Market Overview - The blockage of the Strait of Hormuz has led to a surge in oil prices, raising concerns about inflation and economic outlook. The Dow Jones fell by 1.99%, the Nasdaq by 1.26%, and the S&P 500 by 1.60% over the week [1] - European indices also declined, with the FTSE 100 down 0.23%, DAX 30 down 0.61%, and CAC 40 down 1.03% [1] Federal Reserve and Economic Data - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain the federal funds target rate at 3.50%–3.75% during the upcoming policy decision, marking the second consecutive meeting without a change [2] - Investors are particularly interested in how the Fed will address the rising energy prices due to Middle Eastern conflicts and their potential impact on inflation [2] - Key upcoming U.S. economic data includes February industrial production, producer price index (PPI), and initial jobless claims [2] Nvidia's Global Technology Conference - Nvidia's annual Global Technology Conference (GTC) is set to take place from March 16 to 19, where CEO Jensen Huang is expected to announce significant AI-related developments that could impact tech stocks [3] Oil and Gold Market - Oil prices have risen for the fourth consecutive week due to disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, with WTI crude up 8.59% to $98.57 per barrel and Brent crude up 11.27% to $103.14 per barrel [4] - The International Energy Agency (IEA) agreed to release 400 million barrels from emergency reserves, but market concerns remain high due to ongoing threats to shipping routes [4] - Gold and silver prices fell, with COMEX gold futures down 2.65% to $5022.11 per ounce and silver down 3.46% to $80.914 per ounce [4] Central Bank Actions - The European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to adjust its stance due to the impact of the Middle Eastern conflict on energy prices, with market expectations for rate hikes before July [5] - The Bank of England is likely to maintain its rate at 3.75% amid rising inflation concerns, with January's inflation rate reported at 3.0% [5] - The UK money market is pricing in a 70% probability of a rate hike by the end of the year, although some analysts suggest potential rate cuts if the conflict does not persist [6] Upcoming Economic Events - Key economic data releases next week include the ZEW Economic Sentiment Index for Germany and the Eurozone, as well as CPI figures for Italy and the Eurozone [5][6] - The schedule also includes various corporate earnings reports from companies like Micron Technology, General Mills, and Alibaba [3][7]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent surge in fuel prices in China, highlighting the impact on both gasoline and electric vehicle owners, and emphasizes the shared challenges faced by both groups amid fluctuating energy costs [6][24]. Group 1: Fuel Price Increase - On March 9, 2023, fuel prices in China saw a significant increase, with gasoline and diesel retail prices rising by 695 yuan and 670 yuan per ton, respectively [6]. - The average price increase for 92 and 95 octane gasoline was 0.55 yuan and 0.58 yuan per liter, marking the largest increase since the price adjustment mechanism was implemented in 2022 [6][24]. - The increase in fuel prices has led to a rush at gas stations, with many drivers opting to fill their tanks before the price hike [6][9]. Group 2: Impact on Vehicle Owners - Vehicle owners are feeling the financial strain from rising fuel costs, with an example given that filling a 50-liter tank now costs an additional 27.5 yuan, equivalent to a decent meal [9][11]. - The article notes that while some drivers may not feel the pinch if their vehicle is used primarily for commuting, those who use their cars for business or leisure travel are more affected by the increased costs [11][15]. - The article also highlights the perspective of ride-hailing drivers and long-distance commuters, who view their vehicles as essential tools for income generation and are particularly sensitive to fuel price fluctuations [15][16]. Group 3: Electric Vehicle Considerations - Amid rising fuel prices, some electric vehicle owners express relief, believing they have avoided the burden of increased gasoline costs [19][22]. - However, the article points out that electric vehicle prices are also rising due to increased production costs, particularly for battery materials, with lithium carbonate prices soaring from 75,000 yuan per ton to 171,900 yuan per ton [23][24]. - The article emphasizes that the perceived victory of electric vehicles over gasoline cars is not universally applicable, as both groups face their own financial challenges [24][28]. Group 4: Societal Reactions and Adaptations - The article notes a calm discussion among vehicle owners in online forums, with many recognizing that both gasoline and electric vehicle owners share similar concerns about rising costs [27][31]. - It suggests that rather than viewing the situation as a competition between fuel types, individuals should focus on their own financial strategies to cope with rising living expenses [30][31]. - The article concludes that the ongoing fluctuations in fuel prices will have broader implications across various sectors, affecting logistics, construction, textiles, and dining industries [24][26].

