Core Viewpoint - The macroeconomic atmosphere remains cautious, leading to continued low fluctuations in crude oil futures prices, with expectations for a reduction in retail fuel prices due to negative changes in crude oil reference rates [1] Oil Market Analysis - The reference crude oil change rate as of October 23 is -6.93%, indicating an expected reduction of 300 yuan per ton for gasoline and diesel, with the adjustment window set for October 27 at 24:00 [1] - Kuwait's statement about potentially canceling production cuts to address any oil shortages suggests that actual supply disruptions are unlikely, reducing market anxiety and indicating a risk of oil price decline [1] - With only one working day left before the price adjustment, it is highly probable that the negative fluctuation in the change rate will persist, leading to a likely downward adjustment in retail fuel prices [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report Polyester Sector - In the short - term, although the cost center has shifted upwards, the supply - demand drivers are insufficient, and the polyester sector's enthusiasm to follow the rise in crude oil is limited. Attention should be paid to geopolitical situation changes. - In the medium - to - long - term, the expected increase in supply and the non - significant peak demand characteristics put pressure on the polyester sector as a whole [30][31] Methanol Sector - In the short - term, the supply side is slightly shrinking, the high - inventory problem at ports remains unsolved, and the upward space is limited. MTO is still the main demand force, but the recent losses have intensified, and the traditional downstream performs poorly. Methanol is mainly in a short - term range - bound oscillation due to coal cost support. - In the medium - to - long - term, the inflection point of port inventory is the core point of the market. Attention should be paid to the reduction in imports caused by the implementation of gas restrictions in Iran. If the medium - to - long - term signals are positive, methanol may rebound [49] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Polyester Sector Macro and Crude Oil News - The US plans to sanction two major Russian oil companies, and the EU has passed the 19th round of sanctions against Russia. Russia believes these sanctions will not achieve the expected results. - US commercial crude, gasoline, and distillate inventories decreased in the week ending October 17, indicating resilient energy demand. - Chinese Vice - Premier He Lifeng will lead a delegation to Malaysia for economic and trade consultations with the US from October 24 - 27 [5][6][7] Futures and Spot Prices - Futures prices of WTI crude, PX, TA, EG, PF, and PR all increased week - on - week, with WTI crude rising 7.65%. Spot prices of related products also generally increased. - PX, PTA, and other product bases showed different degrees of change, with PX base increasing by 192.58% [9] Supply - Side Situation - **PX**: Urumqi Petrochemical plans to restart on October 29, and Asian PX load has slightly declined. This week, domestic PX production decreased, and next week's supply is expected to increase slightly. - **PTA**: Hengli Petrochemical's 220 - million - ton No. 1 device restarted on October 24, and this week's domestic PTA production increased, with social inventory decreasing. - **Ethylene Glycol**: This week, domestic ethylene glycol production slightly increased, but the load decreased. Next week, due to device overhauls, supply will slightly decrease, and port inventory decreased this week [14][17][18] Demand - Side Situation - The average weekly polyester start - up rate decreased by 0.25 percentage points. Short - fiber inventory increased slightly, and long - fiber inventory decreased during the week. - As of October 24, the start - up rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms increased, the number of orders from Chinese weaving sample enterprises increased, and the inventory days of grey cloth decreased [19][22][28] Methanol Sector Price Trends - The futures price of MA2601 decreased by 2.03%, and the base decreased by 45.45%. The spot price of methanol in Taicang increased by 2.99%, and the methanol CFR decreased by 1.04%. The prices of downstream products such as formaldehyde and glacial acetic acid generally decreased [33] Cost and Profit - This week, the profits of coal - based and coke - oven gas - based methanol production decreased, and natural - gas - based production continued to lose money. The overall demand - side profit of methanol declined significantly, and production enterprises suffered serious losses [39] Supply - Side Situation - As of October 23, the methanol start - up rate was 85.65%, a decrease of 1.75 percentage points, and the output was 194.35 million tons, a decrease of 2%. This week, the number of overhauled devices was greater than that of resumed devices. Next week, some devices plan to resume production, and there are no new overhaul plans [42][49] Demand - Side Situation - Affected by profit compression, the overall demand start - up load continued to weaken. MTO is still the main downstream demand force, with a load fluctuating around 91%. Traditional downstream industries performed poorly, and it is expected that MTO will continue to decline next week [45][49] Inventory Situation - As of October 22, port inventory was 151.22 million tons, an increase of 1.4%, and inland inventory was 36.04 million tons, an increase of 0.13%. Port inventory slightly increased, and inland inventory also increased slightly [48][49]

Core Viewpoint - The recent sanctions imposed by the U.S. on Russia's largest oil companies are expected to have observable effects in six months, as stated by both U.S. President Trump and Russian officials [1][3][5]. Group 1: U.S. Sanctions - The U.S. announced sanctions on Russia's two largest oil companies, Rosneft and Lukoil, urging an immediate ceasefire in Ukraine [3]. - The sanctions are part of a broader strategy to pressure Russia, but the Russian government claims they will not have a significant impact on its economy [3][5]. Group 2: Russian Response - Russian President Putin characterized the U.S. sanctions as unfriendly and counterproductive to improving U.S.-Russia relations, emphasizing the importance of dialogue [3]. - Russian officials, including spokesperson Zakharova, assert that Russia has developed resilience against sanctions and will continue to pursue its economic and political goals despite external pressures [5].

