重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 纯碱早报 2025-8-20 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 每日观点 纯碱： 1、基本面：碱厂检修较少，供给仍处高位；下游浮法玻璃日熔量平稳，光伏日熔量大幅下滑， 终端需求走弱，纯碱厂库处于历史高位；偏空 2、基差：河北沙河重质纯碱现货价1230元/吨，SA2601收盘价为1358元/吨，基差为-128元，期 货升水现货；偏空 3、库存：全国纯碱厂内库存189.38万吨，较前一周增加1.54%，库存在5年均值上方运行；偏空 4、盘面：价格在20日线下方运行，20日线向下；偏空 5、主力持仓：主力持仓净空，空增；偏空 6、预期：纯碱基本面供强需弱，短期预计震荡偏弱运行为主。 影响因素总结 利多： 1、夏季检修高峰期来临，产量将有所下滑。 利空： 主要逻辑和风险点 1、23年以来 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the entire black building materials industry is "oscillation" [5] - The mid - term outlooks for specific varieties such as steel, iron ore, scrap steel, coke, coking coal, glass, soda ash, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon are also "oscillation" [7][8][9][11][12][13][15][16][17] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - As the transition between the off - season and peak season approaches, market concerns about the terminal demand for steel are rising. Although the seventh round of price increases for coke has started, the futures prices of coal and coke are falling. The production restriction before major events is slightly less than expected, and inventory pressure at the downstream of steel is emerging. The price is expected to oscillate within the current range in the near term [1][2] - The trading focus of the black building materials market is gradually shifting from the expectation of anti - involution on the supply side to the actual supply - demand situation. The weak reality is suppressing prices, and future attention should be paid to policy implementation and terminal demand [5] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Iron Element (Iron Ore) - **Supply**: Overseas mines' shipments increased month - on - month, and the arrival volume at 45 ports slightly rebounded, slightly higher than last year's level. The total supply is relatively stable, and the sustainability of the shipment increase needs attention [2][7] - **Demand**: The profitability rate of steel enterprises decreased slightly, but is still at a high level year - on - year. Pig iron production increased slightly, and the possibility of short - term production cuts by steel enterprises due to profit reasons is small. Attention should be paid to the production restriction policy in the second half of the month [2][7] - **Inventory**: Iron ore ports are accumulating inventory, the number of stranded ships is decreasing, steel enterprises are slightly replenishing inventory, and the total inventory is slightly accumulating. The fundamental bearish drivers are limited, and the price is expected to oscillate in the future [2][7] 3.2 Carbon Element (Coking Coal and Coke) Coking Coal - **Supply**: Some coal mines in the production areas have resumed production, but some mines' production is still restricted due to accidents and other factors. Short - term supply disturbances will continue due to over - production verification and the "276 - working - day" policy. The short - term impact of the adjustment of the error threshold between the actual weight and declared weight of customs - cleared vehicles at the Ganqimaodu Port has basically dissipated, and the average daily customs clearance still exceeds 1,000 vehicles [2][12] - **Demand**: The seventh round of price increases for coke has started, profits are gradually recovering, production is slightly increasing, and the rigid demand for coking coal is strong. Downstream enterprises are mainly purchasing on demand, spot trading is weakening, and some coal mines have inventory accumulation, but overall, there is no obvious inventory pressure due to a large number of pre - sold orders [2][12] - **Outlook**: Supply disturbances will continue, and there is unlikely to be a significant increase in supply before the parade. The short - term fundamental contradiction is not prominent, and the short - term futures market still has support [2][12] Coke - **Supply**: After the sixth round of price increases was implemented, the overall profit of coke enterprises turned positive, production started to improve, and production increased slightly. However, some coke enterprises are still in a loss state, and the seventh round of price increases has started [11] - **Demand**: Downstream steel mills have good profits and are actively producing. Pig iron production increased slightly month - on - month. Under the weakening of the futures market, the purchasing enthusiasm of traders has decreased. Steel mills' inventory replenishment before the parade was active, and the arrival of goods has improved [11] - **Outlook**: As the parade approaches, there are continuous rumors of production restrictions for coke. The degree of production restriction for coke enterprises may be greater than that of steel mills. The short - term supply of coke will remain tight, and it will take time for the seventh round of price increases to be implemented. Attention should be paid to the impact of possible parade - related production restriction policies on the production and transportation of coke and steel enterprises [11] 3.3 Alloys (Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon) Manganese Silicon - **Cost**: Manganese silicon manufacturers pre - purchased raw material inventory before the parade, and the recent inventory replenishment is coming to an end. The trading atmosphere at ports is cooling down. With the increase in arrivals and rising supply pressure, the port ore price has started to decline from its high level [2][16] - **Supply - Demand**: Steel mills have good profits, and the output of finished steel is still at a high level. The resumption of production by manufacturers is continuing in an environment of profit recovery. The supply - demand relationship of manganese silicon may gradually become looser, and attention should be paid to the anti - involution policy related to specific production restriction requirements [2][16] - **Outlook**: The current market inventory pressure is limited, and the price is expected to oscillate in the short term due to cost support. However, supply pressure is gradually accumulating, and there may be downward pressure on the price in the medium - to - long term [16] Ferrosilicon - **Supply**: Industry profits have improved, and manufacturers' enthusiasm for resuming production has increased, leading to a gradual increase in ferrosilicon production. Attention should be paid to the anti - involution policy related to specific production restriction requirements [17] - **Demand**: Steel production remains high, and the demand for ferrosilicon in steelmaking is still resilient. In the metal magnesium sector, magnesium manufacturers are reluctant to lower prices, but downstream enterprises are trying to push down prices, and the magnesium ingot price remains stable overall [17] - **Outlook**: The current market inventory pressure is not large, and the price is expected to oscillate in the short term. However, the supply - demand gap is expected to narrow in the future, and there are hidden concerns in the fundamentals in the medium - to - long term. The upside potential of the price is not optimistic, and attention should be paid to the dynamics of the coal market and adjustments in electricity costs [17] 3.4 Glass - **Supply**: There is still one production line waiting to produce glass, and the overall daily melting volume is expected to remain stable. The upstream inventory is slightly accumulating, and there are many market sentiment disturbances [2][13] - **Demand**: In the off - season, demand is declining. Although the number of deep - processing orders has increased month - on - month, the number of days of raw glass inventory has increased significantly to a high for the year, indicating speculative purchasing by downstream enterprises. After the decline in the futures market, the sentiment in the spot market has cooled down, and the sales of intermediate and upstream products have declined significantly [13] - **Outlook**: The actual demand is weak, but policy expectations are strong, and raw material prices are relatively high. In the long term, market - oriented capacity reduction is still needed, and the price is expected to oscillate downward when returning to fundamental trading [13] 3.5 Soda Ash - **Supply**: The over - supply situation has not changed. Production is at a high level, and supply pressure persists. There is no short - term disturbance to production, and production is expected to continue to increase [15] - **Demand**: Heavy soda ash is expected to maintain rigid demand. There are still some ignition production lines that have not produced glass, and the daily melting volume of float glass is expected to be stable. The daily melting volume of photovoltaic glass is expected to bottom out, and the demand for heavy soda ash is flat. The downstream procurement of light soda ash is flat, but the overall inventory replenishment sentiment of downstream enterprises is weak, and they resist high prices [15] - **Outlook**: The over - supply pattern remains unchanged. After the increase in the futures market, spot trading is still weak. The price is expected to oscillate widely in the future, and the price center will decline in the long term to promote capacity reduction [15] 3.6 Steel - **Supply**: Last week, steel mills had both resumption and maintenance of production, and the output of rebar and hot - rolled coil changed little. There is a large amount of rebar delivery resources arriving at ports, and the inventory of rebar has increased significantly. The inventory accumulation of hot - rolled coil has slowed down, and the inventories of medium - thick plate and cold - rolled coil have increased. The apparent demand for the five major steel products has declined, and inventory is accumulating, showing off - season characteristics [7] - **Demand**: The speculative sentiment is poor, and the overall spot trading of steel is weak. The export orders for hot - rolled coil have improved, and domestic demand has some resilience [7] - **Outlook**: The fundamentals of steel are weakening marginally in the off - season. Both supply and demand will be affected around the