1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The energy - chemical industry includes energy, polyolefins, polyesters, alkali chemicals, etc. It is recommended to construct option portfolio strategies mainly based on sellers, as well as spot hedging or covered strategies to enhance returns [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Overview of Underlying Futures - The latest prices, price changes, trading volumes, and open interest changes of various energy - chemical futures are presented, such as the latest price of crude oil SC2507 is 456, down 1 (-0.11%), with a trading volume of 15.70 million lots and an open interest of 3.13 million lots [3]. 3.2 Option Factors - Volume and Open Interest PCR - The volume and open interest PCR of various energy - chemical options are provided, which are used to describe the strength of the option underlying market and the turning point of the underlying market respectively. For example, the volume PCR of crude oil options is 0.97, down 0.09, and the open interest PCR is 0.86, up 0.07 [4]. 3.3 Option Factors - Pressure and Support Levels - The pressure and support levels of various energy - chemical options are analyzed from the perspective of the strike prices with the largest open interest of call and put options. For example, the pressure level of crude oil is 570 and the support level is 400 [5]. 3.4 Option Factors - Implied Volatility - The implied volatility of various energy - chemical options is presented, including at - the - money implied volatility and weighted implied volatility. For example, the at - the - money implied volatility of crude oil is 33.145%, and the weighted implied volatility is 36.56%, up 0.10% [6]. 3.5 Strategy and Recommendations 3.5.1 Energy - related Options - **Crude Oil**: Fundamentally, OPEC+ plans to increase supply, but the actual increase is limited, and US supply rebounds with oil prices. The market shows a short - term upward and then downward trend. Option factors indicate high implied volatility and weakening short - term power. Strategies include constructing a neutral call + put option combination for volatility, and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [7]. - **LPG**: Fundamentally, the high inventory may ease. The market is in a weak short - term trend. Option factors show that the implied volatility fluctuates around the historical average, and the short - term power is still weak. Strategies include constructing a short - biased call + put option combination for volatility, and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [9]. 3.5.2 Alcohol - related Options - **Methanol**: Fundamentally, port and enterprise inventories increase, and orders decrease. The market is in a weak downward trend. Option factors show that the implied volatility fluctuates around the historical average, and there is certain support below. Strategies include constructing a bear spread of put options for direction, a neutral call + put option combination for volatility, and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [9]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Fundamentally, port inventory is decreasing. The market shows a short - term upward and then downward trend. Option factors indicate high implied volatility and a strong short - term shock. Strategies include constructing a short - volatility strategy for volatility, and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [10]. 3.5.3 Polyolefin - related Options - **Polypropylene**: Fundamentally, the inventory of production enterprises and traders shows different trends. The market shows a short - term upward and then downward trend. Option factors show that the implied volatility fluctuates above the historical average, and the short - term power is weakening. Strategies include a long collar strategy for spot hedging [10]. 3.5.4 Rubber - related Options - **Rubber**: Fundamentally, the social inventory decreases. The market shows a short - term upward and then downward trend. Option factors show that the implied volatility fluctuates around the average, and the short - term power is weak. Strategies include constructing a bear spread of put options for direction, and a short - biased call + put option combination for volatility [11]. 3.5.5 Polyester - related Options - **PTA**: Fundamentally, the polyester load decreases, and the inventory and profit of different products vary. The market is in a long - term upward and high - level shock trend. Option factors show that the implied volatility is high, and the short - term power is strengthening. Strategies include constructing a long - biased call + put option combination for volatility [12]. 3.5.6 Alkali - related Options - **Caustic Soda**: Fundamentally, downstream replenishment supports the market, but the sustainability is uncertain. The market shows a short - term shock trend. Option factors show that the implied volatility is decreasing, and the short - term power is weak. Strategies include constructing a short - biased wide - straddle option combination for volatility, and a covered call strategy for spot hedging [13]. - **Soda Ash**: Fundamentally, production decreases and inventory increases. The market is in a weak downward trend. Option factors show that the implied volatility is rising, and the short - term power is weak. Strategies include constructing a bear spread of put options for direction, a neutral call + put option combination for volatility, and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [13]. 3.5.7 Urea - related Options - Fundamentally, the inventory increases, and the market sentiment cools down. The market shows a short - term upward and then downward trend. Option factors show that the implied volatility is decreasing, and the short - term long - term power is strong. Strategies include constructing a neutral call + put option combination for volatility, and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [14].