Core Viewpoint - The recent rally in the oil sector is primarily driven by significant sanctions imposed by the US on major Russian oil producers, which could potentially lead to a loss of 1.5 to 2.5 million barrels per day in oil supply [2][4]. Group 1: Sanctions Impact - The sanctions announced are the most meaningful since the onset of the war, leading to a notable increase in oil prices from below $58 to approximately $62.37 per barrel [1][2]. - If the sanctions are fully enforced, the price of oil could rise significantly, potentially reaching the $80 range, depending on the actual volume of oil lost [5][8]. - The market remains skeptical about the enforcement of these sanctions, as previous sanctions have not been effectively implemented [3][4]. Group 2: Market Reactions - There is a belief that workarounds will be found, which may mitigate the impact of the sanctions on oil supply in the long term [5][6]. - Despite the current price increase, traders are cautious and do not expect the rally to last, citing an oversupplied market projected for 2026 [16][17]. - The skepticism in the market is reflected in traders' attitudes, who are not fully convinced that the price rally will be sustained [15][16]. Group 3: Global Dynamics - The enforcement of sanctions is crucial, as companies in countries like India and China may have significant US business ties that discourage them from circumventing these sanctions [11][12]. - The EU's coordinated response to the sanctions indicates a collective effort, although there are concerns about the impact on energy prices within Europe [13][14]. - The US administration's stance on low oil prices contrasts with the potential for higher energy costs resulting from these sanctions, contributing to market skepticism [15].

Market Overview - US stock index futures are all up ahead of the market opening, with Dow futures up 0.16%, S&P 500 futures up 0.33%, and Nasdaq futures up 0.50% [1] - European indices are showing slight declines, with Germany's DAX down 0.11%, UK's FTSE 100 down 0.06%, France's CAC40 down 0.57%, and the Euro Stoxx 50 down 0.20% [1] Oil Prices - WTI crude oil is up 0.60% at $62.16 per barrel, while Brent crude oil is up 0.55% at $66.35 per barrel [2] Economic Data - The US September CPI report is highly anticipated, with economists predicting a month-on-month increase of 0.4% and a year-on-year increase of 3.1%, which is a 0.2 percentage point rise from August [3] - Core CPI, excluding food and energy, is expected to rise 0.3% month-on-month and remain at 3.1% year-on-year, consistent with August [3] - The potential for market volatility is heightened due to the lack of recent economic reports caused by government shutdowns [3] Federal Reserve Outlook - Economists expect inflation to remain elevated due to tariffs increasing goods prices, but BlackRock's strategist believes the CPI data will not alter the Fed's decision in the upcoming meeting [4] - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in the October meeting is 98.9%, and 96.1% for December [4] AI Sector Insights - Goldman Sachs expresses skepticism about the AI bubble, stating that while some warning signs exist, the tech sector has not yet entered a bubble phase [5] - The firm highlights the significant cash flow generation and stock buybacks by the "Magnificent Seven" tech companies, which were not common during previous bubbles [5] Banking Sector - The US banking system's reserves have fallen below $3 trillion for the second consecutive week, impacting the Fed's asset reduction strategy [6] - Analysts expect the Fed to halt the reduction of its $6.6 trillion balance sheet in the upcoming meeting [6] Treasury Yield Impact - The 10-year US Treasury yield is at a critical point, with potential movements depending on the CPI data release [7] - Higher-than-expected inflation could lead to a significant rise in yields, while lower-than-expected inflation could initiate a new bull market in equities [7] Gold Market - The ongoing US government shutdown is likely to extend, increasing uncertainty and boosting demand for gold as a safe haven [8] Company-Specific News - Google (GOOGL) has secured a deal with Anthropic for up to 1 million AI chips, valued at several billion dollars, enhancing its position in the AI infrastructure market [9] - Intel (INTC) reported Q3 revenue of $13.7 billion, a 3% year-on-year increase, and a significant turnaround with an adjusted EPS of $0.23, exceeding expectations [10] - Ford (F) faces a $2 billion profit impact due to a fire at a key supplier for its F-150 model, but reported strong Q3 earnings with an adjusted EPS of $0.45 [11] - Procter & Gamble (PG) exceeded Q1 sales expectations with $22.39 billion, driven by strong consumer demand despite price increases [12] - Sanofi (SNY) reported Q3 revenue of €12.43 billion, a 2.3% year-on-year increase, driven by strong sales of its Dupixent drug [12] - Eni (E.US) announced a 20% increase in its stock buyback plan to €18 billion due to improved cash flow and profit performance [13] - Newmont Mining (NEM) reported Q3 revenue of $5.52 billion, a 19.7% year-on-year increase, but saw a decline in stock price due to lower production levels [13]