parade. The blast furnace production restriction depends on air quality, and there may be shutdowns of construction sites and factories in Beijing and surrounding areas. The futures market may fluctuate more violently. The price is expected to oscillate widely in the short term, and future attention should be paid to steel mill production restriction and terminal demand [7] 3.7 Scrap Steel - **Supply**: The weekly arrival volume of scrap steel has increased slightly month - on - month, with narrow fluctuations during the week [9] - **Demand**: The profit of electric arc furnaces is acceptable, and daily consumption has increased to a new high for the year. In the blast furnace sector, pig iron production has increased, and the daily consumption of scrap steel in long - process production has also increased slightly. The total daily consumption of scrap steel in both long - and short - process production has increased slightly [9] - **Inventory**: The inventory in factories has decreased slightly, and the number of available inventory days has dropped to a relatively low level [9] - **Outlook**: The supply of scrap steel is stable, and demand is strong. The fundamentals are healthy, and the price is expected to oscillate [9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for key companies in the chemical industry, specifically recommending Shengquan Group, Hailide, Zhuoyue New Energy, and Ruile New Materials [4][5]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of identifying companies with strong performance in the first half of 2025, particularly those benefiting from AI capital investments and macroeconomic stability [1]. - The phosphate fertilizer export window is expected to open, with high demand anticipated to continue, suggesting a focus on large phosphate chemical companies like Yuntianhua [2]. - Safety incidents in the chemical industry are prompting increased scrutiny, which may lead to a rise in the agricultural chemicals sector as non-compliant capacities are phased out [3]. Summary by Sections Key Companies and Performance - Shengquan Group is highlighted as a major supplier of electronic resins for AI servers, with expected performance improvements due to rising server shipments, projecting an EPS of 1.53 in 2025 [4]. - Hailide, a leader in industrial polyester yarn, is also recommended, with an EPS forecast of 0.37 for 2025 [4]. - Zhuoyue New Energy is noted for its capacity growth and new product launches, with an EPS of 3.16 expected in 2025 [4]. - Ruile New Materials anticipates a 69.93% increase in net profit for the first half of 2025, driven by growth in its pharmaceutical segment [1][4]. Market Trends - The chemical industry index rose by 2.46% this week, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index [11]. - Key chemical products such as liquid chlorine, lithium carbonate, and lithium hydroxide saw significant price increases, with liquid chlorine prices rising by 92% [20][18]. Sub-industry Analysis - The polyester filament market is experiencing price fluctuations, with an average price of 6,735 CNY/ton for POY and 7,050 CNY/ton for FDY [22]. - The tire industry shows a slight increase in operating rates, with full steel tire rates at 60.06% and semi-steel tire rates at 69.11% [31]. - The refrigerant market remains stable, with R22 prices holding firm between 39,500 and 40,500 CNY/ton [40].

Group 1: Rubber Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not mentioned Core View The current rubber market lacks clear directional guidance, with long and short factors intertwined, and prices mainly fluctuate within a range. The 01 contract range is expected to be between 15,000 - 16,500 yuan/ton. Follow-up attention should be paid to the raw material supply during the peak production season in the main producing areas. If the raw material supply goes smoothly, consider shorting at high prices [1]. Summary by Directory - **Spot Price and Basis**: On August 18, the price of Yunnan state - owned whole latex in Shanghai increased by 150 yuan/ton to 14,900 yuan/ton, with a growth rate of 1.02%. The whole milk basis (switched to the 2509 contract) increased by 235 to - 920, with a growth rate of 20.35%. The price of Thai standard mixed rubber decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 14,600 yuan/ton, with a decline rate of 0.34% [1]. - **Monthly Spread**: The 9 - 1 spread increased by 25 to - 1035, with a growth rate of 2.36%; the 1 - 5 spread decreased by 15 to - 80, with a decline rate of 18.75%; the 5 - 9 spread decreased by 10 to 1130, with a decline rate of 0.88% [1]. - **Fundamentals**: In June, Thailand's rubber production increased by 120,400 tons to 392,600 tons, with a growth rate of 44.23%; Indonesia's production decreased by 24,100 tons to 176,200 tons, with a decline rate of 12.03%; India's production increased by 14,700 tons to 62,400 tons, with a growth rate of 30.82%; China's production increased by 6,800 tons to 103,200 tons. The weekly开工率 of semi - steel tires decreased by 2.28 to 72.07%, and that of all - steel tires increased by 2.09 to 63.09%. In