能源化工期权 2025-06-03 能源化工期权策略早报 | 卢品先 | 投研经理 | 从业资格号：F3047321 | 交易咨询号：Z0015541 | 邮箱：lupx@wkqh.cn | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 黄柯涵 | 期权研究员 | 从业资格号：F03138607 | 电话：0755-23375252 | 邮箱：huangkh@wkqh.cn | 能源化工期权策略早报概要：能源类：原油、LPG；聚烯烃类期权：聚丙烯、聚氯乙烯、塑料、苯乙烯；聚酯类期 权：对二甲苯、PTA、短纤、瓶片；碱化工类：烧碱、纯碱；其他能源化工类：橡胶等。 策略上：构建卖方为主的期权组合策略以及现货套保或备兑策略增强收益。 表1：标的期货市场概况 | 期权品种 | 标的合约 | 最新价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量 | 量变化 | 持仓量 | 仓变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | （%） | (万手) | | (万手) | | | 原油 | SC2507 | 448 | -1 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the content. 2. Core Views of the Report Crude Oil - International crude oil futures prices have been rising, supported by a weakening US dollar and geopolitical risks. The supply - side OPEC+ production increase has alleviated concerns, but trade frictions suppress demand. After the holiday, the short - term trend depends on the US dollar, geopolitical situation, and supply - demand re - balancing. Unilateral trading can be in a slightly bullish direction, with WTI in the range of [59, 69], Brent [61, 71], and SC [440, 500]. Pay attention to the rebound opportunity of INE spreads and consider buying a straddle option to capture post - holiday volatility [8]. Styrene - In June, the supply - demand of styrene is expected to gradually become looser, and the price remains under pressure. However, due to tight spot circulation, the near - end price may fluctuate. It is advisable to take a short - selling approach [2]. Chlor - Alkali - For caustic soda, short - term spot prices remain strong. Before the fundamentals significantly weaken or warehouse receipts flow out, consider expanding the spread between the near - month and September contracts. For PVC, in the long - term, supply - demand contradictions are prominent. In June, supply pressure is expected to increase, and demand is weak. It is recommended to take a short - selling approach, with an operating range of 4500 - 5000, while also paying attention to macro - level disturbances [30][40]. Urea - The core contradiction of urea lies in high supply and weak demand expectations. Currently, supply is abundant, and demand is in a seasonal off - peak. After the Dragon Boat Festival, the market will test whether agricultural fertilizer procurement can start effectively. If not, it may further pressure the market [44]. Polyolefin - For plastics, there is an expectation of inventory reduction in early June due to increased maintenance and less imports. For PP, supply pressure will increase as maintenance ends. Demand lacks sustainability after a round of replenishment. Unilateral trading for PP can be short - biased at high prices, and the LP spread is expected to widen [46]. Polyester Industry Chain - **PX**: In June, PX supply - demand is expected to be tight, but may weaken after mid - June. It is expected to fluctuate at a high level. Consider short - selling at high levels, gradually exit the PX9 - 1 positive spread, and look for opportunities to narrow the PX - SC spread [50]. - **PTA**: In June, PTA supply - demand remains tight but may weaken in late June. It is expected to fluctuate at a high level. Consider short - selling at high levels and exit the TA9 - 1 positive spread at high prices [50]. - **MEG**: In June, the supply - demand structure of ethylene glycol is good, with inventory reduction expectations. Consider buying EG09 at around 4200 and taking a positive spread for EG9 - 1 [50]. - **Short - fiber**: In June, short - fiber supply - demand is expected to be weak. It is expected to fluctuate at a high level following the cost. Consider expanding the PF July processing fee around 800 [50]. - **Bottle chips**: In June, bottle chip supply - demand is expected to improve, and processing fees will be supported. Consider expanding the processing fee at the lower end of the 350 - 600 yuan/ton range [50]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Crude Oil - **Price and Spread Data**: On June 3, Brent was at $65.12/barrel, WTI at $63.05/barrel. Some spreads such as Brent M1 - M3 and WTI M1 - M3 decreased, while SC M1 - M3 increased. Refined oil prices generally rose, and some cracking spreads decreased [8]. Styrene - **Price and Spread Data**: On May 30, most upstream prices decreased, and some styrene - related prices and spreads also changed. For example, styrene - pure benzene spread decreased by 2.5%. The supply - demand of styrene is expected to loosen in June [2]. Chlor - Alkali - **PVC and Caustic Soda Data**: On May 30, most PVC and caustic soda spot and futures prices were stable or changed slightly. Caustic soda exports had a small profit change, and PVC exports' profit increased significantly. In June, caustic soda maintenance is high, and PVC supply pressure is expected to increase [30][40]. Urea - **Futures and Related Data**: On May 30, most urea futures prices decreased slightly. Supply is high, with daily production increasing, and demand is weak, in a seasonal off - peak [44]. Polyolefin - **PE and PP Data**: On May 30, PE and PP futures prices decreased. Some spreads and basis values changed. In early June, plastics may see inventory reduction, while PP supply pressure will increase later [46]. Polyester Industry Chain - **Price and Spread Data**: On May 30, upstream and downstream prices in the polyester industry chain changed. For example, PX prices decreased, and some polyester product prices and cash - flows also changed. Different products in the polyester chain have different supply - demand and price trends in June [50].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The current oil price is in a high - valuation range, and OPEC's actual production is about to complete an increase, which will suppress the upper limit of oil prices. The oil price has entered a short - selling range on rallies [1]. - The supply pressure of methanol is still large, and the overall supply - demand pattern is weak. It is recommended to focus on short - selling on rallies. For cross - variety, pay attention to the opportunity of going long on the PP - 3MA spread of the 09 contract on dips [3]. - For urea, the current supply remains high, and the demand is tepid. The price is expected to have no obvious trend, so it is recommended to wait and see [3]. - For rubber, the price has broken down. It is recommended to follow the trend, adopt a neutral or bearish mindset, conduct short - term operations, and enter and exit quickly. Pay attention to the band - trading opportunity of going long on RU2601 and shorting on RU2509 [8][11]. - PVC is expected to remain weakly volatile in the short term, but beware of the rebound caused by the non - realization of weak export expectations [13]. - Polyethylene prices may remain volatile in June [15]. - Polypropylene prices are expected to be bearish in June [17]. - PX is expected to slow down inventory reduction in June and re - enter the inventory reduction cycle in the third quarter. It will oscillate at the current valuation level [19]. - PTA will continue to reduce inventory, and the processing fee is supported. It will oscillate at the current valuation level [20][21]. - Ethylene glycol is in the inventory reduction stage, but there is a risk of valuation correction [22]. Summaries by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Quotes**: WTI main crude oil futures rose $2.25, or 3.70%, to $63.04; Brent main crude oil futures rose $1.22, or 1.91%, to $65.12; INE main crude oil futures fell 15.20 yuan, or 3.31%, to 444.1 yuan [1]. - **Data**: China's weekly crude oil data showed that the crude oil arrival inventory increased by 0.43 million barrels to 206.82 million barrels, a month - on - month increase of 0.21%; gasoline commercial inventory decreased by 2.91 million barrels to 84.87 million barrels, a month - on - month decrease of 3.32%; diesel commercial inventory decreased by 3.93 million barrels to 95.35 million barrels, a month - on - month decrease of 3.96%; total refined oil commercial inventory decreased by 6.84 million barrels to 180.22 million barrels, a month - on - month decrease of 3.66% [1]. Methanol - **Market Quotes**: On May 30, the 09 contract fell 10 yuan/ton to 2208 yuan/ton, and the spot price rose 12 yuan/ton, with a basis of +39 [3]. - **Analysis**: The weakening of inland prices and the stabilization of coal have led to a significant decline in corporate profits. With the return of previously shut - down plants, domestic supply will return to a high level, and imports in June will increase significantly. The demand side shows that the port MTO plants have restarted, while traditional demand continues to weaken. Although the decline in methanol has improved the downstream profits, the overall supply - demand pattern is still weak, and there is no upward driving force for the price [3]. Urea - **Market Quotes**: On May 30, the 09 contract fell 11 yuan/ton to 1773 yuan/ton, and the spot price remained unchanged, with a basis of +67 [3]. - **Analysis**: The domestic production has reached a record high and is expected to remain at a high level in the short term. The spot price fluctuates weakly, and corporate profits are low. On the demand side, the summer fertilizer sales of compound fertilizers are coming to an end, with high finished - product inventory pressure. Agricultural demand will gradually increase in the summer, and exports are expected to improve but with a limited range [3]. Rubber - **Market Quotes**: NR and RU fell sharply before the holiday, and Japanese rubber continued to fall during the holiday [7]. - **Analysis**: Bulls believe that the weather, rubber forest conditions, and relevant policies in Southeast Asia, especially Thailand, may contribute to rubber production cuts. Bears think that the macro - economic outlook has deteriorated, demand is weak and in the seasonal off - season, and high rubber prices will stimulate a large amount of new supply throughout the year, and the production cut may be less than expected [8]. - **Data**: As of May 30, 2025, the operating load of all - steel tires of Shandong tire enterprises was 64.78%, 0.16 percentage points lower than last week and 3.91 percentage points higher than the same period last year. The operating load of semi - steel tires of domestic tire enterprises was 77.88%, 0.03 percentage points higher than last week and 2.40 percentage points lower than the same period last year. As of May 18, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 134.2 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.3 tons, or 0.96%. The total social inventory of dark - colored rubber was 81.8 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.5%. The total social inventory of light - colored rubber was 52.4 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.1%. As of May 22, 2025, the natural rubber inventory in Qingdao was 48.93 (- 0.14) tons [9]. PVC - **Market Quotes**: The PVC09 contract rose 20 yuan to 4764 yuan, the spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4680 (+30) yuan/ton, the basis was - 84 (+10) yuan/ton, and the 9 - 1 spread was - 39 (+11) yuan/ton [13]. - **Analysis**: The corporate profit is under great pressure, but the maintenance season is approaching the end, and the future production is expected to increase. There is also an expectation of new plant commissioning. The downstream operating rate is still weak compared with previous years and is entering the off - season, and export orders are weakening. The cost of calcium carbide has decreased, and the valuation support has weakened [13]. Polyethylene - **Market Quotes**: The main contract closed at 7025 yuan/ton, up 53 yuan/ton, the spot price was 7125 yuan/ton, unchanged, the basis was 100 yuan/ton, and it weakened by 53 yuan/ton [15]. - **Analysis**: OPEC+ may announce to maintain the production increase plan of 411,000 barrels per day in July. The upside space of PE valuation is limited. The new production capacity in the second quarter is large, and the supply side may be under pressure. The inventory of the upper and middle reaches is reducing, which has limited support for the price. The seasonal off - season is coming, and the demand for agricultural film orders is decreasing. The short - term contradiction has shifted from the cost - led decline to the supply - side production - commissioning - led decline. There is no new production capacity commissioning plan in June, so the price may remain volatile [15]. Polypropylene - **Market Quotes**: The main contract closed at 6918 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan/ton, the spot price was 7140 yuan/ton, unchanged, the basis was 222 yuan/ton, and it weakened by 25 yuan/ton [17]. - **Analysis**: OPEC+ may announce to maintain the production increase plan of 411,000 barrels per day in July. The spot price has not changed, but the decline is smaller than that of PE. There is a planned production capacity of 2.2 million tons to be put into operation in June, which is the most concentrated month of the year. The downstream operating rate is expected to decline seasonally. The seasonal off - season is coming, so the price is expected to be bearish in June [17]. PX - **Market Quotes**: The PX09 contract fell 170 yuan to 6618 yuan, PX CFR fell 10 dollars to 842 dollars, the basis was 355 yuan (+81), and the 9 - 1 spread was 230 yuan (- 18) [19]. - **Analysis**: The PX maintenance season is coming to an end. It is expected to slow down inventory reduction in June, but re - enter the inventory reduction cycle in the third quarter due to the commissioning of new PTA plants. The terminal textile and clothing exports are expected to be strong during the 90 - day tariff window period, the polyester inventory is still low, and the negative feedback pressure on the raw material side is small. The short - term valuation has risen to a moderately high level and is expected to oscillate at the current valuation [19]. PTA - **Market Quotes**: The PTA09 contract fell 114 yuan to 4700 yuan, the East China spot price fell 5 yuan/ton to 4945 yuan, the basis was 219 yuan (+20), and the 9 - 1 spread was 186 yuan (- 12) [20]. - **Analysis**: The supply side is still in the maintenance season, the polyester inventory pressure on the demand side is small, and it is not expected to cut production significantly. The previous negative feedback expectation has disappeared. PTA will continue to reduce inventory, and the processing fee is supported. The absolute price will oscillate at the current valuation due to the strong PXN [20][21]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Quotes**: The EG09 contract fell 10 yuan to 4349 yuan, the East China spot price rose 12 yuan to 4495 yuan, the basis was 154 (+3), and the 9 - 1 spread was 70 yuan (- 9) [22]. - **Analysis**: The industry fundamentals are still in the inventory reduction stage. Domestic and overseas plants are under maintenance, the downstream operating rate is high, and the arrival volume is low. It is expected that the port inventory will continue to decrease. The terminal exports are strong during the tariff window period, and the polyester inventory pressure is small, so there is no negative feedback pressure. However, due to the large valuation repair and the approaching end of the supply - side maintenance season, there is a risk of valuation correction [22].