录，市场深陷现货升 水结构。这种由于交割材料枯竭引发的库存危机，使得空头持有者不得不支付延期费来避免实物交割， 凸显了现货市场的极度稀缺性。 从外部市场环境来看，美元小幅回调与油价上涨为金银 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Views of the Report - The Nasdaq faces downward pressure, and the downward risk of US stocks will spill over. US stock funds are flowing from technology stocks to defensive sectors. It is advisable to exit long positions in stock index futures, reduce equity - type assets, or use short positions in stock index futures to hedge risks or buy put options for protection [4][6]. - China's inflation level moderately rebounded in January. The central bank maintains ample liquidity, supporting long positions in treasury bonds. Treasury bond futures may maintain a volatile pattern, and trading - type investors can conduct band operations [5]. - After previous sharp fluctuations, the volatility of precious metals is narrowing. However, there is still a possibility of significant fluctuations during the Spring Festival holiday. It is recommended to control risks and hold light positions [5]. - For the "Three Oils and Two Meals" strategy, it is recommended to close long positions in double meals before the festival to lock in profits and pay attention to the decline expectation after the festival. For vegetable oils, it is recommended to exit previous long positions, hold light positions during the holiday, and resume trading after the festival [23][29][31]. - For sugar and jujubes, it is recommended to take a bearish view in the medium - and long - term, use options for risk control, or hold empty positions during the holiday [24][35]. - For cotton, apples, and logs, cotton is expected to maintain a volatile pattern; apples are expected to maintain high - level volatility in the short term; logs are expected to have an upward price space [25][36][37][38]. - For corn, hogs, and eggs, it is necessary to pay attention to relevant risks such as grain quality, supply pressure, and chicken culling rhythm after the Spring Festival. It is recommended to hold light or empty positions during the holiday [26][39][40][42]. - For crude oil, the price is expected to show a short - term upward - trending volatility before the outcome of the US - Iran situation is determined [49]. - For lithium carbonate, the fundamentals are strong, but it is necessary to manage positions during the holiday [52]. - For methanol, it is in an interval - running pattern, and attention should be paid to the Middle - East geopolitical situation during the holiday [55]. - For urea, the price is likely to rise but is restricted by policies. Attention should be paid to the Middle - East geopolitical situation and domestic demand progress during the holiday [58]. - For pure benzene, the price is expected to show a wide - range and strong - trending volatility. Attention should be paid to the Middle - East geopolitical situation and post - holiday demand [61]. - For bottle chips, the price is expected to follow the raw material end in a wide - range and strong - trending volatility. Attention should be paid to the Middle - East geopolitical situation and crude oil performance [62]. - For rubber series, it is recommended to hold light or empty positions during the holiday and pay attention to the overseas market [66]. - For steel, iron ore, coking coal and coke, and ferroalloys, it is recommended to significantly reduce positions to avoid risks during the holiday [67][68][69][70]. - For non - ferrous metals, copper prices may be suppressed by the strengthening US dollar; for aluminum, alumina, and caustic soda, it is recommended to hold light positions and operate cautiously during the holiday [85][86][87]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Stock Index - The rebound of the Nasdaq is a technical pullback after breaking below the semi - annual line. Hedge funds have sold US stocks for four consecutive weeks, and the selling in the first week of February was the most intense since April last year [4]. - Investors are worried that the industry disruption brought by AI may be more extensive than expected, and companies planning to invest hundreds of billions of dollars in AI construction may not meet high - profit expectations. US stock funds are flowing from technology stocks to defensive sectors [4]. - It is recommended to exit long positions in stock index futures, reduce equity - type assets, or use short positions in stock index futures to hedge risks or buy put options for protection [4]. Treasury Bonds - In January, China's overall inflation level moderately rebounded. The core CPI rose 0.3% month - on - month, and the PPI rose 0.4% month - on - month [5]. - In January, the official manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, and the service industry business activity index was 49.5%, both below the boom - bust line, indicating a moderate economy in January [5]. - The central bank maintains ample liquidity, supporting long positions in treasury bonds. Treasury bond futures may maintain a volatile pattern, and trading - type investors can conduct band operations [5]. Precious Metals Gold and Silver - After previous sharp fluctuations, the volatility of precious metals is narrowing. The COMEX gold may form an equilibrium at around $5000 per ounce, and the COMEX silver at around $80 per ounce [5]. - However, due to the long Spring Festival holiday and many uncertainties in overseas markets, there is still a possibility of significant fluctuations in gold and silver [5]. Palladium - Before the