June, domestic tire production decreased by 100% to 0, and tire export volume increased by 6340,000 to 66,650,000, with a growth rate of 10.51%. The total import volume of natural rubber increased by 10,000 tons to 463,400 tons, with a growth rate of 2.21% [1]. - **Inventory Change**: As of August 18, the bonded area inventory decreased by 11,918 to 619,852, with a decline rate of 1.89%. The factory warehouse futures inventory of natural rubber on the SHFE increased by 4,234 to 46,469, with a growth rate of 10.02% [1]. Group 2: Industrial Silicon Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not mentioned Core View Last week, the price of industrial silicon fluctuated strongly. It is recommended to try to go long at low prices. The main price fluctuation range is expected to be between 8,000 - 9,500 yuan/ton. If the price drops to the low level of 8,000 - 8,500 yuan/ton, consider going long at low prices. The main contract has shifted to SI2511 [3]. Summary by Directory - **Spot Price and Main Contract Basis**: On August 18, the price of East China oxygen - passing S15530 industrial silicon remained unchanged at 9,400 yuan/ton. The basis (based on oxygen - passing SI5530) increased by 200 to 795, with a growth rate of 33.61% [3]. - **Monthly Spread**: The 2509 - 2510 spread decreased by 5 to - 20, with a decline rate of 33.33%; the 2510 - 2511 spread increased by 5 to - 5, with a growth rate of 50.00%; the 2511 - 2512 spread remained unchanged at - 365; the 2512 - 2601 spread increased by 25 to 20, with a growth rate of 500.00%; the 2601 - 2602 spread decreased by 45 to - 30, with a decline rate of 300.00% [3]. - **Fundamentals**: In the monthly data, the national industrial silicon production increased by 10,600 tons to 338,300 tons, with a growth rate of 3.23%. Xinjiang's production decreased by 27,000 tons to 150,300 tons, with a decline rate of 15.21%. Yunnan's production increased by 24,900 tons to 41,200 tons, with a growth rate of 153.86%. Sichuan's production increased by 11,500 tons to 48,500 tons, with a growth rate of 31.05%. The national开工率 increased by 1.27 to 52.61%, with a growth rate of 2.47%. Xinjiang's开工率 decreased by 11.71 to 52.59%, with a decline rate of 18.21%. Yunnan's开工率 increased by 18.82 to 32.89%, with a growth rate of 133.76%. Sichuan's开工率 increased by 13.39 to 36.96%, with a growth rate of 56.81%. The production of silicone DMC decreased by 9,500 tons to 199,800 tons, with a decline rate of 4.54%. The production of polysilicon increased by 4,900 tons to 101,000 tons, with a growth rate of 5.10%. The production of recycled aluminum alloy increased by 1,000 tons to 625,000 tons, with a growth rate of 1.63%. The export volume of industrial silicon increased by 12,700 tons to 68,300 tons, with a growth rate of 22.77% [3]. - **Inventory Change**: The Xinjiang factory warehouse inventory increased by 0.01 to 11.70 tons, with a growth rate of 0.09%. The Yunnan factory warehouse inventory increased by 0.08 to 3.14 tons, with a growth rate of 2.61%. The Sichuan factory warehouse inventory decreased by 0.02 to 2.26 tons, with a decline rate of 0.88%. The social inventory decreased by 0.20 to 54.50 tons, with a decline rate of 0.37%. The order inventory increased by 0.06 to 25.36 tons, with a growth rate of 0.22%. The non - warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 0.26 to 29.15 tons, with a decline rate of 0.87% [3]. Group 3: Polysilicon Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not mentioned Core View Last week, the polysilicon price fluctuated strongly. It is expected to mainly fluctuate at a high level, with the lower limit of the price fluctuation range rising to 47,000 yuan/ton and the upper limit between 58,000 - 60,000 yuan/ton. Consider going long at low prices and try shorting by buying put options at high prices when the volatility is low [4]. Summary by Directory - **Spot Price and Basis**: On August 18, the average price of N - type re -投料 remained unchanged at 47,000 yuan/ton. The N - type material basis (average price) increased by 460 to - 5280, with a growth rate of 8.01% [4]. - **Futures Price and Monthly Spread**: The main contract price decreased by 460 to 52,280 yuan/ton, with a decline rate of 0.87%. The spread between the current month and the first - continuous contract increased by 50 to - 135, with a growth rate of 27.03%. The spread between the first - continuous and the second - continuous contract increased by 30 to 75, with a growth rate of 66.67% [4]. - **Fundamentals**: In the weekly data, the silicon wafer production increased by 0.08 to 12.10 GM, with a growth rate of 0.67%. The polysilicon production decreased by 0.01 to 2.93 tons, with a decline rate of 0.34%. In the monthly data, the polysilicon production increased by 0.49 to 10.10 tons, with a growth rate of 5.10%. The polysilicon import volume decreased by 0.02 to 0.08 tons, with a decline rate of 16.90%. The polysilicon export volume increased by 0.08 to 0.21 tons, with a growth rate of 66.17%. The net export volume of polysilicon increased by 0.10 to 0.13 tons, with a growth rate of 