Market Overview - On October 24, A-shares saw all three major indices rise, with total trading volume approaching 2 trillion yuan, an increase of over 330 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at its intraday high of 3950.31 points, with over 1000 of the 1300+ ETFs in the market rising, and more than 130 products gaining over 4% [1] ETF Performance - Technology-themed ETFs performed exceptionally well, with all top ten ETFs by daily gain being technology-focused, each rising over 5% [2] - Some technology-themed ETFs have achieved over 100% returns year-to-date [2] - The Communication Equipment ETF (159583) led the market with a 6.49% increase and a trading volume of 190 million yuan, doubling from the previous day [2][3] - The top-performing stocks within the Communication Equipment ETF included Aerospace Science and Technology, which hit the daily limit, and several others that rose over 10% [2] Sector Analysis - The communication and electronics sectors were the top performers among over 30 industry sectors, with a combined trading volume exceeding 540 billion yuan [2] - Four ETFs linked to the Shanghai Stock Exchange Science and Technology Innovation Board Chip Index also made it to the top ten gainers, with significant increases in stocks related to storage chips [3][4] Fund Flows - On October 23, the ETF market saw a net inflow of approximately 6 billion yuan, with defensive ETFs continuing to attract funds, while some aggressive ETFs also gained interest [7][8] - Defensive ETFs focused on currencies, bonds, banks, and gold saw significant net inflows, with the Hua Bao Tian Yi ETF (511990) leading with a net inflow of 717 million yuan [7][8] - Conversely, some large-cap broad-based products experienced net outflows, with the Coal ETF (515220) seeing a net outflow of 601 million yuan on the same day [9][10] Earnings Outlook - Analysts suggest that the technology growth sector remains a favored investment theme, particularly with the acceleration of AI industry trends [11] - The upcoming third-quarter earnings reports are expected to show strong performance in the electronics and AI sectors, with many companies likely to exceed expectations [11][12] - The overall return on equity (ROE) for A-share listed companies (excluding financials and oil) is expected to rise, indicating improving profitability and market fundamentals [12]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: ★☆★, indicating a slightly bullish trend with limited trading opportunities on the market [1] - Fuel oil: ★☆☆, suggesting a bullish bias but with low market operability [1] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: ☆☆☆, meaning the short - term long/short trend is in a relatively balanced state, and it's advisable to wait and see [1] - Asphalt: ★★★, representing a clearer bullish trend with appropriate investment opportunities [1] - Liquefied petroleum gas: ★☆☆, showing a bullish drive but low market operability [1] 2. Core View of the Report - Geopolitical risks, especially the escalation of sanctions on Russia, are driving the short - term upward volatility of the oil market. The short - term trends of various energy products are greatly affected by macro events, while the medium - term trends are related to supply - demand fundamentals [1][2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - Overnight international oil prices rebounded for the second consecutive day, with the SC12 contract rising 2.4% intraday. The sharp escalation of the Russia - Ukraine geopolitical risk led to the oil price rebound. The EU's 19th round of sanctions on Russia involves 4 Chinese enterprises, and supply - chain risks have emerged in the trade and unloading ports of Chinese purchases of Russian oil. Geopolitical risks drive the short - term upward volatility of the oil market. Attention should be paid to the progress of Sino - US - Malaysian talks from the 24th to 27th and subsequent Russia - US dialogues [1] Fuel Oil & Low - sulfur Fuel Oil - The escalation of sanctions on Russia by Europe and the US and geopolitical factors drive the upward trend of the crude - oil system. The sanctions on Russia, a major producer of high - sulfur raw materials, have a stronger upward driving force for high - sulfur fuel oil than for low - sulfur fuel oil. In the short term, the trend depends on the outcome of macro events. In the medium term, as the power - generation peak season ends and supply becomes looser, the upward pressure on high - sulfur fuel oil will gradually appear. The fundamentals of low - sulfur fuel oil remain weak with abundant overseas supply. The recovery of the RFCC unit of the Dangote refinery has led to a decline in shipments, but its operational stability remains to be observed. In the fourth quarter, the increase in heating and power - generation demand in the Northern Hemisphere may bring marginal improvement to low - sulfur fuel oil and support the crack spread [2] Asphalt - The BU contract continued its upward trend, with the near - month