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a "rebound short" rating for both PE and PP, suggesting a bearish outlook on the market [4][6] Core Viewpoints - The overall supply and demand situation for both PE and PP is weak. New capacity is expected to come online in the coming months, while demand remains sluggish, leading to an oversupply situation [4][6] - The prices of both PE and PP are expected to face downward pressure in the future, with short - term rebounds being opportunities for shorting [4][6] - For PE, the L - PP09 spread is recommended for short - allocation in arbitrage trading; for PP, the PP9 - 1 spread can be considered for long - position when it retraces to a certain level [4][67] Summary by Directory 1. This Month's Review PE - The L2509 fluctuated in the range of [6936 - 7357], with the price first falling and then rising, and the center of gravity moving down. The market reacted to the 10% mutual tariff reduction between China and the US on May 12, but the positive sentiment was short - lived. In May, it was the peak season for PE device maintenance, with the daily average output at 8.8 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.5%. From week 1 to 22, the cumulative year - on - year production of PE, LL, HD, and LD increased by 18%, 28%, 7%, and 20% respectively, indicating high supply pressure for standard products [3] PP - The PP2509 fluctuated in the range of [6846 - 7193], with the price first falling and then rising, and the center of gravity moving down. The market also reacted to the tariff reduction on May 12, but due to weak fundamentals, the upward momentum was insufficient. In May, the intensity of PP device maintenance decreased compared to the previous period, with the daily average output at 10.8 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.5%. From week 1 to 22, the cumulative year - on - year production increased by 17% [5] 2. Next Month's Outlook PE - Supply: From June to July, new devices with a total capacity of 2.05 million tons from ExxonMobil, Shandong New Era, etc., are planned to be put into production. In June, the planned maintenance and restart capacities of PE devices are 2.34 million tons and 1.85 million tons respectively, with the maintenance intensity slightly higher than the restart plan. Currently, the import profit margin of LL has turned negative, and the import pressure has been temporarily relieved, but the overall supply is still under pressure [4] - Demand: The domestic demand for agricultural films is in the seasonal off - season, the downstream start - up data is showing a marginal decline, and the short - term export rush is not sustainable. The inventory of middle - stream traders is at a year - on - year high, and the oversupply pattern remains unchanged [4] - Strategy: With the continuous decline in prices, the short - term market will experience a phased consolidation. However, due to the weak fundamental expectations and the long - term downward expectation of oil prices, it is recommended to short on rebounds. The L2509 is expected to fluctuate in the range of [6800 - 7100]. For arbitrage, short - allocate the L - PP09 spread [4] PP - Supply: The inventory pressure in the PP industry chain is generally neutral in the short term. According to the maintenance plan, the planned maintenance and restart capacities of PP devices in June are 2.42 million tons and 2.43 million tons respectively, with little impact from existing devices. The cost of oil and coal is weak, and the profit has been significantly restored compared to the past two years, so the probability of unexpected device maintenance is low. From June to July, a new round of production peak is coming, with a planned new capacity of 3.25 million tons. Although the low absolute price can stimulate short - term restocking by downstream enterprises, the demand is entering the off - season, and the market expectation is weak [6] - Strategy: The overall supply - demand fundamentals are weak, and the center of gravity of oil prices is expected to continue to decline. It is recommended to short on rebounds. The PP2509 is expected to fluctuate in the range of [6700 - 7050] [6] 3. PE Monthly Data - Price: The closing price of the PE main contract in May was 7025, a month - on - month decrease of 1.4%. The price of Ningxia Coal was 7060, a month - on - month decrease of 3.3%. The main contract basis was 35 yuan/ton (a month - on - month decrease of 143 yuan/ton), and it was moderately high year - on - year [8][11] - Spread: The L9 - 1 spread was 40 yuan/ton (a month - on - month decrease of 26), and it is advisable to go long when it retraces to near the 0 - axis. The L - PP09 spread was 107 yuan/ton (a week - on - week increase of 77 yuan/ton), and in the long run, there is still room for the spread to narrow [13][16] - Position: As of May 29, the position of the PE main contract was 540,000 lots, a month - on - month increase of 10.7% [8] - Inventory: The total inventory in May was 1.652 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.2%. Among them, the enterprise inventory decreased by 5.3%, the social inventory increased by 1.4%, the import inventory increased by 2.5%, and the trader inventory increased by 7.6% [8] 4. PP Monthly Data - Price: The closing price of the PP main contract in May was 6918, a month - on - month decrease of 2.5%. The price of East China Drawing was 7060, a month - on - month decrease of 3.0%. The main contract basis was 142 yuan/ton (a month - on - month decrease of 45) [61] - Spread: The PP9 - 1 spread was 54 yuan/ton (a month - on - month decrease of 10), and it is advisable to go long when it retraces to near 50. The PP - 3MA09 spread was 264 yuan/ton (a month - on - month increase of 6), and the long MTO position can continue to be held [67][70] - Position: As of May 29, the position of the PP main contract was 520,000 lots, a month - on - month increase of 29.8% [61] - Inventory: The total commercial inventory in May was 817,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.4%. Among them, the enterprise inventory decreased by 1.9%, the trader inventory increased by 10.5%, and the port inventory decreased by 8.1% [61] 5. Consumption, Real Estate, and Export - Consumption: From January to April, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of the total retail sales of social consumer goods was 4.7%, showing a "policy - driven recovery." The year - on - year growth rates of household appliances, furniture, and other durable goods exceeded 25%, while the decline of petroleum products reached 5.7% [24][27] - Real Estate: The decline in the completion of real estate projects has widened, and prices have not stopped falling [24][28] - Export: In April, the export value of plastics and