323.61%. The silicon wafer production decreased by 6.09 to 52.75 GM, with a decline rate of 10.35%. The silicon wafer import volume decreased by 0.01 to 0.07 tons, with a decline rate of 15.29%. The silicon wafer export volume decreased by 0.08 to 0.55 tons, with a decline rate of 12.97%. The net export volume of silicon wafer decreased by 0.07 to 0.48 tons, with a decline rate of 12.59%. The silicon wafer demand increased by 0.12 to 58.54 GM, with a growth rate of 0.21% [4]. - **Inventory Change**: The polysilicon inventory increased by 0.90 to 24.20 tons, with a growth rate of 3.86%. The silicon wafer inventory increased by 0.69 to 19.80 GM, with a growth rate of 3.61%. The polysilicon warehouse receipt increased by 220 to 5,820 hands, with a growth rate of 3.93% [4]. Group 4: Glass and Soda Ash Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not mentioned Core View - **Soda Ash**: The soda ash market has obvious over - supply. The inventory is in a re - accumulation pattern. It is recommended to try shorting at high prices. Follow - up attention should be paid to the implementation of policies and the load adjustment of soda ash plants [5]. - **Glass**: The near - month 09 contract of glass is weak, and the far - month 01 contract fluctuates. The overall spot price is difficult to increase further. The glass industry needs capacity clearance to solve the over - supply problem. Follow - up attention should be paid to the implementation of regional policies and the inventory preparation of downstream enterprises [5]. Summary by Directory - **Glass - related Price and Spread**: On August 18, the price of glass 2505 decreased by 7 to 1309 yuan/ton, with a decline rate of 0.53%. The price of glass 2509 decreased by 7 to 1046 yuan/ton, with a decline rate of 0.66%. The 05 basis increased by 7 to - 159, with a growth rate of 4.22% [5]. - **Soda Ash - related Price and Spread**: The price of soda ash 2505 decreased by 2 to 1450 yuan/ton, with a decline rate of 0.14%. The price of soda ash 2509 decreased by 1 to 1293 yuan/ton, with a decline rate of 0.07%. The 05 basis increased by 2 to - 100, with a growth rate of 1.96% [5]. - **Supply**: The soda ash production rate increased by 2.24% to 87.32%. The weekly production of soda ash increased by 1.7 tons to 76.13 tons, with a growth rate of 2.23%. The float glass daily melting volume remained unchanged at 159,600 tons. The photovoltaic daily melting volume remained unchanged at 89,290 tons [5]. - **Inventory**: The glass inventory increased by 157.9 to 6342.60 tons, with a growth rate of 2.55%. The soda ash factory warehouse inventory increased by 2.9 tons to 189.38 tons, with a growth rate of 1.54%. The soda ash delivery warehouse inventory increased by 1.7 tons to 46.66 tons, with a growth rate of 3.85%. The glass factory's soda ash inventory days remained unchanged at 23.4 days [5]. - **Real Estate Data**: The year - on - year growth rate of the newly - started area increased by 0.09% to - 0.09%. The growth rate of the construction area decreased by 2.43% to 0.05%. The growth rate of the completed area decreased by 0.03% to - 0.22%. The growth rate of the sales area decreased by 6.50% to - 6.55% [5]. Group 5: Log Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not mentioned Core View Last week, the log futures price showed a weak correction. It is recommended to go long at low prices. Pay attention to the support level around 800 yuan/ton [6]. Summary by Directory - **Futures and Spot Price**: On August 18, the 2509 log contract closed at 811 yuan/cubic meter, down 4 yuan/cubic meter from the previous day. The spot price of the main benchmark delivery products remained unchanged. The price of 3.9 - meter medium A radiata pine in Shandong was 750 yuan/cubic meter, and the price of 4 - meter medium A radiata pine in Jiangsu was 780 yuan/cubic meter. The new round of FOB price remained unchanged at 116 US dollars/JAS cubic meter [6]. - **Cost**: The RMB - US dollar exchange rate remained unchanged at 7.182. The import theoretical cost decreased by 0.04 to 818.62 yuan [6]. - **Port Shipment and Departure**: In July, the port shipment volume decreased by 2.7 to 173.3 million cubic meters, with a decline rate of 1.51%. The number of departure ships from New Zealand to China, Japan, and South Korea decreased by 6 to 47, with a decline rate of 11.32% [6]. - **Inventory**: As of August 15, the national coniferous log total inventory was 3.06 million cubic meters, a decrease of 20,000 cubic meters compared with August 8, with a decline rate of 0.65%. The inventory in Shandong decreased by 72,000 cubic meters to 1.854 million cubic meters, with a decline rate of 3.74%. The inventory in Jiangsu increased by 55,100 cubic meters to 983,000 cubic meters, with a growth rate of 5.95% [6]. - **Demand**: As of August 15, the national log daily average shipment volume was 63,300 cubic meters, a decrease of 900 cubic meters compared with August 8, with a decline rate of 1%. The shipment volume in Shandong decreased by 500 cubic meters to 35,900 cubic meters, with a decline rate of 1%. The shipment volume in Jiangsu increased by 600 cubic meters to 23,200 cubic meters, with a growth rate of 3% [6].