contract rising relatively strongly. This week, both supply and demand of asphalt decreased. The scheduled production of local refineries in November decreased significantly month - on - month and year - on - year. The weekly shipments of 54 asphalt sample enterprises decreased month - on - month. Social inventories continued to be destocked steadily, while the destocking of refinery inventories was slow, and the overall commercial inventory decreased slightly. In the short term, the asphalt market maintains a tight - balance pattern, and the strengthening of the cost side helps the BU contract consolidate its upward trend [2] Liquefied Petroleum Gas - All LPG futures contracts rose today. The external market price stabilized and rebounded. The commercial volume of liquefied gas and the volume of imported vessels both decreased. The improvement of chemical profit promoted the increase in demand, and the significant cooling in many places led to a sign of improvement in the combustion - end demand. The inventories of Chinese refineries and ports continued to decline. The marginal improvement of fundamentals and the strengthening of crude oil prices boosted the LPG market [2]

Report Summary - Market focus includes significant changes in US-Russia relations with US sanctions on two major Russian oil companies, rising expectations of Fed rate cuts, and EU approval of the 19th round of sanctions against Russia [7] - Key data shows that as of October 22, the domestic asphalt sample enterprise operating rate was 31.1%, down 4.7 percentage points from the previous cycle; as of October 24, the weekly asphalt output was 552,000 tons, a decrease of 72,000 tons from the previous week; the factory inventory was 710,000 tons, a decrease of 17,000 tons; and the social inventory was 1.005 million tons, a decrease of 46,000 tons [7] - The main view is that in the short term, asphalt presents a pattern of weak supply and demand. Supply decreases seasonally as refineries enter maintenance, and demand is weak due to cold and rainy weather in the north. Crude oil is the main factor affecting the asphalt market. Recent geopolitical risks and supply tightening expectations have led to a rebound in oil prices, but the impact may not be sustainable, and oil prices are expected to fluctuate widely. Attention should be paid to macro - level changes and the OPEC+ production meeting on November 2 [7] - The trading strategy suggests paying attention to the BU2601 contract in the range of 3,200 - 3,350 yuan/ton [8] Multi - Empty Focus - Bullish factors for asphalt are macro - improvement and geopolitical risks, while bearish factors are weak demand and potential OPEC+ production increase [11] Macro Analysis Sanctions on Russia - The US Treasury sanctioned two major Russian oil companies and their subsidiaries on October 22, covering nearly half of Russia's crude oil exports (about 2.2 million barrels per day in H1). The EU approved the 19th round of sanctions on the same day, including banning Russian LNG imports and adding travel restrictions on Russian diplomats [12] - These sanctions have increased geopolitical risks and pushed up the market, but they are not a full - scale embargo. They mainly increase Russia's oil trade costs, with limited impact on global supply. The upward movement of the market is more emotional, and the rebound space of oil prices is limited due to expected supply surplus [12] Fed Rate Cut Expectations - Due to the US government shutdown, economic data is delayed, posing challenges to the Fed's decision - making. However, market expectations for a Fed rate cut are rising. As of October 23, the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut in October is 96.7%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point cut in December is 96.5% [13] - Fed Chairman Powell hinted that the long - term quantitative tightening (QT) may be near the end. The support of potential rate cuts for the market is limited [13] IEA Forecast - The IEA raised the 2025 global crude oil supply growth forecast by 300,000 barrels per day to 3 million barrels per day and lowered the demand growth forecast by 30,000 barrels per day to 710,000 barrels per day. OPEC+ production increases are putting more pressure on the supply side, and the supply - demand imbalance is expected to be more severe [14] Supply - Demand Analysis Supply - As of October 24, the weekly domestic asphalt output was 552,000 tons, a decrease of 72,000 tons from the previous week. Output from local refineries decreased significantly, while that from major refineries was basically flat. Major refineries' operating rates may have peaked, and supply pressure is expected to decrease [15] - As of October 22, the operating rate of domestic asphalt sample enterprises was 31.1%, a decrease of 4.7 percentage points from the previous cycle. The operating rates in South China and Shandong decreased significantly. With major refineries entering seasonal maintenance, supply pressure is expected to ease [23] Demand - As of October 24, the weekly domestic asphalt shipment volume was 429,000 tons, an increase