Group 1 - Kharg Island is a crucial location for Iran, as it handles 90% of the country's oil exports [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market sentiment is bullish due to the ongoing Iran - US conflict, high - fluctuating oil prices, and the spill - over of oil and gas and chemical market sentiment. Short - selling may not be appropriate until the Iran - US situation eases. It is advisable to look for short - term rebound opportunities in undervalued and high - elasticity varieties [19]. - Although the fundamental support for a significant short - term price rebound of coking coal is insufficient, attention should be paid to the possible short - term upward pulse of coking coal prices due to the continuous spill - over of market sentiment, especially when combined with sudden safety production upgrades. In the long - term, the coking coal price is expected to rise, with a higher probability during the safety production month and consumption peak season from June to October [19]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Market Review** - Last week, the coking coal futures price fluctuated upwards, with a weekly increase of 60.5 yuan/ton or + 5.28%. The price was supported by the energy sentiment premium from high - level oil prices due to the Middle East situation. The price tested the support near 1100 yuan/ton and is approaching the long - term downward trend line. The support at 1100 yuan/ton and the resistance at 1250 yuan/ton should be monitored [14]. - The coke price also trended upwards, with a weekly increase of 47.5 yuan/ton or + 2.79%, mainly following the coking coal price. The support near 1600 - 1650 yuan/ton and the resistance near 1800 - 1850 yuan/ton should be watched [17]. - **Weekly Key Points Summary** - **Spot Price and Basis**: For coking coal, the prices of different types of coking coal showed different trends, with some rising and some falling. The basis of some coking coal varieties showed a premium, while others showed a discount. For coke, the prices of Rizhao Port and Luliang remained stable, and both showed a discount to the futures [18]. - **Position**: The position of the coking coal main contract is at a high level in the same period of the past six years, and the positions of the April and June contracts are significantly higher than normal, which may bring warehouse receipt pressure [18]. - **Domestic Production**: The daily average output of clean coal from 523 sample mines increased by 2.92 tons week - on - week, and the cumulative output decreased by 0.40% year - on - year. The daily average output of clean coal from 314 sample coal washing plants increased by 3.18 tons week - on - week, and the cumulative output increased by 9.40% year - on - year [18][74][76]. - **Overseas Imports**: The customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal at Ganqimaodu Port is at a high level in the same period. The import profit of Australian coking coal is - 265 yuan/ton, and the import window remains closed [18][79][82]. - **Demand**: The total daily average coke output of 247 steel enterprises and independent coking plants was basically flat, with a year - on - year decrease of 0.77%. The coking profit of independent coking plants was - 3 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton week - on - week. The daily average hot metal output of 247 steel enterprises decreased by 6.39 tons week - on - week, and the steel mill profitability rate increased by 3.03 pct. The apparent consumption of five major steel products increased week - on - week but decreased year - on - year. The steel inventory increased week - on - week and year - on - year, but the inventory accumulation rate slowed down [18]. - **Supply - Demand Structure**: The estimated daily average supply of coking coal in the country is 154.41 tons, and the demand is 149.16 tons (coke production conversion) and 142.81 tons (hot metal conversion). The supply - demand of coking coal is marginally loose. The estimated daily average demand for coke from hot metal is 106.18 tons, and the supply - demand of coke is also marginally loose [19][110]. - **Inventory**: The total coking coal inventory increased by 13.24 tons week - on - week, with different changes in different sectors. The total coke inventory decreased by 0.31 tons week - on - week, also with different changes in different sectors [19][114]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Market - **Spot Price** - For coking coal, as of March 13, 2026, the prices of different coal types showed different trends, such as the price of low - sulfur main coking coal decreased by 20.1 yuan/ton, while the price of medium - sulfur main coking coal increased by 23 yuan/ton. For coke, the prices of Rizhao Port and Luliang remained stable [23][25][34]. - **Basis and Spread** - For coking coal, the basis of Shanxi low - sulfur main coking coal was 85 yuan/ton, and the basis of Jinquan Mongolian No. 5 clean coal was - 28 yuan/ton. The 5 - 9 spread of coking coal was - 99 yuan/ton, and it maintained a Contango structure. For coke, the basis of Rizhao Port quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke was - 12 yuan/ton, and the basis of Luliang quasi - first - grade dry - quenched coke was - 27 yuan/ton. The 5 - 9 spread of coke was - 74.5 yuan/ton, also maintaining a Contango structure [42][45][48][51]. 3.3. Position and Variety Ratio - **Position** - As of March 13, 2026, the total unilateral position of coking coal was 599,300 lots, a decrease of 83,000 lots week - on - week, but still at a relatively high historical level. The unilateral position of coke was 42,100 lots, a decrease of 200 lots week - on - week. The position of the coking coal main contract is at a high level in the same period of the past six years, and the positions of the April and June contracts are significantly higher than normal [60][61]. - **Variety Ratio** - This week, JM/I increased by 0.01, HC/JM decreased by 0.09, indicating that coking coal was stronger than iron ore and finished products. Currently, JM/I is still at a low historical level, and the valuation of coking coal is relatively low compared to iron ore. J/I decreased by 0.04, HC/J decreased by 0.01, and JM/J increased by 0.02. Coke was slightly weaker than iron ore but slightly stronger than finished products. Currently, J/I is also at a low historical level, and the valuation of coke is relatively low compared to iron ore [66][69]. 3.4. Supply and Demand - **Domestic Coking Coal Production** - The daily average output of clean coal from 523 sample mines was 77.7 tons, an increase of 2.92 tons week - on - week. The daily average output of clean coal from 314 sample coal washing plants was 23.08 tons, an increase of 3.18 tons week - on - week [74][76]. - **Imported Coking Coal** - The customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal at Ganqimaodu Port is at a high level in the same period. The import profit of Australian coking coal is - 265 yuan/ton, and the import window remains closed. In 2025, the cumulative imports of Mongolian, Russian, Canadian, and Australian coking coal showed different trends, while the import of US coking coal was stagnant due to tariffs [79][82][85][89]. - **Coke Production** - The total daily average coke output of 247 steel enterprises and independent coking plants was 110.90 tons, basically flat week - on - week. The daily average coke output of 247 steel enterprises was 47 tons, unchanged week - on - week, and the daily average coke output of independent coking plants was 63.90 tons, a decrease of 0.04 tons week - on - week. The coking profit of independent coking plants was - 3 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton week - on - week [92][95]. - **Downstream Steel Industry** - The daily average hot metal output of 247 steel enterprises was 221.2 tons, a decrease of 6.39 tons week - on - week. The steel mill profitability rate was 41.13%, an increase of 3.03 pct. The estimated profits of rebar and hot - rolled coil on the futures market were - 210 yuan/ton and - 162 yuan/ton respectively, and the profits continued to decline. The apparent consumption of five major steel products increased week - on - week but decreased year - on - year. The steel inventory increased week - on - week and year - on - year, but the inventory accumulation rate slowed down [98][104][108]. 3.5. Inventory - As of March 13, 2026, the total coking coal inventory increased by 13.24 tons week - on - week, with different changes in different sectors. The total coke inventory decreased by 0.31 tons week - on - week, also with different changes in different sectors [114].