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall atmosphere in the commodity market was weak yesterday, and the prices of finished steel products showed a weak and volatile trend. If the subsequent demand cannot be effectively repaired, steel prices may not maintain the current level, and the futures prices may gradually return to the supply - demand logic. Attention should be paid to the repair progress of terminal demand and the support of the cost side [4]. - The short - term price of iron ore may be slightly adjusted due to the weakening of terminal demand. It is necessary to pay attention to the subsequent shipping progress and the contradiction between high - level hot metal production and terminal demand [7]. - For ferrosilicon and manganese silicon, it is recommended that investment positions be mainly on the sidelines, while hedging positions can still participate opportunistically. The final price will move closer to the fundamentals after the sentiment fades, and it is necessary to pay attention to the changes in downstream terminal demand [8][9][10]. - Industrial silicon prices are expected to fluctuate weakly, and polysilicon prices are expected to fluctuate widely. Attention should be paid to the resumption of production in major production areas and the impact of policies [13][14][15]. - In the short term, glass and soda ash are expected to fluctuate. In the long term, glass prices follow macro - sentiment fluctuations, and soda ash prices are affected by supply - side and market sentiment under the "anti - involution" logic [17][18]. 3. Summary by Category Steel - **Prices and Positions**: The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3155 yuan/ton, down 33 yuan/ton (- 1.03%) from the previous trading day. The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3419 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton (- 0.58%) from the previous trading day. The positions of both decreased [3]. - **Fundamentals**: Rebar demand decreased significantly this week, inventory accumulation accelerated, while hot - rolled coil demand recovered significantly, and inventory accumulation slowed down. Both rebar and hot - rolled coil inventories are rising marginally, with high production but insufficient demand [4]. Iron Ore - **Prices and Positions**: The main contract of iron ore (I2601) closed at 772.00 yuan/ton, with a change of - 0.52% (- 4.00), and the position increased by 1577 hands to 44.89 million hands [6]. - **Fundamentals**: Overseas iron ore shipments and arrivals increased. The daily average hot - metal output increased, and port and steel mill inventories both increased. Terminal demand weakened, and short - term prices may be adjusted [7]. Ferrosilicon and Manganese Silicon - **Prices**: On August 18, the manganese silicon main contract (SM509) closed flat at 6026 yuan/ton, and the ferrosilicon main contract (SF511) fell 0.88% to 5880 yuan/ton [8]. - **Market Suggestion**: Investment positions are recommended to wait and see, while hedging positions can participate according to their own situation. The "anti - involution" sentiment still disturbs the market, and prices will gradually return to fundamentals [8][9]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Industrial Silicon** - **Prices and Positions**: The main contract of industrial silicon (SI2511) closed at 8605 yuan/ton, down 2.27% (- 200). The weighted contract position increased by 20923 hands to 552911 hands [12]. - **Fundamentals**: The problems of over - capacity, high inventory, and insufficient demand have not changed. The operating rate is expected to rise in August, and prices are expected to fluctuate weakly [13][14]. - **Polysilicon** - **Prices and Positions**: The main contract of polysilicon (PS2511) closed at 52280 yuan/ton, down 0.87% (- 460). The weighted contract position decreased by 1658 hands to 321203 hands [14]. - **Fundamentals**: The weekly output increased, inventory clearance was limited, and prices are expected to fluctuate widely [15]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass** - **Prices and Inventory**: The spot price in Shahe was 1160 yuan, down 4 yuan from the previous day. The national floating - glass inventory increased, and the inventory days increased. The market sentiment has been digested, and prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term [17]. - **Long - term Outlook**: In the long term, it follows macro - sentiment fluctuations, and if there are substantial real - estate policies, prices may rise [17]. - **Soda Ash** - **Prices and Inventory**: The spot price was 1260 yuan, down 20 yuan from the previous day. The total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers increased slightly. Prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term [18]. - **Long - term Outlook**: In the long term, under the "anti - involution" logic, prices are affected by supply - side and market sentiment, but the rise is limited by demand [18].