Group 1: Report Information - Date: May 27, 2025 [1] - Industry: Polyolefins [1] Group 2: Research Team - Peng Jinglin (Polyolefins) [2] - Li Jie, CFA (Crude Oil and Fuel Oil) [2] - Ren Junchi (PTA, MEG) [2] - Peng Haozhou (Urea, Industrial Silicon) [2] - Liu Youran (Pulp) [2] - Feng Zeren (Glass and Soda Ash) [2] Group 3: Futures Market Quotes - Plastic 2601: Opened at 7001 yuan/ton, closed at 7019 yuan/ton, highest 7057 yuan/ton, lowest 6994 yuan/ton, down 36 yuan/ton (-0.51%), with a position of 93379 and an increase of 3501 [3] - Plastic 2605: Opened at 7000 yuan/ton, closed at 7008 yuan/ton, highest 7050 yuan/ton, lowest 6995 yuan/ton, down 49 yuan/ton (-0.69%), with a position of 247 and an increase of 42 [3] - Plastic 2509: Opened at 7070 yuan/ton, closed at 7080 yuan/ton, highest 7118 yuan/ton, lowest 7055 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton (-0.56%), with a position of 513654 and a decrease of 2282 [3] - PP2601: Opened at 6908 yuan/ton, closed at 6885 yuan/ton, highest 6926 yuan/ton, lowest 6869 yuan/ton, down 36 yuan/ton (-0.52%), with a position of 64751 and an increase of 4340 [3] - PP2605: Opened at 6900 yuan/ton, closed at 6899 yuan/ton, highest 6955 yuan/ton, lowest 6890 yuan/ton, down 34 yuan/ton (-0.49%), with a position of 307 and an increase of 171 [3] - PP2509: Opened at 6945 yuan/ton, closed at 6929 yuan/ton, highest 6979 yuan/ton, lowest 6915 yuan/ton, down 48 yuan/ton (-0.69%), with a position of 492604 and an increase of 20629 [3] Group 4: Market Review and Outlook - L2509 opened lower, fluctuated downward during the session, and closed down at 7080 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton (-0.56%), with a trading volume of 33 lots and a position decrease of 2282 to 513654 lots [4] - PP main contract 09 closed at 6929 yuan/ton, down 48 yuan (-0.69%), with a position increase of 20600 lots to 492600 lots [4] - Supply side: Maintenance losses decreased month-on-month. As previously shut-down units restarted, supply pressure resumed, and new production capacity is expected to be put into operation in June [4] - Demand side: Downstream factories' inventory replenishment enthusiasm is average. The operating levels of some industries are basically flat, and new orders are scarce [4] - Market outlook: Tariff easing drove the futures price to rebound slightly, but supply pressure and lack of new orders in the off-season suppressed the market. Polyolefins are expected to consolidate weakly in the short term, and there is still downward pressure in the medium term due to the supply-demand imbalance [4] Group 5: Industry News - On May 26, 2025, the inventory of major producers was 840,000 tons, an increase of 45,000 tons (5.66%) from the previous working day, compared with 890,000 tons in the same period last year [5] - Domestic PP market declined slightly. Morning PP futures pressured market trading. Some regional enterprises lowered their factory prices, and the cost support weakened. Traders offered discounts to promote sales. Downstream terminals' willingness to enter the market was limited, and the morning inquiry atmosphere was weak. The mainstream price of North China drawstring was 7020 - 7200 yuan/ton, East China was 7030 - 7200 yuan/ton, and South China was 7110 - 7300 yuan/ton [5] - PE market prices declined slightly. In North China, some linear PE prices dropped by 10 - 90 yuan/ton, some high-pressure PE prices dropped by 20 - 100 yuan/ton, and some low-pressure PE prices dropped by 10 - 100 yuan/ton. In East China, some linear and high-pressure PE prices dropped by 20 - 100 yuan/ton, and some low-pressure PE prices dropped by 10 - 50 yuan/ton. In South China, some low-pressure PE prices fluctuated by 10 - 100 yuan/ton, some linear PE prices dropped by 10 - 80 yuan/ton, and some high-pressure PE prices dropped by 20 - 100 yuan/ton. The LLDPE price in North China was 7170 - 7400 yuan/ton, in East China was 7250 - 7700 yuan/ton, and in South China was 7350 - 7700 yuan/ton [5] Group 6: Data Overview - Figures include L basis, PP basis, L - PP spread, crude oil futures main contract settlement price, two - oil inventories, and two - oil inventory year - on - year change rate [7][11][14] - Data sources include Wind and Zhuochuang Information [8][10][12]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No information regarding report industry investment ratings is provided in the content. Core Views of the Report Chlor - Alkali Industry - **Caustic Soda**: Short - term supply pressure is limited during the concentrated maintenance period. Demand from the alumina industry is expected to increase. However, there are risks from non - aluminum demand pressure and rising valuations after cost reduction. It is recommended to wait and see on the single - side and try positive spreads for the 6 - 9 contracts [7]. - **PVC**: The recent rebound is due to macro - stimulus, export support, and supply - demand factors. But in the long - term, there is an obvious oversupply pressure, and potential negative factors exist. It is suggested to wait and see in the short - term and maintain a short - selling idea in the medium - term, with a resistance level of around 5100 for the 09 contract [7]. Crude Oil Industry - International oil prices are in a volatile trend, lacking strong drivers. The market is mainly affected by macro and supply factors. Short - term prices will continue to fluctuate, and the implied volatility is rising. In the medium - to - long - term, a trading - band strategy is recommended, and short - selling opportunities on rebounds can be observed. Attention should also be paid to the INE spread rebound