festival, palladium shows characteristics of spot shortage, high - price volatility, and being dominated by macro - sentiment. The short - term support is strong, but the callback risk is prominent [19]. - It is recommended to reduce positions on rallies, operate cautiously, hold light positions during the holiday, and avoid chasing up. Short - term short positions can be tried lightly above 400 yuan per gram [19]. Platinum - Before the festival, platinum prices are highly volatile, in a pattern of tight supply - demand balance and low inventory. The medium - and long - term structural shortage supports prices, but the short - term callback and basis reversal risks are prominent [22]. - It is recommended to operate cautiously, hold light positions during the holiday, and avoid one - sided short selling [22]. Three Oils and Two Meals Three Oils - Policy: As the Spring Festival holiday approaches, the exchange raises margins to control risks, leading to a decline in market trading enthusiasm and downward pressure on the vegetable oil market [29]. - Macro: The US - Iran negotiation results have a significant impact on international crude oil prices, and vegetable oil futures prices will follow to some extent [29]. - Fundamentals: The US biodiesel policy boosts US soybean oil, while Indonesia cancels the 2026 B50 biodiesel plan, pressuring Malaysian palm oil. Domestic vegetable oil Spring Festival stocking is over, and the Brazilian soybean harvest progress is accelerating, bringing pressure to the vegetable oil market [29]. - It is recommended to exit previous long positions in vegetable oils, hold light positions during the holiday, and resume trading after the festival [29]. Two Meals - Policy: As the Spring Festival holiday approaches, the exchange raises margins to control risks, leading to a decline in market trading enthusiasm [31]. - Macro: China's new round of purchases of US soybeans pushes up US soybean prices, and there are rumors of tightening import grain policies in China [31]. - Fundamentals: The Brazilian soybean harvest progress is accelerating, and the expected 184 million tons of production weakens the South American soybean discount. There are rumors of a 5 - million - ton auction of old - reserve imported soybeans after the Spring Festival in China, and the supply pressure is increasing [31]. - It is recommended to close long positions in double meals before the festival to lock in profits [31]. Sugar and Jujubes - Sugar: The recent ICE raw sugar has fallen below the 14 - cent - per - pound integer support, reaching a five - year low. The global sugar supply - demand balance sheet exerts pressure on sugar prices, and the domestic sugar spot trading is stagnant before the festival. It is recommended to use options for risk control or hold empty positions during the holiday [35]. - Jujubes: Before the festival, jujube futures prices rebounded due to the exit of short positions. The supply pressure is the main factor suppressing prices. It is recommended to take a bearish view in the medium - and long - term and hold previous high - level short positions during the holiday [35]. Cotton, Apples, and Logs Cotton - The international cotton market is in a loose pattern. The supply shows structural changes, and the consumption is differentiated. The domestic supply is abundant, and the downstream trading is slowing down before the festival. Cotton prices are expected to maintain a volatile pattern [36]. Apples - The pre - festival trading in apple production areas is basically over. The cold - storage good - quality apples are in short supply, raising the cost of warehouse receipts. Apple prices are expected to maintain high - level volatility in the short term [37]. Logs - The log futures market has both bullish and bearish factors. The price of 3 - meter wood squares in Lanshan area is rising, and the market expects the log price to have an upward space, injecting positive factors into the futures market [38]. Corn, Hogs, and Eggs Corn - Short - term: The spot market trading is light before the Spring Festival, with narrow - range fluctuations. Medium - term: There is still inventory - building demand after the Spring Festival, and a wide - range trading idea should be maintained. Long - term: The pricing logic is still based on substitution + planting cost [39]. - It is recommended to hold light or empty positions during the holiday and pay attention to the post - holiday grain quality and policy - grain auction [39]. Hogs - Short - term: The supply of hogs is abundant, and the consumption support is weak before the holiday. Medium - term: The supply pressure will continue to be released before March, and will be alleviated from April. Long - term: The supply pressure will still exist before August, and the far - month contract expectations are lowered [40]. - It is recommended to hold light or empty positions during the holiday and focus on the post - holiday supply pressure and disease situation [40]. Eggs - Short - term: The spot trading is light before the Spring Festival, and the pattern of strong supply and weak demand in February is putting pressure on egg prices. Medium - term: The egg supply pressure is postponed. Long - term: The continuous expansion of the egg - laying hen breeding scale may limit the price increase space [42]. - It is recommended to hold light or empty positions during the holiday and focus on the chicken culling and molting rhythm around the Spring Festival [42]. Crude Oil - The