of 36,000 tons from the previous statistical date. However, as demand enters the off - season, shipment volume is likely to decline seasonally [24] - As of October 24, the weekly capacity utilization rate of domestic modified asphalt was 12.09%, a decrease of 0.51 percentage points from the previous week. It is expected to decline further in the fourth quarter as the downstream enters the off - season [27] Inventory - As of October 24, the factory inventory of domestic asphalt sample enterprises was 710,000 tons, a decrease of 17,000 tons from the previous week, mainly due to the decrease in East China. Cold and rainy weather in the north has affected construction and inventory turnover, and inventory accumulation pressure is increasing [36] - As of October 24, the domestic asphalt social inventory was 1.005 million tons, a decrease of 46,000 tons from the previous week, continuing the downward trend since August but at a slower pace [41] Spread - As of October 24, the weekly processing profit of domestic asphalt was - 337.5 yuan/ton, an increase of 56.6 yuan/ton from the previous week. The domestic asphalt basis was 193 yuan/ton, and as of October 22, the asphalt - to - crude oil ratio was 54.72 [50] Market Outlook - In the short term, asphalt maintains a pattern of weak supply and demand. The supply is affected by refinery maintenance, and the demand is limited by weather. Crude oil is the key factor for the asphalt market. Geopolitical risks have led to a short - term rebound in oil prices, but the sustainability is uncertain. Oil prices are expected to fluctuate widely. Attention should be paid to macro - level changes and the OPEC+ production meeting on November 2. The BU2601 contract in the range of 3,200 - 3,350 yuan/ton is recommended for attention [52]

Core Insights - The dollar index is stabilizing above the 99 mark, while gold prices are trading at $4066.70 per ounce, reflecting a decline of 1.45% [1] - The market is focused on the upcoming U.S. September CPI data, with expectations for the core inflation rate to remain at 3.1% [1][4] - Investors are anticipating a 25 basis point rate cut from the Federal Reserve next week, with potential implications for gold prices depending on the inflation data [1] Market Analysis - Gold prices have increased approximately 57% this year, driven by geopolitical tensions, economic uncertainty, rate cut expectations, and ongoing central bank purchases [4] - Recent geopolitical risks have spurred safe-haven demand for gold, leading to a rebound after two days of decline [3] - The focus is on the U.S. CPI report, which is expected to provide clear inflation signals ahead of the Federal Reserve's policy meeting [4] Technical Analysis - The daily K-line for gold shows a small bullish star, indicating a pause after two consecutive bearish days, suggesting a potential for further adjustments [5] - Key resistance levels for gold are identified at $4120 and $4150, with the possibility of a bullish trend if prices remain near $4150 [5] - The MACD indicator suggests further correction is needed, indicating a cautious outlook for the short term [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The geopolitical situation has led to a short - term rebound in oil prices, but the sustainability of sanctions and their impact on the market need to be closely monitored. The crude oil market faces supply - demand imbalances, with increasing supply and weakening demand in the future [7][8][10]. - The price of asphalt may follow the short - term upward trend of oil prices, but the sustainability is questionable, and it may fall again later due to weakening demand [26][27]. - The soda ash market is in a state of oversupply, and the contract price is expected to fluctuate. With no substantial positive factors, the price may fluctuate weakly [50][51][53]. - The supply - demand imbalance in the industrial silicon market persists, and the futures price is expected to oscillate within a narrow range [74]. - The polysilicon market has insufficient endogenous improvement power, with supply - demand remaining loose and continued inventory accumulation. The price is expected to oscillate, and it is advisable to wait and see [89]. - The pulp market may continue to oscillate widely in the short term due to weak overseas consumption and slow start of the traditional peak season [104]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Review and Operation Suggestions**: WTI, Brent, and SC crude oil prices rose this week. Geopolitical factors such as sanctions on Russian oil companies may support the prices of Middle - Eastern oil types, but the sustainability of sanctions is uncertain. If sanctions ease, oil prices may fall again [7]. - **Fundamental Changes**: Geopolitical tensions have supported oil prices, but historical experience shows that prices may fall without further support. EIA data shows that US crude oil and product inventories decreased this week, and refinery operating rates rebounded. However, OPEC+ continues to increase production, and the market is worried about supply over - capacity. On the demand