opportunities and options' volatility - trading opportunities [12]. Styrene Industry - The recent rebound of styrene is due to tariff relief and low - inventory support. But high - price spot shows signs of weakness, and there are problems in the downstream and raw - material supply. It is expected to have more downward space, and the strategy is to short - sell at a high price around 7800 for the near - month contracts and pay attention to the widening opportunity of the EB - BZ spread [23]. Polyester Industry - **PX**: Supply is increasing, and the supply - demand situation is marginally weakening. It is relatively resistant to decline in the short - term. The strategy is to pay attention to the support at 6500 - 6600 and try a reverse spread for the 9 - 1 contracts [27]. - **PTA**: Supply - demand is marginally weakening, and the basis has declined. It is also relatively resistant to decline. The strategy is to pay attention to the support at 4600 and take a reverse - spread approach for the 9 - 1 contracts [27]. - **Ethylene Glycol (MEG)**: Supply is expected to contract, and inventory is decreasing. The strategy is to wait and see on the single - side and try a positive spread for the 9 - 1 contracts at a low price [27]. - **Short - fiber**: The processing fee may be repaired. The strategy is the same as PTA for the single - side, and the processing fee should be expanded at a low level [27]. - **Polyester Bottle - chip**: Supply and demand are both increasing, and the processing fee is low. The strategy is the same as PTA for the single - side, and the processing fee should be expanded at the lower limit of the 350 - 550 yuan/ton range [27]. Polyolefin Industry - For LLDPE and PP, the supply of LLDPE is expected to decrease in inventory before early June, while the supply pressure of PP will increase after late May. Demand lacks sustainability. The strategy is to short - sell PP at a high price and pay attention to the expansion of the LP spread [31]. Methanol Industry - The port inventory is at a turning point, and the supply is increasing while the demand is in the off - season. The 09 contract's supply - demand situation is more relaxed. The strategy is to short - sell around 2300 - 2350 with a target of around 2100, and the MTO spread should be operated within 0 - 500 [34]. Urea Industry - The supply is at a high level, while the demand is under pressure from the decline of compound - fertilizer plants and stagnant agricultural fertilization. The short - term market is likely to move in a range after the decline [38]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Chlor - Alkali Industry - **Prices**: On May 26, the 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong was 2687.5 yuan/ton (in 100% equivalent), and the 50% was 2840 yuan/ton. The PVC market prices in East China were 4760 yuan/ton for the calcium - carbide method and 5000 yuan/ton for the ethylene method [2]. - **Overseas Quotes and Export Profits**: For caustic soda, the FOB price at East China ports on May 22 was 405 dollars/ton, with an export profit of 32.1 yuan/ton. For PVC, the CFR price in Southeast Asia was 670 dollars/ton, and the export profit was 40.3 yuan/ton [3][4]. - **Supply**: The caustic - soda industry's operating rate on May 23 was 86.9%, and the PVC total operating rate was 73.1% [5]. - **Demand**: The alumina industry's operating rate on May 23 was 78%, and the PVC downstream pipe - making and profile - making operating rates were 45.3% and 39.6% respectively [6][7]. - **Inventory**: On May 22, the liquid - caustic soda inventory in East China factories was 19.1 tons, and the PVC upstream factory inventory was 38.7 tons [7]. Crude Oil Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: On May 27, Brent was 64.71 dollars/barrel, WTI was 61.47 dollars/barrel, and SC was 455.90 yuan/barrel. The Brent - WTI spread was 3.24 dollars/barrel [12]. - **Supply - Demand Factors**: The market is affected by OPEC+ production policies, geopolitical factors such as the US - Iran nuclear talks, and macro - economic policies [12]. Styrene Industry - **Upstream Prices**: On May 26, Brent crude oil (July) was 64.7 dollars/barrel, CFR Japan naphtha was 566 dollars/ton, and CFR Northeast Asia ethylene was 780 dollars/ton [20]. - **Spot and Futures**: The styrene spot price in East China on May 26 was 7825 yuan/ton, and the EB2506 futures price was 7341 yuan/ton [21]. - **Overseas Quotes and Import Profits**: The styrene CFR China price on May 26 was 896 dollars/ton, and the import profit was 271.5 yuan/ton [22]. - **Industry Operating Rates and Profits**: On May 23, the domestic pure - benzene comprehensive operating rate was 71.6%, and the styrene operating rate was 69.3% [23]. Polyester Industry - **Upstream Prices**: On May 26, Brent crude oil (July) was 64.74 dollars/barrel, CFR Japan naphtha was 566 dollars/ton, and CFR China PX was 834 dollars/ton [27]. - **Downstream Product Prices and Cash Flows**: On May 26, the POY150/48 price was 6990 yuan/ton, and the FDY150/96 price was 7275 yuan/ton [27]. - **Industry Operating Rates**: On May 23, the Asian PX operating rate was 69.4%, the PTA operating rate was 77.1%, and the polyester comprehensive operating rate was 95% [27]. Polyolefin Industry - **PE and PP Prices and Spreads**: On May 26, the L2505 closing price was 7008 yuan/ton, and the PP2505 closing price was 6888 yuan/ton [31]. - **Non - standard Prices**: The East China LDPE price on May 26 was 8930 yuan/ton [31]. - **Operating Rates and Inventories**: On May 23, the PE device operating rate was 78%, and the PP device operating rate was 76.8%. The PE enterprise inventory was 49.8 