US - Iran negotiation and market liquidity have affected the crude oil price recently. The price is expected to show a short - term upward - trending volatility before the outcome of the US - Iran situation is determined [49]. Lithium Carbonate - The market's expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cut has increased, leading to the stabilization of precious metals and the rebound of the non - ferrous sector. The fundamentals are strong, with production and inventory decreasing. The lithium - battery industry's production plan in March is expected to reach a new high [52]. - It is necessary to manage positions during the holiday [52]. Methanol - The methanol port inventory is at a high level, and the overseas Iranian methanol plants are expected to gradually resume in March. The price is in an interval - running pattern, and attention should be paid to the Middle - East geopolitical situation during the holiday [55]. Urea - Urea factories have been destocking since mid - October last year, and the price is supported by reserve demand and agricultural stocking. However, high daily production still exerts pressure. The price is likely to rise but is restricted by policies. Attention should be paid to the Middle - East geopolitical situation and domestic demand progress during the holiday [58]. Pure Benzene - Crude oil provides strong cost support for pure benzene. Although the current market is weak, the future supply - demand pattern is good. It is expected that the price will show a wide - range and strong - trending volatility. Attention should be paid to the Middle - East geopolitical situation and post - holiday demand [61]. Bottle Chips - Crude oil provides strong cost support for bottle chips. The supply and demand are both weak, and the price is expected to follow the raw material end in a wide - range and strong - trending volatility. Attention should be paid to the Middle - East geopolitical situation and crude oil performance [62]. Rubber Series Natural Rubber - Before the festival, natural rubber prices are oscillating strongly. The overseas raw material is in the production - reduction season, and the overall warming of commodities boosts the price. However, the seasonal inventory accumulation may suppress the market during the holiday. It is recommended to hold light long positions during the holiday [66]. Synthetic Rubber - Recently, BR has been oscillating. Before the festival, the supply of butadiene is not significantly replenished, and the market trading is light. It is recommended to hold light or empty positions during the holiday and pay attention to overseas geopolitical events and crude oil trends [66]. Steel - The exchange has raised the margin to 12%. There are risks such as insufficient macro - policy easing, liquidity decline, raw material price fluctuations, and external market linkages. It is recommended to significantly reduce positions to avoid risks during the holiday [73]. Iron Ore - The margin has been increased from 11% to 13%, and the daily limit has been raised from 9% to 11%. There are risks such as high inventory, loose supply - demand, pre - holiday capital withdrawal, and external market fluctuations during the holiday. It is recommended to significantly reduce positions [76]. Coking Coal and Coke - Before the Spring Festival, the coking coal spot trading is relatively sluggish, and the market shows a pattern of weak supply and demand. It is recommended to hold light or empty positions during the holiday and pay attention to post - holiday policies and coal imports [80]. Ferroalloys - Before the Spring Festival, the silicon - iron and manganese - silicon futures continue the pattern of "cost support, weak demand, and interval oscillation". The supply and demand of the two types of ferroalloys are different. It is recommended to hold light positions during the holiday and pay attention to supply - side changes and post - holiday resumption of work [83]. Non - Ferrous Metals Copper - The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in March has been significantly reduced, and the strengthening US dollar will suppress copper prices. There are also risks such as tariff expectations, inventory accumulation, and demand substitution [90]. Aluminum - Before the festival, Shanghai aluminum is oscillating weakly, restricted by high inventory and weak demand. It is recommended to hold light positions, operate cautiously, and conduct intraday trading to avoid overnight risks [92]. Alumina - Before the festival, alumina prices are weakly oscillating, under pressure from cost, supply, and demand. It is recommended to observe cautiously, hold light positions during the holiday, conduct intraday trading, and avoid one - sided short selling [95]. Caustic Soda - Before the festival, the caustic soda price is under pressure, showing a weak - oscillating trend. It is recommended to short on rallies, operate cautiously, and hold light positions during the holiday [98].

•中信证券研报指出，预计鲍威尔任期内将不再降息，沃什担任美联储主席后，下半年基准情形降息1-2 次。沃什不会按特朗普诉求大幅降息，仍以经济基本面为主要决策依据，沃什关注通胀风险但并非绝对 鹰派。 转自：新华财经 •Monex：美联储3月降息的可能性已消除 •华泰证券：预计美联储在6月会议前将暂缓降息 •中信证券：预计鲍威尔任期内将不再降息 【机构分析】 •Monex的宏观研究负责人Nick Rees表示，对于美联储而言，1月美国就业数据表现强劲，"应当能消除 市场对3月降息的押注。"不过，Monex目前仍预计美联储将在6月恢复降息。 •华泰证券研报表示，1月非农数据持续性有待观察，但整体佐证了就业市场逐步改善的判断；维持美联 储在6月前暂停降息，待新主席就任后降息1-2次的判断。往前看，由于通胀整体较为温和，就业数据持 续性存疑，预计美联储在6月会议前仍将暂缓降息，强调观察后续数据再做决策。 •对冲基金正出现明显转向，在"买入日本"交易升温的背景下，加大对日元走强的押注。交易员表示， 即便强劲的美国就业数据削弱了市场对今年美联储降息的预期，日元多头情绪仍在升温。周三，日元相 对美元连续第三个交易日上涨，在美国 ...