Group 1 - The U.S. Treasury Department has conditionally relaxed restrictions on energy-related transactions with Venezuela, allowing U.S. entities to engage in oil and petrochemical activities [1] - The new general licenses permit U.S. companies to provide goods and services for the development or production of oil, gas, and petrochemical products in Venezuela, as well as to negotiate or sign contracts in these sectors [1] - This authorization expands the scope of U.S. investment and activities in Venezuela's energy sector and allows Venezuela to export fertilizers directly to the U.S. [1] Group 2 - The context of this decision follows increased energy prices due to escalating tensions in Iran, prompting the U.S. to adjust its stance on Venezuela [1] - The U.S. military previously conducted a large-scale operation against Venezuela in January, which included the capture of President Maduro and his wife, leading to a shift in U.S. policy towards managing Venezuela until a "safe" transition occurs [1] - In late January, the U.S. government lifted some restrictions related to Venezuelan oil transactions, indicating a strategic pivot in its approach to the region [1]

A-Share Market Insights - The A-share market exhibited a volatile and differentiated pattern, with small-cap stocks under significant pressure while large-cap value stocks showed relative resilience[7] - The CSI 2000 index fell by 1.43%, the CSI 500 dropped by 1.44%, and the North Star 50 saw the largest decline of 2.15%[7] - The average daily trading volume was 2.50 trillion yuan, reflecting a week-on-week decrease of 5.52%, indicating reduced market activity[7] - Brent crude oil prices surpassed $100 per barrel, influenced by ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, which continue to adjust market expectations[7] - The market's main trading focus remained on energy and defensive sectors, with strong performance from coal, utilities, and power equipment sectors[7] Hong Kong Market Insights - The Hong Kong market showed a mixed performance, with the Hang Seng Index declining by 1.13% to 25,465.60 points, while the Hang Seng Tech Index rose by 0.62% to 4,978.08 points[8] - The market is currently influenced by geopolitical conflicts and the earnings season, with major companies like Tencent and Alibaba set to report results in mid to late March[8] - The Hang Seng Tech Index rebounded due to improved liquidity and positive earnings expectations, focusing on AI capital expenditure guidance and profit recovery[8] - A "barbell strategy" is recommended for portfolio allocation, balancing high-dividend defensive assets with undervalued internet leaders poised for recovery[8] - Risks include potential tightening of global liquidity and unexpected complexities in market dynamics and policy changes[9]

Core Viewpoint - Energy security is crucial for the overall economic and social development, with the "14th Five-Year Plan" outlining a target for China's comprehensive energy production capacity to reach 5.8 billion tons of standard coal by 2030 [1]. Group 1: Energy Security Strategy - The implementation of a new energy security strategy aims to accelerate the construction of a clean, low-carbon, safe, and efficient new energy system, contributing to the establishment of an energy powerhouse [2]. Group 2: Oil and Gas - The government will improve the pricing mechanism for refined oil and ensure a stable annual crude oil production of around 200 million tons [7]. - A collaborative approach between government and enterprises will enhance national oil reserves, with significant projects planned for oil reserve construction [7]. - The strategy includes a long-term oil and gas reserve and production increase plan, alongside reforms in natural gas pricing [7]. Group 3: Coal - Policies will be established to regulate coal prices and promote low-carbon transformation projects in coal-fired power plants [7]. - The goal is to replace 30 million tons of coal consumption annually and improve the coal reserve system [7]. Group 4: Natural Gas - Major infrastructure projects include the construction of pipelines for natural gas from Russia and domestic sources, as well as gas storage facilities [7]. - The development of gas bases in various regions is prioritized to enhance energy security [7]. Group 5: Renewable Energy - The construction of large-scale wind and solar power bases in desert areas is planned, with a target of adding around 100 million kilowatts of new installed capacity [10]. - Offshore wind power capacity is expected to exceed 100 million kilowatts, with a focus on orderly development in deep-sea areas [10]. - Nuclear power capacity is projected to reach approximately 110 million kilowatts, with ongoing efforts in comprehensive utilization and advanced technology development [10]. Group 6: Power System Optimization - The establishment of a unified national electricity market system is underway, aiming to enhance the resilience and efficiency of the power system [10]. - The capacity for west-to-east electricity transmission is targeted to exceed 420 million kilowatts, with improvements in inter-provincial power sharing [10].