tons, and the PP enterprise inventory was 59.3 tons [31]. Methanol Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: On May 26, the MA2501 closing price was 2293 yuan/ton, and the regional spread between Taicang and Inner Mongolia's northern line was 338 yuan/ton [34]. - **Inventory**: On May 23, the methanol enterprise inventory was 33.401 tons, and the port inventory was 49 tons [34]. - **Operating Rates**: On May 23, the Shanghai - domestic enterprise operating rate was 74.51%, and the downstream MTO device operating rate was 75.7% [34]. Urea Industry - **Futures Prices and Spreads**: On May 26, the 01 - contract price was 1737 yuan/ton, and the spread between the 01 and 05 contracts was - 12 yuan/ton [38]. - **Upstream Raw Materials**: On May 26, the price of anthracite small pieces (Dangcheng) was 1000 yuan/ton, and the price of steam - coal at the pithead (Ejin Horo Banner) was 418 yuan/ton [38]. - **Supply - Demand Data**: On May 23, the domestic urea daily output was 20.48 tons, and the factory inventory was 91.74 tons [38].

数据来源：隆众资讯、Bloomberg、广发期货研究所。请仔细阅读报告尾端免责声明。 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于被广发期货有限公司认为可靠的已公开资料,但广发期货对这些信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证,本报告反映研究 人员的不同观点、见解及分析方法，并不代表广发期货或其附属机构的立场。在任何情况下，报告内容仅供参考，报告中的信息或所表达的意见 并不拘成所述品种买卖的出价或询价，投资者据此投资，风险自担。本报告旨在发送给广发期货特定客户及其他专业人士，版权归广发期货所 有,未经广发期货书面授权,任何人不得对本报告进行任何形式的发布、复制,如引用、刊发,需注明出处为'广发期货'。 宙 扬 Z0020680 | 原油价格及价差 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品中 | 5月26日 | 5月23日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | Brent | 65.25 | 64.78 | 0.47 | 0.73% | | | WIT | 62.00 | 61.53 | 0.47 | 0.76% | 美元/桶 | | ਟ | 456.80 | 4 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current oil prices will continue to fluctuate due to factors such as OPEC+ production increase discussions, non - compliance of some member countries, and the deadlock in US - Iran nuclear negotiations [1]. - The absolute price volatility of fuel oil (FU and LU) is expected to increase in the short term, and the strategy of narrowing the LU - FU spread can be continued [3]. - The absolute price volatility of asphalt (BU) is expected to increase in the short term. BU may be a relatively weak variety among oil products, and a strategy of shorting the cracking spread can be considered [3][5]. - PTA and ethylene glycol should be treated with a short - term oscillatory mindset [5]. - The price of natural rubber will oscillate in the short term [5][7]. - The price fluctuation of methanol may increase, and attention should be paid to MTO device复产 plans and Iranian device changes [7]. - Polyolefins are expected to maintain an oscillatory trend [7][9]. - The price of PVC is expected to oscillate weakly [9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Thursday, international oil prices fell for the third consecutive day. OPEC+ is discussing a possible large - scale production increase in July. Saudi Arabia warned non - compliant members. The US - Iran nuclear negotiation is at a deadlock, and the market is in a wait - and - see mood. The oil price will oscillate [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: On Thursday, the main contracts of fuel oil (FU2507) and low - sulfur fuel oil (LU2507) fell. Singapore and Fujeirah fuel oil inventories increased. The supply of low - sulfur fuel oil may be tight before June, and high - sulfur fuel oil inventory is being digested. The absolute price volatility of FU and LU is expected to increase, and the LU - FU spread has shown an inflection point [3]. - **Asphalt**: On Thursday, the main asphalt contract (BU2507) rose. This week, the shipment volume of domestic asphalt enterprises increased, and the capacity utilization rate of modified asphalt enterprises increased. Supply may rise in June, but some refineries may reduce production next week. Demand is supported in the north but weak in the south. The absolute price volatility of BU is expected to increase, and it may be a relatively weak variety [3][5]. - **Polyester**: TA509, EG2509, and PX futures contracts fell. The sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were light. An EO - EG联产 device stopped working, and two synthetic gas - to - ethylene glycol devices in Henan will be shut down for maintenance. PX supply supports PXN, and PTA devices are restarting. Polyester operating load is high, and ethylene glycol port inventory is expected to decrease. Both PTA and ethylene glycol should be treated with an oscillatory mindset [5]. - **Rubber**: On Thursday, the main rubber contracts (RU2509, NR, BR) showed different trends. The operating load of domestic tire enterprises decreased. The low production at the beginning of rubber tapping and rainfall in overseas production areas support raw material prices. Rubber imports increased, and Qingdao inventory decreased slightly. The price of natural rubber will oscillate [5][7]. - **Methanol**: Supply has decreased due to domestic device maintenance but is still at a high level in the past five years. Iranian device load has dropped, and the expected arrival volume in the far - month is expected to decrease, but the short - term arrival volume is recovering. MTO device operation has not changed much, and port and inland inventories are low. The price fluctuation of methanol may increase [7]. - **Polyolefins**: The prices of polypropylene (PP) and polyethylene (PE) showed different trends. There are many upstream maintenance activities, and supply pressure is not large. Demand has increased due to tariff reduction, and inventory has decreased. However, both inventory and supply are at high levels, and polyolefins are expected to maintain an oscillatory trend [7][9]. - **Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC)**: On Thursday, the PVC market prices in East, North, and South China showed different trends. Maintenance devices will resume production, and new maintenance is limited, so production is expected to increase. Domestic real - estate construction is stable, but demand will weaken in the off - season. The price of PVC is expected to oscillate weakly [9]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the basis data of various energy - chemical products on May 23, 2025, including spot price, futures price, basis, basis rate, price change rate, and the quantile of the latest basis rate in historical data [10]. 