products to the US decreased by 23% month - on - month and 27% year - on - year, indicating a significant negative feedback effect of tariffs on exports. The import value of plastics and products from the US increased by 6.9% month - on - month and decreased by 4.7% year - on - year, showing a situation of "rush to import" in China [24][32] 6. PE Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - Capacity: As of now, a total of 2.58 million tons of new capacity has been put into production this year. From June to July, new devices with a total capacity of 2.05 million tons are planned to be put into production, which will bring high supply pressure to the 09 contract [33][35] - Production: The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of production continues to increase, and it is expected to reach 25.1% by the end of the year [34] - Consumption: The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of apparent consumption is also increasing, and it is expected to be around 18.1% by the end of the year [34] - Inventory: The inventory situation shows fluctuations, with different trends in enterprise inventory, social inventory, and petrochemical inventory [34] 7. PP Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - Capacity: As of now, a total of 1.955 million tons of new capacity has been put into production this year. From June to July, a new round of production peak is coming, with a planned new capacity of 3.25 million tons [77][78] - Production: The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of production is increasing, and it is expected to reach 18.1% by the end of the year [78] - Consumption: The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of apparent consumption is also increasing, and it is expected to be around 15.2% by the end of the year [78] - Inventory: The inventory situation shows fluctuations, with different trends in enterprise inventory, trader inventory, and port inventory [78] 8. Propylene Weekly Fundamentals - Price: The price is running at a year - on - year low [106] - Supply: The operating rate of PDH is increasing marginally and is at a year - on - year high [108] - Demand: The operating rate of downstream industries is declining [110] - Cost and Profit: Relevant information about cost and profit is also presented in the report, but detailed numerical analysis is not provided here [116]

Report Information - Report Name: Polyolefin Daily Report [1] - Date: May 30, 2025 [2] Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoint - Polyolefins are expected to operate weakly in the short term, with the contradiction of supply - demand imbalance still existing and there being downward pressure in the medium term. The supply pressure is increasing as the maintenance loss volume declines and new production capacity is expected to be put into operation in June, while the downstream demand is in the off - season with insufficient new orders [6]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Outlook - Linear futures opened lower, fluctuated and then rose, with L2509 closing at 7025 yuan/ton, up 36 yuan/ton (0.52%), with a trading volume of 41.5 lots and an increase in open interest by 11161 to 543284 lots. PP's main contract 09 closed at 6918 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan (0.44%), with an increase in open interest by 635 lots to 521,100 lots. The supply pressure has recovered as the maintenance loss volume decreased and new capacity is expected to be launched in June. The downstream factories' enthusiasm for stockpiling is average, with the operating levels of some industries remaining flat and few new orders. The spot trading atmosphere is general, and the terminal demand has not improved significantly [6]. - Futures market quotations: For plastics, L2601 opened at 6987 yuan/ton, closed at 6944 yuan/ton, down 38 yuan (-0.54%); L2605 opened at 6972 yuan/ton, closed at 6948 yuan/ton, down 47 yuan (-0.67%); L2509 opened at 7005 yuan/ton, closed at 6972 yuan/ton, down 59 yuan (-0.84%). For PP, PP2601 opened at 6851 yuan/ton, closed at 6838 yuan/ton, down 13 yuan (-0.19%); PP2605 opened at 6846 yuan/ton, closed at 6840 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan (-0.29%); PP2509 opened at 6900 yuan/ton, closed at 6893 yuan/ton, unchanged (0.00%) [5]. 2. Industry News - On May 29, 2025, the inventory level of major producers was 750,000 tons, a decrease of 45,000 tons (5.66%) compared with the previous working day, while the inventory was 765,000 tons in the same period last year [7]. - The domestic PP market fluctuated slightly. PP futures rose supported by macro news and crude oil cost, but it had limited impact on the spot market trading atmosphere. Most trade offers were adjusted, and some resources at the end of the month continued to be pre - sold at low prices. The downstream confidence was insufficient and they mainly waited and watched after phased restocking. The mainstream prices of North China drawn wire were 6970 - 7170 yuan/ton, those of East China were 6980 - 7180 yuan/ton, and those of South China were 7050 - 7300 yuan/ton [7]. - The PE market prices showed a mixed trend. In North China, some linear prices decreased by 10 - 70 yuan/ton, some high - pressure prices decreased by 20 - 100 yuan/ton, and some low - pressure prices decreased by 20 - 100 yuan/ton. In East China, linear and high - pressure prices increased or decreased by 10 - 100 yuan/ton, and low - pressure prices increased or decreased slightly by 10 - 50 yuan/ton. In South China, linear, high - pressure and low - pressure prices increased or decreased by 10 - 50 yuan/ton. The LLDPE prices in North China were 7030 - 7350 yuan/ton, those in East China were 7200 - 7550 yuan/ton, and those in South China were 7250 - 7600 yuan/ton [7]. 3. Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including L basis, PP basis, L - PP spread, crude oil futures main contract settlement price, two - oil inventory and its year - on - year increase or decrease rate, with data sources from Wind and Zhuochuang Information, as well as the research and development department of CCB Futures [9][13][17]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall view of the energy - chemical products market is that most varieties are expected to show a volatile trend. For example, crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, polyester, rubber, methanol, polyolefins, and polyvinyl chloride are all rated as "volatile" [1][3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Wednesday, the price center of oil rose. WTI July contract closed up $0.95 to $61.84 per barrel, a 1.56% increase; Brent July contract closed up $0.81 to $64.9 per barrel, a 1.26% increase; SC2507 closed at 457.4 yuan per barrel, up 3.8 yuan per barrel, a 0.84% increase. OPEC+ did not adjust production policy on Wednesday but agreed to set a benchmark for 2027 oil production. There is a possibility of accelerated production increase in July. API data showed that US crude and gasoline inventories decreased last week while distillate inventories increased [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: On Wednesday, the main fuel oil contract FU2507 on the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose 0.13% to 2986 yuan per ton, and the low - sulfur fuel oil contract LU2507 fell 1.03% to 3469 yuan per ton. In April 2025, China's fuel oil production