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - The report presents the latest price, production and sales, and inventory data of glass and soda ash, reflecting the current market situation of these two industries [2][3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Glass - **Price Changes**: From August 11th to August 18th, the prices of various glass products showed different trends. For example, the price of 5mm large - plate glass from Shahe Anquan decreased from 1173.0 to 1164.0, a weekly decrease of 9.0; the FG09 contract price dropped from 1068.0 to 1030.0, a weekly decrease of 38.0 [3] - **Production and Sales**: Shahe's glass production and sales rate was 114, Hubei's was 85, East China's was 103, and South China's was 93 [3] - **Profit Situation**: The profits of different production methods and regions also changed. For instance, the profit of North China's coal - fired glass decreased from 247.8 to 229.2, a weekly decrease of 18.6; the 09FG disk natural gas profit decreased from - 300.0 to - 342.4, a weekly decrease of 42.4 [3] Soda Ash - **Price Changes**: From August 11th to August 18th, the prices of various soda ash products also had fluctuations. The price of Shahe heavy soda increased from 1240.0 to 1260.0, a weekly increase of 20.0; the SA05 contract price rose from 1400.0 to 1442.0, a weekly increase of 42.0 [3] - **Industry Situation**: The factory inventory of soda ash continued to accumulate slightly, and the heavy - soda delivery price in Hebei was about 1220, and about 1260 when delivered to Shahe. Downstream customers replenished at low prices but did not accept high - priced goods [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the soda ash price has rebounded from a low level since July, with the SA2601 contract showing a rebound of over 15% [1] - The pricing of soda ash in the first half of the year was mainly based on supply and demand, while in the second half, prices will be influenced by both supply-demand dynamics and policy expectations [1] - The soda ash fundamentals remain bearish due to continuously increasing production capacity and inventory, which exert significant downward pressure on prices [1] Group 2 - The "anti-involution" policy introduced in early July aims to curb disorderly competition and has led to a rebound in various domestic futures, including soda ash, driven by policy expectations [2] - Although the direct impact of the "anti-involution" on soda ash is currently limited, rising coal prices have slightly increased the cost of soda ash, alleviating some demand-side pressure [2] - The soda ash industry is undergoing a transition towards lower-cost production methods, with a trend of high-cost ammonia soda enterprises being phased out [2] Group 3 - The soda ash industry is entering an adjustment cycle starting in 2024, primarily due to high profits driving significant capacity expansion, with nearly 10 million tons of new capacity added in the past three years [3] - By the first half of 2025, an additional 2.1 million tons of soda ash capacity is expected to be added, leading to a supply growth rate that far exceeds demand growth [3] - As of mid-August 2025, the inventory of domestic soda ash production enterprises is approximately 1.89 million tons, indicating significant inventory pressure [3] Group 4 - Demand for soda ash is also weak, primarily due to adjustments in the real estate and photovoltaic industries, resulting in a notable decline in demand from the main downstream sectors [4] - As of mid-August 2025, the daily melting capacity of float glass and photovoltaic glass has decreased significantly compared to peak levels in 2024, indicating limited demand growth [4] - Although float glass prices have rebounded slightly, the overall demand for glass remains pessimistic due to the ongoing adjustment in the real estate sector [4]

Group 1 - The company focuses on "focusing on the main business, expanding the main business, and strengthening the main business" to optimize operational management and improve efficiency in response to market changes and challenges [1] - The future development trend of the soda ash industry is difficult to predict due to multiple factors such as supply-demand relationships and policy guidance [1] - The company does not have a dedicated market value management department, and its functions are handled by the securities affairs department. The stock price is influenced by various factors including macroeconomic conditions and market liquidity [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several companies including Xin Yang Feng, Sen Qi Lin, Rui Feng New Materials, China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation, Ju Hua Co., Yang Nong Chemical, China National Offshore Oil Corporation, and Sai Lun Tire [10]. Core Viewpoints - The report highlights significant price increases in industrial-grade lithium carbonate (up 22.06%) and sulfur (up 5.26%), while synthetic ammonia and butanone experienced substantial declines [4][20]. - The report suggests focusing on import substitution, pure domestic demand, and high-dividend