3.3 Market News - OPEC+ is discussing a possible large - scale production increase in the June 1 meeting, and a daily production increase of 411,000 barrels in July is one of the options under discussion [13]. - Turkey's imports of Urals crude oil will increase in May as its top refinery Tupras has resumed purchasing Russian crude oil, which is traded below the Western price cap of $60 per barrel [13]. 3.4 Chart Analysis - **4.1 Main Contract Prices**: The report presents the closing price charts of main contracts of various energy - chemical products from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, LPG, PTA, ethylene glycol, etc. [15][16][17] - **4.2 Main Contract Basis**: The report shows the basis charts of main contracts of various energy - chemical products, such as crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, etc. [30][32][39] - **4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads**: The report provides the spread charts of inter - period contracts of various energy - chemical products, including fuel oil, asphalt, PTA, ethylene glycol, etc. [45][47][50] - **4.4 Inter - variety Spreads**: The report presents the spread and ratio charts of different varieties of energy - chemical products, such as crude oil internal - external spreads, fuel oil high - low sulfur spreads, BU/SC ratio, etc. [60][62][65] - **4.5 Production Profits**: The report shows the production profit charts of various energy - chemical products, including ethylene - based ethylene glycol, PP, LLDPE, etc. [68][72] 3.5 Team Member Introduction - **Zhong Meiyan**: Assistant Director of the Research Institute and Director of Energy - Chemical Research, with a master's degree from Shanghai University of Finance and Economics. She has won multiple awards and has over ten years of experience in futures derivatives market research [74]. - **Du Bingqin**: Analyst for crude oil, natural gas, fuel oil, asphalt, and shipping, with a master's degree in applied economics from the University of Wisconsin - Madison. She has won multiple awards and has in - depth research on the energy industry [75]. - **Di Yilin**: Analyst for natural rubber and polyester, with a master's degree in finance. She has won multiple awards and is good at data analysis [76]. - **Peng Haibo**: Analyst for methanol, PE, PP, and PVC, with a master's degree in engineering from China University of Petroleum (East China) and a mid - level economist title [77]. 3.6 Contact Information - Company address: Unit 703, 6th Floor, No. 729 Yanggao South Road, China (Shanghai) Pilot Free Trade Zone - Company phone: 021 - 80212222 - Fax: 021 - 80212200 - Customer service hotline: 400 - 700 - 7979 - Zip code: 200127 [79]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The energy - chemical sector is divided into energy, alcohols, polyolefins, rubber, polyesters, alkalis, and others. Strategies mainly focus on building option combinations based on different varieties' fundamentals and market trends to enhance returns and hedge risks [2][8]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Overview - The latest prices, price changes, trading volumes, and open interest changes of various energy - chemical futures are presented, such as the latest price of crude oil futures SC2507 being 463, down 5 with a decline of 1.09%, trading volume of 155,000 lots, and open interest of 29,100 lots [3]. 3.2 Option Factor Analysis 3.2.1 Volume - Open Interest PCR - The volume and open - interest PCR of various energy - chemical options are provided, along with their changes. For example, the volume PCR of crude oil options is 0.80, an increase of 0.05; the open - interest PCR is 0.81, an increase of 0.06 [4]. 3.2.2 Pressure and Support Levels - The pressure and support levels of various energy - chemical options are analyzed from the perspective of the maximum open interest of call and put options. For instance, the pressure level of crude oil is 570, and the support level is 400 [5]. 3.2.3 Implied Volatility - The implied volatility data of various energy - chemical options are presented, including at - the - money implied volatility, volume - weighted implied volatility, and its changes. For example, the at - the - money implied volatility of crude oil is 28.845%, and the volume - weighted implied volatility is 31.90%, an increase of 0.18% [6]. 3.3 Strategy and Recommendations 3.3.1 Energy - Related Options - **Fundamentals and Market Analysis**: OPEC+ plans to increase supply, but actual exports have not significantly increased. US shale oil production has rebounded. Crude oil prices have shown a pattern of short - term recovery followed by a decline [7]. - **Option Factor Research**: Implied volatility is at a relatively high level, and the open - interest PCR is below 0.80, indicating a release of short - term bearish forces. The pressure level is 570, and the support level is 400 [7]. - **Option Strategies**: Construct a neutral short - call + short - put option combination strategy for volatility, and a long - collar strategy for spot long - position hedging [7]. 