was 3.563 million tons, down 8.73% month - on - month and up 2.86% year - on - year. In May, sales are expected to rise steadily. The Asian high - sulfur market will remain strong in the short term, but the demand for high - sulfur raw materials from refineries is still suppressed [3]. - **Asphalt**: On Wednesday, the main asphalt contract BU2507 on the Shanghai Futures Exchange fell 0.91% to 3481 yuan per ton. This week, the total inventory level of domestic refineries was 30.39%, up 0.08% from last week; the social inventory rate was 34.59%, down 0.24% from last week; the total operating rate of domestic asphalt plants was 30.49%, up 1.49% from last week. The short - term supply pressure of refineries is limited, but production may increase. The demand in the south is expected to be lower than expected due to the rainy season [3]. - **Polyester**: TA509 closed at 4672 yuan per ton, down 1.43%; EG2509 closed at 4311 yuan per ton, down 1.73%. A 400,000 - ton/year synthetic gas - to - ethylene glycol plant in Shaanxi reduced production for maintenance. The expected arrival volume at the main port of ethylene glycol this week is low. Downstream polyester manufacturers plan to cut production, and polyester prices are expected to fluctuate with the cost [5]. - **Rubber**: On Wednesday, the main rubber contract RU2509 fell 690 yuan per ton to 13805 yuan per ton, NR fell 670 yuan per ton to 12245 yuan per ton, and butadiene rubber BR fell 495 yuan per ton to 11150 yuan per ton. From January to April, Vietnam's total exports of natural rubber and mixed rubber decreased by 5.9% year - on - year. The rubber market shows a volatile trend [5]. - **Methanol**: The supply of methanol has decreased due to increased domestic plant maintenance but remains at a high level in the past five years. Overseas plant operation rates have decreased, but short - term arrivals are recovering. MTO plant operation rates have increased, and port and inland inventories are at low levels. Methanol prices are expected to remain volatile [7]. - **Polyolefins**: The mainstream price of East China drawn wire is 7000 - 7250 yuan per ton. The upstream is under maintenance, and the overall supply pressure is not large. Downstream enterprises are increasing raw material purchases, and inventories are decreasing. However, both inventory and supply are at relatively high levels, and polyolefin prices are expected to remain volatile [7]. - **Polyvinyl Chloride**: On Wednesday, PVC prices in East, North, and South China decreased. Supply is expected to increase as maintenance devices resume operation. Domestic real estate construction is stable, and the operating rates of pipes and profiles remain relatively stable. PVC prices are expected to be volatile and weak [9]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the spot price, futures price, basis, basis rate, and other data of various energy - chemical products on May 29, 2025, including crude oil, liquefied petroleum gas, asphalt, fuel oil, methanol, etc. [10] 3.3 Market News - API data showed that last week, US crude and gasoline inventories decreased while distillate inventories increased. As of the week of May 23, US crude inventories decreased by 4.24 million barrels, gasoline inventories decreased by 528,000 barrels, and distillate inventories increased by 1.3 million barrels [12]. - The Iraqi oil minister urged member states to comply with the agreement reached at the OPEC meeting, emphasizing the importance of unity for market stability [12] 3.4 Chart Analysis - **4.1 Main Contract Prices**: The report presents the historical closing price charts of the main contracts of various energy - chemical products from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, LPG, PTA, etc. [14][15] - **4.2 Main Contract Basis**: It shows the historical basis charts of the main contracts of various energy - chemical products, such as crude oil, fuel oil, and asphalt [31] - **4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads**: The report provides the historical spread charts of different contracts of various energy - chemical products, including fuel oil, asphalt, PTA, etc. [47] - **4.4 Inter - variety Spreads**: It presents the historical spread and ratio charts between different varieties of energy - chemical products, such as crude oil internal and external spreads, fuel oil high - low sulfur spreads, etc. [63] - **4.5 Production Profits**: The report shows the historical production profit charts of some energy - chemical products, such as ethylene - to - ethylene glycol and PP [72] 3.5 Team Member Introduction - The report introduces the members of the energy - chemical research team, including the director, analysts for different product categories, and their educational backgrounds, honors, and professional experiences [77][78][79]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report Crude Oil - Overnight oil prices rose slightly, maintaining a range - bound trend. The market is influenced by macro - geopolitical factors and supply marginal increments. The US trade court's ruling on Trump's global tariff policy and potential sanctions on Russia, along with OPEC + supply policies, are key factors. Demand is constrained by global trade frictions. Short - term, oil prices are expected to remain volatile, and breakthroughs require clarity on OPEC + production decisions and EU - US tariff games. Mid - to long - term, a band - trading strategy is recommended, and short - term, there are opportunities to short on rebounds. Suggested price ranges are [59, 69] for WTI, [61, 71] for Brent, and [440, 500] for SC. Attention should be paid to INE spread rebound opportunities and options to buy volatility during range - bound periods [2]. PVC and Caustic Soda - Caustic Soda: In the short term, supply pressure is limited during the concentrated maintenance period. Demand from the alumina industry is expected to increase due to profit improvement and new production lines. However, non - aluminum demand pressure and cost decline pose risks. It is recommended to wait and see on single - side trades and attempt a 6 - 9 spread long position [7]. - PVC: Recently, PVC has been weak due to poor market sentiment. Fundamentally, long - term contradictions are prominent as real - estate demand remains sluggish, and exports face potential negative impacts. In the near term, supply pressure is limited during the maintenance period, and exports may remain positive due to BIS extension. PVC is expected to remain weak in the short term, and a mid - term short - selling strategy is recommended with resistance around 5100 for the 09 contract [7]. Polyolefins (PE and PP) - Spot prices continue to fall, but trading volume has improved. The overall market sentiment is pessimistic. For PE, maintenance will increase before early June, imports are low, and inventory is expected to decrease. For PP, supply pressure will increase after the maintenance peak in late May. Demand lacks sustainability after a round of restocking. It is recommended to short PP on rallies and expect the LP spread to widen [12]. Styrene - After the styrene delivery, short - covering cooled down, and the basis declined. The weak commodity market and inventory increases of pure benzene and styrene at the docks put downward pressure on the pure benzene market. The new - cycle port inventory of styrene has started to accumulate, increasing the pressure on high - price supplies. In the medium term, the low - profit situation of 3S products provides limited support for styrene, and Sino - US tariff disputes will negatively affect terminal demand. However, the overnight crude oil rebound may impact the chemical market. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and be bearish on styrene in the medium term [18]. Urea - The market is currently weak due to increased inventory pressure during the demand lull. If export - reserved inventory cannot be quickly digested, it will further intensify spot pressure. Urea exports are a potential turning point, depending on Middle East and South American procurement demand and export policies. If orders exceed expectations, inventory pressure may be relieved; otherwise, the market will remain loose [26]. Polyester Industry Chain - PX: Supply is increasing as some domestic and foreign devices resume production. Downstream PTA load is rising, and the short - term supply - demand situation is still good. Spot supplies are tight, and foreign buyers are supporting prices. PX is expected to oscillate between 6500 - 6800 in the short term, with strong support at the lower end. A 9 - 1 spread short position can be attempted, and the PX - SC spread can be narrowed [29]. - PTA: In late May, PTA devices restarted, and the supply - demand situation is weakening due to strong polyester factory减产 sentiment. Cost support is limited, but low processing fees provide some support. PTA is expected to oscillate between 4600 - 4800 in the short term, with strong support at the lower end. A 9 - 1 spread short position is recommended [29]. - Ethylene Glycol: Despite polyester减产 expectations, supply is expected to contract due to domestic and overseas device maintenance. Port inventory is decreasing, and de - stocking may accelerate in June. It is recommended to wait and see on single - side trades and attempt a 9 - 1 spread long position [29]. - Short - fiber: Processing fees are under pressure, and some factories plan to reduce production. Raw material PTA supply - demand is weakening. Short - fiber processing fees may recover, and the absolute price will follow raw materials. Attention should be paid to factory production cuts. The strategy is similar to PTA for single - side trades, and processing fees can be widened at low levels [29]. - Bottle - grade PET: Supply is expected to increase, but demand from the downstream soft - drink industry will rise during the peak consumption season. The short - term supply - demand contradiction is not significant. The absolute price will follow raw materials, and attention should be paid to device operation under low processing fees. The strategy is similar to PTA for single - side trades, and processing fees are expected to range between 350 - 550 yuan/ton, with opportunities to widen at the lower end [29]. Methanol - Fundamentally, inland methanol has a downward valuation pressure. After the spring maintenance, production has increased, and downstream profits are differentiated. The port has entered a inventory - accumulation period, with May imports expected to reach 110 million tons. Iranian supply increments and positive import profits strengthen arrival expectations. MTO low - operation restricts demand, and the 09 contract is under pressure. It is recommended to short the MA09 contract on rallies, as the mid - to long - term supply - demand contradiction remains unresolved, and the rebound space is limited under inventory - accumulation expectations [38][40]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Crude Oil - **Prices and Spreads**: Brent crude rose to $65.31/barrel, WTI to $62.31/barrel, and SC to 457.40 yuan/barrel. Some spreads, such as Brent M1 - M3 and WTI M1 - M3, also increased [2]. - **Product Oil**: Prices of NYM RBOB, NYM ULSD, and ICE Gasoil increased slightly. Some spreads, like RBOB M1 - M3 and ULSD M1 - M3, decreased [2]. - **Cracking Spreads**: Cracking spreads of some refined products, such as US gasoline and Singapore gasoline, decreased [2]. PVC and Caustic Soda - **PVC**: Spot and futures prices of PVC decreased. Some spreads, like V2505 - 2509, also changed. Overseas quotes were stable, and export profits increased significantly [6][7]. - **Caustic Soda**: Domestic prices were stable, overseas quotes increased, and export profits turned positive [6]. - **Supply and Demand**: Caustic soda industry and some downstream industries'开工 rates increased, while PVC开工 rates decreased slightly. Inventories of both products decreased [6][7]. Polyolefins - **Prices and Spreads**: PE and PP futures and spot prices decreased. Some spreads, such as L2505 - 2509 and PP2505 - 2509, changed [11]. - **Supply and Demand**: PE device开工 rate decreased, PP device and powder开工 rates increased slightly, and downstream weighted开工 rates increased. PE and PP enterprise inventories decreased [11][12]. Styrene - **Upstream Prices**: Prices of Brent crude, CFR Japan naphtha, and some other upstream products changed. Pure benzene prices decreased [15]. - **Styrene Prices**: Styrene spot and futures prices decreased, the basis increased, and the spread decreased [16]. - **Overseas Quotes and Profits**: Overseas quotes decreased slightly, and import profits increased significantly [17]. - **Supply and Demand**: Domestic pure benzene综合开工率 increased, styrene开工率 decreased, and some downstream products'开工 rates changed. Inventories of pure benzene and styrene increased [18]. Urea - **Futures and Spot Prices**: Futures prices decreased slightly, and some spot prices increased. Some spreads and basis values changed [21][25]. - **Supply and Demand**: Daily and weekly production of urea increased, factory inventory increased, and port inventory remained stable [26]. Polyester Industry Chain - **Upstream Prices**: Prices of Brent crude, CFR Japan naphtha, and other upstream products changed. PX prices decreased [29]. - **Polyester Product Prices**: Prices of POY, FDY, and other polyester products were stable or decreased slightly. Cash flows of some products changed [29]. - **Supply and Demand**: PTA开工率 increased, MEG综合开工率 decreased, and polyester综合开工率 decreased slightly [29]. Methanol - **Prices and Spreads**: Futures prices of methanol decreased, and some spreads and basis values changed. Spot prices in different regions also changed [38]. - **Supply and Demand**: Enterprise and port inventories of methanol increased, upstream and some downstream开工 rates changed [38].