opportunities due to the impact of renewed U.S. tariffs and geopolitical tensions affecting international oil prices [6][20]. - The overall chemical industry remains in a weak position, with mixed performance across sub-sectors, influenced by past capacity expansions and weak demand [23]. Summary by Sections Chemical Industry Investment Suggestions - Key products with notable price increases include industrial-grade lithium carbonate, sulfur, and urea, while synthetic ammonia and butanone saw significant price drops [4][20]. - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on sectors like glyphosate, fertilizers, and high-dividend assets amid a challenging market environment [23][24]. Price Trends and Market Dynamics - The report notes fluctuations in international oil prices, with Brent crude at $65.85 per barrel and WTI at $62.80 per barrel, reflecting a downward trend [6][20]. - The chemical product prices have shown some rebound, but many products still face price declines, indicating a mixed market sentiment [23][24]. Company Focus and Profit Forecasts - The report recommends companies like Jiangshan Co., Xingfa Group, and Yangnong Chemical, which are expected to enter a favorable economic cycle [8][23]. - It also highlights the potential of domestic fertilizer companies to meet local demand, with specific recommendations for companies like Hualu Hengsheng and Xin Yang Feng [23][24].

Report Summary Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoint Last week, the soda ash futures fluctuated upward, with the main contract SA2601 closing 4.73% higher than the previous week at 1395 yuan/ton. The spot price of heavy soda ash in Hebei Shahe also rose by 3.64%. The "anti-involution" policy sentiment faded, and the market returned to fundamentals. Supply is increasing, with expected weekly output close to 780,000 tons and an operating rate of 89%. Demand from downstream float and photovoltaic glass is weak, and inventory is at a historically high level. Overall, the soda ash fundamentals remain weak, and it is expected to fluctuate in the short term [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Soda Ash Futures and Spot Market - The main contract SA2601 closed at 1395 yuan/ton, up 4.73% from the previous week. The low-end price of heavy soda ash in Shahe was 1280 yuan/ton, up 3.64%. The main basis was -115 yuan/ton, up 18.56% [9]. 2. Soda Ash Spot Market - The low-end price of heavy soda ash in Hebei Shahe was 1280 yuan/ton, up 3.64% from the previous week [14]. 3. Fundamentals - Supply - Production profit: The profit of heavy soda ash using the North China ammonia-alkali method was -25.60 yuan/ton, and that of the East China co-production method was -41 yuan/ton, recovering from a historical low [17]. - Operating rate and production: The weekly industry operating rate was 87.32%, and the operating rate is expected to decline seasonally. The weekly output was 761,300 tons, including 429,700 tons of heavy soda ash, at a historical high. The weekly production heavy soda ash ratio was 56.44% [20][22][24]. - Capacity changes: From 2023 to 2025, there were significant new capacity additions in the soda ash industry, with a total planned new capacity of 1570 tons in these three years, and 100 tons actually put into production in 2025 [25]. 4. Fundamentals - Demand - Sales-to-production ratio: The weekly sales-to-production ratio of soda ash was 92.73% [28]. - Downstream demand: The daily melting volume of national float glass was 159,600 tons, with a stable operating rate of 75.34%. The price of photovoltaic glass continued to fall, and under the influence of the "anti-involution" policy, the industry cut production, with the in-production daily melting volume continuing a significant downward trend [32][38]. 5. Fundamentals - Inventory - The national soda ash inventory in factories was 1,893,800 tons, up 1.54% from the previous week, and the inventory was above the five-year average [41]. 6. Fundamentals - Supply and Demand Balance Sheet - The report provides the annual supply and demand balance sheet of soda ash from 2017 to 2024E, including data on effective capacity, production, operating rate, imports, exports, net imports, apparent supply, total demand, supply-demand gap, capacity growth rate, production growth rate, apparent supply growth rate, and total demand growth rate [42]. Influencing Factors Positive Factors - The peak summer maintenance season is approaching, and production will decline [5]. Negative Factors - Since 2023, the soda ash production capacity has expanded significantly, and there are still large production plans this year. The industry's production is at a historically high level [6]. - The heavy soda ash downstream photovoltaic glass has cut production, and the demand for soda ash has weakened [8]. - The "anti-involution" policy sentiment has faded [8]. Main Logic The supply of soda ash is at a high level, the terminal demand is declining, the inventory is at a high level in the same period, and the industry's supply-demand mismatch pattern has not been effectively improved [7].