3.3.2 Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) Options - **Fundamentals and Market Analysis**: Saudi CP expectations for propane and butane in June and July are rising. LPG prices have been in a wide - range rectangular shock and are gradually weakening [9]. - **Option Factor Research**: Implied volatility fluctuates around the historical average, and the open - interest PCR is around 0.80, indicating a weak market. The pressure level is 4600, and the support level is 3900 [9]. - **Option Strategies**: Build a short - biased put + call option combination strategy for volatility, and a long - collar strategy for spot long - position hedging [9]. 3.3.3 Methanol Options - **Fundamentals and Market Analysis**: Port inventories are decreasing, and enterprise inventories are increasing. Methanol prices have shown a pattern of recent increase followed by a decline [9]. - **Option Factor Research**: Implied volatility fluctuates around the historical average, and the open - interest PCR is above 1.00, indicating support below. The pressure level is 2950, and the support level is 2050 [9]. - **Option Strategies**: Construct a bull - spread strategy for call options, a neutral short - call + short - put option combination strategy for volatility, and a long - collar strategy for spot long - position hedging [9]. 3.3.4 Ethylene Glycol Options - **Fundamentals and Market Analysis**: Port inventories are decreasing, and the market is in a de - stocking pattern. Ethylene glycol prices have shown a short - term bullish trend [10]. - **Option Factor Research**: Implied volatility is at a relatively high level, and the open - interest PCR is around 1.00, indicating a strong shock. The pressure level is 4700, and the support level is 4400 [10]. - **Option Strategies**: Construct a bull - spread strategy for call options, a short - volatility strategy, and a long - collar strategy for spot long - position hedging [10]. 3.3.5 Polypropylene (PP) Options - **Fundamentals and Market Analysis**: PP production enterprise inventories are decreasing, and trade inventories are increasing. PP prices have shown a pattern of recent increase followed by a decline [10]. - **Option Factor Research**: Implied volatility fluctuates above the historical average, and the open - interest PCR is below 1.00. The pressure level is 7500, and the support level is 6800 [10]. - **Option Strategies**: Construct a bull - spread strategy for call options and a long - collar strategy for spot long - position hedging [10]. 3.3.6 Rubber Options - **Fundamentals and Market Analysis**: Natural rubber inventories are slightly increasing. Rubber prices have shown a pattern of recent increase followed by a decline [11]. - **Option Factor Research**: Implied volatility fluctuates around the average, and the open - interest PCR is below 0.60. The pressure level is 21000, and the support level is 13500 [11]. - **Option Strategies**: Construct a bull - spread strategy for call options and a neutral short - call + short - put option combination strategy for volatility [11]. 3.3.7 PTA Options - **Fundamentals and Market Analysis**: PTA and polyester loads are increasing. PTA prices have shown a bullish trend and high - level shock [12]. - **Option Factor Research**: Implied volatility is at a relatively high level, and the open - interest PCR is above 1.00, indicating a strengthening market. The pressure level is 5000, and the support level is 3800 [12]. - **Option Strategies**: Construct a bull - spread strategy for call options and a long - biased short - call + short - put option combination strategy for volatility [12]. 3.3.8 Caustic Soda Options - **Fundamentals and Market Analysis**: Downstream alumina production cuts are expanding, and caustic soda inventories are increasing. Caustic soda prices have shown a short - term shock [13]. - **Option Factor Research**: Implied volatility is decreasing, and the open - interest PCR is below 0.60, indicating a weak market. The pressure level is 2600, and the support level is 2400 [13]. - **Option Strategies**: Construct a short - strangle option combination strategy for volatility and a covered - call strategy for spot long - position hedging [13]. 3.3.9 Soda Ash Options - **Fundamentals and Market Analysis**: Soda ash production and inventories are increasing, and glass production is low. Soda ash prices have shown a weak bearish trend [13]. - **Option Factor Research**: Implied volatility is at a relatively high level, and the open - interest PCR is below 0.50, indicating a weak shock. The pressure level is 1400, and the support level is 1220 [13]. - **Option Strategies**: Construct a bear - spread strategy for put options, a neutral short - call + short - put option combination strategy for volatility, and a long - collar strategy for spot long - position hedging [13]. 3.3.10 Urea Options - **Fundamentals and Market Analysis**: Urea enterprise inventories are decreasing, and pre - orders are increasing. Urea prices have shown a pattern of increase followed by a shock [14]. - **Option Factor Research**: Implied volatility is at a relatively low level, and the open - interest PCR is above 1.00, indicating a strong bullish force. The pressure level is 1960, and the support level is 1700 [14]. - **Option Strategies**: Construct a bull - spread strategy for call options, a neutral short - call + short - put option combination strategy for volatility, and a long - collar strategy for spot long - position hedging [14].