side, although the demand in the second and third quarters was slightly higher than expected, it is expected to be weak in the remaining time of this year and 2026 [8][10][11]. Asphalt - **Market Review and Operation Suggestions**: The asphalt futures price rose this week, while the spot price fell slightly. The cost side is affected by oil prices, and the supply side is expected to remain stable overall, but the demand side is seasonally weakening. Short - term prices may follow oil prices, but the sustainability is doubtful, and long - positions should take flexible profit - taking [26][27]. - **Fundamental Changes**: The cost side is affected by geopolitical factors. The supply side has some changes in refinery production plans, with overall operating rates expected to be stable. The demand side is weakening seasonally, and the inventory of both factories and the society has decreased. The production profit has generally increased [28][30][31]. Soda Ash - **Market Review and Operation Suggestions**: The soda ash futures price fluctuated slightly and was slightly stronger. Supply was affected by equipment maintenance, but overall production remained stable. Downstream demand was mainly for low - price replenishment, and the fundamental driving force was still insufficient. The market was in a state of oversupply, and the price was expected to oscillate, with a possible weakening trend [50][51][53]. - **Soda Ash Market Situation**: - **Supply**: The weekly production and operating rate of soda ash decreased slightly. Some enterprises had equipment maintenance, and the overall supply remained abundant. In the fourth quarter, supply may be further affected by new capacity [54][55]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of soda ash increased again, with heavy - soda ash inventory increasing significantly. The inventory pressure was significant, and the supply - demand imbalance continued to dominate the market [56]. - **Spot Market**: The spot price of soda ash was expected to oscillate narrowly, with a weak balance between supply and demand and insufficient upward momentum [63]. - **Glass Import and Export**: The export volume of soda ash in September decreased slightly, but the cumulative export volume from January to September increased significantly compared with last year. The import volume was small [64]. - **Downstream**: The demand for soda ash from the float glass industry was relatively stable, but the industry was still in a situation of strong supply and weak demand. The demand from the photovoltaic glass industry was in a weak - balance state, and the inventory pressure might restrict price increases [68][69]. Industrial Silicon - **Industrial Silicon Futures Review and Outlook**: The spot price of industrial silicon was stable, and the futures price oscillated. The supply - demand imbalance persisted, and the price was expected to oscillate within the range of 8500 - 9000 yuan/ton [74]. - **Industrial Silicon Fundamental Overview**: The prices of main products in the industrial silicon industry chain were stable. The spot inventory was slowly increasing, and the production continued to rise. The demand from the polysilicon and organic silicon sectors had different performances, and the export volume decreased slightly in September [74][76][77]. Polysilicon - **Polysilicon Market Review and Outlook**: The price of polysilicon was stable, and the futures price oscillated. The photovoltaic industry had insufficient endogenous improvement power, with supply - demand remaining loose and continued inventory accumulation. It was advisable to wait and see [88][89]. - **Photovoltaic Industry Fundamental Overview**: The prices of main products in the polysilicon industry chain were stable. The production of polysilicon continued to increase, but the terminal demand was weak, and the inventory of the entire industry chain increased slightly [90][92]. Pulp - **Pulp Market Review and Outlook**: The pulp futures price rose this week, and the spot price of wood pulp showed a differentiated trend. Overseas consumption was weak, and the supply pressure of domestic and foreign pulp mills was still being released. The demand side of the pulp market was slowly increasing, and the traditional peak season started slowly. The price was expected to oscillate widely in the short term [103][104]. - **Fundamental Changes**: - **Paper Pulp Shipment Volume of Main Producing Countries**: In August, the shipment volume of chemical pulp from the world's top 20 pulp - producing countries increased year - on - year, with different trends for softwood and hardwood pulp [105]. - **Paper Pulp Import Volume**: In September, China's paper pulp import volume increased both month - on - month and year - on - year [104]. - **Paper Pulp Inventory Situation**: The inventory days of global producers' softwood and hardwood pulp showed different trends, and the inventory in major regions and ports increased [115]. - **Downstream Market**: The performance of downstream base papers was still differentiated, and the demand for the pulp market increased slowly [104].