1. Report Information - Report Title: Polyolefin Daily Report [1] - Report Date: May 29, 2025 [2] 2. Research Team - Energy and Chemical Research Team: Peng Jinglin (Polyolefins), Li Jie (Crude Oil and Fuel Oil), Ren Junchi (PTA, MEG), Peng Haozhou (Urea, Industrial Silicon), Liu Youran (Pulp), Feng Zeren (Glass and Soda Ash) [4] 3. Market Quotes Summary | Variety | Open | Close | High | Low | Change | Change Rate | Position | Position Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Plastic 2601 | 6987 | 6944 | 6987 | 6935 | -38 | -0.54% | 99182 | 1788 | | Plastic 2605 | 6972 | 6948 | 6981 | 6938 | -47 | -0.67% | 457 | 30 | | Plastic 2509 | 7005 | 6972 | 7013 | 6961 | -59 | -0.84% | 532123 | 4902 | | PP2601 | 6851 | 6838 | 6860 | 6823 | -13 | -0.19% | 76075 | 3830 | | PP2605 | 6846 | 6840 | 6874 | 6840 | -20 | -0.29% | 316 | 3 | | PP2509 | 6900 | 6893 | 6910 | 6871 | 0 | 0.00% | 520503 | -4691 | [5] 4. Market Review and Outlook - Linear futures opened lower, fluctuated, and closed down. L2509 closed at 6972 yuan/ton, down 59 yuan/ton (-0.84%), with 34 lots traded and positions increasing by 4902 to 532123 lots. PP's main 09 contract closed at 6893 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with positions decreasing by 4691 to 520,500 lots [6]. - On the supply side, the maintenance loss decreased month-on-month. As previously shut - down plants restarted, supply pressure resumed, and there were expectations of new capacity coming online in June [6]. - Downstream factories' enthusiasm for stocking was average. The operating levels of some industries were basically flat, and new orders were scarce. With supply pressure and a lack of new orders during the off - season, futures opened lower and fluctuated downwards, dampening trading sentiment. Traders had difficulty selling and offered discounts. Downstream buyers were cautious and mainly made small - volume purchases. Polyolefins are expected to be weak in the short term, and there is still downward pressure in the medium term [6]. 5. Industry News - On May 28, 2025, the inventory level of major producers was 795,000 tons, a decrease of 25,000 tons (-3.05%) from the previous working day. The inventory in the same period last year was 800,000 tons [7]. - The domestic PP market was weakly sorted, with a range of 10 - 30 yuan/ton. PP futures' weak fluctuations provided little guidance to the spot market. Some holders loosened their quotes to focus on sales. Downstream new orders were insufficient, and buyers were cautious and bought at low prices. The actual trading atmosphere was poor, and the trading volume was limited. The mainstream price of North China's drawstring PP was 6960 - 7180 yuan/ton, East China's was 6980 - 7180 yuan/ton, and South China's was 7060 - 7300 yuan/ton [7]. - PE market prices continued to fall. In North China, some linear PE prices dropped by 10 - 100 yuan/ton, some high - pressure PE prices dropped by 20 - 100 yuan/ton, and some low - pressure PE prices dropped by 20 - 80 yuan/ton. In East China, linear, high - pressure, and low - pressure PE prices dropped by 10 - 100 yuan/ton. In South China, some low - pressure PE prices fluctuated by 10 - 80 yuan/ton, and linear and high - pressure PE prices dropped by 20 - 100 yuan/ton. The LLDPE price in North China was 7000 - 7350 yuan/ton, in East China was 7200 - 7600 yuan/ton, and in South China was 7250 - 7600 yuan/ton [7]. 6. Data Overview - The report includes figures such as L basis, PP basis, L - PP spread, crude oil futures main contract settlement price, two - oil inventories, and two - oil inventory year - on - year increase/decrease rate, with data sources from Wind and Zhuochuang Information [9][17][19]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall oil price will continue to fluctuate weakly in the short - term, and attention should be paid to the latest developments of the OPEC meeting [1]. - The fuel oil market will fluctuate. The Asian high - sulfur market will remain firm in the short - term, but the demand for high - sulfur raw materials from refineries is still suppressed. The previous positions of the LU - FU spread can be gradually closed for profit [3]. - The asphalt market will fluctuate. The upward space of asphalt is limited, and there is a risk of inventory accumulation. A strategy of shorting the far - month cracking spread can be considered [3][5]. - The polyester market will fluctuate. The PX price and PXN have support at the bottom, and attention should be paid to the supply pressure relief brought by the increase in PX restart. The short - term PTA basis is strongly volatile, and the ethylene glycol price can be considered to be in a strong - oscillating trend [5][7]. - The rubber market will fluctuate. The rubber price shows a weakly - oscillating trend, and the butadiene rubber price is under pressure [7]. - The methanol market will fluctuate. The methanol price is expected to maintain an oscillating trend [8]. - The polyolefin market will fluctuate. The polyolefin is expected to maintain an oscillating trend, but there is still pressure on the valuation [8]. - The PVC market will fluctuate weakly. As the devices gradually resume production, the PVC price is expected to fluctuate weakly [9]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Tuesday, the oil price center declined. OPEC + may agree to further accelerate oil production increases. The US - Iran nuclear negotiation has no obvious progress, and the market's concern about supply has eased. The short - term oil price will continue to fluctuate weakly [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: On Tuesday, the main fuel oil contracts showed different trends. The Singapore marine fuel sales in April had a certain change. In May, the sales are expected to rise steadily. The Asian high - sulfur market is strong in the short - term, but the refinery's demand for high - sulfur raw materials is restricted [3]. - **Asphalt**: On Tuesday, the main asphalt contract rose slightly. The domestic asphalt production in June is expected to decline slightly month - on - month and increase year - on - year. The short - term supply pressure of refineries is limited, but the demand may be lower than expected [3]. - **Polyester**: On Tuesday, the polyester - related contracts had different price changes. Multiple PX devices have plans for load increase or restart. The polyester start - up rate is high, and the PX price and PXN have support at the bottom [5]. - **Rubber**: On Tuesday, the rubber - related contracts rose. The Sino - Thai zero - tariff negotiation has not reached a final result, the supply - side raw material price has fallen, and the butadiene rubber price is under pressure [7]. - **Methanol**: On Tuesday, the methanol - related prices are given. The domestic methanol supply has decreased due to increased device maintenance, but it is still at a high level in the past 5 years. The methanol price is expected to oscillate [8]. - **Polyolefin**: On Tuesday, the polyolefin - related prices and profits are provided. The upstream maintenance is high, the supply pressure is not large, and the downstream inventory is decreasing. The polyolefin is expected to oscillate [8]. - **Polyvinyl Chloride**: On Tuesday, the PVC market prices in different regions decreased. The supply is expected to increase as the maintenance devices resume, and the demand is relatively stable. The PVC price is expected to fluctuate weakly [9]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the spot price, futures price, basis, basis rate, and their changes of various energy - chemical varieties on May 27 and May 26, 2025, as well as the historical data of basis rate changes and other information [10]. 3.3 Market News - A preliminary survey shows that the US crude oil, distillate, and gasoline inventories may increase last week [12]. - Norway's oil and gas industry investment will reach a record high this year, with an estimated total investment of $26.6 billion, a 6% increase from the previous quarter's forecast [12]. 