Gasoil月差结构(美元/吨) 50 25 40 20 15 10 5 0 0 -10 r -20 -10 -30 -15 202502 202505 2025 3DSCO2 1500 205504 707585 MI-M6 - M1-M6 - 41-M2 MI-M9 M1-M2 - - M1-M3 - - M1-M9 M1-M3 321裂解价差(美元/桶) 532裂解价差 (美元/桶) 70.00 70.00 60.00 60.00 50.00 50.00 40.00 40.00 30.00 30.00 20.00 20.00 10.00 10.00 000 0.00 1月 2月 3月 4月 5月 6月 7月 8月 9月 10月 11月 12月 1月 2月 3月 4月 5月 6月 7月 8月 9月 10月 11月 12月 - 2025 -2022 -- 2023 -- 2024 -- 2024 -- 2024 -- -2021 - -2022 -- 2023 -- 2024 -- 202 -2021 - - 2025 亚洲石脑油裂解 (美元/桶) | 美国汽油裂解 (美元/桶) 20.00 70.00 1 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The energy - chemical sector is divided into energy, alcohols, polyolefins, rubber, polyesters, alkalis, and others. For each sector, options strategies and suggestions are provided for selected varieties. Each option variety's strategy report includes analysis of the underlying market, research on option factors, and option strategy recommendations [8]. - The overall strategy is to construct option portfolio strategies mainly as sellers, along with spot hedging or covered strategies to enhance returns [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Overview - The report presents the latest prices, price changes, price change rates, trading volumes, volume changes, open interests, and open interest changes of various energy - chemical option underlying futures contracts, such as crude oil, liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), methanol, etc. For example, the latest price of crude oil SC2507 is 468, with a price increase of 3 and a price change rate of 0.69% [3]. 3.2 Option Factors - Volume and Open Interest PCR - The volume and open interest PCR of various option varieties are provided. The volume PCR and open interest PCR are used to describe the strength of the option underlying market and the turning point of the underlying market respectively. For example, the volume PCR of crude oil is 0.75 with a change of - 0.23, and the open interest PCR is 0.75 with a change of - 0.00 [4]. 3.3 Option Factors - Pressure and Support Levels - From the perspective of the strike prices with the largest open interest of call and put options, the pressure and support levels of option underlying are analyzed. For example, the pressure level of crude oil is 570 and the support level is 400 [5]. 3.4 Option Factors - Implied Volatility - The report shows the at - the - money implied volatility, weighted implied volatility, change in weighted implied volatility, annual average implied volatility, call implied volatility, put implied volatility, 20 - day historical volatility, and the difference between implied and historical volatility of various option varieties. For example, the at - the - money implied volatility of crude oil is 28.69%, and the weighted implied volatility is 31.72% with a change of - 1.34% [6]. 3.5 Strategy and Suggestions for Each Option Variety 3.5.1 Energy - related Options - **Crude Oil**: Fundamentally, OPEC+ plans to increase supply, but the actual increase is limited, and US shale oil production has recovered. The market has shown a pattern of short - term recovery followed by a decline. Option strategies include constructing a short neutral call + put option combination strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [7]. - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG)**: The expected Saudi CP prices are rising. The market is in a weak and bearish state. Strategies involve constructing a short bearish call + put option combination strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [9]. 3.5.2 Alcohol - related Options - **Methanol**: Port inventory is decreasing, and the market has shown a pattern of recent increase followed by a decline. Strategies include a bull call spread strategy, a short neutral call + put option combination strategy, and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [9]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Port inventory is decreasing, and the market is in a short - term bullish state. Strategies include a bull call spread strategy, a short volatility strategy, and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [10]. 3.5.3 Polyolefin - related Options - **Polypropylene**: PP production enterprise inventory is decreasing, and the market has shown a pattern of recent increase followed by a decline. Strategies include a bull call spread strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [10]. 3.5.4 Rubber - related Options - **Rubber**: Natural rubber social inventory has a slight increase. The market has shown a pattern of recent increase followed by a decline. Strategies include a bull call spread strategy and a short neutral call + put option combination strategy [11]. 3.5.5 Polyester - related Options - **PTA**: PTA and polyester loads are rising. The market is in a bullish state with high - level fluctuations. Strategies include a bull call spread strategy and a short bullish call + put option combination strategy [12]. 3.5.6 Alkali - related Options - **Caustic Soda**: Downstream demand is weak, and inventory pressure is high. The market is in a short - term volatile state. Strategies include a short bearish strangle option combination strategy and a covered call strategy for spot hedging [13]. - **Soda Ash**: The start - up rate is decreasing, and inventory is rising. The market is in a weak bearish state. Strategies include a bear put spread strategy, a short neutral call + put option combination strategy, and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [13]. 3.5.7 Other Options - **Urea**: Enterprise inventory is decreasing, and the market has shown a pattern of recent increase followed by a shock. Strategies include a bull call spread strategy, a short neutral call + put option combination strategy, and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [14]. 3.6 Option Charts - For each option variety, there are price trend charts, volume and open interest charts, open interest PCR and trading volume PCR charts, implied volatility charts, historical volatility cone charts, and charts showing pressure and support levels, providing visual data for market analysis [16][37][57] etc.