Global Asset Performance - Global bond market yields have generally risen, with the 2-year and 10-year U.S. Treasury yields increasing by 17 and 13 basis points respectively[14] - Major global stock indices, including the S&P 500, Dow Jones, and Nasdaq, fell by 1.6%, 2%, and 1.3% respectively[14] - WTI and Brent crude oil prices surged by 18.1% and 17.6% respectively, while London gold prices dropped by 3%[14] Central Bank Monetary Policy - Market expectations for U.S. and European policy rates have shifted upward, with the probability of a Fed rate cut in December dropping to 61% from 96.6% a month ago[5] - The European Central Bank is expected to raise rates by 30 to 35 basis points this year due to persistent inflation risks[5] U.S. Economic Dynamics - U.S. CPI year-on-year growth remained stable at 2.4% in February, with core CPI also steady at 2.5%[20] - The core PCE price index rose by 3.1% year-on-year in January, the highest since March 2024, while the overall PCE index increased by 2.8%[20] Oil Price Intervention Measures - The International Energy Agency agreed to release 400 million barrels of oil from emergency reserves, the largest coordinated release since 1974[22] - The U.S. plans to release 172 million barrels from its Strategic Petroleum Reserve over approximately 120 days[22] Economic Sentiment in Europe and Asia - The Eurozone Sentix investor confidence index fell to -3.1 in March, significantly below expectations and previous values[30] - Japan announced the release of 8 million barrels of oil and refined products starting March 16, covering about 45 days of domestic supply[35]

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing conflict in the Middle East, particularly the U.S. military actions against Iran and the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, is pushing the global energy market towards a severe supply crisis not seen in decades [1][2]. Group 1: Supply Crisis and Price Surge - Major Wall Street institutions, including JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, and RBC Capital Markets, have collectively warned of a rapidly expanding supply gap, with oil prices at risk of further significant increases [2][5]. - Brent crude oil has surged approximately 40% since the onset of U.S. military actions, surpassing $100 per barrel [2]. - The supply of oil through the Strait of Hormuz has drastically decreased from over 19 million barrels per day to about 600,000 barrels, which is close to negligible compared to U.S. oil production [5]. Group 2: Impact on Fuel Prices - U.S. gasoline retail prices have risen to $3.63 per gallon, marking the 13th consecutive day of increases and approaching the critical psychological level of $4 per gallon [6]. - The market is facing severe shortages of diesel, aviation fuel, liquefied petroleum gas, and naphtha, with analysts indicating that these products are essentially unavailable for consumption [5]. Group 3: Future Price Predictions - RBC Capital Markets predicts that oil prices may exceed the peak of $128 per barrel reached during the early weeks of the Russia-Ukraine conflict and could challenge the historical high of approximately $147 per barrel from 2008 [7]. - The ongoing conflict is expected to persist into the spring of the following year, with the potential for further escalations in oil prices [7]. Group 4: Regional Impacts and Responses - Asian countries, heavily reliant on energy imports through the Strait of Hormuz, are particularly vulnerable to the supply disruptions, prompting Australia to release domestic fuel reserves to mitigate potential shortages [9]. - The U.S. government has implemented several measures to stabilize the market, including naval escorts for oil tankers and the release of strategic oil reserves, but these efforts have not yet alleviated market pessimism [8][9].

国别研究 [table_Header] 2026.03.14 集体承压，越南领跌区域 ——东南亚指数双周报第 20 期 摘要： 产业研究中心 | [Table_Authors] | 王 祎婕(分析师) | | --- | --- | | | 021-23185687 | | | wangyijie@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880525040089 | | | 汪立亭(分析师) | | | 021-23219399 | | | wangliting@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880525040004 | [Table_Report] 往期回顾 可扩展量子网络关键突破：中科大实现长寿命远 程离子纠缠存储 2026.02.08 国内首个商业航天共性试验平台正在建设——商 业航天跟踪 30 期 2026.02.02 【新材料产业周报】独山子石化 2025 年共生产 POE 产品近 6 万吨，因势新材等多家新材料公司 完成融资 2026.02.02 分布式城际量子传感：中国科大构建网络约束轴 子暗物质 2026.02.02 以太坊基金会确立后量子安全路线，智能体通信 标准加速商业闭 ...