3.4 Chart Analysis - **4.1 Main Contract Prices**: The report presents the closing price charts of main contracts of various energy - chemical varieties from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, etc. [14][15][18] - **4.2 Main Contract Basis**: It shows the basis charts of main contracts of various energy - chemical varieties from 2021 to 2025, such as crude oil, fuel oil, etc. [31][36][43] - **4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads**: The report provides the spread charts of different contracts of various energy - chemical varieties, including fuel oil, asphalt, etc. [46][48][54] - **4.4 Inter - variety Spreads**: It presents the spread charts of different varieties of energy - chemical products, such as crude oil internal and external markets, fuel oil high - low sulfur, etc. [61][63][65] - **4.5 Production Profits**: The report shows the production profit charts of some energy - chemical products, such as ethylene - based ethylene glycol, PP, etc. [70]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Crude Oil - Overnight international oil prices rose slightly, but the market lacks strong drivers. The main logic is the dynamic game between OPEC+ production - increase expectations and Russia - sanction risks. - In the short - term, observe opportunities to short on rebounds. WTI is expected to fluctuate in the range of [59, 69], Brent in [61, 71], and SC in [440, 500]. In the medium - to - long - term, adopt a band - trading strategy. [2] Methanol - The inland methanol market has downward valuation pressure. After the spring maintenance, production has recovered, and downstream profits are divided. The port has entered a inventory - accumulation period. - Suggest to short MA09 contract on rallies. [5] LLDPE and PP - Spot prices continue to fall, and overall trading is weak. LLDPE has inventory - reduction expectations before early June, while PP will face increasing supply pressure after late May. - Short PP on rallies; the LP spread is expected to widen. [9] Urea - The urea market is expected to fluctuate between 1800 - 1900 yuan/ton around the Dragon Boat Festival. Pay attention to signals such as wheat - harvest progress in northern Anhui, port pre - collection scale, and the operating rate of Shanxi's fixed - bed plants. [19] Styrene - The pure benzene market price is weak, but there is an expected turnaround as styrene plants resume operation. - The styrene port inventory has started to accumulate, and the 3S products have limited driving force. Adopt a short - selling strategy for near - month contracts. [30] Polyester Industry - **PX**: Supply is increasing, but short - term support is strong. Consider a long - position around 6600 and a short - spread between PX9 - 1. - **PTA**: Supply - demand is weakening, but support is strong at low processing fees. Pay attention to polyester production cuts. Consider a long - position around 4600 and a short - spread between TA9 - 1. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Supply is expected to contract, and inventory is decreasing. Adopt a wait - and - see strategy for single - side trading and a long - spread strategy for EG9 - 1. - **Short - fiber**: Processing fees may recover. Follow PTA's single - side strategy and expand the processing - fee spread. - **Bottle - chip**: Supply and demand are both increasing. Follow PTA's single - side strategy and expand the processing - fee spread in the 350 - 550 yuan/ton range. [34] Chlor - alkali Industry - **Caustic Soda**: Short - term supply pressure is limited, and demand from the alumina industry is expected to increase. However, there are risks from non - aluminum demand and high valuations. Adopt a wait - and - see strategy for single - side trading and a long - spread strategy for 6 - 9 contracts. - **PVC**: The market is weak due to poor sentiment. Long - term contradictions are prominent, but short - term supply pressure is limited. Adopt a wait - and - see strategy for single - side trading and a short - selling strategy for the 09 contract above 5100. [39][40] 3. Summary by Catalog Crude Oil - **Prices and Spreads**: Brent decreased by 0.65 to 64.09 dollars/barrel (-1.00%); WTI increased by 0.35 to 61.24 dollars/barrel (0.57%); SC decreased by 3.90 to 453.50 yuan/barrel (-0.85%). [2] - **Product Prices and Spreads**: NYM RBOB increased by 0.40 to 207.55 cents/gallon (0.19%); NYM ULSD increased by 0.50 to 208.44 cents/gallon (0.24%); ICE Gasoil decreased by 3.75 to 606.00 dollars/ton (-0.62%). [2] - **Product Crack Spreads**: Most crack spreads showed small changes, with some increasing and some decreasing. [2] Methanol - **Prices and Spreads**: MA2505 decreased by 64 to 2229 yuan/ton (-2.79%); the MA2505 - 2509 spread decreased by 48 to 21 yuan/ton (-69.57%). - **Inventory**: Methanol enterprise inventory decreased by 0.2 to 33.401% (-0.52%); port inventory increased by 0.6 to 49.0 million tons (1.34%). - **Operating Rates**: The upstream domestic enterprise operating rate decreased by 1.0 to 74.51% (-1.31%); the downstream external - procurement MTO device operating rate increased by 7.9 to 83.54% (10.39%). [5] LLDPE and PP - **Prices and Spreads**: L2505 decreased by 73 to 6986 yuan/ton (-1.03%); PP2509 decreased by 33 to 6896 yuan/ton (-0.48%). - **Operating Rates**: PE device operating rate decreased by 1.43 to 78.0% (-1.80%); PP device operating rate increased by 0.28 to 76.8% (0.4%). - **Inventory**: PE enterprise inventory decreased by 2.94 to 49.8 million tons (-5.57%); PP enterprise inventory decreased by 1.12 to 59.3 million tons (-1.85%). [9] Urea - **Futures Prices**: 01, 05, and 09 contracts all showed slight decreases. - **Raw Material and Production Costs**: Most raw material prices were stable, with synthetic ammonia decreasing by 50 to 2120 yuan/ton (-2.30%). - **Supply and Demand**: Domestic urea daily production increased by 0.30 to 20.48 million tons (1.49%); factory inventory increased by 10.02 to 91.74 million tons (12.26%). [14][17][19] Styrene - **Upstream Prices**: Brent crude oil (July) decreased by 0.6 to 64.1 dollars/barrel (-1.0%); CFR Japan naphtha increased by 1.0 to 567.0 dollars/ton (0.2%). - **Spot and Futures Prices**: Styrene's East - China spot price increased by 75 to 7900 yuan/ton (1.0%); EB2506 decreased by 28 to 7313 yuan/ton (-0.4%). - **Inventory and Operating Rates**: Pure benzene port inventory increased by 0.5 to 12.8 million tons (4.1%); styrene port inventory decreased by 1.8 to 7.5 million tons (-19.0%). [27][28][30] Polyester Industry - **Raw Material Prices**: Brent crude oil (July) decreased by 0.65 to 64.09 dollars/barrel (-1.0%); CFR Japan naphtha increased by 1.0 to 567.0 dollars/ton (0.2%). - **Product Prices and Cash Flows**: POY150/48 price remained at 6990 yuan/ton; polyester bottle - chip price decreased by 81 to 5941 yuan/ton (-1.3%). - **Operating Rates**: Asian PX operating rate increased by 1.9 to 69.4% (2.8%); polyester comprehensive operating rate increased by 1.1 to 95.0% (1.2%). [34] Chlor - alkali Industry - **Spot and Futures Prices**: Shandong 32% liquid caustic soda (converted to 100%) increased by 62.5 to 2750 yuan/ton (2.3%); East - China calcium - carbide - based PVC market price decreased by 60 to 4700 yuan/ton (-1.3%). - **Supply and Demand**: Caustic soda industry operating rate increased by 1.1 to 86.9% (1.3%); PVC total operating rate decreased by 0.9 to 73.1% (-1.2%). - **Inventory**: Liquid caustic soda East - China factory inventory decreased by 0.4 to 19.1 million tons (-1.9%); PVC total social inventory decreased by 2.0 to 37.8 million tons (-4.9%). [39][40]