Report Information - Report Title: Polyolefin Daily Report [1] - Date: May 21, 2025 [2] Core Viewpoint - On May 20, 2025, the main contracts of plastic and PP in the futures market closed down. The supply side has short - term pressure due to intensive upstream petrochemical maintenance, and the demand side has weak downstream indicators. Although there may be some improvement in demand, the polyolefin market is mainly digesting the previous gains [5][7]. Market Quotes Futures Market - L2509 of plastics opened low, fluctuated downward during the session, and closed down at 7222 yuan/ton, down 24 yuan/ton (-0.33%), with a trading volume of 310,000 lots, and the open interest decreased by 2,179 to 511,907 lots. PP2509 closed at 7047 yuan/ton, down 46 yuan (-0.65%), and the open interest increased by 12,000 lots to 426,777 lots [5][7]. - Other contracts such as plastic 2601, 2605, PP2601, and PP2605 also showed different degrees of decline [7]. Spot Market - The domestic PP market continued to operate weakly, with a decline of 10 - 30 yuan/ton. The PE market price continued to decline slightly, with different price changes in different regions and varieties [7]. Supply and Demand Analysis Supply Side - Upstream petrochemical maintenance is intensive, and the short - term supply pressure is obvious. The maintenance loss is at a high level compared with the same period. PE plans to add 700,000 tons of production capacity from May to June, and the supply pressure will be realized in the third quarter. PP has no production plan in May, and attention should be paid to the commissioning of Sinopec Zhenhai Refining and Chemical's plant in June [5]. Demand Side - The demand for agricultural films has changed from strong to weak, and the operating loads of packaging, film, injection molding, etc. have decreased month - on - month. The indicators of PP downstream fields are weaker than those of the same period last year. Some enterprises that suspended production due to high tariffs have resumed operation, and the phenomenon of rush - export within the 90 - day buffer period may drive the demand to improve [5]. Future Outlook - As the macro - sentiment fades, plastics and PP have risen and then fallen back. There is still pressure in the upper gap. Although the spot atmosphere has warmed up, the actual high - price transactions are limited. The improvement of orders from downstream product manufacturers remains to be seen, and polyolefins are mainly digesting the previous gains [5].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of maintaining a stable and positive economic environment in China amidst a turbulent international situation, advocating for a moderately loose monetary policy to support effective financing needs of the real economy [1]. Group 1: Market Overview - The US stock indices experienced slight declines, with the beauty care sector leading gains and the defense sector lagging [2][8]. - The total trading volume in the market reached 1.21 trillion yuan, with notable increases in financing balances [2][8]. - Current valuation levels of major indices in China remain low, suggesting a favorable cost-performance ratio for medium to long-term capital allocation [2][8]. Group 2: Bond Market - The yield on the 10-year government bond rose to 1.665%, with a net injection of 177 billion yuan by the central bank [3][9]. - The LPR was lowered by 10 basis points, indicating a shift towards a more accommodative monetary policy [5][9]. - The overall economic environment is still in a transition phase, with real estate investment continuing to decline [3][9]. Group 3: Commodity Insights - Copper prices saw an increase, driven by stable domestic demand and growth in power investment [3][16]. - Gold imports in China surged by 73% in April, reaching a new high for the past 11 months, indicating strong demand in the precious metals market [6]. - The aluminum market is facing potential supply issues due to geopolitical factors, while nickel prices are expected to remain stable amid tight supply conditions [19][20]. Group 4: Agricultural Products - The soybean market is experiencing a recovery in supply due to increased imports, while domestic soybean meal supply is expected to rise significantly [26]. - Corn prices are on a downward trend, influenced by high inventory levels and weak downstream demand [27]. - Cotton prices are fluctuating due to macroeconomic factors and ongoing trade negotiations, with a focus on new order developments [28]. Group 5: Shipping Index - The European shipping index is experiencing fluctuations, with recent price adjustments reflecting a return to fundamental market conditions [29].